Power system analysis device, power system analysis method, and program

Abstract

To provide a power system analysis device capable of supporting an examination about the introduction of renewable energy to a power system in future.SOLUTION: A power system analysis device comprises: a data acquisition section which acquires scenario data and weather data; a renewable energy output calculation section which calculates a renewable energy power generation amount in a power supply area on a future cross section; an energy demand amount calculation section which calculates an energy demand amount in the power supply area on the future cross section; a power source output calculation section which calculates a power generation amount of another power generation facility; a system analysis model construction section which constructs a system analysis model; and a data analysis section which uses the system analysis model to compute a tide value of a power system, computes the stability of power transmission based on the tide value, groups vector data indicating a computation result of the tide value, and evaluates a relation between the group of the vector data and the stability.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] An embodiment of the present invention relates to a power system analysis device, a power system analysis method, and a program. [Background technology]

[0002] The master plan of the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators (OCCTO) proposes necessary facility reinforcement measures from the perspective of cost-effectiveness, assuming multiple scenarios based on the amount of renewable energy introduced and its bias. However, a quantitative understanding of the uncertainty of renewable energy and demand (output fluctuations and bias, etc.) and the grid issues that may arise as a result of this (reduction in inertia, bias, stability, etc.) is an issue that needs to be considered in the future. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Patent Publication No. 2022-94441 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] An object of the present invention is to provide a power system analysis device, a power system analysis method, and a program capable of supporting the study of the future introduction of renewable energy into a power system. [Means for solving the problem]

[0005] The power system analysis device according to one embodiment includes a data acquisition unit that acquires scenario data indicating time-series data related to analysis conditions of the power system and meteorological data of a power supply area of ​​the power system; a renewable energy output calculation unit that calculates the amount of renewable energy power generation in a power supply area in a future cross-section using meteorological data; an energy demand calculation unit that calculates an energy demand in a power supply area in a future cross section by using scenario data or meteorological data; A power output calculation unit that calculates the amount of power generated by power generation facilities other than the renewable energy power generation device based on the amount of renewable energy power generation and the amount of energy demand; A system analysis model construction unit that constructs a system analysis model for analyzing a power system based on the renewable energy power generation amount, the energy demand amount, and the power generation amount of other power generation facilities; The system includes a data analysis unit that performs a power flow analysis to calculate the power flow values ​​of the power system using a system analysis model, performs a stability analysis to calculate the stability of power transmission based on the power flow values, groups vector data indicating the calculation results of the power flow values ​​for each future cross section, and evaluates the relationship between the group of vector data and the stability. Effect of the Invention

[0006] According to this embodiment, it is possible to support the study of the introduction of renewable energy into the power grid in the future. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0007] [Figure 1] 1 is a block diagram showing a schematic configuration of a power system analysis device according to a first embodiment. [Diagram 2] 1 is a diagram of a target facility of system analysis-based model data. [Diagram 3] FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of node data in a certain future cross section. [Figure 4] FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of branch data at a certain future cross section. [Diagram 5] FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of trans data in a future cross section. [Figure 6] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of generator data in a certain future cross section. [Figure 7]4 is a flowchart showing a procedure of an analysis operation of a power system by the power system analysis device according to the first embodiment. [Figure 8] FIG. 13 is a diagram for explaining an example of a method for converting wind speed into power generation amount. [Figure 9] 11 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure when the amount of renewable energy power generation exceeds the facility capacity. [Figure 10] FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating an example of a power flow calculation result of a node. [Figure 11] FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an example of a power flow calculation result of a branch. [Figure 12] FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an example of clustering of power flow calculation results. [Figure 13] FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of an evaluation result of the stability of a power system. [Figure 14] FIG. 13 is a schematic diagram of a power system according to the present modification. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0008] DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. The present invention is not limited to the following embodiments.

[0009] (First embodiment) Fig. 1 is a block diagram showing a schematic configuration of a power system analysis device according to a first embodiment. The power system analysis device 1 shown in Fig. 1 includes a data acquisition unit 10, a calculation unit 20, a storage unit 30, and a data output unit 40. The power system analysis device 1 analyzes the results of power flow calculation for a future time (future time) in the power system in association with the stability of power supply. Each unit will be described below.

[0010] The data acquisition unit 10 acquires scenario data D11, renewable energy introduction amount data D12, weather data D13, generator specification data D14, and system analysis base model data D15. For example, the data acquisition unit 10 acquires these data from external organizations or external systems via a network. Here, each data will be described.

[0011] The scenario data D11 indicates time-series data related to the analysis conditions of the power system. The scenario data D11 indicates, for example, the total capacity of renewable energy power generation facilities, the demand scale of the power supply area of ​​the power system, the storage battery equipment capacity, the power source configuration, and the like in a time series. The renewable energy power generation facilities include, for example, solar power generation facilities and wind power generation facilities. The storage battery equipment may include, for example, a storage battery mounted on an EV (Electric Vehicle). The power source configuration indicates, for example, the ratio of the power generation amount of the renewable energy power generation facilities to other power generation facilities excluding the renewable energy power generation facilities. The other power generation facilities include, for example, thermal power generation facilities, hydroelectric power generation facilities, and nuclear power generation facilities.

[0012] The renewable energy introduction amount data D12 indicates the amount of introduced renewable energy by point in the power supply area in a time series. The amount of introduced renewable energy at each point corresponds to the amount of introduced renewable energy at each substation installed in the power supply area, for example.

[0013] The weather data D13 includes at least one of, for example, Japan Meteorological Agency forecast data, weather forecast Grid Point Value (GPV) data, weather forecast SCW site (Super C Weather) data, meteorological reanalysis data such as ERA-5, and data of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) analysis results such as numerical weather models. The Japan Meteorological Agency forecast data is data predicted by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The weather forecast GPV data is past and future weather forecast data calculated by a supercomputer at grid points preset on a map. The ERA-5 data is data used for weather forecasting by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The WRF is a forecast model for predicting wind conditions such as wind speed and wind direction. In this embodiment, the weather data D13 is ERA-5 data.

[0014] The generator specification data D14 is data related to the characteristics of the generator installed in the power supply area. The generator specification data D14 indicates, for example, an output upper limit value, an output lower limit value, a ramp rate, a fuel cost, a start-up cost, a start-up / stop time, a water storage amount (amount of pumping), etc.

[0015] The system analysis base model data D15 is data related to target facilities of the system analysis such as nodes, branches, transformers, generators, and loads of the power system. Here, the system analysis base model data D15 will be further explained with reference to the drawings.

[0016] 2 is a diagram of the target facility of the system analysis base model data D15. In this diagram, nodes 101, transformers 102, branches 103, loads 104, and generators 105 are illustrated in the same manner as in the actual topology of the power system.

[0017] The node 101 corresponds to a substation or a switchyard. At least one of a transformer 102, a load 104, and a generator 105 is connected to the node 101. The transformer 102 is disposed between two nodes 101. The transformer 102 transforms a voltage input from one node 101 to a predetermined voltage and outputs the voltage to the other node 101. The branch 103 is a transmission line connecting the two nodes 101. The load 104 is a consumer that consumes power, or a renewable energy power generation device that supplies power to the power system. The generator 105 is, for example, a synchronous generator that is driven synchronously with another generator 105.

[0018] In this embodiment, the data acquiring unit 10 acquires the system analysis base model data D15 of the future cross section for each of the node 101, the transformer 102, the branch 103, and the generator 105. That is, the data acquiring unit 10 acquires the system analysis base model data D15 along a future time series.

[0019] Fig. 3 is a diagram showing an example of node data in a certain future cross section. In the node data D15a shown in Fig. 3, the output values ​​of active power and reactive power are shown for the generator 105 and the load 104 connected to each node 101 identified by the node name. In addition, the node data D15a shows a voltage designation value and a reactive power value adjusted by a phase modifying equipment for each node. In the node data D15a shown in Fig. 3, the output value of active power of the load 104 connected to node c is a negative value. This indicates that the load 104 is a renewable energy power generation device.

[0020] Fig. 4 is a diagram showing an example of branch data in a certain future cross section. In the branch data D15b shown in Fig. 4, the connection source (From) and connection destination (To) nodes, resistance, inductive reactance X, and capacitive reactance Yc are shown in association with each branch 103 identified by the branch name.

[0021] Fig. 5 is a diagram showing an example of transformer data in a certain future cross section. In the transformer data D15c shown in Fig. 5, the connection source and destination nodes, the inductive reactance X, and the tap ratio are shown in association with each transformer 102 identified by the transformer name.

[0022] Fig. 6 is a diagram showing an example of generator data in a certain future cross section. In the generator data D15d shown in Fig. 5, the connected node, operating capacity, rated output, and inertia are shown in association with each generator 105 identified by the generator name. Although not shown in Fig. 5, other generator data includes the generator reactance, armature resistance, excitation control system model (AVR, PSS), governor model, etc.

[0023] When the data acquisition unit 10 acquires the above-mentioned scenario data D11 to system analysis base model data D15, it outputs the acquired data to the calculation unit 20. Here, the configuration of the calculation unit 20 will be described with reference to FIG.

[0024] 1, the calculation unit 20 includes a renewable energy output calculation unit 21, an energy demand calculation unit 22, a power supply output calculation unit 23, a system analysis model construction unit 24, and a data analysis unit 25. The calculation unit 20 is configured by, for example, a computer that executes a predetermined program.

[0025] The renewable energy output calculation unit 21 calculates the future power generation amount of renewable energy in the power supply area in a time series. The energy demand calculation unit 22 calculates the future power demand amount in the power supply area in a time series. The power output calculation unit 23 calculates the power generation amount that needs to be supplemented with energy other than renewable energy for the power demand amount of each future section in the power supply area calculated by the energy demand calculation unit 22.

[0026] The system analysis model construction unit 24 constructs a system analysis model based on the calculation results of each of the renewable energy output calculation unit 21, the energy demand calculation unit 22, and the power output calculation unit 23. The data analysis unit 25 uses the system analysis model constructed by the system analysis model construction unit 24 to analyze the power flow and stability of the power system.

[0027] The storage unit 30 is configured with a storage medium such as a semiconductor memory or a hard disk. The storage unit 30 is connected to the calculation unit 20. The writing and reading of data into and from the storage unit 30 is controlled by the calculation unit 20. In addition, when the calculation unit 20 is configured with a computer, the storage unit 30 also stores a program for causing the calculation unit 20 to execute the program as a computer.

[0028] The data output unit 40 is configured by, for example, a liquid crystal display, a plasma display, etc. The data output unit 40 displays various data including the calculation results of the calculation unit 20. The displayed data includes, for example, the analysis results of the data analysis unit 25.

[0029] Hereinafter, the power system analysis operation by the above-mentioned power system analysis device 1 will be described.

[0030] FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the power system analysis operation by the power system analysis device 1 according to the first embodiment.

[0031] 7, first, the data acquisition unit 10 receives scenario data D11, renewable energy introduction amount data D12, weather data D13, generator specification data D14, and system analysis base model data D15 (step S1). The acquired data is transmitted to the calculation unit 20.

[0032] Next, the renewable energy output calculation unit 21 calculates the amount of renewable energy power generation in a future section for each point in the power supply area (step S2). In step S2, for example, the renewable energy output calculation unit 21 calculates time series data of the amount of renewable energy power generation at each point using the scenario data D11, the renewable energy introduction amount data D12, and the weather data D13.

[0033] In step S2, the location of the power supply area and the forecast location of the weather data D13 may differ. For example, in a power system consisting of a distribution system, a local system, and a trunk system, when simulating in detail up to the trunk system of the two highest voltages (e.g., 500 kV and 275 kV), the voltage classes below 275 kV (66 kV or less, etc.) are condensed and simulated. The load power (including loss; reverse power flow due to renewable energy is also possible) consumed in the system below that is simulated as one load at the node on the secondary side (66 kV) of the transformer of a 275 kV-66 kV substation.

[0034] When calculating the amount of renewable energy power generation for each power supply area using the system analysis-based model data for the trunk grid as described above, it is first necessary to set the installed capacity of renewable energy for each contracted area (i.e., node).

[0035] If the renewable energy equipment capacity can be set for each node, the distribution of the renewable energy power generation amount for each node can be reproduced according to the past weather conditions included in the weather data D13 (weather reanalysis data) and the set renewable energy equipment capacity from the data of the solar radiation and wind speed at each prediction point included in the weather data D13. The prediction points of the weather data D13 correspond to lattice points dividing the weather prediction area into a mesh shape. Therefore, the renewable energy output calculation unit 21 assigns a lattice point corresponding to the nearest prediction point of the weather data D13 to a substation simulated as a power supply point in the system analysis based model data. In addition to the above, a method is also conceivable in which the renewable energy equipment capacity for each substation of a lower voltage class before degeneration is set, a lattice point corresponding to the nearest prediction point to the substation of the lower voltage class is assigned, and the output of renewable energy is calculated for each substation of the lower voltage class according to a formula to be described later, and the results are summed up on a (higher) node basis.

[0036] When the renewable energy power generation device installed in the power supply area is a solar power generation device, the renewable energy output calculation unit 21 calculates the amount of power generation, for example, by using the following formula (1).

[0037] Power generation = solar radiation x correction factor x system efficiency η x installed capacity (1) In the above formula (1), the amount of solar radiation at each point can be derived from the weather data D13 as described above. The correction coefficient is a value smaller than 1, and is preset for each month depending on the material of the solar panel. The system efficiency η indicates the conversion efficiency of photoelectric conversion and is preset. The installed capacity can be derived from the scenario data D11.

[0038] Furthermore, when the renewable energy power generation device is a wind power generation device, the renewable energy output calculation unit 21 converts, for example, the wind speed at each point derived from the weather data D13 into the amount of power generation. Here, an example of a method for converting the wind speed into the amount of power generation will be described with reference to FIG.

[0039] FIG. 8 is a diagram for explaining an example of a method for converting wind speed into power generation amount. In FIG. 8, the horizontal axis indicates wind speed, and the vertical axis indicates power generation amount. In the example of the wind power generation device shown in FIG. 8, the renewable energy output calculation unit 21 calculates the power generation amount at each point by approximating the power generation amount with respect to the wind speed from the cut-in wind speed to the rated wind speed with a cubic equation. The upper limit of the power generation amount of the wind power generation device at each point, the cut-in wind speed, and the rated wind speed are set for each wind power generation device by the renewable energy introduction amount data D12.

[0040] When the installed capacity of a photovoltaic power generation device or a wind power generation device is set for each node, the renewable energy power generation amount of each node can also be calculated according to the renewable energy power generation amount of each substation (each point) calculated by the renewable energy output calculation unit 21. At this time, there may be a case where the renewable energy power generation amount of any node exceeds the installed capacity of the renewable energy power generation device. Here, the processing for such a case will be described.

[0041] 9 is a flowchart showing an example of a processing procedure when the amount of renewable energy power generation exceeds the installation capacity. First, the renewable energy output calculation unit 21 determines whether or not the amount of renewable energy power generation exceeds the installation capacity of a preset renewable energy power generation device in each node (step S21).

[0042] If there is a node where the amount of renewable energy power generation exceeds the installed capacity of the renewable energy power generation device (step S21: YES), the renewable energy output calculation unit 21 determines whether the renewable energy power generation device is a photovoltaic power generation device (PV) or a wind power generation device (WT) (step S22).

[0043] In step S22, if the renewable energy power generation device that exceeds the installed capacity is a solar power generation device, the renewable energy output calculation unit 21 apportions the excess power generation amount to another solar power generation device that is connected to the same node as the solar power generation device and whose renewable energy power generation device is within the installed capacity, in an allocation ratio that does not exceed the installed capacity.

[0044] On the other hand, in step S22, if the renewable energy power generation device exceeding the facility capacity is a wind power generation device, the renewable energy output calculation unit 21 judges whether or not the excess power generation amount relative to the facility capacity can be apportioned to other wind power generation devices that are generating power (step S24). In step S24, the renewable energy output calculation unit 21 judges whether or not the excess power generation amount can be apportioned to wind power generation devices that satisfy the condition that the wind speed Vw at the point is equal to or greater than a predetermined cut-in wind speed and equal to or less than a predetermined rated wind speed.

[0045] If the excess power generation amount can be apportioned among other wind power generation devices that are currently generating power (step S24: YES), the renewable energy output calculation unit 21 apportions the excess power generation amount among the other wind power generation devices in an allocation ratio that does not exceed the installed capacity (step S25).

[0046] On the other hand, if the excess power generation amount cannot be apportioned by the other wind power generation devices that are generating power (step S24: NO), the renewable energy output calculation unit 21 adds wind power generation devices whose wind speed Vw is smaller than a predetermined cut-in wind speed or larger than a predetermined rated wind speed to the list of wind power generation devices to be subject to reallocation of excess power (step S26).

[0047] When the processing of step 2 described above is completed, as shown in Fig. 7, the energy demand calculation unit 22 calculates the energy demand in the future cross section for each point in the power supply area (step S3). The energy demand is easily affected by temperature. For example, on days and days when the temperature is high, the energy demand tends to increase because of an increase in cooling consumption. On the other hand, on days and days when the temperature is low, the energy demand tends to increase because of an increase in heating consumption.

[0048] Therefore, in this embodiment, the energy demand calculation unit 22 calculates the energy demand for each point in the future section by using the temperature data included in the weather data D13. If the above energy demand is indicated in the scenario data D11, the energy demand calculation unit 22 may extract the corresponding energy demand from the scenario data D11 in step S3. In this case, it is possible to reduce the time required for the calculation process of the energy demand and to reduce the load processing. It is also possible to correct the energy demand included in the scenario data D11 according to the difference (temperature difference) between the temperature data under the weather conditions when the energy demand is calculated and the temperature data included in the weather data D13.

[0049] Next, the renewable energy output calculation unit 21 calculates the amount of renewable energy power generation in the power supply area in the future cross section (step S4). In step S4, the renewable energy output calculation unit 21 calculates the amount of renewable energy power generation in the power supply area, for example, by adding up the amount of renewable energy power generation at each point calculated in step S2.

[0050] Next, the energy demand calculation unit 22 calculates the energy demand of the power supply area in the future cross section (step S5). In step S5, the renewable energy output calculation unit 21 calculates the energy demand of the power supply area by, for example, adding up the energy demand of each point calculated in step S3.

[0051] If the energy demand of the power supply area is indicated in the scenario data D11, the energy demand calculation unit 22 may extract the corresponding energy demand from the scenario data D11 in step S5. In this case, the energy demand calculation unit 22 may perform the process of step S5 prior to step S3. That is, the energy demand calculation unit 22 may extract the energy demand of the power supply area extracted from the scenario data D11, and then calculate the energy demand of each point based on a preset allocation ratio.

[0052] Next, the power output calculation unit 23 calculates the amount of power generated by other power generation facilities in the power supply area, excluding the renewable energy power generation device, in a time series manner (step S6). In step S6, for example, the power output calculation unit 23 calculates a shortage of energy demand by subtracting the amount of renewable energy power generation in the power supply area calculated by the renewable energy output calculation unit 21 in step S4 from the energy demand in the power supply area calculated by the energy demand calculation unit 22 in step S5. This shortage needs to be made up for by other power generation facilities.

[0053] Therefore, the power output calculation unit 23 calculates the shortage amount as the power generation amount of other power generation facilities. In addition, the power output calculation unit 23 calculates the power generation amounts of the thermal power generation facility, the hydroelectric power generation facility, the nuclear power generation facility, etc. individually based on the power supply configuration of the scenario data D11.

[0054] Next, the system analysis model construction unit 24 constructs a system analysis model based on the calculation results of the renewable energy output calculation unit 21, the energy demand calculation unit 22, and the power supply output calculation unit 23 (step S7). That is, the system analysis model construction unit 24 rewrites the values ​​of the system analysis base model shown in Figs. 3 to 6 based on each calculation result.

[0055] For example, the output value of the active power of the generator indicated in the node data D15a is rewritten to a value calculated by the power supply output calculation unit 23. Also, the output value of the active power of the load indicated in the node data D15a is rewritten to a value calculated by the energy demand calculation unit 22. However, since the load connected to node c is a renewable energy power generation device, the output value of the active power is rewritten to a value calculated by the renewable energy output calculation unit 21. Note that the voltage designation value and the reactive power value of the phase modifying equipment of the node data D15a, as well as the tap ratio of the transformer data D15c may be automatically adjusted by the system analysis model construction unit 24 in accordance with the target value of the voltage in the future section and the operation range.

[0056] Next, the data analysis unit 25 analyzes the power flow and stability of the power system using the system analysis model constructed by the system analysis model construction unit 24 (step S8). The power flow analysis and the stability analysis will be described below.

[0057] First, the power flow analysis will be described. In the power system power flow analysis, the data analysis unit 25 calculates the power flow of each node and each branch by inputting the system analysis model constructed by the system analysis model construction unit 24 into a power flow calculation model. The power flow calculation model is installed in software for performing, for example, system congestion evaluation and asset management. In this embodiment, an existing power flow calculation model may be used.

[0058] Fig. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a power flow calculation result of a node. In Fig. 10, the voltage and phase of each node in each future cross section are shown in association with the active power and reactive power of the generator, the active power and reactive power of the load, and the reactive power of the phase modifying equipment. The values ​​of the active power, reactive power, and reactive power of the phase modifying equipment are values ​​shown in the node data D15a, which is one of the system analysis models. In other words, the power flow calculation result of a node shows the voltage and phase of the node derived by a mathematical model that uses the values ​​shown in the node data D15a for the generator, load, and phase modifying equipment as parameters (the above example shows a PQ designated node, but for a PV designated node where a voltage is designated, the phase and reactive power are shown).

[0059] FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of a power flow calculation result of a branch. In FIG. 11, the active power flow, the reactive power flow, the active power loss, and the reactive power loss of each branch in each future cross section are shown. The active power loss and the reactive power loss are calculated based on the values ​​of the resistance, the inductive reactance, and the capacitive capacitance shown in the branch data D15b. In other words, the power flow calculation result of the branch indicates the active power flow, the reactive power flow, the active power loss, and the reactive power loss of the branch derived by the mathematical model. Note that the power flow calculation result of the branch may also indicate a phase difference angle, which is a phase difference between substations connected to both ends of each branch.

[0060] Next, the stability analysis will be described. In the stability analysis of the power system, the data analysis unit 25 inputs the power flow calculation result obtained by the power flow analysis into a stability evaluation model to analyze the degree to which each generator installed in the current system can stably transmit power. The stability evaluation model includes, for example, an effective value model and an instantaneous value model. The effective value model and the instantaneous value model are installed in, for example, software. In this embodiment, the effective value model and the instantaneous value model may be existing models.

[0061] The effective value model is composed of circuit equations for quantifying fluctuations in system characteristics such as generator voltage due to accidents such as lightning strikes. The instantaneous value model quantifies short-period electrical phenomena such as harmonics and shaft torsion in power electronics devices such as inverters in generators.

[0062] When the power flow analysis and stability analysis of the power system are completed, the data analysis unit 25 generates one vector data combining the multidimensional quantities shown in the power flow calculation results of the nodes and branches for each future cross section. Then, the data analysis unit 25 clusters the vector data. The quantities combined as the vector data include, for example, the voltage, phase, active power, reactive power, and reactive power input from the phase modifying equipment of the node. The quantities also include the active power flow, reactive power flow, active power loss, reactive power loss, phase difference angle, and the operating capacity of the generator of the branch.

[0063] Fig. 12 is a diagram showing an example of clustering of power flow calculation results. Fig. 12 shows an example of a clustering result of two-dimensional vector data combining the renewable energy output of all nodes in the future time horizon and the active power flow of all branches in the future time horizon. The renewable energy output of the node is calculated as the active power output of the load in the power flow calculation result of the node shown in Fig. 10.

[0064] 12, the power flow calculation results are clustered into three clusters: a first cluster C1, a second cluster C2, and a third cluster C3. The data analysis unit 25 sets a first representative cross section C10, a second representative cross section C20, and a third representative cross section C30 for the first cluster C1, the second cluster C2, and the third cluster C3, respectively. For example, the data analysis unit 25 may set a future cross section with the lowest stability as the representative cross section, or may set the center of gravity of the cluster as the representative drawing.

[0065] Fig. 13 is a diagram showing an example of the evaluation result of the stability of a power system. In Fig. 13, the horizontal axis indicates the number of patterns (in other words, the number of data) of each cluster shown in Fig. 12, and the vertical axis indicates the stability calculated using the effective value model or instantaneous value model described above. Note that the stability of each cluster uses a value of a representative cross section. When the clustering of the power flow calculation results and the evaluation of the stability are completed, the system analysis by data analysis unit 25 is completed.

[0066] Finally, the data output unit 40 displays the results of the phylogenetic analysis by the data analysis unit 25 (step S9). In step S9, for example, the data output unit 40 displays an image of clustering as shown in Fig. 12 or an image of cluster stability as shown in Fig. 13.

[0067] According to the present embodiment described above, when estimating the amount of renewable energy to be introduced in the future, the power system analysis device 1 groups the analysis data and obtains the stability of each group. Therefore, when considering the introduction of renewable energy into the power system, a stability index is provided. Therefore, it is possible to use this stability index as a supporting material for the above consideration.

[0068] In this embodiment, the year of the weather data D13 used may be changed to perform a system analysis for a certain year. For example, when performing a system analysis for 2030 using the weather data D13 for 2019 and 2020, the operations of steps S1 to S9 described above are performed in the initial system analysis using the weather data D13 for 2019.

[0069] Next, in the second system analysis using the weather data D13 for 2020, the data analysis unit 25 uses the relationship between the clusters grouped in the power flow calculation result using the weather data D13 for 2019 and the stability as teacher data. Therefore, in the second system analysis, the data analysis unit 25 may use the teacher data to derive the stability from the clustering result of the power flow calculation. In this case, it is not necessary to perform the stability analysis process using the stability evaluation model every time. This reduces the processing load of the calculation unit 20, and makes it possible to quickly obtain the stability. In addition, by assigning to which group of the clusters grouped in the power flow calculation result using the weather data D13 for 2019 each cross section in 2020 belongs from the power flow calculation result using the weather data D13 for 2020, the characteristics of each cross section in 2020 can be grasped only from the power flow calculation result.

[0070] (Modification) A modified example of the first embodiment will be described below. Here, the differences from the first embodiment will be mainly described, and detailed descriptions of the similarities will be omitted.

[0071] Fig. 14 is a schematic diagram of a power system according to this modification. Of the four power systems shown in Fig. 14, power system 100b and power system 100c are the simulation target area of ​​the system analysis model. Power system 100a and power system 100d are external systems outside the simulation target area. An interconnection line capacity CAP AB Between the power system 100b and the power system 100c, there is an interconnection line capacity CAP BC Between the power system 100c and the power system 100d, there are three interconnection lines with a capacity of CAP CDi There exists a connection capacity CAP CDi The sum can be calculated using the following formula:

[0072]

number

[0073] In step S4 of this modification, the renewable energy output calculation unit 21 calculates the amount of renewable energy power generation in the future for each of the power supply areas of the power system 100b and the power system 100c.

[0074] In step S5 of this modification, the energy demand calculation unit 22 calculates the energy demand in the future for each of the power supply areas of the power system 100b and the power system 100c.

[0075] In step S6 of this modification, the power output calculation unit 23 calculates the interconnection line capacity CAP AB , interconnection line capacity CAP BC , and the interconnection capacity CAP CDi The amounts of power generated by other power generation facilities in each of the power systems 100b and 100c are calculated using the sum of the above as a constraint.

[0076] In step S7 of this modified example, the system analysis model construction unit 24 rewrites the values ​​of the system analysis base models corresponding to the power system 100b and the power system 100c, respectively, based on the calculation results of the renewable energy output calculation unit 21, the energy demand calculation unit 22, and the power source output calculation unit 23, as in the first embodiment.

[0077] In step S8 of this modification, the data analysis unit 25 calculates each interconnection line power flow value (P AB , P BC , PCD ) is calculated.

[0078] Next, the data analysis unit 25 calculates the total value (P CD ) for each interconnection line capacity (CAP CD1 , CAP CD2 , CAP CD3 ) The data analyzer 25 also calculates a virtual load 200a for the power system 100a and virtual loads 200d1, 200d2, and 200d3 for the power system 100d. These virtual loads correspond to active power loads.

[0079] According to the present modification described above, the power flow values ​​are calculated including external systems outside the simulation target area of ​​the power system analysis model. Therefore, when considering the introduction of renewable energy into a power system, it becomes possible to calculate the power flow values ​​under conditions that are more suited to the actual situation of the power system.

[0080] Although several embodiments have been described above, these embodiments are presented only as examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. The novel system described in this specification can be implemented in various other forms. In addition, various omissions, substitutions, and modifications can be made to the forms of the system described in this specification without departing from the spirit of the invention. The scope of the appended claims and their equivalents are intended to include such forms and modifications that fall within the scope and spirit of the invention. [Explanation of symbols]

[0081] 1: Power system analysis device 10: Data acquisition section 21: Renewable energy output calculation unit 22: Energy demand calculation section 23: Power output calculation section 24: System analysis model construction department 25: Data Analysis Department

Claims

1. a data acquisition unit that acquires scenario data indicating time-series data related to analysis conditions of a power system and meteorological data of a power supply area of ​​the power system; A renewable energy output calculation unit that calculates a renewable energy power generation amount in the power supply area in a future timeline using the meteorological data; an energy demand calculation unit that calculates an energy demand in the power supply area in a future time horizon by using the scenario data or the weather data; A power output calculation unit that calculates the amount of power generated by other power generation facilities excluding the renewable energy power generation device based on the renewable energy power generation amount and the energy demand amount; a system analysis model construction unit that constructs a system analysis model for analyzing the power system based on the renewable energy power generation amount, the energy demand amount, and the power generation amount of the other power generation facilities; a data analysis unit that performs a power flow analysis to calculate a power flow value of the power system using the system analysis model, performs a stability analysis to calculate a stability of power transmission based on the power flow value, groups vector data indicating a calculation result of the power flow value for each future cross section, and evaluates a relationship between the group of vector data and the stability; A power system analysis device comprising:

2. 2. The power system analysis device according to claim 1, wherein the vector data includes at least one of a phase, an active power, a reactive power, and a reactive power input from a phase modifying device of a node of the power system, an active power flow, a reactive power flow, an active power loss, a reactive power loss, and a phase difference angle of a branch of the power system, and an operating capacity of a generator installed in the power system.

3. The renewable energy power generation device is a plurality of wind power generation devices, When the renewable energy power generation amount of any of the plurality of wind power generation devices exceeds an installation capacity, the renewable energy output calculation unit determining whether or not the excess power generation amount relative to the facility capacity can be apportioned to other wind power generation devices that satisfy a condition that the wind speed at a point within the power supply area is equal to or higher than a predetermined cut-in wind speed and equal to or lower than a predetermined rated wind speed; 3. The power system analysis device according to claim 2, wherein, when the excess power generation amount cannot be apportioned to the other wind power generation devices, a wind power generation device whose wind speed is smaller than the predetermined cut-in wind speed or larger than the predetermined rated wind speed is added to the allocation of the excess power generation amount.

4. the power output calculation unit calculates the power generation amount using as constraints a capacity of an interconnection line of a power system to be simulated by the power system analysis model and a capacity of an interconnection line connected to an external system not to be simulated by the power system analysis model; 2. The power system analysis device according to claim 1, wherein, when the power system is connected to the external system by a plurality of interconnection lines, the data analysis unit simulates virtual loads in a number equal to the number of the plurality of interconnection lines, and calculates an active power load of each virtual load by pro rataly distributing an interconnection line power flow value between the power system and the external system in accordance with a ratio of each interconnection line capacity.

5. The power system analyzer according to claim 1 , wherein the meteorological data is meteorological reanalysis data.

6. Acquiring scenario data indicating time-series data relating to analysis conditions of a power system and meteorological data for a power supply area of ​​the power system; Using the meteorological data, a renewable energy power generation amount in the power supply area in a future timeline is calculated; Calculating an energy demand in the power supply area in a future timeline using the scenario data or the meteorological data; Calculating the amount of power generation of other power generation facilities excluding the renewable energy power generation device based on the amount of renewable energy power generation and the amount of energy demand; constructing a system analysis model for analyzing the power system based on the renewable energy power generation amount, the energy demand amount, and the power generation amount of the other power generation facilities; performing a power flow analysis to calculate a power flow value of the power system using the system analysis model; performing a stability analysis to calculate the stability of power transmission based on the power flow value; grouping vector data indicating the calculation results of the power flow values ​​for each future section, and evaluating the relationship between the group of vector data and the stability; Power system analysis method.

7. A process of acquiring scenario data indicating time-series data related to analysis conditions of a power system and meteorological data of a power supply area of ​​the power system; A process of calculating a renewable energy power generation amount in the power supply area in a future timeline using the meteorological data; A process of calculating an energy demand in the power supply area in a future timeline using the scenario data or the meteorological data; A process of calculating the amount of power generation of power generation facilities other than the renewable energy power generation device based on the renewable energy power generation amount and the energy demand amount; A process of constructing a system analysis model for analyzing the power system based on the renewable energy power generation amount, the energy demand amount, and the power generation amount of the other power generation facilities; performing a power flow analysis to calculate a power flow value of the power system using the system analysis model; A process of performing a stability analysis to calculate the stability of power transmission based on the power flow value; a process of grouping vector data indicating the calculation results of the power flow values ​​for each future section, and evaluating a relationship between the group of vector data and the stability; A program for causing a computer to execute the following.

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