Power system operation planning device, computer program for power system operation planning device, and power system operation planning method

Abstract

To provide a power system operation planning device capable of calculating an operation amount of an adjustment force including a renewable energy facility corresponding to output of the renewable energy facility, which varies according to weathers, through clear calculation procedures.SOLUTION: A power system operation planning device 1 comprises: a calculation question creation section 102 for creating a target function relating to a tidal current calculation question having a term of a power price of power relating to an adjustment force that is thrown into a power system including a renewable energy power generation facility; and a calculation question execution section 103 for calculating a magnitude of power related to an adjustment force corresponding to a plurality of pieces of weather prediction information at the same time in the same area on the basis of the target function created by the calculation question creation section 102. The power system operation planning device outputs an operation plan using power related to the adjustment force, which is calculated by the calculation question execution section 103, based on the plurality of pieces of weather prediction information and the plurality of pieces of weather prediction information that is the basis of calculation of power related to the adjustment force.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present embodiment relates to a power system operation planning device that creates an operation plan for a plurality of generators that supply power to a power system, a computer program for the power system operation planning device, and a power system operation planning method. [Background technology]

[0002] There is known a power system operation planning device that calculates the operation amounts of a plurality of generators, including renewable energy power generation facilities, that supply power to a power system. In particular, the operation amounts of the renewable energy power generation facilities must be determined according to the weather, and therefore are calculated based on predicted values. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] JP 2016-194849 A [Patent Document 2] JP 2022-077459 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] Due to the recent liberalization of the electricity market, new electricity suppliers have entered the electricity business, and electricity supply and consumption have become more complicated than before. For this reason, it is necessary to carefully adjust the amount of electricity demand and supply (hereinafter referred to as "electricity supply and demand"). It is preferable to adjust electricity supply and demand at an appropriate cost.

[0005] In recent years, new electric power suppliers have introduced large amounts of renewable energy power generation facilities such as solar power generation and wind power generation (hereinafter sometimes referred to as "renewable energy facilities") into the power grid. In order to adjust the supply and demand of electricity by connecting renewable energy facilities to the power grid, it is necessary to calculate the operation amount of the adjustment capacity, including the renewable energy facilities, based on the constraints of the power grid's voltage, current, active power flow, etc. Adjustment capacity is the output from the power facilities used for adjustment.

[0006] However, due to uneven distribution of renewable energy facilities, the current and active power flow of transmission lines and transformers become excessive in certain areas, causing problems of congestion in the power system.Power transmission and distribution companies resolve congestion in the power system by controlling phase transformers based on the predicted output value of renewable energy facilities, changing the system configuration, suppressing renewable energy facilities, changing the output plan of secured power sources used as balancing power, and formulating plans for connect and manage.

[0007] Because the output of renewable energy facilities fluctuates depending on the weather, the predicted output value contains an error. For this reason, it is important to formulate a system operation plan based on the output prediction of renewable energy facilities that takes the error into account, and to calculate the manipulated variable of the adjustment capacity, including the renewable energy facilities. It is preferable to calculate the manipulated variable of the adjustment capacity, including the renewable energy facilities, that corresponds to the output of the renewable energy facilities that fluctuates depending on the weather.

[0008] In addition, in conventional technology, grid operation plans were created using weather forecast information calculated probabilistically based on statistical methods such as machine learning. If the amount of control power, including renewable energy facilities, is calculated based on such a grid operation plan using conventional technology, the statistical methods inevitably involve errors, and the system operation will not be the most economical one to resolve grid congestion.

[0009] For this reason, electric power companies that generate electricity using renewable energy facilities such as solar and wind power plants may be required to explain the reasons for the operation of those facilities. For example, when suppressing the output of renewable energy facilities, economic losses will occur to the electric power companies that generate electricity using those facilities, so a clear reason is required.

[0010] When the manipulated variable of the control capacity including the renewable energy facilities is calculated by a statistical method such as machine learning, the calculation basis of the manipulated variable is not necessarily clear. It is preferable that the manipulated variable of the control capacity including the renewable energy facilities is calculated by a clear calculation procedure.

[0011] In consideration of the above problems, the present embodiment aims to provide a power system operation planning device, a computer program for the power system operation planning device, and a power system operation planning method that are capable of calculating, through a clear calculation procedure, an operation amount of adjustment power including renewable energy equipment that corresponds to the output of renewable energy equipment that fluctuates depending on the weather. [Means for solving the problem]

[0012] The power system operation planning device of this embodiment has the following features. (1) A calculation problem creation unit is provided that creates an objective function for a power flow calculation problem having a term related to the power price for power related to adjustment capacity, which is the output from power equipment used for adjustment of a power system that includes renewable energy power generation equipment. (2) A calculation problem execution unit that calculates the amount of power required for the adjustment power corresponding to a plurality of weather forecast information for the same area at the same time based on the objective function created by the calculation problem creation unit. (3) Outputting an operation plan based on the power required for the adjustment capacity, which is based on a plurality of pieces of weather forecast information calculated by the calculation problem execution unit, and the plurality of pieces of weather forecast information that were used as the basis for calculating the power required for the adjustment capacity. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0013] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a configuration of a power system operation planning device 1 according to a first embodiment. [Diagram 2] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a program flow of a power system operation planning device 1 according to a first embodiment. [Diagram 3] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of power system information 201 of the power system operation planning device 1 according to the first embodiment. [Figure 4]FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of power generation plan information 202 of the power system operation planning device 1 according to the first embodiment. [Diagram 5] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of retail plan information 203 of the power system operation planning device 1 according to the first embodiment. [Figure 6] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of weather uncertainty information 204 of a power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to a first embodiment. [Figure 7] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of supply and demand maintenance adjustment capability planning information 205 of a power system operation planning device 1 according to a first embodiment. [Figure 8] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of adjustment capability candidate information 206 of a power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to a first embodiment. [Figure 9] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of control target device information 207 of the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment. [Figure 10] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of renewable energy facility information 208 of the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment; [Figure 11] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of weather forecast information displayed by a power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to a first embodiment; [Figure 12] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of information related to the amount of solar radiation displayed by the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment; [Figure 13] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a configuration of a power system operation planning device 1 according to a second embodiment. [Figure 14] FIG. 13 is a diagram showing a program flow of the power system operation planning device 1 according to the second embodiment. [Figure 15] FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of emergency control candidate information 211 of the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the second embodiment. [Figure 16] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a configuration of a power system operation planning device 1 according to a third embodiment. [Figure 17] FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of system congestion history information 212 of the power system operation planning device 1 according to the third embodiment. [Figure 18] FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of a confusion matrix displayed by the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the third embodiment; DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0014] The power flow calculation problem creation unit 102 and the emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112 described later may be collectively referred to as the “calculation problem creation unit,” and the multiple pattern calculation problem execution unit 103 and the emergency control plan calculation problem execution unit 113 may be collectively referred to as the “calculation problem execution unit.”

[0015] [First embodiment] [1-1. Configuration] The configuration of a power system operation planning device 1 will be described as an example of this embodiment with reference to Fig. 1. The power system operation planning device 1 is configured by a computer. The power system operation planning device 1 calculates the operation amount of adjustment capability including renewable energy facilities, which corresponds to the output of the renewable energy facilities that varies depending on the weather, by a clear calculation procedure. The adjustment capability is the output from the power facilities used for adjustment.

[0016] The power system operation planning device 1 has a processing unit 10, a memory unit 20, a mathematical problem solver 30, an input unit 40, and an output unit 50. The memory unit 20, the mathematical problem solver 30, the input unit 40, and the output unit 50 are connected to the processing unit 10. The processing unit 10 controls the memory unit 20, the mathematical problem solver 30, the input unit 40, and the output unit 50.

[0017] The storage unit 20 is configured with a storage medium such as a hard disk or a semiconductor memory. The storage unit 20 is connected to the processing unit 10. The processing unit 10 controls the writing and reading of data to and from the storage unit 20.

[0018] Data in the storage unit 20 is input and stored via the input unit 40. The storage unit 20 stores power system information 201, power generation plan information 202, retail plan information 203, weather uncertainty information 204, supply and demand maintenance adjustment capability plan information 205, adjustment capability candidate information 206, control target device information 207, and renewable energy facility information 208.

[0019] The power system information 201 is information on the lower and upper voltage limits for each node ID. The power system information 201 includes information on the start node ID, end node ID, impedance, and capacitance for each branch ID. An example of the power system information 201 is shown in FIG. 3.

[0020] The power generation plan information 202 is information in which the active power output plan value, the reactive power lower limit value, and the reactive power upper limit value of each power source owned by the power generation company are stored for each date and time in association with each node ID. Information on the reactive power lower limit value and upper limit value of each power source is collected by the system operator. An example of the power generation plan information 202 is shown in FIG. 4.

[0021] The retail plan information 203 is information in which the planned value of the active power load and the estimated value of the reactive power load are stored for each date and time in association with each node ID. The estimated value of the reactive power load is calculated by a correlation formula based on the planned value of the active power load. An example of the retail plan information 203 is shown in FIG. 5.

[0022] The weather uncertainty information 204 is information in which solar radiation forecast values ​​and renewable energy output forecast values ​​are stored for each date and time in association with each node ID. In recent years, technology has been developed that provides multiple weather forecast information assumed at the same time, taking into account weather uncertainty. The multiple weather forecast information provided may be called an ensemble forecast. The IDs assigned to the multiple weather forecast information related to the ensemble forecast are called members. The members are stored for each date and time in association with each node ID. The renewable energy output forecast value is calculated using a conversion formula based on the solar radiation. An example of the weather uncertainty information 204 is shown in FIG. 6.

[0023] The supply and demand maintenance adjustment force plan information 205 is information in which the adjustable range of adjustment force that can be lowered, the adjustable range of adjustment force that can be raised, and the adjustment force kWh price in a plan for adjustment force to maintain supply and demand are stored for each date and time in association with each node ID. Adjustment force is the output from power equipment used for adjustment, and is controlled by instructions from the system operator. The supply and demand maintenance adjustment force plan information 205 stores the range of power that can be adjusted up (ΔkW) and the range of power that can be adjusted down (ΔkW) of active power output. The adjustment force kWh price is the cost required for adjustment per unit of power (kWh). FIG. 7 shows an example of the supply and demand maintenance adjustment force plan information 205.

[0024] The adjustment capacity candidate information 206 is information in which the maximum adjustable range of adjustment capacity for resolving grid congestion, the adjustment capacity ΔkW price, and the adjustment capacity kWh price are stored for each date and time in association with each node ID. The adjustment capacity ΔkW price is the cost for securing unit power (ΔkW). An example of the adjustment capacity candidate information 206 is shown in FIG. 8.

[0025] The controlled device information 207 is information on the lower limit value and the upper limit value of the input amount of a phase modifying device, which is a controlled device other than the adjustment capacity, that is input to each node on the tertiary side of the transformer. The controlled device information 207 includes information on the lower limit and the upper limit of the tap ratio in the branch of the transformer. An example of the controlled device information 207 is shown in FIG. 9.

[0026] The renewable energy facility information 208 is information in which the capacity of a renewable energy facility, that is, the renewable energy facility capacity, is stored in association with each node ID. An example of the renewable energy facility information 208 is shown in FIG.

[0027] The processing unit 10 is composed of a CPU (Central Processing Unit) of a microcomputer, etc. The processing unit 10 has a data management unit 101, a power flow calculation problem creation unit 102, a multiple pattern calculation problem execution unit 103, an operation plan selection unit 104, an operation plan transmission unit 105, and a display unit 106. The data management unit 101, the power flow calculation problem creation unit 102, the multiple pattern calculation problem execution unit 103, the operation plan selection unit 104, and the operation plan transmission unit 105 are composed of software modules or hardware.

[0028] The processing unit 10 is connected to the storage unit 20, the mathematical problem solver 30, the input unit 40, and the output unit 50. The processing unit 10 controls the storage unit 20, the mathematical problem solver 30, the input unit 40, and the output unit 50.

[0029] The data management unit 101 processes the data input from the input unit 40 and stores it in the memory unit 20. The data management unit 101 transmits the calculation results and data processed by the power flow calculation problem creation unit 102, the multiple pattern calculation problem execution unit 103, the operation plan selection unit 104, and the operation plan transmission unit 105 of the processing unit 10 to the output unit 50.

[0030] The power flow calculation problem creating unit 102 creates each data in the power system based on the data stored in the storage unit 20, and creates an optimal power flow calculation problem. The created optimal power flow calculation problem is sent to a multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103.

[0031] The multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 receives the optimal power flow calculation problem created by the power flow calculation problem creating unit 102, and calculates an optimal solution. The multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 transmits the optimal power flow calculation problem to the mathematical problem solver 30 described below, and causes the mathematical problem solver 30 to calculate an optimal solution. The multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 then receives the optimal solution calculated by the mathematical problem solver 30, and transmits it to the operation plan selecting unit 104.

[0032] The operation plan selection unit 104 receives the optimal solutions transmitted from the multiple pattern computation problem execution unit 103, and selects the optimal solutions to be used for actual operation from among the optimal solutions, and creates an operation plan. The created operation plan is sent to the operation plan transmission unit 105.

[0033] The operation plan transmission unit 105 receives the operation plan created by the operation plan selection unit 104. The operation plan transmission unit 105 transmits the operation plan in which the optimal solution is selected to the output unit 50 via the display unit 106 and the data management unit 101.

[0034] The display unit 106 is configured with a display device such as a liquid crystal display. The display unit 106 displays the operation plan in which the optimal solution transmitted from the operation plan transmission unit 105 is selected. The display unit 106 also displays the calculation results calculated by the power flow calculation problem creation unit 102, the multiple pattern calculation problem execution unit 103, the operation plan selection unit 104, and the operation plan transmission unit 105, and the data stored in the memory unit 20.

[0035] The mathematical problem solver 30 is configured with a software module or hardware. The mathematical problem solver 30 is connected to the processing unit 10. The mathematical problem solver 30 receives an optimal power flow calculation problem from the multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103, and calculates an optimal solution. The calculated optimal solution is transmitted to the multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103. The mathematical problem solver 30 calculates the optimal solution by, for example, the primal-dual interior point method or the Newton method.

[0036] The input unit 40 is composed of an operating device such as a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, or a receiving circuit, or an external memory connection circuit. The input unit 40 is connected to the processing unit 10. It is operated by an operator, and information to be stored in the storage unit 20 is input from the input unit 40. Information to be stored in the storage unit 20 may be input via the input unit 40 from communication or an external storage device. The information or data input from the input unit 40 is processed by the data management unit 101 and stored in the storage unit 20.

[0037] The output unit 50 is composed of a transmission circuit, an external memory connection circuit, etc. The output unit 50 is connected to the processing unit 10. The output unit 50 transmits the operation plan transmitted from the operation plan transmission unit 105 to an external device. The output unit 50 also transmits the calculation results calculated by the power flow calculation problem creation unit 102, the multiple pattern calculation problem execution unit 103, the operation plan selection unit 104, and the operation plan transmission unit 105, and the data stored in the storage unit 20 to the external device. The external device connected to the output unit 50 may be an I / O device such as a printer or a monitor, an external storage device, or an external control device or computer device.

[0038] The above is the configuration of the power system operation planning device 1 according to the present embodiment.

[0039] [1-2. Effect]

[0040] Next, the operation of the power system operation planning device 1 of the present embodiment will be described with reference to Figs.

[0041] The power system operation planning device 1 calculates the operation amount of the adjustment power, including that of the renewable energy equipment, corresponding to the output of the renewable energy equipment that varies depending on the weather, based on multiple weather forecast information expected at the same time, using a clear calculation procedure described later.

[0042] The power system operation planning device 1 has a power flow calculation problem creation unit 102 that creates an objective function for a power flow calculation problem having a term related to the power price for the power for adjustment power, which is the output from power equipment used for adjustment in a power system including renewable energy power generation equipment, and a multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 that calculates the magnitude of the power for adjustment power corresponding to multiple pieces of weather forecast information for the same area at the same time, based on the objective function created by the power flow calculation problem creation unit 102, and outputs an operation plan for the power for adjustment power based on the multiple pieces of weather forecast information calculated by the multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103, and the multiple pieces of weather forecast information that were the basis for calculating the power for adjustment power.

[0043] The objective function created by the power flow calculation problem creation unit 102 has a term related to the power price of additional power required for adjustment capacity in a term related to power price, and the multiple pattern calculation problem execution unit 103 calculates the magnitude of the additional power among the power required for adjustment capacity.

[0044] As mentioned above, in recent years, technology has been developed that takes into account the uncertainty of the weather and provides multiple weather forecasts that are expected at the same time. The multiple weather forecasts that are provided are sometimes called ensemble forecasts. Each of the multiple weather forecasts in an ensemble forecast is called a member.

[0045] The weather in the future changes from moment to moment. Therefore, weather forecasts have uncertainty. To deal with the uncertainty of weather forecasts, a technology called ensemble forecasting has been developed that provides multiple weather forecast information at each time. The Japan Meteorological Agency has been distributing mesoensemble forecast GPV, which calculates 21 patterns of forecasts every three hours in a 5 km mesh, since 2019. The power system operation planning device 1 according to this embodiment is capable of handling multiple weather forecast information.

[0046] The operation of the power system operation planning device 1 is outlined below.

[0047] The data management unit 101 of the processing unit 10 processes the data input from the input unit 40 and stores the data in the storage unit 20 .

[0048] The power flow calculation problem creation unit 102 of the processing unit 10 creates each data in the power system based on the data stored in the storage unit 20, and creates an optimal power flow calculation problem.

[0049] The multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 of the processing unit 10 receives the optimal power flow calculation problem created by the power flow calculation problem creating unit 102, and calculates an optimal solution using the mathematical problem solver 30. The mathematical problem solver 30 calculates an optimal solution for the optimal power flow calculation problem. The mathematical problem solver 30 calculates the optimal solution using, for example, the primal-dual interior point method or the Newton method.

[0050] The operation plan selection unit 104 of the processing unit 10 receives the optimal solutions from the multiple pattern calculation problem execution unit 103, and selects the optimal solution to be used for actual operation from among the optimal solutions for the plan to create an operation plan. The optimal solution selected for the operation plan corresponds to the manipulated variable of the adjustment capacity. The manipulated variable of the adjustment capacity is calculated for each of multiple weather forecast information expected at the same time.

[0051] The operation plan transmission unit 105 of the processing unit 10 transmits an operation plan corresponding to a plurality of pieces of weather forecast information expected at the same time to the output unit 50 via the display unit 106 and the data management unit 101.

[0052] The display unit 106 of the processing unit 10 displays the operation plan in which the optimal solution is selected and transmitted from the operation plan transmission unit 105. The output unit 50 transmits the operation plan transmitted from the operation plan transmission unit 105 to an external device.

[0053] The details of the operation of the power system operation planning device 1 are as follows.

[0054] The data management unit 101 processes the data input from the input unit 40 and stores it in the memory unit 20 as power system information 201, power generation plan information 202, retail plan information 203, weather uncertainty information 204, supply and demand maintenance adjustment capacity plan information 205, adjustment capacity candidate information 206, controlled equipment information 207, and renewable energy facility information 208.

[0055] The data management unit 101 calculates the estimated value of the reactive power load included in the retail plan information 203 using (Equation 1) based on the input planned value of the active power load.

number

[0056] In formula 1, the parameters are as follows: Q i load : Reactive power load of node i P i L : Active power load of node i a: a preset constant, e.g. a=-41 b: a preset constant, e.g. b=0.11 c: a preset constant, e.g. c=0.0015

[0057] The data management unit 101 calculates a renewable energy output forecast value for member m of the ensemble forecast of node i included in the weather uncertainty information 204. When the renewable energy facility is a solar power generation facility, the renewable energy output forecast value P i,m RE is calculated using Equation 2.

number

[0058] In (Equation 2), the parameters are as follows: Correction coefficient: Use a value such as 0.80 Equipment capacity: Uses information from Renewable Energy Equipment Information 208

[0059] In the power system operation planning device 1, the following parameters are used for calculation.

[0060] [Optimal power flow problem variables] An example of variables used in the optimal power flow calculation problem is shown below. Among the variables below, those with the subscript m are values ​​that are assumed to occur when each member of the ensemble forecast is realized at the actual supply and demand time. Δp g cres : The additional reserve of up-regulation power to eliminate system congestion at bus g. Δp g cres ≧0. p g,m cres : The amount of adjustment power for member m of the ensemble forecast at bus g to relieve system congestion.

[0061] q g,m gen: is the reactive power output for member m of the ensemble forecast of generators at bus g. v i,m : the voltage for member m of the ensemble forecast for bus i. v i,m ≧0. θ i,m : is the phase of the ensemble forecast for member m of generator i.

[0062] s i,m : The input amount for member m of the ensemble forecast of phase modifying equipment i. It represents the lagging reactive power supply amount when the voltage is 1 pu. t ik,m : The tap ratio for member m of the ensemble forecast of the branch connecting nodes i and k. t ik,m ≧0. α ij,m line : The deviation from the constraint for the active power flow of the branch connecting nodes i and j when the starting point is i and the ending point is j.

[0063] [Constants for optimal power flow calculation problem] An example of constants used in optimal power flow calculation problems is shown below. C g cres : The price of the adjustment capacity Δkw of the candidate adjustment capacity for increasing the adjustment capacity to eliminate system congestion of the adjustment capacity of the bus g. This data is included in the adjustment capacity candidate information 206. D g cres : The adjustment capacity kWh price of the bus g. This data is included in the adjustment capacity candidate information 206. M: A value that is sufficiently large compared to other costs, for example, 999999.

[0064] P g gen : A planned value of the active power output of the generator at the bus g by the power generation company. This data is included in the power generation plan information 202. P g,m bres: The amount of adjustment power to be activated for a member m of the ensemble forecast at bus g in response to a supply-demand imbalance. It is calculated in advance by the data management unit 101 based on the estimated value of apparent demand (load-renewable energy) of the entire system calculated based on the ensemble forecast and the power imbalance related to the power generation plan information 202 and the retail plan information 203. For example, based on the supply-demand maintenance adjustment power plan information 205, the output is calculated in ascending order of adjustment power kWh price.

[0065] P i,m load : is the apparent demand for member m of the ensemble forecast of generator i. P i,m load =P i L -P i,m RE It is calculated as follows. Q i load : Estimated value of reactive power load of bus i. This data is included in the retail plan information 203.

[0066] G ik : the i and k elements of the conductance matrix. They are calculated in advance by the data management unit 101 based on the data of the impedance, capacitance, and tap ratio initial value related to the power system information 201. B ik : the i and k elements of the susceptance matrix. They are calculated in advance by the data management unit 101 based on the data of the impedance, capacitance, and tap ratio initial value related to the power system information 201.

[0067] T ik org : The initial tap ratio value of the branch connecting the bus i and the bus k. This data is included in the power system information 201. P g res,min : The adjustable range of the adjustment capability to maintain supply and demand on the bus g. This data is included in the supply and demand maintenance adjustment capability plan information 205.

[0068] P g res,max: The adjustable range of the adjustment capability of the bus g to maintain supply and demand. This data is included in the supply and demand maintenance adjustment capability plan information 205. P g cres,max : the adjustable range of the adjustment capability of the bus g to eliminate system congestion. This data is included in the adjustment capability candidate information 206. P ij line,max : Upper limit of the magnitude of the active power flow in the branch connecting bus i and bus j. s i min : Represents the lower limit of the input amount of phase modifying equipment i. s i max : Represents the upper limit of the input amount of phase modifying equipment i. t ij min :Represents the lower limit of the tap ratio of the branch connecting bus i and bus j. t ij max : Represents the upper limit of the tap ratio of the branch connecting bus i and bus j.

[0069] [Set of optimal load flow problems] An example of a set used for an optimal power flow problem is shown below. [G]: Set of bus numbers where generators are installed [B]: Set of busbars [R]: A set of ensemble forecast members [L]: A set of all branch start and end node combinations [T]: A set of combinations of start and end nodes of branches with tap ratios as variables [S]: A set of nodes where modifiers are installed

[0070] The operations of the power flow calculation problem creating unit 102, the multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103, the operation plan selecting unit 104, and the operation plan transmitting unit 105 are realized by the program shown in Fig. 2. The program shown in Fig. 2 is built into the processing unit 10 of the power system operation planning apparatus 1.

[0071] (Step S01: Creating an optimal power flow problem) The power flow problem creation unit 102 creates an optimal power flow problem. The operation of step S01 is executed by the power flow problem creation unit 102 of the processing unit 10. The power flow problem creation unit 102 creates an optimal power flow problem based on the power system information 201, the power generation plan information 202, the retail plan information 203, the weather uncertainty information 204, the supply and demand maintenance adjustment capability plan information 205, the adjustment capability candidate information 206, the controlled device information 207, and the renewable energy facility information 208 stored in the storage unit 20.

[0072] Equation 3 is an example of an objective function for an optimal power flow problem.

number

[0073] In formula 3, p(m) is the probability that member m of the ensemble forecast, which is multiple weather forecast information, can be taken. If we assume that the probability of occurrence of member m of the ensemble forecast is uniform, then when the number of members is 21, p(m) is uniformly set to 1 / 21.

[0074] Section 1, paragraph C g cres Δp g cres is the electricity price (ΔkW price) when additional upward adjustment capacity is secured. g cres p g,m cres is the electricity price (kWh price) for the effective power output of the control reserve. The second term is D g cres p g,m cres is the expected value of the electricity price (kWh price) for the effective power output of the control capacity multiplied by p(m). ij,m line constitutes a penalty function based on the amount of deviation from the constraint. The third term is Mα ij,m line is the expected value of the penalty function, multiplied by p(m).

[0075] The objective function shown in (Equation 3) is the power price at bus number [G] that is minimized by Δp g cres and p g,m cres The objective function may be configured by one of the first and second terms in (Equation 3).

[0076] The constraints for the optimal power flow calculation problem are explained below. The AC power flow equations for active power and reactive power are shown in (Equation 4) and (Equation 5).

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[0077] The upper and lower limits of the active power output of the control capability of bus g for member m are as shown in (Equation 6). g res The upper limit varies depending on the

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[0078] The constraint on the adjustable range for increasing the control capability of bus g to eliminate system congestion is shown in (Equation 7).

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[0079] The upper and lower limit constraints on the reactive power output of the generator at bus g for member m are as shown in (Equation 8).

number

[0080] The upper and lower limit constraints on the voltage of bus i for member m are as shown in (Equation 9).

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[0081] The upper limit constraint of the active power flow at node i and node j of the branch between buses i and j for member m is as shown in (Equation 10). α ij,m line is positive if the upper and lower bounds are not satisfied.

number

[0082] The constraint that the phase of the bus ref (phase reference) for member m is 0 is shown in (Equation 11).

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[0083] The upper and lower limit constraints on the input amount of phase modifying equipment i for member m are as shown in (Equation 12).

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[0084] The upper and lower limit constraints on the tap ratio of the branch connecting nodes i and j for member m are as shown in (Equation 13).

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[0085] (Step S02: Executing the optimal power flow calculation problem) The multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 executes the optimal power flow calculation problem created in step S01 and calculates an optimal solution of the objective function according to (Equation 3). The operation according to step S02 is executed by the multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 of the processing unit 10. The optimal solution of the objective function according to (Equation 3) is calculated for an ensemble forecast, which is a plurality of weather forecast information.

[0086] The multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 transmits the optimal power flow calculation problem according to (Equation 3) to (Equation 13) to the mathematical problem solver 30. The mathematical problem solver 30 solves the optimal power flow calculation problem using the primal-dual interior point method or the Newton method. The mathematical problem solver 30 finds Δp g cres (Additional securement of upward adjustment capacity), p g,m cres (Amount of adjustment power), s i,m (Input amount of phase modifying equipment i), t ik,m Calculate the tap ratio.

[0087] q g,m gen (reactive power output), v i,m (Voltage), θ i,m (Phase), α ij,m line (Constraint deviation amount) is Δp g cres (Additional securement of upward adjustment capacity), p g,m cres (Amount of adjustment power), s i,m (Input amount of phase modifying equipment i), t ik,m (Tap ratio) is calculated, and the calculation is performed subordinately.

[0088] When there are many elements in set [R] (a set of ensemble forecast members), there are many variables. This may make it difficult for the mathematical problem solver 30 to calculate an optimal solution to the optimal power flow calculation problem. In this case, the elements of set [R] may be limited to one of the members m of the ensemble forecast, and the process of solving the optimal power flow calculation problem by the multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 may be repeated a number of times corresponding to the members m of the ensemble forecast. In other words, the processes of steps S01 and S02 may be repeated a number of times corresponding to the members m of the ensemble forecast.

[0089] The optimal solution of the objective function in (Equation 3) is Δp g cres (Additional reserve of upward control capacity) is calculated as a single solution, regardless of the members of the ensemble forecast. On the other hand, p g,m cres (Amount of adjustment power), s i,m (Input amount of phase modifying equipment i), t ik,m (tap ratio) is calculated for each member m of the ensemble forecast, which is a plurality of weather forecast information. The multiple pattern calculation problem execution unit 103 calculates the optimal solution Δp g cres (Additional securement of upward adjustment capacity), p g,m cres (Amount of adjustment power), s i,m (Input amount of phase modifying equipment i), t ik,m (tap ratio) and q g,m gen (reactive power output), v i,m (Voltage), θ i,m (Phase), α ij,m line (Constraint deviation amount) is received.

[0090] (Step S03: Selection of a solution for the operation plan) The operation plan selection unit 104 adds Δp to the operation plan for the next day based on the optimal solution calculated in step S02. g cresThe operation in step S03 is executed by the operation plan selection unit 104 of the processing unit 10. When the optimal power flow calculation problem is solved with the entire set of the set [R] (the set of members of the ensemble forecast) as one element, Δp g cres There is only one solution, and this solution is used as the Δp g cres Let us assume that.

[0091] When the processes of steps S01 and S02 are repeated the number of times for the mth member of the ensemble forecast, Δp g cres In this case, the solution for (additional secured amount of up-regulation capacity) is obtained. ij,m line (Constraint deviation amount) is minimized Δp g cres Alternatively, Δp g cres Alternatively, the following may be selected.

[0092] (Step S04: Sending operation plan) The operation plan transmission unit 105 transmits the operation plan selected in step S03 to the output unit 50. The operation plan transmission unit 105 of the processing unit 10 transmits the operation plan to the output unit 50 via the data management unit 101.

[0093] The output unit 50 is connected to external devices such as I / O devices such as a printer or a monitor, an external storage device, a control device, and a computer device. These external devices may be, for example, an operation management system of a power generation company. The output unit 50 transmits the operation plan to these external devices.

[0094] The display unit 106 displays a list of optimal solutions of the objective function calculated in step S02 and the operation plan selected in step S03. The display unit 106 also displays weather forecast information used in the operation plan. An example of the weather forecast information displayed in Figs. 11 and 12 is shown.

[0095] Fig. 11 is a visualization of the forecasted value of cloud cover in the weather forecast information on a map showing the power system. Fig. 12 is a visualization of the information of the forecasted value of the amount of solar radiation at a target point. Fig. 12 shows the forecasted value of the amount of solar radiation at each point of node N2, node N5, and node N10 as an example.

[0096] The uncertainty of the weather forecast can be understood from Fig. 11. In Fig. 11, there are clouds around nodes N2 and N5, and it can be seen that the uncertainty of the weather forecast at nodes N2 and N5 is high. Fig. 12 can be seen to understand the variance in the insolation forecast values ​​of each member m of the ensemble forecast. It can be seen that the variance in the insolation at nodes N2 and N5 is large, while the variance in the insolation at node N10 is small. Nodes N2 and N5 are geographically close to each other, and therefore have similar trends in the fluctuations in insolation.

[0097] The above is the operation of the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the present embodiment.

[0098] [1-3. Effects] (1) According to the present embodiment, the power system operation planning device 1 includes a power flow calculation problem creation unit 102 that creates an objective function for a power flow calculation problem having a term related to power price for power related to adjustment power, which is output from power equipment used for adjustment in a power system including renewable energy power generation equipment, and a multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 that calculates the magnitude of power related to adjustment power corresponding to a plurality of weather forecast information for the same area at the same time, based on the objective function created by the power flow calculation problem creation unit 102. The multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 outputs an operation plan for power related to adjustment power based on a plurality of weather forecast information, and a plurality of pieces of weather forecast information on which the calculation of the power related to adjustment power is based, so that it is possible to provide a power system operation planning device 1 that can calculate the operation amount of adjustment power including renewable energy power generation equipment corresponding to the output of renewable energy power generation equipment that fluctuates depending on the weather, using a clear calculation procedure.

[0099] According to this embodiment, it is possible to formulate an operation plan for a power system based on adjustment capacity with a clear calculation basis. According to this embodiment, it is possible to clarify weather forecast information that is the basis for calculating adjustment capacity used in formulating an operation plan for a power system. Furthermore, by referring to multiple pieces of weather forecast information that are the basis for calculating the output power required for adjustment capacity, and selecting adjustment capacity based on the geographical correlation of each point, it is possible to formulate an operation plan with a higher degree of accuracy.

[0100] According to this embodiment, the multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 calculates the amount of power required for adjustment power corresponding to multiple pieces of weather forecast information at the same time in the same area, so that the amount of power required for adjustment power can be calculated without using a statistical method. According to a statistical method, past weather forecast information and data on power required for adjustment power corresponding to the weather forecast information are required as past performance data. However, according to this embodiment, the multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 calculates the amount of power required for adjustment power corresponding to multiple pieces of weather forecast information at the same time in the same area, so this past performance data is not required.

[0101] In addition, according to one statistical method of the prior art, the weather was predicted according to a normal distribution and the output of the renewable energy power generation facility was calculated. In order to operate the power system safely, the output of the renewable energy power generation facility was predicted assuming weather conditions with a low probability of occurrence in the normal distribution, for example, weather conditions within 3σ, and adjustment capability was often ensured.

[0102] For this reason, there are cases where an excessive amount of adjustment capacity is secured, which is uneconomical. However, the power system operation planning device 1 according to the present embodiment calculates the amount of power required for adjustment capacity without using a statistical method, and therefore can formulate a more economical operation plan.

[0103] (2) According to this embodiment, the objective function created by the power flow calculation problem creating unit 102 of the power system operation planning device 1 has a term related to the power price of the additional power required for the adjustment capacity in the term related to the power price, and the multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 calculates the amount of the additional power out of the power required for the adjustment capacity, so that it is possible to calculate the amount of the additional power that will be more economical. This makes it possible to formulate a more economical operation plan.

[0104] [2. Second embodiment] [2-1. Composition and Function] The power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the second embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 13. In addition to the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment, the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the second embodiment has an urgency determination unit 111, an emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112, and an emergency control plan calculation problem execution unit 113 in the processing unit 10, and emergency control candidate information 211 in the storage unit 20. The power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the second embodiment differs from the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment in that the processing unit 10 has an urgency determination unit 111, an emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112, and an emergency control plan calculation problem execution unit 113, and the storage unit 20 has emergency control candidate information 211.

[0105] Other configurations of the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the second embodiment are the same as the configuration of the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment shown in Fig. 1. The same components as those of the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment are denoted by the same reference numerals, and duplicated explanations will be omitted.

[0106] The emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112 creates an objective function for a power flow calculation problem having a term related to economic loss in the case where power related to the adjustment capacity is suppressed, corresponding to at least one of the multiple pieces of weather forecast information, and the emergency control plan calculation problem execution unit 113 calculates the amount of suppression of power related to the adjustment capacity based on the objective function created by the emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112.

[0107] Emergency control candidate information 211 is stored in the storage unit 20. The emergency control candidate information 211 is information indicating control candidates that can be secured urgently. The emergency control candidate information 211 stores the maximum adjustable range of adjustment power increase, adjustment power ΔkW price, and adjustment power kWh price for candidates of adjustment power for urgently relieving grid congestion, for each date and time, in association with each node ID. The adjustment power ΔkW price is the cost for securing unit power (ΔkW).

[0108] Moreover, the emergency control candidate information 211 stores data on the maximum renewable energy suppression possible amount and economic loss associated with renewable energy suppression for each date and time in association with each node ID. An example of the emergency control candidate information 211 is shown in FIG.

[0109] The urgency determination unit 111, the emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112, and the emergency control plan calculation problem execution unit 113 are configured as software modules or hardware.

[0110] The urgency judgment unit 111 judges, based on the optimal solution of the optimal power flow calculation problem calculated by the multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103, whether it is necessary to secure adjustment capacity using control candidates that can be secured urgently.

[0111] The emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112 creates each data in the power system based on the data stored in the memory unit 20, and creates an optimal power flow calculation problem for the adjustment capacity to be secured urgently. When it is determined that it is necessary to secure adjustment capacity using a control candidate that can be secured urgently, the emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112 creates an optimal power flow calculation problem. The created optimal power flow calculation problem is sent to the emergency control plan calculation problem execution unit 113.

[0112] The emergency control plan calculation problem executing unit 113 receives the optimal power flow calculation problem created by the emergency control plan calculation problem creating unit 112, and calculates an optimal solution. The emergency control plan calculation problem executing unit 113 transmits the optimal power flow calculation problem to the mathematical problem solver 30, and causes the mathematical problem solver 30 to calculate an optimal solution. The emergency control plan calculation problem executing unit 113 then receives the optimal solution calculated by the mathematical problem solver 30, and selects, from the optimal solutions, the optimal solution to be used in actual operation as the plan, to create an operation plan. The created operation plan is transmitted to the operation plan transmitting unit 105.

[0113] In the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the second embodiment, in addition to the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment, the following parameters are used for calculation.

[0114] [Variables and constants for the optimal load flow problem] An example of variables used in an optimal power flow problem is shown below. p i,m sup : The amount of renewable energy suppression for member m of the ensemble forecast at bus i. p i,m sup ≧0. An example of constants used in optimal power flow calculation problems is shown below. C i sup : Economic loss due to suppression of renewable energy on bus i. This data is included in the emergency control candidate information 211. P i sup,max : The maximum suppressible amount of renewable energy of the bus i. This data is included in the emergency control candidate information 211.

[0115] The operations of the power flow calculation problem creating unit 102, the multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103, the operation plan selecting unit 104, and the operation plan transmitting unit 105 are realized by the program shown in Fig. 14. The program shown in Fig. 14 is built into the processing unit 10 of the power system operation planning apparatus 1.

[0116] The data management unit 101 processes the data input from the input unit 40 and stores it in the memory unit 20 as power system information 201, power generation plan information 202, retail plan information 203, weather uncertainty information 204, supply and demand maintenance adjustment capacity plan information 205, adjustment capacity candidate information 206, controlled equipment information 207, renewable energy equipment information 208, and emergency control candidate information 211.

[0117] (Step S01: Creating an optimal power flow problem) The power flow calculation problem creating unit 102 creates an optimal power flow calculation problem in the same way as the power system operation planning device 1 according to the first embodiment. The operation in step S01 is executed by the power flow calculation problem creating unit 102 of the processing unit 10. The power flow calculation problem creating unit 102 creates an optimal power flow calculation problem shown in (Equation 3).

[0118] (Step S02: Executing the optimal power flow calculation problem) The multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 executes the optimal power flow calculation problem created in step S01 in the same manner as the power system operation planning device 1 according to the first embodiment, and calculates an optimal solution of the objective function according to (Equation 3). The operation according to step S02 is executed by the multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 of the processing unit 10. The optimal solution of the objective function according to (Equation 3) is calculated for an ensemble forecast, which is a plurality of weather forecast information.

[0119] The multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 transmits the optimal power flow calculation problem according to (Equation 3) to (Equation 13) to the mathematical problem solver 30. The mathematical problem solver 30 solves the optimal power flow calculation problem using the primal-dual interior point method or the Newton method. The mathematical problem solver 30 finds Δpg cres (Additional securement of upward adjustment capacity), p g,m cres Calculate (the amount of adjustment power activated).

[0120] The optimal solution of the objective function in (Equation 3) is Δp g cres (Additional reserve of upward control capacity) is calculated as a single solution, regardless of the members of the ensemble forecast. On the other hand, p g,m cres (Amount of adjustment power), s i,m (Input amount of phase modifying equipment i), t ik,m (tap ratio) is calculated for each member m of the ensemble forecast, which is a plurality of weather forecast information. The multiple pattern calculation problem execution unit 103 calculates the optimal solution Δp g cres (Additional securement of upward adjustment capacity), p g,m cres (Adjustment power activation amount) and q g,m gen (reactive power output), v i,m (Voltage), θ i,m (phase), s i,m (Input amount of phase modifying equipment i), t ik,m (tap ratio), α ij,m line (Constraint deviation amount) is received.

[0121] (Step S11: Determination of whether to execute processing by the emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit) Next, the urgency determination unit 111 executes the process of step S11. The operation of step S11 is executed by the urgency determination unit 111 of the processing unit 10. In step S11, the urgency determination unit 111 determines whether or not to execute the process of step S12 by the emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112.

[0122] If it is determined that the emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112 should execute the processing in step S12 (YES in step S11), the program proceeds to step S12, and if it is not determined that the processing in step S12 should be executed (NO in step S11), the program proceeds to step S03.

[0123] For example, in the objective function for the optimal power flow calculation problem (Equation 3), the penalty α ij,m line If there are more than a certain number of members m for which (constraint deviation) is positive, or if there is a penalty α ij,m line When there is a member m whose (constraint deviation amount) is equal to or greater than a predetermined value, it is preferable to calculate the manipulated variable of the adjustment power urgently because the constraint deviation amount is excessive. In such a case, the urgency determination unit 111 determines that the process by the emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112 should be executed.

[0124] Alternatively, by referring to weather forecast information, for example, if a low pressure system is present near the power grid, the urgency determination unit 111 may determine that the emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112 should execute processing.

[0125] (Step S12: Creating an optimal power flow calculation problem for emergency control) When the urgency determination unit 111 determines that the process in step S12 is to be executed, the emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112 executes the process in step S12. The operation in step S12 is executed by the emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112 of the processing unit 10.

[0126] In step S12, the emergency control plan calculation problem generator 112 generates an optimal power flow calculation problem for emergency control. Equation 14 is an example of an objective function related to the optimal power flow calculation problem for emergency control.

number

[0127] In (Equation 14), p(m) is the probability that member m of the ensemble forecast, which is multiple weather forecast information, can be taken. If we assume that the occurrence probability of member m of the ensemble forecast is uniform, then when the number of members is 21, p(m) = 1 / 21 for all.

[0128] Section 1, paragraph C g cres Δp g cres is the electricity price (ΔkW price) when additional upward adjustment capacity is secured. g cres p g,m cres is the electricity price (kWh price) for the effective power output of the control reserve. The second term is D g cres p g,m cres is the expected value of the electricity price (kWh price) for the effective power output of the control capacity multiplied by p(m). ij,m line constitutes a penalty function based on the amount of deviation from the constraint. The third term is Mα ij,m line is the expected value of the penalty function, multiplied by p(m).

[0129] Section 4, paragraph C i sup p i,m sup is the economic loss when renewable energy is suppressed at bus i. The fourth term is C i sup p i,m sup is the expected economic loss from suppressing renewable energy, multiplied by p(m).

[0130] The objective function shown in (Equation 14) is the power price at bus number [G] that is minimized by Δp g cres , p g,m cres and p i,m sup The purpose is to select.

[0131] The constraints for the optimal power flow calculation problem are explained below. The AC power flow equation for active power is shown in (Equation 15). i,m load is the term relating to the decrease in power generation due to the suppression of renewable energy.

number

[0132] The constraint on the maximum suppressible amount of renewable energy for bus i is shown in (Equation 16).

number

[0133] The constraint equations (4) to (13) shown in the first embodiment are also applied to the adjustment capacity that can be secured in an emergency in the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the second embodiment. The objective function for the optimal power flow calculation problem for emergency control according to (14) may be applied only to the member m for which a penalty has occurred in the above step S02 among the set [R] of members m of the ensemble forecast.

[0134] (Step S13: Executing the optimal power flow calculation problem for emergency control) The emergency control plan calculation problem executing unit 113 executes the optimal power flow calculation problem for emergency control created in step S12, and calculates an optimal solution of the objective function according to (Equation 14). The operation according to step S13 is executed by the emergency control plan calculation problem executing unit 113 of the processing unit 10.

[0135] The emergency control plan calculation problem executing unit 113 transmits the optimal power flow calculation problem according to (Equation 14) to (Equation 16) and (Equation 4) to (Equation 13) to the mathematical problem solver 30. The mathematical problem solver 30 solves the optimal power flow calculation problem using the primal-dual interior point method or the Newton method. The mathematical problem solver 30 finds Δp that satisfies the constraint conditions according to (Equation 15) to (Equation 16) and (Equation 4) to (Equation 13) as the optimal solution of the objective function according to (Equation 14). g cres(Additional securement of upward adjustment capacity), p g,m cres (Amount of adjustment power activated), p i,m sup Calculate the amount of renewable energy suppression.

[0136] q g,m gen (reactive power output), v i,m (Voltage), θ i,m (phase), s i,m (Input amount of phase modifying equipment i), t ik,m (tap ratio), α ij,m line (Constraint deviation amount) is Δp g cres (Additional securement of upward adjustment capacity), p g,m cres (Amount of adjustment power activated), p i,m sup It is calculated dependently by calculating (renewable energy suppression amount).

[0137] The emergency control plan calculation problem execution unit 113 calculates the optimal solution Δp g cres (Additional securement of upward adjustment capacity), p g,m cres (Amount of adjustment power activated), p i,m sup (Renewable energy suppression amount) and q g,m gen (reactive power output), v i,m (Voltage), θ i,m (phase), s i,m (Input amount of phase modifying equipment i), t ik,m (tap ratio), α ij,m line (Constraint deviation amount) is received.

[0138] (Step S03: Selection of a solution for the operation plan) Next, the operation plan selection unit 104 executes the process of step S03. The operation of step S03 is executed by the operation plan selection unit 104 of the processing unit 10. The operation plan selection unit 104 adds Δp g cresSelect the solution for (additional secured upward adjustment capacity).

[0139] When the urgency determination unit 111 determines that the process in step S12 is to be executed, the operation plan selection unit 104 further adds p to the operation plan based on the optimal solution calculated in step S13. i,m sup Select the solution for (renewable energy suppression amount).

[0140] (Step S04: Sending operation plan) Next, the operation plan transmission unit 105 transmits the operation plan selected in step S03 to the output unit 50. The operation plan transmission unit 105 of the processing unit 10 performs the operation plan selected in step S04. The operation plan transmission unit 105 transmits the operation plan to the output unit 50 via the data management unit 101.

[0141] The display unit 106 displays a list of optimal solutions of the objective function calculated in step S02, and the operation plan selected in step S03. The display unit 106 also displays weather forecast information used in the operation plan.

[0142] The above is the operation of the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the present embodiment.

[0143] In the above, the power system operation planning device 1 is provided with an emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112 and an emergency control plan calculation problem execution unit 113 in addition to the power flow calculation problem creation unit 102 and the multiple pattern calculation problem execution unit 103. However, the power system operation planning device 1 may be provided with the emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112 and the emergency control plan calculation problem execution unit 113 instead of the power flow calculation problem creation unit 102 and the multiple pattern calculation problem execution unit 103. Alternatively, the power system operation planning device 1 may be configured so that the power flow calculation problem creation unit 102 executes the processing of the emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112, and the multiple pattern calculation problem execution unit 103 executes the processing of the emergency control plan calculation problem execution unit 113.

[0144] [2-2. Effects] (1) According to this embodiment, the emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112 of the power system operation planning device 1 creates an objective function for a power flow calculation problem having a term related to an economic loss in the case where the power on the adjustment capacity is suppressed, corresponding to at least one of the multiple pieces of weather forecast information, and the emergency control plan calculation problem execution unit 113 calculates, based on the objective function created by the emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112, a suppression amount of the power on the adjustment capacity, Δp i,m sup Since the system calculates the (renewable energy suppression amount), a clear calculation procedure can be used to calculate the operation amount of the adjusting capacity, including the renewable energy equipment, that corresponds to the output of the renewable energy equipment, which fluctuates depending on the weather.

[0145] The emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112 creates an objective function for a power flow calculation problem having a term related to economic loss in the case of suppressing power, and the emergency control plan calculation problem execution unit 113 calculates the amount of power suppression for adjustment capacity based on the objective function created by the emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112, so that a more economical suppression amount can be calculated.

[0146] According to this embodiment, the power system operation planning device 1 calculates the suppression amount for emergency control based on a clear calculation basis, and therefore can provide a clear calculation basis to the electric utility. Since the suppression for emergency control causes economic loss to the electric utility, there are cases where it is necessary to provide a clear calculation basis to the electric utility.

[0147] (2) According to this embodiment, the power system operation planning device 1 includes, as a calculation problem creating unit, a power flow calculation problem creating unit 102 that creates an objective function for a power flow calculation problem corresponding to a plurality of pieces of weather forecast information, and an emergency control plan calculation problem creating unit 112 that creates an objective function for a power flow calculation problem corresponding to emergency power control corresponding to at least one of the plurality of pieces of weather forecast information, and includes, as a calculation problem executing unit, a multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 that calculates the magnitude of power required for adjustment capability corresponding to a plurality of pieces of weather forecast information at the same time in the same area based on the objective function created by the power flow calculation problem creating unit 102, and an emergency control plan calculation problem executing unit 113 that calculates the magnitude of power required for adjustment capability corresponding to emergency power control based on the objective function created by the emergency control plan calculation problem creating unit 112, so that the magnitude of power required for adjustment capability with higher accuracy can be calculated. This makes it possible to control the power system more stably.

[0148] The multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit 103 calculates the magnitude of power required for adjustment capability corresponding to multiple pieces of weather forecast information for the same time in the same region based on the objective function created by the power flow calculation problem creating unit 102, and then the emergency control plan calculation problem executing unit 113 calculates the magnitude of power required for adjustment capability corresponding to emergency power control based on the objective function created by the emergency control plan calculation problem creating unit 112, so that the magnitude of power required for adjustment capability secured urgently can be reduced. This makes it possible to control the power system more stably. Also, since the securing of power required for excessive adjustment capability is reduced, the power system can be operated more economically.

[0149] [3. Third embodiment] [3-1. Composition and Function] The power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the third embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 16. The power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the third embodiment has a confusion matrix creation unit 114 in the processing unit 10 and system congestion history information 212 in the storage unit 20, in addition to the components of the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment. The power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the third embodiment differs from the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment in that it has a confusion matrix creation unit 114 in the processing unit 10 and system congestion history information 212 in the storage unit 20.

[0150] Other configurations of the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the third embodiment are the same as the configuration of the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment shown in Fig. 1. The same components as those of the power system operation planning apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment are denoted by the same reference numerals, and duplicated explanations will be omitted.

[0151] The confusion matrix creation unit 114 of the power system operation planning device 1 creates a confusion matrix showing the relationship between the system congestion prediction and the actual system congestion based on the prediction of system congestion in the power system determined based on the magnitude of power required for adjustment capacity corresponding to multiple pieces of weather forecast information calculated by the multiple pattern calculation problem execution unit 103, and the actual system congestion related to operational performance.

[0152] The confusion matrix creation unit 114 stores in the storage unit 20 the presence or absence of system congestion as system congestion history information 212, based on the optimal solution of the optimal power flow calculation problem calculated by the multiple pattern calculation problem execution unit 103. In addition, the confusion matrix creation unit 114 stores in the storage unit 20 the presence or absence of system congestion on the day input from the input unit 40 as system congestion history information 212.

[0153] An example of the system congestion history information 212 is shown in Fig. 17. The system congestion history information 212 stores information on the branch ID, the members or results of the ensemble forecast, and the presence or absence of system congestion for each date and time. Regarding the information on the presence or absence of system congestion, if αij, mline>0, it is determined that there is system congestion, and otherwise it is determined that there is no congestion.

[0154] In addition, the confusion matrix creation unit 114 creates a confusion matrix by referring to the system congestion history information 212. A confusion matrix is ​​a matrix that summarizes the quantities where the predicted system congestion and the actual system congestion match and the quantities where they do not match. Confusion matrices are often used to summarize the calculation results of classification problems in machine learning.

[0155] An example of a confusion matrix is ​​shown in Figure 18. Figure 18 is an example of a confusion matrix for 24 hours x 30 days = 720 hours. In the example of Figure 18, out of the 720 hours, there are 520 hours where the calculation result is "no grid congestion" and the actual result is "no grid congestion." Similarly, the results for all four combinations are expressed in matrix form. In Figure 18, "calculation result" corresponds to "prediction of congestion in the power system" and "actual result" corresponds to "actual congestion in the power system."

[0156] In addition, when the calculation result of the presence or absence of system congestion by the ensemble forecast differs depending on the member as in the example of FIG. 17, it is determined that "system congestion exists" when there is one or more members with "system congestion exists." The method of determining the presence or absence of system congestion is not limited to the above. For example, it may be determined that "system congestion exists" when there are a predetermined specified number or more members with "system congestion exists."

[0157] The target period for creating the confusion matrix is ​​specified by the user through the input unit 40. In addition, the confusion matrix may be created for each branch, or may be created for all branches at once.

[0158] The confusion matrix creation unit 114 transmits the created confusion matrix to the display unit 106, and the display unit 106 displays the confusion matrix. In addition, the confusion matrix creation unit 114 transmits the created confusion matrix to the output unit 50.

[0159] [3-2. Effects] According to this embodiment, the power system operation planning device 1 includes a confusion matrix creation unit 114 that creates a confusion matrix showing the relationship between the congestion prediction and the congestion record based on the congestion prediction of the power system determined based on the magnitude of the power required for the adjustment capability corresponding to multiple weather forecast information calculated by the multiple pattern calculation problem execution unit 103 and the congestion record related to the operation record, so that the user can visually grasp the congestion prediction accuracy of the power system. Also, the user can grasp the tendency when the prediction result of the presence or absence of congestion in the power system is not correct.

[0160] When the calculation result in the confusion matrix is ​​"no congestion" and the actual result is "congestion," it indicates that the amount of adjustment capacity planned in advance is insufficient and congestion has occurred. Based on the confusion matrix created by the confusion matrix creation unit 114, the system operator can determine whether to take additional measures for the branch where the amount of adjustment capacity is insufficient.

[0161] [4. Other embodiments] Although the embodiments including the modified examples have been described, these embodiments are presented as examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. These embodiments can be implemented in various other forms, and various omissions, substitutions, and modifications can be made without departing from the gist of the invention. These embodiments and their modifications are included in the scope of the invention and its equivalents as well as in the scope and gist of the invention. The following is an example.

[0162] (1) Each unit in the above embodiment may be realized by steps related to a computer program for a power system operation planning device or procedures related to a power system operation planning method. The steps executed by the power flow calculation problem creation unit 102 or the emergency control plan calculation problem creation unit 112 may be a calculation problem creation step, and the procedures executed may be realized by the calculation problem creation procedure. Step S01 corresponds to the calculation problem creation step or the calculation problem creation procedure. The steps executed by the multiple pattern calculation problem execution unit 103 or the emergency control plan calculation problem execution unit 113 may be a calculation problem execution step, and the procedures executed may be realized by the calculation problem execution procedure. Step S02 corresponds to the calculation problem execution step or the calculation problem execution procedure.

[0163] (2) The data stored in the storage unit 20 is not limited to the above embodiment. In addition to the above embodiment, any data may be stored in the storage unit 20.

[0164] (3) In the above embodiment, α ij,m line is defined as the constraint deviation amount for the active power flow of the branch connecting nodes i and j, when the starting point is i and the end point is j. Variables that represent the constraint deviation amount can be introduced in a similar manner for other constraint conditions. For example, the variable α i,m v can be introduced. [Explanation of symbols]

[0165] 1. Power system operation planning device 10 Processing section 20...Storage section 30. Mathematical problem solver 40 Input section 50 Output section 101 Data Management Department 102 Power flow calculation problem creation section 103...Multiple pattern calculation problem execution unit 104 Operation plan selection section 105 Operational Planning Transmission Unit 106...Display section 111...Urgency Judgment Department 112 Emergency Control Planning Calculation Problem Creation Department 113 Emergency Control Planning Calculation Problem Execution Department 114...Confusion matrix creation part 201...Power system information 202 Power generation planning information 203 Retail Planning Information 204 Weather Uncertainty Information 205 Supply and Demand Adjustment Plan Information 206... Adjustment power candidate information 207 Controlled Device Information 208···Renewable energy equipment information 211 Emergency Control Candidate Information 212... System congestion history information

Claims

1. A calculation problem creation unit that creates an objective function for a power flow calculation problem having a term related to the power price of power related to adjustment power, which is an output from a power facility used for adjustment of a power system including a renewable energy power generation facility; a calculation problem execution unit that calculates the magnitude of power required for the adjustment power corresponding to a plurality of pieces of weather forecast information for the same area at the same time based on the objective function created by the calculation problem creation unit, outputting an operation plan based on the power required for the adjustment capability, which is based on a plurality of pieces of weather forecast information calculated by the calculation problem executing unit, and the plurality of pieces of weather forecast information on which the calculation of the power required for the adjustment capability is based; Power system operation planning device.

2. the objective function created by the calculation problem creation unit has a term related to the power price of additional power required for the adjustment capacity in a term related to the power price, The calculation problem executing unit calculates the magnitude of the additional power out of the power required for the adjustment capacity. The power system operation planning device according to claim 1 .

3. the calculation problem creation unit creates the objective function for a power flow calculation problem having a term related to an economic loss in a case where power related to the adjustment capacity is suppressed, the objective function corresponding to at least one of the plurality of pieces of weather forecast information; The calculation problem executing unit calculates an amount of suppression of power required for adjustment capacity based on the objective function created by the calculation problem creating unit. The power system operation planning device according to claim 1 .

4. the computation problem creation unit comprises: a power flow computation problem creation unit that creates an objective function for a power flow computation problem corresponding to a plurality of pieces of weather forecast information; and an emergency control plan computation problem creation unit that creates the objective function for a power flow computation problem corresponding to emergency power control, which corresponds to at least one of the plurality of pieces of weather forecast information; the calculation problem executing unit includes a multiple pattern calculation problem executing unit that calculates a magnitude of power required for the adjustment power corresponding to a plurality of pieces of weather forecast information at the same time in the same area based on the objective function created by the power flow calculation problem creating unit, and an emergency control plan calculation problem executing unit that calculates a magnitude of power required for the adjustment power corresponding to the emergency power control based on the objective function created by the emergency control plan calculation problem creating unit, The power system operation planning device according to claim 1 .

5. a confusion matrix creation unit that creates a confusion matrix showing a relationship between the prediction of system congestion of the power system, which is determined based on the magnitude of the power required for the adjustment power corresponding to a plurality of pieces of weather forecast information calculated by the calculation problem execution unit, and based on the actual results of system congestion related to operation results; The power system operation planning device according to claim 1 .

6. On the computer, A calculation problem creation step of creating an objective function for a power flow calculation problem having a term related to the power price of power related to adjustment power, which is an output from a power facility used for adjustment, in a power system including a renewable energy power generation facility; a calculation problem execution step of calculating the magnitude of the power required for the adjustment power corresponding to a plurality of pieces of weather forecast information for the same area at the same time based on the objective function created in the calculation problem creation step; outputting an operation plan based on the power required for the adjustment capability, which is based on a plurality of pieces of weather forecast information calculated in the calculation problem execution step, and the plurality of pieces of weather forecast information on which the calculation of the power required for the adjustment capability is based; A computer program for a power system operation planning device.

7. A calculation problem creation step for creating an objective function for a load flow calculation problem having a term related to the power price of power related to adjustment power, which is the output from a power facility used for adjustment, in a power system including a renewable energy power generation facility; A calculation problem execution procedure for calculating the magnitude of power required for the regulating power corresponding to a plurality of pieces of weather forecast information for the same area at the same time based on the objective function created by the calculation problem creation procedure, outputting an operation plan based on the power required for the adjustment capability, which is based on a plurality of pieces of weather forecast information calculated by the calculation problem execution procedure, and the plurality of pieces of weather forecast information on which the calculation of the power required for the adjustment capability is based; Power system operation planning method.

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