Request amount calculation system, demand response system, and request amount calculation method

Abstract

To provide a method for allocating the amount of request to a user, so as to achieve the amount of requirement for DR from a general power transmission and distribution business operator.SOLUTION: A request amount calculation system comprises: a prediction unit that predicts a user's ability to respond to a demand response requirement; and an allocation unit that allocates, to the user, the amount of request for power suppression according to the response ability predicted by the prediction unit.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a request amount calculation system, a demand response system, and a request amount calculation method. [Background technology]

[0002] In order to respond to a demand response request (a request to reduce received power) from a general electricity transmission and distribution utility, the aggregator uses a demand response system (hereinafter, demand response may be referred to as DR) to notify the consumers under its control of the requested amount based on the requested amount and contract terms. The requested amount is the amount of power that each consumer should reduce in response to the DR request. Specifically, the DR system generates a request amount for each consumer and notifies the edge device installed in each consumer of the requested amount. The edge device then generates control commands for each piece of equipment within the consumer to satisfy the request and control each piece of equipment. The edge device also monitors the operating status of each piece of equipment and the state of power demand within the consumer.

[0003] Patent document 1 discloses a method of calculating the standard deviation of the difference between the operator's expected demand and the consumer's actual demand per unit time for each of multiple consumers based on historical information of past received power, ranking the multiple consumers based on the calculated standard deviation, and using the assigned ranks to select consumers. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2022-89602 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] Generally, when an aggregator generates a request amount for each consumer, it generates the request amount based on the request amount from the general electricity transmission and distribution utility and the contract conditions of each consumer. With this method, the request amount is not generated taking into account whether each consumer can actually fulfill the request, so there is a possibility that some consumers will not be able to fulfill the request when an actual DR request is made, and the DR request amount from the general electricity transmission and distribution utility cannot be fulfilled.

[0006] The present disclosure provides a request amount calculation system, a demand response system, and a request amount calculation method that can solve the above problems. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] The request amount calculation system according to the present disclosure includes a prediction unit that predicts a consumer's ability to respond to a demand response request, and an allocation unit that allocates a requested amount of power reduction to the consumer in accordance with the ability to respond predicted by the prediction unit.

[0008] The demand response system according to the present disclosure includes the above-described requested quantity calculation system, a management device that notifies the edge equipment of the consumer of the requested quantity, and an edge device that controls the equipment of the consumer to perform power reduction indicated by the requested quantity.

[0009] The request amount calculation method according to the present disclosure includes a step of predicting a consumer's ability to respond to a demand response request, and a step of allocating a requested amount of power reduction to the consumer in accordance with the ability to respond predicted in the prediction step. [Effects of the Invention]

[0010] According to the request amount calculation system, demand response system, and request amount calculation method disclosed herein, it is possible to allocate request amounts to consumers so as to achieve the DR request amount from the general electricity transmission and distribution company. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0011] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a selection system according to a first embodiment. [Figure 2] 10A and 10B are diagrams illustrating a process for adjusting a request amount based on a response record according to the first embodiment. [Figure 3] 4 is a flowchart showing an example of a customer selection process according to the first embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of a selection system according to a second embodiment. [Figure 5A] FIG. 10 is a first diagram illustrating a response possibility determination according to the second embodiment. [Figure 5B] FIG. 10 is a first diagram illustrating a response possibility determination according to the second embodiment. [Figure 6] 10 is a flowchart showing an example of a customer selection process according to the second embodiment. [Figure 7] FIG. 10 is a block diagram showing an outline of a selection system according to a third embodiment. [Figure 8] 11 is a flowchart showing an example of a customer selection process according to the third embodiment. [Figure 9] FIG. 2 illustrates an example of a hardware configuration of a selection system according to each embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0012] First Embodiment Hereinafter, a method for selecting consumers who will participate in a DR request and setting a requested amount according to the first embodiment of the present disclosure will be described with reference to FIGS. (composition) FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a selection system according to the first embodiment. The selection system 100 includes a general electricity transmission and distribution company system 1, a demand response system 2 (hereinafter referred to as the DR system 2) managed by an aggregator that adjusts the electricity supply and demand of consumers to satisfy DR requests from the general electricity transmission and distribution company system 1, and consumers 3A to 3N managed by the aggregator. The general electricity transmission and distribution company system 1 transmits a DR request signal. The DR request signal includes information such as a DR request amount indicating the extent to which the received power should be restricted and a time period during which the received power restriction should be performed. The DR system 2 includes a contract information DB 21, a management device 22, a response record DB 23, and DR system edge devices 24A to 24N (the DR system edge devices 24B to 24N are not shown). The contract information DB21 stores contract information between the aggregator and each of the consumers 3A to 3N. The contract information includes a contract suppression value indicating how much power each of the consumers 3A to 3N will suppress when making a DR request. The contract information DB21 may define a contract suppression value whose magnitude corresponds to the DR request amount. In general, the requested amount that the aggregator requests each of the consumers 3A to 3N to supply is often set to the contract suppression value of each of the consumers 3A to 3N registered in the contract information DB21. The responsive performance DB 23 stores responsive performance information indicating how much of the contract suppression value set in the contract information for each of the consumers 3A to 3N was actually achieved. The responsive performance information is, for example, the responsive performance amount that the consumer 3A actually achieved in response to past DR requests. Assume that the requested amount from the aggregator to the consumer 3A in the past n DR requests was 100 kW each time. If the requested amount of 100 kW was actually achieved, 100 kW, 90 kW, 95 kW, 85 kW, and so on, the responsive performance DB 23 stores the responsive performance amounts 100 kW, 90 kW, 95 kW, 85 kW, and so on for the consumer 3A for the n requests, in association with the date and time of the DR request and the requested amount (100 kW). The same applies to the consumers 3B to 3N. It should be noted that the degree of power reduction achieved by a certain consumer 3A etc. can be ascertained from the power consumption of each consumer 3A etc., which is tallied by the DR system edge device 24A at the time of a DR request. The DR system edge device 24A tallies the power consumption of each consumer 3A, calculates the responsive performance amount, and transmits it to the server-side management device 22. The management device 22 registers the responsive performance amount of each consumer 3A to 3N in the responsive performance DB 23.

[0013] Management device 22 allocates and notifies each of the consumers 3A to 3N of the requested amount. Management device 22 also calculates the correlation between the response record and the requested amount, which is obtained from past response records, based on the response record information registered in response record DB 23, and adjusts the requested amount for each of consumers 3A to 3N using the correlation coefficient of the correlation. For example, if the correlation coefficient of the response record and the requested amount, which is obtained from the past response record of a certain consumer, is 0.9, the requested amount to be notified is adjusted based on the assumption that the consumer can only be expected to respond 90% of the requested amount.

[0014] With reference to Figure 2, the process of adjusting the requested amount to each consumer 3A etc. based on the response record will be described. In Figure 2, the vertical axis represents the response record (%) and the horizontal axis represents the requested amount (kW). The correlation of the response record with respect to the requested amount refers to the ratio of the response record with respect to the requested amount (= response record / requested amount) based on past request amounts and response record amounts. For example, if the requested amount is 1000 kW and the response record is 900 kW, the ratio of the actual amount to the request is 0.9. Here, the following methods can be considered as a method for calculating the actual amount (correlation of the response record). (1) Latest performance ratio, (2) Average of performance ratios over the past n times, (3) Maximum of performance ratios over the past n times, (4) Minimum of performance ratios over the past N times, (5) Average of performance ratios over the past N months, (6) Maximum of performance ratios over the past N months, (7) Minimum of performance ratios over the past N months, (8) Average of performance ratios over the past year, (9) Maximum of performance ratios over the past year, (10) Minimum of performance ratios over the past year, (11) Average of all performance ratios over the past years, (12) Maximum of all performance ratios over the past years, (13) Minimum of all performance ratios over the past years. However, the calculation method of performance ratios is not limited to (1) to (13) and other methods may be used. Furthermore, the DR system 2 may include a means for setting how to calculate the correlation of responsive performance.

[0015] The DR system edge device 24A is a computer terminal such as a server installed at the consumer 3A. The consumer 3A includes a load 3A1 configured with equipment requiring limited control, a power generation facility 3A2 configured with equipment requiring limited control, such as photovoltaic (PV) power generation, a load 3A3 configured with equipment requiring easy control, a power generation facility 3A4 configured with equipment requiring easy control, such as a turbine or engine, and a chargeable and dischargeable power storage facility 3A5. When a DR request is received, the consumer 3A responds to the request by reducing the power consumption of the easily controllable load 3A3, generating power with the easily controllable power generation facility 3A4, and discharging power from the power storage facility 3A5. For example, when a request for power reduction of 100 kW is received (requested power amount: 100 kW), the consumer 3A reduces the power consumption of the load 3A3 by 10 kW and generates 90 kW of power by generating power with the power generation facility 3A4 and discharging power from the power storage facility 3A5, thereby responding to the power reduction of 100 kW. To perform such power reduction, the DR system edge device 24A determines the allocation of power consumption to be reduced by the load 3A3, power to be generated by the power generation facility 3A4, and power to be discharged by the power storage facility 3A5. The DR system edge device 24A then transmits control information to the controller 3A10 controlling the load 3A3, for example, instructing the controller 3A10 to reduce the power consumption by 10 kW in accordance with the determined allocation. Based on this instruction information, the controller 3A10 controls the load 3A3 so that the power consumption by the load 3A3 is reduced by 10 kW. The controller 3A10 also transmits measurement information, such as the power used by the load 3A3, to the DR system edge device 24A. Similarly, the DR system edge device 24A transmits control information to the controller 3A11 controlling the power generation facility 3A4, instructing the controller 3A11 to generate a predetermined amount of power out of 90 kW. Based on this instruction information, the controller 3A11 controls the power generation facility 3A4 so that the power generation facility 3A4 generates the predetermined amount of power. Furthermore, the controller 3A11 transmits measurement information such as the power generated by the power generation facility 3A4 to the DR system edge device 24A. The DR system edge device 24A transmits control information to the controller 3A12, which controls the power storage facility 3A5, to prompt the power storage facility 3A5 to discharge a predetermined amount of the 90 kW. Based on this instruction information, the controller 3A12 controls the power storage facility 3A5 so that the power storage facility 3A5 discharges the predetermined amount.Furthermore, the controller 3A12 transmits measurement information such as power discharged from the power storage facility 3A5 to the DR system edge device 24A. In addition, a meter 3A7 provided near a power receiving point 3A6 of the power system transmits measurement information such as measured power to the DR system edge device 24A. A meter 3A8 that measures power supplied to the load 3A1 transmits measurement information such as measured power to the DR system edge device 24A. A meter 3A9 that measures power generated by the power generation facility 3A2 transmits measurement information such as measured power to the DR system edge device 24A. In this way, the DR system edge device 24A collects information on power consumed or supplied (such as power generation or discharge) by various facilities in the consumer 3A, and transmits the information to the management device 22 on the server side. The DR system edge device 24A also has a function of determining how to respond to the power suppression amount (request amount) that the consumer 3A should bear, which is calculated by the management device 22 based on the DR request from the general electricity transmission and distribution company, and controlling the load 3A3, the power generation equipment 3A4, and the power storage equipment 3A5. The consumers 3B to 3N are also provided with equipment having the same function as the DR system edge device 24A.

[0016] (operation) Next, the operation of the selection system 100 of this embodiment will be described. FIG. 3 is a flowchart illustrating an example of the customer selection process according to the first embodiment. First, the DR system 2 receives a DR request amount from the general electricity transmission and distribution company (step S11). Specifically, the general electricity transmission and distribution company system 1 transmits the DR request amount to the DR system 2, and the management device 22 receives the DR request amount. Next, the management device 22 refers to the contract information of each of the consumers 3A to 3N (step S12). The management device 22 reads out the contract information of the consumers 3A to 3N from the contract information DB 21. The contract information includes a contract suppression value. Next, the management device 22 refers to the responsive performance information of each consumer (step S13). The management device 22 reads out the past responsive performance information of the consumers 3A to 3N from the responsive performance information DB 23. Next, the management device 22 allocates the requested amount to each consumer 3A, etc. based on the contract information (step S14). For example, the management device 22 allocates the requested amount to the consumer 3A according to the contract information read out in step S12. Next, the management device 22 adjusts the requested amount to each consumer 3A, etc. based on the responsive performance information (step S15). For example, for the consumer 3A, the management device 22 calculates the responsive performance amount / request amount using the past request amount included in the responsive performance information read out in step S13 and the corresponding responsive performance amount, and calculates the correlation of the responsive performance (performance ratio). Then, the management device 22 adjusts the request amount by multiplying the request amount allocated to the consumer 3A in step S14 by the calculated correlation of the responsive performance of the consumer 3A. Next, the management device 22 compares the DR request amount received in step S11 with the total of the adjusted request amounts allocated to each consumer 3A, etc. (step S16). If the total of the adjusted request amounts allocated to each consumer 3A, etc. is less than the DR request amount (step S16; No), the management device 22 repeats the process from step S14 for the next consumer 3B, etc.

[0017] If the total of the adjusted requested amounts allocated to each consumer 3A, etc. is equal to or greater than the DR request amount (step S16; Yes), the management device 22 confirms the DR participating consumer (step S17). The management device 22 confirms (selects) the consumer 3A, etc., for which the request amount adjustment was performed in step S15, as the DR participating consumer. Next, the management device 22 notifies the DR participating consumer of the requested amount (step S18). The management device 22 notifies each of the DR participating consumers selected in step S17 of the adjusted requested amount calculated for that consumer in the processing of step S15.

[0018] (effect) In a conventional method for allocating a DR request amount, a request amount for each consumer 3A, etc. is generated based on the DR request amount and contract information without evaluating whether the consumer 3A, etc., to which the request is made, can fulfill the request. Therefore, there is a possibility that some consumers will not be able to fulfill the request when the DR request is actually made. In contrast, according to the present embodiment, when generating a request amount for each consumer 3A, etc., a manageable amount is predicted based on past response records, and the request amount is generated using the predicted manageable amount. This prevents the occurrence of consumers 3A, etc., who cannot fulfill the request when the DR request is actually made, and reduces the possibility of being unable to fulfill the DR request amount from the general electricity transmission and distribution utility. In step S15, the management device 22 calculates the response actual amount / request amount for the consumer 3A using the past request amount included in the response actual amount information read out in step S13 and the corresponding response actual amount, and calculates the correlation (actual ratio) of the response actual amount, which is an example of a process in which the prediction unit predicts the response capacity of the consumer. In step S15, the management device 22 adjusts the request amount by multiplying the request amount allocated to the consumer 3A in step S14 by the calculated correlation of the response actual amount for the consumer 3A, and in step S17, determines the consumer 3A, etc. to which the adjusted request amount is allocated as a DR participating consumer. This is an example of a process in which the allocation unit allocates, to the consumer, a request amount for power suppression according to the response capacity predicted by the prediction unit.

[0019] Second Embodiment Next, a method for selecting consumers participating in a DR request and setting a requested amount according to the second embodiment of the present disclosure will be described with reference to FIGS. (composition) FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of a selection system according to the second embodiment. The selection system 100a includes a general electricity transmission and distribution company system 1, a DR system 2a, and consumers 3A to 3N. The selection system 100a differs from the selection system 100 of the first embodiment in that the DR system 2a does not include a response record DB 23, and a DR system edge device 24A includes a response feasibility information generation function 241A that is a function for determining whether or not to respond (participate) in a DR request from a consumer 3A, but other configurations are similar to those of the first embodiment.

[0020] Next, the response availability information generating function 241A will be described with reference to FIGS. 5A and 5B. The DR system edge device 24A can grasp the operating status of the load 3A3, the power generation equipment 3A4, and the power storage equipment 3A5 from the measurement information transmitted from the controllers 3A10, 3A11, and 3A12, respectively, and grasp the spare capacity of these equipment. For example, if the maximum output of the power generation equipment 3A4 is 1 MW and the actual output is 0.7 MW, this means that there is a spare capacity of 0.3 MW, and a maximum of 0.3 MW can be allocated to responding to a DR request. The power that can be allocated to a DR request, such as the spare capacity at this time, is called the available contribution amount. The response availability information generating function 241A calculates the available contribution amount for each predetermined unit time based on, for example, the operating performance of the power generation equipment 3A4, etc., for the past year. Furthermore, for the load 3A3, the suppressible amount per unit time may be calculated based on the load performance over the past year, the demand plan, and rules within the consumer 3A (for example, relaxing the air conditioner's temperature setting by X degrees when a DR request is made). The response availability information generating function 241A then sums the contributable amount and the suppressible amount per unit time and calculates the frequency distribution of the summed value. The response availability information generating function 241A also calculates the correlation of the response achievement probability. The correlation of the response achievement probability refers to the degree of fulfillment of the contributable amount relative to a predetermined expected request amount (= contributable amount / expected request amount). The expected request amount is, for example, the request amount based on the contract (contract suppression value). Graphs 51A and 51B shown in Figures 5A and 5B show the correlation of the response achievement probability obtained by such calculations, with the horizontal axis of graphs 51A and 51B representing the expected request amount and the vertical axis representing the response achievement probability. The response possibility information generating function 241A calculates the relationship between the expected request amount and the response achievement probability shown in graphs 51A and 51B from the past operation status of the power generation equipment 3A4, etc. used in the DR request and the past suppression status of the load 3A3, and stores this information. Next, the response possibility information generating function 241A sets the expected request amount corresponding to a predetermined threshold as the maximum request amount that can be requested from the consumer 3A (referred to as the response request limit amount). This predetermined threshold can be set arbitrarily, but may also be set, for example, based on a contract between each consumer 3A, etc. and the aggregator. For example, if there is a contract that considers it successful if power suppression of 90% of the requested amount is achieved, the arbitrarily set threshold may be set to 90%.Next, the response availability information generating function 241A sets a participation availability judgment value. The participation availability judgment value can be set arbitrarily or may be set based on a contract between each consumer 3A and the aggregator. For example, if there is a contract stipulating that a penalty will be imposed if 80% of the requested amount is not achieved, the participation availability judgment value may be set to 80% of the contract suppression value. Furthermore, the participation availability judgment value may be set to a value corresponding to the DR request amount each time a DR request is made. The response availability information generating function 241A determines that a response is possible if the response request limit amount is equal to or greater than the participation availability judgment value, and determines that a response is impossible if the response request limit amount is less than the participation availability judgment value, and notifies the management device 22 of the judgment result. When it is determined that a response is possible as in the example shown in FIG. 5A, the response request limit amount becomes the requested amount for that consumer. When it is determined that a response is impossible as in the example shown in FIG. 5B, if it is determined that a response is impossible because the response request limit amount is below the participation availability judgment value, the consumer is excluded from participating consumers as a consumer who cannot be expected to respond to DR. 5A and 5B is called "response availability information." The response availability information generating function 241A stores the response availability information.

[0021] (operation) Next, the operation of the selection system 100a of this embodiment will be described. 6 is a flowchart showing an example of a customer selection process according to the second embodiment. The same processes as those in the first embodiment are assigned the same reference numerals and will be briefly described. First, the DR system 2 receives a DR request amount from a general electricity transmission and distribution utility (step S11). Next, the management device 22 refers to the contract information of each of the consumers 3A to 3N (step S12). Next, the response availability information generation function 241A refers to the response availability information of each consumer (step S13a). The response availability information generation function 241A refers to the response availability information, such as the graph 51A illustrated in FIG. 5A, for example. Next, the management device 22 allocates the requested amount to each consumer 3A, etc. based on the contract information (step S14). Next, the management device 22 adjusts the requested amount to each consumer 3A, etc. based on the response availability information (step S15a). The response availability information generation function 241A sets a participation availability determination value and determines whether or not to respond for the consumer 3A by the method described with reference to FIGS. 5A and 5B. The response availability information generation function 241A transmits the determination result and the response request limit amount to the management device 22. If the determination result indicates that response is possible, the management device 22 adjusts the request amount to the consumer 3A with the response request limit amount as the upper limit. For example, if the request amount based on the contract allocated in step S14 is larger than the response request limit amount, the management device 22 sets the response request limit amount to the request amount to the consumer 3A. If the determination result indicates that response is not possible, the management device 22 sets the request amount to the consumer 3A to 0 (excluding the consumer 3A from participating consumers). Next, the management device 22 compares the DR request amount received in step S11 with the total of the adjusted request amounts allocated to each consumer 3A, etc. (step S16). If the total of the adjusted request amounts allocated to each consumer 3A, etc. is less than the DR request amount (step S16; No), the management device 22 repeats the process from step S14 for the next consumer 3B, etc.

[0022] If the total of the adjusted requested amounts allocated to each consumer 3A, etc. is equal to or greater than the DR request amount (step S16; Yes), the management device 22 determines the DR participating consumer (step S17). The management device 22 selects the consumer 3A, etc. for which the request amount adjustment was performed in step S15 as the DR participating consumer. Next, the management device 22 notifies the DR participating consumer of the requested amount (step S18). The management device 22 notifies each of the DR participating consumers selected in step S17 of the adjusted requested amount calculated for the consumer 3A, etc. in the processing of step S15.

[0023] (effect) As described above, in the second embodiment, not all of the contracted consumers 3A to 3N are treated as DR participating consumers. Instead, the request amount that can be handled (response request limit amount) is predicted based on the past operation status of the power generation facilities owned by each consumer and the tendency of the load suppression status. A response possibility determination is performed based on the response request limit amount and a threshold (participation possibility determination value). Only consumers that can be determined to be able to respond are selected as DR participating consumers. Specifically, if the response request limit amount falls below the participation possibility determination value, the consumer is excluded from the participating consumers as a consumer that cannot be expected to respond to DR. This reduces the occurrence of consumers such as 3A that cannot satisfy the request amount at the time of an actual DR request, and makes it possible to avoid a situation where the DR request amount from the general electricity transmission and distribution utility cannot be satisfied. 5A and 5B, when the response availability information generating function 241A sets a participation availability determination value and determines whether the consumer 3A can participate, the process of setting a response request limit amount by the method described with reference to FIG. 5A and FIG. 5B is an example of a process of the prediction unit predicting the response capacity of the consumer. In addition, in step S15a, if the determination result is that the consumer 3A can participate, the management device 22 adjusts the request amount to the consumer 3A with the response request limit amount as an upper limit, and if the determination result is that the consumer 3A cannot participate, the management device 22 sets the request amount to 0 and determines the consumer 3A, etc., to which the request amount with the response request limit amount as an upper limit as a DR participating consumer in step S17 is an example of a process of the allocation unit allocating a request amount of power suppression to the consumer according to the response capacity predicted by the prediction unit.

[0024] <Third embodiment> Next, a method for selecting consumers who will participate in a DR request and setting a requested amount according to the third embodiment of the present disclosure will be described with reference to FIGS. (composition) FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of a selection system according to the third embodiment. The selection system 100b includes a general electricity transmission and distribution company system 1, a DR system 2b, and consumers 3A to 3N. The selection system 100b has a configuration combining the first and second embodiments, in which the DR system 2b includes both a response record DB 23 and a response feasibility information generation function 241A. The selection system 100b calculates the request amount using the methods of the first and second embodiments, and the smaller of the two is set as the request amount for the consumer. That is, the request amount is adjusted based on the response record information shown in the first embodiment, and then the request amount is adjusted based on the response feasibility information of the second embodiment. If the request amount obtained by the method of the second embodiment is smaller than the request amount obtained by the method of the first embodiment, the request amount obtained by the method of the second embodiment is adopted. Conversely, if the request amount obtained by the method of the first embodiment is smaller than the request amount obtained by the method of the second embodiment, the request amount obtained by the method of the first embodiment is adopted. By adopting the smaller value, it is possible to leave consumers with a large amount of spare capacity, and a DR plan can be carried out for all consumers 3A to 3N, so that if a shortage occurs, the shortfall can be made up by the spare capacity of each consumer 3A, etc.

[0025] (operation) Next, the operation of the selection system 100b of this embodiment will be described. 8 is a flowchart showing an example of a customer selection process according to the third embodiment. The same processes as those in the first and second embodiments are denoted by the same reference numerals and will be briefly described. First, the DR system 2 receives a DR request amount from the general electricity transmission and distribution utility (step S11). Next, the management device 22 refers to the contract information of each of the consumers 3A to 3N (step S12). Next, the management device 22 refers to the response performance information of each consumer (step S13). Next, the response feasibility information generation function 241A refers to the response performance information of each consumer (step S13a). Next, the management device 22 allocates the requested amount to each consumer 3A, etc. based on the contract information (step S14). Next, the management device 22 adjusts the requested amount to each consumer 3A, etc. based on the response performance information (step S15). Next, the management device 22 adjusts the requested amount to each consumer 3A, etc. based on the response performance information (step S15a). Next, the management device 22 compares the request amount adjusted in step S15 (the value obtained by multiplying the contract suppression value by the correlation of the response performance) with the request amount adjusted in step S15a (for example, the response request limit amount), and adopts the smaller value of the request amount (step S15b). Note that if it is determined in step S15a that the consumer 3A cannot respond, the request amount is not allocated to the consumer 3A regardless of the request amount adjusted in step S15. Next, the management device 22 compares the DR request amount received in step S1 with the total of the request amounts allocated to each consumer 3A, etc. (the request amount adopted in step S15b) (step S16). If the total of the adjusted request amounts allocated to each consumer 3A, etc. is less than the DR request amount (step S16; No), the process from step S14 is repeated for the next consumer 3B, etc. If the total of the adjusted requested amounts allocated to each consumer 3A, etc. is equal to or greater than the DR request amount (step S16; Yes), the management device 22 determines the DR participating consumer (step S17). The management device 22 selects the consumer 3A, etc. for which the request amount adjustment was performed in step S15 as the DR participating consumer. Next, the management device 22 notifies the DR participating consumer of the requested amount (step S18). The management device 22 notifies each of the DR participating consumers selected in step S17 of the adjusted requested amount calculated for the consumer 3A, etc. in the processing of step S15.

[0026] (effect) As described above, in the third embodiment, the smaller of the requested amounts adjusted by the methods of the first and second embodiments is adopted and allocated to each consumer. This achieves the same effects as the first and second embodiments, and in addition, it is possible to create a state in which a DR request can be met while leaving a large amount of spare capacity in the response capacity of each consumer in response to a DR request, and recovery can be performed even if the amount of power suppression becomes insufficient at the time of an actual DR request. In step S15, the management device 22 calculates the response performance amount / request amount for the consumer 3A using the past request amount included in the response performance information read out in step S13 and the corresponding response performance amount, and calculates the correlation of the response performance (performance ratio), which is an example of a process in which the prediction unit predicts the response capacity of the consumer. Also, in step S15a, the response availability information generation function 241A sets a participation availability determination value and sets a response request limit amount by the method described with reference to Figures 5A and 5B when determining whether or not to respond for the consumer 3A, which is an example of a process in which the prediction unit predicts the response capacity of the consumer. In addition, in step S15b, the management device 22 compares the requested amount adjusted in step S15 (the value obtained by multiplying the contract suppression value by the correlation of the response performance) with the requested amount adjusted in step S15a (for example, the response request limit amount), adopts the smaller requested amount, and in step S17, determines the consumer 3A, etc. to which the adopted requested amount has been assigned as a DR participating consumer.This process is an example of a process in which the allocation unit allocates to consumers a requested amount of power suppression according to the response capacity predicted by the prediction unit.

[0027] FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of the selection system according to each embodiment. The computer 900 includes a CPU 901 , a main memory device 902 , an auxiliary memory device 903 , an input / output interface 904 , and a communication interface 905 . The above-described management device 22 and DR system edge device 24A are implemented in a computer 900. The above-described functions are stored in the auxiliary storage device 903 in the form of a program. The CPU 901 reads the program from the auxiliary storage device 903, loads it into the main storage device 902, and executes the above-described processing in accordance with the program. The CPU 901 also allocates a storage area in the main storage device 902 in accordance with the program. The CPU 901 also allocates a storage area in the auxiliary storage device 903 for storing data being processed in accordance with the program.

[0028] Alternatively, a program for implementing all or part of the functions of the management device 22 and the DR system edge device 24A may be recorded on a computer-readable recording medium, and the program may be loaded into a computer system and executed to perform processing by each functional unit. The term "computer system" as used herein includes hardware such as an OS and peripheral devices. Furthermore, if a WWW system is used, the term "computer system" also includes the homepage provision environment (or display environment). Furthermore, the term "computer-readable recording medium" refers to portable media such as CDs, DVDs, and USBs, as well as storage devices such as hard disks built into the computer system. Furthermore, if the program is distributed to the computer 900 via a communication line, the computer 900 that receives the program may load the program into the main storage device 902 and execute the above-described processing. Furthermore, the program may be for implementing part of the above-described functions, or may be capable of implementing the above-described functions in combination with a program already stored in the computer system.

[0029] As described above, several embodiments according to the present disclosure have been described, but all of these embodiments are presented as examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. These embodiments can be implemented in various other forms, and various omissions, substitutions, and modifications can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention. These embodiments and their modifications are included in the scope of the invention and its equivalents as defined in the claims, as well as in the scope and spirit of the invention.

[0030] <Additional Notes> The request amount calculation system, the demand response system, and the request amount calculation method described in the embodiments can be understood, for example, as follows.

[0031] (1) A request amount calculation system according to a first aspect includes a prediction unit that predicts a consumer's ability to respond to a demand response request, and an allocation unit that allocates a requested amount of power reduction to the consumer in accordance with the ability to respond predicted by the prediction unit. By allocating the requested amount according to the capacity of each consumer, it is believed that each consumer can reliably achieve the requested amount even when an actual DR request is made. This reduces the occurrence of consumers who are unable to fulfill their requests when an actual DR request is made, and avoids a situation in which the DR request amount from the general electricity transmission and distribution utility cannot be met. The request amount calculation system may be implemented in a single device or may be distributed and implemented in multiple devices. For example, the prediction unit and the allocation unit may be implemented in different devices, or the prediction unit and / or the allocation unit may each be distributed and implemented in multiple devices.

[0032] (2) A request quantity calculation system according to a second aspect is the request quantity calculation system of (1), wherein the prediction unit calculates the ratio of the actual quantity to the request quantity in the demand response request of the consumer as the response capacity, and the allocation unit calculates the request quantity by multiplying the ratio by the amount of power suppression that the consumer must bear as specified in the contract. The amount of demand requested by a consumer is adjusted based on past performance in response to DR requests, which reduces the occurrence of consumers who are unable to fulfill their demand when an actual DR request is made.

[0033] (3) A request quantity calculation system according to a third aspect is the request quantity calculation system of (2), wherein the prediction unit calculates the ratio based on the ratio of the actual quantity to the requested quantity in the latest demand response request, or the average value, maximum value, or minimum value of the ratio of the actual quantity to the requested quantity in a predetermined number of past demand response requests, or the average value, maximum value, or minimum value of the ratio of the actual quantity to the requested quantity in the demand response requests made within a predetermined period. This makes it possible to evaluate the customer's response performance.

[0034] (4) A request quantity calculation system according to a fourth aspect is the request quantity calculation system of (1), wherein the prediction unit calculates responsive achievement probability information indicating the achievement probability according to the request quantity based on the actual capacity of the equipment owned by the consumer to respond to the demand response request, and calculates the maximum request quantity for which the achievement probability satisfies the threshold value based on the responsive achievement probability information and a predetermined threshold value for the achievement probability as the responsive capacity, and the allocation unit calculates the responsive capacity as the request quantity if the responsive capacity is equal to or greater than a participation possibility determination value, which is a predetermined threshold value for the request quantity. The system predicts the amount of requests that can be handled based on the past operating status of each consumer's power generation facilities and trends in load suppression, and determines whether or not to respond based on the response request limit and the participation judgment value, and selects only consumers that can be judged to be able to respond as DR participating consumers.This makes it possible to reduce the occurrence of consumers who cannot fulfill requests when DR is actually requested.

[0035] (5) A request quantity calculation system according to a fifth aspect is the request quantity calculation system of (4), wherein the allocation unit sets the request quantity to 0 if the available capacity is less than the participation possibility determination value. If the response request limit falls below the participation judgment value, the customer is excluded from participating customers as a customer who cannot be expected to respond to DR. This makes it possible to prevent the occurrence of customers who cannot meet the requested amount when an actual DR request is made.

[0036] (6) A sixth aspect of the request quantity calculation system is a request quantity calculation system according to (4) to (5), wherein the prediction unit calculates the available capacity by subtracting the actual output from the maximum output of the power generation equipment based on the operational performance of the power generation equipment owned by the consumer. This makes it possible to calculate the actual capacity of the customer's facilities to respond to demand response requests.

[0037] (7) A sixth aspect of the request quantity calculation system is the request quantity calculation system of (1), wherein the prediction unit calculates the ratio of the actual quantity to the requested quantity in the demand response request of the consumer as the available capacity, the allocation unit calculates a first request quantity by multiplying the ratio by the amount of power suppression that the consumer must bear as specified in the contract, the prediction unit calculates responsive achievement probability information indicating the achievement probability according to the requested quantity based on the actual capacity of the equipment owned by the consumer to respond to the demand response request, and calculates the largest request quantity for which the achievement probability satisfies the threshold based on the responsive achievement probability information and a predetermined threshold for the achievement probability as the available capacity, and if the available capacity is equal to or greater than a participation possibility determination value, which is a predetermined threshold for the request quantity, the allocation unit calculates the available capacity as a second request quantity, and sets the smaller of the first request quantity and the second request quantity as the request quantity. This reduces the occurrence of customers who are unable to fulfill the DR request when it is actually made, and also leaves a large margin of capacity for each customer to respond to the DR request.

[0038] (8) A request quantity calculation system according to an eighth aspect is a request quantity calculation system according to any one of (1) to (7), wherein the allocation unit allocates the request quantity to each candidate consumer participating in the demand response request until the power suppression quantity requested in the demand response request is satisfied. This allows the requested amount to be allocated to each consumer so that the DR request amount from the general electricity transmission and distribution company can be met.

[0039] (9) A demand response system according to a ninth aspect includes a request quantity calculation system according to any one of (1) to (8), a management device that notifies the edge device of the consumer of the request quantity, and an edge device that controls the equipment of the consumer to perform power reduction indicated by the request quantity.

[0040] (10) A request amount calculation method according to a tenth aspect includes a step of predicting a consumer's ability to respond to a demand response request, and a step of allocating a request amount for power suppression to the consumer in accordance with the ability to respond predicted in the prediction step. [Explanation of symbols]

[0041] 100, 100a, 100b... Selection system 1. General electricity transmission and distribution company system 2, 2a, 2b Demand response system 21 Contract Information DB 22...Management device 23. Response performance DB 24A~24N DR system edge equipment 241A...Response availability information generation function 3A~3N...Customer 3A1...Load 3A2 Power generation equipment 3A3...Load 3A4 Power generation equipment 3A5...Energy storage equipment 3A6... Power receiving point 3A7...Measuring instrument 3A8...Measuring instrument 3A9...Measuring instrument 3A10···Controller 3A11···Controller 3A12 Controller 900···Computer 901 CPU 902...Main memory 903...Auxiliary storage device 904 Input / Output Interface 905···Communication Interface

Claims

1. A prediction unit that predicts a customer's response capability in response to a demand response request; an allocation unit that allocates, to the consumer, a requested amount of power suppression according to the available capacity predicted by the prediction unit; A request amount calculation system comprising:

2. the prediction unit calculates a ratio of an actual amount to a requested amount in the demand response request of the consumer as the response capacity; The allocation unit calculates the requested amount by multiplying the power suppression amount to be borne by the consumer, which is determined by a contract, by the ratio. The request amount calculation system according to claim 1 .

3. the prediction unit calculates the ratio based on a ratio of the actual amount to the requested amount in the latest demand response request, or an average value, a maximum value, or a minimum value of a ratio of the actual amount to the requested amount in a predetermined number of past demand response requests, or an average value, a maximum value, or a minimum value of a ratio of the actual amount to the requested amount in the demand response requests generated during a predetermined period; The request amount calculation system according to claim 2 .

4. the prediction unit calculates responsive achievement probability information indicating an achievement probability corresponding to the request amount based on a track record of a capacity of the equipment of the consumer that can respond to the demand response request, and calculates, as the response capacity, a maximum request amount at which the achievement probability satisfies a predetermined threshold value for the achievement probability based on the responsive achievement probability information and the threshold value for the achievement probability; the allocation unit calculates the available capacity as the request amount if the available capacity is equal to or greater than a participation possibility determination value that is a predetermined threshold for the request amount; The request amount calculation system according to claim 1 .

5. If the available capacity is less than the participation determination value, the allocation unit sets the request amount to 0. The request amount calculation system according to claim 4.

6. The prediction unit calculates the available capacity by subtracting an actual output from a maximum output of the power generation facility based on an operation record of the power generation facility of the consumer. The request amount calculation system according to claim 4 or 5.

7. the prediction unit calculates a ratio of an actual amount to a requested amount in the demand response request of the consumer as the response capacity; The allocator calculates a first requested amount by multiplying a power suppression amount to be borne by the consumer, the amount being determined by a contract, by the ratio; the prediction unit calculates responsive achievement probability information indicating an achievement probability corresponding to the request amount based on a track record of a capacity of the equipment of the consumer that can respond to the demand response request, and calculates, as the response capacity, a maximum request amount at which the achievement probability satisfies a predetermined threshold value for the achievement probability based on the responsive achievement probability information and the threshold value for the achievement probability; When the available capacity is equal to or greater than a participation possibility determination value that is a predetermined threshold for the amount of request, the allocation unit calculates the available capacity as a second request amount, and sets the smaller of the first request amount and the second request amount as the amount of request. The request amount calculation system according to claim 1 .

8. the allocation unit allocates the requested amount to each candidate consumer participating in the demand response request until the requested amount of power suppression is satisfied.

8. The request amount calculation system according to claim 1, 2, 4, or 7.

9. A request amount calculation system according to any one of claims 1 to 7, A management device that notifies the edge device of the consumer of the requested amount; an edge device that controls the customer's facility so as to perform power reduction indicated by the requested amount; A demand response system comprising:

10. predicting a customer's ability to respond to a demand response request; allocating to the consumer a requested amount of power suppression according to the available capacity predicted in the predicting step; A request amount calculation method having the above structure.

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