Charge / discharge control method and charge / discharge control device

Abstract

To induce a participation of an automobile greatly expected to participate in charge / discharge control.SOLUTION: An EV group control part 30 performs at least one of first control and second control to future discharge power required for a battery calculated based on future power demand prediction of a building in a period prior to a period in which a prediction value of power supplied to the building from the battery in the future runs short. The first control increases a command value of charge power for an electric motor car whose expectation value of supply power of the battery is relatively low than an initial value in a period prior to a period in which the prediction value of the supply power runs short. The second control decreases the command value of charge power for an electric motor car whose expectation value of supply power of the battery is relatively high than the initial value in the period prior to the period in which the prediction value of the supply power runs short.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a charge-discharge control method and a charge-discharge control device.

Background Art

[0002] In Patent Document 1, an automobile invitation device has been proposed that invites an electric vehicle to a charging station that performs charge-discharge processing on the electric vehicle in a parking facility. In this proposal, incentive information that can be obtained by responding to an invitation is notified to an electric vehicle with a high request for inviting the electric vehicle to the charging station, which is determined according to the power supply-demand balance in the charge-discharge processing for the electric vehicle.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0003]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0004] In the automobile invitation device of Patent Document 1, electric vehicles can park at the charging station in the order of arrival. In this automobile invitation device, even if an electric vehicle that has received incentive information with a large incentive heads for the charging station in response to the invitation, there is a possibility that the charging station is occupied by other electric vehicles that arrived earlier.

[0005] The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances, and an object of the present invention is to attract the participation of automobiles with a high expectation of participating in charge-discharge control.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0006] In order to solve the above problems, in a charge / discharge control method according to one aspect of the present invention, the charge / discharge of the battery of an automobile by the charge / discharge equipment of a facility is controlled. In this charge / discharge control method, the future power supply and demand of the facility are predicted, and the power that will be supplied to the facility from the battery in the future due to the future discharge of the battery by all the charge / discharge equipment existing in the facility is predicted. When there is a period during which the power to be supplied to the facility from the battery is insufficient with respect to the future discharge power required for the battery calculated based on the future power supply and demand of the facility, at least one of the first control and the second control is performed. The first control is control for an automobile determined to have a relatively low expected value of the period during which the power to be supplied to the facility from the battery is insufficient. The expected value is the amount of power predicted to be discharged from the battery and supplied to the facility during the period when the power to be supplied to the facility from the battery is insufficient. In the first control, the command value of the charging power of the battery for instructing the charge / discharge equipment for a period earlier in time series than the period during which the power to be supplied to the facility from the battery is insufficient is increased compared to the initial command value. The initial command value is the command value corresponding to the charge / discharge power of the battery by the charge / discharge equipment predicted for a period earlier in time series than the period during which the power to be supplied to the facility from the battery is insufficient for the automobile determined to have a relatively low expected value. The second control is control for an automobile determined to have a relatively high expected value of the period during which the power to be supplied to the facility from the battery is insufficient. In the second control, the command value of the charging power of the battery for instructing the charge / discharge equipment for a period earlier in time series than the period during which the power to be supplied to the facility from the battery is insufficient is decreased compared to the initial command value of the automobile determined to have a relatively high expected value.

Advantages of the Invention

[0007] According to the present invention, it is possible to attract the participation of automobiles with a high expectation of participating in charge / discharge control.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0008]

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DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0009] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention and modifications thereof will be described with reference to the drawings. In the description of the drawings, the same parts are denoted by the same reference numerals and the description thereof is omitted.

[0010] Referring to FIG. 1, an overall configuration example of a power management device to which a charge and discharge control method according to an embodiment of the present invention is applied will be described. The power management device manages the overall power supply and demand of a facility (not shown). The power management device is, for example, a device that manages billing related to the power of a facility. The management target of the power management device is not limited to a facility and may be a single demand location. The power management device may be configured by virtually connecting a plurality of devices that each manage a plurality of demand locations. The facility can be, for example, a building, a factory, a region, or a house. In the embodiment shown below, an example of a building power management device that manages the power supply and demand of a building (not shown) having a parking facility will be described. As shown in FIG. 1, the building power management device 1 includes a general control unit 10, a facility control unit 20 as a first prediction unit, and an EV group control unit 30 as a second prediction unit. The EV group control unit 30 can function as a charge control unit that performs at least one of the first control and the second control described later.

[0011] The general control unit 10 manages so that the overall power supply and demand of the building is appropriately performed with respect to a power system (not shown). The general control unit 10 determines the charge and discharge power to be allocated to the battery of an electric vehicle (EV) (not shown) connected to the charge and discharge facility (not shown) of the parking facility based on the power demand of power consumption elements excluding the electric vehicles (EVs) (not shown) parked in the parking facility of the building managed by the facility control unit 20. The general control unit 10 notifies the determined charge and discharge power to the EV group control unit 30 that manages the charge and discharge of the battery of the electric vehicle. An electric vehicle is an example of an automobile having a battery, and the battery of the electric vehicle may be read as the battery mounted on the automobile.

[0012] The overall control unit 10 may be connected to the aggregator control unit 2. The aggregator control unit 2 is installed in an aggregator (not shown). The aggregator is a specific wholesale supplier also called a virtual power plant (VPP). The aggregator adjusts the balance between the supply of power by the power company through the power grid and the demand for power in the facilities of the consumers between the power company and the consumers. When the aggregator control unit 2 is connected to the overall control unit 10, a command is input to the overall control unit 10 from the aggregator control unit 2. The commands from the aggregator control unit 2 include, for example, an increase DR (DR = demand response) command to increase the power consumption amount and a decrease DR command to decrease the power demand amount. The overall control unit 10 adjusts the power demand of the power consumption elements of the building and the charge and discharge of the batteries of the electric vehicles in the parking facility in response to the content of the commands from the aggregator control unit 2, and adjusts the balance of the power supply and demand of the entire building. The connection between the overall control unit 10 and the aggregator control unit 2 may be a wired connection, a wireless connection, or, for example, a connection via the Internet.

[0013] The overall control unit 10 has, for example, a general-purpose microcontroller. The microcontroller of the overall control unit 10 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit), not shown, having an input / output unit and an arithmetic unit, and a memory. The memory includes a ROM (Read Only Memory) and a RAM (Random Access Memory). The microcontroller can virtually construct a plurality of information processing circuits, for example, by the CPU executing a program stored in the memory. As shown in FIG. 2, the plurality of information processing circuits of the overall control unit 10 can constitute an adjustment unit 101. The overall control unit 10 receives an electric power demand plan formulated by the facility control unit 20 by predicting the electric power demand by the electric power consumption elements of the building, and a supply power plan formulated by the EV group control unit 30 by predicting the supply power by the batteries of the electric vehicles connected to the charging / discharging facilities of the parking facility. The adjustment unit 101 compares the planned electric power demand and the supply power. When the plans for the electric power demand and the supply power are respectively formulated for each time zone, the adjustment unit 101 compares the planned electric power demand and the supply power for the same time zone. When comparing the planned supply power and the electric power demand, the adjustment unit 101 multiplies the planned electric power demand by a safety factor. The safety factor is a factor for considering the error with respect to the actual electric power demand included in the planned electric power demand. The safety factor can be set to a value greater than 1, for example, by particularly considering the error when the planned electric power demand is lower than the actual electric power demand. For example, when the planned supply power exceeds the power value obtained by multiplying the planned electric power demand by the safety factor, the adjustment unit 101 can determine that the adjustment risk of the overall power supply and demand of the building is "none". For example, when the planned supply power is equal to or less than the power value obtained by multiplying the planned electric power demand by the safety factor, the adjustment unit 101 can determine that the adjustment risk is "present". The adjustment unit 101 outputs the determination result of the adjustment risk to the EV group control unit 30.

[0014] The facility control unit 20 in FIG. 1 predicts the power demand by the power consumption elements of the building excluding the electric vehicles parked in the parking facility, and formulates a plan for the power demand. The power demand predicted by the facility control unit 20 corresponds to the future power supply and demand of the building as the facility. The power consumption elements of the building include, for example, devices and facilities whose power demand or power consumption can be controlled by an external command, and devices and facilities whose power demand or power consumption cannot be controlled. The former devices and facilities include, for example, air conditioning facilities, lighting facilities, and stationary batteries in the building, and the latter devices and facilities include, for example, dryers. The control units 3 and 4 are connected to the facility control unit 20. The control unit 3 is provided in the devices and facilities whose power demand or power consumption can be controlled among the power consumption elements of the building. The control unit 4 is provided in the charging and discharging facility (not shown) of the electric vehicle (EV) installed in the parking facility of the building. The charging and discharging facility charges and discharges the battery (not shown) of the electric vehicle connected to the charging and discharging facility. In FIG. 1, one control unit 3 and one control unit 4 are shown. The facility control unit 20 can be connected to the number of control units 3 corresponding to the devices and facilities whose power demand or power consumption can be controlled, and the number of control units 4 corresponding to the charging and discharging facilities installed in the parking facility. The facility control unit 20 can obtain the identification information of the electric vehicle connected to the charging and discharging facility from the control unit 4 of the charging and discharging facility.

[0015] The facility control unit 20 notifies the control unit 3 of the stationary battery of a charge or discharge command including the charge and discharge amount, and notifies the control units 3 of devices and facilities whose power demand or power consumption excluding the battery is controllable of the consumable power. The facility control unit 20 notifies the control unit 4 of the charging and discharging equipment of a discharge command including the discharge amount of the battery of the electric vehicle connected to the charging and discharging equipment. The facility control unit 20 predicts, as the power demand by the power consumption elements of the building excluding the electric vehicles parked in the parking facility, the power obtained by subtracting from the power consumed by the power consumption elements of the building the discharge power supplied by the battery to the power grid due to reverse power flow. The power consumed by the power consumption elements of the building includes the charging power consumed by the battery being charged. The prediction period for which the facility control unit 20 predicts the power demand can be, for example, from the present until one week later. The prediction period is the period for which the adjustment unit 101 of the overall control unit 10 determines whether there is a period during which the power to be supplied to the building as the facility from the battery will be insufficient. The prediction period corresponds to the first period. The facility control unit 20 can predict, for example, for each prediction period and for each hour during the prediction period, the power demand for each electric vehicle. The connection between the facility control unit 20 and the control units 3 and 4 may be a wired connection, a wireless connection, or, for example, a connection via the Internet. The facility control unit 20 has, for example, a general-purpose microcontroller.

[0016] The microcontroller of the facility control unit 20 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) and a memory, not shown, which have an input / output unit and an arithmetic unit. The microcontroller of the facility control unit 20 can virtually construct a plurality of information processing circuits, similar to the microcontroller of the overall control unit 10, by having the CPU execute a program stored in the memory. The plurality of information processing circuits of the facility control unit 20 can realize a function of outputting the prediction result of the power demand by the power consumption elements of the building to the overall control unit 10. The facility control unit 20 may output, for example, the prediction target date, the prediction target time, the power demand amount and the power supply amount in the facility as a power demand plan formulated from the prediction result of the power demand by the power consumption elements of the building. The prediction target date is a date during the prediction period. The prediction target time is the time for which the facility control unit 20 predicts the power demand amount and the power supply amount in the facility, and is set to a time at one-hour intervals.

[0017] The EV group control unit 30 controls the charging and discharging of the batteries of electric vehicles connected to the charging and discharging facility. The EV group control unit 30 controls the charging and discharging of the batteries of electric vehicles based on the remaining charge capacity of the batteries, the desired lower limit capacity, and the desired upper limit capacity of the batteries. The desired lower limit capacity is the lower limit value of the charge capacity acceptable to the user at the start of battery charging. The desired upper limit capacity is the upper limit value of the charge capacity acceptable to the user at the end of battery charging. The EV group control unit 30 can acquire the desired lower limit capacity and the desired upper limit capacity of the battery input from the user interface 5, which will be described later, as part of the preference information regarding the electric vehicle, store them for each electric vehicle, and set them. In principle, the EV group control unit 30 controls the charging of the battery so that the battery is charged between the desired upper limit capacity and the desired lower limit capacity. The EV group control unit 30 predicts the supply power supplied by the battery of the electric vehicle connected to the charging and discharging facility to the power grid by discharging and formulates a plan for the supply power of the battery. The prediction period for which the EV group control unit 30 predicts the supply power can be, for example, up to one week from now. The prediction period of the EV group control unit 30 can be made to coincide with the prediction period of the facility control unit 20. When the adjustment unit 101 of the overall control unit 10 determines that the planned supply power is insufficient and there is a risk of adjusting the power supply and demand of the entire building, the EV group control unit 30 reviews the prediction of the supply power of the battery and adjusts the plan for the supply power. A control unit 4, a user interface 5, and a data management device 6 are connected to the EV group control unit 30. The EV group control unit 30 can acquire the identification information of the electric vehicle connected to the charging and discharging facility from the control unit 4 of the charging and discharging facility.

[0018] The user interface 5 is a device used by the user of the electric vehicle as an interface. The user interface 5 may be, for example, a mobile terminal that the user of the electric vehicle routinely possesses and uses, or may be provided inside the electric vehicle. The user can input preference information regarding the electric vehicle into the user interface 5. The preference information includes information regarding the state of charge (SOC) of the battery and information regarding the operation of the electric vehicle. The information regarding the state of charge of the battery includes, for example, the identification information of the electric vehicle, the desired lower limit capacity and the desired upper limit capacity of the battery. The information regarding the operation of the electric vehicle includes, for example, the identification information of the electric vehicle, the information of the usage date of the electric vehicle, and the information of the expected usage content of the electric vehicle on the usage date. The information of the usage date may be, for example, the information of the day of the week or the date when commuting using the electric vehicle. The information of the usage content may be, for example, the information of the expected driving distance of the electric vehicle on a specific day of the week or date. The user can input into the user interface 5 the change request information of the desired lower limit capacity and the desired upper limit capacity input into the user interface 5 as preference information regarding the state of charge of the battery. The change request includes, for example, the identification information of the electric vehicle, the request date to which the change is applied, the start time and the end time of the period to which the change on the request date is applied, and the desired lower limit capacity and the desired upper limit capacity of the battery after the change. The EV group control unit 30 can acquire the preference information and the change request information input by the user into the user interface 5.

[0019] The data management device 6 is a device that manages the operation information of the electric vehicle. The data management device 6 can acquire vehicle information from the electric vehicle, for example, each time a predetermined event occurs in the electric vehicle. The vehicle information includes, for example, the identification information of the electric vehicle, the time, the current charge capacity of the battery, and the information of the location of the electric vehicle. The location of the electric vehicle can be specified, for example, by the position information obtained by a GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) sensor (not shown) mounted on the electric vehicle. When the data management device 6 collects information from the electric vehicle using, for example, the connected function, the vehicle information may be acquired from the electric vehicle to the data management device 6 using this collection act.

[0020] Figure 1 shows one user interface 5 and one data management device 6 each. The EV group control unit 30 can connect a number of user interfaces 5 corresponding to the electric vehicles using the building's parking facility. For example, when multiple data management devices 6 share and manage the operation information of all the electric vehicles using the building's parking facility, the EV group control unit 30 may connect multiple data management devices 6. The EV group control unit 30 notifies the control unit 4 of a charging command including the charge amount of the battery of the electric vehicle connected to the charging and discharging facility. The connection between the EV group control unit 30 and the control unit 4, the user interface 5, and the data management device 6 may be a wired connection, a wireless connection, or, for example, a connection via the Internet.

[0021] The EV group control unit 30 has, for example, a general-purpose microcontroller. The microcontroller of the EV group control unit 30 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) and a memory, not shown, which have an input / output unit and an arithmetic unit. The microcontroller of the EV group control unit 30 can virtually construct a plurality of information processing circuits, similar to the microcontrollers of the overall control unit 10 or the facility control unit 20, by, for example, the CPU executing a program stored in the memory. As shown in Figure 2, the plurality of information processing circuits of the EV group control unit 30 can constitute a state prediction unit 301, an action prediction unit 302, a plan creation unit 303, a plan adjustment unit 304, and an arithmetic unit 305.

[0022] The EV group control unit 30 has a data storage 310 connected to the microcontroller in addition to a microcontroller (not shown). The data storage 310 may be, for example, an SSD (Solid State Drive) or an HDD (Hard Disk Drive). In the data storage 310, first to third databases 311 to 313 are constructed. In the first database 311, vehicle information of electric vehicles using the parking facilities of the building, which the EV group control unit 30 has acquired from the data management device 6, is stored for each electric vehicle. Each time the data management device 6 newly acquires vehicle information from an electric vehicle, the EV group control unit 30 may acquire the newly acquired vehicle information from the data management device 6 and add it to the vehicle information stored in the first database 311. In the second database 312, user preference information regarding electric vehicles, which the EV group control unit 30 has acquired from the user interface 5, is stored for each electric vehicle. In the third database 313, change request information for the desired lower limit capacity and the desired upper limit capacity of the battery, which the EV group control unit 30 has acquired from the user interface 5, is stored for each electric vehicle.

[0023] Based on the vehicle information for each electric vehicle stored in the first database 311, the state prediction unit 301 predicts, for each electric vehicle, the remaining charge capacity of the battery when the electric vehicle is expected to park at the parking facility during the prediction period in which the facility control unit 20 predicts the power demand. The state prediction unit 301 outputs the prediction result to the behavior prediction unit 302. The state prediction unit 301 may output, for example, the identification information of the electric vehicle, the prediction target date, the expected arrival time and the expected departure time of the electric vehicle at the parking facility, and the expected capacity at arrival as the prediction result. The prediction target date is a date during the prediction period and is a date on which the electric vehicle is predicted to park at the parking facility. The expected arrival time and the expected departure time can be predicted by the state prediction unit 301 based on, for example, the vehicle information. The expected capacity at arrival is the remaining charge capacity of the battery predicted by the state prediction unit 301 at the predicted parking time of the electric vehicle.

[0024] Based on the prediction result of the state prediction unit 301, the behavior prediction unit 302 predicts, for each electric vehicle, the probability that the electric vehicle in the parking facility is connected to the charging and discharging facility for the prediction period. The start and end of battery charging can be recognized based on vehicle information, for example. In a plurality of vehicle information where the time is continuous in time series, when the location of the electric vehicle is the parking facility of the building and the current charging capacity of the battery changes from decreasing to increasing, it can be considered that the battery charging has started. In a plurality of vehicle information where the time is continuous in time series, when the location of the electric vehicle is the parking facility of the building and the increase in the current charging capacity of the battery ends, or changes from increasing to decreasing, it can be considered that the battery charging has ended. The start and end of battery charging can be considered as the start and end of the connection of the electric vehicle to the charging and discharging facility. The prediction of the connection probability of the electric vehicle to the charging and discharging facility when the remaining charging capacity of the battery is a specific charging capacity can be performed, for example, as follows. The connection probability can be predicted based on, for example, the ratio of the total number of vehicle information where the expected capacity at arrival is a specific charging capacity to the number of vehicle information that can be considered as the one when the battery charging starts among them. The relationship between the remaining charging capacity of the battery and the connection probability of the electric vehicle to the charging and discharging facility can be obtained based on the vehicle information in the first database 311, for example. The behavior prediction unit 302 predicts the connection probability of the electric vehicle to the charging and discharging facility based on the relationship of the characteristic line L shown in the graph of FIG. 3 for the arrival expected capacity corresponding in the prediction result of the state prediction unit 301. FIG. 3 is a graph showing an example of the correlation between the connection probability of the electric vehicle to the charging and discharging facility and the remaining charging capacity of the battery. In FIG. 3, the remaining charging capacity of the battery is represented by the state of charge (SOC). The vertical axis of the graph indicates the connection probability of the electric vehicle to the charging and discharging facility, and the horizontal axis indicates the state of charge. The behavior prediction unit 302 may predict the connection probability of the electric vehicle to the charging and discharging facility using, for example, data associating the connection probability and the state of charge of the battery shown by the characteristic line L in FIG. 3. The data associating the state of charge and the connection probability may be, for example, a table, a map, etc. that defines the relationship between the two. The relationship of the characteristic line L in FIG. 3 may be obtained individually for each electric vehicle, for example, or may be obtained as a relationship common to all electric vehicles from the representative value of the relationship obtained from the vehicle information of all electric vehicles.The representative value may be, for example, an average value. The behavior prediction unit 302 outputs the prediction result of the probability that the electric vehicle is connected to the charging and discharging facility to the plan creation unit 303. The behavior prediction unit 302 may output, for example, the identification information of the electric vehicle, the prediction target date, the start time and the end time, the connection probability of the electric vehicle to the charging and discharging facility, the charging demand, and the dischargeable amount as the prediction result. The prediction target date is a date during the prediction period and is the date for predicting the connection probability of the electric vehicle to the charging and discharging facility. The start time and the end time are the expected times for the start and end of the connection of the electric vehicle to the charging and discharging facility. The start time and the end time may be the same as the arrival expected time and the departure expected time in the prediction result of the state prediction unit 301. The charging demand is the amount of charge of the electric power required by the battery when the electric vehicle is connected to the charging and discharging facility. The behavior prediction unit 302 can predict the charging demand, for example, based on the predicted capacity at arrival of the battery, the desired lower limit capacity, and the desired upper limit capacity. The predicted capacity at arrival indicates the remaining charge capacity of the battery when the electric vehicle arrives at the parking facility. The dischargeable amount can be, for example, the amount of electric power obtained by subtracting the desired lower limit capacity from the predicted capacity at arrival. The behavior prediction unit 302 can obtain the charging demand and the dischargeable amount of the battery based on the preference information in the second database 312 related to the electric vehicle of that battery.

[0025] Based on the prediction results of the behavior prediction unit 302, the plan creation unit 303 predicts the charge and discharge amount of the battery of the electric vehicle connected to the charging and discharging facility during the prediction period. The charging and discharging facility can switch between charging and discharging the battery of the electric vehicle and perform both while the electric vehicle connected to the charging and discharging facility is parked at the parking facility. For example, if there is a margin in the time when the electric vehicle is parked at the parking facility, the charging and discharging facility can once discharge the battery and then charge the battery during the remaining time of parking. The plan creation unit 303 can predict, for example, the charge and discharge amount during the prediction period in one-hour increments. The plan creation unit 303 outputs the prediction results of the charge and discharge amount per hour to the overall control unit 10. The plan creation unit 303 may output, for example, the prediction target date, the prediction target time, the total charge requirement amount, and the total dischargeable amount as the prediction results per hour. The prediction target date is the date during the prediction period. The prediction target time is the time for which the plan creation unit 303 predicts the total charge requirement amount and the total dischargeable amount, and can be set, for example, at times with an interval of one hour. The total charge requirement amount and the total dischargeable amount are the total of the charging demand and the total of the dischargeable amount regarding the battery of the electric vehicle predicted by the state prediction unit 301 when connected to the charging and discharging facility for one hour from the prediction target time. The total dischargeable amount indicates the electric power that will be supplied from the battery to the building as the facility in the future by the future discharge of the battery by all the charging and discharging facilities existing in the building as the facility. The charging demand and the dischargeable amount of the battery are predicted by the behavior prediction unit 302. The plan creation unit 303 outputs the predicted total dischargeable amount to the overall control unit 10 as the supply power plan formulated for the battery of the electric vehicle connected to the charging and discharging facility.

[0026] The planning adjustment unit 304 obtains the determination result of the adjustment risk by the adjustment unit 101 of the overall control unit 10. The determination result of the adjustment unit 101 is the result of determining the presence or absence of the adjustment risk of the power supply and demand of the entire building by comparing the planned power supply output by the plan creation unit 303 with the planned power demand formulated by the facility control unit 20. When the adjustment unit 101 of the overall control unit 10 determines that there is an adjustment risk for the power supply of the battery at the time of prediction target, the planning adjustment unit 304 rechecks the prediction of the power supply by the battery during the prediction period and adjusts the power supply plan. When adjusting the power supply plan of the battery, the planning adjustment unit 304 outputs the adjustment content of the power supply plan to the state prediction unit 301. The planning adjustment unit 304 may output, for example, the identification information of the electric vehicle, the pre-intervention date, and the intervention capacity as the adjustment content. The pre-intervention date is the date when the EV group control unit 30 intervenes in the charging control of the battery in order to adjust the power supply plan of the battery. The pre-intervention date is a date during the prediction period and is set to a date before the prediction target date to which the prediction target time when the adjustment unit 101 determines that there is an adjustment risk belongs. The pre-intervention date corresponds to a period earlier in time series than the period when the power to be supplied to the building as a facility from the battery is insufficient. For example, the pre-intervention date may be the day before the prediction target date. The intervention capacity indicates the change amount of the margin capacity set by the planning adjustment unit 304. The margin can be set within the allowable range of the remaining charge capacity of the battery from the desired lower limit capacity to the desired upper limit capacity. The margin can be set, for example, at the end of the range from the desired lower limit capacity to the desired upper limit capacity, which is a predetermined charge state for an electric vehicle as an automobile. The EV group control unit 30 can intervene in the charging control of the battery by the planning adjustment unit 304 changing the margin capacity. The margin can be set on each of the desired lower limit capacity side and the desired upper limit capacity side within the allowable range of the remaining charge capacity of the battery. When the margin is set, the EV group control unit 30 starts charging when the remaining charge capacity of the battery is equal to or higher than the desired lower limit capacity plus the margin, and ends charging when the remaining charge capacity of the battery is equal to or lower than the desired upper limit capacity minus the margin. The planning adjustment unit 304 can change the margin capacity on at least one of the desired lower limit capacity side and the desired upper limit capacity side.For example, when the planning adjustment unit 304 changes the margin capacity on the desired upper limit capacity side, the EV group control unit 30 can intervene in the battery charging control.

[0027] FIG. 4 is a graph showing an example of the state of charge of the battery at the end of charging by the charging and discharging facility and on the next day when the EV group control unit 30 does not intervene in the charging control. FIG. 4 shows an example in which four electric vehicles are connected to the charging and discharging facility of the parking facility on the day before the target prediction day. When the EV group control unit 30 does not intervene in the charging control, the batteries of the four electric vehicles are charged to the states of charge SOC1 to SOC4 corresponding to the post-charging target capacities that are lower by the margin from their respective desired upper limit capacities on the day before the target prediction day. When there is no significant difference in these states of charge SOC1 to SOC4, even if each electric vehicle is operated after charging, there will be no significant difference in the states of charge SOC11 to SOC14 of the batteries on the target prediction day of the next day. When each electric vehicle parks at the parking facility on the target prediction day, the probability that each electric vehicle is connected to the charging and discharging facility does not change significantly, and it is unlikely that there will be a superiority or inferiority among the electric vehicles connected to the charging and discharging facility depending on the remaining charge capacity of the battery. When the EV group control unit 30 does not intervene in the battery charging control, it is considered that on the target prediction day, a plurality of electric vehicles with similar connection probabilities to the charging and discharging facility tend to be connected to the charging and discharging facility in the order of arrival at the parking facility. An electric vehicle that arrives late at the parking facility cannot participate in the power supply by discharging the battery, even if it can contribute highly to the power supply by discharging the battery when there is no available space in the charging and discharging facility at the time of arrival. In the operation where electric vehicles are connected to the charging and discharging facility in the order of arrival at the parking facility, it is difficult to induce a specific electric vehicle to be preferentially connected to the charging and discharging facility on the target prediction day when it is desired to include the specific electric vehicle in the power supply of the battery on the target prediction day.

[0028] When the EV group control unit 30 intervenes in the charging control, the plan adjustment unit 304 can set, for example, a negative value as the intervention capacity. When a negative value is set as the intervention capacity, the margin capacity decreases by the amount of the intervention capacity. For example, when reducing the margin on the desired upper limit capacity side of the battery, the post-charge target capacity indicating the amount of charge to end charging in the battery charging control becomes higher by the absolute value of the intervention capacity, and the EV group control unit 30 intervenes in the charging control. After the intervention of the charging control by the EV group control unit 30, the battery is charged to a remaining charge capacity higher than that before the intervention of the charging control. When the EV group control unit 30 intervenes in the charging control, even if the remaining charge capacity of the battery decreases during the operation of the electric vehicle after charging, the state of charge of the battery after operation becomes higher than when the EV group control unit 30 does not intervene in the charging control. When the state of charge of the battery remains high even after the operation of the electric vehicle, the necessity to charge the battery decreases, and the arrival of the next opportunity to connect the electric vehicle parked at the parking facility to the charging and discharging equipment for battery charging is delayed.

[0029] FIG. 5 is a graph showing an example of the state of charge of the battery at the end of charging by the charging and discharging equipment and on the next day when the EV group control unit 30 intervenes in the charging control. When the EV group control unit 30 intervenes in the charging control, the plan adjustment unit 304 sets the day before the target prediction day as the pre-intervention day and reduces the margin capacity of the battery by setting the intervention capacity. The plan adjustment unit 304 reduces the margin capacity of the battery, for example, for electric vehicles that are not desired to participate in the power supply on the target prediction day by discharging the battery. An electric vehicle that is not desired to participate in the power supply on the target prediction day is an electric vehicle with a relatively low expected value of the battery power supply on the target prediction day. An electric vehicle with a relatively high expected value of the battery power supply on the target prediction day is, relatively speaking, an electric vehicle that is desired to participate in the power supply on the target prediction day. The expected value of the battery power supply is the amount of power predicted to be supplied to the building as the facility by discharging the battery during the period when the power supply from the battery to the building is insufficient.

[0030] The planning adjustment unit 304, for example, reduces the margin on the upper limit capacity side of the battery on the day before the target day for prediction for electric vehicles that are not desired to participate in the power supply on the target day by discharging the battery. When the margin on the upper limit capacity side of the battery is reduced, the post-charge target capacity of the battery is increased by the amount of the reduced margin. On the day before the target day for prediction, if an electric vehicle that is not desired to participate in the power supply on the target day is connected to the charging and discharging facility, even if the remaining charge capacity of the battery increases to the post-charge target capacity before the increase, the charging of the battery is not terminated, and the battery is charged to the post-charge target capacity after the increase. If an electric vehicle that is desired to participate in the power supply on the target day is connected to the charging and discharging facility on the day before the target day for prediction, the charging of the battery is terminated at the post-charge target capacity before the increase. When each electric vehicle after charging is operated from the day before the target day for prediction to the target day and returns to the parking facility, the charge state of the battery of each electric vehicle changes. After this change, the charge states SOC13 and SOC14 of the batteries of the electric vehicles that are not desired to participate in the power supply are higher than the charge states SOC11 and SOC12 of the batteries of the electric vehicles that are desired to participate in the power supply. Electric vehicles with high charge states SOC13 and SOC14 of the battery have a lower connection probability to the charging and discharging facility than electric vehicles with low charge states SOC11 and SOC12 of the battery. Since the charge state of the battery of an electric vehicle that is not desired to participate in the power supply on the target day is likely to be higher than that of an electric vehicle that is desired to participate in the power supply on the target day, the connection to the charging and discharging facility is suppressed. When the margin on the upper limit capacity side of the battery is reduced for an electric vehicle that is not desired to participate in the power supply on the target day, the command value indicating the post-charge target capacity of the battery, which is commanded by the EV group control unit 30 to the control unit 4 of the charging and discharging facility to which the electric vehicle is connected, increases from the initial command value. In this case, the charge control of the battery of the electric vehicle by the EV group control unit 30 is the first control.

[0031] The planning adjustment unit 304 may increase the margin on the upper limit capacity side of the battery for electric vehicles that are desired to participate in the power supply on the target prediction date. When the margin on the upper limit capacity side of the battery is increased, the post-charge target capacity of the battery is reduced by the increased margin. On the day before the target prediction date, when an electric vehicle that is desired to participate in the power supply on the target prediction date is connected to the charging and discharging facility, it ends when the remaining charge capacity of the battery increases to the post-charge target capacity after reduction before increasing to the post-charge target capacity after reduction. When an electric vehicle that does not want to participate in the power supply on the target prediction date is connected to the charging and discharging facility on the day before the target prediction date, even if it increases to the post-charge target capacity after reduction, the charging of the battery is not ended, and the battery is charged until it increases to the post-charge target capacity before reduction. Even when the margin on the upper limit capacity side of the battery is increased for electric vehicles that are desired to participate in the power supply on the target prediction date, the same thing occurs as when the margin on the upper limit capacity side of the battery is reduced for electric vehicles that do not want to participate in the power supply on the target prediction date. When an electric vehicle is connected to the charging and discharging facility on the day before the target prediction date, the electric vehicle that does not want to participate in the power supply on the target prediction date is likely to have a higher battery charge state than the electric vehicle that is desired to participate in the power supply on the target prediction date, so the connection to the charging and discharging facility is suppressed. When the margin on the upper limit capacity side of the battery is increased for electric vehicles that are desired to participate in the power supply on the target prediction date, the command value indicating the post-charge target capacity of the battery, which is commanded by the EV group control unit 30 to the control unit 4 of the charging and discharging facility to which the electric vehicle is connected, decreases from the initial command value. In this case, the charging control of the battery of the electric vehicle by the EV group control unit 30 becomes the second control.

[0032] When the state prediction unit 301 acquires the adjustment content from the plan adjustment unit 304, it can re-predict the remaining charge capacity of the battery when the electric vehicle is expected to park at the parking facility during the prediction period, reflecting the acquired adjustment content, for each electric vehicle. Based on the result re-predicted by the state prediction unit 301, the behavior prediction unit 302 can re-predict the probability that the electric vehicle at the parking facility is connected to the charging / discharging facility for each electric vehicle over the prediction period. Based on the result re-predicted by the behavior prediction unit 302, the plan creation unit 303 can re-predict the total charging demand and the total dischargeable amount regarding the batteries of the electric vehicles connected to the charging / discharging facility during the prediction period. The plan creation unit 303 can output the re-predicted prediction results for each hour during the prediction period to the overall control unit 10.

[0033] The calculation unit 305 can obtain the identification information of the battery of the electric vehicle connected to the charging and discharging facility from the control unit 4 of the charging and discharging facility. The calculation unit 305 obtains information about the electric vehicle connected to the charging and discharging facility from the first to third databases 311 to 313. The calculation unit 305 obtains information including the current charge capacity of the battery of the electric vehicle connected to the charging and discharging facility from the first database 311. The calculation unit 305 obtains the preference information and change request information about the electric vehicle connected to the charging and discharging facility from the second and third databases 312 and 313. When the prediction adjustment unit 101 determines that the adjustment risk of the power supply and demand of the entire building is "none", the calculation unit 305 calculates the charging demand of the battery of the electric vehicle connected to the charging and discharging facility. The calculation unit 305 can calculate the charging demand of the battery based on, for example, the charging and discharging power assigned to the battery of the electric vehicle determined by the overall control unit 10 and the information obtained from the first to third databases 311 to 313. The calculation unit 305 outputs a charging command including the calculated charge amount to the control unit 4 of the charging and discharging facility. The calculation unit 305 may output, for example, the identification information of the electric vehicle, the identification information of the charging and discharging facility, and the charging output command value of the battery as the charging command. The identification information of the charging and discharging facility is the identification information of the charging and discharging facility to which the control unit 4, which is the acquisition source of the identification information of the electric vehicle obtained by the calculation unit 305, is provided and to which the electric vehicle is connected. The charging output command value of the battery is the target capacity when the charging and discharging facility with the identification information charges the battery of the electric vehicle with the identification information. The charging output command value is the command value indicating the target capacity after charging of the battery, which is commanded by the EV group control unit 30 to the control unit 4 as described above. The charging output command value output by the EV group control unit 30 to the control unit 4 is a value within the range of the desired lower limit capacity and the desired upper limit capacity. The EV group control unit 30 does not output a charging output command value that is outside the range of the desired lower limit capacity and the desired upper limit capacity to the control unit 4.

[0034] FIG. 6 and FIG. 7 are flowcharts showing an example of the procedure of the charge / discharge control method according to an embodiment of the present invention. This charge / discharge control method can be executed in the building power management device 1. The building power management device 1 corresponds to the charge / discharge control device of the embodiment. As shown in FIG. 6, in the charge / discharge control method of the embodiment, the facility control unit 20 and the EV group control unit 30 respectively formulate medium-term power demand prediction and power supply prediction (steps S201, S301). The power demand prediction is the power demand by the power consumption elements of the building excluding electric vehicles predicted by the facility control unit 20. The power supply prediction is the power supply that the batteries of the electric vehicles connected to the charging / discharging facility predicted by the EV group control unit 30 supply to the power grid by discharging. The medium term refers to the prediction period, and in this embodiment, it is the period from now until one week later. The adjustment unit 101 of the overall control unit 10 compares the power demand and the power supply predicted by the facility control unit 20 and the EV group control unit 30. This comparison may be performed, for example, on a daily basis. In this comparison, the adjustment unit 101 compares the value obtained by multiplying the daily power demand by the above-mentioned safety rate count with the power supply on the same day as the power demand (step S101). If the power supply exceeds the power demand multiplied by the safety rate coefficient on all days during the prediction period (YES in step S101), the adjustment unit 101 determines that the adjustment risk is "none" (step S102). The adjustment unit 101 also determines in step S102 that there is no intervention in the battery charging control by the EV group control unit 30. After this determination, the process proceeds to the procedure of step S105 described later. If there is a day during the prediction period when the power supply is less than or equal to the power demand multiplied by the safety rate coefficient (NO in step S101), the adjustment unit 101 determines that the adjustment risk is "present" (step S103). FIG. 8 is a graph schematically showing the determination content performed by the adjustment unit 101. In FIG. 8, an example is shown in which the power supply S1 of the EV group control unit 30 is less than or equal to the power demand R2 obtained by multiplying the power demand R1 of the prediction result of the facility control unit 20 by the safety rate coefficient on the fourth day during the prediction period surrounded by the broken-line frame. Returning to FIG. 6, in step S103, the adjustment unit 101 instructs the facility control unit 20 and the EV group control unit 30 to formulate a plan at the time of risk. This instruction includes information indicating the day when the power supply is less than or equal to the power demand multiplied by the safety rate.The instruction of the adjustment unit 101 may include information indicating, among the days when the supplied power is less than or equal to the power demand multiplied by the safety factor, the time periods every hour when the supplied power is less than or equal to the power demand multiplied by the safety factor.

[0035] Based on the instruction of the adjustment unit 101, the facility control unit 20 formulates, for example, a prediction of the power demand during the current period, which is set as the time period when the supplied power is less than or equal to the power demand multiplied by the safety factor, as a risk plan (step S202). The current period is a period when the power to be supplied to the facility from the battery in the future is insufficient. The current period is included in the prediction period. The time period that is the current period can be, for example, one hour that is the target for the planning unit 303 to predict the charge and discharge amount of the battery of the electric vehicle connected to the charge and discharge facility during the prediction period. The time period that is the current period corresponds to the second period. The power demand prediction for the current period formulated by the facility control unit 20 is output to the overall control unit 10 and is used in the procedure of step S104 described later performed by the adjustment unit 101.

[0036] Based on the instructions of the adjustment unit 101, the EV group control unit 30 predicts the power supply capacity of the battery that can be supplied during the current period when the supplied power is less than or equal to the power demand multiplied by the safety factor. The battery for which the power supply capacity is predicted is the battery of the electric vehicle staying in the parking facility of the building. The EV group control unit 30 formulates the predicted battery power supply capacity as a risk plan (step S302). The EV group control unit 30 may formulate a risk plan for each group of electric vehicles with similar driving characteristics. When formulating the risk plan, the EV group control unit 30 predicts the usage status of each electric vehicle during the current period based on the vehicle information and preference information in the first and second databases 311 and 312. The usage status may include the target capacity after charging and the predicted capacity upon arrival of the battery during the prediction period, the charger connection probability, and the estimated stay time. The target capacity after charging of the battery indicates the target capacity of the battery during charging, which is predicted when the electric vehicle is connected to the charging and discharging equipment of the parking facility during the prediction period. The predicted capacity upon arrival indicates the remaining charge capacity of the predicted battery when the electric vehicle arrives at the parking facility during the prediction period. The charger connection probability indicates the probability that an electric vehicle arriving at the parking facility during the prediction period is connected to the charging and discharging equipment. The charger connection probability can be estimated based on the stay probability during the current period and the connection probability predicted by the behavior prediction unit 302. The stay probability during the current period indicates the probability that an electric vehicle stays and parks at the parking facility during the current period when the power to be supplied from the battery to the building as a facility is insufficient. The EV group control unit 30 can predict the stay probability of the electric vehicle during the current period based on, for example, the predicted arrival time and departure time predicted by the state prediction unit 301. The estimated stay time indicates the length of time that an electric vehicle arriving at the parking facility during the prediction period is predicted to stay at the parking facility. The target capacity after charging, the predicted capacity upon arrival, the charger connection probability, and the estimated stay time can be predicted based on, for example, past vehicle information. FIG. 9 is a diagram showing a part of the risk plan formulated by the EV group control unit 30. In FIG. 9, the usage status of the electric vehicle A predicted by the EV group control unit 30 on April 2, which is the prediction target day D2, and April 1, which is the previous day and the pre-intervention day D1, in the predicted risk plan is shown.The EV group control unit 30 can predict the supply power of the battery of the electric vehicle A during the current period based on, for example, the dischargeable amount predicted by the behavior prediction unit 302 and the discharge rate of the battery by the charging and discharging equipment.

[0037] Returning to FIG. 6, the plan adjustment unit 304 of the EV group control unit 30 sets a margin regarding the allowable range of the remaining charge capacity of the battery (step S303). The plan adjustment unit 304 can set a margin on the desired upper limit capacity side, for example, within the range of the difference between the post-charge target capacity and the desired upper limit capacity of the risk-time plan formulated by the EV group control unit 30. The plan adjustment unit 304 can set a margin on the desired lower limit capacity side, for example, within the range of the difference between the predicted capacity at arrival of the risk-time plan formulated by the EV group control unit 30 and the desired lower limit capacity. For example, when the desired lower limit capacity and the desired upper limit capacity are 25 kWh and 45 kWh, respectively, the plan adjustment unit 304 may set the margins of the desired lower limit capacity and the desired upper limit capacity to 5 kWh each. For example, when the margins are set to 5 kWh each, the EV group control unit 30 generally controls the charging of the battery so that the battery is charged between 30 (=25 + 5) kWh and 40 (=45 - 5) kWh. The battery charging control performed by the EV group control unit 30 based on the margin set by the plan adjustment unit 304 is performed within the range of the desired lower limit capacity and the desired upper limit capacity, which are the predetermined charge states for the electric vehicle, which is an automobile.

[0038] As shown in FIG. 7, the plan adjustment unit 304 calculates, as the intervention amount, the amount of change in the margin capacity on the pre-intervention date when the EV group control unit 30 intervenes in the battery charging control (step S304). For example, the plan adjustment unit 304 can determine the sign and magnitude of the intervention capacity of the margin on the pre-intervention date corresponding to the magnitude of the power supplied to the battery for each electric vehicle on the prediction target date. For example, as for the electric vehicle A in FIG. 9, on the prediction target date D2, the estimated stay time at the parking facility is short, and it cannot contribute highly to the power supply by discharging the battery connected to the charging and discharging facility, so it becomes an electric vehicle that does not want to participate in the power supply on the prediction target date. The state prediction unit 301 acquires the intervention amount calculated by the plan adjustment unit 304 as the adjustment content, and reflects the acquired adjustment content to re-predict the total charging requirement amount and the total dischargeable amount regarding the batteries of the electric vehicles connected to the charging and discharging facility during the prediction period for each electric vehicle. Based on the re-predicted result, the state prediction unit 301 predicts the state of the battery of the electric vehicle arriving at the parking facility during the corresponding period on the prediction target date for each electric vehicle (step S305). For example, the state prediction unit 301 predicts that the battery of the electric vehicle A shown in FIG. 9 will be charged to 40 (=35 + 5) kWh, which is higher than the target capacity after charging by the margin amount, on the pre-intervention date D1. Based on the result re-predicted by the state prediction unit 301, the action prediction unit 302 re-predicts the probability that the electric vehicle at the parking facility will be connected to the charging and discharging facility during the corresponding period for each electric vehicle. For example, based on the characteristic line L in FIG. 3, the action prediction unit 302 predicts the connection probability to the charging and discharging facility of the electric vehicle arriving at the parking facility during the corresponding period on the prediction target date for each electric vehicle (step S306). For this prediction, the characteristic line L in FIG. 3 obtained as a relationship common to all electric vehicles may be used. By using the characteristic line L common to all electric vehicles, the tendency of operation for each electric vehicle can be reflected in the prediction of the connection probability to the charging and discharging facility. If the electric vehicle A in FIG. 9 is charged only up to 35 kWh, which is the target capacity after charging, on the pre-intervention date D1, the predicted capacity at arrival of the battery of the electric vehicle A during the corresponding period on the prediction target date D2 is 15 kWh as shown in FIG. 9. When a margin of 5 kWh is set on the desired upper limit capacity side, the predicted capacity at arrival of the battery of the electric vehicle A during the corresponding period on the prediction target date D2 is 20 (=15 + 5) kWh.FIG. 10 is a graph showing changes in the connection probability of the electric vehicle A to the charging and discharging equipment on the prediction target date predicted by the action prediction unit 302. As shown in FIG. 10, when the predicted arrival capacity changes from 15 kWh to 20 kWh during the corresponding period on the prediction target date D2, the connection probability of the electric vehicle A to the charging and discharging equipment during the corresponding period corresponding to each of the charge states SOC21 and SOC22 decreases from 80% to 60%. When the plan adjustment unit 304 intervenes in the charging control of the battery of the electric vehicle A on the pre-intervention date D1, it is suppressed that the electric vehicle A that does not want to participate in the power supply on the prediction target date D2 is connected to the charging and discharging equipment during the corresponding period on the prediction target date D2. When the plan adjustment unit 304 intervenes in the charging control of the battery of the electric vehicle A on the pre-intervention date D1, it is suppressed that other electric vehicles that want to participate in the power supply cannot be connected to the charging and discharging equipment during the corresponding period on the prediction target date D2.

[0039] Returning to FIG. 7, the EV group control unit 30 calculates, for each electric vehicle, the probability of participating in the power supply of the electric vehicle during the current period on the prediction target date D2 (step S307). The EV group control unit 30 predicts, for each electric vehicle, the expected arrival time at the parking facility of the electric vehicle on the prediction target date D2 based on the vehicle information of each electric vehicle. Based on the connection probability predicted by the behavior prediction unit 302 for other electric vehicles whose arrival prediction time arrives before the predicted arrival prediction time, the EV group control unit 30 predicts, for each electric vehicle, the probability of the existence of charge / discharge facilities that can be connected when the electric vehicle arrives at the parking facility. The EV group control unit 30 can calculate, for each electric vehicle, the probability of participating in the power supply for each electric vehicle by multiplying the predicted probability of existence by the connection probability predicted by the behavior prediction unit 302. When the frequency of electric vehicles arriving at the parking facility and the expected arrival time of the electric vehicle at the parking facility vary by day, the EV group control unit 30 may change the method for calculating the probability of the electric vehicle participating in the power supply. Even for electric vehicles whose probability of participating in the power supply is intentionally made low, the EV group control unit 30 may change the method for calculating the probability of the electric vehicle participating in the power supply. The changed calculation method may be, for example, multiplying the probability of existence by the connection probability and further multiplying by the probability that the electric vehicle stays at the parking facility at the predicted arrival prediction time. When the user can input and specify whether to participate in the power supply from the user interface 5 when parking the electric vehicle at the parking facility, the EV group control unit 30 may change the method for calculating the probability of the electric vehicle participating in the power supply. The changed calculation method may be, for example, calculating the probability that participation is specified as possible from the vehicle information and multiplying the predicted probability of existence by the connection probability and the calculated probability.

[0040] The EV group control unit 30 calculates, for each electric vehicle, the expected value of power supply by the battery of the electric vehicle participating in power supply during the corresponding period on the prediction target date D2 (step S308). FIG. 11 is a diagram schematically showing the content predicted and calculated by the procedure of steps S305 to S308 in FIG. 7. The values of each item shown in the left frame in the figure and the connection probability corresponding to the state of charge SOC31 in the graph on the right in the figure are elements that can be used for calculating the expected value of power supply. The predicted SOC in the frame indicates the expected capacity at arrival predicted by the state prediction unit 301. The desired charge SOC indicates the state of charge corresponding to the target capacity after charging. The stay time indicates the time that the electric vehicle stays in the parking facility during the corresponding period on the prediction target date D2. The stay time can be calculated, for example, based on the predicted arrival time and predicted departure time predicted by the state prediction unit 301. The dischargeable amount is the dischargeable amount predicted by the behavior prediction unit 302. The values of each element are predicted and calculated in the procedure of steps S305 to S308. The EV group control unit 30 can calculate the expected value of power supply by appropriately using these elements. FIG. 12 is a diagram showing an example of the expected value of power supply calculated by the EV group control unit 30 for three electric vehicles A to C, for example. The supply power in FIG. 12 corresponds to the supply power of the battery of electric vehicle A during the corresponding period predicted by the EV group control unit 30. The EV group control unit 30 can predict the supply power of the battery for each electric vehicle based on the dischargeable amount and the discharge rate of the battery by the charge and discharge facility. The participation probability in FIG. 12 is the participation probability of the electric vehicle in power supply during the corresponding period on the prediction target date D2 predicted by the EV group control unit 30. The EV group control unit 30 can predict the participation probability, for example, based on the existence probability and the corresponding period stay probability predicted by the EV group control unit 30 and the connection probability predicted by the behavior prediction unit 302. The EV group control unit 30 can calculate, for each electric vehicle, the expected value of the battery of the electric vehicle based on the supply power of the battery and the participation probability. The EV group control unit 30 may calculate the expected value of the battery by multiplying the supply power of the battery by the participation probability, for example.

[0041] Returning to FIG. 7, the EV group control unit 30 integrates, one by one, the expected values of the batteries of the electric vehicles that participate in the power supply during the corresponding period of the prediction target date D2, calculated for each electric vehicle (step S309). When the EV group control unit 30 reduces the margin on the desired lower limit capacity on the pre-intervention date D1 for the electric vehicles that are desired to participate in the power supply on the prediction target date D2, the EV group control unit 30 may integrate the expected values of the batteries of the electric vehicles with a higher probability of participating in the power supply during the corresponding period earlier than those with a lower probability. The participation probability can be predicted based on the stay probability during the corresponding period predicted by the EV group control unit 30. The EV group control unit 30 can determine the electric vehicles for which the expected values of the batteries are to be integrated based on the stay probability during the corresponding period. The electric vehicles determined as the targets become the electric vehicles for which the margin on the desired lower limit capacity is to be reduced on the pre-intervention date D1. The EV group control unit 30 can determine the electric vehicles for which the margin on the desired lower limit capacity is to be reduced on the pre-intervention date D1 based on the expected values calculated using the above-described battery supply power and the stay probability during the corresponding period used for predicting the participation probability. The batteries of the electric vehicles for which the margin on the desired lower limit capacity is reduced on the pre-intervention date D1 have less remaining charge capacity on the prediction target date D2 than the batteries of other electric vehicles. By arranging the order of the electric vehicles for which the integrated values of the batteries are integrated as described above, it is possible to suppress the electric vehicles with less remaining charge capacity from participating in the power supply on the prediction target date D2 more than necessary. By this suppression, the electric vehicles can be advantageously operated in ensuring the cruising range that the electric vehicles can travel after the prediction target date D2. The EV group control unit 30 notifies the overall control unit 10 of the integrated expected value Σ supply expected value.

[0042] The adjustment unit 101 of the overall control unit 10 compares the Σ supply expected value for the current period notified by the EV group control unit 30 with the power demand due to the power consumption elements of the building excluding electric vehicles predicted by the facility control unit 20 for the current period of the prediction target date D2 (step S104). Based on this comparison, the adjustment unit 101 determines whether it is possible to eliminate the shortage of the battery supply power with respect to the power demand of the building during the current period. If the Σ supply expected value for the current period exceeds the power demand for the current period multiplied by the safety factor coefficient (YES in step S104), the shortage of the battery supply power with respect to the power demand of the building during the current period is eliminated. In this case, the process proceeds to the procedure of step S105. In step S105, it is determined that the power demand plan has been established. When the power demand plan is established, the overall control unit 10, the facility control unit 20, and the EV group control unit 30 of the building power management device 1 can execute the established power demand plan.

[0043] If the Σ supply expected value for the current period is less than or equal to the power demand for the current period multiplied by the safety factor coefficient (NO in step S101), the shortage of the battery supply power with respect to the power demand of the building during the current period is not eliminated. In this case, the adjustment unit 101 notifies the EV group control unit 30 that the shortage of the supply power has not been eliminated. FIG. 13 is a graph schematically showing the determination content performed by the adjustment unit 101. In FIG. 13, an example is shown in which although the Σ supply expected value S11 for the current period exceeds the power demand R11 for the current period, it becomes less than or equal to the power demand R12 for the current period multiplied by the safety factor coefficient during the period of Time3 to 4 in the current period.

[0044] Returning to FIG. 7, the EV group control unit 30 that has received a notice that the Σ supply expected value for the current period is less than or equal to the power demand for the current period multiplied by the safety factor coefficient checks whether the number of electric vehicles obtained by integrating the battery expected values in step S309 is the total number (step S310). If it is less than the total number (NO in step S310), the process returns to step S309. If it is the total number (YES in step S310), the plan adjustment unit 304 reduces the value of the margin set in step S303. The reduction width of the margin value may be changed each time reduction is performed, or may remain constant. The EV group control unit 30 checks whether the value of the margin after reduction is greater than 0 (step S311). If the value of the margin after reduction is greater than 0 (YES in step S311), the process returns to step S304. If the value of the margin after reduction is 0 or less (NO in step S311), the EV group control unit 30 determines that there is no solution for the supply power plan by the batteries of the electric vehicles such that the power demand plan is satisfied (step S313). The EV group control unit 30 notifies the overall control unit 10 that there is no solution for the power demand plan to be satisfied (step S314). The EV group control unit 30 may notify the overall control unit 10, for example, of the supply power plan including the Σ supply expected value for the current period notified to the overall control unit 10 immediately before as a limit case. In this case, the overall control unit 10 may, for example, cause the facility control unit 20 to change the power demand plan formulated based on the notified limit case.

[0045] In the present embodiment, for example, for electric vehicles that are not desired to participate in the power supply of the battery, the margin on the desired upper limit capacity side is reduced on the pre-intervention date D1, and the target capacity after charging of the battery is increased. By this increase, the state of charge on the prediction target date D2 of the electric vehicle that is not desired to participate in the power supply is increased, and the probability that the electric vehicle that is not desired to participate in the power supply is connected to the charge / discharge facility on the prediction target date D2 is reduced. The possibility that an electric vehicle that is desired to participate in the power supply is connected to the charge / discharge facility on the prediction target date D2 is increased, and the participation of an electric vehicle with a high expectation of participation in the charge / discharge control can be induced.

[0046] The EV group control unit 30 determines an electric vehicle to be targeted for reducing the margin on the lower limit capacity side on the pre-intervention date D1 based on the expected value of the battery and the probability of staying in the parking facility during the current period that the electric vehicle is parked in the parking facility. Thereby, the EV group control unit 30 can preferentially select, as the electric vehicle to be targeted for charging control intervention, an electric vehicle with a relatively high expected value of power supply of the battery on the prediction target date D2. The adjustment unit 101 determines whether it is possible to eliminate the shortage of the battery's supply power with respect to the power demand of the building during the current period by comparing Σ supply expected value obtained by integrating the expected values of the electric vehicles during the current period with the power demand during the current period predicted by the facility control unit 20. Thereby, the EV group control unit 30 can select, as the electric vehicle to be targeted for charging control intervention, the electric vehicle that is minimally necessary to eliminate the shortage of the battery's supply power. The adjustment unit 101 determines whether the supply power of the battery is insufficient with respect to the power demand of the building in units of the prediction period. When the adjustment unit 101 determines that the supply power of the battery is insufficient with respect to the power demand of the building, the adjustment unit 101 determines whether the shortage of the battery's supply power is eliminated by the intervention of the EV group control unit 30 in the battery charging control in units of the current period that is shorter than the prediction period. By determining whether it is possible to eliminate the shortage of the supply power by dividing it into periods shorter than the determination of the shortage of the supply power, it is possible to narrow down the time zone that is particularly important for eliminating the shortage of the supply power and cause the EV group control unit 30 to intervene in the battery charging control.

[0047] The behavior prediction unit 302 predicts the connection probability of the electric vehicle to the charging and discharging facility using data associating the connection probability of the electric vehicle to the charging and discharging facility with the state of charge of the battery. Thereby, it is possible to appropriately obtain the connection probability of the electric vehicle to the charging and discharging facility corresponding to the state of charge of the battery, and appropriately obtain the probability that the electric vehicle can participate in the power supply of the battery during the current period of the prediction target date D2.

[0048] When the EV group control unit 30 intervenes in the charging control of the battery due to an increase or decrease in the margin, it does not perform an intervention that would cause the margin to become a negative value. For this reason, the EV group control unit 30 does not output a charging output command value that is outside the range of the desired lower limit capacity and the desired upper limit capacity to the control unit 4 of the charging and discharging facility to which the electric vehicle whose margin is to be increased or decreased is connected. As a result, it is possible to avoid an intervention in the charging control in which the battery is charged with a command value that is outside the range from the lower limit value to the upper limit value of the charging capacity acceptable to the user. The margin is set at the end of the range from the desired lower limit capacity to the desired upper limit capacity. When the margin is increased or decreased, for example, the value of the target capacity after charging of the battery is changed within the range from the desired lower limit capacity to the desired upper limit capacity. By this change, it is possible to cause the EV group control unit 30 to perform an intervention in the charging control of the battery with the target capacity after charging of the battery after the increase or decrease in the margin as the command value for the charging control within the range from the lower limit value to the upper limit value of the charging capacity of the battery acceptable to the user.

[0049] The EV group control unit 30 predicts the probability of participation in the power supply of the electric vehicle during the corresponding period on the prediction target day D2 based on the connection probability predicted by the behavior prediction unit 302, the existence probability predicted by the EV group control unit 30, and the stay probability during the corresponding period. The EV group control unit 30 predicts the expected value of the power supply of the battery, which is the supply power of the battery during the corresponding period, based on the supply power of the battery predicted by the EV group control unit 30 and the participation probability. The adjustment unit 101 determines whether or not the shortage of the supply power of the battery is eliminated by the intervention of the EV group control unit 30 in the charging control of the battery based on the predicted expected value. When it is determined that the shortage is not eliminated, the plan adjustment unit 304 reduces the margin and resets the command value output by the EV group control unit 30 to the control unit 4. After the resetting of the command value, the adjustment unit 101 re-determines whether or not the shortage of the supply power of the battery is eliminated by the intervention of the EV group control unit 30 in the charging control of the battery. As a result, by repeating the change of the margin and gradually changing the command value output by the EV group control unit 30 to the control unit 4, it is possible to determine an appropriate intervention content for the EV group control unit 30 to intervene in the charging control of the battery that can eliminate the shortage of the supply power of the battery.

[0050] The above-described embodiments and their modifications are examples of the present invention. Therefore, the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and various changes can be made according to the design and the like as long as they do not deviate from the technical idea of the present invention even in forms other than these embodiments.

Explanation of Reference Numerals

[0051] 1 Building power management device (charge / discharge control device) 20 Facility control unit (first prediction unit) 30 EV group control unit (second prediction unit, charge control unit) D1 Pre-intervention date (period before the shortage period in time series) D2 Prediction target date (period including the shortage period)

Claims

1. A charge / discharge control method for controlling the charge and discharge of a battery of an automobile by a charge / discharge facility of a facility, comprising: predicting future power supply and demand of the facility; predicting power that will be supplied to the facility from the battery in the future due to future discharge of the battery by all the charge / discharge facilities existing in the facility; when there is a period in which the power to be supplied to the facility from the battery is insufficient with respect to the future discharge power required for the battery calculated based on the future power supply and demand of the facility, performing at least one of a first control and a second control; defining the first control as control for an automobile determined to have a relatively low expected value, which is the amount of power predicted to be discharged from the battery and supplied to the facility during the period of shortage; in the first control, increasing a command value of charging power of the battery instructed to the charge / discharge facility for a period before the period of shortage in time series, compared to an initial command value corresponding to the charging power of the battery by the charge / discharge facility predicted for the automobile for the period before the period of shortage, which is determined to have a relatively low expected value; defining the second control as control for an automobile determined to have a relatively high expected value during the period of shortage; in the second control, decreasing the command value for the period before the period of shortage, compared to the initial command value of the automobile determined to have a relatively high expected value; A charge / discharge control method.

2. The charge / discharge control method according to claim 1, further comprising predicting, for each automobile, a stay probability, which is a probability that the automobile stays at the facility during the period of shortage, calculating, for each automobile, a supply power, which is an amount of power that the battery can discharge during a stay at the facility including the period of shortage of the automobile, and determining, for each automobile, the automobile to be the subject of at least one of the controls based on the stay probability predicted for each automobile and the supply power calculated for each automobile.

3. For each vehicle, obtain a connection probability which is the probability that the vehicle is connected to the charging and discharging facility during the period of shortage, and based on the obtained connection probability for each vehicle, predict, for each vehicle, an expected value during the period of shortage when the at least one control is executed, and based on the expected value during the period of shortage when the at least one control is executed, which is predicted for each vehicle, determine whether it is possible to eliminate the period of shortage by the at least one control. The charging and discharging control method according to claim 1.

4. Predict, for each vehicle, a state of charge of the battery during the period of shortage, and using data associating the state of charge for each vehicle with the connection probability, obtain the connection probability corresponding to the state of charge predicted for each vehicle. The charging and discharging control method according to claim 3.

5. Determine whether there is a period of shortage for each first period, and perform the at least one control for each second period shorter than the first period during the period of shortage. The charging and discharging control method according to claim 1.

6. Perform the at least one control only when the command value after increase or decrease by the at least one control during the previous period is within a range of the state of charge of the battery predetermined for the vehicle to which the at least one control is applied. The charging and discharging control method according to claim 1.

7. Provide a margin at the end of the range, and set the command value after increase or decrease by the at least one control during the previous period to a portion excluding the margin from the range. The charging and discharging control method according to claim 6.

8. For each vehicle, determine the connection probability, which is the probability that the vehicle is connected to the charging / discharging facility during the period of shortage. Based on the determined connection probability for each vehicle, predict, for each vehicle, the expected value during the period of shortage when at least one of the above controls is executed. Based on the expected value during the period of shortage when at least one of the above controls is executed, which is predicted for each vehicle, determine whether it is possible to eliminate the period of shortage by at least one of the above controls. When it is determined that it is not possible to eliminate the period of shortage by at least one of the above controls, reduce the margin, reset the command value after increase or decrease by at least one of the above controls, and re-determine whether it is possible to eliminate the period of shortage by at least one of the above controls. The charging / discharging control method according to claim 7.

9. A charging / discharging control device that controls charging and discharging of a battery of a vehicle by a charging / discharging facility of a facility, a first prediction unit that predicts future power supply and demand of the facility; a second prediction unit that predicts power that will be supplied to the facility from the battery in the future by discharging the battery in the future by all the charging / discharging facilities existing in the facility; a charging control unit that performs at least one of a first control and a second control for charging when there is a period in which the power that will be supplied to the facility from the battery predicted by the second prediction unit is insufficient with respect to the future discharge power required for the battery calculated based on the prediction of the first prediction unit; the first control is a control for a vehicle determined to have a relatively low expected value, which is the amount of power predicted to be discharged from the battery and supplied to the facility during the period of shortage; in the first control, increase the command value of the charging power of the battery instructed to the charging / discharging facility for a period before the period of shortage in time series, compared to the initial command value corresponding to the charging power of the battery by the charging / discharging facility predicted for the vehicle determined to have a relatively low expected value for the period before; the second control is a control for a vehicle determined to have a relatively high expected value during the period of shortage; in the second control, decrease the command value for the period before, compared to the initial command value of the vehicle determined to have a relatively high expected value; A charging / discharging control device.

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