Capacity planning support device, capacity planning support method, and program

Abstract

To support a user who is considering the introduction of a water electrolysis system in making a decision on whether to introduce the system.SOLUTION: A capacity planning support device 10 for supporting the planning of a capacity of a water electrolysis system, comprises: an MMI 110 that accepts registration of information including power generation time series data in an introduction planned area of the water electrolysis system and predetermined parameters; a preprocessing unit 120 that, based on the registered information, generates water electrolysis power consumption data and water electrolysis non-consumable power data for each of plural stages of installed capacity ratios being the ratios of the water electrolysis capacity to the total power generation capacity; a problem generation unit 131 that generates mathematical formulas relating to a predetermined problem on the basis of the processing results of the preprocessing unit 120 and the registered predetermined parameters; and a recommended capacity calculation unit 132 that calculates a recommended capacity using the formulas generated by the problem generation unit 131.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a capacity determination support technology for supporting the determination of the capacity of a water electrolysis capacitor.

Background Art

[0002] In recent years, efforts towards realizing a decarbonized society have been progressing. Since hydrogen is an energy medium that does not emit CO2 during use, it is expected to be developed for industrial, transportation, household, etc. applications in addition to future power generation applications. In particular, green hydrogen derived from renewable energy (hereinafter, may be abbreviated as "re-new energy") by water electrolysis has a higher environmental value than hydrogen derived from fossil fuels, and the need for green hydrogen is increasing.

[0003] In addition, it is expected to be utilized for absorbing surplus re-new energy and supplying regulating power through a system including a large-scale battery directly connected to the power grid and a water electrolysis device for hydrogen production. On the other hand, green hydrogen derived from re-new energy by water electrolysis currently lacks economic viability and price competitiveness because the price of re-new energy power and the cost of water electrolysis are higher compared to hydrogen derived from fossil fuels. Therefore, how to produce green hydrogen at low cost has become an issue.

[0004] Non-Patent Document 1 describes an analysis of cost reduction by reducing the capacity of a water electrolysis facility in hydrogen production using solar power generation.

Prior Art Documents

Non-Patent Documents

[0005]

Non-Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0006] As a measure to reduce the production cost of green hydrogen, in addition to reducing the price of renewable electricity, an approach by constructing an appropriate water electrolysis system is effective. A huge investment is required for the introduction of a water electrolysis system. Therefore, the current situation is that the introduction of the water electrolysis system is progressing very slowly.

[0007] When a user interested in a water electrolysis system considers introducing the system, for example, information regarding economic efficiency, such as how much cost merit can be obtained after how much time has passed since the introduction time and what scale (capacity) of the system should be introduced to be economical, becomes an effective judgment material. However, the efficiency of water electrolysis is not constant and varies depending on operating conditions such as differences in load capacity. Therefore, in order to accurately predict the economic efficiency resulting from the introduction of a water electrolysis system, it is required to quantitatively consider the deterioration of the water electrolysis system.

[0008] The present invention has been made to meet such demands, and an object thereof is to assist a user who is considering introducing a water electrolysis system in making a decision regarding whether to introduce the system.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0009] In order to achieve the above object, the capacity planning support device according to the present invention A capacity determination support device for supporting the determination of the capacity of a water electrolysis system, an MMI that receives registration of power generation time series data and information including predetermined parameters in a planned introduction area of the water electrolysis system, a preprocessing unit that generates water electrolysis power consumption data and water electrolysis non-power consumption data for each equipment capacity ratio in multiple stages, which is the ratio of the water electrolysis capacity to the total power generation capacity, based on the registered information, a problem generation unit that generates a mathematical formula related to a predetermined problem based on the processing result of the preprocessing unit and the registered predetermined parameters, a recommended capacity calculation unit that calculates a recommended capacity using the mathematical formula generated by the problem generation unit, and is characterized mainly by being configured to include the above.

Effect of the Invention

[0010] According to the present invention, it is possible to support a user who is considering introducing a water electrolysis system in making a decision on whether to introduce the system. Problems, configurations, and effects other than the above will be described in detail in the following embodiments.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0011]

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Embodiments for Carrying Out the Invention

[0012] The capacity planning support device, capacity planning support method, and program according to the embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to appropriate drawings. In the description of the capacity planning support device according to the embodiments of the present invention, components having common functions are given common reference numerals, and the overlapping descriptions thereof are omitted.

[0013] [Concept of the Capacity Determination Support Device According to the Embodiment of the Present Invention] First, the concept of the capacity determination support device according to the embodiment of the present invention will be described. The capacity determination support device according to the embodiment of the present invention plays a role of assisting a user who is considering introducing a water electrolysis system including a water electrolysis device and a storage battery in making a decision on whether to introduce the system by presenting a system configuration including a recommended capacity for the user and information on economic indicators related to the system configuration.

[0014] [Definition of Terms Used in the Embodiment of the Present Invention] Here, the terms used in the embodiment of the present invention will be defined. The water electrolysis system is, in principle, a concept including a water electrolysis device and a storage battery. However, a water electrolysis system without a storage battery is also included in the technical scope of the present invention. The capacity related to the water electrolysis system is, in principle, a concept including the water electrolysis capacity and the storage capacity. However, in a water electrolysis system without a storage battery, the capacity related to the water electrolysis system means the water electrolysis capacity. The water electrolysis capacity means the amount of electricity that can be generated by the water electrolysis device. The recommended water electrolysis capacity means the water electrolysis capacity suitable for a user who is considering introducing a water electrolysis system. The storage capacity means the amount of electricity that can be stored in the storage battery. The recommended storage capacity means the storage capacity suitable for a user who is considering introducing a water electrolysis system.

[0015] [Schematic Configuration of the Capacity Determination Support Device 10 According to the Embodiment of the Present Invention] Next, the schematic configuration of the capacity determination support device 10 according to the embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG. 1. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the schematic configuration of the capacity determination support device 10 according to the embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 1, the capacity determination support device 10 according to the embodiment of the present invention includes an MMI (Man Machine Interface) 110, a preprocessing unit 120, an arithmetic unit 130, and a storage unit 140.

[0016] The MMI 110 includes a plurality of devices such as a keyboard 111, a mouse 112, an image display unit 113, and a CD-ROM drive (not shown), and receives input operations from the user and performs predetermined information presentation by inputting and outputting information to and from these devices. The user sets relevant parameters by input operations using the keyboard 111 and mouse 112 provided in the MMI 110, and registers power generation time series data including annual power generation performance data or annual power generation prediction data related to renewable energy in the planned introduction area, basic data including the predicted unit price of power related to the life cycle, and the predicted unit price of hydrogen sales related to the life cycle. The basic data is the basis data used when performing various processes related to the preprocessing unit 120 and the calculation unit 130. In addition, the image display unit 113 provided in the MMI 110 displays the processing results related to the preprocessing unit 120 and the calculation unit 130. Note that the relevant parameters correspond to the "predetermined parameters" of the present invention. The relevant parameters will be described in detail later.

[0017] The preprocessing unit 120 processes the generation of relevant data for executing the calculation unit 130. Specifically, the preprocessing unit 120 includes, as functional units, a water electrolysis degradation estimation unit 121, a power storage degradation estimation unit 122, a facility capacity ratio analysis unit 123, a power consumption analysis unit 124, and a power storage capacity upper limit analysis unit 125. The functions of the preprocessing unit 120 can be realized, for example, by causing a computer to execute a program for generating relevant data.

[0018] The electrolyzer degradation estimation unit 121 estimates the change over time of the electrolysis efficiency, which is a degradation index of the electrolyzer with respect to the cumulative operation time, using the related parameters set and registered by the MMI 110. The change over time of the electrolysis efficiency (hereinafter sometimes referred to as "electrolyzer degradation data"), which is the processing result of the electrolyzer degradation estimation unit 121, is used by the arithmetic unit 130. Note that the execution necessity setting of the electrolyzer degradation estimation unit 121 is set via the MMI 110. When the setting of unnecessary processing related to the electrolyzer degradation estimation unit 121 is set, the electrolyzer degradation estimation unit 121 is not executed.

[0019] The battery degradation estimation unit 122 estimates the change over time of the battery capacity maintenance rate, which is a degradation index of the storage battery with respect to the cumulative operation time, using the related parameters set and registered by the MMI 110. The change over time information of the battery capacity maintenance rate (hereinafter sometimes referred to as "battery degradation data"), which is the processing result of the battery degradation estimation unit 122, is used by the arithmetic unit 130. Note that the execution necessity setting of the battery degradation estimation unit 122 is set via the MMI 110. When the setting of unnecessary processing related to the battery degradation estimation unit 122 is set, the battery degradation estimation unit 122 is not executed.

[0020] The equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 analyzes the upper and lower limits of the consumable power by electrolysis for each equipment capacity ratio (described in detail below) using the related parameters set and registered by the MMI 110 and the power generation time series data (basic data for calculating the total renewable energy generation capacity). Here, the equipment capacity ratio means the ratio of the electrolysis capacity to the total renewable energy generation capacity. For example, in the case where the equipment capacity ratio is 100%, the electrolysis capacity is equal to the total renewable energy generation capacity. The upper and lower limit data of the consumable power by electrolysis for each equipment capacity ratio, which is the processing result of the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123, is stored in the preprocessing unit database 141 and used by the power consumption analysis unit 124 of the preprocessing unit 120.

[0021] The power consumption analysis unit 124 analyzes the electrolysis power consumption and the non-consumable electrolysis power in the case where the electrolysis system is not equipped with a storage battery, using the power generation time series data (power generation performance data related to renewable energy in the planned introduction area) set and registered by the MMI 110, and related parameters and the like. The electrolysis power consumption data and the non-consumable electrolysis power data, which are the processing results of the power consumption analysis unit 124, are stored in the preprocessing unit database 141 and used in the storage capacity upper limit analysis unit 125 and the calculation unit 130 of the preprocessing unit 120. Note that the electrolysis power consumption means the power that can be consumed by the operation of the electrolysis system. Also, the non-consumable electrolysis power means the power that cannot be consumed by the operation of the electrolysis system. In the case where the electrolysis system is not equipped with a storage battery, a situation is assumed in which the operation of the electrolysis system (that is, the electrolysis power consumption) is restricted by the relationship between the power generation performance data and the available electrolysis power range. This will be described in detail later.

[0022] When storing the non-consumable electrolysis power in the storage battery, the storage capacity upper limit analysis unit 125 analyzes how much storage capacity upper limit is required. That is, the storage capacity upper limit analysis unit 125 analyzes the upper limit of the storage capacity for each equipment capacity ratio, using the non-consumable electrolysis power data for each equipment capacity ratio, which is the processing result of the power consumption analysis unit 124, and the related parameters set and registered by the MMI 110. The storage capacity upper limit data for each equipment capacity ratio, which is the processing result of the storage capacity upper limit analysis unit 125, is stored in the preprocessing unit database 141 and used in the calculation unit 130.

[0023] Here, the related data is a concept including the electrolysis degradation data estimated by the electrolysis degradation estimation unit 121, the storage degradation data estimated by the storage degradation estimation unit 122, the upper and lower limit data of the available electrolysis power for each equipment capacity ratio analyzed by the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123, the electrolysis power consumption data and the non-consumable electrolysis power data for each equipment capacity ratio analyzed by the power consumption analysis unit 124, and the storage capacity upper limit data for each equipment capacity ratio analyzed by the storage capacity upper limit analysis unit 125.

[0024] The calculation unit 130 calculates a recommended capacity from an economic perspective based on the processing result in the preprocessing unit 120, the related parameters set and registered by the MMI 110, and the power generation time series data. The recommended capacity is, in principle, a concept including a recommended water electrolysis capacity and a recommended power storage capacity. However, in the case where the water electrolysis system is not equipped with a storage battery, the "recommended capacity" according to the present invention means the recommended water electrolysis capacity.

[0025] Specifically, the calculation unit 130 has, as functional units, a problem generation unit 131 and a recommended capacity calculation unit 132. The functions as the calculation unit 130 can be realized, for example, by causing a computer to execute a program for calculating the recommended capacity.

[0026] The problem generation unit 131 generates an objective function (in this embodiment, "minimization of hydrogen production cost") and a predetermined constraint expression in the optimization calculation based on the water electrolysis power consumption data, the water electrolysis non-power consumption data, the power storage capacity upper limit data, and the related parameters set and registered by the MMI 110 for each equipment capacity ratio (water electrolysis capacity / total power generation capacity), which is the processing result of the preprocessing unit 120. The objective function and the constraint expression will be described in detail later.

[0027] The recommended capacity calculation unit 132 calculates the power storage capacity for each equipment capacity ratio in multiple stages based on the objective function and the constraint expression generated by the problem generation unit 131, and extracts the combination of the equipment capacity ratio and the power storage capacity in which the objective function is the most excellent (the hydrogen production cost is the minimum) from the set of combinations of the calculated power storage capacities for each equipment capacity ratio in multiple stages. Then, the recommended capacity calculation unit 132 obtains a system configuration including a recommended water electrolysis capacity and a recommended power storage capacity that minimize the hydrogen production cost, and an economic index corresponding to the system configuration based on the extracted combination of the equipment capacity ratio and the power storage capacity.

[0028] The storage unit 140 includes a preprocessing unit database 141 and an arithmetic unit database 142. The storage unit 140 stores programs for various processes related to the capacity planning support device 10, and various processing results related to the MMI 110, the preprocessing unit 120, and the arithmetic unit 130.

[0029] Specifically, the capacity planning support device 10 can be realized by a computer (server device or client device) equipped with a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a ROM (Read Only Memory), a RAM (Random Acess Memory), an input / output I / F, etc., a tablet terminal, or the like.

[0030] The storage unit 140 is composed of a ROM, a RAM, etc. By causing the computer to execute the programs stored in the storage unit 140, the MMI 110, the preprocessing unit 120, and the arithmetic unit 130 are functionally realized. Note that the program may be a program that operates on a specific software, such as a macro that operates on spreadsheet software.

[0031] [Schematic operation of the capacity planning support device 10 according to the embodiment of the present invention] Next, the schematic operation of the capacity planning support device 10 according to the embodiment of the present invention will be described. FIG. 2 is a diagram showing the overall processing flow of the capacity planning support device 10.

[0032] In step S100 shown in FIG. 2, the MMI 110 accepts the registration of related parameters and power generation time series data for obtaining the electrolysis system using renewable energy and its economic index for a user who is considering introducing an electrolysis system using renewable energy.

[0033] Specifically, prior to the execution of the capacity determination support device 10, in step S100, the MMI 110 receives an input operation by the user. The user performs the registration of the basic data including the setting of relevant parameters, the annual renewable energy power generation performance data (or the annual renewable energy power generation prediction data) related to the assumed introduction area, and the electricity charges for each year and the unit hydrogen sales price for each year related to the life cycle from now on, respectively, through the input operation via the MMI 110. The information registered here is stored in the preprocessing unit database 141. FIG. 9 shows an example of a data table of power generation time series data. FIG. 10 shows an example of a data table of predicted unit price data of electricity charges related to the life cycle. FIG. 11 shows an example of a data table of predicted unit price of hydrogen sales related to the life cycle. FIG. 12 shows an example of a data table of relevant parameters set by the MMI 110. Note that each of the power generation time series data, the predicted electricity charges for each year related to the life cycle from now on, and the unit hydrogen sales price for each year may be directly registered via the MMI 110, or may be indirectly registered in cooperation with the required external system.

[0034] In step S101, the water electrolysis degradation estimation unit 121 and the battery degradation estimation unit 122 belonging to the preprocessing unit 120 estimate the change in water electrolysis efficiency and the change in battery capacity over time, respectively, using the relevant parameters set and registered by the MMI 110.

[0035] In step S102, the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 belonging to the preprocessing unit 120 analyzes the upper and lower limits of the consumable power by water electrolysis for each equipment capacity ratio (water electrolysis capacity / total power generation capacity) using the relevant parameters set and registered by the MMI 110. Note that the processes of step S101 and step S102 have no time-series dependency. Therefore, the execution order of step S101 and step S102 may be swapped.

[0036] In step 103, the power consumption analysis unit 124 belonging to the preprocessing unit 120 analyzes the electrolysis power consumption and the non - available electrolysis power for each equipment capacity ratio by using the related parameters set and registered by the MMI 110, the power generation time - series data, and the processing result of the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123.

[0037] In step 104, the storage capacity upper - limit analysis unit 125 belonging to the preprocessing unit 120 calculates the upper - limit of the storage capacity by using the non - available electrolysis power which is the analysis result of the power consumption analysis unit 124 and the related parameters set and registered by the MMI 110.

[0038] In step 105, the problem generation unit 131 belonging to the arithmetic unit 130 generates an objective function related to "minimizing the hydrogen production cost" and a predetermined constraint expression.

[0039] In step 106, the recommended capacity calculation unit 132 belonging to the arithmetic unit 130 uses the objective function, the constraint expression generated in step S105, and the processing result obtained by the preprocessing unit 120 to calculate the storage capacity that achieves the objective function of minimizing the hydrogen production cost for each equipment capacity ratio in multiple stages and satisfies the conditions according to the predetermined constraint expression. Next, the recommended capacity calculation unit 132 extracts the combination of the equipment capacity ratio and the storage capacity with the most excellent objective function (the minimum hydrogen production cost) from the set of combinations of storage capacities for each equipment capacity ratio in multiple stages, and based on the extracted combination, obtains a system configuration including the recommended electrolysis capacity and the recommended storage capacity that minimize the hydrogen production cost, and the economic index corresponding to the system configuration. Information regarding the system configuration including the recommended electrolysis capacity and the recommended storage capacity that minimize the hydrogen production cost obtained in step S106, and the economic index corresponding to the system configuration is presented to the image display unit 113 provided in the MMI 110.

[0040] 〔Regarding each process executed by the preprocessing unit 120〕 Next, each process executed by the preprocessing unit 120 will be described. Each functional unit belonging to the preprocessing unit 120 sequentially executes the following processes using the parameters set and registered by the MMI 110, the predicted annual electricity cost, the predicted annual hydrogen sales unit price, and the power generation time series data.

[0041] 〔Processing procedure of the water electrolysis degradation estimation unit 121 belonging to the preprocessing unit 120〕 First, the processing procedure of the water electrolysis degradation estimation unit 121 belonging to the preprocessing unit 120 will be described with reference to FIG. 3. FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing the processing procedure of the water electrolysis degradation estimation unit 121 belonging to the preprocessing unit 120.

[0042] The water electrolysis degradation estimation unit 121 estimates the change over time of the water electrolysis efficiency, which is a degradation index of the water electrolysis device with respect to the cumulative operation time, using the relevant parameters set and registered by the MMI 110. Specifically, in step S301 shown in FIG. 3, the water electrolysis degradation estimation unit 121 acquires the initial water electrolysis efficiency LHV0 [%] and the degradation rate α [%] as the relevant parameters set and registered by the MMI 110, and also acquires the first flag in which the necessity of performing degradation estimation is described.

[0043] In step S302, the water electrolysis degradation estimation unit 121 determines whether it is necessary to perform water electrolysis degradation estimation with reference to the first flag acquired in step S301. As a result of the determination in step S302, if the first flag is "Yes" (Yes in S302) indicating that water electrolysis degradation estimation is required, the water electrolysis degradation estimation unit 121 advances the processing flow to the next step S303. On the other hand, as a result of the determination in step S302, if the first flag is "No" (No in S302) indicating that degradation estimation is not required, the water electrolysis degradation estimation unit 121 jumps the processing flow to step S306.

[0044] In step S303, the water electrolysis degradation estimation unit 121 calculates the water electrolysis degradation reaction rate k using the initial water electrolysis efficiency LHV0 and the degradation rate α, which are the relevant parameters acquired in S301. Here, assuming that the cumulative operation time until the water electrolysis efficiency LHV reaches the degradation rate α is ΔT, the water electrolysis degradation reaction rate k can be expressed by the following (Equation 1) (based on Arrhenius' law).

Number

[0045] In step S304, the water electrolysis degradation estimation unit 121 obtains the change over time of the water electrolysis efficiency LHV related to the water electrolysis device using the water electrolysis degradation reaction rate k calculated in step S303. The water electrolysis efficiency LHV [%] is a function of the water electrolysis cumulative operation time t and can be calculated, for example, by the following (Equation 2).

Number

[0046] In step S305, when the setting for not requiring the implementation of water electrolysis degradation estimation is made (the determination in step S302 is No), the water electrolysis degradation estimation unit 121 substitutes the water electrolysis initial efficiency LHV0 [%] into the water electrolysis efficiency LHV [%] over the entire period (water electrolysis cumulative operation time t). As a result, the water electrolysis efficiency LHV [%] is fixed to the water electrolysis initial efficiency LHV0 [%].

[0047] In step S306, the water electrolysis degradation estimation unit 121 uses either the calculation result of step S304 or the substitution result of step S305 to obtain the water electrolysis device efficiency Eff [kWh / Nm3], which is an efficiency index representing the amount of electric power required to generate 1 Nm3 of hydrogen, based on the following (Equation 3).

Number

[0048] In step S307, the water electrolysis degradation estimation unit 121 causes the pretreatment unit database 141 to store the calculation result of step S307 (the data of the change over time of the water electrolysis efficiency, which is the degradation index of the water electrolysis device). Fig. 13 shows an example of the change over time of the water electrolysis efficiency. The horizontal axis in Fig. 13 is the cumulative operation time, and the vertical axis is the change over time of the water electrolysis efficiency.

[0049] [Processing procedure of the battery degradation estimation unit 122 belonging to the pretreatment unit 120] Next, the processing procedure of the battery degradation estimation unit 122 belonging to the pretreatment unit 120 will be described with reference to Fig. 4. Fig. 4 is a flowchart showing the processing procedure of the battery degradation estimation unit 122 belonging to the pretreatment unit 120.

[0050] The battery degradation estimation unit 122 estimates the change over time of the battery capacity maintenance rate, which is a degradation index of the battery, with respect to the cumulative operation time t, using the related parameters set and registered by the MMI 110. The battery capacity maintenance rate is a degradation index of the battery indicating how much of the initial battery capacity is maintained at the current time.

[0051] Specifically, in step S401 shown in Fig. 4, the battery degradation estimation unit 122 acquires, as the related parameters set and registered by the MMI 110, the initial battery capacity SOC, the capacity maintenance rate EOL at the end of the life, and the cycle life LT, and also acquires a second flag in which the necessity of performing the battery capacity maintenance rate estimation is described.

[0052] In step S402, the battery degradation estimation unit 122 determines whether it is necessary to perform the battery capacity maintenance rate estimation by referring to the second flag acquired in step S401. As a result of the determination in step S402, when the second flag is "Yes" (Yes in S402) indicating that it is necessary to perform the battery capacity maintenance rate estimation, the battery degradation estimation unit 122 advances the processing flow to the next step S403. On the other hand, if the result of the determination in step S402 is "No" (No in S402) indicating that the second flag represents that it is not necessary to perform the estimation of the storage capacity maintenance rate, the storage degradation estimation unit 122 jumps the processing flow to step S404.

[0053] In step 403, the storage degradation estimation unit 122 calculates the storage battery degradation reaction rate kf using the storage initial capacity SOC, the capacity retention rate EOL at the end of life, and the cycle life LT, which are the related parameters obtained in S401. Here, assuming that the number of cycles until the storage capacity retention rate reaches the capacity retention rate EOL at the end of life is the cycle life LT, the storage battery degradation reaction rate kf can be expressed by the following (Equation 4) (based on Arrhenius' law). SOC, EOL, and LT in (Equation 4) are the registered related parameters and are the storage battery related specification values of the storage battery manufacturer.

Equation

[0054] In step S404, the storage degradation estimation unit 122 obtains the storage capacity retention rate Q(t) representing the storage battery degradation state at a certain point in time (time t) using the storage battery degradation reaction rate kf calculated in S403 according to the following (Equation 5).

Equation

[0055] In step S405, in the case where the setting of not performing the estimation of the storage capacity maintenance rate is made (the determination in step S402 is No), the storage degradation estimation unit 122 substitutes 100 [%] into the storage capacity maintenance rate Q(t) over the entire period (cumulative operation time t). As a result, the storage capacity maintenance rate Q(t) is fixed at 100 [%].

[0056] In step S406, the storage degradation estimation unit 122 causes the preprocessing unit database 141 to store the calculation result of step S404 or the substitution result of step S405 (the data of the change over time of the storage capacity maintenance rate, which is the degradation index of the storage battery). FIG. 14 shows an example of the change over time of the storage capacity retention rate. The horizontal axis in FIG. 14 is the cumulative operation time (assuming one cycle per day), and the vertical axis is the change over time of the storage capacity retention rate.

[0057] 〔Processing Procedure of Equipment Capacity Ratio Analysis Unit 123 Belonging to Pretreatment Unit 120〕 Next, the processing procedure of the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 belonging to the pretreatment unit 120 will be described with reference to FIG. 5. FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing the processing procedure of the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 belonging to the pretreatment unit 120.

[0058] The equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 uses the related parameters set and registered by the MMI 110 and the power generation time series data (basic data for calculating the total power generation capacity) to analyze the upper and lower limits of the consumable power by water electrolysis for each equipment capacity ratio (water electrolysis capacity / total renewable energy power generation capacity).

[0059] Specifically, in step S501 shown in FIG. 5, the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 acquires the power generation time series data (total power generation capacity) and the third flag that describes the presence or absence of the total power generation capacity data, and as the related parameters set and registered by the MMI 110, the unit water electrolysis capacity H2CAP_Unit [kW] per water electrolysis device, the operation upper limit ratio Load_min [%], the operation lower limit ratio Load_max [%], the equipment capacity ratio lower limit Lower_Rate [%], the equipment capacity ratio upper limit Upper_Rate [%], and the step size ΔRate [%] are respectively acquired. Here, the power generation time series data (basic data for calculating the total power generation capacity) is actual data or predicted data. An example of the power generation time series data is shown in FIG. 9. In the power generation actual data table shown in FIG. 9, the first column represents the date and time, and the second column represents the power generation output for each date and time.

[0060] In step 502, the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 determines the presence or absence of the total power generation capacity data by referring to the third flag acquired in step S501. If, as a result of the determination in step S502, the third flag is "No" (No in S502) indicating no total power generation capacity data, the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 advances the processing flow to the next step S503. On the other hand, if, as a result of the determination in step S502, the third flag is "Yes" (Yes in S502) indicating that there is total power generation capacity data, the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 jumps the processing flow to step S504.

[0061] In step 503, the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 obtains the total power generation capacity VRE_CAP using the power generation time series data and related parameters acquired in step S501.

[0062] First, the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 calculates the annual power generation amount Total_Energy [kWh] using the power generation time series data acquired in step S501. The annual power generation amount Total_Energy may be calculated, for example, using the following (Equation 6).

Equation

[0063] The equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 obtains the total power generation capacity VRE_CAP [kWh] corresponding to the equipment utilization rate VRE_UR [%] by inversely calculating using the calculated annual power generation amount data Total_Energy and the equipment utilization rate VRE_UR [%] (related parameter set and registered by the MMI110). The total power generation capacity VRE_CAP [kWh] may be calculated, for example, using the following (Equation 7). Note that the units of each variable and constant in (Equation 7) are just examples, and the same concept can be applied even if the units are changed.

Equation

[0064] In step S504, the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 calculates the electrolyzer capacity at the equipment capacity ratio by using the calculated total power generation capacity VRE_CAP and the initial equipment capacity ratio (= the lower limit of the equipment capacity ratio Lower_Rate).

[0065] Next, the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 divides the calculated electrolyzer capacity by the unit electrolyzer capacity H2CAP_Unit [kWh], which is a related parameter set and registered by the MMI110, to calculate the required number of units (the number of electrolyzer devices) at the equipment capacity ratio by using the following (Equation 8). The calculated required number of units is used in step S505.

Equation

[0066] In an electrolyzer, there is a load range suitable for improving the electrolysis efficiency. Therefore, compared with introducing a single large-capacity electrolyzer for single operation, parallel operation of multiple units with smaller capacities of individual units (electrolyzer devices) can improve the electrolysis efficiency. Therefore, in the embodiment according to the present invention, a form of parallel operation of relatively small-capacity units (electrolyzer devices) is adopted, and an economic evaluation is carried out on the premise of such an electrolyzer device.

[0067] In step S505, the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 calculates the range of consumable power by electrolysis for each equipment capacity ratio over multiple stages by using the unit electrolyzer capacity H2CAP_Unit [kWh], the upper operation ratio Load_min [%], the lower operation ratio Load_max [%], and the required number of units obtained in step S504, which are set and registered by the MMI110, by using the following (Equation 9).

Equation

[0068] In step S506, the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 increases the variable (equipment capacity ratio) by the step size ΔRate [%] and sequentially performs a comparison determination with the upper limit of the equipment capacity ratio Upper_Rate [%]. As a result of the comparison determination in step S506, if the increased variable (equipment capacity ratio) is less than or equal to the upper limit of the equipment capacity ratio Upper_Rate (Yes in S506), the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 returns the processing flow to step S504 and sequentially performs the subsequent processing. On the other hand, as a result of the comparison determination in step S506, if the increased variable (equipment capacity ratio) exceeds the upper limit of the equipment capacity ratio Upper_Rate (No in S506), the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 considers that the analysis for each of all (multiple types of) equipment capacity ratios has been completed and ends the series of processing flows.

[0069] The equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123 causes the pretreatment unit database 141 to store the upper and lower limit data of the electrolysis consumable power for each equipment capacity ratio, which is the processing result of step S505. The processing result of step S505 is used by the power consumption analysis unit 124 of the pretreatment unit 120. FIG. 15 shows an example of a data table describing the required number of units and the upper and lower limit data of the electrolysis consumable power for each equipment capacity ratio.

[0070] 〔Processing procedure of the power consumption analysis unit 124 belonging to the pretreatment unit 120〕 Next, the processing procedure of the power consumption analysis unit 124 belonging to the pretreatment unit 120 will be described with reference to FIG. 6. FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing the processing procedure of the power consumption analysis unit 124 belonging to the pretreatment unit 120.

[0071] Using the power generation time series data (power generation actual data) set and registered by the MMI 110, and related parameters, etc., the power consumption analysis unit 124 analyzes the electrolysis power consumption and the non - electrolysis consumable power for each equipment capacity ratio in the case where the electrolysis system does not have a storage battery.

[0072] That is, in step S601 shown in FIG. 6, the power consumption analysis unit 124 acquires the power generation time series data (power generation performance data) set and registered by the MMI 110, the related parameters, and the upper and lower limit data of the power consumption that can be electrolyzed by water for each equipment capacity ratio, which is the analysis result of the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 123.

[0073] In step S602, the power consumption analysis unit 124 sequentially performs a comparison determination between, for example, the power generation performance data based on the power generation time series data and the upper and lower limit data of the power consumption that can be electrolyzed by water for the corresponding variable (equipment capacity ratio), for each variable (equipment capacity ratio) over multiple stages. As a result of the comparison determination in step S602, if the power generation performance data based on the power generation time series data belongs to the range of the upper and lower limits of the power consumption that can be electrolyzed by water, the power consumption analysis unit 124 advances the processing flow to the next step 603. As a result of the comparison determination in step S602, if the power generation performance data based on the power generation time series data is less than the lower limit of the power consumption that can be electrolyzed by water, the power consumption analysis unit 124 advances the processing flow to step 604. As a result of the comparison determination in step S602, if the power generation performance data based on the power generation time series data exceeds the upper limit of the power consumption that can be electrolyzed by water, the power consumption analysis unit 124 advances the processing flow to step 605.

[0074] In step S603 (when the power generation performance data based on the power generation time series data belongs to the range of the upper and lower limits of the power consumption that can be electrolyzed by water), the power consumption analysis unit 124 sets all of the power generation performance data as the power consumption for water electrolysis. At this time, the power that cannot be consumed by water electrolysis becomes 0.

[0075] In step S604 (when the power generation performance data based on the power generation time series data is less than the lower limit of the power consumption that can be electrolyzed by water), the power consumption analysis unit 124 sets the power consumption for water electrolysis to 0. This is because the operation of the water electrolysis system based on the power generation performance is not possible. At this time, the power that cannot be consumed by water electrolysis is equal to the power generation performance data.

[0076] In step S605 (when the generated power actual data based on the power generation time series exceeds the consumable power upper limit), the power consumption analysis unit 124 sets the electrolysis consumable power upper limit as the electrolysis power consumption. At this time, the power of the part exceeding the electrolysis consumable power upper limit [(generated power actual data) - (electrolysis power consumption)] becomes non-consumable electrolysis power.

[0077] In step S606, the power consumption analysis unit 124 determines whether the analysis regarding all variables (equipment capacity ratio) has been completed. Here, the analysis regarding all variables (equipment capacity ratio) means the analysis for each equipment capacity ratio over a plurality of stages (a plurality of preset stages among 0 to 100%). As a result of the determination in step S606, if the analysis regarding all variables (equipment capacity ratio) has not been completed (No in S606), the power consumption analysis unit 124 returns the process flow to step S602 and sequentially performs the subsequent processes. On the other hand, as a result of the determination in step S606, if the analysis regarding all variables (equipment capacity ratio) has been completed (Yes in S606), the power consumption analysis unit 124 ends the series of process flows.

[0078] The power consumption analysis unit 124 causes the pretreatment unit database 141 to store the electrolysis power consumption data and non-consumable electrolysis power data for each equipment capacity ratio in the case where the electrolysis system does not have a storage battery, which are the processing results of steps S603 to S605. The processing results of steps S603 to S605 are used by the storage capacity upper limit analysis unit 125 and the calculation unit 130 of the pretreatment unit 120. Fig. 16 shows an electrolysis power consumption data table for each equipment capacity ratio, and Fig. 17 shows a non-consumable electrolysis power data table for each equipment capacity ratio. In each data table shown in Fig. 16 and Fig. 17, the first column represents the date, the second column represents the time, and the third column represents the electrolysis power consumption and non-consumable electrolysis power for each equipment capacity ratio over a plurality of stages (for example, 10%, 20%, 30%, ··· 90%, 100%).

[0079] 〔Processing procedure of the storage capacity upper limit analysis unit 125 belonging to the pretreatment unit 120〕 Next, the processing procedure of the battery capacity upper limit analysis unit 125 belonging to the preprocessing unit 120 will be described with reference to FIG. 7. FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing the processing procedure of the battery capacity upper limit analysis unit 125 belonging to the preprocessing unit 120.

[0080] When storing the non-hydrolysis consumable power in the battery, the battery capacity upper limit analysis unit 125 analyzes the upper limit of the battery capacity for each equipment capacity ratio using the non-hydrolysis consumable power data for each equipment capacity ratio in multiple stages, which is the processing result of the power consumption analysis unit 124, and the related parameters set and registered by the MMI 110.

[0081] Specifically, in step S701 shown in FIG. 7, the battery capacity upper limit analysis unit 125 acquires the related parameters (specifically described later) set and registered by the MMI 110, and the non-hydrolysis consumable power data for each equipment capacity ratio in multiple stages, which is the processing result of the power consumption analysis unit 124 (see FIG. 17).

[0082] In step S702, the battery capacity upper limit analysis unit 125 extracts the maximum value from the non-hydrolysis consumable power data series at a certain variable (equipment capacity ratio), and sets the extracted value as the maximum battery capacity output [kW].

[0083] In step S703, the battery capacity upper limit analysis unit 125 calculates the total non-hydrolysis consumable power [kWh] for each date using the non-hydrolysis consumable power data acquired in step S701. For example, in the non-hydrolysis consumable power data table shown in FIG. 17, the non-hydrolysis consumable power values for each equipment capacity ratio are described at a predetermined time interval (30 minutes) in the third column. In this case, the total non-hydrolysis consumable power for each date may be calculated by multiplying the non-hydrolysis consumable power value [kW] by the time interval [h], and integrating the obtained multiplication values (power amount for each time interval) for each date.

[0084] In step S704, the power storage capacity upper limit analysis unit 125 extracts the maximum value Pmax from the total amount of ineligible power consumption for water electrolysis [kWh] for each date calculated in step S703, and uses the extracted maximum value Pmax and the related parameters set and registered by the MMI 110, namely the power storage discharge depth D [-], the end-of-life capacity retention rate EOL [-], the power storage system efficiency η [-], and the upper limit rate BESS_Rate [%], to calculate the power storage capacity upper limit value Smax [kWh] by, for example, the following (Equation 10).

Number

[0085] In step S705, the power storage capacity upper limit analysis unit 125 determines whether the analysis regarding all variables (equipment capacity ratio) has been completed. As a result of the determination in step S705, if the analysis regarding all variables (equipment capacity ratio) has not been completed (No in S705), the power storage capacity upper limit analysis unit 125 returns the processing flow to step S702 and sequentially performs the subsequent processing (steps S702 to S704). On the other hand, as a result of the determination in step S705, if the analysis regarding all variables (equipment capacity ratio) has been completed (Yes in S705), the power storage capacity upper limit analysis unit 125 advances the processing flow to the next step S706.

[0086] In step S706, the power storage capacity upper limit analysis unit 125 causes the power storage capacity upper limit data for each equipment capacity ratio, which is the processing result of step S704, to be stored in the preprocessing unit database 141 and ends the series of processing flows. The power storage capacity upper limit data for each equipment capacity ratio thus obtained (for example, refer to the power storage capacity upper limit data table for each equipment capacity ratio shown in FIG. 18) is used by the arithmetic unit 130.

[0087] 〔Processing Procedure of the Arithmetic Unit 130〕 Next, the processing procedure of the arithmetic unit 130 will be described with reference to FIG. 8. FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing the processing procedure of the arithmetic unit 130 provided in the capacity planning support device 10. Based on the processing results in the preprocessing unit 120, the related parameters set and registered by the MMI 110, and the power generation time series data, the calculation unit 130 calculates the recommended capacity that follows the economic perspective by sequentially executing the following processes.

[0088] In step S801 shown in FIG. 8, the problem generation unit 131 belonging to the calculation unit 130 generates an objective function (minimization of hydrogen production cost) and constraint expressions in the optimization calculation based on the hydrogen electrolysis power consumption data, hydrogen electrolysis non-power consumption data, storage capacity upper limit data for each equipment capacity ratio, which are the processing results of the preprocessing unit 120, and the related parameters set and registered by the MMI 110.

[0089] In step S802, the recommended capacity calculation unit 132 belonging to the calculation unit 130 calculates the storage capacity that achieves the objective function of minimizing the hydrogen production cost and satisfies the conditions according to the constraint expressions based on the objective function and constraint expressions generated by the problem generation unit 131. Note that the above calculation process related to the recommended capacity calculation unit 132 is performed for each equipment capacity ratio in multiple stages.

[0090] In step S803, the calculation unit 130 determines whether the analysis of all variables (equipment capacity ratio) has been completed. As a result of the determination in step S803, if the analysis of all variables (equipment capacity ratio) has not been completed (No in S803), the calculation unit 130 returns the processing flow to step S801 and sequentially performs the subsequent processing (steps S801 to S802). On the other hand, as a result of the determination in step S803, if the analysis of all variables (equipment capacity ratio) has been completed (Yes in S803), the calculation unit 130 advances the processing flow to the next step S804.

[0091] In step S804, the calculation unit 130 causes the calculation unit database 142 to store the storage capacity data for each equipment capacity ratio that achieves the objective function of minimizing the hydrogen production cost and satisfies the conditions according to the constraint expressions, which is the processing result of step S802.

[0092] In step S805, the arithmetic unit 130 achieves an objective function that minimizes the hydrogen production cost for each equipment capacity ratio over multiple stages, and extracts a combination of an equipment capacity ratio and a power storage capacity that satisfies the conditions according to a predetermined constraint equation from among the power storage capacities that satisfy the conditions. Among them, the combination of the equipment capacity ratio and the power storage capacity with the most excellent objective function (the hydrogen production cost is minimized) is extracted.

[0093] In step S806, the arithmetic unit 130 obtains a system configuration including a recommended water electrolysis capacity and a recommended power storage capacity that minimize the hydrogen production cost, and an economic index corresponding to the system configuration, based on the combination of the equipment capacity ratio and the power storage capacity extracted in step S805. The information including the recommended capacity that minimizes the hydrogen production cost and the economic index thus obtained is presented to the image display unit 113 provided in the MMI110. After that, the arithmetic unit 130 ends the series of processing flows.

[0094] The objective function for minimizing the hydrogen production cost can be expressed using the following (Equation 11).

Equation

[0095] The "operation and maintenance cost of equipment n in the i-th year" in the above (Equation 11) is a function of the power storage capacity BESScap and is calculated by multiplying the power storage capacity BESScap by the unit price of the power storage capacity in the i-th year, as shown in the following (Equation 12), for example, in the case of a battery energy storage system. Here, the power storage capacity BESScap is a variable. The recommended capacity calculation unit 132 uses a mathematical optimization calculation method to calculate the power storage capacity BESScap that achieves the minimization of the hydrogen production cost, which is the objective function, and satisfies the conditions according to the constraint equation, based on the objective function and the constraint equation.

Equation

[0096] For equipment other than the battery equipment, such as water electrolysis equipment, liquefaction equipment, storage equipment, etc., the equipment costs of each equipment may be obtained according to the case of the battery equipment case. The unit price of each equipment capacity thus obtained is registered as a related parameter via MMI110.

[0097] Regarding the "equipment cost of equipment n in the i-th year" in the above (Formula 11), the concept of the operation and maintenance ratio is introduced, and it is calculated as the "operation and maintenance cost of the energy storage equipment in the i-th year" by multiplying the energy storage equipment cost in the i-th year calculated by the above (Formula 12) by the operation and maintenance ratio (see the following (Formula 13)).

Number

[0098] In addition, regarding the "electricity charge in the i-th year" in the above (Formula 11), in the embodiment of the present invention, from the perspective of economic evaluation for hydrogen production as the main purpose of power consumption, surplus power (finally, power that cannot be consumed by water electrolysis) is assumed to be unused without connecting to the grid, and the "electricity charge in the i-th year" is calculated taking into account the electricity charge for the unused part.

[0099] Specifically, for example, in the case of the renewable energy power generation time series data [kW] shown in FIG. 9, the electricity charge for hydrogen production is calculated by multiplying the power generation power value at each time by the time interval (30 minutes) to calculate the total power generation amount [kWh], and then multiplying the calculated total power generation amount [kWh] by the electricity unit price [yen / kWh] in the i-th year (see the following (Formula 14)).

[0100]

Number

[0101] In addition, regarding the "hydrogen production amount in the i-th year" in the above (Formula 11), it is calculated based on the power consumption for hydrogen production in the i-th year and the water electrolysis efficiency in the i-th year (see the following (Formula 15)).

Number

[0102] The "electrolysis efficiency in the i-th year" in the above (Equation 15) may be obtained based on the processing result of the electrolysis degradation estimation unit 121. Further, the "power consumption for hydrogen production in the i-th year" in the above (Equation 15) is calculated by adding the available discharge power of the storage battery to the total electrolysis power consumption in the corresponding year, which is the processing result of the power consumption analysis unit 124 (see the following (Equation 16)). Also, the "total electrolysis power consumption on the d-th day" in (Equation 16) may be obtained based on the processing result of the power consumption analysis unit 124. For example, as shown in FIG. 16, the electrolysis power consumption value for each time range is multiplied by the time interval (30 minutes), and the multiplied values are integrated for each date.

[0103]

Number

[0104] Regarding the available charge-discharge power of the storage battery in the i-th year in the above (Equation 16), it may be calculated using the following (Equation 17A) and (Equation 17B) based on the related parameters registered via the MMI110 (charge-discharge depth D of the storage battery, non-electrolysis power consumption which is the processing result of the power consumption analysis unit 124, capacity maintenance rate Qi which is the processing result of the storage degradation estimation unit 122, and upper limit of the storage capacity which is the processing result of the storage capacity upper limit analysis unit 125). Here, Punused(d) in (Equation 17A) and (Equation 17B) is the total non-electrolysis power consumption on the d-th day. The total non-electrolysis power consumption Punused(d) on the d-th day may be obtained based on the processing result of the power consumption analysis unit 124. For example, as shown in FIG. 17, the non-electrolysis power consumption value for each time range is multiplied by the time interval (30 minutes), and the multiplied values are integrated for each date. Define the charge-discharge cycle of the storage battery as 1 cycle / day, and calculate the available charge-discharge power of the storage battery per day BESSfor H2i (d).

[0105]

Number

[0106] In (Equation 17A) and (Equation 17B), the energy storage capacity BESScap is subject to constraints related to the upper and lower limits for each equipment capacity ratio over multiple stages, as shown in (Equation 18).

Number

[0107] In an embodiment of the present invention, as constraints when calculating the recommended capacity, the average water electrolysis operation rate and the average unused power rate related to the life cycle may be set respectively.

[0108] The following (Equation 19) is a constraint equation for the water electrolysis operation rate. The water electrolysis operation rate can be expressed as the ratio of the amount of power consumed by water electrolysis to the total power generation capacity when the planned water electrolysis equipment is continuously used for one year (24 hours × 365 days).

Number

[0109] The average water electrolysis operation rate related to the life cycle can be obtained by averaging the water electrolysis operation rate [%] for each year, using the equipment capacity ratio, the total renewable energy generation capacity, and the power consumption for hydrogen production in the i-th year as related parameters, as shown in (Equation 19). The average water electrolysis operation rate related to the life cycle is subject to constraints so as to converge within the range of the upper and lower limits related to the lower limit Ex_H2L (a numerical value such as 10%) and the upper limit Ex_H2H (a numerical value such as 50%) of the water electrolysis operation rate, as shown in (Equation 19). Each of the lower limit Ex_H2L and the upper limit Ex_H2H of the water electrolysis operation rate is registered via MMI110 as a related parameter.

[0110] The following (Equation 20) is a constraint equation for the unused power rate. The unused power rate can be expressed as the ratio of the amount of power that cannot be consumed by water electrolysis to the total power generation capacity. The amount of power that cannot be consumed by water electrolysis can be obtained by subtracting the power consumption for hydrogen production from the total power generation capacity.

Number

[0111] The average unused power rate related to the life cycle can be obtained by averaging the unused power rates [%] for each year, using the total renewable power generation capacity and the power consumption for hydrogen production in the i-th year as relevant parameters, as shown in (Equation 20). The average unused power rate related to the life cycle is constrained to converge within a range with a lower limit of zero and an upper limit of the unused power rate upper limit Ex_unusedP_R, as shown in (Equation 20). Note that the unused power rate upper limit Ex_unusedP_R is a relevant parameter set and registered by the MMI110.

[0112] Also, as an example of the economic index, the NPV (Net Present Value) is calculated using the following (Equation 21).

Number

[0113] Regarding the expected cash flow i years later in the above (Equation 21), for the sake of simplifying the calculation, it is obtained by subtracting the hydrogen production cost from the hydrogen sales revenue for each i-th year. Note that for the economic index, other indices than the above may be adopted.

[0114] Information including the storage capacity, hydrogen production cost, NPV (Net Present Value), water electrolysis operation rate, unused power rate, and renewable energy output control rate for each equipment capacity, which is the processing result of the arithmetic unit 130 provided in the capacity planning support device 10, is stored in the arithmetic unit database 142 (see FIG. 19).

[0115] Also, the information including the recommended capacity at which the hydrogen production cost is minimized and the economic index, which is stored in the arithmetic unit database 142, is presented to the image display unit 113 provided in the MMI110 (see FIG. 20).

[0116] According to the capacity determination support device 10 according to an embodiment of the present invention, for a user considering the introduction of a water electrolysis system, through the presentation of a system configuration including a recommended capacity for the user and information on economic indicators related to the system configuration, it is possible to support the user's decision on whether to introduce the system.

[0117] 〔Capacity Determination Support Method According to Embodiment of the Present Invention〕 Next, a capacity determination support method according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described. The capacity determination support method according to an embodiment of the present invention is a capacity determination support method used when supporting the determination of the capacity of a water electrolysis system including a water electrolysis device and a storage battery, and includes a step of receiving registration of information including power generation time series data in the planned introduction area of the water electrolysis system and predetermined parameters including the performance of each of the water electrolysis device and the storage battery; a preprocessing step of generating water electrolysis power consumption data, water electrolysis non-consumable power data, and storage capacity upper limit data for each of a plurality of equipment capacity ratios that are the ratio of the water electrolysis capacity to the total power generation capacity, based on the registered information; a problem generation step of generating a mathematical formula related to a predetermined problem based on the processing result of the preprocessing step and the registered predetermined parameters; and a recommended capacity calculation step of calculating a recommended capacity using the mathematical formula generated in the problem generation step. The pretreatment process further includes a water electrolysis degradation estimation step of estimating the change over time in water electrolysis efficiency using the performance of the water electrolysis device among the registered predetermined parameters, a power storage degradation estimation step of estimating the change over time in the power storage capacity maintenance rate using the performance of the storage battery among the registered predetermined parameters, a facility capacity ratio analysis step of analyzing the upper and lower limits of the consumable power by water electrolysis for each facility capacity ratio using the registered power generation time series data and the performance of the water electrolysis device, a power consumption analysis step of analyzing the water electrolysis power consumption and the non-consumable power by water electrolysis for each facility capacity ratio based on the registered power generation time series data and the upper and lower limits of the consumable power by water electrolysis for each facility capacity ratio, which is the analysis result of the facility capacity ratio analysis step, and a power storage capacity upper limit analysis step of analyzing the upper limit of the power storage capacity for each facility capacity ratio using the non-consumable power by water electrolysis for each facility capacity ratio, which is the processing result of the power consumption analysis step, and the registered predetermined parameters. In the problem generation step, based on the water electrolysis power consumption and the non-consumable power by water electrolysis for each facility capacity ratio, which is the analysis result of the power consumption analysis step, and the upper limit of the power storage capacity for each facility capacity ratio, which is the analysis result of the power storage capacity upper limit analysis step, an objective function and constraint expressions are generated for each facility capacity ratio with the power storage capacity as a variable. In the recommended capacity calculation step, using the method of mathematical optimization calculation, the power storage capacity that achieves the objective function and satisfies the conditions according to the constraint expressions is calculated for each facility capacity ratio, and from the set of combinations of the power storage capacities for each facility capacity ratio over the calculated multiple stages, the combination of the facility capacity ratio and the power storage capacity with the most excellent objective function is extracted, and based on the extracted combination, the recommended capacity is calculated.

[0118] According to the capacity determination support method according to the embodiment of the present invention, for a user considering the introduction of a water electrolysis system, it is possible to support the user's decision on whether to introduce the system by presenting information on the system configuration including the recommended capacity for the user and the economic index related to the system configuration.

[0119] 〔Program for Capacity Determination Support According to Embodiment of the Present Invention〕 Next, a program for assisting in capacity determination according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described. The program for assisting in capacity determination according to an embodiment of the present invention is used when assisting in the determination of the capacity of a water electrolysis system including a water electrolysis device and a storage battery, and causes a computer to receive registration of information including power generation time series data in the planned introduction area of the water electrolysis system and predetermined parameters including the performance of each of the water electrolysis device and the storage battery; based on the registered information, generate electrolysis power consumption data, electrolysis non-consumable power data, and storage capacity upper limit data for each of a plurality of equipment capacity ratios that are ratios of the water electrolysis capacity to the total power generation capacity in a preprocessing procedure; generate a mathematical formula related to a predetermined problem based on the processing result of the preprocessing step and the registered predetermined parameters in a problem generation procedure; and is a program that executes a recommended capacity calculation procedure for calculating a recommended capacity using the mathematical formula generated in the problem generation step. The preprocessing procedure includes a water electrolysis degradation estimation procedure for estimating the change over time of the water electrolysis efficiency using the performance of the water electrolysis device among the registered predetermined parameters; a storage degradation estimation procedure for estimating the change over time of the storage capacity maintenance rate using the performance of the storage battery among the registered predetermined parameters; a facility capacity ratio analysis procedure for analyzing the upper and lower limits of the consumable power by water electrolysis for each of the facility capacity ratios using the registered power generation time series data and the performance of the water electrolysis device; a power consumption analysis procedure for analyzing the water electrolysis power consumption and the non-consumable power by water electrolysis for each of the facility capacity ratios based on the registered power generation time series data and the upper and lower limits of the consumable power by water electrolysis for each of the facility capacity ratios that are the analysis results of the facility capacity ratio analysis procedure; and further includes a storage capacity upper limit analysis procedure for analyzing the storage capacity upper limit for each of the facility capacity ratios using the non-consumable power by water electrolysis for each of the facility capacity ratios that is the processing result of the power consumption analysis procedure and the registered predetermined parameters. In the problem generation procedure, based on the electrolysis power consumption and the non - consumable electrolysis power for each equipment capacity ratio, which are the analysis results of the power consumption analysis procedure, and the upper limit of the storage capacity for each equipment capacity ratio, which is the analysis result of the upper limit analysis procedure of the storage capacity, for each equipment capacity ratio, an objective function and constraint expressions are generated with the storage capacity as a variable. In the recommended capacity calculation procedure, using a mathematical optimization calculation method, a storage capacity that achieves the objective function and satisfies the conditions of the constraint expressions is calculated for each equipment capacity ratio. From the set of combinations of the storage capacities for each equipment capacity ratio over the calculated multiple stages, a combination of the equipment capacity ratio and the storage capacity with the most excellent objective function is extracted, and based on the extracted combination, the recommended capacity is calculated.

[0120] According to the capacity determination support program according to the embodiment of the present invention, for a user considering the introduction of an electrolysis system, through presenting a system configuration including the recommended capacity for the user and information on economic index related to the system configuration, it is possible to support the user's decision - making regarding whether to introduce the system.

[0121] 〔Other Embodiments〕 The embodiments described above show examples of the implementation of the present invention. Therefore, the technical scope of the present invention should not be limitedly interpreted by these. This is because the present invention can be implemented in various forms without departing from its gist or its main features.

[0122] For example, in the description of the capacity determination support device 10 according to the embodiment of the present invention, “minimization of hydrogen production cost” is exemplified as the objective function, but the present invention is not limited to this example. Economic indexes such as “maximization of NPV (Net Present Value)” and “maximization of IRR (Internal Rate of Return)” may be appropriately adopted as the objective function.

[0123] Also, for example, in the schematic configuration diagram of the capacity determination support device 10 according to the embodiment of the present invention shown in FIG. 1, the information flow lines show those considered necessary for explanation, and do not necessarily show all the information flow lines required for implementation. In reality, it may be considered that almost all the components are interconnected.

[0124] In addition, in the description of the embodiment of the present invention, the processing steps for describing time-series processing include not only the processing that is performed in time series along a predetermined order, but also the processing that is executed in parallel or individually (for example, parallel processing or object-based processing) even if it is not necessarily processed in time series.

[0125] Finally, the present invention may be embodied in a form in which a program for realizing the functions according to the above-described embodiment is supplied to a system or device via a network or a storage medium, and a processor provided in a computer of the system or device reads and executes the program. Further, the present invention may be embodied using a hardware circuit for realizing the above functions. Information including the program for realizing the above functions can be held in a recording device such as a memory or a hard disk, or a recording medium such as a memory card or an optical disk.

Description of Reference Numerals

[0126] 10 Capacity determination support device 110 MMI 113 Image display unit 120 Preprocessing unit 121 Water electrolysis degradation estimation unit 122 Power storage degradation estimation unit 123 Equipment capacity ratio analysis unit 124 Power consumption analysis unit 125 Power storage capacity upper limit analysis unit 130 Arithmetic unit 131 Problem generation unit 132 Recommended capacity calculation unit 140 Storage unit 141 Preprocessing unit database 142 Arithmetic unit database

Claims

1. A capacity determination support device for supporting the determination of the capacity of a water electrolysis system, comprising: an MMI that receives registration of power generation time series data and information including predetermined parameters in a planned introduction area of the water electrolysis system; a preprocessing unit that generates electrolytic power consumption data and electrolytic non-consumable power data for each of a plurality of equipment capacity ratios, which are ratios of the electrolysis capacity to the total power generation capacity, based on the registered information; a problem generation unit that generates a mathematical formula related to a predetermined problem based on the processing result of the preprocessing unit and the registered predetermined parameters; a recommended capacity calculation unit that calculates a recommended capacity using the mathematical formula generated by the problem generation unit; A capacity determination support device characterized by being configured to include the above.

2. The capacity determination support device according to claim 1, wherein the water electrolysis system includes a water electrolysis device and a storage battery, the preprocessing unit further generates upper limit data of the storage capacity for each of the equipment capacity ratios based on the registered information, and the recommended capacity calculation unit calculates a recommended electrolysis capacity and a recommended storage capacity respectively using the mathematical formula generated by the problem generation unit. A capacity determination support device characterized by the above.

3. The capacity determination support device according to claim 2, wherein the MMI receives registration of the performance of each of the water electrolysis device and the storage battery as the predetermined parameter. A capacity determination support device characterized by the above.

4. The capacity determination support device according to claim 3, wherein the preprocessing unit includes a water electrolysis degradation estimation unit that estimates the change over time of the water electrolysis efficiency using the performance of the water electrolysis device among the registered predetermined parameters. A capacity determination support device characterized by the above.

5. The capacity determination support device according to claim 4, wherein the preprocessing unit further includes a storage degradation estimation unit that estimates the change over time of the storage capacity maintenance rate using the performance of the storage battery among the registered predetermined parameters. A capacity determination support device characterized by the above.

6. The capacity determination support device according to claim 5, wherein the preprocessing unit includes an equipment capacity ratio analysis unit that analyzes the upper and lower limits of the available power by water electrolysis for each of the equipment capacity ratios using the registered power generation time series data and the performance of the water electrolysis device. Based on the registered power generation time series data and the upper and lower limits of the power consumable by water electrolysis for each equipment capacity ratio, which are the analysis results of the equipment capacity ratio analysis unit, a power consumption analysis unit that analyzes the power consumed by water electrolysis and the power not consumable by water electrolysis for each equipment capacity ratio further comprising a capacity planning support device characterized by this.

7. A capacity planning support device according to claim 6, wherein the preprocessing unit further comprises a storage capacity upper limit analysis unit that analyzes the upper limit of the storage capacity for each equipment capacity ratio using the power not consumable by water electrolysis for each equipment capacity ratio, which is the processing result of the power consumption analysis unit, and the registered predetermined parameters a capacity planning support device characterized by this.

8. A capacity planning support device according to claim 7, wherein the problem generation unit generates an objective function and constraint expressions for each equipment capacity ratio with the storage capacity as a variable based on the power consumed by water electrolysis and the power not consumable by water electrolysis for each equipment capacity ratio, which are the analysis results of the power consumption analysis unit, and the upper limit of the storage capacity for each equipment capacity ratio, which is the analysis result of the storage capacity upper limit analysis unit a capacity planning support device characterized by this.

9. A capacity planning support device according to claim 8, wherein the recommended capacity calculation unit calculates, for each equipment capacity ratio, a storage capacity that achieves the objective function and satisfies the conditions according to the constraint expressions using a mathematical optimization calculation method, and calculates the recommended capacity based on the calculated storage capacities for each equipment capacity ratio over a plurality of stages a capacity planning support device characterized by this.

10. A capacity planning support device according to claim 9, wherein the recommended capacity calculation unit extracts a combination of the equipment capacity ratio and the storage capacity with the most excellent objective function from among the combination sets of the storage capacities for each equipment capacity ratio over the calculated plurality of stages, and calculates the recommended capacity based on the extracted combination a capacity planning support device characterized by this.

11. A capacity planning support device according to claim 9 or 10, wherein the recommended capacity calculation unit presents information regarding the system configuration including the calculated recommended capacity and the economic index corresponding to the system configuration a capacity planning support device characterized by this.

12. A capacity planning support method used when supporting the determination of the capacity of a water electrolysis system including a water electrolysis device and a storage battery, A step of receiving registration of information including power generation time series data in the planned introduction area of the water electrolysis system and predetermined parameters including the performance of each of the water electrolysis device and the storage battery; A preprocessing step of generating water electrolysis power consumption data, water electrolysis non-consumable power data, and storage capacity upper limit data for each of a plurality of equipment capacity ratios which are ratios of the water electrolysis capacity to the total power generation capacity, based on the registered information; A problem generation step of generating a mathematical formula related to a predetermined problem based on the processing result of the preprocessing step and the registered predetermined parameters; A recommended capacity calculation step of calculating a recommended capacity using the mathematical formula generated in the problem generation step, and having, The preprocessing step includes: A water electrolysis degradation estimation step of estimating the change over time of the water electrolysis efficiency using the performance of the water electrolysis device among the registered predetermined parameters; A storage degradation estimation step of estimating the change over time of the storage capacity maintenance rate using the performance of the storage battery among the registered predetermined parameters; A facility capacity ratio analysis step of analyzing the upper and lower limits of the available power by water electrolysis for each of the facility capacity ratios using the registered power generation time series data and the performance of the water electrolysis device; A power consumption analysis step of analyzing the water electrolysis power consumption and water electrolysis non-consumable power for each of the facility capacity ratios based on the registered power generation time series data and the upper and lower limits of the available power by water electrolysis for each of the facility capacity ratios which are the analysis results of the facility capacity ratio analysis step; Further having a storage capacity upper limit analysis step of analyzing the storage capacity upper limit for each of the facility capacity ratios using the water electrolysis non-consumable power for each of the facility capacity ratios which is the processing result of the power consumption analysis step and the registered predetermined parameters; In the problem generation step, based on the water electrolysis power consumption and water electrolysis non-consumable power for each of the facility capacity ratios which are the analysis results of the power consumption analysis step, and the storage capacity upper limit for each of the facility capacity ratios which is the analysis result of the storage capacity upper limit analysis step, an objective function and constraint expressions are generated for each of the facility capacity ratios with the storage capacity as a variable; In the recommended capacity calculation step, using a method of mathematical optimization calculation, a storage capacity that achieves the objective function and satisfies the conditions according to the constraint expressions is calculated for each of the facility capacity ratios, and from the set of combinations of the storage capacities for each of the facility capacity ratios in the calculated plurality of stages, a combination of the facility capacity ratio and the storage capacity with the most excellent objective function is extracted, and the recommended capacity is calculated based on the extracted combination A method for supporting capacity determination, characterized by the following.

13. When used to support the determination of the capacity of a water electrolysis system including a water electrolysis device and a storage battery, the computer is caused to receive registration of information including power generation time series data in the planned introduction area of the water electrolysis system and predetermined parameters including the performance of each of the water electrolysis device and the storage battery; a preprocessing procedure for generating electrolysis power consumption data, electrolysis non-consumable power data, and storage capacity upper limit data for each equipment capacity ratio in multiple stages, which is the ratio of the water electrolysis capacity to the total power generation capacity, based on the registered information; a problem generation procedure for generating a mathematical formula related to a predetermined problem based on the processing result of the preprocessing step and the registered predetermined parameters; a program for causing the computer to execute a recommended capacity calculation procedure for calculating a recommended capacity using the mathematical formula generated in the problem generation step, wherein the preprocessing procedure includes a water electrolysis degradation estimation procedure for estimating the change over time of the water electrolysis efficiency using the performance of the water electrolysis device among the registered predetermined parameters; a storage degradation estimation procedure for estimating the change over time of the storage capacity maintenance rate using the performance of the storage battery among the registered predetermined parameters; a facility capacity ratio analysis procedure for analyzing the upper and lower limits of the available power for water electrolysis for each facility capacity ratio using the registered power generation time series data and the performance of the water electrolysis device; a power consumption analysis procedure for analyzing the water electrolysis power consumption and the water electrolysis non-consumable power for each facility capacity ratio based on the registered power generation time series data and the upper and lower limits of the available power for water electrolysis for each facility capacity ratio, which is the analysis result of the facility capacity ratio analysis procedure; further includes a storage capacity upper limit analysis procedure for analyzing the storage capacity upper limit for each facility capacity ratio using the water electrolysis non-consumable power for each facility capacity ratio, which is the processing result of the power consumption analysis procedure, and the registered predetermined parameters; in the problem generation procedure, based on the water electrolysis power consumption and the water electrolysis non-consumable power for each facility capacity ratio, which is the analysis result of the power consumption analysis procedure, and the storage capacity upper limit for each facility capacity ratio, which is the analysis result of the storage capacity upper limit analysis procedure, an objective function and constraint equations are generated for each facility capacity ratio with the storage capacity as a variable. In the recommended capacity calculation procedure, a power storage capacity that achieves the objective function and satisfies the conditions according to the constraint expressions is calculated for each of the equipment capacity ratios using a mathematical optimization calculation method. From among the combination sets of the power storage capacities for each of the equipment capacity ratios over the plurality of calculated stages, a combination of the equipment capacity ratio and the power storage capacity with the most excellent objective function is extracted, and based on the extracted combination, the recommended capacity is calculated. A program therefor.

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