Electricity trading support device, electricity trading support system, electricity trading support method, and program

Abstract

To achieve, in electricity trading, both maximizing profits with excellent accuracy and reducing risks.SOLUTION: An electricity trading support device comprises: a prediction processing unit for generating a predicted price distribution, which is a probability distribution of predicted values of electricity market prices in an electricity market where electricity charged and discharged by an electricity storage device is traded; and a planning processing unit for planning an electricity bidding plan and a charging and discharging plan for the electricity storage device based on the predicted price distribution generated by the prediction processing unit and device information related to the electricity storage device to be managed.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a power trading support device, a power trading support system, a power trading support method, and a program.

Background Art

[0002] In recent years, in the power market where the power charged and discharged by a power storage device is traded, there is a known technique for attempting to maximize the profit from power trading (see, for example, Patent Document 1).

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0003]

Patent Document 1

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0004] However, in the conventional technology as described above, since the fluctuation range of the market price is not considered, it is insufficient to maximize the profit, and a technology that can achieve both maximization of profit and risk reduction is desired.

[0005] The present disclosure has been made to solve the above problems, and an object thereof is to provide a power trading support device, a power trading support system, a power trading support method, and a program that can accurately achieve both maximization of profit and risk reduction in power trading.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0006] To solve the above problems, one aspect of the present disclosure is a power trading support device including a prediction processing unit that generates a predicted price distribution which is a probability distribution of predicted values of power market prices in a power market where power charged and discharged by a power storage device is traded, and a planning processing unit that formulates a power bidding plan and a charge / discharge plan of the power storage device based on the predicted price distribution generated by the prediction processing unit and device information regarding the power storage device to be managed.

[0007] Also, one aspect of the present disclosure is a power trading support system including the power trading support device described above and the power storage device.

[0008] Also, one aspect of the present disclosure is a power trading support method in which a prediction processing unit generates a predicted price distribution which is a probability distribution of predicted values of power market prices in a power market where power charged and discharged by a power storage device is traded, and a planning processing unit formulates a power bidding plan and a charge / discharge plan of the power storage device based on the predicted price distribution generated by the prediction processing unit and device information regarding the power storage device to be managed.

[0009] Also, one aspect of the present disclosure is a program for causing a computer to execute a prediction processing step of generating a predicted price distribution which is a probability distribution of predicted values of power market prices in a power market where power charged and discharged by a power storage device is traded, and a planning processing step of formulating a power bidding plan and a charge / discharge plan of the power storage device based on the predicted price distribution generated by the prediction processing step and device information regarding the power storage device to be managed.

Advantages of the Invention

[0010] According to the present disclosure, in power trading, it is possible to accurately achieve both maximization of profit and risk reduction.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0011]

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure 7

Figure 8

Figure 9

Figure 10

Embodiments for Carrying Out the Invention

[0012] Hereinafter, a power trading support device, a power trading support system, a power trading support method, and a program according to an embodiment of the present disclosure will be described with reference to the drawings. FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram showing an example of the power trading support system 1 according to this embodiment.

[0013] As shown in FIG. 1, the power trading support system 1 includes a power trading support device 10, a storage battery 20, and a user terminal 30. Note that the power trading support device 10 and the user terminal 30 can be connected via the network NW1. Also, the power trading support device 10 can be connected to the external server 2 via the network NW1.

[0014] The storage battery 20 is, for example, a storage battery for system connection owned by a consumer, and is an example of a power storage device.

[0015] The external server 2 is a server device that provides various external services. Here, it is represented as one server device. The various services include, for example, weather information (weather prediction information and actual performance information), trading services in the wholesale power market (spot market and forward market) by the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX), acceptance of plans by the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators (OCCTO: cross-regional organization), trading services in the capacity market, and provision of trading services in the demand-supply adjustment market by the Transmission and Distribution Grid Council.

[0016] The power trading support device 10 is, for example, a server device that supports and manages power trading, and includes a NW (network) communication unit 11, a device storage unit 12, and a device control unit 13.

[0017] The NW communication unit 11 is a functional unit realized by a communication device such as a network adapter, for example. The NW communication unit 11 connects to the network NW1 and performs communication between the power trading support device 10 and the external server 2 or the user terminal 30.

[0018] The device storage unit 12 stores various information used by the power trading support device 10. The device storage unit 12 includes a device information storage unit 121, a weather information storage unit 122, a prediction information storage unit 123, a planned value storage unit 124, and an actual value storage unit 125.

[0019] The device storage unit 12 stores device information, which is information about the storage battery 20 (power storage device) managed by the power trading support device 10. Here, with reference to FIG. 2, a data example of the device storage unit 12 will be described.

[0020] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing a data example of the device information storage unit 121 in the present embodiment. As shown in FIG. 2, the device information storage unit 121 stores by associating a battery ID, a maximum charge capacity, a maximum output power, a maximum charge amount, a current charge capacity (SOC: State Of Charge), and a cycle limit number.

[0021] Here, the battery ID is identification information (power storage device identification information) for identifying the battery 20 (power storage device), and is assigned to each battery 20 managed by the power trading support system 1. Further, the maximum charge capacity is the maximum capacity that the battery 20 can be charged, the maximum output power is the maximum amount of electric power that the battery 20 can output. Also, the maximum charge amount is the maximum amount of electric power that the battery 20 can input, and the current charge capacity (SOC) indicates the amount of electric power currently charged in the battery 20. Further, the cycle limit number is a preset number of charge and discharge limits in a certain period (for example, one week, etc.).

[0022] For example, in the example shown in FIG. 2, the battery 20 with the battery ID "B0001" indicates that the maximum charge capacity is "○○ KWh", the maximum output power is "○ KW", the current charge capacity is "△△ KWh", and the cycle limit number is "10 times / week". Note that the device information may include information indicating the response performance (responsiveness) of the battery 20, charge and discharge efficiency, battery deterioration state, etc.

[0023] Returning to the description of FIG. 1, the weather information storage unit 122 stores the weather information acquired from the external server 2. Here, the weather information includes actual values and predicted values such as weather, temperature, humidity, etc. The weather information storage unit 122 stores, for example, by associating date and time information with the weather information.

[0024] The prediction information storage unit 123 stores various predicted values used by the power trading support device 10. The predicted values include, for example, a power demand predicted value, a solar power generation prediction (PV prediction), a spot price predicted value, and a predicted price in the adjustment market, etc. Note that the various predicted values are acquired from the external server 2 or generated by a prediction processing unit 131 described later.

[0025] In addition, the prediction information storage unit 123 stores a predicted price distribution that is a probability distribution of predicted values of the electricity market price in the electricity market. The electricity market includes, for example, the wholesale electricity market, the supply-demand adjustment market, and the capacity market.

[0026] The planned value storage unit 124 stores planned values formulated by the formulation processing unit 132 described later, which are operation plans provided to the electricity market (wholesale electricity market, supply-demand adjustment market, capacity market, etc.). The operation plan includes a bidding plan and a charge / discharge plan for the storage battery 20.

[0027] The actual value storage unit 125 stores various actual values used by the power trading support device 10. The actual values include, for example, the transaction results in the forward market, the supply-demand adjustment market, and the spot market, the spot actual price, the contracted quantity in the power supply / demand volume·BL (base load) market, and the like.

[0028] The device control unit 13 is a functional unit realized by, for example, causing a processor including a CPU (Central Processing Unit) to execute a program stored in the device storage unit 12. The device control unit 13 executes various processes of the power trading support device 10. The device control unit 13 includes a prediction processing unit 131, a formulation processing unit 132, a monitoring control unit 133, and a display control unit 134.

[0029] The prediction processing unit 131 generates a predicted price distribution that is a probability distribution of predicted values of the electricity market price predicted based on weather information, which is the electricity market price in the electricity market (wholesale electricity market, supply-demand adjustment market, capacity market, etc.) where the electricity charged and discharged by the storage battery 20 is traded. The prediction processing unit 131 acquires weather information from the external server 2 and stores the acquired weather information in the weather information storage unit 122. In addition, the prediction processing unit 131 may predict the predicted value of the electricity market price based on the weather information and the actual values of the past electricity market prices, or may acquire the predicted value of the electricity market price from the external server 2. Further, the predicted value of the electricity market price may be predicted based on, in addition to the weather information, information on regular inspections of other power sources, power source failures, and grid operations. The prediction processing unit 131 stores the predicted value of the electricity market price in the prediction information storage unit 123.

[0030] Further, for example, the prediction processing unit 131 generates a predicted price distribution as a normal distribution based on the average predicted value and the standard deviation value according to the predicted value of the electricity market price. Here, with reference to FIG. 3, an example of the probability distribution of the predicted value of the electricity market price will be described.

[0031] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of the probability distribution of the predicted value of the electricity market price in the present embodiment. In FIG. 3, the horizontal axis represents the predicted value of the market price, and the vertical axis represents the probability of the predicted value. Also, the waveform W1 shows the probability distribution of the predicted value.

[0032] The prediction processing unit 131 generates a normal distribution as shown by the waveform W1 based on the average predicted value and the standard deviation value σ. The prediction processing unit 131 generates, for example, predicted price distributions corresponding to the market prices of the wholesale electricity market, the supply-demand adjustment market, and the capacity market, respectively. The prediction processing unit 131 stores the generated predicted price distributions in the prediction information storage unit 123. Note that the standard deviation value σ is a value calculated from data for an arbitrary past period used for prediction.

[0033] Based on the predicted price distribution generated by the prediction processing unit 131 and the device information regarding the storage battery 20 to be managed, the planning processing unit 132 formulates a power bidding plan and a charge / discharge plan for the storage battery 20. The planning processing unit 132 is a planning policy (strategy policy) that prioritizes at least one of the power procurement price, the power selling price, the trading risk, and the expected profit, and formulates a bidding plan and a charge / discharge plan based on the specified planning policy. For example, when prioritizing the expected profit, the planning processing unit 132 formulates a bidding plan and a charge / discharge plan so that the expected profit is maximized even if there is a trading risk according to the predicted price distribution. Also, the planning processing unit 132 may formulate a bidding plan and a charge / discharge plan based on a planning policy (strategy policy) that prioritizes a plurality of items such as the trading risk and the expected profit.

[0034] In addition, the planning processing unit 132 formulates a bidding plan and a charge-discharge plan based on the predicted price distributions corresponding to the wholesale power market, the supply-demand adjustment market, and the capacity market, respectively. In addition, the planning processing unit 132 formulates a bidding plan and a charge-discharge plan based on the device information stored in the device information storage unit 121 and the predicted price distribution. The planning processing unit 132 formulates a bidding plan and a charge-discharge plan based on a preset prediction range (for example, average value ± 2σ, etc.) in a normal distribution.

[0035] In addition, the planning processing unit 132 formulates a charge-discharge plan so as to suppress the deterioration of the storage battery 20 based on a preset number of charge-discharge cycle limits in a certain period and the device information. That is, the planning processing unit 132 allocates the storage batteries 20 to be charged and discharged so as not to exceed the cycle limit number of each storage battery 20, and formulates a charge-discharge plan. In addition to the cycle limit number, the planning processing unit 132 may formulate a charge-discharge plan so as to suppress the deterioration of the storage battery 20 by using the charge-discharge efficiency, the storage battery deterioration state, etc.

[0036] The planning processing unit 132 stores the formulated bidding plan and charge-discharge plan in the planned value storage unit 124. Note that the planning processing unit 132 may re-formulate the bidding plan and the charge-discharge plan when the difference between the actual value stored in the actual value storage unit 125 and the planned value (predicted value) in the bidding plan becomes equal to or greater than a threshold value. In addition, the planning processing unit 132 formulates a bidding plan and a charge-discharge plan in a certain period unit, such as a bidding plan and a charge-discharge plan on a weekly basis, a bidding plan and a charge-discharge plan on a daily basis, etc.

[0037] The monitoring and control unit 133 controls the charge and discharge of the storage battery 20 based on the charge-discharge plan formulated by the planning processing unit 132, and stores the actual values of power procurement and sales by the control of the charge and discharge in the actual value storage unit 125. The monitoring and control unit 133 generates a control command for the charge and discharge of the storage battery 20 according to the charge-discharge plan stored in the planned value storage unit 124, outputs the control command to each storage battery 20, and controls the charge and discharge.

[0038] Further, the monitoring control unit 133 corrects the charge and discharge control so that the difference between the actual value stored in the actual value storage unit 125 and the predicted value in the bidding plan is reduced. For example, when the difference between the actual value and the predicted value becomes equal to or greater than a threshold value, the monitoring control unit 133 corrects the charge and discharge control command so that the difference between the actual value and the predicted value is reduced.

[0039] Further, when the difference between the actual value stored in the actual value storage unit 125 and the predicted value in the bidding plan becomes equal to or greater than a threshold value, the monitoring control unit 133 may output an alarm indicating that an abnormality has occurred.

[0040] The display control unit 134 generates display information indicating the predicted price distribution, the bidding plan and the charge and discharge plan, the predicted revenue value based on the bidding plan and the charge and discharge plan, and the actual revenue value based on the actual value, and selectively displays the generated display information on the display unit 33 of the user terminal 30. The display control unit 134 is, for example, a Web processing unit accessible from the user terminal 30, and displays various displays on the display unit 33 in response to a display request from the user terminal 30. Details of the display information displayed by the display control unit 134 will be described later.

[0041] The user terminal 30 is, for example, a terminal device such as a personal computer, a tablet terminal, a smartphone, etc., and is used for input of various information and display of display information when using the power trading support system 1. The user terminal 30 includes an NW communication unit 31, an input unit 32, a display unit 33, a terminal storage unit 34, and a terminal control unit 35.

[0042] The NW communication unit 31 is a functional unit realized by a communication device such as a network adapter, for example. The NW communication unit 31 connects to the network NW1 and communicates between the user terminal 30 and the power trading support device 10.

[0043] The input unit 32 is an input device such as a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, etc., for example, and receives various information according to the operation of the user. The input unit 32 outputs the received various information to the terminal control unit 35.

[0044] The display unit 33 is a display device such as a liquid crystal display, and displays display information such as the setting screen of the power trading support system 1, predicted values, planned plans, and actual results. The terminal storage unit 34 stores various types of information used by the user terminal 30.

[0045] The terminal control unit 35 is a functional unit realized by, for example, causing a processor including a CPU to execute a program stored in the terminal storage unit 34, and comprehensively controls the user terminal 30. The terminal control unit 35 is connected to the power trading support device 10 via the NW communication unit 31, and transmits the planned policy (strategy policy), constraint information for planning, selection information of display information, etc. received by the input unit 32 to the power trading support device 10.

[0046] Also, the terminal control unit 35 causes the display unit 33 to display the display information received from the power trading support device 10 via the NW communication unit 31, for example.

[0047] Next, with reference to the drawings, the operation of the power trading support system 1 according to the present embodiment will be described. FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing an example of the operation process of the system battery of the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment.

[0048] As shown in FIG. 4, the device control unit 13 of the power trading support device 10 first formulates a strategy in response to a user's request (step S101). The device control unit 13 obtains a strategy policy (information indicating which one of, for example, the procurement price of power, the selling price of power, trading risk, and expected profit is to be prioritized) from the terminal control unit 35 via the NW communication unit 11, and formulates a strategy.

[0049] Next, the device control unit 13 predicts the power demand and the power market price based on the weather information and the actual price (step S102). The prediction processing unit 131 of the device control unit 13, for example, performs demand prediction and PV prediction from the weather information, and predicts the spot price from the weather information and the spot actual price. The prediction processing unit 131 stores the predicted values in the prediction information storage unit 123.

[0050] Next, the prediction processing unit 131 generates a probability distribution (prediction probability distribution) of the predicted value of the power market price (step S103). The prediction processing unit 131 generates a probability distribution such as the waveform W1 shown in FIG. 3, for example, based on the average value and the standard deviation of the predicted value. Note that the waveform W1 shown in FIG. 3 is the probability distribution of the predicted value of the power market price at a certain date and time, and the prediction processing unit 131 generates the probability distribution of the predicted value of the power market price for each date and time. The prediction processing unit 131 stores the generated probability distribution of the predicted value of the power market price in the prediction information storage unit 123 in association with the date and time information indicating the date and time.

[0051] Next, the planning processing unit 132 of the device control unit 13 formulates a power bidding plan and a charge / discharge plan for the storage battery 20 based on the probability distribution of the power market price and the storage battery information (step S104). The planning processing unit 132 formulates a bidding plan for each power market and a charge / discharge plan for the storage battery 20 according to the specified strategy policy. The planning processing unit 132 stores the formulated bidding plan and the charge / discharge plan for the storage battery 20 in the plan value storage unit 124.

[0052] Next, the monitoring and control unit 133 of the device control unit 13 performs a bidding process based on the bidding plan and controls the charge and discharge of the storage battery 20 based on the charge / discharge plan (step S105). The monitoring and control unit 133 executes a bidding process for each power market (for example, the wholesale power market, the supply-demand adjustment market, and the capacity market, etc.) based on the bidding plan. In addition, the monitoring and control unit 133 outputs a control command based on the charge / discharge plan of the storage battery 20 to control the charge and discharge of the storage battery 20.

[0053] Next, the monitoring control unit 133 acquires the actual value and stores it in the actual value storage unit 125 (step S106). The monitoring control unit 133 acquires, for example, the bidding result of electric power, the actual value of the electricity market price, the charge / discharge result of the storage battery 20, the actual demand value, etc., and stores the actual value in the actual value storage unit 125.

[0054] Next, the monitoring control unit 133 determines whether the difference between the predicted value and the actual value of the plan is greater than or equal to a threshold value (step S107). The monitoring control unit 133 determines, for example, whether the difference between the predicted demand value and the actual demand value is greater than or equal to a threshold value (for example, greater than or equal to the first threshold value indicating an abnormality). For example, if the difference between the predicted value and the actual value of the charge capacity (SOC) of the storage battery 20 is large, an abnormality of the storage battery 20 is considered. When the difference between the predicted value and the actual value of the plan is greater than or equal to the threshold value (step S107: YES), the monitoring control unit 133 proceeds with the process to step S108. Also, when the difference between the predicted value and the actual value of the plan is less than the threshold value (less than the first threshold value) (step S107: NO), the monitoring control unit 133 proceeds with the process to step S109.

[0055] In step S108, the monitoring control unit 133 outputs an abnormality alarm. The monitoring control unit 133 causes, for example, alarm information indicating an abnormality to be displayed on the display unit 33 of the user terminal 30 via the NW communication unit 11. After the process of step S108, the monitoring control unit 133 ends the process.

[0056] Also, in step S109, the monitoring control unit 133 determines whether control correction is necessary. The monitoring control unit 133 proceeds with the process to step S110 when control correction is necessary, for example, when the difference between the predicted value and the actual value of the plan is greater than or equal to a second threshold value that can be corrected and less than the first threshold value (step S109: YES). Also, when control correction is not necessary (step S109: NO), the monitoring control unit 133 proceeds with the process to step S111.

[0057] In step S110, the monitoring and control unit 133 corrects the control so that the difference between the predicted value and the measured value of the plan is reduced. That is, the monitoring and control unit 133 corrects the charge / discharge control command so that the difference between the predicted value and the measured value of the plan is reduced. Further, the monitoring and control unit 133 may correct the bidding plan so that the difference between the predicted value and the measured value of the plan is reduced. After the processing of step S110, the monitoring and control unit 133 returns the processing to step S105.

[0058] Also, in step S111, the monitoring and control unit 133 determines whether the plan has ended. When the monitoring and control unit 133 determines that the plan has ended (step S111: YES), it returns the processing to step S102 and returns to the processing of formulating the next plan. Also, when the monitoring and control unit 133 determines that the plan has not ended (step S111: NO), it returns the processing to step S102 and executes the processing based on the next plan.

[0059] In the example shown in FIG. 4 described above, an example in which the monitoring and control unit 133 corrects the charge / discharge control command or the bidding plan has been described, but a review may be performed from the plan formulation. In this case, the planning processing unit 132 re-formulates the bidding plan and the charge / discharge plan of the storage battery 20 so that the difference between the predicted value and the measured value of the plan is reduced.

[0060] Next, with reference to FIG. 5, the display processing of various display information of the power trading support device 10 will be described. FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing an example of the display processing of the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment.

[0061] As shown in FIG. 5, in the display process of various display information, the device control unit 13 of the power trading support device 10 causes the display unit 33 to display a display menu screen (step S201). The display control unit 134 of the device control unit 13 transmits display information indicating the display menu screen to the user terminal 30 connected to the power trading support device 10 via the NW communication unit 11. The terminal control unit 35 of the user terminal 30 receives the display information indicating the display menu screen via the NW communication unit 31, and displays the display menu screen on the display unit 33 based on the received display information. The display menu screen includes, for example, a display request for the predicted price distribution, a display request for the plan, a display request for the predicted profit value, and a display request for the predicted profit value, etc.

[0062] Next, the display control unit 134 determines whether a display request has been received (step S202). The display control unit 134 determines whether a display request based on the display menu screen has been received by operating the input unit 32 of the user terminal 30 via the NW communication unit 11. When the display control unit 134 receives a display request (step S202: YES), the process proceeds to step S203. Also, when the display control unit 134 has not received a display request (step S202: NO), the process returns to step S202.

[0063] In step S203, the display control unit 134 branches to the process according to the display request. When the display request is a display request for the predicted price distribution, the display control unit 134 proceeds to step S204 and causes the display unit 33 to display the display information indicating the predicted price distribution.

[0064] In step S204, the display control unit 134 causes the display unit 33 of the user terminal 30 to display display information such as the image G1 shown in FIG. 6. FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of the display of the price prediction distribution of the power trading support system 1 according to the present embodiment.

[0065] In FIG. 6, the horizontal axis represents time, and the vertical axis represents the predicted market price. Also, waveform W2 represents the average value of the predicted market price, waveform W3 represents the range of the average value ±σ, and waveform W4 represents the range of the average value ±2σ.

[0066] Note that in addition to the image G1 shown in FIG. 6, the display control unit 134 may display a graph such as waveform W1 in FIG. 3 as the price prediction distribution at a specified time. Also, waveforms W1 to W3 represent the price prediction distribution for one day. The display control unit 134 may selectively display the price prediction distributions for one week, one month, one year, etc. in addition to one day, or may display the price prediction distribution for an arbitrary period (arbitrary range) specified using the input unit 32 of the user terminal 30. After the process of step S204, the display control unit 134 ends the process.

[0067] Also, in step S203, if the display request is a display request for a plan, the display control unit 134 advances the process to step S205 and causes the display unit 33 to display the display information indicating the plan.

[0068] In step S205, the display control unit 134 causes the display unit 33 of the user terminal 30 to display display information such as the image G2 shown in FIG. 7. FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of display of the charge / discharge plan and SOC of the power trading support system 1 according to the present embodiment.

[0069] In FIG. 7, the horizontal axis represents time, and the vertical axis represents the planned charge / discharge power and SOC of the plan. Also, waveform W5 represents the plan of the charge capacity (SOC) of the storage battery 20, bar graph C1 represents the charge plan of the storage battery 20, and bar graph D1 represents the discharge plan of the storage battery 20.

[0070] Also, in step S205, the display control unit 134 may cause the display unit 33 of the user terminal 30 to display display information such as the image G3 shown in FIG. 8. FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of display of the market price and the charge / discharge plan of the power trading support system according to the present embodiment.

[0071] In FIG. 8, the horizontal axis indicates time, and the vertical axis indicates the predicted values of the planned charge / discharge power and the spot price. Also, waveform W6 indicates the average value of the predicted spot price, waveform W7 indicates the upper limit value of the predicted spot price, and waveform W8 indicates the lower limit value of the predicted spot price. Further, bar graph C2 indicates the charge plan of the storage battery 20. Also, bar graph D2 indicates the discharge plan of the storage battery 20.

[0072] Note that in addition to the image G2 shown in FIG. 7, the display control unit 134 may display, for example, the charge capacity of the storage battery 20 and the actual values of charge / discharge. Also, waveform W4 indicates the plan of the charge capacity (SOC) of the storage battery 20 in one day, and the display control unit 134 may selectively display plans for one week, one month, one year, etc. in addition to one day, or may display the plan for an arbitrary period (arbitrary range) specified using the input unit 32 of the user terminal 30.

[0073] Similarly, for waveforms W6 to W8 shown in FIG. 8, in addition to one day, the predicted values of the market price for one week, one month, one year, etc. may be selectively displayed, or the predicted values of the market price for an arbitrary period (arbitrary range) specified using the input unit 32 of the user terminal 30 may be displayed. After the process of step S205, the display control unit 134 ends the process.

[0074] Also, in step S203, when the display request is a display request for the predicted profit value, the display control unit 134 advances the process to step S206 and causes the display unit 33 to display the display information indicating the predicted profit value.

[0075] In step S206, the display control unit 134 causes the display unit 33 of the user terminal 30 to display display information such as the image G4 shown in FIG. 9, for example. FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of the display of the profit distribution of the power trading support system 1 according to the present embodiment.

[0076] In FIG. 9, the vertical axis represents probability, and the horizontal axis represents the predicted profit value. Also, the waveform W9 represents the distribution of the predicted profit value for one day. Note that although the waveform W9 represents the predicted profit value of the storage battery 20 for one day, the display control unit 134 may selectively display the predicted profit value for one week, one month, one year, etc. in addition to one day. After the process of step S206, the display control unit 134 ends the process.

[0077] Also, in step S203, when the display request is a display request for the actual profit value, the display control unit 134 advances the process to step S207 and causes the display unit 33 to display the display information indicating the actual profit value. In step S206, the display control unit 134 may display the actual profit value together with the predicted profit value shown in FIG. 9, or may display a graph of the actual profit value for each day, a graph of the actual profit value for each week, etc. After the process of step S207, the display control unit 134 ends the process.

[0078] As described above, the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment includes a prediction processing unit 131 and a planning processing unit 132. The prediction processing unit 131 generates a predicted price distribution that is a predicted value of the power market price predicted based on weather information and is a probability distribution of the predicted value of the power market price in the power market where the power charged and discharged by the storage battery 20 (power storage device) is traded. The planning processing unit 132 plans a power bidding plan and a charge / discharge plan of the storage battery 20 based on the predicted price distribution generated by the prediction processing unit 131 and the device information regarding the storage battery 20 to be managed.

[0079] As a result, the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment formulates a power bidding plan and a charge / discharge plan for the storage battery 20 based on the probability distribution of the predicted value of the power market price in the power market. Therefore, after grasping the risk based on the probability distribution of the predicted value, it is possible to formulate a plan so as to obtain a profit, and the system-connected storage battery 20 can be operated with high accuracy. Thus, the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment can achieve both, for example, maximizing profit and reducing risk in power trading.

[0080] Further, in the present embodiment, the planning processing unit 132 formulates a bidding plan and a charge / discharge plan based on a planning policy that prioritizes at least one of the power procurement price, the power selling price, the trading risk, and the expected profit, based on the specified planning policy.

[0081] As a result, the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment can formulate an efficient bidding plan and charge / discharge plan according to the planning policy in power trading, and can perform flexible operation of power trading according to the purpose.

[0082] Further, the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment includes a device information storage unit 121 that stores the storage battery ID (energy storage device identification information) for identifying the storage battery 20 in association with device information including at least the maximum charge capacity, the maximum discharge power, and the current charge capacity. The planning processing unit 132 formulates a bidding plan and a charge / discharge plan based on the device information stored in the device information storage unit 121 and the predicted price distribution.

[0083] As a result, the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment can perform efficient operation according to the characteristics of the storage battery 20.

[0084] Further, in the present embodiment, the planning processing unit 132 formulates a charge / discharge plan so as to suppress the deterioration of the storage battery 20 based on the preset charge / discharge cycle limit number in a certain period and the device information.

[0085] As a result, the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment can perform more appropriate operation of the storage battery 20 in consideration of the deterioration of the storage battery 20.

[0086] In addition, in the present embodiment, the power market includes a wholesale power market, a supply-demand adjustment market, and a capacity market. The prediction processing unit 131 generates a predicted price distribution corresponding to each of the wholesale power market, the supply-demand adjustment market, and the capacity market. The planning processing unit 132 formulates a bidding plan and a charge-discharge plan based on the predicted price distribution corresponding to each of the wholesale power market, the supply-demand adjustment market, and the capacity market.

[0087] As a result, the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment can formulate a bidding plan and a charge-discharge plan corresponding to the wholesale power market, the supply-demand adjustment market, and the capacity market, and thus can perform efficient operation using the wholesale power market, the supply-demand adjustment market, and the capacity market. For example, it can stably generate profits.

[0088] In addition, in the present embodiment, the prediction processing unit 131 predicts a predicted value of the power market price based on the weather information and the actual value of the past power market price.

[0089] As a result, the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment can easily and accurately predict the power market price from the weather information and the actual value of the past power market price.

[0090] In addition, in the present embodiment, the prediction processing unit 131 generates a predicted price distribution as a normal distribution based on the average predicted value and the standard deviation value according to the predicted value of the power market price. The planning processing unit 132 formulates a bidding plan and a charge-discharge plan based on a preset prediction range in the normal distribution.

[0091] As a result, the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment can generate a predicted price distribution by a simple method using the average predicted value and the standard deviation value.

[0092] In addition, the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment includes a monitoring and control unit 133. The monitoring and control unit 133 controls the charging and discharging of the storage battery 20 based on the charging and discharging plan formulated by the formulation processing unit 132, and causes the actual value storage unit 125 to store the actual values of power procurement and sales resulting from the control of the charging and discharging.

[0093] Thereby, the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment can feed back the actual values of power procurement and sales to the next prediction and plan by storing the actual values in the actual value storage unit 125, and can improve the operation accuracy of power trading.

[0094] Also, in the present embodiment, the monitoring and control unit 133 corrects the control of charging and discharging so that the difference between the actual value stored in the actual value storage unit 125 and the predicted value in the bidding plan is reduced.

[0095] Thereby, the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment can further improve the operation accuracy of power trading by correcting the control of charging and discharging.

[0096] Also, in the present embodiment, when the difference between the actual value stored in the actual value storage unit 125 and the predicted value in the bidding plan becomes equal to or greater than a threshold value (equal to or greater than a first threshold value), the monitoring and control unit 133 outputs an alarm indicating that an abnormality has occurred.

[0097] Thereby, the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment can promptly notify the user, for example, that an abnormality has occurred in the storage battery 20.

[0098] Also, in the present embodiment, when the difference between the actual value stored in the actual value storage unit 125 and the predicted value in the bidding plan becomes equal to or greater than a threshold value (equal to or greater than a second threshold value), the formulation processing unit 132 re-formulates the bidding plan and the charging and discharging plan.

[0099] Thereby, the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment can appropriately correct the plan by re-formulating the bidding plan and the charging and discharging plan, and can suppress a decrease in profit due to power trading.

[0100] In addition, the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment includes a display control unit 134. The display control unit 134 generates display information indicating each of the predicted price distribution, the bidding plan and the charge / discharge plan, the predicted revenue value based on the bidding plan and the charge / discharge plan, and the actual revenue value based on the actual results, and selectively displays the generated display information on the display unit 33.

[0101] Thereby, the power trading support device 10 according to the present embodiment can selectively display the display information indicating the predicted price distribution, the bidding plan and the charge / discharge plan, the predicted revenue value based on the bidding plan and the charge / discharge plan, and the actual revenue value based on the actual results. Therefore, the user can confirm the operation results and the predicted revenue, and can use them for the operation of future power trading.

[0102] In addition, the power trading support system 1 according to the present embodiment includes the above-described power trading support device 10 and the storage battery 20. Thereby, the power trading support system 1 according to the present embodiment exhibits the same effects as the above-described power trading support device 10, and in power trading, for example, both maximization of revenue and reduction of risk can be achieved.

[0103] In addition, the trading support method according to the present embodiment includes a first step and a second step. In the first step, the prediction processing unit 131 generates a predicted price distribution that is a predicted value of the power market price predicted based on the weather information and is a probability distribution of the predicted value of the power market price in the power market where the power charged and discharged by the storage battery 20 is traded. In the second step, the planning processing unit 132 plans a power bidding plan and a charge / discharge plan of the storage battery 20 based on the predicted price distribution generated by the prediction processing unit 131 and the device information regarding the storage battery 20 to be managed.

[0104] Thereby, the trading support method according to the present embodiment exhibits the same effects as the above-described power trading support device 10, and in power trading, for example, both maximization of revenue and reduction of risk can be achieved.

[0105] Figure 10 is a diagram for explaining the hardware configuration of each device of the power trading support system 1 according to the present embodiment. The devices shown in Figure 10 show the hardware configurations of the devices (power trading support device 10 and external server 2) of the power trading support system 1.

[0106] As shown in Figure 10, each device (power trading support device 10 and external server 2) of the power trading support system 1 includes a communication device H11, a memory H12, and a processor H13.

[0107] The communication device H11 is a communication device that can be connected to a network NW1, such as a LAN card. The memory H12 is a storage device such as a RAM, a flash memory, an HDD, etc., and stores various information and programs used by each device (power trading support device 10 and external server 2).

[0108] The processor H13 is a processing circuit including, for example, a CPU. The processor H13 executes various processes of each device (power trading support device 10 and external server 2) by executing the programs stored in the memory H12.

[0109] Note that the present disclosure is not limited to the above embodiments and can be modified without departing from the spirit of the present disclosure. For example, in the above embodiment, an example in which the power trading support device 10 is realized as one server device has been described, but it is not limited thereto, and it may be realized by a plurality of devices such as a plurality of server devices.

[0110] Also, in the above embodiment, an example in which the power trading support system 1 uses the user terminal 30 to input and display various information has been described, but it is not limited thereto. For example, the power trading support device 10 may have a configuration including an input unit 32 and a display unit 33.

[0111] In the above-described embodiment, as an example of the probability distribution of the predicted price distribution, an example using a normal distribution based on the mean value and the standard deviation of the predicted value was described. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and other probability distributions may be used.

[0112] In the above-described embodiment, an example in which the external server 2 is a single server device was described. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and a server device (a plurality of server devices) may be provided for each provided service.

[0113] Each component included in the power trading support system 1 described above has a computer system inside. Then, a program for realizing the functions of each component included in the power trading support system 1 described above is recorded on a computer-readable recording medium, and the program recorded on this recording medium is read into the computer system and executed, whereby the processing in each component included in the power trading support system 1 described above may be performed. Here, "reading the program recorded on the recording medium into the computer system and executing it" includes installing the program in the computer system. The "computer system" here is assumed to include hardware such as an OS and peripheral devices.

[0114] Further, the "computer system" may include a plurality of computer devices connected via a network including a communication line such as the Internet, WAN, LAN, or dedicated line. Also, the "computer-readable recording medium" refers to a portable medium such as a flexible disk, magneto-optical disk, ROM, CD-ROM, or a storage device such as a hard disk built into the computer system. Thus, the recording medium storing the program may be a non-transitory recording medium such as a CD-ROM.

[0115] In addition, the recording medium also includes an internal or external recording medium provided so as to be accessible from a distribution server for distributing the program. Note that the program may be divided into a plurality of parts, downloaded at different timings, and then combined by each component included in the power trading support system 1, or the distribution servers for distributing the respective divided programs may be different. Further, the "computer-readable recording medium" includes those that hold a program for a certain period of time, such as a volatile memory (RAM) inside a computer system that becomes a server or a client when a program is transmitted via a network. Also, the above program may be for realizing a part of the functions described above. Further, it may be a so-called difference file (difference program) that can realize the above-described functions in combination with a program already recorded in the computer system.

[0116] Hereinafter, various aspects of the present disclosure will be collectively described as appendices. (Appendix 1) A prediction processing unit that generates a predicted price distribution, which is a probability distribution of a predicted value of the electricity market price in an electricity market where electricity traded by the power storage device is bought and sold; A planning processing unit that formulates a bidding plan for electricity and a charging / discharging plan for the power storage device based on the predicted price distribution generated by the prediction processing unit and device information regarding the power storage device to be managed A power trading support device comprising: (Appendix 2) The planning processing unit is a planning policy that prioritizes at least one of the procurement price of electricity, the selling price of electricity, trading risk, and expected profit, and formulates the bidding plan and the charging / discharging plan based on the specified planning policy. The power trading support device according to Appendix 1. (Appendix 3) A device information storage unit that stores, in association with each other, power storage device identification information for identifying the power storage device and the device information including at least the maximum charge capacity, the maximum discharge power, and the current charge capacity; Based on the device information stored in the device information storage unit and the predicted price distribution, the planning processing unit formulates the bidding plan and the charge and discharge plan. The power trading support device according to Appendix 1 or Appendix 2. (Appendix 4) Based on the preset number of charge and discharge cycle limits within a certain period and the device information, the planning processing unit formulates the charge and discharge plan so as to suppress deterioration of the energy storage device. The power trading support device according to Appendix 3. (Appendix 5) The power market includes a wholesale power market, a supply-demand adjustment market, and a capacity market. The prediction processing unit generates the predicted price distributions corresponding to the wholesale power market, the supply-demand adjustment market, and the capacity market respectively. Based on the predicted price distributions corresponding to the wholesale power market, the supply-demand adjustment market, and the capacity market respectively, the planning processing unit formulates the bidding plan and the charge and discharge plan. The power trading support device according to any one of Appendices 1 to 4. (Appendix 6) The prediction processing unit predicts the predicted value of the power market price based on weather information and the actual values of past power market prices. The power trading support device according to any one of Appendices 1 to 5. (Appendix 7) Based on the average predicted value and the standard deviation value by the predicted value of the power market price, the prediction processing unit generates the predicted price distribution as a normal distribution. In the normal distribution, based on a preset prediction range, the planning processing unit formulates the bidding plan and the charge and discharge plan. The power trading support device according to any one of Appendices 1 to 6. (Appendix 8) Based on the charge and discharge plan formulated by the planning processing unit, a monitoring and control unit controls the charge and discharge of the energy storage device and stores the actual values of power procurement and sales due to the control of the charge and discharge in an actual value storage unit. The power trading support device according to any one of Appendices 1 to 5. (Appendix 9) The monitoring and control unit corrects the control of the charging and discharging so that the difference between the actual value stored in the actual value storage unit and the predicted value in the bidding plan is reduced. The power trading support device according to Appendix 8. (Appendix 10) When the difference between the actual value stored in the actual value storage unit and the predicted value in the bidding plan becomes equal to or greater than a threshold value, the monitoring and control unit outputs an alarm indicating that an abnormality has occurred. The power trading support device according to Appendix 8 or Appendix 9. (Appendix 11) When the difference between the actual value stored in the actual value storage unit and the predicted value in the bidding plan becomes equal to or greater than a threshold value, the planning processing unit re-plans the bidding plan and the charging and discharging plan. The power trading support device according to Appendix 8 or Appendix 9. (Appendix 12) A display control unit that generates display information indicating each of the predicted price distribution, the bidding plan and the charging and discharging plan, the predicted revenue value based on the bidding plan and the charging and discharging plan, and the actual revenue value based on the actual value, and selectively displays the generated display information on a display unit. The power trading support device according to any one of Appendices 8 to 10. (Appendix 13) The power trading support device according to any one of Appendices 1 to 12, and the energy storage device A power trading support system comprising: (Appendix 14) A prediction processing unit generates a predicted price distribution that is a probability distribution of a predicted value of a power market price in a power market where the power charged and discharged by the energy storage device is traded. A planning processing unit plans a power bidding plan and a charging and discharging plan for the energy storage device based on the predicted price distribution generated by the prediction processing unit and device information regarding the energy storage device to be managed. A power trading support method. (Appendix 15) On a computer, A prediction processing step for generating a predicted price distribution which is a probability distribution of a predicted value of an electricity market price in an electricity market where electric power charged and discharged by an energy storage device is traded, A planning processing step for formulating a power bidding plan and a charge / discharge plan of the energy storage device based on the predicted price distribution generated by the prediction processing step and device information regarding the energy storage device to be managed, A program for causing the above to be executed.

Explanation of Signs

[0117] 1…Power trading support system, 2…External server, 10…Power trading support device, 11, 31…NW communication unit, 12…Device storage unit, 13…Device control unit, 20…Storage battery, 30…User terminal, 32…Input unit, 33…Display unit, 34…Terminal storage unit, 35…Terminal control unit, 121…Device information storage unit, 122…Weather information storage unit, 123…Prediction information storage unit, 124…Planned value storage unit, 125…Actual value storage unit, 131…Prediction processing unit, 132…Planning processing unit, 133…Monitoring control unit, 134…Display control unit, NW1…Network

Claims

1. A prediction processing unit that generates a predicted price distribution, which is a probability distribution of a predicted value of the electricity market price in an electricity market where the electricity stored in a power storage device is traded; A planning processing unit that formulates a power bidding plan and a charge / discharge plan of the power storage device based on the predicted price distribution generated by the prediction processing unit and device information regarding the power storage device to be managed An electricity trading support device comprising the same.

2. The planning processing unit has a planning policy that prioritizes at least one of the procurement price of electricity, the selling price of electricity, trading risk, and expected profit, and formulates the bidding plan and the charge / discharge plan based on the specified planning policy The electricity trading support device according to claim 1.

3. It comprises a device information storage unit that stores the power storage device identification information for identifying the power storage device in association with the device information including at least the maximum charge capacity, the maximum discharge power, and the current charge capacity, The planning processing unit formulates the bidding plan and the charge / discharge plan based on the device information stored in the device information storage unit and the predicted price distribution. The electricity trading support device according to claim 1.

4. The planning processing unit formulates the charge / discharge plan so as to suppress deterioration of the power storage device based on a preset number of charge / discharge cycle limits within a certain period and the device information. The electricity trading support device according to claim 3.

5. The electricity market includes a wholesale electricity market, a supply-demand adjustment market, and a capacity market, The prediction processing unit generates the predicted price distributions corresponding to the wholesale electricity market, the supply-demand adjustment market, and the capacity market respectively, The planning processing unit formulates the bidding plan and the charge / discharge plan based on the predicted price distributions corresponding to the wholesale electricity market, the supply-demand adjustment market, and the capacity market respectively. The electricity trading support device according to claim 1.

6. The prediction processing unit predicts the predicted value of the electricity market price based on weather information and past actual values of the electricity market price. The electricity trading support device according to claim 1.

7. The prediction processing unit generates the predicted price distribution as a normal distribution based on the average predicted value and the standard deviation value according to the predicted value of the electricity market price, The planning processing unit formulates the bidding plan and the charge / discharge plan based on a preset prediction range in the normal distribution. The electricity trading support device according to claim 1.

8. A monitoring and control unit is provided that controls charging and discharging of the energy storage device based on the charging and discharging plan formulated by the formulation processing unit, and stores actual values of power procurement and sales resulting from the control of the charging and discharging in the actual value storage unit. The power trading support device according to claim 1.

9. The monitoring and control unit corrects the control of the charging and discharging so that the difference between the actual value stored in the actual value storage unit and the predicted value in the bidding plan is reduced. The power trading support device according to claim 8.

10. When the difference between the actual value stored in the actual value storage unit and the predicted value in the bidding plan becomes equal to or greater than a threshold value, the monitoring and control unit outputs an alarm indicating that an abnormality has occurred. The power trading support device according to claim 8.

11. When the difference between the actual value stored in the actual value storage unit and the predicted value in the bidding plan becomes equal to or greater than a threshold value, the formulation processing unit re-formulates the bidding plan and the charging and discharging plan. The power trading support device according to claim 8.

12. A display control unit is provided that generates display information indicating each of the predicted price distribution, the bidding plan and the charging and discharging plan, the predicted revenue value based on the bidding plan and the charging and discharging plan, and the actual revenue value based on the actual value, and selectively displays the generated display information on a display unit. The power trading support device according to claim 8.

13. A power trading support system comprising the power trading support device according to any one of claims 1 to 12, and the energy storage device.

14. A prediction processing unit generates a predicted price distribution which is a probability distribution of predicted values of the power market price in a power market where power charged and discharged by the energy storage device is traded. A formulation processing unit formulates a power bidding plan and a charging and discharging plan for the energy storage device based on the predicted price distribution generated by the prediction processing unit and device information regarding the energy storage device to be managed. Power trading support method.

15. On a computer, a prediction processing step of generating a predicted price distribution which is a probability distribution of predicted values of the power market price in a power market where power charged and discharged by the energy storage device is traded, and a formulation processing step of formulating a power bidding plan and a charging and discharging plan for the energy storage device based on the predicted price distribution generated by the prediction processing step and device information regarding the energy storage device to be managed. A program for causing the above to be executed.

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