Information processing device, prediction method, and prediction program

Abstract

To suppress CO2 emissions caused by excessive production of power storage elements for replacement.SOLUTION: An information processing device 1 comprises: a storage unit 11 that stores, for each SOH band in which SOH of a power storage device 2 is divided into a plurality of stages, a first replacement probability that a first power storage device 2 used in each of a plurality of vehicles 3A is replaced; a processing unit 10; and a communication unit 14. The processing unit 10 communicates with at least one of a plurality of vehicles 3B, each using a second power storage device 2 of the same type as the first power storage device 2 or having operating degradation characteristics similar to the first power storage device 2, and a plurality of charging devices 5 that charge the second power storage device 2, aggregates the number of the second power storage devices 2 for each SOH band, and predicts the number of the second power storage devices 2 required for replacement on the basis of the number of the second power storage devices 2 for each SOH band and the first replacement probability.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 6

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The technology disclosed in this specification relates to an information processing device, a prediction method, and a prediction program. [Background technology]

[0002] It is known that the full charge capacity (hereinafter simply referred to as "charge capacity") of an energy storage element such as a lithium-ion secondary battery decreases with use (see, for example, Patent Document 1). When the charge capacity decreases, the energy storage element cannot perform to its full potential, and therefore an energy storage element with a decreased charge capacity may be replaced with a new energy storage element. In the following explanation, a decrease in charge capacity is referred to as degradation of the energy storage element. The indicator of deterioration of a storage element is not limited to the charge capacity. For example, the internal resistance value may also be used as an indicator of deterioration. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Patent No. 6988386 (Paragraph 0018) Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] Energy storage elements installed in vehicles, which are an example of a mobile body, are manufactured primarily for two purposes: for new vehicles to be installed in new cars, and for replacing deteriorated energy storage elements (in other words, for repairs). For new cars, the number of energy storage elements required can be predicted from the number of vehicles manufactured to be installed. In contrast, for replacement energy storage elements, the need for replacement is only discovered after the energy storage elements have actually deteriorated in the field. For this reason, it has been difficult to appropriately determine the number of replacement energy storage elements that should be manufactured. An object of one embodiment of the present invention is to reduce CO 2 emissions caused by excessive production of replacement energy storage elements. [Means for solving the problem]

[0005] The information processing device disclosed in this specification includes a memory unit that stores a first replacement probability of replacing a first storage element used in each of a plurality of first-type devices for each deterioration stage obtained by dividing the deterioration state of the storage element into a plurality of stages, a processing unit, and a communication unit. The processing unit communicates with at least one of a plurality of second-type devices that use a second storage element of the same type as the first storage element or a second storage element having operational deterioration characteristics similar to the first storage element, and a plurality of charging devices that charge the second storage elements, to tally the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage, and predicts the number of the second storage elements that will be required for replacement based on the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability. [Effects of the Invention]

[0006] According to the above configuration, it is possible to reduce CO2 emissions caused by excessive production of replacement electric storage elements. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0007] [Figure 1] Schematic diagram of an information processing device according to embodiment 1. [Figure 2] A block diagram showing the electrical configuration of an information processing device. [Figure 3] Schematic diagram showing various information related to the power storage device [Figure 4] A table in which current information about the first power storage device is compiled. [Figure 5A] Histogram showing the number of energy storage devices that reached each SOH band shown in Figure 4 [Figure 5B] Histogram showing the number of storage devices replaced due to deterioration in each SOH band [Figure 6] A table summarizing information about the second power storage device at the present time [Figure 7] Table showing replacement probability (second replacement probability) due to failure of first power storage device [Figure 8] Table in which information about the second power storage device is compiled [Figure 9]Table showing predicted number of replacement units of second power storage devices one year from now [Figure 10] Graph showing operational deterioration characteristics of the first power storage device [Figure 11A] FIG. 9 shows a histogram representing the number of second power storage devices currently on the market. [Figure 11B] Histogram showing the number of units one year later DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0008] [Outline of the embodiment] First, an outline of the embodiments of the present disclosure will be listed and described.

[0009] (1) An information processing device according to an embodiment includes a memory unit that stores a first replacement probability of replacing a first storage element used in each of a plurality of first-type devices for each deterioration stage obtained by dividing the deterioration state of a storage element into a plurality of stages, a processing unit, and a communication unit. The processing unit communicates with at least one of a plurality of second-type devices that use a second storage element of the same type as the first storage element or a second storage element having similar operational deterioration characteristics to the first storage element, and a plurality of charging devices that charge the second storage elements, to tally the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage, and predicts the number of the second storage elements that will be required for replacement based on the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability.

[0010] Operational degradation refers to the progression of degradation as the power storage device is operated. Factors that cause the progression of degradation as the device is operated include aging degradation over time and current degradation due to current flow. The above-mentioned operational degradation characteristics refer to information that indicates the correspondence between the degradation state and time. When it is not possible to appropriately determine the number of replacement energy storage elements to be manufactured, it is possible to manufacture more replacement energy storage elements in advance to prevent a shortage of replacement energy storage elements when replacement is required. However, in recent years, CO2 emissions during the energy storage element manufacturing stage have become a problem. For this reason, there is a need to limit the number of energy storage elements manufactured to an appropriate number, in other words, to reduce CO2 emissions caused by excessive production of energy storage elements.

[0011] According to the information processing device described in (1) above, the first replacement probability of replacing a first storage element of the same type as the second storage element or a first storage element having similar operational deterioration characteristics to the second storage element is stored in the storage unit for each deterioration stage, so that the number of second storage elements required as replacement can be predicted based on the number of second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability. Therefore, when manufacturing replacement second storage elements, by not manufacturing more than the predicted number, it is possible to reduce CO2 emissions due to excessive manufacturing of replacement second storage elements.

[0012] (2) In the information processing device described in (1) above, the processing unit may communicate with at least one of a plurality of the first type of devices and a plurality of charging devices that charge the first storage element during the life cycle of the first storage element to tally up the number of the first storage elements that have reached each of the deterioration stages, obtain replacement information indicating the deterioration stage when the first storage element is replaced via the communication unit from an external device to which the replacement information indicating the deterioration stage when the first storage element is replaced is input, tally up the number of the first storage elements that have been replaced at that deterioration stage based on the replacement information, calculate the first replacement probability of the first storage element for each of the deterioration stages based on the respective tallying results, and store the calculated first replacement probability in the memory unit.

[0013] According to the information processing device described in (2) above, by repeatedly communicating with at least one of a plurality of first-type devices and a plurality of charging devices that charge the first storage element during the life cycle of the first storage element, the number of first storage elements that have reached each deterioration stage can be tallied. According to the information processing device described in (2) above, by acquiring replacement information from an external device, it is possible to tally up the number of first storage elements replaced at each deterioration stage. Furthermore, according to the information processing device described in (2) above, the first replacement probability can be determined for each deterioration stage based on the respective aggregation results (the number of first storage elements that have reached that deterioration stage and the number of first storage elements that have been replaced at that deterioration stage).

[0014] (3) In the information processing device described in (1) or (2) above, the memory unit further stores a second replacement probability of the first storage element being replaced due to a failure for each elapsed time period, which is divided into regular time intervals from when the use of the first storage element began, and the processing unit communicates with at least one of a plurality of the second type of devices and a plurality of the charging devices that charge the second storage elements, to tally up the number of the second storage elements that have reached each elapsed time period, predict the number of the second storage elements that will be replaced due to a failure based on the number of the second storage devices for each elapsed time period and the second replacement probability, and predict the number of the second storage elements that will be required for replacement by adding the number of the second storage elements that will be replaced due to a failure to the number of the second storage elements predicted based on the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability.

[0015] According to the information processing device described in (3) above, the number of second storage elements required for replacement can be predicted more accurately by adding the number of second storage elements to be replaced due to a failure to the number of second storage elements predicted based on the number of second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability.

[0016] (4) In an information processing device described in any one of (1) to (3) above, the processing unit may predict, for each degradation stage, the number of second storage elements that will reach that degradation stage after a predetermined time based on the operational deterioration characteristics of the first storage element and the number of second storage elements for each degradation stage, and may predict the number of second storage elements that will be required for replacement after the predetermined time based on the number of second storage elements for each degradation stage after the predetermined time and the first replacement probability.

[0017] According to the information processing device described in (4) above, based on the operational deterioration characteristics of the first storage elements and the number of second storage elements for each deterioration stage, it is possible to predict the number of second storage elements that will reach that deterioration stage after a specified time for each deterioration stage. Furthermore, according to the information processing device described in (4) above, the number of second storage elements that will be required for replacement after a predetermined time can be predicted based on the number of second storage elements after a predetermined time for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability of the first storage elements.

[0018] That is, according to the information processing device described in (4) above, in addition to predicting the number of second storage elements that will be needed for replacement, it is also possible to predict the time when they will be needed. For example, by predicting the number of second storage elements that will be replaced from the present time onwards, and predicting the number of second storage elements that will be replaced from the present time onwards after a predetermined time has elapsed, the difference can be predicted as the number of second storage elements that will be replaced from the present time until the predetermined time has elapsed. Similarly, it is also possible to predict the number of second storage elements that will be replaced from a predetermined time until another predetermined time after that. Therefore, according to the information processing device described in (4) above, it becomes possible to manufacture replacement second electric storage elements in the required number at the required time.

[0019] (5) In an information processing device described in any one of (1) to (4) above, the processing unit may provide the number of second storage elements required for replacement to a predetermined destination via the communication unit.

[0020] According to the information processing device described in (5) above, for example, if the number of replacement energy storage elements required is provided to the manufacturer of the second energy storage elements, the manufacturer can adjust the number of units to be manufactured accordingly, thereby preventing excessive production of replacement second energy storage elements. If multiple manufacturers manufacture second energy storage elements, the manufacturers can share information and adjust the number of units to be manufactured among themselves, thereby preventing excessive production of replacement second energy storage elements.

[0021] Here, even if the second energy storage element replaced due to deterioration cannot continue to be used for its original purpose, it may be possible to reuse (recycle) it for another purpose (repurposing). For example, an energy storage element mounted on a vehicle cannot continue to be used in the vehicle for safety reasons once it has deteriorated, but it may be possible to reuse it for another purpose that does not pose a safety problem. For example, energy storage elements used in energy storage facilities that store electricity generated by natural energy sources such as solar and wind power, or energy storage elements used in energy storage facilities that store electricity generated from grid power for peak shifting, do not pose a major safety problem even if they deteriorate. For this reason, energy storage elements that cannot continue to be used in a vehicle may be reused (recycled) in these energy storage facilities. A storage element that has been replaced due to a malfunction can be repaired and reused for the same purpose.

[0022] Therefore, the recipient may be a recycling company that recycles the replaced second energy storage elements or a reuse company that reuses them. If the number of second energy storage elements predicted to be replaced due to deterioration is provided to the recycling company, the recycling company can predict the number of second energy storage elements to be supplied in the future, thereby improving convenience for the recycling company. Similarly, if the number of second energy storage elements predicted to be replaced due to failure is provided to the reuse company, the reuse company can predict the number of second energy storage elements to be supplied in the future, thereby improving convenience for the reuse company.

[0023] (6) In a prediction method according to an embodiment, an information processing device stores in a memory unit a first replacement probability for replacing a first storage element used in each of a plurality of first-type devices for each deterioration stage obtained by dividing the deterioration state of a storage element into a plurality of stages, communicates with at least one of a plurality of second-type devices that use a second storage element of the same type as the first storage element or a second storage element having similar operational deterioration characteristics to the first storage element, and a plurality of charging devices that charge the second storage elements, tallying the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage, and predicts the number of the second storage elements that will be required for replacement based on the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability.

[0024] According to the prediction method described in (6) above, it is possible to reduce CO2 emissions caused by excessive production of replacement second energy storage elements.

[0025] (7) A prediction program according to an embodiment causes a computer to execute the following steps: a process of storing in a memory unit a first replacement probability of replacing a first storage element used in each of a plurality of first-type devices for each deterioration stage obtained by dividing the deterioration state of a storage element into a plurality of stages; a process of communicating with at least one of a plurality of second-type devices that use a second storage element of the same type as the first storage element or a second storage element having operational deterioration characteristics similar to the first storage element, and a plurality of charging devices that charge the second storage elements, and tallying the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage; and a process of predicting the number of the second storage elements that will be required for replacement based on the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability.

[0026] According to the prediction program described in (7) above, it is possible to reduce CO2 emissions caused by excessive production of replacement second energy storage elements.

[0027] [Details of the embodiment] The present disclosure will be described in detail with reference to the exemplary embodiments, but the present disclosure is not limited to these examples and is defined by the scope of the claims, and is intended to include all modifications within the meaning and scope of the claims. The embodiments of the present disclosure can be realized in various forms, such as an apparatus, a method, a computer program for realizing the functions of these apparatuses or methods, and a recording medium on which the computer program is recorded.

[0028] <Embodiment 1> The first embodiment will be described with reference to Figures 1 to 8. In the following description, the reference numerals of the drawings may be omitted for the same components, with some exceptions.

[0029] (1) Information processing device An information processing device 1 (an example of a computer) according to the first embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 1. The information processing device 1 is a device that predicts the number of power storage devices 2 that will be required as replacements in the future. In the first embodiment, the description will be given taking the power storage device 2 mounted on a vehicle 3 as an example. The information processing device 1 is located in a facility called a data center. The information processing device 1 is capable of communicating with a vehicle 3 equipped with a power storage device 2, a charging device 5 that charges a replaceable power storage device 2 stored in a battery station 4, a computer (an example of an external device) located in a maintenance shop 6 for the vehicle 3, a computer of a manufacturer 7 of the power storage device 2, a computer of a reuse company 8 that reuses the power storage device 2, a computer of a recycler 9 of the power storage device 2, and the like.

[0030] (2) Electrical configuration of information processing device The electrical configuration of the information processing device 1 will be described with reference to Figure 2. The information processing device 1 is a so-called personal computer or server computer, and includes a processing unit 10, a storage unit 11, a display unit 12, an operation unit 13, and a communication unit 14. The processing unit 10 has a CPU 10A and a RAM 10B. The display unit 12 is composed of a display device such as a liquid crystal display, a drive circuit for driving the display device, etc. The operation unit 13 includes a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, etc. The communication unit 14 is a communication circuit for connecting the information processing device 1 to a telecommunication line such as the Internet or a mobile communication network. The storage unit 11 stores various programs and data executed by the CPU 10A. The various programs include a prediction program.

[0031] (3) Energy storage device The energy storage device 2 will be described with reference to Fig. 1. The energy storage device 2 includes one or more energy storage elements 2A, a management unit, and a communication unit. The energy storage elements 2A are secondary batteries that can be repeatedly charged and discharged, and specifically, for example, lithium-ion secondary batteries. In the first embodiment, one energy storage device 2 includes 12 energy storage elements 2A. The management unit includes a microcomputer, various sensors, and the like, and monitors the charge / discharge current, state of charge (SOC), and state of health (SOH) of the energy storage device 2. The communication unit includes a communication circuit that enables the management unit to communicate with external devices (such as the vehicle 3 and the charging device 5), and a communication connector to which a communication cable is connected.

[0032] (4) Vehicles and charging equipment The vehicle 3 is, for example, a vehicle capable of information communication known as a connected car. The connected car is equipped with an auxiliary power storage device 2 that supplies power to various auxiliary devices. The connected car may be an electric vehicle, a hybrid vehicle, or a plug-in hybrid vehicle. The power storage device 2 may be a vehicle drive power storage device 2 that supplies power to an electric motor for driving the vehicle that is equipped in the vehicle 3.

[0033] The vehicle driving power storage device 2 mounted on an electric vehicle or a plug-in hybrid vehicle may be replaceable. In this case, when the SOC of the power storage device 2 decreases while the vehicle 3 is traveling, the vehicle 3 replaces the power storage device 2 with a replaceable power storage device 2 stored in the battery station 4 and continues traveling.

[0034] The charging device 5 has a communication unit that communicates with the information processing device 1, and a charging cable that is connected to the replaceable power storage device 2. The charging cable includes a communication cable for communicating with a management unit of the power storage device 2.

[0035] The vehicle 3 periodically communicates with the power storage device 2 to acquire various types of information related to the power storage device 2, and transmits the acquired information to the information processing device 1. The various types of information related to the power storage device 2 will be described later. When a charging cable is connected to the replaceable power storage device 2, the charging device 5 communicates with the power storage device 2 to acquire various information related to the power storage device 2, and transmits the acquired information to the information processing device 1.

[0036] Vehicle 3 does not need to be capable of information communication as long as the vehicle is an electric vehicle or a plug-in hybrid vehicle in which the power storage device 2 for driving the vehicle is charged by an external charging device. In other words, vehicle 3 does not need to be a connected car. When a charging device is connected to vehicle 3 to charge the power storage device 2 mounted on vehicle 3, the charging device may acquire various information related to power storage device 2 from vehicle 3 and transmit the information to information processing device 1.

[0037] (5) Various information about the energy storage device 3, various types of information related to the power storage device 2 will be described. The various types of information related to the power storage device 2 include acquisition source information indicating the source of the information (vehicle 3A, vehicle 3B, battery station 4A, battery station 4B, etc.), the date (year, month, and day) when the information was acquired, the model, SOC, SOH, etc. of the power storage device 2. In addition, the various types of information related to the power storage device 2 also include identification information for uniquely identifying the power storage device 2.

[0038] (6) Estimate the number of replacement energy storage devices required As shown in FIG. 1, here, the vehicle types of vehicle 3 are vehicle 3A (an example of a first type of equipment) and vehicle 3B (an example of a second type of equipment), and vehicle 3A is equipped with a first storage device 2, and vehicle 3B is equipped with a second storage device 2.

[0039] The first power storage device 2 and the second power storage device 2 are the same product (in other words, of the same type), but are installed in different vehicle models. The second power storage device 2 was introduced to the market some time later (e.g., 3 to 5 years) after the first power storage device 2 was introduced to the market. The power storage element 2A included in the first power storage device 2 is an example of a first power storage element, and the power storage element 2A included in the second power storage device 2 is an example of a second power storage element.

[0040] A minor change may be made to the vehicle 3A after a certain amount of time has passed since the initial model of the vehicle 3A was released to the market. In this case, the vehicle 3A after the minor change and the power storage device 2 mounted thereon may be considered to be a second type of device and a second power storage device. As another example, consider a case where vehicle 3A continues to be supplied to the market for several years without undergoing a model change. In this case, the replacement probability for the power storage device of vehicle 3A of the same model that will be supplied to the market several years later may be calculated based on accumulated data about vehicle 3A that was supplied to the market initially. In other words, vehicle 3A of the same model that will be supplied to the market several years later and the power storage device 2 installed therein may be considered to be a second-type device and a second power storage device.

[0041] The following describes an example of predicting the number of second storage devices 2 that will be required as replacements. Storage devices 2 may be replaced due to deterioration or due to a malfunction. The following describes the cases where replacement is due to deterioration and the case where replacement is due to a malfunction.

[0042] (6-1) Prediction of the number of second storage devices to be replaced due to deterioration The information processing device 1 predicts the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be required as replacements based on the probability of replacement due to deterioration for each deterioration stage of the first power storage device 2 (hereinafter referred to as the first replacement probability). A specific description will be given below.

[0043] (6-1-1) Aggregation of information related to the first power storage device 4 is a table that compiles information about the first power storage device 2 at the current time. Table 30 includes the SOH band, the number of first power storage devices 2 that have reached each SOH band, the number of first power storage devices 2 that have been replaced due to degradation, and the first replacement probability.

[0044] Although the charge capacity or internal resistance value is used as the SOH, the charge capacity will be used as an example here. When the charge capacity is used, the SOH is expressed as the ratio (%) of the current charge capacity to the charge capacity of an undegraded storage device 2 (in other words, a new storage device 2).

[0045] In Table 30, the range of possible SOH values (0-100%) is divided into 20 SOH bands (examples of degradation stages) by dividing it into 5% increments. 100-95% means that the SOH is greater than 95% and less than 100%, and 95-90% means that the SOH is greater than 90% and less than 95%. The same applies to other SOH bands. Here, we will explain the example of dividing into 20 SOH bands, but the number of SOH bands into which the range of possible SOH values is divided can be determined as appropriate.

[0046] The information processing device 1 repeatedly communicates with the vehicle 3 and the charging device 5 during the life cycle of the first power storage device 2 to create the table 30. Specifically, the information processing device 1 acquires various information about the power storage devices 2 supplied to the market by periodically communicating with the vehicle 3 or by communicating with the charging device 5 when the power storage device 2 is connected to the charging device 5. The power storage devices 2 referred to here include power storage devices 2 other than the first power storage device 2. The information processing device 1 determines the model of the power storage device 2 from the acquired information and tallies the number of first power storage devices 2 that have reached each SOH band.

[0047] Separately from this, the information processing device 1 acquires, from a computer at a vehicle maintenance workshop 6, replacement information indicating the SOH band when the first power storage device 2 is replaced. Specifically, when a mechanic at the maintenance workshop 6 replaces the power storage device 2 mounted on the vehicle 3, the mechanic inputs replacement information of the replaced power storage device 2 (in other words, the power storage device 2 removed from the vehicle 3 due to replacement) into the computer at the maintenance workshop 6. The replacement information includes identification information for uniquely identifying the power storage device 2, the model of the power storage device 2, the SOH, the reason for replacement, etc. Deterioration or failure is input as the reason for replacement. The computer transmits the input replacement information to the information processing device 1.

[0048] The computer at the repair shop 6 may be an OBD (On Board Diagnostics) scan tool. In this case, the OBD scan tool may communicate with the power storage device 2 to acquire identification information, model, SOH, etc., and the mechanic may input the reason for replacement into the OBD scan tool. Then, the OBD scan tool may transmit this information to the information processing device 1.

[0049] When the information processing device 1 receives the exchange information, it determines whether the replaced power storage device 2 is the first power storage device 2, and if it is the first power storage device 2, it determines whether the exchange is due to deterioration. If the exchange is due to deterioration, the information processing device 1 adds 1 to the number of units replaced due to deterioration in the SOH band to which the SOH included in the exchange information belongs. In this way, the number of first power storage devices 2 replaced due to deterioration is tallied for each SOH band.

[0050] In the example shown in Fig. 4, the number of first power storage devices 2 that have reached the 100-95% SOH band is 5000, and the number of first power storage devices 2 that have been replaced due to deterioration when the SOH was 100-95% is 0. This means that all 5000 power storage devices 2 have reached the 95-90% SOH band. The first replacement probability is calculated for each SOH band by dividing the number of units replaced due to deterioration by the number of units that reached that SOH band. In the example shown in FIG. 4, one first power storage device 2 was replaced due to deterioration when the SOH band was 95-90%. This means that of the 5000 first power storage devices 2 that reached the 95-90% SOH band, 4999 units reached the 90-85% SOH band. Since 5000 units reached the 95-90% SOH band and one of them was replaced in the 95-90% SOH band, the first replacement probability for the 95-90% SOH band is 0.02% (= 1 / 5000 × 100%).

[0051] Generally, the life cycle of a power storage device 2 is 10 to 15 years. Table 30 is updated over the life cycle of the first power storage device 2, and therefore the tabulation results change over time. When predicting the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be required as replacements, the most recent table 30 at the time of prediction is used.

[0052] FIG. 5A shows, in a histogram, the number of storage devices 2 that reached each SOH band shown in Table 30, and FIG. 5B shows, in a histogram, the number of storage devices 2 that were replaced due to deterioration in each SOH band.

[0053] (6-1-2) Aggregation of information related to the second power storage device 6 is a table in which current information about the second power storage device 2 is compiled. The information processing device 1 creates the table 31 by repeatedly communicating with the vehicle 3 and the charging device 5 during the life cycle of the second power storage device 2. Table 31 includes the SOH band, the number of second power storage devices 2 on the market, the first replacement probability of the first power storage device 2, and the predicted number of units to be replaced due to deterioration. The predicted number of units to be replaced is a value obtained by multiplying the number of second power storage devices 2 on the market by the first replacement probability of the first power storage device 2 for each SOH band. The information processing device 1 predicts the number of second power storage devices 2 to be replaced due to deterioration from the present time onwards, based on a total value (hereinafter referred to as the first total value) obtained by adding up the predicted number of units to be replaced determined for each SOH band.

[0054] (6-2) Prediction of the number of second storage devices to be replaced due to failure 7 is a table showing the replacement probability due to a failure of the first power storage device 2 (hereinafter referred to as the second replacement probability). Table 32 includes elapsed time periods obtained by dividing the time elapsed since the start of use of the first power storage device 2 into one-year intervals (an example of a fixed time interval), the number of first power storage devices 2 that have reached the elapsed time period, the number of first power storage devices 2 that have been replaced due to a failure, and the second replacement probability.

[0055] Here, because not all first power storage devices 2 start being used at the same time, the point in time at which counting the elapsed time starts varies depending on the first power storage device 2. For this reason, the information processing device 1 counts the elapsed time for each power storage device 2. For example, when the use of one first power storage device 2 starts, the information processing device 1 adds 1 to the number of devices that have reached the elapsed time zone of 0 to 1 year. Then, when the elapsed time of that first power storage device 2 reaches 1 year, the information processing device 1 adds 1 to the number of devices that have reached the elapsed time zone of 1 to 2 years. By performing this for each first power storage device 2 supplied to the market, the number of first power storage devices 2 that have reached each elapsed time zone is tallied.

[0056] The number of units replaced due to a malfunction is tallied from the replacement information received from the maintenance shop 6. Specifically, when the information processing device 1 receives the replacement information, it determines whether the replaced power storage device 2 is the first power storage device 2, and if it is the first power storage device 2, it determines whether the replacement is due to a malfunction. If the replacement is due to a malfunction, the information processing device 1 adds 1 to the number of units replaced due to a malfunction in the elapsed time period to which the elapsed time from the start of use of the power storage device 2 identified by the identification information included in the information belongs. In this way, the number of first power storage devices 2 replaced due to a malfunction is tallied for each elapsed time period. Then, the information processing device 1 calculates a second replacement probability by dividing the number of units replaced due to a failure for each elapsed time period by the number of units that have arrived in that elapsed time period.

[0057] Table 33 shown in Fig. 8 is a table in which information related to the second power storage device 2 is compiled. Table 33 includes the elapsed time period, the number of second power storage devices 2 that have reached the elapsed time period at the current time, the second replacement probability of the first power storage device 2, and the predicted number of units to be replaced due to a failure.

[0058] The number of second power storage devices 2 that have reached each elapsed time period is tallied in the same manner as for first power storage devices 2. The predicted number of replacements is found for each elapsed time period by multiplying the number of second power storage devices 2 that have reached that elapsed time period by the second replacement probability of the first power storage devices 2 for that elapsed time period. The information processing device 1 totals the predicted number of replacements found for each elapsed time period to predict the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be replaced due to a failure. Hereinafter, the total value of the predicted number of replacements found for each elapsed time period will be referred to as the second total value.

[0059] (6-3) Number of second power storage devices required as replacements after a predetermined time The information processing device 1 predicts the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be required as replacements from the present time onward by adding the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be required to be replaced due to breakdowns (second total value) to the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be required to be replaced due to deterioration (first total value). In the above example, the predicted number is 597 (=559+38).

[0060] (7) Providing information on the estimated number of second storage devices that will be required as replacements The information processing device 1 provides a predetermined recipient with the number of second power storage devices 2 that are predicted to be required as replacements. The predetermined recipients include a computer at a manufacturer 7 of the power storage devices 2, a computer at a reuse company 8 of the power storage devices 2, and a computer at a recycler 9 of the power storage devices 2. The number can be provided by any appropriate method. For example, it may be made public on the Internet or sent by email.

[0061] (8) Effects of the embodiment According to the information processing device 1 of the first embodiment, the first exchange probability of the first power storage device 2 of the same type as the second power storage device 2 is stored for each SOH band in the storage unit 11, and therefore the number of second power storage devices 2 required as replacement can be predicted based on the number of second power storage devices 2 for each SOH band and the first exchange probability. Therefore, when manufacturing replacement second power storage devices 2, by not manufacturing more than the predicted number, it is possible to suppress CO2 emissions due to excessive manufacturing of replacement second power storage devices 2.

[0062] The information processing device 1 can count the number of first power storage devices 2 that have reached each SOH band by repeatedly communicating with at least one of a plurality of vehicles 3A and a plurality of charging devices 5 that charge the first power storage devices 2 during the life cycle of the first power storage devices 2. The information processing device 1 can then count the number of first power storage elements 2 that have been replaced in each SOH band by acquiring replacement information from a computer in a maintenance shop 6. The information processing device 1 can then determine the first replacement probability for each SOH band based on the respective counting results (the number of first power storage devices 2 that have reached that SOH band and the number of first power storage devices 2 that have been replaced in that SOH band).

[0063] According to the information processing device 1, the number of second storage devices 2 required for replacement can be predicted more accurately by adding the number of second storage devices 2 to be replaced due to a failure (second total value) to the number of second storage devices 2 predicted based on the number of second storage elements 2 for each SOH band and the first replacement probability (first total value).

[0064] According to the information processing device 1, for example, if the number of power storage devices 2 required as replacements is provided to the manufacturer 7 of the second power storage devices 2, the manufacturer 7 can adjust the number of units to be manufactured accordingly, thereby preventing excessive production of replacement second power storage devices 2. If multiple manufacturers 7 manufacture second power storage devices 2, the manufacturers 7 can share information and adjust the number of units to be manufactured among themselves, thereby preventing excessive production of replacement second power storage devices 2.

[0065] The recipient may be a recycling company 9 that recycles the replaced second power storage devices 2 or a reuse company 8 that reuses the replaced second power storage devices 2. If the number of second power storage devices 2 predicted to be replaced due to deterioration (i.e., the first total value) is provided to the recycling company 9, the recycling company 9 can predict the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be supplied in the future, thereby improving the convenience of the recycling company 9. Similarly, if the number of second power storage devices 2 predicted to be replaced due to failure (i.e., the second total value) is provided to the reuse company 8, the reuse company 8 can predict the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be supplied in the future, thereby improving the convenience of the reuse company 8.

[0066] <Embodiment 2> The second embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS. In the above-described first embodiment, the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be required as replacements from the present time onward is predicted. In contrast, in the second embodiment, the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be required as replacements from the present time onward (in other words, after a predetermined time) is predicted. Here, the predetermined time is described as one year.

[0067] This will be described in detail with reference to Table 34 shown in Fig. 9. Table 34 includes the SOH band, the number of second storage devices 2 currently on the market, the number of second storage devices 2 that will reach that SOH band on the market one year from now, the first replacement probability of the first storage device 2 (probability of replacement due to deterioration), and the predicted number of second storage devices 2 to be replaced one year from now. The information processing device 1 predicts the number of second storage devices 2 that will reach the SOH band on the market in one year based on the number of second storage devices 2 currently on the market and the operational degradation characteristics of the SOH described below.

[0068] The operational degradation characteristics of the first power storage device 2 will be described with reference to Fig. 10. The operational degradation refers to the progressive decline in SOH (in other words, the progressive deterioration) that accompanies the operation of the first power storage device 2. Factors that cause the progressive decline in SOH that accompanies operation include aging degradation over time and current degradation that accompanies current application. The operational degradation characteristics refer to information that represents the correspondence relationship between SOH and time.

[0069] In Figure 10, the horizontal axis represents time and the vertical axis represents SOH. SOH decreases over time. However, the manner in which it decreases differs depending on the model of the power storage device 2. In the case of the first power storage device 2, the rate of decrease in SOH is relatively large from the point when the elapsed time is 0 (i.e., the point when the power storage device 2 is not yet deteriorated) until one year later, and thereafter the rate of decrease per year becomes smaller.

[0070] Even if the power storage devices 2 have the same SOH band, the SOH band will not necessarily remain the same one year from now. For example, among power storage devices 2 with an SOH of 95 to 90%, power storage devices 2 with an SOH close to 95% will remain in the 95 to 90% SOH band even one year from now, while power storage devices 2 close to 90% may reach the 90 to 85% SOH band after one year. The percentage of power storage devices 2 in a certain SOH band that will remain in that SOH band after one year and the percentage that will reach a lower SOH band can be determined from the shape of the graph of operational degradation characteristics.

[0071] 10, it is assumed that all power storage devices 2 in the 100-95% SOH band will reach the 95-90% SOH band after one year. It is also assumed that one-quarter of the power storage devices 2 in the 95-90% SOH band will remain in the 95-90% SOH band after one year, and three-quarters will reach the 90-85% SOH band.

[0072] In the example shown in Table 34, there are 1,000 second power storage devices 2 currently on the market with an SOH band of 100-95%. Since all of the second power storage devices 2 with an SOH band of 100-95% will reach the SOH band of 95-90% after one year, all of the 1,000 second power storage devices 2 will reach the SOH band of 95-90% after one year.

[0073] In the example shown in Table 34, the number of second power storage devices 2 currently on the market with an SOH band of 95-90% is 2000. One-quarter of the second power storage devices 2 with an SOH band of 95-90% will remain in the 95-90% SOH band even after one year, meaning that 500 devices (=2000×1 / 4) will remain in the 95-90% SOH band. Therefore, the number of units in the 95-90% SOH band one year from now is predicted to be 1,500 (= 1,000 + 500).Similar predictions are made for the other SOH bands one year from now.

[0074] Here, the number of units in the 100 to 95% SOH band one year from now is set to 500 units, which means that 500 second power storage devices 2 will be newly supplied to the market within one year. The number of second power storage devices 2 that will be newly supplied within one year can be known from the number of vehicles 3 manufactured.

[0075] The reason why the number of second storage devices 2 one year from now is predicted using the operational deterioration characteristics of the first storage device 2 rather than the operational deterioration characteristics of the second storage device 2 is that the first storage device 2 was supplied to the market before the second storage device 2, and therefore data on operational deterioration characteristics has been accumulated.

[0076] FIG. 11A shows, in a histogram, the number of second power storage devices 2 currently on the market as shown in FIG. 9, and FIG. 11B shows, in a histogram, the number one year from now.

[0077] As shown in Table 34, the information processing device 1 calculates a predicted number of replacement units by multiplying the number of second storage devices 2 that will reach the SOH band in the market one year from now by the first replacement probability of the first storage devices 2, and then sums up the calculated predicted number of replacement units to predict the number of second storage devices 2 that will need to be replaced due to deterioration one year from now. Hereinafter, the total sum of the calculated predicted number of replacement units will be referred to as a third total value.

[0078] It is also possible to predict the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be replaced due to a malfunction one year from now. Specifically, by adding one year to the time that has elapsed since the start of use of each second power storage device 2, it is possible to determine to which elapsed time period the second power storage device 2 will belong one year from now, and therefore by tallying up the number of second power storage devices 2 for each elapsed time period, it is possible to predict the number for each elapsed time period one year from now. Then, by multiplying the number of second storage devices 2 by the second replacement probability described above for each elapsed time period and summing the multiplication results, it is possible to predict the number of second storage devices 2 that will be replaced due to failure one year from now.

[0079] According to the information processing device 1 of embodiment 2, the number of second storage devices 2 one year from now can be predicted for each SOH band based on the operational deterioration characteristics of the first storage device 2 and the number of second storage devices 2 for each SOH band. Furthermore, according to the information processing device 1, based on the number of second storage devices 2 one year from now for each SOH band and the first replacement probability of the first storage device 2, it is possible to predict the number of second storage devices 2 that will be required for replacement one year from now.

[0080] That is, the information processing device 1 can predict not only the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be needed as replacements, but also the time when they will be needed. For example, by predicting the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be replaced from the present time onwards, and predicting the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be replaced one year from now, the difference can be predicted as the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be replaced from the present time until one year from now. Similarly, it is also possible to predict the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be replaced from one year from now until one year after that. Therefore, according to the information processing device 1, it becomes possible to manufacture replacement second power storage devices 2 in the required number at the required time.

[0081] <Embodiment 3> The third embodiment will be explained with reference to FIG. In the third embodiment, the number of first power storage devices 2 replaced due to deterioration in each SOH band is calculated from the cumulative replacement probability with respect to the number of devices supplied to the market. Here, the number of devices supplied to the market is assumed to be 5,000, the same as in the first embodiment.

[0082] Taking the 80 to 75% SOH band as an example, in the example shown in FIG. 4, the number of units replaced in each SOH band from 80 to 75% is as follows: 100-95% SOH range = 0 units 95-90% SOH band = 1 unit 90-85% SOH band = 3 units 85-80% SOH band = 2 units 80-75% SOH range = 50 units Therefore, as shown in Table 35 of FIG. 12, the cumulative number of first power storage devices 2 that have been replaced due to deterioration up to the 80 to 75% SOH band is 56.

[0083] 12 is a value obtained by dividing the cumulative number of first power storage devices 2 replaced due to deterioration up to each SOH band by the number of devices available in the market. For example, in the case of an SOH band of 80 to 75%, the cumulative replacement probability is 1.12% (=56 / 5000×100%).

[0084] The number of first power storage devices 2 replaced due to deterioration in each SOH band is calculated by multiplying the number of units supplied to the market by the difference between the cumulative replacement probability for that SOH band and the cumulative replacement probability for the SOH band immediately preceding that SOH band. For example, in the case of an SOH band of 65 to 60%, the number of first power storage devices 2 replaced due to deterioration can be calculated using the following formulas 1 and 2. Cumulative exchange probability difference = 81.12% - 41.12% = 40% Equation 1 Number of first power storage devices 2 replaced due to deterioration=5000 units×40%=2000 units Formula 2

[0085] As a result, the number of first power storage devices 2 replaced due to deterioration in the 65 to 60% SOH band is the same as the number shown in FIG. In other respects, the third embodiment is substantially the same as the first and second embodiments.

[0086] <Other embodiments> The present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above and illustrated in the drawings, and the following embodiments, for example, are also included within the technical scope of the present invention.

[0087] (1) In the above embodiment, the power storage device 2 is described as being mounted on the vehicle 3, but the power storage device 2 is not limited to this. For example, the power storage device 2 may be a power storage device used in a UPS (uninterruptible power supply), a power storage facility that stores power generated by natural energy, a power storage facility that stores power generated by grid power for peak shifting, or the like.

[0088] (2) In the above embodiment, the first storage battery 2 (in other words, the first storage element 2A) and the second storage battery 2 (in other words, the second storage element 2A) are the same product (i.e., the same type). In contrast, the second storage battery 2 may be a different product from the first storage battery 2 as long as the second storage battery 2 and the first storage battery 2 have similar operational degradation characteristics. Similarities in operational degradation characteristics will be described below.

[0089] The phrase "similar operational degradation characteristics" means, for example, that the difference between the SOH of the first storage power device 2 at a given time point after use of the first storage power device 2 has begun and the SOH of the second storage power device 2 at a time point after the same time point after use of the second storage power device 2 has begun is 5% or less of the SOH of the first storage power device 2 at that time point. 5% is just an example, and the percentage or less that constitutes similarity can be determined appropriately. However, in order to accurately predict the number of second storage power devices 2, a difference of 5% or less is preferable, and 3% or less is more preferable.

[0090] (3) In the above embodiment, the number of energy storage devices 2 is predicted as the number of energy storage elements 2A. Since one energy storage device 2 includes 12 energy storage elements 2A, the number of energy storage elements 2A is calculated by multiplying the number of energy storage devices 2 by 12. The unit for counting the number of energy storage elements 2A can be determined arbitrarily. For example, the number of energy storage elements 2A may be counted by the number of packs.

[0091] (4) In the above embodiment, the case where the number of power storage devices 2 to be replaced due to failure is also predicted is exemplified. However, the number of power storage devices 2 to be replaced due to failure does not have to be predicted.

[0092] (5) In the above embodiment, the electric storage element 2A is described as a lithium ion secondary battery, but the electric storage element 2A is not limited to this. For example, the electric storage element 2A may be a capacitor that involves an electrochemical reaction. [Explanation of symbols]

[0093] 1: Information processing device (an example of a computer) 2A: Energy storage element (the energy storage element included in the first energy storage device is an example of the first energy storage element, and the energy storage element included in the second energy storage device is an example of the second energy storage element) 3A: Vehicles (an example of Type 1 equipment) 3B: Vehicles (an example of second-class equipment) 5: Charging device 7: Manufacturer (example of recipient) 8: Reuse companies (example of recipients) 9: Recycling company (example of recipient) 10: Processing section 11: Storage section 14: Communications Department

Claims

1. An information processing device, a storage unit that stores a first replacement probability of replacing a first storage element used in each of a plurality of first-type devices for each deterioration stage obtained by dividing a deterioration state of the storage element into a plurality of stages; a processing unit; The Communications Department and Equipped with The processing unit communicating with at least one of a plurality of second-type devices using second storage elements of the same type as the first storage elements or second storage elements having similar operational deterioration characteristics to the first storage elements, and a plurality of charging devices that charge the second storage elements, and tallying up the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage; predicting the number of the second storage elements required for replacement based on the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability; Information processing device.

2. 2. The information processing device according to claim 1, The processing unit communicating with at least one of a plurality of the first type devices and a plurality of charging devices that charge the first storage elements during a life cycle of the first storage elements, and tallying up the number of the first storage elements that have reached each of the deterioration stages; acquiring replacement information indicating the deterioration stage when the first storage element is replaced from an external device to which the replacement information is input via the communication unit; tallying up the number of the first storage elements replaced at each deterioration stage based on the replacement information; calculating the first replacement probability of the first storage element based on each of the counting results for each of the deterioration stages; storing the determined first exchange probability in the storage unit; Information processing device.

3. 3. The information processing device according to claim 1, the storage unit further stores a second replacement probability of the first storage element being replaced due to a failure for each elapsed time period obtained by dividing an elapsed time from when use of the first storage element was started by a certain time interval; The processing unit communicating with at least one of a plurality of the second type devices and a plurality of the charging devices that charge the second storage elements, and counting the number of the second storage elements that have reached each of the elapsed time periods; predicting the number of the second storage elements to be replaced due to a failure based on the number of the second storage devices for each elapsed time period and the second replacement probability; predicting the number of the second storage elements required for replacement by adding the number of the second storage elements to be replaced due to a failure to the number of the second storage elements predicted based on the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability; Information processing device.

4. 3. The information processing device according to claim 1, The processing unit predicting, for each degradation stage, the number of the second storage elements that will reach the degradation stage after a predetermined time based on the operational deterioration characteristics of the first storage elements and the number of the second storage elements for each degradation stage; predicting the number of the second storage elements that will be required for replacement after the predetermined time based on the number of the second storage elements after the predetermined time for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability; Information processing device.

5. 3. The information processing device according to claim 1, The processing unit provides the number of the second storage elements required for replacement to a predetermined destination via the communication unit.

6. 1. A prediction method comprising: The information processing device dividing a deterioration state of the storage element into a plurality of stages, and storing a first replacement probability of replacing the first storage element used in each of the plurality of first-type devices in a storage unit for each deterioration stage; communicating with at least one of a plurality of second-type devices using second storage elements of the same type as the first storage elements or second storage elements having similar operational deterioration characteristics to the first storage elements, and a plurality of charging devices that charge the second storage elements, and tallying up the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage; a prediction method for predicting the number of the second storage elements that will be required for replacement based on the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability;

7. A prediction program, a process of storing in a storage unit a first replacement probability of replacing a first storage element used in each of a plurality of first-type devices for each of the plurality of deterioration stages obtained by dividing a deterioration state of the storage element into a plurality of stages; a process of communicating with at least one of a plurality of second-type devices using second storage elements of the same type as the first storage elements or second storage elements having similar operational deterioration characteristics to the first storage elements, and a plurality of charging devices that charge the second storage elements, and tallying up the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage; a process of predicting the number of the second storage elements required for replacement based on the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability; A prediction program that causes a computer to execute the following.

Images