Chicken loss prediction method and chicken loss prediction device

Abstract

To provide a chicken loss prediction method and a chicken loss prediction device which can calculate a predictive number of chicken losses.SOLUTION: In the chicken loss prediction method of the present invention, a computer 20 performs: a predictive poultry house inside environmental value calculation step of calculating a predictive poultry inside environmental value from an actual environmental value, an outdoor temperature, and a predictive outdoor temperature; a predictive number-of-chicken losses calculation step of calculating a predictive number of chicken losses due to the predictive poultry inside environmental value calculated in the predictive poultry house inside environmental value calculation step, from the actual environmental value and an actual number of chicken losses; and a display step of causing display means 30 to display the predictive outdoor temperature, the predictive poultry inside environmental value, and the predictive number of chicken losses.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a chicken loss prediction method and chicken loss prediction device that accumulates data on past actual environmental values ​​and actual chicken loss numbers within a chicken coop, as well as past outside air temperatures, and calculates the predicted chicken loss number using a predicted outside air temperature. [Background technology]

[0002] In broiler production in Japan, the rate at which imported chicks are raised to the point of being ready for shipping is 96%, and 4.2% of the total number of broilers (approximately 27 million birds) are discarded due to some kind of disease or disorder, resulting in a huge loss. Patent Document 1 relates to a control method in which sensors detect the outside air temperature and the CO2 concentration inside the poultry house, and a controller inserts the CO2 concentration values ​​into a predetermined regression equation, detects, compares, and judges the difference from a reference CO2 concentration Q (ppm), and increases or decreases the ventilation volume via the controller to maintain the CO2 concentration inside the poultry house at the reference CO2 concentration. Patent Document 2 relates to a method for estimating the mortality rate of chickens from the egg production of the chickens, that is, an automatic mortality rate estimation method that uses the egg production rate and egg weight for each specified period as parameters and estimates that the mortality rate is high when the specified egg weight falls below the marginal production amount. Patent Document 3 relates to an environmental control system that installs sensors for wind speed, temperature and humidity, lighting, ammonia gas concentration, etc. in an open-type chicken coop, compares the values ​​detected by the sensors with preset control program values, and controls the operation of control devices such as curtain opening and closing drives. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2-195832 [Patent Document 2] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2006-51000 [Patent Document 3] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 11-225599 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] Many of the causes of diseases and disorders in broilers are triggered by environmental factors in the poultry house, but until now, no attempt has been made to predict the impact of actual environmental values ​​within the poultry house on the number of chickens lost.

[0005] An object of the present invention is to provide a chicken loss prediction method and a chicken loss prediction device that can calculate the predicted number of chickens lost. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] The chicken loss prediction method of the present invention as set forth in claim 1 is a chicken loss prediction method that accumulates data on actual environmental values ​​and actual number of chicken losses within a chicken house (10) over a predetermined period in the past, and data on outside air temperatures over the predetermined period in the past, and calculates the predicted number of chicken losses using the predicted outside air temperature, and is characterized in that the computer (20) executes an in-house predicted environmental value calculation step of calculating a predicted in-house environmental value from the actual environmental value, the outside air temperature, and the predicted outside air temperature; a predicted number of chicken losses calculation step of calculating the predicted number of chicken losses based on the in-house predicted environmental value calculated in the predicted in-house environmental value calculation step, from the actual environmental value and the actual number of chicken losses; and a display step of displaying the predicted outside air temperature, the predicted in-house environmental value, and the predicted number of chicken losses on a display means (30). The present invention of claim 2 is characterized in that, in the chicken loss prediction method of claim 1, when a set environmental value is input by input means 40, the predicted number of chicken losses is calculated using the set environmental value instead of the predicted environmental value in the chicken house in the predicted number of chicken losses calculation step, and the predicted number of chicken losses calculated using the set environmental value is displayed in the display step. The present invention as set forth in claim 3 is the chicken loss prediction method as set forth in claim 1, characterized in that the input means 40 inputs the date of chicks entering, the number of chicks entered, and the actual number of chicks lost, and calculates the predicted number of chicks lost using the actual number of surviving chicks obtained by subtracting the actual number of chicks lost after the chick entering date from the number of chicks entered. The present invention as set forth in claim 4 is the chicken loss prediction method as set forth in claim 1, characterized in that the input means 40 inputs the date of chicks entering, the number of chicks entered, and the actual number of chicks lost, and calculates the predicted number of chicks lost as a percentage using the actual number of surviving chicks, which is the number of chicks entered minus the actual number of chicks lost after the chick entering date, as a modulus. The present invention of claim 5 is characterized in that, in the chicken loss prediction method of claim 1, the predicted poultry house environmental values ​​calculated in the predicted poultry house environmental value calculation step include at least a predicted poultry house environmental value for the current day calculated from a predicted outside air temperature for the current day and a predicted poultry house environmental value for the next day calculated from a predicted outside air temperature for the next day, and the predicted number of chickens lost calculated in the predicted number of chickens lost step include at least a predicted number of chickens lost for the current day calculated from the predicted poultry house environmental value for the current day and a predicted number of chickens lost for the next day calculated from the predicted poultry house environmental value for the next day, and the display step displays at least the predicted outside air temperature for the current day, the predicted poultry house environmental value for the current day, the predicted number of chickens lost for the current day, the predicted outside air temperature for the next day, the predicted poultry house environmental value for the next day, and the predicted number of chickens lost for the next day. The present invention of claim 6 is the chicken loss prediction method of claim 1, characterized in that the step of calculating the predicted number of lost chickens uses a multiple regression equation according to the age of the chickens in weeks. The present invention of claim 7 is characterized in that in the chicken loss prediction method of claim 1, the step of calculating the predicted environmental value in the chicken house and the step of calculating the predicted number of chicken losses are performed by machine learning. The present invention of claim 8 is characterized in that in the chicken loss prediction method of claim 1, the actual environmental values ​​and the predicted environmental values ​​inside the chicken house are the temperature inside the chicken house and the humidity inside the chicken house. The present invention of claim 9 is characterized in that in the chicken loss prediction method of claim 2, the computer 20 executes an equipment operation instruction step of issuing equipment operation instructions to the poultry house environment adjustment equipment 50 based on the inputted set environmental values. The present invention of claim 10 is characterized in that in the chicken loss prediction method of claim 9, in the equipment operation instruction step, if the set environmental value is not input, the equipment operation instruction is given based on the predicted environmental value in the poultry house. The chicken loss prediction device of the present invention described in claim 11 is a chicken loss prediction device that accumulates data on actual environmental values ​​and actual number of chickens lost within a chicken house (10) over a predetermined period in the past, and outside air temperatures over the predetermined period in the past, and calculates the predicted number of chickens lost using the predicted outside air temperature, and is characterized in that the computer (20) has: an in-house predicted environmental value calculation unit (23) that calculates a predicted in-house environmental value from the actual environmental value, the outside air temperature, and the predicted outside air temperature; a predicted number of chickens lost calculation unit (24) that calculates the predicted number of chickens lost based on the predicted in-house environmental value calculated by the in-house predicted environmental value calculation unit (23) from the actual environmental value and the actual number of chickens lost; and a display data extraction unit (25) that extracts the predicted outside air temperature, the predicted in-house environmental value, and the predicted number of chickens lost, and displays them on a display means (30). The present invention of claim 12 is characterized in that, in the chicken loss prediction device of claim 11, when a set environmental value is input by input means 40, the predicted number of lost chickens calculation unit 24 calculates the predicted number of lost chickens using the set environmental value instead of the predicted environmental value within the chicken house, and the display means 30 displays the predicted number of lost chickens calculated using the set environmental value. The present invention of claim 13 is characterized in that, in the chicken loss prediction device of claim 11, the predicted number of lost chickens is calculated using the actual number of surviving chickens obtained by subtracting the actual number of lost chickens after the date of chick entry from the number of chicks entered. The present invention of claim 14 is characterized in that, in the chicken loss prediction device of claim 11, the predicted number of lost chickens is calculated as a percentage using the number of actually surviving chickens, which is the number of chicks entered minus the actual number of lost chickens after the day of entering the chicks, as a modulus. The present invention of claim 15 is characterized in that, in the chicken loss prediction device of claim 11, the predicted environmental values ​​calculated by the predicted environmental value calculation unit 23 include at least a predicted environmental value inside the chicken house for the current day calculated from a predicted outside air temperature for the current day and a predicted environmental value inside the chicken house for the next day calculated from a predicted outside air temperature for the next day, and the predicted number of lost chickens calculated by the predicted number of lost chickens calculation unit 24 include at least a predicted number of lost chickens for the current day calculated from the predicted environmental value inside the chicken house for the current day and a predicted number of lost chickens for the next day calculated from the predicted environmental value inside the chicken house for the next day, and the display means 30 displays at least the predicted outside air temperature for the current day, the predicted environmental value inside the chicken house for the current day, the predicted number of lost chickens for the current day, the predicted outside air temperature for the next day, the predicted environmental value inside the chicken house for the next day, and the predicted number of lost chickens for the next day. The present invention of claim 16 is characterized in that, in the chicken loss prediction device of claim 11, the predicted number of lost chickens calculation unit 24 performs calculations using a multiple regression equation according to the age of the chickens in weeks. The present invention of claim 17 is characterized in that, in the chicken loss prediction device of claim 11, the predicted environment value calculation unit 23 within the chicken house and the predicted number of lost chickens calculation unit 24 are performed by machine learning. The present invention of claim 18 is characterized in that, in the chicken loss prediction device of claim 11, the actual environmental values ​​and the predicted environmental values ​​within the chicken house are the temperature within the chicken house and the humidity within the chicken house. The present invention of claim 19 is characterized in that, in the chicken loss prediction device of claim 12, the computer 20 has an equipment operation instruction unit 26 that issues equipment operation instructions to the poultry house environment adjustment equipment 50 based on the input set environmental values. The present invention of claim 20 is characterized in that in the chicken loss prediction device of claim 19, the equipment operation instruction unit 26 issues the equipment operation instruction based on the predicted environment value in the chicken house when the set environment value is not input. [Effects of the Invention]

[0007] According to the present invention, predicted environmental values ​​within the poultry house are calculated from actual environmental values ​​and outdoor air temperatures over a specified period of time in the past and predicted outdoor air temperatures, and the predicted number of feathers lost is calculated and displayed based on the predicted environmental values ​​within the poultry house from the actual environmental values ​​and actual number of feathers lost over a specified period of time in the past.This makes it possible to know in advance the days when the number of feathers lost will be high, and to change the environmental values ​​within the poultry house so as to reduce the number of feathers lost. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0008] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a flow diagram illustrating a method for predicting chicken loss according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 2] A block diagram showing the function realization means of the chicken loss prediction device according to the present embodiment. [Figure 3] FIG. 1 shows a multiple regression equation that can be used to calculate the predicted number of feathers lost in the present invention. [Figure 4] Graph showing the multiple regression equations for the first and second weeks shown in Figure 3 [Figure 5] Graph showing the multiple regression equations for the third and fourth weeks shown in Figure 3 [Figure 6] Graph showing the multiple regression equation for the fifth and sixth weeks shown in Figure 3 [Figure 7] Graph showing the multiple regression equation for the seventh week shown in Figure 3 [Figure 8A] A diagram showing a multiple regression equation when carbon dioxide parameters are further used. [Figure 8B] A diagram showing a multiple regression equation when carbon dioxide parameters are further used. [Figure 8C] A diagram showing a multiple regression equation when carbon dioxide parameters are further used. [Figure 8D] A diagram showing a multiple regression equation when carbon dioxide parameters are further used. [Figure 8E] A diagram showing a multiple regression equation when carbon dioxide parameters are further used. [Figure 8F] A diagram showing a multiple regression equation when carbon dioxide parameters are further used. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0009] A chicken loss prediction method according to a first embodiment of the present invention executes the following steps: a predicted intra-house environmental value calculation step in which a computer calculates a predicted intra-house environmental value from an actual environmental value, an outside air temperature, and a predicted outside air temperature; a predicted number of chicken losses calculation step in which a computer calculates a predicted number of chicken losses based on the predicted intra-house environmental value calculated in the predicted intra-house environmental value calculation step from the actual environmental value and the actual number of chicken losses; and a display step in which a display means displays the predicted outside air temperature, the predicted intra-house environmental value, and the predicted number of chicken losses. According to this embodiment, by calculating the predicted intra-house environmental value from the actual environmental value, the outside air temperature, and the predicted outside air temperature over a predetermined period of time in the past, and calculating and displaying the predicted number of chicken losses based on the predicted intra-house environmental value from the actual environmental value and the actual number of chicken losses over the predetermined period of time in the past, it is possible to identify days when the number of chicken losses will be high and to change the intra-house environmental value to reduce the number of chicken losses.

[0010] In the second embodiment of the present invention, when a set environmental value is input by the input means in the chicken loss prediction method according to the first embodiment, the predicted number of chicken losses is calculated using the set environmental value instead of the predicted in-house environmental value in the predicted chicken loss calculation step, and the predicted number of chicken losses calculated using the set environmental value is displayed in the display step. This embodiment makes it possible to grasp the in-house environmental values ​​that can reduce the number of chicken losses.

[0011] In the third embodiment of the present invention, in the chicken loss prediction method according to the first embodiment, the input means inputs the date of chicks entering, the number of chicks entering, and the actual number of chicks lost, and the predicted number of chicks lost is calculated using the actual number of surviving chicks, which is the number of chicks entering minus the actual number of chicks lost after the chick entering date. According to this embodiment, the predicted number of chicks lost can be accurately determined as an actual value, especially in the later stages of the rearing period.

[0012] In the fourth embodiment of the present invention, in the chicken loss prediction method according to the first embodiment, the date of chicks entering, the number of chicks entering, and the actual number of chicks lost are inputted into the input means, and the predicted number of chicks lost is calculated as a percentage using the number of actual surviving chicks, which is the number of chicks entering minus the actual number of chicks lost after the chick entering date, as a modulus. According to this embodiment, the predicted number of chicks lost can be accurately determined as a ratio, especially in the later stages of the rearing period.

[0013] A fifth embodiment of the present invention is the same as the first embodiment in that the predicted in-house environmental value calculation step calculates at least a predicted in-house environmental value calculated from a predicted outside air temperature of the day and a predicted in-house environmental value calculated from a predicted outside air temperature of the next day, the predicted number of chicken losses calculated in the predicted number of chicken losses calculation step includes at least a predicted number of chickens lost for the day calculated from the predicted in-house environmental value of the day and a predicted number of chickens lost for the next day calculated from the predicted in-house environmental value of the next day, and the display step displays at least the predicted outside air temperature of the day, the predicted in-house environmental value of the day, the predicted number of chickens lost for the day, the predicted outside air temperature of the next day, the predicted in-house environmental value of the next day, and the predicted number of chickens lost for the next day. According to this embodiment, by being able to grasp at least the predicted number of chickens lost for the day and the predicted number of chickens lost for the next day, the number of chickens lost can be further reduced.

[0014] In a sixth embodiment of the present invention, in the chicken loss prediction method according to the first embodiment, the step of calculating the predicted number of chicken losses uses a multiple regression equation according to the age of the chickens in weeks. According to this embodiment, environmental factors according to the age of the chickens in weeks can be reflected, and the number of chicken losses can be reduced.

[0015] In the seventh embodiment of the present invention, the steps of calculating predicted environmental values ​​in the poultry house and calculating the predicted number of lost chickens are performed by machine learning in the chicken loss prediction method according to the first embodiment. According to this embodiment, the number of lost chickens can be determined more accurately as the amount of accumulated data increases.

[0016] The eighth embodiment of the present invention uses the temperature and humidity inside the poultry house as the actual environmental values ​​and the predicted environmental values ​​inside the poultry house in the chicken loss prediction method according to the first embodiment. This embodiment makes it possible to reduce chicken loss by using environmental factors with a large impact, and also reduces the burden on producers because the temperature and humidity inside the poultry house are easy to adjust.

[0017] In the ninth embodiment of the present invention, in the chicken loss prediction method according to the second embodiment, a computer executes an equipment operation instruction step in which the computer issues equipment operation instructions to the poultry house environment adjustment equipment based on the input environmental values. According to this embodiment, when the predicted number of chicken losses is high, the computer can issue equipment operation instructions based on the poultry house environmental values ​​that can reduce the number of chicken losses.

[0018] A tenth embodiment of the present invention is a chicken loss prediction method according to the ninth embodiment, in which, in the equipment operation instruction step, if a set environmental value is not input, equipment operation instructions are given based on predicted environmental values ​​in the poultry house. According to this embodiment, when the predicted number of chicken losses is small, equipment operation instructions can be given based on predicted environmental values ​​in the poultry house that are under normal management conditions.

[0019] A chicken loss prediction method according to an eleventh embodiment of the present invention includes a computer having an in-house predicted environmental value calculation unit that calculates a predicted in-house environmental value from an actual environmental value, an outside air temperature, and a predicted outside air temperature, a predicted number of chicken losses calculation unit that calculates a predicted number of chicken losses based on the predicted in-house environmental value calculated by the predicted in-house environmental value calculation unit from the actual environmental value and the actual number of chicken losses, and a display data extraction unit that extracts the predicted outside air temperature, the predicted in-house environmental value, and the predicted number of chicken losses to display on a display means. According to this embodiment, by calculating the predicted in-house environmental value from the actual environmental value, the outside air temperature, and the predicted outside air temperature over a predetermined period of the past, and calculating and displaying the predicted number of chicken losses based on the predicted in-house environmental value from the actual environmental value and the actual number of chicken losses over the predetermined period of the past, it is possible to identify days when the number of chicken losses will be high and to change the in-house environmental value to reduce the number of chicken losses.

[0020] The twelfth embodiment of the present invention is the method for predicting chicken loss according to the eleventh embodiment, in which when set environmental values ​​are input by the input means, the predicted number of chicken losses calculation unit calculates the predicted number of chicken losses using the set environmental values ​​instead of the predicted in-house environmental values, and the display means displays the predicted number of chicken losses calculated using the set environmental values. According to this embodiment, it is possible to grasp the in-house environmental values ​​that can reduce the number of chicken losses.

[0021] The thirteenth embodiment of the present invention is a chicken loss prediction method according to the eleventh embodiment, in which the predicted number of lost chickens is calculated using the actual number of surviving chickens obtained by subtracting the actual number of lost chickens after the chick-entry date from the number of chicks entered. According to this embodiment, the predicted number of lost chickens can be accurately determined as an actual value, especially in the later stages of the rearing period.

[0022] The 14th embodiment of the present invention is a chicken loss prediction method according to the 11th embodiment, in which the predicted number of chicken losses is calculated as a percentage using the number of actual surviving chickens, which is the number of chicks entered minus the number of actual losses after the chick entry date, as a modulus. According to this embodiment, the predicted number of chicken losses can be accurately determined as a ratio, especially in the later stages of the rearing period.

[0023] A fifteenth embodiment of the present invention is the chicken loss prediction method according to the eleventh embodiment, wherein the predicted in-house environmental values ​​calculated by the predicted in-house environmental value calculation unit include at least a predicted in-house environmental value for the current day calculated from the predicted outside air temperature for the current day and a predicted in-house environmental value for the next day calculated from the predicted outside air temperature for the next day, the predicted number of lost chickens calculated by the predicted chicken house calculation unit include at least a predicted number of lost chickens for the current day calculated from the predicted in-house environmental value for the current day and a predicted number of lost chickens for the next day calculated from the predicted in-house environmental value for the next day, and the display means displays at least the predicted outside air temperature for the current day, the predicted in-house environmental value for the current day, the predicted number of lost chickens for the current day, the predicted outside air temperature for the next day, the predicted in-house environmental value for the next day, and the predicted number of lost chickens for the next day. According to this embodiment, by being able to grasp at least the predicted number of lost chickens for the current day and the predicted number of lost chickens for the next day, the number of lost chickens can be further reduced.

[0024] The 16th embodiment of the present invention is a chicken loss prediction method according to the 11th embodiment, in which the predicted number of lost chickens calculation unit calculates the number of lost chickens using a multiple regression equation according to the age of the chickens in weeks. According to this embodiment, it is possible to reflect environmental factors according to the age of the chickens in weeks, and to reduce the number of lost chickens.

[0025] In the 17th embodiment of the present invention, the calculation unit for the predicted environmental value in the poultry house and the calculation unit for the predicted number of lost chickens in the method for predicting chicken loss according to the 11th embodiment are implemented by machine learning. According to this embodiment, the number of lost chickens can be determined more accurately as the amount of accumulated data increases.

[0026] The 18th embodiment of the present invention is a chicken loss prediction method according to the 11th embodiment, in which the actual environmental values ​​and predicted environmental values ​​within the poultry house are the temperature and humidity within the poultry house. This embodiment makes it possible to reduce chicken loss by using environmental factors with a large impact, and also reduces the burden on producers because the temperature and humidity within the poultry house are easy to adjust.

[0027] In a 19th embodiment of the present invention, in the method for predicting chicken loss according to the 12th embodiment, the computer includes an equipment operation instruction unit that issues equipment operation instructions to the poultry house environment adjustment equipment based on input environmental values. According to this embodiment, when the predicted number of chicken losses is high, the equipment operation instructions can be issued based on the poultry house environmental values ​​that can reduce the number of chicken losses.

[0028] The 20th embodiment of the present invention is a poultry loss prediction method according to the 19th embodiment, in which the equipment operation instruction unit instructs equipment operation based on predicted environmental values ​​within the poultry house when set environmental values ​​are not input. According to this embodiment, when the predicted number of chicken losses is small, equipment operation instructions can be given based on predicted environmental values ​​within the poultry house that are under normal management conditions. [Example]

[0029] A chicken loss prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention will now be described with reference to the accompanying drawings. FIG. 1 is a flow chart showing a chicken loss prediction method according to this embodiment. The computer 20 (see FIG. 2) executes a step (S1) of calculating predicted environmental values ​​in the poultry house, a step (S2) of calculating predicted number of lost chickens, and a display step (S3). In the step (S1) of calculating predicted environmental values ​​inside the poultry house, predicted environmental values ​​inside the poultry house are calculated from actual environmental values, outdoor air temperature, and predicted outdoor air temperature in a predetermined period of time in the past inside the poultry house 10 (see FIG. 2). Data on actual environmental values ​​within the poultry house 10 and outdoor air temperatures for a predetermined period of time in the past, along with the actual number of chickens lost for that period, are stored in the memory unit 27 (see FIG. 2). Here, the predetermined period of time in the past is a period including at least one season, preferably including multiple seasons, more preferably a period of one year or more, and even more preferably multiple years. For the outdoor air temperature and predicted outdoor air temperature for the predetermined period of time in the past, weather data provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency, for example, can be used. However, weather data provided by the National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO) mesh agricultural weather data or other organizations can also be used. Furthermore, for the outdoor air temperature for the predetermined period of time in the past, not only publicly available weather data but also observed weather data measured by individual measuring devices outside a specific section or outside the poultry house 10 can be used. The outdoor air temperature and predicted outdoor air temperature can be obtained as communication data via wired or wireless lines, or by input from a measuring device. Furthermore, as the outside air temperature or predicted outside air temperature, it is preferable to use at least one of the average temperature, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature for one day, and the temperature by time of day may also be used.

[0030] In the step (S2) of calculating the predicted number of feathers lost, the predicted number of feathers lost based on the predicted environmental values ​​within the poultry house calculated in the step (S1) of calculating the predicted environmental values ​​within the poultry house is calculated from the actual environmental values ​​and the actual number of feathers lost. In the step (S2) of calculating the predicted number of lost chicks, it is preferable to use the date of chick arrival, the number of chicks arrived, and the actual number of lost chicks, which are inputted by the input means 40 (see FIG. 2). By using the chick arrival date, a multiple regression equation according to the chicken's age in weeks can be used in the step (S2) of calculating the predicted number of chickens lost. By using a multiple regression equation according to the chicken's age in weeks in the step (S2) of calculating the predicted number of chickens lost, environmental factors according to the chicken's age in weeks can be reflected, and the number of chickens lost can be reduced.

[0031] By using the number of chicks received and the actual number of chicks lost, in the step (S2) of calculating the predicted number of chicks lost, the predicted number of chicks lost can be calculated using the actual number of surviving chicks, which is the number of chicks received minus the actual number of chicks lost after the chick receiving date, and the predicted number of chicks lost can be accurately determined as an actual value, especially in the later stages of the rearing period. Furthermore, by using the number of chicks received and the actual number of chicks lost, in the step (S2) of calculating the predicted number of chicks lost, the predicted number of chicks lost can be calculated as a percentage using the actual number of surviving chicks, which is the number of chicks received minus the actual number of chicks lost after the chick receiving date, as the denominator, and the accurate predicted number of chicks lost can be determined as a ratio, especially in the later stages of the rearing period. In the display step (S3), the display means 30 (see FIG. 2) is caused to display the predicted outside temperature, predicted environment values ​​inside the poultry house, and predicted number of chickens lost.

[0032] The predicted environmental values ​​calculated in the step (S1) of calculating predicted environmental values ​​in the poultry house include at least the predicted environmental value in the poultry house for that day calculated from the predicted outside air temperature for that day and the predicted environmental value in the poultry house for the next day calculated from the predicted outside air temperature for the next day, and the predicted number of chickens lost calculated in the step (S2) of calculating predicted number of chickens lost include at least the predicted number of chickens lost for that day calculated from the predicted environmental value in the poultry house for that day and the predicted number of chickens lost the next day calculated from the predicted environmental value in the poultry house for the next day, and in the display step (S3) at least the predicted outside air temperature for that day, the predicted environmental value in the poultry house for that day, the predicted number of chickens lost for that day, the predicted outside air temperature for the next day, the predicted environmental value in the poultry house for the next day, and the predicted number of chickens lost the next day are displayed, thereby allowing the user to grasp at least the predicted number of chickens lost for that day and the predicted number of chickens lost the next day, and further reducing the number of chickens lost. Furthermore, the step of calculating predicted environmental values ​​in the poultry house (S1) and the step of calculating predicted number of lost chickens (S2) may be performed by machine learning. In this case, the number of lost chickens can be determined more accurately as the amount of accumulated data increases. It is preferable to use the temperature and humidity inside the poultry house as the actual environmental values ​​and predicted environmental values ​​inside the poultry house. By using environmental factors that have a large impact, it is possible to reduce the number of chickens lost, and since the temperature and humidity inside the poultry house are easy to adjust, it is possible to reduce the burden on producers. Furthermore, CO2 concentration can also be used as the actual environmental value and the predicted in-house environmental value. When CO2 concentration is used as the actual environmental value and the predicted in-house environmental value, at least one of the average carbon dioxide concentration (average CO2), maximum carbon dioxide concentration (maximum CO2), minimum carbon dioxide concentration (minimum CO2), the difference between the maximum and minimum carbon dioxide concentrations (CO2diff), and the sum of the maximum and minimum carbon dioxide concentrations (CO2plus) can be used.

[0033] In the display step (S3), if the predicted number of chicken losses is high (Yes in S4), the operator can input a set environmental value (S5) using the input means 40 (see FIG. 2). Here, the set environmental value is the temperature and humidity inside the poultry house set by the operator, and may also include CO2 concentration. For the temperature inside the poultry house, it is preferable to be able to set one of the average temperature, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature, and it is also preferable to be able to set the temperature for each time period by dividing 24 hours into multiple sections. For the humidity inside the poultry house, it is preferable to be able to set one of the average humidity, maximum humidity, and minimum humidity, and it is also preferable to be able to set the humidity for each time period by dividing 24 hours into multiple sections. When the set environmental values ​​are input using the input means 40, in the predicted number of lost feathers calculation step (S2), the predicted number of lost feathers is calculated using the set environmental values ​​instead of the predicted environmental values ​​within the chicken house, and in the display step (S3), the predicted number of lost feathers calculated using the set environmental values ​​is displayed. In this way, by calculating and displaying the predicted number of chicken losses using the set environmental values, it is possible to grasp the environmental values ​​within the poultry house that can reduce the number of chicken losses.

[0034] In the display step (S3), if the predicted number of feathers lost is small (No in S4), the operator inputs an execution command instead of inputting the setting environment value, and the computer 20 executes the equipment operation instruction step (S6). In the equipment operation instruction step (S6), equipment operation instructions are given to the poultry house environment adjustment equipment 50 (see FIG. 2) based on the predicted poultry house environment values ​​calculated in S1. Furthermore, if the set environmental values ​​are input in S5 and the predicted number of lost chickens calculated using the set environmental values ​​is small, then in the equipment operation instruction step (S6), equipment operation instructions are given to the poultry house environment adjustment equipment 50 based on the input set environmental values. In this way, in S6, when the predicted number of lost birds is small, instructions for operating the equipment can be given based on the predicted environmental values ​​within the poultry house under normal management conditions, and when the predicted number of lost birds is large, instructions for operating the equipment can be given based on environmental values ​​within the poultry house that can reduce the number of lost birds.

[0035] As described above, the chicken loss prediction method of this embodiment accumulates data on past actual environmental values ​​and actual number of chickens lost within the chicken coop 10, as well as past outside air temperatures, and calculates the predicted number of chickens lost using the predicted outside air temperature.The predicted environmental value within the chicken coop is calculated from the actual environmental value and outside air temperature and the predicted outside air temperature over a predetermined period of the past, and the predicted number of chickens lost based on the predicted environmental value within the chicken coop is calculated and displayed from the actual environmental value and actual number of chickens lost over a predetermined period of the past, making it possible to know in advance the days when the number of chickens lost will be high and to change the environmental value within the chicken coop to reduce the number of chickens lost.

[0036] FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the function realization means of the chicken loss prediction device according to this embodiment. Within poultry house 10, temperature detection means 11, humidity detection means 12, and CO2 detection means 13 are provided as means for detecting environmental values ​​within the poultry house. Temperature detection means 11 detects the temperature within poultry house 10, humidity detection means 12 detects the humidity within poultry house 10, and CO2 detection means 13 detects the CO2 concentration within poultry house 10. Multiple temperature detection means 11, humidity detection means 12, and CO2 detection means 13 are arranged within poultry house 10, and detect the environmental values ​​within the poultry house at predetermined intervals.

[0037] The computer 20 has an in-chicken house environmental value receiving unit 21, a weather information receiving unit 22, an in-chicken house predicted environmental value calculating unit 23, a predicted number of lost chickens calculating unit 24, a display data extracting unit 25, an equipment operation instruction unit 26, and a memory unit 27. Poultry house environment value receiving unit 21 receives the poultry house environment values ​​from temperature detection means 11, humidity detection means 12, and CO2 detection means 13. The weather information receiving unit 22 receives weather information related to predicted outside air temperatures. As weather information related to predicted outside air temperatures, for example, weather data provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency, agricultural weather data from the National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO), or weather data provided by other organizations can be used. Regarding the outside air temperature for a predetermined period in the past, the weather information received by the weather information receiving unit 22 can be used, but observed weather data measured by individual measuring devices outside a specific section or outside the poultry house 10 can also be used. The predicted environment value calculation unit 23 calculates the predicted environment value inside the poultry house from the actual environment value in the poultry house 10 for a predetermined period in the past, the outdoor air temperature for a predetermined period in the past, and the predicted outdoor air temperature. The predicted number of lost feathers calculation unit 24 calculates the predicted number of lost feathers based on the predicted environmental values ​​within the poultry house calculated by the predicted environmental value within the poultry house calculation unit 23 from the actual environmental values ​​and actual number of lost feathers within the poultry house 10 over a specified period in the past. The display data extraction unit 25 extracts the predicted outside temperature, predicted environment values ​​inside the poultry house, and predicted number of chickens lost to be displayed on the display means 30. The equipment operation instruction unit 26 issues equipment operation instructions to the poultry house environment adjustment equipment 50. If no set environmental value is input, the equipment operation instruction unit 26 issues equipment operation instructions based on the predicted environmental value within the chicken coop, and if a set environmental value is input, it issues equipment operation instructions based on the input set environmental value. Therefore, when the predicted number of lost birds is small, instructions for operating the equipment can be given based on predicted environmental values ​​within the poultry house under normal management conditions, and when the predicted number of lost birds is large, instructions for operating the equipment can be given based on environmental values ​​within the poultry house that can reduce the number of lost birds.

[0038] Memory unit 27 stores data on actual environmental values ​​and actual number of lost chickens within poultry house 10 over a predetermined period in the past, as well as data on outside air temperatures over a predetermined period in the past. Memory unit 27 also stores the in-house environmental values ​​received by in-house environmental value receiving unit 21, the predicted outside air temperature received by weather information receiving unit 22, and the date of chicks entry, number of chicks entered, actual number of lost chickens, and set environmental values ​​input by input means 40. Memory unit 27 also stores the predicted in-house environmental values ​​calculated by predicted in-house environmental value calculating unit 23, and the predicted number of lost chickens calculated by predicted number of lost chickens calculating unit 24. Furthermore, it is preferable that the storage unit 27 stores a multiple regression equation according to the age of the chickens in weeks, which is used for calculation in the predicted number of chickens lost calculation unit 24. By calculating the predicted number of chickens lost using a multiple regression equation according to the age of the chickens in weeks, it is possible to reflect environmental factors according to the age of the chickens in weeks, and to reduce the number of chickens lost.

[0039] The display means 30 displays the predicted outside temperature, predicted environment values ​​inside the poultry house, and predicted number of chickens lost. 2, the predicted outside temperature, predicted poultry house environmental values, and predicted number of chickens lost for three days (today, the next day, and the day after) are displayed on display means 30. Here, today refers to the day on which the environmental values ​​are set, and may be today or a day after today. The number of chickens lost that is the subject of the present invention is either the number of dead chickens or the number of culls, or both the number of dead chickens and the number of culls. Here, the number of dead chickens is the number of chickens that have died, and the number of culls is the number of chickens that are deemed to be weak and unable to grow and are therefore abandoned for further rearing. Since most chickens that die or are subject to culling gradually weaken, it is preferable to set the environment for a specified period. Therefore, it is preferable that the display means 30 not only displays the predicted outside temperature, predicted environmental values ​​inside the poultry house, and predicted number of chickens lost for the current day, but also displays the environment for two days, four days, or more. As shown in Figure 2, when displaying the predicted outside temperature, predicted environment value inside the poultry house, and predicted number of chickens lost for three days, the current day, the next day, and the day after that, the predicted environment value inside the poultry house calculation unit 23 calculates the predicted environment value inside the poultry house for the current day calculated from the predicted outside temperature of the current day, the predicted environment value inside the poultry house for the next day calculated from the predicted outside temperature of the next day, and the predicted environment value inside the poultry house for the day after that calculated from the predicted outside temperature of the day after that. Then, the predicted number of lost feathers calculation unit 24 calculates the predicted number of lost feathers for that day calculated using the predicted environmental values ​​in the chicken house for that day, the predicted number of lost feathers for the next day calculated using the predicted environmental values ​​in the chicken house for the next day, and the predicted number of lost feathers for the day after that calculated using the predicted environmental values ​​in the chicken house for the day after that.

[0040] In this way, the display means 30 can display the predicted outside temperature for that day, the predicted environmental value inside the chicken house for that day, the predicted number of chickens lost for that day, the predicted outside temperature for the next day, the predicted environmental value inside the chicken house for the next day, the predicted number of chickens lost for the next day, the predicted outside temperature for the day after that, the predicted environmental value inside the chicken house for the day after that, and the predicted number of chickens lost for the day after that. In this way, the predicted environmental values ​​inside the poultry house calculated by the predicted environmental value calculation unit 23 include at least the predicted environmental value inside the poultry house for that day calculated from the predicted outside air temperature for that day and the predicted environmental value inside the poultry house for the next day calculated from the predicted outside air temperature for the next day, and the predicted number of lost chickens calculated by the predicted number of lost chickens calculation unit 24 include at least the predicted number of lost chickens for that day calculated from the predicted environmental value inside the poultry house for that day and the predicted number of lost chickens for the next day calculated from the predicted environmental value inside the poultry house for the next day, and the display means 30 displays at least the predicted outside air temperature for that day, the predicted environmental value inside the poultry house for that day, the predicted number of lost chickens for that day, the predicted outside air temperature for the next day, the predicted environmental value inside the poultry house for the next day, and the predicted number of lost chickens for the next day, thereby allowing the user to grasp at least the predicted number of lost chickens for that day and the predicted number of lost chickens for the next day, and further reducing the number of lost chickens.

[0041] The predicted outside air temperature displayed by the display means 30 preferably includes any one of the average temperature, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature, and further preferably is the temperature for each time period divided into a plurality of time periods over a 24-hour period. Furthermore, it is preferable that the predicted environmental values ​​within the poultry house displayed by the display means 30 include one of the average environmental value, the maximum environmental value, and the minimum environmental value, and furthermore, that they are environmental values ​​for each time period divided into multiple periods over a 24-hour period. It is preferable to use the temperature and humidity inside the poultry house as predicted environmental values ​​inside the poultry house. By using environmental factors that have a large impact, it is possible to reduce the number of chickens lost, and since the temperature and humidity inside the poultry house are easy to adjust, it is possible to reduce the burden on producers. Additionally, CO2 concentration can be used as a predicted environmental value within the poultry house. In this case, at least one of the average carbon dioxide concentration (average CO2), maximum carbon dioxide concentration (maximum CO2), minimum carbon dioxide concentration (minimum CO2), the difference between the maximum and minimum carbon dioxide concentrations (CO2diff), and the sum of the maximum and minimum carbon dioxide concentrations (CO2plus) can be used.

[0042] If the predicted number of feathers to be lost displayed on the display means 30 is large, the operator can input a set environment value using the input means 40. When the set environmental values ​​are input by input means 40, predicted number of feathers lost calculation unit 24 calculates the predicted number of feathers lost using the set environmental values ​​instead of the predicted in-house environmental values, and display means 30 displays the predicted number of feathers lost calculated using the set environmental values. In this way, the operator can grasp the in-house environmental values ​​that can reduce the number of feathers lost. The predicted number of lost chicks is calculated using the actual number of surviving chicks, which is the number of chicks entered minus the actual number of chicks lost after the date of entering, so that the predicted number of lost chicks can be accurately determined as an actual value, especially in the later stages of the rearing period. Furthermore, by calculating the predicted number of losses as a percentage using the number of actual surviving chicks, calculated by subtracting the number of actual losses after the chick entry date from the number of chicks entered, as the denominator, it is possible to accurately grasp the predicted number of losses as a ratio, especially in the later stages of the rearing period.

[0043] The operator inputs the date and number of chicks entered at the start of rearing, and the actual number of feathers lost during the rearing period. In particular, by inputting the actual number of feathers lost during the rearing period, the actual number of feathers lost can be stored in memory unit 27 along with the in-house environmental values ​​and outside air temperature during the rearing period, and can therefore be used as past data for calculations by in-house predicted environmental value calculation unit 23 and predicted feather loss calculation unit 24. A mobile terminal such as a smartphone or tablet can be used for the display means 30 and the input means 40. The computer 20 is not necessarily limited to a specific personal computer or server. The predicted poultry house environmental value calculation unit 23 and the predicted number of lost feathers calculation unit 24 may be based on machine learning, and as the amount of accumulated data increases, a more accurate number of lost feathers can be determined.

[0044] As described above, the chicken loss prediction device of this embodiment calculates the predicted environment value inside the chicken house from the actual environment value and outdoor temperature over a specified period of time in the past and the predicted outdoor temperature, and calculates and displays the predicted number of chicken losses based on the predicted environment value inside the chicken house from the actual environment value and the actual number of chicken losses over a specified period of time in the past. This makes it possible to know in advance the days when the number of chicken losses will be high and to change the environment value inside the chicken house so as to reduce the number of chicken losses.

[0045] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a multiple regression equation that can be used to calculate the predicted number of feathers lost in the present invention. The chickens used were meat-raising chickens and laying hens. Eighteen temperature and humidity sensors were placed in a chicken coop measuring 20m wide and 50m deep, and environmental data was measured at one-minute intervals. The measured environmental data was sent to a repeater via BLE (a wireless communication protocol), and then collected on a cloud server from the repeater via an LTE router. The environmental data used were the maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum humidity (Hmax), and minimum humidity (Hmin). For chickens, 48 ​​days from hatching was considered one cycle, and nine cycles were tallied to count the number of deaths on a daily basis. The dependent variable was the number of deaths (Loss), and the explanatory variables were the maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum humidity (Hmax), and minimum humidity (Hmin). The 48-day course was divided into weekly periods, and analysis was performed for each age group (1 to 7 weeks old). The data obtained from the 18 temperature and humidity sensors was averaged and subjected to multiple regression analysis.

[0046] 4 to 7 are graphs showing the multiple regression equation shown in FIG. 4(a) is a graph showing formula A) for the first week shown in FIG. 3, FIG. 4(b) is a graph showing formula B) for the first week shown in FIG. 3, FIG. 4(c) is a graph showing formula A) for the second week shown in FIG. 3, and FIG. 4(d) is a graph showing formula B) for the second week shown in FIG. 3. 5(a) is a graph showing formula A) for the third week shown in FIG. 3, FIG. 5(b) is a graph showing formula B) for the third week shown in FIG. 3, FIG. 5(c) is a graph showing formula A) for the fourth week shown in FIG. 3, and FIG. 5(d) is a graph showing formula B) for the fourth week shown in FIG. 3. Figure 6(a) is a graph showing formula A) for the fifth week shown in Figure 3, Figure 6(b) is a graph showing formula B) for the fifth week shown in Figure 3, Figure 6(c) is a graph showing formula A) for the sixth week shown in Figure 3, and Figure 6(d) is a graph showing formula B) for the sixth week shown in Figure 3. FIG. 7 is a graph showing the formula A) for the seventh week shown in FIG. FIG. 8 shows an example of a multiple regression program that can be used to calculate the predicted number of feathers lost in the present invention shown in FIG. 3, using the maximum carbon dioxide concentration (Cmax) and the minimum carbon dioxide concentration (Cmin) as carbon dioxide parameters. [Industrial Applicability]

[0047] The present invention can be used to predict losses not only for chickens but also for other livestock animals. [Explanation of symbols]

[0048] 10 Chicken Coop 11 Temperature detection means 12 Humidity detection means 13 CO2 detection means 20 Computer 21 Poultry house environmental value receiver 22 Weather Information Receiving Unit 23. Calculation of predicted environmental values ​​in the poultry house 24 Calculation of predicted bird loss 25 Display data extraction unit 26 Equipment operation instruction section 27 Memory section 30 Display means 40 Input Methods 50 Poultry house environment control equipment

Claims

1. A chicken loss prediction method that accumulates data on actual environmental values ​​and actual chicken loss numbers in a chicken house over a predetermined period of time in the past, and outside air temperatures over the predetermined period of time in the past, and calculates a predicted chicken loss number using a predicted outside air temperature, The computer a poultry house predicted environment value calculation step of calculating a poultry house predicted environment value from the actual environment value, the outside air temperature, and the predicted outside air temperature; a predicted number of lost feathers calculation step of calculating a predicted number of lost feathers based on the predicted environmental value in the poultry house calculated in the predicted environmental value in the poultry house calculation step, from the actual environmental value and the actual number of lost feathers; a display step of displaying the predicted outside air temperature, the predicted poultry house environment value, and the predicted number of chickens lost on a display means; Run A method for predicting chicken losses.

2. When the setting environment value is input by the input means, In the step of calculating the predicted number of lost chickens, the predicted number of lost chickens is calculated using the set environmental value instead of the predicted environmental value in the poultry house, In the display step, the predicted number of feathers to be lost calculated using the set environment values ​​is displayed.

2. The method for predicting chicken losses according to claim 1.

3. The input means inputs the date of chick arrival, the number of chicks arrived, and the actual number of chicks lost. The predicted number of lost chicks is calculated using the actual number of surviving chicks obtained by subtracting the actual number of lost chicks after the chick entry date from the number of chicks entered.

2. The method for predicting chicken losses according to claim 1.

4. The input means inputs the date of chick arrival, the number of chicks arrived, and the actual number of chicks lost. The predicted number of lost chicks is calculated as a percentage using the number of actual surviving chicks, which is the number of chicks entered minus the actual number of lost chicks after the date of entering the chicks, as the modulus.

2. The method for predicting chicken losses according to claim 1.

5. the predicted poultry house environment value calculated in the step of calculating the predicted poultry house environment value includes at least a predicted poultry house environment value for the current day calculated from a predicted outside air temperature for the current day and a predicted poultry house environment value for the next day calculated from a predicted outside air temperature for the next day, The predicted number of lost feathers calculated in the predicted number of lost feathers calculation step includes at least the predicted number of lost feathers on that day calculated using the predicted environmental values ​​in the poultry house on that day and the predicted number of lost feathers on the next day calculated using the predicted environmental values ​​in the poultry house on the next day, In the display step, at least the predicted outdoor temperature of the day, the predicted environment value in the poultry house of the day, the predicted number of chickens lost of the day, the predicted outdoor temperature of the next day, the predicted environment value in the poultry house of the next day, and the predicted number of chickens lost of the next day are displayed.

2. The method for predicting chicken losses according to claim 1.

6. In the step of calculating the predicted number of lost chickens, a multiple regression equation according to the age of the chickens in weeks is used for calculation.

2. The method for predicting chicken losses according to claim 1.

7. The step of calculating the predicted environmental value in the poultry house and the step of calculating the predicted number of lost chickens are performed by machine learning.

2. The method for predicting chicken losses according to claim 1.

8. The actual environmental values ​​and the predicted environmental values ​​in the poultry house were the temperature and humidity in the poultry house.

2. The method for predicting chicken losses according to claim 1.

9. The computer an equipment operation instruction step for issuing an equipment operation instruction to the poultry house environment adjusting equipment based on the input set environmental values; Run 3. The method for predicting chicken losses according to claim 2.

10. In the equipment operation instruction step, if the set environmental value is not input, the equipment operation instruction is given based on the predicted environmental value in the poultry house.

10. The method for predicting chicken losses according to claim 9.

11. A chicken loss prediction device that accumulates data on actual environmental values ​​and actual chicken loss numbers in a chicken house over a predetermined period of time in the past, and outside air temperatures over the predetermined period of time in the past, and calculates a predicted chicken loss number using a predicted outside air temperature, The computer a poultry house predicted environment value calculation unit that calculates a poultry house predicted environment value from the actual environment value, the outside air temperature, and the predicted outside air temperature; a predicted number of lost feathers calculation unit that calculates a predicted number of lost feathers based on the predicted in-house environmental value calculated by the predicted in-house environmental value calculation unit from the actual environmental value and the actual number of lost feathers; a display data extraction unit that extracts the predicted outside temperature, the predicted poultry house environment value, and the predicted number of lost chickens to be displayed on a display means; have A chicken loss prediction device characterized by:

12. When the setting environment value is input by the input means, The predicted number of lost chickens calculation unit calculates the predicted number of lost chickens using the set environmental value instead of the predicted environmental value in the poultry house, The display means displays the predicted number of feathers lost calculated using the set environment values.

12. The chicken loss prediction device according to claim 11.

13. The predicted number of lost chicks is calculated using the actual number of surviving chicks obtained by subtracting the actual number of lost chicks after the chick entry date from the number of chicks entered.

12. The chicken loss prediction device according to claim 11.

14. The predicted number of lost chicks is calculated as a percentage using the number of actual surviving chicks, which is the number of chicks entered minus the actual number of lost chicks after the date of entering, as the modulus.

12. The chicken loss prediction device according to claim 11.

15. the predicted poultry house environment value calculated by the predicted poultry house environment value calculation unit includes at least a predicted poultry house environment value for the current day calculated from a predicted outside air temperature for the current day, and a predicted poultry house environment value for the next day calculated from a predicted outside air temperature for the next day, The predicted number of lost feathers calculated by the predicted number of lost feathers calculation unit includes at least the predicted number of lost feathers on that day calculated using the predicted environmental values ​​in the poultry house on that day and the predicted number of lost feathers on the next day calculated using the predicted environmental values ​​in the poultry house on the next day, The display means displays at least the predicted outdoor temperature of the day, the predicted environment value inside the poultry house of the day, the predicted number of chickens lost on the day, the predicted outdoor temperature of the next day, the predicted environment value inside the poultry house of the next day, and the predicted number of chickens lost on the next day.

12. The chicken loss prediction device according to claim 11.

16. The predicted number of lost chickens calculation unit calculates the number of lost chickens using a multiple regression equation according to the age of the chickens in weeks.

12. The chicken loss prediction device according to claim 11.

17. The predicted environmental value calculation unit in the poultry house and the predicted number of lost chickens calculation unit are performed by machine learning.

12. The chicken loss prediction device according to claim 11.

18. The actual environmental values ​​and the predicted environmental values ​​in the poultry house were the temperature and humidity in the poultry house.

12. The chicken loss prediction device according to claim 11.

19. The computer an equipment operation instruction unit that issues equipment operation instructions to the poultry house environment adjustment equipment based on the input set environmental values; have 13. The chicken loss prediction device according to claim 12.

20. When the set environmental value is not input, the equipment operation instruction unit issues the equipment operation instruction based on the predicted environmental value in the poultry house.

20. The chicken loss prediction device of claim 19.

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