Facility design device and facility design method

Abstract

To provide a facility design device and a facility design method capable of stably supplying power even in bad weather and designing facilities so that the power supply is not excessive. [Solution] The facility design device 1 includes a data storage unit 2 that stores time series data of observed values ​​or simulated values ​​of observed values ​​of natural energy, a period estimation unit 3 that estimates the minimum power generation period of a power generation facility that uses natural energy in each of a plurality of time units based on the time series data of observed values ​​or simulated values, and a facility selection unit 4 that selects a power generation facility and a storage facility that stores the electricity generated by the power generation facility based on the time series data of observed values ​​or simulated values ​​of the minimum power generation period in each of the plurality of time units.

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a facility design device and a facility design method. [Background technology]

[0002] Buildings such as buildings and condominiums are increasingly being equipped with stand-alone operation facilities in case commercial power is interrupted. The design of stand-alone operation facilities that combine renewable energy generation with storage batteries requires prior simulation of renewable energy power generation. However, determining the weather patterns to use in the simulation can be difficult. For example, if a design is made using the monthly average solar radiation, which correlates with solar power generation, the solar radiation will be the average between good and bad weather, resulting in an underdesign where there is insufficient power when attempting stand-alone operation during bad weather. Conversely, blindly applying a safety factor for fear of such a scenario can result in an overdesign.

[0003] Patent Document 1 discloses a method for determining the capacity of a storage battery using the maximum number of consecutive days D that does not exceed a reference daily total global solar radiation amount S. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2023-41076 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] The method described in Patent Document 1 is simple, but it cannot handle a pattern in which there are two consecutive rainy days below the standard value, followed by one rainy day above the standard value and then another rainy day below the standard value, such as sunny, rainy, rainy, cloudy, rainy, etc. If equipment designed to accommodate such weather patterns is operated in standalone mode, it is predicted that the remaining battery power will run out.

[0006] Therefore, an object of the present disclosure is to provide an equipment design device and an equipment design method that can provide a stable power supply even in bad weather and can design equipment that is not excessive. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] The facility design device disclosed herein includes a data storage unit that stores time series data of observed values ​​of natural energy, a period estimation unit that estimates a minimum power generation period of a power generation facility that uses natural energy in each of a plurality of time units based on the time series data of observed values ​​or simulated values ​​that simulate the observed values, and a facility selection unit that selects a power generation facility and a storage facility that stores electricity generated by the power generation facility based on the time series data of observed values ​​or simulated values ​​of the minimum power generation period in each of the plurality of time units. [Effects of the Invention]

[0008] According to the present disclosure, it is possible to design facilities that can provide a stable supply of power even in bad weather, without excessively increasing the power supply. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0009] [Figure 1] 1 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of a facility design device 1 according to a first embodiment. [Figure 2] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of applying a seven-day window function. [Figure 3] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of applying a two-day window function. [Figure 4] 3 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the facility design method in the first embodiment. [Figure 5] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of a facility design device 1A according to a second embodiment. [Figure 6] 10 is a flowchart showing the procedure of a facility design method according to a second embodiment. [Figure 7] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of a facility design device 1B according to a third embodiment. [Figure 8]FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining an example of a first minimum power generation amount period and a second minimum power generation amount period. [Figure 9] 10 is a flowchart showing the procedure of a facility design method according to a third embodiment. [Figure 10] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing the hardware configuration of a facility design device 1. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0010] Hereinafter, embodiments will be described with reference to the drawings. Embodiment 1

[0011] 1 is a diagram showing the configuration of a facility design device 1 according to embodiment 1. The facility design device 1 includes a data storage unit 2, a period estimation unit 3, a facility selection unit 4, an input device 5, and a display device 6. The input device 5 receives input from a facility designer (user). The display device 6 displays the selected facility and the like to the user.

[0012] The data storage unit 2 stores time-series data of hourly observation values ​​of natural energy such as solar radiation, wind speed, or geothermal energy for each location for a predetermined period. The predetermined period is, for example, one year. Natural energy is also renewable energy. The observation values ​​are data observed in the past.

[0013] The period estimation unit 3 estimates the minimum power generation period of the power generation facility that utilizes natural energy for each of multiple time units based on the time series data of observed values ​​of natural energy stored in the data storage unit 2. The minimum power generation period represents a period of unfavorable weather, such as a series of days with heavy rain, slow wind speed, or low geothermal energy. The power generation facility may be a solar power generation facility, a wind power generation facility, or a geothermal power generation facility. The period estimation unit 3 estimates the period with the smallest total or average value of the observed values ​​for each of the multiple time units as the minimum power generation period. For example, the multiple time units can be days 1 to N. The period estimation unit 3 scans the time series data of the observed values ​​using a window function for the i-th day and estimates the period with the smallest total or average value as the minimum power generation period MT(i) for the i-th day, i.e., the worst-case weather scenario. i = 1 to N, where N is the number of days in the Business Continuity Plan (BCP).

[0014] 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of applying a 7-day window function. By shifting the 7-day window function, the period with the lowest total or average solar radiation amount in 7 days is estimated as the 7-day minimum power generation period MT(7).

[0015] 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of applying a two-day window function. By shifting the two-day window function, the period with the lowest total or average solar radiation amount over two days is estimated as the two-day minimum power generation period MT(2).

[0016] The facility selection unit 4 selects a power generation facility and a power storage facility for storing the power generated by the power generation facility based on time series data of observed values ​​during a minimum power generation period in each of a plurality of time units. Under the constraint that the remaining capacity of the power storage facility does not become 0 during the minimum power generation period in units of 1st to Nth days, the facility selection unit 4 determines the capacity of the power generation facility, the output of the power storage facility, and the output of the power storage facility based on the expected demand and power generation performance value, so as to minimize an objective function that is the sum of the cost of the power generation facility and the cost of the power storage facility.

[0017] The expected demand can be set, for example, based on customer requests. The power generation performance value is a coefficient for converting solar radiation, wind speed, or geothermal heat into power generation.

[0018] When the power generation equipment capacity (kW) is IC1, the power generation equipment unit cost is UC1, the storage equipment output (kW) is IC2, the storage equipment output unit cost is UC2, the storage equipment capacity (kWh) is IC3, and the storage equipment capacity unit cost is UC3, the objective function f is expressed by the following equation. f=IC1×UC1+IC2×UC2+IC3×UC3…(1)

[0019] The facility selection unit 4 determines the power generation facility capacity IC1, the power storage facility output IC2, and the power storage facility capacity IC3 that minimize the objective function f under the following constraint conditions.

[0020] (1) The demand for electricity and the supply of electricity (the sum of the amount of electricity generated and the input and output of the storage facility) must match every hour.

[0021] (2) During the minimum power generation period of the i-th day (i = 1 to N), the remaining battery charge does not become zero even for a moment.

[0022] This calculation can be performed using linear programming or mixed integer linear programming. Which scenario is most difficult for autonomous operation depends on factors such as the balance between the capacities of the power generation equipment and the battery storage equipment. According to this embodiment, it is possible to determine the combination of equipment that can continue to supply power in all scenarios while minimizing costs. FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the facility design method according to the first embodiment.

[0023] In step S101, the input device 5 accepts an input of the number of BCP days N from the user.

[0024] In step S102, the period estimation unit 3 reads out the time series data of the observed value of natural energy stored in the data storage unit 2.

[0025] In step S103, the period estimation unit 3 estimates the period with the smallest total or average value of the observed values ​​in each time unit from the first day to the Nth day as the minimum power generation period.

[0026] In step S104, the equipment selection unit 4 determines the capacity of the power generation equipment, the output of the power storage equipment, and the output of the power storage equipment that minimizes the objective function, which is the sum of the cost of the power generation equipment and the cost of the power storage equipment, based on the expected demand and power generation performance value, under the constraint that the remaining capacity of the power storage equipment does not become 0 during the minimum power generation period in units of 1st to Nth days.

[0027] If a weather pattern is extracted using a single window function with the number of BCP days N, it will be impossible to extract a pattern in which the weather conditions are severe in the first half of the BCP schedule and improve in the second half. In this embodiment, by narrowing the window function to (N-1), (N-2), etc., it is possible to extract schedules with even more severe conditions.

[0028] According to this embodiment, by simply determining the number of BCP days, it is possible to extract severe weather patterns and determine a reasonable storage battery capacity. Furthermore, according to this embodiment, it is no longer necessary to define the standard daily total global solar radiation S proposed in Patent Document 1, which has the effect of reducing the number of variables. Embodiment 2

[0029] The relationship between wind speed and wind power generation is nonlinear. For example, wind power generation is proportional to the cube of wind speed. Therefore, even if the total or average value of observed values ​​is the same, the amount of power generation will differ. In this embodiment, to more accurately simulate actual conditions, the observed values ​​of renewable energy are converted into power values ​​(power generation amount) of the power generation facility, and the converted power generation amount is used to estimate the minimum power generation period.

[0030] 5 is a diagram showing the configuration of an equipment design device 1A according to embodiment 2. Equipment design device 1A according to embodiment 2 differs from equipment design device 1 according to embodiment 1 in that equipment design device 1A according to embodiment 2 includes a conversion unit 7A, and instead of the period estimation unit 3 and the equipment selection unit 4, includes a period estimation unit 3A and an equipment selection unit 4A.

[0031] The conversion unit 7A converts the observed value of natural energy into the power value of the power generation facility using a predetermined function. For example, the conversion unit 7A converts the amount of solar radiation into the amount of power generated by a solar panel by multiplying it by a certain coefficient, or converts the amount of power generated by a wind power generation facility by cubing the wind speed.

[0032] The period estimation unit 3A estimates, as the minimum power generation period, the period in which the total or average value of the power values, rather than the observed value, is the smallest in each of the multiple time units.

[0033] The facility selection unit 4A selects a power generation facility and a power storage facility that stores the power generated by the power generation facility, based on time-series data of power values ​​during the minimum power generation period in each of a plurality of time units. FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the facility design method according to the second embodiment.

[0034] In step S201, the input device 5 accepts an input of the number of BCP days N from the user.

[0035] In step S202, the conversion unit 7A reads out the time series data of the observed value of natural energy stored in the data storage unit 2.

[0036] In step S203, the conversion unit 7A converts the observed value of natural energy into a power value of the power generation facility using a predetermined function.

[0037] In step S204, the period estimation unit 3A estimates the period with the smallest total or average power value in each time unit from the first day to the Nth day as the minimum power generation period.

[0038] In step S205, the facility selection unit 4A determines the capacity of the power generation facility, the output of the power storage facility, and the output of the power storage facility based on the expected demand, so that the objective function, which is the sum of the cost of the power generation facility and the cost of the power storage facility, is minimized under the constraint that the remaining capacity of the power storage facility does not become 0 during the minimum power generation amount period in units of 1st to Nth days.

[0039] The relationship between meteorological observation values ​​and power generation capacity may be nonlinear due to the generator characteristics. According to this embodiment, by providing a conversion unit, this nonlinearity can be incorporated, thereby preventing over- or under-designing of the facility. Embodiment 3

[0040] 7 is a diagram showing the configuration of an equipment design device 1B according to embodiment 3. Equipment design device 1B according to embodiment 3 differs from equipment design device 1 according to embodiment 1 in that equipment design device 1B according to embodiment 3 includes a data storage unit 2B, a period estimation unit 3B, and an equipment selection unit 4B instead of the data storage unit 2, the period estimation unit 3, and the equipment selection unit 4.

[0041] The data storage unit 2B stores time series data of first observation values ​​of a first renewable energy and second observation values ​​of a second renewable energy for each hour for a predetermined period. The predetermined period is, for example, one year. The first renewable energy and the second renewable energy are, for example, solar radiation, wind speed, or geothermal energy, and the first renewable energy and the second renewable energy are different types.

[0042] The period estimation unit 3B estimates a first minimum power generation period of a first power generation facility that uses a first renewable energy in each of a plurality of time units based on time series data of a first observation value. The period estimation unit 3B estimates a second minimum power generation period of a second power generation facility that uses a second renewable energy in each of a plurality of time units based on time series data of a second observation value. The first power generation facility and the second power generation facility are solar power generation facility, wind power generation facility, geothermal power generation facility, or the like, and the type of the first power generation facility and the type of the second power generation facility are different.

[0043] The period estimation unit 3B estimates the period in which the total or average value of the first observation values ​​is the smallest in each of multiple time units as the first minimum power generation period, and estimates the period in which the total or average value of the second observation values ​​is the smallest as the second minimum power generation period. For example, the multiple time units can be the first to Nth days. The period estimation unit 3B scans the time series data of the first observation values ​​using a window function for the i-th day and estimates the period in which the total or average value is the smallest as the first minimum power generation period for the i-th day, i.e., the first worst weather scenario. The period estimation unit 3B scans the time series data of the second observation values ​​using a window function for the i-th day and estimates the period in which the total or average value is the smallest as the second minimum power generation period for the i-th day, i.e., the second worst weather scenario. i = 1 to N, where N is the number of days in a Business Continuity Plan (BCP).

[0044] FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating an example of a first minimum power generation period and a second minimum power generation period. In this example, the first renewable energy is solar radiation, and the second renewable energy is wind speed. The period estimation unit 3B estimates the first minimum power generation period MTA(7) for seven days by scanning the time series data of the first observation value, solar radiation, using a seven-day window function. The period estimation unit 3B estimates the second minimum power generation period MTB(7) for seven days by scanning the time series data of the second observation value, wind speed, using a seven-day window function. In the following calculations for facility selection, in the first minimum power generation period MTA(7), not only the data of the first observation value (solar radiation) but also the data of the second observation value (wind speed) are used, and in the second minimum power generation period MTB(7), not only the data of the second observation value (wind speed) but also the data of the first observation value (solar radiation) are used.

[0045] The equipment selection unit 4B selects the first power generation equipment, the second power generation equipment, and a power storage equipment that stores the electricity generated by the first power generation equipment and the second power generation equipment, based on the time series data of the first observation value and the time series data of the second observation value in the first minimum power generation period in each of the multiple time units, and the time series data of the first observation value and the time series data of the second observation value in the second minimum power generation period in each of the multiple time units.

[0046] The facility selection unit 4B determines the capacity of the first power generation facility, the capacity of the second power generation facility, the output of the power storage facility, and the output of the power storage facility that minimize an objective function, which is the sum of the cost of the first power generation facility, the cost of the second power generation facility, and the cost of the power storage facility, based on the expected demand and the power generation performance value, under the constraint that the remaining capacity of the power storage facility does not become 0 during the first minimum power generation period MTA(i) and the second minimum power generation period MTB(i) in units of 1 to N days, where i=1 to N.

[0047] When the capacity (kW) of the first power generation equipment is ID1, the unit cost of the first power generation equipment is UD1, the capacity (kW) of the second power generation equipment is ID2, the unit cost of the second power generation equipment is UD2, the output of the power storage equipment (kW) is ID3, the unit cost of the power storage equipment output is UD3, the capacity of the power storage equipment (kWh) is ID4, and the unit cost of the power storage equipment capacity is UD4, the objective function f2 is expressed by the following equation. f2=ID1×UD1+ID2×UD2+ID3×UD3+ID4×UD4…(2)

[0048] The facility selection unit 4B determines the first power generation facility capacity ID1, the second power generation facility capacity ID2, the power storage facility output ID3, and the power storage facility capacity ID4 that minimize the objective function f2 under the following constraint conditions.

[0049] (1) The demand for electricity and the supply of electricity (the sum of the power generation amount of the first power generation facility, the power generation amount of the second power generation facility, and the input / output of the storage facility) must match every hour.

[0050] (2) During the first minimum power generation period MTA(i) and the second minimum power generation period MTB(i) (i = 1 to N) on the i-th day, the remaining battery charge does not become 0 even for an instant. This calculation can be performed using linear programming or mixed integer linear programming. FIG. 9 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the facility design method according to the third embodiment.

[0051] In step S301, the input device 5 accepts an input of the number of BCP days N from the user.

[0052] In step S302, period estimation unit 3B reads out the time series data of the first observation value of the first renewable energy and the time series data of the second observation value of the second renewable energy stored in data storage unit 2B.

[0053] In step S303, the period estimation unit 3B scans the time series data of the first observation value with a window function for the i-th day, and estimates the period with the lowest total value or average value as the first minimum power generation period for the i-th day. The period estimation unit 3B scans the time series data of the second observation value with a window function for the i-th day, and estimates the period with the lowest total value or average value as the second minimum power generation period for the i-th day, where i=1 to N.

[0054] In step S304, the facility selection unit 4B determines the capacity of the first power generation facility, the capacity of the second power generation facility, the output of the power storage facility, and the output of the power storage facility that minimize an objective function, which is the sum of the cost of the first power generation facility, the cost of the second power generation facility, and the cost of the power storage facility, based on the expected demand and the power generation performance value, under the constraint that the remaining capacity of the power storage facility does not become 0 during the first minimum power generation period MTA(i) and the second minimum power generation period MTB(i) in units of 1 to N days, where i=1 to N.

[0055] For example, solar power generation and wind power generation have a complementary relationship, and the timing of the worst-case scenario for solar power generation and the worst-case scenario for wind power generation do not necessarily coincide. Therefore, if a scenario is assumed in which the worst-case scenario for solar power generation and the worst-case scenario for wind power generation occur simultaneously, this would be an assumption of a worse situation than reality, leading to over-design of the autonomous operation facility.

[0056] In this embodiment, by assuming a scenario for one power generation source in accordance with the timing when the other power generation source is in the worst case, it is possible to avoid over-designing the equipment.

[0057] The facility design devices described in the first to third embodiments can be configured with corresponding operations implemented by digital circuit hardware or software. When the facility design device is implemented using software, the facility design device can include, for example, a processor 8 and a memory 9 connected by a bus 20, as shown in Fig. 10, and the processor 8 can execute a program stored in the memory 9.

[0058] Variant. In the above-described embodiment, observed values ​​of renewable energy (data observed in the past) are used, but simulated values ​​that simulate observed values ​​may be used instead of observed values. By using simulated values, it is possible to create a long period of consecutive bad weather days, and therefore it is possible to design equipment based on weather patterns that are more severe than past weather patterns. The simulated values ​​may also be random. The above-described embodiment is a specific example of the following additional notes.

[0059] (Appendix 1) a data storage unit that stores time-series data of observed values ​​of natural energy or simulated values ​​that simulate the observed values; a period estimation unit that estimates a minimum power generation period of the power generation facility that utilizes natural energy for each of a plurality of time units based on time series data of the observed values ​​or the simulated values; an equipment selection unit that selects the power generation equipment and a power storage equipment that stores the power generated by the power generation equipment, based on time series data of the observed values ​​or the simulated values ​​for the minimum power generation amount period in each of the plurality of time units.

[0060] (Appendix 2) 2. The facility design device according to claim 1, wherein the period estimation unit estimates as the minimum power generation period the period in which the total or average of the observed values ​​or the total or average of the simulated values ​​is the smallest in each of a plurality of time units.

[0061] (Appendix 3) a conversion unit that converts the observed value or the simulated value of the natural energy into a power value of the power generation facility, 3. The facility design device according to claim 1, wherein the period estimation unit estimates, as a minimum power generation period, a period in which the total or average value of the power values ​​is smallest in each of a plurality of time units.

[0062] (Appendix 4) The facility design device according to any one of appendices 1 to 3, wherein the period estimation unit estimates the period in which the total or average value of the observed values ​​or the total or average value of the simulated values ​​is the smallest in each of the first to Nth day units as the minimum power generation period.

[0063] (Appendix 5) The facility design device according to claim 4, wherein the facility selection unit determines the capacity of the power generation facility, the output of the power storage facility, and the capacity of the power storage facility so that an objective function, which is the sum of the cost of the power generation facility and the cost of the power storage facility, is minimized based on expected demand, under the constraint that the remaining capacity of the power storage facility does not become 0 during the minimum power generation period in units of the 1st to Nth days.

[0064] (Appendix 6) 6. The facility design device according to any one of appendixes 1 to 5, wherein the observed value of natural energy is the amount of solar radiation or wind speed.

[0065] (Appendix 7) the data storage unit stores time series data of a first observed value of a first renewable energy or a first simulated value that simulates the first observed value, and a second observed value of a second renewable energy or a second simulated value that simulates the second observed value; the period estimation unit estimates a first minimum power generation period of a first power generation facility that utilizes the first renewable energy in each of a plurality of time units based on time series data of the first observed value or the first simulated value, and estimates a second minimum power generation period of a second power generation facility that utilizes the second renewable energy in each of a plurality of time units based on time series data of the second observed value or the second simulated value; 7. The facility design device according to any one of appendixes 1 to 6, wherein the facility selection unit selects the first power generation facility, the second power generation facility, and a power storage facility that stores the power generated by the first power generation facility and the second power generation facility, based on time series data of the first observed value or the first simulated value and time series data of the second observed value or the second simulated value during the first minimum power generation period in each of the plurality of time units, and time series data of the first observed value or the first simulated value and time series data of the second observed value or the second simulated value during the second minimum power generation period in each of the plurality of time units.

[0066] (Appendix 8) estimating a minimum power generation period of the power generation facility that utilizes renewable energy for each of a plurality of time units based on time series data of observed values ​​of the renewable energy or simulated values ​​that simulate the observed values; selecting the power generation facility and a power storage facility that stores the power generated by the power generation facility based on time series data of the observed values ​​or the simulated values ​​for the minimum power generation period in each of the plurality of time units.

[0067] The embodiments disclosed herein should be considered to be illustrative in all respects and not restrictive. The scope of the present invention is defined by the claims, not by the above description, and is intended to include all modifications within the meaning and scope of the claims. [Explanation of symbols]

[0068] 1, 1A, 1B Facility design device, 2, 2B Data storage unit, 3, 3A, 3B Period estimation unit, 4, 4A, 4B Facility selection unit, 5 Input device, 6 Display device, 7A Conversion unit, 8 Processor, 9 Memory, 20 Bus.

Claims

1. a data storage unit that stores time-series data of observed values ​​of natural energy or simulated values ​​that simulate the observed values; a period estimation unit that estimates a minimum power generation period of the power generation facility that utilizes natural energy for each of a plurality of time units based on time series data of the observed values ​​or the simulated values; an equipment selection unit that selects the power generation equipment and a power storage equipment that stores the power generated by the power generation equipment, based on time series data of the observed values ​​or the simulated values ​​for the minimum power generation amount period in each of the plurality of time units.

2. 2. The facility design device according to claim 1, wherein the period estimation unit estimates, as the minimum power generation period, a period in which the total or average of the observed values ​​or the total or average of the simulated values ​​is smallest in each of a plurality of time units.

3. a conversion unit that converts the observed value or the simulated value of the natural energy into a power value of the power generation facility, The facility design device according to claim 1 , wherein the period estimation unit estimates, as the minimum power generation period, a period in which the total or average value of the power values ​​is smallest in each of a plurality of time units.

4. 2. The facility design device according to claim 1, wherein the period estimation unit estimates, in each of the first to Nth day units, the period in which the total or average value of the observed values ​​or the total or average value of the simulated values ​​is the smallest as the minimum power generation period.

5. 5. The facility design device according to claim 4, wherein the facility selection unit determines the capacity of the power generation facility, the output of the power storage facility, and the capacity of the power storage facility so that an objective function, which is the sum of the cost of the power generation facility and the cost of the power storage facility, is minimized based on expected demand, under a constraint that the remaining capacity of the power storage facility does not become zero during the minimum power generation period in units of the first to Nth days.

6. The facility design device according to claim 1 , wherein the observed value of natural energy is solar radiation or wind speed.

7. the data storage unit stores time series data of a first observed value of a first renewable energy or a first simulated value that simulates the first observed value, and a second observed value of a second renewable energy or a second simulated value that simulates the second observed value; the period estimation unit estimates a first minimum power generation period of a first power generation facility that utilizes the first renewable energy in each of a plurality of time units based on time series data of the first observed value or the first simulated value, and estimates a second minimum power generation period of a second power generation facility that utilizes the second renewable energy in each of a plurality of time units based on time series data of the second observed value or the second simulated value; 2. The facility design device according to claim 1, wherein the facility selection unit selects the first power generation facility, the second power generation facility, and a power storage facility that stores power generated by the first power generation facility and the second power generation facility, based on time series data of the first observed value or the first simulated value and the second observed value or the second simulated value during the first minimum power generation period in each of the plurality of time units, and time series data of the first observed value or the first simulated value and the second observed value or the second simulated value during the second minimum power generation period in each of the plurality of time units.

8. estimating a minimum power generation period of the power generation facility that utilizes renewable energy for each of a plurality of time units based on time series data of observed values ​​of the renewable energy or simulated values ​​that simulate the observed values; selecting the power generation facility and a power storage facility that stores the power generated by the power generation facility based on time series data of the observed values ​​or the simulated values ​​for the minimum power generation period in each of the plurality of time units.

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