Golf play result simulation modeling system

Abstract

An update hybrid golf tournament simulation method may include generating predicted hole scores for each hole of each round of a golf tournament. The predicted hole scores may be generated by utilizing collective historical data corresponding to past occurrences of one or more hole events associated with golf play and historical player data to calculate hole event probabilities for use as weights to generate predicted outcomes of the hole events. To generate the predicted hole scores, score probability distributions may be assigned to the predicted outcomes. The simulation may be analyzed for the probabilities of the predicted outcomes, such as the probability of winning, the cut line, or the probability of finishing in the top 10. The simulation may be updated during actual play of the tournament by replacing the predicted scores with actual scores, thereby further updating the probabilities of the predicted outcomes.

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to managing a golf event, including simulated results, and may further include live simulation updates. [Background technology]

[0002] There are many golf tournaments available for golfers to participate in. For professional golfers, tournaments are often associated with one of the many organized golf tours. For example, the PGA Tour is the world's premier membership organization for touring professional golfers, co-hosting the PGA Tour, PGA Tour Champions, Korn Ferry Tour, PGA Tour Latin America, and PGA Tour Canada tournaments. Each tour typically consists of a schedule of numerous tournament events held throughout the season, and players compete not only in individual tournaments but throughout the entire season. For example, some tours use a points system, in which players are awarded points based on their placement in each tournament, ranking them throughout the season. A player's accumulated points may be used to determine eligibility for playoffs or championship tournaments during the season. In some cases, accumulated points may also be used to determine eligibility to participate in the same or other tours or events in future seasons.

[0003] The points system must be representative of a player's level of play throughout the season, while also providing an element of excitement by offering a format in which many players can potentially compete for the top spots in the rankings throughout the season. Balancing these broad goals is important from both a player and fan perspective.

[0004] What is needed is a system and methodology for evaluating the potential effectiveness of different schedules and points systems. Summary of the Invention

[0005] In one aspect, a golf tournament simulation method is configured for hybrid simulation updating, updating a simulation based on actual play of a simulated golf tournament. In one configuration, the method includes retrieving relevant collective past player data and past player data from a statistical database to generate respective hole event probabilities for one or more hole events for each hole of a round; processing the collective past player data and past player data through a hole event probability algorithm to generate hole event probabilities for each hole event; using the generated hole event probabilities as weights in a weighted random generation algorithm to calculate predicted hole event outcomes for each hole event; assigning score probability distributions for each hole corresponding to the one or more predicted hole event outcomes for each hole; and inputting the assigned score probability distributions into a random score selector algorithm to generate predicted hole scores for each hole. The method may further include calculating predicted round scores from the predicted hole scores, repeating the generation of predicted round scores for all tournament rounds for each competing player, further repeating to generate multiple tournament simulations, calculating one or more outcome probabilities from the multiple tournament simulations, storing the tournament simulations for update processing, and performing updates as needed on all simulations during actual play of the tournament to update the predicted outcome probabilities.

[0006] In one example, the predicted round score is the sum of the predicted hole scores for each hole in the round.

[0007] In the above or other examples, the predicted round score consists of an adjusted sum of the predicted hole score for the round, or an adjusted sum of the predicted hole scores for the round.

[0008] As an example, the method includes applying a score adjustment based at least in part on the simulated player's past player data. The adjustment may be applied to each hole score or predicted round score. The past player data may include a difference in the player's actual past play. In one configuration, the difference in the player's actual past play may be a difference in the average score in a tournament round corresponding to the simulated round relative to all tournament rounds. In some arrangements, the predicted hole score adjustment may be based on a difference between the simulated player's average round score for all tournament rounds and the player's average round score in the tournament for the particular round being simulated. In one example of applying a score adjustment, the round adjustment may be applied to each predicted hole score output by the random score selector algorithm or a round score calculated from the predicted hole scores if there is a past play difference between the simulated player's round score average for the simulated round relative to the player's round score average across all tournament rounds.

[0009] In this or another example, past play may consist of a rolling average of one or more seasons. In this or another configuration, more recent historical data points in past play are weighted more heavily.

[0010] In any of the above or other examples, the method may include applying a cutline protocol to each tournament simulation in accordance with tournament rules and not including predicted round scores for post-cut rounds in the predicted tournament scores for players who are predicted not to qualify. In one configuration, the cutline protocol includes running round simulations for pre-cut rounds to generate predicted round scores for each pre-cut round for all players, establishing the tournament cut line based on the predicted round scores from the pre-cut rounds, and running round simulations for post-cut rounds for players who are predicted to qualify to generate predicted round scores for the post-cut rounds for players who are predicted to qualify. In another configuration, the cutline protocol includes running round simulations for pre-cut and post-cut rounds to generate predicted round scores for pre-cut and post-cut rounds for all players, and establishing the cut line for the golf tournament based on the predicted round scores from the pre-cut rounds.

[0011] In the above or other examples, the hole event probability corresponds to the probability that a hole event will occur on a hole.

[0012] In the above or other examples, the relevant collective historical data and historical player data represents past occurrences of hole events in actual play at the same or similar level of tournament play.

[0013] In the above or other examples, the relevant collective historical data represents past occurrences of hole events in actual tournament play by the collective players for multiple holes and the particular hole being simulated, and the historical player data represents past occurrences of hold events by the simulated players for multiple holes.

[0014] In any of the above or other examples, the associated collective historical data and historical player data correspond to the occurrence of a hole event on a hole having a hole attribute that corresponds to an attribute of the hole being simulated. For example, the attribute may be par value.

[0015] In any of the above or other examples, the hole event outcome for a first hole event on a first hole specifies the elements necessary to identify the relevant collective historical data and historical player data used to generate a hole event probability for a second hole event on the first hole.

[0016] In any of the above or other examples, the method may also include calculating more hole event probabilities for par 4 holes, par 5 holes, or both, than for par 3 holes.

[0017] In any of the above or other examples, the one or more hole events include a first hole event, the first hole event including a shot location off the tee, and the first hole event probability including a probability that the player will hit the shot location off the tee. In one example, the off-tee shot location outcome is based on an attribute of the hole. For example, the attribute of the hole is a par rating for the hole, and the first hole event probability for a par-4 hole includes a probability that the player will hit the fairway off the tee. The first hole event probability for a par-3 hole may include a probability that the player will hit the green off the tee. In some configurations, at least one hole includes a second hole event consisting of a shot location for a subsequent shot. The location outcome for the subsequent shot may correspond to an attribute of the hole. In one example, the attribute is a par rating for the hole. For example, the second hole event probability for a par-4 hole may include a probability that the player will hit the green from a location determined by the predicted outcome of the first hole event.

[0018] In any of the above or other examples, each hole includes a first hole event corresponding to the location of the shot. The first hole event may correspond to an off-tee location hole event consisting of the green for a par-3 hole and the fairway for a par-4 and par-5 hole. The associated collective historical data and historical player data for the off-tee location hole event may include, for a par-3 hole: player GIR% (GIR rate) for the par-3 hole, overall (collective) GIR% for the hole, and overall GIR% for the par-3 hole; and for par-4 and par-5 holes: player hit fairway% (hit fairway rate) for the par-4 and par-5 holes, overall hit fairway% for the hole, and overall hit fairway% for the par-4 and par-5 holes. In a further configuration, a second hole event occurs for at least some of the holes. The second hole event may correspond to the shot location for the shot following the off-tee shot. In one embodiment, generating a predicted hole score for a par-4 hole includes retrieving relevant collective historical data and past player data from a statistical database using predicted hole event location outcomes for off-tee location hole events calculated for the hole as from a statistical location to calculate hole probabilities for subsequent shot locations. The corresponding location hole event probabilities can be used as weights in a weighted random generator algorithm to calculate predicted hole event location outcomes for subsequent shot location hole events. According to one method, calculating predicted hole outcomes for subsequent shot location hole events for a par-5 hole is performed in a similar manner as for a par-4 hole.In one embodiment, if the predicted hole event location outcome of the off-tee location hole event calculated for a hole is a fairway, the associated collective historical data and past player data for the subsequent shot location hole event consists of historical statistics corresponding to past occurrences of hitting the green from a fairway, consisting of: player GIR% from the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, overall GIR% from the fairway for the hole, and overall GIR% from the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes. If the predicted hole event location outcome of the off-tee location hole event calculated for a hole is a non-fairway, the associated collective historical data and past player data for the subsequent shot location hole event consists of historical statistics corresponding to past occurrences of hitting the green from a non-fairway, consisting of: player GIR% from the non-fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, overall GIR% from the non-fairway for the hole, and overall GIR% from the non-fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes.

[0019] In the above or other examples, the hole event probability algorithm is as follows:

number

[0020] In one example, the first hole event probability for par 4 and par 5 holes may include the probability that a player hits the fairway off the tee, where x is the player hit fairway% for the par 4 and par 5 holes, y is the overall hit fairway% for the hole, and z is the overall hit fairway% for the par 4 and par 5 holes. The second hole event probability for par 4 and par 5 holes may include the probability that a player hits the green on their subsequent shot from a location specified by the predicted outcome of the first hole event. In one application, if the predicted outcome of the first hole event is hitting the fairway, the collective historical data and the player's collective historical data correspond to past occurrences of hitting the green from the fairway, where x is the player's GIR% from the fairway for the par 4 and par 5 holes, y is the overall GIR% for the hole from the fairway, and z is the overall GIR% for the hole from the fairway for the par 4 and par 5 holes. If the predicted outcome of the first hole event is missing the fairway, the historical statistics correspond to past occurrences of hitting the green from off the fairway, where x is the player's GIR% from off the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, y is the aggregate GIR% for holes from off the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, and z is the overall GIR% for holes from off the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes.In any of the above or other examples, the first hole event probability for a par 3 hole is the probability that the player will hit the green off the green, where x is the player's GIR% for the par 3 hole, y is the aggregate GIR% for the hole, and z is the overall GIR% for the par 3 hole.

[0021] In any of the above or other examples, the one or more predicted hole event outcomes for each hole are binary.

[0022] In any of the above or other examples, each hole is associated with multiple score probability distributions, each score probability distribution corresponding to a particular predicted hole event outcome or combination of predicted hole event outcomes for the hole. A score probability distribution may represent a historical score distribution for the hole considering the occurrence of each potential hole event outcome or combination thereof. Assigning the score probability distributions may include pairing one or more predicted hole event outcomes for the hole with the score probability distributions corresponding to the predicted hole event outcomes.

[0023] In any of the above or another example, calculating the one or more outcome probabilities includes calculating the probability of the predicted outcome, which includes analyzing simulations for the occurrence of the predicted outcome, and dividing the number of simulations predicting the occurrence of the predicted outcome by the number of total simulations. In one example, the one or more predicted outcomes include one or more hole scores or score ranges for one round of the tournament, one or more hole scores or score ranges for two or more rounds of the tournament, a hole event for one or more holes in one round of the tournament, a hole event for one or more holes in two or more rounds of the tournament, or a combination thereof. In any of the above or another example, the one or more predicted outcomes include a specific score or score within a specific range for one or more rounds or tournaments, a specific hole score for one or more holes in one or more rounds, or a combination thereof. In any of the above or another example, the one or more predicted outcomes include a ranking of players by finishing position in a round, a finishing position of players, a range of finishing positions for players, or a combination thereof. In any of the above or another example, the one or more predicted outcomes include the probability of a player finishing with the lowest round score, the probability of a player finishing with a round score within a specified ranking of finishing positions, or a combination thereof. In any of the above or other examples, the one or more predicted outcomes include a ranking of players by finishing position in one or more rounds of the tournament, a ranking of players by finishing position in the tournament, a finishing position of players in one or more rounds of the tournament, a range of finishing positions in one or more rounds of the tournament, winning the tournament, making the cut, the cut line, or a combination thereof.In any of the above or other examples, the one or more predicted outcomes comprise a ranking probability of the player by finishing position in one or more rounds of the tournament, a ranking probability of the player by finishing position in the tournament, a finishing position probability of the player in one or more rounds of the tournament, a probability of the player finishing within a finishing position range in one or more rounds of the tournament, a probability of the player winning the tournament, a probability of the player making the cut, a cutline probability, or a combination thereof. In one example, the predicted outcome probabilities comprise a winning probability, a top 10 probability, a cutline probability, and a cut probability.

[0024] In any of the above or other examples, updating the simulation may include replacing predicted hole scores with actual hole scores as players complete holes; updating predicted round scores to account for the replaced actual hole scores; summing the updated predicted round scores for all tournament rounds to generate updated predicted tournament scores for participating players; summing the updated predicted round scores for pre-cut rounds to establish an updated cut line; including predicted round scores for post-cut rounds in updated scores for players who qualify; and not including predicted round scores for post-cut rounds in updated scores for players who do not qualify.

[0025] In the above or another example, simulation updates may occur at intervals of less than 30 seconds during play as actual live score data is received. In one example, updates may occur at intervals of less than 20 seconds, less than 15 seconds, less than 10 seconds, or less than 5 seconds. Updates may also be based on score or shot events occurring during actual tournament play.

[0026] In this or another example, simulation updates occur during play of the actual golf event until the end of the event.

[0027] In the above or another example, the method further includes transferring each player's information to a database using a player ID and a timestamp to display updated probabilities, enabling digital trending across broadcast television and digital platforms.

[0028] In a further aspect, a machine-readable medium is provided that carries machine-readable instructions that, when executed by a processor of the machine, cause the machine to perform the above-described methods, including any combination of the associated embodiments.

[0029] In a further aspect, a system is provided that includes a processor and a storage medium storing instructions that, when executed by the processor, cause the system to perform the above-described method, including any combination of associated embodiments. In a further aspect, the golf tournament simulation modeling system may include a statistical database containing historical statistics of golf play. The hole event probability generator may be configured to use historical statistical information to generate one or more hole event probabilities for each hole in each round of the golf tournament based at least in part on the historical statistical information. The hole event result generator may be configured to generate hole event outcomes using the hole event probabilities as weights. The hole event result generator may include or be configured to access the operation of a weighted result generator configured to generate hole event outcomes using the hole event probabilities as weights. The hole score generator may be configured to assign a score probability distribution for each hole based on the one or more hole event results generated for the hole. The hole score generator may include or be configured to access the operation of a score distribution engine configured to generate or provide hole score probability distributions for potential combinations of hole event outcomes. The hole score generator may include or be configured to access the operation of a random score generator configured to generate a random score based on the hole score probability distributions identified by the hole score generator. The prediction engine may be configured to output predictions for the golf tournament. The prediction engine may include a predicted outcome generator configured to generate predicted outcomes. Additionally or alternatively, the prediction engine may include a predicted outcome probability generator configured to generate probabilities of one or more predicted outcomes based on forecasting predicted outcomes in multiple simulations of the golf tournament.The update processor may be configured to update one or more predicted outcomes, probabilities of the predicted outcomes, or both, based on the inclusion of actual score data after actual play begins. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0030] The novel features of the described embodiments are set forth with particularity in the appended claims. The described embodiments, however, both as to organization and method of operation, may best be understood by reference to the following description taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings:

[0031] FIG. 1 illustrates a simulation method for generating predicted round or tournament scores according to various embodiments described herein;

[0032] FIG. 2 illustrates further aspects to the simulation method of FIG. 1 for applying cutlines according to various embodiments described herein;

[0033] 3 illustrates a further aspect to the simulation method of FIG. 1 for applying cutlines in addition to or in place of the aspect shown in FIG. 3 according to various embodiments described herein;

[0034] FIG. 4 illustrates further aspects of a simulation method for generating predicted finishing positions according to various embodiments described herein;

[0035] FIG. 5 illustrates further aspects of a simulation method for generating predicted finishing rank probabilities according to various embodiments described herein;

[0036] FIG. 6 illustrates further aspects of a simulation method for generating probabilities of predicted outcomes according to various embodiments described herein;

[0037] FIG. 7 is a diagram that schematically illustrates implementation logic of an update processor for updating predicted outcomes, probabilities of predicted outcomes, or both, based on substitution of actual scores for predicted scores, in accordance with various embodiments described herein;

[0038] FIG. 8 illustrates an actual score substitution method for updating predicted outcomes, probabilities, or both, for a simulation model according to various embodiments described herein;

[0039] FIG. 9 illustrates a simulation modeling method according to various embodiments described herein;

[0040] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a simulation modeling system according to various embodiments described herein;

[0041] FIG. 11 is a schematic diagram of a machine in the form of a computer system that, when executed, a set of instructions can cause the machine to perform simulation modeling to generate predicted outcomes and their probabilities, in accordance with various embodiments described herein. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0042] Points systems play a critical role during the tour season. Accumulated points are used to rank players to qualify for current and future season events, tournaments, categories, and tours. There are countless variations on point systems. For example, players typically accumulate points over the tour dates based on tournament placements, with first-place finishes receiving the largest point allocations and subsequent placements receiving progressively smaller point allocations. However, different tournaments may apply different point allocations in terms of expected finishing position, total available point allocations, or both. Not all players are able to participate in every tournament, and even those who are able to participate may choose not to play in certain tournaments or fail to place in the money and therefore not receive points. To provide the best product for both players and fans, it is essential for tour organizers to identify a fair points system that also generates excitement throughout the season.

[0043] During a tour season, both before a tournament and during tournament play, predictions of tournament performance for players, the field, or both can be a valuable tool for tournament organizers and players regarding event scheduling, broadcast production, playing decisions, etc. They can also increase fan excitement by providing running projections that show how predicted performance dynamically changes during tournament play, with some players' actual performance exceeding and some players falling short of their predicted performance.

[0044] This disclosure describes various systems and methods for simulating golf play. FIGS. 1-11 illustrate various aspects of the simulation modeling systems and methods described herein. Referring generally to FIG. 10 , the simulation modeling system 10 may be configured to simulate various aspects of golf play and levels of such aspects and generate predictive model outputs resulting from the simulation. For example, the system 10 may be configured to simulate the play of a golf hole, the play of a portion of a golf hole, a golf round, a golf tournament, or a combination thereof. The simulation may correspond to a single round, multiple rounds of a tournament, a full tournament, multiple tournaments in a season, a full season, or as otherwise desired. In one embodiment, the system 10 may be configured to simulate golf play and generate predictions for such simulations to assess player risk, optimize season cadences and the number of specified events, and evaluate the impact of different tournament schedules, qualifications, and point systems across multiple tournament events or tour seasons to create new competitive systems.

[0045] The simulation modeling system 10 may include a hole event probability generator 20 configured to generate one or more hole event probabilities for a simulated hole. The system 10 may include or have access to a statistical database 12 consisting of historical player data 14, collective historical data 16, or both, which the hole event probability generator 20 can use to generate the hole event probabilities. The system 10 may include or have access to a hole event result generator 30 configured to generate hole event outcomes using the hole event probabilities as weights. In the illustrated embodiment, the hole event result generator 30 includes or has access to a weighted result generator 32 configured to generate hole event outcomes using the hole event probabilities as weights. The system 10 may include or have access to a hole score generator 40 configured to generate a hole score using the event results for each hole. The hole score generator 40 may include or have access to a score distribution engine 42 configured to generate or provide a probability distribution of hole scores for combinations of hole event outcomes. The hole score generator 40 may include or have access to a random score generator 44 configured to generate a random score based on the hole score probability distribution determined by the hole score generator 40. System 10 may include a prediction engine 60 configured to output predictions. Prediction engine 60 may include one or both of a predicted outcome generator 62 configured to generate predicted outcomes or a predicted outcome probability generator 64 configured to generate predicted outcome probabilities. In one example, the predicted outcome probabilities are based at least in part on predictions of predicted outcomes in multiple simulations of golf tournaments. In some embodiments, system 10 includes or accesses a modification engine 50. The modification engine may include one or more of a score adjuster 52 or a cutline implementer 54.The score adjuster 52 may be configured to adjust a player's score, e.g., hole score. As described in more detail below, in some embodiments, the score adjuster is configured to adjust the score based on the player's relative past round play with respect to the simulated round. The cutline enforcer 54 may be configured to execute a cutline protocol and apply a cutline to a post-cut score when a simulated pre-cut round score is insufficient to make the predicted or actual cut. In one embodiment, the system 10 includes an update processor 70 configured to update predicted outcomes, predicted outcome probabilities, or both, based on the inclusion of actual score data after the start of actual play. The predicted outcomes may include predicted round or tournament scores, finishing positions, make cuts, cut lines, etc. The predicted outcome probabilities may include predicted outcome probabilities based on analysis of multiple simulations.

[0046] In some implementations, the ratings, predictions, and probabilities (sometimes collectively referred to herein as predictions or predictive model outputs, or simply prediction outputs) may be based on historical player data 14, collective historical data 16, such as course statistics, player statistics, and, if applicable, PGA TOUR ShotLink® data. The predictive model outputs may include one or more of hole event outcomes, hole scores, hole placings, round scores, tournament scores, round finishing position probabilities, tournament finishing position probabilities, etc., for a single player or multiple players. In some embodiments, the system 10 may be configured to generate a predictive output selected from one or more of a player's predicted round score, tournament score, round placing, or tournament finishing position. In one configuration, the predictive model output corresponds to a player finishing in a specified finishing position or range of finishing positions. For example, the predicted outcome probability generator 64 may be configured to generate predictive model outputs including one or more of a player's probability of winning or a top-10 finish in a golf tournament based on historical player data 14, collective historical data 16, such as course statistics, player statistics, and, if applicable, PGA TOUR ShotLink® data. Additionally or alternatively, the cutline implementer 54 may be configured to implement a cutline, and the predicted outcome generator 62 may be configured to generate predictive outputs that predict a cutline value / target score to make the cut, a player who will make the cut, or both. The predictive outputs may be made available before the start of the corresponding tournament, during competition, or both. For example, the simulation modeling system 10 may be configured to estimate each player's winning probability before a golf event is played. In this manner, predictions may be generated for use before the start of a round, tournament, or season.In some configurations, system 10 is additionally or alternatively configured to generate in-round or updated predictions continuously, periodically, or on demand during live tournament play, for example, by employing a hybrid simulation model that substitutes actual hole event outcomes or scores of play that have occurred with simulation model outcomes of hole events or scores that have not yet occurred, via update processor 70.

[0047] The generated simulation can emulate each hole of a tournament round, typically four rounds, for each player in the field using historical playing statistics (including historical player data specific to the actual player for whom the simulation is generated, historical data 16 of a group of players similar to the player for whom the simulation is generated, e.g., playing at the same or similar level, or a combination thereof) that may be stored in a statistics database 12. For example, historical statistics may be obtained from the PGA Tour's ShotLink® statistical data archive and may be specific to a player, as well as aggregate statistics of competitors from previous tournaments. The historical statistics applied to a simulated hole may be specific to that hole, for example, with respect to the hole event of that hole, correspond to holes with similar attributes (e.g., par value, dogleg, elevation change, etc.), or be applied generally without consideration of the hole or hole attributes.

[0048] In various embodiments, system 10 may run a single simulation of a hole, a round, multiple rounds, or a tournament for a single player, multiple players, or all players. In one example, predicted outcomes generator 62 generates predicted outcomes for one or more holes, rounds, multiple rounds, or a tournament, such as predicted scores for one or more holes, scores for a particular round, or scores over multiple rounds, or a tournament. Additional examples of predicted outcomes include, but are not limited to, predicted cutline values, cutline predictions for a player, predicted finishing positions or ranges of finishing positions for one or more players, or combinations thereof.

[0049] In some embodiments, system 10 may be configured to run multiple simulations, e.g., hundreds or thousands of simulations. In one example, predicted outcome probability generator 64 is configured to generate predicted outcome probabilities for one or more holes (e.g., probability of scoring a birdie on a particular hole or set of holes, probability of scoring under par over a particular number of holes, etc.), a round (e.g., probability of scoring par or better, probability of scoring 3-under in the second round, etc.), multiple rounds (e.g., probability of finishing in the top 5 in the first two rounds), or a tournament (e.g., probability of finishing in the top 5, probability of scoring 10-under or better, etc.). Additional examples of predicted outcome probabilities include, but are not limited to, probabilities of a cut line value or range of values, the probability of a player making the cut, the probability of a finishing position or the probability of a player finishing within a range of finishing positions, or combinations thereof. According to one methodology, system 10 may be configured to establish a win probability prediction (which may also be referred to herein as a type of predicted outcome probability consisting of predicted finishing position probability) for a player or players, such as each player in a tournament field, based on the number of times the player finished first in individual simulations of the event divided by the total number of simulations run. In one embodiment, system 10 may be further configured to update the probability of winning or other predicted outcome via update processor 70 during the actual event when the actual scores are posted by running a simulation on the remaining holes and combining the simulated scores with the actual scores for the holes played.

[0050] As introduced above and described in more detail below, system 10 may be configured to generate a simulation that outputs a cutline prediction via prediction engine 60. Additionally or alternatively, system 10 may implement a cutline in a simulation via cutline implementer 54. For example, in a tournament simulation, the cutline may be based on a pre-cut round simulation and may exclude a player from a post-cut round simulation of a first tournament simulation if the pre-cut round simulation results in the player not making the cut according to tournament rules, such as being in the top (x) number of players after (y) holes, being within (z) strokes of the leader after (y) holes, or both. In one example, the cutline may be implemented by cutline implementer 54 after the first 36 holes (e.g., two rounds). However, because many tournament simulations may be run for a particular tournament, a second tournament simulation may result in the player making the cut, and therefore, the player's play is simulated in such tournament simulation in which the player is simulated to make the cut. In some embodiments, every round may be simulated for every player. If a player does not make a cut in a simulation based on pre-cut results, cutline executor 54 executes the cutline and update processor 70 excludes post-cut simulation results. However, if actual play changes the actual or predicted cutline such that a player makes or is predicted to make a cut, update processor 70 can be configured to incorporate not only that player's post-cut simulation results, but also their impact on the predictions of other players. In this way, system 10 can dynamically update field prediction results based on actual play.In various embodiments described herein, if a player is predicted to miss the applicable tournament cut, the predicted tournament scores may include only predicted round scores for pre-cut rounds. It will be understood that such predicted tournament scores may be tagged, otherwise marked, or organized to correspond only to pre-cut rounds. For example, the predicted tournament scores of a player predicted to miss the cut may be marked as not making the cut or may be grouped or listed with the predicted scores of players predicted not to make the cut.

[0051] FIG. 1 illustrates a simulation method 100 that system 10 may be configured to perform according to various embodiments to generate one or more of a predicted hole score consisting of predicted hole scores (unadjusted) 112 (via the operation of hole event probability generator 20, hole event result generator 30, and hole score generator), a predicted hole score consisting of adjusted predicted hole scores 116 (via the operation of score adjuster 52), or a predicted (adjusted or unadjusted) predicted round score 120 (via the operation of predicted results generator 62). In various embodiments, method 100 may further include running a simulation of multiple rounds in a simulated golf tournament to generate a predicted (adjusted or unadjusted) tournament score 128. In some embodiments, the multiple predicted round scores may be used to implement a cut line for a player or identify a cut line for the field (see, e.g., FIGS. 2 and 3). In further embodiments, method 100, or its generated output, may be further utilized within a method for generating a predicted round or tournament finishing standings (via the operation of predicted results generator 62). Also, as described in further detail below, e.g., with respect to FIG. 5, in further embodiments, the method or its generated output may be further utilized within a method for generating performance termination probabilities (via operation of predicted outcome probability generator 64).

[0052] 1 in conjunction with FIG. 10, the hole event probability generator 20 may be configured to calculate event probabilities 102 for one or more hole events for a hole. The hole events may include events related to the hole that may be performed by a player during play of the hole. Exemplary hole events include, but are not limited to, an off-tee hole event, one or more sequential shot hole events, or a combination thereof.

[0053] The system 10 may provide a flexible platform capable of generating simulations utilizing actual historical performance data of players. For example, the system may be configured to generate hole event probabilities based on actual historical data, which may be referred to herein as past occurrence data and may include past player data 14, collective historical data 16, or both. The past player data 14 includes statistics specific to the player being simulated. In one example, the past player data 14 includes statistics corresponding to past occurrences of hole events. The collective historical data 16 includes collective statistics of multiple players, e.g., one or more season averages of all similarly situated competitors competing at the same or similar level of play. For example, collective historical data 16 for use in a PGA Tour simulation may be obtained from PGA Tour statistics relating to the overall play of the competitors, such as PGA Tour averages. In one example, the collective historical data 16 includes statistics corresponding to the collective past occurrences of hole events generally, for multiple holes or for a particular hole for which the hole events are being simulated. For example, for a hit-green hole event on the 4th hole of a PGA Tour tournament played on the Copperhead Course, the aggregate historical occurrence statistic may be the PGA Tour greens-in-regulation ("GIR") % for all par-3 holes during tournament play over one or more PGA Tour seasons or portions thereof, or the average PGA Tour GIR % for the 4th hole on the Copperhead Course during tournament play over one or more PGA Tour seasons or portions thereof. As another example, some tournaments may be played by players from multiple tours, such as the U.S. Open. The aggregate historical data, e.g., occurrence, statistics, may be obtained from play on one, all, or any combination of tours. In a further example, the statistics used may be taken from play on tours featuring the particular player being simulated.

[0054] Historical player data 14 may include statistical percentages or relative occurrences of hole events that a player performed during play. In one configuration, such historical play statistics may be specific to hole attributes corresponding to the hole for which the hole events are simulated. For example, statistics for holes having similar hole attributes, such as par values, may be used to generate one or more hole event probabilities for the simulated holes. In one example, statistics corresponding to the past occurrence of a hole event on a par-3 hole may be used to calculate the probability of the corresponding hole event occurring in a simulation for the par-3 hole. In a further example, historical player data 14 including statistics corresponding to the past occurrence of a hole event on a par-4 hole may be used for one or more hole events for the par-4 hole, while statistics corresponding to hole events on a par-5 hole may be used for one or more hole events for the par-5 hole. In one configuration, historical player data 14 consisting of statistics corresponding to past occurrences of hole events on par-3 holes may be used in one or more hole simulations for the par-3 holes, and statistics corresponding to past occurrences of hole events on par-4 holes and par-5 holes may be used in simulations for one or more simulated hole events for the par-4 holes and par-5 holes. As described in more detail below, in some embodiments, multiple hole event results may be generated for all or some holes in a round. In some such configurations, statistics corresponding to past occurrences of some hole events on one or more simulated holes correspond to attributes such as par value of the simulated hole, while statistics used for one or more other hole events on one or more simulated holes may correspond to different hole attributes or may be hole attribute neutral.Thus, a hole may have multiple hole events, and the statistics used to calculate the probability of a first hole event may be collected from the play of an actual hole having a first hole attribute similar to the simulated hole, while the statistics used to calculate the probability of a second hole event for that hole may be collected from the play of an actual hole having a second hole attribute similar to the simulated hole but different from the first hole attribute, or may be collected from the play of all holes regardless of attribute. While historical player data 14, which consists of statistics corresponding to the occurrence of simulated hole events for a player, is generally described herein as corresponding to the player on multiple holes rather than the play of a particular simulated hole, in some embodiments, historical player data 14, which consists of player statistics related to the play of a simulated hole, may additionally or alternatively be utilized to generate hole event probabilities for a hole. In one embodiment, historical player data 14, which consists of statistics, may be obtained for an entire available period, round, or season. Additionally or alternatively, statistics may be obtained for a predetermined period, number of rounds, or season or partial season, which may include only the current season or a previous season.

[0055] The aggregate historical data 16 may be obtained from the play of a specific simulated hole, holes in general, or holes with similar attributes to the simulated hole. The aggregate historical data 16 may consist of aggregate statistics corresponding to the historical performance of hole events by multiple players, such as the occurrence or relative occurrence of hole events from players competing at a similar level to the simulated player, which, in the case of a simulation of professional play, may include professional tournament competition. Professional tournament performance may also be broken down by level, such as tier, tour, league, etc. In some embodiments, the aggregate statistics regarding the occurrence of hole events may be selected to be representative of the level of competition being simulated.

[0056] In one configuration, the collective historical data 16 used to calculate hole event probabilities may be taken from historical statistics of actual play on holes with similar hole attributes as the hole being simulated. For example, historical occurrences of hole events on par-3 holes may be used to simulate par-3 holes, par-4 holes may be used to simulate par-4 holes, and par-5 holes may be used to simulate par-5 holes. In one configuration, historical occurrences of hole events on par-3 holes may be used to simulate par-3 holes, and a combination of historical occurrences of hole events on par-4 and par-5 holes may be used to simulate par-4 and par-5 holes. As described in more detail below, in some embodiments, multiple hole event outcomes may be generated for all or some of the holes in a round. In some such configurations, historical occurrences of some hole events for one or more holes may correspond to attributes such as the par value of the hole, while one or more hole events for one or more holes may correspond to different hole attributes or represent a general collective historical occurrence of the event for the player's play of all holes.

[0057] In addition to, or instead of, utilizing collective historical data 16 comprising statistics corresponding to the occurrence of hole events for play on multiple courses to determine hole event probabilities, hole event probability generator 20 may utilize statistics corresponding to the collective past occurrence of hole events for collective play on the actual holes being simulated. For example, hole event probabilities may be generated based at least in part on the actual collective past occurrence of hole events on the holes. In various embodiments, hole event probabilities may be based on past player statistics regarding the occurrence of hole events and collective historical statistics regarding the occurrence of hole events, both general and specific to the simulated hole.

[0058] In some embodiments, collective historical data 16 for multiple courses, collective historical data 16 for holes, historical player data 14 for a simulated player, or a combination thereof, may be obtained over an available period, round, or season. Additionally or alternatively, statistics may be taken over a predetermined period, number of rounds, or a season or partial season that includes only the current season or a previous season. In various embodiments, collective historical data and historical player data may be obtained for different periods, seasons, or otherwise relative to one another. For example, collective historical data, such as course statistics, may be based on a three- to five-year average, which may depend on availability and relevance due to changes, such as course changes. Historical player data, such as player statistics, may be based on a shorter period, such as a one- to three-year rolling average. In a further example, the rolling average is weighted toward more frequent play due to relevance to the current tournament. In some examples, the hole event probability generator 20 is configured to employ a recency weighting that weights more recent data points more heavily than the previous recent data point. The weighting may be progressive. For example, available statistics over a period of time, such as a number of seasons, e.g., five seasons, are used, and data points corresponding to the most recent season with respect to the occurrence of hole events are weighted so that they influence the statistics more heavily than the previous most recent season. In some embodiments, the same weight is applied to multiple seasons or blocks, while different weights or no weights are applied to other seasons. In another example, data points from each of a number of seasons are weighted progressively, with the most weight applied to data points from the most recent season. While seasons are used above and elsewhere herein to describe exemplary weighting schemes, it should be understood that many weighting schemes may be applied additionally or alternatively.For example, because the levels of play of competitors in a particular tournament may vary, tournaments may be divided into groupings that more closely correspond to the expected levels of play. For example, when simulating a major tournament (e.g., the Masters, U.S. Open, British Open Championship, PGA Championship), hole event probability generator 20 may give more weight to data points collected from major tournaments, and when simulating a non-major tournament of a similar level, hole event probability generator 20 may give more weight to data points collected from one or more tiers of non-major tournaments. As described above, statistics regarding the past occurrence of hole events may be selected to correspond to the level of play being simulated. For example, statistics corresponding to a tour may be used in connection with simulating play on that tour. However, in some embodiments, statistics corresponding to multiple tours may be used, e.g., where the levels of play correspond.

[0059] As introduced above, various hole events can be used. For example, a hole event can include an off-tee hole event, a subsequent shot hole event, e.g., second or third, or both. In various embodiments, the off-tee hole event, the subsequent shot hole event, or both can include shot location attributes. For example, the off-tee or subsequent shot location can include outcomes such as fairway, non-fairway, green, rough, hazard / sand, native area, out of bounds, or other area of ​​the hole. The historical occurrence data used to generate the probability of a particular hole event outcome can include, for a player or a group of players, the historical occurrence of a hole event corresponding to the off-tee or subsequent shot hole event.

[0060] In some embodiments where a hole includes multiple hole events, one hole event outcome generated in step 104 specifies historical occurrence data that the system uses to calculate the probability of a second hole event. For example, the first hole event on a par 4 is hitting the fairway (example outcomes: hitting the fairway, missing the fairway), and the second hole event is hitting the green (example outcomes: hitting the green, missing the green). The hole event probability generator 20 can use historical occurrence data for off-tee shots hitting the fairway to generate a hit-fairway or miss-fairway outcome for the first hole event to calculate the probability of hitting the fairway. If the outcome of the first hole event is hitting the fairway, the hole event probability generator 20 can use the historical occurrence data for GIR% from the fairway to calculate the probability of GIR from a location other than the fairway. If the outcome of the first hole event is missing the fairway, the hole event probability generator 20 can use historical occurrence data for GIR% from off-fairway to calculate the probability of GIR from a location other than the fairway.

[0061] According to various embodiments, a hole event can include the number of putts or score when another hole event occurs, such as a ground-in-return (GIR) approach shot from the fairway, rough, sand bunker, natural area, etc. In one example, a hole event following a generated miss-green result of a previous hole event includes a scramble or such a scramble and utilizes historical scramble occurrence data. In yet another example, the result of the previous hole event includes a location, and the historical scramble occurrence data is based on a scramble from the resulting location. In some embodiments, the generated location result includes a sand bunker, and the subsequent hole event includes a sand save or no sand save, and the historical occurrence data used to generate the result utilizes historical sand save occurrence data. Additionally or alternatively, an off-tee or subsequent shot location hole event may include a distance result within a predefined distance from the hole on the green, e.g., within 5', within 10', between 10' and 15', or from >20', for example, a putt hole event, a scramble hole event, or a sand save hole event. In one example, an off-tee hole event may include driving distance, such as the percentage of hole yardage covered by the tee shot. In a further example, the utilized historical occurrence data may be specific to a hole's par attribute, such as the percentage of hole yardage covered by a par 4 tee shot or the percentage of hole yardage covered by a par 5 tee shot. As another example, a first hole event may include sand location, and a second hole event may correspond to a GIR or sand save from the sand. As discussed above, potential outcomes may include distances or distance components related to locations such as from 30 yards or more, from 20-30 yards, from 10-20 yards, from less than 10 yards, etc. In such cases, the utilized historical occurrence data may correspond to relevant statistics regarding the generated outcome.In one embodiment, hole event probability generator 20 is configured to apply a player's historical occurrence statistics for hole events, aggregate historical occurrence statistics for holes, and historical occurrence statistics for general holes, which may include holes with similar attributes, to the hole events described herein.

[0062] The calculation 102 of one or more hole event probabilities for a hole (e.g., via hole event probability generator 20) can utilize various probability models. In one configuration, hole event probability generator 20, according to one example of step 102, may calculate hole event probabilities employing a modified adaptation of the log5 formula from the 1983 Bill James Baseball Abstract credited to Dallas Adams, which may be referred to as a log5(M) event probability model.

number

[0063] According to one embodiment, multiple historical player data and collective historical data are used, where x = the past occurrence of a player performing a hole event, y = the collective past occurrence of a hole event on a particular hole, and z = the collective past occurrence (performance) of a hole event during play on multiple courses, which may include holes with similar attributes to the hole being played, as described above and elsewhere herein. The collective historical data, the past player data, or both, may take data points over an available period, a predetermined period, or both. Some embodiments may incorporate alternative approaches when data is unavailable, missing, or incomplete. For example, generalized probabilities may be applied when player data is insufficient. In some embodiments, more recent statistics may be given more weight.

[0064] As introduced above, the hole event result generator 30 may utilize the output probabilities as weights to generate predicted hole outcomes for each hole event 104. The outcome generation function may be performed in a variety of ways. In one example, the hole event result generator 30 utilizes a weighted random outcome generator 32 that uses the generated hole event probabilities as weights to perform the outcome generation function. In some embodiments, the method 100 may also include assigning one or more hole events to each hole for which respective hole event probabilities are calculated and respective corresponding hole event outcomes are generated.

[0065] Some or all holes may include multiple hole events for which probabilities are calculated and corresponding outcomes are generated. Thus, some simulated holes on a course may be associated with fewer or more hole events than one or more other holes on the course. In various embodiments, the potential outcomes of hole events may be expressed as binary, ternary, quaternary, or quinary numbers, or as a binary, ternary, quaternary, or quinary number to match the number of events simulated for the hole. For example, with respect to a binary potential outcome of a hole event, the hole event probability applies to two potential outcomes, such as hitting the fairway or missing the fairway. The potential outcomes may be abbreviated, for example, as "1" for a positive outcome (hitting the fairway, hitting the green) or "0" for a negative outcome (missing the fairway, missing the green). Thus, using the binary example, a hole outcome involving one hole event may be represented as either (1) or (0). A hole outcome involving one hole event can be represented as (1,1), (0,1), (1,0), or (0,0). As introduced above, in some embodiments, a second hole event on a hole requires a determination of the outcome of the first hole event, for example, to identify historical occurrence data or hole event outcomes applicable to the second hole event.

[0066] The hole score generator 40 may be configured to assign a score probability distribution for the hole corresponding to the predicted hole outcome 106 using the generated hole outcome, e.g., (1, 0, 2), (0), (1, 1), etc. In various embodiments, the hole event outcome generator 30 identifies a score probability distribution from a plurality of predefined score probability distributions, each assigned to a predicted hole outcome for one or more hole events. The score probability distribution for each hole outcome combination may be obtained or generated for each hole, for example, by the score distribution engine 42. The score probability distribution is typically generated before play and may be applied identically to each player. In one example, the score probability distribution may represent a historical distribution of scores for the hole corresponding to the hole event outcome combination generated for the hole. In one embodiment, the score probability distribution corresponds to the historical score distribution when a hole event outcome combination exists. For example, the score probability distribution may be hole-specific using the hole's collective past scoring for a hole-event combination, specific to collective historical data for holes in general or for hole-event combinations for similar par holes, e.g., par-3 holes, par-4 / 5 holes, specific to a player's past scoring for holes in general or for hole-event combinations for similar par holes, e.g., par-3 holes, par-4 / 5 holes, or a combination thereof. As discussed above with respect to historical occurrence data, in some embodiments, the score distribution engine 42 may select a historical distribution to encompass a predetermined period or number of seasons. In yet another example, recursive weighting may be applied by the score distribution engine 42 to weight more recent data points more heavily than older data points. However, in other examples, the score probability distribution may be based on score distributions for holes with similar attributes, e.g., par type, specific to a player or group of players, or a combination thereof.

[0067] Utilizing the score probability distribution assigned to the hole based on a combination of simulated hole outcomes, the hole score generator 40 may be configured to generate a predicted hole score for the hole 108. Various methods can be used to generate a predicted hole score using the assigned score probability distribution. For example, the hole score generator 40 may be configured to select a randomized score based on an assigned historical probability distribution associated with scores of the same historical outcomes recorded for that particular hole based on the generated predicted hole event outcome or combination of predicted hole event outcomes. In one example, the hole score generator 40 is configured to generate a predicted hole score for the hole 108 using a random score generator 44 incorporating the assigned score probability distribution. The random score generator 44 can apply a particular score probability from the assigned distribution when randomly generating the hole score. As an example, the assigned hole distribution can be specified as follows: Triple bogey = 0.02 Double bogey = 0.03 Bogey = 0.15 Par=0.60 Birdie = 0.20 Eagle = 0.02 The random score generator 44 may, for example, randomly select scores from the distributions described above, with the availability of each score option for random selection defined by its relative distribution.

[0068] The hole score generator 40 may output a predicted hole score (unadjusted) 112. Additionally or alternatively, the system 10 may repeat generating a predicted hole score for each hole 110 to generate a predicted hole score (unadjusted) 112 for each hole. The prediction engine 60 may also be configured to sum 118 the predicted hole scores for the round to calculate a predicted round score 120. In some embodiments, the method may involve outputting a predicted hole round score 120 for the player. However, in further embodiments, the system 10 may be configured to further simulate 122, 124 additional rounds of the tournament to generate a predicted tournament score 128. For example, in the case of a multi-round golf tournament, the system 10 may be configured to repeat generating predicted hole scores for all rounds of the simulated golf tournament, which the prediction engine 60 may sum 122, 124 to output a predicted tournament score 128 for the player.

[0069] In yet another embodiment, modification engine 50 may be configured to apply score adjuster 52 to the predicted score to generate an adjusted score. One or more score adjustments, such as a score difference adjustment, may be applied 114 to the predicted hole score to generate an adjusted predicted score 116. Various adjustments may be employed. For example, player-specific adjustments may include adjusting hole or predicted round scores using the player's historical scoring data. In various embodiments, score adjuster 52 may be configured to adjust a player's score based on situational differences in the player's average score. Contextual factors may include chronological (e.g., recent good or bad performance), seasonal (e.g., fall, winter, spring, summer), geographic (e.g., type of terrain or style of the course, elevation of the course, geographic location or region of the course), environmental (e.g., specific weather conditions, e.g., heat, cold, humidity, rain), tournament schedule (e.g., a particular tournament, a major tournament, an early-season tournament, a late-season tournament, a tournament after missing the cut, a tournament after a week off, etc.), or round schedule (e.g., rounds in a particular tournament). For example, there may be a difference between a player's average score and the average scores of other players with respect to a particular course, round, weather conditions, elevation, time of year, or a combination thereof. As another example, there may be a difference between a player's average score and the player's score when playing in a particular situation, such as any of those described above. In some embodiments, different situational difference adjustments may be applied to different players based on the existence of statistically significant differences in the players' average scores in situations relevant to the simulated play. For example, if the simulation is of a round played on a desert course early in a tournament season, a difference adjustment may be applied to a player for whom a score difference exists in one or both of these situations. As an example, the system may track situational differences in a player's score and consider one or more of those differences when relevant to the simulation through a score difference adjustment.In some embodiments, the one or more circumstances used for the score difference adjustment are the same for all participating players. In one configuration, the circumstances are the specific tournament round being simulated, and the difference adjustment can include a round-specific component that captures the difference in the player's performance in the specific round being simulated, e.g., the second round, relative to the player's broader average scoring performance. For example, the score for a hole or round may be adjusted for the currently simulated round by a player-specific difference adjustment factor based on the player's historical scoring average difference, e.g., the player's relative season average score. For example, the difference between the rolling average for the current season or other period, e.g., the period or season, and the player's broader scoring average for that particular round may be applied. The difference adjustment may be applied, for example, to the score for the round, or it may be divided by 18 and applied to the score for each hole in the round as an adjustment factor. As an example, a rolling average for the past few weeks or months may be used. In any of the above examples, the scoring average may be weighted so that more recent performances are given more weight than older performances. For example, if available, a rolling average over the past 52 weeks may be used to generate the differential adjustment factor, and may be weighted toward more recent performances. In some embodiments, if a player's scores over the entire rolling period are not available, available scores from a shorter period may be used. In some embodiments, a rolling average of the past number of available tournament scores may be used, which may include weighting.

[0070] In one approach, the differential adjustment is made by adding or subtracting, as the case may be, the difference in the player's relative score average for the round being simulated. For example, a player with a round average score (total tournament score divided by the number of tournament rounds) of 72 for all rounds in a tournament might have an average score of 71 for the third round of the tournament. Thus, in simulating the third round of play, the predicted round score can be subtracted by −1, the player's average score difference for that round, to generate an adjusted predicted round score. Similarly, to adjust the predicted hole score rather than the predicted round score, the system 10 can divide the average score difference for the round by the number of holes in the round, e.g., 18, to obtain a differential adjustment factor for the player's average hole score difference for the round, which in this example is approximately −0.06. Thus, −0.06 can be subtracted from each unadjusted predicted hole score to generate an adjusted predicted hole score. Such hole-by-hole score adjustments can be used so that differential adjustment factors remain for the remaining holes played in that round when substituting each simulated hole score for the hole's actual score.

[0071] In some embodiments, additional or alternative player-specific adjustments may be utilized. For example, a player-specific differential adjustment may include an adjustment for the player relative to the field in a simulated round or tournament, or to the field in other rounds or tournaments. For example, after a predicted score for each hole in a round is established for an individual player, the score may be adjusted by the player's average relative score for the field over the current season or other predefined period or season. In a further example, a hole or round score may be adjusted based on the player's past score for the corresponding round. In the above or another example, a player's hole or round score may be adjusted based on the season average round score adjustment relative to the field and past score adjustments by course and round. In some embodiments, score adjuster 52 may apply a differential adjustment based on a player's scoring average specific to hole attributes. For example, a predicted hole score for a par-3 hole may be adjusted by the player's relative scoring average difference for the par-3 hole in the simulated round, while a predicted hole score for a par-4 and par-5 hole may be adjusted by the player's relative scoring average difference for the respective par-4 and par-5 holes in the simulated round.

[0072] Optionally, in some embodiments, after the adjustments are applied, score adjuster 52 may be configured to output an adjusted predicted score 116. Additionally or alternatively, system 10 may repeat generating the adjusted predicted hole scores for each hole. Predicted results generator 62 may also be configured to sum 118 the adjusted predicted hole scores for the round to calculate a predicted round score 120 (or adjusted predicted round score) comprised of the summed adjusted hole scores. In some embodiments, method 100 may complete with outputting a player's predicted round score 120 comprised of the summed adjusted or unadjusted predicted round scores. However, in further embodiments, system 10 may be configured to further perform simulations for all rounds of the tournament 122, 124 to calculate a predicted tournament score 128 comprised of the summed adjusted or unadjusted predicted round scores, or both. For example, in the case of a multi-round golf tournament, system 10 may be configured to repeat 122, 124 generating predicted hole scores for all rounds of the simulated golf tournament, summing the round scores, and outputting the adjusted predicted tournament score 128. Although the illustrated method 100 depicts applying differential adjustments to unadjusted predicted hole scores, in some embodiments, differential adjustments may be applied to unadjusted predicted round scores, unadjusted predicted tournament scores, or both, in addition to or instead of applying differential adjustments to unadjusted predicted hole scores.

[0073] In some embodiments, the system 10 may include a cutline enforcer 54 configured to apply a cutline (qualifying line) by applying a cutline protocol 124. The cutline is typically applied after one or more rounds of a tournament. If a player does not make the cut based on the scoring of the pre-cut round, the player does not play a post-cut round and does not receive a post-cut round score. Various cutline protocols may be used. For example, the system may be pre-programmed with a cutline or may be configured to identify a predicted cutline based, for example, on cutlines in past tournaments played on that course or similar courses. In some configurations, the cutline may be based on past cutlines on courses of similar difficulty determined from past collective scoring. In any of the above, the cutline protocol may further consider a player's performance on the same or similar courses. As described in more detail below with respect to Figures 2 and 3, the system 10 may be configured to generate a predicted cutline by simulating tournament play for each player or for each player actually competing to make the cut.

[0074] It should be understood that the simulation method may be run multiple times, for example, thousands of times, and the output scores may be summed and divided by the number of simulation runs to obtain an expanded average (adjusted or unadjusted) predicted score. In some embodiments, the system may be configured to perform averaging per simulated hole, per simulated round, per simulated tournament, or any combination thereof.

[0075] FIG. 2 illustrates an example cutline protocol 200 according to various embodiments. According to this protocol, the system 10 is configured to execute the simulation method of FIG. 1 to generate predicted round scores (adjusted or unadjusted) for each pre-cut round of the simulated tournament for each player competing in a tournament 202. The system 10 may sum 204 the predicted round scores (adjusted or unadjusted) for the pre-cut rounds. The cutline implementer 54 may set 206 a cutline according to the tournament rules and apply the cutline to identify players predicted to make the cut. After identifying players predicted to make the cut, the cutline implementer 54 may run 208 post-cut round simulations for players who will make the cut (qualify) according to FIG. 1 to obtain predicted scores (adjusted or unadjusted) for one or more players.

[0076] FIG. 3 illustrates an example cutline protocol 300. The cutline protocol 300 is similar to the cutline protocol 200, except that the cutline enforcer 54 runs simulations of both pre-cut and post-cut rounds and generates predicted round scores (adjusted or unadjusted) for each round of the simulated tournament for each competitor 302. The system 10 may sum the predicted round scores (adjusted or unadjusted) for the pre-cut rounds 304. The cutline enforcer 54 may set a cutline 306 according to tournament rules and apply the cutline to identify players who are predicted to make the cut in order to include their predicted round scores (adjusted or unadjusted) for the post-cut rounds in their predicted tournament scores 308. According to this protocol 300, the system 10 retains the predicted round scores (adjusted or unadjusted) for the post-cut rounds of players who missed the cut 310 for use in the prediction update protocol, if necessary. Because the cut line may move dynamically during actual play based on the updated predicted scores of participating players, cut line protocol 300 can be used, for example, during live tournament play to reduce calculations for updates based on actual data. When implementing cut line protocol 200, system 10 can run additional simulated rounds for players who are predicted to make the cut (qualify) based on their actual scores.

[0077] 4 illustrates an exemplary method 400 for generating predicted round finishes (finishing positions), predicted tournament finishes (finishing positions), or both, according to one embodiment. Method 400 includes executing relevant portions of the simulation method of FIG. 1 for participating players to generate predicted scores (adjusted or unadjusted). Predicted results generator 62 may rank 404 players by predicted scores (adjusted or unadjusted) and output predicted round finishes, predicted tournament finishes, or both, for one or more players.

[0078] As discussed elsewhere herein, method 100 and other similar methods described herein (which may include, in some examples, method 200, method 300, or method 400), or predicted outcome generator 62, may be used to generate predicted outcomes for a round or tournament simulation, such as a predicted cut line, a made or missed cut, a predicted score for one or more holes, rounds, or tournaments, or a predicted round or tournament finishing position. In additional or alternative embodiments, predicted outcome probability generator 64 may be configured to generate predicted outcome probabilities for predicted outcomes, which may include a cut line or finishing position, such as a probability of winning, a top-10 finish, etc.

[0079] FIG. 5 illustrates an exemplary method 500 for generating finishing position probabilities by running multiple simulation runs. The method 500 includes running the simulation method of FIG. 4 (n) times to obtain (n) predicted round / tournament finishing positions for a player competing in a tournament 502. The predicted outcome probability generator 64 may identify 504 simulations in which a specified finishing position occurs. For example, the performance finish may be a win or a top (x) position, such as a top 5, 10, 15, 20, etc. The predicted outcome probability generator 64 may divide 506 the number of simulations in which the specified finishing position occurs by (n) to output a performance probability finish for the specified finishing position. For example, if the specified finishing position is a win and Player 1 is predicted to win the tournament 370 times out of 3,000 simulation runs, a win probability of approximately 12.3% may be output. As another example, if the specified finishing position is a top 10 finish and Player 1 is predicted to finish in the top 10 in 2,200 times out of 3,000 simulation runs, a top 10 finish probability of approximately 73.3% may be output.

[0080] FIG. 6 illustrates an exemplary method 600 for running multiple simulation runs to generate outcome probabilities. The method 600 includes running the simulation method of FIG. 1 (n) times to obtain (n) predicted outcomes for one or more participating players 602. For example, if the outcome is a player's score on a particular hole, round, or tournament, the system 10 need only run multiple simulations for a player rather than all participating players. However, the system 10 may also run multiple simulations for some or all participating players, for example, to generate a predicted finishing position, cut line, or other predicted outcome from the simulation. The predicted outcome probability generator 64 may identify 604 the simulations for which a predicted outcome exists. The predicted outcome probability generator 64 may then divide 606 the number of simulations for which a predicted outcome exists by the total number of simulations (n) to output outcome probabilities for the predicted outcome. For example, if the predicted outcome is making the cut, the system may run 5,000 simulations according to method 100 to generate predicted round scores (adjusted or unadjusted) and may further include running method 200 or method 300 for the participating players' pre-cut rounds. For Player 1, 3,779 simulation attempts output an approximately 75.56% probability of making the cut. As another example, if the predicted outcome is a cut line of +3, system 10 may run simulations similar to the example above, and predicted outcome probability generator 64 may identify simulations in which the cut line was +3. If 1,500 simulations resulted in a cut line of +3, a 30% probability of a cut line of +3 may be output. If the predicted outcome is a cut line of +3 or less and 3,000 simulations resulted in a cut line of +3 or less, a 60% probability of a cut line of +3 or less may be output.As yet another example, if the predicted outcome is an under-par score for a particular round, the system may run a simulation of the particular round to generate a predicted round score (adjusted or unadjusted) for the player and identify rounds in which the player recorded an under-par score. If the player recorded an under-par score in 2500 of 5000 simulations, the predicted outcome probability generator 64 may output a 50% probability of under-par. The predicted outcomes may include, for example, a finishing position, which ranks the player's scores in each simulation to identify a finishing position, as described with respect to FIG. 5.

[0081] As introduced above, the systems and methods described herein can include updating predictions based on actual scores. Predictions can be updated in real time as scores are received or at intervals as real-time scores are received to provide a hybrid simulation that includes a mix of actual and simulated data. In some embodiments, real-time updates can occur continuously during live play at predefined intervals, as actual scores are received, or both. In various embodiments, such hybrid simulation models can be implemented, for example, via a substitution scheme in which actual scores are replaced with simulated scores in all simulations across multiple simulation embodiments. For example, as each score is entered, the system can replace the corresponding predicted score with the actual score. In this manner, as actual scores are made, the system can replace the predicted scores with the actual scores and update associated outcome predictions (e.g., hole scores, round or tournament scores, cut-line values, made or missed cuts, finishing positions).

[0082] If the method includes generating predicted outcome or finishing position probabilities based on multiple simulation runs, the system may replace actual playing scores with corresponding predicted scores in every simulation and update predicted probabilities that may account for changes to participating players' predicted finishing positions or scores, cut lines, or other changes that may accompany updates in each simulation. For example, in situations where the system applies a cut line, the cut line may dynamically move based on the participating players' updated predicted scores. In this way, within a simulation run, players predicted to make the cut may change dynamically during play, and the system may include post-cut scores for players predicted to qualify from the predictions (e.g., scores, ranks, etc.) and exclude post-cut scores for players predicted not to qualify throughout tournament play. The system may also update probabilities because changes in each simulation may alter the probabilities generated from multiple simulations. For example, the system may update scores for every simulation, including taking into account changes to the cut line for each simulation, if used, and update associated predicted finishing positions and outcome probabilities based on updates across the simulations.

[0083] In one embodiment, the system is configured to generate a probability of winning, a probability of finishing in the top 10, a cutline value, a cut probability, or a combination thereof. Once the competition begins, the system is configured to update the predictions and probabilities based on actual scoring data. For example, the pre-competition prediction of the probability of winning is changed to a combination of actual scoring data and simulated scoring data. The model may then be configured to generate outputs estimating the probability of finishing in the top 10, a cutline value, a cut probability, or a combination thereof using the same approach as employed in the pre-competition phase, but with a permutation method.

[0084] FIG. 7 illustrates an exemplary update method 700 employing a substitution method. In one such example, the update processor 70 of the system 10 (FIG. 10) may be configured to substitute actual hole scores for predicted (adjusted or unadjusted) hole scores as players complete holes, e.g., continuously in real time, at predefined intervals, upon the occurrence of an event, or otherwise 702. The update processor 70 may update the predicted round scores (adjusted or unadjusted) to account for the substituted actual hole scores 704. The update processor 70, the prediction engine 60, or both may be configured to sum the updated predicted round scores (adjusted or unadjusted) for all tournament rounds to generate updated predicted tournament scores for participating players 706.

[0085] If system 10 is configured to employ a cut line, method 700 may include, during an update operation in the pre-cut round, summing the updated (adjusted or unadjusted) predicted round scores for the pre-cut round to establish an updated cut line 708. System 10, or its update processor 70, may be configured to include the updated predicted round scores (adjusted or unadjusted) for the post-cut round relative to the pre-cut round for players who make the cut (qualify), and exclude the updated predicted round scores (adjusted or unadjusted) for the post-cut round for players who do not make the cut (do not qualify) 710.

[0086] If method 700 includes generating predictions associated with finishing positions or outcomes, system 10 or its update processor 70 may further update the associated predicted round / tournament finishing positions or predicted results 712. If method 700 includes generating predicted outcome or performance probabilities from multiple simulations, system 10 may be configured to repeat the above steps of method 700 for each simulation run and update the associated predicted outcome probabilities and performance finishing probabilities 714. For example, update processor 70, predicted outcome probability generator 64, or both may be configured to identify simulations in which associated outcomes exist with respect to predicted outcome probabilities and update the probabilities as needed. Similarly, update processor 70, predicted outcome probability generator 64 may identify finishing positions associated with finishing position probabilities and update the probabilities as needed.

[0087] It will be appreciated that while the systems described herein may be configured or configurable to output predefined predictions, probabilities, or both, that are automatically and continuously updated in real time at intervals or upon the occurrence of one or more events, such as receipt of actual scores, in some embodiments, the system 10 may also be configured to be queried to output specific predictions, probabilities, or both derived from simulations, which may include hybrid simulations updated to include actual score data.

[0088] FIG. 8 is a schematic diagram of an exemplary replacement update processor 800. In various embodiments, update processor 70 constitutes update processor 800 or its functionality. In one approach, update processor 800 generates, for each participating player in the field, a container 804 containing only that particular player's data for each simulated tournament, which may be a single tournament simulation or multiple tournament simulations, e.g., hundreds or thousands. The scores for each simulated hole are maintained in a data file within container 804 and used to calculate the player's score for each round. For all player containers 804, processor 802 ingests a score feed incorporating actual score data 806 and may continually recalculate all probabilities for each player, which may, in some embodiments, include updated cut-line probabilities. As introduced above, this update process can be performed continuously in real time, at intervals, upon receipt of score data 806, or a combination thereof. The interval can be set, for example, approximately every 1 second, 2 seconds, 5 seconds, 10 seconds, 15 seconds, 20 seconds, 25 seconds, 30 seconds, 45 seconds, or 1 minute. In one embodiment, the update process is performed approximately every 5-60 seconds, 5-45 seconds, 5-30 seconds, 5-15 seconds, 5-10 seconds, less than every 5 seconds, 10 seconds, 15 seconds, 30 seconds, 45 seconds, or 1 minute. In one configuration, the update process is completed approximately every 15 seconds. In a further configuration, the update process is repeated every 5-15 seconds during play until the tournament is over. Additionally, the completion of an event, such as a shot played or a hole score, can initiate the update process. Output from the update process 800 can create a data file that can be loaded into a database, such as a Dynamo database, for consumption by one or more end-use applications. When a player completes a hole during actual tournament play, all simulated scores for that hole in that particular round may be replaced with actual scores from actual scoring data 806.In some embodiments, system 10 is configured to move each player's information into a database using player ID and timestamp to display updated probabilities and enable digital trending across television broadcasts and digital platforms such as fan websites and betting platforms.

[0089] As an illustration of the operation of the update processor 800 according to one embodiment, if player A scores a birdie on the first hole of round 1 of a tournament, then in all simulation runs, player A's score for the first hole of round 1 is set to birdie. In some cases, some simulation results may already be birdie, and the simulation results are not changed with respect to player A's score for the first hole of round 1. However, in simulations in which player A's score for the first hole of the first round is not birdie, player A's score for the first hole of the first round is updated to birdie in all such simulations to be consistent with the actual score data 806. The processor 802 is configured to recalculate all probabilities for each player and update the predicted probabilities. For example, if the predicted probabilities include a win probability, a cut line, a make-cut probability (probability of making the cut), and a top-10 finishing position probability, the processor 802 is configured to recalculate these probabilities and update the predicted probabilities based on the actual score data 806.

[0090] FIG. 9 illustrates an exemplary simulation method 900 for simulating a golf tournament that also generates predicted outcome probabilities that are updated with actual scores after play begins.

[0091] In step 902, the method includes retrieving relevant collective historical data and historical player data from a statistical database and running the statistical data through a hole event probability algorithm to generate off-tee location hole event probabilities. In one embodiment, a hole event probability generator is configured to retrieve the historical data. An off-tee hole event corresponds to where a player hits the ball off-tee. The potential outcomes of a hole event may include more than one location. The historical data used to generate the probabilities may include a representative occurrence, e.g., a percentage, of the ball being hit at an off-tee location. In the illustrated example, collective historical data and historical player data are utilized, although other data combinations may be utilized. For example, if the tournament is a PGA Tour tournament, the statistics used may correspond to tour averages and player averages for off-tee shots on holes having a par rating corresponding to the hole being simulated, such as utilizing tour averages for off-tee shots on a particular hole and statistics for off-tee shots on par-3 holes and statistics for off-tee shots on par-4 and par-5 holes. In another example, a par 5 hole may utilize specific statistics for par 5 holes. In the illustrated embodiment, if the hole is a par 3, the off-tee hole events of hitting the green are utilized, and if the hole is a par 4 or par 5, the off-tee hole events of hitting the fairway are utilized.

[0092] Statistics employed in the model include: Par 4 and Par 5 fairway hit percentage - player; Par 4 and Par 5 fairway hit percentage - hole; Par 4 and Par 5 fairway hit percentage - player; Par 4 and Par 5 non-fairway hit percentage - player; Par 4 and Par 5 green hit percentage from fairway - hole; Par 4 and Par 5 green hit percentage from non-fairway - hole; Par 3 green hit percentage; Player's average score per round; Score distribution for each hole; or any combination thereof.

[0093] As described above, collective historical data and past player data may be obtained over various available time periods, rounds, or seasons. Statistics may be obtained over a predetermined period, number of rounds, or season or partial season, which may include only the current season or previous seasons. In embodiments, collective historical data is obtained based on a multi-year average, and past player data may be less than collective historical data and, in one example, based on a rolling average that may be weighted for recurrence bias. In one example, collective historical data may be based on a three- to five-year average, which may depend on availability and relevance due to changes, such as course changes. Past player data, such as player statistics, may be based on a shorter period, such as a one- to three-year rolling average. In a further example, the rolling average is weighted toward more frequent play for relevance to the current tournament.

[0094] For a par 3 hole, the potential outcomes of the off-tee hole event in the illustrated example include hitting the green, which may be represented by a "1," and missing the green, which may be represented by a "0." The historical data used to generate the probabilities may include representative occurrences, such as the occurrence of a position for a player (GIR for a par 3 hole) and a collective average for that hole (tour average for GIR for that hole), and a collective average for par 3 holes (tour average for GIR for par 3 holes).

[0095] For a par 4 or par 5 hole, the potential outcomes of the off-tee hole event in the illustrated example include hitting the fairway, which may be represented by a "1," and missing the fairway, which may be represented by a "0." The historical data used to generate the probabilities may include representative occurrences, such as the percentage of location occurrences for a player (percentage of fairways hit on par 4 / par 5 holes), and the ensemble average for the hole (tour average for fairways hit on a hole), and the tour average for fairways hit on par 4 / par 5 holes (tour average for fairways hit on par 4 / par 5 holes).

[0096] In the illustrated embodiment, a weighted probability of an off-tee hole event corresponding to the par attribute 902 of the hole is generated. The statistics may be passed through a hole event probability algorithm to generate a green hit percentage (for par-3 holes) and a hit fairway % (for par-4 / par-5 holes). In one example, the hole event probability algorithm includes the log5(M) event probability model identified above, where x = the player's past occurrence of performing the hole event, y = the collective past occurrence of the hole event on a particular hole, and z = the collective past occurrence of the hole event during play on multiple courses. When applied to a par-3 hole in the hit green hole event, x = (player GIR % on par-3 holes), y = (hole GIR %), z = (tour GIR % on par-3 holes). When applied to a par-4 / par-5 hole in the hit fairway hole competition, x = (player hit fairway %), y = (hole hit fairway %), z = (tour hit fairway %).

[0097] Predicted hole event outcomes for off-tee location hole event probabilities can be generated 904 using the respective event probabilities as weights in a weighted random generator algorithm. The off-tee example provided above is binary. Therefore, a binary weighted random generator algorithm may be used. In the example for a par 4 hole where the probability value output from the event probability algorithm is 0.63, the binary random generator for hitting the fairway would be weighted for the hole event prediction to have a 63% chance of outputting a hit-fairway outcome and a 37% chance of outputting a miss-fairway outcome.

[0098] If the hole is a par 4 / par 5, the relevant collective historical data and past player GIR data may be retrieved from the statistics database 906 using the location of the off-tee hole event result as the statistical "from" location to calculate the hole event probability for the subsequent shot location. The hole event for the subsequent shot in this example is hitting the green, and the predicted hole event result of the off-tee hole event is used to identify the "from" location used to define the historical statistics used to generate the event probability of hitting the green. For example, if the output of step 904 is a hit-fairway result of the off-tee hole event prediction, the collective historical data and past player data retrieved in step 906 correspond to the hit-from location of the fairway. Therefore, the historical data used to generate the probability of hitting the green is the GIR% from the fairway, not the GIR% from the non-fairway. The historical data used to generate the event probability are representative occurrences, such as the percentage of occurrences of locations for the player (GIR for par 4 / par 5 holes), hole (tour average for GIR for hole), and par 4 / par 5 hole (tour average for GIR for par 4 / par 5 holes). Using the log5(M) probability model, x="player GIR% from fairway", y="hole GIR% from fairway", and z="tour GIR% from fairway". In the illustrated example, the potential outcomes of the subsequent shot-hole event include hitting the green, represented by a "1", and missing the green, represented by a "0".

[0099] In step 908, hole event outcome predictions are generated, similar to step 904. The predicted hole outcomes can be used to assign score probability distributions for the hole corresponding to the predicted hole outcome(s) 910. For example, if steps 904 and 908 return predicted hole outcomes of hit to fairway and hit to green, the hole event outcome combination is (1, 1), and the score probability distribution assigned to the hole is one that corresponds to the (1, 1) combination. For example, a set of score probability distributions is generated or provided, as the case may be, for each hole, including a score probability distribution corresponding to each hole event outcome or combination. The hole event distributions can be generated as described herein. In one example, the set of score probability distributions is based on historical score distributions for the same previous actual hole event outcomes recorded on that hole. As an example, a (1, 1) combination for a par 4 hole may correspond to the following score probability distribution: Triple bogey = 0.01 Double bogey = 0.02 Bogey = 0.10 Par=0.66 Birdie = 0.20 Eagle = 0.01

[0100] Using the identified probability distribution, a random score selector algorithm may be applied 912. Returning to the par 4 hole example, the random score selector algorithm may select par, so the player's score for this trial, for this round, for this hole is 4.

[0101] A round difference adjustment may be applied to a predicted hole or round score 914 using a player's round score average. As discussed above, the round score average may represent a player's relative performance difference for tournament rounds and is applied based on the day (round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4) on which the simulated round occurs for the tournament. For example, a player may score -0.36 better than average for a particular simulated round. Therefore, the score for this hole may be adjusted by applying a -0.02 point deduction for this hole in this round of the simulation. When applied to the current hole, the adjusted predicted hole score would be 3.98. As discussed above, the difference adjustment may be discretionary, and in some embodiments, the adjustment is applied to the round score rather than to individual hole scores.

[0102] The above method can be repeated for all holes and rounds of the tournament916.

[0103] The cutline protocol is applied in accordance with tournament rules 18. The cutline protocol may be applied as described above. In one embodiment, the cutline protocol is similar to that described with respect to FIG. 3, and a simulation is performed for all rounds of the tournament for each player, as this data may be needed during actual play for update operations. In one example, for each set of four rounds in each tournament trial, a cut is performed in accordance with tournament rules and applied to the field for that trial. The system counts 920 the simulated third and fourth rounds only for players who actually qualified or were predicted to qualify for that trial.

[0104] The above method can be repeated 922, for example, hundreds or thousands of times, to generate multiple simulation runs.

[0105] The outcome probabilities can be calculated based on the occurrence of outcomes in the simulation trials. Any desired outcome probabilities can be calculated, as described herein. In one example, the outcome probabilities include one or more of a win probability, a cut-line value probability, a top-10 finish probability, a probability of making the cut, or a combination thereof.

[0106] Winning percentages may be established as described above. In one example, before a tournament is played, a winning percentage is established for each player in the field based on the number of times a player has placed first in individual simulations of the event, divided by the total number of simulation runs. In some embodiments, the lowest-scoring player making the cut is identified as the winner of that simulation run. The total number of wins for each player is then added together to create a pre-tournament winning probability. In the event of a tie, each player with the lowest score may be awarded a fractional win. As an example, a fractional win may be calculated by dividing 1 by the number of players who had the lowest scores.

[0107] The results of the simulation runs are saved 926 for use in the update phase of the method. The updates may be performed during actual play of the tournament to update the outcome probabilities 928. The method may include continuing to calculate probabilities for each player after the tournament has begun. As described above, the updates may be performed continuously at predefined intervals, upon receiving updated scores, or a combination thereof. The updates may incorporate real-time score data that updates the outcome probabilities in real time. The updates may be performed, for example, as described above with respect to Figures 7 and 8 and the accompanying text.

[0108] The systems and methods disclosed herein may include additional functionality and features. For example, the operational functions of system 10 (FIG. 10) and methods may be configured to execute on a dedicated processor specially configured to perform the operations provided by system 10 and methods. Various embodiments of the present disclosure, including the exemplary functional operations described in this disclosure, may be implemented in digital electronic circuitry, in tactilely embodied computer software or firmware, in computer hardware including the structures disclosed herein and their structural equivalents, or in one or more combinations thereof. That is, various embodiments of the present disclosure may be implemented as one or more computer programs, i.e., one or more modules of computer program instructions encoded on a tangible-non-transitory computer-readable medium for execution by or to control the operation of a data processing device. The processes and logic flows described herein can be executed by one or more programmable computers executing one or more computer programs to perform functions by operating on input data and generating output. The processes and logic flows may also be executed by, or implement apparatus for, special-purpose logic circuitry, e.g., an FPGA (field-programmable gate array) or an ASIC (application-specific integrated circuit).

[0109] Notably, the operational features and functionality provided by system 10 and the methods may increase the efficiency of computing devices utilized to facilitate the functionality provided by system 10 and the various methods disclosed herein. For example, by utilizing the permutation methodology described herein, the selection of hole event probabilities described herein, and / or other information provided and / or generated by system 10, the amount of computer operations that need to be performed by devices within system 10 using the processor and memory of system 10 may be reduced compared to conventional methodologies. In such situations, less processing power is utilized because the processor and memory do not need to be dedicated to processing. As a result, there are substantial savings in the use of computer resources by utilizing the software, techniques, and algorithms provided in this disclosure. In certain embodiments, various operational functions of system 10 may be configured to execute on one or more graphics processors and / or application-specific integrated processors.

[0110] Notably, in certain embodiments, various functions and features of system 10 and methods may operate without human intervention and be implemented entirely by computing devices. In certain embodiments, for example, multiple computing devices may interact with the devices of system 10 to provide the functionality supported by system 10. Furthermore, in certain embodiments, the computing devices of system 10 may operate continuously without human intervention to reduce the likelihood of introducing errors into system 10. In certain embodiments, system 10 and methods may also provide effective computing resource management by utilizing the features and functions described in this disclosure. For example, in certain embodiments, devices within system 10 may transmit signals indicating that only a certain amount of computer processor resources (e.g., processor clock cycles, processor speed, etc.) may be devoted to utilizing volume rendering, generating a surgical plan for a subject, performing a registration process, and / or performing any other operations performed by system 10, or any combination thereof. For example, the signals may indicate the number of processor cycles of a processor that may be utilized to enhance an image set via volume rendering and / or specify the amount of selected processing power that may be dedicated to generating or any operations performed by system 10.

[0111] In certain embodiments, any device within system 10 may send a signal to a memory device to cause the memory device to dedicate only a selected amount of memory resources to various operations of system 10. In certain embodiments, system 10 and methods may also include sending signals to processors and memories to perform operational functions of system 10 and methods only during times when processing and / or memory resource usage within system 10 is at a selected value. In certain embodiments, system 10 and methods may include sending signals to memory devices utilized in system 10 indicating which particular sections of memory should be utilized to store any data utilized or generated by system 10. Notably, signals sent to processors and memories may be utilized to optimize the use of computing resources while executing operations performed by system 10. As a result, such functionality provides substantial operational efficiencies and improvements over existing technologies.

[0112] 11 , at least some of the methodologies and techniques described with respect to the exemplary embodiment of system 10 may be incorporated into other computing devices, such as, but not limited to, a machine, computer system 1100, in which a set of instructions, when executed, causes the machine to perform any one or more of the methodologies or functions described above. The machine may be configured to facilitate various operations performed by system 10. For example, but not limited to, the machine may be configured to assist system 10 by providing processing power to assist with the processing load experienced by system 10, by assisting system 10, by providing storage capacity for storing instructions or data traversing system 10, or by assisting other operations performed by or within system 10. As another example, computer system 1100 may assist in generating models related to the generation of predictions related to hole events, outcome generation, hole score generation, score probability distributions, predicted outcomes, probabilities of predicted outcomes, score differential adjustments, cut line values, player probabilities with respect to the cut line, updates to any of these, or combinations thereof, present in the environment monitored by system 10. As another example, the computer system 1100 may facilitate the collection and / or import and handling of historical data consisting of a player's tournament statistics, which may include hole statistics. As another example, the computer system 1100 may facilitate the generation of score probability distributions, random score generation, weighted outcome generation, or a combination thereof. As another example, the computer system 1100 may facilitate the output, distribution, or both of predictions to television broadcast, streaming broadcast, digital platform for viewing, manipulation, format, or a combination thereof.

[0113] In some embodiments, the machine may operate as a standalone device. In some embodiments, the machine may be connected to and assist in operations performed by other machines and systems. For example, any functionality described herein, such as, but not limited to, a generator, adjuster, engine executor, or other functionality, may be provided to the machine by such other machines or systems for use by system 10 in performing the operations described herein. The machine may be connected to any component in system 10. In a network deployment, the machine may operate in the capacity of a server or client user machine in a server-client-user network environment, or as a peer machine in a peer-to-peer (or distributed) network environment. The machine may comprise a server computer, a client user computer, a personal computer (PC), a tablet PC, a laptop computer, a desktop computer, a control system, a network router, a switch, a bridge, or any machine capable of executing a set of instructions (whether sequential or not) that specify actions to be performed by the machine. Additionally, although a single machine is illustrated, the term "machine" is intended to include a collection of machines that individually or jointly execute a set (or sets) of instructions to perform any one or more of the methodologies discussed herein.

[0114] The computer system 1100 may include a processor 1102 (e.g., a central processing unit (CPU), a graphics processing unit (GPU), or both), a main memory 1104, and a static memory 1106, which communicate with each other via a bus 1108. The computer system 1100 may further include a video display unit 1110, which may be, but is not limited to, a liquid crystal display (LCD), a flat panel, a solid-state display, or a cathode ray tube (CRT). The computer system 1100 may include, but is not limited to, an input device 1112 such as a keyboard, a cursor control device 1114 such as a mouse, a disk drive unit 1116, a signal generating device 1118 such as a speaker or remote control, and a network interface device 1120.

[0115] Disk drive unit 1116 may include a machine-readable medium 1122 having stored thereon one or more sets of instructions 1124, such as, but not limited to, software embodying any one or more of the methodologies or functions described herein, including the methods illustrated above. The instructions 1124 may also reside, completely or at least partially, in main memory 1104, static memory 1106, or processor 1102, or a combination thereof, during execution thereof by computer system 1100. Main memory 1104 and processor 1102 may also constitute machine-readable media.

[0116] Dedicated hardware implementations, including but not limited to application-specific integrated circuits, programmable logic arrays, and other hardware devices, can also be constructed to perform the methods described herein. Applications that may include the apparatus and systems of various embodiments broadly include a variety of electronic and computer systems. Some embodiments implement functionality in two or more specific interconnected hardware modules or devices, with associated control and data signals communicated between and through the modules, or as part of an application-specific integrated circuit. Thus, the exemplary systems are applicable to software, firmware, and hardware implementations.

[0117] In accordance with various embodiments of the present disclosure, the methods described herein are intended to operate as software programs running on a computer processor. Furthermore, software implementations may include, but are not limited to, distributed processing or component / object distributed processing, parallel processing, or virtual machine processing, and may also be constructed to implement the methods described herein.

[0118] The present disclosure contemplates a machine-readable medium 1122 including instructions 1124 such that a device connected to the communications network 1135, another network, or a combination thereof can use the instructions to send or receive voice, video, or data to communicate over the communications network 1135, another network, or a combination thereof. The instructions 1124 may further be transmitted or received over the communications network 1135, another network, or a combination thereof via the network interface device 1120.

[0119] While machine-readable medium 1122 is shown in the exemplary embodiment to be a single medium, the term "machine-readable medium" should be interpreted to include a single medium or multiple media (e.g., a centralized or distributed database, and / or associated caches and servers) that store one or more sets of instructions. The term "machine-readable medium" should also be considered to include any medium capable of storing, encoding, or carrying a set of instructions for execution by a machine, causing the machine to perform any one or more of the methodologies of this disclosure.

[0120] The terms “machine-readable medium,” “machine-readable device,” or “computer-readable device” accordingly include, but are not limited to, memory devices; solid-state memories such as memory cards or other packages containing one or more read-only (non-volatile) memories, random-access memories, or other rewritable (volatile) memories; magneto-optical or optical media such as disks or tapes; or other self-contained information archives or sets of archives, all of which are considered distribution media equivalent to tangible storage media. A “machine-readable medium,” “machine-readable device,” or “computer-readable device” may be non-transitory and, in certain embodiments, may not include the waves or signals themselves. Accordingly, the present disclosure is considered to include any one or more of the machine-readable media or distribution media enumerated herein, including art-recognized equivalents and successor media, on which the software implementation herein may be stored.

[0121] The illustrations of the arrangements described herein are intended to provide a general understanding of the structure of various embodiments and are not intended to serve as a complete description of all elements and features of apparatus and systems that may utilize the structures described herein. Other arrangements may be utilized and derived therefrom, such that structural and logical substitutions and changes may be made without departing from the scope of the present disclosure. Additionally, the figures are merely representative and may not be drawn to scale. Certain proportions thereof may be exaggerated, and other proportions may be minimized. Accordingly, the specification and drawings are to be regarded in an illustrative, rather than a restrictive, sense.

[0122] Thus, while particular arrangements have been illustrated and described herein, it is understood that any arrangement calculated to achieve the same purpose may be substituted for the particular arrangement illustrated. This disclosure is intended to cover any adaptations or modifications of the various embodiments and arrangements of the invention. Combinations of the above arrangements, and other arrangements not specifically described herein, will be apparent to those skilled in the art upon reviewing the above description. Therefore, this disclosure is not limited to the particular arrangement(s) disclosed as the best mode contemplated for carrying out the invention, but rather the invention is intended to include all embodiments and arrangements falling within the scope of the appended claims.

[0123] The foregoing is provided for the purposes of illustrating, explaining, and describing embodiments of the present invention. Modifications and adaptations to these embodiments will be apparent to those skilled in the art and can be made without departing from the scope or spirit of the invention. Upon reviewing the above-described embodiments, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that said embodiments can be modified, scaled down, or enhanced without departing from the scope and spirit of the claims set forth below.

Claims

1. 1. A golf tournament simulation modeling system, comprising: a memory for storing instructions; and a processor for executing the instructions to perform operations, the operations including: running a golf tournament simulation to generate predicted outcomes of the golf tournament, the running of the simulation comprising: generating one or more hole event probabilities for each hole in each round of the golf tournament for the participating player based at least in part on historical statistics of golf play stored in the statistical database; generating a whole event outcome using the whole event probability as a weight; assigning a score probability distribution for each hole based on one or more of the hole event outcomes generated for the hole; generating a random score for each hole based on the score probability distribution for the respective hole; repeatedly running a golf tournament simulation to generate a plurality of simulations and corresponding predicted outcomes, and calculating probabilities of one or more predicted outcomes from the plurality of simulations; and updating the predicted outcomes, probabilities of the predicted outcomes, or both, of one or more of a plurality of simulations based on the inclusion of actual score data after the start of actual play.

2. 10. The system of claim 1, wherein the historical statistics represent past occurrences of a particular hole event by a group of players over multiple holes in actual tournament play, past occurrences of a particular hole event by a group of players over a specific hole being simulated, and past occurrences of a particular hole event by a player being simulated over multiple holes.

3. The system of claim 2 , wherein the hole event probabilities are based on historical statistics associated with holes having par values ​​corresponding to the holes being simulated.

4. 10. The system of claim 1, wherein a hole event result for a first hole event on a first hole specifies elements necessary to identify the historical statistics used to generate a hole event probability for a second hole event on the first hole.

5. 10. The system of claim 1, wherein the first hole event probability for par 4 and par 5 holes comprises the probability that a player will hit off the fairway, and the first hole event probability for par 3 holes comprises the probability that a player will hit off the green.

6. 6. The system of claim 5, wherein off-tee hole event probabilities use the historical statistics including: For Par 3 holes: Player's GIR% for the Par 3 hole, Overall GIR% for the hole, Overall GIR% for the Par 3 hole, and For Par 4 and Par 5 holes: Player fairway % hit for Par 4 and Par 5 holes, overall fairway % hit for holes, overall fairway % hit for Par 4 and Par 5 holes.

7. 6. The system of claim 5, wherein second hole event probabilities for par 4 and par 5 holes comprise probabilities that a player will hit the green from a location determined by the predicted outcome of the first hole event.

8. 8. The system of claim 7, wherein if the predicted hole event location outcome of the off-tee location hole event calculated for a hole is a fairway, the historical statistics of the subsequent shot location hole event comprise historical statistics corresponding to past occurrences of hitting the green from a fairway, consisting of: a player's GIR % from the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, an overall GIR % from the fairway for the hole, and an overall GIR % from the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes; and if the predicted hole event location outcome of the off-tee location hole event calculated for a hole is a non-fairway, the historical statistics of the subsequent shot location hole event comprise historical statistics corresponding to past occurrences of hitting the green from a non-fairway, consisting of: a player's GIR % from the non-fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, an overall GIR % from the non-fairway for the hole, and an overall GIR % from the non-fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes.

9. A whole event probability algorithm is used to generate the whole event probability, the whole event probability algorithm comprising the following formula: [Equation 1] 10. The system of claim 1, wherein x is the past occurrence of the player performing the hole event, y is the aggregate past occurrence of the hole event on a particular hole, and z is the aggregate past occurrence of the hole event during play on multiple courses.

10. The system of claim 1 , wherein the score probability distribution represents a historical score distribution for the hole given the occurrence of each potential hole-event outcome or combination of hole-event outcomes for the hole.

11. The updating operation includes replacing the predicted hole score with the actual hole score when the player completes the hole; updating a predicted round score taking into account the replaced actual hole score; summing the updated predicted round scores for all tournament rounds to generate updated predicted tournament scores for the participating players; summing the updated predicted round scores for the pre-cut rounds to establish an updated cut line; Including predicted round scores from post-cut rounds in players' scores updated once they qualify; and The system of claim 1 , further comprising not including predicted round scores for post-cut rounds in scores updated for players who did not qualify.

12. 10. The system of claim 1, wherein the operations further include transmitting each player's predicted outcome probability to a database with a player ID and a timestamp to display updated probabilities and enable digital trending across television broadcast and digital platforms.

13. 1. A system for updating a golf tournament simulation, the system comprising: a memory for storing instructions; a processor that executes the instructions to perform operations, the operations including: Replacing the predicted hole score with the actual hole score when the player completes the hole; updating a predicted round score taking into account the replaced actual hole score; generating updated predicted tournament scores for all participating players from the updated predicted round scores for all tournament rounds for all participating players; Establishing an updated cut line from the updated predicted round scores of the pre-cut round; In said updated projected tournament scores, if a player has qualified, the updated scores include projected post-cut round scores, and if a player has not qualified, the updated scores do not include projected post-cut round scores; and By updating the prediction results, updating the golf tournament simulation in real time; and updating probabilities of one or more predicted outcomes based on the collectively updated predicted outcomes.

14. 14. The system of claim 13, wherein the probabilities of the one or more predicted outcomes comprise a probability of winning, a probability of finishing in the top 10, a probability of making the cut line, and a probability of being cut.

15. 1. A method of simulating a golf event, said method comprising: and executing a simulated round for each player participating in a golf event, the execution including: generating predicted hole scores for each hole of the golf round, the generating comprising, for each hole: calculating a hole event probability for each of one or more hole events assigned to a hole in the golf round; generating a predicted hole event outcome for each of the one or more hole events using the calculated hole event probabilities for each hole event as weights; assigning a score probability distribution from a plurality of score probability distributions for the hole corresponding to one or more of the predicted hole event outcomes generated for the hole; and generating the predicted hole score using the assigned score probability distribution; generating a predicted round score from the predicted hole scores.

16. 16. The method of claim 15, wherein calculating one or more of the hole event probabilities is based at least in part on historical statistics representing past occurrences of the hole event in actual tournament play by a population of players over multiple holes, by a population of players over the particular hole being simulated, and by players being simulated over multiple holes.

17. Calculating one or more of said hole event probabilities comprises processing historical statistics representing past occurrences of said hole events in actual tournament play through the following event probability model: [Equation 2] 16. The method of claim 15, wherein x is the past occurrence of the player performing the hole event, y is the aggregate past occurrence of the hole event on a particular hole, and z is the aggregate past occurrence of the hole event during play on multiple courses.

18. 18. The method of claim 17, wherein the hole event probability corresponds to the probability of the hole event occurring on a hole, and the historical statistics are associated with a hole having hole attributes corresponding to the hole being simulated.

19. 20. The method of claim 18, wherein the first hole event probability for a par 4 hole consists of the probability that the player hits the fairway off the tee, x is the player's hit fairway % for par 4 and par 5 holes, y is the overall hit fairway % for the hole, and z is the overall hit fairway % for par 4 and par 5 holes.

20. 20. The method of claim 19, wherein the second hole event probability for a par 4 hole comprises the probability that the player will hit the green on the subsequent shot from a location specified by the predicted outcome of the first hole event.

21. 21. The method of claim 20, wherein if the predicted outcome of the first hole event is hitting the fairway, the historical statistics correspond to past occurrences of hitting the green from the fairway, x is the player's GIR % from the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, y is the hole's overall GIR % from the fairway for that hole, and z is the overall GIR % from the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes; and if the predicted outcome of the first hole event is missing the fairway, the historical statistics correspond to past occurrences of hitting the green from off the fairway, x is the player's GIR % from off the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, y is the hole's overall GIR % from off the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, and z is the overall GIR % from off the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes.

22. 16. The method of claim 15, further comprising generating a predicted hole event outcome for each of one or more hole events using the calculated hole event probabilities of each hole event as weights, and inputting the calculated hole event probabilities into a weighted random generator algorithm.

23. 16. The method of claim 15, wherein each hole is associated with a plurality of said score probability distributions, each score probability distribution corresponding to a particular predicted hole event outcome or combination of predicted hole event outcomes for the hole.

24. 24. The method of claim 23, wherein the score probability distribution represents a historical score distribution for a hole given the occurrence of a particular hole event.

25. 24. The method of claim 23, wherein assigning the score probability distributions comprises pairing one or more of the predicted hole event outcomes for a hole with the score probability distributions corresponding to the predicted hole event outcomes.

26. 16. The method of claim 15, wherein generating the predicted hole score using the assigned score probability distribution comprises inputting the assigned score probability distribution into a random score selector algorithm to generate the predicted hole score.

27. The method of claim 15 , further comprising applying a score adjustment to the predicted hole score.

28. The method of claim 15, wherein the score adjustment is applied to each hole score.

29. 16. The method of claim 15, further comprising adjusting the predicted hole scores based on a deviation between an average round score for all tournament rounds and a particular tournament round for the player's tournament being simulated.

30. 1. A computer-implemented method for updating a golf tournament simulation, the method comprising: retrieving relevant aggregate historical data and historical player data from a statistical database and generating each hole event probability for one or more hole events for each hole of the round; processing the collective historical data and the historical player data through a hole event probability algorithm to generate the hole event probability for each hole event; calculating a predicted hole event outcome for each hole event using the generated hole event probabilities as weights in a weighted random generation algorithm; assigning, for each hole, a score probability distribution corresponding to one or more of the predicted hole event outcomes for that hole; and inputting the assigned score probability distributions into a random score selector algorithm to generate predicted hole scores for each hole. generating predicted hole scores for each hole of the round; and calculating a predicted round score from the predicted hole scores; generating predicted round scores for each round of the simulated tournament; repeating the generation of predicted round scores for all tournament rounds for each opposing player, and further repeating this to generate a plurality of tournament simulations; calculating the probability of one or more predicted outcomes from multiple tournament simulations; storing the tournament simulation for updating; and performing updates to all simulations as necessary during actual play of the tournament to update the probabilities of said predicted outcomes.

31. 31. The method of claim 30, wherein the predicted round score is a sum of the predicted hole scores for each hole of the round.

32. 31. The method of claim 30, wherein the predicted round score comprises an adjusted sum of the predicted hole scores for a single hole in a round or an adjusted sum of the predicted hole scores for multiple holes in a round.

33. 32. The method of claim 31, further comprising applying a score adjustment based at least in part on historical player data of the simulated player.

34. 34. The method of claim 33, wherein the score adjustment is applied to each hole score.

35. 34. The method of claim 33, wherein the score adjustment is applied to the predicted round score.

36. 7. The method of any one of claims 4 to 6, wherein the historical player data comprises deltas of a player's actual past play.

37. 37. The method of claim 36, wherein the difference in a player's actual past play is the difference in average score in a tournament round corresponding to the round being simulated relative to all tournament rounds.

38. 33. The method of claim 32, further comprising adjusting the predicted hole score based on a difference between the simulated player's average round score for all tournament rounds and the player's average round score in the tournament for the particular simulated round.

39. 33. The method of claim 32, further comprising applying a round adjustment to each predicted hole score output by the Random Score Selector algorithm or a round score calculated from said predicted hole scores when there is a past play difference in the simulated player's round score average for the simulated round relative to the player's round score average across all tournament rounds.

40. 11. The method of any one of claims 33 to 10, wherein the past play comprises a rolling average over one or more seasons.

41. 41. The method of any one of claims 33 to 40, wherein more recent past data points in past play are weighted more heavily.

42. 42. The method of any one of claims 31-41, further comprising applying a cutline protocol to each tournament simulation in accordance with tournament rules and not including predicted round scores of post-cut rounds in predicted tournament scores for players who are predicted not to qualify.

43. The cutline protocol is: running round simulations of pre-cut rounds and generating predicted round scores for all players for each of said pre-cut rounds; establishing a tournament cut line based on the predicted round scores from the pre-cut round; and 43. The method of claim 42, comprising: running round simulations of post-cut rounds for players predicted to qualify; and generating predicted round scores for post-cut rounds for players predicted to qualify.

44. The cutline protocol is: running round simulations for pre-cut and post-cut rounds to generate predicted round scores for all players for pre-cut and post-cut rounds; and 43. The method of claim 42, further comprising setting a cut line for a golf tournament based on the predicted round scores of the pre-cut round.

45. 45. The method of any one of claims 30 to 44, wherein the hole event probability corresponds to the probability of the hole event occurring on a hole.

46. 46. ​​The method of any one of claims 30 to 45, wherein the associated collective historical data and historical player data represent past occurrences of hole events in actual play at the same or similar level of tournament play.

47. 47. The method of any one of claims 30 to 46, wherein the relevant collective historical data represents past occurrences of hole events in actual tournament play by collective players for multiple holes and for a particular hole being simulated, and the historical player data represents past occurrences of hold events by simulated players for multiple holes.

48. 48. The method of any one of claims 30 to 47, wherein the associated collective historical data and historical player data correspond to the occurrence of hole events on holes having hole attributes that correspond to attributes of the hole being simulated.

49. 49. The method of claim 48, wherein the attribute is a par value.

50. 50. The method of any one of claims 30 to 49, wherein a hole event outcome for a first hole event on a first hole specifies elements necessary to identify relevant collective historical data and historical player data used to generate a hole event probability for a second hole event on the first hole.

51. 41. The method of any one of claims 30-40, further comprising calculating more hole event probabilities for par 4 holes, par 5 holes, or both, than for par 3 holes.

52. 52. The method of any one of claims 30 to 51, wherein the one or more hole events include a first hole event, the first hole event including a shot location off the tee, and the first hole event probability includes a probability that a player will hit the shot location off the tee.

53. 53. The method of claim 52, wherein the off-tee shot location outcome is based on attributes of the hole.

54. 54. The method of claim 53, wherein the attribute of a hole is a par rating of the hole, and the first hole event probability for a par 4 hole comprises the probability that a player will hit the fairway off the tee, and the first hole event probability for a par 3 hole comprises the probability that a player will hit the green off the tee.

55. 55. The method of claim 54, wherein, for at least one hole, the one or more hole events further include a second hole event consisting of a shot position for a subsequent shot.

56. 56. The method of claim 55, wherein the shot location outcome for the subsequent shot is based on attributes of the hole.

57. 57. The method of claim 56, wherein the attribute of the hole is the par rating of the hole.

58. 58. The method of claim 57, wherein the second hole event probability for a par 4 hole comprises the probability that the player will hit the green from a location determined by the predicted outcome of the first hole event.

59. The method of any one of claims 30 to 51, wherein each hole includes a first hole event corresponding to the location of the shot.

60. 60. The method of claim 59, wherein the first hole event corresponds to an off-tee location hole event consisting of the green of a par 3 hole and the fairway of a par 4 and par 5 hole.

61. The relevant collective historical data and historical player data for the off-tee position hole event includes: For par 3 holes, the player's GIR% for the par 3 hole, the overall GIR% for that hole, and the overall GIR% for the par 3 hole; and 61. The method of claim 60, comprising, for par 4 and par 5 holes, the player's fairway hit % for the par 4 and par 5 holes, the overall fairway hit % for the hole, and the overall fairway hit % for the par 4 and par 5 holes.

62. 62. The method of claim 60 or 61, wherein the one or more hole events include a second hole event for at least some of the holes.

63. 63. The method of claim 62, wherein the second hole event comprises a subsequent shot position hole event corresponding to a shot position of a shot following an off-tee shot.

64. retrieving relevant collective historical data and historical player data from a statistical database using the predicted hole event location outcome of the off-tee location hole event calculated for the hole from the statistical location to calculate the probability of the hole event for the subsequent shot location; and calculating predicted hole event location outcomes for hole events at subsequent shot locations using corresponding location hole event probabilities as weights in a weighted random generator algorithm; 64. The method of claim 63, wherein the method generates a predicted hole score for a par 4 hole, the predicted hole score including:

65. 65. The method of claim 64, including repeating calculating predicted hole outcomes for subsequent shot location hole events for par 5 holes in a similar manner as for par 4 holes.

66. If the calculated predicted hole event location outcome for the off-tee location hole event for the hole is a fairway, the relevant collective historical data and historical player data for the subsequent shot location hole event consists of historical statistics corresponding to past occurrences of hitting the green from the fairway consisting of the player's GIR% from the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, their overall GIR% from the fairway for that hole, and their overall GIR% from the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes; and 66. The method of claim 64 or 65, wherein if the predicted hole event location outcome of the off-tee location hole event calculated for that hole is off-fairway, the associated collective past data and past player data for the subsequent shot location hole event comprises historical statistics corresponding to past occurrences of hitting the green from off-fairway consisting of player GIR% from off-fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, overall GIR% from off-fairway for the hole, and overall GIR% from off-fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes.

67. 67. The method of any one of claims 30 to 66, wherein the whole event probability algorithm is configured as follows: [Equation 3] where x is the past occurrence of a player performing a hole event, y is the aggregate past occurrence of hole events on a particular hole, and z is the aggregate past occurrence of hole events during play across multiple courses.

68. 68. The method of claim 67, wherein the first hole event probabilities for par 4 and par 5 holes include the probability that a player will hit the fairway off the tee, where x is the player hit fairway % for the par 4 and par 5 hole, y is the overall hit fairway % for the hole, and z is the overall hit fairway % for the par 4 and par 5 hole.

69. 69. The method of claim 68, wherein the second hole event probabilities for par 4 holes and par 5 holes comprise the probability that the player will hit the green on the subsequent shot from a location specified by the predicted outcome of the first hole event.

70. 70. The method of claim 69, wherein if the predicted outcome of the first hole event is hitting the fairway, the collective historical data and the player's collective historical data correspond to past occurrences of hitting the green from the fairway, x is the player GIR% from the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, y is the overall hole GIR% from the fairway for the hole, and z is the overall hole GIR% from the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes; and if the predicted outcome of the first hole event is missing the fairway, the historical statistics correspond to past occurrences of hitting the green from off the fairway, x is the player GIR% from off the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, y is the overall hole GIR% from off the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, and z is the overall hole GIR% from off the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes.

71. 71. The method of any one of claims 66 to 70, wherein the first hole event probability for a par 3 hole comprises the probability that the player will tee off the green, x is the player GIR% for the par 3 hole, y is the overall GIR% for the hole, and z is the overall GIR% for the par 3 hole.

72. 72. The method of any one of claims 30 to 71, wherein the outcome of the one or more predicted hole events for each hole is binary.

73. 73. The method of any one of claims 30 to 72, wherein each hole is associated with a plurality of score probability distributions, each score probability distribution corresponding to a particular predicted hole event outcome or combination of predicted hole event outcomes for the hole.

74. 74. The method of claim 73, wherein the score probability distribution represents the distribution of past scores on the hole given the occurrence of each outcome or combination of potential hole events.

75. 75. The method of claim 74, wherein assigning the score probability distribution comprises pairing one or more predicted hole event outcomes for a hole with the score probability distribution corresponding to the predicted hole event outcome.

76. Calculating one or more outcome probabilities: Analyzing the simulation for the occurrence of predicted outcomes; and 76. The method of any one of claims 30 to 75, comprising calculating the probability of a predicted outcome, comprising dividing the number of simulations that predicted the predicted outcome to occur by the total number of simulations.

77. 77. The method of claim 76, wherein one or more of the predicted outcomes comprises a score or a range of scores for one or more holes in one round of a tournament, a score or a range of scores for one or more holes in two or more rounds of a tournament, a hole event for one or more holes in one round of a tournament, a hole event for one or more holes in two or more rounds of a tournament, or a combination thereof.

78. 78. The method of claim 76 or 77, wherein one or more of the predicted outcomes comprises a particular score or a particular range of scores for one or more rounds or tournaments, particular hole scores for one or more holes in one or more rounds, or a combination thereof.

79. 79. The method of any one of claims 76-78, wherein the one or more predicted outcomes comprise ranking of a player by finishing round position, finishing position of a player, a range of finishing positions of a player, or a combination thereof.

80. 80. The method of any one of claims 76 to 79, wherein the one or more predicted outcomes comprise the probability of a player finishing with the lowest round score, the probability of a player finishing with a round score within a particular ranking of finishing positions, or a combination thereof.

81. 81. The method of any one of claims 76-80, wherein the one or more predicted outcomes comprise: a ranking of players by finishing position in one or more rounds of a tournament; a ranking of players by finishing position in a tournament; a finishing position of players in one or more rounds of a tournament; a range of finishing positions in one or more rounds of a tournament; winning a tournament; making the cut; a cut line; or a combination thereof.

82. 82. The method of any one of claims 76-81, wherein the one or more predicted outcomes comprise a ranking probability of a player by finishing position in one or more rounds of a tournament, a ranking probability of a player by finishing position in a tournament, a finishing position probability of a player in one or more rounds of a tournament, a probability of a player finishing within a finishing position in one or more rounds of a tournament, a probability of a player winning the tournament, a probability of a player making the cut, a cut line probability, or a combination thereof.

83. 83. The method of any one of claims 76 to 82, wherein the predicted outcome probabilities comprise a winning probability, a top 10 finishing probability, a cut line probability, and a probability of being cut.

84. To update: Replacing the predicted hole score with the actual hole score when the player completes the hole; updating a predicted round score taking into account the replaced actual hole score; summing the updated predicted round scores for all tournament rounds to generate an updated predicted tournament score for the participating player; summing the updated predicted round scores for the pre-cut rounds to establish an updated cut line; Including predicted round scores from post-cut rounds in players' scores updated once they qualify; and 84. The method of any one of claims 30 to 83, comprising not including predicted round scores for post-cut rounds in scores updated for players who did not make the cut.

85. A method according to any one of claims 30 to 84, wherein updates are performed at intervals of less than 30 seconds during play when actual live score data is received.

86. 86. A method according to any one of claims 30 to 85, wherein the updating occurs during play of the actual golf event until the end of the event.

87. 87. The method of any one of claims 30-86, further comprising: transferring each player's information to a database using a player ID and a timestamp to display updated probabilities, thereby enabling digital trending across broadcast television and digital platforms.

88. A system including a processor and a storage medium having stored thereon instructions which, when executed by said processor, cause said system to perform the method of any one of claims 30 to 87.

89. A machine-readable medium having stored thereon machine-readable instructions which, when executed by a processor of a machine, cause the machine to perform the method of any one of claims 30 to 89.

90. 1. A computer-implemented golf tournament simulation modeling system, the golf tournament simulation modeling system comprising: a statistical database consisting of historical statistics of golf play; a hole event probability generator configured to use the historical statistics to generate one or more hole event probabilities for each hole of each round of the golf tournament based at least in part on the historical statistics; a hole event result generator configured to generate hole event results using hole event probabilities as weights, said hole event result generator including or configured to access the operation of a weighted result generator configured to generate hole event results using hole event probabilities as weights; a hole score generator configured to assign a score probability distribution for each hole based on one or more hole event outcomes generated for the hole, the hole score generator including or configured to access the operation of a score distribution engine configured to generate or provide hole score probability distributions for potential combinations of hole event outcomes, the hole score generator including or configured to access the operation of a random score generator configured to generate a random score based on the hole score probability distributions identified by the hole score generator; a prediction engine configured to output predictions regarding a golf tournament, the prediction engine including a predicted outcome generator configured to generate predicted outcomes, the prediction engine including a predicted outcome probability generator configured to generate probabilities of one or more predicted outcomes based on predicting predicted outcomes in a plurality of simulations of the golf tournament; and and an update processor configured to update one or more predicted outcomes, probabilities of the predicted outcomes, or both, based on inclusion of actual score data after actual play begins.

91. 91. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of claim 90, wherein the historical statistics used by the hole event probability generator comprise historical statistics representing past occurrences of particular hole events in actual tournament play by a population of players over multiple holes, by a population of players over the particular hole being simulated, and by a subject player of the simulation over multiple holes.

92. 92. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of claim 90 or 91, wherein the hole event probability generator is configured to generate hole event probabilities based on historical statistics associated with holes having hole attributes corresponding to the hole being simulated.

93. 93. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of claim 92, wherein the attribute is a par value.

94. 70. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of any one of claims 90-69, wherein the one or more hole events include a first hole event.

95. 95. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of claim 90, wherein, for at least one hole, the hole event comprises a first hole event for the first hole and a second hole event for the first hole, and both the first hole event and the second hole event include a shot location.

96. 96. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of any one of claims 90-95, wherein a hole event outcome for a first hole event on a first hole specifies elements necessary to identify historical statistics used to generate hole event probabilities for a second hole event on the first hole.

97. 97. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of claim 90, wherein the hole event probability generator is configured to generate more hole event probabilities for par 4 holes and par 5 holes than for par 3 holes.

98. 98. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of claim 90, wherein the hole event probability generator is configured to generate a first hole event probability for a par 4 hole consisting of the probability that a player will hit the fairway off the tee and a first hole event probability for a par 3 hole consisting of the probability that the player will hit the green off the tee.

99. 99. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of claim 98, wherein the hole event probability generator is configured to generate off-tee hole event probabilities using the historical statistics, the historical statistics comprising: For Par 3 holes: Player's GIR% on the Par 3 hole, Overall GIR% on that hole, Overall GIR% on the Par 3 hole. For Par 4 and Par 5 holes: Player's fairway % hit on Par 4 and Par 5 holes, overall fairway % hit on that hole, and fairway % hit on Par 4 and Par 5 holes.

100. 99. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of any one of claims 94 to 98, wherein the one or more hole events include a second hole event for at least some of the holes.

101. 101. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of claim 100, wherein the second hole event comprises a subsequent shot position hole event corresponding to a shot position of a shot following the off-tee shot.

102. 102. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of claim 101, wherein the hole event probability generator is configured to generate second hole event probabilities for par 4 and par 5 holes comprising probabilities of a player hitting the green from a location determined by the predicted outcome of the first hole event generated by the hole event outcome generator.

103. 102. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of claim 101 , wherein if the predicted hole event location outcome of the off-tee location hole event calculated for the hole is a fairway, the historical statistics of the subsequent shot location hole event comprise historical statistics corresponding to past occurrences of hitting the green from the fairway consisting of: player GIR% from the fairway on par 4 and par 5 holes, overall GIR% from the fairway on the hole, and overall GIR% from the fairway on par 4 and par 5 holes; and if the predicted hole event location outcome of the off-tee location hole event calculated for the hole is not a fairway, the relevant historical statistics of the subsequent shot location hole event comprise historical statistics corresponding to past occurrences of hitting the green from off the fairway consisting of: player GIR% from off the fairway on par 4 and par 5 holes, overall GIR% from off the fairway on the hole, and overall GIR% from off the fairway on par 4 and par 5 holes.

104. 104. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of any one of claims 90 to 103, wherein the hole event probability generator is configured to execute a hole event probability algorithm to generate hole event probabilities, the hole event probability algorithm comprising: [Equation 4] where x is the past occurrence of a player performing a hole event, y is the aggregate past occurrence of hole events on a particular hole, and z is the aggregate past occurrence of hole events during play across multiple courses.

105. 105. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of claim 104, wherein the first hole event probability for par 4 and par 5 holes comprises the probability that the player will hit the fairway off the tee, where x is the player's hit fairway % for the par 4 and par 5 holes, y is the overall hit fairway % for the hole, and z is the overall hit fairway % for the par 4 and par 5 holes.

106. 106. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of claim 104 or 105, wherein the first hole event probability for a par 3 hole includes the probability that the player will miss the green, x is the player GIR% for the par 3 hole, y is the overall GIR% for the hole, and z is the overall GIR% for the par 3 hole.

107. 106. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of claim 104 or 105, wherein the second hole event probabilities for par 4 holes and par 5 holes comprise the probability that the player will hit the green on the subsequent shot from a location specified by the predicted outcome of the first hole event.

108. 108. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of claim 107, wherein if the predicted outcome of the first hole event is hitting the fairway, the historical statistics used by the hole event probability generator correspond to past occurrences of hitting the green from the fairway, x is the player's GIR % from the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, y is the overall GIR % for the hole from the fairway for the hole, and z is the overall GIR % from the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes; and if the predicted outcome of the first hole event is missing the fairway, the historical statistics correspond to past occurrences of hitting the green from off the fairway, x is the player's GIR % from off the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, y is the overall GIR % for the hole from off the fairway, and z is the overall GIR % from off the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes.

109. 109. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of any one of claims 90-108, wherein the historical statistics comprise rolling averages over one or more seasons.

110. 110. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of any one of claims 90 to 109, wherein more recent historical data points in the historical statistics are weighted more heavily.

111. 111. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of any one of claims 90-110, wherein each hole is associated with a plurality of score probability distributions, each score probability distribution corresponding to a particular predicted hole-event outcome or combination of predicted hole-event outcomes for the hole.

112. 112. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of claim 111, wherein the score probability distribution represents a historical score distribution for the hole considering the occurrence of each outcome or combination of potential hole events.

113. 113. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of any one of claims 90 to 112, wherein the predicted outcome probability generator is configured to analyze the simulations for the occurrence of the predicted outcome and divide the number of simulations that predict the occurrence of the predicted outcome by the total number of simulations.

114. 114. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of claim 113, wherein the one or more predicted outcomes comprise a score or a range of scores for one or more holes in one round of the tournament, a score or a range of scores for one or more holes in two or more rounds of the tournament, a hole event for one or more holes in one round of the tournament, a hole event for one or more holes in two or more rounds of the tournament, or a combination thereof.

115. 115. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of claim 113 or 114, wherein the one or more predicted outcomes comprise a particular score or a score within a particular range for one or more rounds or tournaments, a particular hole score for one or more holes in one or more rounds, or a combination thereof.

116. 116. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of any one of claims 113-115, wherein the one or more predicted outcomes comprise ranking of the player by finishing position of the round, finishing position of the player, range of finishing positions of the player, or combinations thereof.

117. 117. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of any one of claims 113-116, wherein the one or more predicted outcomes comprise a probability that a player will finish with the lowest round score, a probability that a player will finish with a round score within a specified finishing position, or a combination thereof.

118. 118. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of any one of claims 113-117, wherein the one or more predicted outcomes comprise a ranking of players by finishing position in one or more rounds of the tournament, a ranking of players by finishing position in the tournament, a finishing position of players in one or more rounds of the tournament, a range of finishing positions in one or more rounds of the tournament, winning the tournament, making the cut, the cut line, or a combination thereof.

119. 119. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of any one of claims 113-118, wherein the one or more predicted outcomes comprise a ranking probability of a player by finishing position in one or more rounds of the tournament, a ranking probability of a player by finishing position in the tournament, a finishing position probability of a player in one or more rounds of the tournament, a probability of a player finishing within a finishing position range in one or more rounds of the tournament, a probability of a player winning the tournament, a probability of a player making the cut, a cut line probability, or a combination thereof.

120. 120. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of any one of claims 113 to 119, wherein the predicted outcome probabilities comprise a winning probability, a top 10 finishing probability, a cut line probability, and a probability of being cut.

121. 121. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of claim 90, wherein the update processor is configured to: replace predicted hole scores with actual hole scores as players complete holes; calculate updated predicted round scores taking into account the replaced actual hole scores; sum the updated predicted round scores for all tournament rounds to generate updated predicted tournament scores for the participating players; sum the updated predicted round scores for pre-cut rounds to establish an updated cut line; include predicted round scores for post-cut rounds in the updated scores for players who qualify; and exclude predicted round scores for post-cut rounds from the updated scores for players who do not qualify.

122. 122. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of any one of claims 90 to 121, wherein the update processor is configured to perform updates at intervals of less than 30 seconds during play as actual live score data is received.

123. 123. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of any one of claims 90 to 122, wherein the update processor is configured to perform the updates during play of the actual golf event until the end of the event.

124. 124. The golf tournament simulation modeling system of any one of claims 90-123, wherein the system is further configured to transmit each player's predicted outcome probability to a database using player ID and timestamp, display updated probabilities, and enable digital trend display across television broadcast and digital platforms.

125. A method of performing a golf tournament simulation using the golf tournament simulation modeling system of any one of claims 90 to 124.

126. A machine-readable medium storing machine-readable instructions which, when executed by a processor of the machine, cause the machine to implement the system of any one of claims 90 to 124.

127. 1. A computer-implemented method for updating a golf tournament simulation, the method comprising: Replacing the predicted hole score with the actual hole score as the player completes the hole; updating a predicted round score taking into account the replaced actual hole score; summing the updated predicted round scores for all tournament rounds for all participating players to generate updated predicted tournament scores for all participating players; Establishing an updated cut line by adding up the predicted round scores of the updated pre-cut rounds, including the predicted round scores of the post-cut rounds in players' scores updated to make the cut, and excluding the predicted round scores of the post-cut rounds in players' scores updated to not make the cut; and By updating the prediction results, updating each tournament simulation of a golf tournament; and updating probabilities of one or more predicted outcomes based on the collectively updated predicted outcomes, the updating including: Analyzing each tournament simulation for the occurrence of predicted outcomes; and Dividing the number of simulations that predicted the occurrence of the predicted outcome by the total number of simulations.

128. 128. The method of claim 127, wherein the predicted outcome comprises a ranking of players by finishing position in one or more rounds of the tournament, a ranking of players by finishing position in the tournament, a finishing position of players in one or more rounds of the tournament, a range of finishing positions in one or more rounds of the tournament, winning the tournament, making the cut, the cut line, or a combination thereof.

129. 129. The method of claim 127 or 128, wherein the predicted outcome probabilities comprise ranking probabilities of a player by finishing position in one or more rounds of a tournament, ranking probabilities of a player by finishing position in a tournament, finishing position probabilities of a player in one or more rounds of a tournament, probability of a player finishing within a finishing position range in one or more rounds of a tournament, probability of a player winning the tournament, probability of a player making the cut, cut line probability, or a combination thereof.

130. 130. The method of any one of claims 127 to 129, wherein the probabilities of the predicted outcomes comprise a probability of winning, a probability of finishing in the top 10, a cut line probability, and a probability of being cut.

131. A method according to any one of claims 127 to 130, wherein the updates are performed continuously in real time during play.

132. 132. A method according to any one of claims 127 to 131, wherein updates are performed at intervals of less than 30 seconds during play when actual live score data is received.

133. A method according to any one of claims 127 to 132, wherein the updating is carried out during play of the actual golf event until the end of the event.

134. 134. The method of any one of claims 127-133, further comprising: transferring each player's information to a database using a player ID and a timestamp to display updated probabilities, thereby enabling digital trending across television broadcast and digital platforms.

135. A system including a processor and a storage medium having stored thereon instructions which, when executed by the processor, cause the system to perform the method of any one of claims 127 to 134.

136. A machine-readable medium storing machine-readable instructions which, when executed by a processor of the machine, cause the machine to perform the method of any one of claims 127 to 134.

137. 1. A method of simulating a golf event, comprising: and performing a round simulation, the round simulation including: Generating predicted hole scores for each hole in a golf round, including: calculating a hole event probability for each of one or more hole events assigned to a hole in the golf round; using each of the calculated hole event probabilities as a weight to generate a predicted hole event outcome for each of the one or more hole events; assigning a score probability distribution from a plurality of score probability distributions for the hole corresponding to one or more of the predicted hole event outcomes generated for the hole; and generating the predicted hole scores using the assigned score probability distributions; and generating a predicted round score from the predicted hole scores;

138. 138. The method of claim 137, wherein the hole event probability corresponds to the probability that a hole event will occur on the hole.

139. 139. The method of claim 137 or 138, wherein calculating one or more hole event probabilities is based, at least in part, on historical statistics representing past occurrences of hole events in actual tournament play by a population of players for multiple holes, by a population of players for the particular hole being simulated, and by players being simulated for multiple holes.

140. 140. The method of claim 139, wherein the historical statistics relate to holes having hole attributes corresponding to the hole being simulated.

141. 141. The method of claim 140, wherein the attribute is a par value.

142. 142. The method of any one of claims 139 to 141, wherein a hole event outcome of a first hole event for a first hole specifies elements necessary to identify historical statistics used to generate a hole event probability for a second hole event for the first hole.

143. 143. The method of any one of claims 136-142, further comprising calculating more hole event probabilities for par 4 holes, par 5 holes, or both, than for par 3 holes.

144. 144. The method of any one of claims 136 to 143, wherein the one or more hole events include a first hole event, the first hole event including a shot location off the tee, and the first hole event probability includes a probability that the player will hit the shot location off the tee.

145. 145. The method of claim 144, wherein the off-tee shot location outcome is based on attributes of the hole.

146. 146. The method of claim 145, wherein the attribute of the hole is the par rating of the hole.

147. 147. The method of claim 146, wherein the first hole event probability for a par 4 hole comprises the probability that a player will tee off the fairway, and the first hole event probability for a par 3 hole comprises the probability that a player will tee off the green.

148. 148. A method according to any one of claims 144 to 147, wherein, for at least one hole, the one or more hole events further include a second hole event consisting of a shot position for a subsequent shot.

149. 149. The method of claim 148, wherein the outcome of the subsequent shot location is based on attributes of the hole.

150. 150. The method of claim 149, wherein the attribute of the hole is the par rating of the hole.

151. 151. The method of claim 150, wherein the second hole event probability for a par 4 hole comprises the probability that the player will hit the green from a location determined by the predicted outcome of the first hole event.

152. 152. The method of any one of claims 137 to 151, further comprising assigning one or more hole events to each hole for which respective hole event probabilities are calculated and respective corresponding hole event outcomes are generated.

153. 153. The method of any one of claims 137 to 152, wherein calculating one or more hole event probabilities comprises processing historical statistics representing past occurrences of hole events in actual tournament play through the following event probability model: [Equation 5] where x is the past occurrence of the player performing that hole event, y is the aggregate past occurrence of that hole event on a particular hole, and z is the aggregate past occurrence of that hole event while playing across multiple courses.

154. 154. The method of claim 153, wherein the hole event probability corresponds to the probability that a hole event will occur on the hole, and the historical statistics are associated with holes having hole attributes corresponding to the hole being simulated.

155. 155. The method of claim 154, wherein the first hole event probability for a par 4 hole comprises the probability that the player will hit the fairway off the tee, where x is the player's hit fairway % on par 4 and par 5 holes, y is the overall hit fairway % for the hole, and z is the overall hit fairway % on par 4 and par 5 holes.

156. 156. The method of claim 155, wherein the second hole event probability for a par 4 hole comprises the probability that the player will hit the green on the subsequent shot from a location specified by the predicted outcome of the first hole event.

157. 157. The method of claim 156, wherein if the predicted outcome of the first hole event is hitting the fairway, the historical statistics correspond to past occurrences of hitting the green from the fairway, x is the player GIR% from the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, y is the hole aggregate GIR% from the fairway for the hole, and z is the aggregate GIR% from the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes; and if the predicted outcome of the first hole event is missing the fairway, the historical statistics correspond to past occurrences of hitting the green from off the fairway, x is the player GIR% from off the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, y is the hole aggregate GIR% from off the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, and z is the hole aggregate GIR% from off the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes.

158. 158. The method of any one of claims 153 to 157, wherein the first hole event probability for a par 3 hole comprises the probability that the player will tee off the green, x is the player's GIR% for the par 3 hole, y is the overall GIR% for the hole, and z is the overall GIR% for the par 3 hole.

159. 159. The method of any one of claims 137-158, further comprising generating a predicted hole event outcome for each of the one or more hole events using the calculated event probabilities of each hole event as weights, and comprising inputting the calculated hole event probabilities into a weighted random generator algorithm.

160. 160. The method of claim 159, wherein one or more predicted hole event outcomes for each hole are binary.

161. 161. The method of any one of claims 137 to 160, wherein each hole is associated with a plurality of score probability distributions, each score probability distribution corresponding to a particular predicted hole event outcome or combination of predicted hole event outcomes for the hole.

162. 162. The method of claim 161, wherein the score probability distribution represents the distribution of past scores for a hole given the occurrence of a particular hole event.

163. 163. The method of claim 161 or 162, wherein assigning a score probability distribution comprises pairing one or more predicted hole event outcomes for the hole with a score probability distribution corresponding to the predicted hole event outcome.

164. 164. The method of any one of claims 137 to 163, wherein generating a predicted hole score using the assigned score probability distribution comprises inputting the assigned score probability distribution into a random score selector algorithm to generate the predicted hole score.

165. 165. The method of any one of claims 137 to 164, further comprising applying a score adjustment to the predicted hole score.

166. 166. The method of claim 165, wherein the adjustment is applied to each hole score.

167. 166. The method of claim 165, wherein the adjustment is applied to a predicted round score.

168. 168. A method according to any one of claims 165 to 167, wherein the adjustment comprises a differential adjustment based on a difference in the player's actual past play.

169. 169. The method of claim 168, wherein the difference in the player's actual past play is the difference in average score in the tournament round corresponding to the round being simulated relative to all tournament rounds.

170. 165. The method of any one of claims 137-164, further comprising adjusting the predicted hole scores based on a deviation between an average round score for all tournament rounds and a particular tournament round for the player's tournament being simulated.

171. 171. The method of any one of claims 137 to 170, further comprising generating a plurality of simulated rounds for a simulated player.

172. Analyzing each round of simulation for the occurrence of predicted outcomes; and 172. The method of claim 171, further comprising calculating a probability of the predicted outcome for the predicted outcome, comprising dividing the number of round simulations that predicted the occurrence of the predicted outcome by the total number of round simulations.

173. 172. The method of claim 171, wherein the predicted outcome comprises one or more of the player's score for one or more holes of the round, the player's round score, a range of round scores for the player, or a combination thereof.

174. 174. The method of any one of claims 137 to 173, wherein the golf event comprises a multi-round golf tournament, the method further comprising performing a tournament simulation comprising performing a round simulation for each round of the tournament for a player.

175. 175. The method of claim 174, further comprising generating predicted tournament scores for the player from the tournament simulation.

176. 176. The method of claim 174 or 175, further comprising outputting one or more predicted outcomes from the tournament simulation.

177. 177. The method of claim 176, wherein the one or more predicted outcomes comprise one or more predicted hole scores for the player, one or more predicted round scores for the player, a predicted tournament score for the player, or a combination thereof.

178. 178. The method of any one of claims 137 to 177, wherein the golf event comprises a multiple round golf tournament, the method further comprising: performing a plurality of tournament simulations, the method comprising, for each tournament simulation, performing a round simulation for each round of the tournament.

179. 179. The method of claim 178, further comprising generating a predicted tournament score for the player from the predicted round scores of each simulation.

180. Analyzing each tournament simulation for the occurrence of predicted outcomes; and 180. The method of claim 178 or 179, further comprising calculating a probability of the predicted outcome for the predicted outcome comprising dividing the number of simulations in which the predicted outcome occurred by the number of total simulations.

181. 181. The method of claim 180, wherein the predicted outcome comprises a specified score or a score within a specified range for a player for one or more rounds or a tournament, a specified hole score for one or more holes in a player's round or rounds, or a combination thereof.

182. 182. The method of any one of claims 137 to 181, further comprising running a simulated round for all players who will actually take part in the round.

183. 183. The method of claim 182, further comprising generating a predicted round score for each player.

184. 184. The method of claim 182 or 183, outputting one or more predicted outcomes from a tournament simulation.

185. 185. The method of claim 184, wherein the one or more predicted outcomes comprise a ranking of players by finishing position in a round, a finishing position of players in a round, a range of finishing positions of players in a round, players finishing within a specified finishing position in a round, or a combination thereof.

186. 186. The method of any one of claims 137 to 185, further comprising running multiple round simulations for the round for each player competing in the round.

187. Analyzing each round of simulation for the occurrence of predicted outcomes; and 187. The method of claim 186, further comprising calculating a probability of a predicted outcome for a predicted outcome of a simulated round, comprising: dividing a number of simulations that predicted the occurrence of the predicted outcome by a total number of simulations.

188. 188. The method of claim 187, wherein the one or more predicted outcomes comprise a ranking of players by finishing position in the round, a finishing position of players in the round, a range of finishing positions of players in the round, players finishing within a specified finishing position in the round, or a combination thereof.

189. 189. The method of claim 187 or 188, wherein the predicted outcome probability comprises the probability that the player will finish with the lowest round score, the probability that the player will finish with a round score within a specified range, or a combination thereof.

190. 190. The method of any one of claims 137 to 189, wherein the golf event comprises a multi-round golf tournament, the method further comprising performing a tournament simulation comprising performing a round simulation for each round of the tournament for each player who will actually compete in the tournament.

191. 191. The method of claim 190, further comprising generating a predicted tournament score from each player's predicted round score.

192. 192. The method of claim 191, wherein generating the predicted tournament scores comprises executing a cutline protocol.

193. 193. The method of claim 192, wherein the predicted tournament scores are limited to predicted pre-cut round scores if the player is not predicted to make the cut.

194. 194. The method of claim 192 or 193, wherein the cutline protocol comprises: Running round simulations of pre-cut rounds and generating predicted round scores for all players for each pre-cut round; Establishing the tournament cut line based on predicted round scores from the pre-cut round; and Running round simulations of post-cut rounds for players predicted to be cut and generating predicted post-cut round scores for players predicted to be cut.

195. 194. The method of claim 192 or 193, wherein the cutline protocol comprises: running round simulations for pre-cut and post-cut rounds to generate predicted round scores for all players for pre-cut and post-cut rounds; and Setting cut lines for golf tournaments based on pre-cut predicted round scores.

196. 196. The method of any one of claims 190-195, further comprising generating one or more predicted outcomes from the tournament simulation.

197. 200. The method of claim 196, wherein the predicted outcome comprises a ranking of players by finishing position in one or more rounds of the tournament, a ranking of players by finishing position in the tournament, a finishing position of players in one or more rounds of the tournament, a range of finishing positions of players in one or more rounds of the tournament, a finishing position of players in the tournament, a range of finishing positions of players in the tournament, a cut line, whether a player will make the cut, or a combination thereof.

198. 200. The method of any one of claims 137 to 197, wherein the golf event comprises a multiple round golf tournament, the method further comprising: performing a plurality of tournament simulations, the method comprising, for each tournament simulation, performing a round simulation for each round of the tournament for each player who will actually compete in the tournament.

199. 200. The method of claim 198, further comprising generating a predicted tournament score from each player's predicted round score.

200. 200. The method of claim 198 or 199, wherein the cutline protocol includes, for each tournament simulation: running round simulations of pre-cut rounds and generating predicted round scores for all players for each pre-cut round; Establishing the tournament cut line based on predicted round scores from the pre-cut round; and Running round simulations of post-cut rounds for players predicted to be cut and generating predicted post-cut round scores for players predicted to be cut.

201. 200. The method of claim 198 or 199, wherein the cutline protocol includes, for each tournament simulation: running round simulations for pre-cut and post-cut rounds to generate predicted round scores for all players for pre-cut and post-cut rounds; and Setting cut lines for golf tournaments based on pre-cut predicted round scores.

202. Analyzing each tournament simulation for the occurrence of predicted outcomes; and 202. The method of any one of claims 198-201, further comprising calculating probabilities of one or more predicted outcomes for one or more of the predicted outcomes, comprising dividing the number of tournament simulations that predicted the predicted outcome to occur by the total number of tournament simulations.

203. 203. The method of claim 202, wherein the one or more predicted outcomes comprise: a ranking of players by finishing position in one or more rounds of a tournament; a ranking of players by finishing position in a tournament; a finishing position of players in one or more rounds of a tournament; a finishing position range of one or more players in one or more rounds of a tournament; a player winning a tournament; a player being cut; a cut line; or a combination thereof.

204. 204. The method of claim 202 or 203, wherein the one or more predicted outcome probabilities comprise a ranking probability of a player by finishing position in one or more rounds of a tournament, a ranking probability of a player by finishing position in a tournament, a finishing position probability of a player in one or more rounds of a tournament, a probability of a player finishing within a range of finishing positions in one or more rounds of a tournament, a probability of a player winning the tournament, a probability of a player making the cut, a value of the cut line, a probability of the cut line being within a range of values, or a combination thereof.

205. 205. The method of any one of claims 202 to 204, wherein the predicted outcome probabilities comprise a winning probability, a top 10 finishing probability, a cut line probability, and a probability of being cut.

206. 205. The method of any one of claims 137 to 204, further comprising updating the simulation based on actual scores during play of the simulated golf event.

207. 207. The method of claim 206, wherein updating comprises replacing the predicted hole score with the actual hole score as the actual score occurs during play.

208. 208. The method of claim 206 or 207, including updating all simulations based on actual scoring during play of the golf event being simulated, wherein the updating includes: Replacing the predicted hole score with the actual hole score when the player completes the hole; updating a predicted round score taking into account the replaced actual hole score; summing the updated predicted round scores for all tournament rounds to generate an updated predicted tournament score for the participating player; Adding up the updated pre-cut predicted round scores to establish an updated cut line; and For players who qualify, their updated scores will include predicted round scores from post-cut rounds, and for players who do not qualify, their updated scores will not include predicted round scores from post-cut rounds.

209. The method of any one of claims 206 to 208, wherein updating comprises updating a prediction result.

210. A method according to any one of claims 206 to 209, wherein updating comprises updating the probability of the predicted outcome.

211. A method according to any one of claims 206 to 210, wherein the updates are performed continuously in real time during play.

212. A method according to any one of claims 206 to 211, wherein updates are performed at intervals of less than 30 seconds during play as actual live score data is received.

213. A method according to any one of claims 206 to 212, wherein the updating is performed during play of the actual golf event until the end of the event.

214. The method of any one of claims 137 to 213, further comprising transferring each player's information to a database using a player ID and a timestamp to display updated probabilities, thereby enabling digital trending across television broadcast and digital platforms.

215. A system including a processor and a storage medium having instructions stored thereon, A system that, when executed by the processor, causes the system to perform the method of any one of claims 137 to 214.

216. A machine-readable medium storing machine-readable instructions which, when executed by a processor of a machine, cause the machine to perform the method of any one of claims 137 to 214.

217. 1. A system, the system including a golf tournament simulation modeling system; The golf tournament simulation modeling system is programmed to run a plurality of simulations of a golf tournament to generate predicted outcomes of the golf tournament, the golf tournament simulation modeling system comprising: a memory for storing instructions; a processing unit that executes the instructions to perform programmed operations of the golf tournament simulation modeling system; a hole event result generator programmed to generate one or more hole event results for participating players for each hole of each round of the golf tournament using the hole event probabilities as weights, the hole event probabilities generated by the hole event probability generator being based at least in part on historical statistics of golf play stored in the statistics database, the hole event result generator being in communication with the statistics database; a hole score generator programmed to assign, for each participating player and hole, a score probability distribution based on the outcome of one or more hole events occurring on that hole for the participating player, and to generate predicted hole scores comprising random scores based on the score probability distribution for each hole; a prediction engine programmed to calculate the probability of one or more predicted outcomes from the plurality of simulations; and and an update processor programmed to update one or more predicted outcomes, probabilities of the predicted outcomes, or both, of a plurality of simulations based on including actual score data during actual play in a golf tournament.

218. 218. The system of claim 217, wherein the historical statistics represent past occurrences of particular hole events in actual tournament play by a group of players over multiple holes, by a group of players over a particular hole being simulated, and by a player being the subject of a simulation over multiple holes.

219. 219. The system of claim 218, wherein the hole event probabilities are based on historical statistics associated with holes having par values ​​corresponding to the hole being simulated.

220. 218. The system of claim 217, wherein the hole event outcome of a first hole event on a first hole specifies elements necessary to identify historical statistics used to generate a hole event probability for a second hole event on the first hole.

221. 218. The system of claim 217, wherein the first hole event probability for par 4 and par 5 holes comprises the probability that a player will hit the fairway off the tee, and the first hole event probability for par 3 holes comprises the probability that a player will hit the green off the tee.

222. 222. The system of claim 221, wherein said off-tee hole event probabilities use historical statistics consisting of: For par 3 holes: the player's GIR% for the par 3 hole, the overall GIR% for that hole, and the overall GIR% for the par 3 hole; and For Par 4 and Par 5 holes: Player fairway % hit on Par 4 and Par 5 holes, fairway % hit on overall hole, fairway % hit on Par 4 and Par 5 holes.

223. 222. The system of claim 221, wherein the second hole event probabilities for par 4 and par 5 holes comprise the probability that the player will hit the green from a location determined by the predicted outcome of the first hole event.

224. 224. The system of claim 223, wherein if the predicted hole event location outcome of the off-tee location hole event calculated for the hole is a fairway, the subsequent shot location hole event historical statistics comprise historical statistics corresponding to past occurrences of hitting the green from the fairway, consisting of: player GIR% from the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, overall GIR% from the fairway for the hole, and overall GIR% from the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes; and if the predicted hole event location outcome of the off-tee location hole event calculated for the hole is a non-fairway, the subsequent shot location hole event historical statistics comprise historical statistics corresponding to past occurrences of hitting the green from other than the fairway, consisting of: player GIR% from other than the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, overall GIR% from other than the fairway for the hole, and overall GIR% from other than the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes.

225. 218. The system of claim 217, wherein a whole event probability algorithm is used to generate whole event probabilities, said whole event probability algorithm comprising: [Equation 6] where x is the past occurrence of the player performing that hole event, y is the aggregate past occurrence of that hole event on a particular hole, and z is the aggregate past occurrence of that hole event during play across multiple courses.

226. 218. The system of claim 217, wherein the score probability distribution represents a historical score distribution for a hole that takes into account the possible occurrence of each hole event outcome or combination of hole event outcomes for the hole.

227. 218. The system of claim 217, wherein the update processor is configured to: When the player finishes a hole, replace the predicted hole score with the actual hole score; updating the predicted round score taking into account the replaced actual hole score; Adding up the updated predicted round scores for all tournament rounds to generate an updated predicted tournament score for each participating player; Add up the updated pre-cut predicted round scores to establish an updated cut line; Include predicted round scores for post-cut rounds in players' scores updated upon qualifying; and Scores updated for players who did not qualify will not include predicted round scores from post-cut rounds.

228. 218. The system of claim 217, wherein the update processor is further programmed to transmit each player's predicted outcome probability to a database using the player ID and a timestamp, and display the latest probabilities to enable trending display digitally across television broadcasts and digital platforms.

229. 1. A system for updating a golf tournament simulation, the system comprising: an update processor programmed to perform update operations relating to the golf tournament simulation after actual play of golf begins; a memory for storing instructions; a processing unit that executes the instructions to perform programmed operations of the update processor, the operations including: Replacing the predicted hole score with the actual hole score when the player completes the hole; updating a predicted round score taking into account the replaced actual hole score; generating updated predicted tournament scores for all participating players from the updated predicted round scores for all tournament rounds for all participating players; establishing an updated cut line from the updated predicted round scores of the pre-cut round; In the updated projected tournament scores, if a player has qualified, the updated scores include projected round scores for post-cut rounds, and if a player has not qualified, the updated scores do not include projected round scores for post-cut rounds; and By updating the prediction results, updating each tournament simulation of a golf tournament in real time; and updating probabilities of one or more predicted outcomes based on the collectively updated predicted outcomes.

230. 230. The system of claim 229, wherein the probabilities of the one or more predicted outcomes comprise a probability of winning, a probability of finishing in the top 10, a cut line probability, and a probability of being cut.

231. 1. A method of simulating a golf event, the method comprising: and executing a simulated round for each player participating in a golf event using a golf tournament simulation modeling system programmed to execute a simulation of a golf tournament, the golf tournament simulation modeling system including a memory for storing instructions and a processing unit for executing the instructions to perform programmed operations of the golf tournament simulation modeling system, the operations including: generating predicted hole scores for each hole of the golf round, where for each hole: calculating, with a hole event probability generator, hole event probabilities for each of one or more hole events assigned to a hole in the golf round; generating, with a hole event outcome generator, predicted hole event outcomes for each of the one or more hole events using the calculated hole event probabilities for each hole event as weights; assigning, with a hole score generator, a score probability distribution from a plurality of score probability distributions for the hole corresponding to the one or more predicted hole event outcomes generated for the hole; and generating a predicted hole score using the assigned score probability distribution using the hole score generator, the operations further comprising: generating, with a prediction engine, predicted round scores from the predicted hole scores.

232. 232. The method of claim 231, wherein calculating one or more hole event probabilities is based at least in part on historical statistics representing past occurrences of hole events in actual tournament play by a population of players for multiple holes, by a population of players for the particular hole being simulated, and by players being the subject of the simulation for multiple holes.

233. 232. The method of claim 231 , wherein calculating one or more of the hole event probabilities includes processing, with a score distribution engine, historical statistics representing past occurrences of hole events in actual tournament play through the following event probability model: [Equation 7] where x is the past occurrence of the player performing the hole event, y is the aggregate past occurrence of the hole event on a particular hole, and z is the aggregate past occurrence of the hole event during play across multiple courses.

234. 234. The method of claim 233, wherein the hole event probability corresponds to the probability that a hole event will occur on a hole, and the historical statistics relate to holes having hole attributes corresponding to the hole being simulated.

235. 235. The method of claim 234, wherein the first hole event probability for a par 4 hole includes the probability that the player will hit the fairway off the tee, x is the player's hit fairway % for par 4 and par 5 holes, y is the overall hit fairway % for the hole, and z is the overall hit fairway % for par 4 and par 5 holes.

236. 236. The method of claim 235, wherein the second hole event probability for a par 4 hole comprises the probability that the player will hit the green on the subsequent shot from a location specified by the predicted outcome of the first hole event.

237. 237. The method of claim 236, wherein if the predicted outcome of the first hole event is hitting the fairway, the historical statistics correspond to past occurrences of hitting the green from the fairway, x is the player GIR% from the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, y is the overall GIR% for the hole from the fairway for the hole, and z is the overall GIR% for the hole from the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes; and if the predicted outcome of the first hole event is missing the fairway, the historical statistics correspond to past occurrences of hitting the green from off the fairway, x is the player GIR% from off the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, y is the overall GIR% for the hole from off the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes, and z is the overall GIR% for the hole from off the fairway for par 4 and par 5 holes.

238. 232. The method of claim 231, wherein generating a predicted hole event outcome for each of one or more hole events using the calculated hole event probabilities for each hole event as weights comprises inputting the calculated hole event probabilities into a weighted random generator algorithm.

239. 232. The method of claim 231, wherein each hole is associated with a plurality of score probability distributions, each score probability distribution corresponding to a particular predicted hole event outcome or combination of predicted hole event outcomes for the hole.

240. 240. The method of claim 239, wherein the score probability distribution represents a historical score distribution for a hole given the occurrence of a particular hole event.

241. 241. The method of claim 240, wherein assigning the score probability distribution comprises pairing one or more of the predicted hole event outcomes for a hole with the score probability distribution corresponding to the predicted hole event outcome.

242. 232. The method of claim 231, wherein generating the predicted hole score using the assigned score probability distribution comprises inputting the assigned score probability distribution into a random score selector algorithm to generate a predicted hole score.

243. 232. The method of claim 231, further comprising applying a score adjustment to the predicted hole score with a modification engine.

244. 232. The method of claim 231, wherein the adjustment is applied to each hole score.

245. 232. The method of claim 231, wherein a modification engine is used to adjust the predicted hole scores based on a deviation between an average round score for all tournament rounds and a particular tournament round for the player's tournament being simulated.

246. 229. A method of using the system of any one of claims 217 to 228 to simulate golf play in a golf tournament.

247. A machine-readable medium storing machine-readable instructions that, when executed by a processor of the machine, cause the machine to implement the system of any one of claims 217 to 228.

248. 231. A method of using the system of claim 229 or 230 to simulate golf play in a golf tournament.

249. A machine-readable medium having stored thereon machine-readable instructions which, when executed by a processor of the machine, cause the machine to implement the system of claim 229 or 230.

250. A system comprising a processor and a storage medium storing instructions that, when executed by the processor, cause the system to perform the method of any one of claims 231 to 245.

251. A machine-readable medium storing machine-readable instructions that, when executed by a processor of the machine, cause the machine to perform the method of any one of claims 231-245.

252. Use of a system according to any one of claims 1 to 12 to simulate golf play in a golf tournament.

253. A machine-readable medium having stored thereon machine-readable instructions which, when executed by a processor of the machine, cause the machine to implement the system of any one of claims 1 to 12.

254. 15. A method of using the system of claim 13 or 14 to simulate golf play in a golf tournament.

255. A machine-readable medium having stored thereon machine-readable instructions which, when executed by a processor of the machine, cause the machine to implement the system of claim 13 or 14.

256. A system comprising a processor and a storage medium storing instructions that, when executed by the processor, cause the system to perform the method of any one of claims 15 to 29.

257. A machine-readable medium having stored thereon machine-readable instructions which, when executed by a processor of the machine, cause the machine to perform the method of any one of claims 15 to 29.

Images