Risk management system and method

Abstract

To evaluate a risk and plan an appropriate countermeasure therefor.SOLUTION: A risk management system includes countermeasure information indicating a relationship between each of a plurality of risk types and a countermeasure for the risk type and a plurality of risk models that correspond to the plurality of risk types to define processing for predicting a risk value at each time point in the future and determining a countermeasure therefor, selects a risk model corresponding to a risk type for each component, predicts a future risk value of each component by inputting result information into the selected risk model, and extracts a countermeasure corresponding to the risk type based on the countermeasure information according to the risk model. Further, the risk management system includes risk structure information defining a countermeasure for a managed object and a threshold value for applying the countermeasure based on a structural relationship between the managed object and the component, and determines an execution time in which the countermeasure is to be applied, based on the threshold value and the risk value of each component predicted by a risk prediction unit.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a technique for managing risks of facilities and the like. [Background technology]

[0002] For important facilities such as power supply equipment, it is necessary to evaluate the risks, provide appropriate maintenance, and maintain sound operations.

[0003] Patent Document 1 discloses a means for calculating a current risk value using a risk model and generating an optimal countermeasure plan. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] JP 2008-129648 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] For large-scale facilities, maintenance and operation plans must be developed taking into account many factors. For example, various factors affect the risks of the facility, such as the characteristics of each of the many pieces of equipment contained in the facility, the degree of deterioration of each piece of equipment due to external factors in the environment in which the facility is located, etc. It is difficult to create appropriate countermeasures for risks in such a complex maintenance and operation plan.

[0006] Patent Document 1 discloses a technique for predicting a risk value using a risk model. However, the method described in Patent Document 1 does not evaluate naturally occurring risks such as equipment deterioration, but evaluates the risk associated with performing work using a risk model. Therefore, the technique in Patent Document 1 cannot be said to be suitable for drawing up a plan for what kind of work to perform in maintenance or operation.

[0007] One objective of the present disclosure is to provide a technique that assists in assessing risks and planning appropriate countermeasures. [Means for solving the problem]

[0008] A risk management system according to one embodiment of the present disclosure is a risk management system that supports risk management of a managed object including a plurality of components, and includes: countermeasure information indicating a relationship between each of a plurality of risk types and countermeasures for the risk type; and a plurality of risk models that specify a process for predicting a risk value at each future point in time corresponding to each of the plurality of risk types and determining a countermeasure; a risk prediction unit that selects a risk model corresponding to the risk type for each of the components from among the plurality of risk models, provides performance information to the selected risk model to predict a future risk value for each of the components, and extracts a countermeasure corresponding to the risk type based on the countermeasure information in accordance with the risk model; and an integration unit that includes risk structure information that defines countermeasures for the managed object and thresholds for applying the countermeasures based on a structural relationship between the managed object and the components, and determines the implementation timing for applying the countermeasures based on the risk values ​​of each of the components predicted by the risk prediction unit 11 and the thresholds.

[0009] A risk management method according to one aspect of the present disclosure is a risk management method for supporting risk management of a managed object including a plurality of components by a risk management system, comprising: countermeasure information indicating a relationship between each of a plurality of risk types and countermeasures for the risk type; and a plurality of risk models that specify a process for predicting a risk value at each future point in time corresponding to each of the plurality of risk types and determining a countermeasure, comprising a risk prediction step of selecting a risk model corresponding to the risk type for each of the components from among the plurality of risk models, providing performance information to the selected risk model to predict a future risk value for each of the components, and extracting a countermeasure corresponding to the risk type based on the countermeasure information in accordance with the risk model; and an integration step of providing risk structure information that defines countermeasures for the managed object and thresholds for applying the countermeasures based on a structural relationship between the managed object and the components, and determining an implementation timing for applying the countermeasures based on the risk values ​​of each of the components predicted by the risk prediction unit 11 and the thresholds. Effect of the Invention

[0010] According to one aspect of the present disclosure, it is possible to assess risks and plan appropriate countermeasures. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0011] [Figure 1] 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration example of an optimization system according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Diagram 2] 1 is a flowchart showing an example of an overall process of the optimization system. [Diagram 3] FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an example of risk model template information. [Figure 4] FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of device information. [Diagram 5] FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an example of individual prediction information. [Figure 6] 13 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a process of a predictive calculation initialization unit. [Figure 7] FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of risk structure information. [Figure 8] FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating an example of schedule information. [Figure 9] 13 is a flowchart showing an example of a process of an optimization calculation executing unit. [Figure 10] 13 is a flowchart illustrating an example of processing of an integrated computation executing unit. [Figure 11] 13 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a process of a prediction calculation executing unit. [Figure 12] FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating an example of information output by an output unit. [Figure 13] 13 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a process of a maintenance operation plan output unit. [Figure 14] 13 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a process of an insurance plan output unit. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0012] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

[0013] <Optimization system configuration> The configuration of the optimization system will be described with reference to Fig. 1. Fig. 1 is a block diagram showing an example of the configuration of an optimization system 1 according to the present embodiment.

[0014] The optimization system 1 is an example of a risk management system, and supports risk management of a managed object including a plurality of components. In this embodiment, the managed object is a substation, and the components are described as transformers. However, the managed object and the components are not limited to these. The managed object may be interpreted as a facility, and the components may be interpreted as devices constituting the facility.

[0015] As shown in FIG. 1, the optimization system 1 is configured by a computer including a processor 15, an input / output device 16, and a memory 17.

[0016] The memory 17 stores software programs and data for implementing functions provided by the optimization system 1. The memory 17 is configured, for example, by a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a Random Access Memory (RAM), a flash memory, or a combination of these.

[0017] The input / output device 16 is a device (interface) for connecting the disks 2, the network 3, the display device 4, etc. to the optimization system 1. The disks 2 are configured, for example, by HDDs (Hard Disk Drives), SSDs (Solid State Drives), flash memories, or a combination thereof. The disks 2 may be configured as RAIDs (Redundant Arrays of Inexpensive Disks).

[0018] Examples of the network 3 include a power communication network 3, a LAN (Local Area Network), the Internet, a cellular network, etc. Examples of the display device 4 include a liquid crystal display, an organic EL display, a PC, a smartphone, a tablet terminal, etc.

[0019] The processor 15 reads out software programs, data, etc. from the memory 17, the disk 2, the network 3, etc., and processes them. The processor 15 writes data, information, etc. generated by various processes into the memory 17 or the disk 2, transmits it via the network 3, or displays it on the display device 4. The risk prediction unit 11, the integration unit 12, and the output unit 13 are realized by the processor 15 executing the software programs read out from the memory 17.

[0020] The risk prediction unit 11 is provided with countermeasure information indicating the relationship between each of a plurality of risk types and countermeasures for that risk type, and a plurality of risk models for predicting risk values ​​at each future point in time corresponding to each of the plurality of risk types, and selects a risk model corresponding to the risk type for each of the components from among the plurality of risk models, provides performance information to the selected risk model to predict the future risk value of each of the components, and calculates a new risk value and the cost required to execute the countermeasure when the countermeasure is executed based on the countermeasure information.

[0021] The integration unit 12 is provided with risk structure information that defines countermeasures for the managed objects based on the structural relationship between the managed objects and the components, and threshold values ​​that serve as the criterion for determining whether or not to apply the countermeasures, and determines the implementation timing for applying the countermeasures based on the respective risk values ​​and threshold values ​​of the components predicted by the risk prediction unit 11.

[0022] In this way, the optimization system 1 prepares a risk model for each risk type in advance, selects an appropriate risk model for each component to evaluate the risk value, and determines countermeasures for the managed object based on the risk value and risk structure information of each component, thereby assisting in appropriately evaluating risks and planning appropriate countermeasures for the managed object including the components.

[0023] The countermeasure information may include, for each risk type, preventive measure information indicating the relationship between preventive measures for preventing the occurrence of the risk in advance and the cost required for the preventive measures, and recovery measure information indicating the relationship between the risk type and recovery measures for restoring the managed object to its original state when the risk of the risk type occurs and the cost required for the recovery measures. This makes it possible to appropriately evaluate the risk and to assist in planning appropriate preventive measures and recovery measures.

[0024] The risk types may include one or more of equipment deterioration risk, which indicates the risk due to deterioration of the condition of equipment included in the managed object, natural disaster risk, which indicates the risk due to the impact of natural disasters on the managed object, and cyber attack risk, which indicates the risk due to cyber attacks on the managed object. This makes it possible to accurately evaluate the risk of equipment deterioration, natural disasters, or cyber attacks using a risk model suitable for the nature of the risk.

[0025] The output unit 13 classifies and outputs the countermeasures determined by the integration unit 12 according to the attributes in the countermeasure information. For example, if an attribute can have two values, "maintenance" or "operation", the output unit 13 outputs two tables with the attributes "maintenance" and "operation", each of which describes the content and implementation time of the countermeasure. This allows the user to know the implementation time when the countermeasure should be applied and what preventive or recovery measures should be taken.

[0026] In addition, the output unit 13 outputs the total risk value of the managed object calculated using the risk model in association with information indicating whether insurance should be applied based on the total risk value. This allows the user to know the magnitude of risk in the entire managed object, and can use it as a basis for deciding whether insurance should be applied to the managed object.

[0027] The processes performed by the risk prediction unit 11, the integration unit 12 and the output unit 13 will be described below.

[0028] The risk prediction unit 11 may include, as processing, a prediction calculation initialization unit 110 and a prediction calculation execution unit 111. The risk prediction unit 11 may include, as information, risk model template information 115, device information 116, and individual prediction information 117.

[0029] The predictive calculation initialization unit 110 initializes the predictive calculation. Details of the process performed by the predictive calculation initialization unit 110 will be described later (see FIG. 6).

[0030] The predictive calculation execution unit 111 executes predictive calculation. Details of the process of the predictive calculation execution unit 111 will be described later (see FIG. 11).

[0031] The risk model template information 115 includes information that serves as a template when constructing a risk model. The risk model template information 115 will be described in detail later (see FIG. 3).

[0032] The device information 116 includes information related to the device. The device information 116 will be described in detail later (see FIG. 4).

[0033] The individual prediction information 117 includes information predicting the risk of an individual device breaking down, etc. Details of the individual prediction information 117 will be described later (see FIG. 5).

[0034] The integrator 12 may include, as processes, an integration calculation execution unit 120 and an optimization calculation execution unit 121. The integrator 12 may include, as information, risk structure information 125 and schedule information 126.

[0035] The integrated calculation execution unit 120 executes the integrated calculation. The details of the processing by the integrated calculation execution unit 120 will be described later (see FIG. 10).

[0036] The optimization calculation execution unit 121 executes optimization calculations. Details of the processing performed by the optimization calculation execution unit 121 will be described later (see FIG. 9).

[0037] The risk structure information 125 is information that indicates the risk structure of the device and equipment. The risk structure information 125 will be described in detail later (see FIG. 7).

[0038] The schedule information 126 is information showing a schedule relating to risks that change over time and costs incurred to prevent or recover from the risks. Details of the schedule information 126 will be described later (see FIG. 8).

[0039] The output unit 13 may include, as processing, a maintenance operation plan output unit 130 and an insurance plan output unit 131. The output unit 13 may include, as information, maintenance plan information 136, operation plan information 137, and insurance plan information 138.

[0040] The maintenance operation plan output unit 130 makes plans regarding maintenance and operation, and generates and outputs maintenance plan information 136 and operation plan information 137. Details of the processing by the maintenance operation plan output unit 130 will be described later (see FIG. 13). Details of the maintenance plan information 136 and the operation plan information 137 will be described later (see FIG. 12).

[0041] The insurance plan output unit 131 makes plans regarding the application of insurance, and generates and outputs insurance plan information 138. The insurance plan output unit 131 will be described in detail later (see FIG. 14). ).

[0042] <Overall processing of the optimization system> The overall processing of the optimization system 1 will be described with reference to Fig. 2. Fig. 2 is a flowchart showing an example of the overall processing of the optimization system 1.

[0043] The optimization system 1 (processor 15) starts the following process (S101).

[0044] The optimization system 1 starts up the predictive calculation initialization unit 110 (S102). The process performed by the predictive calculation initialization unit 110 will be described later in detail (see FIG. 6).

[0045] The optimization system 1 starts up the optimization calculation execution unit 121 (S103). The details of the process performed by the optimization calculation execution unit 121 will be described later (see FIG. 9).

[0046] The optimization system 1 starts up the maintenance operation plan output unit 130 (S104). The details of the process performed by the maintenance operation plan output unit 130 will be described later (see FIG. 13).

[0047] The optimization system 1 starts up the insurance plan output unit 131 (S105). The details of the process performed by the insurance plan output unit 131 will be described later (see FIG. 14).

[0048] The optimization system 1 ends this process (S106).

[0049] <Risk Prediction Department> Next, the risk prediction unit 11 will be described in detail.

[0050] FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of the risk model template information 115. As shown in FIG.

[0051] The risk model template information 115 is information used as a template when creating a risk model. The risk model template information 115 is created by, for example, a user.

[0052] The risk model template information 115 has, as items, a risk model ID 1151, performance information 1152, current information 1153, prediction function 1154, preventive action information 1155, recovery action information 1156, and prediction processing information 1157. Note that information including the preventive action information 1155 and the recovery action information 1156 may be referred to as countermeasure information. Also, individual prediction information 117 is risk model template information 115 with information of individual devices set therein.

[0053] The risk model ID 1151 is information for identifying the risk model template information. For example, “Model A” is input as the value of the risk model ID 1151.

[0054] The performance information 1152 is a storage area for storing the history of the risk value specific to the device when the information of the specific device is set in the risk model template to be used as individual prediction information. In the risk model template information 115, the performance information may be empty.

[0055] The current information 1153 is a storage area that holds the current elapsed time t and risk value v when information of a specific device is set in the risk model template to create individual prediction information. In the current information 1153 of the risk model template information 115, an initial value such as 0 may be input to the elapsed time t, the risk value v, and the like.

[0056] The prediction function 1154 is information indicating a function for predicting a risk value v at a future elapsed time t.

[0057] The preventive action information 1155 is information indicating the relationship between the risk type, the preventive action for preventing the occurrence of the risk of the risk type, and the cost required for the preventive action. The preventive action may include the maintenance inspection of a component (e.g., a transformer) or the maintenance replacement of the component. This can assist in appropriately evaluating the risk and planning appropriate maintenance inspection and replacement. The preventive action may also include an operation method of the component for reducing the risk. This operation method is, for example, a load reduction operation that reduces the maximum allowable load of the component according to the elapsed time since the start of use, or, for example, an operation that changes the power transmission path to temporarily suspend some equipment in order to enable inspection or repair of the component. This can assist in appropriately evaluating the risk and planning appropriate load reduction operation.

[0058] The recovery action information 1156 is information indicating the relationship between the risk type, the recovery action for restoring the managed object to the original state when a risk of the risk type occurs, and the cost required for the recovery action. Note that the recovery action may include repair of a component (e.g., a transformer) and replacement of the component. This makes it possible to support the evaluation of the cost for recovery from a failure when a risk prediction is wrong and a failure actually occurs, and to plan appropriate repairs and replacements.

[0059] The prediction process information 1157 is information indicating a process method for risk prediction using the risk model. For example, the risk is predicted by the following process.

[0060] The prediction calculation execution unit 111 starts the next process (S571).

[0061] The predictive calculation executing unit 111 receives the preventive measure name P and the recovery measure name R from another process (for example, the process of S1114 in FIG. 11). Then, the predictive calculation executing unit 111 initializes the variable C to 0 (S572).

[0062] The prediction calculation executing unit 111 modifies the elapsed time t and the risk value v of the current information 1173 (see FIG. 5) by using the performance information 1172 (see FIG. 5) (S573).

[0063] The prediction calculation execution unit 111 modifies the elapsed time t and the risk value v of the current information 1173 using the prediction function 1174 (see FIG. 5) (S574).

[0064] The prediction calculation execution unit 111 detects a set of measure names that match the preventive device name P input in S572 from the preventive measure information 1175 (see Figure 5), and if detected, sets the risk value v of that set to the risk value v of the current information 1173, and adds the cost of that set to the variable C (S575).

[0065] The prediction calculation execution unit 111 detects a set of action names that match the recovery action name R input in S572 from the recovery action information 1176 (see Figure 5), and if detected, sets the risk value v of that set to the risk value v of the current information 1173, and adds the cost of that set to the variable C (S576).

[0066] The prediction calculation executing unit 111 outputs the variable C as the cost (S577), and ends this process (S578).

[0067] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of the device information 116. As shown in FIG.

[0068] The device information 116 has, as items, a device ID 1161, a risk model ID 1162, initial information 1163, performance information 1164, and threshold information 1165.

[0069] The device ID 1161 is information for identifying a device, which is an example of a configuration element.

[0070] The risk model ID 1162 is information for identifying the risk model template information. The risk model ID 1162 corresponds to the risk model ID 1151 in FIG.

[0071] The initial information 1163 is information indicating the initial value of the current information 1153 of the risk model template information indicated by the risk model ID 1162 .

[0072] The performance information 1164 is information indicating a performance value corresponding to the performance information 1152 of the risk model template information indicated by the risk model ID 1162 .

[0073] The threshold information 1165 is information indicating a threshold for determining whether or not to take preventive measures and a threshold for determining whether or not to take recovery measures.

[0074] As shown in the first and second lines of the device information 116 in Fig. 4, one device (Transformer1) can have multiple risk models (ModelA, ModelB). The device information 116 may be used when generating individual prediction information 117, which will be described later.

[0075] FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of the individual prediction information 117. As shown in FIG.

[0076] The individual prediction information 117 includes, as items, an ID 1171 , performance information 1172 , current information 1173 , a prediction function 1174 , preventive action information 1175 , recovery action information 1176 , prediction processing information 1177 , cost information 1178 , and threshold information 1179 .

[0077] The ID 1171 is information for identifying the individual prediction information 117. The ID 1171 may be configured to include the device ID 1161 and the risk model ID 1162 in the device information .

[0078] In the performance information 1172, performance information 1164 of the device information 116 specified by the device ID 1161 and risk model ID 1162 indicated by the ID 1171 is set.

[0079] In the current information 1173, current information specified based on the risk model indicated by the risk model ID 1162 indicated by the ID 1171 is set.

[0080] In the prediction function 1174, the prediction function 1154 of the risk model template information 115 specified by the risk model ID 1162 indicated by the ID 1171 is set.

[0081] In the preventive action information 1175, the preventive action information 1155 of the risk model template information 115 specified by the risk model ID 1162 indicated by the ID 1171 is set.

[0082] In the recovery action information 1176, the recovery action information 1156 of the risk model template information 115 specified by the risk model ID 1162 indicated by the ID 1171 is set.

[0083] In the prediction process information 1177, the prediction process information 1157 of the risk model template information 115 specified by the risk model ID 1162 indicated by the ID 1171 is set.

[0084] In the cost information 1178, the cost of taking the preventive measure or the transfer measure indicated by the risk model ID 1162 for the device ID 1161 indicated by the ID 1171 is set.

[0085] In the threshold information 1179, threshold information 1165 of the device information 116 specified by the device ID 1161 and risk model ID 1162 indicated by the ID 1171 is set.

[0086] FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing an example of the process of the predictive calculation initialization unit 110. As shown in FIG.

[0087] The predictive calculation initialization unit 110 starts the following process (S1101).

[0088] The prediction calculation initialization unit 110 initializes the individual prediction information 117 to make it empty (S1102).

[0089] The predictive calculation initialization unit 110 determines whether or not the processing of all rows of the device information 116 has been completed (S1103).

[0090] If the processing of all rows of the device information 116 has been completed (S1103: YES), the predictive calculation initialization unit 110 ends this processing (S1109).

[0091] If an unprocessed row remains in the device information 116 (S1103: NO), the predictive calculation initialization unit 110 extracts one unprocessed row (S1104) from the device information 116. Hereinafter, the extracted row will be referred to as row L.

[0092] The prediction calculation initialization unit 110 compares the risk model ID 1162 of row L with the risk model ID 1151 of the risk model template information 115, and selects the risk model template information 115 whose risk model ID matches (S1105). Hereinafter, the individual prediction information 117 generated based on the risk model template information 115 selected here will be expressed as information T.

[0093] The predictive calculation initialization unit 110 sets the initial information 1163 of row L to the current information 1173 of information T, sets the actual information 1164 of row L to the actual information 1172 of information T, and sets the threshold information 1165 of row L to the threshold information 1179 of information T (S1106).

[0094] The predictive calculation initialization unit 110 sets a value including the device ID 1161 and the risk model ID 1162 of row L to the ID 1172 of the information T (S1107).

[0095] The prediction calculation initialization unit 110 generates the information T set in S1106 and S1107 as individual prediction information 117 (S1108). Then, the prediction calculation initialization unit 110 returns the process to S1103. As a result, the initial individual prediction information 117 as shown in FIG. 5, which will be described later, is generated.

[0096] <Integration Department> Next, the integration unit 12 will be described in detail.

[0097] FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of the risk structure information 125. As shown in FIG.

[0098] The risk structure information 125 has, as items, an ID 1251 , a subordinate list 1252 , current information 1253 , an aggregation function 1254 , preventive action execution information 1255 , recovery action execution information 1256 , cost information 1257 , and threshold information 1258 .

[0099] The ID 1251 indicates a value for identifying the risk structure information 125. The ID 1251 includes, for example, a management target ID and a risk model ID.

[0100] The subordinate list 1252 indicates a list of IDs of the individual prediction information 117 managed by the risk structure information 125 as subordinates.

[0101] The current information 1253 indicates the current elapsed time and risk value of the management target indicated by the ID 1251 .

[0102] The aggregation function 1254 indicates a function used to aggregate the risk values ​​of the individual prediction information 117 included in the subordinate list 1252 .

[0103] The preventive action execution information 1255 indicates information regarding preventive actions that are recommended to be executed for the management target indicated by the ID 1251 .

[0104] The recovery action execution information 1256 indicates information related to a recovery action that is recommended to be executed for the management target indicated by the ID 1251 .

[0105] The cost information 1257 indicates the amount of cost incurred when at least one of preventive measures and recovery measures is executed on the management target indicated by the ID 1251 .

[0106] The threshold information 1258 indicates a threshold for determining whether or not to execute a preventive measure, and a threshold for determining whether or not to execute a recovery measure.

[0107] For example, the risk structure information 125 is used when it is desired to evaluate the overall risk of Substation 1 including Transformer 1 and Transformer 2 with respect to the risk predicted by Model A.

[0108] In the risk structure information 125 shown in FIG. 7, the two IDs 1171 included in the individual prediction information 117, one for "Transformer1+ModelA" and the other for "Transformer1+ModelA", are combined to obtain one risk value.

[0109] "Max(child[1:2])" shown in the aggregation function 1254 means to select the one with the greater risk between the first and second (i.e., all) in the subordinate list 1252. In other words, the risk of the substation is considered to be the risk of the transformer with the greater risk.

[0110] "child[1:2]<-P1" shown in the preventive action execution information 1255 indicates that it is recommended to perform a preventive action with the preventive action name P1 for each transformer.

[0111] "max(child[1:2])<-R1" shown in the recovery action execution information 1256 indicates that it is recommended to perform recovery action R1 on the transformer with the greater risk.

[0112] All instances of the individual prediction information 117 may be subordinate to at least one risk structure information 125. However, the risk structure information 125 may have only one individual prediction information 117 in its subordinate list 1252.

[0113] In this embodiment, for ease of explanation, individual prediction information 117 is included in the subordinate list 1252 of risk structure information 125, but another risk structure information 125 may be included in the subordinate list 1252 of risk structure information 125 to form a multi-stage hierarchy.

[0114] FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of the schedule information 126. As shown in FIG.

[0115] The schedule information 126 has, as items, an elapsed period W 1261 , a risk structure information ID 1262 , a preventive action parameter P 1263 , a restorative action parameter R 1264 , a cost 1265 , and a risk value 1266 .

[0116] The elapsed period W1261 indicates the period of time that has elapsed since the start of use of the managed object (e.g., a substation). The unit of the elapsed period W shown in Fig. 8 is "weeks". However, the unit of the elapsed period W1261 is not limited to "weeks" and may be hours, days, or the like.

[0117] The risk structure information ID 1262 indicates the ID 1251 of the risk structure information 125 .

[0118] The preventive action parameter P1263 is a parameter indicating whether or not to perform a preventive action. In Fig. 8, "1" indicates that a preventive action is performed, and "0" indicates that a preventive action is not performed. However, the definition of "1" and "0" is merely an example, and the value of the parameter indicating whether or not to perform a preventive action may be defined in any way.

[0119] The recovery measure parameter R1264 is a parameter indicating whether to perform a recovery measure. In FIG. 8, "1" indicates performing a recovery measure, and "0" indicates not performing a recovery measure. However, the definitions of "1" and "0" are just examples, and the values of the parameter indicating whether to perform a recovery measure may be defined in any way.

[0120] Cost 1265 indicates the magnitude of the cost incurred when performing a preventive measure or a recovery measure.

[0121] The risk value 1266 indicates the magnitude of the risk remaining in the management target when a preventive measure or a recovery measure is performed.

[0122] FIG. 9 is a flowchart showing an example of the processing of the optimization calculation execution unit 121.

[0123] The optimization calculation execution unit 121 starts the following processing (S12101).

[0124] The optimization calculation execution unit 121 receives the input predicted number of time steps N (N is an integer greater than or equal to 1) and initializes the elapsed period W to zero (S12102). Note that the predicted number of time steps N may be input by the user or input from other processing.

[0125] The optimization calculation execution unit 121 determines whether the elapsed period W is less than the predicted number of time steps N (i.e., W < N) (S12103).

[0126] If W is not less than N (S12103: NO), the optimization calculation execution unit 121 ends this processing (S12104).

[0127] If W is less than N (S12103: YES), the optimization calculation execution unit 121 determines whether the processing for all the risk structure information 125 has been completed (S12105).

[0128] When the processing has been completed for all the risk structure information 125 (S12105: YES), the optimization calculation executing unit 121 adds 1 to the elapsed period W (S12106) and returns the processing to S12103.

[0129] If unprocessed risk structure information 125 remains (S12105: NO), the optimization calculation execution unit 121 extracts one unprocessed risk structure information 125. In the explanation of Fig. 9, this extracted risk structure information 125 is expressed as risk structure information S. In addition, the optimization calculation execution unit 121 initializes a preventive action parameter P to 0, and initializes a recovery action parameter R to 0 (S12107).

[0130] If the risk value v of the current information 1253 of the risk structure information S is equal to or greater than the recovery threshold of the threshold information 1258, the optimization calculation executing unit 121 sets the recovery measure parameter R to 1 (S12108).

[0131] If the recovery measure parameter R is 0 and the risk value v of the current information 1253 of the risk structure information S is equal to or greater than the prevention threshold of the threshold information 1258, the optimization calculation executing unit 121 sets the preventive measure parameter P to 1 (S12109).

[0132] The optimization calculation execution unit 121 starts the integrated calculation execution unit 120 using the risk structure information S, the preventive action parameter P, and the recovery action parameter R as input parameters (S12110). The details of the processing of the integrated calculation execution unit 120 will be described later (see FIG. 10), but this processing obtains values ​​of the current information and cost information in the risk structure information S.

[0133] The optimization calculation execution unit 121 stores the elapsed period W, the ID 1251 of the risk structure information S, the preventive action parameter P, the recovery action parameter R, the cost information 1257 of the risk structure information S, and the risk value v of the current information 1253 of the risk structure information S in each item of the schedule information 126 (S12111). As a result, one row of the schedule information 126 shown in Fig. 8 is obtained. Then, the integrated calculation execution unit 120 returns the process to step S12105.

[0134] Through the above process, the schedule information 126 shown in FIG. 8 is generated.

[0135] 10 is a flowchart showing an example of the processing of the integrated computation executing unit 120. The integrated computation executing unit 120 is started up in S12110 of FIG.

[0136] The integrated computation execution unit 120 starts the next process (S12001).

[0137] 9, the integrated calculation execution unit 120 receives, as input parameters, the risk structure information 125 (hereinafter referred to as risk structure information E), the preventive action parameter P, and the restorative action parameter R (S12002).

[0138] The integrated calculation execution unit 120 initializes the current value list V to an empty set, and initializes the cost information 1257 of the risk structure information E to 0 (S12003).

[0139] The integrated calculation executing unit 120 judges whether or not the processing has been completed for all the individual prediction information 117 included in the subordinate list 1252 of the risk structure information E (S12004).

[0140] If the processing has been completed for all the individual forecast information 117 included in the subordinate list 1252 (S12004: YES), the integrated calculation executing unit 120 advances the processing to step S12011, which will be described later.

[0141] If unprocessed individual prediction information 117 remains in the subordinate list 1252 (S12004: NO), the integrated calculation execution unit 120 extracts one unprocessed individual prediction information 117 from the subordinate list 1252 (S12005). Hereinafter, this extracted individual prediction information 117 is referred to as individual prediction information F.

[0142] When the preventive device parameter P is 1 (i.e., when preventive measures are recommended), the integrated calculation execution unit 120 uses the preventive measure execution information 1255 of the risk structure information E to obtain the preventive measure information P' (1175) in the individual prediction information F (S12006).

[0143] When the recovery action parameter R is 1 (i.e., when execution of recovery action is recommended), the integrated calculation execution unit 120 uses the recovery action execution information 1256 to obtain the recovery action information R' (1176) in the individual forecast information F (S12007).

[0144] The integrated calculation execution unit 120 calls the prediction calculation execution unit 111 using the individual prediction information F, the preventive action information P', and the recovery action information R' as input parameters (S12008). The details of the process of the prediction calculation execution unit 111 will be described later (see FIG. 11), but this process makes it possible to obtain the values ​​of the current information and cost information in the individual prediction information F.

[0145] The integrated calculation executing unit 120 receives the risk value d and the cost c from the prediction calculation executing unit 111 (S12009).

[0146] The integrated calculation executing unit 120 adds the risk value d to the current value list V, and adds the cost c to the cost information of the risk structure information E (S12010). Then, the integrated calculation executing unit 120 returns the process to step S12004.

[0147] In step S12011, the integrated calculation executing unit 120 inputs the current value list V to the aggregation function 1254 of the risk structure information E, and stores the output of the aggregation function 1254 in the current information 1253 of the risk structure information E (S12011). Then, the integrated calculation executing unit 120 ends this process (S12012).

[0148] As a result, the risk value of the equipment with the highest risk among the equipment indicated by the individual prediction information 117 included in the subordinate list 1252 is registered in the current information 1253 of the risk structure information E. For example, if the ID 1251 of the risk structure information 125 indicates a substation and each ID of the subordinate list 1252 indicates each transformer that constitutes the substation, the risk value of the transformer with the highest risk is registered in the current information 1253 of the risk structure information 125.

[0149] 11 is a flowchart showing an example of the process of the predictive calculation executing unit 111. The predictive calculation executing unit 111 is called in S12008 of FIG.

[0150] The prediction calculation execution unit 111 starts the next process (S1111).

[0151] The prediction calculation execution unit 111 receives the individual prediction information 117, the preventive action information 1175, and the recovery action information 1176 as input parameters from the process of S12008 in Fig. 10 (S1112). In the explanation of Fig. 11, the input individual prediction information 117 is referred to as individual prediction information A, the input preventive action information 1175 is referred to as preventive action information P, and the input recovery action information 1176 is referred to as recovery action information R.

[0152] The prediction calculation executing unit 111 initializes the cost information 1178 of the individual prediction information A to 0 (S1113).

[0153] The prediction calculation execution unit 111 starts the process indicated in the prediction process information of the individual prediction information A (see FIGS. 5 and 3) using the action name of the preventive action information P and the action name of the recovery action information R as input parameters (S1114).

[0154] The prediction calculation executing unit 111 receives the cost C as a result of executing the process indicated in the prediction process information 1177 of the individual prediction information A (S1115).

[0155] The prediction calculation executing unit 111 writes the cost C received in step S1115 into the cost information 1178 of the individual prediction information A (S1116).

[0156] The prediction calculation execution unit 111 outputs the risk value v of the current information 1173 of the individual prediction information A and the cost of the cost information 1178 (S1117). The output risk value v and cost are received as the risk value d and the cost c in S12008 of Fig. 10. Then, the prediction calculation execution unit 111 ends this process (S1118).

[0157] As a result, a risk value and a cost based on the individual prediction information 117 are output.

[0158] <Output section> Next, the output unit 13 will be described in detail.

[0159] 12 is a diagram showing an example of information output by the output unit 13. The information output by the output unit 13 includes maintenance plan information 136, operation plan information 137, and insurance plan information 138.

[0160] The maintenance plan information 136 has, as items, an elapsed period W 1361, an individual forecast information ID 1362, and a measure name 1363.

[0161] The elapsed period W 1361 and the individual prediction information ID 11362 are as described above. The measure name 1363 indicates the name of the preventive measure or the name of the recovery measure.

[0162] For example, the second line of the maintenance plan information 136 indicates that a recovery measure with the measure name "R1" is recommended in the 10th week (W) as a maintenance plan by the individual prediction information ID "Transformer1+ModelB".

[0163] The operation plan information 137 has, as items, an elapsed period W 1371, an individual forecast information ID 1372, and a measure name 1373. These items are as described above.

[0164] For example, the first line of the operational plan information 137 indicates that, as an operational plan, a preventive measure with the measure name "P1" is recommended in the 10th week (W) by the individual prediction information ID "Transformer1+ModelA".

[0165] The insurance plan information 138 has, as items, an individual prediction information ID 1381, a risk value total 1382, and an insurance necessity flag 1383.

[0166] The individual prediction information ID 1381 is as described above.

[0167] The risk value total 1382 indicates the total of the risk values ​​of the components (eg, transformers) that constitute the managed object (eg, a substation) indicated by the individual prediction information ID 1381 .

[0168] The insurance necessity flag 1383 is a flag indicating whether or not insurance is necessary for the managed object indicated by the individual prediction information ID 1381. For example, "Yes" indicates that insurance is necessary, and "No" indicates that insurance is not necessary.

[0169] FIG. 13 is a flowchart showing an example of the process of the maintenance operation plan output unit 130.

[0170] The maintenance operation plan output unit 130 starts the following process (S13001).

[0171] The maintenance operation plan output unit 130 judges whether or not the processing of all the rows of the schedule information 126 has been completed (S13002).

[0172] If the processing of all rows of the schedule information 126 has been completed (S13002: YES), the maintenance operation plan output unit 130 ends this processing (S13003).

[0173] If an unprocessed row remains in the schedule information 126 (S13002: NO), the maintenance operation plan output unit 130 extracts the first unprocessed row (S13004) from the schedule information 126. In the explanation of FIG.

[0174] The maintenance operation plan output unit 130 determines whether the preventive action parameter P1263 of row L is 1 or not (S13005).

[0175] If the preventive action parameter P1263 of row L is not 1 (S13005: NO), the maintenance operation plan output unit 130 advances the process to S13009, which will be described later.

[0176] If the preventive action parameter P1263 of row L is 1 (S13005: YES), the maintenance operation plan output unit 130 searches for risk structure information 125 that matches the risk structure information ID 1262 of row L, and sets it as risk structure information E (S13006).

[0177] The maintenance operation plan output unit 130 identifies the preventive action information 1175 of the individual prediction information 117 indicated by the subordinate list 1252 of the risk structure information E and the preventive action execution information 1255 (S13007).

[0178] When the attribute of the preventive action information 1175 is “maintenance”, the maintenance operation plan output unit 130 adds, to the maintenance plan information 136, the elapsed period W1261 of row L, the individual prediction information ID 1171 of the individual prediction information 117 identified in the previous step, and the measure name indicated by the preventive action information 1175. When the attribute of the preventive action information 1175 is “operation”, the maintenance operation plan output unit 130 adds, to the operation plan information 137, the elapsed period W1261 of row L, the individual prediction information ID 1171 of the individual prediction information 117 identified in the previous step, and the measure name indicated by the preventive action information 1175 (S13008).

[0179] The maintenance operation plan output unit 130 determines whether the recovery action parameter R1264 of row L is 1 or not (S13009).

[0180] If the recovery measure parameter R1264 of row L is not 1 (S13009: NO), the maintenance operation plan output unit 130 advances the process to step S13011, which will be described later.

[0181] If the recovery action parameter R1264 of row L is 1 (S13009: YES), the maintenance operation plan output unit 130 performs the same processing as S13006 to S13008 on the recovery action information 1176, and adds information about the recovery action information 1176 to the maintenance plan information 136 and the operation plan information 137 (S13010).

[0182] The maintenance operation plan output unit 130 selects a row having an individual prediction information ID 1381 that matches the risk structure information ID 1262 of row L from the insurance plan information 138, and adds the risk value 1266 of row L to the risk value total 1382 of that row (S13011). Then, the maintenance operation plan output unit 130 returns the process to S13002.

[0183] This generates the maintenance plan information 136 and the operation plan information 137. In addition, a risk value total 1382 for the individual prediction information ID 1381 of the insurance plan information 138 is generated.

[0184] FIG. 14 is a flowchart showing an example of the process of the insurance plan output unit 131.

[0185] The insurance plan output unit 131 starts the next process (S13101).

[0186] The insurance plan output unit 131 determines whether or not the processing has been completed for all rows of the insurance plan information 138 (S13102).

[0187] If the processing of all rows of the insurance plan information 138 has been completed (S13102: YES), the insurance plan output unit 131 ends this processing (S13103).

[0188] If an unprocessed row remains in the insurance plan information 138 (S13102: NO), the insurance plan output unit 131 extracts the first unprocessed row from the insurance plan information 138. (S13104) In the description of FIG.

[0189] If the risk value total 1382 of row L is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold, the insurance plan output unit 131 sets the insurance necessity flag 1383 of row L to Yes, and if the risk value total 1382 of row L is less than the predetermined threshold, sets the insurance necessity flag 1383 of row L to No (S13105). Then, the insurance plan output unit 131 returns the process to S13102.

[0190] As a result, the insurance necessity flag 1383 of the insurance plan information 138 is set.

[0191] The above-described embodiments of the present invention are merely illustrative examples of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention to these embodiments. Those skilled in the art can implement the present invention in various other forms without departing from the scope of the present invention. [Explanation of symbols]

[0192] 1...Optimization system, 2...Disk, 3...Network, 4...Display device, 11...Risk prediction unit, 12...Integration unit, 13...Output unit, 15...Processor, 16...I / O device, 17...Memory, 110...Prediction calculation initialization unit, 111...Prediction calculation execution unit, 115...Risk model template information, 116...Equipment information, 117...Individual prediction information, 120...Integration calculation execution unit, 121...Optimization calculation execution unit, 125...Risk structure information, 126...Schedule information, 130...maintenance operation plan output section, 131...insurance plan output section, 136...maintenance plan information, 137...operation plan information, 138...insurance plan information, 1151...risk model ID, 1152...performance information, 1153...current information, 1154...prediction function, 1155...preventive action information, 1155...prediction processing information, 1156...recovery action information, 1157...prediction processing information, 1161...equipment ID, 1162...risk model ID, 1163...initial information, 1164... performance information, 1165... threshold information, 1171... ID, 1172... performance information, 1173... current information, 1174... prediction function, 1175... preventive action information, 1176... recovery action information, 1177... prediction processing information, 1178... cost information, 1179... threshold information, 1251... ID, 1252... subordinate list, 1253... current information, 1254... aggregation function, 1255... preventive action execution information, 1256... recovery action execution information, 1257... cost Information, 1258...Threshold information, 1261...Elapsed period, 1262...Risk structure information ID, 1263...Preventive action parameters, 1264...Recovery action parameters, 1265...Cost, 1266...Risk value, 1361...Elapsed period, 1362...Individual prediction information ID, 1363...Measure name, 1371...Elapsed period, 1372...Individual prediction information ID, 1373...Measure name, 1381...Individual prediction information ID, 1382...Total risk value, 1383...Insurance necessity flag

Claims

1. A risk management system that supports risk management of a managed object including a plurality of components, Countermeasure information indicating a relationship between each of a plurality of risk types and a countermeasure for the risk type; a risk model template including a function for predicting a risk value at a future elapsed time corresponding to each of the plurality of risk types, and predicting a risk value at each future point in time, wherein a risk prediction unit selects a risk model template corresponding to a risk type for each of the components from among the plurality of risk model templates, provides the selected risk model template with performance information regarding the elapsed time and risk value for the component to generate individual prediction information, and predicts the risk value of each of the components at each future point in time based on the individual prediction information; an integration unit which is provided with risk structure information that defines countermeasures for the managed objects based on a structural relationship between the managed objects and the components, which compares the risk values ​​of the components predicted by the risk prediction unit with a threshold value at each time point, and which applies countermeasures to the components whose risk values ​​exceed the threshold value in order to keep the risk value below the threshold value, and which determines the timing of application of the countermeasures; A risk management system with

2. The countermeasure information is Preventive action information indicating a relationship between the risk type, a preventive action for preventing the occurrence of the risk of the risk type, and a cost required for the preventive action; and recovery action information indicating a relationship between the risk type, a recovery action for recovering the managed object to its original state when a risk of the risk type occurs, and a cost required for the recovery action. The risk management system of claim 1.

3. The preventive measures include maintenance inspection of the component or maintenance replacement of the component. The risk management system according to claim 2.

4. The preventative measures include adjusting the transmission path or adjusting the load on the component. The risk management system according to claim 2.

5. The remedial action includes repairing the component and replacing the component. The risk management system according to claim 2.

6. The risk types include one or more of an equipment deterioration risk indicating a risk due to deterioration of the condition of an equipment included in the management target, a natural disaster risk indicating a risk due to an impact of a natural disaster on the management target, and a cyber attack risk indicating a risk due to a cyber attack on the management target. The risk management system of claim 1.

7. The integration unit records information indicating an implementation time when the countermeasure should be applied to each of the components as schedule information. The risk management system of claim 1.

8. and an output unit that outputs the implementation time at which the countermeasure determined by the integration unit should be applied and the preventive measure or the recovery measure to be taken at the implementation time in association with each other. The risk management system according to claim 2.

9. An output unit that calculates a risk value for the management target using the individual prediction information and outputs information indicating whether or not insurance should be applied based on the risk value. The risk management system of claim 1.

10. A risk management method for supporting risk management of a managed object including a plurality of components by a risk management system, comprising: a plurality of risk model templates including a function for predicting a risk value at a future elapsed time corresponding to each of the plurality of risk types, and defining a process for predicting a risk value at each future time point and determining a countermeasure, wherein a risk model template corresponding to a risk type for each of the components is selected from the plurality of risk model templates, actual information on the elapsed time and risk value for the component is given to the selected risk model template to obtain individual prediction information, a risk value for each of the components at each future time point is predicted based on the individual prediction information, and a countermeasure corresponding to the risk type is extracted based on the countermeasure information in accordance with the individual prediction information, providing risk structure information that defines countermeasures for the managed objects and thresholds for applying the countermeasures based on a structural relationship between the managed objects and the components, comparing the predicted risk values ​​of the components with the thresholds for each time point, and determining the timing for applying the countermeasures by applying countermeasures to the components whose risk values ​​exceed the thresholds in order to keep the risk values ​​below the thresholds; This is a computer-implemented risk management method.

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