Electrical component degradation estimation device, electrical component degradation estimation system including the same, electrical component degradation estimation method, and electrical component degradation estimation program

Abstract

To provide an electric component deterioration estimation device capable of estimating a medium-and-long term failure time of a component included in an electric facility, an electric component deterioration estimation system including the same, an electric component deterioration estimation method, and an electric component deterioration estimation program.SOLUTION: An electric component deterioration estimation device 20 for estimating a failure time of an electric component included in an electric facility comprises an inspection result information acquisition unit 21, a weather information acquisition unit 22, and a failure time estimation unit 27. The inspection result information acquisition unit 21 acquires inspection result information including inspection results of an electric component. The weather information acquisition unit 22 acquires weather information of an area in which an electric facility is installed. The failure time estimation unit 27 estimates a failure time of the electric component per prescribed deterioration scenario serving as a factor for deteriorating the electric component using the inspection result information and the weather information.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an electrical component degradation estimation device that estimates the time of failure of components included in electrical equipment, an electrical component degradation estimation system including the same, an electrical component degradation estimation method, and an electrical component degradation estimation program. [Background technology]

[0002] In recent years, cubicle-type high-voltage power receiving equipment (hereinafter referred to as "cubicle") equipped with various components required for power transformation and instruments to measure and display their status has been installed in various facilities as one of the private electrical facilities. Because cubicles have the function of transforming the electricity received at high voltage to low voltage and supplying electricity to the load equipment within the facility, they require high safety and availability, and monthly regular inspections are mandatory.

[0003] For example, Patent Document 1 discloses a cubicle management system that can also manage information related to salt damage to cubicles on a cloud server on a network that stores cubicle power data. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2019-032761 [Patent Document 2] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2019-040310 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] However, the above-described conventional electrical component deterioration estimation device has the following problems. In other words, while the electrical component deterioration estimation device disclosed in the above publication can determine the level of salt damage by managing information related to salt damage, it is difficult to accurately estimate the time of failure in the medium to long term for each component of electrical equipment that will lead to failure due to a combination or accumulation of various other factors such as temperature and load state.

[0006] The object of the present invention is to provide an electrical component degradation estimation device capable of estimating the medium- to long-term failure timing of components included in electrical equipment, an electrical component degradation estimation system equipped with the same, an electrical component degradation estimation method, and an electrical component degradation estimation program. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] The electrical component degradation estimation device according to a first aspect of the present invention is an electrical component degradation estimation device that estimates the failure time of an electrical component included in electrical equipment, and includes an inspection result information acquisition unit, a weather information acquisition unit, and a failure time estimation unit. The inspection result information acquisition unit acquires inspection result information including inspection results of the electrical component. The weather information acquisition unit acquires weather information for the area in which the electrical equipment is installed. The failure time estimation unit uses the inspection result information and the weather information to estimate the failure time of the electrical component for each predetermined deterioration scenario that is a factor in deteriorating the electrical component.

[0008] Here, the electrical components for which the failure time is estimated are, for example, switches, transformers, etc., and the failure time varies depending on various factors. The inspection result information can be acquired from, for example, an inspection result database that stores the inspection results of electrical equipment carried out by an inspection company or the like. The weather information can be acquired, for example, from a weather information database that stores weather information for the area where the electrical equipment is installed.

[0009] The specified deterioration scenarios are factors that affect deterioration and are set for each electrical component, and include, for example, a high-voltage current scenario, equipment temperature scenario, maximum temperature scenario, solar radiation impact scenario, salt damage scenario, lightning damage scenario, insulation resistance scenario, outdoor humidity scenario, and humidity scenario. This makes it possible to estimate the mid- to long-term failure timing of electrical components included in electrical equipment for each deterioration scenario set for each electrical component, based on inspection result information and weather information. As a result, it is possible to estimate the mid- to long-term failure time of components included in electrical equipment.

[0010] The electrical component deterioration estimation device according to the second invention is the electrical component deterioration estimation device according to the first invention, wherein the failure time estimation unit has a decision tree for each deterioration scenario and estimates the failure time of the electrical component in multiple stages. This makes it possible to estimate the failure time of each electrical component in the medium to long term, for example, using a decision tree that classifies the time until failure into 5 years or more, 4 to 5 years, 3 to 4 years, 2 to 3 years, 1 to 2 years, and less than 1 year.

[0011] The electrical component degradation estimation device according to a third aspect of the present invention is the electrical component degradation estimation device according to the first or second aspect of the present invention, further comprising an environmental data acquisition unit that acquires environmental data including temperature and humidity at a location where the electrical component is installed. The failure time estimation unit estimates the failure time of the electrical component using the inspection result information, meteorological information, and environmental data. This allows for more accurate estimation of when an electrical component will fail by taking into account not only the inspection results and meteorological information, but also environmental data including the temperature and humidity at the location where the electrical component is installed.

[0012] An electrical component degradation estimation device according to a fourth aspect of the present invention is the electrical component degradation estimation device according to any one of the first to third aspects of the present invention, further comprising an insulation monitoring information acquisition unit that acquires measurement results of the insulation state of the electrical component. The failure time estimation unit estimates the failure time of the electrical component using the inspection result information, meteorological information, and the measurement results of the insulation state. This allows, for example, if the electrical component is a switch, the time of failure can be estimated by taking into account the measurement results of its insulation state, and if the insulation state deteriorates and the leakage current is large, it can be estimated that the time of failure is approaching.

[0013] The electrical component degradation estimation device according to a fifth aspect of the present invention is the electrical component degradation estimation device according to any one of the first to fourth aspects of the present invention, further comprising a characteristic data acquisition unit that acquires characteristic information for each electrical component. The failure time estimation unit estimates the failure time of the electrical component using the inspection result information, meteorological information, and the characteristic information. As a result, for example, if an electrical component has a characteristic that makes it resistant to salt damage, the time of failure can be estimated with greater accuracy by taking these characteristics into consideration when estimating the time of failure.

[0014] The electrical component degradation estimation device according to a sixth aspect of the present invention is the electrical component degradation estimation device according to any one of the first to fifth aspects of the present invention, further comprising a geographic information acquisition unit that acquires geographic information about the location of the electrical equipment. The failure time estimation unit estimates the failure time of the electrical component using the inspection result information, meteorological information, and geographic information. This allows for more accurate estimation of when an electrical component will fail, by taking into account geographical information such as whether the area is prone to lightning or close to the sea, and assuming that failures caused by lightning or salt damage are more likely to occur.

[0015] The electrical component deterioration estimation device according to the seventh aspect of the present invention is an electrical component deterioration estimation device according to any one of the first to sixth aspects of the present invention, wherein the deterioration scenario includes at least one of a high voltage current scenario, an equipment temperature scenario, a maximum temperature scenario, a solar radiation impact scenario, a salt damage scenario, a lightning damage scenario, an insulation resistance scenario, an outdoor humidity scenario, and a humidity scenario. This allows the time of failure of an electrical component to be estimated according to each scenario that causes the failure, making it possible to estimate the time of failure according to an appropriate scenario for the electrical component in question.

[0016] An electrical component deterioration estimation device according to an eighth aspect of the present invention is the electrical component deterioration estimation device according to any one of the first to seventh aspects of the present invention, wherein the electrical component is at least one of a switchgear and a transformer. This makes it possible to estimate with high accuracy the time when a switch or transformer will fail.

[0017] The electrical component deterioration estimation system according to the ninth aspect of the present invention comprises an electrical component deterioration estimation device according to any one of the first to eighth aspects of the present invention, an inspection result information database that stores inspection result information, and a weather information database that stores weather information. This provides the effect of being able to estimate the mid- to long-term failure time of components included in the electrical equipment, as described above.

[0018] A tenth aspect of the present invention provides an electrical component degradation estimation method for estimating the failure time of an electrical component included in electrical equipment, and includes an inspection result information acquisition step, a weather information acquisition step, and a failure time estimation step. The inspection result information acquisition step acquires inspection result information including the inspection results of the electrical component. The weather information acquisition step acquires weather information for the area in which the electrical equipment is installed. The failure time estimation step uses the inspection result information and the weather information to estimate the failure time of the electrical component for each predetermined degradation scenario that is a factor in the degradation of the electrical component.

[0019] Here, the electrical components for which the failure time is estimated are, for example, switches, transformers, etc., and the failure time varies depending on various factors. The inspection result information can be acquired from, for example, an inspection result database that stores the inspection results of electrical equipment carried out by an inspection company or the like. The weather information can be acquired, for example, from a weather information database that stores weather information for the area where the electrical equipment is installed.

[0020] The specified deterioration scenarios are factors that affect deterioration and are set for each electrical component, and include, for example, a high-voltage current scenario, equipment temperature scenario, maximum temperature scenario, solar radiation impact scenario, salt damage scenario, lightning damage scenario, insulation resistance scenario, outdoor humidity scenario, and humidity scenario. This makes it possible to estimate the mid- to long-term failure timing of electrical components included in electrical equipment for each deterioration scenario set for each electrical component, based on inspection result information and weather information. As a result, it is possible to estimate the mid- to long-term failure time of components included in electrical equipment.

[0021] An eleventh aspect of the present invention provides an electrical component degradation estimation program for estimating the failure timing of an electrical component included in electrical equipment, and causes a computer to execute an electrical component degradation method including an inspection result information acquisition step, a weather information acquisition step, and a failure timing estimation step. The inspection result information acquisition step acquires inspection result information including the inspection results of the electrical component. The weather information acquisition step acquires weather information for the area where the electrical equipment is installed. The failure timing estimation step uses the inspection result information and the weather information to estimate the failure timing of the electrical component for each predetermined degradation scenario that is a factor in the degradation of the electrical component.

[0022] Here, the electrical components for which the failure time is estimated are, for example, switches, transformers, etc., and the failure time varies depending on various factors. The inspection result information can be acquired from, for example, an inspection result database that stores the inspection results of electrical equipment carried out by an inspection company or the like. The weather information can be acquired, for example, from a weather information database that stores weather information for the area where the electrical equipment is installed.

[0023] The specified deterioration scenarios are factors that affect deterioration and are set for each electrical component, and include, for example, a high-voltage current scenario, equipment temperature scenario, maximum temperature scenario, solar radiation impact scenario, salt damage scenario, lightning damage scenario, insulation resistance scenario, outdoor humidity scenario, and humidity scenario. This makes it possible to estimate the mid- to long-term failure timing of electrical components included in electrical equipment for each deterioration scenario set for each electrical component, based on inspection result information and weather information. As a result, it is possible to estimate the mid- to long-term failure time of components included in electrical equipment. [Effects of the Invention]

[0024] The electrical component deterioration estimation device according to the present invention can estimate the mid- to long-term failure timing of components included in electrical equipment. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0025] [Figure 1] 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of an electric component deterioration estimation system including an electric component deterioration estimation device according to an embodiment of the present invention; [Figure 2] 2 is a diagram showing specific examples of facility information, inspection information, environmental sensor information, insulation monitoring information, meteorological information, and geographic information acquired by the electrical component deterioration estimation device of FIG. 1. [Figure 3] FIG. 2 is a control block diagram showing the configuration of the electrical component deterioration estimation device shown in FIG. 1. [Figure 4] FIG. 1 is a diagram explaining the mechanism of deterioration progression of an electrical component (switchgear). [Figure 5] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing the relationship between degradation scenarios that cause degradation of electrical components and factors (explanatory variables) that cause failures. [Figure 6] FIG. 10 is a diagram for explaining a process of classifying the failure time of an electrical component estimated using a decision tree of a deterioration scenario based on insulation resistance values. [Figure 7] FIG. 6 shows the estimated failure times of electrical equipment installed at each business establishment classified by the decision tree shown in FIG. 5. [Figure 8] 3 is a diagram showing an example of an output screen of information about the surrounding environment of a building in which electrical equipment is installed, output by the electrical component deterioration estimation device of FIG. 2; [Figure 9] 9 is a graph showing an example of an output screen relating to monthly precipitation amounts included in the surrounding environment of FIG. 8. [Figure 10] 9 is a graph showing an example of an output screen relating to the maximum monthly temperature in the surrounding environment of FIG. 8. [Figure 11] 9 is a graph showing an example of an output screen relating to the maximum monthly wind speed in the surrounding environment of FIG. 8. [Figure 12] 3 is a diagram showing an example of an output screen of equipment information of electrical equipment output by the electrical component deterioration estimation device of FIG. 2. FIG. [Figure 13] 13 is a graph showing an example of an output screen relating to insulation resistance included in the facility information of FIG. 12. [Figure 14] 13 is a graph showing an example of an output screen relating to the cumulative number of lightning strikes included in the facility information of FIG. 12. [Figure 15] 13 is a graph showing an example of an output screen relating to the influence of sunlight included in the facility information of FIG. 12. [Figure 16] 3 is a flowchart showing the flow of processing in an electric component deterioration estimation method performed by the electric component deterioration estimation device of FIG. 2; DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0026] An electric component deterioration estimation device 20 according to one embodiment of the present invention and an electric component deterioration estimation system 10 including the same will be described below with reference to FIGS. 1 to 16. FIG. In the present embodiment, more detailed explanation than necessary may be omitted. For example, detailed explanation of well-known matters or redundant explanation of substantially the same configuration may be omitted. This is to avoid unnecessary redundancy in the following explanation and to facilitate understanding by those skilled in the art. Furthermore, the applicant provides the accompanying drawings and the following description to enable those skilled in the art to fully understand the present invention, and they are not intended to limit the subject matter described in the claims.

[0027] (1) Configuration of the electrical component deterioration estimation system 10 An electric component deterioration estimation system 10 according to this embodiment estimates the time of failure of electric components that have a relatively high failure frequency, such as switches and transformers included in high-voltage electric equipment. As shown in Fig. 1 , the electric component deterioration estimation system 10 includes an inspection data input system 11, an equipment information database (DB) 12, an inspection information DB 13, an environmental sensor information DB 14, a remote monitoring system 15, an insulation monitoring information DB 16, a Japan Meteorological Agency site 17, a weather information DB 18, a geographic information DB 19, and an electric component deterioration estimation device 20.

[0028] For example, about once every two months, an inspector who inspects the electrical equipment inputs the inspection results for each piece of electrical equipment via a mobile terminal such as a smartphone into the inspection data input system 11. The inspection results input into the inspection data input system 11 are stored in an inspection information DB 13 provided in a cloud space, for example. The equipment information DB12 stores information for each piece of electrical equipment, such as indoor / outdoor, equipment name, manufacturer model, manufacturer name, manufacturing year, installation date, product number, ratings and specifications, salt damage resistant equipment, presence or absence of lightning arrester, etc., as shown in Figure 2.

[0029] The inspection information DB 13 stores the inspection results of each electrical equipment input to the inspection data input system 11, such as the three-phase receiving voltage, three-phase receiving current, equipment capacity, demand determination value, power factor, generator capacity, transformer use, transformer capacity, transformer rated current, transformer voltage depth, transformer current depth, transformer temperature, transformer leakage current, equipment appearance condition, insulation resistance value, etc., as shown in Figure 2. The environmental sensor information DB14 stores environmental data acquired by environmental sensors installed at the locations where each piece of electrical equipment is installed, such as temperature, humidity, illuminance, air pressure, noise, acceleration, VOCs, etc., as shown in FIG. 2.

[0030] The remote monitoring system 15 is a system that measures the insulation state of, for example, a switchgear included in electrical equipment in real time and remotely monitors any changes in the insulation state. For example, the system transmits measurement data of insulation resistance measured every hour of each day to the insulation monitoring information DB 16. The insulation monitoring information DB 16 stores, as measurement data of insulation resistance acquired by the remote monitoring system 15, for example, maximum load voltage, maximum load current, leakage current, etc., as shown in FIG.

[0031] The Japan Meteorological Agency site 17 provides weather information for each location where electrical equipment is installed. The weather information DB 18 stores weather information for each location where each piece of electrical equipment is installed, obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency site 17, such as maximum temperature, humidity, wind speed, rainfall, and number of lightning strikes, as shown in Figure 2. The geographic information DB 19 stores geographic information indicating, for example, the distance from the sea as shown in FIG. 2, as a geographic feature specific to the location where each piece of electrical equipment is installed.

[0032] 1, electrical component deterioration estimation device 20 is connected to equipment information DB 12, inspection information DB 13, environmental sensor information DB 14, insulation monitoring information DB 16, weather information DB 18, and geographic information DB 19, and extracts necessary data from each DB to estimate the failure time (replacement time) for each electrical component included in the electrical equipment. Electrical component deterioration estimation device 20 then notifies maintenance personnel or the like of the estimated failure time via, for example, a web screen or the like. The detailed configuration of the electrical component deterioration estimation device 20 will be described later.

[0033] (2) Electrical component deterioration estimation device 20 As shown in FIG. 3, the electrical component deterioration estimation device 20 of this embodiment includes an inspection result information acquisition unit 21, a meteorological information acquisition unit 22, an environmental data acquisition unit 23, an insulation monitoring information acquisition unit 24, a feature data acquisition unit 25, a geographic information acquisition unit 26, and a failure time estimation unit 27.

[0034] The inspection result information acquisition unit 21, the weather information acquisition unit 22, the environmental data acquisition unit 23, the insulation monitoring information acquisition unit 24, the feature data acquisition unit 25, the geographic information acquisition unit 26 and the failure time estimation unit 27 are functional blocks generated by the CPU provided in the electrical component deterioration estimation device 20 reading a program stored in a memory or the like. The inspection result information acquisition unit 21 acquires data indicating the inspection results for each piece of electrical equipment from the inspection information DB 13.

[0035] The weather information acquisition unit 22 acquires, from the weather information DB 18, weather information data for the installation location of each piece of electrical equipment. The environmental data acquisition unit 23 acquires environmental data for each piece of electrical equipment from the environmental sensor information DB 14. The insulation monitoring information acquisition unit 24 acquires measurement data of insulation monitoring information (for example, leakage current, etc.) for each piece of electrical equipment from the insulation monitoring information DB 16.

[0036] The characteristic data acquisition unit 25 acquires, from the equipment information DB 12, characteristics of each piece of electrical equipment, such as information on whether the electrical components have been treated with salt damage prevention measures. The geographic information acquisition unit 26 acquires, from the geographic information DB 19, geographic information (near the sea, frequent lightning strikes) on the installation location of each piece of electrical equipment. The failure time estimation unit 27 estimates the failure time of each electrical component based on the information acquired from each of the above DBs, using an electrical component deterioration estimation method described below.

[0037] <Estimation of Failure Time by Electrical Component Deterioration Estimation Device 20> Here, the process of estimating the time of failure for each electrical component by the electrical component deterioration estimation device 20 of this embodiment will be described. For example, if the electrical component whose failure time is to be estimated is a high-voltage air switch, it will fail according to a well-known degradation progression mechanism as shown in FIG.

[0038] That is, in the case of a high-pressure air switch (PAS (Pole mounted Air Insulated Switch)), for example, moisture, oxygen and salt can cause rust, pointer sticking and other problems, resulting in a malfunction (resulting in) poor switching operation. Furthermore, moisture, oxygen and salt can cause rusting, increased contact resistance, heat generation and welding of the contact blades in high-voltage air switchgears, resulting in failure (resulting in) poor switching operation.

[0039] For example, contamination (salt, etc.) in high-voltage air switchgear can cause local arcing, thermal breakdown, and a decrease in dielectric strength, resulting in a failure known as dielectric breakdown. In high-voltage air switchgear, ultraviolet rays, moisture, ozone, and heat can cause a decrease in rubber elasticity, poor airtightness, water ingress, and a decrease in insulation, which can lead to a failure (resulting in) known as insulation breakdown. Cold and heat causes differences in thermal expansion of various parts of high-voltage air switchgear, which then progresses to cracks and a decrease in dielectric strength, resulting in a failure known as insulation breakdown.

[0040] High-voltage air switchgears are subject to ultraviolet rays, moisture, ozone, and heat, which can cause a decrease in rubber elasticity, poor airtightness, water ingress, and rust in the drive section, resulting in failure (resulting in) in poor opening and closing operation. Furthermore, high-voltage air switchgears can be damaged by strong winds, which can cause connections to loosen, generate heat, and melt, resulting in a broken wire.

[0041] As described above, a high-voltage air switchgear progresses to failure due to a specific cause and in accordance with a specific deterioration scenario. Next, the deterioration scenarios of each electrical component and the factors (explanatory variables) that result from the corresponding failures will be explained using FIG. Figure 5 shows the degree of damage and risk accumulated in electrical components quantified using explanatory variables for each degradation scenario extracted based on the degradation progression mechanism shown in Figure 4.

[0042] Specifically, deterioration due to a decrease in insulation resistance is expressed using the difference in insulation resistance value (the amount of change from the time of installation) as an explanatory variable. Deterioration due to temperature abnormalities (high voltage current) is expressed as an explanatory variable, such as the cumulative total of high voltage current (20A or more). Deterioration due to temperature anomalies (sunshine hours) is expressed as an explanatory variable, such as the cumulative index of sunshine hours for one month.

[0043] Deterioration due to temperature anomalies (maximum temperatures) is expressed as an explanatory variable, such as the cumulative maximum temperature (above 33°C). Deterioration due to temperature abnormalities (equipment temperature) is expressed using the cumulative total of equipment temperature indexes as explanatory variables. Deterioration due to lightning damage is 1km 2 The cumulative number of lightning strikes is expressed as an explanatory variable.

[0044] Deterioration due to salt damage is expressed as an explanatory variable, such as whether the location of the electrical equipment is in a salt damage area or whether the electrical components are salt damage resistant equipment. Next, the process of estimating the failure time of an electric component by the failure time estimating unit 27 of the electric component deterioration estimating device 20 will be described with reference to FIG. The failure time estimation unit 27 selects data (explanatory variables) (see FIG. 2) necessary for estimating the failure time for each electrical component, and constructs a failure time estimation model. More specifically, as shown in FIG. 6, the failure time estimation unit 27 performs processing to classify the estimated failure times of electrical components using a decision tree of deterioration scenarios based on insulation resistance values ​​shown in the top row of FIG.

[0045] The decision tree shown in FIG. 6 is subdivided from left to right according to the value of an explanatory variable (for example, a difference in insulation resistance value), and shows a tree structure in which the right end is the final classification result. For example, when the insulation resistance value difference (MΩ) is in the range of (−infinity to −806.403), the failure time estimation unit 27 determines that the failure is in the less than one year class. Here, the probability of each class is less than one year=1.000 (100%), that is, only less than one year is included, so the failure time estimation unit 27 selects the class=less than one year.

[0046] For example, if the insulation resistance value is smaller than that at the time of the previous inspection, the difference in the insulation resistance value will be a negative value. The number (weight) is the number of learning data, and Info is an index representing the complexity of the division (0 for one division). Furthermore, when the difference (MΩ) in the insulation resistance value is in the range of (−707.513 to −686.835), the failure time estimation unit 27 determines that the failure is in the one to less than two year class.

[0047] In this case, the probability of each class is 0.442 (44.2%) for 2 years to less than 3 years, and 0.558 (55.8%) for 1 year to less than 2 years. Therefore, the failure time estimation unit 27 selects the class with the highest probability, 1 year to less than 2 years. Similarly, the failure time estimation unit 27 classifies the failure times of electrical components into six categories: (1) 5 years or more, (2) 4 to less than 5 years, (3) 3 to less than 4 years, (4) 2 to less than 3 years, (5) 1 to less than 2 years, and (6) less than 1 year, according to the decision tree shown in FIG. 6, to obtain an estimation result of the failure time of the electrical components.

[0048] Next, as shown in FIG. 7, the failure time estimation unit 27 creates a table showing the estimation results of six failure times classified according to the decision tree shown in FIG. 6 for the switches and transformers installed at each of the multiple business locations (business locations A to S), and displays the table on a display device or the like. In the example of the estimation results shown in Fig. 7, for example, different colors are used depending on the estimation result of the failure time. Note that in the table shown in Fig. 7, the columns show the prediction results for each deterioration scenario, and the overall evaluation shows the worst result among the scenarios.

[0049] For example, at Business Site A, the deterioration scenario caused by temperature (equipment temperature) predicts that electrical parts will fail in less than one year. Also, at Business Site A, the deterioration scenario caused by temperature (sunlight effects) predicts that electrical parts will fail in three to four years. Similarly, at Business Site B, the deterioration scenarios caused by temperature (equipment temperature) and temperature (maximum air temperature) estimate that the failure time of electrical parts will be less than one year. Also, at Business Site B, the deterioration scenario caused by temperature (influence of sunlight) estimates that the failure time of electrical parts will be one to two years.

[0050] Furthermore, at Plant C, the deterioration scenario caused by salt damage estimates that electrical components will fail in less than one year. As described above, the electrical component deterioration estimation device 20 outputs the estimation results indicating which facility, which equipment, and for what reason are nearing failure, and shows them to the user (inspection company, electrical equipment manager, etc.), allowing the user to recognize electrical components that are estimated to be nearing failure before they fail.

[0051] In addition to outputting the estimated failure time, the electrical component deterioration estimation device 20 of this embodiment may also output and display information about the environment around the building in which the electrical equipment is installed, as shown in Figure 8. Figure 8 shows a display screen that displays information about the surrounding environment of a building where electrical equipment such as cubicles is installed, including the building name, address, latitude and longitude, distance from the sea, weather, number of lightning strikes, insulation monitoring, etc.

[0052] For example, when the rainfall button is selected and clicked on the display screen shown in Figure 8, a graph showing the change in monthly rainfall from February 2017 to December 2021 for the surrounding environment of the building in which the electrical equipment is installed is displayed, as shown in Figure 9. The monthly precipitation changes shown in Figure 9 show that, although there are variations from year to year, precipitation is heavy during the rainy season and autumn, and light in spring. It also shows that, depending on the year, precipitation can be heavy in December and January, as in the 2020 data.

[0053] As a result, the electrical component deterioration estimation device 20 can estimate the time of failure of an electrical component included in each piece of electrical equipment based on changes in monthly precipitation, thereby making it possible to estimate the time of failure with higher accuracy. Furthermore, when the temperature button is selected and clicked on the display screen shown in Figure 8, a graph showing the changes in monthly maximum temperatures from February 2017 to December 2021 as the surrounding environment of the building in which the electrical equipment is installed is displayed, as shown in Figure 10.

[0054] The changes in monthly maximum temperatures shown in Figure 10 show that, although there are some variations from year to year, maximum temperatures tend to be higher in July and August and lower in January. It also shows that there have been years, such as 2020, when minimum temperatures were higher than average. As a result, the electrical component deterioration estimation device 20 can estimate the time of failure of an electrical component included in each piece of electrical equipment based on changes in the maximum temperature, thereby making it possible to estimate the time of failure with higher accuracy.

[0055] Furthermore, when the wind speed button is selected and clicked on the display screen shown in Figure 8, a graph showing the changes in monthly maximum wind speed from February 2017 to December 2021 as the surrounding environment of the building in which the electrical equipment is installed is displayed, as shown in Figure 11. The changes in monthly maximum wind speeds shown in Figure 11 show that, although there are variations from year to year, maximum wind speeds tend to be stronger in the winter and weaker in the summer. It also shows that the maximum wind speed in 2017 was higher than average in the winter.

[0056] As a result, the electrical component deterioration estimation device 20 can estimate the time of failure of electrical components included in each piece of electrical equipment based on changes in the monthly maximum wind speed, thereby making it possible to estimate the time of failure with higher accuracy. As shown above, as shown in Figures 9 to 11, data on monthly precipitation, maximum monthly temperature, and maximum monthly wind speed may differ from year to year.

[0057] Therefore, the electrical component deterioration estimation device 20 of this embodiment can estimate the time of failure of electrical components contained in each electrical equipment based on the acquired data, thereby making it possible to estimate the time of failure with higher accuracy. Next, the electric component deterioration estimating device 20 may output and display equipment information relating to the electric equipment as shown in FIG. 12, in addition to the environmental information shown in FIGS.

[0058] FIG. 12 shows a display screen that displays equipment information (data equivalent to the explanatory variables described above) including the name of the equipment included in electrical equipment such as a cubicle, estimated service life (estimated failure time), installation location, installation date, product information, equipment classification, inspection items, and data on the main causes of deterioration (corresponding to the deterioration scenario). For example, when insulation resistance is selected and clicked from the inspection items on the display screen shown in FIG. 12, the change in insulation resistance from 8:00 AM on March 18, 2018 to 10:00 AM on February 2, 2020 is displayed as shown in FIG. 13.

[0059] The graph in Figure 13 shows that the insulation resistance value decreased from 2000 (MΩ) to 700 (MΩ) between the measurements taken on March 17, 2019 and February 2, 2020. The electrical component deterioration estimation device 20 of this embodiment estimates the time of failure of electrical components included in each piece of electrical equipment based on such changes in insulation resistance, thereby enabling more accurate estimation of the time of failure.

[0060] Furthermore, when the number of lightning strikes is selected and clicked from the main deterioration cause data on the display screen shown in Figure 12, the accumulated number of lightning strikes for March 18, 2018, March 17, 2019, and February 2, 2020 is displayed, as shown in Figure 14. The graph in Figure 14 shows that the number of lightning strikes was 0 on March 18, 2018, but 7.0 on March 17, 2019, and 7.0 on February 2, 2020.

[0061] As a result, the electrical component deterioration estimation device 20 can estimate the time of failure of electrical components contained in each piece of electrical equipment based on the changes in the number of lightning strikes that vary from year to year, thereby enabling more accurate estimation of the time of failure. Furthermore, when the influence of sunlight is selected and clicked from the main deterioration cause data on the display screen shown in FIG. 12, the influence of sunlight on March 18, 2018, March 17, 2019, and February 2, 2020 is displayed, as shown in FIG. 15.

[0062] The graph in Figure 15 shows that the sunshine impact was approximately 12,400 (hours (H)) on March 18, 2018, approximately 13,750 (hours (H)) on March 17, 2019, and approximately 15,100 (hours (H)) on February 2, 2020. As a result, the electrical component deterioration estimation device 20 can estimate the time of failure of electrical components included in each piece of electrical equipment based on changes in the influence of sunlight that vary from year to year, thereby enabling more accurate estimation of the time of failure.

[0063] <Method for estimating deterioration of electrical components> The electrical component degradation estimation device 20 of this embodiment is configured as described above to implement the electrical component degradation estimation method. The processing flow of the electrical component degradation estimation method performed by the electrical component degradation estimation device 20 will be explained below using the flowchart shown in FIG.

[0064] That is, in step S11, the user selects an electrical facility for which a failure time is to be estimated. Next, in step S12, equipment information, inspection information, environmental sensor information, insulation monitoring information, and weather information related to the electrical equipment selected in step S11 are obtained from the above-mentioned equipment information DB12, inspection information DB13, environmental sensor information DB14, insulation monitoring information DB16, and weather information DB18.

[0065] More specifically, the inspection result information acquisition unit 21 of the electrical component deterioration estimation device 20 acquires inspection information of the electrical equipment that is the target of failure time estimation from the inspection information DB 13. Similarly, the weather information acquisition unit 22 acquires weather information for the area where the electrical equipment that is the target of failure time estimation is installed from the weather information DB 18. The environmental data acquisition unit 23 acquires environmental data around the electrical equipment that is the target of failure time estimation from the environmental sensor information DB 14. The insulation monitoring information acquisition unit 24 acquires information on the insulation state of the electrical equipment that is the target of failure time estimation from the insulation monitoring information DB 16. The characteristic data acquisition unit 25 acquires characteristic equipment information of the electrical equipment that is the target of failure time estimation from the equipment information DB 12. The geographical information acquisition unit 26 acquires geographical information of the location where the electrical equipment that is the target of failure time estimation is installed from the geographical information DB 19.

[0066] Next, in step S13, the failure time estimation unit 27 repeats the processes of steps S14 and S15 for each of the plurality of deterioration scenarios for the electrical equipment that is the target of failure time estimation. As described above, the deterioration scenarios include, for example, deterioration due to reduced insulation resistance, deterioration due to temperature abnormalities (high voltage current), deterioration due to temperature abnormalities (sunshine hours), deterioration due to temperature abnormalities (maximum temperature), deterioration due to temperature abnormalities (equipment temperature), deterioration due to lightning damage, and deterioration due to salt damage.

[0067] Next, in step S14, the failure time estimation unit 27 calculates explanatory variables using each piece of information required for estimating the failure time acquired in step S12. As mentioned above, for example, in a deterioration scenario due to a decrease in insulation resistance, the difference in insulation resistance value (the amount of change from the time of installation) is calculated as the explanatory variable. In a deterioration scenario due to temperature abnormality (high voltage current), the cumulative total of high voltage current (20A or more) is calculated as the explanatory variable. In a deterioration scenario due to temperature abnormality (sunshine hours), the cumulative total of sunshine hours index for one month is calculated as the explanatory variable. In a deterioration scenario due to temperature abnormality (maximum temperature), the cumulative total of maximum temperature (33°C or more) is calculated as the explanatory variable. In a deterioration scenario due to temperature abnormality (equipment temperature), the cumulative total of equipment temperature index is calculated as the explanatory variable. In a deterioration scenario due to lightning damage, the cumulative total of equipment temperature index for one km is calculated as the explanatory variable. 2 In the scenario of deterioration due to salt damage, explanatory variables are calculated such as whether the location of the electrical equipment is in a salt damage area and whether the electrical components are salt damage resistant.

[0068] Next, in step S15, the failure time estimation unit 27 estimates the failure time according to the decision tree shown in FIG. The processes in steps S14 and S15 are then repeatedly performed for each deterioration scenario. Here, the results of the processing in steps S14 and S15 performed for each deterioration scenario are displayed on a display device or the like as the estimated results of failure timing for each deterioration scenario for each business establishment shown in FIG.

[0069] Next, in step S16, the failure timing estimation unit 27 calculates the result of the overall evaluation shown in the rightmost column of the table shown in FIG. 7 based on the estimation result for each deterioration scenario of each business establishment. The result of the overall evaluation may be calculated based on the worst value of each deterioration scenario, or may be calculated by multiplying each deterioration scenario by a weight. Next, in step S17, the failure time estimation unit 27 outputs the estimated results of the failure times of the electrical components included in the electrical equipment, which are shown as a table in FIG. 7, to an output device such as a display device or a printer.

[0070] <Main features> The electrical component degradation estimation device 20 of this embodiment is an electrical component degradation estimation device that estimates the failure timing of electrical components included in electrical equipment, and includes an inspection result information acquisition unit 21, a weather information acquisition unit 22, and a failure timing estimation unit 27. The inspection result information acquisition unit 21 acquires inspection result information including the inspection results of the electrical components. The weather information acquisition unit 22 acquires weather information for the area in which the electrical equipment is installed. The failure timing estimation unit 27 uses the inspection result information and the weather information to estimate the failure timing of the electrical component for each predetermined deterioration scenario that is a factor in causing the degradation of the electrical component. This makes it possible to estimate the mid- to long-term failure timing of electrical components included in electrical equipment for each deterioration scenario set for each electrical component, based on inspection result information and weather information. As a result, it is possible to estimate the mid- to long-term failure time of components included in electrical equipment.

[0071] [Other embodiments] Although one embodiment of the present invention has been described above, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiment, and various modifications are possible without departing from the gist of the invention.

[0072] (A) In the above embodiment, the present invention has been described as an example of an electric component deterioration estimation device and an electric component deterioration estimation method, but the present invention is not limited to this. For example, the present invention may be realized as an electric component deterioration estimation program that causes a computer to execute the above-described electric component deterioration estimation method.

[0073] This electric component degradation estimation program is stored in a memory (storage unit) installed in the electric component degradation estimation device, and a CPU reads the electric component degradation estimation program stored in the memory and causes the hardware to execute each step. More specifically, the CPU reads the electric component degradation estimation program and executes the inspection result information acquisition step, weather information acquisition step, and failure time estimation step described above, thereby achieving the same effects as those described above. The present invention may also be realized as a recording medium storing an electrical component deterioration estimation program.

[0074] (B) In the above embodiment, the estimation results of the deterioration time are categorized into six categories: (1) 5 years or more, (2) 4 to less than 5 years, (3) 3 to less than 4 years, (4) 2 to less than 3 years, (5) 1 to less than 2 years, and (6) less than 1 year. However, the present invention is not limited to this. For example, the estimated results of the deterioration time are not limited to six categories, but may be five categories or less, or may be more finely divided into seven or more categories.

[0075] (C) In the above embodiment, a switch and a transformer are used as examples of electrical components for which the deterioration time is estimated, but the present invention is not limited to this. For example, the electrical components for which the time of deterioration is to be estimated may be other electrical components such as high-voltage cables, disconnecting switches, vacuum circuit breakers, phase-advancing capacitors, high-voltage cutouts, instrument current transformers, protective relays, and series reactors, in addition to those mentioned above.

[0076] (D) In the above embodiment, a decision tree has been used as an example of a classification algorithm used to estimate the deterioration time, but the present invention is not limited to this. For example, the classification algorithm used to estimate the deterioration time may be other algorithms such as a neural network, a support-vector machine (SVM), or a random forest, in addition to a decision tree.

[0077] (E) In the above embodiment, an example has been described in which environmental data including temperature and humidity at the location where an electrical component is installed is acquired in order to estimate the time of failure of the electrical component. However, the present invention is not limited to this.

[0078] For example, in addition to temperature and humidity, other environmental data such as illuminance, atmospheric pressure, noise, acceleration, and VOCs (Volatile Organic Compounds) may be used to estimate the time of failure of an electrical component. [Industrial Applicability]

[0079] The electrical component deterioration estimation device of the present invention has the effect of being able to estimate the medium- to long-term failure timing of components contained in electrical equipment, and therefore can be widely applied to various devices and systems that manage electrical equipment. [Explanation of symbols]

[0080] 10 Electrical component deterioration estimation system 11 Inspection data entry system 12 Equipment information DB 13 Inspection Information DB 14 Environmental sensor information DB 15 Remote Monitoring System 16 Insulation monitoring information DB 17 Japan Meteorological Agency website 18 Weather Information DB 19 Geographic information DB 20 Electrical component deterioration estimation device 21 Inspection result information acquisition unit 22 Weather Information Acquisition Department 23 Environmental Data Acquisition Department 24 Insulation monitoring information acquisition unit 25 Feature data acquisition unit 26 Geographic Information Acquisition Department 27 Failure time estimation section

Claims

1. An electrical component deterioration estimation device that estimates a failure time of an electrical component included in electrical equipment, an inspection result information acquisition unit that acquires inspection result information including inspection results of the electrical components; a weather information acquisition unit that acquires weather information for a location where the electrical equipment is installed from a weather site; a failure timing estimation unit that calculates the explanatory variables as variables having parameters of specific information selected from the inspection result information and information included in the weather information, where the progress of deterioration of the electrical component based on the transition over time of explanatory variables that affect the deterioration of the electrical component is defined as a deterioration scenario, and that calculates the transition over time of the explanatory variables for each deterioration scenario to estimate a failure timing of the electrical component; An electrical component deterioration estimation device comprising:

2. the failure time estimation unit has a decision tree for each of the deterioration scenarios and estimates the failure time of the electrical component in multiple stages. The electrical component deterioration estimation device according to claim 1 .

3. an environmental data acquisition unit that acquires environmental data including temperature and humidity at a location where the electrical component is installed; the failure time estimation unit calculates the explanatory variables as variables having specific information selected from the inspection result information, the weather information, and the information included in the environmental data as parameters; The electrical component deterioration estimation device according to claim 1 or 2.

4. further comprising an insulation monitoring information acquisition unit that acquires measurement results of the insulation state of the electrical component; the failure time estimation unit calculates the explanatory variables as variables having specific information selected from the inspection result information, the weather information, and information included in the measurement results of the insulation state as parameters; The electrical component deterioration estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

5. further comprising a characteristic data acquisition unit that acquires characteristic information for each of the electrical components; the failure time estimation unit calculates the explanatory variables as variables having specific information selected from information included in the inspection result information, the weather information, and the characteristic information as parameters; The electrical component deterioration estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 4.

6. a geographic information acquisition unit that acquires geographic information about a location where the electrical equipment is installed; the failure time estimation unit calculates the explanatory variables as variables having specific information selected from information included in the inspection result information, the weather information, and the geographical information as parameters; The electrical component deterioration estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 5.

7. The deterioration scenarios include a high voltage current scenario, an equipment temperature scenario, a maximum temperature scenario, a solar radiation impact scenario, a salt damage scenario, a lightning damage scenario, an insulation resistance scenario, an outdoor humidity scenario, At least one humidity scenario is included. The electrical component deterioration estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

8. The electrical component is at least one of a switch and a transformer. The electrical component deterioration estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

9. The electrical component deterioration estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 8, an inspection result information database for storing the inspection result information; a weather information database for storing the weather information; An electrical component deterioration estimation system comprising:

10. An electrical component deterioration estimation method for estimating a failure time of an electrical component included in electrical equipment, comprising: an inspection result information acquisition step of acquiring inspection result information including inspection results of the electrical components; a weather information acquisition step of acquiring weather information for a location where the electrical equipment is installed from a Japan Meteorological Agency website; a failure time estimation step of calculating the explanatory variables as parameters, where the progress of deterioration of the electrical component based on the transition over time of explanatory variables that affect the deterioration of the electrical component is defined as a deterioration scenario, and calculating the transition over time of the explanatory variables for each deterioration scenario to estimate the time of failure of the electrical component; The method for estimating deterioration of an electrical component includes:

11. An electrical component deterioration estimation program for estimating a failure time of an electrical component included in electrical equipment, an inspection result information acquisition step of acquiring inspection result information including inspection results of the electrical components; a weather information acquisition step of acquiring weather information for a location where the electrical equipment is installed from a Japan Meteorological Agency website; a failure time estimation step of calculating the explanatory variables as parameters, where the progress of deterioration of the electrical component based on the transition over time of explanatory variables that affect the deterioration of the electrical component is defined as a deterioration scenario, and calculating the transition over time of the explanatory variables for each deterioration scenario to estimate the time of failure of the electrical component; An electric component deterioration estimation program that causes a computer to execute an electric component deterioration estimation method comprising the steps of:

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