M&A synergy analysis support device and program
The M&A synergy analysis support device generates consolidated and post-synergy financial statements to quantify synergy effects, addressing the lack of financial evaluation in conventional systems and enhancing decision-making through accurate financial analysis.
Patent Information
- Application Number
- JP2025168383
- Authority / Receiving Office
- JP · JP
- Patent Type
- Patents
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2025-10-06
- Publication Date
- 2026-01-06
- Estimated Expiration
- 2045-10-06
AI Technical Summary
Conventional M&A synergy analysis systems fail to provide specific financial evaluations, making it difficult to integrate the financial statements of acquiring and selling companies and quantify the sales increase or cost reduction effects after integration, thereby hindering effective decision-making.
An M&A synergy analysis support device and program that generates consolidated financial statements and post-synergy financial statements by applying synergy effect information, including a company information acquisition unit, synergy effect prediction unit, and financial integration unit to predict and reflect synergy effects in financial statements.
Enables the generation of financial statements that reflect synergy effects, supporting decision-making by comparing pre- and post-synergy financial statements, allowing for rational evaluation of integration value and direction.
Smart Images

Figure 0007794520000001_ABST
Abstract
Description
[Technical Field]
[0001] The present invention relates to an M&A synergy analysis support device and program. [Background technology]
[0002] Regarding an M&A synergy analysis support device that supports corporate integration, Patent Document 1 proposes a system that inputs corporate information into a generation AI or a base model and obtains future forecast information based on this information (Patent Document 1). Specifically, the base model learns M&A information (internet articles, patent information, news releases, etc.), and is capable of outputting story information related to alliances and M&A based on the input corporate information and evaluation information. As a result, the technology in Patent Document 1 makes it possible to use the base model to provide forecast information such as "which companies should we collaborate with" and "what future image is expected from M&A" in order to promote inter-corporate alliances. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]
[0003] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2025-113195 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]
[0004] However, with the above-mentioned conventional technology, forecast information merely indicates the relationship between the companies and the possibility of collaboration, and does not include specific financial evaluations. As a result, it is not possible to integrate the financial statements of the acquiring company and the selling company and generate financial statements that quantify the sales increase effect or cost reduction effect after the integration. This makes it difficult to present the quantitative basis necessary for management decisions, and improvement is desired.
[0005] The present invention has been made in consideration of the above circumstances, and its purpose is to provide an M&A synergy analysis support device and program that can generate financial statements that reflect synergy effects and support decision-making regarding corporate integration. [Means for solving the problem]
[0006] As a result of intensive research into solving the above-mentioned problems, the inventors have found that the above-mentioned object can be achieved by generating consolidated financial statements for the integrated company and generating post-synergy financial statements by applying synergy effect information to the consolidated financial statements. As a result, the inventors have completed the present invention. Specifically, the present invention provides the following.
[0007] The present invention provides a company information acquisition unit that acquires information on the acquiring company and the transferring company; a synergy effect prediction unit that predicts synergy effects based on the transferee company information and the transferor company information and generates synergy effect information including sales increase effects and cost reduction effects; a financial integration department that generates consolidated financial statements of the integrated company based on the transferee's financial statements included in the transferee company information and the transferor's financial statements included in the transferor company information, and further generates post-synergy financial statements by applying the synergy effect information to the consolidated financial statements; It is an M&A synergy analysis support device equipped with the following.
[0008] According to the present invention, consolidated financial statements of the integrated company are generated based on the transferee's financial statements contained in the transferee company information and the transferor's financial statements contained in the transferor company information, and post-synergy financial statements are generated by applying synergy effect information to the consolidated financial statements. This makes it easy to consider whether the integrated company will have significant value by comparing the consolidated financial statements of the integrated company that do not take synergy effects into account with the post-synergy financial statements of the integrated company that take synergy effects into account. As a result, the present invention can support decision-making regarding business integration. [Effects of the Invention]
[0009] According to the present invention, financial statements that reflect synergy effects can be generated, and decision-making regarding business integration can be supported. [Brief explanation of the drawings]
[0010] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram showing the flow of information in the M&A synergy analysis support device of this embodiment. [Figure 2] FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram showing the flow of information in the M&A synergy analysis support device of this embodiment. [Figure 3] FIG. 3 is a block diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of the M&A synergy analysis support device according to this embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 4 is a flowchart of the M&A synergy analysis support program of this embodiment. [Figure 5] FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a consolidated income statement according to this embodiment. [Figure 6] FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of a consolidated balance sheet according to this embodiment. [Figure 7A] FIG. 7A is an explanatory diagram showing a part of the evaluation report of this embodiment. [Figure 7B] FIG. 7B is an explanatory diagram showing a part of the evaluation report of this embodiment. [Figure 7C] FIG. 7C is an explanatory diagram showing a part of the evaluation report of this embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION
[0011] Hereinafter, an example of an embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.
[0012] (M&A Synergy Analysis Support Device 1) As shown in Figure 1, the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 includes a company information acquisition unit 111 that acquires acquirer company information and transferor company information, a synergy effect prediction unit 112 that predicts synergy effects based on the acquirer company information and the transferor company information and generates synergy effect information including sales increase effects and cost reduction effects, and a financial integration unit 113 that generates consolidated financial statements of the integrated company based on the acquirer's financial statements included in the acquirer company information and the transferor's financial statements included in the transferor company information, and further generates post-synergy financial statements by applying the synergy effect information to the consolidated financial statements.
[0013] According to the above configuration, consolidated financial statements of the integrated company are generated based on the transferee's financial statements contained in the transferee company information and the transferor's financial statements contained in the transferor company information, and post-synergy financial statements are generated by applying synergy effect information to the consolidated financial statements. This makes it easy to determine whether the integrated company will have significant value by comparing the consolidated financial statements of the integrated company that do not take synergy effects into account with the post-synergy financial statements of the integrated company that do take synergy effects into account. As a result, the present invention can support decision-making regarding business integration.
[0014] Furthermore, the synergy effects predicted by the synergy effect prediction unit 112 may correspond to each integration direction in a group of integration directions including horizontal integration, vertical integration, and new entry. That is, the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 may include: a company information acquisition unit 111 that acquires acquirer company information and transferor company information; a synergy effect prediction unit 112 that predicts synergy effects corresponding to each integration direction in a group of integration directions including horizontal integration, vertical integration, and new entry based on the acquirer company information and the transferor company information, and generates synergy effect information including sales increase effects and cost reduction effects; and a financial integration unit 113 that generates consolidated financial statements of the integrated company based on the acquiree-side financial statements included in the acquirer company information and the transferor-side financial statements included in the transferor company information, and further generates post-synergy-application financial statements by applying the synergy effect information to the consolidated financial statements.
[0015] In this case, the consolidated financial statements of the integrated company are generated based on the transferee's financial statements, which include the transferee's information, and the transferor's financial statements, which include the transferor's information, and post-synergy financial statements, which apply the synergy effect information corresponding to each integration direction in the integration direction group to the consolidated financial statements, are generated. This makes it easy to consider which type of integration direction group, including horizontal integration, vertical integration, and new entrants, will have greater value after the integration, by comparing the consolidated financial statements of the integrated company that do not take synergy effects into account with the post-synergy financial statements of the integrated company that take synergy effects corresponding to each integration direction into account. As a result, it is possible to support decision-making regarding business integration.
[0016] (M&A synergy analysis support device 1: company information acquisition unit 111) The company information acquisition unit 111 has the function of collecting information on the acquiring company and the transferring company in the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 and providing it as basic data for each process of the synergy effect prediction unit 112 and the financial integration unit 113.
[0017] Here, "acquirer information" refers to information about the acquiring company in an M&A transaction, i.e., the company that will take the lead in managing the business after the merger. Specifically, this information includes business information such as the acquirer's industry and business domain, the main products and services offered, target customer demographics, and market share. Financial statement data, such as sales, operating profit, total assets, net assets, and liabilities, for the past several years are also included in the acquirer information. These data are used to forecast financial results and calculate synergies after the merger. Furthermore, human resource information, such as the number of employees, departmental structure, and management structure, is also included in the acquirer information. These data are used to evaluate the compatibility of organizational cultures and management capabilities in the merger. For example, for an acquirer providing home care services in the Tokyo metropolitan area, the acquirer information would include the number of care users, the number of service locations by region, the number of care staff, and revenue structure. In this way, acquirer information is compared with the acquirer in the event of a merger, providing information to predict the potential synergies that can be expected from the combination of the management resources and business characteristics of both parties.
[0018] "Transferor company information" refers to information about a company targeted for acquisition in an M&A transaction and is used to predict the possibility of integration with the acquiree company and synergies. Specifically, the transferor company information includes the transferor company's business structure, such as the industry it belongs to, the products and services it offers, its main customer base, and its sales channels. Financial data, such as sales, operating profit, fixed assets, current assets, and total liabilities over the past several years, are also included. These data are used to prepare post-integration financial statements and estimate return on investment. Furthermore, information on the number of employees, regional business locations, and intellectual property such as technology and patents is also included, and is used to analyze synergies with the acquiree company. For example, for a transferor company providing home nursing services in the Tokyo metropolitan area, the transferor company information would include the number of visits, the distribution of users by region, the number of nurses and staff on staff, and partnerships with local medical institutions. In this way, by comparing the transferor company information with the acquiree company's business strategy and financial base, it can be used to specifically evaluate the profit improvement and cost reduction effects expected after the integration.
[0019] To explain the company information acquisition unit 111 in more detail, the company information acquisition unit 111 has a function of accessing the transferee company information database 121 and the transferor company information database 122 and extracting business data and financial data required for the integration evaluation. This creates standardized input data for reference by the synergy effect prediction unit 112 and the financial integration unit 113. When acquiring data, it is preferable to acquire financial figures such as sales, operating profit, and asset and liability balances for a specified fiscal year, and also collect non-financial factors such as industry classification, business locations by region, and major customer attributes.
[0020] The company information acquisition unit 111 also has the function of acting as a bridge with the large-scale language model, which is a generative AI. Rather than inputting collected information as is, it can assign appropriate attribute tags and metadata depending on the direction of integration (horizontal integration, vertical integration, new entry). This preprocessing enables the large-scale language model to interpret not only financial data but also unstructured business information and market environment in an integrated manner, thereby improving the accuracy of synergy effect predictions. Furthermore, the company information acquisition unit 111 may also have the function of linking with external databases (market statistics databases, regulatory information databases, etc.) as necessary to supplementally acquire market trends and regulatory environments that cannot be fully grasped from a single company's internal data.
[0021] The company information acquisition unit 111 may also include a company data creation function that inputs balance sheets and income statements for private companies or business divisions and generates a database in the same format as public companies. Specifically, the company data creation function inputs financial data (balance sheets, income statements, and additional items) for private companies or business divisions, enabling the database to be created in the same format as public companies. This allows financial analysis to be performed using uniform standards for not only public companies but also private companies and business divisions. The input process involves recording data for each display item in a specified input table, setting the code, name, and industry of the private company, and issuing a save command, thereby generating a database in the exact same format as existing public company data. This design ensures consistency in analysis and improves data management efficiency. Additionally, the company data creation function preferably includes a mechanism for combining historical financial statement data from multiple companies and generating combined financial data based on the pooling of interests method. This allows us to conduct pro forma analysis of M&A transactions, quantitatively estimate future forecasts and merger effects, and evaluate synergy effects and growth potential from the perspective of corporate value.
[0022] (M&A synergy analysis support device 1: synergy effect prediction unit 112) In the M&A synergy analysis support device 1, the synergy effect prediction unit 112 has the function of predicting the synergy effects that will be realized after the integration based on the acquirer company information and the transferor company information, and generating the results as quantitative synergy effect information.
[0023] Specifically, the synergy effect prediction unit 112 estimates the presence and magnitude of synergies based on one of the integration directions (horizontal integration, vertical integration, new entry) by referring to the business characteristics of the transferee and transferor companies, such as their industry classification, customer base, market share, and sales channels. For example, in the case of horizontal integration between two companies in the same industry, it is predicted that sales will increase through improved market penetration due to the integration of sales channels. Furthermore, vertical integration between companies in different industries often produces effects such as reduced raw material procurement costs and a stabilization of supply networks. Furthermore, in the case of new entry, the transferee company may be able to establish a revenue base in a market that was previously difficult to enter by utilizing the patents and brand power held by the transferor company.
[0024] Furthermore, the synergy effect prediction unit 112 can analyze not only financial data but also non-financial factors. For example, by adding the research and development capabilities, personnel composition, and local customer base of the transferring company to the evaluation factors, it is possible to estimate the sustainability of the sales increase effect and the reality of the cost reduction effect. The synergy effect information obtained in this way is provided to the financial integration unit 113 and used in the financial forecast of the integrated company.
[0025] Here, "horizontal integration" refers to the integration of companies in the same or similar industries or business fields. This type of integration is often carried out with the objective of expanding scale and market share, and streamlining sales activities and sales channels. In horizontal integration, the combined company can strengthen its competitiveness in the market by combining the overlapping or complementary product groups and customer bases of both companies.
[0026] A specific example is the merger of a transferee company providing home care services in the Tokyo metropolitan area with a transferor company providing home care services in the Kansai region. Because the two companies are in the same industry, the merger will expand the business area and create a system for providing services nationwide. Furthermore, by sharing the customer bases and staff know-how of each company, the merger is expected to improve customer satisfaction and streamline the acquisition of new customers. Furthermore, there is a high possibility of cost reductions through standardization of purchasing and training. Horizontal integration is characterized by its ability to simultaneously expand market share in the same industry and streamline management resources. In particular, when the businesses and service quality of the two companies are similar, the benefits of the merger often become apparent in a short period of time, potentially significantly increasing the value of the merged company.
[0027] "Vertical integration" refers to the integration of companies at different levels in the supply chain. This integration often aims to unify the value chain from manufacturing to sales, reducing costs and strengthening quality control. Vertical integration allows the integrated companies to reduce middleman margins, build a stable supply system, and improve price competitiveness.
[0028] A specific example is when a company that manufactures nursing care products (the acquiring company) merges with a business that provides home nursing care services (the transferring company). In this case, integrating everything from manufacturing to service provision enables a stable supply of nursing care products, reducing costs while improving the quality of services. In addition, feedback from the service field can be directly reflected in product development, improving the speed of product development that meets customer needs. In this way, vertical integration is an effective means of strengthening the supply chain and improving profitability.
[0029] "New Entry" refers to a form of integration in which the acquiring company enters a different industry or market area than its previous one. This integration is often carried out with the aim of expanding the existing business portfolio or securing new revenue sources. By entering new markets, the combined company can diversify and increase its management stability by reducing its dependence on a specific market.
[0030] A specific example is when a acquiring company that develops IT solutions integrates with a transferring company that provides home nursing services. In this case, by combining different industries, such as IT and healthcare, new added value can be created, such as by introducing electronic medical records and remote medical support systems to home nursing services. Furthermore, by linking the existing IT customer network with the medical and nursing care fields, the possibility of capturing entirely new market opportunities increases. In this way, while new entrants entail risks, it is a strategic integration that can achieve high future growth.
[0031] "Integration Direction Groups" are a classification of the basic directions of integration in M&A, and are a concept that stipulates the nature of synergies and business effects expected after the integration. By setting integration direction groups, managers can clarify the objectives of the target integration and appropriately evaluate synergies such as sales increase effects and cost reduction effects for each direction.
[0032] Integration directions include, but are not limited to, horizontal integration, vertical integration, and new entrants. For example, cross-border integration aimed at international expansion and cross-industry integration aimed at promoting digital transformation can also be included. In cross-border integration, companies from different countries or regions merge, potentially creating new revenue opportunities by leveraging the market characteristics and regulatory environments of each region. In cross-industry integration, companies from previously unrelated fields merge, complementing each other's customer bases and technological assets and providing new value to the market that did not previously exist. Thus, integration directions are not necessarily fixed but are flexibly expandable in response to changes in industrial structure and the social environment. It is desirable to set them according to the strategic objectives of the corporate integration being analyzed.
[0033] "Business integration" refers to a management action that aims to create new corporate value by combining the management resources and business bases of multiple companies and building an integrated management system. Management resources here include not only financial and physical assets, but also intangible assets such as human resources, technology, brand power, and sales networks. Business integration is carried out not only to simply expand the size of the company, but also with the aim of creating synergy effects such as expanding market share, improving cost efficiency, and entering new business areas, and there are various types of integration, such as horizontal integration, vertical integration, and new entrants.
[0034] "Synergy" refers to the additional value generated by integration beyond the simple sum of the companies' scales. "Synergy effects corresponding to each integration direction" are specifically evaluated as effects that differ depending on the type of integration. Examples of synergy effects from horizontal integration include increased market share and reduced manufacturing costs through economies of scale when companies in the same industry integrate. Examples of synergy effects from vertical integration include improved logistics efficiency and reduced middleman margins by integrating the value chain from raw material procurement to sales. Examples of synergy effects from new entrants include access to new markets and customer segments in addition to existing management resources, which increases sales opportunities and diversifies the business portfolio, resulting in risk diversification. Thus, the "correspondence" in synergy effects corresponding to each integration direction does not simply classify the type of integration, but refers to the relationship that links the unique combination of management resources for each integration type with the benefits that arise from that combination. Therefore, the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 reflects these synergy effects in the consolidated financial statements generated by the financial integration department 113, making it possible to compare them with cases where the synergy effects are not taken into account, allowing managers to quantitatively grasp the effects of each integration direction and make rational decisions.
[0035] "Forecasting based on information about the acquiring company and the transferring company" refers to a process that uses the business characteristics and financial status of both companies in an M&A transaction as basic data to estimate the potential synergies that may result from the integration. The information about the acquiring company used here includes the acquiring company's industry classification, major business, customer base, market share, and financial data such as sales, profits, assets, and liabilities. Meanwhile, the information about the transferring company includes business and intellectual property information such as the target business's market area, product lineup, sales channels, employee structure, technical assets, and patent information, as well as profitability and asset structure based on financial statements. By integrating these two pieces of information, it becomes possible to calculate, for example, the potential sales increase based on the degree of market overlap or the cost reduction effect by eliminating overlapping business operations. Therefore, synergy forecasts are not limited to abstract expectations but are calculated as quantitative effects backed by concrete numerical data, supporting decision-making regarding the direction of the integration.
[0036] "Synergy information, including sales increase and cost reduction effects," refers to information that quantitatively indicates the additional economic benefits expected from a business integration, both in terms of revenue and costs. Sales increase effects include increased market share, access to new customer segments, diversified sales channels, and increased brand value, resulting from the integration. For example, when two companies in the same market integrate, sales are expected to increase through the retention of existing customers and penetration into new markets. Meanwhile, cost reduction effects include improved purchasing and logistics efficiency, the consolidation of overlapping administrative departments, reduced fixed costs through optimal allocation of facilities and personnel, and reduced variable costs through economies of scale. This allows the integrated company to achieve efficiencies and profitability not previously achieved, going beyond mere financial statement summaries. Therefore, synergy information, including sales increase and cost reduction effects, clearly quantifies the value created by the integration and provides information for predicting the future of the integrated company.
[0037] The synergy effect prediction unit 112 may be implemented using any of the following processing methods: a rule-based method, a statistical model / machine learning method, or a generative AI (large-scale language model) method. The rule-based method can calculate synergy effects using a predefined formula or weighting logic, such as horizontal integration = emphasis on sales increase effects and vertical integration = emphasis on cost reduction effects. For example, this method manages sales additions and cost reduction scenarios by business segment using input rules. The statistical model / machine learning method predicts sales increase rates and cost reduction rates by performing regression analysis and simulations using past M&A data. The generative AI method can process not only financial data (numerical values) but also qualitative information such as news articles, regulatory information, organizational culture, and customer attributes, allowing for more detailed estimation of "sales increase effects" and "cost reduction effects."
[0038] In this embodiment, a case will be described in which the function of the synergy effect prediction unit 112 is realized by a generation AI method.
[0039] As shown in Figure 2, the synergy effect prediction unit 112 has a generation AI to which the acquiring company information and the transferring company information are input, and is configured to input the acquiring company information and the transferring company information to the generation AI along with a prompt to predict the synergy effect corresponding to each integration direction in the integration direction group, causing the generation AI to generate synergy effect information.
[0040] Generative AI is a large-scale language model. A "large-scale language model" is a type of probabilistic model used in natural language processing, and is a model that probabilistically predicts how likely a given word or sentence is to occur in natural language. Specifically, a language model calculates the occurrence probability of a given word sequence or sentence, or compares the occurrence probabilities of multiple word sequences or sentences. This enables it to automatically generate the most likely word or sentence based on the context when predicting the next word or sentence, or to generate a sentence that meets specific conditions. In other words, a large-scale language model is a language model that probabilistically predicts how likely a word or sentence given in a prompt is to occur in natural language by combining one or more types of natural language processing processes, such as morphological analysis, syntactic analysis, semantic analysis, contextual analysis, and intent analysis.
[0041] "Natural language processing" enables a computer to understand text and audio data written in natural language and execute processing according to the purpose. Specific examples include morphological analysis, which breaks natural language down into "morphemes," the smallest units that make up the language, and assigns information such as parts of speech; syntactic analysis, which analyzes the grammatical structure of natural language to clarify the structure and meaning of a sentence; semantic analysis, which analyzes the meaning of natural language to understand the meaning of words and sentences and make logical judgments and inferences; contextual analysis, which understands natural language while taking into account the context before and after a sentence; and intent analysis, which extracts the intention of a speaker or writer from a dialogue or sentence using natural language. Thus, "natural language processing" processes natural language by combining processes such as morphological analysis, syntactic analysis, semantic analysis, contextual analysis, and intent analysis, enabling machine translation, automatic summarization, question-answering systems, speech recognition, and the like, in addition to the prediction of the synergistic effects of this embodiment.
[0042] A "prompt" is a word or sentence that is input into a large-scale language model. Note that the execution of synergy effect predictions using a large-scale language model based on prompts is a major difference from regular (traditional) machine learning. In regular machine learning, the model learns from training data and predicts output data for input data. For example, a machine learning model for image recognition learns from training data of images of cats and dogs and classifies the input image as either a cat or a dog. On the other hand, when executing synergy effect predictions using a large-scale language model, the model learns from prompts that provide instructions and information about the output data that the model is expected to execute, in addition to the training data.
[0043] To explain in more detail, in conventional machine learning, models can only generate content contained in the training data, whereas large-scale language models can use prompts to generate new content not contained in the training data. In other words, in conventional machine learning, models can only generate variations of content contained in the training data, whereas large-scale language models can use prompts to generate new variations of output data not contained in the training data. Furthermore, in conventional machine learning, models can only generate new content by recursively combining content contained in the training data, whereas large-scale language models can use prompts to generate creative content not contained in the training data. Therefore, prompts can generate problem-solving ideas from completely new perspectives.
[0044] It is preferable that the large-scale language model be specialized for predicting synergy effects. Specifically, the synergy effect prediction unit 112 combines one or more types of natural language processing based on various information related to synergy effects to probabilistically predict how likely words and sentences given in a prompt are to occur in natural language, and learns and adjusts to perform processing for generating information about synergy effects and processing for executing synergy effects through sentence generation and question answering, thereby preferably having a large-scale language model specialized for processing related to synergy effects. As a result, the synergy effect prediction unit 112 can improve generation accuracy, execution accuracy, and efficiency by having a large-scale language model specialized for synergy effects.
[0045] Furthermore, the synergy effect prediction unit 112 may be a generating AI device provided outside the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 via the Internet 5, in which case the necessary processing is executed in the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 from the generating AI device via an API (Application Programming Interface). The generating AI device may be a cloud server or a local server.
[0046] As a result, by using a generation AI in the synergy effect prediction unit 112, it becomes possible to interpret diverse and unstructured corporate information, which was difficult to do with rule-based methods or machine learning models, and to contextually predict different synergy effects for each integration direction. Specifically, by inputting the acquiring company information and the transferring company information directly into the generation AI and using prompts in combination, it is possible to analyze not only financial data but also non-structural information such as industry characteristics and market environment, making it possible to more flexibly and realistically estimate sales increase effects and cost reduction effects. This makes it possible to obtain synergy effect information that accurately reflects the synergy effects corresponding to each option in the integration direction group.
[0047] To explain the synergy effect prediction unit 112 in more detail, the synergy effect generation unit 1122, which is composed of generative AI, receives as input information on the acquiring and transferring companies and metadata indicating the direction of integration (horizontal integration, vertical integration, new entrant), and estimates and generates the sales increase and cost reduction effects that may result from the integration as numerical expressions with explanatory evidence. The synergy effect generation unit 1122 is designed to simultaneously interpret structured data such as financial statements (sales, gross profit, selling and general administrative expenses, capital investment, personnel composition, etc.) and unstructured data such as business reports, news summaries, regulatory trends, customer and channel characteristics, and organizational cultural compatibility. It can automatically optimize weighting and evaluation criteria by switching the evaluation framework for each integration direction within the prompt (horizontal = market expansion and channel integration emphasis, vertical = cost reduction and logistics optimization emphasis, new entrant = portfolio diversification and new demand development emphasis).
[0048] The synergy effect generation unit 1122 is invoked via a pre-processing layer that performs attribute enhancements such as normalizing account items, standardizing by currency and price index, assigning segment labels, and assigning regional and regulatory tags on data received from the company information acquisition unit 111 as input pre-processing, and a control layer that generates prompts including inference instructions, output formats, and safety valves (numerical consistency checks and requests for presentation of evidence) for each integration direction by the prompt generation unit 1121. As a result, the synergy effect generation unit 1122 develops inferences in the order of "evidence → hypothesis → quantification → uncertainty" and can output sales increase effects (e.g., increased cross-selling rate, improved utilization rate due to base integration, tolerance for unit price revisions) and cost reduction effects (e.g., reduced cost rates due to scaled purchasing, integration of overlapping departments, shortened logistics distances) as delta values by fiscal year and segment. The output is provided in three parts: "Synergy details by direction (explanatory text)", "Numeric value table corresponding to P / L items (fiscal year / segment x sales / cost / selling and administrative expenses Δ)", and "Assumptions / sensitivity (achievement time, rise curve, range of achievement probability)", and is in a format that the financial integration department 113 can apply directly to consolidated financial statements.
[0049] To ensure explainability and reproducibility, the synergy effect generation unit 1122 is configured to record prompt version numbers, model version numbers, parameters used, and reference data snapshots in a prompt / model management database. Furthermore, to mitigate hallucinations and ensure numerical consistency, (i) immediately after output, a rule-based checker checks accounting consistency (e.g., the relationship between sales Δ and gross profit Δ and cost Δ, and range constraints for selling and general administrative expenses Δ), (ii) if a threshold deviation is detected, an automatic reprompt instructs assumption revision and rationale scrutiny, and (iii) a feedback loop is provided to add uncertainty indicators (interval estimates, assumption sensitivity labels) to the final output. This allows the synergy effect generation unit 1122 to stably provide consistent output applicable to financial figures while utilizing highly flexible unstructured information.
[0050] As a specific example, when inputting the horizontal integration of home care (acquisition) and home nursing (transfer), the synergy effect generation unit 1122 quantifies the sales increase effect and cost reduction effect by fiscal year while explaining in text the causal chain, such as "increase in care manager locations → increase in referral rate → acquisition of new users," "elimination of overlapping areas → reduction in travel time → increase in utilization rate," and "joint procurement of supplies and equipment → reduction in unit price." Furthermore, by referencing non-financial factors such as regulatory revisions and difficulties in securing personnel, expressing the start-up period as a leveling curve and assigning a range to the probability of achievement, it can be directly connected to the subsequent evaluation unit 114's calculation of investment recommendation level and simulation of return on investment (ROI: Return on Investment, NPV: Net Present Value, payback period). As described above, the synergy effect generation unit 1122 automatically switches between evaluation items and weighting according to the direction of integration, makes inferences across structured and unstructured data, and provides numerical output that has undergone explanation of the reasons and consistency checking, thereby making it possible to realize context-dependent synergy predictions that are difficult to capture using rule-based or statistical models with high operability and reproducibility.
[0051] (M&A Synergy Analysis Support Device 1: Financial Integration Department 113) As shown in Figure 1, the financial integration unit 113 has the function of generating consolidated financial statements of the integrated company based on the transferee financial statements contained in the transferee company information and the transferor financial statements contained in the transferor company information, and further generating post-synergy financial statements by applying synergy effect information to the consolidated financial statements.
[0052] Specifically, we collect key financial data such as sales, operating profit, assets, liabilities, and cash flow included in the financial statements of the transferor and the transferee, adjust for differences in account items and reporting units, and then aggregate the data to generate consolidated financial statements for the combined company. 。
[0053] Furthermore, the financial integration unit 113 has a function to reflect synergy effect information provided by the synergy effect prediction unit 112. Specifically, it generates post-synergy financial statements by adding the sales increase effect to post-integration sales and subtracting the cost reduction effect from expense items such as selling and general administrative expenses and manufacturing costs. As a result, financial statements are obtained that quantitatively reflect the added value newly created by the integration, rather than simply summing up the figures.
[0054] For example, if the transferee company provides nursing care services and the transferor company provides nursing care services, the consolidated financial statements after the integration will show the combined sales and assets of both companies, but the financial statements after applying synergies will reflect the increase in sales due to cross-selling to different user segments and the cost reductions due to the consolidation and elimination of overlapping locations, thereby presenting a more realistic and strategic financial picture.In this way, the Financial Integration Department 113 can accurately combine the financial information before the integration and appropriately reflect the synergy effects, thereby providing managers and investors with useful information for determining the corporate value after the integration.
[0055] Here, "acquirer financial statements" refers to the official accounting documents showing the financial condition of the acquiring company in an M&A transaction. These financial statements, including balance sheets, income statements, and cash flow statements, serve as the foundation for the acquiring company's management foundation and financial soundness. For example, the total assets and net assets listed on the balance sheet indicate the acquiring company's investment capacity and borrowing potential after the merger. Sales and operating profits listed on the income statement serve as benchmarks for assessing the potential for synergies after the merger. Furthermore, the cash flow from operating activities and expenditures associated with investing activities shown on the cash flow statement serve as indicators for assessing the company's cash flow and investment capacity after the merger.
[0056] For example, if the acquiring company operates a nursing care business on a nationwide scale, the acquiring company's financial statements will specifically reflect the cost structure, such as sales based on the number of nursing care service users per year, fixed assets and operating expenses based on the number of operating locations, and even labor costs and advertising expenses. This makes it possible to estimate how the sales of both companies will increase and how much overlapping costs can be reduced when the financial statements of the acquiring company are integrated. Therefore, the "acquirer's financial statements" are not simply documents recording the acquiring company's business performance, but also information for financially predicting the synergy effects that will result from the integration.
[0057] "Transferor's financial statements" refer to the official accounting documents that show the financial condition of the company that is the target of the M&A transaction, i.e., the company being acquired. The transferor's financial statements include balance sheets, income statements, cash flow statements, etc., and provide information on the size of the transferor's assets and liabilities, revenue structure, and cash flow soundness. This information serves as the basis for assessing the profitability improvements and cost reductions that can be expected after the merger with the acquiring company.
[0058] For example, if a transferor company operates a home nursing care business in a specific region, the transferor's financial statements would reflect sales revenue based on the number of visits, labor costs for the nurses on staff, and expenses related to collaboration with local medical institutions. The balance sheet also shows fixed assets such as medical equipment and base facilities, as well as debt and other liabilities. These serve as indicators for determining whether additional investments or burdens are necessary after merging with the transferee company. In this way, the transferor's financial statements not only show the business performance of the transferor company alone, but are also essential materials for quantitatively estimating the new synergies that will arise from merging with the transferee company's financial statements. They also allow for understanding how the transferor company's profitability and debt status will be affected in the consolidated financial statements after the merger.
[0059] The "integrated company" refers to the new corporate entity that is formed as a result of the integration of the transferor and acquirer companies in an M&A transaction. By combining the business resources, financial base, human resources, technological capabilities, and customer base of both companies, this integrated company can form a new management base that would not have been possible as either company alone. The financial statements of the integrated company are prepared by combining or adjusting the financial statements of the transferor and acquirer companies, and reflect the synergistic effects of the integration, such as increased sales and cost reductions.
[0060] For example, if the acquiring company provides nursing care services nationwide and the transferring company provides home nursing care services in a specific area, the integrated company will have a system that can provide both nursing care and medical care services in an integrated manner. As a result, not only will the range of services available to customers be expanded, but costs will be reduced by eliminating duplication in sales and administrative departments, and sales are expected to increase by acquiring new customer segments. Therefore, the "integrated company" will not simply be the sum of the sizes of the acquiring and transferring companies, but will be positioned as an entity that creates new value by applying synergy effects and enhances competitiveness and growth potential.
[0061] "Consolidated financial statements" refer to accounting documents prepared in the event of a corporate merger or group management, treating multiple companies as a single economic entity and presenting their operating results and financial status in a unified manner. When a transferor and a transferee company are integrated through M&A, the assets, liabilities, revenues, and expenses of both companies must be added up or offset to clarify the financial status of the combined company as a whole. This allows for an objective understanding of the actual size and profitability of the combined corporate group.
[0062] For example, if the acquiring company has total assets of 50 billion yen and the transferring company has total assets of 20 billion yen, the consolidated financial statements will show total assets of 70 billion yen after the merger. However, transactions and receivables and payables between the two companies will be offset, reflecting the actual financial position of the entire corporate group. Furthermore, sales and operating profit figures will not be simply added up, but will be actual figures based on external transactions after eliminating intra-group transactions. In this way, "consolidated financial statements" are not simply a collection of individual financial statements, but are comprehensive indicators that accurately represent the economic reality after the corporate merger.
[0063] "Post-synergy financial statements" refer to financial statements after adjustments are made to the consolidated financial statements prepared following a business integration, reflecting the synergistic effects resulting from the integration. Conventional consolidated financial statements represent the economic reality of the integrated company by adding up and offsetting the financial statements of the acquiring and transferring companies, but do not include the newly generated revenue expansion and cost reduction effects resulting from the integration. In contrast, post-synergy financial statements take into account the financial figures of increased sales due to expanded market share through horizontal integration, and cost reduction effects such as improved logistics efficiency and reduced middleman margins through vertical integration.
[0064] For example, even if the consolidated financial statements show that the operating profit of the integrated company is calculated to be 10 billion yen, if the synergy effects are expected to be a 1 billion yen increase in sales due to the integration of sales channels and a 500 million yen cost reduction due to more efficient logistics, then the post-synergy financial statements will reflect this as an operating profit of 11.5 billion yen. In this way, the post-synergy financial statements financially quantify the additional value expected in the future as a result of the integration, and serve as materials that allow managers and investors to concretely evaluate the effects of the integration.
[0065] (M&A synergy analysis support device 1: evaluation unit 114) The M&A synergy analysis support device 1 includes an evaluation unit 114 that calculates the investment recommendation level based on the consolidated financial statements and the post-synergy financial statements. As a result, the investment recommendation level is calculated based on the consolidated financial statements and the post-synergy financial statements, and the transferee 4, who is a manager or the like, can refer to the result as a quantitative index that is directly linked to investment decisions, rather than simply comparing financial figures after the integration.
[0066] Here, the "transferee 4" refers to the person who operates the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 and who plays the role of the acquiring party in a business integration. The transferee 4 accesses functions such as the company information acquisition unit 111, synergy effect prediction unit 112, and financial integration unit 113 via the transferee terminal 2 to input or confirm information about the candidate companies. Specifically, as the transferee company, the transferee provides its own business information and financial statements, and inputs public information about the transferor company and data obtained during the negotiation process, allowing the transferee 4 to make post-integration financial forecasts and evaluate synergy effects based on this information. Furthermore, the transferee 4 is not simply an information inputter; it is a central player in M&A decision-making. The transferee 4 refers to the results of the system, such as the financial statements of the integrated company, the post-synergy financial statements, and the investment recommendation level, and uses these results as a reference for making final management decisions. For example, if Transferee 4, which operates a home care business, is considering merging with a home care provider based in the same area, Transferee 4 can use M&A synergy analysis support device 1 to quantify the sales increase effect and cost reduction effect due to regional synergy and compare the return on investment, thereby making a rational judgment on the appropriateness of the merger.
[0067] "Investment recommendation level" is an index that shows the appropriateness of investment decisions for a project based on the results of a financial evaluation of the integration effects of M&A. In other words, it quantifies the degree of improvement in profitability and efficiency in comparison of financial statements before and after integration and in financial statements after applying synergies, providing a standard for investors and managers to decide whether or not to proceed with the M&A project.
[0068] In addition to direct financial improvements such as increased sales and cost reductions, investment recommendation levels often take into account factors such as the risk diversification effect of the integration, improved capital efficiency, and future growth potential. For example, if the post-integration operating profit margin improves significantly and the return on invested capital (ROIC) exceeds the cost of capital, the investment recommendation level will be calculated as high. On the other hand, if the cultural friction and integration costs associated with the integration are expected to outweigh the synergy benefits, the investment recommendation level will be calculated as low. In this way, the "investment recommendation level" is not simply a numerical indicator; it is an index derived by comprehensively considering the value created by the integration and the potential risks, and is an objective measure to support management and investment decisions.
[0069] It is preferable that the evaluation unit 114 calculates the investment recommendation level in multiple stages. In this case, since the investment recommendation level is calculated in multiple stages, the manager can make a decision according to risk tolerance and strategic objectives based on multiple evaluation stages, rather than simply regarding the value of the integrated company as a uniform numerical evaluation.
[0070] (M&A synergy analysis support device 1: index calculation unit 115) The M&A synergy analysis support device 1 has an index calculation unit 115 that calculates at least one management index of growth potential, profitability, efficiency, and stability based on the generated consolidated financial statements. The index calculation unit 115 has a function of calculating various management indexes for evaluating the soundness and future prospects of corporate management using the consolidated financial statements generated after the integration as basic data. The calculated indexes include growth-related indexes such as sales growth rate and market share expansion rate, profitability-related indexes such as operating profit margin and net profit margin, efficiency-related indexes such as total asset turnover and labor productivity, and stability-related indexes such as equity ratio and current ratio.
[0071] These indicators serve to clarify in which areas the synergies resulting from the integration are actually being realized. For example, if the integration of competitors reduces production costs and increases operating profit margins, this will confirm improved profitability. Similarly, if the integration of value chains improves inventory turnover, this will confirm improved efficiency.
[0072] (M&A Synergy Analysis Support Device 1: Non-Financial Information Acquisition Unit 117) The M&A synergy analysis support device 1 has a non-financial information acquisition unit 117 that acquires non-financial factors such as market trends, regulatory trends, organizational culture compatibility, etc. The non-financial information acquisition unit 117 has a function of collecting and organizing non-financial factors such as the market environment, regulatory environment, organizational culture, and human resource compatibility in order to supplement the success factors of business integration that are difficult to grasp from financial data alone.
[0073] For example, from the perspective of market trends, it is possible to assess the possibility of future sales expansion by understanding the growth rate of the target company's industry, the activities of new entrants, and changes in consumer needs. Regarding regulatory trends, it is possible to identify risks and opportunities for business development after the merger by investigating the existence of antitrust laws and strengthening of industry-specific regulations, as well as the applicability of subsidy systems and tax incentives. Furthermore, regarding compatibility with organizational culture, it is possible to predict the impact on talent retention and organizational performance after the merger by analyzing differences in management policies, decision-making processes, employee values and work styles, etc.
[0074] (M&A synergy analysis support device 1: investment effect calculation unit 118) The M&A synergy analysis support device 1 has an investment return calculation unit 118 that compares the synergy effect with the acquisition price and integration cost, calculates at least one of ROI, payback period, or net present value (NPV) as an investment return indicator, and corrects the investment recommendation level based on the investment return indicator.
[0075] The return on investment calculation unit 118 has a function for quantitatively evaluating the economic rationality of the integration. Based on the comprehensive synergy effect information generated by the synergy effect prediction unit 112, the return on investment calculation unit 118 objectively calculates the return on investment by comparing it with the acquisition price of the transferring company and the costs required for the integration. Specifically, it calculates at least one of typical return on investment indicators such as return on investment (ROI), payback period, and net present value (NPV), and indicates whether the integration will bring about results that are commensurate with the investment.
[0076] For example, when calculating ROI, the investment efficiency can be expressed as a percentage by dividing the annual additional profit gained from the integration by the sum of the acquisition price and integration costs. Similarly, when calculating the payback period, the number of years until the cumulative cash flow obtained from the integration exceeds the acquisition price and integration costs is calculated to evaluate the speed of investment recovery. Furthermore, when calculating NPV, future cash flows are converted to present value using a certain discount rate, and investment costs are deducted from the sum to determine whether the integration will increase corporate value.
[0077] (M&A synergy analysis support device 1: memory unit 12) The above-mentioned transferee company information database 121 and transferor company information database 122 are formed in the storage area of the storage unit 12. The storage unit 12 is connected to the control unit 11, which is equipped with processing units such as the company information acquisition unit 111, so as to enable data communication. The storage unit 12 may be configured with a hard disk or a combination of a hard disk and memory. In the case of a combination of a hard disk and memory, some of the data, indexes, etc. used by the databases including the transferee company information database 121 and the transferor company information database 122 are cached in the memory as needed, thereby speeding up access to the databases. The storage unit 12 may be a data server connected to an information communication network such as the Internet 5, separate from the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 itself. The storage unit 12 may also be configured with multiple data servers, one for each database.
[0078] As shown in Figure 2, the memory area of the memory unit 12 includes a consolidated / synergy-applied financial DB (database) 1213, a synergy evaluation DB / M&A case DB (database) 1214, a market / regulation / external information DB (database) 1215, and other DBs (databases) 1216.
[0079] The Consolidated and Post-Synergy Financial DB (Database) 1213 is a database established to comprehensively record and manage the financial status of the integrated company. This database stores consolidated financial statements generated by the Financial Integration Department 113 based on the information on the acquirer and transferor companies, as well as post-synergy financial statements that apply the synergy effect information calculated by the Synergy Effect Forecasting Department 112. This allows for comparison of the post-integration financial status "without synergies" and "with synergies" and allows the transferee 4 to objectively evaluate the actual value created by the integration. For example, by comparing the consolidated financial statements, which are a simple sum of the financial statements of the acquirer and transferor companies before the integration, with the post-synergy financial statements, which apply the sales increase and cost reduction effects of the integration, specific results such as the degree of improvement in profit margins and the shortened payback period due to the integration can be quantitatively confirmed. In addition, by recording scenarios that reflect different synergy effects for multiple integration directions (horizontal integration, vertical integration, new entrants, etc.), the database can be used for simulations to compare different integration strategies.
[0080] The Synergy Evaluation DB / M&A Case DB (Database) 1214 is a database established to systematically accumulate and manage evaluation data on past M&A cases and synergy effects. This database records financial indicators and non-financial evaluations based on past integration cases, as well as the type and scale of synergy effects realized after integration, and is used as reference information when analyzing and predicting future M&A scenarios.
[0081] Specifically, case data such as the market share expansion effect of horizontal integration, the logistics cost reduction effect of vertical integration, and the business portfolio diversification effect of new entrants are accumulated along with pre- and post-integration numerical and qualitative evaluations. The data also includes information such as the time required for integration, the achieved return on investment (ROI), net present value (NPV), and factors behind integration failure, which can be used to predict risks and identify success factors in subsequent analysis. For example, if an M&A case study of a home care service business in the healthcare industry is stored, information such as the extent to which sales increased and costs were reduced through the integration of the acquiring and transferring companies, as well as how cultural compatibility issues were resolved, can be referenced. This allows new M&A candidates to be compared with past cases for similarity and more accurately predict the feasibility of realizing synergy effects.
[0082] The Market, Regulation, and External Information DB (Database) 1215 is a database established to systematically collect and store external environment information that is essential for evaluating the future value of the target companies. This database comprehensively records market trends across the industry, competitor strategies and market share trends, information on related laws and regulations and policy changes, macroeconomic indicators, and the business environment specific to each region.
[0083] Specifically, in the medical and nursing care sector, information such as nursing care fee revision schedules and changes to the medical insurance system is stored; in the manufacturing sector, environmental regulations and changes to import and export tariffs are stored; and in the IT sector, data protection regulations and cloud-related legal systems are stored. Information released by third-party organizations, such as market demand forecast reports, consumer trend surveys, and statistics from industry associations, is also stored and used to evaluate the risks and opportunities of business development after the merger. For example, in the case of acquiring a company operating a home nursing care business, information on regional aging rates and policies related to securing nursing care personnel can be obtained from the Market, Regulation, and External Information DB1215 to estimate the sustainability of synergy effects and the degree of risk. This makes it possible to evaluate post-merger profitability by taking into account external environmental factors rather than just financial figures.
[0084] Examples of other DBs (databases) 1216 include an evaluation parameter DB, a return on investment DB, a scenario definition DB, a master DB (account item, segment, currency), a prompt / model management DB, and a user setting / authority DB. The evaluation parameter DB stores assumptions such as the discount rate (WACC), capital cost, tax rate, growth rate, and synergy timing, enabling calculation of return on investment and scenario analysis. The return on investment DB accumulates investment indicators such as ROI, NPV, and payback period, as well as calculation results of key performance indicators related to growth, profitability, efficiency, and safety, providing basis data for the evaluation unit 114 to refer to and determine the recommendation level. The scenario definition DB allows users to quickly compare and consider options by pre-setting analysis patterns according to integration directions such as horizontal integration, vertical integration, and new entrants, as well as multiple management scenarios.
[0085] The master DB manages standardized data such as account items, segments, and currencies, and has the function of aligning financial information from different companies onto a common platform. The prompt / model management DB stores version information for prompt templates and analytical models given to the generation AI, making it possible to control the processing content of the generation AI in a consistent manner. The user settings and permissions DB sets conditions and access controls for each assignee4, enabling appropriate management of information confidentiality and scope of use.
[0086] (M&A Synergy Analysis Support Device 1: Communication Unit 13) As shown in FIG. 1, the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 has a communication unit 13. The communication unit 13 has a communication function for establishing communication with an assignee terminal 2 operated by an assignee 4 and an administrator terminal 7 operated by an administrator of the M&A synergy analysis support device 1. The communication unit 13 is capable of communicating with each of the terminals 2 and 7 via a data communication network such as the Internet 5. Here, examples of the "data communication network" include the Internet 5, an intranet, an extranet, a mobile communication network, a wide area network (WAN), a local area network (LAN), a metropolitan area network (MAN), and a satellite communication network.
[0087] The communication unit 13 is constructed with a highly reliable hardware configuration to reliably establish communication between the transferee terminal 2 and the administrator terminal 7 and ensure smooth information exchange. Specifically, it is equipped with a network interface card (NIC) to ensure high-speed data transfer and stable connection, minimizing the risk of delays and data loss. The communication unit 13 also includes routers and switches for efficient routing and distribution of data packets and optimizing network traffic management. Furthermore, the communication unit 13 is equipped with a firewall and intrusion detection system (IDS) to protect the network from external unauthorized access and internal security threats, enhancing data protection for the transferee 4 and educational personnel.
[0088] Note that data communication between the communication unit 13 and the transferee terminal 2 and the administrator terminal 7 is not limited to a data communication network such as the Internet 5, and Bluetooth (registered trademark), a wireless communication standard for short-range communication, may also be used. Data communication may also be via a dedicated line to prevent information leakage. Furthermore, when data communication is performed between the communication unit 13 and the transferee terminal 2 via the Internet 5, it is preferable that the communication unit 13 and the transferee terminal 2 have a VPN (Virtual Private Network) function. If a VPN function is incorporated into the communication unit 13 and the transferee terminal 2, for example, data communication from the transferee terminal 2 passes through a VPN connection, which protects the data from external unauthorized access and ensures secure communication.
[0089] (M&A synergy analysis support device 1: control unit 11) The control unit 11 of the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 includes the above-mentioned company information acquisition unit 111, synergy effect prediction unit 112, financial integration unit 113, evaluation unit 114, index calculation unit 115, non-financial information acquisition unit 117, and return on investment calculation unit 118. The control unit 11 is a computer that executes the following processes: a company information acquisition process that acquires acquirer company information and transferor company information; a synergy effect prediction process that predicts synergy effects corresponding to each integration direction, including horizontal integration, vertical integration, and new entry, based on the acquirer company information and the transferor company information, and generates synergy effect information including sales increase effects and cost reduction effects; a financial integration process that generates consolidated financial statements of the integrated company based on the acquirer-side financial statements included in the acquirer company information and the transferor-side financial statements included in the transferor company information, and further generates post-synergy-application financial statements by applying the synergy effect information to the consolidated financial statements; and an evaluation process that calculates an investment recommendation level based on the consolidated financial statements and the post-synergy-application financial statements.
[0090] According to the above configuration, consolidated financial statements of the integrated company are generated based on the transferee's financial statements included in the transferee company information and the transferor's financial statements included in the transferor company information, and post-synergy financial statements are generated by applying synergy effect information corresponding to each integration direction in the integration direction group to the consolidated financial statements. This makes it easy to consider which form of integration direction group, including horizontal integration, vertical integration, or new entrant, the integrated company will have greater value by comparing the consolidated financial statements of the integrated company that does not take synergy effects into account with the post-synergy effect financial statements of the integrated company that take into account the synergy effects corresponding to each integration direction.
[0091] (Transferee terminal 2) The transferee terminal 2 is a terminal device operated by the transferee 4, and is an information processing device such as a general personal computer, laptop computer, smartphone, or tablet terminal. The administrator terminal 7 is also a terminal device similar to the transferee terminal 2. The transferee terminal 2 can receive support for M&A synergy analysis by communicating with the control unit 11 via the Internet 5.
[0092] (M&A Synergy Analysis Support Device 1: Other Configurations) As shown in FIGS. 1 and 3 , the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 includes a company information acquisition unit 111, a synergy effect prediction unit 112, a financial integration unit 113, an evaluation unit 114, an index calculation unit 115, a non-financial information acquisition unit 117, a return on investment calculation unit 118, a communication unit 13, a transferee company information database 121, and a transferor company information database 122. Each unit except the communication unit 13, the transferee company information database 121, and the transferor company information database 122 is included in a control unit 11, which is a computer. Some or all of the units included in the control unit 11 may be configured as either hardware or software. Input to the company information acquisition unit 111 is performed via an input unit 22, such as a keyboard, on the transferee terminal 2 operated by the transferee 4. Various pieces of information created by the financial integration unit 113 are displayed on an output unit 21, such as a display, on the transferee terminal 2.
[0093] The M&A synergy analysis support device 1 has an input device 15 connected to the input receiving unit 1192 and a display device 14 connected to the display control unit 1191. Examples of the input device 15 include a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, and a voice input device. Examples of the display device 14 include a liquid crystal display device. This allows the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 to be configured using information processing devices such as general personal computers, laptop computers, smartphones, and tablet terminals. The M&A synergy analysis support device 1 may lack at least one of the input device 15 and the display device 14. In this case, the input device 15 and the display device 14 are provided on an external terminal (not shown), and the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 can be used as an M&A synergy analysis support server. Furthermore, the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 may be used as the assignee terminal 2, and support may be provided through conversation with the assignee 4 via the M&A synergy analysis support device 1.
[0094] In this embodiment, the case where the functions of the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 are installed in an information processing device is described, but the present invention is not limited to this, and the functions of the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 may be installed in cloud computing. In this case, cloud computing allows computer resources to be added as needed, making it possible to process large amounts of information, enabling faster and more efficient processing, and also making it possible to easily expand processing capacity to accommodate a significant increase in the number of assignees 4.
[0095] The M&A synergy analysis support device 1 also has a communication unit 13 capable of communicating with external terminals including the assignee terminal 2 and the administrator terminal 7, and a communication control unit (not shown) that controls the communication unit 13. The communication control unit has the function of managing communication functions within the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 and appropriately controlling communication with external terminals. Specifically, the communication control unit has a communication interface management function that manages communication interfaces (wired or wireless) and cooperates with the communication unit 13 to send and receive data, a data transmission and reception management function that manages received data and sent data and maintains data integrity and security, a communication protocol management function that supports different communication protocols and formats data in accordance with these protocols, a communication security management function that ensures the security of communication data, and a communication log management function that records communication details.
[0096] (M&A Synergy Analysis Support Device 1: Processing Operation) 2, the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 configured as above acquires data stored in the acquiree company information DB (database) 1211 and the transferor company information DB (database) 1212 in the company information acquisition unit 111, and generates explanatory variables necessary for integrated analysis. These explanatory variables are input to the synergy effect generation unit 1122, and a generation AI (large-scale language model) processes them while checking them against prompts supplied from the prompt generation unit 1121, and generates synergy effects as objective variables.
[0097] The synergy effect generation unit 1122 references external knowledge recorded in the synergy evaluation DB / M&A case DB 1214 and the market / regulation / external information DB 1215 to estimate the profitability improvement and cost reduction effects predicted to be achieved after the integration. The generated synergy effects are passed to the financial integration unit 113, which integrates them with the financial statement data of the acquiring and transferring companies to prepare consolidated financial statements and post-synergy financial statements. The evaluation unit 114 then calculates the post-integration corporate value and investment recommendation level based on these financial statements. Furthermore, the memory unit 12 is equipped with multiple databases (DBs), including the consolidated / post-synergy financial DB 1213, which store various calculation processes and results, making them available for subsequent analysis and verification.
[0098] (M&A Synergy Analysis Support Program) 1 and 3, the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 has a company information acquisition unit 111, a synergy effect prediction unit 112, a financial integration unit 113, an evaluation unit 114, an index calculation unit 115, a non-financial information acquisition unit 117, and a return on investment calculation unit 118. Each of these units constitutes at least a part of the control unit 11. When each unit is constituted by software, the control unit 11 is configured to cause a computer (control unit 11) to execute the M&A synergy analysis support program shown in FIG.
[0099] Specifically, as shown in Figure 4, the M&A synergy analysis support program executes the following steps: a company information acquisition process (S1) for acquiring acquirer company information and transferor company information; a synergy effect prediction process (S4-S7) for predicting synergy effects corresponding to each integration direction, including horizontal integration, vertical integration, and new entry, based on the acquirer company information and the transferor company information, and generating synergy effect information including sales increase effects and cost reduction effects; a financial integration process (S8) for generating consolidated financial statements of the integrated company based on the acquirer's financial statements included in the acquirer company information and the transferor's financial statements included in the transferor company information, and further generating post-synergy financial statements by applying the synergy effect information to the consolidated financial statements; and an evaluation process (S12) for calculating an investment recommendation level based on the consolidated financial statements and the post-synergy financial statements, thereby performing at least the processing operations of Figure 2 described above. Note that, in this embodiment, a case where synergy effects corresponding to each integration direction, including horizontal integration, vertical integration, and new entry, is described, but the present invention is not limited thereto.
[0100] Next, we will explain the M&A synergy analysis support program in detail. The M&A synergy analysis support program has the following processes: company information acquisition process (S1), name clearing and screening judgment process (S2), compatibility process (S3), prerequisites organization process (S4), integration direction setting process (S5), prompt generation process (S6), synergy effect generation process (S7), financial integration process (S8), management index calculation process (S9), non-financial element acquisition process (S10), return on investment calculation process (S11), evaluation process (S12), and report generation and saving process (S13).
[0101] In the corporate information acquisition process (S1), basic management information, financial information, business activities, regional characteristics, etc. of the acquiring and transferring companies are collected. This information is not merely numerical data; it allows for a multifaceted understanding of the companies' industries, market environments, organizational size, etc. In particular, in the subsequent name clearance and screening judgment process (S2-S3) and prerequisites sorting process (S4), the information collected in the corporate information acquisition process (S1) is referenced and used as basic material for determining the suitability of the M&A and the direction of the integration scenario.
[0102] The Name Clear Screening Judgment Process (S2) is an early stage process for determining whether a candidate M&A company is compatible with the region and business type. For example, if the business is located in another prefecture, this process requires that the business be a home care service that also provides in-home care services. For home care services alone, it must be confirmed that effective area synergies are possible. Similarly, for day care services and home nursing, effective area synergies are also required. By satisfying these criteria, the candidate company passes Name Clear and can proceed to the subsequent detailed integrated analysis. In other words, the Name Clear Screening Judgment Process (S2) functions as a filtering function based on regional and business characteristics, eliminating deals that are unlikely to produce synergy effects at an early stage.
[0103] The compatibility process (S3) is a process that makes a final judgment on the suitability of candidate projects to proceed to subsequent processes in the M&A synergy analysis support program based on the screening results of the name clearing and screening determination process (S2). Projects that pass the name clearing process (S3: YES) are allowed to proceed to the prerequisites sorting process (S4), where they become the subject of specific analysis for determining the direction of integration and calculating synergy effects. On the other hand, projects that do not qualify for name clearing (S3: NO) will not proceed to subsequent processes.
[0104] The assumptions organization process (S4) systematically organizes basic information for integration evaluation of candidate deals that have passed the name-clearing screening and compatibility processes prior to M&A analysis. This process extracts key management data for the acquiring and selling companies, such as their industry, location, annual sales, number of employees, fixed assets, and intangible assets, and organizes them in a unified manner as the prerequisite information required for post-integration analysis. For example, the acquiring company's main industry is "home visits," its location is "Kita-Senju, Tokyo," its annual sales is 110,000, and its number of full-time equivalent employees is 10.5. Meanwhile, the selling company's industry is "visits and massages," its location is "Itabashi-Nerima, Tokyo," its annual sales is 110,000, and its number of employees is 24. This information is essential data for constructing integration scenarios and is directly referenced in financial integration processing and synergy evaluation.
[0105] The integration direction setting process (S5) is a step that specifically defines the direction of integration based on the business and area characteristics of the acquiring and transferring companies. This process uses basic integration types such as horizontal integration, vertical integration, and new entrants as criteria, and selects the optimal integration direction based on the business areas and market environment of both companies.
[0107] The prompt generation process (S6) automatically generates prompts, which are input instructions required for the generation AI (large-scale language model) to perform processing in order to accurately predict synergy effects. In this process, the explanatory variables and target variables to be analyzed are clearly defined based on the integration direction and prerequisites established in the previous process, and these are combined to construct an optimized prompt. Specifically, in addition to numerical data such as the industry and area information of the acquiring company, and the number of employees and annual sales volume of the transferring company, the type of horizontal or vertical integration selected in the integration direction setting process (S5) is reflected. The prompts generated in this way are input to the generation AI in the form of specific questions such as "Estimate the sales improvement effect due to the integration" or "Evaluate the cost reduction effect," and serve to improve the accuracy of the analysis.
[0108] The synergy generation process (S7) uses the prompts constructed in the prompt generation process (S6) as input and uses the generation AI (large-scale language model) to estimate the synergy effects associated with the integration. This process references the financial and organizational data contained in the acquirer and transferor company information, the past synergy evaluation database / M&A case database 1214 stored in the storage unit 12, and external information related to markets and regulations. This derives multifaceted synergies, such as sales increase, cost reduction, gross profit margin improvement, and efficiency gains from business management, depending on the direction of integration. For example, in the case of horizontal integration, the generation AI estimates sales increase due to market share expansion, while in the case of vertical integration, cost reduction due to logistics efficiency. Furthermore, in the case of integration related to new market entry, sales opportunities and risk diversification effects in untapped markets are predicted. The synergy effects obtained through this process may be calculated as quantitative figures or may be output as a qualitative evaluation that includes non-financial factors, and will ultimately be used as basic data for the financial integration process (S8) and the return on investment calculation process (S11).
[0109] The financial integration process (S8) is the process of preparing consolidated financial statements after the integration based on the financial statements of the transferor and acquirer companies. This process integrates key financial data, such as the balance sheets, income statements, and cash flow statements of both companies, and reflects the sales increase and cost reduction effects calculated in the synergy generation process (S7). This process does not simply combine financial data, but generates "post-synergy financial statements" that incorporate the additional revenue and cost reduction effects that will occur after the integration. For example, if horizontal integration expands market share, sales will be increased, and if vertical integration reduces logistics and procurement costs, selling, general and administrative expenses will be reduced. The valuation of intangible assets and fixed assets will also be reviewed, taking into account the efficiency of utilization after the integration and the effects of business restructuring.
[0110] The consolidated financial statements and post-synergy financial statements generated in this way are used in the subsequent management indicator calculation process (S9) and return on investment calculation process (S11), and serve as basic information for determining the feasibility of M&A and the appropriateness of investment.
[0111] Consolidated financial statements are financial statements that integrate the financial information of the transferee and transferor companies and show the financial position and business performance of the entire combined company. Figure 5 Consolidated statements of operations, Figure 6 This is the consolidated balance sheet of Figure 5 According to the consolidated income statement, consolidated sales reached ¥394,392,000, which is the sum of ¥113,841,000 of the acquiring company's sales and ¥110,231,000 of the selling company's sales, or ¥224,072,000, and includes the increase in sales due to synergies. Gross profit also increased to ¥368,955,000 by applying synergies, compared to the combined ¥198,635,000 of the two companies. Meanwhile, cost efficiency has been improved by integrating personnel expenses and selling, general and administrative expenses. This reflects cost reductions, such as the consolidation of executive compensation, supplementary pay, and communication expenses. As a result, operating income was ¥192,469,000, and ordinary income was ¥192,112,000, demonstrating high profitability reflecting the effects of the integration.
[0112] on the other hand, Figure 6According to the consolidated balance sheet, total assets total ¥159,375,000, consisting of ¥118,016,000 from the acquiring company and ¥41,359,000 from the transferring company. Current assets include ¥54,602,000 in cash and deposits and ¥41,655,000 in accounts receivable. Fixed assets include ¥23,245,000 in tangible fixed assets and ¥2,031,000 in intangible fixed assets. Liabilities total ¥12,893,000 in current liabilities and ¥122,876,000 in long-term liabilities, totaling ¥137,986,000. Net assets total ¥21,389,000, with capital of ¥13,380,000 and retained earnings of ¥9,551,000 as key items. The consolidated balance sheet thus provides a clear picture of the combined company's assets, liabilities, and net assets, strengthening its financial base and enabling an understanding of its risk profile. As a result, the consolidated financial statements show the profit and loss plan and financial position that reflect the synergy effects, and provide concrete evidence that this M&A will evolve into a business entity that combines profitability and stability in the future.
[0113] The post-synergy financial statements are not merely a simple sum of the financial figures of the transferee and transferor companies, but rather show a financial plan that takes into account the synergistic effects that will arise from the integration. Figure 5 This is shown in the far right column of the consolidated income statement. Specifically, sales of 224,072,000 yen, which is the sum of the acquiring company's 113,841,000 yen and the selling company's 110,231,000 yen, increased significantly to 394,392,000 yen after applying synergy effects such as the expansion of care management bases and the development of massage services. This is the result of capturing new demand and expanding the service area, which cannot be obtained by simple addition.
[0114] In terms of costs, the financial statements after applying synergies clearly show the efficiency benefits. For example, in personnel expenses, executive compensation and retirement benefits were reviewed, and communication expenses were consolidated through system integration. As a result, total expenses were reduced by 16,300,000 yen from a simple sum of 192,786,000 yen to 176,486,000 yen. As a result, operating profit, which was only 5,849,000 yen on a simple sum basis, has improved dramatically to 192,469,000 yen after applying synergies.
[0115] Also, Figure 6 The synergy effects are also reflected in the consolidated balance sheets of the two companies. Total assets after the merger were 159,375,000 yen, while total liabilities were 137,986,000 yen and net assets were 21,389,000 yen, maintaining a stable financial base while contributing to strengthening profitability. In particular, the synergy effects are added as concrete figures at each stage, from operating profit and loss to ordinary profit and loss, and even net income before taxes. In this way, the post-synergy financial statements do not simply show the results of the merger, but quantitatively visualize the specific impact that the growth strategies and efficiency measures associated with the merger have on corporate value.
[0116] The management indicator calculation process (S9) is a process for calculating indicators to evaluate the management status of the integrated company from various angles, based on the consolidated financial statements and post-synergy financial statements generated by the financial integration process (S8). This process targets typical management indicators such as growth potential, profitability, efficiency, and safety, and is designed to grasp how the integration has improved or changed, rather than simply listing numerical values.
[0117] Specifically, for growth potential, the sales growth rate and market expansion effect are calculated, indicating the extent to which sales increases resulting from synergy effects contribute to sustainable growth. For profitability, operating profit margins and other figures are derived, quantifying improvements in the revenue structure due to cost reductions and expanded service offerings. From an efficiency perspective, sales per employee and asset turnover are calculated to verify how effectively human resources and capital are being utilized. Furthermore, as indicators of safety, the equity ratio and debt ratio are calculated to evaluate the increase or decrease in financial risk due to the integration and the soundness of the capital structure. In this way, the management indicator calculation process (S9) provides a basis for quantitatively understanding the financial and management soundness of the integrated company and visualizes how synergy effects are actually reflected in management figures. This enables objective verification of the validity of investment decisions and integration strategies.
[0118] The non-financial factor acquisition process (S10) collects non-financial information such as the market environment, organizational culture, and regulatory trends in order to assess the post-merger corporate value and potential for sustainable growth, which cannot be determined from financial data alone. This process acquires information on the external environment, such as industry growth potential, competitor trends, and changes in related laws, regulations, and government policies, making it possible to predict the sustainability of the post-merger market position and regulatory compliance costs. Additionally, information on the internal environment, such as the compatibility of the organizational cultures of the acquiring and transferring companies, employee satisfaction, and the management team's integration management capabilities, is collected to assess the impact on post-merger talent retention and business efficiency.
[0119] In addition, non-financial factors such as brand power, the possibility of maintaining and expanding the customer base, and the degree of effective utilization of intellectual assets such as research and development capabilities, patents, and know-how are also acquired and analyzed comprehensively in combination with financial indicators. For example, in the case of community-based services such as home care and visiting nursing, information that is difficult to quantify, such as collaboration with local medical institutions and the level of trust from customers, are non-financial factors that determine business continuity after the merger.
[0120] The ROI calculation process (S11) compares the overall synergy effects obtained through the integration with the acquisition price and integration costs required for the M&A, and quantitatively evaluates the appropriateness of the investment. In this process, increased operating profit and cash flow are calculated based on financial statements after applying synergies such as sales increase effects and cost reduction effects. Next, using these results as a benchmark, multiple investment evaluation indicators are calculated, such as ROI (return on investment), payback period, and net present value (NPV), which are investment recovery indicators.
[0121] Calculating ROI reveals the amount of profit an invested capital will generate, allowing for a determination of capital efficiency. Calculating the payback period evaluates how long it will take to recoup the initial investment and confirms its appropriateness from the perspective of fundraising and cash flow planning. Calculating NPV converts future cash flows into a discounted value and clarifies whether an investment will increase corporate value over the long term. For example, when integrating businesses such as home care and visiting nursing, the short-term profit improvement effects of reducing redundant costs and streamlining staffing are considered, along with the long-term sales growth effects of expanding the regional network. This allows for a determination of whether an investment will enhance the company's overall competitiveness in the future, rather than simply improving short-term income and expenses.
[0122] The evaluation process (S12) is a process for determining whether the investment is appropriate from a business strategy perspective by making a final comprehensive judgment on the overall results of the M&A. In this process, financial indicators and non-financial factors are comprehensively referenced, and evaluation results are generated as decision-making material for management.
[0123] Specifically, numerical data obtained from the synergy generation process (S7), financial integration process (S8), and management indicator calculation process (S9) based on the post-synergy financial statements are referenced. This quantitatively indicates direct financial effects such as increased sales, cost reductions, and improved profit margins. Meanwhile, factors extracted in the non-financial factor acquisition process (S10), such as consistency in corporate culture, employee satisfaction, and the potential for strengthening regional brand power, are also taken into account. This allows for judgment based not only on short-term profitability but also on medium- to long-term growth and sustainability. Furthermore, this process also incorporates the results of the return on investment calculation process (S11), providing a comprehensive evaluation of indicators such as ROI, NPV, and payback period, as well as the potential for non-financial value creation. Finally, it is verified whether the M&A is consistent with the original objectives and will lead to optimal utilization of management resources and enhanced market competitiveness.
[0124] The report generation and storage process (S13) systematically aggregates the various quantitative and qualitative evaluation results calculated in the evaluation process (S12) and outputs and stores them as a report to support final investment decision-making. This process comprehensively summarizes numerical comparisons before and after M&A execution and the results of verifying the effects of applying synergies based on key evaluation indicators such as synergy effects, growth potential, profitability, efficiency, and safety. Furthermore, the return on investment calculation results and overall evaluation comments are reflected, and the document is presented in a format that management can immediately use for decision-making. The generated evaluation report is automatically organized in tabular and graphical formats according to a specified format, making it visually easy to understand. The scenarios and assumptions that form the basis of the overall evaluation are also recorded and stored as reusable information assets for future audits and reevaluations.
[0125] An example of the evaluation report generated in the report generation and storage process (S13) will be described in detail. Figure 7A~Figure 7CAs shown in the figure, the evaluation report comprehensively verifies the validity of investment decisions associated with M&A from multiple perspectives, including synergy effects, growth potential, profitability, efficiency, and safety. The evaluation report clearly shows the numerical improvement effects and risk factors by comparing financial indicators before and after the M&A is executed and after the synergies are applied.
[0126] Regarding synergy effects, the effect of reducing overlapping costs was realized at approximately 16,300,000 yen, and the gross profit improvement amount for the transferring business is expected to be a significant improvement of 170,320,000 yen, while the gross profit improvement amount for the transferred business remained unchanged at zero. However, overall, the effect of improving gross profit through synergies was sufficiently secured, and the evaluation was judged to be "improved."
[0127] In terms of growth, the consolidated annual sales growth rate after the M&A was 246%, significantly exceeding the benchmark of 150%, and the consolidated EBITDA growth rate reached 838%. These figures demonstrate the expansion of the acquired company's scale and strengthened revenue base, resulting in an extremely high evaluation of growth potential. In terms of profitability, the consolidated operating profit margin improved from 10% to 49%, significantly exceeding the benchmark of 15%. Furthermore, a comparison of EBITDA before and after the M&A showed an 858% increase from ¥16,289,000 before the M&A to ¥139,697,000 after applying synergies, confirming a significant improvement in profitability. In terms of efficiency, the total asset turnover rate rose from 96% to 247%, and the fixed asset turnover rate also dramatically improved from 514% to 1560%. These results clearly demonstrate a significant improvement in asset efficiency, resulting in an efficiency evaluation of "improved."
[0128] On the other hand, some indicators of financial stability showed a deterioration. Specifically, the consolidated capital adequacy ratio fell from 21% to 13%, falling below the standard. The net debt-to-equity ratio also rose to 3.19, exceeding 1, raising concerns about financial soundness. Furthermore, the cash-to-month sales ratio fell from 3.5 to 2.9, and the debt repayment period also exceeded the standard at 10.2 years, resulting in a partial deterioration in financial stability. However, the debt-to-year sales ratio showed an improvement to 0.3, confirming that the company's overall cash flow is not in an immediate crisis.
[0129] Overall, the growth potential, profitability, and efficiency are at high levels, and the return on investment is also extremely high. Specifically, the ROI based on the increase in EBITDA after taking synergies into account is 390%, and on the basis of the increase in gross profit it is 802%, so a sufficient return can be expected for the investment of 35,000,000 yen.
[0130] The evaluation report presents a comprehensive comment based on the above evaluations. Specifically, the overall comment is that this M&A will have a significant effect on improving profitability and growth potential, and the investment decision is "recommended." However, there is an issue with the low profitability of the acquiring company due to its high labor share, and there is limited room for cost reduction other than personnel reductions. Therefore, it was evaluated that raising sales per employee through sales improvement and the introduction of management know-how will be the key to stabilizing future cash flow.
[0131] (M&A synergy analysis support method) When the above-described M&A synergy analysis support program is executed by a computer serving as the control unit 11, the M&A synergy analysis support device 1 causes the computer (control unit 11) to execute an M&A synergy analysis support method. Specifically, the M&A synergy analysis support method is a method for causing the computer to execute at least the processing operations of FIG. 2 described above by executing a company information acquisition process (S1) for acquiring acquirer company information and transferor company information, a synergy effect prediction process (S4-S7) for predicting synergy effects based on the acquirer company information and the transferor company information and generating synergy effect information including sales increase effects and cost reduction effects, a financial integration process (S8) for generating consolidated financial statements of the integrated company based on the transferee company financial statements included in the acquirer company information and the transferor company financial statements included in the transferor company information and further generating post-synergy application financial statements by applying the synergy effect information to the consolidated financial statements, and an evaluation process (S12) for calculating an investment recommendation level based on the consolidated financial statements and the post-synergy application financial statements. The synergy effect may correspond to each integration direction in a group of integration directions including horizontal integration, vertical integration, and new entry.
[0132] It should be noted that within the scope of the concept of the present invention, those skilled in the art may conceive of various modifications and alterations. Therefore, it is understood that such modifications and alterations fall within the scope of the present invention. For example, those skilled in the art may appropriately add, delete, or modify components of the above-described embodiments, or may add, omit, or change the conditions of processes, as long as they maintain the essence of the present invention. [Explanation of symbols]
[0133] 1. M&A Synergy Analysis Support Device 2. Transferee terminal 4. Transferee 5. Internet 7 Administrator terminal 11 Control section 12 Storage section 13 Communications Department 14 Display device 15 Input Devices 111 Corporate Information Acquisition Department 112 Synergy Effect Forecasting Department 113 Department of Financial Integration 114 Evaluation Department 115 Indicator calculation section 117 Non-Financial Information Acquisition Department 118 Investment Return Calculation Department 121 Transferee Company Information Database 122 Transfer Company Information Database
Claims
1. a company information acquisition unit that acquires information on the acquiring company and the transferring company; a synergy effect prediction unit that refers to the business characteristics and financial statements of the transferee company included in the transferee company information and the business characteristics and financial statements of the transferor company included in the transferor company information, and predicts synergy effects including sales increase effects and cost reduction effects based on the integration direction included in the integration direction group; a financial integration department that combines the transferee's financial statements included in the transferee company information with the transferor's financial statements included in the transferor company information to generate consolidated financial statements of the integrated company to which the synergy effects are not applied, and further generates post-synergy financial statements to which the synergy effects are applied to the consolidated financial statements; Equipped with The group of integration directions includes at least horizontal integration, in which companies belonging to the same or similar industry or business area integrate with each other, vertical integration, in which companies located at different levels in the supply chain integrate with each other, and new entry, in which the acquiring company enters an industry or market area different from its previous one; The synergy effect prediction unit If the direction of integration is horizontal integration, the synergy effects are predicted based on the business characteristics of the transferee and the business characteristics of the transferor, including the post-integration sales area, post-integration customer base, post-integration staff know-how sharing, and standardization of purchasing and education and training; If the integration direction is vertical integration, predict the synergy effects from a value chain from manufacturing to sales estimated from the characteristics of the transferee's business and the characteristics of the transferor's business; An M&A synergy analysis support device that predicts the synergy effect from added value and market opportunities inferred from the business characteristics of the transferee and the business characteristics of the transferor, when the integration direction is the new entry.
2. the synergy effect prediction unit predicts the synergy effect for each integration direction included in the integration direction group; 2. The M&A synergy analysis support device according to claim 1, wherein the financial integration department generates, for each of these integration directions, consolidated financial statements to which the synergy effects are not applied and post-synergy financial statements to which the synergy effects are applied.
3. The synergy effect prediction unit is composed of a generation AI, The generation AI is a large-scale language model, and by combining one or more types of natural language processing in the large-scale language model based on the transferee company information and the transferor company information, it probabilistically predicts how likely words and sentences given in prompts input to the large-scale language model are to occur in natural language, and is trained and adjusted to perform processing for generating information on synergy effects and execution processing related to synergy effects through sentence generation and question answering, 2. The M&A synergy analysis support device according to claim 1, wherein the synergy effect prediction unit receives the acquiring company information, the transferring company information, and metadata indicating the integration direction as input, and generates the synergy effect based on the metadata.
4. The M&A synergy analysis support device according to claim 1 , further comprising an evaluation unit that calculates an investment recommendation level based on the consolidated financial statements and the post-synergy financial statements.
5. The M&A synergy analysis support device according to claim 4 , wherein the evaluation unit calculates the investment recommendation level in a plurality of stages.
6. On the computer, A company information acquisition process for acquiring information on the acquiring company and the transferring company; a synergy effect prediction process that predicts synergy effects, including sales increase effects and cost reduction effects, based on the integration direction included in the integration direction group, by referring to the transferee's business characteristics and transferee's financial statements included in the transferee company information and the transferor's business characteristics and transferor's financial statements included in the transferor company information; a financial integration process that combines the transferee's financial statements included in the transferee company information with the transferor's financial statements included in the transferor company information to generate consolidated financial statements of the integrated company to which the synergy effects are not applied, and further generates post-synergy financial statements to which the synergy effects are applied to the consolidated financial statements; and executing an evaluation process for calculating an investment recommendation level based on the consolidated financial statements and the post-synergy financial statements; The group of integration directions includes at least horizontal integration, in which companies belonging to the same or similar industry or business area integrate with each other, vertical integration, in which companies located at different levels in the supply chain integrate with each other, and new entry, in which the acquiring company enters an industry or market area different from its previous one; The synergy effect prediction process includes: If the direction of integration is horizontal integration, the synergy effects are predicted based on the business characteristics of the transferee and the business characteristics of the transferor, including the post-integration sales area, post-integration customer base, post-integration staff know-how sharing, and standardization of purchasing and education and training; If the integration direction is vertical integration, predict the synergy effects from a value chain from manufacturing to sales estimated from the characteristics of the transferee's business and the characteristics of the transferor's business; An M&A synergy analysis support program that predicts the synergy effects from added value and market opportunities inferred from the characteristics of the acquiring company's business and the characteristics of the transferring company's business, when the direction of integration is new entry.
Citation Information
Patent Citations
Device and method for analyzing enterprise value
JP2002015108A
Prediction information generation system
JP2025113195A