Model selection device, model selection method, and model selection program

Abstract

SOLUTION: There is provided a model selection device which includes: an evaluation model storage unit which stores a plurality of evaluation models each capable of outputting an index obtained by evaluating a state of a facility which manufactures a product from a law material in association with the law material; a property data acquisition unit which acquires property data indicating property of the law material used in the facility; a model selection unit which selects, on the basis of the property data, an object model, from the plurality of evaluation models, for evaluating the state of the facility when the object law material is used in the facility; and an object model output unit for outputting the object model.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a model selection device, a model selection method, and a model selection program. [Background technology]

[0002] Patent Document 1 states that "the model 45 outputs recommended control parameters indicating the first type of control content recommended to increase the reward value in response to input of measurement data." Furthermore, Non-Patent Document 1 describes "Factorial Kernel Dynamic Policy Programming (FKDPP)." [Prior art document] [Patent documents] [Patent Document 1] JP 2021-086283 [Non-patent literature] [Non-Patent Document 1] "Yokogawa Electric and NAIST Reinforcement Learning for Chemical Plants," Nikkei Robotics, March 2019 issue Summary of the Invention

[0003] A first aspect of the present invention provides a model selection device comprising: an evaluation model storage unit that stores a plurality of evaluation models, each capable of outputting an index that evaluates the state of equipment that manufactures products from raw materials, in association with the raw materials; a property data acquisition unit that acquires property data that indicates the properties of the raw materials used in the equipment; a model selection unit that selects, based on the property data, from the plurality of evaluation models a target model for evaluating the state of the equipment when a target raw material is used in the equipment; and a target model output unit that outputs the target model.

[0004] In the model selection device, the model selection unit may select, as the target model, an evaluation model corresponding to a raw material having properties similar to those of the target raw material from among the plurality of evaluation models.

[0005] In any of the model selection devices, the model selection unit may determine, as a result of clustering the property data, that raw materials that belong to the same cluster as the target raw material have properties similar to those of the target raw material.

[0006] In any of the model selection devices, the model selection unit may change a threshold value of the distance between data used in the hierarchical clustering when, as a result of hierarchical clustering of the property data, none of the raw materials belongs to the same cluster as the target raw material.

[0007] In any of the model selection devices, the raw material may include at least crude oil.

[0008] In any of the model selection devices, the property data may include data indicative of at least one of chemical properties and physical properties of the crude oil.

[0009] In any of the model selection devices, the chemical properties may include a content of at least one of carbon, hydrogen, sulfur, nitrogen, oxygen, and metal.

[0010] In any of the model selection devices, the chemical properties may include a type of hydrocarbon molecular structure.

[0011] In any of the above model selection devices, the physical properties may include at least one of specific gravity, vapor pressure, kinematic viscosity, or pour point.

[0012] In any of the model selection devices, the raw materials may include at least one of fossil fuels and water.

[0013] Any of the model selection devices may further include an operation model generation unit that generates an operation model that outputs an action according to the state of the equipment by reinforcement learning using the output of the target model as at least a part of a reward.

[0014] Any of the model selection devices may further include a control unit that controls a control target in the facility using the operation model.

[0015] A second aspect of the present invention provides a model selection method, which is executed by a computer and includes the steps of: storing a plurality of evaluation models, each capable of outputting an index that evaluates the state of equipment that produces products from raw materials, in association with the raw materials; acquiring property data that indicates the properties of the raw materials used in the equipment; selecting a target model from the plurality of evaluation models based on the property data, for evaluating the state of the equipment when a target raw material is used in the equipment; and outputting the target model.

[0016] A third aspect of the present invention provides a model selection program, which is executed by a computer and causes the computer to function as an evaluation model storage unit that stores a plurality of evaluation models, each capable of outputting an index that evaluates the state of equipment that manufactures products from raw materials, in association with the raw materials, a property data acquisition unit that acquires property data that indicates the properties of the raw materials used in the equipment, a model selection unit that selects, based on the property data, from the plurality of evaluation models a target model for evaluating the state of the equipment when a target raw material is used in the equipment, and a target model output unit that outputs the target model.

[0017] The above summary of the invention does not list all of the features of the present invention, and subcombinations of these features may also be inventions. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0018] [Figure 1] An example of a block diagram of a model selection device 100 according to this embodiment is shown together with a facility 10. [Figure 2]An example of an oil refining flow in an oil refinery, which is an example of the facility 10, is shown. [Figure 3] An example of the correspondence between raw materials and evaluation models is shown below. [Figure 4] 1 shows an example of a flowchart of a model selection method executed by the model selection device 100 according to the present embodiment. [Figure 5] An example of a data space and dendrogram of property data for crude oils A, B, C, and D is shown. [Figure 6] An example of a data space and dendrogram of property data for crude oils A, B, C, D, and E is shown. [Figure 7] An example of the data space of property data for crude oils A, B, C, D, and F and a dendrogram before changing the threshold are shown. [Figure 8] An example of the data space of property data for crude oils A, B, C, D, and F and a dendrogram after changing the threshold are shown. [Figure 9] An example of a block diagram of a model selection device 100 according to a first modified example of this embodiment is shown together with a facility 10. [Figure 10] An example of a block diagram of a model selection device 100 according to a second modified example of this embodiment is shown together with a facility 10. [Figure 11] 99 illustrates an example computer 9900 in which aspects of the present invention may be embodied, in whole or in part. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0019] The present invention will be described below through embodiments of the invention, but the following embodiments do not limit the scope of the invention according to the claims. Furthermore, not all of the combinations of features described in the embodiments are necessarily essential to the solution of the invention.

[0020] FIG. 1 shows an example of a block diagram of a model selection device 100 according to this embodiment, together with equipment 10. Note that these blocks are functionally separated functional blocks and may not necessarily correspond to the actual device configuration. In other words, just because something is shown as one block in this diagram does not necessarily mean that it is composed of one device. Also, just because something is shown as separate blocks in this diagram does not necessarily mean that it is composed of separate devices. The same applies to the subsequent block diagrams.

[0021] The facility 10 is a device (or devices) that manufactures products from raw materials. For example, the facility 10 may be a plant, or a composite device that combines multiple devices. Examples of plants include industrial plants such as chemical and bio plants, plants that manage and control wellheads and surrounding areas of gas and oil fields, plants that manage and control power generation such as hydroelectric, thermal, and nuclear power, plants that manage and control environmental power generation such as solar and wind power, and plants that manage and control water supply and sewage systems, dams, etc.

[0022] The facility 10 may be provided with various control objects and one or more sensors capable of measuring various conditions (physical quantities) inside and outside the facility 10. As an example, such sensors may output measured values ​​PV (Process Variables) measuring temperatures at various positions in the facility 10, flow rates in various paths, etc. The state data indicating the state of the facility 10 may include such measured values ​​PV. The state data may also include manipulated variables MV (Manipulated Variables) indicating the opening and closing degrees of the control objects (e.g., valves). In addition to operation data indicating the operating state as a result of controlling the control objects, the state data may also include consumption data indicating the consumption amounts of energy and raw materials in the facility 10, disturbance environment data indicating physical quantities that may act as disturbances on the control of the control objects, etc.

[0023] Here, when operating the equipment 10, it is desirable to appropriately evaluate the state of the equipment 10 in light of operational targets. In evaluating the state of the equipment 10, it is conceivable to use a machine-learned evaluation model that outputs an index that evaluates the state of the equipment 10 in response to input of state data indicating the state of the equipment 10.

[0024] Assume that facility 10 is, for example, an oil refinery that refines crude oil to manufacture (produce) multiple petroleum products. In this case, the raw materials used in facility 10 include at least crude oil. However, it is known that crude oil varies greatly in properties depending on the region and time of production. Note that "properties" may be interpreted as meaning at least one of the nature or state of a substance. Such differences in properties not only cause differences in reactivity, corrosiveness, and toxicity, but also cause changes in products suitable for manufacturing and differences in product quality.

[0025] The operational goals of facility 10 can be set for multiple items, such as quality assurance, energy conservation, GHG (Green House Gas) reduction, and yield improvement, and various target values ​​can be set for each item. Ideally, these operational goals should be optimized for each crude oil. In other words, it is ideal to generate an evaluation model for each crude oil. However, if a new evaluation model is generated every time the crude oil production region or production period changes, the processing load increases due to the increased frequency of machine learning, and a time loss occurs because a new evaluation model must be generated before facility 10 begins operation.

[0026] Therefore, the model selection device 100 according to this embodiment stores a plurality of evaluation models in association with raw materials, and selects a target model for evaluating the state of the equipment 10 from among the plurality of evaluation models based on property data indicating the properties of the raw materials.

[0027] From here on, a case where the facility 10 is an oil refinery will be described as an example. However, the present invention is not limited to this. The facility 10 may be any facility (or facilities) capable of producing products from raw materials. However, facility (or facilities) in which the properties of the raw materials have a relatively large impact on operation are particularly preferable. Examples of such facilities 10 include coal-fired power plants, where the sulfur content of coal can have a significant impact on the degree of combustion, and water purification plants, where the quality of raw water can have a significant impact on the amount of chemicals added. For example, if the facility 10 is a thermal power plant, the raw materials may include fossil fuels (oil, coal, natural gas, etc.) and water, and the product may be electricity. Also, for example, if the facility 10 is a water purification plant, the raw materials may include at least raw water (river water, etc.), and the product may be purified water. As such, the facility 10 is not limited in any way in terms of industry, size, etc.

[0028] The model selection device 100 may be a computer such as a personal computer (PC), tablet computer, smartphone, workstation, server computer, or general-purpose computer, or may be a computer system in which multiple computers are connected. Such a computer system is also considered a computer in a broad sense. The model selection device 100 may also be implemented as one or more virtual computer environments executable within a computer. Alternatively, the model selection device 100 may be a dedicated computer designed for model selection, or may be dedicated hardware realized by dedicated circuitry. Furthermore, if the model selection device 100 is connectable to the Internet, it may be realized by cloud computing.

[0029] The model selection device 100 includes an evaluation model storage unit 110, a property data acquisition unit 120, a model selection unit 130, and a target model output unit 140.

[0030] The evaluation model storage unit 110 stores, in association with raw materials, a plurality of evaluation models, each capable of outputting an index that evaluates the state of equipment 10 that manufactures products from raw materials. More specifically, the evaluation model storage unit 110 may store an evaluation model for each of a plurality of clusters obtained by clustering raw materials. This will be described in detail later. As an example, such an evaluation model may be a machine learning model generated by machine learning. The evaluation model storage unit 110 may store, for example, an evaluation model generated by machine learning within its own device, or may store an evaluation model generated by machine learning by another device.

[0031] The property data acquiring unit 120 acquires property data indicating the properties of raw materials used in the equipment 10. For example, the property data acquiring unit 120 may acquire such property data from the equipment 10 via a network. However, this is not limited to this. The property data acquiring unit 120 may acquire the property data via other means such as user input or various memory devices, or may acquire the property data from a device other than the equipment 10. The property data acquiring unit 120 supplies the acquired property data to the model selecting unit 130.

[0032] The model selection unit 130 selects, from among a plurality of evaluation models based on the property data, a target model for evaluating the state of the equipment 10 when the target raw material is used in the equipment 10. For example, the model selection unit 130 may refer to the property data of the raw material stored in the evaluation model storage unit 110 and select the target model based on the property data acquired by the property data acquisition unit 120. The model selection unit 130 reads out the evaluation model selected as the target model from the evaluation model storage unit 110 and supplies it to the target model output unit 140.

[0033] The target model output unit 140 outputs the target model. For example, the target model output unit 140 may output the target model selected by the model selection unit 130 by transmitting it to another device via a network. However, this is not limited to this. The target model output unit 140 may output the selected target model by writing it to various memory devices or by displaying it on a monitor.

[0034] FIG. 2 shows an example of an oil refining flow in an oil refinery, which is an example of facility 10. In an oil refinery, crude oil, a mixture of hydrocarbons with a wide boiling point range, is refined to produce multiple petroleum products. In general, in an oil refinery, crude oil is distilled in an atmospheric distillation unit (CDU) and separated into fractions with different boiling point ranges, namely, a gas fraction, a naphtha fraction, a kerosene fraction, a light oil fraction, a heavy oil fraction, and a residue, depending on the cut temperature. LPG is produced from the gas fraction. The naphtha fraction is hydrodesulfurized in a naphtha hydrodesulfurization unit, then catalytically reformed in a catalytic reforming unit (CRU). Benzene is separated in a debenzenesulfonation unit, producing gasoline, naphtha, aromatics, and the like. The kerosene fraction is hydrodesulfurized in a kerosene hydrodesulfurization unit to produce kerosene. Light oil fractions are desulfurized in a diesel desulfurization unit to produce light oil. Heavy oil fractions are desulfurized in a direct heavy oil desulfurization unit to produce heavy oil. Heavy oil fractions are then separated into light and heavy fractions in a vacuum distillation unit (VDU). The light fractions separated in the VDU are desulfurized in an indirect heavy oil desulfurization unit, then catalytically cracked in a fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCC), and the hydrogen is desulfurized in an FCC gasoline desulfurization unit to produce gasoline. Alternatively, the light fractions separated in the VDU are processed in a hydrocracker unit (HCU). Meanwhile, the heavy fractions separated in the VDU are thermally cracked in a coker to produce coke, or processed in an asphalt manufacturing unit to produce asphalt.

[0035] FIG. 3 shows an example of the correspondence between raw materials and evaluation models. In this figure, a case where the raw materials include at least crude oil is shown as an example. However, this is not limited to this, and the raw materials may include, for example, at least one of fossil fuels and water. For example, as shown in this figure, the evaluation model storage unit 110 may store multiple evaluation models in association with data indicating the raw materials used in the facility 10.

[0036] The data indicating the raw material may be composed of, for example, identification information that identifies the raw material and property data that indicates the properties of the raw material.

[0037] In the figure, as an example, four pieces of identification information for identifying raw materials are shown: crude oil A, crude oil B, crude oil C, and crude oil D. Here, the crude oils identified by crude oil A, crude oil B, crude oil C, and crude oil D may be those that have been used in the facility 10 in the past, and may be, for example, different from each other in at least one of the production region and the production time.

[0038] The property data indicating the properties of the raw material may include data indicating at least one of the chemical properties and the physical properties of the crude oil. In this figure, the property data includes both the chemical properties and the physical properties as an example.

[0039] Crude oil is a natural product whose main component is hydrocarbons. Depending on the type of molecular structure of the main component hydrocarbon, crude oil can be classified into various types, such as crude oil containing a large amount of paraffinic hydrocarbons (called "paraffin-based crude oil"), crude oil containing a large amount of naphthenic hydrocarbons (called "naphthenic-based crude oil"), crude oil that is intermediate between paraffinic and naphthenic crude oils (called "mixed-based crude oil"), and crude oil containing a large amount of aromatic hydrocarbons (called "specialty crude oil").

[0040] Here, the products suitable for production vary depending on the type of hydrocarbon molecular structure, such as paraffin-based crude oil being lubricating oil and wax, naphthene-based crude oil being gasoline and asphalt, mixed-based crude oil being kerosene, lubricating oil and heavy oil, and special crude oil being gasoline and solvents, etc. Therefore, it is particularly preferable that the chemical properties include the type of hydrocarbon molecular structure.

[0041] In addition to hydrocarbons, which are the main components, crude oil also contains trace amounts of sulfur, nitrogen, oxygen, metals, etc. The composition (mass%) of crude oil is generally in the range of 83-87% carbon, 11-14% hydrogen, 5% or less sulfur, 0.4% or less nitrogen, 0.5% or less oxygen, and 0.5% or less metals.

[0042] Although sulfur, nitrogen, oxygen, and metals are present in smaller quantities than carbon and hydrogen, they have a significant impact on petroleum refining and petroleum product quality. For example, sulfur becomes sulfur dioxide gas when burned, which can cause petroleum product deterioration, equipment corrosion, and catalyst poisoning. Furthermore, metals (especially heavy metals) can poison plant catalysts. Therefore, it is particularly preferable for the chemical properties to include at least one of carbon, hydrogen, sulfur, nitrogen, oxygen, and metals.

[0043] Crude oil is also classified into various categories based on its specific gravity, such as extra-light crude oil, light crude oil, medium crude oil, heavy crude oil, and extra-heavy crude oil. The term "specific gravity" as used herein may be interpreted as including "density," which has an equivalent value. Vapor pressure, kinematic viscosity, and pour point are also important parameters from the perspective of crude oil storage and control. Therefore, it is particularly preferable for the physical properties to include at least one of specific gravity, vapor pressure, kinematic viscosity, and pour point.

[0044] In the figure, based on property data indicating such chemical properties and physical properties, crude oil A and crude oil B are clustered into the same cluster 1, crude oil C and crude oil D are clustered into the same cluster 2, and assessment model 1 is associated with cluster 1, and assessment model 2 is associated with cluster 2. This means that when crude oil A or B is used in facility 10, assessment model 1 is used to assess the condition of facility 10, and when crude oil C or D is used in facility 10, assessment model 2 is used to assess the condition of facility 10.

[0045] The model selection device 100 according to this embodiment stores a plurality of evaluation models in association with raw materials, and when crude oil E or crude oil F is used as the target raw material in the facility 10, selects a target model for evaluating the state of the facility 10 from the plurality of evaluation models based on the property data of these crude oils. This will be described in detail using a flow chart.

[0046] FIG. 4 shows an example of a flowchart of a model selection method executed by the model selection device 100 according to this embodiment.

[0047] In step S410, the model selection device 100 stores a plurality of evaluation models. For example, the evaluation model storage unit 110 may store a plurality of evaluation models, each capable of outputting an index that evaluates the state of equipment 10 that manufactures products from raw materials, in association with the raw materials. As an example, the evaluation model storage unit 110 may store an evaluation model for each of a plurality of clusters obtained by clustering raw materials. Here, it is assumed that the evaluation model storage unit 110 stores evaluation model 1 corresponding to cluster 1 and evaluation model 2 corresponding to cluster 2, for example, as shown in FIG. 3.

[0048] Here, the evaluation model may be a machine learning model generated by machine learning. As an example, the evaluation model generation device may acquire operation targets (such as plant KPIs (Key Performance Indicators)) for the facility 10, status data indicating the status of the facility 10, and teacher labels, and generate labeling data based on these. Then, the evaluation model generation device may use the generated labeling data as learning data to generate an evaluation model using a machine learning algorithm. The evaluation model generation process itself may be arbitrary, and further details will not be described here. Note that such an evaluation model generation device may be the evaluation model selection device 100 itself, or may be another device different from the evaluation model selection device 100. Therefore, the evaluation model storage unit 110 may store an evaluation model generated by machine learning within its own device, or may store an evaluation model generated by machine learning by another device.

[0049] In step S420, the model selection device 100 acquires property data. For example, the property data acquisition unit 120 may acquire property data indicating the properties of the raw material used in the facility 10 from the facility 10 via a network. As an example, if crude oil E is used as the raw material in the facility 10, the property data acquisition unit 120 may acquire property data Pe indicating the properties of crude oil E. Similarly, if crude oil F is used as the raw material in the facility 10, the property data acquisition unit 120 may acquire property data Pf indicating the properties of crude oil F.

[0050] As described above, such property data may include data indicating at least one of the chemical properties or physical properties of crude oil. Furthermore, it is particularly preferable that the chemical properties include the type of hydrocarbon molecular structure and the content of at least one of carbon, hydrogen, sulfur, nitrogen, oxygen, and metals. Furthermore, it is particularly preferable that the physical properties include at least one of specific gravity, vapor pressure, kinematic viscosity, and pour point. Here, it is assumed that the property data includes data indicating all of the above items. The property data acquisition unit 120 supplies the acquired property data to the model selection unit 130.

[0051] In step S430, the model selection device 100 sets i to 1, where i indicates the index of the cluster. In this way, the model selection device 100 initializes the index of the cluster.

[0052] In step S432, the model selection device 100 calculates the distance Di between the data. For example, the model selection unit 130 may calculate the distance Di between the property data acquired in step S420 and cluster i. In this case, as one example, the model selection unit 130 may calculate the distance Di by averaging the distances between the property data acquired in step S420 and the property data of all raw materials clustered into cluster i.

[0053] That is, when i=1, the model selection unit 130 may calculate the distance Dae between the data between the property data Pe indicating the properties of crude oil E and the property data Pa indicating the properties of crude oil A clustered into cluster 1, and the distance Dbe between the data between the property data Pe indicating the properties of crude oil E and the property data Pb indicating the properties of crude oil B clustered into cluster 1, and may calculate the distance D1e between the data between the property data Pe and cluster 1 by averaging the distances Dae and Dbe.

[0054] Similarly, the model selection unit 130 may calculate the distance Daf between the data between the property data Pf indicating the properties of crude oil F and the property data Pa indicating the properties of crude oil A clustered into cluster 1, and the distance Dbf between the data between the property data Pf indicating the properties of crude oil F and the property data Pb indicating the properties of crude oil B clustered into cluster 1, and calculate the distance D1f between the data between the property data Pf and cluster 1 by averaging the distances Daf and Dbf.

[0055] In the above description, the model selection unit 130 calculates the distance Di using the group averaging method, but the present invention is not limited to this. The model selection unit 130 may calculate the distance Di using other methods, such as Ward's method.

[0056] In step S434, the model selection device 100 determines whether i=n. Here, n represents the maximum value of the cluster index. For example, if the evaluation model storage unit 110 stores evaluation model 1 corresponding to cluster 1 and evaluation model 2 corresponding to cluster 2, n=2. If i=1, it is not i=n (No), and therefore the model selection device 100 proceeds to step S436.

[0057] In step S436, the model selection device 100 sets i=i+1. This causes the model selection device 100 to increment the cluster index. The model selection device 100 then returns the process to step S432 to continue the flow.

[0058] In step S432, when i=2, the model selection unit 130 may calculate the distance Dce between the data between the property data Pe indicating the properties of crude oil E and the property data Pc indicating the properties of crude oil C clustered into cluster 2, and the distance Dde between the data between the property data Pe indicating the properties of crude oil E and the property data Pd indicating the properties of crude oil D clustered into cluster 2, and may calculate the distance D2e between the data between the property data Pe and cluster 2 by averaging the distances Dce and Dde.

[0059] Similarly, the model selection unit 130 may calculate the distance Dcf between the data between the property data Pf indicating the properties of crude oil F and the property data Pc indicating the properties of crude oil C clustered into cluster 2, and the distance Ddf between the data between the property data Pf indicating the properties of crude oil F and the property data Pd indicating the properties of crude oil D clustered into cluster 2, and calculate the distance D2f between the data between the property data Pe and cluster 2 by averaging the distances Dcf and Ddf.

[0060] In step S434, if i=2, then i=n (Yes), and therefore the model selection device 100 advances the process to step S440.

[0061] In step S440, the model selection device 100 determines whether at least one of the distances D1 to Dn is less than a threshold value. If at least one of the distances D1 to Dn is less than the threshold value (Yes), the model selection device 100 proceeds to step S450. For example, if the target raw material is crude oil E, the model selection device 100 may compare each of the distances D1e and D2e with a predetermined threshold value. If at least one of the distances D1e or D2e is less than the threshold value (Yes), the model selection unit 130 may proceed to step S450.

[0062] In step S450, the model selection device 100 clusters the target raw material into the cluster with the smallest distance. For example, if distance D1e>distance D2e, the model selection unit 130 may cluster crude oil E into cluster 2.

[0063] In step S460, the model selection device 100 selects, as the target model, an evaluation model corresponding to a raw material with similar properties. As an example, if crude oil E is clustered into cluster 2 in step S450, the model selection unit 130 may determine that crude oils C and D belonging to cluster 2 have properties similar to those of crude oil E. The model selection unit 130 may then select, as the target model, evaluation model 2 corresponding to crude oils C and D, i.e., cluster 2. For example, as a result of clustering the property data in this manner, the model selection unit 130 may determine that raw materials belonging to the same cluster as the target raw material are similar to the target raw material. The model selection unit 130 may then select, from among the multiple evaluation models, an evaluation model corresponding to a raw material with properties similar to those of the target raw material as the target model. Note that "similar" may be interpreted as including not only similarity but also identity.

[0064] In step S470, the model selection device 100 outputs the target model. For example, the model selection unit 130 may read the evaluation model selected as the target model in step S460 from the evaluation model storage unit 110 and supply it to the target model output unit 140. Then, the target model output unit 140 may transmit the target model to another device via a network.

[0065] Here, a technology in which a control device controls a control target in the equipment 10 using an operation model that outputs behavior according to the state of the equipment 10 is known as so-called AI (Artificial Intelligence) control. It is also conceivable that the operation model generation device generates an operation model used for AI control by reinforcement learning using the output of an evaluation model as at least a part of a reward. Therefore, the target model output unit 140 may transmit the selected target model to such an operation model generation device. In response, the operation model generation device may generate an operation model that outputs behavior according to the state of the equipment 10 by reinforcement learning using the output of the evaluation model selected as the target model as at least a part of a reward. The operation model generation device may then transmit the generated operation model to the control device. In response, the control device may control the control target provided in the equipment 10 using the operation model, i.e., perform AI control.

[0066] In the above description, the case where the model selection device 100 outputs the selected target model itself has been described as an example, but the present invention is not limited to this. For example, the model selection device 100 may output information identifying the selected target model. In this case, the model selection unit 130 may supply information identifying the evaluation model selected as the target model to the target model output unit 140, and the target model output unit 140 may output this information. In this way, the term "outputting a model" herein may be broadly interpreted to include outputting information identifying the model in addition to outputting the model itself.

[0067] On the other hand, if none of the distances D1 to Dn are less than the threshold value (No) in step S440, the model selection device 100 proceeds to step S480. For example, if the target raw material is crude oil F, the model selection unit 130 may compare each of the distances D1f and D2f with a predetermined threshold value. Then, if none of the distances D1f and D2f are less than the threshold value (No), the model selection unit 130 may proceed to step S480.

[0068] In step S480, the model selection device 100 changes the threshold. For example, the model selection unit 130 may change the threshold by increasing the threshold used in step S440 by a predetermined change amount Δ. For example, in this manner, when the result of hierarchical clustering of the property data shows that none of the raw materials belong to the same cluster as the target raw material, the model selection unit 130 may change the threshold for the distance between the data used in the hierarchical clustering. Then, the model selection device 100 returns the process to step S440 and continues the flow. In this way, the model selection device 100 may gradually change the threshold until at least one of the distances D1 to Dn becomes less than the threshold.

[0069] As an example, suppose that, as a result of increasing the threshold by the change amount Δ in step S480, the distance D2f becomes less than the threshold in step S440. In this case, the model selection unit 130 proceeds to step S450. Then, in step S450, the model selection unit 130 groups crude oil F into cluster 2, and in step S460, selects evaluation model 2 corresponding to cluster 2 as the target model. In response to this, in step S470, the target model output unit 140 outputs the selected target model.

[0070] FIG. 5 shows an example of a data space and dendrogram of property data for crude oils A, B, C, and D. Hereinafter, a case where the model selection device 100 uses hierarchical clustering to cluster the property data will be described as an example. Hierarchical clustering is preferable because the processing is relatively simple and the classification process can be clarified. However, this is not a limitation. The model selection device 100 may also use non-hierarchical clustering, such as the k-means method, k-means++ method, and x-means method, to cluster the property data.

[0071] The left side of the figure shows the data space of the property data. As shown on the left side of the figure, crude oil A and crude oil B are clustered into cluster 1, and crude oil C and crude oil D are clustered into cluster 2.

[0072] The right side of the figure shows a dendrogram. A dendrogram is a tree diagram that shows how individuals are grouped into clusters during the clustering process. The dendrogram shows that crude oils A and B are clustered into the same cluster because the distance between their data is close (less than a threshold), and crude oils C and D are clustered into the same cluster because the distance between their data is also close, while crude oils A and B, and crude oils C and D, are clustered into different clusters because the distance between their data is far (greater than or equal to a threshold). When clustering the property data, the model selection unit 130 may visualize the process of cluster formation by outputting such a dendrogram (for example, displaying it on a monitor).

[0073] Fig. 6 shows an example of a data space and dendrogram of property data for crude oils A, B, C, D, and E. In Fig. 6, the same reference numerals are used to designate components having the same functions and configurations as those in Fig. 5, and explanations thereof will be omitted hereinafter except for differences.

[0074] According to the dendrogram, the distance between the data of crude oil E and cluster 1 is large (greater than or equal to the threshold), while the distance between the data of crude oil E and cluster 2 is small (less than the threshold), and therefore it can be seen that crude oil E is clustered in cluster 2. In this case, the model selection unit 130 may determine that crude oils C and D belonging to cluster 2 have similar properties to crude oil E. Then, the model selection unit 130 may select crude oils C and D, i.e., evaluation model 2 corresponding to cluster 2, as the target model when crude oil E is used in the facility 10. In response to this, the target model output unit 140 may output evaluation model 2 as the target model.

[0075] Fig. 7 shows an example of the data space of property data for crude oils A, B, C, D, and F and a dendrogram before changing the threshold. In Fig. 7, the same reference numerals are used to designate components having the same functions and configurations as those in Fig. 5, and explanations will be omitted hereinafter except for the differences.

[0076] According to the dendrogram, the distance between the data of crude oil F and cluster 1 is large (greater than or equal to the threshold), and the distance between the data of crude oil F and cluster 2 is also large, so it can be seen that crude oil F is not clustered into either cluster 1 or cluster 2. In this case, the model selection unit 130 cannot find a crude oil with properties similar to those of crude oil F. Therefore, the model selection unit 130 may change the threshold for the distance between data used in hierarchical clustering.

[0077] Fig. 8 shows an example of the data space of property data for crude oils A, B, C, D, and F and a dendrogram after changing the threshold value. In Fig. 8, the same reference numerals are used to designate components having the same functions and configurations as those in Fig. 7, and explanations thereof will be omitted hereinafter except for the differences.

[0078] In FIG. 8, the threshold is changed to be larger by the change amount Δ. As a result, as shown in the dendrogram, the distance between the data of crude oil F and cluster 2 has become closer (less than the threshold), and therefore it can be seen that crude oil F has been clustered into cluster 2. In this case, the model selection unit 130 may determine that crude oils C and D belonging to cluster 2 have similar properties to crude oil F. Then, the model selection unit 130 may select crude oils C and D, i.e., evaluation model 2 corresponding to cluster 2, as the target model when crude oil F is used in the facility 10. In response to this, the target model output unit 140 may output evaluation model 2 as the target model.

[0079] 5 to 8 show an example in which the model selection device 100 uses hierarchical clustering to cluster the property data, but as described above, the model selection device 100 may use non-hierarchical clustering to cluster the property data. In other words, the model selection unit 130 only needs to determine, as a result of clustering the property data, that raw materials that belong to the same cluster as the target raw material are similar to the target raw material, and the clustering method itself is not limited in any way.

[0080] When the facility 10 uses raw materials that are classified into multiple categories based on the region or time of production, generating a separate evaluation model for each raw material increases the processing load and causes time loss. In response to this, the model selection device 100 according to this embodiment stores multiple evaluation models in association with the raw materials, and selects a target model for evaluating the state of the facility 10 from the multiple evaluation models based on property data indicating the properties of the target raw material. As a result, the model selection device 100 according to this embodiment provides an evaluation model selected from the multiple evaluation models based on objective data as the target model for evaluating the facility 10, thereby omitting the process of generating a new evaluation model corresponding to the target raw material, thereby reducing the processing load and suppressing the frequency of time loss.

[0081] Furthermore, the model selection device 100 according to this embodiment may select, as the target model, an evaluation model that corresponds to a raw material whose properties are similar to those of the target raw material. In this way, the model selection device 100 according to this embodiment can select, as the target model, an evaluation model that is optimal for evaluating the state of the equipment 10 in light of the properties of the raw material.

[0082] In particular, it is conceivable to select a target model based on the region or time of production, but there are cases where the properties of raw materials are similar even when the regions or times of production are far apart, and cases where the properties of raw materials are significantly different even when the regions or times of production are close together. According to the model selection device 100 of this embodiment, a target model is selected based on the similarity of the properties of the raw materials, so even in such cases, it is possible to select the most appropriate evaluation model as the target model.

[0083] Furthermore, the model selection device 100 according to this embodiment may determine, as a result of clustering the property data, that raw materials that belong to the same cluster as the target raw material have similar properties to the target raw material. As a result, according to this embodiment, the similarity of the properties of raw materials, which is relatively difficult to determine, can be determined based on the clear criterion of whether or not they belong to the same cluster.

[0084] Furthermore, the model selection device 100 according to this embodiment may change the threshold value between data used in hierarchical clustering when, as a result of hierarchical clustering of property data, none of the raw materials belong to the same cluster as the target raw material. This allows the model selection device 100 according to this embodiment to group the target raw material into one of the existing clusters, thereby making it possible to select one of multiple evaluation models as the target model. Therefore, the model selection device 100 according to this embodiment can avoid the situation where the target model cannot be selected, thereby preventing a new evaluation model from being generated.

[0085] FIG. 9 shows an example of a block diagram of a model selection device 100 according to a first modified example of this embodiment, together with the equipment 10. In FIG. 9, components having the same functions and configurations as those in FIG. 1 are denoted by the same reference numerals, and descriptions thereof will be omitted hereinafter except for differences. In the above-described embodiment, an example was shown in which the model selection device 100, the operation model generation device, and the control device are provided as separate, independent devices. However, these devices may also be provided as a single device in which some or all of them are integrated. In this modified example, the model selection device 100 provides the functions of an operation model generation device in addition to the functions of the model selection device 100 according to the above-described embodiment.

[0086] The model selection device 100 according to this modification may further include an operation model generation unit 910 and an operation model output unit 920.

[0087] The operation model generation unit 910 generates an operation model that outputs an action according to the state of the equipment 10 through reinforcement learning using the output of the target model as at least a part of the reward. For example, the operation model generation unit 910 may acquire the target model output by the target model output unit 150, and generate the operation model through reinforcement learning using the output of the target model as at least a part of the reward.

[0088] As an example, such an operational model may have a data table consisting of a combination (S, A) of S representing a set of sampled state data and A, an action taken under each state, and a weight W calculated based on a reward. Note that the output of the evaluation model may be used as at least a part of the reward for calculating such a weight W.

[0089] When generating such an operation model, the operation model generation unit 910 may acquire learning environment data indicating the state of the learning environment. In this case, if a simulator that simulates operations in the equipment 10 is used as the learning environment, the operation model generation unit 910 may acquire simulation data from the simulator as the learning environment data. However, this is not limited to this. The actual equipment 10 may also be used as the learning environment. In this case, the operation model generation unit 710 may acquire state data indicating the state of the equipment 10 as the learning environment data.

[0090] Next, the operation model generation unit 910 may determine an action randomly or using a known AI algorithm such as FKDPP (described later), and may provide a manipulated variable based on the action to the control target in the learning environment. The state of the learning environment changes accordingly.

[0091] Then, the operation model generation unit 910 may acquire the learning environment data again, thereby enabling the operation model generation unit 910 to acquire the state of the learning environment after it has changed in response to the application of the operation amount based on the determined behavior to the control target.

[0092] The operation model generator 910 may then calculate a reward value based at least in part on the output of the target model. As an example, in response to inputting learning environment data indicating the state of the learning environment after a change into the evaluation model, the indicator output by the target model may be calculated as the reward value.

[0093] The operation model generation unit 910 may update the operation model by repeating the process of acquiring states corresponding to the determined actions multiple times, and then overwriting the values ​​in the weight column in the data table and adding new sample data that has not been saved to a new row in the data table. The operation model generation unit 910 can generate an operation model by repeating this update process multiple times. Since the generation of an operation model itself may be optional, further details will not be described here. The operation model generation unit 910 supplies the generated operation model to the operation model output unit 920.

[0094] The operation model output unit 920 outputs the operation model. For example, the operation model output unit 920 may output the operation model generated by the operation model generation unit 910 by transmitting it to another device via a network. In particular, the operation model output unit 920 may transmit the generated operation model to a control device. In response, the control device may control a control target provided in the facility 10 using the operation model. However, this is not limited to this. The operation model output unit 920 may output the generated operation model by writing it to various memory devices or by displaying it on a monitor.

[0095] In this way, the model selection device 100 according to this modification can also generate an operation model by performing reinforcement learning using the output of the target model as at least a part of the reward. As a result, the model selection device 100 according to this modification can realize the function of selecting an evaluation model and the function of generating an operation model in a single device. Therefore, the model selection device 100 according to this modification does not need to exchange evaluation models (target models) between the model selection device 100 and the operation model generation device, which can reduce communication costs and time.

[0096] FIG. 10 shows an example of a block diagram of a model selection device 100 according to a second modified example of this embodiment, together with the equipment 10. In FIG. 10, components having the same functions and configurations as those in FIG. 9 are denoted by the same reference numerals, and descriptions thereof will be omitted hereinafter except for differences. In the first modified example, the model selection device 100 provides the functions of an operation model generation device. However, in this modified example, the model selection device 100 provides the functions of a control device in addition to the functions of an operation model generation device.

[0097] The model selection device 100 according to this modification may further include a state data acquisition unit 1010 and a control unit 1020. The operation model output unit 920 may then supply the generated operation model to the control unit 1020.

[0098] The status data acquisition unit 1010 acquires status data indicating the status of the equipment 10. For example, the status data acquisition unit 1010 may acquire various physical quantities measured in time series by various sensors provided in the equipment 10 from the equipment 10 via a network as status data. However, this is not limited to this. The status data acquisition unit 1010 may acquire the status data via other means such as user input or various memory devices, or may acquire the status data from other devices different from the equipment 10. The status data acquisition unit 1010 supplies the acquired status data to the control unit 1020.

[0099] The control unit 1020 controls the controlled object in the facility 10 using the operation model. For example, the control unit 1020 may determine an action using a known AI algorithm such as FKDPP. When using such a kernel method, the control unit 1020 may generate a vector of a state S from sensor values ​​obtained from acquired state data. Next, the control unit 1020 may generate a behavior decision table that lists combinations of the state S and all possible actions A. The control unit 1020 may then input the behavior decision table into the operation model. In response to this, the operation model may perform kernel calculations between each row of the behavior decision table and each piece of sample data in the data table excluding the weight column, and calculate the distance between each piece of sample data. Next, the operation model may sequentially add up the distances calculated for each piece of sample data multiplied by the value of each weight column to calculate the expected reward for each action. The operation model may then output the action that has the highest expected reward among all possible actions. The control unit 1020 may determine the action by, for example, selecting the action output by the operation model in this way.

[0100] Then, the control unit 1020 may provide the control object with an operation amount obtained by adding the determined action to the current value of the control object (for example, the current valve opening). The control unit 1020 can perform AI control of the control object using the operation model generated in this way, for example.

[0101] In this way, the model selection device 100 according to this modification can control a control target using an operation model generated by reinforcement learning. As a result, the model selection device 100 according to this modification can realize the functions of selecting an evaluation model, generating an operation model, and controlling a control target in a single device. Therefore, the model selection device 100 according to this modification does not need to exchange an evaluation model (target model) between the model selection device 100 and an operation model generation device, and does not need to exchange an operation model between the operation model generation device and a control device, which can further reduce communication costs and time.

[0102] Various possible embodiments have been described above. However, the above-described embodiments may be modified or applied in various ways. For example, in the above-described embodiment, a case has been described in which the model selection device 100 gradually changes the threshold value for the distance between data used in hierarchical clustering until the target raw material is clustered into an existing cluster. However, as the threshold value is changed, the similarity in properties between the target raw material and the raw materials belonging to the existing cluster gradually decreases. Therefore, a target model selected under such circumstances may be less suitable for the target raw material than a target model selected without changing the threshold value.

[0103] Therefore, when outputting the target model, the target model output unit 140 may also provide the conditions under which the target model was selected by also outputting information that identifies the threshold used when the target model was selected.

[0104] In the above-described embodiment, the model selection device 100 always clusters the target raw material into one of the existing clusters. However, if, as a result of hierarchical clustering of the property data, none of the raw materials belong to the same cluster as the target raw material, the model selection device 100 may notify the user of this and terminate the flow without selecting a target model. In this case, the model selection device 100 may omit the process of changing the threshold value or may limit the number of times the process of changing the threshold value is executed. In other words, the model selection device 100 may execute the process of changing the threshold value a maximum number of times. Then, if none of the raw materials still belong to the same cluster as the target raw material, the model selection device 100 may notify the user of this and terminate the flow without selecting a target model.

[0105] Various embodiments of the present invention may be described with reference to flowcharts and block diagrams, where the blocks may represent (1) stages of a process in which operations are performed or (2) sections of an apparatus responsible for performing the operations. Particular stages and sections may be implemented by dedicated circuitry, programmable circuitry provided with computer-readable instructions stored on a computer-readable medium, and / or a processor provided with computer-readable instructions stored on a computer-readable medium. Dedicated circuitry may include digital and / or analog hardware circuitry, and may include integrated circuits (ICs) and / or discrete circuits. Programmable circuitry may include reconfigurable hardware circuitry, including logical AND, OR, XOR, NAND, NOR, and other logical operations, flip-flops, registers, memory elements such as field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), programmable logic arrays (PLAs), and the like.

[0106] A computer-readable medium may include any tangible device capable of storing instructions that are executed by an appropriate device, such that the computer-readable medium having instructions stored thereon comprises an article of manufacture containing instructions that can be executed to create means for performing the operations specified in the flowcharts or block diagrams. Examples of computer-readable media may include electronic, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, and semiconductor storage media. More specific examples of computer-readable media may include floppy disks, diskettes, hard disks, random access memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), static random access memory (SRAM), compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), digital versatile disc (DVD), Blu-ray (RTM) disc, memory stick, integrated circuit card, and the like.

[0107] The computer readable instructions may include either assembler instructions, Instruction Set Architecture (ISA) instructions, machine instructions, machine-dependent instructions, microcode, firmware instructions, state-setting data, or source or object code written in any combination of one or more programming languages, including object-oriented programming languages ​​such as Smalltalk®, JAVA®, C++, etc., and conventional procedural programming languages ​​such as the “C” programming language or similar programming languages.

[0108] The computer-readable instructions may be provided to a processor or programmable circuitry of a general-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, or other programmable data processing apparatus, either locally or over a wide-area network (WAN) such as a local area network (LAN), the Internet, etc., which executes the computer-readable instructions to create means for performing the operations specified in the flowcharts or block diagrams. Examples of processors include computer processors, processing units, microprocessors, digital signal processors, controllers, microcontrollers, etc.

[0109] 11 illustrates an example of a computer 9900 in which aspects of the present invention may be embodied, in whole or in part. Programs installed on the computer 9900 may cause the computer 9900 to function as or perform operations associated with an apparatus or one or more sections of the apparatus according to embodiments of the present invention, and / or to perform a process or steps of a process according to embodiments of the present invention. Such programs may be executed by the CPU 9912 to cause the computer 9900 to perform specific operations associated with some or all of the blocks in the flowcharts and block diagrams described herein.

[0110] The computer 9900 according to this embodiment includes a CPU 9912, a RAM 9914, a graphics controller 9916, and a display device 9918, which are interconnected by a host controller 9910. The computer 9900 also includes input / output units such as a communication interface 9922, a hard disk drive 9924, a DVD drive 9926, and an IC card drive, which are connected to the host controller 9910 via an input / output controller 9920. The computer also includes legacy input / output units such as a ROM 9930 and a keyboard 9942, which are connected to the input / output controller 9920 via an input / output chip 9940.

[0111] The CPU 9912 operates according to programs stored in the ROM 9930 and RAM 9914, thereby controlling each unit. The graphics controller 9916 retrieves image data generated by the CPU 9912 into a frame buffer or the like provided in the RAM 9914 or into the graphics controller itself, and causes the image data to be displayed on the display device 9918.

[0112] The communication interface 9922 communicates with other electronic devices via a network. The hard disk drive 9924 stores programs and data used by the CPU 9912 in the computer 9900. The DVD drive 9926 reads programs or data from the DVD-ROM 9901 and provides the programs or data to the hard disk drive 9924 via the RAM 9914. The IC card drive reads programs and data from an IC card and / or writes programs and data to an IC card.

[0113] The ROM 9930 stores therein a boot program or the like that is executed by the computer 9900 upon activation, and / or programs that depend on the hardware of the computer 9900. The input / output chip 9940 may also connect various input / output units to the input / output controller 9920 via a parallel port, a serial port, a keyboard port, a mouse port, etc.

[0114] The programs are provided by a computer-readable medium such as a DVD-ROM 9901 or an IC card. The programs are read from the computer-readable medium, installed in the hard disk drive 9924, RAM 9914, or ROM 9930, which are also examples of computer-readable media, and executed by the CPU 9912. The information processing described in these programs is read by the computer 9900, and causes cooperation between the programs and the various types of hardware resources described above. An apparatus or method may be configured by implementing information manipulation or processing in accordance with the use of the computer 9900.

[0115] For example, when communication is performed between the computer 9900 and an external device, the CPU 9912 may execute a communication program loaded into the RAM 9914 and instruct the communication interface 9922 to perform communication processing based on the processing described in the communication program. Under the control of the CPU 9912, the communication interface 9922 reads transmission data stored in a transmission buffer processing area provided in the RAM 9914, the hard disk drive 9924, the DVD-ROM 9901, or a recording medium such as an IC card, and transmits the read transmission data to the network, or writes received data received from the network to a reception buffer processing area or the like provided on the recording medium.

[0116] The CPU 9912 may also cause all or a necessary portion of a file or database stored on an external recording medium such as a hard disk drive 9924, a DVD drive 9926 (DVD-ROM 9901), an IC card, etc. to be read into the RAM 9914, and perform various types of processing on the data on the RAM 9914. The CPU 9912 then writes back the processed data to the external recording medium.

[0117] Various types of information, such as various types of programs, data, tables, and databases, may be stored on the recording medium and subjected to information processing. The CPU 9912 may perform various types of processing on data read from the RAM 9914, including various types of operations, information processing, conditional judgment, conditional branching, unconditional branching, information search / replacement, etc., as described throughout this disclosure and specified by the instruction sequences of the programs, and write the results back to the RAM 9914. The CPU 9912 may also search for information in a file, database, etc. on the recording medium. For example, if multiple entries each having an attribute value of a first attribute associated with an attribute value of a second attribute are stored on the recording medium, the CPU 9912 may search for an entry that matches a condition specified by the attribute value of the first attribute from among the multiple entries, read the attribute value of the second attribute stored in the entry, and thereby obtain the attribute value of the second attribute associated with the first attribute that satisfies a predetermined condition.

[0118] The programs or software modules described above may be stored in a computer-readable medium on or near the computer 9900. A recording medium such as a hard disk or RAM provided in a server system connected to a dedicated communication network or the Internet can also be used as a computer-readable medium, thereby providing the programs to the computer 9900 via the network.

[0119] Although the present invention has been described above using embodiments, the technical scope of the present invention is not limited to the scope described in the above embodiments. It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various modifications and improvements can be made to the above embodiments. It is clear from the claims that such modifications and improvements can also be included within the technical scope of the present invention.

[0120] It should be noted that the execution order of each process, such as operations, procedures, steps, and stages, in the devices, systems, programs, and methods shown in the claims, specifications, and drawings is not specifically stated as "before," "prior to," etc., and that the processes can be performed in any order unless the output of a previous process is used in a subsequent process. Even if the operational flow in the claims, specifications, and drawings is described using "first," "next," etc. for convenience, this does not mean that the processes must be performed in this order. [Explanation of symbols]

[0121] 10 Equipment 100 Model Selection Device 110 Evaluation model memory unit 120 Property data acquisition unit 130 Model Selection Section 140 Target model output section 910 Operational Model Generation Unit 920 Operational Model Output Section 1010 Status data acquisition unit 1020 control section 9900 Computer 9901 DVD-ROM 9910 Host Controller 9912 CPU 9914 RAM 9916 Graphics Controller 9918 Display Device 9920 Input / Output Controller 9922 Communication Interface 9924 Hard Disk Drive 9926 DVD drive 9930 ROM 9940 I / O chip 9942 keyboard

Claims

1. an evaluation model storage unit that stores a plurality of evaluation models that have been machine-trained to output an index that evaluates the state of equipment that manufactures products from raw materials in response to input of status data that indicates the state of the equipment, in association with the raw materials; a property data acquisition unit that acquires property data indicating the properties of the raw materials used in the equipment; a model selection unit that selects, based on the property data, from the plurality of evaluation models, a target model for evaluating the state of the equipment when the target raw material is used in the equipment; and a target model output unit that outputs the target model; Equipped with the model selection unit selects, from the plurality of evaluation models, an evaluation model corresponding to a raw material having properties similar to those of the target raw material as the target model; the model selection unit determines, as a result of clustering the property data, that raw materials belonging to the same cluster as the target raw material have properties similar to those of the target raw material, and when none of the raw materials belong to the same cluster as the target raw material, changes a threshold value of the distance between data used in the clustering; The model selection unit changes the threshold an upper limit number of times, and when none of the raw materials belong to the same cluster as the target raw material, notifies that none of the raw materials belong to the same cluster as the target raw material. Model selection device.

2. The model selection device according to claim 1 , wherein the raw materials include at least crude oil.

3. 3. The model selection device according to claim 2, wherein the property data includes data indicating at least one of chemical properties and physical properties of the crude oil.

4. 4. The model selection device according to claim 3, wherein the chemical properties include a content of at least one of carbon, hydrogen, sulfur, nitrogen, oxygen, and metal.

5. 4. The model selection device according to claim 3, wherein the chemical properties include types of hydrocarbon molecular structures.

6. The model selection device according to claim 3 , wherein the physical properties include at least one of specific gravity, vapor pressure, kinematic viscosity, and pour point.

7. The model selection device according to claim 1 , wherein the raw materials include at least one of fossil fuels and water.

8. 8. The model selection device according to claim 1, further comprising: an operation model generation unit that generates an operation model that outputs an action according to a state of the equipment by reinforcement learning using an output of the target model as at least a part of a reward.

9. The model selection device according to claim 8 , further comprising a control unit that controls a control target in the facility using the operation model.

10. The method is executed by a computer, and the computer storing a plurality of evaluation models, each of which has been machine-learned to output an index that evaluates the state of equipment that manufactures products from raw materials, in association with the raw materials, in response to input of status data indicating the state of the equipment; acquiring property data indicating properties of the raw materials used in the facility; selecting a target model from the plurality of evaluation models based on the property data, for evaluating the state of the equipment when the target raw material is used in the equipment; outputting the target model; Equipped with The selecting comprises: selecting, from the plurality of evaluation models, an evaluation model corresponding to a raw material having properties similar to those of the target raw material as the target model; As a result of clustering the property data, raw materials that belong to the same cluster as the target raw material are determined to have properties similar to those of the target raw material, and when none of the raw materials belong to the same cluster as the target raw material, a threshold value for the distance between data used in the clustering is changed; and changing the threshold value up to an upper limit number of times, and when none of the ingredients belong to the same cluster as the target ingredient, notifying that none of the ingredients belong to the same cluster as the target ingredient. Model selection method.

11. The method is executed by a computer, causing the computer to: an evaluation model storage unit that stores a plurality of evaluation models that have been machine-trained to output an index that evaluates the state of equipment that manufactures products from raw materials in response to input of status data that indicates the state of the equipment, in association with the raw materials; a property data acquisition unit that acquires property data indicating the properties of the raw materials used in the equipment; a model selection unit that selects, based on the property data, from the plurality of evaluation models, a target model for evaluating the state of the equipment when the target raw material is used in the equipment; and a target model output unit that outputs the target model; and make it work, the model selection unit selects, from the plurality of evaluation models, an evaluation model corresponding to a raw material having properties similar to those of the target raw material as the target model; the model selection unit determines, as a result of clustering the property data, that raw materials belonging to the same cluster as the target raw material have properties similar to those of the target raw material, and when none of the raw materials belong to the same cluster as the target raw material, changes a threshold value of the distance between data used in the clustering; The model selection unit changes the threshold an upper limit number of times, and when none of the raw materials belong to the same cluster as the target raw material, notifies that none of the raw materials belong to the same cluster as the target raw material. Model selection program.

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