Station occupancy estimation system and station occupancy estimation method

Abstract

To provide a station stayer estimation system and a station stayer estimation method for estimating the number and time of stay of passengers in stations.SOLUTION: In a station stayer estimation system 10, a calculation server 120 comprises: a required time simulation unit 127 that, for one or more routes including a station to be analyzed, and for every combination of a departure station and a destination station of the route and a train used as transportation means, calculates configuration information on a theoretical time required from when a passenger enters the departure station until when the passenger exits from the destination station, based on arrival and departure data 114 indicating recording of passage through a ticket gate and time table data 115 being operation information; and a staying time calculation unit 128 that calculates the actual time required from when the passenger enters the departure station until when the passenger exits from the destination station based on the arrival and departure data 114, and estimates the time of stay of the passenger in the station to be analyzed from the difference between the actual required time and the theoretical required time in the same combination.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a system and method for estimating station stayers, and is suitable for application to a system and method for estimating station stayers that estimate potential demand regarding the number of passengers staying at a station and their stay time.

Background Art

[0002] In recent years, in view of the trend of promoting remote work and the future era of population decline, railway operators are strengthening their efforts in non-transport businesses for the purpose of securing a new revenue base. Representative examples include the development of commercial facilities within the station premises and the operation of daily life-related businesses along the railway lines. However, in order to improve the convenience of services and attract passengers, it is necessary to devise ways to support operational optimization, such as timely guiding passengers to the commercial spaces operated by the railway operators themselves or providing passenger demand information to the stores operating in the commercial spaces of the railway operators themselves.

[0003] In order to achieve commercial facility development, passenger guidance, or store operation support in a multi-faceted and efficient manner, it is important to analyze data on where passengers pass, how long they stay, and how often they pass, and utilize this data for policy-making. In particular, when considering the development of new facilities or stores, it is desirable to be able to utilize information on potential passenger demand, that is, passengers who may use the station in the future, in addition to the passengers who already use the target station.

[0004] Here, for example, Patent Document 1 discloses a technique for estimating the number of people passing through a location by short-range wireless communication, classified by time zone and day of the week. Patent Document 1 also discloses an attribute analysis technique that utilizes the attribute information (gender, age, place of residence) of wireless terminal devices. In addition, Patent Document 2 discloses a technique for estimating the number of boarding passengers before and after the arrival and departure of a train by considering the time until the train departs from the platform as the stay time based on the passage information at the ticket gate and the average arrival time between the ticket gate and the platform.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0005] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2021-043641 [Patent Document 2] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2005-212641 [Overview of the project] [Problems that the invention aims to solve]

[0006] Using the technology described in Patent Document 1, it is possible to estimate the number of people passing through a specific location such as a train station by considering the market share of mobile phone companies and the operational rate of wireless communication functions. However, attempting to determine the number of people lingering at a large station using only short-range wireless communication would require the installation of many base stations for short-range wireless communication, which is not practical from a cost perspective. Furthermore, while the technology described in Patent Document 2 can estimate the number of people on the platform before a train arrives at a station and after it departs, it only includes passengers entering and exiting the station, making it impossible to estimate the number of people lingering that take into account passengers transferring at the station.

[0007] Furthermore, the prior art disclosed in Patent Documents 1 and 2 is an analytical technique that targets passengers who have a record of having definitely stayed at a station, and it was not possible to estimate the potential demand of station dwellers from the perspective of whether they have the potential to stay at a station.

[0008] This invention has been made in consideration of the above points, and aims to propose a station occupancy estimation system and method that can estimate the number of passengers who may be able to stay at a designated station and the length of their stay by utilizing information collected and stored by transportation operators (e.g., railway operators) (e.g., ticket gate passage data or timetable data). [Means for solving the problem]

[0009] To solve the above problem, the present invention provides a station occupancy estimation system that estimates the number of passengers who can stay at a designated analysis target station from among passengers using a predetermined means of transport, comprising: departure and arrival data showing records of passengers passing through ticket gates at each station of the means of transport; timetable data which is the operation information of the means of transport; a time simulation unit that calculates information on the theoretical time required for a passenger to leave the arrival station from the departure station based on the departure and arrival data and the timetable data for each combination of the departure station and arrival station of the route and the service used by the means of transport for one or more routes including the analysis target station; a stay time calculation unit that calculates the actual time required for a passenger to leave the arrival station from the departure station based on the departure and arrival data for each combination, and estimates the passenger's stay time at the analysis target station from the difference between the actual time required and the theoretical time required for the same combination; A transfer route data that shows information about routes that a passenger can choose from any departure station to any arrival station, and a target route list extraction unit that extracts one or more routes including the analysis target station based on the transfer route data, Equipped with The aforementioned target route list extraction unit is capable of extracting routes that involve transferring between different flights. A system for estimating the number of people staying at a station is provided, characterized by the following features.

[0010] Furthermore, in order to solve the above problem, the present invention provides a station occupancy estimation method using a station occupancy estimation system that estimates the number of passengers who can stay at a designated analysis target station from among passengers using a predetermined means of transport, wherein the station occupancy estimation system includes departure and arrival data showing records of passengers passing through ticket gates at each station of the means of transport, and timetable data which is operational information of the means of transport, Transfer route data that shows information about the routes that passengers can choose to take from any departure station to any arrival station, The station occupancy estimation system includes a theoretical travel time calculation step in which, for each combination of departure and arrival stations and the means of transport used for one or more routes including the target station, the system calculates the composition information of the theoretical travel time required for a passenger to leave the arrival station from the departure station based on the departure and arrival data and the timetable data; and a stay time calculation step in which, for each combination, the station occupancy estimation system calculates the actual travel time required for a passenger to leave the arrival station from the departure station based on the departure and arrival data, and estimates the passenger's stay time at the target station from the difference between the actual travel time and the theoretical travel time for the same combination. The station occupancy estimation system includes a target route list extraction step of extracting one or more routes that include the target station based on the transfer route data, Equipped with In the aforementioned step of extracting the list of target routes, it is possible to extract routes that involve transferring between different flights. There is provided a method for estimating the number of station passengers, characterized by the following.

Advantages of the Invention

[0011] According to the present invention, it is possible to estimate the number of passengers who may stay at a designated station and their staying time.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0012] [Figure 1] It is a block diagram showing a configuration example of a station passenger estimation system 10 according to an embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 2] It is a diagram showing an example of the data structure of transfer route data 112. [Figure 3] It is a diagram showing an example of the data structure of station data 113. [Figure 4] It is a diagram showing an example of the data structure of arrival / departure data 114. [Figure 5] It is a diagram showing an example of the data structure of timetable data 115. [Figure 6] It is a diagram showing an example of the data structure of required time data 116. [Figure 7] It is a diagram showing an example of the data structure of station staying time data 118. <庸 [Figure 8] It is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure of station passenger estimation processing. [Figure 9] It is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure of target route list extraction processing. [Figure 10] It is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure of theoretically required time calculation processing. [Figure 11] It is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure of staying time calculation processing. [Figure 12] It is a diagram showing an example of a system management screen. [[ID=�1]] [Figure 13] It is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure of operation reception processing. [Figure 14] It is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure of display screen creation processing. [Figure 15]It is a diagram showing an example of a result display screen using a graph. [Figure 16] It is a diagram showing an example of a result display screen using a route map.

Mode for Carrying Out the Invention

[0013] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.In each embodiment, the railway transportation service will be described as an example, but the present invention is applicable to all transportation means used by a large number of people (for example, railways, airplanes, buses, etc.).

[0014] The following description and drawings are examples for explaining the present invention, and for the sake of clarity of explanation, omissions and simplifications are made as appropriate.Also, not all combinations of features described in the embodiments are essential for the solution means of the invention.The present invention is not limited to the embodiments, and all application examples that conform to the idea of the present invention are included in the technical scope of the present invention.A person skilled in the art can make various additions and changes within the scope of the present invention.The present invention can also be implemented in various other forms.Unless otherwise specified, each component may be plural or singular.

[0015] In the following description, the processing performed by executing a program may be described, but since a program is executed by at least one processor (e.g., a CPU) and performs defined processing using memory resources (e.g., memory) and / or interface devices (e.g., communication ports) as appropriate, the processor may be the main entity performing the processing. Similarly, the main entity performing the processing by executing a program may be a controller, device, system, computer, node, storage system, storage device, server, management computer, client, or host having a processor. The main entity performing the processing by executing a program (e.g., a processor) may include hardware circuits that perform some or all of the processing. For example, the main entity performing the processing by executing a program may include hardware circuits that perform encryption and decryption, or compression and decompression. The processor operates as a functional unit that realizes predetermined functions by operating according to the program. Devices and systems including a processor are devices and systems including these functional units.

[0016] A program may be installed from its program source into a device such as a computer. The program source may be, for example, a program distribution server or a computer-readable storage medium. If the program source is a program distribution server, the program distribution server includes a processor (e.g., a CPU) and memory resources, which may further store the distribution program and the program to be distributed. The processor of the program distribution server may then execute the distribution program, thereby distributing the program to other computers. Furthermore, in the following description, two or more programs may be implemented as a single program, or one program may be implemented as two or more programs.

[0017] (1) Configuration of the station occupancy estimation system 10 Figure 1 is a block diagram showing an example configuration of a station occupancy estimation system 10 according to one embodiment of the present invention. As shown in Figure 1, the station occupancy estimation system 10 is connected to an automatic ticket gate 21 and a train 22 via a network 41.

[0018] The automatic ticket gate 21 is a device that automates ticket gate operations and is installed at ticket gates in many railway stations. Passengers can enter or exit a station by reading a contactless IC card (or a mobile terminal with equivalent functionality) or a magnetic ticket through the automatic ticket gate 21. The information read by the automatic ticket gate 21 is transmitted via the network 41 to a group of data management servers (not shown) managed by the railway operator and stored as ticket gate passage data. The ticket gate passage data includes information such as the station where each passenger entered to use the train and the time they passed through the ticket gate (entry time), and the station where they disembarked and the time they passed through the ticket gate (exit time). The arrival and departure data 114 stored in the data server 110, described later, is generated from the ticket gate passage data stored in the data management server group.

[0019] In addition to aggregating the pass-through logs of the automatic ticket gates 21, other methods for estimating ticket gate pass-through data include using public Wi-Fi (Local Area Network) usage logs and information from detected Bluetooth devices. In recent years, with the spread of public Wi-Fi available in stations and on trains, access points have been installed in various locations. Public Wi-Fi may be provided by operators other than railway companies. Public Wi-Fi is a service that provides internet access via wireless LAN, and passengers connect to the internet via access points using mobile devices such as laptops, tablet PCs, and smartphones. The range that radio waves can reach from a single access point is generally only a few tens of meters, so multiple access points are installed in large spaces such as stations. To prevent interference when a mobile device can communicate with multiple access points, communication is performed using an SSID (Service Set Identifier) ​​to identify the network. Therefore, the access point can obtain the connection start time and connection end time of each mobile device. Generally, multiple access points are installed within train stations, often near ticket gates and on platforms. Therefore, the location of a mobile device can be roughly estimated based on the signal strength between each access point and the passenger's mobile device. Alternatively, by tracking the access points to which each mobile device is connected over time, the entry and exit times within the station can be roughly estimated.

[0020] Train 22 is operated using a railway management system owned by the railway operator. The railway management system has subsystems such as a timetable planning system, an operation management system, and a train information management system. The operation management system manages whether train 22 is operating according to the timetable created by the timetable planning system. The train information management system is a system that acquires or collects various information from train 22 in operation and transmits this information to the crew and the operation management center. By utilizing the train information management system, information such as the train's location, train number, and train malfunction information can be transmitted from each train and aggregated at the operation management center. Railways do not always operate according to the planned timetable created by the timetable planning system due to accidents, bad weather, etc. In such cases, there will be a discrepancy between the actual timetable data recorded in the operation management system and the planned timetable data. However, if the operating status can be considered as being in accordance with the planned timetable, the planned timetable data can be used as is for train operation.

[0021] Therefore, in the station occupancy estimation system 10 according to this embodiment, it is preferable that the timetable data 115 stored in the data server 110 is based on actual timetable data recorded in the operation management system. However, as described above, if the operation status can be considered to be in accordance with the planned timetable, the timetable data 115 may be based on the planned timetable data.

[0022] The station occupancy estimation system 10 estimates the number of passengers who may be able to use the station (number of occupants) and their length of stay, etc., based on information obtained from the automatic ticket gates 21 and the trains 22. However, in this embodiment, the sources of information obtained by the station occupancy estimation system 10 are not limited to the automatic ticket gates 21 and the trains 22. The station occupancy estimation system 10 may be owned by a railway operator as part of its business system, or it may be owned by a service provider other than the railway operator and provided to the railway operator with congestion prediction results.

[0023] As shown in Figure 1, the station occupancy estimation system 10 comprises a data server 110, a computing server 120, and an information distribution server 130. Each server is connected via network 42 to an administrator terminal 31, which is a computer used by the system administrator (or the railway operator if the railway operator owns the station occupancy estimation system 10). The station occupancy estimation system 10 is also connected via network 43 to a user terminal 32 and an external system 33. The user terminal 32 is a computer used by users. The external system 33 is a system that manages information on facilities and stores, or a POS (Point of Sales) system, etc.

[0024] The following describes each server included in the station occupancy estimation system 10. In this embodiment, the servers are described as a group of three servers as shown in Figure 1, but the servers included in the station occupancy estimation system 10 can be configured as a single physical computer, or as a computer system composed of multiple logically or physically configured computers. They may operate in separate threads on the same computer, or they may operate on a virtual computer built on the resources of multiple physical computers.

[0025] The basic configuration of each server (data server 110, calculation server 120, and information distribution server 130) in the station occupancy estimation system 10 is the same.

[0026] For example, the computing server 120 is a computer having a network interface (I / F) 121, a processor (CPU) 122, memory 123, and a storage unit 124. The network interface 121 is an interface for connecting to networks 41, 42, and 43. The processor 122 executes programs stored in the memory 123. The memory 123 includes a non-volatile memory element called ROM (Read Only Memory) and a volatile memory element called RAM (Random Access Memory). The ROM stores immutable programs such as the BIOS (Basic Input Output System). The RAM is a high-speed, volatile memory element such as DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) and temporarily stores programs executed by the processor 122 and data used during program execution. The storage unit 124 is composed of a large-capacity, non-volatile storage device such as a magnetic storage device like an HDD (Hard Disk Drive), flash memory like an SSD (Solid State Drive), or an optical drive, and stores programs executed by the processor 122 and data used during program execution. Alternatively, the memory unit 124 may be provided with multiple recording devices, and programs and data may be divided and recorded on multiple recording devices.

[0027] The information distribution server 130, like the computing server 120, has a network interface (I / F) 131, a processor (CPU) 132, memory 133, and a storage unit 134.

[0028] The data server 110 has the same basic configuration as the computing server 120 and the information distribution server 130, but the network interface, processor, and memory are not shown in Figure 1. The data storage unit (DB) 111 of the data server 110 is a database that records the data received by the data server 110, and can be realized with the same hardware configuration as the storage unit 124 of the computing server 120 and the storage unit of the information distribution server 130.

[0029] Furthermore, each of the above servers may have an input interface to receive input from an operator, such as a keyboard or mouse, and an output interface to output the program execution results in a format visible to the operator, such as a display device or printer. Also, the programs executed by each server are provided to each server via a network or removable media (optical disc, flash memory, etc.). Therefore, each server may have an interface for reading data from removable media.

[0030] The data server 110 records data received from outside the station occupancy estimation system 10, and data received from the station occupancy estimation system 10's calculation server 120, in the data storage unit (DB) 111. Figure 1 shows the data stored in the data storage unit 111, including transfer route data 112, station data 113, departure / arrival data 114, timetable data 115, travel time data 116, and station occupancy time data 118. Details of each data will be described later with reference to Figures 2 to 7, which show examples of data structures. The timing for recording or updating each data in the data storage unit 111 can be arbitrarily set for each data. Specifically, for example, departure and arrival data 114 generated from ticket gate passage data managed by the data management server group, and timetable data 115 generated based on information from the operation management system that manages the train 22, are transmitted to the data server 110 via the network 41 and stored in the data storage unit 111 when the data management server group or the operation management system acquires new data, or at predetermined time intervals (for example, every few minutes or every few hours).

[0031] The computing server 120 uses the data stored in the data server 110 (data storage unit 111) to perform a "station dwell time estimation process" which estimates and stores the number of passengers staying and their length of stay at the target station specified by the user (the user operating the user terminal 32).

[0032] The memory unit 124 of the computing server 120 stores programs for realizing the functions of each processing unit: the overall control unit 125, the target route list extraction unit 126, the required time simulation unit 127, and the dwell time calculation unit 128, as well as intermediate data generated during the calculation process. Each processing unit realizes its function when the corresponding program is read from the memory unit 124, loaded into memory 123, and executed by the processor 122. The data to be analyzed is obtained from the data server 110 or intermediate data stored in the memory unit 124, temporarily stored in memory 123, and the processor 122 reads the program from the memory unit 124 and executes it. These programs may be executed automatically according to predetermined time intervals (for example, every hour), or at a timing requested by the system administrator. Details of each processing unit of the computing server 120 will be described later with reference to Figures 8 to 11, which show examples of processing procedures.

[0033] The information distribution server 130 is accessed via networks 42 and 43 from the administrator terminal 31 used by the system administrator or the user terminal 32 used by the user, and provides information in response to requests. The information distribution server 130 stores in its storage unit 134 the programs for realizing the functions of the management screen control unit 135 and the display screen creation unit 136, as well as intermediate data generated during the calculation process. Details of each processing unit of the information distribution server 130 will be described later with reference to Figures 12 to 16, which show examples of processing procedures and output screens.

[0034] Furthermore, the system administrator of the station occupancy estimation system 10 can check the structure and status of the data accumulated in the station occupancy estimation system 10, the processing execution status and calculation results of the calculation server 120, and the usage status of users, etc., from the administrator terminal 31 via the network 42.

[0035] (2) Data Server 110 The following will provide a detailed explanation of the various types of data stored in the data storage unit 111 of the data server 110.

[0036] (2-1) Transfer route data 112 Figure 2 shows an example of the data structure of transfer route data 112. Transfer route data 112 is master data that shows information about routes between stations, taking into account train transfers in a railway network formed by one or more lines. Transfer route data 112 includes information such as departure station ID 1121, arrival station ID 1122, route selection probability 1123, travel time 1124, first boarding line ID 1125, first boarding station ID 1126, first alighting station ID 1127, through service flag 1128, and second boarding line ID 1129.

[0037] The departure station ID 1121, arrival station ID 1122, first boarding station ID 1126, and first disembarking station ID 1127 are represented by identifiers (station IDs) that can identify each respective station. The first boarding route ID 1125 and the second boarding route ID 1129 are represented by identifiers (route IDs) that can identify each respective route. Station IDs and route IDs are predefined by, for example, a railway operator.

[0038] The transfer route data 112 is basically represented by information about the route used from the departure station to the arrival station and the boarding and alighting stations. For example, if it is possible to travel from the departure station to the arrival station using one line, the transfer route data 112 showing the route between those stations can be represented by only three pieces of information: the first boarding line ID 1125, the first boarding station ID 1126, and the first alighting station ID 1127.

[0039] On the other hand, if the journey from the departure station to the arrival station involves using multiple lines, the transfer route data 112 showing the route between those stations requires information on the boarding line, boarding station, and alighting station for all lines used (for example, the first boarding line and the second boarding line). In this case, if the first and second boarding lines are directly connected (so-called line through service), no transfer occurs, and it can actually be considered as a single line. The through service flag 1128 is a flag value used to identify such cases. In Figure 2, the specific flag values ​​used are "-" if there is neither a train transfer nor line through service, "0" if there is no line through service but a train transfer occurs, and "1" if no train transfer occurs due to through service (line through service).

[0040] Note that Figure 2 only shows a portion of the second route used (second boarding route ID 1129), but the handling of transfers and direct routes described above is the same even if there are a third or subsequent route used. For example, if the route from the first to the second is direct, and the route from the second to the third requires a transfer, then the direct route flag 1128 after the data items related to the first boarding route (1125-1127) will be set to "1" to indicate a direct route, and the direct route flag data item after the data items related to the second boarding route will be set to "0" to indicate a transfer.

[0041] In other words, the transfer route data 112 requires the boarding route ID, boarding station ID, and alighting station ID for each route used, and also requires a through-service flag if there is a route to be used after the current route. Therefore, four pieces of information are stored as a set for each route used.

[0042] Route selection probability 1123 indicates the allocation rate to which a route is assigned to a given record, taking into account situations where multiple routes can be assigned to a combination of departure station ID 1121 and arrival station ID 1122. If only one route is set for the combination of departure station ID 1121 and arrival station ID 1122, route selection probability 1123 will be "1.0". However, if multiple routes are assigned, the allocation rate to each route is listed so that the sum of the route selection probabilities of all routes equals 1.0.

[0043] Regarding route allocation, methods include enumerating multiple route candidates through route search and then allocating them using a utility function, as well as using actual data obtained by tracing each passenger's travel route using connection information from wireless access points installed within the station. Alternatively, route candidates can be enumerated for each time period using train timetables (timetable data 115), and the allocation rate can be changed accordingly.

[0044] The travel time 1124 represents the average travel time from the departure station to the arrival station. This value includes not only the actual time spent on the train, but also walking time during transfers and waiting time for the next train. One method for calculating the travel time 1124 is to determine the average travel time throughout the day by route searching using train timetables (timetable data 115). If the train intervals vary significantly depending on the day of the week or time of day, the travel time 1124 may be calculated separately for weekdays, holidays, or time slots.

[0045] In addition, the above explanation detailed that the transfer route data 112 holds route information that takes into account transfers and through (interchange) routes. However, the transfer route data 112 may also take into account other matters regarding the route between stations and hold information related to those matters. For example, even when traveling on the same line, if the stopping stations (or passing stations) are different, such as between a local train and an express train, it is possible to assign a route that involves transferring from an express train to a local train and a route that involves traveling on a local train without changing trains. In this case, the data may also hold route information that takes into account the stopping stations (or passing stations). Furthermore, for example, the data may also be made to hold route information that can accommodate loop lines that have both an inner loop and an outer loop.

[0046] Furthermore, as a variation of the data structure of the transfer route data 112 shown in Figure 2, a separate code may be set for each boarding route (e.g., first boarding route ID 1125, second boarding route 1129) to indicate when the passenger travels on foot between adjacent stations.

[0047] (2-2) Station data 113 Figure 3 shows an example of the data structure of station data 113. Station data 113 is master data that shows information about each railway station to which the station occupancy estimation system 10 is applied. Station data 113 includes information such as station ID 1131, station name 1132, owning company 1133, location 1134, latitude and longitude information 1135, and station layout map 1136.

[0048] Station data 113 needs to be updated when stations or lines are added or discontinued. This update work is carried out by the system operator (system administrator) at the time of actual opening. When station data 113 is updated due to the addition or discontinuation of stations or lines, the transfer route data 112, which is another master data, also needs to be updated. Furthermore, if it is desired to perform predictive analysis using the station occupancy estimation system 10 in anticipation of development plans for new stations scheduled to open in the future, it is necessary to prepare station data 113 as a fictitious master data with the new station added. In this case, the system operator (system administrator) can create station data 113 as fictitious master data and also create transfer route data 112 as needed.

[0049] Thus, the station occupancy estimation system 10 needs to manage multiple master data sets on the data server 110. Users of the station occupancy estimation system 10 specify the master data according to the purpose of the analysis and then request the station occupancy estimation system 10 to perform the analysis (estimation of the number of people and duration of stay at the station) for the desired station.

[0050] (2-3) Departure and arrival data 114 Figure 4 shows an example of the data structure of departure and arrival data 114. Departure and arrival data 114 is data that shows spatiotemporal information and number of people information about the travel behavior of passengers on train 22. Departure and arrival data 114 includes information such as trip ID 1141, departure station ID 1142, arrival station ID 1143, departure time 1144, arrival time 1145, number of passengers 1146, and route information 1147.

[0051] Departure and arrival data 114 generates a record for each grouped passenger's travel behavior, and each record's trip ID 1141 is assigned a unique identifier (trip ID). "Passenger travel behavior" simply means how many passengers departed from which station at what time and arrived at which station at what time. The time granularity that serves as one of the criteria for grouping passenger travel behavior, i.e., the time granularity of departure time 1144 and arrival time 1145, can be set to any unit, such as in units of one minute, one second, or ten minutes.

[0052] The arrival and departure data 114 is calculated by aggregating the number of passengers who entered a station within a specified time period and disembarked at which station, based on the ticket gate passage data. The route information 1147 is a list of route information (used line ID, boarding station ID, disembarking station ID) for combinations of departure station ID 1142 and arrival station ID 1143, and is obtained by referring to the transfer route data 112 shown in Figure 2. If the route spans multiple used lines (boarding lines), the route information 1147 is recorded for all of the multiple routes, using the combination of "used line ID, boarding station ID, disembarking station ID". For example, if route information 1147 is recorded as "20001,1001,1003,20003,1003,1004", it means that the passenger traveled from station ID "1001" to station ID "1003" on route ID "20001", and then traveled from station ID "1003" to station ID "1004" on route ID "20003".

[0053] In the departure / arrival data 114, information recorded in items other than trip ID 1141 and route information 1147 is generated by collecting the information read by the automatic ticket gate 21 into a group of data management servers (not shown) and aggregating it as ticket gate passage data. For example, as shown in the first (trip ID=1) and second (trip ID=2) records of the departure / arrival data 114 in Figure 4, suppose there were a total of 10 passengers whose departure station ID 1142 was "1001", arrival station ID 1143 was "1002", departure time 1144 was "2020 / 3 / 21 12:00", and arrival time 1145 was "2020 / 3 / 21 12:10" (the number of users 336 is "6" and "4"). At this point, the transfer route data 112 is referenced using the combination of departure station ID and arrival station ID (1001 and 1002) as the key, and the corresponding records are extracted. Then, the total number of people (10) is allocated using the route information (item information from the first boarding route ID 1125 onwards) and the value of the route selection probability 1123 in each extracted record, and the allocated route information is stored together with this data to generate the first and second records in Figure 4.

[0054] In addition to the examples shown in Figure 4, the departure and arrival data 114 may also include passenger profile information such as gender, age, whether or not they hold a commuter pass, or credit limit information. In that case, in addition to the route information and route selection probability of the transfer route data 112, the total number of people is allocated and stored for each profile information.

[0055] (2-4) Timetable data 115 Figure 5 shows an example of the data structure of timetable data 115. Timetable data 115 is data that shows the operation plan of train 22. Timetable data 115 includes information such as train ID 1151, route ID 1152, station ID 1153, running order 1154, stop classification 1155, arrival time 1156, departure time 1157, and passenger capacity information 1158.

[0056] The pass / stop classification 1155 stores a value that indicates whether the target train (train ID 1151) "passes through" or "stops" at the target station (station ID 1153). If the pass / stop classification 1155 is "passes through", values ​​do not necessarily need to be stored in the arrival time 1156 and departure time 1157. The timetable data 115 is generated based on the train schedule created by the railway operation system, and when the data server 110 receives the latest train schedule from the railway operation system, the timetable data 115 is updated according to the contents of the received train schedule.

[0057] Capacity information 1158 indicates the passenger capacity of the train (train ID 1511). Capacity information 1158 may also be divided into, for example, ordinary passengers who can ride with only the fare and special passengers who can ride by paying a special fee such as an express train surcharge, and each may have its own passenger capacity.

[0058] (2-5) Time required data 116 Figure 6 shows an example of the data structure of the travel time data 116. The travel time data 116 is data that shows information about the theoretical travel time from entering the departure station (departure station ID 1162) to exiting the arrival station (arrival station ID 1163), and the calculation result by the travel time simulation unit 127 is stored for each trip ID 1141 shown in the departure / arrival data 114. In addition to the trip ID 1161, departure station ID 1162, arrival station ID 1163, number of people 1164, departure time 1165, and arrival time 1166, the travel time data 116 includes information about the route used (route ID 1167, boarding station ID 1169, alighting station ID 1170), train ID 1168, train waiting time 1171, and train ride time 1172.

[0059] Trip ID 1161, departure station ID 1162, arrival station ID 1163, number of passengers 1164, departure time 1165, and arrival time 1166 correspond to the data items in departure / arrival data 114 (specifically, Trip ID 1141, departure station ID 1142, arrival station ID 1143, number of passengers 1146, departure time 1144, and arrival time 1145). In addition, information regarding the route used (route ID 1167, boarding station ID 1169, alighting station ID 1170) corresponds to the content of route information 1147 included in departure / arrival data 114, and in the case of a route that includes transfers, data is stored for each route used.

[0060] Train ID 1168, train waiting time 1171, and train ride time 1172 are data items that are stored for each line used. For example, in the case of a route that includes one transfer, information associated with the train on the first line used is stored as train ID[1], train waiting time[1], and train ride time[1], while information associated with the train on the line used after the transfer is stored as train ID[2], train waiting time[2], and train ride time[2]. Train waiting time 1171 indicates the time from departure time 1165 until the time of boarding the first train, or the time from getting off a train on one line until boarding a train on the next line. Train ride time 1172 indicates the time from the time of boarding a train at one station until getting off a train at another station.

[0061] (2-6) Station stay time data 118 Figure 7 shows an example of the data structure of station stay time data 118. Station stay time data 118 is information about the length of stay of passengers at a station (target station 1182), and the calculation result by the stay time calculation unit 128 is stored for each trip ID 1141 shown in the departure / arrival data 114. Station stay time data 118 includes information such as trip ID 1181, target station ID 1182, start time of stay 1183, end time of stay 1184, departure station ID 1185, arrival station ID 1186, departure time 1187, arrival time 1188, and number of people 1189.

[0062] Trip ID 1181, departure station ID 1185, arrival station ID 1186, departure time 1187, arrival time 1188, and number of people 1189 correspond to the data items of departure / arrival data 114 (specifically, Trip ID 1141, departure station ID 1142, arrival station ID 1143, departure time 1144, arrival time 1145, and number of people 1146). The granularity of the time for the start time of stay 1183 and the end time of stay 1184 is stored in any predetermined unit, such as seconds, minutes, or 10 minutes.

[0063] In addition to the data items shown in Figure 7, the station stay time data 118 may also include, for example, information about the route used, corresponding to the route ID 1167, boarding station 1169, and alighting station 1170 of the travel time data 116, and may also include passenger profile information, similar to the departure and arrival data 114.

[0064] (3) Computing server 120 The following sections will describe in detail each processing unit of the calculation server 120 (overall control unit 125, target route list extraction unit 126, required time simulation unit 127, and stay time calculation unit 128).

[0065] (3-1) Estimation of station dwellers Figure 8 is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure for estimating the number of passengers staying at a station. The station passenger occupancy estimation process is a process in which the calculation server 120 estimates and stores the number of passengers staying and their length of stay at a target station specified by the user (the user operating the user terminal 32) using the data set accumulated in the data server 110 (data storage unit 111). The overall control unit 125 of the calculation server 120 executes this process by appropriately calling the programs of the target route list extraction unit 126, the required time simulation unit 127, and the length of stay calculation unit 128. The data created in each process can be tracked using trip IDs 1141, 1161, and 1181.

[0066] As shown in Figure 8, first, the overall control unit 125 acquires the stations to be analyzed as set on the system management screen (step S101). The system management screen is a screen presented to the user terminal 32 etc. by the management screen control unit 135 of the information distribution server 130, and a specific example thereof will be described later with reference to Figure 12.

[0067] Next, the overall control unit 125 calls the target route list extraction unit 126 and has it execute the target route list extraction process (step S102). As will be described in detail later with reference to Figure 9, in the target route list extraction process, the target route list extraction unit 126 uses the transfer route data 112 to extract target routes that include the analysis target station obtained in step S101, and outputs a target route list summarizing the extraction results.

[0068] Next, the overall control unit 125 calls the travel time simulation unit 127 to execute the theoretical travel time calculation process (step S103). As will be described in detail later with reference to Figure 10, in the theoretical travel time calculation process, the travel time simulation unit 127, based on the departure and arrival data 114, associates the target route extracted in step S102 with available routes, and performs simulation calculations of train allocation etc. on each route to calculate the train waiting time and final arrival time etc. for each route, and outputs theoretical travel time data 116.

[0069] Next, the overall control unit 125 repeats the following steps S105 to S107 for each arrival / departure data 114 for which station dwell time data 118 has not been created (step S104). In step S105, for all arrival / departure data 114 to be processed, the process in step S106 is repeated while selecting one target route at a time from the list of target routes extracted in step S102. In step S106, it is determined whether the route information 1147 in the arrival / departure data 114 currently being processed matches the information of the target route currently being processed (the target route selected in step S105). If the route information 1147 of the target to be processed in step S106 matches the information of the currently selected target route (YES in step S106), the overall control unit 125 calls the dwell time calculation unit 128 to execute the dwell time calculation process (step S107). As will be explained in detail later with reference to Figure 11, in the stay time calculation process, the stay time calculation unit 128 uses the trip ID 1141 of the departure / arrival data 114 as a key, refers to the travel time data 116 which contains information that allows for the calculation of the theoretical travel time, calculates the start and end times of the passenger's stay at each station included on the route of the trip ID, and stores the calculation results in the station stay time data 118. On the other hand, if the route information 1147 to be processed in step S106 does not match the information of the currently selected target route (NO in step S106), the overall control unit 125 returns to step S105, selects the next target route, and performs a comparison with that target route.

[0070] In Figure 8 above, the station occupancy estimation process is shown to be executed when a predetermined operation is performed on the system management screen. However, in this embodiment, the trigger for the station occupancy estimation process is not limited to this. For example, the station occupancy estimation process may be executed periodically, such as daily, weekly, or monthly, for each station (or designated station).

[0071] (3-2) Extraction process of target route list Figure 9 is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure for extracting the list of target routes. The process for extracting the list of target routes is performed by the list of target routes extraction unit 126.

[0072] As shown in Figure 9, the target route list extraction unit 126 first acquires information on stations to be analyzed that are set outside of its own program (step S201). Specifically, the information on stations to be analyzed is set on the system management screen shown in Figure 12, and is passed from the overall control unit 125 to the target route list extraction unit 126 via step S101 in Figure 8. Note that there may be one or more stations to be analyzed.

[0073] Next, the target route list extraction unit 126 reads the transfer route data 112 from the data server 110 (step S202). Then, the target route list extraction unit 126 repeats the following steps 204 to S206 for each record of the transfer route data 112 read in step S202 (step S203).

[0074] In step S204, the target route list extraction unit 126 repeats the following steps S205 to S206, selecting one station at a time from the stations set as stations to be analyzed.

[0075] In step S205, the target route list extraction unit 126 refers to the route information in the selected record of the transfer route data 112 (specifically, all boarding and alighting stations on the route used, such as the first boarding station ID 1126 and the first alighting station ID 1127), and determines whether the selected analysis target station is included in the boarding or alighting stations of the above route information.

[0076] If the station to be analyzed is included in the route information in step S205 (YES in step S205), the route, boarding station, and alighting station information is extracted from the selected record in the transfer route data 112, a string is created in a predetermined format such as "1st boarding route-1st boarding station-1st alighting station-2nd boarding route-2nd boarding station-2nd alighting station-..." and added to the data in the target route list. On the other hand, if the station to be analyzed is not included in the route information in step S205 (NO in step S205), the process returns to step S204, the next station to be analyzed is selected, and the process in step S205 is repeated.

[0077] After processing steps 204 to S206 is completed for all records of the transfer route data 112, the target route list extraction unit 126 outputs the target route list data (step S207) and terminates the target route list extraction process. The target route list data may be output in a file format or other format, or it may be temporarily stored within the program.

[0078] (3-3) Theoretical calculation of required time Figure 10 is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure for the theoretical required time calculation process. The theoretical required time calculation process is performed by the required time simulation unit 127. The required time simulation unit 127 is assumed to be called by the overall control unit 125 at the same time as, or after, the target route list extraction unit 126 is called.

[0079] According to Figure 10, first the travel time simulation unit 127 reads departure and arrival data 114 from the data server 110 (step S301), and then reads timetable data 115 (step S302).

[0080] Next, the time simulation unit 127 repeats the following steps S304 to S309 for each record of the departure and arrival data 114 read in step S301 (step S303).

[0081] In step S304, the time simulation unit 127 refers to the route information 1147 in the currently selected record of the departure / arrival data 114, identifies the routes used included in the route information 1147, and repeats the following steps S305 to S308 for the number of routes used, selecting each route one by one.

[0082] In step S305, the travel time simulation unit 127 obtains the route ID to be used first from the route information 1147 and searches for the train that runs on the relevant route and arrives at the boarding station after the departure time 1144.

[0083] Next, the travel time simulation unit 127 determines whether it is possible to board the train searched in step S305 (step S306). Specifically, the travel time simulation unit 127 refers to the number of passengers on the searched train and determines that it is possible to board if the number of passengers 1146 included in the currently selected record of the departure and arrival data 114 does not exceed the capacity of the train, and determines that it is not possible to board if it exceeds the capacity. At this time, the capacity of the train may be determined by using the capacity information 1158 of the timetable data 115 read in step S302 as is, or by setting a margin based on the value of the capacity information 1158, for example, allowing up to "capacity information + 100 people" or allowing up to "capacity information × a times". Furthermore, the degree of the above margin may be adjusted depending on the route and time of day.

[0084] If a train is found in step S306 (YES in step S306), the travel time simulation unit 127 refers to the boarding section (all stations between departure station ID 1142 and arrival station ID 1143) in the selected record of departure / arrival data 114, adds it to the passenger information for the relevant train, and stores it. It also stores the train ID 1151 (relevant train ID) of the found train (step S307). Furthermore, in step S307, the travel time simulation unit 127 calculates and stores the train waiting time from the difference between the departure time 1144 in the selected record of departure / arrival data 114 and the departure time 1157 of the record with the relevant train ID in the timetable data 115. In reality, since walking time is required from entering the ticket gate at the departure station to the platform where the train of the first line to be used arrives, the train waiting time may be calculated by subtracting a certain amount of time that takes this walking time into account from the above train waiting time.

[0085] Following step S307, the travel time simulation unit 127 refers to the arrival time 1156 of the train with the relevant train ID in the timetable data 115, and searches for trains that can be boarded after this arrival time (step S308). At this time, the travel time simulation unit 127 stores the difference between the time the train with the relevant train ID departs the boarding station and the time it arrives at the alighting station as the travel time.

[0086] Then, after repeating the processes in steps S305 to S308 above for all route IDs of the routes used indicated by the route information 1147, if the search for available trains for all routes used is successful and it is confirmed that the train will arrive at the destination station included in the selected record of the departure / arrival data 114, the travel time simulation unit 127 adds the information it has held, such as train ID, train waiting time, and train ride time, to the travel time data 116 along with the information from the selected record of the departure / arrival data 114 (step S309). Specifically, in the record of the travel time data 116 with the corresponding trip ID 1181, the train ID 1168, train waiting time 1171, and train ride time 1172 are updated with the previously held train ID, train waiting time, and train ride time, and the information from the selected record of the departure / arrival data 114 is added to the departure station ID 1162 to arrival time 1166.

[0087] As described above, by executing the time calculation process shown in Figure 10, the time simulation unit 127 can calculate the information necessary to calculate the theoretical time required for each trip ID and store this information in the time data 116.

[0088] (3-4) Calculation process for length of stay Figure 11 is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure for calculating the duration of stay. The duration of stay calculation process is performed by the duration of stay calculation unit 128. The duration of stay calculation unit 128 is called after the target route list extraction unit 126 and the required time simulation unit 127 have been called and the processing by their respective processing units has been completed, and the duration of stay calculation process is executed by the duration of stay calculation unit 128.

[0089] According to Figure 11, first, the stay time calculation unit 128 obtains information on the stations to be analyzed, which is passed from outside its own program, and then reads the arrival and departure data 114 from the data server 110 to obtain the trip ID 1141 (step S401).

[0090] Next, the stay time calculation unit 128 refers to the required time data 116 and extracts records with the same trip ID 1161 as the trip ID 1141 obtained in step S401 (step S402).

[0091] Next, the stay time calculation unit 128 repeats the following steps S404 to S406 for each station to be analyzed, as obtained in step S401 (step S403).

[0092] In step S404, the stay time calculation unit 128 determines the start time of stay at the station under analysis by referring to the departure time 1165, boarding station ID 1169, alighting station ID 1170, train waiting time 1171, and train ride time 1172 (if the record uses multiple lines, there are multiple sets of boarding station, alighting station, train waiting time, and train ride time) from the records of the required time data 116 extracted in step S402.

[0093] Specifically, in step S404, if the station ID of the station being analyzed matches the boarding station ID of the first line used, then "start time of stay = departure time". Also, if the station ID of the station being analyzed matches the alighting station ID of the first line used, then "start time of stay = departure time + waiting time for the train on the first line + boarding time on the first train". Note that during peak hours, boarding and alighting from trains may take time, and walking time within the station may be longer, so a margin time to account for peak hours may be added when determining the start time of stay. Furthermore, if the station ID of the station being analyzed matches the alighting station ID of the second or subsequent lines used, the calculation can be done using the same formula as for the alighting station ID of the first line used, as described above: "start time of stay = departure time + waiting time for the train on the line used to reach the station + boarding time on the train on the line used to reach the station".

[0094] Next, the stay duration calculation unit 128 determines the end time of stay at the station under analysis (step S405). The method for determining the end time of stay will be explained in detail.

[0095] First, by referring to the record of the required time data 116 extracted in step S402, the train waiting time 1171 and train travel time 1172 (if multiple lines are used, there will be multiple pairs of train waiting time and train travel time) are totaled and added to the departure time, the theoretical departure time at the arrival station can be determined assuming no wasted movement from the departure station to the arrival station. Then, the stay time calculation unit 128 compares this theoretical departure time with the arrival time 1145 of the departure / arrival data 114 with the same trip ID, and adds the difference to the stay start time determined in step S404 to calculate the stay end time.

[0096] Let's take the first record of the travel time data 116 in Figure 6 as an example to illustrate a specific calculation. In the record with trip ID "1", the waiting time for the first train (train waiting time [1] 1171) is "3.0 minutes", and the boarding time for the first train (train boarding time [1] 1172) is "4.0 minutes", so adding these together gives "7.0 minutes". Then, adding this "7.0 minutes" to the departure time 1165, which is information inherited from the departure / arrival data 114, gives "2020 / 03 / 21 12:07". This is the theoretical departure time. However, the arrival time 1166, which is also information inherited from the departure / arrival data 114, is "2020 / 03 / 21 12:10", resulting in a difference of "3.0 minutes" between the actual arrival time and the theoretical departure time. This difference excludes the time spent waiting for a train, and can therefore be considered as the time spent in the station premises for some purpose, such as meeting someone or making a purchase. The stay time calculation unit 128 adds this "3.0 minute" difference to the start time of stay 1183 "2020 / 03 / 21 12:00" in the station stay time data 118, thereby determining the end time of stay 1184 to be "2020 / 03 / 21 12:03".

[0097] Furthermore, when calculating the end time of stay, in addition to the difference mentioned above, the train waiting time 1171 in the travel time data 116 may also be considered part of the stay time and added to the start time of stay 1183. Also, since the difference mentioned above may actually include a considerable amount of stay time at stations other than the target station, this may be taken into consideration and stored in the form of the difference multiplied by a coefficient. This coefficient may be set to be fixed for each station, or it may be set on a case-by-case basis depending on which stations are included in the travel route shown in the travel time data 116 (for example, whether a certain large station is included).

[0098] Next, the stay time calculation unit 128 adds the information obtained up to this point to the station stay time data 118 (step S406). Specifically, for the record with the selected trip ID and the station to be analyzed as trip ID 1181 and target station 1182, the start time of stay determined in step S404 is added to the start time of stay 1183, and the end time of stay determined in step S405 is added to the end time of stay 1184. Furthermore, for the above record, the information inherited from the departure and arrival data 114 (departure station ID 1142, arrival station ID 1143, departure time 1144, arrival time 1145, number of users 1146) is added to departure station ID 1185, arrival station ID 1186, departure time 1187, arrival time 1188, and number of users 1189. With these additions, a record to be stored in the station stay time data 118 is generated.

[0099] After the processing in step S406, if the termination condition for the loop is not met, the process returns to step S403. If the termination condition for the loop is met, the dwell time calculation process is terminated.

[0100] (4) Information distribution server 130 The following sections will provide a detailed explanation of the screens handled by each processing unit (management screen control unit 135, display screen creation unit 136) of the information distribution server 130.

[0101] (4-1) System Administration Screen Figure 12 shows an example of a system management screen. The system management screen 210 shown in Figure 12 is a screen for users of the station occupancy estimation system 10 (for example, a user operating the user terminal 32) to input conditions when analyzing trends of station occupants. The system management screen 210 is generated by the management screen control unit 135 and provided to the user terminal 32 via the network 43, etc.

[0102] The system administration screen 210 contains several text input fields and selection boxes, allowing users to choose conditions from a set of options according to their analysis needs. For example, in the system administration screen 210 shown in Figure 12, the left side of the screen contains an analysis target station selection field 211 for selecting the stations to be analyzed, and the right side contains an analysis processing operation field 212 for determining the content of the analysis process. In addition to these fields for selecting the stations to be analyzed and the analysis process, there may also be fields for specifying the analysis period, such as year, month, and day, or the days of the week to be analyzed in detail. In the analysis target station selection field 211, it is possible to select only one station or multiple stations. If there are many candidates for the stations to be analyzed, an interface may be provided for uploading a list of stations in text file format.

[0103] In Figure 12, the analysis processing operation field 212 is provided with a start button 213, a cancel button 214, and a display button 215 as buttons for selecting the content of the analysis processing. When the user selects a target station in the analysis target station selection field 211 and presses the start button 213, the management screen control unit 135 executes an operation reception process, and the execution of the station occupancy estimation process (see Figure 8) for the target station begins. Details of the operation reception process will be described later with reference to Figure 13. Also, when the user presses the cancel button 214 while the station occupancy estimation process is in progress, the management screen control unit 135 executes an operation reception process, interrupting or canceling the execution of the station occupancy estimation process. Then, when the user presses the display button 215 after the station occupancy estimation process is completed (or even while it is in progress), the management screen control unit 135 executes an operation reception process, and the display screen creation unit 136 executes a display screen creation process, generating and displaying a results display screen based on the results of the analysis processing. More specifically, the results of the analysis process are estimates of the number of passengers and their length of stay at the stations under analysis. The display screen creation process aggregates and graphs these estimates, and this information is displayed on the results screen. Details of the results screen will be described later with reference to Figures 14 to 16.

[0104] Furthermore, if no stations are selected in the station selection field 211, pressing any button in the analysis processing operation field 212 will not effectively execute any processing. Therefore, all buttons in the analysis processing operation field 212 may be disabled (unable to press). Additionally, the cancel button 214 is only meaningful during the period when the start button 213 is pressed and the station occupancy estimation processing is being executed. For example, the management screen control unit 135 may monitor the progress of the station occupancy estimation processing on the calculation server 120 and control the enabled or disabled state of the cancel button 214. The display button 215 becomes enabled when the execution of the station occupancy estimation processing is completely finished. In addition, the station occupancy estimation system 10 according to this embodiment may be configured to execute multiple analysis processes simultaneously. In that case, it is advisable to allow the user to check all processing processes currently running in the system via the system management screen 210 or the like.

[0105] Furthermore, the information distribution server 130 (management screen control unit 135) may display the progress of the station occupancy estimation process on the system management screen 210 or other screens (for example, a pop-up). By displaying the progress in this way, users can understand how long it is likely to take to complete the station occupancy estimation process. If it appears that it will take longer than expected, they can press the cancel button 214 to temporarily suspend the process, narrow down and re-select the stations to be analyzed, and then press the start button 213 again to make adjustments.

[0106] Figure 13 is a flowchart showing an example of the operation acceptance process. The operation acceptance process is a process in which the management screen control unit 135 executes the necessary processing according to the conditions entered by the user on the system management screen 210. The operation acceptance process starts when a valid operation is performed on any of the buttons 213 to 215 in the analysis processing operation field 212 on the system management screen 210 shown in Figure 12.

[0107] According to Figure 13, first, the management screen control unit 135 obtains information on the station to be analyzed specified in the station selection field 211 of the system management screen 210 (step S501). Next, the management screen control unit 135 obtains the details of the analysis process to be executed specified in the analysis process operation field 212 of the system management screen 210 (step S502).

[0108] If the execution status obtained in step S502 is "Start", the management screen control unit 135 requests the overall control unit 125 to execute the station occupancy estimation process, using the target station obtained in step S501 as an argument. As a result, the calculation server 120 executes the station occupancy estimation process for the target station (see Figure 8) (step S503). The timing of the execution of the station occupancy estimation process requested in step S503 may be immediate, or a job may be registered to start processing at a specified time.

[0109] Furthermore, if the execution content obtained in step S502 is "cancel", the management screen control unit 135 requests the overall control unit 125 to stop the station occupancy estimation process (step S503). As a result, the station occupancy estimation process that is in progress on the calculation server 120 is interrupted (or canceled). Also, if the execution content obtained in step S502 is "display", the management screen control unit 135 calls the display screen creation unit 136 and requests the execution of the display screen creation process (step S503). As a result, a result display screen based on the results of the station occupancy estimation process is created and displayed.

[0110] By executing the operation reception process shown in Figure 13, the management screen control unit 135 controls the execution of the analysis process that estimates the number of people staying at the target station in response to user input operations on the system management screen 210.

[0111] (4-2) Result display screen Figure 14 is a flowchart showing an example of the processing procedure for the display screen creation process. The display screen creation process is a process in which the display screen creation unit 136 generates and displays a results display screen based on the execution results of the analysis process (station occupancy estimation process). As explained in step S503 of Figure 13, the display screen creation process is executed when the display button 215 is pressed on the system management screen 210 shown in Figure 12.

[0112] As shown in Figure 14, first, the display screen creation unit 136 obtains the stations to be displayed and the display conditions for the results display screen from the management screen control unit 135 (step S601). The stations to be displayed can be considered equivalent to the stations to be analyzed selected on the system management screen 210. In the explanation so far, it has been assumed that when the display button 215 is pressed on the system management screen 210 in Figure 12, the results display screen is generated and displayed. However, it is more preferable that when the display button 215 is pressed, a detailed screen regarding the display conditions appears, allowing the user to specify detailed display conditions. In this case, examples of display conditions that can be specified on the detailed screen include the selection of the type of graph to display, the specification of the stations to be displayed (limited to stations to be analyzed), or the specification of the unit in data aggregation.

[0113] Next, the display screen creation unit 136 uses the target station and display conditions acquired in step S601 as keys to refer to the station dwell time data 118 in the data server 110 and extract the corresponding data (step S602).

[0114] Next, the display screen creation unit 136 aggregates the data extracted in step S602 according to the display conditions (step S603), plots it in the format specified by the display conditions, and generates a result display screen with the plotted graph embedded (step S604). The result display screen generated in step S604 is then distributed to the recipient device of the information distribution server 130 (for example, the user terminal 32) and displayed.

[0115] Furthermore, the information distribution server 130 may combine multiple display screen creation units 136 to generate the result display screen to be distributed, depending on the characteristics of the receiving device or the content of the information to be distributed. Specifically, for example, web server technology can be used in screen distribution, in which case the user can view the distributed information in a web browser running on the receiving device. Alternatively, a dedicated application running on the receiving device may be configured to create the result display screen to be displayed on that device using data transmitted from the information distribution server 130.

[0116] Figure 15 shows an example of a results display screen using a graph. The results display screen 220 shown in Figure 15 displays the number of people staying at each station by time of day for the selected stations to be analyzed, categorized into "users entering / users exiting / users transferring," in the form of a stacked bar graph, showing the changes in trends throughout the day.

[0117] Regarding the display of graphs on the results screen, various variations are possible. Specifically, in addition to displaying the actual number of visitors as shown in Figure 15, other methods include showing the relative proportion of users in each time slot, or displaying the breakdown ratio of each time slot by color, obtained by dividing the number of visitors per time slot by the total number of visitors for the day (the sum of the horizontal axis from "09:30" to "20:45" in Figure 15).

[0118] Furthermore, while the results display screen 220 shown in Figure 15 represents the trend in the number of visitors at each station using a line graph, the form of graphs available on the results display screen of this embodiment is not limited to this, and may be represented in the form of a pie chart or radar chart, etc. Also, graphs may be created separately for each station, or the system may have a function to divide the analysis period for the same station and display multiple graphs side by side for comparison.

[0119] Furthermore, the results display screen does not have to be based solely on the results of the station occupancy estimation process performed on the calculation server 120. For example, sales data from stores within the station premises may be obtained from an external system 33, and the number of station occupants and sales amount may be represented in a scatter plot for each station. In this case, it can be useful to identify stations with good or bad sales amount relative to the estimated number of occupants. Alternatively, a matrix bubble chart could be created with the analysis target station on the vertical axis and the departure or arrival station on the horizontal axis, where the size of the bubble at each grid point represents the number of occupants, and the color of the bubble represents attribute information such as the average age and average credit limit of users. In this way, the relationship between multiple analysis target stations and multiple arrival stations can be represented in a single figure (graph). Specifically, users can grasp at a glance how many occupants are coming from which station and heading to which station, and what age groups make up the majority of occupants. Furthermore, the above question, "Which station did you come from?" can be interpreted as "Which station do you live near?", and "Which station are you going to?" can be interpreted as "Where do you work?".

[0120] Figure 16 shows an example of a results display screen using a route map. The results display screen 230 shown in Figure 16 is a results display screen intended to provide an overview of the congestion levels of trains and stations in the entire metropolitan area being analyzed, and a route map 231 is placed on the screen. On the route map 231, trains running on each line are displayed with icons color-coded according to their degree of delay and congestion. Note that in Figure 16, which is a monochrome drawing, the color coding is represented by differences in hatching. The purpose of adopting a display format using a route map, as in the results display screen 230 of Figure 16, is to provide a screen that allows users to grasp the trend of the number of people staying at stations under analysis, while simultaneously viewing the congestion level and delay status of trains arriving at and departing from those stations.

[0121] On the results display screen 230, the route map 231 can be operated using an input interface such as a mouse or keyboard. For example, operations such as zooming in / out of the map screen using the scroll wheel button, or changing the display position of the map by dragging with the mouse, can be performed. In the route map 231, the placement of each route and each station may be determined based on actual spatial location information, or it may be determined by adjusting it as appropriate so that it fits on a single screen.

[0122] Furthermore, in large metropolitan areas, the number of routes is large, and it is anticipated that it will be difficult to list all routes due to screen space limitations. Therefore, it may be advisable to allow users to select which routes to display. Here, the color and size of the icons for trains in operation displayed on route map 231 should be changed according to the average or maximum number of passengers on the train, the number of seconds the train is delayed, etc. For example, different colors could be defined for several stages of the passenger occupancy rate, such as "0% to less than 50%", "50% to less than 100%", "100% to less than 150%", and "150% or more". It is desirable that the display format of these train icons and the content displayed for station occupants be freely configurable by the user. The selection of display content could be an interface that allows the user to select a single candidate, or an interface that allows the user to select multiple indicators simultaneously.

[0123] Furthermore, the results display screen 230 has a function that, when a train icon is clicked with a mouse or the like, displays a pop-up 232 showing the next station where passengers on the train are estimated to stay and the number of passengers staying there. The stations where passengers on the train will stay can be calculated by first referring to the train ID 1168, boarding station ID 1169, and alighting station ID 1170 included in the travel time data 116 to identify multiple trip IDs 1161 corresponding to the combination of train ID and station intervals, and then referring to the station stay time data 118 records that have trip ID 1181 corresponding to the identified trip IDs 1161, and aggregating the station where the passengers will stay (target station 1182) and the stay time (elapsed time from the start time 1183 to the end time 1184) in each record.

[0124] Specifically, Figure 16 shows the pop-up 232 that appears when you click on train number 101. This pop-up 232 displays not only which station passengers are estimated to stay at next, but also the duration of their stay. Specifically, according to pop-up 232 in Figure 16, it is estimated that of the passengers on train number 101 traveling between stations A1 and A2, 150 will stay at station A4 for 10 to 20 minutes, and 42 will stay at station A4 for 20 minutes or more.

[0125] Furthermore, the display screen creation unit 136 has a function for setting display conditions for the result display screen 230. When it receives display conditions entered by the user, or when it receives input operations from an input interface such as a mouse or keyboard, it recreates the result display screen 230 according to the received display conditions or input operations and delivers it to the device that sent the request. This is also the case for result display screens in graph format, such as the result display screen 220 shown in Figure 15.

[0126] As described above, the display screen creation unit 136 presents a results display screen 230 to the system administrator or railway operator, etc., which allows them to view the number of people staying at the station and their stay time estimated by the calculation server 120 in conjunction with the running status of the train 22. This can be used for passenger guidance on the train and for planning the placement of goods in shops within the station.

[0127] (5) Conclusion As described above, the station occupancy estimation system 10 according to this embodiment uses ticket gate passage data and timetable data collected and stored by the transportation operator (railway operator) to subdivide the movement of passengers using public transportation in terms of walking time, waiting time, transfer time, and boarding time, and can estimate the number of people staying at each station and the length of stay as potential demand that may be used at each station. With such a station occupancy estimation system 10, railway operators can take into account the trends of occupants when planning equipment upgrades or commercial facility development within stations. Furthermore, by analyzing the estimated number of occupants at each station in combination with attribute information of tickets such as gender, age, or departure and arrival stations of commuter passes, it is possible to support tenant opening plans in commercial facilities or product replacement plans in store operations. [Explanation of symbols]

[0128] 10 Station Stay Estimation System 21 Automatic ticket gates Train 22 31 Administrator terminal 32 User terminals 33 External Systems Networks 41, 42, 43 110 Data Server 111 Data Storage Unit (DB) 112 Transfer route data 113 Station Data 114 Departure and Arrival Data 115 Timetable Data 116. Time required data 118 Station Stay Time Data 120 Computing Servers 121 Network Interface (I / F) 122 Processors (CPU) 123 memory 124 Storage section 125 Overall Control Unit 126 Target Route List Extraction Unit 127 Time Simulation Unit 128. Calculation unit for duration of stay 130 Information distribution server 131 Network Interface (I / F) 132 Processors (CPU) 133 memory 134 Storage section 135 Management Screen Control Unit 136 Display screen creation section

Claims

1. A station occupancy estimation system that estimates the number of passengers who can stay at a designated analysis station among passengers using a specified means of transport, Departure and arrival data showing records of passengers passing through ticket gates at each station of the aforementioned means of transport, The aforementioned transportation means includes timetable data, A time simulation unit calculates, for each combination of departure and arrival stations and the mode of transport used for one or more routes including the aforementioned stations under analysis, the theoretical time required for a passenger to travel from the departure station to the arrival station, based on the departure and arrival data and the timetable data. For each of the aforementioned combinations, a stay time calculation unit calculates the actual time required for the passenger to enter the departure station and exit the arrival station based on the departure and arrival data, and estimates the passenger's stay time at the analysis target station from the difference between the actual time required and the theoretical time required for the same combination. Transfer route data that shows information about the routes that passengers can choose to take from any departure station to any arrival station, A target route list extraction unit extracts one or more routes including the analysis target station based on the aforementioned transfer route data, Equipped with, The aforementioned target route list extraction unit is capable of extracting routes that involve transfers between different flights. A station occupancy estimation system characterized by the following features.

2. When the aforementioned target route list extraction unit extracts multiple routes that include the stations to be analyzed, it determines the selection rate of each route according to a predetermined allocation ratio. The station occupancy estimation system according to feature 1.

3. The aforementioned stay time calculation unit estimates the stay time of passengers at the station under analysis, Based on the theoretical travel time configuration information calculated by the travel time simulation unit, the theoretical time when the passenger arrives at the analysis target station is set as the start time of stay. The end time of the stay is the time obtained by adding the difference between the actual duration and the theoretical duration to the start time of the stay. The station occupancy estimation system according to feature 1.

4. The stay time calculation unit adds the waiting time for the connecting train to the stay time if the station under analysis on the route is a transfer station to another service. The station occupancy estimation system according to feature 1.

5. The system further comprises a management screen control unit that provides a system management screen that allows the user to specify one or more of the aforementioned stations to be analyzed. The station occupancy estimation system according to feature 1.

6. The management screen control unit receives user operations on the system management screen to start, cancel, or display the estimation results of the estimated time spent. The station occupancy estimation system according to claim 5.

7. The system further includes a display screen creation unit that creates and provides a result display screen based on the estimated stay time results from the stay time calculation unit. The station occupancy estimation system according to feature 1.

8. When two or more stations are designated as targets for analysis and the estimated stay time is calculated, The display screen creation unit aggregates the estimated stay times for each of the stations under analysis and displays the number of passengers and their stay times at each station under analysis on the results display screen using a graph or route map. The station occupancy estimation system according to feature 7.

9. A method for estimating the number of passengers who can stay at a designated station for analysis, using a station occupancy estimation system, which estimates the number of passengers who can stay at a designated station for analysis among passengers using a specified means of transport, The aforementioned station occupancy estimation system is, Departure and arrival data showing records of passengers passing through ticket gates at each station of the aforementioned means of transport, The aforementioned transportation means includes timetable data, It includes transfer route data that shows information about the routes that a passenger can choose to take from any departure station to any arrival station, The station occupancy estimation system includes a theoretical travel time calculation step in which, for each combination of departure and arrival stations and the mode of transport used for one or more routes including the stations under analysis, the theoretical travel time information required for a passenger to travel from the departure station to the arrival station is calculated based on the departure and arrival data and the timetable data. The station occupancy estimation system calculates, for each combination, the actual time required for a passenger to enter the departure station and exit the arrival station based on the departure and arrival data, and estimates the passenger's stay time at the analysis target station from the difference between the actual time required and the theoretical time required for the same combination. The station occupancy estimation system includes a target route list extraction step of extracting one or more routes that include the target station based on the transfer route data, Equipped with, The aforementioned step of extracting the list of target routes makes it possible to extract routes that involve connecting between different flights. A method for estimating the number of people staying at a train station, characterized by the following features.

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