Lightning strike risk calculation device and lightning strike risk display system

Abstract

A lightning-strike-danger-level derivation device according to the present invention derives a lightning-strike danger level for each of a plurality of regions defined in the form of a mesh on the basis of latitudes and longitudes. The lightning-strike-danger-level derivation device is provided with: an echo-intensity derivation unit that derives an altitude distribution of echo intensities for each of the plurality of regions by using observation data acquired from a meteorological radar; a temperature derivation unit that derives an altitude distribution of temperatures for each of the plurality of regions by using observation data acquired from a meteorological observation device; a feature derivation unit that derives features used to derive the lightning-strike danger level; and a lightning-strike-danger-level derivation unit that derives the lightning-strike danger level by using the features. The feature derivation unit derives a cumulative echo intensity for each of the plurality of regions, the cumulative echo intensity being a partial or entire cumulative value of echo intensities along the vertical direction. The lightning-strike-danger-level derivation unit derives an altitude distribution of lightning-strike danger levels for each of the plurality of regions by using the cumulative echo intensity and the altitude distribution of temperatures.

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a lightning strike risk derivation device and a lightning strike risk display system. [Background technology]

[0002] Aircraft are frequently struck by lightning throughout the year. While a lightning strike on an aircraft is unlikely to directly lead to a serious accident, it can damage the aircraft's exterior and other components, and it is said that repairs to such damage cost hundreds of millions of yen annually. Furthermore, inspecting and repairing aircraft struck by lightning takes time, affecting flight schedules regardless of the extent of the damage. Therefore, in addition to the costs associated with repairing the damage caused by the lightning strike, indirect costs also increase.

[0003] Aircraft operations are broadly divided into takeoff / landing phases and cruising phases. During the cruising phase, lightning strikes are less likely to occur at the flight altitude, and evasive action is easier to take, so lightning strikes are infrequent during the cruising phase. On the other hand, lightning strikes are more likely to occur at flight altitudes during takeoff and landing, so avoiding them is crucial. To address this, information from a lightning monitoring system called LIDEN (Lightning Detection Network system), operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency, is widely used. Furthermore, there are methods for evaluating lightning strike risk (lightning strike risk) that use observation data from weather radar and lightning strike data to assess the risk of lightning strike risk (Patent Document 1). [Prior art documents] [Patent Documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2022-651 [Overview of the project] [Problems that the invention aims to solve]

[0005] However, while conventional technologies can evaluate the risk of lightning strikes in a two-dimensional plane, and allow for evasive action in the horizontal direction, their application is difficult during the takeoff and landing phases, where evasive action itself is challenging. Therefore, there is a need for a method to derive three-dimensional lightning strike risk that allows for evasive action in both the horizontal and vertical directions.

[0006] This invention has been made in view of the above-mentioned problems, and provides a lightning risk deriving device and a lightning risk display system capable of deriving three-dimensional lightning risk. [Means for solving the problem]

[0007] The present invention relates to a lightning strike risk derivation device for deriving the lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions divided in a mesh-like manner by latitude and longitude, comprising: an echo intensity derivation unit that derives the altitude distribution of echo intensity for each of the multiple regions using observation data acquired from a weather radar; a temperature derivation unit that derives the altitude distribution of temperature for each of the multiple regions using observation data acquired from a weather observation device; a feature quantity derivation unit that derives feature quantities used for deriving the lightning strike risk; and a lightning strike risk derivation unit that derives the lightning strike risk using the feature quantities, wherein the feature quantity derivation unit derives an integrated echo intensity, which is the cumulative value of the echo intensity in part or all of the vertical direction for each of the multiple regions, and the lightning strike risk derivation unit derives the altitude distribution of the lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions using the integrated echo intensity and the altitude distribution of temperature. [Effects of the Invention]

[0008] According to the present invention, it is possible to provide a lightning strike risk derivation device and a lightning strike risk display system that can derive three-dimensional lightning strike risk. [Brief explanation of the drawing]

[0009] [Figure 1] Figure 1 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the lightning strike risk derivation device according to this embodiment. [Figure 2] Figure 2 is a flowchart showing a process of deriving the distribution of echo intensity. [Figure 3] Figure 3 is a flowchart showing a process of deriving each feature quantity. [Figure 4] Figure 4 is a flowchart showing a process of deriving the distribution of air temperature. [Figure 5] FIG. 5(a) is a diagram showing the altitude difference between adjacent isobaric surfaces derived by the altimetry formula and the data necessary for deriving the altitude difference, and FIG. 5(b) is a diagram showing the altimetry formula. [Figure 6] Figure 6 is a flowchart showing a process of deriving the lightning strike risk degree, which is two-dimensional information, using each feature quantity. [Figure 7] Figure 7 is a flowchart showing a process of deriving the altitude distribution of the lightning strike risk degree using the lightning strike risk degree, which is two-dimensional information, and the distribution of air temperature.

Mode for Carrying Out the Invention

[0010] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. In all the drawings, the same components are denoted by the same reference numerals, and the description will be omitted as appropriate.

[0011] <Regarding the Outline of the Lightning Strike Risk Degree Derivation Device According to the Present Embodiment> First, the outline of the lightning strike risk degree derivation device according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 1. FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the lightning strike risk degree derivation device according to the present embodiment. As shown in FIG. 1, the lightning strike risk degree derivation device 1 according to the present embodiment includes an echo intensity derivation unit 10, a feature quantity derivation unit 20, an air temperature derivation unit 30, and a lightning strike risk degree derivation unit 40.

[0012] The echo intensity derivation unit 10 derives the altitude distribution of the echo intensity (in this embodiment, for example, at 100 m intervals) for each of a plurality of regions divided into a mesh shape by latitude and longitude (in this embodiment, both latitude and longitude are divided at 0.005 degree intervals) from the observation data acquired from a plurality of weather radars. In this embodiment, the weather radar employed is a C-band radar under the jurisdiction of the Japan Meteorological Agency that irradiates the atmosphere with a single radio wave in the C-band and observes the intensity of the reflected wave (hereinafter referred to as echo intensity). Also, the echo intensity, which is the observation data obtained from each weather radar, is the distribution of the echo intensity in a spherical coordinate system centered on each weather radar, and this distribution is obtained as the echo intensity for each space specified by the elevation angle, azimuth angle, and straight-line distance. Therefore, in order to derive the altitude distribution of the echo intensity for each of the above-mentioned plurality of regions, it is necessary to process the echo intensity obtained from each weather radar. Details of the processing related to the echo intensity derivation unit 10 including this processing will be described later using FIG. 2. In the following description, the altitude distribution of the echo intensity for each of the above-mentioned plurality of regions will be simply referred to as the "distribution of echo intensity". Further, each region constituting the above-mentioned plurality of regions is referred to as a "unit plane", and the space divided every 100 m in each unit plane is referred to as a "unit space". Also, unless otherwise specified, the echo intensity refers to the echo intensity corresponding to one unit space. In the present invention, the size of the above-mentioned plurality of regions is not particularly limited. However, in this embodiment, the above-mentioned plurality of regions are regions having a horizontal width that covers the entire territory of Japan including the waters off the coast of Japan. Further, the upper surface altitude of the unit space located at the highest altitude among the unit spaces provided in each unit plane is not particularly limited. However, in this embodiment, the upper surface altitude is set to 15,000 m in consideration of the detectable range by the weather radar. This upper surface altitude corresponds to the upper limit of the "predetermined altitude range" in the present invention, and the altitude (elevation) of the ground surface is set as the lower limit of the "predetermined altitude range". Further, in the description according to this embodiment, unless otherwise specified, the "altitude distribution" refers to the altitude distribution within the "predetermined altitude range". Also, the "altitude" in the present invention refers to the height based on the mean sea level of Tokyo Bay.

[0013] The echo intensity (an example of so-called precipitation intensity) is an index for evaluating the amount of raindrops contained in the space corresponding to the echo intensity, and its unit is dBZ. Generally, there is a positive correlation between the echo intensity and the lightning risk. Furthermore, some or all of the above weather radars may employ a C-band multi-parameter radar (C-band MP radar) that emits two types of radio waves in the C-band (horizontal polarization and vertical polarization) and observes the echo intensity, an X-band radar that emits a single radio wave in the X-band, an X-band multi-parameter radar (X-band MP radar) that emits horizontal and vertical polarization in the X-band, or a combination thereof.

[0014] The feature quantity derivation unit 20 uses the echo intensity distribution derived by the echo intensity derivation unit 10 and the temperature distribution derived by the temperature derivation unit 30 (details described later) to derive feature quantities used for deriving the lightning strike risk for each unit surface. In this embodiment, the feature quantities include the integrated value of echo intensity in the vertical direction (over the entire predetermined altitude range) (hereinafter referred to as "VIR") and the integrated value of echo intensity in the vertical direction for a unit space within the predetermined altitude range where the temperature falls within a specific temperature range (hereinafter referred to as "MTR"). Since both of these feature quantities are integrated values ​​in the vertical direction, they are two-dimensional information that does not contain altitude information (hereinafter simply referred to as "two-dimensional information"). Details of the derivation process for these feature quantities will be described later with reference to Figure 3. Here, the specific temperature range is the temperature range in which cloud charging is considered likely to occur based on past cases of lightning strikes on aircraft. In this embodiment, the specific temperature range is set to the range of -9°C to -11°C. Furthermore, the lightning risk derivation unit 40 may derive the lightning risk using VIR instead of MTR among these feature quantities, in which case it is not necessary to derive MTR. Similarly, the lightning risk derivation unit 40 may derive the lightning risk using MTR instead of VIR among these feature quantities, in which case it is not necessary to derive VIR. In other words, the lightning risk derivation unit 40 only needs to derive the lightning risk using at least one of VIR and MTR.

[0015] The temperature derivation unit 30 derives the altitude distribution of temperature for each unit plane from observation data acquired from multiple weather observation devices and analysis results of hourly atmospheric analysis provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The interval of divisions for the altitude distribution of temperature can be the same as the interval of divisions for echo intensity. This prevents a decrease in the accuracy of estimating the risk of lightning strikes while suppressing the amount of computation. Specifically, in this embodiment, the interval is 100m, similar to that for echo intensity. In this embodiment, multiple meteorological observation devices are employed for ground-level meteorological observations by meteorological observatories, and the observation data acquired from each meteorological observation device includes temperature and atmospheric pressure. Furthermore, in deriving the altitude distribution of temperature, the altitude at which each meteorological observation device is installed is also referenced. In addition, from the analysis results of hourly atmospheric analysis, temperatures corresponding to multiple isobaric surfaces (in this embodiment, the 1000 hPa surface, the 975 hPa surface, the 950 hPa surface, etc., and the number is not particularly limited as long as it covers the upper surface altitude of 15000 m related to the unit space) are derived for each unit surface. Details of the process for deriving the altitude distribution of temperature will be described later with reference to Figures 4 and 5. Furthermore, some or all of the above-mentioned weather observation devices may be different from those described above, as long as they are capable of acquiring temperature, atmospheric pressure, and altitude. Similarly, hourly atmospheric analysis may be replaced with another atmospheric analysis, such as a 30-minute atmospheric analysis, as long as it is capable of deriving the temperature corresponding to each of the multiple isobaric surfaces for each unit surface. Furthermore, in the description of this embodiment, the altitude distribution of temperature for each unit surface is simply referred to as the "temperature distribution."

[0016] The lightning strike risk derivation unit 40 uses the feature quantities (VIR, MTR), which are two-dimensional information derived by the feature quantity derivation unit 20, and the temperature distribution derived by the temperature derivation unit 30 to derive the altitude distribution of lightning strike risk for each unit plane. In this embodiment, the evaluation of the risk of being struck by lightning is divided into three levels, "high," "medium," and "low," in descending order of risk. The details of the derivation process will be described later using Figures 6 and 7. However, the number of levels for evaluating the risk of being struck by lightning is not limited to three; any number of levels, two or more, can be adopted. Furthermore, as will be described later, this embodiment employs a method of deriving the height distribution of lightning strike risk by masking the two-dimensional information of lightning strike risk using a mask temperature range, but is not limited to this. In other words, any method that converts the lightning strike risk, which is two-dimensional information, into three-dimensional information (height distribution of lightning strike risk) by re-evaluating the lightning strike risk using the temperature distribution may be adopted. Furthermore, as will be described later, in this embodiment, the lightning strike risk is derived first using two-dimensional feature data, and then the altitude distribution of the lightning strike risk is derived using the temperature distribution, but this is not the only method. For example, by using two-dimensional feature data and the temperature distribution together, the altitude distribution of the lightning strike risk may be derived directly without first deriving the two-dimensional lightning strike risk.

[0017] Thus, the lightning strike risk derivation device 1, with the functional configuration described above, realizes the derivation of an unprecedented altitude distribution of lightning strike risk (three-dimensional lightning strike risk), and utilizing this altitude distribution of lightning strike risk contributes to deterring lightning strikes on aircraft.

[0018] Furthermore, as shown in Figure 1, the present invention may also provide a lightning strike risk display system 100 comprising the lightning strike risk derivation device 1 described above and a lightning strike risk display device 50 that displays the height distribution of the lightning strike risk derived by the lightning strike risk derivation unit 40 in three dimensions. Any device capable of displaying the intensity distribution of lightning strike risk in three dimensions may be used for the lightning strike risk display device 50, such as a tablet terminal or a stationary terminal. This allows aircraft pilots and air traffic controllers to visually recognize the altitude distribution of lightning strike risk and encourages them to determine flight paths (especially takeoff and landing routes) that take this altitude distribution into account. Furthermore, other examples of utilizing the altitude distribution of lightning strike risk include systems that automatically determine the flight path of aircraft or other flying objects or candidate flight paths by referring to the altitude distribution of lightning strike risk, and are not limited to the lightning strike risk display system 100 described above.

[0019] <Regarding the process for deriving the distribution of echo intensity> Next, using Figure 2, we will explain in detail the process of deriving the altitude distribution of echo intensity for each unit plane (echo intensity distribution) from the echo intensity acquired from each weather radar. Figure 2 is a flowchart showing the process for deriving the echo intensity distribution, which is performed by the echo intensity derivation unit 10.

[0020] As shown in Figure 2, in the first step, step S10, for each C-band radar, the echo intensity acquired within its detection range is converted into an altitude distribution of echo intensity for each unit plane. Specifically, the distribution of echo intensity in a spherical coordinate system centered on the C-band radar described above is first transformed into the distribution of echo intensity in a Cartesian coordinate system centered on the Earth, using the latitude and longitude where the C-band radar is installed. This transformation result is then converted into the altitude distribution of echo intensity (echo intensity distribution) for each unit plane.

[0021] In step S11, the simple average of the conversion results for each C-band radar derived in step S10 is derived. Specifically, for each unit space, we derive the simple average of the conversion results for each C-band radar.

[0022] In step S12, the simple average of the echo intensity for each unit space derived in step S11 is smoothed. Specifically, the echo intensity in the target unit space is defined as the simple average of the echo intensities of 500 unit spaces, which are defined by 10 unit spaces in the latitudinal direction, 10 unit spaces in the longitudinal direction, and 5 unit spaces in the altitude direction, including the unit space in question. This allows for smoothing of changes in echo intensity within a unit space. This, in turn, contributes to smoothing of changes in each feature within that unit space. Furthermore, in order to achieve this effect, the range of the unit space (including the target unit space) used for smoothing the simple average of echo intensity is not particularly limited, and it is sufficient if it consists of multiple unit spaces in the latitudinal, longitudinal, and altitude directions.

[0023] <Regarding the process for deriving each feature> Next, using Figure 3, we will explain in detail the process of deriving each feature (VIR, MTR) from the distribution of echo intensity and temperature. Figure 3 shows a flowchart illustrating the process for deriving each feature, which is performed by the feature derivation unit 20.

[0024] As shown in Figure 3, in the first step, step S20, the integrated value (VIR) of the echo intensity in the vertical direction (over the entire predetermined altitude range) is derived for each unit plane. In step S21, for each unit plane, the vertically integrated value of the echo intensity for a unit space within a predetermined altitude range where the temperature falls within a specific temperature range (first temperature range) is derived. Specifically, the first temperature range is -9°C to -11°C. In step S21, there may be cases where the unit space falling within the specific temperature range is discontinuous in the vertical direction; in such cases, all echo intensities corresponding to that discontinuous unit space are integrated.

[0025] <Regarding the process for deriving the temperature distribution> Next, using Figures 4 and 5, we will explain in detail the process of deriving the altitude distribution of temperature (temperature distribution) for each unit surface from the observation data acquired from each meteorological observation device and the analysis results of hourly atmospheric analysis. Figure 4 is a flowchart showing the process for deriving the temperature distribution, which is performed by the temperature derivation unit 30. Figure 5(a) shows the altitude difference of adjacent isobaric surfaces derived by the altitude measurement formula and the data necessary to derive said altitude difference, and Figure 5(b) shows the altitude measurement formula.

[0026] As shown in Figure 4, in the first step, step S30, a Voronoi partition is performed using the installation locations of multiple weather observation devices. Specifically, ignoring the elevation differences between the installation locations of multiple weather observation devices, the nearest neighbor region of each generator point (hereinafter referred to as the "divided region") is derived by drawing perpendicular bisectors on the straight lines connecting adjacent generator points (locations of weather observation devices).

[0027] In step S31, the ground data corresponding to the unit plane (altitude Z0, temperature T0, pressure P0) is set using the results of the Voronoi partitioning in step S30. Specifically, for each unit plane, the ground data from the weather observation device corresponding to the divided region containing the center of the unit plane is set as the ground data for that unit plane.

[0028] In step S32, the analysis results of the hourly atmospheric analysis (temperatures corresponding to each of the multiple isobaric surfaces) are converted into data for each unit surface. Specifically, for each unit plane, the analysis results of the unit region (a region demarcated by longitude 0.0625 degrees and latitude 0.05 degrees) related to hourly atmospheric analysis that includes the center of the unit plane are set as the data for that unit plane.

[0029] In step S33, the altitude distribution of temperature for each unit surface is derived using ground data, the conversion results of hourly atmospheric analysis (temperatures corresponding to each of the multiple isobaric surfaces corresponding to each unit surface), and altitude measurement formulas.

[0030] Specifically, the altitude measurement formula shown in Figure 5(b) is used, along with the average temperature T(K) of two adjacent isobaric surfaces and the atmospheric pressure (P) of those two isobaric surfaces. m , P n The input is the unit (hPa) for both values, and the thickness of the two isobaric surfaces h m,n Derive (m). Then, add thickness h to the altitude Z0 of the ground data. m,n By sequentially adding these values, the altitude Z of the unit plane being targeted in this study is obtained. n and temperature T nThe corresponding relationship can be derived. In the hypsometric formula, R is the gas constant of dry air, and g is the acceleration due to gravity (m / s 2 ). For example, when deriving the thickness h of an isobaric surface 1,2 , for the hypsometric formula, the average temperature T = (temperature T1 + temperature T2) / 2, and the atmospheric pressure P m = atmospheric pressure P1 (1000 hPa), and the atmospheric pressure P n = atmospheric pressure P2 (975 hPa) are input. In particular, when deriving the thickness h from the ground to the nearest isobaric surface 0,1 , using the ground data (temperature T0, atmospheric pressure P0), for the hypsometric formula, the average temperature T = (temperature T0 + temperature T1) / 2, and the atmospheric pressure P m = atmospheric pressure P0, and the atmospheric pressure P n = atmospheric pressure P1 (1000 hPa) are input. Then, by adding the derived thickness h 0,1 to the altitude Z0, the altitude Z1 of the current target unit surface is derived. Furthermore, by adding the thickness h 1,2 to the altitude Z1, the altitude Z2 is derived, and so on. By successively adding the thicknesses of the isobaric surfaces, the altitudes of each isobaric surface are derived. As described above, the altitude distribution of temperature in this embodiment is the temperature of the unit space divided by 100 m intervals for each unit surface. Therefore, in this embodiment, the temperature of the unit space is derived by linear interpolation using the altitude and temperature corresponding to each isobaric surface derived using the hypsometric formula.

[0031] Thus, in this embodiment, when deriving the altitude distribution of temperature by the hypsometric formula for each unit surface, the ground data corresponding to each unit surface is determined by Voronoi division using the installation points of a plurality of meteorological observation devices (for ground meteorological observations by meteorological agencies). According to this, the ground data of the nearest meteorological observation device is corresponded to each unit surface, and the accuracy of the altitude distribution of temperature in each unit surface can be improved. And the improvement of this system contributes to the improvement of the accuracy of the altitude distribution of lightning strike risk.

[0032] In this embodiment, the temperature derivation unit 30 performs a process to determine ground data corresponding to each unit plane by Voronoi tessellation using the installation locations of multiple weather observation devices. However, the weather observation devices corresponding to each unit plane may be predetermined by Voronoi tessellation using the installation locations of multiple weather observation devices. In other words, the temperature derivation unit 30 does not need to perform a process to determine ground data corresponding to each unit plane by Voronoi tessellation using the installation locations of multiple weather observation devices.

[0033] Furthermore, in cases where there are abnormalities in multiple weather observation devices (such as abnormalities in acquired ground data or inability to acquire ground data itself), the temperature derivation unit 30 may perform a process to determine ground data corresponding to each unit plane by Voronoi partitioning using the installation locations of the multiple weather observation devices excluding the one with the abnormality. However, if such a weather observation device malfunctions, the usual procedure is to determine the ground data corresponding to each unit plane by Voronoi partitioning using the locations of multiple weather observation devices, including the malfunctioning device, and then replace the ground data for the unit plane corresponding to the malfunctioning device with past ground data for that unit plane (especially the most recent normal ground data).

[0034] <Regarding the process for deriving the altitude distribution of lightning strike risk> Next, using Figures 6 and 7, we will explain in detail the process of deriving the altitude distribution of lightning strike risk using each feature (VIR, MTR) and temperature distribution. Figure 6 is a flowchart showing the process of deriving the lightning strike risk, which is two-dimensional information, using each feature quantity, and Figure 7 is a flowchart showing the process of deriving the height distribution of the lightning strike risk, which is two-dimensional information, using the distribution of the lightning strike risk and temperature. Both of these processes are performed by the lightning strike risk derivation unit 40.

[0035] As shown in Figure 6, in the first step, step S40, the following unit plane is set as the symmetric plane. Here, the target surface refers to the unit surface that will be referenced in subsequent processing. The next unit surface refers to the next unit surface in the sequence for which all unit surfaces constituting the multiple regions described above are to be the target surface. When step S40 is executed for the first time, the first unit surface in that sequence is set as the target surface. The same applies to Figure 7.

[0036] In step S41, it is determined whether the target surface is within 10 km of a unit surface where the MTR is 15 dBZ or higher. If this condition is met, the process proceeds to step S42; otherwise, the process proceeds to step S44. In step S42, it is determined whether the target surface is within 10 km of a unit surface where the VIR is 25 dBZ or higher. If this condition is met, the process proceeds to step S43; otherwise, the process proceeds to step S44. In step S43, the lightning strike risk (two-dimensional information) for the target surface is set to "High". The "distance from the unit plane" mentioned above is the distance from the center of that unit plane, and this distance is derived by referring to the latitude and longitude of the center of the unit plane and the latitude and longitude of the center of the corresponding target plane.

[0037] In step S44, it is determined whether the target surface is within 10 km of a unit surface where the MTR is 15 dBZ or higher. If this condition is met, the process proceeds to step S45; otherwise, the process proceeds to step S46. In step S45, the lightning strike risk level for the target surface is set to "medium". In step S46, the lightning strike risk level for the target surface is set to "low". In step S47, it is determined whether processing for all unit surfaces has been completed. If this condition is met, the process shown in Figure 6 is terminated. If the condition is not met, the process returns to step S40. In addition, although the above-described process (steps S41 to S45) includes the same determination process (steps S41 and S44), the number of times this determination process is executed may be limited to one. This can be achieved, for example, by setting the lightning risk level of the target surface to "medium" when the conditions related to the same determination process are met, then executing the determination process in step S42 for the target surface with a lightning risk level of "medium," and updating the lightning risk level of the target surface for which the conditions related to the determination process are met to "high." Furthermore, as a method for limiting the execution of the same determination process to one in the above-described process (steps S41 to S45), the process shown in Figure 6 may be used, in which step S45 is executed if the conditions related to step 42 are not met, and step S46 is executed if the conditions related to step S41 are not met.

[0038] Next, as shown in Figure 7, in the first step, step S50, the following unit plane is set as the target plane. In step S51, a mask temperature range is set according to the season. The lightning risk derivation unit 40 stores information indicating multiple seasons and the mask temperature range associated with each season in a storage means (not shown). The temperature ranges of the mask temperature ranges for each season differ from one another, but some overlap in temperature ranges is permitted. Specifically, during winter (October to March), the mask temperature range is set to -10°C to 0°C, and during summer (April to September), the mask temperature range is set to -10°C to +5°C. These mask temperature ranges are derived from past lightning strike incidents. When the lightning strike risk derivation unit 40 receives input specifying a date or season, it refers to the storage means to obtain and set information indicating the corresponding mask temperature range.

[0039] In step S52, the lightning strike risk (two-dimensional information) of the target surface is set to the lightning strike risk of the unit space corresponding to the temperature within the mask temperature range set in step S51. In step S53, the lightning risk level for the unit space corresponding to the temperature outside the mask temperature range set in step S51 is set to "low". As a result, the lightning risk level for the corresponding unit space is masked by the mask temperature range (second temperature range). In step S54, it is determined whether processing for all unit surfaces has been completed. If this condition is met, the process shown in Figure 7 is terminated; otherwise, the process returns to step S50. In this embodiment, as described above, for each unit space of a single unit surface, the lightning risk of that unit space is set by referring to the temperature of that unit space and determining whether the temperature is within or outside the mask temperature range. However, this is not limited to this. For example, a unit space corresponding to the lower limit of the mask temperature range (if there are multiple, the one with the lowest altitude, hereinafter referred to as the "lower limit unit space") and a unit space corresponding to the upper limit of the mask temperature range (if there are multiple, the one with the highest altitude, hereinafter referred to as the "upper limit unit space") may be derived, and the lightning risk of the target surface may be set for all of these unit spaces and the unit spaces between them. This is because, considering the temperature lapse rate, the temperature of the unit space between the lower limit unit space and the upper limit unit space corresponds to the temperature range (mask temperature range) determined by the temperature of the lower limit unit space and the temperature of the upper limit unit space.

[0040] Thus, in this embodiment, the two-dimensional information of the lightning strike risk is first derived using two-dimensional feature quantities (VIR, MTR), and then the altitude distribution of the lightning strike risk (three-dimensional information of the lightning strike risk) is derived using the temperature distribution. In particular, the threshold values ​​used when deriving the two-dimensional information of the lightning strike risk (threshold values ​​related to steps S41, S42, and S44) are threshold values ​​derived using past aircraft lightning strike cases (combinations of the flight paths of past lightning-struck aircraft and the weather conditions at that time). According to this method, when deriving the altitude distribution of lightning strike risk, it is possible to reduce the number of past aircraft lightning strike case samples required when determining the threshold for deriving the lightning strike risk, which is two-dimensional information, and also improve the accuracy of the threshold itself. The above threshold may be changed as appropriate based on future data collected on aircraft lightning strikes, or by taking into account meteorological parameters other than echo intensity.

[0041] As mentioned above, when deriving the lightning strike risk for two-dimensional information, it is acceptable to use either VIR or MTR and not the other. Specifically, when VIR is used and MTR is not used to derive the lightning strike risk of two-dimensional information, steps S41, S44, and S45 should be deleted in the process shown in Figure 6, and step S42 should be executed after step S40, and if the determination condition related to step S42 is not satisfied, step S46 should be executed. In this modified example, if the determination condition related to step S42 is satisfied, step S43 should be executed. On the other hand, if MTR is used and VIR is not used when deriving the lightning strike risk of two-dimensional information, steps S42, S44, and S45 can be deleted in the process shown in Figure 6, and the system can be configured so that step S43 is executed if the determination condition related to step S41 is satisfied, and step S46 is executed if the determination condition related to step S41 is not satisfied. In these modified examples, the lightning strike risk level for two-dimensional information is divided into two stages: "high" and "low." However, by adding another threshold to the current single threshold for the feature quantity used (either VIR or MTR), the two-dimensional lightning strike risk level can be divided into three stages: "high," "medium," and "low," similar to this embodiment.

[0042] Furthermore, as described above, in this embodiment, the mask temperature range used to derive the height distribution of lightning strike risk is set to a temperature range corresponding to the season. This allows for improved accuracy in the distribution of lightning strike risk levels. In this embodiment, the switching of the mask temperature zone may be achieved by referring to meteorological conditions such as temperature and pressure patterns. Furthermore, the mask temperature zone may be switched not only between winter and summer, but also across all four seasons. Furthermore, the mask temperature zone may be determined according to the latitude, climate, and topography of the area for which the altitude distribution of lightning risk is to be derived.

[0043] Furthermore, as mentioned above, the mask temperature range may change depending on the parameters described above (e.g., season), but in any case, it is permissible for it to partially overlap with the specified temperature range (minus 9°C to minus 11°C) described above. In particular, the lower limit of the mask temperature range (which is constant regardless of the season and is minus 10°C) is included in the specified temperature range. According to this, when deriving the altitude distribution of lightning risk using MTR in addition to VIR, it is possible to increase the influence of the temperature range around -10°C, where clouds are prone to becoming charged.

[0044] The lightning strike risk derivation device according to this embodiment has been described above with reference to the drawings, but these are examples of the present invention, and various other configurations can be adopted. In particular, the input data to the echo intensity derivation unit 10 and the temperature derivation unit 30 described above may be prediction data. Furthermore, the above embodiments can be combined as appropriate without departing from the spirit of the present invention.

[0045] <Regarding modifications to the process for deriving the distribution of lightning strike risk levels> The following modifications may be adopted for the process of deriving the above-mentioned distribution of lightning strike risk levels. First, the first modification adds a process immediately before step S47 in the process shown in Figure 6 to determine whether the altitude of a unit space on the target surface (the altitude of the vertical center in that unit space) is less than 1000m, if the temperature included in the specified temperature range (minus 9°C to minus 11°C) is met, and if this condition is met, the lightning strike risk of the target surface is overwritten to "low", and if the condition is not met, the lightning strike risk of the target surface set up to that point (set in steps S41 to S46) is maintained. This is because, in the statistics of natural lightning strikes, there are fewer lightning strikes when the specified temperature range is below an altitude of 1000m. This allows for improved accuracy in the distribution of lightning strike risk levels. Furthermore, the execution location and content of the processing added in the explanation of the first modification are not limited to the above, as long as they are configured so that the lightning strike risk for all unit spaces corresponding to each unit space (unit spaces above the unit space) where the altitude of the unit space of temperature included in the specific temperature range is less than 1000m becomes "low". In addition, the threshold (altitude of 1000m) related to the first modification may be changed as appropriate based on lightning strike cases of aircraft collected in the future. Furthermore, when adopting the first modification, the type of feature quantity referenced in deriving the lightning strike risk of the two-dimensional information does not matter. That is, the first modification can be adopted in any case, whether both VIR and MTR are used as feature quantities, only VIR is used, or only MTR is used. The same applies to the second modification described later.

[0046] Next, the second modification adds a process to set the lightning strike risk for a unit space below the cloud base to "low" immediately before step S54 in the process shown in Figure 7. This is also based on the fact that lightning strikes are less frequent at altitudes below the cloud base in past cases of lightning strikes on aircraft. The cloud base refers to the lowest altitude within the vertical range where clouds exist, and in this modification, it is derived using information (cloud cover, altitude, relative humidity, temperature, etc.) obtained from numerical weather prediction models such as mesoscale models (MSM) and localized models (LFM) provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Furthermore, "cloud" in this modification refers to a collection of water droplets or ice crystals present in the atmosphere, and there are no particular limitations on their size, but for example, it refers to those of about 0.001 mm to 0.02 mm. This also improves the accuracy of the distribution of lightning strike risk levels. Furthermore, the execution location and content of the processing added in the explanation of the second modification are not limited to those described above, as long as they are configured so that the lightning strike risk for all unit spaces below the cloud base is "low".

[0047] This embodiment encompasses the following technical concepts. (1) A lightning strike risk derivation device that derives the lightning strike risk for each of several regions divided into a mesh-like area by latitude and longitude, An echo intensity derivation unit that uses observation data acquired from weather radar to derive the altitude distribution of echo intensity in a predetermined altitude range for each of the multiple regions, A temperature derivation unit that uses observation data acquired from a weather observation device to derive the altitude distribution of temperature in the predetermined altitude range for each of the multiple regions, A feature quantity derivation unit that derives feature quantities used to derive the lightning strike risk level, A lightning strike risk derivation unit that derives the lightning strike risk using the aforementioned feature quantities, Equipped with, The feature quantity derivation unit derives, for each of the plurality of regions, an integrated echo intensity which is the integrated value of the echo intensity in at least a part of the predetermined altitude range, The lightning strike risk derivation unit uses the accumulated echo intensity and the altitude distribution of temperature to derive the altitude distribution of lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions. A device for deriving the degree of lightning strike risk, characterized by the above features. (2) The feature quantity derivation unit uses the altitude distribution of temperature to derive a specific temperature zone integrated echo intensity, which is the integrated value of the echo intensity corresponding to the first temperature range among the predetermined altitude ranges, for each of the plurality of regions. The lightning strike risk derivation unit derives the height distribution of lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions using at least the cumulative echo intensity of the specific temperature range. The lightning risk derivation device described in (1) above, characterized in that (3) The feature quantity derivation unit derives, for each of the plurality of regions, the vertical integrated echo intensity, which is the integrated value of the echo intensity over the entire predetermined altitude range, The lightning strike risk derivation unit derives the height distribution of lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions using at least the vertically integrated echo intensity. A lightning strike risk derivation device according to (1) or (2) above, characterized in that it is the same as described above. (4) The lightning strike risk derivation unit uses the feature quantities derived by the feature quantity derivation unit to derive a lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions that does not include altitude information, and uses the derived lightning strike risk and the altitude distribution of temperature to derive the altitude distribution of the lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions. In the lightning strike risk derivation unit, an algorithm derived using past lightning strike cases is used to derive the lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions, which does not include altitude information. A lightning strike risk derivation device according to any one of (1) to (3) above, characterized in that (5) The lightning strike risk derivation unit, in deriving the height distribution of lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions, masks the derived lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions within a second temperature range. The lightning risk derivation device described in (4) above, characterized in that (6) The aforementioned second temperature range is determined according to the season. The lightning risk derivation device described in (5) above, characterized in that (7) The weather observation devices are located in multiple locations within the range comprising the multiple regions, The temperature derivation unit is, The temperature, atmospheric pressure, and altitude corresponding to each of the multiple regions are derived from the weather observation device. In addition to the derived temperature, pressure, and altitude, the altitude distribution of temperature for each of the aforementioned regions is derived using a height measurement formula that utilizes the temperatures at multiple isobaric surfaces derived from the results of atmospheric analysis. The temperature, pressure, and altitude corresponding to any of the aforementioned regions are determined by the meteorological observation device corresponding to that arbitrary region, and the meteorological observation device corresponding to that arbitrary region is determined by a Voronoi tessellation using the installation locations of the meteorological observation devices. A lightning strike risk derivation device according to any one of (1) to (6) above, characterized in that (8) A lightning risk deriving device described in any one of (1) to (7) above, Image display device and Equipped with, The image display device displays in three dimensions the height distribution of the lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions derived by the lightning strike risk derivation device. A lightning strike risk indicator system characterized by the following features.

[0048] This application claims priority based on Japanese Patent Application No. 2022-106893, filed on 1 July 2022, and incorporates all of its disclosures herein. [Explanation of Symbols]

[0049] 1 Lightning risk derivation device 10 Echo intensity extraction unit 20 Feature Derivation Unit 30 Temperature output section 40 Lightning risk derivation part 50 Lightning risk indicator 100 Lightning Strike Risk Display System

Claims

1. A lightning strike risk derivation device that derives the lightning strike risk for each of several regions divided into a mesh-like area by latitude and longitude, An echo intensity derivation unit that uses observation data acquired from weather radar to derive the altitude distribution of echo intensity in a predetermined altitude range for each of the multiple regions, A temperature derivation unit that uses observation data acquired from a weather observation device to derive the altitude distribution of temperature in the predetermined altitude range for each of the multiple regions, A feature quantity derivation unit that derives feature quantities used to derive the lightning strike risk level, A lightning strike risk derivation unit that derives the lightning strike risk using the aforementioned feature quantities, Equipped with, The feature quantity derivation unit derives, for each of the plurality of regions, an integrated echo intensity which is the integrated value of the echo intensity in at least a part of the predetermined altitude range, The lightning strike risk derivation unit uses the accumulated echo intensity and the altitude distribution of temperature to derive the altitude distribution of lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions. A device for deriving the degree of lightning strike risk, characterized by the above features.

2. The feature quantity derivation unit uses the altitude distribution of temperature to derive a specific temperature zone integrated echo intensity, which is the integrated value of the echo intensity corresponding to the first temperature range among the predetermined altitude ranges, for each of the plurality of regions. The lightning strike risk derivation unit derives the height distribution of lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions using at least the cumulative echo intensity of the specific temperature range. The lightning strike risk derivation device according to feature 1.

3. The feature quantity derivation unit derives, for each of the plurality of regions, the vertical integrated echo intensity, which is the integrated value of the echo intensity over the entire predetermined altitude range, The lightning strike risk derivation unit derives the height distribution of lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions using at least the vertically integrated echo intensity. The lightning strike risk derivation device according to feature 2.

4. The lightning strike risk derivation unit uses the feature quantities derived by the feature quantity derivation unit to derive a lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions that does not include altitude information, and uses the derived lightning strike risk and the altitude distribution of temperature to derive the altitude distribution of the lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions. In the lightning strike risk derivation unit, an algorithm derived using past lightning strike cases is used to derive the lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions, which does not include altitude information. A lightning strike risk derivation device according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

5. The lightning strike risk derivation unit, in deriving the intensity distribution of lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions, masks the derived lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions with a second temperature range determined from past lightning strike cases. The lightning strike risk derivation device according to feature 4.

6. The aforementioned second temperature range is determined seasonally using past lightning strike incidents. The lightning strike risk derivation device according to feature 5.

7. The weather observation devices are located in multiple locations within the range comprising the multiple regions, The temperature derivation unit is, The temperature, atmospheric pressure, and altitude corresponding to each of the multiple regions are derived from the weather observation device. In addition to the derived temperature, pressure, and altitude, the altitude distribution of temperature for each of the aforementioned regions is derived using a height measurement formula that utilizes the temperatures at multiple isobaric surfaces derived from the results of atmospheric analysis. The temperature, pressure, and altitude corresponding to any of the aforementioned regions are determined by the meteorological observation device corresponding to that arbitrary region, and the meteorological observation device corresponding to that arbitrary region is determined by a Voronoi tessellation using the installation locations of the meteorological observation devices. A lightning strike risk derivation device according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

8. A lightning strike risk deriving device according to claim 1, Image display device and Equipped with, The image display device displays in three dimensions the height distribution of the lightning strike risk for each of the multiple regions derived by the lightning strike risk derivation device. A lightning strike risk indicator system characterized by the following features.

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