Estimation device, conversion device, carbon credit system, estimation method, and program

Abstract

This estimation device is provided with a first information acquiring means that acquires first information that is expected from an object subject to a disaster, a second information acquiring means that acquires second information that is expected from an object into which a disaster prevention or disaster mitigation measure has been introduced, and an estimation means that estimates an estimated amount of suppressed carbon dioxide on the basis of the first information and the second information.

Description

Estimation device, conversion device, carbon credit system, estimation method, conversion method, and storage medium

[0001] The present disclosure relates to an estimation device, a conversion device, a carbon credit system, an estimation method, a conversion method, and a storage medium.

[0002] In recent years, it has become known to trade greenhouse gas emission rights in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. For example, Patent Literature 1 discloses that it is effective to acquire carbon dioxide emission reduction credits in the greenhouse gas emission rights trading market.

[0003] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2005-215916

[0004] The system disclosed in Patent Document 1 calculates the amount of carbon dioxide reduction by taking into account various energy-saving control measures in the building, making it difficult to evaluate the amount of carbon dioxide reduction taking into account possible future disasters.

[0005] In view of any of the above-mentioned problems, the object of the present disclosure is to provide an estimation device, a conversion device, a carbon credit system, an estimation method, a conversion method, and a storage medium that make it easy to evaluate the amount of carbon dioxide reduction taking disasters into account.

[0006] An estimation device according to one aspect of the present disclosure includes a first information acquisition means for acquiring first information expected of an object that will be affected by a disaster, a second information acquisition means for acquiring second information expected of the object that has implemented disaster prevention or mitigation measures, and an estimation means for estimating an estimated amount of carbon dioxide reduction based on the first information and the second information.

[0007] An estimation method according to one aspect of the present disclosure acquires first information expected of an object that will be affected by a disaster, acquires second information expected of the object that has implemented disaster prevention or mitigation measures, and estimates an estimated amount of carbon dioxide reduction based on the first information and the second information.

[0008] A storage medium according to one aspect of the present disclosure is a storage medium that stores a program that causes a computer to acquire first information expected of an object that will be affected by a disaster, acquire second information expected of the object that has implemented disaster prevention or mitigation measures, and estimate an estimated amount of carbon dioxide reduction based on the first information and the second information.

[0009] According to the above aspect, it is easy to estimate the amount of carbon dioxide suppression taking disasters into consideration.

[0010] 1 is a diagram illustrating an overall configuration of a carbon credit system according to some embodiments of the present disclosure. FIG. 2 is a flowchart illustrating the operation of a carbon credit system according to some embodiments of the present disclosure. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example where the first information and the second information are simple according to some embodiments of the present disclosure. FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example where the first information and the second information are simple and long-period according to some embodiments of the present disclosure. FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example where the first information and the second information are applied to existing infrastructure according to some embodiments of the present disclosure. FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example where the first information and the second information are evaluated within a value assessment window according to some embodiments of the present disclosure. FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example where the first information and the second information are information for a period including a disaster occurrence and reconstruction according to some embodiments of the present disclosure. FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating an example where the first information and the second information are information derived from a wildfire according to some embodiments of the present disclosure. FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating details of FIG. 9. FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an overall configuration of a carbon credit system according to some embodiments of the present disclosure. FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating a calculation formula for an estimated carbon dioxide reduction amount according to some embodiments of the present disclosure. FIG. 12 is a diagram illustrating a calculation procedure for reduction amount information according to some embodiments of the present disclosure. FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating a calculation procedure for reduction amount information according to some embodiments of the present disclosure. FIG. 14 is a block diagram of an estimation device according to some embodiments of the present disclosure. FIG. 15 is a flowchart illustrating an estimation method according to some embodiments of the present disclosure. FIG. 16 is an example of a hardware configuration of a computer included in an estimation device and a management device according to each embodiment of the present disclosure.

[0011] Various embodiments according to the present disclosure will be described below with reference to the drawings.

[0012] Hereinafter, several embodiments according to the present disclosure will be described with reference to FIGS.

[0013] (Configuration of Carbon Credit System) As shown in FIG. 1 , a carbon credit system 1 in some embodiments includes a disaster avoidance device 9, an estimation device 2, and a conversion device 3. Because greenhouse gas emissions are often converted into equivalent carbon dioxide emissions in carbon neutrality, greenhouse gases will generally be referred to as carbon dioxide hereinafter. The carbon credit system 1 evaluates the "reduction amount" of carbon dioxide, rather than the "emission amount." That is, the carbon credit system 1 assigns potential value to the carbon dioxide reduction amount expected for the object OBJ through the implementation of disaster prevention or mitigation measures, and is used to issue carbon credits (potential credits) and manage carbon credit operational information. The object OBJ includes structures and structures such as bridges, roads, railways, dams, levees, pipes, power transmission and communication networks, and buildings, as well as developed land such as parks, residential areas, and agricultural land, and land such as mountains, forests, rivers, lakes, and coastlines that are subject to regular monitoring and conservation for disaster prevention purposes. The beneficiaries of the carbon credits issued by the carbon credit system 1 include the administrator who manages the object OBJ, users of the object OBJ, people related to the object OBJ, local residents of the object OBJ, and taxpayers related to the object OBJ.

[0014] (Configuration of Disaster Avoidance Device) The disaster avoidance device 9 is one of the disaster prevention or mitigation measures for disasters that may occur to the object OBJ, and includes various sensors, various computers, various communication devices, various actuators, etc. The disaster avoidance device 9 provides information necessary for observing the object OBJ and for taking measures such as reinforcing and maintaining the object OBJ to the manager, user, etc. of the object OBJ. For example, the disaster avoidance device 9 uses remote sensing technology using various sensors mounted on artificial satellites or aircraft, or various sensors installed near the object OBJ, such as image analysis including SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar), optical fiber sensor analysis, multiple satellite image analysis, and cross-view image matching of on-site images and satellite images.

[0015] The disaster avoidance device 9 provides information useful for disaster prevention or mitigation measures, such as value damage avoidance information for avoiding damage to the value of the object OBJ due to a disaster and disaster prevention solutions for protecting the object OBJ from a disaster, using, for example, AI (Artificial Intelligence) technology, simulation technology, digital twin technology, etc., and remote sensing technology. For example, if the object OBJ is a building or structure, the disaster avoidance device 9 observes the presence or absence of deterioration or abnormal conditions of the object OBJ, such as bending, cracks, fissures, defects, distortion, weathering, corrosion, loosening, abnormal vibration, abnormal temperature, or abnormal eruption, evaluates the soundness and strength characteristics of the object OBJ, and presents disaster prevention measures such as repair work and maintenance work for the object OBJ, thereby providing information for avoiding disasters such as collapse, breach, collapse, flooding, contamination, and electric shock. For example, if the object OBJ is a developed land or land, the disaster avoidance device 9 provides information for avoiding disasters such as collapse, breach, collapse, inundation, contamination, burning, etc. by observing changes in the undulations and degree of ups and downs of the object OBJ, observing changes in the position, area, water level, etc., observing the presence or absence of abnormal phenomena such as water leaks, cracks, erosion, and eruptions, and suggesting disaster prevention measures such as repair work and maintenance work for the object OBJ. For example, if the object OBJ is a mountain or forest, the disaster avoidance device 9 provides information for avoiding disasters such as fires by monitoring the object OBJ and suggesting thinning work to prevent the fire from spreading.

[0016] (Configuration of the estimation device) The estimation device 2 is a device for estimating the amount of carbon dioxide emissions that can be reduced by disaster prevention or mitigation measures introduced to the object OBJ (hereinafter also referred to as the "estimated carbon dioxide reduction amount"). The estimation device 2 evaluates the amount of carbon dioxide that can be reduced by introducing disaster prevention or mitigation measures in order to define the value of the reduced amount of carbon dioxide. In some embodiments, the estimation device 2 estimates the estimated amount of carbon dioxide reduction that can be reduced by using the value loss avoidance means or disaster prevention solutions provided by the disaster avoidance device 9. The estimation device 2 includes a first information acquisition unit 21, a second information acquisition unit 22, and an estimation unit 23.

[0017] The first information acquisition unit 21 acquires first information IF1 expected for an object OBJ that will be hit by a disaster. The second information acquisition unit 22 acquires second information IF2 expected for an object OBJ that has implemented disaster prevention or mitigation measures. The estimation unit 23 estimates an estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR based on the first information IF1 and the second information IF2.

[0018] (Configuration of the conversion device) The conversion device 3 is a device for converting the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR into carbon credits, thereby giving potential value to the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR estimated by the estimation device 2. The conversion device 3 includes a suppression amount information acquisition unit 31, a conversion unit 32, and a credit issuance management unit 33.

[0019] The suppression amount information acquisition unit 31 acquires suppression amount information IFR based on the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR from the estimation device 2. In some embodiments, the suppression amount information acquisition unit 31 acquires the suppression amount information IFR calculated by the estimation unit 23 of the estimation device 2 based on the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR.

[0020] The conversion unit 32 converts the suppression amount information IFR into carbon credits.

[0021] The credit issuance management unit 33 issues and manages the carbon credits converted by the conversion unit 32. The credit issuance management unit 33 manages the operation of paying out real credits from carbon credits when it has confirmed the state or situation in which credits can be issued, for example, when it has confirmed that disaster prevention measures have been implemented for the object OBJ, or when it has confirmed that no disasters have occurred within a set management period. If the object OBJ is damaged during operation, the credit issuance management unit 33 manages the management of the impairment or disappearance of the value of the object OBJ from the issued carbon credits, for example, the operation of deducting the credits that disappear due to the damage that has occurred from the issued carbon credits.

[0022] (Operation of Carbon Credit System) The operation of the carbon credit system 1 of several embodiments will be described. Specific patterns of the first information IF1 and the second information IF2 will be described using examples using Figures 2 to 10. Of the operations of the carbon credit system 1, the operation of the estimation device 2 corresponds to the estimation method of several embodiments. Note that the horizontal axis of each graph in Figures 3 to 8 indicates time, and the vertical axis indicates the amount of carbon dioxide emissions emitted in relation to the object OBJ. Note that the horizontal axis of each graph in Figures 9 and 10 indicates time, and the vertical axis indicates the amount of carbon dioxide reduction reduced in relation to the object OBJ, which corresponds to the value of the potential credit.

[0023] 2 , first, the first information acquisition unit 21 acquires first information IF1 expected for the object OBJ (ST01: first information acquisition step). Following ST01, the second information acquisition unit 22 acquires second information IF2 expected for the object OBJ for which disaster prevention or mitigation measures have been implemented (ST02: second information acquisition step). Following ST02, the estimation unit 23 estimates an estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR based on the first information IF1 and the second information IF2 (ST03: estimation step).

[0024] In this operation, for example, the first information IF1 and the second information IF2 may be simple information as shown in FIG.

[0025] In Figure 3, first information IF1 is the estimated carbon dioxide emissions for the object OBJ before the implementation of disaster prevention or mitigation measures. When the object OBJ is a structure, the first information acquisition unit 21 uses statistical data, simulation technology, AI technology, etc. to estimate the reconstruction cycle, lifespan, etc. of the object OBJ before the implementation of disaster prevention or mitigation measures from the structure, size, materials, etc. of the object OBJ, and estimates the carbon dioxide emissions generated during the construction, demolition, and reconstruction of the object OBJ. Then, using such estimation results, the first information IF1 is used to estimate a carbon dioxide emission pattern for the object OBJ as shown in Figure 3. In the case shown in Figure 3, the first information IF1 includes the carbon dioxide emissions generated during the construction of the object OBJ, two demolition operations, and two reconstruction operations.

[0026] In contrast, the second information IF2 is the estimated carbon dioxide emissions for the object OBJ after disaster prevention or mitigation measures are implemented. Specifically, the second information IF2 is the expected carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the implementation of environmental technologies, such as the carbon credit system 1, which utilizes AI technology, remote sensing technology, and the like, as disaster prevention or mitigation measures. The second information acquisition unit 22 then estimates a reconstruction period that is extended by the implementation of disaster prevention or mitigation measures compared to the reconstruction period in the first information IF1, which is required for disaster preparedness, and estimates a carbon dioxide emission pattern for the object OBJ, such as that shown in FIG. 3, as the second information IF2. In the example shown in FIG. 3, the second information IF2, like the first information IF1, includes the carbon dioxide emissions generated during the construction of the object OBJ, the first demolition, and the first reconstruction. On the other hand, the second information IF2 does not include the carbon dioxide emissions generated during the second demolition and the second reconstruction, compared to the first information IF1, because the reconstruction period can be extended by the implementation of disaster prevention or mitigation measures. The second information IF2 also includes, in addition to the first information IF1, the amount of carbon dioxide emissions that will be generated by implementing disaster prevention measures or disaster mitigation measures.

[0027] Using this result, the estimation unit 23 estimates the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR for the predetermined estimation period from the value obtained by subtracting the first information IF1 from the second information IF2. Note that the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR thus estimated has value as a potential credit.

[0028] For example, the first information IF1 and the second information IF2 may be simple, long-period information as shown in FIG. 4. In the case shown in FIG. 4, compared to the case of FIG. 3, the first information IF1 includes the carbon dioxide emissions generated during the construction of the object OBJ before the implementation of disaster prevention or mitigation measures, five demolition periods, and five reconstruction periods. On the other hand, the second information IF2 does not include the carbon dioxide emissions generated during at least three demolition periods and three reconstruction periods compared to the first information IF1, because the implementation of disaster prevention or mitigation measures can lengthen the reconstruction period. Using this result, the estimation unit 23 estimates the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR for the specified estimation period from the value obtained by subtracting the first information IF1 from the second information IF2.

[0029] For example, the first information IF1 and the second information IF2 may be information about an existing object OBJ, as shown in FIG. 5, that does not incorporate past carbon dioxide emissions, such as those during construction. In the case shown in FIG. 5, compared to FIG. 4, the first information IF1 is applied to existing infrastructure (object OBJ), and therefore does not include carbon dioxide emissions generated during the construction of the object OBJ. On the other hand, the second information IF2 does not include at least the carbon dioxide emissions generated during three demolitions and three reconstructions, compared to the first information IF1, because the introduction of disaster prevention or mitigation measures for existing infrastructure extends its lifespan (lengthening the reconstruction cycle). Using this result, the estimation unit 23 estimates the estimated carbon dioxide reduction amount AMR for the specified estimation period from the value obtained by subtracting the first information IF1 from the second information IF2.

[0030] For example, the first information IF1 and the second information IF2 may be information about an evaluation period within a value evaluation window WIN as shown in FIG. 6 . In the example shown in FIG. 6 compared to FIG. 5 , the first information IF1 includes carbon dioxide emissions generated during three demolition and three reconstructions within the value evaluation window WIN out of five demolition and five reconstructions. On the other hand, the second information IF2 does not include carbon dioxide emissions generated during two demolition and two reconstructions within the value evaluation window WIN, compared to the first information IF1. Using this result, the estimation unit 23 estimates the estimated carbon dioxide reduction amount AMR for a predetermined estimation period from the value obtained by subtracting the first information IF1 from the second information IF2. Here, the estimation device 2 may estimate the estimated carbon dioxide reduction amount AMR by sliding the value evaluation window WIN at regular intervals (e.g., every year).

[0031] For example, the first information IF1 and the second information IF2 may be information covering a period including a disaster occurrence and reconstruction, as shown in FIG. 7 . In the case shown in FIG. 7 , the first information IF1 includes estimated carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the disaster. Specifically, the first information acquisition unit 21 estimates, as the first information IF1, a carbon dioxide emission pattern including carbon dioxide emissions that would occur if the object OBJ were to be damaged during the life of the object OBJ before disaster prevention or mitigation measures were implemented and then rebuilt (carbon dioxide emissions during the second demolition and reconstruction). On the other hand, the second information IF2 includes estimated carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the disaster if disaster prevention or mitigation measures were implemented. Specifically, the second information acquisition unit 22 estimates, as the second information IF2, a carbon dioxide emission pattern including carbon dioxide emissions similar to the first information IF1, except that it does not include carbon dioxide emissions that would occur during the first demolition and reconstruction that could be avoided by implementing disaster prevention or mitigation measures. Using this result, the estimation unit 23 estimates the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR for a predetermined estimation period from the value obtained by subtracting the first information IF1 from the second information IF2. For example, the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR estimated based on the assumed lifespan of the object OBJ may be re-estimated starting from the disaster.

[0032] For example, if the object OBJ is a mountain, the first information IF1 and the second information IF2 may be information about a period that includes disasters such as multiple wildfires, as shown in FIG. 8, and may not include carbon dioxide emissions associated with construction (information that only includes carbon dioxide emissions due to disasters). In the case shown in FIG. 8, the first information IF1 includes estimated carbon dioxide emissions resulting from wildfires as disasters. Specifically, the first information acquisition unit 21 estimates the scale and frequency of wildfires on the object OBJ before disaster prevention or mitigation measures are implemented based on the size of the mountain, which is the object OBJ, the condition of the forest, etc., and estimates the pattern of carbon dioxide emissions due to wildfires as the first information IF1. On the other hand, the second information IF2 includes estimated carbon dioxide emissions resulting from disasters when disaster prevention or mitigation measures are implemented against wildfires. Specifically, the second information acquisition unit 22 estimates the lengthening of the forest fire cycle and the reduction of the forest fire scale due to the implementation of disaster prevention or mitigation measures, and estimates the pattern of carbon dioxide emissions due to forest fires as second information IF2. Using this result, the estimation unit 23 estimates the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR for the predetermined estimation period from the value obtained by subtracting the first information IF1 from the second information IF2.

[0033] The estimation unit 23 calculates the suppression amount information IFR by discounting and integrating the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR estimated in each of the plurality of predetermined estimation periods over the plurality of predetermined estimation periods. Specifically, as shown in Fig. 9 , the estimation unit 23 calculates a plurality of estimated carbon dioxide suppression amounts AMR by subtracting the first information IF1 from the second information IF2, dividing the result by the plurality of predetermined estimation periods, and averaging the result, discounting the future value by a predetermined discount rate, integrating the result, and converting the carbon dioxide suppression amount into a present value, which is calculated as the suppression amount information IFR.

[0034] Following execution of ST03, the suppression amount information acquisition unit 31 acquires the suppression amount information IFR (ST04: suppression amount acquisition step).

[0035] Following execution of ST04, the conversion unit 32 converts the acquired suppression amount information IFR into carbon credits (ST05: conversion step).

[0036] Following the execution of ST05, the credit issuance management unit 33 issues and manages the carbon credits converted by the conversion unit 32 (ST06: issuance management step). For example, the credit issuance management unit 33 may issue carbon credits equivalent to the reduction amount information IFR (reduction amount information converted from seven years' worth of estimated carbon dioxide reduction amounts AMR) in the first fiscal year (first year). This allows the administrator, user, etc. of the object OBJ, who is the creator of the carbon credits, to earn income by having investors purchase the carbon credits issued by the credit issuance management unit 33.

[0037] On the other hand, the credit issuance management unit 33 manages operation information for paying out actual credits from the issued carbon credits when it has confirmed the state or situation in which credits can be issued, for example, when it has confirmed that disaster prevention measures or countermeasures have been implemented for the object OBJ, or when it has confirmed that no disaster has occurred. Furthermore, the credit issuance management unit 33 manages operation information for managing the depletion or disappearance of the value of the object OBJ from the issued carbon credits if the object OBJ is damaged during operation, for example, for deducting the credits that disappear due to damage caused to the object OBJ from the issued carbon credits.

[0038] Specifically, carbon credits are managed using a system such as that shown in FIG. 10 . An investor who purchases carbon credits can receive actual credits if no disasters occur to the target object OBJ between the first and second years. Meanwhile, the rights for the first year included in the carbon credits are amortized, and the investor holds new carbon credits, recalculated for six years, starting with the second year. Thereafter, actual credits are paid out each time it is confirmed that no disasters have occurred (e.g., annually), and the carbon credit rights are amortized. If the target object OBJ is damaged during the fourth year, the credits lost due to damage to the target object OBJ are deducted, for example, by invalidating the future value of the carbon credits or erasing the value loss of the target object OBJ. The credit issuance management unit 33 manages such carbon credit management information.

[0039] (Actions and Effects) According to some embodiments of the estimation device 2, it is possible to estimate the expected carbon dioxide reduction amount when disaster prevention measures or disaster mitigation measures are implemented for an object OBJ. For example, if disaster prevention measures or disaster mitigation measures are implemented for an object OBJ, carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced by extending the cycle of rebuilding buildings and structures, cutting down trees, and other activities required to prepare for disasters, or by actually reducing the scale of disasters. The estimation device 2 can estimate such a carbon dioxide reduction amount. Therefore, it is easy to estimate the carbon dioxide reduction amount taking disasters into account.

[0040] Furthermore, according to some embodiments of the estimation device 2, the first information IF1 and the second information IF2 include estimated carbon dioxide emissions resulting from disasters, so that in the event of a disaster actually occurring to the object OBJ, damage can be avoided or reduced by disaster prevention or mitigation measures, and the amount of carbon dioxide that can be suppressed can be estimated.

[0041] Furthermore, according to some embodiments of the estimation device 2, the suppression amount information is calculated by discounting and accumulating the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR estimated in each of multiple specified estimation periods over multiple specified estimation periods, so that it is possible to calculate the carbon dioxide suppression amount by reducing future value and converting it to present value.

[0042] Furthermore, according to some embodiments of the conversion device 3, the reduction amount information IFR can be converted into carbon credits, so that financial value can be assigned to an object OBJ for which disaster prevention or mitigation measures have been implemented. By converting the reduction amount information IFR into carbon credits, for example, it becomes possible to estimate carbon credits at the design and construction stages of the object OBJ, to issue carbon credits at the design and construction stages of the object OBJ, and to recover investments in disaster prevention measures, etc.

[0043] According to some embodiments of the conversion device 3, when a state or situation in which credits can be issued is confirmed, for example, when it is confirmed that disaster prevention measures or procedures have been implemented for the object OBJ, or when it is confirmed that no disaster has occurred, the conversion device 3 manages the operation of issuing actual credits from carbon credits, thereby supporting a policy of rewarding carbon credits when a state or situation in which credits can be issued is confirmed, such as when disaster prevention measures or procedures have been implemented or no disaster has occurred.

[0044] According to some embodiments of the conversion device 3, the operation information is managed to reduce or eliminate the value of the object OBJ from the issued carbon credits, for example, to reduce the credits that are lost due to damage caused to the object OBJ by a disaster, thereby assisting in the handling of carbon credits after the object OBJ is affected by a disaster.

[0045] Some embodiments according to the present disclosure will be described below with reference to Fig. 11. A carbon credit system 101 according to some embodiments is similar to the carbon credit system 1 according to some embodiments described above, except that the specific first information and second information are different and that a basic unit and an occurrence probability are used. In contrast to the carbon credit system 1 according to some embodiments described above, the carbon credit system 101 according to some embodiments includes an estimation device 102 instead of the estimation device 2.

[0046] (Configuration of Estimation Device) In some embodiments, the estimation device 102 includes a first information acquisition unit 121 , a second information acquisition unit 122 , an estimation unit 123 , a basic unit storage unit 124 , and a probability acquisition unit 125 .

[0047] In some embodiments, the first information acquisition unit 121 acquires the amount of damage to the object OBJ expected due to the disaster as the first information IF101 expected for the object OBJ that will be affected by the disaster.

[0048] In some embodiments, the second information acquisition unit 122 acquires the expected disaster prevention and mitigation rate of the object OBJ in which disaster prevention measures or disaster mitigation measures have been introduced as the second information IF102 expected of the object OBJ in which disaster prevention measures or disaster mitigation measures have been introduced.

[0049] The unit consumption data storage unit 124 stores unit consumption data UNT that can convert the amount of damage into carbon dioxide emissions.

[0050] The probability acquisition unit 125 acquires the occurrence probability PRB of a disaster that will befall the object OBJ.

[0051] In some embodiments, the estimation unit 123 estimates the estimated carbon dioxide reduction amount AMR1 based on the basic unit UNT, the amount of damage to the object, the occurrence probability PRB, and the disaster prevention and mitigation rate.

[0052] (Operation of Carbon Credit System) The operation of the carbon credit system 101 of some embodiments will be described. The carbon credit system 101 of some embodiments performs the steps shown in Fig. 2, similar to the carbon credit system 1 of some embodiments described above. Of the operations of the carbon credit system 101, the operation of the estimation device 102 corresponds to the estimation method of some embodiments.

[0053] In some embodiments, before carrying out ST01 shown in FIG. 2, the unit cost storage unit 124 stores the unit cost UNT that can convert the amount of damage into carbon dioxide emissions, and the probability acquisition unit 125 acquires the probability PRB of occurrence of a disaster that will befall the object OBJ.

[0054] For example, in the case of a building, since there is a proportional relationship between the amount of concrete that makes up the building and the amount of electricity and fuel required to drive the construction machinery used to rebuild the building, there is also a proportional relationship between the amount of damage to the building, which is related to the amount of concrete, and the amount of carbon dioxide emitted during reconstruction. Utilizing this relationship, the ratio of carbon dioxide emissions to the amount of damage is determined, and the damage amount is stored in the unit consumption data storage unit 124 as a unit consumption data UNT that can be converted into carbon dioxide emissions.

[0055] Furthermore, for example, if the object OBJ is a building, the probability acquisition unit 125 identifies the annual occurrence probability (annual disaster occurrence probability) of natural disasters such as earthquakes, typhoons, floods, etc. that are large enough to cause damage to the object OBJ from statistical data, and estimates the annual occurrence probability of the disaster that the object OBJ will suffer as the occurrence probability PRB.

[0056] Then, in ST01, the first information acquisition unit 121 acquires the amount of damage to the object OBJ expected due to the disaster as the first information IF101 expected for the object OBJ that will be affected by the disaster.

[0057] For example, if the object OBJ is a building, the first information acquisition unit 121 uses statistical data, simulation technology, AI technology, etc. to calculate the amount of damage that would occur if the object OBJ were to be completely destroyed from the amount of concrete in the object OBJ identified from the specifications, blueprints, etc. of the object OBJ, and estimates this as the amount of damage to the object.

[0058] Following the implementation of ST01, in ST02, the second information acquisition unit 122 acquires the disaster prevention and mitigation rate expected for the object OBJ in which disaster prevention measures or disaster mitigation measures have been introduced as the second information IF102 expected for the object OBJ in which disaster prevention measures or disaster mitigation measures have been introduced.

[0059] For example, the second information acquisition unit 122 estimates the disaster prevention / mitigation rate from statistical data when disaster prevention measures or disaster mitigation measures are applied to objects of the same type as the object OBJ.

[0060] Following the execution of ST02, in ST03, the estimation unit 123 estimates the estimated carbon dioxide reduction amount AMR1 based on the unit of consumption UNT, the amount of damage to the object, the probability of occurrence PRB, and the disaster prevention and reduction rate. For example, the estimation unit 123 calculates the estimated carbon dioxide reduction amount AMR1 = amount of damage to the object × probability of occurrence PRB × unit of consumption UNT × disaster prevention and reduction rate in accordance with the calculation formula in FIG. 12.

[0061] Furthermore, the estimation unit 123 calculates the suppression amount information IFR1 by discounting and accumulating the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR1 estimated in each of the plurality of predetermined estimation periods over the plurality of predetermined estimation periods. Specifically, the suppression amount information IFR1, which is a new estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount obtained by discounting the future value from the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR1 and converting it to a present value, is calculated in accordance with the calculation formula of Figure 12. The suppression amount information IFR1 calculated in this manner is calculated by discounting the value of the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR1 estimated for each period 10 years, 20 years, and 30 years into the future and accumulating it as a present value, as shown in Figure 13.

[0062] Thereafter, the steps from ST04 onwards are carried out for the calculated suppression amount information IFR1, as in the several embodiments described above.

[0063] (Operations and Effects) As with the estimation device 2 of some embodiments described above, the estimation device 102 of some embodiments can estimate the carbon dioxide reduction amount expected when disaster prevention measures or disaster mitigation measures are introduced for the object OBJ. Therefore, it is easy to estimate the carbon dioxide reduction amount taking disasters into consideration.

[0064] Furthermore, according to some embodiments of the estimation device 102, the estimated carbon dioxide reduction amount AMR1 can be estimated based on the amount of damage to the object, the occurrence probability PRB, the basic unit UNT, and the disaster prevention and mitigation rate, making it easy to understand the relationship between the estimated carbon dioxide reduction amount AMR1 and various parameters.

[0065] Furthermore, similar to the estimation device 2 of some embodiments described above, according to the estimation device 102 of some embodiments, the carbon dioxide reduction amount information IFR1 is calculated by discounting and accumulating the estimated carbon dioxide reduction amount AMR1 estimated in each specified estimation period over multiple specified estimation periods, so that the carbon dioxide reduction amount can be calculated by reducing the future value and converting it to a present value.

[0066] Some embodiments of the present disclosure will be described below with reference to FIG. 14 . As shown in FIG. 14 , an estimation device 202 of some embodiments includes a first information acquisition unit 221, a second information acquisition unit 222, and an estimation unit 223. The first information acquisition unit 221 acquires a first information IF201 expected for an object affected by a disaster. The second information acquisition unit 222 acquires a second information IF202 expected for an object for which disaster prevention measures or disaster mitigation measures have been implemented. The estimation unit 223 estimates an estimated carbon dioxide reduction amount AMR2 based on the first information IF201 and the second information IF202. The estimation device 202 of some embodiments can estimate the carbon dioxide reduction amount expected when disaster prevention measures or disaster mitigation measures are implemented for an object OBJ.

[0067] Some embodiments according to the present disclosure will be described below with reference to Fig. 15. As shown in Fig. 15, the estimation method of some embodiments acquires first information expected for an object that will be affected by a disaster (ST201), acquires second information expected for an object that has implemented disaster prevention or mitigation measures (ST202), and estimates an estimated carbon dioxide reduction amount based on the first information and the second information (ST203). According to the estimation method of some embodiments, it is possible to estimate the carbon dioxide reduction amount expected when disaster prevention or mitigation measures are implemented for an object OBJ.

[0068] (Hardware Configuration of Processing Device) An example of a hardware configuration for realizing each device of the estimation device and the conversion device in some of the above-described embodiments will be described with reference to Fig. 16. As shown in Fig. 16, each device of the estimation device and the conversion device is a computer 8 including each piece of hardware: a processor 81, a memory 82, a storage / playback device 83, a communication I / F (communication interface) 84, and an IO I / F (input output interface) 85.

[0069] The processor 81 is, for example, a CPU (Central Processing Unit). The memory 82 is a storage medium such as a RAM (Random Access Memory) or a ROM (Read Only Memory). The storage / playback device 83 is a device for storing programs, data, etc. in external media such as a CD-ROM (Compact Disc Read Only Memory), a DVD (Digital Versatile Disc), or a flash memory, and for playing back programs, data, etc. from external media. The communication I / F 84 is an interface for communicating between the computer 8 and other devices via a communication line such as the Internet or a dedicated communication line. The IO I / F 85 is an interface for inputting a source program and inputting and outputting information, etc. between the computer 8 and other devices.

[0070] (Computer Program) A program (first program) for realizing all or part of the functions of the estimation device in some of the above-described embodiments may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium (first storage medium), and the program stored in this storage medium may be read into a computer system (first computer) and executed to perform processing of each unit. Also, a program (second program) for realizing all or part of the functions of the conversion device in some of the above-described embodiments may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium (second storage medium), and the program stored in this storage medium may be read into a computer system (second computer) and executed to perform processing of each unit. Note that the term "computer system" here includes hardware such as an OS (Operating System) and peripheral devices.

[0071] Furthermore, if a WWW (World Wide Web) system is used, the "computer system" also includes the homepage providing environment (or display environment).

[0072] Furthermore, "computer-readable storage media" refers to portable media such as flexible disks, optical magnetic disks, ROMs, CD-ROMs, and storage devices such as hard disks built into computer systems.

[0073] In addition, "computer-readable storage medium" includes a medium that dynamically stores a program for a short period of time, such as a communication line when transmitting a program via a network such as the Internet or a communication line such as a telephone line.

[0074] Furthermore, the term "computer-readable storage medium" also includes a medium that stores a program for a certain period of time, such as volatile memory within a computer system that serves as a server or client when transmitting a program via a network such as the Internet or a communication line such as a telephone line.

[0075] For example, the program may be designed to realize some of the functions described above, or may be designed to realize the functions described above in combination with a program already stored in the computer system.

[0076] (Variations of Each Embodiment) In some of the above-described embodiments, the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount is estimated for each predetermined estimation period among a plurality of predetermined estimation periods, but any amount of carbon dioxide suppression may be used. As a variation, the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount may be the carbon dioxide suppression amount for the entire duration of the value of the object OBJ, rather than the carbon dioxide suppression amount for each predetermined estimation period.

[0077] In some of the above-described embodiments, the suppression amount information is calculated by accumulating the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount estimated for each predetermined estimation period, discounting the amount over multiple predetermined estimation periods. However, any information indicating the amount of carbon dioxide suppression may be used. As a variant, the suppression amount information may be calculated by simply accumulating the amount over multiple predetermined estimation periods without discounting. As another variant, the suppression amount information may be the amount of carbon dioxide suppression over the entire duration of the value of the object OBJ.

[0078] Although several embodiments of the present disclosure have been described above, these embodiments are presented as examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the present disclosure. Some embodiments can be implemented in various other forms, and various omissions, substitutions, and modifications can be made without departing from the spirit of the present disclosure. Furthermore, each embodiment can be combined with other embodiments as appropriate.

[0079] Some or all of the above-described embodiments can be described as, but are not limited to, the following supplementary notes.

[0080] (Supplementary Note 1) An estimation device comprising: a first information acquisition means for acquiring first information expected of an object that will be affected by a disaster; a second information acquisition means for acquiring second information expected of the object that has implemented disaster prevention or mitigation measures; and an estimation means for estimating an estimated carbon dioxide reduction amount based on the first information and the second information.

[0081] (Supplementary Note 2) The estimation device described in Supplementary Note 1, wherein the first information includes an estimated amount of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the disaster, and the second information includes an estimated amount of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the disaster if the disaster prevention measures or the disaster mitigation measures are implemented in response to the disaster.

[0082] (Supplementary Note 3) The estimation device according to Supplementary Note 1 or 2, further comprising: a unit of measure storage means for storing a unit of measure by which the amount of damage can be converted into carbon dioxide emissions; and a probability acquisition means for acquiring the probability of the disaster occurring; wherein the first information includes the amount of damage to the object expected due to the disaster to the object; the second information includes a disaster prevention and mitigation rate expected for the object for which disaster prevention measures or disaster mitigation measures have been introduced; and the estimation means estimates the estimated carbon dioxide reduction amount based on the unit of measure, the amount of damage to the object, the occurrence probability, and the disaster prevention and mitigation rate.

[0083] (Appendix 4) The estimation device according to any one of Appendices 1 to 3, wherein the estimation means calculates the suppression amount information by accumulating the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount estimated in each of a plurality of predetermined estimation periods over the plurality of predetermined estimation periods, discounting the amount.

[0084] (Supplementary Note 5) A conversion device comprising: a suppression amount information acquisition means for acquiring suppression amount information based on the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount estimated by the estimation device according to any one of Supplementary Notes 1 to 4; and a conversion means for converting the acquired suppression amount information into carbon credits.

[0085] (Supplementary Note 6) The conversion device according to Supplementary Note 5, further comprising a credit issuance management means for managing operational information for issuing real credits from the carbon credits when a state or situation in which credits can be issued is confirmed.

[0086] (Supplementary Note 7) The conversion device according to Supplementary Note 6, wherein the credit issuance management means manages operation information for depleting or eliminating the value of the object from the carbon credit.

[0087] (Supplementary Note 8) A carbon credit system comprising: the conversion device according to any one of Supplementary Notes 5 to 7; and the estimation device.

[0088] (Supplementary Note 9) An estimation method comprising: acquiring first information expected of an object that will be affected by a disaster; acquiring second information expected of the object that has implemented disaster prevention or mitigation measures; and estimating an estimated amount of carbon dioxide reduction based on the first information and the second information.

[0089] (Supplementary Note 10) The estimation method according to Supplementary Note 9, wherein the first information includes an estimated amount of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the disaster, and the second information includes an estimated amount of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the disaster when the disaster prevention measures or the disaster mitigation measures are implemented in response to the disaster.

[0090] (Appendix 11) An estimation method as described in Appendix 9 or 10, which stores a unit of measure that can convert the amount of damage into carbon dioxide emissions; obtains the probability of the disaster occurring; the first information includes the amount of damage to the object expected to be caused by the disaster to the object; and the second information includes an expected disaster prevention and mitigation rate for the object for which disaster prevention or mitigation measures have been introduced; and estimates the estimated amount of carbon dioxide reduction based on the unit of measure, the amount of damage to the object, the occurrence probability, and the disaster prevention and mitigation rate.

[0091] (Appendix 12) An estimation method according to any one of Appendices 9 to 11, in which the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount estimated in each of a plurality of predetermined estimation periods is discounted and accumulated over the plurality of predetermined estimation periods to calculate suppression amount information.

[0092] (Supplementary Note 13) A conversion method comprising: acquiring suppression amount information based on the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount estimated by the estimation method according to any one of Supplementary Notes 9 to 12; and converting the acquired suppression amount information into carbon credits.

[0093] (Supplementary Note 14) The conversion method according to Supplementary Note 13, wherein, when a state or situation in which credits can be issued is confirmed, operation information for issuing real credits from the carbon credits is managed.

[0094] (Supplementary Note 15) The conversion method according to Supplementary Note 14, further comprising managing operational information for depleting or eliminating the value of the object from the carbon credits.

[0095] (Supplementary Note 16) The conversion method according to any one of Supplementary Notes 13 to 15, which performs the estimation method.

[0096] (Supplementary Note 17) A first storage medium storing a first program that causes a first computer to acquire first information expected for an object that will be hit by a disaster, acquire second information expected for the object that has introduced disaster prevention or mitigation measures, and estimate an estimated amount of carbon dioxide reduction based on the first information and the second information.

[0097] (Appendix 18) A first storage medium as described in Appendix 17, wherein the first information includes an estimated amount of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the disaster, and the second information includes an estimated amount of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the disaster if the disaster prevention measures or the disaster mitigation measures are implemented in response to the disaster.

[0098] (Supplementary Note 19) A first storage medium as described in Supplementary Note 17 or 18, wherein the first program causes the first computer to execute the following: storing a unit of measure by which the amount of damage can be converted into carbon dioxide emissions; and obtaining the probability of the disaster occurring; the first information includes the amount of damage to the object expected to be caused by the disaster to the object; and the second information includes a disaster prevention and mitigation rate expected for the object for which disaster prevention or mitigation measures have been introduced; and estimating the estimated amount of carbon dioxide reduction based on the unit of measure, the amount of damage to the object, the occurrence probability, and the disaster prevention and mitigation rate.

[0099] (Supplementary Note 20) A first storage medium described in any one of Supplementary Notes 17 to 19, wherein the first program causes the first computer to calculate suppression amount information by discounting and accumulating the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount estimated in each of a plurality of predetermined estimation periods over the plurality of predetermined estimation periods.

[0100] (Supplementary Note 21) A second storage medium storing a second program that causes a second computer to execute the first program stored in the first storage medium described in any one of Supplementary Notes 17 to 20 to acquire reduction amount information based on the estimated carbon dioxide reduction amount estimated by executing the first program stored in the first storage medium, and convert the acquired reduction amount information into carbon credits.

[0101] (Supplementary Note 22) The second storage medium according to Supplementary Note 21, wherein the second program causes the second computer to manage operational information for issuing real credits from the carbon credits when a state or situation in which credits can be issued is confirmed.

[0102] (Supplementary Note 23) The second storage medium according to Supplementary Note 22, wherein the second program causes the second computer to manage operational information that reduces or eliminates the value of the object from the carbon credits.

[0103] This application claims priority to Japanese Patent Application No. 2023-003197, filed on January 12, 2023, the contents of which are incorporated herein by reference.

[0104] According to the above aspect, it is easy to estimate the amount of carbon dioxide suppression taking disasters into consideration.

[0105] REFERENCE SIGNS LIST 1 Carbon credit system 2 Estimation device 3 Conversion device 8 Computer 9 Disaster avoidance device 21 First information acquisition unit 22 Second information acquisition unit 23 Estimation unit 31 Suppression amount information acquisition unit 32 Conversion unit 33 Credit issuance management unit 81 Processor 82 Memory 83 Storage / playback device 84 Communication I / F 85 IO I / F 101 Carbon credit system 102 Estimation device 121 First information acquisition unit 122 Second information acquisition unit 123 Estimation unit 124 Basic unit storage unit 125 Probability acquisition unit 202 Estimation device 221 First information acquisition unit 222 Second information acquisition unit 223 Estimation unit AMR Estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR1 Estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount AMR2 Estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount IF1 First information IF2 Second information IF101 First information IF102 Second information IF201 First information IF202 Second information IFR Suppression amount information IFR1 Suppression amount information OBJ Object PRB Occurrence probability SAR Satellite UNT Basic unit WIN Value assessment window

Claims

1. a first information acquisition means for acquiring first information expected to be received from an object affected by a disaster; second information acquisition means for acquiring second information expected for the object for which disaster prevention measures or disaster mitigation measures have been introduced; an estimation means for estimating an estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount based on the first information and the second information; Equipped with Estimation device.

2. the first information includes an estimated carbon dioxide emission amount resulting from the disaster; The second information includes an estimated amount of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the disaster when the disaster prevention measures or the disaster mitigation measures are implemented against the disaster. The estimation device according to claim 1 .

3. a unit of measure storage means for storing a unit of measure capable of converting the amount of damage into carbon dioxide emissions; a probability acquisition means for acquiring the probability of occurrence of the disaster; Furthermore, the first information includes an estimated amount of damage to the object due to the disaster; The second information includes a disaster prevention and mitigation rate expected for the object to which a disaster prevention measure or a disaster mitigation measure has been introduced, The estimation means estimates the estimated carbon dioxide reduction amount based on the basic unit, the amount of damage to the object, the occurrence probability, and the disaster prevention and reduction rate. The estimation device according to claim 1 .

4. The estimation device according to claim 1, wherein the estimation means calculates the suppression amount information by discounting and integrating the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount estimated in each of a plurality of predetermined estimation periods over the plurality of predetermined estimation periods.

5. a suppression amount information acquisition means for acquiring suppression amount information based on the estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount estimated by the estimation device according to claim 1; A conversion means for converting the obtained suppression amount information into carbon credits; Equipped with Conversion device.

6. The system further includes a credit issuance management means for managing operational information for issuing actual credits from the carbon credits when the state or situation in which credits can be issued is confirmed. The conversion device according to claim 5 .

7. The credit issuance management means manages operational information on the depletion or disappearance of value related to the object from the carbon credit. The conversion device according to claim 6.

8. A conversion device according to claim 5; the estimation device; Equipped with Carbon credit system.

9. Obtaining first-hand information on the objects likely to be affected by the disaster, Acquire second information expected for the object for which disaster prevention measures or disaster mitigation measures have been introduced; An estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount is estimated based on the first information and the second information. Estimation method.

10. On the computer, Obtaining first-hand information on the objects likely to be affected by the disaster, Acquire second information expected for the object for which disaster prevention measures or disaster mitigation measures have been introduced; An estimated carbon dioxide suppression amount is estimated based on the first information and the second information. Execute the process program.