Production plan creation method, production plan creation device, and program

Abstract

This production plan creation method for a chemical substance comprises: acquiring a target production amount in a first period; breaking down the target production amount in the first period to a primary production plan value that is a production plan amount in a second period; acquiring a primary cumulative performance value that is a cumulative value of a primary performance value indicating an actual production amount in each second period from the start of the first period to the present time, and a primary cumulative plan value that is a cumulative value of the primary production plan value from the start of the first period to the present time; generating a corrected plan value obtained by correcting the primary production plan value in the subsequent second period if a value derived on the basis of the primary cumulative performance value and the primary cumulative plan value is less than a threshold value, and maintaining the primary production plan value in the subsequent second period if the value is equal to or greater than the threshold value; and reflecting the primary production plan value as the primary production plan value for the subsequent second period.

Description

Production planning method, production planning device, and program

[0001] The present invention relates to a production planning method, a production planning device, and a program.

[0002] The use of variable renewable energy is expected to become increasingly widespread in the future. One possible method for utilizing variable renewable energy is to produce hydrogen using variable renewable energy, store the produced hydrogen at least temporarily, and use the hydrogen in a downstream process. Patent Document 1 describes an electrolysis system. The electrolysis system includes a power generation device, a power distribution device, an electrolyzer, and a booster. The power generation device generates electricity using renewable energy. The power distribution device distributes the generated electricity. The electrolyzer performs water electrolysis using the distributed electricity. The booster uses the distributed electricity (surplus electricity exceeding the power consumed by the electrolyzer) to boost the pressure of hydrogen and oxygen produced by the electrolyzer.

[0003] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2019-026858

[0004] In production facilities such as plants, a target production volume may be set for a predetermined period of time. For example, an agreement (offtake contract) is made between a supplier and a purchaser to purchase or sell a product that the supplier plans to provide. If an offtake contract is concluded for a chemical substance, the supplier formulates a production plan based on the target production volume set in the offtake contract. For example, medium- and short-term production plans for chemical substances are formulated based on past weather information, power generation performance, etc. However, in the actual production process, differences occur between the production volume set in the formulated production plan and the actual production volume. Therefore, even if differences occur between the production volume set in the production plan and the actual production volume, it is necessary to achieve the target production volume. An object of the present invention is to provide a production plan creation method, a production plan creation device, and a program for creating a production plan that can achieve (comply with) the target production volume even if differences occur between the production volume set in the production plan and the actual production volume for a predetermined period of time.

[0005] [1] In order to solve the above-mentioned problem, a production plan creation method according to one aspect of the present invention is a production plan creation method for a chemical substance produced using hydrogen derived from variable renewable energy as a feedstock, the production plan creation method comprising: a first step of acquiring information indicating a target production amount, which is a target value for the production amount for a first period; a second step of breaking down the target production amount for the first period into primary production plan values, which are production plan amounts for a second period that is shorter than the first period; a third step of acquiring a primary cumulative actual value, which is an accumulated value of primary actual values ​​from the start of the first period to the present, and a primary cumulative planned value, which is an accumulated value of the primary production plan value from the start of the first period to the present, which are information indicating the actual production amount for each period in the second period; and a fourth step of generating a corrected planned value by correcting the primary production plan value for a next second period, if a value derived based on the primary cumulative actual value and the primary cumulative planned value is less than a predetermined threshold, and maintaining the primary production plan value for a next second period and reflecting it as the primary production plan value for the next second period, if the value derived based on the primary cumulative actual value and the primary cumulative planned value is greater than or equal to the threshold.

[0006] [2] Also, another aspect is the above-mentioned production plan creation method, wherein in the fourth step, if a difference or ratio between the primary cumulative actual value and the primary cumulative planned value is less than a predetermined threshold, the difference between the primary cumulative actual value and the primary cumulative planned value is distributed over the remainder of the second period, and the corrected planned value for the next second period is generated.

[0007] [3] Also, another aspect is the above-mentioned production plan creation method for chemical substances produced using hydrogen derived from variable renewable energy as a raw material, which includes, before the first step, an acquisition step of acquiring information indicating a long-term target production amount, which is a target value for the production amount for a third period that is longer than the first period, and a breakdown step of breaking down the long-term target production amount for the third period into the target production amount for the first period, wherein in the breakdown step, the amount of wind power generation or the amount of solar power generation for the first period is calculated using wind condition data and the power generation efficiency of a renewable energy power generation facility, or solar radiation data and the power generation efficiency of a renewable energy power generation facility, and the long-term target production amount for the third period is broken down into the target production amount based on the calculated value.

[0008] [4] Also, another aspect is the production planning method for chemical substances produced using hydrogen derived from variable renewable energy as a raw material, wherein the target production amount for the first period includes a target production amount of the chemical substance derived from wind power and a target production amount of the chemical substance derived from solar power.

[0009] [5] Also, another aspect is the production plan creation method for a chemical substance produced using hydrogen derived from variable renewable energy as a raw material, wherein in the breakdown step, the target production amount of the chemical substance derived from wind power is calculated based on: Target production amount of the chemical substance derived from wind power=long-term target production amount for a third period×number of operating days of a manufacturing plant of the chemical substance in a first period / total number of operating days of the manufacturing plant×amount of wind power generated in the first period / total amount of power generated in the first period.

[0010] [6] Also, another aspect is the production plan creation method for a chemical substance produced using hydrogen derived from variable renewable energy as a raw material, wherein in the breakdown step, the target production amount of the solar-derived chemical substance is calculated based on Target production amount of solar-derived chemical substance = Long-term target production amount for a third period × Number of operating days of a manufacturing plant of the chemical substance in a first period / Total number of operating days of the manufacturing plant × Amount of solar power generation for the first period / Total amount of power generation for the first period.

[0011] [7] In order to solve the above-mentioned problem, a production plan creation device according to one aspect of the present invention is a production plan creation device for a chemical substance produced using hydrogen derived from variable renewable energy as a raw material, the production plan creation device comprising: an acquisition unit that acquires information indicating a target production amount, which is a target value for the production amount for a first period; a plan creation unit that breaks down the target production amount for the first period into primary production plan values, which are production plan amounts for a second period that is shorter than the first period; and a decision unit that acquires a primary cumulative actual value, which is an accumulated value of primary actual values ​​from the start of the first period to the present, and a primary cumulative planned value, which is an accumulated value of the primary production plan value from the start of the first period to the present, which are information indicating the actual production amount for each period in the second period; and generates a corrected planned value by correcting the primary production plan value for a next second period if a value derived based on the primary cumulative actual value and the primary cumulative planned value is less than a predetermined threshold; and maintains the primary production plan value for a next second period and reflects it as the primary production plan value for the next second period if the value is equal to or greater than the threshold.

[0012] [8] In order to solve the above-mentioned problem, according to one aspect of the present invention, a program causes a computer of a production plan creation device for a chemical substance produced using hydrogen derived from variable renewable energy as a raw material to execute the following steps: a first step of acquiring information indicating a target production amount, which is a target value for the production amount for a first period; a second step of breaking down the target production amount for the first period into primary production plan values, which are production plan amounts for a second period that is shorter than the first period; a third step of acquiring a primary cumulative actual value, which is an accumulated value of primary actual values ​​from the start of the first period to the present, and a primary cumulative planned value, which is an accumulated value of the primary production plan value from the start of the first period to the present, which are information indicating the actual production amount for each period in the second period; and a fourth step of generating a corrected planned value by correcting the primary production plan value for a next second period, if a value derived based on the primary cumulative actual value and the primary cumulative planned value is less than a predetermined threshold; and maintaining the primary production plan value for a next second period and reflecting it as the primary production plan value for the next second period, if the value derived based on the primary cumulative actual value and the primary cumulative planned value is greater than or equal to the threshold.

[0013] According to the present invention, it is possible to provide a production plan creation method, a production plan creation device, and a program for creating a production plan that can achieve (comply with) a target production amount even if a difference occurs between the production amount in the production plan and the actual production amount of a chemical substance for a predetermined period.

[0014] 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a plant control system 1 of the present embodiment. FIG. 2 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a production plan creation device 100 included in the plant control system 1 of the present embodiment. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of processing by the production plan creation device 100 of the present embodiment. FIG. 4 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a plant 400 of the present embodiment. FIG. 5 is a block diagram illustrating a schematic internal functional configuration of a plant control device 450 included in the plant 400 of the present embodiment. FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram illustrating a configuration of data stored in a parameter storage unit 456 of the plant control device 450 included in the plant 400 of the present embodiment. FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of operation of the plant control system 1 of the present embodiment. FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating an example of operation of the plant control system 1 of the present embodiment. FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating an example of processing by the production plan creation device 100 of the present embodiment. FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating another example of operation of the plant control system 1 of the present embodiment.

[0015] Next, a production planning method, a production planning device, and a program according to this embodiment will be described with reference to the drawings. The embodiment described below is merely an example, and the embodiments to which the present invention is applied are not limited to the following embodiments. In all drawings used to describe the embodiments, components having the same functions are designated by the same reference numerals, and repeated explanations are omitted. Furthermore, "based on XX" in this application means "based on at least XX," and includes cases where the production is based on other elements in addition to XX. Furthermore, "based on XX" is not limited to cases where XX is directly used, but also includes cases where the production is based on XX after calculation or processing. "XX" is any element (for example, any information).

[0016] (Plant Control System) FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of a plant control system 1 according to the present embodiment. The plant control system 1 controls a plant that produces chemical substances using hydrogen derived from variable renewable energy as a raw material. Hydrogen derived from variable renewable energy refers to hydrogen produced using variable renewable energy. Hydrogen produced using variable renewable energy is stored at least temporarily. An example of a chemical substance is ammonia. The following description will continue with a case where ammonia is used as an example of a chemical substance.

[0017] Variable renewable energy is energy whose output fluctuates significantly depending on natural conditions. Variable renewable energy is also called "natural renewable energy" or "renewable energy." Examples of variable renewable energy include solar energy, wind energy, and tidal energy. Variable renewable energy is used to generate electricity.

[0018] The plant control system 1 includes a production plan creation device 100, an operation control device 200, and a communication connection server (for example, an OPC (Object Linking and Embedding for Process Control) server) 300. FIG. 1 shows a plant 400 in addition to the production plan creation device 100, the operation control device 200, and the communication connection server 300. The production plan creation device 100, the operation control device 200, the communication connection server 300, and the plant 400 can communicate with each other via a communication network NW. The communication network NW includes the Internet, a WAN (Wide Area Network), a LAN (Local Area Network), a public line, a provider device, a dedicated line, a wireless base station, etc.

[0019] The production planning device 100 creates production plans for chemical substances. For example, the production planning device 100 creates long-term, medium-term, and short-term production plans for the production of chemical substances. An example of a long-term production plan is a production plan on an annual basis (e.g., one year). An example of a medium-term production plan is a monthly production plan, and an example of a short-term production plan is a production plan that includes an average planned daily production volume for a target month calculated by dividing the monthly production plan by days. With regard to the operation of the plant 400, the production planning device 100 creates a medium-term operation plan based on the medium-term production plan, and creates a short-term operation plan based on the short-term production plan. The production planning device 100 registers the created medium-term operation plan and short-term operation plan in a database (not shown).

[0020] The operation control device 200 acquires the medium-term operation plan and the short-term operation plan registered in the database by the production plan creation device 100. Based on the acquired medium-term operation plan and short-term operation plan, the operation control device 200 creates plant operation control information for controlling the operation of the plant 400 and transmits it to the plant control device 450, which will be described later.

[0021] The communication connection server 300 acquires information indicating the load rate of the plant 400, information indicating the planned production volume, information indicating the actual value of the power generation volume, information indicating the power monitoring value, information indicating the plant status such as the remaining tank volume, information indicating the actual hydrogen production value, information indicating the actual chemical substance production value, and information indicating an alarm from the plant's distributed control system. The communication connection server 300 creates actual value information including plant identification information and information indicating the actual chemical substance production value, and transmits it to the production plan creation device 100. Here, the plant identification information is used to identify each of the multiple plants when multiple plants are controlled by the plant control system 1. In this embodiment, an example will be described in which a production plan for one plant is created.

[0022] The plant 400 produces hydrogen by water electrolysis using power obtained from variable renewable energy and at least temporarily stores the produced hydrogen in a storage device. The plant 400 produces products such as chemical substances using hydrogen supplied from the storage device as a raw material. The production plan creation device 100, the operation control device 200, and the communication connection server 300 may be, for example, stationary computers, or portable computers such as smartphones and tablet computers (tablet PCs). The production plan creation device 100 and the plant 400 included in the plant control system 1 will be described in detail below. FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing an example of the production plan creation device 100 included in the plant control system 1 of this embodiment.

[0023] (Production plan creation device 100) The production plan creation device 100 includes a communication unit 101, a reception unit 102, an acquisition unit 103, a plan creation unit 104, a storage processing unit 105, a determination unit 106, an operation unit 108, a display unit 109, and a storage unit 110. The communication unit 101 is realized by a communication module. The communication unit 101 communicates with an external communication device via a network NW. The communication unit 101 communicates using a communication method such as a wired LAN. The communication unit 101 may also communicate using a wireless communication method such as a wireless LAN, Bluetooth (registered trademark), or LTE (Long Term Evolution) (registered trademark).

[0024] The display unit 109 is, for example, a display and includes a touch panel. The storage unit 110 is realized by a hard disk drive (HDD), flash memory, random access memory (RAM), read only memory (ROM), etc., and stores information. The storage unit 110 stores information indicating the actual production values ​​of chemical substances included in the actual value information acquired from the communication connection server 300, in association with the date and time of acquisition. The storage unit 110 may be realized by a cloud.

[0025] The operation unit 108 is an input device that accepts operator operations, such as a touch panel. The operator operates the operation unit 108 to input information indicating a target value for the production amount of the chemical substance for the first period (hereinafter referred to as the "target production amount") and a threshold value. The threshold value is used when determining whether to maintain the primary production plan value (described later) and is set (determined) in advance. The acquisition unit 103 thereby acquires information indicating the target production amount of the chemical substance for the first period and the threshold value. An example of the first period is one month, and the target production amount of the chemical substance for the first period may correspond to a medium-term operation plan. The following description will continue, as an example, assuming that the first period is one month. Here, for example, a margin rate may be used as the threshold value. The margin rate is the maximum operable production amount relative to the production amount during normal operation of the plant. A plant with a margin rate set to 1.1 is designed to be able to produce up to 1.1 times the production amount during normal operation of the chemical substance. For example, assume that the number of operating days of the plant during the first period is 30 days, and the target production amount for 10 days from the start of the first period is T. In this case, the plant is designed to be able to produce up to 1.1 T with a margin in mind. Then, using equation (2) described later, the production plan amount for the second period is corrected so that the difference between 1.1 PV, which is an allowance rate (threshold value) for the primary cumulative planned value PV, and a primary cumulative actual value EV described later is produced in the remaining 20 days. Details will be described later.

[0026] The target production amount of chemical substances in the first period may be a target production amount of chemical substances derived from wind power, or may be a target production amount of chemical substances derived from solar power. The target production amount of chemical substances in the first period may include both a target production amount of chemical substances derived from wind power and a target production amount of chemical substances derived from solar power. The target production amount of chemical substances derived from wind power refers to chemical substances produced using hydrogen produced using wind power as a raw material. The target production amount of chemical substances derived from solar power refers to chemical substances produced using hydrogen produced using solar power as a raw material.

[0027] The storage processing unit 105 acquires the threshold value from the acquisition unit 103 and stores it in the storage unit 110 in association with the acquired date and time. The plan creation unit 104 acquires information indicating the target production amount of the chemical substance for a first period from the acquisition unit 103. The plan creation unit 104 creates information indicating the production plan amount for a second period (hereinafter referred to as the "primary production plan value") based on the acquired information indicating the target production amount of the chemical substance for the first period. Specifically, the plan creation unit 104 creates the primary production plan value by breaking down the target production amount of the chemical substance for the first period into the production plan amount for a second period that is shorter than the first period.

[0028] For example, the plan creation unit 104 breaks down the target production amount of the chemical substance for the first period into a production plan amount for the second period (in days) by dividing (dividing) the target production amount of the chemical substance for the first period by the number of planned operation days in the first period based on formula (1), and creates a primary production plan value. In this case, an example of the second period is one day, and the primary production plan value of the chemical substance for the second period may correspond to a short-term operation plan. Below, as an example, the explanation will continue for the case where the second period is one day. Production plan amount for the second period = Target production amount of the chemical substance for the first period / Planned number of operation days (1)

[0029] For example, the target production amount of the wind-derived chemical substance for the first period may be derived based on the annual production amount of the wind-derived chemical substance, the number of operating days of the plant per month, and the total number of operating days of the plant per year.For example, the target production amount of the sunlight-derived chemical substance for the first period may be derived based on the annual production amount of the sunlight-derived chemical substance, the number of operating days of the plant per month, and the total number of operating days of the plant per year.

[0030] For example, the target production amount of the chemical substance for the first period may be derived by adding up the target production amount of the chemical substance derived from wind power for the first period and the target production amount of the chemical substance derived from sunlight for the first period. The plan creation unit 104 associates information indicating the created primary production plan value of the chemical substance for the second period with the date and time of creation and stores it in the storage unit 110. Furthermore, the plan creation unit 104 creates a short-term operation plan based on the created primary production plan value of the chemical substance for the second period, and associates information indicating the created short-term operation plan with the database.

[0031] The communication unit 101 receives the actual value information transmitted by the communication connection server 300. For example, the communication connection server 300 transmits the actual value information at a predetermined interval. An example of the predetermined interval is a period shorter than the second period. The reception unit 102 receives the actual value information received by the communication unit 101. The storage processing unit 105 acquires information indicating the actual production values ​​of the chemical substances included in the actual value information from the reception unit 102, associates it with the date and time of acquisition, and stores it in the storage unit 110.

[0032] The determination unit 106 acquires one or more pieces of information indicating actual production values ​​of chemical substances acquired from the start of a first period to the present, from the storage unit 110. The determination unit 106 derives the actual production amount (actual production value) of the chemical substance in each second period from the start of the first period to the present, based on the acquired information indicating the actual production values ​​of the one or more chemical substances. The determination unit 106 derives a cumulative value (hereinafter referred to as a "primary cumulative actual value EV") from the start of the first period to the present of the information indicating the derived actual production value (hereinafter referred to as a "primary cumulative actual value EV").

[0033] The determination unit 106 acquires one or more pieces of information indicating primary production plan values ​​of chemical substances for a second period that have been created from the start of the first period to the present from the storage unit 110. The determination unit 106 derives a cumulative value of the primary production plan values ​​of chemical substances for one or more second periods from the start of the first period to the present (hereinafter referred to as a "primary cumulative planned value PV") based on the acquired information indicating the primary production plan values ​​of chemical substances for the one or more second periods.

[0034] The determination unit 106 performs a primary production plan value determination process based on information indicating the derived primary cumulative actual value EV and information indicating the primary cumulative planned value PV. The primary production plan determination process will now be described. The determination unit 106 derives a calculated value by performing a predetermined calculation from the primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative planned value PV. Examples of the predetermined calculation include determining the difference between the primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative planned value PV, and determining the ratio between the primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative planned value PV.

[0035] FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining an example of processing by the production plan creation device 100 of this embodiment. In FIG. 3, the horizontal axis represents the first period, and the vertical axis represents the production amount of the chemical substance. As an example, a case will be described in which the first period is one month from April 1 to April 30, and the second period is one day. The dashed line represents the primary cumulative planned value EV for the second period, and the solid line represents the primary cumulative actual value PV for the second period. FIG. 3 shows the target production amount (contract amount) of the chemical substance for the first period, and the primary production planned value and primary actual value for each second period.

[0036] The determination unit 106 acquires threshold values ​​from the storage unit 110. The determination unit 106 determines whether the difference between the derived primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative planned value PV is less than a first threshold value or greater than or equal to the first threshold value. The determination unit 106 may also determine whether the ratio between the derived primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative planned value PV is less than a second threshold value or greater than or equal to the second threshold value. Here, the first threshold value is a threshold value used to determine the difference between the primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative planned value PV, and the second threshold value is a threshold value used to determine the ratio between the primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative planned value PV. The first threshold value and the second threshold value are different. As an example, a case will be described where the start of the first period is April 1st and the current time is April 15th. FIG. 3 shows the difference dif between the current primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative planned value PV.

[0037] When the difference dif ((primary cumulative actual value EV) - (primary cumulative planned value PV)) between the current primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative planned value PV is less than a first threshold, the determination unit 106 generates a corrected planned value by correcting the current primary production planned value as the primary production planned value to be used in the next second period. When the ratio ((primary cumulative actual value EV) / (primary cumulative planned value PV)) between the current primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative planned value PV is less than a second threshold, the determination unit 106 generates a corrected planned value by correcting the current primary production planned value as the primary production planned value to be used in the next second period. For example, the determination unit 106 distributes the difference dif between the current primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative planned value PV over the remaining second period to generate a corrected planned value for the next second period. Specifically, the determination unit 106 derives the production volume to be added in the next second period based on equation (2).

[0038] Additional production volume = ((primary cumulative planned value PV) × second threshold - (primary cumulative actual value EV)) / remaining second period (2) The determination unit 106 creates a corrected plan value by adding the additional production volume to the primary production plan value. An example will be described in which a margin rate is used as the threshold. For example, assume that the number of operating days of the plant in the first period is 30 days, and that the PV for the 10 days after the start of the first period is T and the EV is 0.9T. In this case, since the plant is designed to be able to produce up to 1.1T in 10 days, in order to comply with the target production volume, it is necessary to produce 0.2T (1.1T - 0.9T) in the remaining 20 days. Then, the additional production volume for the next day is calculated as follows: Additional production volume = (1.1T - 0.9T) / 20 = 0.01T In this way, by using the surplus rate as a threshold, a plan can be made to produce the amount to be produced in the remaining days by an amount that takes into account the surplus rate, rather than the actual shortfall, and it is possible to prevent a production volume shortfall at the end of the second period.

[0039] Furthermore, when the difference dif between the current primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative planned value PV is equal to or greater than a first threshold, the decision unit 106 determines to maintain the primary production plan value for the next second period. When the ratio between the current primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative planned value PV is equal to or greater than a second threshold, the decision unit 106 determines to maintain the primary production plan value for the next second period. When the decision unit 106 generates a corrected plan value by correcting the primary production plan value for the next second period, the decision unit 106 reflects the generated corrected plan value as the primary production plan value for the next second period.

[0040] 4 is a block diagram showing an example of a plant 400 according to this embodiment. (Plant 400) The plant 400 includes a first manufacturing apparatus 410, a storage apparatus 420, a flow control valve 430, a second manufacturing apparatus 440, and a plant control apparatus 450. A power supply apparatus 2 supplies power to at least the first manufacturing apparatus 410. An overview of each of these apparatuses will be described below.

[0041] The power supply device 2 supplies power generated using variable renewable energy to at least the first manufacturing equipment 410. The power supply device 2 may be a device that generates power using variable renewable energy. Alternatively, the power supply device 2 may receive power generated by another device using variable renewable energy and supply the power to the first manufacturing equipment 410.

[0042] The first production apparatus 410 produces hydrogen by water electrolysis using at least the power supplied from the power supply apparatus 2 (power obtained from variable renewable energy). That is, the first production apparatus 410 produces hydrogen and oxygen using water as a raw material. The hydrogen produced by the first production apparatus 410 is transferred to the storage apparatus 420 via piping or the like. The oxygen produced by the first production apparatus 410 is transferred to another storage apparatus (not shown), for example, via piping or the like.

[0043] The storage device 420 at least temporarily stores the hydrogen produced in the first production device 410. The storage device 420 is, for example, a tank for storing liquefied gas or gas. The storage device 420 is equipped with a measuring device for measuring the remaining amount of hydrogen in the device. The reference range of the storage amount in the storage device 420 will be explained later. The reference range is expressed as a lower limit and an upper limit (for example, a percentage) of the storage amount in the storage device 420 for maintaining plant operation.

[0044] The flow control valve 430 is a valve for controlling the flow rate. The flow control valve 430 is provided midway through a pipe or the like for supplying hydrogen from the storage device 420 to the second production device 440. The flow control valve 430 has, for example, a mechanism for continuously varying the throttle opening. The throttle opening of the flow control valve 430 is configured to be changeable based on a control signal from the plant control device 450.

[0045] The second production apparatus 440 is an apparatus that produces a product such as a chemical substance using hydrogen supplied from the storage apparatus 420 as a raw material. Raw materials other than hydrogen that are necessary for producing the product are also supplied to the second production apparatus 440. As an example, the second production apparatus 440 produces ammonia as a product using hydrogen and nitrogen as raw materials. The second production apparatus 440 may also produce other products. In addition to ammonia, the second production apparatus 440 produces, for example, methanol, organic hydride, methane, carbon monoxide, diesel, hydrogen peroxide, etc. In either case, the second production apparatus 440 consumes hydrogen supplied from the storage apparatus 420 as one of the raw materials.

[0046] The plant control device 450 controls the production of products by the plant 400. The plant control device 450 receives the plant operation control information transmitted by the operation control device 200. The plant control device 450 controls the production of products by the plant 400 based on the received plant operation control information.

[0047] Specifically, the plant control device 450 controls the amount of hydrogen supplied from the storage device 420 to the second production device 440. To this end, the plant control device 450 outputs a control signal for controlling the aperture of the flow control valve 430. The amount of hydrogen supplied from the flow control valve 430 is the time integral of the product of the aperture and the flow rate of hydrogen (the length of flow per unit time). In other words, the amount of hydrogen supplied from the flow control valve 430 is the time integral of the flow rate per unit time (the flow rate depends on the aperture of the flow control valve 430). The actual flow rate of hydrogen may be measured using a flow meter or the like, and the measured flow rate may be fed back to the plant control device 450 for control.

[0048] In Fig. 4, (1) is the power supplied from the power supply device 2 to the first production equipment 410. (2) is the hydrogen produced in the first production equipment 410 and passed to the storage device 420. (3) is the hydrogen supplied from the storage device 420 to the second production equipment 440 through the flow control valve 430. (4) is a control signal for controlling the opening of the flow control valve 430. That is, the control signal (4) controls the amount of hydrogen supplied from the storage device 420 to the second production equipment 440.

[0049] 5 is a block diagram showing a schematic internal functional configuration of a plant control device 450 included in the plant 400 of this embodiment. As shown in the figure, the plant control device 450 includes an input / output unit 452, a hydrogen supply amount determination unit 454, a parameter storage unit 456, a supply amount record storage unit 458, and a remaining storage amount acquisition unit 460.

[0050] The plant control device 450 is realized using, for example, an electronic circuit. The plant control device 450 may also be realized using a computer and a program. Each component of the plant control device 450 may have a storage device as needed. The storage device is realized using, for example, a semiconductor memory or a magnetic hard disk.

[0051] The input / output unit 452 inputs or outputs signals. Specifically, the input / output unit 452 acquires a signal indicating the remaining amount of hydrogen in the storage device 420 from the outside and passes the signal to the remaining storage amount acquisition unit 460. The input / output unit 452 also outputs a signal related to the hydrogen supply amount passed from the hydrogen supply amount determination unit 454 to the outside. The input / output unit 452 may also input or output other signals.

[0052] The hydrogen supply amount determination unit 454 determines the supply amount of hydrogen to be supplied to the second production apparatus 440. In order to determine the hydrogen supply amount, the hydrogen supply amount determination unit 454 acquires data on the actual hydrogen supply amount from the supply amount record storage unit 458. The hydrogen supply amount determination unit 454 also acquires information on the remaining amount of hydrogen in the storage device 420 from the remaining storage amount acquisition unit 460. The hydrogen supply amount determination unit 454 also reads the values ​​of multiple parameters necessary to determine the hydrogen supply amount from the parameter storage unit 456.

[0053] Once the hydrogen supply amount determination unit 454 has determined the hydrogen supply amount, it outputs a signal for controlling the flow control valve 430. This signal causes the plant control device 450 to control the amount of hydrogen supplied to the second production apparatus 440. The hydrogen supply amount determination unit 454 may output a signal that directly represents the numerical value of the determined hydrogen supply amount. Alternatively, the hydrogen supply amount determination unit 454 may calculate the opening degree of the flow control valve 430 based on the determined hydrogen supply amount, and output a signal that represents a numerical value corresponding to the opening degree.

[0054] Alternatively, a flow meter may be provided on the hydrogen flow path, for example, near the flow control valve 430, and the actual flow rate of hydrogen measured by this flow meter may be fed back to the hydrogen supply amount determination unit 454. In this case, the hydrogen supply amount determination unit 454 controls the opening of the flow control valve 430, for example, based on the information on the actual flow rate that has been fed back.

[0055] The parameter storage unit 456 stores parameters necessary for determining the hydrogen supply amount by the hydrogen supply amount determination unit 454. The parameters stored in the parameter storage unit 456 will be described later.

[0056] The supply amount record storage unit 458 stores data on the amount of hydrogen supplied to the second production apparatus 440, i.e., the amount of hydrogen consumed in the second production apparatus 440. The supply amount record storage unit 458 stores, for example, the numerical value of the hydrogen supply amount.

[0057] The remaining storage amount acquiring unit 460 acquires a signal from the outside (from the storage device 420) regarding the remaining amount of hydrogen in the storage device 420. The remaining storage amount acquiring unit 460 also passes data regarding the remaining amount of hydrogen to the hydrogen supply amount determining unit 454.

[0058] The contents of the signals received or transmitted by each unit shown in FIG. 5 are as follows: (10) and (11) are signals indicating the remaining amount of hydrogen in the storage device 420, which are acquired by the remaining storage amount acquisition unit 460 via the input / output unit 452. (12) is a hydrogen supply amount request signal passed from the input / output unit 452 to the hydrogen supply amount determination unit 454. The hydrogen supply amount request signal (12) may be based on a request from outside the plant control device 450. (13) is information on the hydrogen supply amount that the hydrogen supply amount determination unit 454 references from the supply amount record storage unit 458. (14) is a signal indicating the remaining amount of hydrogen in the storage device 420, which is passed by the remaining storage amount acquisition unit 460 to the hydrogen supply amount determination unit 454. (15) is a signal indicating the value of a parameter that the hydrogen supply amount determination unit 454 reads from the parameter storage unit 456. Signals (16) and (17) are signals for controlling the aperture of the flow control valve 430 based on the hydrogen supply amount determined by the hydrogen supply amount determination unit 454. The signals for controlling the aperture of the flow control valve 430 are output via the input / output unit 452.

[0059] 6 is a schematic diagram showing the configuration of data stored in the parameter storage unit 456 of the plant control device 450 included in the plant 400 of this embodiment. These parameters are set, for example, by a parameter setting application program operated by a plant manager. The data stored in the parameter storage unit 456 includes a reference range for the remaining amount in the storage device, the amount of hydrogen consumed, and plant shutdown conditions.

[0060] The reference range of the storage device remaining capacity is a reference for the remaining amount of hydrogen in the storage device 420 when the plant 400 is operated. The parameter storage unit 456 stores a lower limit value and an upper limit value (both of which are percentages of the total storage capacity of the storage device 420) as the reference range of the storage device remaining capacity. Operation is planned so that the remaining amount of hydrogen in the storage device 420 always falls within this range. As an example, the reference range of the storage device remaining capacity is determined based on the pressure of the storage device 420. For example, if the design pressure (maximum hydrogen pressure) of the storage device 420 is 100%, the lower limit value is 30% of the design pressure and the upper limit value is 70% of the design pressure. Furthermore, the lower limit value may be less than 30% of the design pressure, and the upper limit value may be greater than 70% of the design pressure, and are not particularly limited. The reference range of the storage device remaining capacity may be determined based on the weight (e.g., kilograms) of hydrogen in the storage device 420, in addition to the design pressure of the storage device 420.

[0061] The hydrogen consumption amount is the amount of hydrogen consumed by the second production apparatus 440. The parameter storage unit 456 stores an upper limit and a lower limit (unit: kilogram, for example) of the hydrogen consumption amount.

[0062] The plant shutdown condition is a reference value (a percentage of the total storage amount of hydrogen) of the remaining amount of hydrogen in the storage device 420. If the remaining amount of hydrogen falls below this reference value, the plant control device 450 performs control to shut down the operation of the plant 400.

[0063] (Operation of Plant Control System 1) The operation of the plant control system 1 will be described with reference to Fig. 7 and Fig. 8. Fig. 7 is a diagram showing an example of the operation of the plant control system 1 of this embodiment. With reference to Fig. 7, a process in which the production plan creation device 100 accumulates performance value information will be described.

[0064] (Step S1-1) The communication connection server 300 acquires information indicating actual production values ​​of chemical substances from the plant 400. (Step S2-1) The communication connection server 300 creates actual value information including information indicating actual production values ​​of chemical substances.

[0065] (Step S3-1) The communication connection server 300 transmits the actual result value information to the production plan creation device 100. (Step S4-1) In the production plan creation device 100, the communication unit 101 receives the actual result value information. The reception unit 102 receives the actual result value information received by the communication unit 101. (Step S5-1) The storage processing unit 105 acquires information indicating the actual production values ​​of the chemical substances included in the actual result value information from the reception unit 102, and stores the information in the storage unit 110 in association with the acquisition date and time.

[0066] FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of the operation of the plant control system 1 of this embodiment. Referring to FIG. 8 , a process in which the production plan creation device 100 reviews the primary production plan value will be described. As an example, a case in which the primary production plan value is reviewed based on the ratio between the primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative plan value PV will be described. (Step S1-2) By performing an operation to input information indicating the target production amount of the chemical substance for the first period and a threshold value into the operation unit 108, the acquisition unit 103 acquires information indicating the target production amount of the chemical substance for the first period and a threshold value. (Step S2-2) The plan creation unit 104 acquires information indicating the target production amount of the chemical substance for the first period from the acquisition unit 103. The plan creation unit 104 creates a primary production plan value for the second period based on the acquired information indicating the target production amount of the chemical substance for the first period and stores the information in the storage unit 110.

[0067] (Step S3-2) The determination unit 106 acquires one or more pieces of information indicating actual production values ​​of chemical substances acquired from the start of the first period to the present, from the storage unit 110. (Step S4-2) The determination unit 106 acquires one or more pieces of information indicating primary production plan values ​​of chemical substances for the second period created from the start of the first period to the present, from the storage unit 110. (Step S5-2) The determination unit 106 derives a primary cumulative actual value EV and a primary cumulative planned value PV.

[0068] (Step S6-2) The determination unit 106 performs a primary production plan value determination process based on information indicating the primary cumulative actual value EV and information indicating the primary cumulative plan value PV. (Step S7-2) The determination unit 106 determines whether the ratio between the primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative plan value PV is less than a threshold value. If the ratio between the primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative plan value PV is not less than the threshold value, the primary production plan value is maintained as the production plan value for the next, second period, and the process proceeds to step S3-2.

[0069] (Step S8-2) When the ratio between the primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative planned value PV is less than the threshold, the determination unit 106 generates a corrected planned value by correcting the primary production planned value for the next second period. (Step S9-2) The determination unit 106 reflects the corrected planned value obtained by correcting the primary production planned value for the next second period as the primary production planned value for the next second period. Then, the process proceeds to step S3-2.

[0070] In the above-described embodiment, the primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative planned value PV are derived in the production plan creation device 100. However, this is not limiting. For example, the primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative planned value PV may be derived by a device other than the production plan creation device 100, such as the communication connection server 300. In this case, the production plan creation device 100 acquires the primary cumulative actual value EV and the primary cumulative planned value PV derived by the other device.

[0071] In the above-described embodiment, the case where solar energy and wind energy are mainly applied as examples of variable renewable energy has been described, but the present invention is not limited to this example. For example, other variable renewable energy such as tidal energy may be applied. In the above-described embodiment, the case where ammonia is applied as an example of a chemical substance has been described, but other chemical substances may be applied.

[0072] In the above-described embodiment, a plurality of plants may be controlled by the plant control system 1. In this case, plant identification information may be acquired in each step. In the above-described embodiment, the monthly power generation amount may be calculated for each power generation facility, or the monthly planned production amount (total) may be calculated based on the total renewable energy power generation amount from past power generation results, etc.

[0073] In the above-described embodiment, before performing an operation to input information indicating the target production amount of the chemical substance for the first period into the operation unit 108, the operator may perform an operation to input information indicating a target value of the production amount for a third period longer than the first period (hereinafter referred to as a "long-term target production amount"). In this way, the acquisition unit 103 acquires information indicating the long-term target production amount of the chemical substance for the third period. An example of the third period is one year, and the target production amount of the chemical substance for the third period may correspond to a long-term production plan or an offtake contract amount. An example of a long-term production plan is an annual production plan. Below, the explanation will continue for the case where the third period is one year as an example.

[0074] The production planning device 100 creates a long-term operation plan based on a long-term production plan for the operation of the plant 400. The production planning device 100 registers the created long-term operation plan in a database (not shown). The operation control device 200 acquires the long-term operation plan registered in the database by the production planning device 100. The operation control device 200 creates plant operation control information for controlling the operation of the plant 400 based on the acquired long-term operation plan, and transmits the information to the plant control device 450.

[0075] The long-term target production amount of the chemical substance for the third time period may be a target production amount of the chemical substance derived from wind power or a target production amount of the chemical substance derived from solar power. The target production amount of the chemical substance for the third time period may include both the target production amount of the chemical substance derived from wind power and the target production amount of the chemical substance derived from solar power.

[0076] The plan creation unit 104 acquires information indicating the long-term target production amount of the chemical substance for the third period from the acquisition unit 103. The plan creation unit 104 creates information indicating the target production amount for the first period based on the acquired information indicating the long-term target production amount of the chemical substance for the third period. Specifically, the plan creation unit 104 creates the target production amount for the first period by breaking down the long-term target production amount of the chemical substance for the third period into the target value of the production amount for the first period, which is shorter than the third period.

[0077] FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating an example of processing performed by the production plan creation device 100 according to this embodiment. For example, the plan creation unit 104 creates information indicating the target production amount of the chemical substance for the first period by breaking down the long-term target production amount of the chemical substance for the third period into the target production amount of the chemical substance for the first period based on either or both of the analysis results of past weather information and the analysis results of past power generation performance. For example, the plan creation unit 104 increases the target production amount for a first period among multiple first periods in which the amount of solar radiation is expected to be high compared to the target production amounts for the other first periods. As shown in FIG. 9 , the target production amount for the first period is higher than that for the other months because the amount of solar radiation is expected to be high from July to September.

[0078] Specifically, for example, the plan creation unit 104 breaks down the long-term target production volume of a chemical substance for the third period into the target production volume for the first period by performing the following process: [1] The plan creation unit 104 calculates statistical values ​​of monthly wind power generation and monthly solar power generation from wind condition data, solar radiation data, and specifications of the renewable energy power generation facility. Here, the specifications of the renewable energy power generation facility refer to the equipment specifications (power generation efficiency, coefficients) of the power generation facility according to the solar radiation or wind conditions. For example, the plan creation unit 104 calculates the wind power generation volume for the first period (monthly) by multiplying the wind condition data by the power generation efficiency of the renewable energy power generation facility. Furthermore, the plan creation unit 104 calculates the solar power generation volume for the first period (monthly) by multiplying the solar radiation data by the power generation efficiency of the renewable energy power generation facility. For example, the monthly wind power generation volume and monthly solar power generation volume are calculated based on past power generation results for the same month, and the annual wind power generation volume and annual solar power generation volume are calculated taking into account annual seasonal fluctuations. If the actual amount of power generated by solar power, the actual amount of power generated by wind power, etc. is known, the process of [1] may be omitted.

[0079] [2] The plan creation unit 104 calculates a monthly production plan from the calculated monthly wind power generation amount, monthly solar power generation amount, and schedule of regular maintenance work (shutdown maintenance (SDM)). The operator performs an operation to input information indicating the regular maintenance work schedule into the operation unit 108. As a result, the acquisition unit 103 acquires the information indicating the regular maintenance work schedule. The plan creation unit 104 acquires the information indicating the regular maintenance work schedule from the acquisition unit 103. The plan creation unit 104 calculates the target production amount of the chemical substance derived from wind power from the long-term target production amount for the third period, the number of operating days of the plant for the chemical substance for the first period, the total number of operating days (per year) of the plant, the wind power generation amount for the first period, and the total power generation amount for the first period, for example, using equation (3). Target production amount of chemical substance derived from wind power=long-term target production amount for third period×number of operation days of chemical substance plant for first period / total number of operation days of plant×wind power generation amount for first period / total power generation amount for first period (3) The plan creation unit 104 calculates the target production amount of chemical substance derived from sunlight from the long-term target production amount for the third period, the number of operation days of the chemical substance plant for the first period, the total number of operation days of the plant, the amount of solar power generation for the first period, and the total power generation amount for the first period, for example, using formula (4). Target production amount of chemical substance derived from sunlight=long-term target production amount for third period×number of operation days of chemical substance plant for the first period / total number of operation days of the plant×solar power generation amount for first period / total power generation amount for first period (4)

[0080] If it is possible to obtain the monthly planned production amount of solar-derived chemical substances and the monthly scheduled production amount of wind-derived chemical substances that take into account both the actual amount of power generation by solar power, the actual amount of power generation by wind power, and the long-term plant shutdown schedule, such as shutdown maintenance, the above-mentioned processes [1] and [2] may be omitted.

[0081] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing another example of the operation of the plant control system 1 of this embodiment. Referring to FIG. 10 , a process will be described when the production planning device 100 acquires information indicating the long-term target production volume of the production volume for the third period. (Step S1-3) The operator inputs information indicating the long-term target production volume of the production volume for the third period into the operation unit 108, whereby the acquisition unit 103 acquires information indicating the long-term target production volume of the chemical substance for the third period. (Step S2-3) The plan creation unit 104 acquires information indicating the long-term target production volume of the chemical substance for the third period from the acquisition unit 103. The plan creation unit 104 creates information indicating the target production volume for the first period based on the acquired information indicating the long-term target production volume of the chemical substance for the third period. Steps S2-2 to S9-2 in FIG. 8 can be applied to steps S3-3 to S10-3, and therefore, description thereof will be omitted.

[0082] According to an embodiment of the plant control system 1, the production planning device 100 creates a production plan for a chemical substance produced using hydrogen derived from variable renewable energy as a raw material. The production planning device 100 includes an acquisition unit 103 that acquires information indicating a target production volume, which is a target value for the production volume for a first period, and a plan creation unit 104 that breaks down the target production volume for the first period into a primary production plan value, which is a production plan volume for a second period that is shorter than the first period. The acquisition unit 103 acquires a primary cumulative actual value, which is an accumulated value of a primary actual value from the start of the first period to the present, and a primary cumulative planned value, which is an accumulated value of a primary production plan value from the start of the first period to the present, which are information indicating the actual production volume for each period in the second period. The production planning device 100 also includes a determination unit 106 that generates a corrected planned value by correcting the primary production plan value for the next second period when a value derived based on the primary cumulative actual value and the primary cumulative planned value is less than a predetermined threshold, and that maintains the primary production plan value for the next second period and reflects it as the primary production plan value for the next second period when the value is equal to or greater than the threshold.

[0083] With this configuration, when a value derived based on the primary cumulative actual value and the primary cumulative planned value is less than a predetermined threshold, the production plan creation device 100 generates a corrected planned value by correcting the primary production planned value for the next second period and reflects it as the primary production planned value for the next second period. Therefore, the primary production planned value for the next second period can be revised as needed to meet the target production volume for the first period. For example, a medium-term (e.g., monthly) or short-term (e.g., daily) advance production plan for green chemicals (e.g., ammonia) can be created based on offtake contract information, etc. Furthermore, when discrepancies are expected between the operating algorithm executed by the operation control device 200 and actual operating results, the discrepancies can be appropriately corrected, and the production plan can be revised as needed to prevent production from being delayed relative to the offtake contract.

[0084] In the production plan creation device 100, when the difference or ratio between the primary cumulative actual value and the primary cumulative planned value is less than a preset threshold, the decision unit 106 distributes the difference between the primary cumulative actual value and the primary cumulative planned value over the remaining second period and generates a corrected planned value for the next second period. By being configured in this manner, the production plan creation device 100 can distribute the difference between the primary cumulative actual value and the primary cumulative planned value over the remaining second period and generate a corrected planned value for the next second period, so that the primary cumulative actual value can gradually approach the primary cumulative planned value compared to a case where the difference between the primary cumulative actual value and the primary cumulative planned value is not distributed.

[0085] In the production plan creation device 100, the acquisition unit 103 acquires information indicating a long-term target production volume, which is a target value for production volume for a third period longer than the first period, before acquiring the target value for production volume for the first period, and the plan creation unit 104 calculates the amount of wind power generation or solar power generation for the first period using wind condition data and the power generation efficiency of the renewable energy power generation facility, or solar radiation data and the power generation efficiency of the renewable energy power generation facility, and breaks down the long-term target production volume for the third period into the target production volume for the first period based on the calculated value. By configuring in this way, the production plan creation device 100 can calculate the amount of wind power generation or solar power generation for the first period using wind condition data and the power generation efficiency of the renewable energy power generation facility, or solar radiation data and the power generation efficiency of the renewable energy power generation facility, and break down the long-term target production volume for the third period into the target production volume for the first period based on the calculated value, so that the primary production plan value for the next second period can be revised as necessary to satisfy the long-term target production volume for the third period.

[0086] In the production plan creation device 100, the target production amount for the first period includes both the target production amount of chemical substances derived from wind power and the target production amount of chemical substances derived from sunlight. By configuring in this manner, the production plan creation device 100 can break down the target production amount for the first period, which includes the target production amount of chemical substances derived from wind power and the target production amount of chemical substances derived from sunlight, into primary production plan values ​​for the second period.

[0087] In the production plan creation device 100, the plan creation unit 104 calculates the target production amount of the chemical substance derived from wind power based on the following equation: Target production amount of the chemical substance derived from wind power = long-term target production amount for the third period × number of operating days of the chemical substance manufacturing plant for the first period / total number of operating days of the manufacturing plant × wind power generation amount for the first period / total power generation amount for the first period. By configuring in this way, the production plan creation device 100 can calculate the target production amount of the chemical substance derived from wind power, and therefore can perform the calculation with higher accuracy compared to a case where the calculation is not based on any of the long-term target production amount for the third period, the number of operating days of the chemical substance manufacturing plant for the first period, and the total number of operating days of the manufacturing plant.

[0088] In the production plan creation device 100, the plan creation unit 104 calculates the target production amount of the solar-derived chemical substance based on the following equation: Target production amount of the solar-derived chemical substance = long-term target production amount for the third period × number of operating days of the chemical substance manufacturing plant for the first period / total number of operating days of the manufacturing plant × solar power generation amount for the first period / total power generation amount for the first period. By configuring in this way, the production plan creation device 100 can calculate the target production amount of the solar-derived chemical substance, and therefore can perform the calculation with higher accuracy compared to a case where the calculation is not based on any of the long-term target production amount of the chemical substance for the third period, the number of operating days of the chemical substance manufacturing plant for the first period, and the total number of operating days of the manufacturing plant.

[0089] Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described above in detail with reference to the drawings, the specific configuration is not limited to this embodiment, and design modifications and the like are also included within the scope of the present invention. For example, a computer program for realizing the functions of each of the above-described devices may be recorded on a computer-readable recording medium, and the computer program recorded on this recording medium may be read and executed by a computer system. Note that the "computer system" referred to here may also include hardware such as an OS and peripheral devices.

[0090] Additionally, "computer-readable recording media" refers to writable non-volatile memory such as flexible disks, magneto-optical disks, ROMs, and flash memories, portable media such as DVDs (Digital Versatile Discs), and storage devices such as hard disks built into computer systems. Furthermore, "computer-readable recording media" also includes devices that retain a program for a certain period of time, such as volatile memory (e.g., DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory)) within computer systems that act as servers or clients when a computer program is transmitted via a network such as the Internet or a communication line such as a telephone line.

[0091] The program may also be transmitted from a computer system storing the program in a storage device or the like to another computer system via a transmission medium or by transmission waves in the transmission medium. Here, the "transmission medium" that transmits the program refers to a medium that has the function of transmitting information, such as a network (communication network) such as the Internet or a communication line (communication line) such as a telephone line. The program may also be a program that realizes part of the aforementioned functions. Furthermore, the program may be a so-called differential file (differential program) that can realize the aforementioned functions in combination with a program already stored in the computer system.

[0092] 1... Plant control system, 2... Power supply device, 100... Production plan creation device, 101... Communication unit, 102... Reception unit, 103... Acquisition unit, 104... Plan creation unit, 105... Storage processing unit, 106... Determination unit, 108... Operation unit, 109... Display unit, 110... Memory unit, 200... Operation control device, 300... Communication connection server, 400... Plant, 410... First manufacturing equipment, 420... Storage device, 430... Flow control valve, 440... Second manufacturing equipment, 450... Plant control device, 452... Input / output unit, 454... Hydrogen supply amount determination unit, 456... Parameter memory unit, 458... Supply amount actual memory unit, 460... Remaining storage amount acquisition unit

Claims

1. A first step of obtaining information indicating a target production volume, which is a target value of the production volume in a first period; a second step of breaking down the target production volume in the first period into a primary production plan value, which is a production plan volume in a second period shorter than the first period; a third step of obtaining a primary cumulative actual value, which is a cumulative value from the start of the first period to the present of the primary actual value, which is information indicating the actual production volume in each period in the second period, and a primary cumulative planned value, which is a cumulative value from the start of the first period to the present of the primary production plan value; and a fourth step of generating a corrected plan value obtained by correcting the primary production plan value in the next second period when a value derived based on the primary cumulative actual value and the primary cumulative planned value is less than a preset threshold value, and maintaining the primary production plan value in the next second period and reflecting it as the primary production plan value in the next second period when it is equal to or greater than the threshold value. A method for creating a production plan for a chemical substance produced using hydrogen derived from variable renewable energy as a raw material.

2. In the fourth step, when the difference or ratio between the primary cumulative actual value and the primary cumulative planned value is less than a preset threshold value, the difference between the primary cumulative actual value and the primary cumulative planned value is distributed over the remaining second periods to generate the corrected plan value in the next second period. The method for creating a production plan according to claim 1.

3. Before the first step, an obtaining step of obtaining information indicating a long-term target production volume, which is a target value of the production volume in a third period longer than the first period; and a breakdown step of breaking down the long-term target production volume in the third period into the target production volume in the first period. In the breakdown step, the long-term target production volume in the third period is used to calculate the wind power generation volume or solar power generation volume in the first period by using wind condition data and the power generation efficiency of the renewable energy power generation facility, or solar radiation amount data and the power generation efficiency of the renewable energy power generation facility, and is broken down into the target production volume in the first period based on the calculated value. The method for creating a production plan according to claim 1.

4. The target production volume in the first period includes the target production volume of the chemical substance derived from wind power and the target production volume of the chemical substance derived from sunlight. The method for creating a production plan according to claim 3.

5. In the breakdown step, the target production amount of the chemical substance derived from wind power is calculated based on: Target production amount of chemical substance derived from wind power = Long-term target production amount in the third period × Number of operating days of the manufacturing plant of the chemical substance in the first period / Total number of operating days of the manufacturing plant × Wind power generation amount in the first period / Total power generation amount in the first period The method for creating a production plan according to claim 4.

6. In the breakdown step, the target production amount of the chemical substance derived from sunlight is calculated based on: Target production amount of chemical substance derived from sunlight = Long-term target production amount in the third period × Number of operating days of the manufacturing plant of the chemical substance in the first period / Total number of operating days of the manufacturing plant × Solar power generation amount in the first period / Total power generation amount in the first period The method for creating a production plan according to claim 4.

7. An acquisition unit that acquires information indicating a target production amount, which is the target value of the production amount in the first period; A planning unit that breaks down the target production amount in the first period into a primary production plan value, which is the production plan amount in a second period shorter than the first period; An acquisition of a primary cumulative actual value, which is the cumulative value from the start of the first period to the present of the primary actual value, which is information indicating the actual production amount in each period in the second period, and a primary cumulative planned value, which is the cumulative value from the start of the first period to the present of the primary production plan value; A determination unit that generates a corrected plan value obtained by correcting the primary production plan value in the next second period when a value derived based on the primary cumulative actual value and the primary cumulative planned value is less than a preset threshold value, maintains the primary production plan value in the next second period when the value is greater than or equal to the threshold value, and reflects it as the primary production plan value in the next second period. A production plan creation device for a chemical substance produced using hydrogen derived from variable renewable energy as a raw material.

8. A program that causes a computer of a production plan creation device for a chemical substance produced using hydrogen derived from variable renewable energy as a raw material to execute: a first step of acquiring information indicating a target production amount that is a target value of the production amount in a first period; a second step of breaking down the target production amount in the first period into a primary production plan value that is a production plan amount in a second period shorter than the first period; a third step of acquiring a primary cumulative actual value that is a cumulative value from the start of the first period to the present of a primary actual value that is information indicating the actual production amount in each period in the second period, and a primary cumulative planned value that is a cumulative value from the start of the first period to the present of the primary production plan value; and a fourth step of generating a corrected plan value obtained by correcting the primary production plan value in the next second period when a value derived based on the primary cumulative actual value and the primary cumulative planned value is less than a preset threshold value, maintaining the primary production plan value in the next second period when the value is greater than or equal to the threshold value, and reflecting it as the primary production plan value in the next second period.

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