Presentation device and presentation method

Abstract

A presentation device (10), wherein an acquisition unit (15a) acquires observation data on the occurrence of a state transition by a plurality of persons under an OA condition indicating a state in which a plurality of persons can observe each other. A conversion unit (15b) converts the time axis of the acquired observation data by a state transition probability at each time by the plurality of persons under a UA condition indicating a state in which a plurality of persons cannot observe each other. A calculation unit (15c) calculates, by using the occurrence interval of the state transition of the converted observation data, the degree of conformance indicating the degree of a conforming behavior that represents a mutually conforming state transition by the plurality of persons.

Description

Presentation device and presentation method

[0001] The present invention relates to a presentation device and a presentation method.

[0002] It is expected that the occurrence of conformity behavior can be detected in decision-making situations in human groups. For example, when making a decision, an individual may behave in a manner that conforms with the group by observing the surroundings or sharing information. If such a decision is widely adopted within the group, conformity behavior as a group may occur.

[0003] The occurrence of conformity behavior can be beneficial to a group, but can also be detrimental. For example, if one conforms to a decision not to evacuate despite an evacuation advisory being issued, there is a concern that one will be late in escaping. Therefore, it is necessary to detect the occurrence of conformity behavior in a group and take appropriate measures to prevent the group from suffering any disadvantages (see Non-Patent Documents 1 to 3).

[0004] “What is conformity behavior? The advantages and disadvantages of conformity behavior,” [online], September 2019, Mynavi Woman, [Retrieved January 9, 2024], Internet <URL:https: / / woman.mynavi.jp / article / 190930-28 / ><URL:https: / / woman.mynavi.jp / article / 190930-28 / 2 / ><URL:https: / / woman.mynavi.jp / article / 190930-28 / 3 / > Shunno Yamashita and five others, "Modeling of Group Evacuation Behavior with Conformity Bias and Nudge Design Based on Passivity," Transactions of the Society of Instrument and Control Engineers, 2022, vol. 58, no. 3, pp. 120-128, [online], March 2022, [Retrieved January 9, 2024], Internet<URL:https: / / www.jstage.jst.go.jp / article / sicetr / 58 / 3 / 58_120 / _pdf / -char / ja> Junji Urata, Eiji Hatou, "Evaluation of the influence of evacuation by others and human networks on the selection of evacuation start during heavy rain disasters," Journal of the Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2017, vol. 73, no. 1, pp. 24-39, [online], Journal of the Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2017, [Retrieved January 9, 2024], Internet<URL:https: / / www.jstage.jst.go.jp / article / jscejipm / 73 / 1 / 73_24 / _pdf / -char / ja>

[0005] However, there is no quantitative indicator of the occurrence of conformity behavior from the state transitions of each individual, which makes it difficult to detect the occurrence of conformity behavior in decision-making situations in human groups.

[0006] The present invention has been made in view of the above, and has as its object to make it possible to detect the occurrence of conformity behavior in decision-making situations in human groups.

[0007] In order to solve the above-mentioned problems and achieve the objectives, the presentation device of the present invention is characterized by having an acquisition unit that acquires observation data of the occurrence of state transitions by multiple people in a state where the multiple people can observe each other, a conversion unit that converts the time axis of the acquired observation data using the state transition probability at each time by the multiple people in a state where the multiple people cannot observe each other, and a calculation unit that calculates a synchronization degree that indicates the degree of mutual synchronization of state transitions by the multiple people using the occurrence interval of state transitions in the converted observation data.

[0008] According to the present invention, it is possible to detect the occurrence of conformity behavior in decision-making situations involving human groups.

[0009] FIG. 1 is a diagram for explaining an overview of a presentation device according to this embodiment. FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating a general configuration of the presentation device according to this embodiment. FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining presentation processing. FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining presentation processing. FIG. 5 is a diagram for explaining presentation processing. FIG. 6 is a diagram for explaining presentation processing. FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing a presentation processing procedure. FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating an example of a computer that executes a presentation program.

[0010] Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. Note that the present invention is not limited to this embodiment. In addition, in the description of the drawings, the same parts are designated by the same reference numerals.

[0011] [Outline of Presentation Device] Fig. 1 is a diagram for explaining an outline of the presentation device of this embodiment. In the following description, a state transition is defined as any behavior in which some attribute of an individual changes discretely, such as when a person's attribute of "means of transportation" changes from "walking" to "car." Furthermore, only one-way state transitions such as from "state A" to "state B" (hereinafter referred to as non-reversible state transitions) are considered.

[0012] In a non-reversible state transition, the decision of an individual (agent) to transition from state A to state B is called "decision making." The occurrence of a state transition due to a decision to transition is called "event occurrence."

[0013] In this case, the timing of the decision can be any timing on a given time axis. Also, since it is a non-reversible system, once a decision is made to "transition" from state A to state B, there is no return to state A. On the other hand, if a decision is made to "not transition," the state remains in A. Therefore, once an agent makes a decision to transition from state A to state B, the timing of the decision will not occur again on the time axis.

[0014] Furthermore, possible types of decision-making are the OA (Observable Other Agents) condition and the UA (Unobservable Other Agents) condition. The OA condition is when events of other agents can be observed when many agents make decisions under the same conditions. The UA condition is when events of other agents cannot be observed when many agents make decisions under the same conditions.

[0015] In addition, synchronized behavior in irreversible system state transitions refers to a pronounced tendency to make decisions at the same or similar timing as others. When synchronized behavior is observed from the outside, it is observed as a phenomenon in which the majority of agents make state transitions at the same timing.

[0016] Therefore, the presentation device of this embodiment collects observation data of state transitions under OA conditions under the condition that the state transition probability at each time under UA conditions for a certain non-reversible system state transition is given, and calculates and presents the synchronization degree as an index indicating the degree of synchronization.

[0017] [Configuration of Presentation Device] Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating the overall configuration of the presentation device of this embodiment. Also, Figs. 3 to 6 are diagrams for explaining the presentation process. First, as illustrated in Fig. 2, the presentation device 10 of this embodiment is realized by a general-purpose computer such as a personal computer, and includes an input unit 11, an output unit 12, a communication control unit 13, a storage unit 14, and a control unit 15.

[0018] The input unit 11 is realized using input devices such as a keyboard and a mouse, and inputs various instruction information such as a command to start processing to the control unit 15 in response to an input operation by an operator. The output unit 12 is realized by a display device such as a liquid crystal display, a printing device such as a printer, etc. For example, the output unit 12 displays the results of the presentation processing described below.

[0019] The communication control unit 13 is realized by a NIC (Network Interface Card) or the like, and controls communication between the control unit 15 and external devices via telecommunication lines such as a LAN (Local Area Network) or the Internet. For example, the communication control unit 13 controls communication between the control unit 15 and a management device or the like that manages various types of information.

[0020] The storage unit 14 is realized by a semiconductor memory element such as a RAM (Random Access Memory) or a flash memory, or a storage device such as a hard disk or an optical disk. The storage unit 14 stores in advance the processing program that operates the presentation device 10 and data used during execution of the processing program, or temporarily stores the data each time processing is performed. The storage unit 14 may be configured to communicate with the control unit 15 via the communication control unit 13.

[0021] The control unit 15 is realized using a CPU (Central Processing Unit), an NP (Network Processor), an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array), or the like, and executes a processing program stored in memory. As a result, the control unit 15 functions as an acquisition unit 15a, a conversion unit 15b, and a calculation unit 15c, as illustrated in FIG. 2, and executes the presentation process. Note that these functional units may be implemented individually or in part in different hardware. The control unit 15 may also include other functional units.

[0022] The acquisition unit 15a acquires observation data of state transitions occurring among multiple people in a state in which the multiple people can observe each other. That is, the acquisition unit 15a acquires observation data of event occurrence timing under OA conditions. For example, the acquisition unit 15a acquires observation data of event occurrence as shown in FIG. 3 from a management device that collects and manages observation data, via the input unit 11 or the communication control unit 13. FIG. 3 illustrates the time when an agent makes a "state transition."

[0023] The converter 15b converts the time axis of the acquired observation data using the state transition probability at each time of multiple people in a state where the multiple people cannot observe each other. In other words, the converter 15b converts the time axis of the observation data using the irreversible state transition probability at each time given under the UA condition.

[0024] Here, the state transition probability of a non-reversible system under UA conditions is expressed as a function λ(a) of a predetermined transition index a, as shown in FIG. 4(a). For example, the probability λ of the state transition "bring an umbrella" is expressed as a function of the transition index a, which is the "probability of precipitation at each time point." Note that λ(a) is calculated, for example, using regression from event occurrence data under UA conditions.

[0025] This transition index a is expressed as a function a(t) that changes with time t, as shown in Fig. 4(b). Therefore, the state transition probability λ(a) is expressed as a function λ(a(t)) of time t, as shown in Fig. 4(c).

[0026] Therefore, the conversion unit 15b expresses the events occurring at each time t in the observation data illustrated in Fig. 5(a) using the state transition probability λ(a(t)) as shown in the following equation (1). As a result, the time axis t is expanded or contracted and converted into t' as illustrated in Fig. 5(b).

[0027]

[0028] Here, under UA conditions and without synchronized behavior, the occurrence intervals of state transitions in a non-reversible system become uniform. Specifically, as shown in Figure 6(a), the histogram of the number of event occurrences in a certain time interval [a, b] becomes a uniform distribution.

[0029] In contrast, if synchronized behavior exists, it is estimated that the histogram of the number of occurrences of events will not have a uniform distribution, as shown in the example of FIG. 6(b).

[0030] Therefore, the calculation unit 15c calculates the degree of synchronization, which indicates the degree of synchronized behavior, which is state transitions that are synchronized with each other by a plurality of people, using the occurrence intervals of state transitions in the converted observation data.

[0031] Specifically, the calculation unit 15c calculates the degree of deviation of the occurrence interval of state transitions in the observation data from a uniform occurrence interval as the synchrony. For example, the calculation unit 15c compares the observation data with data having the same number of state transitions as the observation data at uniform occurrence intervals, and calculates the degree of deviation of the observation data from the uniform data as the synchrony.

[0032] Therefore, the calculation unit 15c first generates dummy data to be compared with the observed data. The dummy data is data in which the same number of events as the observed data are distributed at equal intervals over the same time period, so that the event occurrence intervals are uniform. The calculation unit 15c then compares the dummy data with the observed data to calculate the degree of deviation of the observed data from the uniform distribution.

[0033] For example, the calculation unit 15c calculates the degree of deviation of the observed data from the dummy data using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the Fano factor, the coefficient of variation, etc. Then, the calculation unit 15c calculates the degree of deviation of the observed data from the uniform distribution as a degree of conformity that indicates the occurrence degree of conforming behavior, and presents it to the user via, for example, the output unit 12, etc.

[0034] This provides an index that quantitatively indicates the occurrence of synchronized behavior, making it possible to detect synchronized behavior.

[0035] [Presentation Process] Next, the presentation process by the presentation device 10 according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 7. Fig. 7 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the presentation process. The flowchart in Fig. 7 starts, for example, when the user performs an operation input to instruct the start of the process.

[0036] First, the acquiring unit 15a acquires observation data of occurrence of state transitions by multiple people under OA conditions in which multiple people can observe each other (step S1). That is, the acquiring unit 15a acquires observation data of event occurrence timings under OA conditions.

[0037] Next, the converter 15b converts the time axis of the acquired observation data by the state transition probability at each time of the multiple people under the UA condition in which the multiple people cannot observe each other (step S2). In other words, the converter 15b converts the time axis of the observation data by using the state transition probability of a non-reversible system at each time given under the UA condition.

[0038] Next, the calculation unit 15c calculates a degree of synchronization indicating the degree of synchronized behavior, which is a state transition that is synchronized with each other by a plurality of people, using the occurrence interval of the state transition in the converted observation data (step S3).

[0039] Specifically, the calculation unit 15c calculates the degree of deviation of the occurrence interval of state transitions in the observation data from a uniform occurrence interval as the synchronism. For example, the calculation unit 15c compares the observation data with dummy data having the same number of state transitions as the observation data and uniform occurrence intervals, thereby calculating the degree of deviation of the observation data from the uniform data as the synchronism.

[0040] The calculation unit 15c then displays the calculated synchronization degree on the output unit 12 or the like to present it to the user (step S4), thereby completing the series of presentation processes.

[0041] [Effects] As described above, in the presentation device 10 of this embodiment, the acquisition unit 15a acquires observation data of the occurrence of state transitions by multiple people under OA conditions, which indicate a state in which multiple people can observe each other. The conversion unit 15b converts the time axis of the acquired observation data using the state transition probability at each time point by the multiple people under UA conditions, which indicate a state in which multiple people cannot observe each other. The calculation unit 15c uses the occurrence intervals of state transitions in the converted observation data to calculate a synchronization degree, which indicates the degree of synchronized behavior, which is the state transitions that are synchronized with each other by the multiple people.

[0042] Specifically, the calculation unit 15c calculates the degree of deviation of the occurrence interval of state transitions in the observation data from a uniform occurrence interval as the synchrony. For example, the calculation unit 15c compares the observation data with data having the same number of state transitions as the observation data at uniform occurrence intervals, and calculates the degree of deviation of the observation data from the uniform data as the synchrony.

[0043] This allows the presentation device 10 to present the degree of conformity as an index that quantitatively indicates the occurrence of conformity behavior, thereby making it possible to detect the occurrence of conformity behavior in decision-making situations in human groups.

[0044] Furthermore, by using such a presentation device 10, it becomes possible to create a behavior simulation that takes into account group characteristics, and to avoid crowd events by utilizing the degree of synchronized behavior.

[0045] [Program] A program written in a computer-executable language may be created to execute the processes executed by the presentation device 10 according to the above embodiment. In one embodiment, the presentation device 10 can be implemented by installing a presentation program that executes the above presentation process as package software or online software on a desired computer. For example, by executing the presentation program on an information processing device, the information processing device can function as the presentation device 10. The information processing device referred to here includes desktop and notebook personal computers. Other examples of information processing devices include mobile communication terminals such as smartphones, mobile phones, and PHS (Personal Handyphone Systems), as well as slate terminals such as PDAs (Personal Digital Assistants). The functions of the presentation device 10 may also be implemented on a cloud server.

[0046] 8 is a diagram showing an example of a computer that executes a presentation program. The computer 1000 includes, for example, a memory 1010, a CPU 1020, a hard disk drive interface 1030, a disk drive interface 1040, a serial port interface 1050, a video adapter 1060, and a network interface 1070. These components are connected by a bus 1080.

[0047] The memory 1010 includes a ROM (Read Only Memory) 1011 and a RAM 1012. The ROM 1011 stores a boot program such as a BIOS (Basic Input Output System). The hard disk drive interface 1030 is connected to a hard disk drive 1031. The disk drive interface 1040 is connected to a disk drive 1041. A removable storage medium such as a magnetic disk or optical disk is inserted into the disk drive 1041. The serial port interface 1050 is connected to a mouse 1051 and a keyboard 1052, for example. The video adapter 1060 is connected to a display 1061, for example.

[0048] Here, the hard disk drive 1031 stores, for example, an OS (Operating System) 1091, an application program 1092, a program module 1093, and program data 1094. The various pieces of information described in the above embodiments are stored in the hard disk drive 1031 or the memory 1010, for example.

[0049] The presentation program is stored in the hard disk drive 1031 as, for example, a program module 1093 in which instructions to be executed by the computer 1000 are written. Specifically, the program module 1093 in which each process executed by the presentation device 10 described in the above embodiment is written is stored in the hard disk drive 1031.

[0050] Data used for information processing by the presentation program is stored as program data 1094, for example, in the hard disk drive 1031. Then, the CPU 1020 reads the program module 1093 and the program data 1094 stored in the hard disk drive 1031 into the RAM 1012 as necessary, and executes each of the above-described procedures.

[0051] The program module 1093 and program data 1094 related to the presentation program are not limited to being stored in the hard disk drive 1031, and may be stored in, for example, a removable storage medium and read by the CPU 1020 via the disk drive 1041. Alternatively, the program module 1093 and program data 1094 related to the presentation program may be stored in another computer connected via a network such as a LAN or a WAN (Wide Area Network), and read by the CPU 1020 via the network interface 1070.

[0052] Although the present invention has been described above as an embodiment, the present invention is not limited to the description and drawings that form part of the disclosure of the present invention. In other words, other embodiments, examples, and operational techniques that can be made by those skilled in the art based on the present invention are all included in the scope of the present invention.

[0053] REFERENCE SIGNS LIST 10 Presentation device 11 Input unit 12 Output unit 13 Communication control unit 14 Storage unit 15 Control unit 15a Acquisition unit 15b Conversion unit 15c Calculation unit

Claims

1. A presentation device comprising: an acquisition unit that acquires observation data of the occurrence of state transitions by multiple people in a state where the multiple people can observe each other; a conversion unit that converts the time axis of the acquired observation data using the state transition probability at each time by the multiple people in a state where the multiple people cannot observe each other; and a calculation unit that calculates a synchronization degree that indicates the degree to which the state transitions by the multiple people are synchronized with each other, using the occurrence intervals of state transitions in the converted observation data.

2. The presentation device according to claim 1, wherein the calculation unit calculates the degree of deviation of the occurrence interval of the state transition of the observation data from a uniform occurrence interval as the synchrony.

3. The presentation device according to claim 2, characterized in that the calculation unit compares the observation data with data in which the same number of state transitions occur at uniform intervals as the observation data, and calculates the degree of deviation of the observation data from the uniform data as the degree of synchronization.

4. A presentation method executed by a presentation device, comprising: an acquisition step of acquiring observation data of occurrence of state transitions by multiple people in a state where the multiple people can observe each other; a conversion step of converting the time axis of the acquired observation data using the state transition probability at each time by the multiple people in a state where the multiple people cannot observe each other; and a calculation step of calculating a synchronization degree indicating the degree of mutual synchronization of state transitions by the multiple people using the occurrence interval of state transitions in the converted observation data.

Images