Electric power management device, electric power management method, and program

Abstract

This electric power management device comprises: a spot price acquiring unit (11) that acquires a spot price on the wholesale electric power market for a target period; an imbalance price acquiring unit (for example, an imbalance price predicting unit (12)) that acquires an imbalance price for the target period; a loss unit price predicting unit (14) that predicts a loss unit price for the target period on the basis of the spot price and the imbalance price; and an expected loss predicting unit (15) that predicts, on the basis of the loss unit price, an expected loss due to a shift in demand for a combination of slots in which a shift in demand from a first time slot to a second time slot in the target period is possible by controlling equipment that is the subject of demand response.

Description

Power management device, power management method, and program

[0001] The present invention relates to a power management device, a power management method, and a program.

[0002] With the recent liberalization of the electricity retail market, many electricity retailers have begun selling electricity. In order to stabilize a power grid with multiple electricity retailers, each electricity retailer must constantly maintain a balance between supply and demand. This has made it increasingly important to adjust the balance between supply and demand. One method for achieving this is demand response (DR), which changes the electricity demand pattern of consumers in response to requests from electricity retailers.

[0003] Patent Document 1 discloses a demand response system that can ensure the benefits of both electricity retailers and service users in order to continuously popularize demand response to a greater number of consumers.

[0004] JP 2023-082410 A

[0005] However, the technology of Patent Document 1 changes the reward given to a service user depending on the service user's performance in participating in demand response, and does not take into account the cost of procuring electricity and imbalance costs, etc., so its effectiveness in terms of ensuring the profits of retail electricity companies is limited.

[0006] Therefore, the present invention provides a power management device, a power management method, and a program that can achieve both a reduction in the procurement cost of procuring power from the spot market and a reduction in the imbalance cost.

[0007] A power management device according to one embodiment of the present invention includes a spot price acquisition unit that acquires spot prices in the wholesale electricity market for a target period; an imbalance price acquisition unit that acquires imbalance prices for the target period; a loss cost prediction unit that predicts a loss cost for the target period based on the spot price and the imbalance price; and an expected loss prediction unit that predicts an expected loss due to a demand shift based on the loss cost for a combination of slots that allows for a demand shift from a first time slot to a second time slot during the target period by controlling equipment that is the target of demand response.

[0008] A power management method according to one aspect of the present invention acquires a spot price in the wholesale electricity market for a target period, acquires an imbalance price for the target period, predicts a loss cost for the target period based on the spot price and the imbalance price, and targets a combination of slots for which a demand shift from a first time slot to a second time slot during the target period is possible by controlling equipment that is the target of demand response, and predicts an expected loss due to the demand shift based on the loss cost.

[0009] A program according to one aspect of the present invention is a program for causing a computer to execute the above-described power management method.

[0010] According to one aspect of the present invention, it is possible to realize a power management device or the like that can achieve both a reduction in the procurement cost of procuring power from the spot market and a reduction in the imbalance cost.

[0011] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing the configuration of an energy management system according to an embodiment. FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of various unit prices over a five-day period. FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining a demand shift according to an embodiment. FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing the operation of an energy management system according to an embodiment. FIG. 5 is a diagram showing downward demand response loss unit prices and upward demand response loss unit prices sorted in ascending order according to the present embodiment.

[0012] (Background to the Invention) Before describing the embodiments of the present invention, the background to the invention will be described. In the following, a retailer of electricity will be referred to as a retail electricity supplier.

[0013] Due to the deregulation of the electric power market, an increasing number of retail electricity suppliers (new power suppliers) rely on procuring electricity from the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX). Specifically, retail electricity suppliers procure electricity for the day (next day) by 10:00 the day before from the spot market (one-day-ahead market), which is a wholesale electricity market operated by JEPX. The spot market price for the day is determined around 10:30 the day before.

[0014] In addition, retail electricity suppliers are required to submit their procurement plans to the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators (OCCTO) by 12:00 the day before, but it is difficult to finalize the demand-side control plan for the day at the time of submission.

[0015] Therefore, it is being considered to implement demand response (DR) after the submission of the procurement plan to OCCTO. DR includes both upward demand response (upward DR) and downward demand response (downward DR). Upward DR increases the demand for electricity (demanded power amount) during a specific time period and is implemented when supply exceeds, or is likely to exceed, demand. Downward DR decreases the demand for electricity (demanded power amount) during a specific time period and is implemented when demand exceeds, or is likely to exceed, supply.

[0016] Examples of equipment to be controlled in DR include electric vehicles (EVs), heat pump water heaters (HPs), storage batteries (SBs), private power generation equipment (e.g., photovoltaic (PV) power generation equipment, diesel power generation equipment, cogeneration systems, etc.), and pump equipment (e.g., water supply and sewerage pumps).

[0017] However, since the control effect of DR is affected by both the income from reduced procurement costs and the loss due to imbalances, it is difficult to create an optimal DR plan.

[0018] Therefore, the inventors of the present application have conducted extensive research into power management devices and the like that can improve the profits of electricity retailers by planning the timing of DR so as to reduce (e.g., minimize) the expected loss, which is the estimated loss amount indicated by the sum of the reduction in procurement costs due to demand shifts and the loss caused by imbalances, and have devised the power management device and the like described below.

[0019] In this specification, a loss means that the profits of an electricity retailer are reduced (or expected to be reduced). A positive loss means that the profits of an electricity retailer are reduced, and a negative loss means that the profits of an electricity retailer are increased. Furthermore, reducing a loss means that the loss is increased in the negative direction (i.e., the profits of an electricity retailer are increased).

[0020] The times and other information shown above are not limited to those mentioned above and may change depending on changes in the system or the country or region.

[0021] The numerical values, shapes, components, the arrangement and connection of the components, steps, the order of steps, and the like shown in the following embodiments are merely examples and are not intended to limit the present invention.

[0022] Furthermore, each figure is a schematic diagram and is not necessarily an exact illustration. Therefore, for example, the scales of the figures do not necessarily match. Furthermore, in each figure, substantially the same components are given the same reference numerals, and redundant explanations are omitted or simplified.

[0023] Furthermore, in this specification, terms indicating relationships between elements such as "same," as well as numerical values ​​and numerical ranges, are not expressions that only express a strict meaning, but are expressions that also include a substantially equivalent range, for example, a difference of about several percent (or about 10%).

[0024] (Embodiment) Hereinafter, a power management device and the like according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS.

[0025] [1. Configuration of Power Management System] First, the configuration of a power management system including a power management device according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to Figures 1 to 3. Figure 1 is a diagram showing the configuration of a power management system 1 according to the present embodiment.

[0026] 1 , the power management system 1 includes a demand response device 10, a wholesale power market 20, and consumer devices 30. The demand response device 10 is connected to the wholesale power market 20 (e.g., a server device of the wholesale power market 20) and the consumer devices 30 so as to be able to communicate with each other (e.g., be able to communicate wirelessly).

[0027] The demand response device 10 is an example of a power management device and is an information processing device that executes processing to achieve both a reduction in the procurement cost of procuring electricity from the spot market and a reduction in imbalance costs. The demand response device 10 has, as its functional configuration, a spot price acquisition unit 11, an imbalance price prediction unit 12, an equipment information acquisition unit 13, a loss cost prediction unit 14, an expected loss prediction unit 15, and a demand response implementation unit 16. The demand response device 10 is realized, as its hardware configuration, by a non-volatile memory that stores programs, a volatile memory that is a temporary storage area for executing the programs, an input / output port, a communication interface, a processor that executes the programs, and the like. The spot price acquisition unit 11, the imbalance price prediction unit 12, the equipment information acquisition unit 13, the loss cost prediction unit 14, the expected loss prediction unit 15, and the demand response implementation unit 16 are realized by a processor that executes programs stored in memory, and the like. The demand response device 10 may be realized by a mobile terminal such as a stationary PC (Personal Computer), a portable PC, a smartphone, a tablet, or a dedicated computer, or may be realized by a server (e.g., a cloud server), or may be realized by a combination thereof.

[0028] The spot price acquisition unit 11 acquires the spot price, which is the transaction price in the wholesale electricity market 20 (specifically, the spot market). The spot price acquisition unit 11 acquires the spot price for the current day, which is determined, for example, at around 10:30 on the previous day, for example, during the previous day. The spot price includes, for example, the price for each of 48 frames obtained by dividing 24 hours in a day into 30-minute intervals. The spot price can fluctuate for each frame. The spot price acquisition unit 11 may be configured to include, for example, a communication circuit (communication module). The current day is an example of a target period.

[0029] The imbalance price prediction unit 12 predicts the imbalance price for the current day. The imbalance price is an imbalance fee that is levied when a difference occurs between the procurement plan (sales plan) submitted to OCCTO and the actual value (when so-called simultaneous equalization cannot be achieved), and is, for example, a unit price of the imbalance fee. The imbalance price prediction unit 12 predicts, for example, at least one of the imbalance price in the event of a surplus (when the actual value is in surplus with respect to the procurement plan value) and the imbalance price in the event of a shortage (when the actual value is in short supply with respect to the procurement plan value) (both in this embodiment). In other words, the imbalance price prediction unit 12 predicts, for example, at least one of the surplus imbalance unit price and the shortage imbalance unit price (both in this embodiment).

[0030] Any known method may be used to predict the imbalance price. For example, the imbalance price prediction unit 12 may predict the imbalance price for a target period (e.g., the current day) based on at least one of weather forecast information, calendar information, spot market price record information, and power demand record information. The imbalance price prediction unit 12 may also predict the imbalance price based on the reserve power supply rate for the target period. The imbalance price prediction unit 12 may also predict the imbalance price for the current day based on the record value of the imbalance price for a past day that is similar to at least one of the weather forecast information, calendar information, and reserve power supply rate for the current day. The imbalance price prediction unit 12 may also predict the imbalance price for the current day based on at least one of the spot market price record information and power demand record information (i.e., past data).

[0031] The weather forecast information includes, for example, at least one of the temperature, humidity, precipitation, solar radiation, etc. of the day. The calendar information includes whether the day is a weekday or a public holiday, what day of the week it is, what month it is, etc. The spot market price record information includes past spot price records (trading record unit prices) in the spot market. The spot market price record information may include the spot price of the day. The power demand record information includes past power demand records.

[0032] In addition, at least one of the weather forecast information, calendar information, spot market price actual information, and electricity demand actual information may be obtained via communication from an external device (e.g., a server device that manages weather information), or may be stored in the memory unit of the demand response device 10.

[0033] The imbalance price prediction unit 12 is an example of an imbalance price acquisition unit. Note that the imbalance price acquisition unit is not limited to predicting the imbalance price, and may acquire the imbalance price from an external device or by input from an administrator. The imbalance price prediction unit 12 may be configured to include, for example, a communication circuit (communication module) or a reception unit such as a button.

[0034] The device information acquisition unit 13 acquires at least one of the controllable time slots and the possible demand shift amount for DR of the consumer device 30 on that day. The controllable time slots are time slots during which the electricity retailer can control the consumer device 30 of the consumer (e.g., time slots during which charging and discharging are possible). The possible demand shift amount is the control amount by which the electricity retailer can control the consumer device 30 of the consumer. The control amount includes at least the charging amount but may also include the discharging amount. The device information acquisition unit 13 acquires the controllable time slots and the possible demand shift amount from the consumer device 30 or through input by an administrator or the like. The device information acquisition unit 13 may be configured to include, for example, a communication circuit (communication module) or a reception unit such as a button.

[0035] The loss cost prediction unit 14 predicts (e.g., calculates) the loss cost for the day defined from the spot price and the imbalance price. Based on the spot price and the imbalance price, the loss cost prediction unit 14 sets the loss cost per slot in the case of an up-driving DR (up-driving DR loss cost) as the shortage imbalance cost (see Equation 1 below), and predicts the loss cost per slot in the case of a down-driving DR (down-driving DR loss cost) by subtracting the surplus imbalance cost from the spot price (see Equation 2 below). The shortage imbalance cost is the imbalance charge cost when there is a power shortage and is an example of a first loss cost. The surplus imbalance cost is the imbalance charge cost when there is a power surplus and is an example of a second loss cost.

[0036] Increased DR loss cost = Shortage imbalance cost (Equation 1)

[0037] Downward DR loss cost = Spot price - Surplus imbalance cost (Equation 2)

[0038] When DR is implemented after submitting a procurement plan to OCCTO, the unit loss cost for each slot due to DR of an electricity retailer can be predicted using Equation 1 and Equation 2. The unit loss cost for an upward slot in which upward DR is implemented (i.e., a slot in which electricity demand increases after submitting a procurement plan to OCCTO) is predicted using Equation 1, and the unit loss cost for an upward slot in which downward DR is implemented (i.e., a slot in which electricity demand decreases after submitting a procurement plan to OCCTO) is predicted using Equation 2. Equation 2 shows that if the surplus imbalance unit cost is greater than the spot price for that slot determined the previous day, the unit loss cost for downward DR will be negative.

[0039] The expected loss prediction unit 15 predicts the expected loss based on the loss due to demand shift for a combination of slots that allows demand shift from a first time slot to a second time slot different from the first time slot within the controllable time period for DR. A slot that allows demand shift means a slot that allows demand shift by controlling the customer equipment 30 that is the target of demand response. The method of combining slots will be described later.

[0040] FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of various unit prices over a five-day period. The horizontal axis of FIG. 2 indicates the date, and the vertical axis indicates various unit prices (yen / kWh). FIG. 2 also shows an example of fluctuations over a five-day period in the imbalance unit price (solid line), area price (dashed line), up-DR loss unit price (dashed dotted line), and down-DR loss unit price (dashed two-dotted line). The imbalance unit price is an example of an imbalance price and is acquired by the imbalance price prediction unit 12. The area price is a spot price in a certain region and is acquired by the spot price acquisition unit 11. The up-DR loss unit price and down-DR loss unit price are predicted by the loss unit price prediction unit 14.

[0041] In time periods t1, t3, and t5 shown in Figure 2, the unit loss cost for down DR is negative, so if a retail electricity supplier performs down DR during those time periods, it will earn revenue. By reducing demand more during time periods t1, t3, and t5, the retail electricity supplier can earn more profit. Also, since the unit loss cost for up DR is positive during time periods t2, t4, and t6, if a retail electricity supplier performs up DR during those time periods, it will incur a loss. However, since these are time periods in a day when the unit loss cost for up DR is close to zero, the loss is small. By increasing the demand that was reduced during time periods t1, t3, and t5 during time periods t2, t4, and t6, the retail electricity supplier can earn profits with fewer losses (losses due to imbalance).

[0042] The expected loss prediction unit 15 calculates the expected loss unit price based on the following formula 3.

[0043] Expected loss cost = Downward DR loss cost from the demand shift source + Upward DR loss cost to the demand shift destination ... (Equation 3)

[0044] The expected loss prediction unit 15 sets the loss unit cost of the demand shift source slot to one of (i) the shortage imbalance unit cost and (ii) the unit cost obtained by subtracting the surplus imbalance unit cost from the spot price, sets the loss unit cost of the demand shift destination slot to the other of (i) and (ii), sets the slot number of the demand shift source slot to i (for example, an integer between 0 and 47), and sets the loss unit cost of the demand shift source slot with slot number i to P ｉThe slot number of the demand shift destination slot is j (for example, an integer between 0 and 47), and the loss cost of the demand shift destination slot with slot number j is P ｊ Then, the expected loss is calculated by the following formula 4.

[0045] Expected loss = Σ ｉ、ｊ {Demand shiftable amount × (P ｉ +P ｊ )} (where i≠j) ... (Equation 4)

[0046] The possible demand shift amount is the amount of power that the electricity retailer can shift using the consumer device 30, and is determined, for example, based on a contract between the electricity retailer and the consumer. For example, the possible demand shift amount acquired by the device information acquisition unit 13 is substituted for the possible demand shift amount.

[0047] FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining demand shifting according to this embodiment. The down-DR loss cost in time slot t7 is −34.09 yen / kWh, and the up-DR loss cost in time slot t8 is 22.57 yen / kWh. FIG. 3 shows an example in which demand shifting is performed once per day, but the number of times demand shifting is performed per day is not limited to one, and may be performed multiple times. In the example of FIG. 3, the controllable time slot is from 0:00 to 18:00.

[0048] In this case, the expected loss prediction unit 15 calculates the expected loss in the case of a demand shift of 1 kWh as shown in the following equation 5.

[0049] 1 kWh × (22.57 yen / kWh - 34.09 yen / kWh) = -10.57 yen ... (Equation 5)

[0050] As such, it can be seen that shifting demand from time slot t7 to time slot t8 will result in a profit of 10.57 yen per kWh. In this case, the slots included in time slot t7 are an example of demand shift source slots or first time slots, and the slots included in time slot t8 are an example of demand shift destination slots or second time slots. By determining a combination of demand shift source slots and demand shift destination slots so that the expected loss is negative (less than zero), and creating and executing a DR implementation plan accordingly, the electricity retailer can secure greater profits.

[0051] The combination of the demand shift source slot and the demand shift destination slot is determined, for example, from among slots on the same day.

[0052] The expected loss prediction unit 15 calculates the demand response incentives unit price for the reward or penalty for the slot i due to the implementation of the demand response as DP ｉ The demand response incentive unit price for the reward or penalty for the demand response in slot j is DP ｊ Then, the expected loss may be calculated by the following Equation 6 instead of the above Equation 4. The reward is the reward that an electricity retailer receives from a certain market or a certain business (for example, a general electricity transmission and distribution business or an aggregator) for increasing electricity demand in a certain time slot, and the penalty is the penalty that an electricity retailer pays to a certain market or a certain business for reducing electricity demand in a certain time slot.

[0053] Expected loss = Σi 、ｊ {Demand shiftable amount × (P ｉ +P ｊ +DP ｉ +DP ｊ )} (where i≠j) ... (Equation 6)

[0054] The demand response incentives unit price may be acquired by the imbalance price prediction unit 12. Note that the demand response incentives unit price DP ｉ and DP ｊ At least one of these may be zero.

[0055] Referring back to FIG. 1 , the demand response implementation unit 16 generates control commands for the consumer devices 30 based on the expected loss and transmits them to the consumer devices 30. The demand response implementation unit 16 creates a demand shift plan (DR execution plan) from the expected loss for one day, generates control commands in accordance with the created demand shift plan, and transmits the generated control commands to the consumer devices 30. As will be described in detail later, the demand response implementation unit 16 generates control commands to increase (for example, maximize) the economic effect (the sum of the procurement cost reduction effect and the imbalance-generated loss) of the demand response of the consumer devices 30. The DR execution plan is a plan for shifting demand within one day.

[0056] The consumer device 30 is a storable energy resource owned by a consumer or the like who has a contract for the sale of electricity with an electricity retailer managed by the demand response device 10. The electricity retailer may have some or all of the control rights for the consumer device 30, or the electricity retailer may offer a control reward to the consumer to induce control through the reward. In the present embodiment, the consumer device 30 is a control target device that is controlled to shift electricity demand in DR. Note that the consumer device 30 may be a chargeable device or a device capable of communicating with a chargeable device. The device capable of communicating with the chargeable device is a device capable of controlling the chargeable device, and examples thereof include, but are not limited to, a HEMS (Home Energy Management System) gateway having a communication function or a mobile terminal such as a smartphone.

[0057] [2. Operation of Power Management System] Next, the operation of the power management system 1 configured as described above will be described with reference to Fig. 4 and Fig. 5. Fig. 4 is a flowchart showing the operation (power management method) of the power management system 1 according to this embodiment. Note that steps S11 and S12 (boxed with dashed lines) shown in Fig. 4 may be processes executed the previous day by a device or person outside the power management system 1, and steps S13 to S19 (boxed with solid lines) are processes executed by the demand response device 10 by the demand response implementation time on the day.

[0058] As shown in FIG. 4, an electricity retailer submits a procurement plan to JEPX by around 10:00 on the previous day (S11) and to OCCTO by around 12:00 on the previous day (S12).

[0059] Next, the spot price acquisition unit 11 acquires the spot price of each slot (e.g., 48 slots) in the wholesale electricity market 20 for that day, which is determined around 10:30 on the previous day (S13). The spot price acquisition unit 11 may acquire the spot price at any timing between the time the spot price is determined and immediately before the DR implementation plan is created. For example, the spot price acquisition unit 11 may acquire the spot price from the wholesale electricity market 20 via communication.

[0060] Next, the imbalance price prediction unit 12 predicts the imbalance price for each slot (e.g., 48 slots) of the day based on at least one of weather forecast information, calendar information, spot market price record information, and electricity demand record information (S14). The imbalance price includes a shortage imbalance price and a surplus imbalance price. The imbalance price prediction unit 12 may obtain the imbalance price by predicting it immediately before creating the DR implementation plan.

[0061] Next, the device information acquiring unit 13 acquires device data of the consumer devices 30 that can be controlled by the electricity retailer (S15). The device data includes information related to DR in the consumer devices 30, such as at least one of a controllable time period and a possible amount of demand shift on the day. The device information acquiring unit 13 may acquire the device data from the consumer devices 30 via communication.

[0062] Next, the loss cost prediction unit 14 predicts the loss cost of each slot on the day based on the spot price and the imbalance price (S16). The loss cost prediction unit 14 predicts the up-DR loss cost and the down-DR loss cost of each slot using Equation 1 and Equation 2. Note that the loss cost prediction unit 14 may predict only the up-DR loss cost and the down-DR loss cost of slots included in the controllable time slot or slots having a demand shiftable amount equal to or greater than a predetermined amount.

[0063] Next, the expected loss prediction unit 15 predicts the expected loss for each combination of the demand shift source slot and the demand shift destination slot (S17). Specifically, the expected loss prediction unit 15 predicts the expected loss unit price for each combination of the demand shift source slot and the demand shift destination slot based on the upward DR loss price and downward DR loss price of each slot. The expected loss prediction unit 15 determines the combination of the demand shift source slot and the demand shift destination slot by, for example, either the first method or the second method below, and predicts the expected loss for each determined combination.

[0064] The first method is a method for simply searching for combinations. For example, the Greedy algorithm, which sequentially searches for the most profitable partial solution, may be used as the first method. The first method will be described with reference to FIG. 5. FIG. 5 is a table according to this embodiment, in which the downward demand response loss costs and upward demand response loss costs are sorted in ascending order. Note that while FIG. 5 shows a table in which the downward demand response loss costs and upward demand response loss costs for one day are sorted in ascending order, the table may also be a table in which the downward demand response loss costs and upward demand response loss costs for multiple days are sorted in ascending order.

[0065] The table shown in Fig. 5 includes a number, a date, a time slot (upward DR), an upward DR loss cost (yen / kWh), a time slot (downward DR), a downward DR loss cost (yen / kWh), and a DR target flag. The number is identification information that identifies the order, and is assigned starting from 0 and continuing in the order of 1, 2, 3, .... The DR target flag is information that indicates whether or not the combination is subject to DR control. In the example of Fig. 5, a "1" is assigned to a combination subject to DR control, and a "0" is assigned to a combination not subject to DR control.

[0066] First, the expected loss prediction unit 15 sorts the down DR loss prices and up DR loss prices of the day in ascending order. As a result, the down DR loss prices of the 48 frames of the day and the up DR loss prices of the 48 frames of the day are sorted in ascending order.

[0067] Next, the expected loss prediction unit 15 calculates the expected loss cost for each combination of the up-DR loss cost and the down-DR loss cost, starting from the top, using Equation 3. As a result, pairs are created in descending order of the loss of each down-DR and up-DR, and the expected loss cost is calculated.

[0068] In the example of FIG. 5 , the expected loss prediction unit 15 first calculates the expected unit loss cost for the combination No. 0. The expected unit loss cost for No. 0 is −7.70 (0.01 + (−7.71)) yen / kWh. In this case, since the expected unit loss cost is negative, a demand shift from 32 frames (an example of a first time slot) at the source of the demand shift to 24 frames (an example of a second time slot) at the destination of the demand shift generates a profit for the retail electricity supplier. Then, the expected loss prediction unit 15 calculates the expected unit loss costs in the order of Nos. 0, 1, 2, 3, and so on. In the example of FIG. 5 , the expected unit loss costs are calculated in the order up to No. 47, but the calculation may be stopped when the expected unit loss cost becomes 0 yen / kWh or more.

[0069] The demand shift destination slot may be a slot that is earlier or later in time than the demand shift source slot. The demand shift amount from the demand shift source slot to the demand shift destination slot is determined based on the controllable amount of the equipment data.

[0070] The table shown in FIG. 5 may be created by omitting the unit cost of loss for the uncontrollable time periods other than the controllable time periods of the day.

[0071] The second method is a method of searching for an exact optimum solution to find combinatorial optimization. In the second method, the expected loss cost for all combinations of the demand shift source slot and the demand shift destination slot can be obtained. The number of combinations in the second method is, for example, up to 47 per day. ４８ The second method is an example of a mathematical optimization technique.

[0072] In this way, the expected loss prediction unit 15 uses the expected loss as the objective function and performs processing to extract a combination of slots where "spot price - surplus imbalance cost + shortage imbalance cost < 0" (for example, a combination where the expected loss is minimized).

[0073] Furthermore, the expected loss prediction unit 15 may calculate the expected loss for the extracted combination using Equation 4. The expected loss prediction unit 15 may calculate the expected loss within a range equal to or less than the upper limit of the demand shift amount (i.e., the demand shiftable amount) of the demand shift source slot and the demand shift destination slot. It can also be said that the expected loss prediction unit 15 predicts the expected loss based on the slots (demand shift source slot and demand shift destination slot) included in the controllable time slot within the target period and the demand shiftable amount in the slots.

[0074] In calculating the expected loss, the expected loss prediction unit 15 may combine slots in which the demand shift source slot and the demand shift destination slot are close in time. The term "slots close in time" may mean, for example, that the time difference between the two slots is equal to or less than a predetermined time difference (e.g., equal to or less than two hours), or that the number of slots between the two slots for which the expected loss is to be calculated is equal to or less than a predetermined number or zero.

[0075] Next, the demand response implementation unit 16 creates a demand response plan (DR implementation plan) based on the expected loss (S18). The DR implementation plan includes information indicating slots in which DR is to be performed on the customer devices 30 and the demand shift amount (power shift amount) for each slot. Note that, for example, the amount of decrease in power demand in a demand shift source slot matches the amount of increase in power demand in a demand shift destination slot corresponding to the demand shift source slot. Furthermore, there may be one or more demand shift destination slots for one demand shift source slot. Furthermore, there may be one or more demand shift source slots for one demand shift destination slot.

[0076] The demand response implementation unit 16 extracts, as demand shift candidates, combinations that result in a negative expected unit loss cost, and, taking into account the constraints on the controllable time of the target resource (here, the consumer device 30), extracts a predetermined number of combinations from the demand shift candidates that result in a smaller value related to the expected loss (here, the expected unit loss cost) (e.g., smaller than zero or the smallest). The demand response implementation unit 16 extracts one or more combinations (e.g., two or more combinations) that are included in the controllable time slot from the combinations determined by the first method or the second method, and extracts a predetermined number of combinations that result in a smaller expected unit loss cost from the extracted one or more combinations (e.g., two or more extracted combinations). The predetermined number is set arbitrarily and may be, for example, three. This makes it possible to determine a demand shift combination that results in a smaller expected loss (in other words, a greater profit for the electricity retailer) within the controllable time slot. It can also be said that the demand response implementation unit 16 determines a combination of the demand shift source slot and the demand shift destination slot from the combinations shown in Figure 5 so that the value related to the expected loss (here, the expected loss unit price) for the target period (e.g., the current day) is smaller.

[0077] The demand response implementation unit 16 may further use the demand shiftable amount when extracting combinations that result in a smaller expected loss.The demand response implementation unit 16 may extract a predetermined number of combinations from the demand shift candidates that result in a smaller (e.g., minimum) value related to the expected loss (here, the expected loss) based on the expected loss of each combination.The demand response implementation unit 16 may extract two or more combinations that are included in the controllable time slot from the combinations determined by the first method or the second method, and extract a predetermined number of combinations that result in a smaller expected loss from each of the two or more extracted combinations.

[0078] For example, the DR implementation plan is a control plan for the customer devices 30 for shifting demand in a predetermined number of extracted combinations. Note that the DR implementation plan may be a plan for shifting demand in all or some of the combinations for which the expected loss cost or the expected loss is negative.

[0079] Next, the demand response implementation unit 16 implements a demand response based on the DR implementation plan (S19). The demand response implementation unit 16 implements DR by transmitting a control command based on the created DR implementation plan to the customer device 30. Specifically, the demand response implementation unit 16 executes a demand shift of power according to the amount of demand shift possible from the demand shift source slot to the demand shift destination slot, which is determined based on the value related to the expected loss.

[0080] (Effects, etc.) The invention derived from the disclosure of this specification and the effects, etc. obtained by the invention will be described below.

[0081] (Technology 1) A power management device (e.g., a demand response device 10) that includes: a spot price acquisition unit that acquires spot prices in the wholesale electricity market for a target period; an imbalance price acquisition unit that acquires imbalance prices for the target period; a loss cost prediction unit that predicts a loss cost for the target period based on the spot price and the imbalance price; and an expected loss prediction unit that predicts an expected loss due to a demand shift based on the loss cost for a combination of slots that allows for a demand shift from a first time slot to a second time slot during the target period by controlling equipment that is the target of demand response.

[0082] This makes it possible to predict the expected loss due to power shifting based on the loss unit price, which is based on the spot price and the imbalance price. By using such expected loss, it is possible to identify slots where power shifting is possible, which reduce both the procurement cost of procuring power from the spot market and the imbalance cost. Therefore, it is possible to realize a power management device that can achieve both a reduction in the procurement cost of procuring power from the spot market and a reduction in the imbalance cost.

[0083] (Technology 2) The loss unit cost prediction unit is a power management device according to Technology 1, which calculates, based on the spot price and the imbalance price, a first loss unit cost for each slot in the target period in the case of an upward demand response that increases the amount of demanded power, as a shortage imbalance unit cost, and calculates a second loss unit cost for each slot in the target period in the case of a downward demand response that decreases the amount of demanded power, by subtracting a surplus imbalance unit cost from the spot price.

[0084] This allows for consideration of changes in procurement costs due to demand shifts by using spot prices, and for consideration of changes in imbalance costs due to demand shifts by using the shortage imbalance price and surplus imbalance price, making it possible to achieve both reductions in procurement costs and imbalance costs.

[0085] (Technology 3) The expected loss prediction unit sets the loss unit cost of the demand shift source slot to one of (i) the shortage imbalance unit cost and (ii) the unit cost obtained by subtracting the surplus imbalance unit cost from the spot price, sets the loss unit cost of the demand shift destination slot to the other of (i) and (ii), sets the slot number of the demand shift source slot to i, and sets the loss unit cost of the demand shift source slot with slot number i to P ｉ The slot number of the demand shift destination slot is j, and the loss cost of the demand shift destination slot with slot number j is P ｊ Then, the power management device of Technique 2 predicts the expected loss using the following equation 1.

[0086] Expected loss = Σ ｉ、ｊ {Demand shiftable amount × (P ｉ +P ｊ )} (where i≠j) ... (Equation 1)

[0087] Therefore, by using Equation 1, the expected loss can be easily predicted.

[0088] (Technology 4) The expected loss prediction unit sets the loss unit cost of the demand shift source slot to one of (i) the shortage imbalance unit cost and (ii) the unit cost obtained by subtracting the surplus imbalance unit cost from the spot price, sets the loss unit cost of the demand shift destination slot to the other of (i) and (ii), sets the slot number of the demand shift source slot to i, and sets the loss unit cost of the demand shift source slot with slot number i to P ｉ The demand response incentive unit price for the reward or penalty for the slot number i due to the implementation of the demand response is DP ｉ The slot number of the demand shift destination slot is j, and the loss cost of the demand shift destination slot with slot number j is P ｊ The demand response incentive unit price for the reward or penalty for the slot number j due to the demand response is DP ｊ Then, the power management device of Technique 2 predicts the expected loss using the following Equation 2.

[0089] Expected loss = Σ ｉ、ｊ {Demand shiftable amount × (P ｉ +P ｊ +DP ｉ +DP ｊ )} (where i≠j) ... (Equation 2)

[0090] This allows for more accurate prediction of expected losses, as demand response incentives can be further taken into account.

[0091] (Technology 5) The power management device according to Technology 1 or 2, comprising a demand response implementation unit that determines a combination of a demand shift source slot and a demand shift destination slot from among the combinations of expected losses so that the expected loss for the target period is less than zero, and transmits a control command to the equipment.

[0092] This allows control commands to be sent to the equipment so that the expected loss is negative (i.e., the retail electricity supplier's profit is positive).

[0093] (Technology 6) The expected loss prediction unit is a power management device according to Technology 3 or 4, which determines a combination of the demand shift source slot and the demand shift destination slot so as to minimize the expected loss using a mathematical optimization method, using the expected loss as an objective function.

[0094] This makes it possible to determine a combination of demand shift destination slots and demand shift source slots that minimizes expected losses by using a mathematical optimization technique.

[0095] (Technology 7) The power management device of Technology 3 or 4, wherein the expected loss prediction unit uses the expected loss as an objective function, sorts the first unit loss cost and the second unit loss cost in ascending order, calculates an expected unit loss cost based on the first unit loss cost of the demand shift destination slot and the second unit loss cost of the demand shift source slot for each combination of elements of the first unit loss cost and the second unit loss cost, starting from the top, and determines a combination of the demand shift destination slot and the demand shift source slot based on a combination for which the expected unit loss cost is negative.

[0096] This makes it possible to easily determine combinations that result in negative expected loss prices without calculating the expected loss unit prices for all combinations, thereby reducing the amount of processing by the power management device.

[0097] (Technology 8) A power management device according to Technology 3 or 4, which determines, as a demand shift candidate, a combination for which the expected unit loss cost based on the first unit loss cost of the demand shift destination slot and the second unit loss cost of the demand shift source slot is negative, and determines, based on the controllable time period of the equipment, a combination for which the expected loss is smaller from among the combinations of the demand shift candidates.

[0098] This allows a combination to be determined that results in a smaller expected loss (i.e., a more positive profit for the retail electricity supplier).

[0099] (Technology 9) The power management device according to Technology 3 or 4, wherein the expected loss prediction unit predicts the expected loss within a range equal to or less than an upper limit value of the demand shift amount of the demand shift source slot and the demand shift destination slot.

[0100] This allows the expected loss to be calculated more accurately by setting the demand shift amount to be equal to or less than the upper limit of the demand shift.

[0101] (Technology 10) The power management device according to Technology 3 or 4, wherein the expected loss prediction unit calculates the expected loss based on a combination in which the demand shift source slot and the demand shift destination slot are slots that are close in time.

[0102] This allows for the selection of time-close slots as a method for determining a combination for calculating expected losses. For example, even if the predicted value of the imbalance price is incorrect, the effect of suppressing the impact can be expected because the two slots are close in time.

[0103] (Technology 11) The power management device according to any one of Technologies 1 to 10, further comprising an equipment information acquisition unit that acquires from the equipment a controllable time slot of the target period for the demand response and a possible demand shift amount for the target period, wherein the expected loss prediction unit predicts the expected loss based on a slot included in the controllable time slot of the target period and the possible demand shift amount for the slot.

[0104] This allows the controllable time period and the amount of demand shiftable to be obtained from an external device, so that the expected loss can be accurately calculated even if the controllable time period and the amount of demand shiftable are changed.

[0105] (Technology 12) The imbalance price acquisition unit is a power management device according to any one of technologies 1 to 11, which predicts the imbalance price for the target period based on at least one of weather forecast information, calendar information, spot market price record information, and electricity demand record information.

[0106] This allows for an appropriate prediction of the imbalance price.

[0107] (Technology 13) A power management method that acquires a spot price in the wholesale electricity market for a target period, acquires an imbalance price for the target period, predicts a loss cost for the target period based on the spot price and the imbalance price, and targets a combination of slots that allows a demand shift from a first time slot to a second time slot during the target period by controlling equipment that is the target of demand response, and predicts an expected loss due to the demand shift based on the loss cost.

[0108] This provides the same effects as the power management device described above.

[0109] (Technology 14) A program for causing a computer to execute the power management method of Technology 13.

[0110] This provides the same effects as the power management device described above.

[0111] These general or specific aspects may be realized as a system, a method, an integrated circuit, a computer program, or a non-transitory recording medium such as a computer-readable CD-ROM, or as any combination of the system, method, integrated circuit, computer program, or recording medium. The program may be pre-stored in the recording medium, or may be supplied to the recording medium via a wide area communication network including the Internet.

[0112] While the power management device and the like according to one or more aspects have been described above based on the embodiments, the present invention is not limited to these embodiments. As long as they do not deviate from the spirit of the present invention, various modifications conceivable by those skilled in the art to the present embodiments and configurations constructed by combining components of different embodiments may also be included in the present invention.

[0113] For example, the device information acquiring unit 13 according to the above embodiment has been described as acquiring the controllable time period and the possible demand shift amount from the customer device 30, but the present invention is not limited to this, and the information may be acquired in advance and stored in a storage unit (not shown) of the demand response device 10. The device information acquiring unit 13 may acquire the controllable time period and the possible demand shift amount by reading them from the storage unit.

[0114] The demand response device 10 according to the above embodiment may also include components capable of executing at least one of steps S11 and S12 shown in Fig. 4. The demand response device 10 may also include at least one of a first communication unit that transmits the procurement plan to JEPX by communication by around 10:00 on the previous day, and a second communication unit that transmits the procurement plan to OCCTO by communication by around 12:00 on the previous day. The first communication unit and the second communication unit are configured to include, for example, a communication circuit (communication module).

[0115] Furthermore, the demand response device 10 according to the above embodiment does not have to include the demand response implementation unit 16. The demand response device 10 may include, for example, a communication unit that transmits the predicted expected loss to an external device that has the function of the demand response implementation unit 16.

[0116] In the above embodiments, each component may be configured with dedicated hardware, or may be realized by executing a software program suitable for each component. Each component may be realized by a program execution unit such as a CPU or processor reading and executing a software program recorded on a recording medium such as a hard disk or semiconductor memory.

[0117] The order in which the steps in the flowchart are executed is merely an example for specifically explaining the present invention, and other orders may be used. Some of the steps may be executed simultaneously (in parallel) with other steps, or some of the steps may not be executed.

[0118] The division of functional blocks in the block diagram is an example, and multiple functional blocks may be realized as a single functional block, one functional block may be divided into multiple blocks, or some functions may be moved to another functional block.Furthermore, the functions of multiple functional blocks having similar functions may be processed in parallel or time-shared by a single piece of hardware or software.

[0119] Furthermore, the demand response device 10 according to the above embodiment may be realized as a single device or may be realized by multiple devices. When the demand response device 10 is realized by multiple devices, the components of the demand response device 10 may be distributed in any manner among the multiple devices. When the demand response device 10 is realized by multiple devices, the communication method between the multiple devices is not particularly limited, and may be wireless communication or wired communication. Furthermore, wireless communication and wired communication may be combined between the devices.

[0120] Furthermore, each component described in the above embodiments may be implemented as software or, typically, as an LSI, which is an integrated circuit. These components may be individually integrated into a single chip, or some or all of them may be integrated into a single chip. While the term "LSI" is used here, it may also be referred to as an IC, system LSI, super LSI, or ultra LSI depending on the level of integration. Furthermore, the integrated circuit implementation is not limited to LSIs; it may also be implemented using dedicated circuits (general-purpose circuits that execute dedicated programs) or general-purpose processors. It is also possible to use FPGAs (Field Programmable Gate Arrays), which can be programmed after LSI fabrication, or reconfigurable processors, which allow the connection or settings of circuit cells within an LSI to be reconfigured. Furthermore, if an integrated circuit technology that replaces LSIs emerges due to advances in semiconductor technology or other derivative technologies, it is natural that such technology may be used to integrate the components.

[0121] A system LSI is an ultra-multifunctional LSI manufactured by integrating multiple processing units on a single chip. Specifically, it is a computer system that includes a microprocessor, ROM (Read Only Memory), RAM (Random Access Memory), etc. Computer programs are stored in the ROM. The system LSI achieves its functions when the microprocessor operates in accordance with the computer program.

[0122] Another aspect of the present invention may be a computer program that causes a computer to execute each of the characteristic steps included in the power management method shown in FIG.

[0123] Furthermore, for example, the program may be a program to be executed by a computer. Another aspect of the present invention may be a computer-readable non-transitory recording medium on which such a program is recorded. For example, such a program may be recorded on a recording medium and distributed or circulated. For example, the distributed program may be installed in a device having another processor, and the program may be executed by the processor, thereby causing the device to perform each of the above processes.

[0124] REFERENCE SIGNS LIST 10 Demand response device (power management device) 11 Spot price acquisition unit 12 Imbalance price prediction unit (imbalance price acquisition unit) 13 Equipment information acquisition unit 14 Loss unit price prediction unit 15 Expected loss prediction unit 16 Demand response implementation unit 20 Wholesale electricity market 30 Consumer equipment

Claims

1. A power management device comprising: a spot price acquisition unit that acquires spot prices in the wholesale electricity market for a target period; an imbalance price acquisition unit that acquires imbalance prices for said target period; a loss cost prediction unit that predicts a loss cost for said target period based on said spot price and said imbalance price; and an expected loss prediction unit that predicts an expected loss due to a demand shift based on said loss cost for a combination of slots that allows for a demand shift from a first time slot to a second time slot during said target period by controlling equipment that is the target of demand response.

2. The power management device of claim 1, wherein the loss unit price prediction unit calculates, based on the spot price and the imbalance price, a first loss unit price for each slot in the target period in the case of an upward demand response that increases the amount of demanded power, as a shortage imbalance unit price, and a second loss unit price for each slot in the target period in the case of a downward demand response that decreases the amount of demanded power, by subtracting a surplus imbalance unit price from the spot price.

3. The expected loss prediction unit sets the loss unit cost of the demand shift source slot to one of (i) the shortage imbalance unit cost and (ii) the unit cost obtained by subtracting the surplus imbalance unit cost from the spot price, sets the loss unit cost of the demand shift destination slot to the other of (i) and (ii), sets the slot number of the demand shift source slot to i, and sets the loss unit cost of the demand shift source slot with slot number i to P ｉ The slot number of the demand shift destination slot is j, and the loss cost of the demand shift destination slot with slot number j is P ｊ Then, the expected loss is predicted using the following formula 1: Expected loss = Σ ｉ、ｊ {Demand shiftable amount × (P ｉ +P ｊ )} (where i≠j) (Formula 1) The power management device according to claim 2 .

4. The expected loss prediction unit sets the loss unit cost of the demand shift source slot to one of (i) the shortage imbalance unit cost and (ii) the unit cost obtained by subtracting the surplus imbalance unit cost from the spot price, sets the loss unit cost of the demand shift destination slot to the other of (i) and (ii), sets the slot number of the demand shift source slot to i, and sets the loss unit cost of the demand shift source slot with slot number i to P ｉ The demand response incentive unit price for the reward or penalty for the slot number i due to the implementation of the demand response is DP ｉ The slot number of the demand shift destination slot is j, and the loss cost of the demand shift destination slot with slot number j is P ｊ The demand response incentive unit price for the reward or penalty for the slot number j due to the demand response is DP ｊ Then, the expected loss is predicted using the following formula 2: Expected loss = Σ ｉ、ｊ {Demand shiftable amount × (P ｉ +P ｊ +DP ｉ +DP ｊ )} (where i≠j) (Equation 2) The power management device according to claim 2.

5. The power management device according to claim 1 or 2, further comprising a demand response implementation unit that determines a combination of a demand shift source slot and a demand shift destination slot from among the combinations of expected losses so that the expected loss for the target period is less than zero, and transmits a control command to the equipment.

6. The power management device according to claim 3 or 4, wherein the expected loss prediction unit determines a combination of the demand shift source slot and the demand shift destination slot so as to minimize the expected loss using a mathematical optimization technique, using the expected loss as an objective function.

7. The power management device according to claim 3 or 4, wherein the expected loss prediction unit uses the expected loss as an objective function, sorts the first unit loss cost and the second unit loss cost in ascending order, calculates an expected unit loss cost based on the first unit loss cost of the demand shift destination slot and the second unit loss cost of the demand shift source slot for each combination of elements of the first unit loss cost and the second unit loss cost, starting from the top, and determines a combination of the demand shift destination slot and the demand shift source slot based on a combination for which the expected unit loss cost is negative.

8. The power management device according to claim 3 or 4, wherein a combination for which the expected unit loss cost based on the first unit loss cost of the demand shift destination slot and the second unit loss cost of the demand shift source slot is negative is determined as a demand shift candidate, and a combination for which the expected loss is smaller is determined from among the combinations of the demand shift candidates based on the controllable time period of the equipment.

9. The power management device according to claim 3 or 4, wherein the expected loss prediction unit predicts the expected loss within a range not exceeding an upper limit value of the demand shift amount of the demand shift source slot and the demand shift destination slot.

10. The power management device according to claim 3 or 4, wherein the expected loss prediction unit predicts the expected loss based on a combination in which the demand shift source slot and the demand shift destination slot are close in time.

11. A power management device as described in any one of claims 1 to 4, further comprising an equipment information acquisition unit that acquires from the equipment a controllable time slot of the target period for the demand response and a possible demand shift amount for the target period, and the expected loss prediction unit predicts the expected loss based on slots included in the controllable time slot of the target period and the possible demand shift amount for the slot.

12. The power management device according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the imbalance price acquisition unit predicts the imbalance price for the target period based on at least one of weather forecast information, calendar information, spot market price performance information, and electricity demand performance information.

13. A power management method comprising: acquiring a spot price in the wholesale electricity market for a target period; acquiring an imbalance price for said target period; predicting a loss cost for said target period based on said spot price and said imbalance price; and predicting an expected loss due to said demand shift based on said loss cost for combinations of slots that allow for a demand shift from a first time slot to a second time slot during said target period by controlling equipment that is the target of demand response.

14. A program for causing a computer to execute the power management method according to claim 13.

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