Business income prediction system, business income prediction method, and program

Abstract

A business income prediction system (10) comprises: a user basic information acquisition unit (11) that acquires the input result of a questionnaire for inputting user basic information associated with a user who is scheduled to contract with a power purchase agreement (PPA) business operator or a retail electric business operator; and a business income prediction unit (15) that predicts business income on the basis of the user basic information.

Description

Business income forecasting system, business income forecasting method and program

[0001] The present invention relates to a business income forecasting system, a business income forecasting method, and a program.

[0002] When entering into a contract with a new user, a company operating an electric power business, such as a PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) company, estimates the business revenue based on the contract with the user in advance and uses the estimate to determine whether or not to enter into the contract. For example, Patent Literature 1 discloses a revenue analysis device for natural energy power generation facilities.

[0003] JP 2014-186503 A

[0004] Incidentally, business revenue is important information for businesses to determine whether or not to enter into a contract with a user, and it is desirable to predict business revenue more accurately.

[0005] Therefore, the present invention provides a business income forecasting system, a business income forecasting method, and a program that can more accurately forecast business income.

[0006] A business income prediction system according to one embodiment of the present invention includes a user basic information acquisition unit that acquires the results of a questionnaire for inputting user basic information linked to a user who plans to enter into a contract with a PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) company or a retail electricity company, and a business income prediction unit that predicts business income based on the user basic information.

[0007] A business income forecasting method according to one aspect of the present invention obtains the results of a questionnaire for inputting basic user information associated with users who plan to join a PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) business or users who plan to enter into a contract with a retail electricity supplier, and predicts business income based on the basic user information.

[0008] A program according to one aspect of the present invention is a program for causing a computer to execute the above-described business income prediction method.

[0009] According to one aspect of the present invention, it is possible to realize a business income prediction system or the like that can predict business income more accurately.

[0010] FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the functional configuration of a business income prediction system according to an embodiment. FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of an input screen for a user basic information acquisition questionnaire according to an embodiment. FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of an input screen for a user lifestyle information acquisition questionnaire according to an embodiment. FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of an input screen for business information according to an embodiment. FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of a contract judgment report according to an embodiment. FIG. 6 is a sequence diagram showing operation example 1 of an overall system including a business income prediction system according to an embodiment. FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing operation example 1 of the business income prediction system according to an embodiment. FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing a variation of operation example 1 of the business income prediction system according to an embodiment. FIG. 9 is a sequence diagram showing operation example 2 of an overall system including a business income prediction system according to an embodiment. FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing operation example 2 of the business income prediction system according to an embodiment. FIG. 11 is a sequence diagram showing operation example 3 of an overall system including a business income prediction system according to an embodiment. FIG. 12 is a flowchart showing operation example 3 of the business income prediction system according to an embodiment.

[0011] Hereinafter, the embodiments will be specifically described with reference to the drawings.

[0012] The embodiments described below are all comprehensive or specific examples. The numerical values, shapes, components, component placement and connection configurations, steps, and step order shown in the following embodiments are merely examples and are not intended to limit the present invention. Furthermore, among the components in the following embodiments, components not described in the independent claims are described as optional components.

[0013] Furthermore, each figure is a schematic diagram and is not necessarily an exact illustration. Therefore, for example, the scales of the figures do not necessarily match. Furthermore, in each figure, substantially the same components are given the same reference numerals, and redundant explanations are omitted or simplified.

[0014] Furthermore, in this specification, terms indicating relationships between elements, such as "same," terms indicating the shapes of elements, such as "star," numerical values, and numerical ranges are not expressions that express only the strict meaning, but are expressions that also include a substantially equivalent range, for example, a difference of about several percent (or about 10%).

[0015] (Embodiment) Hereinafter, a business income forecasting system according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to Figs.

[0016] [1. Configuration of the Business Revenue Prediction System] First, the configuration of the business revenue prediction system according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS. 1 to 5. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the functional configuration of a business revenue prediction system 10 according to the present embodiment. The business revenue prediction system 10 is an information processing system for predicting the business revenue of a business operating in the power business. The power business is a business that produces (generates) or procures and sells electricity, which is an energy source. The sales destination may be consumers or electric power companies. Examples of businesses operating in the power business include PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) businesses and retail electricity businesses. PPA businesses are businesses that install and manage renewable energy power generation equipment, which is power generation equipment that generates electricity using renewable energy, such as solar power generation equipment or wind power generation equipment, at consumer sites and earn revenue by selling the electricity generated by the renewable energy power generation equipment to consumers or electric power companies. Electricity retailers are businesses that earn revenue by selling electricity generated by their own power generation equipment or electricity procured from external sources to consumers. In the following, an example will be mainly described in which the business operator running the electric power business is a PPA business operator and the renewable energy power generation device is a solar power generation facility.

[0017] As shown in FIG. 1 , the business income prediction system 10 includes, as its functional configuration, a user basic information acquisition unit 11, a user lifestyle information acquisition unit 12, a user information storage unit 13, a power generation information acquisition unit 14, a business income prediction unit 15, a business information acquisition unit 16, and a contract judgment and proposal unit 17. The business income prediction system 10 also includes, as its hardware configuration, a non-volatile memory in which programs are stored, a volatile memory that is a temporary storage area for executing the programs, an input / output port, a communication interface, a processor that executes the programs, etc. The user basic information acquisition unit 11, the user lifestyle information acquisition unit 12, the user information storage unit 13, the power generation information acquisition unit 14, the business income prediction unit 15, the business information acquisition unit 16, and the contract judgment and proposal unit 17 are realized by a processor that executes programs stored in memory, etc. The business income prediction system 10 may be realized by a desktop PC (Personal Computer), a mobile terminal such as a smartphone or tablet, a dedicated computer, or a server (e.g., a cloud server), or a combination thereof. Note that FIG. 1 shows an exemplary functional configuration of the business income prediction system 10, and the functional configuration of the business income prediction system 10 is not limited to that shown in FIG. 1.

[0018] The user basic information acquisition unit 11 acquires the results of input to a questionnaire for inputting user basic information linked to a user who plans to join a PPA business (or a user who plans to sign a contract with a retail electricity supplier). The user basic information acquisition unit 11 acquires, for example, the results of input entered via an input screen displayed on the user's user terminal 20 (see Figures 2, 6, etc.). Note that "planning to join a PPA business" means that the user is considering joining a PPA business. Furthermore, a user who plans to join a PPA business is, for example, a user who plans to sign a contract with a PPA provider.

[0019] The user terminal 20 is an information terminal carried by a user, and includes a display unit such as a display that displays an input screen, and a reception unit such as buttons, a touch panel, a microphone, etc. that receives user input for the displayed questionnaire. The user terminal 20 may be, for example, a portable information terminal such as a smartphone or a tablet, or a stationary information terminal such as a PC.

[0020] 2 is a diagram showing an example of an input screen for the user basic information acquisition questionnaire according to the present embodiment. The input screen shown in FIG. 2 is displayed on the display unit of the user terminal 20, for example.

[0021] 2, the questionnaire includes a questionnaire regarding user attribute information and a questionnaire regarding home information. Note that the questionnaire may be a questionnaire for acquiring at least one of the user attribute information and the home information.

[0022] The user attribute information is information indicating the attributes of a user, and includes the user's age, gender, place of residence, etc. The place of residence indicates the location of a house where a power generation facility using renewable energy, such as a solar power generation facility, is planned to be installed. In the following, an example will be described in which the power generation facility using renewable energy is a solar power generation facility, but this is not limited to this, and other power generation devices using renewable energy, such as a wind power generation facility or a hydroelectric power generation facility, may also be used.

[0023] When a user plans to install solar power generation equipment in the home where the user currently lives, the location of the current home (e.g., address) is entered as the residence, and when the user plans to install solar power generation equipment in a home where the user is moving, the location of the home where the user is moving is entered as the residence. The home where the solar power generation equipment is planned to be installed means the home where the user currently lives if the user plans to install solar power generation equipment in the home where the user is moving, and means the home where the user plans to move (the home where the user plans to live) if the user plans to install solar power generation equipment in the home where the user is moving.

[0024] The home information is information about the home where the user lives, and includes the amount of power used, family composition, floor plan, and the like.

[0025] The amount of power usage indicates the actual amount of power consumed in a predetermined period in the house where the user currently lives.

[0026] The family structure indicates the user's family structure. The family structure may include the number of family members (including, for example, cohabitants), their relationship to the family members, their ages, whether they live together, and their working hours if they are employed. The family structure may also include the structure of the family members living together in the house where the solar power generation equipment is to be installed.

[0027] The floor plan shows the layout of the house where the solar power generation equipment is planned to be installed.

[0028] Note that the items of the user attribute information and home information shown in Fig. 2 are merely examples, and are not limited to the items shown in Fig. 2. Furthermore, the number of items included in the user attribute information and home information is not limited to three, and may be one or more.

[0029] The questionnaire may be entered in a multiple choice format, a free format, or a combination thereof.

[0030] The user basic information acquiring unit 11 collects questionnaire data by acquiring input results of the questionnaire shown in Fig. 2. The user basic information acquiring unit 11 may acquire at least two or more pieces of information from among one or more pieces of information indicating the attributes of the user (e.g., one or more pieces of information among age, sex, and place of residence) and one or more pieces of information regarding the user's home (e.g., one or more pieces of information among amount of electricity used, family composition, and floor plan) as input results to the questionnaire in which the user basic information is input.

[0031] The user basic information acquisition unit 11 may be configured to include, for example, a communication circuit (communication module). Alternatively, the user basic information acquisition unit 11 may include a button, a touch panel, a microphone, etc., and may be configured to directly acquire user information from the user.

[0032] The user basic information acquiring unit 11 may acquire input results based on information acquired by at least one of the contents entered in a paper questionnaire, voice input, and telephone response. In other words, the user basic information acquiring unit 11 is not limited to acquiring the input results of the questionnaire via the user terminal 20.

[0033] 1 , the user lifestyle information acquisition unit 12 acquires the results of a questionnaire for inputting user lifestyle information based on the user's perception of electricity usage, their usual lifestyle, etc. The user's perception of electricity usage is, for example, subjective information about the user's electricity usage. The usual lifestyle is information for identifying time periods when a lot of electricity is used in the home.

[0034] One of the important parameters for calculating the business income of a PPA provider is the daytime electricity usage in the residence. In other words, if the daytime electricity usage can be accurately estimated, the business income can be predicted more accurately. User lifestyle information is information specific to the user or the family, such as the lifestyle patterns of the user or the family. By using information specific to the user or the family in addition to the user basic information, the accuracy of the business income prediction can be effectively improved. Note that, conventionally, business income predictions are made using information that does not include information specific to the user or the family, such as average power consumption.

[0035] 3 is a diagram showing an example of an input screen for the user lifestyle information acquisition questionnaire according to the present embodiment. The input screen shown in FIG. 3 is displayed on the display unit of the user terminal 20, for example.

[0036] As shown in Figure 3, the questionnaire includes a questionnaire regarding presence-at-home information. The presence-at-home information includes the number of people at home during the day on weekdays, the number of people at home during the day on holidays, and whether the amount of electricity used is felt to be higher than that of other homes. The number of people at home during the day on weekdays and the number of people at home during the day on holidays are examples of items for inputting a user's usual lifestyle. Whether the amount of electricity used is felt to be higher than that of other homes is an example of an item for inputting the user's perception of electricity use.

[0037] The number of people at home during the daytime on weekdays includes the number of people who are at home during the daytime on weekdays. This number may include, for example, people other than family members. The questionnaire may also include a question about the number of people at home during weekday nights.

[0038] The number of people at home during the daytime on a holiday includes the number of people who are at home during the daytime on a holiday (and / or public holiday). This number may include, for example, people other than family members. The questionnaire may also include a question about the number of people at home during the nighttime on a holiday.

[0039] Whether the amount of electricity used is perceived as being higher than that of other homes is subjective information of the user, such as whether the user thinks that the amount of electricity used is higher than that of other homes.

[0040] Note that the items of the user lifestyle information shown in Fig. 3 are merely examples, and are not limited to the items shown in Fig. 3. Furthermore, the number of items included in the user lifestyle information is not limited to three, and may be one or more.

[0041] The questionnaire may be entered in a multiple choice format, a free format, or a combination thereof.

[0042] The user lifestyle information acquiring unit 12 collects questionnaire data by acquiring the input results of the questionnaire shown in FIG.

[0043] The user lifestyle information acquisition unit 12 may be configured to include, for example, a communication circuit (communication module). Alternatively, the user lifestyle information acquisition unit 12 may include a button, a touch panel, a microphone, etc., and may be configured to acquire user lifestyle information directly from the user.

[0044] In this way, the business income prediction system 10 may acquire the results of a questionnaire about the user's lifestyle that is created independently in addition to the user's basic information. However, acquiring the user's lifestyle information is not essential.

[0045] The user lifestyle information acquiring unit 12 may acquire input results based on information acquired by at least one of the contents of a paper questionnaire, voice input, and telephone response. In other words, the user lifestyle information acquiring unit 12 is not limited to acquiring the input results of the questionnaire via the user terminal 20.

[0046] 1 again, the user information storage unit 13 is a storage device that stores various information related to the business income prediction in the business income prediction system 10. The user information storage unit 13 is configured to include, for example, a semiconductor memory, but is not limited to this.

[0047] The user information storage unit 13 stores basic user information and user lifestyle information about users who are considering joining the PPA business. The user information storage unit 13 may also store the business income forecast results predicted by the business income forecast unit 15, as well as the amount of power generation and contract decision results, which will be described later.

[0048] The user information storage unit 13 may also store history information that associates basic user information and lifestyle information about users who have previously predicted their business income with the actual business income at that time. The history information is used to train (or retrain) the prediction model used by the business income prediction unit 15.

[0049] The power generation information acquisition unit 14 acquires power generation information including the amount of power generated when a power generation facility using renewable energy is installed in a house where the power generation facility using renewable energy is to be installed.

[0050] In this embodiment, the power generation information acquisition unit 14 acquires power generation information including the amount of power generated assuming that the photovoltaic power generation equipment is installed in the home where the photovoltaic power generation equipment is planned to be installed. The power generation information acquisition unit 14 acquires the amount of power generated by estimating the amount of power generated in the home where the user lives or plans to live based on the user basic information. The power generation information acquisition unit 14 functions as a power generation amount estimation unit that estimates the amount of power generated.

[0051] For example, the power generation information acquisition unit 14 may estimate the amount of power generation that would be generated if a solar power generation system were installed at the user's home based on the residence included in the user basic information and the actual value of the amount of power generation at a home nearby the residence that has a solar power generation system installed. The power generation information acquisition unit 14 may estimate the amount of power generation for a user based on information such as the residence, floor plan, and power generation capacity of the solar power generation system. For example, if the power generation capacity of the solar power generation system installed at a home nearby the residence differs from the power generation capacity of the solar power generation system planned to be installed at the user's home, the power generation information acquisition unit 14 may correct the actual value of the amount of power generation at the neighboring home in accordance with the difference in power generation capacity.

[0052] Furthermore, the power generation information acquisition unit 14 may acquire data on the amount of solar radiation at a residence based on the residence included in the user basic information, and estimate the amount of power generation based on the acquired data on the amount of solar radiation.

[0053] The power generation information acquisition unit 14 may estimate at least one of the amount of power generated when a photovoltaic power generation system is installed in the user's home and the amount of power generated based on the amount of solar radiation at the residence.

[0054] The method for estimating the amount of power generated by the power generation information acquisition unit 14 is not limited to the above, and any known method may be used. Furthermore, the power generation information acquisition unit 14 may acquire power generation information including the amount of power generated estimated by a device external to the business income prediction system 10 via communication or the like.

[0055] The business income prediction unit 15 predicts business income (here, the PPA business income of the PPA operator) based on at least the user basic information and outputs the predicted business income. The prediction result includes information regarding the income the operator will receive when the user subscribes to or signs a contract with the operator. The business income prediction unit 15 may predict business income using the user basic information itself, may predict business income using information related to the user basic information, or may predict business income using both the user basic information itself and information related to the user basic information. Information related to the user basic information is, for example, information obtained from an external device based on the user basic information, such as weather information and sunshine information, but is not limited to these. The business income prediction unit 15 may also predict business income based on at least one of user lifestyle information and power generation amount.

[0056] The business income prediction unit 15 predicts business income using a pre-trained machine learning model. The machine learning model is a trained model trained by machine learning using user information, or user information and power generation amount, as input data and business income as correct answer data. When user information, or user information and power generation amount, is input, the business income corresponding to the user information, or user information and power generation amount, is output. The user information, or user information and power generation amount, are also referred to as explanatory variables, and business income is also referred to as target variable.

[0057] In this way, the business income prediction unit 15 uses the results of the questionnaire entered by the user to predict business income. By using the results of the questionnaire, information specific to the household that affects the power consumption of the user or the family can be obtained, making it possible to estimate power consumption more accurately than, for example, using a uniform average value of electricity consumption. Therefore, the prediction accuracy of business income predicted using power consumption also improves.

[0058] Examples of machine learning models include, but are not limited to, random forests, support vector machines (SVMs), deep learning, neural networks, etc. A machine learning model is an example of a regression model.

[0059] The business information acquisition unit 16 acquires business information relating to business goals from the PPA business operator. The business information acquisition unit 16 acquires the input results of a questionnaire for inputting business goals and the like.

[0060] FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of an input screen for business information according to this embodiment. The input screen shown in FIG. 4 is displayed, for example, on the display unit of the PPA business operator terminal 40. The PPA business operator terminal 40 is an information terminal owned by the PPA business operator, and includes a display unit such as a display that displays the input screen and the output screen, and a reception unit such as buttons, a touch panel, or a microphone that receives input from the PPA business operator in response to the displayed questionnaire. The PPA business operator terminal 40 may be, for example, a portable information terminal such as a smartphone or tablet, or a stationary information terminal such as a PC.

[0061] As shown in FIG. 4, the business information includes basic information and the current application status as information for determining the PPA business contract.

[0062] The basic information includes information about business goals such as how much monthly business revenue you are aiming for, in terms of man-hours, and how many people you can contract each month.

[0063] The amount you are aiming for as your monthly business income forecast is your monthly business income target.

[0064] From the standpoint of man-hours, the number of people who can be contracted each month is the target number of users who can be newly contracted each month.

[0065] The current application status shows the current status against the business goal, including, for example, how many applications are received each month.

[0066] Note that the items of the basic information and current application status shown in Fig. 4 are merely examples, and are not limited to the items shown in Fig. 4. Furthermore, the number of items included in the basic information and current application status is not particularly limited, and may be one or more.

[0067] The questionnaire may be entered in a multiple choice format, a free format, or a combination thereof.

[0068] The business information acquisition unit 16 collects questionnaire data by acquiring the input results of the questionnaire shown in FIG.

[0069] The business information acquisition unit 16 may be configured to include, for example, a communication circuit (communication module). Alternatively, the business information acquisition unit 16 may include a button, a touch panel, a microphone, etc., and may be configured to directly acquire business information from employees of the business operator, etc.

[0070] The business information acquisition unit 16 may acquire input results based on information acquired by at least one of the contents entered in a paper questionnaire, voice input, and telephone response. In other words, the business information acquisition unit 16 is not limited to acquiring the input results of the questionnaire via the PPA business terminal 40.

[0071] Referring again to FIG. 1 , the contract judgment and proposal unit 17 makes a judgment (contract judgment) regarding a contract (in this embodiment, a PPA contract) with a prospective user based on the business revenue forecast result, generates a contract judgment report based on the judgment result, and outputs the generated contract judgment report. The contract judgment and proposal unit 17 may, for example, determine whether or not a predetermined value or more of income can be obtained from the business revenue forecast result, and if an income equal to or greater than the predetermined value can be obtained, determine that the contract is recommended. Furthermore, the contract judgment and proposal unit 17 may make a judgment regarding a contract with a user based on the business information acquired by the business information acquisition unit 16 in addition to the business revenue forecast result.

[0072] Fig. 5 is a diagram showing an example of a contract judgment report according to this embodiment. Fig. 5 shows an example of an output screen for outputting a contract judgment report, which is displayed, for example, on the display unit of the PPA business operator terminal 40. Fig. 5 also shows a contract judgment report for user A as an example of a user. In the graph shown in Fig. 5, the horizontal axis represents business income, and the vertical axis represents the number of households that can obtain that business income.

[0073] As shown in FIG. 5, the contract decision report includes the business income forecast result for user A and recommended contract terms.

[0074] The business income forecast result for user A is a forecast result of the business income that the PPA company will obtain if it concludes a PPA contract with user A, and represents the forecast result by the business income forecasting unit 15. In the example of FIG. 5, the forecast result of the business income (e.g., the business income amount) if a contract is concluded with user A is indicated by a star in the graph. By displaying the forecast result in a graph in this manner, the PPA company can easily decide whether to conclude a contract with user A. In addition, information regarding the PPA company contract judgment criteria shown in FIG. 4 may be displayed as reference information. For example, a judgment result regarding a contract with a user, such as "If you are aiming for XX yen, we recommend signing a contract," may be displayed. In other words, information regarding a judgment obtained by comparing the PPA company contract judgment criteria with the forecast result by the business income forecasting unit 15 may be displayed. The contract judgment and proposal unit 17 may, for example, determine whether to recommend a contract based on the target amount of business income and the forecast result of the business income to be obtained if a contract is concluded with user A. "XX yen," the target amount of business income, an average value, etc. are examples of reference values ​​or thresholds for making a decision regarding a contract with a user.

[0075] In addition, information regarding a judgment obtained by comparing the prediction result by the business income prediction unit 15 with the average value may be displayed. For example, information such as "The business income is predicted to be △△ yen. A higher income than the average for a four-person household is expected." may be displayed. Note that the prediction result by the business income prediction unit 15 is input as △△ yen.

[0076] The recommended contract terms indicate contract terms recommended from the perspective of further increasing business income. For example, the business income prediction unit 15 can predict business income when the power generation capacity of a renewable energy power generation facility (here, a solar power generation facility) is changed (e.g., increased) by inputting information about the change in power generation capacity into a machine learning model. For example, the business income prediction unit 15 may simulate business income for each power generation capacity of the solar power generation facility. Then, taking into account the roof capacity of the planned home, the power generation capacity at which business income is maximized or exceeds a predetermined value and the business income at that time (or the amount of increase in business income due to the change in power generation capacity) may be displayed on the display unit. For example, information such as "Assuming the roof capacity of your home is ..., if you install solar panels with a maximum income condition of XX kW, the business income of XX yen is predicted," along with one or more (e.g., two or more) business incomes for each power generation capacity may be displayed.

[0077] By presenting such a contract judgment report to the PPA business, the business income forecasting system 10 can assist the PPA business in making a judgment on whether or not to enter into a contract with User A. Note that it is not essential that the contract judgment report include recommended contract terms. The contract judgment proposal unit 17 only needs to have at least a function related to contract judgment, and may function as a contract judgment unit.

[0078] The business income prediction system 10 is not limited to including all of the components described above. The business income prediction system 10 only needs to include at least the user basic information acquisition unit 11 and the business income prediction unit 15.

[0079] 2. Operation of the Business Revenue Prediction System Next, the operation of the business revenue prediction system 10 configured as described above will be described with reference to Figures 6 to 12. Figure 6 is a sequence diagram showing an operation example 1 (business revenue prediction method) of the entire system including the business revenue prediction system 10 according to this embodiment.

[0080] The overall system includes a business income prediction system 10, a user terminal 20, and a PPA operator terminal 40.

[0081] 6, the user terminal 20 acquires user information input by the user (S11). The user terminal 20 acquires the user information input on the input screen shown in FIG.

[0082] Next, the user information from the user terminal 20 is stored in the user information storage unit 13 (S12). For example, the user basic information acquisition unit 11 and / or the user lifestyle information acquisition unit 12 receives the user information transmitted from the user terminal 20 and stores the received user information in the user information storage unit 13.

[0083] Next, the business income prediction system 10 reads user information from the user information storage unit 13 (S13), predicts business income if a contract is concluded with the user based on the read user information, and outputs the prediction result to the PPA operator terminal 40 and the user information storage unit 13 (S14, S15). The prediction result here includes information indicating the amount of business income. The prediction result may include, for example, the graph shown in FIG. 5. By outputting the prediction result to the user information storage unit 13, the user information storage unit 13 can store the information used in the prediction, such as the user information, in association with the prediction result.

[0084] 7 is a flowchart showing an operation example 1 (business income prediction method) of the business income prediction system 10 according to the present embodiment. In FIG. 7, the operation is shown when only user basic information is used as user information.

[0085] As shown in FIG. 7, the user basic information acquisition unit 11 acquires user basic information from the user terminal 20 (S101), and stores the acquired user basic information in the user information storage unit 13 (S102).

[0086] Next, the business income prediction unit 15 acquires user information by reading out user information (here, user basic information) from the user information storage unit 13 at the timing of predicting business income (S103).

[0087] Next, the business income prediction unit 15 predicts the business income if a contract is concluded with the user based on the user information acquired in step S103 (S104), and outputs the predicted business income result to the PPA operator terminal 40 (S105). The business income prediction unit 15 also outputs the predicted business income result to the user information storage unit 13, thereby storing the predicted business income result in the user information storage unit 13 (S106).

[0088] The business income prediction result is obtained by inputting the user's basic information into the machine learning model. The prediction result is transmitted to the PPA operator terminal 40 via, for example, a communication unit (not shown) included in the business income prediction system 10. The communication unit includes, for example, a communication circuit (communication module).

[0089] 8 is a flowchart showing a modified example (business income prediction method) of the operation example 1 of the business income prediction system 10 according to the present embodiment. Fig. 8 shows the operation when user lifestyle information is used as user information in addition to user basic information. The following description will focus on the differences from Fig. 7, and the same or similar parts as Fig. 7 will be denoted by the same reference numerals and will not be described again.

[0090] 8, the user lifestyle information acquisition unit 12 acquires user lifestyle information from the user terminal 20 (S111) and stores the acquired user lifestyle information in the user information storage unit 13 (S102). As a result, both the user basic information and the user lifestyle information are stored in the user information storage unit 13.

[0091] Next, the business income prediction unit 15 acquires user information (here, user basic information and user lifestyle information) from the user information storage unit 13 at the timing of predicting the business income (S103), and predicts the business income if a contract is made with the user based on the acquired user basic information and user lifestyle information (S104). Here, the business income prediction unit 15 predicts the business income by inputting each of the user basic information and the user lifestyle information into a machine learning model.

[0092] Next, an operation example 2 will be described with reference to FIGS.

[0093] 9 is a sequence diagram showing an operation example 2 (business income prediction method) of the entire system including the business income prediction system 10 according to this embodiment. FIG. 9 shows the operation when the business income prediction unit 15 predicts business income using the amount of power generation in addition to the operation example 1. The following description will focus on the differences from FIG. 6, and the same or similar parts will be denoted by the same reference numerals and will not be described again.

[0094] 9, the power generation information acquisition unit 14 acquires user information from the user information storage unit 13 (S21). Specifically, the power generation information acquisition unit 14 acquires user basic information from the user information storage unit 13.

[0095] Next, the power generation information acquisition unit 14 acquires the amount of power generation by estimating the amount of power generation at the home where the user lives or plans to live based on the user's basic information (e.g., place of residence), and outputs the acquired amount of power generation to the business income prediction unit 15 (S22).

[0096] Next, the business income prediction unit 15 acquires the user information and the amount of power generation, and predicts the business income when a contract is concluded with the user based on the user information and the amount of power generation. The user information here may include only the user basic information, or may include both the user basic information and the user lifestyle information.

[0097] 10 is a flowchart showing an operation example 2 (business income forecasting method) of the business income forecasting system 10 according to the present embodiment. The following description will focus on the differences from FIG. 8, and the same or similar parts as those in FIG. 8 will be denoted by the same reference numerals and will not be described again.

[0098] 10 , the power generation information acquisition unit 14 acquires the amount of power generation by estimating the amount of power generation at the residence where the user lives or plans to live based on the user's basic information (e.g., place of residence) (S121). The estimated amount of power generation is output to the business income prediction unit 15. The power generation information acquisition unit 14 may store the estimated amount of power generation in the user information storage unit 13.

[0099] Next, the business income prediction unit 15 predicts business income when a contract is concluded with the user based on the user information and the amount of power generation. The business income prediction unit 15 inputs the user information and the amount of power generation into a machine learning model, and obtains business income as an output of the machine learning model.

[0100] Next, operation example 3 will be described with reference to Figs. 11 and 12. Fig. 11 is a sequence diagram showing operation example 3 (business income forecasting method) of the entire system including the business income forecasting system 10 according to this embodiment. Fig. 11 shows the operation when the contract judgment proposal unit 17 makes a contract judgment and outputs a contract judgment report. Note that the following description will focus on differences from Fig. 9, and the same or similar parts as Fig. 9 will be denoted by the same reference numerals and will not be described again.

[0101] 11 , the contract judgment proposal unit 17 acquires business information from the PPA business operator terminal 40 (S31). The PPA business operator terminal 40 acquires, for example, the business information input into the input screen shown in FIG. 4. The contract judgment proposal unit 17 acquires the business information from the PPA business operator terminal 40 via communication, for example. Note that in this operation example, it is not essential that the business information be acquired.

[0102] Next, the business income prediction unit 15 outputs the business income prediction result to the contract decision proposal unit 17 (S32). The prediction result here may be a prediction result based on at least the user basic information, and at least one of the user lifestyle information and the amount of power generation may not be used in the business income prediction.

[0103] Next, the contract judgment proposal unit 17 generates a contract judgment report based on the business information and the prediction result, and outputs the generated contract judgment report to the PPA business terminal 40 (S33). The contract judgment report may include, for example, a judgment result regarding the contract with the user, and at least one of a reference value and a threshold value for making a judgment regarding the contract with the user. The contract judgment report may include, for example, the information shown in FIG. 5.

[0104] Furthermore, the contract judgment proposal unit 17 outputs the contract judgment result based on the judgment result regarding the contract with the user to the user information storage unit 13, thereby storing the contract judgment result in the user information storage unit 13 (S34). The contract judgment result may be the same information as the contract judgment report.

[0105] 12 is a flowchart showing an operation example 3 (business income forecasting method) of the business income forecasting system 10 according to the present embodiment. The following description will focus on the differences from FIG. 10, and the same or similar parts as those in FIG. 10 will be denoted by the same reference numerals and will not be described again.

[0106] 12, the business information acquisition unit 16 acquires business information from the PPA business terminal 40 (S131). Note that the timing of acquiring the business information is not limited to after step S106, and it may be sufficient if the business information is acquired before the processing of step S132 is executed, for example.

[0107] Next, the contract judgment and proposal unit 17 makes a contract judgment as to whether or not it is advisable to enter into a contract with the user based on the business information and the business income forecast result (S132). The contract judgment and proposal unit 17 may make a judgment as to whether or not to enter into a contract by comparing a threshold based on the business information with the business income forecast result.

[0108] Next, the contract judgment proposal unit 17 generates a contract judgment report including the contract judgment result and the business income forecast result, and outputs the generated contract judgment report to the PPA business operator terminal 40 (S133). The contract judgment proposal unit 17 transmits the contract judgment report to the PPA business operator terminal 40 by communication via, for example, a communication unit (not shown) provided in the business income forecast system 10.

[0109] Next, the contract judgment proposal unit 17 stores the contract judgment result in the user information storage unit 13 (S134). The process of step S134 corresponds to the process of step S34 shown in FIG.

[0110] (Effects, etc.) The invention derived from the disclosure of this specification and the effects, etc. obtained by the invention will be described below.

[0111] (Technology 1) A business income prediction system including a user basic information acquisition unit that acquires the results of a questionnaire for inputting user basic information linked to a user who plans to enter into a contract with a PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) business operator or a retail electricity business operator, and a business income prediction unit that predicts business income based on the user basic information.

[0112] This allows business income to be predicted using user basic information associated with the user. In other words, business income can be predicted using information specific to the user. Therefore, the business income prediction system can predict business income more accurately than when user-specific information, such as average power consumption, is not used.

[0113] (Technology 2) A business income prediction system according to Technology 1, in which the prediction results of the business income prediction unit include information regarding the income that the PPA company or the retail electricity company will obtain when the user enters into a contract with the PPA company or the retail electricity company.

[0114] This allows the business operator to more accurately predict the income that the business operator will receive when a user joins or signs a contract with the business.

[0115] (Technology 3) The business income prediction unit is a business income prediction system according to Technology 1 or 2, which predicts business income using at least one of the user basic information and information obtained from an external device based on the user basic information.

[0116] This allows business income to be predicted using at least one of the user basic information itself and information acquired from an external source.

[0117] (Technology 4) The business income prediction system according to any one of Technologies 1 to 3, further comprising a user lifestyle information acquisition unit that acquires the results of a questionnaire for inputting user lifestyle information based on awareness of electricity usage or lifestyle, and the business income prediction unit further predicts the business income based on the user lifestyle information.

[0118] This allows business income to be predicted using user lifestyle information, which is information specific to the user, and therefore allows for more accurate business income prediction.

[0119] (Technology 5) A business income prediction system according to any one of technologies 1 to 4, further comprising a power generation information acquisition unit that estimates the amount of power generation at the residence where the user lives or where the user plans to live based on the user basic information, and the business income prediction unit further predicts the business income based on the amount of power generation.

[0120] This allows the estimated power generation amount to be further used to predict business income, thereby enabling more accurate prediction of business income.

[0121] (Technology 6) The user is a user who plans to enter into a contract with the PPA operator, and the power generation information acquisition unit is a business income prediction system of Technology 5 that estimates at least one of the amount of power generated when solar power generation equipment is installed in the user's home and the amount of power generated based on the amount of solar radiation at the user's residence.

[0122] This makes it possible to estimate the amount of power generated when a photovoltaic power generation facility is installed, or the amount of power generated based on the amount of solar radiation.

[0123] (Technology 7) The business income prediction system of Technology 2 further comprises a contract judgment unit that makes a judgment regarding a contract with the user based on the prediction result of the business income predicted by the business income prediction unit.

[0124] This allows automatic decisions regarding contracts. When a PPA business decides whether to conduct business (whether to enter into a contract with a user), it can refer to the results of the business income forecasting system. Therefore, the business income forecasting system can assist PPA businesses in making business decisions.

[0125] (Technology 8) The business income forecasting system of any of Technologies 1 to 7 further includes a business information acquisition unit that acquires business information related to the business goals of the PPA business operator or the retail electricity business operator, and the contract judgment unit further makes a judgment regarding the contract with the user based on the business information.

[0126] As a result, since information specific to the business is used, decisions that are more appropriate for the business can be made. Therefore, the business income forecasting system can more appropriately support PPA business operators in making decisions regarding their business.

[0127] (Technology 9) The business income forecasting system of Technology 8, wherein the business goal includes at least one of a target value for business income and the number of people available for contracting.

[0128] This allows the acquisition of business information that includes at least one of the target business revenue and the number of people who can be contracted. Such values ​​can be used as reference values ​​or thresholds for business decisions. The use of such reference values ​​or thresholds can more appropriately support the PPA business in making business decisions.

[0129] (Technology 10) The contract judgment unit is a business income forecasting system according to any one of technologies 7 to 9, which outputs a judgment result regarding the contract with the user and at least one of a reference value and a threshold value for making a judgment regarding the contract with the user.

[0130] This allows at least one of the reference value and threshold value used in the judgment to be output, thereby providing more appropriate support for PPA operators in making business-related judgments.

[0131] (Technology 11) The business income prediction system according to any one of Technologies 1 to 10, wherein the user basic information acquisition unit acquires at least two pieces of information, including one or more pieces of information indicating the attributes of the user and one or more pieces of information regarding the user's home, as input results to a questionnaire in which the user basic information is entered.

[0132] This allows business income to be predicted using two or more pieces of information specific to a user, thereby making it possible to predict business income more accurately.

[0133] (Technology 12) A business income prediction method that obtains the results of a questionnaire for inputting basic user information linked to users who plan to join a PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) business or users who plan to enter into a contract with a retail electricity supplier, and predicts business income based on the basic user information.

[0134] This provides the same effect as the business income forecasting system described above.

[0135] (Technology 13) A program for causing a computer to execute the business income forecasting method of Technology 12.

[0136] This provides the same effect as the business income forecasting system described above.

[0137] These general or specific aspects may be realized as a system, a method, an integrated circuit, a computer program, or a non-transitory recording medium such as a computer-readable CD-ROM, or as any combination of the system, method, integrated circuit, computer program, or recording medium. The program may be pre-stored in the recording medium, or may be supplied to the recording medium via a wide area communication network including the Internet.

[0138] While the business income forecasting system 10 according to one or more aspects has been described above based on the embodiments, the present invention is not limited to these embodiments. As long as the modifications do not deviate from the spirit of the present invention, modifications that would occur to those skilled in the art and modifications constructed by combining components of different embodiments may also be included in the present invention.

[0139] For example, the operations shown in FIGS. 6 to 12 according to the above-described embodiment are executed before a company operating an electric power business, such as a PPA company, enters into a contract with a user.

[0140] Furthermore, for example, the consumer in the above embodiment may be an individual or a company. In other words, the target where a power generation business operator, such as a PPA operator, installs power generation equipment that generates electricity using renewable energy may be a residential facility such as a home, or a non-residential facility. The residential facility may be a detached house or an apartment building. Examples of non-residential facilities include commercial facilities (commercial facilities other than detached houses), such as, but not limited to, stores, office buildings, schools, welfare facilities, commercial complexes, hospitals, factories, etc. The questionnaire described above in FIGS. 2 and 3 may be, for example, a questionnaire targeted at commercial facilities, etc. The questionnaire may include content targeted at commercial facilities, etc. For example, the questionnaire may include content related to information other than the user's lifestyle, such as working style at the commercial facility, instead of the user's lifestyle.

[0141] In the above embodiments, each component may be configured with dedicated hardware, or may be realized by executing a software program suitable for each component. Each component may be realized by a program execution unit such as a CPU or processor reading and executing a software program recorded on a recording medium such as a hard disk or semiconductor memory.

[0142] The order in which the steps in the flowchart are executed is merely an example for specifically explaining the present invention, and other orders may be used. Some of the steps may be executed simultaneously (in parallel) with other steps, or some of the steps may not be executed.

[0143] The division of functional blocks in the block diagram is an example, and multiple functional blocks may be realized as a single functional block, one functional block may be divided into multiple blocks, or some functions may be moved to another functional block.Furthermore, the functions of multiple functional blocks having similar functions may be processed in parallel or time-shared by a single piece of hardware or software.

[0144] Furthermore, the business income forecasting system 10 according to the above embodiment may be realized as a single device or may be realized by multiple devices. When the business income forecasting system 10 is realized by multiple devices, the components of the business income forecasting system 10 may be distributed among the multiple devices in any manner. When the business income forecasting system 10 is realized by multiple devices, the communication method between the multiple devices is not particularly limited and may be wireless communication or wired communication. Furthermore, wireless communication and wired communication may be combined between the devices.

[0145] Furthermore, each component described in the above embodiments may be implemented as software or, typically, as an LSI, which is an integrated circuit. These components may be individually integrated into a single chip, or some or all of them may be integrated into a single chip. While the term "LSI" is used here, it may also be referred to as an IC, system LSI, super LSI, or ultra LSI depending on the level of integration. Furthermore, the integrated circuit implementation is not limited to LSIs; it may also be implemented using dedicated circuits (general-purpose circuits that execute dedicated programs) or general-purpose processors. Field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), which can be programmed after LSI fabrication, or reconfigurable processors, which allow the connection or settings of circuit cells within an LSI to be reconfigured, may also be used. Furthermore, if an integrated circuit implementation technology that replaces LSIs emerges due to advances in semiconductor technology or other derivative technologies, that technology may naturally be used to integrate the components.

[0146] A system LSI is an ultra-multifunctional LSI manufactured by integrating multiple processing units on a single chip. Specifically, it is a computer system that includes a microprocessor, ROM (Read Only Memory), RAM (Random Access Memory), etc. Computer programs are stored in the ROM. The system LSI achieves its functions when the microprocessor operates in accordance with the computer program.

[0147] Another aspect of the present invention may be a computer program that causes a computer to execute each of the characteristic steps included in the business income prediction method shown in any of FIGS.

[0148] Furthermore, for example, the program may be a program to be executed by a computer. Another aspect of the present invention may be a computer-readable non-transitory recording medium on which such a program is recorded. For example, such a program may be recorded on a recording medium and distributed or circulated. For example, the distributed program may be installed in a device having another processor, and the program may be executed by the processor, thereby causing the device to perform each of the above processes.

[0149] 10 Business income prediction system 11 User basic information acquisition unit 12 User lifestyle information acquisition unit 14 Power generation information acquisition unit 15 Business income prediction unit (output unit) 16 Business information acquisition unit 17 Contract judgment and proposal unit (contract judgment unit, output unit)

Claims

1. A business income prediction system comprising: a user basic information acquisition unit that acquires the results of a questionnaire for inputting user basic information linked to a user who plans to enter into a contract with a PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) business operator or a retail electricity business operator; and a business income prediction unit that predicts business income based on the user basic information.

2. The business income prediction system of claim 1, wherein the prediction results of the business income prediction unit include information regarding the income that the PPA company or the retail electricity company will obtain when the user enters into a contract with the PPA company or the retail electricity company.

3. A business income prediction system as described in claim 1 or 2, wherein the business income prediction unit predicts business income using at least one of the user basic information and information obtained from an external device based on the user basic information.

4. A business income prediction system as described in claim 1 or 2, further comprising a user lifestyle information acquisition unit that acquires the results of a questionnaire for inputting user lifestyle information based on awareness of electricity usage or lifestyle, and the business income prediction unit further predicts the business income based on the user lifestyle information.

5. A business income prediction system as described in claim 1 or 2, further comprising a power generation information acquisition unit that estimates the amount of power generation at the residence where the user lives or where the user plans to live based on the user basic information, and the business income prediction unit further predicts the business income based on the amount of power generation.

6. The business income prediction system described in claim 5, wherein the user is a user who plans to enter into a contract with the PPA provider, and the power generation information acquisition unit estimates at least one of the amount of power generated when a solar power generation facility is installed in the user's home and the amount of power generated based on the amount of solar radiation at the user's residence.

7. The business income forecasting system according to claim 2, further comprising a contract decision unit that makes a decision regarding a contract with the user based on the forecast result of the business income predicted by the business income forecasting unit.

8. The business income forecasting system of claim 7 further comprises a business information acquisition unit that acquires business information related to the business goals of the PPA operator or the retail electricity supplier, and the contract decision unit further makes a decision regarding the contract with the user based on the business information.

9. The business income forecasting system according to claim 8, wherein the business goal includes at least one of a target value for business income and the number of people available for contracting.

10. A business income forecasting system as described in any one of claims 7 to 9, wherein the contract judgment unit outputs a judgment result regarding the contract with the user and at least one of a reference value and a threshold value for making a judgment regarding the contract with the user.

11. A business income prediction system as described in claim 1 or 2, wherein the user basic information acquisition unit acquires at least two pieces of information from among one or more pieces of information indicating the attributes of the user and one or more pieces of information regarding the user's home as input results to a questionnaire in which the user basic information is entered.

12. A business income forecasting method, comprising: acquiring the results of a questionnaire for inputting basic user information linked to a user who plans to enter into a contract with a PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) business operator or a retail electricity business operator; and forecasting business income based on the basic user information.

13. A program for causing a computer to execute the business income forecasting method according to claim 12.

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