Estimation device, estimation method, and bearing life extension method

Abstract

This estimation device identifies, for each of eight ranges, an operation time during which the bearing temperature and the rotation speed are within the range, and estimates the occurrence of peeling or the like on the basis of the operation time for each of the eight ranges and a corrected rated life for each of the eight ranges.

Description

Estimation device, estimation method, and bearing life extension method

[0001] This disclosure relates to an estimation device, an estimation method, and a method for extending the lifespan of bearings.

[0002] For example, Japanese Patent Publication No. 2021-12185 (Patent Document 1) discloses a life-life diagnosis method for diagnosing the lifespan of a bearing. This life-life diagnosis method allows bearing managers and others to recognize the lifespan of a bearing.

[0003] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2021-12185

[0004] Generally, when a bearing fails due to its lifespan, the worker needs to replace it. However, replacing a bearing incurs significant costs. Therefore, it is preferable for the worker to recognize damage to the bearing before it fails due to its lifespan and to perform maintenance to extend its life. However, conventional lifespan diagnosis methods have not taken into consideration the detection of bearing damage before it fails.

[0005] This disclosure is made to solve the above-mentioned problems, and its purpose is to estimate at least one of the following: the occurrence of bearing damage, the future timing of such damage, the degree of bearing fatigue, or to extend the life of the bearing.

[0006] The estimation device of this disclosure comprises an interface for acquiring a first physical quantity of a bearing for which a rated life is defined, a memory for storing range information relating to a plurality of first ranges of the first physical quantity, and a control device. The modified rated life is associated with each of the plurality of first ranges. For each of the plurality of first ranges, the control device identifies a time parameter relating to the time in which the first physical quantity acquired by the interface belongs to that first range. The control device estimates at least one of the following: whether bearing damage has occurred or, if no damage has occurred, the future timing of damage, and the bearing fatigue level, based on the time parameter for each of the plurality of first ranges and the modified rated life for each of the plurality of first ranges.

[0007] The estimation method of this disclosure comprises obtaining a first physical quantity of a bearing for which a rated life is defined. The estimation method also comprises identifying a time parameter relating to the time to which the first physical quantity belongs for each of a plurality of first ranges of the first physical quantity. Furthermore, the estimation method comprises estimating at least one of the following based on the time parameter for each of the plurality of first ranges and the modified rated life for each of the plurality of first ranges: whether or not the bearing is damaged, when the damage will occur in the future, and the degree of fatigue of the bearing.

[0008] The life extension method of this disclosure comprises obtaining a first physical quantity of a bearing whose rated life is defined. The life extension method also comprises identifying a time parameter relating to the time to which the first physical quantity belongs for each of a plurality of first ranges of the first physical quantity. The life extension method also comprises estimating the future timing of bearing damage based on the time parameter for each of the plurality of first ranges and the modified rated life for each of the plurality of first ranges. Furthermore, the life extension method comprises extending the life of the bearing based on the timing of the damage. The bearing comprises a predetermined member and a lubricant for lubricating the predetermined member. Extending the life of the bearing also includes at least one of the following: suppressing the operation of a rotating machine including the bearing; replacing the lubricant; flushing the lubricant; and adding an additive to the lubricant to reduce protrusions caused by damage.

[0009] According to this disclosure, it is possible to estimate at least one of the following: the occurrence of bearing damage, the future timing of such damage, the degree of bearing fatigue, or to extend the life of the bearing.

[0010] This is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of the management system of this disclosure. This is a diagram for explaining delamination. This is a diagram for explaining micropitting. This is a diagram showing a part of the reliability coefficient. This is a diagram for explaining the contamination coefficient. This is a diagram showing a function for calculating the modified rated life. This is a diagram for explaining the estimation of total fatigue. This is a functional block diagram of the estimation device. This is a flowchart of the estimation device. This is a flowchart of the estimation device. This is a flowchart of the estimation device. This is a diagram for explaining an example of soundness. This is a diagram for explaining the image displayed by the operator terminal. This is a diagram for explaining the image displayed by the operator terminal. This is a diagram for explaining the image displayed by the operator terminal. This is a diagram for explaining the image displayed by the operator terminal. This is a flowchart for explaining the operator's processing. This is a flowchart for explaining the operator's processing. This is a flowchart for explaining the operator's processing. This is a flowchart for explaining the operator's processing. This is a flowchart for explaining the operator's processing. This is a flowchart for explaining the user's processing. This is a diagram for explaining the maintenance method of the bearing. This is a diagram for explaining specific methods for the first to fourth situations. This is a diagram for explaining the first recommended image. This is a diagram for explaining the second recommended image. This is a diagram for explaining the third recommended image. This is a diagram for explaining the fourth recommended image. This is a diagram for explaining the fifth recommended image. This is a flowchart of the estimation device. This is an example of an observation image. This is an example of an observation image. This is an example of an observation image. This is a diagram to explain specific alternative methods for situations 1 through 4. This is a flowchart of the estimation device. This is a diagram to explain the preferred amount of additive components.

[0011] The embodiments of this disclosure will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings. In the embodiments described below, when numbers, quantities, etc. are mentioned, the scope of this disclosure is not necessarily limited to those numbers, quantities, etc., unless otherwise specified. The same reference numerals will be used for the same parts and equivalent parts, and redundant descriptions will not be repeated. It is intended from the outset that the configurations in the embodiments will be used in appropriate combinations.

[0012] <First Embodiment> [Premise] First, the premise of this embodiment will be explained. Generally, when mechanical parts such as bearings used in large machinery such as wind power generation equipment are damaged, workers need to replace the bearings. However, replacing bearings incurs significant costs. Therefore, it is preferable to prevent or suppress damage such as "peeling" that can trigger bearing damage, in order to prevent damage to the bearings from occurring.

[0013] However, the mechanism of bearing damage is complex and varies depending on operating conditions. Therefore, a challenge arises in that preventing and suppressing damage is difficult unless appropriate measures are taken according to the damage mechanism. This challenge is particularly evident in wind power generation equipment, where operating conditions change depending on wind conditions. In addition, workers generally carry out measures to prevent damage to bearings in wind power generation equipment (hereinafter also referred to as "damage prevention measures") inside the nacelle, which is located at a high altitude. Therefore, the cost of implementing damage prevention measures tends to be high. Thus, it is desirable to suppress the wasted costs incurred by implementing ineffective damage prevention measures.

[0014] The bearing maintenance method provided in this embodiment can effectively prevent and suppress the occurrence of major damage that could be fatal to the bearing. Therefore, the bearing maintenance method provided in this embodiment can reduce the operating costs, especially for large machinery and equipment.

[0015] [Management System] Figure 1 shows an example configuration of the management system 10 of this disclosure. The management system 10 of this disclosure comprises at least one wind power generation unit 60 and an estimation device 100. The estimation device 100 can communicate with a collection device 30, a user terminal 50 (described later), and a worker terminal 70 (described later) via a network NW. In this disclosure, the processing of the estimation device 100 includes both execution by the estimation device 100 itself and execution shared between the estimation device 100 and at least one information processing device (not shown). Furthermore, the management system 10 employs a so-called CMS (Condition Monitoring System). The estimation device 100 is also referred to as, for example, a "condition monitoring device".

[0016] The wind power generation unit 60 includes a wind power generation device 20 and a collection device 30. The wind power generation device 20 is a device that generates electricity by receiving wind power. The wind power generation device 20 corresponds to an example of a "rotating machine" in this disclosure.

[0017] The wind power generation device 20 includes a bearing 120 and a detection device 130, among other things. The device including the bearing 120 is also called a drive device. The drive device includes, for example, a speed increaser and a generator.

[0018] The detection device 130 detects operating data. The operating data is data related to the operation of the wind power generation device 20. The operating data is information used by the estimation device 100 to determine damage to the bearing 120, etc. The operating data is, for example, physical quantities of the bearing 120. In this embodiment, the physical quantities are the rotational speed of the rotating shaft of the bearing 120, the temperature of the bearing 120, and the vibration value of the bearing 120, as described later.

[0019] The detection device 130 includes, for example, at least one sensor that detects a physical quantity of the bearing 120. The detection device 130 may also be an imaging device that images a predetermined location of the bearing 120. The image data of the image captured by the detection device 130 becomes the operating data. The detection device 130 includes a speed sensor 41, a temperature sensor 42, a vibration sensor 43, and the like.

[0020] The bearing 120 is a rolling bearing or a sliding bearing, etc. In this embodiment, the bearing 120 is a rolling bearing. The bearing 120 includes rolling elements 191, raceway rings 192, and lubricant 193, etc. The rolling elements 191 are "rollers" or "balls".

[0021] The surface of the rolling element 191 and the surface of the raceway ring 192 are in contact. The lubricant 193 mainly lubricates the contact area between the rolling element 191 and the raceway ring 192. The contact area may be the rolling contact area between the raceway surface of the raceway ring (inner or outer ring) and the rolling surface of the rolling element. Alternatively, the contact area may be the sliding area between the flange of the raceway ring and the end face of the rolling element. At least one of the rolling element 191 and the raceway ring 192 corresponds to the “predetermined member” of this disclosure. In a device including a bearing 120, the rotating member is also referred to as a rotating body. The rotating body includes, for example, a rotating shaft held by the bearing 120.

[0022] The speed sensor 41 detects the rotational speed of the rotating body (for example, the rotating shaft) of the bearing 120 under inspection. The temperature sensor 42 detects the temperature (bearing temperature) of the bearing 120 under inspection. The vibration sensor 43 detects the vibration value of the bearing 120 under inspection. In this embodiment, the speed sensor 41 and the temperature sensor 42 are mainly used.

[0023] The physical quantities detected by the detection device 130 are transmitted to the collection device 30 as time-series data. These physical quantities include the rotational speed of the rotating shaft detected by the speed sensor 41, the bearing temperature of the bearing 120 detected by the temperature sensor 42, and the vibration value detected by the vibration sensor 43. Hereafter, the time-series data of rotational speed and the time-series data of bearing temperature may be collectively referred to as "operation data".

[0024] The speed sensor 41 is also referred to as the "first sensor." The rotational speed of the rotating shaft detected by the speed sensor 41 corresponds to the "first physical quantity" in this disclosure. The temperature sensor 42 is also referred to as the "second sensor." The bearing temperature of the bearing 120 detected by the temperature sensor 42 corresponds to the "second physical quantity" in this disclosure.

[0025] The collection device 30 transmits operation data (rotation speed from the speed sensor 41 and bearing temperature from the temperature sensor 42) to the estimation device 100 via the network NW.

[0026] The user terminal 50 is the terminal device of user A. The "user" typically refers to a person who owns the wind power generation device 20 or an operator of the wind power generation device 20. Also, the user terminal 50 is typically a portable terminal that user A can carry. The user terminal 50 may be a stationary computer terminal. Also, at least one of user A and worker B may be referred to as the "user".

[0027] The worker terminal 70 is the terminal device of worker B. The "worker" typically refers to a person who performs maintenance on the wind power generation device 20. Maintenance includes inspection, repair, etc. of the wind power generation device 20. Repair includes replacement of the lubricant 193 of the bearing 120, etc.

[0028] The worker terminal 70 is typically a portable terminal that worker B can carry. Also, the worker terminal 70 may be a stationary computer terminal. Worker B executes the maintenance shown in the image displayed on the worker terminal 70. In addition, worker B regularly inspects (maintains) the wind power generation device 20. Worker B inputs inspection data indicating the results of the regular inspection to the worker terminal 70. The worker terminal 70 transmits the input inspection data to the estimation device 100. Note that the inspection data may be transmitted to the collection device 30 and then transmitted from the collection device 30 to the estimation device 100. The inspection data and the operation data are also collectively referred to as damage data. The damage data is, for example, data for the estimation device 100 to identify the presence or absence of the establishment of the first to seventh conditions described later.

[0029] Each of at least one wind power generation device 20 included in the management system 10 is assigned a wind power generation device ID (identification). Also, each of at least one user terminal 50 included in the management system 10 is assigned a user terminal ID. Further, each of at least one operator terminal 70 included in the management system 10 is assigned an operator terminal ID. Additionally, a bearing ID is assigned to each bearing 120 of at least one wind power generation device 20.

[0030] One wind power generation device ID is associated with at least one of the user terminal ID and the operator terminal ID. The estimation device 100 holds a table (not shown) indicating this association. The estimation device 100 refers to this table and transmits image data to the user terminal 50 or the operator terminal 70.

[0031] The estimation device 100 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 102, a memory 104, and an interface 106. The CPU 102 executes various processes. The CPU 102 corresponds to the "control device" of the present disclosure. The control device may also be referred to as a control circuit.

[0032] The memory 104 includes a ROM (Read Only Memory), a RAM (Random Access Memory), and the like. The ROM is a non-rewritable non-volatile memory, and the RAM is a volatile memory.

[0033] A program in which the processing procedure of the CPU 102 is described is stored in the ROM. The CPU 102 expands and executes the program stored in the ROM in the RAM or the like. The interface 106 communicates with external devices (collection device 30, user terminal 50, and operator terminal 70) via the network NW.

[0034] When the estimation device 100 acquires operating data from the collection device 30, it performs the sorting process described later on the operating data in real time. The estimation device 100 uses the data after this sorting process (see Figure 7 described later) to detect damage. Damage in this embodiment includes micropitting and delamination. Micropitting and delamination can occur on at least one surface (contact portion) of the rolling element 191 and the raceway wheel 192 (see Figures 2 and 3 described later).

[0035] Delamination and micropitting correspond to “damage” as defined in this disclosure. Micropitting also corresponds to an example of “first damage” as defined in this disclosure. Delamination corresponds to an example of “second damage” as defined in this disclosure. Second damage may also include, for example, at least one of wear and false brinering. False brinering is a wear mark caused by minute vibrations of the bearing 120, etc.

[0036] [Delamination and Micropitting] Next, delamination and micropitting that may occur in the bearing 120 will be described. Typically, delamination is a more severe form of damage than micropitting. Damage scale refers to the approximate diameter of the delaminated area when viewed from a vertically upward direction, and a larger scale means a larger approximate diameter.

[0037] Delamination typically involves damage of 100 μm or more on at least one surface of the rolling element 191 and the raceway 192. Micropitting typically involves a collection of minute damages of approximately 10 μm on at least one surface of the rolling element 191 and the raceway 192. The scale of micropitting damage can be determined by the approximate diameter of each individual minute damage.

[0038] Figure 2 is a diagram illustrating delamination. In the example in Figure 2(A), delamination 180 that has occurred on the surface 191A of the rolling element 191 is shown. The occurrence of delamination 180 forms a recess 180A. Furthermore, the edge 180B of the recess 180A is formed.

[0039] In this embodiment, if it is determined that peeling 180 has occurred, an additive is added to the lubricant 193 by worker B or the like. Here, the additive is used to increase the radius of curvature of the edge 180B of the recess 180A. The additive is also called a concentrate. The additive includes a first component, a second component, graphite, and muscovite. The first component is a component belonging to a three-layer silicate. The second component is at least one of bentonite, exothermic silica, and talc. The process of adding the additive to the lubricant 193 includes at least one of the following: adding the additive to the existing lubricant 193 of the bearing 120, and replacing the lubricant 193 with a lubricant containing the additive.

[0040] Figure 2(B) shows an example of peeling 181 after the additive has been added to the lubricant 193 and the wind power generation device 20 has been operated for a predetermined period of time. When the bearing 120 is driven after the additive has been added to the lubricant 193, the additive added to the lubricant 193 promotes wear of the edge portion 180B, causing the radius of curvature of the edge portion to increase. Figure 2(B) shows the edge portion 181B and the recess 181A with an increased radius of curvature.

[0041] Furthermore, the cases in which delamination occurs include the following first and second cases. The first case is when delamination is formed due to the progression of micropitting. The second case is when foreign matter enters the bearing 120, an indentation is formed by the foreign matter, and delamination is formed as this indentation progresses.

[0042] Figure 3 is a diagram illustrating micropitting. In the example in Figure 3(A), micropitting 170 that has occurred on the surface 191A of the rolling element 191 is shown. The occurrence of micropitting 170 forms a large number of recesses 170A. Furthermore, protrusions 170B are formed on the edges of the recesses 170A.

[0043] In this embodiment, if it is determined that micro-pitching 170 has occurred, an additive is added to the lubricant 193 by worker B or the like. The additive is intended to reduce the height of the protrusions (for example, protrusions 170B).

[0044] Figure 3(B) shows an example of micropitting 171 after the additive has been added to the lubricant 193 and the wind power generation device 20 has been operated for a predetermined period. When the bearing 120 is driven after the additive has been added to the lubricant 193, the additive added to the lubricant 193 promotes wear of the protrusions 170B, and the height of the protrusions 170B is reduced. Figure 3(B) shows these reduced protrusions 171B. Figure 3(B) also shows the recesses 171A after the additive has been added to the lubricant 193. In this way, the addition of the additive to the lubricant 193 promotes the settling of the surface roughness of the rolling elements 191. This promotion of settling occurs not only for the protrusions formed by the occurrence of micropitting, but also for the surface roughness formed by machining when the first member is manufactured. Furthermore, the same promotion of settling occurs for the surface roughness of the second member that comes into contact with the first member. The first member is, for example, either the rolling element 191 or the raceway wheel 192, and the second member is the other of the rolling element 191 and the raceway wheel 192.

[0045] Furthermore, the process of adding additives to the lubricant 193 includes not only the process of adding additives to the existing lubricant 193 of the bearing 120, but also the process of replacing the lubricant 193 with a lubricant that contains additives.

[0046] [Method for Estimating Delamination] Next, the method for estimating the timing of delamination using the estimation device 100 will be explained. In the following, the period from when the wind power generation equipment 20 starts operation until the estimated timing of delamination will also be referred to as the "delamination life." Similarly, the period from when the wind power generation equipment 20 starts operation until the estimated timing of micropitting will also be referred to as the "micropitting remaining life." Note that if no damage has occurred to the estimation device 100, the timing of damage can be estimated, and "estimating the timing of damage" includes "estimating that damage will occur in the future."

[0047] In this embodiment, the estimation device 100 estimates the future timing of delamination using the calculated value of the modified rated life L of the bearing 120 (rolling bearing) in accordance with ISO 281 (2007). The bearing 120 has a basic dynamic load rating. ISO 281 (2007) specifies a method for calculating the life (basic rated life) when used under ideal operating conditions, based on this basic dynamic load rating and the load applied to the bearing. The "rated life" in this disclosure corresponds to this basic rated life. Furthermore, ISO 281 (2007) specifies a method for calculating the life (modified rated life) that takes operating conditions into account by multiplying the basic rated life by a coefficient that takes into account life variations due to operating conditions. Thus, the modified rated life is the life calculated from the basic rated life.

[0048] The modified rated life L is calculated using the following formula (1). Note that the notation of coefficients and other terms in the following explanation differs from the notation specified in ISO 281 (2007) for convenience.

[0049] L = a1 * a2 * Lx (1) where a1 on the right side of equation (1) is the reliability coefficient, which will be explained in Figure 4 below. a2 on the right side of equation (1) is calculated by equation (6) below. Lx on the right side of equation (1) is the rated life as described above. If bearing 120 is a ball bearing, the rated life is specified by equation (2). If bearing 120 is a roller bearing, the rated life is specified by equation (3).

[0050] Lx = (C / P) ３ (2) Lx=(C / P) １０／３ (3) In equations (2) and (3), C is the basic same rated load (N) and is specified for each type of bearing. For example, if bearing 120 is a radial bearing, the basic same rated load C is Cr. If bearing 120 is a thrust bearing, the basic same rated load C is Ca.

[0051] Furthermore, P in equations (2) and (3) is the equivalent dynamic load (N), which is a value calculated from the equivalent dynamic load calculated from the radial load and the axial load. For example, if bearing 120 is a radial bearing, the equivalent dynamic load P is the equivalent dynamic radial load Pr. If bearing 120 is a thrust bearing, the equivalent dynamic load P is the equivalent dynamic axial load Pa.

[0052] Furthermore, the basic rated life may also be expressed in hours by the following equation (4): L' = (10 ６ / 60n)・L (4) However, L on the right side of equation (4) is the basic rated life as described above, and n is the rotational speed (min －１ )

[0053] The dynamic equivalent load P of the bearing 120 may vary depending on the wind conditions at the installation site of the wind power generation device 20. Therefore, the dynamic equivalent load P is estimated from a relational equation that shows the relationship between P and the rotational speed of the main shaft of the bearing 120. If such a relational equation does not exist, the dynamic equivalent load P used is the maximum load that can occur within the required lifespan of the wind power generation device 20, or the dynamic equivalent load that is most likely to occur within the required lifespan. The required lifespan is the operating period required for the wind power generation device 20, and is a predetermined period.

[0054] Furthermore, a1 in equation (1) is a coefficient (reliability coefficient) that indicates the reliability of the estimated peeling lifetime. Figure 4 shows a part of the reliability coefficient a1. Figure 4 shows an example of the reliability coefficient when the reliability is 90% or higher.

[0055] In the example in Figure 4, the reliability coefficient a1 decreases as the reliability of the peeling life increases. In other words, the lower the reliability of the peeling life calculated by equation (1) above, the longer the modified rated life calculated by equation (1). As will be described later, the longer the modified rated life, the longer the calculated peeling life. In other words, the lower the reliability, the longer the calculated peeling life.

[0056] In the example in Figure 4, a reliability of 90% means that the reliability of the estimated delamination life is 90%, and the reliability coefficient a1 is a coefficient that represents how much the life increases or decreases relative to the basic rated life when the reliability is not 90%. For example, in the example in Figure 4, if the reliability is 90%, the reliability coefficient a1 will be "1".

[0057] Furthermore, the confidence coefficient a1 when the confidence level is less than 90% can be calculated using the following formula (5).

[0058]

[0059] (5) However, in equation (5), n is 100 - confidence level. For example, if the confidence level is 80%, then n = 20. Also, e is the Weibull slope. If bearing 120 is a ball bearing, then e is "10 / 9". If bearing 120 is a roller bearing, then e is "9 / 8".

[0060] Furthermore, a2 in equation (1) above is a correction coefficient. This correction coefficient is a coefficient that reflects the lubrication conditions, the presence of foreign matter (sand and dust or wear particles from machine parts), or the interaction of these influencing factors for the peeling life of the bearing 120. a2 is calculated by the function shown in equation (6) below.

[0061]

[0062] (6) Here, Cu in equation (6) is the fatigue limit load, which is the load at which a stress equivalent to the fatigue limit of the material occurs at the maximum load contact point of the raceway of the bearing 120. Cu is specified according to the type of bearing. e in equation (6) is the contamination coefficient. The contamination coefficient e is explained here. The contamination coefficient e is a value that indicates the degree of cleanliness of the bearing 120, and the higher the contamination coefficient e, the cleaner the bearing 120 is. The contamination coefficient e is a coefficient in accordance with ISO 281 (2007). Furthermore, the contamination coefficient e is a coefficient based on the reduction in the life of the bearing 120 due to indentations of foreign matter (contamination particles, etc.) mixed in the lubricant 193 of the bearing 120.

[0063] For example, foreign matter (e.g., hard contaminant particles) mixed into the lubricant 193 may form indentations on the surface of the bearing 120 (the raceway surface or rolling surface in Figure 2 or Figure 3). The contamination coefficient e reflects the reduction in delamination life due to the presence of these indentations. The value of the contamination coefficient e can be determined by various methods.

[0064] Figure 5 is a diagram illustrating the contamination coefficient e. In the example in Figure 5, the contamination level based on the contamination coefficient e is divided into seven levels. Furthermore, in the example in Figure 5, the levels are divided according to the pitch diameter D of the bearing 120. In the example in Figure 5, the levels are divided according to whether the pitch diameter D is 100 mm or more. For example, if the contamination level of a bearing 120 with a pitch diameter D of 100 mm or more is 0.85, then this bearing 120 is judged to have a high degree of cleanliness.

[0065] For example, as described above, worker B transmits inspection data obtained through periodic inspections to the estimation device 100 via worker terminal 70. The manager of the estimation device 100 determines the contamination coefficient e based on the inspection data using the table in Figure 5.

[0066] In addition, the contamination coefficient e when the lubricant is a lubricating oil may be defined, for example, using the filter filtration ratio βx(c) described in ISO 16889. Alternatively, the contamination coefficient e when the lubricant is a lubricating oil may be defined, for example, by referring to the oil contamination codes described in ISO 4406. Diagrams for determining the contamination coefficient e using these methods are specified in ISO 281 (2007).

[0067] Furthermore, in this embodiment, the pollution coefficient e is determined by a method corresponding to the lubrication method of the bearing 120 to be maintained. For example, the bearing 120 incorporated into the gearbox of the wind power generation device 20 often uses lubricating oil as a lubricant. During the periodic inspection of the wind power generation device 20, the pollution degree code specified in ISO 4406 is checked for the lubricating oil of the bearing 120 for the gearbox, and the pollution coefficient e is determined based on the result.

[0068] As an alternative, worker B may determine the value of the contamination coefficient e by visually inspecting the bearing 120. Alternatively, the estimation device 100 may calculate the contamination coefficient e using data transmitted from the collection device 30, the user terminal 50, or the worker terminal 70.

[0069] Furthermore, in equation (6), k is the viscosity ratio of the lubricant. Under favorable lubrication conditions, the raceway surface of the raceway ring 192 and the rolling surface of the rolling element 191 are separated from each other by an oil film. However, if the viscosity of the lubricant 193 is low, this separation becomes insufficient. As a result, contact occurs between protrusions due to surface roughness between the raceway ring and the rolling element. This makes it easier for peeling cracks to occur from the surface (such as surface 191A in Figure 2). The viscosity ratio k is a coefficient that reflects the reduction in bearing peeling life due to this effect, and can be calculated using the following equation (7).

[0070] k = A １．３ (7) The A on the right side of equation (7) is an index representing the separation state of the raceway surface and rolling surface of the bearing 120 by the oil film, and is also called the oil film parameter. The oil film parameter A is calculated by the following equation (8).

[0071] Oil film parameter A = h / {(R ２ +S ２ )} ０．５ (8) Here, the oil film thickness h indicates the oil film thickness formed at the contact portion between the rolling element 191 and the raceway wheel 192. R indicates the root mean square roughness of the contact surface of the rolling element 191 with the raceway wheel 192. S indicates the root mean square roughness of the contact surface of the raceway wheel 192 with the rolling element 191. For R and S, if measured data is available, those values ​​should be used; if there is no measured data, specified values ​​should be used.

[0072] Further, h is calculated by a function H according to the following formula (9). h = H(V, T) (9) Here, the function H on the right side of formula (9) takes as input the rotational speed V of the bearing 120 and the temperature of the lubricant 193. The rotational speed V of the bearing 120 is the rotational speed detected by the speed sensor 41. The temperature of the lubricant 193 uses the bearing temperature detected by the temperature sensor 42. The function H is a function that outputs a larger oil film thickness h as the rotational speed detected by the speed sensor 41 is higher. Also, the function H is a function that outputs a larger oil film thickness h as the temperature detected by the temperature sensor 42 is lower.

[0073] The oil film thickness h required for calculating the viscosity ratio k can be obtained using a general EHL (Elasto-hydrodynamic Lubrication) oil film thickness calculation formula. Examples of EHL oil film thickness calculation formulas include the formula by Dowson et al. for line contact and the formula by Chittenden et al. for point or elliptical contact. Using the formula by Chittenden et al. as an example, h can be obtained from the following formula (10). For the sake of convenience, the notations of coefficients etc. used in formula (10) are made different from the coefficient notations of the actual formula by Chittenden et al. for convenience.

[0074]

[0075] (10) R in formula (10) ｘ and R ｙ are the equivalent curvature radii in the rolling direction and the axial direction respectively, and can be obtained based on the dimensional specifications of the rolling elements and the raceways. E is the equivalent Young's modulus and can be obtained from the Young's moduli of the materials of the rolling elements and the raceways. μ is the average value of the surface speeds of the raceway surface of the raceway and the rolling surface of the rolling element. As the rotational speed detected by the speed sensor 41 is higher, μ becomes larger. Also, W is the rolling element load. η and α are the atmospheric pressure viscosity and the viscosity-pressure coefficient of the lubricant respectively, which are values specific to the lubricant. As the bearing temperature detected by the temperature sensor 42 is lower, α becomes larger. Also, R ｘ 、R ｙ 、E、η are values determined depending on the dimensional specifications, materials of the bearing, and the type of lubricant.

[0076] Figure 6 shows the details of the function of equation (6). In the example in Figure 6, the bearing 120 is defined by whether it is a ball bearing or a roller bearing, and by the viscosity ratio k of the lubricant 193. In the example in Figure 6, when 0.1 ≤ viscosity ratio k < 0.4 and the bearing 120 is a ball bearing, equation A is used as the function of equation (6).

[0077] As described above, the estimation device 100 calculates the corrected rated life using equation (1) with respect to the rotational speed detected by the speed sensor 41 and the bearing temperature detected by the temperature sensor 42. Furthermore, as described above, function H is a function that outputs a larger oil film thickness h as the rotational speed detected by the speed sensor 41 increases. Also, function H is a function that outputs a larger oil film thickness h as the temperature detected by the temperature sensor 42 decreases.

[0078] Figure 7 is a diagram illustrating the method for estimating total fatigue by the estimation device 100. In Figure 7, the range information 121 stored by the estimation device 100 is shown to include the bearing temperature range and the rotational speed range.

[0079] In the example shown in Figure 7, the range ID, bearing temperature range, rotational speed range, modified rated life, operating hours (h), and accumulated fatigue degree related to delamination are specified from left to right. The accumulated fatigue degree corresponds to the "unit fatigue degree" in this disclosure.

[0080] A range ID is an ID assigned to each range. The bearing temperature range is a range relating to the bearing temperature of bearing 120. The bearing temperature range consists of N ranges (where N is an integer of 2 or more). In the example in Figure 7, the bearing temperature range consists of two ranges, that is, N = 2. In the example in Figure 7, one range is, for example, 55 degrees or more and less than 60 degrees. Each of the N ranges corresponds to the "second range" of this disclosure.

[0081] The rotational speed range includes multiple ranges relating to the rotational speed of the bearing 120. In the example of Figure 7, the rotational speed range is a range obtained by further dividing the second range into at least one. The divided range corresponds to the “first range” of this disclosure. In other words, in the range information, each of the multiple second ranges is composed of at least one first range.

[0082] In the example shown in Figure 7, the second range where the bearing temperature is 55 degrees Celsius or higher and less than 60 degrees Celsius is comprised of four first ranges. One of these four first ranges is, for example, the range where the rotational speed is 3 rpm or higher and less than 4 rpm. Also in the example shown in Figure 7, the second range where the bearing temperature is less than 45 degrees Celsius is comprised of one first range. This one first range is the range where the rotational speed is 0 rpm or higher and less than 1 rpm.

[0083] Furthermore, the example in Figure 7 also specifies the period during which the wind power generation device 20 is shut down. In the example in Figure 7, the rotational speed and bearing temperature of the bearing 120 are divided into eight ranges. In the example in Figure 7, each of the eight ranges is assigned a range ID from M1 to M8. Hereafter, the range ID may be referred to as a reference code for the eight ranges. For example, the range with range ID M1 is also called "range M1".

[0084] The modified rated life is calculated for each range by the estimation device 100. Specifically, when predetermined conditions are met, the estimation device 100 obtains values ​​used to calculate the modified rated life (for example, the pollution coefficient e) from the worker terminal 70 or the like. The predetermined conditions are, for example, when the estimation device 100 receives a completion signal indicating that the periodic inspection by worker B has been completed. The estimation device 100 then calculates the modified rated life for each range ID. For example, for the modified rated life of range M1, the estimation device 100 calculates the modified rated life by substituting the median value of the bearing temperature range (57.5), the median value of the rotational speed range (3.5), and other predetermined values ​​necessary for the modified rated life (for example, the pollution coefficient e) into the above formula (1). The "median value of the rotational speed range" corresponds to the "value based on the first physical quantity defined in the first range" in this disclosure.

[0085] In the example shown in Figure 7, "10000" is calculated as the corrected rated life for range M1. The estimation device 100 also calculates the corrected rated life for other ranges. For range M8, the corrected rated life is considered to be infinite.

[0086] The operating time is the time during which the rotational speed and bearing temperature in past operating periods fall within the eight ranges shown in Figure 7. When the estimation device 100 acquires operating data from the collection device 30, it performs the sorting process described later on the operating data in real time. This sorting process defines the operating time shown in Figure 7. The operating time is an example of the "time parameter" in this disclosure. The time parameter may also be the operating time ratio obtained by dividing the operating time by the total operating time.

[0087] Figure 7 shows an example where, out of 1800 hours of operation in the past, 300 hours were determined to be within range M1 (the range where the bearing temperature is between 55°C and 60°C, and the rotational speed is between 3 rpm and 4 rpm).

[0088] The accumulated fatigue level G is the fatigue level related to delamination accumulated by operation within each range. The delamination life in this embodiment can be estimated using the concept of Miner's cumulative damage law (hereinafter referred to as Miner's law). In Miner's law, for example, if the modified rated life L1 is the operating condition in range M1, and the time of operation under this condition is h1, then the fatigue level for the operating period in range M1 is calculated as h1 / L1. The fatigue level is calculated similarly under other operating conditions.

[0089] In other words, the estimation device 100 calculates the fatigue level (accumulated fatigue level G) accumulated by operation within each range. Specifically, for each range ID, the estimation device 100 calculates the accumulated fatigue level G corresponding to the range ID by dividing the operating time corresponding to the range ID by the modified rated life corresponding to the range ID.

[0090] For example, the estimation device 100 calculates 0.03 (accumulated fatigue level for range M1) for range M1 by dividing 300 (operating time) by 10000 (modified rated life). The estimation device 100 also calculates the accumulated fatigue level for other ranges. The estimation device 100 then calculates the total fatigue level by summing the accumulated fatigue levels for all range IDs. The total fatigue level corresponds to "fatigue level" in this disclosure.

[0091] The bearing 120 included in the wind power generation device 20 operates under conditions that change depending on the wind conditions. Taking this change into consideration, the estimation device 100 of this embodiment calculates the modified rated life L for bearing 120 delamination under specific rotational speed and bearing temperature conditions (range M1 to M8). Therefore, in such cases, the estimation device 100 can calculate the accumulated fatigue G and total fatigue Gx corresponding to the time the bearing was operated under the changeable operating conditions, which determine the life until the final bearing delamination occurs.

[0092] Furthermore, the estimation device 100 calculates the total fatigue Gx accumulated in the bearing 120 during past operation (1800 hours in the example of Figure 7) using the following formula (11).

[0093]

[0094] (11) Here, r on the right-hand side of equation (11) is a variable that indicates the range ID, and R is the number of ranges. In the example in Figure 7, R is 8. Also, hr indicates the operating time when the range ID is r, and Lr indicates the operating time when the range ID is r. In the example in Figure 7, the estimation device 100 uses the above equation (11) to calculate "0.206" as the total fatigue level Gx.

[0095] Furthermore, Minor's rule assumes that delamination occurs when the total fatigue level Gx reaches a predetermined value. In this embodiment, the predetermined value is "1". If the total fatigue level Gx is greater than 1, the estimation device 100 determines that delamination has already occurred.

[0096] On the other hand, if the total fatigue level Gx is less than 1, the estimation device 100 determines that delamination has not occurred. In the example in Figure 7, the total fatigue level is "0.206", and the estimation device 100 determines that delamination has not occurred at the time this "0.206" is calculated. When the estimation device 100 makes this determination, it assumes that even after the total fatigue level is calculated, the wind power generation device 20 will continue to operate in the same manner as its past operation (1800 hours). The estimation device 100 then estimates the delamination life (the timing of delamination occurrence) using the following equation (12).

[0097] Peeling life = (Predetermined value / Total fatigue) × Total operating time (12) The total fatigue is "0.206", the predetermined value is "1", and the total operating time in the past is 1800h. Therefore, using the above formula (12), the peeling life is calculated to be approximately 8730h. In other words, the estimation device 100 estimates that the time when peeling occurs is approximately 8730h after the wind power generation device 20 has started operation.

[0098] Furthermore, the estimation device 100 can also estimate micropitting in the same way as delamination. In other words, the estimation device 100 can calculate the remaining lifespan of the bearing that is prone to micropitting. Therefore, the estimation device 100 can estimate whether micropitting has already occurred in the bearing 120, and even if micropitting has not occurred, it can estimate when micropitting will occur.

[0099] [Functional Block Diagram of Estimation Device 100] Figure 8 is a functional block diagram of the estimation device 100. The estimation device 100 comprises an acquisition unit 112, a processing unit 114, and a storage unit 116. The acquisition unit 112 corresponds to the interface 106 described above. The processing unit 114 corresponds to the CPU 102 described above and the "control device" of this disclosure. The storage unit 116 corresponds to the memory 104 described above.

[0100] The acquisition unit 112 of the estimation device 100 acquires the bearing ID and the aforementioned operating data from the collection device 30. The acquisition unit 112 also acquires the bearing ID and the aforementioned inspection data from the worker terminal 70. The operating data and inspection data acquired by the acquisition unit 112 are output to the processing unit 114.

[0101] The processing unit 114 stores the operating data and inspection data acquired by the acquisition unit 112 as past damage data 127. The past damage data 127 includes, for example, a contamination coefficient e. The processing unit 114 stores the past damage data 127 for each bearing ID.

[0102] The memory unit 116 also stores range information 121, a delamination life function 131, and a micropitching life function 132. The range information 121 includes the range ID, bearing temperature range, and rotational speed range shown in Figure 7. The delamination life function 131 is, for example, an equation for calculating the total fatigue degree Gx related to delamination, such as equation (11) above.

[0103] Furthermore, the micropitching life function 132 is, for example, an equation for calculating the total fatigue degree related to micropitching, and is disclosed, for example, in Japanese Patent Application No. 2023-192977, which is an application filed by the same applicant.

[0104] The processing unit 114 uses past damage data 127 (for example, the most recently transmitted contamination coefficient e) and the delamination lifetime function 131 to determine whether delamination has already occurred. If the processing unit 114 determines that delamination has not occurred, it estimates the future timing of delamination (delamination lifetime).

[0105] The processing unit 114 uses past damage data 127 (for example, the most recently transmitted contamination coefficient e) and the micropitching lifetime function 132 to determine whether or not micropitching has already occurred. If the processing unit 114 determines that micropitching has not occurred, it estimates the future timing of micropitching (remaining micropitching lifetime).

[0106] Furthermore, the processing unit 114 generates recommended image data indicating recommended maintenance procedures to extend the lifespan of the bearing 120, according to the estimation results. The processing unit 114 then transmits the image data to a predetermined terminal (user terminal 50 or worker terminal 70).

[0107] [Flowchart] Figures 9 to 11 are flowcharts showing the main processes of the estimation device 100. Worker B performs a periodic inspection and sends a message to the worker terminal 70 indicating that the periodic inspection is complete. The worker terminal 70 sends a completion signal to the estimation device 100 indicating that the inspection is complete. When the estimation device 100 receives this completion signal, it starts the process shown in this flowchart.

[0108] First, in step S2, the estimation device 100 calculates the modified rated life for each range using the pollution coefficient e and the first equation. Here, the first equation is the equation when the confidence coefficient a1 in equation (1) is the first value (for example, 90%). Furthermore, in step S2, the estimation device 100 identifies the operating time for each range of the range information 121 described in Figure 7.

[0109] Next, in step S4, the estimation device 100 calculates the delamination life using equation (12). Next, in step S6, the estimation device 100 determines whether delamination has already occurred based on the total fatigue degree Gx. For example, if the total fatigue degree Gx is 1 or more, the estimation device 100 determines that delamination has already occurred. If delamination has already occurred (YES in step S6), in step S8, the estimation device 100 sends recommended image data recommending controlled operation of the wind power generation device 20 to the user terminal 50. Controlled operation is an operation to reduce the rotational speed of the rotating body of the bearing 120, for example, an operation to reduce the rotational speed of the main shaft of the wind power generation device 20. By performing such controlled operation, the number of loads per unit time that cause delamination can be reduced, and thus the expansion of delamination can be suppressed.

[0110] Furthermore, in step S8, the estimation device 100 transmits recommended image data to the operator terminal 70 recommending the addition of an additive to the lubricant 193. Therefore, the estimation device 100 can recommend that the radius of curvature of the edge portion 180B created by peeling can be increased by adding the additive.

[0111] On the other hand, if the result in step S6 is NO, in step S10 the estimation device 100 determines whether or not delamination will occur within the required lifespan of the wind power generation device 20 from the present time. The estimation device 100 determines whether or not the delamination lifespan is longer than the required operating period (required lifespan) required for the wind power generation device 20. If the delamination lifespan is equal to or greater than the required lifespan, the estimation device 100 determines that delamination will not occur within the required lifespan of the wind power generation device 20 (NO in step S10). On the other hand, if the delamination lifespan is less than the required lifespan, the estimation device 100 determines that delamination will occur within the required lifespan of the wind power generation device 20 (YES in step S10).

[0112] If NO is determined in step S10, in step S12, the estimation device 100 sends recommended image data recommending continued operation of the wind power generation device 20 to the user terminal 50. Then the process ends.

[0113] On the other hand, if the answer is YES in step S10, the process proceeds to step S14. In step S14, the estimation device 100 determines whether or not user A has input indicating a desire to extend the lifespan of the wind power generation equipment 20. In step S10, for example, the estimation device 100 sends inquiry image data to the user terminal 50, which contains a message asking user A whether or not they wish to extend the lifespan of the wind power generation equipment 20. User A then inputs a response into the user terminal 50 displaying the inquiry image. This response can be either "I wish to extend the lifespan of the wind power generation equipment 20" or "I do not wish to extend the lifespan of the wind power generation equipment 20".

[0114] The user terminal 50 transmits the response image data showing the answer to the estimation device 100. Based on the content of this response image, the estimation device 100 performs the process in step S14. If it is determined to be NO in step S14, the need for maintenance (life extension treatment) for worker B is low, and the process proceeds to step S12.

[0115] On the other hand, if the result in step S14 is YES, in step S16 the estimation device 100 determines whether or not peeling will occur before the next periodic inspection. The period from when the process in step S16 is performed until the next periodic inspection is performed is also referred to as the "period until the next inspection".

[0116] In step S16, the estimation device 100 compares the sum of the period until the next inspection and the total operating time with the peeling life. If the peeling life is less than the sum of the period until the next inspection and the total operating time, the estimation device 100 determines that peeling will occur before the next periodic inspection (YES in step S16). In this case, it is estimated that the bearing 120 is deteriorating. The process then proceeds to step S18.

[0117] On the other hand, if the peeling life is longer than the period until the next inspection (NO in step S16), the estimation device 100 determines that peeling will not occur until the next periodic inspection. Then, the process proceeds to step S25 in Figure 10.

[0118] In step S18, the estimation device 100 determines whether the contamination coefficient e most recently obtained from the worker terminal 70 is less than a predetermined threshold. For example, if the pitch diameter D is 100 mm or more, the threshold is set to 0.6. If the pitch diameter D is less than 100 mm, the threshold is set to 0.5.

[0119] If the contamination coefficient e is less than the threshold (YES in step S18), that is, if the bearing 120 is contaminated, the process proceeds to step S20. When it is determined to be YES in step S18, it is assumed that the peeling determined to be YES in step S10 is caused by contamination by foreign matter mixed into the lubricant 193 of the bearing 120. In this embodiment, it is assumed that an indentation has been formed by the foreign matter, and in step S20, the estimation device 100 sends recommended image data to the operator terminal 70 recommending the addition of an additive to the lubricant 193 to reduce the height of the protrusion formed on the edge of the indentation. The process then ends.

[0120] On the other hand, if NO is determined in step S18, that is, if the bearing 120 is not contaminated, then in step S22, the estimation device 100 determines whether or not micropitting has occurred. In step S22, the estimation device 100 determines whether or not micropitting has already occurred based on the total fatigue degree related to the remaining life of micropitting. For example, if the total fatigue degree of micropitting is 1 or more, the estimation device 100 determines that micropitting has already occurred (YES in step S22). In this case, the process proceeds to step S20. In step S20, the recommended additive is added to the lubricant 193, which reduces the protrusions 170B caused by micropitting 171 (see Figure 3), thereby suppressing the expansion of micropitting.

[0121] On the other hand, in step S22, if the total fatigue level of micropitting is less than 1, the estimation device 100 determines that micropitting has not occurred (NO in step S22). The determination of NO in step S22 suggests that the reason for the YES determination in step S16 was that the wind turbine 20 remained under a high dynamic equivalent load for a long period of time due to wind conditions. This condition is difficult to resolve with maintenance of the bearing 120. Therefore, in step S24, the estimation device 100 sends recommended image data to the user terminal 50 recommending controlled operation of the wind turbine 20. By executing controlled operation of the wind turbine 20, the number of loads applied to the bearing 120 per unit time can be reduced, thus extending the life of the bearing 120. The process then ends.

[0122] Furthermore, if NO is determined in step S16, in step S25 of Figure 10, the estimation device 100 calculates the peeling life using the second formula and calculates the corrected rated life based on this peeling life. Here, the second formula is one in which a second value (for example, 80%) with a lower reliability coefficient than the first formula (see step S4) is adopted. In other words, even if the values ​​input to the first and second formulas (bearing temperature, rotational speed, etc.) are the same, the peeling life calculated by the second formula is longer than the peeling life calculated by the first formula. Furthermore, in step S25, the estimation device 100 calculates the peeling life based on the corrected rated life calculated by the second formula.

[0123] Next, in step S26, the estimation device 100 determines whether or not delamination will occur within the required lifespan of the wind power generation device 20, based on the delamination lifespan calculated in step S25. This determination is the same as the method described in step S10. If the determination in step S26 is NO, that is, if delamination will occur within the required lifespan according to the delamination lifespan calculated by the first formula (YES in step S10), but delamination will not occur within the required lifespan according to the delamination lifespan calculated by the second formula (NO in step S26), the process proceeds to step S28.

[0124] If NO is determined in step S26, there is a low probability (80%) that delamination will occur within the required lifespan as determined in step S26, meaning that delamination may not occur within the required lifespan. Therefore, in step S28, the estimation device 100 sends recommended image data to the user terminal 50, recommending further observation.

[0125] Furthermore, if the answer is YES in step S26, that is, if it is determined that peeling will occur within the required lifespan regardless of whether the peeling lifespan calculated by the first formula or the peeling lifespan calculated by the second formula is used, the process proceeds to step S30.

[0126] In step S30, similar to step S18, it is determined whether the contamination coefficient e is less than a predetermined threshold. If the contamination coefficient e is less than the threshold (YES in step S30), that is, if the bearing 120 is contaminated, the process proceeds to step S32. When it is determined to be YES in step S30, it is assumed that the cause determined to be YES in step S26 is the deterioration of the lubricating oil.

[0127] Therefore, in this embodiment, from step S32 onward, a process relating to the maintenance of at least one of the drive unit and the lubricant 193 is performed. Maintenance of the drive unit includes flushing the drive unit. Flushing means, for example, at least one of washing and removal.

[0128] Here, flushing the drive unit means, for example, at least one of cleaning the drive unit and removing foreign matter from the drive unit. Flushing means, for example, removing dirt and foreign matter from the drive unit. Flushing may also include the process of replacing the lubricant in the bearings contained in the drive unit with a new lubricant.

[0129] In step S32, the estimation device 100 determines whether the lubricant 193 of the bearing 120 to be inspected has been maintained in the past, using past damage data 127. The past damage data 127 includes information indicating whether the lubricant 193 has been maintained in the past.

[0130] If NO is determined in step S32, that is, if it is assumed that the reason the contamination coefficient e is lower than the threshold is due to the deterioration of the lubricant 193, the process proceeds to step S34. In step S34, the estimation device 100 transmits the following recommended image data to the operator terminal 70. This recommended image is an image that indicates that the presence or absence of indentations should be checked, and if indentations are found, an additive should be added to the lubricant 193, and if there are no indentations, maintenance of the lubricant should be performed.

[0131] On the other hand, if the result in step S32 is YES, then in step S36, the estimation device 100 determines, based on past damage data 127, whether the content of the bearing material in the lubricant 193 is increasing. In the example in Figure 10, the material of the bearing 120 is iron. The past damage data 127 includes the iron content of the lubricant 193 obtained from at least two past periodic inspections. If the result in step S36 is YES, the process proceeds to step S20. If the result in step S36 is YES, it is assumed that the contamination coefficient e has decreased due to wear particles (for example, iron) discharged from parts of the bearing 120 (YES in step S30). It is then assumed that indentations have been formed or will be formed in the future by these wear particles. Therefore, in step S20, the estimation device 100 transmits the image data from step S20 in order to reduce the protrusions caused by these indentations.

[0132] Furthermore, if NO is determined in step S36, it is assumed that the contamination coefficient has decreased due to foreign matter entering the bearing 120, rather than the wear particles mentioned above (YES in step S30). Therefore, in step S38, the estimation device 100 transmits the following recommended image data to the operator terminal 70. This recommended image is an image indicating that the presence or absence of indentations on the bearing 120 should be checked, and if indentations are found, an additive should be added to the lubricant 193; if there are no indentations, maintenance of the lubricant should be performed. This recommended image also indicates that if there is an abnormality in the foreign matter blocking mechanism of the bearing 120, repairs should be made to the foreign matter blocking mechanism. Then the process is completed. The foreign matter blocking mechanism is, for example, the seal of the bearing 120 or the oil filter of the speed increaser.

[0133] Furthermore, if NO is determined in step S30, in step S40 of Figure 11, the estimation device 100 determines whether or not micropitching has already occurred. The process in step S40 is the same as in step S22.

[0134] If the answer is YES in step S40, in step S42, the estimation device 100 transmits the following recommended image data to the operator terminal 70. This recommended image indicates that the presence or absence of micropitting should be checked during the next periodic inspection, and if micropitting is present, maintenance should be performed by adding an additive to the lubricant. The process then ends.

[0135] If the result in step S40 is NO, then in step S44 the estimation device 100 determines whether or not micro-pitching will occur within the required lifespan of the bearing 120. For example, it determines whether or not the micro-pitching lifespan is longer than the required lifespan of the wind power generation device 20. If the micro-pitching lifespan is longer than or equal to the required lifespan, the estimation device 100 determines that micro-pitching will not occur within the required lifespan of the wind power generation device 20 (NO in step S44). On the other hand, if the micro-pitching lifespan is shorter than the required lifespan, the estimation device 100 determines that micro-pitching will occur within the required lifespan of the wind power generation device 20 (YES in step S44).

[0136] If the answer in step S44 is YES, then in step S46, the estimation device 100 determines whether the degree of deterioration of the lubricant 193 has increased based on past damage data 127. Here, "the degree of deterioration of the lubricant 193 has increased" includes at least one of the following: a decrease in the kinematic viscosity of the lubricant 193, and an increase in the water content of the lubricant 193.

[0137] If the determination in step S46 is YES, in step S48, the estimation device 100 sends data of a recommendation image to the operator terminal 70 recommending that the lubricant 193 be replaced with a new lubricant with a higher kinematic viscosity than the lubricant 193. Then the process ends.

[0138] Furthermore, if the result is NO in step S44 or NO in step S46, the process proceeds to step S28.

[0139] [Condition] As shown in Figures 9 to 11, the estimation device 100 transmits image data to the operator terminal 70 or the like. In this embodiment, the recommended image data includes the condition of the bearing 120. This is a parameter indicating the condition of the bearing 120. Figure 12 is a diagram illustrating an example of the condition.

[0140] In the example shown in Figure 12, as indicated in the remarks column, a soundness level of 1 is the healthiest, and a soundness level of 14 is the unhealthiest. For example, if the estimation device 100 performs the process in step S12 after determining NO in step S10, it will determine that the soundness level of the bearing 120 is "1". The soundness level table shown in Figure 12 is stored in the storage unit 116. The estimation device 100 refers to this soundness level table to determine the soundness level.

[0141] [Recommended Images] Next, we will explain the recommended images displayed by the user terminal 50 or the worker terminal 70. The recommended images include images that recommend maintenance of the wind power generation equipment 20 to user A or worker B.

[0142] Figure 13 is a diagram illustrating the image 71 displayed by the worker terminal 70. Image 71 is an example of an image displayed based on the image data transmitted in the processing of step S8. Image 71 includes an estimated image 71A showing the estimation result of the estimation device 100, a recommended image 71B showing the processing recommended to worker B, and a health image 71C showing the health of the bearing 120.

[0143] In the example in Figure 13, the estimated image 71A shows that delamination has already occurred. The recommended image 71B is an image to recommend to worker B that the additive be added to the lubricant 193. In the soundness image 71C, "14" is displayed as the soundness level.

[0144] Figure 14 is a diagram illustrating the image 72 displayed by the worker terminal 70. Image 72 is an example of an image displayed based on the image data transmitted in step S34.

[0145] Image 72 includes an estimated image 72A, a recommended image 72B, a health assessment image 72C, and a time-of-onset image 72D indicating the timing of the peeling.

[0146] In the example in Figure 14, the estimated image 72A is an image that shows delamination will occur in the future. The recommendation image 72B is an image that recommends worker B to inspect for the presence or absence of indentations, add additives to the lubricant 193 if indentations are found, and perform lubricant maintenance if no indentations are found. The soundness image 72C shows that the soundness is "9" if indentations are found, and "6" if no indentations are found. The timing image 72D shows AA as the timing of the future occurrence of delamination.

[0147] Figure 15 is a diagram illustrating the image 73 displayed by the worker terminal 70. Image 73 is an example of an image displayed based on the image data transmitted in the processing of step S20 after determining YES in step S22.

[0148] In the example in Figure 15, the estimated image 73A shows that micropitching has already occurred. The recommended image 73B is an image to recommend that worker B add an additive to the lubricant 193. In the soundness image 73C, the soundness level is displayed as "11".

[0149] Figure 16 is a diagram illustrating the image 74 displayed by the operator terminal 70. Image 74 is an example of an image displayed based on the image data transmitted in step S48.

[0150] In the example in Figure 16, the estimated image 74A is an image indicating that micropitting will occur in the future. The recommended image 74B is an image recommending that lubricant 193 be replaced with a new lubricant with a higher kinematic viscosity than lubricant 193. In the soundness image 74C, "7" is displayed as the soundness level. In the timing image 74D, BB is displayed as the timing of the future occurrence of micropitting.

[0151] Figure 17 is a diagram illustrating the image 75 displayed by the user terminal 50. Image 75 is an example of an image displayed based on the image data transmitted in step S8. In the example in Figure 17, the estimated image 75A is an image indicating that delamination has already occurred. The recommended image 75B is an image to recommend that user A control the operation of the wind power generation equipment. In the health status image 75C, "14" is displayed as the health status.

[0152] [Processing flow of User A or Worker B] Figure 18 is a flowchart showing the processing performed by Worker B when the estimation device 100 determines that peeling has already occurred. For example, Worker B, who has viewed the image 71 in Figure 13, performs the processing shown in Figure 18. In step S112, Worker B adds an additive to the lubricant 193.

[0153] Figure 19 is a flowchart showing the actions taken by worker B when the estimation device 100 determines that delamination will occur in the future. For example, worker B, after viewing image 72 in Figure 14, performs the actions shown in Figure 19. In step S122, worker B determines whether or not there is an indentation on the bearing 120. If there is an indentation (YES in step S122), in step S124, worker B adds an additive to the lubricant 193. On the other hand, if there is no indentation (NO in step S122), in step S126, worker B performs flushing of the drive unit.

[0154] Figure 20 is a flowchart showing the process performed by worker B when the estimation device 100 determines that micropitching has already occurred. For example, worker B, after viewing image 73 in Figure 15, performs the process shown in Figure 20. In step S132, worker B adds an additive to the lubricant 193.

[0155] Figure 21 is a flowchart showing the actions taken by worker B when the estimation device 100 determines that micropitting will occur in the future. For example, worker B, after viewing image 74 in Figure 16, performs the actions shown in Figure 21. In step S142, worker B replaces lubricant 193 with a new lubricant that has a higher kinematic viscosity than lubricant 193. As a modification of Figure 21, in step S142, worker B may perform either lubricant replacement or the addition of an additive to the lubricant.

[0156] Figure 22 is a flowchart showing the process of user A when the estimation device 100 determines that delamination has already occurred. For example, user A, who has viewed image 75 in Figure 17, performs the process shown in Figure 22. In step S152, user A performs a controlled operation of the wind power generation device 20.

[0157] [Summary of the First Embodiment] (1) Generally, when a bearing 120 fails due to reaching the end of its lifespan, worker B needs to replace the bearing 120. However, replacing the bearing 120 incurs significant costs. Furthermore, the bearing 120 (wind turbine 20) experiences downtime during the replacement process. Therefore, it is preferable for worker B to recognize damage to the bearing 120 before it fails due to reaching the end of its lifespan and to perform maintenance on the bearing 120.

[0158] Therefore, as explained in Figure 7 and other figures, the estimation device 100 of this embodiment estimates that delamination of the bearing 120 has already occurred. Furthermore, if the estimation device 100 estimates that delamination of the bearing 120 has not yet occurred, it estimates the future timing of this delamination. Thus, a person who observes the estimation result can recognize the delamination of the bearing 120 before it fails, and thus extend the lifespan of the bearing 120.

[0159] Furthermore, as shown in Figure 7, the estimation device 100 estimates whether delamination has occurred based on the operating time for each of the multiple ranges (ranges M1 to M8) and the modified rated life for each of the multiple ranges. Therefore, even if the operating conditions of the bearing 120 change and the bearing temperature and rotational speed of the bearing 120 change, it is possible to appropriately estimate whether delamination has occurred.

[0160] (2) In the example shown in Figure 7, the range is further subdivided by bearing temperature range and rotational speed range. Therefore, the estimation device 100 can estimate that delamination has occurred based on the operating time for each subdivided range and the modified rated life for each of the multiple ranges. Thus, the estimation accuracy can be improved.

[0161] (3) Furthermore, the pollution coefficient e changes depending on the operating period of the bearing 120. In this embodiment, the estimation device 100 uses the changing pollution coefficient e to calculate the corrected rated life for each of several ranges. Thus, the estimation device 100 can perform estimations according to the operating period of the bearing 120.

[0162] (4) The estimation device 100 also calculates the accumulated fatigue level for each of the multiple ranges by dividing the operating time in each range by the modified rated life associated with that range. The estimation device 100 then estimates the total accumulated fatigue level for the multiple ranges as the fatigue level. Therefore, even if the operating conditions of the bearing 120 change and the rotational speed and bearing temperature of the bearing 120 change, the estimation device 100 can calculate an appropriate fatigue level.

[0163] (5) Furthermore, as explained in step S6 and elsewhere, the estimation device 100 estimates the time when the fatigue level reaches a predetermined value (in this embodiment, "1") as the time when peeling occurs. Therefore, the estimation device 100 can appropriately estimate the time when peeling occurs.

[0164] (6) Furthermore, as explained in Figure 7 and other figures, the estimation device 100 estimates the peeling life in such a way that the peeling life becomes shorter as the total fatigue level increases. Therefore, the estimation device 100 can appropriately estimate the timing of peeling occurrence.

[0165] (7) The estimation device 100 also displays the estimation result on the user terminal 50 or the worker terminal 70 (Figures 13 to 17). Therefore, user A or worker B can recognize the estimation result of the estimation device 100.

[0166] (8) The estimation device 100 also determines a recommended treatment for peeling based on the estimation results of the estimation device 100 (see Figures 9 to 11). The estimation device 100 then displays an image indicating the recommended treatment on the user terminal 50 or the worker terminal 70 (Figures 13 to 17). Thus, user A or worker B can recognize the recommended treatment for peeling.

[0167] (9) The estimation device 100 also displays the soundness shown in Figure 12 on the user terminal 50 or the worker terminal 70 (Figures 13 to 17). Thus, user A or worker B can recognize the soundness of the bearing 120.

[0168] (10) When the estimation device 100 estimates that peeling has occurred, it determines that the recommended actions are to add an additive to the lubricant and to suppress the operation of the wind power generation device 20 (see step S8 in Figure 9). Then, as shown in Figure 18 or Figure 22, when this recommended action is performed by user A or worker B, the expansion of peeling can be suppressed.

[0169] (11) If the estimation device 100 estimates that peeling will occur in the future, it determines that the recommended treatment is to add an additive to the lubricant (step S20) or to perform maintenance on the lubricant 193 (steps S34, S38). Then, as shown in Figure 19, when this recommended treatment is performed by worker B, the occurrence of peeling can be suppressed.

[0170] (12) If the estimation device 100 determines that micropitting is occurring, it decides to add an additive to the lubricant 193 (step S42) as a recommended process. Then, as shown in Figure 20, when this recommended process is carried out by operator B, the expansion of micropitting can be suppressed.

[0171] (13) When the estimation device 100 determines when micropitting is about to occur, it decides that the recommended procedure is to replace the lubricant 193 with a new lubricant that has a higher kinematic viscosity than the lubricant 193 (step S48). As shown in Figure 21, when this recommended procedure is performed by operator B, the expansion of micropitting can be suppressed.

[0172] Thus, the process for extending the life of the bearing 120 includes at least one of the following: controlled operation of the wind power generation device 20 (Figure 22), replacement of the lubricant 193 (Figures 19 and 21), flushing of the drive device (Figure 19), and addition of additives to the lubricant 193 (Figures 18 to 20). Therefore, the life of the bearing 120 can be appropriately extended.

[0173] <Second Embodiment> The estimation device 100 of the second embodiment detects the type of damage and the circumstances of damage occurrence by a predetermined method. The predetermined method is, for example, the method described in the first embodiment. As a modification, the estimation device 100 may also detect the type of damage and the circumstances of damage occurrence based on predetermined damage data. The estimation device 100 may, for example, use AI (Artificial Intelligence) to detect the type of damage and the circumstances of damage occurrence based on damage data. Alternatively, worker B or the like may visually detect the type of damage and the circumstances of damage occurrence.

[0174] [Maintenance Method] Figure 23 is a diagram illustrating the maintenance method for the bearing 120 of the second embodiment. Figure 23 shows the type of damage, the circumstances under which the damage occurred, and the maintenance method corresponding to the type of damage and the circumstances under which the damage occurred. In the example of Figure 23, the types of damage shown are micropitting (see Figure 3) and delamination (see Figure 2).

[0175] The circumstances of damage include the following four conditions: Condition 1, Condition 2, Condition 3, and Condition 4. Condition 1 is a situation in which the estimation device 100 has determined that micropitching has already occurred. The situation in which the estimation device 100 has determined that micropitching has already occurred also includes situations in which the estimation device 100 has determined that there is a high probability that micropitching has already occurred.

[0176] The second situation is one in which micropitting is not currently occurring, but the estimation device 100 estimates that micropitting will occur in the future. The third situation is one in which delamination has already occurred, as determined by the estimation device 100. The fourth situation is one in which delamination is not currently occurring, but the estimation device 100 estimates that delamination will occur in the future.

[0177] The estimation device 100 determines, through predetermined calculations, which of the first to fourth conditions the bearing 120 is in. At least two of the first to fourth conditions may occur simultaneously. The estimation device 100 then proposes a maintenance method to user A or worker B that corresponds to the condition.

[0178] If the bearing 120 is in the first condition (where micro-pitting has already occurred), this micro-pitting may develop into large-scale damage such as delamination. Furthermore, delamination may develop into fatal damage to the bearing 120.

[0179] Therefore, the estimation device 100 proposes a maintenance method in which an additive is added to the lubricant 193. When this maintenance method is performed by worker B or the like, the effects of micro-pitching 171 can be reduced (see Figure 3).

[0180] If the bearing 120 is in the second condition (where micro-pitching is not currently occurring, but is expected to occur in the future), then the lubricant 193 may be degraded.

[0181] The deterioration of the lubricant 193 includes at least one of the following: a decrease in the oil film of the lubricant 193, and a decrease in the kinematic viscosity of the lubricant 193.

[0182] Therefore, the estimation device 100 proposes a maintenance method of replacing the lubricant 193 or adding an additive to the lubricant 193. By replacing the lubricant 193, the deterioration of the lubricant 193 is eliminated, and the future occurrence of micro-pitting 171 can be suppressed. Furthermore, by adding an additive to the lubricant 193, the aforementioned surface roughness settling is promoted, thus suppressing the future occurrence of micro-pitting 171.

[0183] If the bearing 120 is in the third condition (where delamination has already occurred), this delamination may develop into a fatal defect in the bearing 120.

[0184] Therefore, the estimation device 100 proposes a maintenance method in which an additive is added to the lubricant 193. This maintenance method, when performed by worker B or the like, can reduce the effects of delamination (see Figure 2). Furthermore, the estimation device 100 proposes controlled operation of the wind power generation device to user A. Controlled operation is an operation to reduce the rotational speed of the rotating body of the bearing 120 (for example, the rotating shaft), for example, an operation to reduce the rotational speed of the main shaft of the wind power generation device 20. By performing such controlled operation, the number of times the load is applied to the delamination-causing part can be reduced, thereby suppressing the expansion of delamination.

[0185] Furthermore, if the bearing 120 is in the third state, the estimation device 100 suggests that user A monitor the progression of the delamination. This monitoring allows user A to arrange for a replacement bearing before the delamination progresses to the point where the wind turbine 20 becomes inoperable. Therefore, the downtime of the wind turbine can be minimized by replacing the bearing. The method by which user A understands the progression of the delamination includes monitoring of increased behavior such as vibration by the estimation device 100, user A, or the manager of the estimation device 100.

[0186] The following describes the case where the bearing 120 is in the fourth condition (currently, no delamination has occurred, but it is estimated that delamination will occur in the future). In this case, there is a risk that indentations will be formed in the future due to foreign matter mixed in the lubricant, and that delamination will be formed from these indentations (hereinafter also referred to as the "first risk"). Therefore, when the bearing 120 is in the fourth condition, the estimation device 100 proposes a maintenance method of flushing the drive unit. By performing this maintenance method (flushing) by worker B or the like, foreign matter mixed in the drive unit and foreign matter mixed in the lubricant can be removed, thereby suppressing the formation of indentations in the future, and as a result, the first risk can be reduced.

[0187] However, if the bearing 120 is in the fourth condition, an indentation has already been formed, and there is a risk that delamination may occur from this indentation in the future (hereinafter also referred to as the "second risk"). Therefore, the estimation device 100 also proposes maintenance by adding an additive to the lubricant 193. By adding an additive to the lubricant 193, protrusions that have formed on the edges of the already formed indentation can be suppressed. Therefore, the progression of delamination from this indentation can be suppressed, and as a result, the second risk can also be reduced.

[0188] In other words, if the condition of the bearing 120 is the fourth condition, the drive unit is flushed, and an additive is added to the lubricant after flushing the drive unit. This reduces both the first and second risks.

[0189] [Identification of the Situation] Next, the method for identifying the first to fourth situations by the estimation device 100 will be explained. Figure 24 is a diagram illustrating the method for identifying the first to fourth situations. The estimation device 100 identifies which of the first to fourth situations the bearing 120 is in by determining whether or not the first to eighth conditions are met. The estimation device 100 determines whether or not the first to eighth conditions are met based on the above damage data (operation data and inspection data).

[0190] Furthermore, conditions 1 through 3 are the conditions for the occurrence of micropitting. Conditions 4, 5, and 7 are the conditions for the absence of delamination. Condition 6 is a condition for the occurrence of delamination.

[0191] The first condition is that, during the past operating period of the wind power generation equipment, the oil film parameter A relating to the oil film of the lubricant 193 fell below the threshold at least once. Here, the oil film parameter A is calculated, for example, by the following formula.

[0192] Oil film parameter A = h / {(R ２ +S ２ )} ０．５ (1) Here, the oil film thickness h represents the oil film thickness formed at the contact portion between the rolling element 191 and the raceway wheel 192. R represents the root mean square roughness of the contact surface between the rolling element 191 and the raceway wheel 192. S represents the root mean square roughness of the contact surface between the raceway wheel 192 and the rolling element 191. The threshold is a predetermined value, for example, the threshold is 1.2.

[0193] The second condition is that the content of the bearing material 120 in the lubricant 193 is increasing. The material of the bearing 120 is, for example, iron. Therefore, in the second condition in Figure 24, the material is described as iron. In this disclosure, an increasing trend means that the slope of the values ​​obtained from two or more of the above-mentioned periodic maintenance in the past is positive. In this disclosure, a decreasing trend means that the slope of the values ​​obtained from two or more of the above-mentioned periodic maintenance in the past is negative.

[0194] The third condition is that the kinematic viscosity of the lubricant 193 is decreasing. A decreasing kinematic viscosity means that the kinematic viscosity of the lubricant 193 obtained from the above-mentioned periodic maintenance performed two or more times in the past is decreasing.

[0195] The fourth condition is that no delamination has occurred on the bearing 120. The fifth condition is that the contamination coefficient e in Figure 5 described above is greater than the first predetermined value.

[0196] Furthermore, the first predetermined value of the fifth condition may be determined by referring to past field data. If there is no data that can be referred in this way, it may be determined based on the table in Figure 5. In this embodiment, the first predetermined value for bearings 120 in which the pitch diameter D of the rolling elements is less than 100 mm is set to 0.5. The first predetermined value for bearings 120 in which the pitch diameter D of the rolling elements is 100 mm or more is set to 0.6.

[0197] The sixth condition is that, based on past operating data, the pollution coefficient e has been below the second predetermined value, or that the pollution coefficient e is showing a decreasing trend. The second predetermined value is a value smaller than the first predetermined value. For example, the second predetermined value for a bearing 120 with a rolling element pitch diameter D of less than 100 mm is set to 0.3. The second predetermined value for a bearing 120 with a rolling element pitch diameter D of 100 mm or more is set to 0.4.

[0198] The seventh condition is the same as the fourth condition. For the eighth condition, for example, suppose worker B detects delamination visually using an endoscope or the like during regular maintenance. Worker B inputs information indicating that the delamination has been detected into worker terminal 70. Worker terminal 70 transmits information indicating that the delamination has been detected to estimation device 100. The eighth condition is that estimation device 100 acquires information indicating that the delamination has been detected.

[0199] As shown in Figure 24, the estimation device 100 determines that micropitting is occurring or will occur if the occurrence conditions and non-occurrence conditions are met. The reason for this is that when the occurrence conditions are met, there is a high probability that micropitting is occurring, but when the non-occurrence conditions are met, there is a low probability that delamination is occurring. Therefore, the estimation device 100 does not determine that delamination is occurring, but rather determines that micropitting is occurring or will occur in the future.

[0200] The estimation device 100 determines that micropitching is occurring (first situation) when the first, second, fourth, and fifth conditions are met. The estimation device 100 also determines that micropitching will occur in the future (second situation) when the first, third, and fourth conditions are met.

[0201] The estimation device 100 determines that delamination has occurred (third situation) when the second, sixth, and eighth conditions are met. The estimation device 100 determines that delamination will occur in the future (fourth situation) when the sixth and seventh conditions are met. [Processing of the estimation device] Next, the processing of the estimation device 100 of the second embodiment will be described with reference to Figure 8. The processing unit 114 determines which of the above first to fourth situations the status of the wind power generation device 20, which is identified by the bearing ID obtained from the collection device 30 and the worker terminal 70, is. Furthermore, the determination by the processing unit 114 is made based on damage data (operation data obtained from the collection device 30, inspection data obtained from the worker terminal 70) and information stored in the storage unit 116.

[0202] The memory unit 116 stores past damage data 127, etc. The first function 141 and the second function 142, which are indicated by dashed lines, will be described later.

[0203] The past damage data 127 includes information necessary to identify which of the first to fourth conditions is present, as described above. The damage data 127 is information for determining whether each condition described in Figure 24 is met. The damage data 127 includes past operating data from the collection device 30 and past inspection data from the operator terminal 70. The processing unit 114 uses the past operating data and past inspection data for, for example, determining the decreasing trend of the kinematic viscosity of the lubricant 193 in the third condition, and determining the decreasing trend of the contamination coefficient of the bearing 120 in the sixth condition. In the storage unit 116, the past operating data and past inspection data are stored for each bearing ID. In addition, the storage unit 116 also stores information such as the calculation formula for the oil film parameter in the first condition and the threshold value for the first condition.

[0204] The processing unit 114 identifies which of the first to fourth conditions the bearing 120 is in, and then generates recommended image data indicating a maintenance method (see Figure 23) to resolve the first to fourth conditions. It then transmits the recommended image data to a predetermined terminal (user terminal 50 or worker terminal 70) corresponding to the maintenance method. The user terminal 50 or worker terminal 70 displays an image based on the recommended image data transmitted from the estimation device 100.

[0205] [Recommended Images] Next, we will explain the recommended images displayed by the user terminal 50 or the worker terminal 70. The recommended images include images that recommend maintenance of the wind power generation equipment 20 to user A or worker B.

[0206] Figure 25 is a diagram illustrating the first recommended image 271 corresponding to the first situation. The first recommended image 271 includes an image showing that micropitting has already occurred (the first situation). Furthermore, the first recommended image 271 includes an image recommending that worker B add an additive to the lubricant 193. By viewing this first recommended image 271, worker B can recognize that micropitting has already occurred and that adding an additive to the lubricant 193 is the appropriate course of action.

[0207] Figure 26 is a diagram illustrating the second recommended image 272 corresponding to the second situation. The second recommended image 272 includes an image showing that micropitting will occur in the future (the second situation). Furthermore, the second recommended image 272 includes an image recommending to worker B that the lubricant 193 be replaced or that an additive be added to the lubricant 193. By viewing this second recommended image 272, worker B can recognize that micropitting will occur in the future and that replacing the lubricant 193 or adding an additive to the lubricant 193 is the solution.

[0208] Figure 27 is a diagram illustrating the third recommended image 273 corresponding to the third situation. The third recommended image 273 includes an image showing that peeling has already occurred (the third situation). Furthermore, the third recommended image 273 includes an image recommending that worker B add an additive to the lubricant 193. By viewing this third recommended image 273, worker B can recognize that peeling has already occurred and that adding an additive to the lubricant 193 is sufficient.

[0209] Figure 28 is a diagram illustrating the fourth recommended image 274 corresponding to the fourth situation. The fourth recommended image 274 includes an image showing that delamination will occur in the future (the fourth situation). Furthermore, the fourth recommended image 274 includes an image recommending that worker B perform flushing of the drive unit. By viewing this fourth recommended image 274, worker B can recognize that delamination will occur in the future and that flushing of the drive unit is the appropriate course of action.

[0210] Figure 29 is a diagram illustrating the fifth recommended image 275 for user A, corresponding to the third situation. The fifth recommended image 275 includes an image showing that delamination has already occurred (the third situation). Furthermore, the fifth recommended image 275 includes an image showing that it is recommended that user A perform controlled operation of the wind power generation device 20 and to pay attention to the future progression of delamination. By viewing the fifth recommended image 275, user A can recognize that delamination has already occurred and that all that is needed is to perform controlled operation of the wind power generation device 20 and to pay attention to the future progression of delamination.

[0211] [Processing Flow of Estimation Device 100] Figure 30 is a flowchart showing the main processing flow of the estimation device 100. First, in step S2, the estimation device 100 inspects the micropitting of the bearing 120 using the operation data and inspection data. In step S2, if the estimation device 100 determines that micropitting will occur in the future, in step S4 it generates recommended image data (see Figure 26) that recommends replacing the lubricant 193 or adding an additive to the lubricant 193.

[0212] In step S2, if the estimation device 100 determines that micropitching has already occurred, in step S6 it generates recommended image data (see Figure 25) recommending the addition of an additive to the lubricant 193. Then the process proceeds to step S8.

[0213] In step S2, if the estimation device 100 determines that there is no micropitching (that micropitching has not occurred and will not occur in the future), the process proceeds to step S8.

[0214] In step S8, the estimation device 100 inspects the bearing 120 for delamination using the operating data and inspection data. If the estimation device 100 determines in step S8 that delamination will occur in the future, in step S10, the estimation device 100 generates recommended image data recommending that the drive unit be flushed and then an additive be added to the lubricant (see Figure 28). The process then proceeds to step S14.

[0215] In step S8, if the estimation device 100 determines that peeling has already occurred, in step S12 it generates recommended image data recommending the addition of an additive to the lubricant 193 (see Figure 27). Furthermore, the estimation device 100 generates recommended image data recommending the controlled operation of the wind power generation device 20 (see Figure 29). Then the process proceeds to step S14.

[0216] In step S14, the estimation device 100 transmits the generated recommended image data to the corresponding predetermined terminal. For example, the estimation device 100 transmits the "recommended image data recommending the controlled operation of the wind power generation device 20" described in step S10 to the user terminal 50. The estimation device 100 transmits recommended image data other than this recommended image data to the worker terminal 70. The terminal that receives the recommended image data displays an image based on the recommended image data (see Figures 25 to 29). If it is determined in step S2 that there is no micropitting and in step S8 that there is no peeling, then in step S14, the estimation device 100 transmits image data indicating that neither micropitting nor peeling has occurred to the user terminal 50 and the worker terminal 70.

[0217] [Summary of the Second Embodiment] (1) As shown in Figures 3 and 20, if worker B determines that micropitting 170 has already occurred on the surface 121A, he adds an additive to the lubricant 193 to reduce the height of the protrusions 170B caused by the micropitting 170. Subsequently, as the operation of the wind power generation device 20 continues, a phenomenon occurs (settlement) in which the height of the protrusions 170B changes to a shape with a smaller height and a larger radius of curvature at the tip. As a result, surface damage caused by interference of the protrusions on the surface 121A can be suppressed.

[0218] Furthermore, as shown in the modified examples in Figures 3 and 21, if worker B determines that micro-pitting 170 will occur on the surface 121A in the future, he replaces the lubricant 193 or adds an additive to the lubricant 193. This eliminates the deterioration of the lubricant 193 and, as a result, suppresses the occurrence of micro-pitting 170.

[0219] (2) As shown in Figures 2 and 18, when worker B determines that peeling 180 has occurred on the surface 121A, he adds an additive to the lubricant 193 to make the shape of the edge 180B of the recess 180A caused by the peeling 180 rounded. Subsequently, as the operation of the wind power generation device 20 continues, the radius of curvature of the edge 180B increases. Therefore, the expansion of the peeling 180 can be suppressed. Furthermore, as shown in Figure 22, user A performs controlled operation of the wind power generation device 20. This reduces the number of times the load is applied to the peeling 180, and thus the expansion of the peeling 180 can be suppressed.

[0220] (3) As shown in Figure 19, if worker B determines that delamination will occur on the surface 121A in the future, he will flush the drive unit. This will prevent deterioration of the lubricant 193. In addition, worker B will add an additive to the lubricant 193 after the drive unit. This will reduce the height of the protrusions that have formed on the edges of the already formed indentations. Therefore, it will be possible to suppress the progression of delamination from these indentations.

[0221] Furthermore, in this embodiment, appropriate measures to extend the lifespan of the bearing 120 can be taken based on the estimation results of the bearing 120's damage mechanism (determination results of the first to fourth conditions). As a result, the incidence of damage requiring replacement of the bearing 120 due to damage to the bearing 120 within the service life of the wind power generation device 20 can be reduced. Moreover, the estimation device 100 can suppress unnecessary maintenance costs caused by implementing inappropriate and ineffective life-extending measures. For example, if the condition of the bearing 120 is the first condition (a condition in which micro-pitching has already occurred), it is difficult to suppress the expansion of micro-pitching even if the drive unit is flushed. Therefore, if the condition of the bearing 120 is the first condition, worker B will add an additive to the lubricant 193 without flushing the drive unit. In this way, by implementing appropriate life-extending measures and refraining from implementing ineffective life-extending measures, the maintenance costs of the bearing 120 within the service life of the wind power generation device 20 can be reduced.

[0222] (4) As shown in Figure 24, the conditions used to determine whether or not micropitting occurs include the occurrence conditions for micropitting and the non-occurrence conditions for delamination. The estimation device 100 determines that micropitting has occurred or will occur in the future if it determines that both the occurrence conditions and the non-occurrence conditions are met. Therefore, the estimation device 100 can determine whether or not micropitting has occurred or will occur in the future with simple control.

[0223] (5) As shown in Figure 24, the conditions for occurrence include the first to third conditions. Therefore, the estimation device 100 can appropriately determine whether or not the conditions for occurrence are met using the damage data.

[0224] (6) As shown in Figure 24, the non-occurrence conditions include the fourth and fifth conditions. Therefore, the estimation device 100 can appropriately determine whether or not the non-occurrence conditions are met using the damage data.

[0225] (7) As shown in Figure 24, the estimation device 100 determines that micropitching is occurring when the first, second, fourth, and fifth conditions are met. Therefore, the estimation device 100 can determine that micropitching is occurring based on the damage data.

[0226] (8) As shown in Figure 24, the estimation device 100 determines that micropitting will occur in the future when the first, third, and fourth conditions are met. Therefore, the estimation device 100 can determine that micropitting will occur in the future based on the damage data.

[0227] (9) The predetermined value used in the fifth condition shown in Figure 24 is 0.5 when the pitch diameter of the rolling element is less than 100 mm, and 0.6 when the pitch diameter of the rolling element is 100 mm or more. With this configuration, the estimation device 100 can appropriately determine whether or not the fifth condition is met according to the pitch diameter of the rolling element.

[0228] (10) As shown in Figure 24, the estimation device 100 determines that delamination will occur in the future when the sixth and seventh conditions are met. Therefore, the estimation device 100 can determine that delamination will occur in the future based on the damage data.

[0229] (11) The second predetermined value used in the sixth condition shown in Figure 24 is 0.3 when the pitch diameter of the rolling element is less than 100 mm, and 0.4 when the pitch diameter of the rolling element is 100 mm or more. With this configuration, the estimation device 100 can appropriately determine whether or not the sixth condition is met according to the pitch diameter of the rolling element.

[0230] <Third Embodiment> In the second embodiment, a configuration was described in which micro-pitching inspection (determining whether micro-pitching has already occurred and whether micro-pitching will occur in the future) uses conditions for occurrence and conditions for non-occurrence. This micro-pitching inspection may be performed by other methods.

[0231] For example, the estimation device 100 may perform micro-pitching inspection using the first function 141 shown in Figure 8.

[0232] The first function 141 is a function that outputs the micro-pitching life (the timing of micro-pitching occurrence) when the above-mentioned damage data is input. For example, the first function 141 is a function that takes at least the rotational speed of the rotating body and the bearing temperature as input. The first function 141 includes a first calculation formula and a second calculation formula. The first calculation formula is an formula in which a larger surface stress is calculated as the rotational speed decreases and the bearing temperature increases. The surface stress is the stress that occurs on the surface of the bearing 120. The second calculation formula outputs the timing of micro-pitching occurrence based on the calculated surface stress. The second calculation formula calculates a shorter micro-pitching life as the surface stress increases. The micro-pitching life is the period from the timing at which the timing of micro-pitching occurrence is output (the current timing) to the timing of micro-pitching occurrence.

[0233] The estimation device 100 has a first threshold and a second threshold that is smaller than the first threshold as thresholds for the micropitching lifetime. The second threshold corresponds to the "specified value" in this disclosure. If the micropitching lifetime is less than the second threshold, the estimation device 100 determines that micropitching is occurring. If the micropitching lifetime is greater than or equal to the second threshold but less than the first threshold, the estimation device 100 determines that micropitching will occur in the future. If the micropitching lifetime is greater than or equal to the first threshold, the estimation device 100 determines that micropitching is not occurring and will not occur in the future.

[0234] Thus, the estimation device 100 calculates the micropitching lifetime based on the damage data and the first function 141 described above, and based on the micropitching lifetime, it can determine whether micropitching is occurring and whether micropitching will occur in the future (it can perform a micropitching inspection). Therefore, the estimation device 100 can perform a micropitching inspection appropriately.

[0235] Furthermore, the estimation device 100 determines that micropitching is occurring if the micropitching lifetime is less than the second threshold. Therefore, the estimation device 100 can determine that micropitching is occurring through simple comparative control.

[0236] Furthermore, the conditions for determining that micropitching has already occurred (the first, second, fourth, and fifth conditions) may include the condition that the micropitching lifetime is less than the second threshold. Details of the first function 141 are disclosed, for example, in Japanese Patent Application No. 2023-192977, also filed by the same applicant.

[0237] Furthermore, the estimation device 100 may perform a delamination inspection (determining whether delamination has already occurred and whether delamination will occur in the future) using the second function 142 in Figure 8.

[0238] The second function 142 is, for example, the rated life formula due to delamination as defined in ISO 281 (2007).

[0239] The estimation device 100 has a third threshold and a fourth threshold that is smaller than the third threshold as thresholds for the delamination life. If the delamination life is less than the fourth threshold, the estimation device 100 determines that delamination has occurred. If the delamination life is between the fourth threshold and the third threshold, the estimation device 100 determines that delamination will occur in the future. If the delamination life is greater than or equal to the third threshold, the estimation device 100 determines that delamination has not occurred and will not occur in the future. With this configuration, the estimation device 100 can perform delamination inspection appropriately.

[0240] <Fourth Embodiment> In the fourth embodiment, worker B and at least one of the estimation devices 100 determine the occurrence of micropitting and delamination based on the size of the material fragments contained in the lubricant 193. For example, worker B extracts at least a portion of the lubricant 193 contained in the bearing 120 during periodic maintenance. Worker B also filters the at least portion of the lubricant 193. The filtering process is optional.

[0241] Operator B observes the material fragments contained in the filtered residue using a measuring device (e.g., a scanning electron microscope). The "extracted lubricant 193" or "residue" corresponds to an example of "at least some of the lubricant" in this disclosure. Operator B then transmits the observation image of the residue (see Figures 31 to 33 below) to the estimation device 100 using a predetermined device (e.g., the measuring device or operator terminal 70). Note that the extraction of the lubricant and the observation of the material fragments contained therein by operator B may be performed by another specialist.

[0242] The material fragments are typically pieces that have detached from the bearing 120. The material fragments may also include materials derived from the fragments (for example, oxides of the fragments). The material fragments are also sometimes referred to as "metal fragments."

[0243] Figure 31 is an example of an observation image of the residue (at least some of the lubricant 193) when micropitting has already occurred. In the example in Figure 31, three material fragments are shown to be present in the residue. The estimation device 100 also calculates material parameters for multiple material fragments (three material fragments in Figure 31).

[0244] Here, the material parameter is a parameter relating to the degree of size of multiple material pieces included in the observed image. The material parameter may be the maximum value among the sizes of each of the multiple material pieces. Alternatively, the material parameter may be a representative value of the multiple material pieces. The representative value includes at least one of the mean, median, and mode. In this embodiment, the material parameter is the maximum value among the sizes of each of the multiple material pieces.

[0245] Furthermore, "size of the material piece" refers to, for example, the longest length from one end to the other of the material piece. Figure 31 shows the largest material piece M1, which has a size of approximately 210 μm.

[0246] Figure 32 shows another example of an observed image where micropitting has already occurred. In the example in Figure 32, the residue contains six material fragments. In Figure 32, the largest material fragment M2 is shown, and the size of material fragment M2 is approximately 100 μm.

[0247] Figure 33 is an example of an observation image when delamination has already occurred. In Figure 33, the largest material piece M3 is shown, and the size of material piece M3 is approximately 1400 μm. Figures 31 and 32 are observation images of bearing 120, which is a cylindrical roller bearing made of SUJ (Steel Used for bearing Japanese Industrial Standard) 2. Figure 33 is an observation image of bearing 120, which is a self-aligning roller bearing.

[0248] Based on the observation results (observation images) in Figures 31 to 33, the inventors of this disclosure have found that if the material parameter (for example, the maximum value among the sizes of each of the multiple material pieces) is smaller than a first reference value, it is highly likely that micropitting has already occurred. Furthermore, based on the observation results in Figures 31 to 33, the inventors of this disclosure have found that if the material parameter is larger than a second reference value, it is highly likely that delamination has already occurred.

[0249] Here, the second reference value is a value greater than the first reference value. For example, the first reference value is 500 μm, and the second reference value is 1000 μm.

[0250] Figure 34 is a diagram, different from Figure 24, that illustrates a method for identifying (estimating) the first to fourth situations described above. In Figure 34, the conditions for the occurrence of micropitting include a ninth condition. The ninth condition is that the material parameter is less than the first reference value. Also in Figure 34, the conditions for the occurrence of delamination include a tenth condition. The tenth condition is that the material parameter is greater than the second reference value. The conditions for when the material parameter is greater than or equal to the first reference value and less than or equal to the second reference value are not specified in this disclosure.

[0251] In the example shown in Figure 34, the estimation device 100 determines that micropitching is occurring (first situation) when at least one of the first to fifth conditions and the ninth condition is met. More preferably, the estimation device 100 may determine that micropitching has already occurred (first situation) when at least one of the first and third conditions, the fourth condition, and at least one of the second and ninth conditions are met.

[0252] Furthermore, the estimation device 100 determines that peeling has occurred (third situation) when at least one of the second, sixth, eighth, and tenth conditions is met. It has been confirmed by the inventors that peeling may still occur even when the ninth condition is met. Therefore, the estimation device 100 may also determine that peeling has occurred (third situation) when at least one of the second, sixth, eighth, and ninth conditions is met.

[0253] As a variation, the estimation device 100 may determine that micropitting has already occurred when only condition 9 is met, regardless of whether conditions 1 to 5 are met. Alternatively, the estimation device 100 may determine that delamination has already occurred when only condition 10 is met, regardless of whether conditions 2, 6, and 8 are met.

[0254] As described above, the estimation device 100 determines that micropitching has already occurred when at least one condition, including the ninth condition, is met. Therefore, the estimation device 100 can determine relatively easily that micropitching has already occurred.

[0255] Furthermore, the estimation device 100 determines that delamination has already occurred when at least one condition, including the tenth condition, is met. Therefore, the estimation device 100 can determine relatively easily that delamination has already occurred.

[0256] <Fifth Embodiment> In the fifth embodiment, an embodiment using the ninth and tenth conditions described above will be explained. Figure 35 is a flowchart showing the main processing flow of the estimation device 100 of the fourth embodiment. Note that the step numbers of the processes in Figure 35 that are the same as the processes in Figure 30 are assigned the same numbers as the step numbers of the processes in Figure 30.

[0257] First, in step S202, the estimation device 100 acquires an observation image. Next, in step S204, the estimation device 100 counts the material fragments (images) contained in the observation image by performing image recognition on the observation image.

[0258] Next, in step S206, worker B or the estimation device 100 determines whether the number of material pieces is greater than a predetermined number. The predetermined number is, for example, "2".

[0259] If the number of material pieces is less than a predetermined number (NO in step S206), the process proceeds to step S14. In step S14, the estimation device 100 transmits image data indicating that neither micropitting nor peeling has occurred to the user terminal 50 and the worker terminal 70.

[0260] If the number of material pieces is greater than or equal to a predetermined number (YES in step S206), in step S208, the estimation device 100 calculates the material parameters. In step S210, the estimation device 100 determines whether the material parameters are greater than the first reference value. If NO is determined in step S210, the estimation device 100 determines that micropitting has already occurred and executes the process in step S506 of Figure 30.

[0261] Furthermore, if the result in step S210 is YES, then in step S212, the estimation device 100 determines whether the material parameter is greater than the second reference value. If the result in step S212 is YES, the estimation device 100 determines that delamination has already occurred and executes the process in step S512 of Figure 30. After the completion of the processes in step S516 and step S512, the estimation device 100 executes the process in step S514.

[0262] If NO is determined in step S212, it is unclear whether micropitting or delamination occurred; therefore, in this case, the process shown in Figure 35 is terminated.

[0263] In summary, the estimation device 100 proposes a maintenance method using the material parameters of the lubricant 193. Therefore, the estimation device 100 can propose a maintenance method relatively easily.

[0264] Note that each process in Figure 35 may be performed by an entity other than the entity described above. For example, the processes in steps S202 and S204 may be performed by worker B or an entity other than worker B, instead of the estimation device 100.

[0265] <Other Embodiments> (1) The flows in Figures 18 to 22 described above illustrate a configuration in which a human (user A or worker B) performs the operations. However, at least some of the operations in the flows in Figures 18 to 22 may be performed by a work robot (work device).

[0266] (2) In the above-described embodiment, a configuration was described in which image 71 and image 75 are displayed on separate terminals (user terminal 50 and worker terminal 70). However, image 71 and image 75 may be displayed on the same terminal. With such a configuration, the same worker performs the processes shown in Figures 18 and 22.

[0267] (3) The estimation device 100 may be configured to display the total fatigue level on a designated terminal. With this configuration, the person viewing the designated terminal can recognize the total fatigue level.

[0268] (4) In the above-described embodiment, a configuration was described in which the estimation device 100 calculates the corrected rated life for each range each time a predetermined condition is met. However, the corrected rated life for each range may be a predetermined value.

[0269] (5) The configuration in which the estimation device 100 performs the determination process for the presence or absence of the first to fourth situations described above has been explained. However, at least a part of this determination process may be performed by a worker B or other (human).

[0270] (6) Other methods for calculating the pollution coefficient e described above will be explained. For example, when the lubricant 193 is lubricating oil, the pollution coefficient e may be determined by the estimation device 100 by referring to the filter filtration ratio described in ISO 16889 and the oil pollution code specified in ISO 4406. Diagrams for determining the pollution coefficient e in the case of oil lubrication using these methods, and methods for determining the pollution coefficient e when the lubricant is grease, are described in ISO 281 (2007).

[0271] In this embodiment, the estimation device 100 determines the pollution coefficient e using a method based on the lubrication method of the bearing 120. For example, bearings incorporated into the gearbox of a wind power generation device 20 often use lubricating oil as a lubricant. If the pollution level code of the lubricating oil for the gearbox bearings is checked according to ISO 4406 during periodic maintenance of the wind power generation device 20, the pollution coefficient e may be determined based on that result.

[0272] (7) In the above-described embodiment, a configuration was described in which the third recommended image 273 and the fifth recommended image 275 are displayed on separate terminals (user terminal 50 and worker terminal 70). However, the third recommended image 273 and the fifth recommended image 275 may be displayed on the same terminal. With such a configuration, the same worker performs the processes shown in Figures 18 and 22.

[0273] (8) Figure 36 is a diagram illustrating a preferred example of the components of the additive described above. The additive may contain at least one of the first to third components. In Figure 36, each preferred component of the first to third components and the preferred mass percentage (wt%) of the component are specified. In this embodiment, typically, the mass percentage is the ratio of the mass of the component to the mass of the carrier. The carrier is, for example, white oil.

[0274] The first component described above is a component belonging to the three-layer silicate, and more specifically, comprises at least one of Trefil® 1232 and mica. Trefil 1232 is a natural phlogopite coated with aminosilane. The preferred components and component ratios of Trefil 1232 are SiO ２ (Silicon dioxide) makes up 41%, and Al ２ O ３ It contains 10% aluminum oxide, 26% magnesium oxide (MgO), 2% calcium oxide (CaO), and K ２ O (potassium oxide) is 10%, Fe ２ O ３ (Iron(III) oxide) is 8%, H ２It contains 2% water (O) and 1% fluorine (F).

[0275] Mica (MICA SFG70) is natural muscovite with a particle size of 70. The preferred component of mica is SiO ２ 51.5% is Al ２ O ３ 27.0%, K ２ O is 10.0%, CaO is 0.4%, Fe ２ O ３ It is 2.9%, MgO is 2.8%, and TiO ２ (Titanium dioxide) is 0.4%, Na ２ O (sodium oxide) is 0.2%, P ２ O ５ The content of phosphorus pentoxide is 0.2%, manganese monoxide (MnO) is 0.03%, and the roasting loss is 4.57%.

[0276] The preferred mass percentage of Trefil 1232 and mica is 7.2 wt%.

[0277] The second component described above comprises at least one of bentonite, pyrogenic silicic acid, and talc. The preferred mass percentages of bentonite, pyrogenic silicic acid, and talc are 2.4 wt%, 3.2 wt%, and 10 wt%, respectively.

[0278] The third component described above comprises at least one of the following: Carbopower® SGN18, Special Black (e.g., carbon black), propylene carbonate, water, and a dispersant. The dispersant comprises at least one of the following: TEGOPREN® 6875 and TEGOMER® DA646.

[0279] The preferred mass percentages of CarbopowerSGN18, Special Black, propylene carbonate, and water are 0.6 wt%, 0.04 wt%, 0.5 wt%, and 0.025 wt%, respectively.

[0280] Furthermore, the preferred mass percentage of TEGOPREN6875 and TEGOMERDA646 is 10 wt%. However, the mass percentage of TEGOPREN6875 and TEGOMERDA646 is the ratio of their mass to the total mass of all solids contained in the additive.

[0281] Furthermore, the mass percentage of the component shown in Figure 36 may be any value within the range with the said mass percentage as the median. For example, the mass percentage M of the component shown in Figure 36 may be any value within the range of M × (1 - α) or more and M × (1 + α) or less, where α is greater than 0 and less than 1. For example, α may be any value between "0.2" and "0.05".

[0282] For example, when α = 0.1, the mass percentage of Trefil 1232 is 6.48 (= 7.2 × 0.9) wt% or more, and is one of the values ​​in the range of 7.92 (= 7.2 × 1.1) wt% or more.

[0283] [Note] (Note 1) An estimation device comprising: an interface for acquiring a first physical quantity of a bearing for which a rated life is defined; a memory for storing range information relating to a plurality of first ranges of the first physical quantity; and a control device, wherein the modified rated life is associated with each of the plurality of first ranges; the control device identifies a time parameter relating to the time during which the first physical quantity acquired by the interface belongs to the first range for each of the plurality of first ranges; and estimates at least one of the future timing of damage to the bearing (if damage has not occurred) and the fatigue level of the bearing, based on the time parameter for each of the plurality of first ranges and the modified rated life for each of the plurality of first ranges.

[0284] (Note 2) The estimation device according to Note 1, wherein the interface acquires a second physical quantity of the bearing, the range information includes information on a plurality of second ranges, the plurality of second ranges include at least one of the first ranges, and the control device identifies a parameter relating to the time to which the second physical quantity belongs in each of the plurality of second ranges and to which the first physical quantity belongs in a plurality of first ranges constituting the second range as the time parameter.

[0285] (Note 3) The estimation device described in Note 1 or Note 2, wherein the estimation device calculates the modified rated life for each of the plurality of first ranges based on a value derived from a first physical quantity defined in the first range, and associates the calculated modified rated life for each of the plurality of first ranges.

[0286] (Note 4) The control device calculates the unit fatigue degree for each of the plurality of first ranges by dividing the time parameter in the first range by the modified rated life associated with the first range, and estimates the total value of the unit fatigue degrees in the plurality of first ranges as the fatigue degree, as described in any one of Notes 1 to 3.

[0287] (Note 5) The control device is the estimation device described in Note 4, which estimates the time when the fatigue level reaches a predetermined value as the time when the damage occurs.

[0288] (Note 6) The control device is the estimation device described in Note 5, which estimates the time of occurrence such that the period from the time of estimation of the fatigue level to the time of occurrence becomes shorter as the fatigue level increases.

[0289] (Note 7) The control device is an estimation device according to any one of Notes 1 to 6, which displays the estimation result of the control device on a predetermined terminal.

[0290] (Note 8) The estimation device described in Note 7, wherein the estimation device determines a recommended treatment for the damage based on the estimation result and displays an image indicating the recommended treatment on the predetermined terminal.

[0291] (Note 9) The estimation device is the estimation device described in Note 7 or Note 8, which displays an image indicating the soundness of the bearing on the predetermined terminal.

[0292] (Note 10) The bearing comprises a predetermined member and a lubricant for lubricating the predetermined member, the damage is delamination occurring on the surface of the predetermined member, and the control device, when it estimates that delamination has occurred, determines as the recommended treatment to add an additive to the lubricant to increase the radius of curvature of the edge portion caused by the delamination, and to suppress the operation of the rotating machine including the bearing, as described in Note 8.

[0293] (Note 11) The bearing comprises a predetermined member and a lubricant for lubricating the predetermined member, the damage is delamination occurring on the surface of the predetermined member, and the control device, when estimating the future timing of the delamination, determines as the recommended treatment to add an additive to reduce protrusions on the surface, or to perform flushing of the drive device including the bearing, the estimation device according to Note 8.

[0294] (Note 12) The estimation device according to Note 10 or Note 11, wherein the bearing damage is smaller in scale than the delamination and includes micropitting that may occur on the surface of the predetermined member, and when the control device determines that micropitting is occurring, it decides as the recommended treatment to add an additive to the lubricant to reduce the protrusions caused by the micropitting.

[0295] (Note 13) The estimation device described in Note 12, wherein the control device determines the timing of the occurrence of the micropitching and decides to replace the lubricant as the recommended treatment.

[0296] (Note 14) An estimation method comprising: obtaining a first physical quantity of a bearing for which a rated life is specified; identifying a time parameter relating to the time to which the first physical quantity belongs for each of a plurality of first ranges of the first physical quantity; and estimating at least one of the presence or absence of damage to the bearing, the future timing of the damage, and the fatigue level of the bearing based on the time parameter for each of the plurality of first ranges and the modified rated life for each of the plurality of first ranges.

[0297] (Note 15) A method for extending the life of a bearing, comprising: obtaining a first physical quantity of a bearing for which a rated life is specified; identifying a time parameter relating to the time to which the first physical quantity belongs for each of a plurality of first ranges of the first physical quantity; estimating the future timing of bearing damage based on the time parameter for each of the plurality of first ranges and the modified rated life for each of the plurality of first ranges; and extending the life of the bearing based on the timing of the damage, wherein the bearing comprises a predetermined member and a lubricant for lubricating the predetermined member, and extending the life of the bearing includes at least one of the following: suppressing the operation of a rotating machine including the bearing; replacing the lubricant; flushing a drive device including the bearing; and adding an additive to the lubricant to reduce protrusions caused by the damage.

[0298] (Note 16) The disclosure relating to Note 16 may include the following Notes 16A and 16B.

[0299] (Appendix 16A) A method for extending the life of a bearing, wherein the bearing comprises a predetermined member and a lubricant for lubricating the predetermined member, and the maintenance method comprises: obtaining a first physical quantity of a bearing whose rated life is defined; identifying a time parameter relating to the time to which the first physical quantity belongs for each of a plurality of first ranges of the first physical quantity; estimating whether a first damage has occurred on the surface of the predetermined member and whether the first damage will occur in the future, based on the time parameter for each of the plurality of first ranges and the modified rated life for each of the plurality of first ranges; adding an additive to the lubricant to reduce the height of a protrusion caused by the first damage if it is estimated that the first damage has occurred; and replacing the lubricant or adding the additive to the lubricant if it is estimated that the first damage will occur in the future.

[0300] (Appendix 16B) A method for extending the life of a bearing, wherein the bearing comprises a predetermined member and a lubricant for lubricating the predetermined member, and the maintenance method comprises: when it is determined that a first damage has occurred on the surface of the predetermined member, adding an additive to the lubricant to reduce the height of a protrusion caused by the first damage; and when it is determined that the first damage has not occurred but is likely to occur in the future, replacing the lubricant or adding the additive to the lubricant.

[0301] (Note 17) The bearing maintenance method according to Note 16, comprising: when it is determined that a second damage, which is larger in scale than the first damage, has occurred on the surface, adding an additive to the lubricant to increase the radius of curvature of the edge of the recess caused by the second damage; and performing a controlled operation to reduce the rotational speed of the rotating body contained in the bearing.

[0302] (Note 18) The bearing maintenance method according to Note 17, comprising: performing flushing of the drive unit including the bearing when the second damage has not occurred on the surface but it is determined that the second damage will occur in the future; and adding an additive to the lubricant after flushing the drive unit to reduce protrusions on the surface.

[0303] (Note 19) A bearing maintenance method according to Note 17 or Note 18, wherein it is determined that the first damage has occurred or will occur in the future when the conditions for the occurrence of the first damage and the conditions for the non-occurrence of the second damage are met.

[0304] (Note 20) The bearing maintenance method according to Note 19, wherein the conditions for occurrence include at least one of the following: a first condition in which, during past operation of the rotating machine including the bearing, the oil film parameter relating to the oil film of the lubricant fell below a threshold; a second condition in which, during past operation of the rotating machine, the content of the bearing material in the lubricant tended to increase; and a third condition in which, during past operation of the rotating machine, the kinematic viscosity of the lubricant tended to decrease.

[0305] (Note 21) The bearing maintenance method according to Note 20, wherein the non-occurrence condition includes at least one of the following: a fourth condition in which it is determined that the second damage has not occurred on the surface, and a fifth condition in which, in past operation of the rotating machine including the bearing, the ISO 281 (2007) compliant contamination coefficient of the bearing is greater than a predetermined value.

[0306] (Note 22) The bearing maintenance method described in Note 21, wherein it is determined that the first damage has occurred when the first condition, the second condition, the fourth condition, and the fifth condition are met.

[0307] (Note 23) The bearing maintenance method described in Note 21, wherein when the first condition, the third condition, and the fourth condition are met, it is determined that the first damage will occur in the future.

[0308] (Note 24) The bearing maintenance method described in Note 21, wherein the second damage is determined to occur in the future when the sixth condition is met, which is that in past operation of the rotating machine including the bearing, the contamination coefficient of the bearing in accordance with ISO 281 (2007) has been below a predetermined value or the contamination coefficient is on a decreasing trend, and the seventh condition is met, which is that the monitoring device for the bearing has determined that no second damage has occurred on the surface.

[0309] (Note 25) The maintenance method according to Note 20, wherein the occurrence conditions include at least one of the first condition, the second condition, the third condition, and the ninth condition, and the ninth condition is a condition in which a material parameter relating to the size of a plurality of material pieces contained in at least a portion of the lubricant is less than a first reference value.

[0310] (Note 26) The maintenance method according to Note 21, wherein the occurrence conditions include at least one of the first condition, the second condition, the third condition, and the ninth condition, the ninth condition being that a material parameter relating to the size of a plurality of material pieces contained in at least a portion of the lubricant is less than a first reference value, and the first damage is determined to have occurred when at least one of the first condition and the third condition, the fourth condition, and at least one of the second condition and the ninth condition are met.

[0311] (Note 27) The maintenance method described in Note 25, wherein the second damage is determined to have occurred when the tenth condition, which is that the material parameter is greater than the second reference value, is met. The second reference value may be greater than the first reference value.

[0312] (Note 28) The disclosure relating to Note 28 may include the following Notes 28A and 28B.

[0313] Note (28A) The damage includes a first damage, and the control device transmits information to a predetermined terminal to recommend to the operator that an additive be added to the lubricant to reduce the height of a protrusion caused by the first damage when the control device determines, based on the time parameters for each of the plurality of first ranges and the modified rated life for each of the plurality of first ranges, that a first damage has occurred on the surface, and transmits information to a predetermined terminal to recommend that the lubricant be replaced or that the additive be added to the lubricant when the control device determines, based on the damage data, that a first damage has not occurred but will occur in the future, based on the time parameters for each of the plurality of first ranges and the modified rated life for each of the plurality of first ranges.

[0314] (Appendix 28B) Estimation device for a bearing, wherein the bearing comprises a predetermined member and a lubricant for lubricating the predetermined member, the estimation device comprises an interface for acquiring damage data relating to damage to the surface of the predetermined member and a control device, the control device transmits information to a predetermined terminal to recommend to the operator that an additive be added to the lubricant to reduce the height of a protrusion caused by the first damage when the control device determines, based on the damage data, that a first damage has occurred on the surface, and transmits information to a predetermined terminal to recommend that the lubricant be replaced or that the additive be added to the lubricant when the control device determines, based on the damage data, that the first damage has not occurred but will occur in the future.

[0315] (Note 29) The disclosure relating to Note 29 may include the following Notes 29A and 29B.

[0316] (Note 29A) The bearing comprises a predetermined member and a lubricant for lubricating the predetermined member, wherein damage to the surface of the predetermined member includes a first damage and a second damage which is larger in scale than the first damage, and the control device, when it determines based on the damage data that the second damage has occurred on the surface, transmits information to a predetermined terminal to recommend adding an additive to the lubricant to increase the radius of curvature of the edge of the recess caused by the second damage and to perform a controlled operation that reduces the rotational speed of the rotating body contained in the bearing, and when it determines based on the damage data that the second damage has not occurred but will occur in the future, transmits information to a predetermined terminal to recommend performing flushing of the drive device including the bearing and to add an additive to the lubricant after flushing of the drive device to reduce the protrusions on the surface, the estimation device according to any one of Notes 1 to 13.

[0317] (Appendix 29B) A bearing estimation device, wherein the bearing comprises a predetermined member and a lubricant for lubricating the predetermined member, the surface damage of the predetermined member includes a first damage and a second damage which is larger in scale than the first damage, the estimation device comprises an interface for acquiring damage data relating to the surface damage of the predetermined member and a control device, the control device transmits information to a predetermined terminal to recommend, when it determines based on the damage data that the second damage has occurred on the surface, that an additive is added to the lubricant to increase the radius of curvature of the edge of the recess caused by the second damage and that a control operation is performed to reduce the rotational speed of the rotating body included in the bearing, and when it determines based on the damage data that the second damage has not occurred but will occur in the future, the estimation device transmits information to a predetermined terminal to recommend that a flushing of the drive device including the bearing be performed and that an additive is added to the lubricant after flushing the drive device to reduce the surface protrusions.

[0318] (Disclosure Item 1) An estimation device for a bearing, wherein the bearing comprises a predetermined member and a lubricant for lubricating the predetermined member, the estimation device comprises an interface for acquiring observation images of at least a portion of the lubricant and a control device, the control device determines that a first damage has occurred if a material parameter relating to the size of a plurality of material pieces contained in at least a portion of the lubricant is less than a first reference value, and determines that a second damage greater than the first damage has occurred if the material parameter is greater than a second reference value. The second reference value may be greater than the first reference value.

[0319] (Disclosure Item 2) A method for managing a bearing, wherein the bearing comprises a predetermined member and a lubricant for lubricating the predetermined member, and the management method comprises: acquiring an observation image of at least a portion of the lubricant; determining that a first damage has occurred if a material parameter relating to the size of a plurality of material pieces contained in at least a portion of the lubricant is less than a first reference value; and determining that a second damage greater than the first damage has occurred if the material parameter is greater than a second reference value. The second reference value may be greater than the first reference value.

[0320] The embodiments disclosed herein should be considered in all respects to be illustrative and not restrictive. The scope of the present invention is indicated by the claims rather than by the description of the embodiments above, and all modifications within the meaning and scope of the claims are intended to be included.

[0321] 10 Management system, 20 Wind power generation device, 30 Collection device, 41 Speed ​​sensor, 42 Temperature sensor, 50 User terminal, 60 Wind power generation unit, 70 Worker terminal, 71-75 Image, 100 Estimation device, 104 Memory, 106 Interface, 112 Acquisition unit, 114 Processing unit, 116 Storage unit, 120 Bearing, 121 Range information, 127 Damage data, 131 Delamination life function, 132 Micropitching life function, 191 Rolling element, 192 Raceway ring, 193 Lubricant.

Claims

1. An estimation device comprising: an interface for acquiring a first physical quantity of a bearing for which a rated life is defined; a memory for storing range information relating to a plurality of first ranges of the first physical quantity; and a control device, wherein the modified rated life is associated with each of the plurality of first ranges; the control device identifies a time parameter relating to the time during which the first physical quantity acquired by the interface belongs to the first range for each of the plurality of first ranges; and estimates at least one of the future timing of damage to the bearing (if damage has not occurred) and the fatigue level of the bearing, based on the time parameter for each of the plurality of first ranges and the modified rated life for each of the plurality of first ranges.

2. The estimation device according to claim 1, wherein the interface acquires a second physical quantity of the bearing, the range information includes information on a plurality of second ranges, the plurality of second ranges include at least one of the first ranges, and the control device identifies a parameter relating to the time to which the second physical quantity belongs in each of the plurality of second ranges and to which the first physical quantity belongs in a plurality of first ranges constituting the second range as the time parameter.

3. The estimation device according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the estimation device calculates the modified rated life for each of the plurality of first ranges based on a value derived from a first physical quantity defined in the first range, and associates the calculated modified rated life for each of the plurality of first ranges.

4. The control device calculates the unit fatigue degree for each of the plurality of first ranges by dividing the time parameter in the first range by the modified rated life associated with the first range, and estimates the total value of the unit fatigue degrees in the plurality of first ranges as the fatigue degree, according to claim 1 or 2.

5. The estimation device according to claim 4, wherein the control device estimates the time when the fatigue level reaches a predetermined value as the time when the damage occurs.

6. The estimation device according to claim 5, wherein the control device estimates the time of occurrence such that the period from the time of estimation of the fatigue level to the time of occurrence becomes shorter as the fatigue level increases.

7. The estimation device according to claim 1 or claim 2, wherein the control device displays the estimation result of the control device on a predetermined terminal.

8. The estimation device according to claim 7, wherein the estimation device determines a recommended treatment for the damage based on the estimation result and displays an image indicating the recommended treatment on the predetermined terminal.

9. The estimation device according to claim 7, wherein the estimation device displays an image indicating the soundness of the bearing on the predetermined terminal.

10. The estimation device according to claim 8, wherein the bearing comprises a predetermined member and a lubricant for lubricating the predetermined member, the damage is delamination occurring on the surface of the predetermined member, and when the control device estimates that delamination has occurred, it determines, as the recommended treatment, to add an additive to the lubricant to increase the radius of curvature of the edge of the recess caused by the delamination, and to suppress the operation of the rotating machine including the bearing.

11. The estimation device according to claim 8, wherein the bearing comprises a predetermined member and a lubricant for lubricating the predetermined member, the damage is delamination occurring on the surface of the predetermined member, and the control device, when estimating the future timing of the delamination, determines as the recommended treatment to add an additive for reducing protrusions on the surface, or to perform flushing of the drive device including the bearing.

12. The estimation device according to claim 10, wherein the bearing damage is smaller in scale than the delamination and includes micropitting that may occur on the surface of the predetermined member, and when the control device determines that micropitting is occurring, it determines that the recommended treatment is to add an additive to the lubricant to reduce the protrusions caused by the micropitting.

13. The estimation device according to claim 12, wherein the control device determines the timing of the occurrence of the micropitching and decides to replace the lubricant as the recommended treatment.

14. An estimation method comprising: obtaining a first physical quantity of a bearing for which a rated life is specified; identifying a time parameter relating to the time to which the first physical quantity belongs for each of a plurality of first ranges of the first physical quantity; and estimating at least one of the presence or absence of damage to the bearing, the future timing of the damage, and the fatigue level of the bearing, based on the time parameter for each of the plurality of first ranges and the modified rated life for each of the plurality of first ranges.

15. A method for extending the life of a bearing, comprising: obtaining a first physical quantity of a bearing for which a rated life is specified; identifying a time parameter relating to the time to which the first physical quantity belongs for each of a plurality of first ranges of the first physical quantity; estimating the future timing of bearing damage based on the time parameter for each of the plurality of first ranges and the modified rated life for each of the plurality of first ranges; and extending the life of the bearing based on the timing of the damage, wherein the bearing comprises a predetermined member and a lubricant for lubricating the predetermined member, and extending the life of the bearing includes at least one of the following: suppressing the operation of a rotating machine including the bearing; replacing the lubricant; flushing a drive device including the bearing; and adding an additive to the lubricant to reduce protrusions caused by the damage.

Images