Dynamic acquisition method, device and system for carbon quota transaction strategy

Abstract

The invention discloses a dynamic acquisition method, device and system for a carbon quota transaction strategy, and belongs to the technical field of power system control, and the method comprises the steps: for a thermal power generating unit at a supply side, calculating an accumulated error corresponding to the total carbon quota of an expected transaction and an actual transaction in the number of days of completed transactions all the year round; distributing the accumulated error according to the carbon quota demand in the future to obtain a daily carbon quota declaration correction component; and superposing the daily carbon quota transaction reference quantity and the carbon quota declaration correction component to obtain the current-day carbon market transaction quantity. According to the method, factors such as market subject carbon quota yield prediction, actual transaction carbon quota errors and non-uniform carbon quota yield time distribution are integrated, and the power industry market subject carbon quota transaction volume is optimized, so that the market subject can formulate a scientific and reasonable carbon quota transaction strategy; the technical problem that a traditional static quota transaction decision is mismatched with a dynamic operation scene of a power system is solved.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application belongs to the technical field of power system dispatching, and more particularly relates to a dynamic acquisition method, device and system of a carbon quota transaction strategy. BACKGROUND

[0002] With the deepening of the "double carbon" strategy, the power industry, as a key emission control field of the carbon market, its carbon quota transaction mechanism plays a key role in the low-carbon transformation of the industry. The current carbon market adopts the "baseline method + industry adjustment coefficient" quota allocation method, and its core features are: dynamic correlation: total quota = actual power generation x industry baseline value x adjustment coefficient, forming a rigid link between power generation and carbon quota; intensity control orientation: taking the carbon emission intensity per unit of power generation as the main evaluation index, the national power industry baseline value has been reduced to 0.581 tCO2 / MWh; regional differentiation: different adjustment coefficients (0.8-1.2 interval) are set for different power source structure regions. In the existing carbon market mechanism based on carbon emission intensity, the carbon quota allocation of power generation enterprises is directly related to their power generation, and the carbon quota transaction strategy of enterprises needs to consider the uncertainty of future power generation. The main sources of uncertainty of power generation include: power demand side fluctuation, power source structure change and policy regulation factors. Among them, the power demand side fluctuation involves economic cycle influence, seasonal characteristics, industrial structure adjustment; the power source structure change involves the increase of new energy penetration rate, the expansion of cross-provincial transaction and extreme climate events.

[0003] However, power generation enterprises are difficult to fully consider the dynamic impact of unit output uncertainty on carbon quota output, resulting in dynamic imbalance of carbon quota supply and demand and deviation of transaction strategy from the optimal path. SUMMARY

[0004] In view of the above defects or improvement needs of the prior art, the present application provides a dynamic acquisition method, device and system of a carbon quota transaction strategy, which aims to solve the technical problem of mismatch between traditional static quota transaction decision and dynamic operation scene of the power system.

[0005] To achieve the above-mentioned purpose, according to one aspect of the present application, a dynamic acquisition method of a carbon quota transaction strategy is provided, comprising: S1: judging whether a thermal power unit belongs to the supply side or the demand side ; S2: if the thermal power unit belongs to the supply side , then the following steps are executed to acquire a carbon quota transaction strategy including daily carbon transaction total and daily declaration price; Step A: calculating the total carbon quota supply of the thermal power unit the carbon quota transaction reference amount on the mth day ; Step B: calculate the cumulative error between the total carbon quota expected to be traded in the number of trading days completed in the year and the total carbon quota actually traded; distribute the cumulative error according to the future carbon quota demand to obtain the carbon quota transaction reference amount of the thermal power unit on the mth day the carbon quota reporting correction component on the mth day ; Step C: superimpose the carbon quota transaction reference amount of the thermal power unit the carbon quota transaction reference amount on the mth day and the carbon quota reporting correction component on the mth day to obtain the carbon market transaction amount of the thermal power unit on the mth day the carbon market transaction amount on the mth day ; Step D: set the carbon market reporting price of the thermal power unit to 0 on the mth day.

[0006] Further, the step A comprises: calculating the carbon quota transaction reference amount of the thermal power unit the carbon quota transaction reference amount on the mth day ; ; wherein, the actual carbon quota production of the thermal power unit on the mth day, the predicted annual carbon quota supply of the thermal power unit on the mth day, the predicted carbon quota demand of the system on the ith day, N m the total number of days in a year.

[0007] Further, the step A comprises: calculating the carbon quota transaction reference amount of the thermal power unit the predicted annual carbon quota supply of the thermal power unit on the mth day; ; wherein, the actual carbon quota production of the thermal power unit on the ith day, the predicted carbon quota supply of the thermal power unit on the ith day; the correction coefficient of the thermal power unit on the mth day, determined according to the predicted production and the actual production on the historical date.

[0008] Further, the correction coefficient of the thermal power unit on the mth day is expressed as: ; wherein, is a set maximum correction coefficient, is a set minimum correction coefficient.

[0009] Further, the step B of allocating the accumulated error according to the future carbon quota demand quantity to obtain the carbon quota reporting quantity of the thermal power unit the carbon quota reporting correction component of the thermal power unit on the mth day , comprising: determining the carbon quota reporting quantity of the thermal power unit the carbon quota reporting correction component of the thermal power unit on the mth day ; ; wherein, is the accumulated error of the thermal power unit on the mth day, is the predicted carbon quota demand quantity of the system on the mth day, is the predicted carbon quota demand quantity of the system on the ith day, N m is the total number of days in a year.

[0010] Further, the step B of calculating the accumulated error between the total carbon quota expected to be traded in the completed trading days in a year and the total carbon quota actually traded in the year comprises: calculating the accumulated error by using the following formula ; ; is the total carbon quota expected to be traded in the first m days of the completed trading days in a year, ; is the total carbon quota actually traded in the ith day, is the total carbon quota actually traded in the ith day, is the predicted annual carbon quota supply quantity of the thermal power unit on the mth day.

[0011] Further, the S1 further comprises: for the demand side thermal power unit , setting the carbon quota reporting quantity of the thermal power unit on the mth day as the corresponding carbon quota demand quantity, and setting the corresponding reporting price as the carbon opportunity cost of the spot market.

[0012] Further, the carbon quota reporting quantity of the thermal power unit on the mth day is set by using the following formula :​ ; The thermal power unit is set by using the following formula The declared price on the mth day : ;

[0013] Wherein, is the set of time points contained in the mth day, is the approved reference carbon emission rate of the thermal power unit to which the thermal power unit belongs, is the actual carbon emission rate of the thermal power unit , is the actual carbon emission rate of the thermal power unit , is the spot market output of the thermal power unit at the time point, is the time interval of the adjacent time scale of the spot market, is the spot market node clearing price of the thermal power unit at the time point , is the unit spot market declared price of the thermal power unit at the time point , is the fuel marginal cost of the thermal power unit .

[0014] According to another aspect of the present application, a dynamic acquisition device for a carbon quota transaction strategy is provided, comprising: a judgment module for judging whether the thermal power unit belongs to the supply side or the demand side ; an acquisition module for acquiring a carbon quota transaction strategy including the total amount of carbon quota transaction on the day and the declared price on the day if the thermal power unit belongs to the supply side ; Step A: calculating the carbon quota transaction reference amount of the thermal power unit on the mth day according to the annual predicted carbon quota supply amount and the daily carbon quota demand amount ; Step B: calculating the cumulative error between the total amount of expected transaction carbon quota in the annual completed transaction days and the total amount of carbon quota in the actual transaction; and distributing the cumulative error according to the future carbon quota demand amount to obtain the carbon quota declared correction component of the thermal power unit on the mth day ; Step C: acquiring the carbon quota transaction strategy of the thermal power unit Carbon allowance trading benchmark amount on day m Correction of carbon allowance declaration on day m Superimposed as the thermal power unit Carbon market trading volume on day m ; Step D: The thermal power unit The carbon market bid price is set to 0 on day m.

[0015] According to another aspect of the present invention, a dynamic acquisition system for carbon quota trading strategies is provided, including a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and the processor executes the computer program to implement the steps of the dynamic acquisition method for carbon quota trading strategies.

[0016] In summary, compared with the prior art, the above-described technical solutions conceived by this invention can achieve the following beneficial effects: (1) This invention provides a method for dynamically acquiring carbon quota trading strategies, if the thermal power unit Belongs to the supply side Calculate the total amount of carbon allowances expected to be traded out of the total number of trading days completed throughout the year. The cumulative error between the actual carbon allowances traded and the total amount traded; allocating the cumulative error according to future carbon allowance demand to thermal power units. Carbon allowance declaration correction on day m ; thermal power units Benchmark amount of carbon allowance trading on day m Correction of carbon allowance declaration on day m Superimposed as thermal power units Carbon market trading volume on day m This method integrates factors such as carbon quota production forecasts by market participants, actual carbon quota trading errors, and uneven temporal distribution of carbon quota production to optimize the carbon quota trading volume of market participants in the power industry. This helps market participants formulate scientific and reasonable carbon quota trading strategies to achieve dynamic optimization of carbon quota allocation, solving the technical problem of mismatch between traditional static quota trading decisions and dynamic power system operation scenarios. Furthermore, it enables the carbon market to efficiently explore the real-time value of carbon emissions, promote the low-carbon transformation of the power industry and the stable operation of the carbon market, and enhance the synergistic benefits between carbon quotas and the power market.

[0017] (2) This plan utilizes Calculate the thermal power unit Carbon allowance trading benchmark amount on day m This approach takes into account the future carbon quota demand of demand-side units and the carbon quota production of the current units. Its advantage is that it can formulate a benchmark trading volume declaration strategy based on carbon quota demand and the supply capacity of the current units.

[0018] (3) This plan utilizes Calculate the thermal power unit The forecast of the annual carbon allowance supply on day m; this method takes into account the actual carbon allowance production at past times and the expected carbon allowance production at future times throughout the year. The advantage is that the annual unit carbon allowance production capacity is dynamically calculated through a daily rolling method, which reduces the forecast error.

[0019] (4) This plan utilizes Correction coefficient This method takes into account the discrepancy between the actual and planned carbon quota production at past times throughout the year and corrects the predicted production for the future. The advantage is that by correcting the predicted value for the future time with the known error at past times, the future prediction is more accurate.

[0020] (5) This plan utilizes Determine the thermal power unit Carbon allowance declaration correction on day m This method takes into account the discrepancy between the planned and actual carbon quota trading volumes in the past and allocates the discrepancy proportionally to the future trading plan. The advantage is that it can control the error between the actual and planned trading volumes in the past during the daily rolling process.

[0021] (6) This plan addresses the demand side. thermal power units The thermal power unit The carbon allowance declaration quantity on day m is set as the corresponding carbon allowance demand quantity, and its corresponding declaration price is set as the carbon opportunity cost in the spot market. This method takes into account the relationship between the power generation revenue of demand-side units in the spot market and the carbon emission cost generated by power generation. The advantage is that it can characterize the theoretically optimal bidding strategy of demand-side thermal power units in the carbon allowance market under a perfectly competitive market environment through carbon opportunity cost. Attached Figure Description

[0022] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of the dynamic acquisition method for carbon quota trading strategies provided in Embodiment 1 of the present invention.

[0023] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the daily carbon quota demand value of thermal power units throughout the year provided in Embodiment 1 of the present invention.

[0024] Figure 3This is a schematic diagram of the actual and predicted values ​​of the daily carbon quota supply for thermal power units throughout the year, provided in Embodiment 1 of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0025] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of this invention clearer, the invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative and not intended to limit the invention. Furthermore, the technical features involved in the various embodiments of this invention described below can be combined with each other as long as they do not conflict with each other.

[0026] Example 1 like Figure 1 As shown, this embodiment provides a method for dynamically acquiring carbon quota trading strategies, including: steps 1-3.

[0027] Step 1: For any thermal power unit To determine the thermal power unit Belongs to the supply side Demand side In a carbon market based on carbon emission intensity, the market rules regarding thermal power units... The approved benchmark carbon emission rate for the type of thermal power unit is thermal power units The actual carbon emission rate Then, based on the relationship between its actual carbon emission rate and the benchmark carbon emission rate, it can be determined whether the thermal power unit is a carbon quota supplier or a carbon quota consumer: ; in This represents the set of thermal power units belonging to the users. This refers to the set of thermal power units supplied by the supplier.

[0028] Step 2: For demand-side thermal power units, their daily carbon allowance costs can be reflected in the electricity spot market. Therefore, for the first... The daily carbon allowance declaration volume represents the carbon allowance demand of thermal power units on that day, and the declaration price represents the carbon opportunity cost in the spot market. The carbon opportunity cost is the profit that a thermal power unit can obtain by generating one unit of carbon allowance demand in the spot market.

[0029] ; ; in, For the thermal power unit Carbon allowance declaration amount on day m For the first The set of moments contained in the heavens. for thermal power units At the time of the spot market output, is the time interval of the adjacent time scale of the spot market. for thermal power units On the day of the carbon quota declaration price, for thermal power units At the time of the spot market node clearing price, for the spot market declaration price of thermal power units, for the fuel marginal cost of thermal power units.

[0030] Step 3: For the supply side thermal power units, the marginal cost of generating carbon quota is 0, so the marginal price of carbon market declaration is: ; The carbon quota declaration amount of the daily carbon market needs to integrate the future thermal power output level, the total annual carbon quota supply capacity, etc. The total annual supply is reasonably allocated to each day for trading. Assuming that the thermal power unit is predicted according to the future output level estimation and historical output, the thermal power unit The carbon quota supply amount of the mth day is predicted. According to the installed capacity and load level of the power system, the system demand for carbon quota on the mth day is predicted. The supply side should allocate the total annual supply according to the daily carbon quota demand, and correct the daily declaration amount according to the actual carbon quota production of the thermal power unit in the first m days and the actual carbon quota trading amount . The specific declaration amount optimization method is: Step 3.1: First, on the trading day , calculate the total annual predicted carbon quota supply: ; Where is the correction coefficient, which is determined according to the predicted production and actual production of the historical date, and is limited between the maximum value and the minimum value ; .

[0031] Then, according to the total annual quota supply and the daily carbon quota demand, the carbon quota trading reference amount of the thermal power unit on the mth day can be calculated: ; Finally, the total amount of carbon quota expected to be traded in the number of completed trading days in a year is: ; Step 3.2: First, calculate the total amount of expected carbon quota of the desired transaction in the number of completed transactions throughout the year The error between the actual transaction amount and the expected transaction amount is: ; Then, distribute the cumulative error according to the future carbon quota demand, and the carbon quota declaration correction component can be obtained: ; Step 3.3: Calculate the optimized carbon market transaction amount of the supply side on the day, which is the benchmark component plus the correction component: ; For example, assume that there is a carbon quota demand thermal power unit G1 and two carbon quota supply thermal power units G2 and G3 in a simplified power system. According to the operation of the power system throughout the year, the daily predicted carbon quota demand is as shown in Figure 2 .

[0032] In the power system, when the installed capacity structure and load are determined, the total supply and demand of carbon quota of the entire system are basically unchanged, so it is assumed that the actual carbon quota demand of G1 is the same as the prediction every day, and the total supply of carbon quota of G2 and G3 is the same as the prediction every day, but there is an error in the supply amount of each thermal power unit. The actual production supply amount of the thermal power unit every day is as shown in Figure 3 .

[0033] To compare the proposed carbon quota declaration strategy, the control variable method is used to set three simulation scenarios. The demand side thermal power unit declares the demand amount according to the daily quota, and the supply side thermal power unit adopts different declaration schemes. Scenario 1 assumes that the supply side declares according to the daily carbon quota production amount, denoted as A1; Scenario 2 assumes that the supply side thermal power unit is allocated according to the total predicted annual production amount, and declares according to the benchmark component , denoted as A2; Scenario 3 assumes that the supply side declares according to the proposed method, considering the benchmark component and the correction component, denoted as A3.

[0034] Assume that in the carbon market transaction, the transaction amount is the smaller one of the declared demand and the declared supply, and the transaction electricity amount of the supply thermal power units G2 and G3 is evenly divided according to the declared electricity amount. In the three scenarios, the annual carbon market transaction results of the three thermal power units are shown in Table 1, where a positive value indicates production and purchase, and a negative value indicates demand and sale; .

[0035] Under scenario A1, both the supply thermal power unit and the demand thermal power unit declare according to the actual carbon quota production and demand of the day, resulting in a daily demand and supply mismatch, ultimately making the supply thermal power unit and the demand thermal power unit fail to completely trade the carbon quota. Under scenario A2, the supply thermal power unit allocates daily trading volume according to the carbon quota demand based on the predicted annual carbon quota production, which can enable the demand side to completely trade. However, due to errors in carbon quota prediction, there are more cases of over-selling and under-selling of carbon quota among the supply side thermal power units. Under scenario A3, the supply side thermal power unit arranges daily quota declaration according to the method of the present application, and the actual total trading volume of carbon quota is basically the same as the actual total production, which is beneficial to the trading of power generation enterprises and the operation of the carbon market.

[0036] Embodiment 2 The embodiment provides a kind of dynamic acquisition device of carbon quota trading strategy, including: determination module, for judging thermal power unit Belongs to supply side Or demand side ; acquisition module, for if the thermal power unit Belongs to supply side Then execute the following steps to obtain the carbon quota trading strategy including daily carbon trading total amount and daily declaration price; Step A: according to the predicted annual carbon quota supply and daily carbon quota demand, the carbon quota trading reference amount of the thermal power unit In the m day Is calculated. Step B: calculate the cumulative error between the total amount of carbon quota expected to trade in the number of days of completed transaction in a year and the total amount of carbon quota actually traded;The cumulative error is allocated according to future carbon quota demand to obtain the carbon quota declaration correction component of the thermal power unit In the m day ; Step C: superimpose the carbon quota trading reference amount of the thermal power unit In the m day With the carbon quota declaration correction component of the thermal power unit In the m day As the carbon market trading volume of the thermal power unit In the m day ; Step D: set the carbon market declaration price of the thermal power unit In the m day to 0.

[0037] Embodiment 3 The embodiment provides a dynamic acquisition system of a carbon quota transaction strategy, comprising a memory and a processor, the memory stores a computer program, and the processor implements steps of the dynamic acquisition method of the carbon quota transaction strategy when executing the computer program.

[0038] Those skilled in the art can understand that the above description is only the preferred embodiment of the present application, and is not used to limit the present application, and any modification, equivalent replacement and improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present application should be included in the protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for dynamically obtaining a carbon quota trading strategy, characterized in that, Comprising: S1: judge thermal power generating unit belongs to supply side or demand side ; S2: if the thermal power generating unit belongs to the supply side , the following steps are performed to obtain a carbon quota trading strategy including the total amount of carbon trading on the day and the carbon trading price on the day; Step A: calculating the thermal power unit according to the annual predicted carbon quota supply and daily carbon quota demand Carbon quota transaction reference amount on the mth day ; Step B: calculate the cumulative error between the total amount of carbon quota of expected transaction in the completed transaction days of the whole year and the total amount of carbon quota in the actual transaction; distribute the cumulative error according to the future carbon quota demand to obtain the carbon quota demand of the thermal power unit in the future Carbon quota declaration correction component on the mth day ; Step C: the thermal power unit Carbon quota trade reference amount on the mth day Carbon quota declaration correction amount on the mth day Superimposed as the thermal power unit Carbon market trade amount on the mth day ; Step D: The thermal power unit The carbon market declaration price is set to 0 on the mth day.

2. The method of claim 1, wherein the carbon quota transaction strategy is dynamically acquired based on the carbon quota transaction strategy database. The step A comprises: calculating the thermal power generating unit by using the following formula The carbon quota transaction reference amount on the mth day ; ； wherein, is the predicted annual carbon quota supply amount of the thermal power unit on the mth day, is the predicted annual carbon quota supply amount of the thermal power unit on the mth day, is the predicted carbon quota demand amount of the system on the mth day, is the predicted carbon quota demand amount of the system on the ith day, N m is the total number of days in a year.

3. The method of claim 2, wherein the carbon quota transaction strategy is dynamically acquired based on the carbon quota transaction strategy database. The step A further comprises: calculating the thermal power generating unit by using the following formula The predicted annual carbon quota supply amount on the mth day; ； wherein, is the thermal power generating unit is the actual carbon quota production amount of the thermal power generating unit on the i-th day, is the thermal power generating unit is the predicted carbon quota supply amount of the thermal power generating unit on the i-th day; is the thermal power generating unit is the correction coefficient of the m-th day, determined according to the predicted production amount and the actual production amount of the historical date.

4. The method of claim 3, wherein the carbon quota transaction strategy is dynamically acquired based on the carbon quota transaction strategy database. The thermal power generating unit The correction coefficient on the mth day The expression is: ； wherein is a set maximum correction factor, is a set minimum correction factor.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein the carbon quota trading strategy is dynamically acquired based on a carbon quota trading strategy database. The step B is to allocate the accumulated error according to the future carbon quota demand to obtain the thermal power unit The carbon quota declaration correction component on the mth day , comprising: determining the thermal power unit The carbon quota declaration correction component on the mth day ; ； wherein, for the thermal power generating unit cumulative error on the mth day, is the predicted carbon quota demand of the system on the mth day, is the predicted carbon quota demand of the system on the ith day, N m is the total number of days in a year.

6. The method of claim 5, wherein the carbon quota transaction strategy is dynamically acquired based on the carbon quota transaction strategy database. The step B of calculating the cumulative error between the total amount of carbon quota of expected transaction in the total number of transaction days completed in the whole year and the total amount of carbon quota in the actual transaction comprises: calculating the cumulative error by using the following formula ; ； for the thermal power generating unit Total amount of expected carbon quota for trading in the m days before the total number of trading days completed in the year: ； for the thermal power generating unit total amount of carbon quota of actual transaction on the i-th day, for the thermal power generating unit predicted total amount of carbon quota supply for the whole year on the m-th day.

7. The method of claim 1, wherein the carbon quota trading strategy is dynamically acquired based on a carbon quota trading strategy database. Following S1, it also includes: for the demand side. thermal power units The thermal power unit The carbon allowance declaration quantity on day m is set as the corresponding carbon allowance demand quantity, and its corresponding declaration price is set as the carbon opportunity cost in the spot market.

8. The method for dynamically obtaining carbon quota transaction strategy according to claim 7, characterized in that, The thermal power generating unit is set by using the following formula Carbon quota declaration amount on the mth day : ； The thermal power generating unit is set by using the following formula The declared price on the mth day : ； in For the first The set of times contained in a day For thermal power units The approved benchmark carbon emission rate for the type of generating unit. For thermal power units The actual carbon emission rate, For the thermal power unit exist The spot market plays a crucial role in this process. It is the time interval between adjacent time scales in the spot market. For the thermal power unit At any moment The spot market clearing price at key points, For the thermal power unit At any moment The spot market declared price of the generator sets, For the thermal power unit The marginal cost of fuel.

9. A device for dynamically obtaining a carbon quota trading strategy, characterized in that, Comprising: A judging module is used for judging the thermal power generating unit belongs to the supply side or the demand side ; The acquisition module is configured to acquire the carbon quota transaction strategy including the total amount of carbon transaction of the day and the declared price of the day if the thermal power generating unit belongs to the supply side ; Step A: calculating the thermal power unit according to the annual predicted carbon quota supply and daily carbon quota demand Carbon quota transaction reference amount on the mth day ; Step B: calculate the cumulative error between the total amount of carbon quota of expected transaction in the completed transaction days of the whole year and the total amount of carbon quota in the actual transaction; distribute the cumulative error according to the future carbon quota demand to obtain the carbon quota demand of the thermal power unit in the future Carbon quota declaration correction component on the mth day ; Step C: the thermal power unit the carbon quota transaction reference amount on the mth day the carbon quota declaration correction amount on the mth day superimposed as the thermal power unit the carbon market transaction amount on the mth day ; Step D: The thermal power unit The carbon market declaration price is set to 0 on the mth day.

10. A dynamic acquisition system for carbon quota trading strategies, comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, characterized in that, The processor implements the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 8 when executing the computer program.

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