A dual-track method for assessing unbalanced cost

Abstract

The application discloses a kind of double-track unbalanced cost evaluation methods, comprising: S1, the time period that needs to be measured is resolved with day unit, carries out single-day scene analysis: according to power grid historical data, various power consumption scenes are statistically analyzed, and the power consumption scene includes: nuclear power scene, hydropower scene, external power scene, thermal power scene, wind and light new energy scene;S2, the double-track unbalanced cost corresponding to various scenes in single day is calculated;S3, the double-track unbalanced cost under various scenes is statistically analyzed, and the evaluation result is obtained.The application evaluates the unbalanced cost generated by double-track, solves the problem that the unbalanced cost scale of power spot market double-track cannot be evaluated, makes the unbalanced cost be expected, can think out solution in advance, and can provide reference support for spot power market construction.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of power market, and particularly relates to a double-track imbalance cost evaluation method. BACKGROUND

[0002] At present, since the construction of the electricity spot market in China is still in the initial stage, the marketization of electricity is limited, some priority electricity users continue to implement the catalog electricity price, some priority renewable energy power sources and some power grid safety power sources continue to implement the benchmark on-grid price, therefore, the double-track mechanism will exist in the power market in China for a period of time.

[0003] In the electricity spot pilot in China, the market includes two types of electricity of planning nature and market nature. Influenced by the mismatch of priority use electricity scale and priority use curve, different scales of double-track imbalance cost are generated in each pilot. At present, the research and invention of the double-track imbalance cost mainly focuses on how to calculate and how to allocate the imbalance cost after the imbalance cost is generated.

[0004] Under the background of increasing proportion of new energy installed capacity, the existing technology cannot evaluate the imbalance cost before the market is developed, so that the solution can only be proposed after the imbalance cost appears, and a longer time is spent in the whole process of solving the imbalance cost, the imbalance cost cannot be estimated in advance, and the corresponding solution cannot be thought out in advance. SUMMARY

[0005] The present application provides a double-track imbalance cost evaluation method to overcome the above problems.

[0006] The present application comprises the following steps:

[0007] S1, decompose the period to be calculated into daily units for single-day scenario analysis: according to the historical data of the power grid, statistical analysis is performed on various electricity use scenarios, including: nuclear power scenario, hydropower scenario, external power scenario, thermal power scenario, wind and solar new energy scenario;

[0008] S2, calculate the double-track imbalance cost corresponding to each scenario in a single day;

[0009] S3, statistically analyze the double-track imbalance cost under each scenario in a single day, calculate the double-track imbalance cost of the period to be calculated, and obtain the evaluation result.

[0010] Further, the method S1 comprises the following contents:

[0011] S11, analyze the load type to obtain marketization load value and non-marketization load value;

[0012] S12, according to the marketization load value and the non-marketization load value, analyzing the power generation part in the nuclear power scene, the hydropower scene, the external power scene and the thermal power scene;

[0013] S13, according to the marketization load value and the non-marketization load value, analyzing the wind-solar new energy power generation scene.

[0014] Further, S11 includes the following steps:

[0015] S111, determining the large load day and the small load day in the measured time period, determining the market load and the non-market load according to the value of the large load day and the small load day, and the large load day and the small load day are determined according to historical data;

[0016] S112, calculating the marketization load:

[0017]

[0018] Wherein, γ is the marketization proportion of the load side; L d is the total power consumption of the user side in a day, that is, the total power consumption of the full load in a day; is the marketization load of t period of a day, and the marketization load of t period of a day is the average value of the daily marketization load is the unit value of the reference value; T is the total number of periods in a day; is the marketization load of t period of a scene; t is the t period in a day;

[0019] S113, calculating the non-marketization load:

[0020]

[0021] Wherein, is the total load of the society in t period of a day; is the non-marketization load in t period of a day.

[0022] Further, S12 includes the following steps:

[0023] S121, nuclear power generation scene analysis: the period to be measured is divided into days, and each day after decomposition is divided into multiple periods; according to the annual utilization hours data of nuclear power unit, the output of nuclear power unit is calculated according to the proportion of annual utilization hours and annual total hours and the installed capacity of nuclear power unit, and the calculation formula of the output of nuclear power unit in each period is:

[0024]

[0025] Wherein, C n is the installed capacity of the system nuclear power unit; T n is the annual utilization hours of the system nuclear power unit; Ty is the total number of hours in a year, and is 8760 hours for a common year and 8784 hours for a leap year; is the power output of the nuclear power unit at the tth time period of the day; T is the total number of time periods in a day; and t is the tth time period in a day;

[0026] S122, hydropower generation scene analysis: the time period to be calculated is divided into days, and each day is divided into multiple time periods; the hydropower includes the wet season and the dry season, and the power output of the hydropower unit in the dry season is 0; in the wet season, according to the utilization hours of the nuclear power unit in the month in which the time period to be calculated is located, the power output of the hydropower unit is multiplied by the proportion of the monthly utilization hours to the total monthly hours and the installed capacity of the hydropower unit to obtain the power output of the hydropower unit at each time period, and the calculation formula of the power output of the hydropower unit at each time period is:

[0027]

[0028] C h is the installed capacity of the hydropower unit of the system; T h is the utilization hours of the hydropower unit of the system in the month; T m is the total number of hours in the month, and the value is the number of days in the month in which the time period to be calculated is located; is the power output of the hydropower unit at the tth time period of the day; T is the total number of time periods in a day; and t is the tth time period in a day;

[0029] S123, external power scene analysis: the external power selects a large external power day scene and a small external power day scene, the large external power day scene and the small external power day scene are determined according to historical data, the external power scene is analyzed to obtain external power load data; and the analysis method is set according to experience;

[0030] S124, simulation of the priority power generation part of the thermal power unit: the priority power generation part of the thermal power unit is classified according to whether it is in the non-heating period, the initial and final period of the heating period, or the middle period of the heating period, analyzed according to the minimum operation mode in the corresponding period, and the priority power generation load data of the thermal power unit is calculated; and the analysis method is set according to experience.

[0031] Further, S13 includes:

[0032] S131, processing of historical data, that is, normalization processing of the new energy power output curve in the past two years to obtain wind and light power generation normalized data;

[0033] S132 decomposes the period to be calculated into daily units, and further decomposes each day into multiple periods; selects the wind and light power generation unitization data of the evaluated period and two adjacent periods in the past two years, multiplies the wind and light system installed capacity in the year of the period to be calculated, to obtain wind and light power generation scenario data, and the calculation formula of the wind and light power generation scenario data is:

[0034]

[0035]

[0036] wherein, C w is the system wind power installed capacity in the year; is the t-period wind power generation output unit value; is the t-period wind power generation output under a certain scenario; C pv is the system photovoltaic power installed capacity in the year; is the t-period photovoltaic power generation output unit value; is the t-period photovoltaic power generation output; T is the total number of periods in a day; t is the t-period in a day.

[0037] Further, S2 comprises:

[0038] S21, deviation electric quantity calculation: calculating the deviation electric quantity according to the priority power generation and the priority power consumption:

[0039] The calculation formula of the t-period power generation quantity is:

[0040]

[0041] wherein, is the t-period external power output; is the t-period power generation output of the priority power generation part in the thermal power unit; is the t-period nuclear power unit power generation output in the day; is the t-period hydropower unit power generation output in the day is the t-period wind power generation output unit value; is the t-period wind power generation output;

[0042] The calculation formula of the t-period power consumption quantity is:

[0043]

[0044] The calculation formula of the deviation electric quantity is:

[0045]

[0046] wherein, is the t-period non-market priority power generation quantity; is the non-market priority electricity quantity in the t period; AQ t is the deviation electricity quantity in the t period; T is the total number of periods in a day; t is the t period in a day;

[0047] S22, period deviation electricity price analysis: obtain the spot electricity price of each period according to the ratio of net load to installed capacity of the regulated thermal power unit, that is, the supply-demand ratio; calculate the deviation electricity price by subtracting the benchmark electricity price from the spot electricity price;

[0048] S23, respectively calculate the imbalance cost of each period under each scenario:

[0049] F t ub = AQ t AP t t = 1 … T (10)

[0050] Wherein, AQ t is the deviation electricity quantity in the t period; AP t is the deviation electricity price in the t period; F t ub is the dual-track imbalance cost in the t period; the imbalance cost is positive when it means surplus, and negative when it means deficit.

[0051] Further, S22 includes:

[0052] S221, calculate the supply-demand ratio of each period:

[0053]

[0054] Wherein, is the system net load in the t period; C th is the installed capacity of the system regulated thermal power unit; R t is the supply-demand ratio of the t period under a certain scenario;

[0055] The calculation formula of the system net load in the t period is:

[0056]

[0057] Wherein, is the nuclear power unit generation output in the t period of the day; is the hydropower unit generation output in the t period of the day is the wind power generation output standard value in the t period; is the wind power generation output in the t period; is the system net load in the t period;

[0058] S222, calculate the relationship between the spot electricity price of each period and the supply-demand ratio:

[0059]

[0060] wherein P t m is the spot electricity price of the t period;

[0061] S223, calculate the deviation electricity price:

[0062] ΔP t = P t m -P t un t = 1…T (14)

[0063] wherein P t un is the unit on-grid benchmark electricity price of the t period; ΔP t is the deviation electricity price of the t period.

[0064] Further, S3 comprises:

[0065] According to the calculation of S2, the imbalance cost of the measured period is evaluated according to the imbalance cost of the double-track system corresponding to various scenes in a single day;

[0066] The calculation formula of the evaluation result of the imbalance cost of the measured period is:

[0067]

[0068] wherein, is the average value of the total imbalance cost of the double-track system calculated under various scenes; M is the number of days of the measured period; is the imbalance cost of the double-track system of the measured period evaluated.

[0069] The present application solves the problem that the imbalance cost of the double-track system of the electricity spot market cannot be evaluated by evaluating the imbalance cost of the double-track system, so that the imbalance cost can be predicted, solutions can be proposed in advance, and reference support can be provided for the construction of the electricity spot market. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0070] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application or the prior art, the drawings needed in the embodiment or prior art description will be briefly introduced. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present application, and those skilled in the art can obtain other drawings according to these drawings without creative labor.

[0071] Figure 1 is the overall technical flowchart of the present application;

[0072] Figure 2 is the wind and light power generation curve of each scene of the present application;

[0073] Figure 3 deviation power for various scenarios of the present application;

[0074] Figure 4 spot power price for 1000 yuan / ton coal price scenario under various power use scenarios of the present application;

[0075] Figure 5 imbalance fee for each period under various scenarios of the present application;

[0076] Figure 6 probability distribution of imbalance fee under the day double-track system of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0077] In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present application clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be described clearly and completely below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are some but not all of the embodiments of the present application. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by a person of ordinary skill in the art without creative work fall within the protection scope of the present application.

[0078] As shown in Figure 1 a double-track system imbalance fee evaluation method, the specific steps are as follows:

[0079] S1, the period to be calculated is divided into daily units for single-day scenario analysis: according to the historical data of the power grid, various power use scenarios are statistically analyzed, including nuclear power scenarios, hydropower scenarios, external power scenarios, thermal power scenarios, and wind-solar new energy scenarios.

[0080] Specifically, according to the historical data of the power grid, the data is statistically analyzed to determine the number of double-track system imbalance fee calculation scenarios for each natural month. The number of new energy power generation scenarios is 184, the number of load scenarios is 2, the number of external power scenarios is 2, and the total number of scenarios is 736.

[0081] System load simulation:

[0082] S111, the total load of the society in different days in a month changes little compared with the changes of new energy and other power sources on the power generation side, so the load scenario can be simulated by large load days and small load days.

[0083] S112, marketization load simulation. In the early stage of the construction of the electricity spot market, the proportion of marketization of the load side is limited. Here, it is considered to be released at a fixed proportion. At the same time, the marketization users on the load side are mostly large industrial users. In order to make the marketization load curve reflect the electricity consumption characteristics of large industrial users, the method of multiplying the large industrial load standardization curve and the marketization electricity is used to simulate the marketization load curve. The large industrial load standardization curve is obtained by analyzing historical data.

[0084] Specifically, for example: residential electricity does not need to go to the market to talk about price to buy electricity at any time, which belongs to non-market load. Therefore, the market load refers to the electricity load of users participating in the market, and the non-market load refers to the load that does not participate in the market. The imbalance cost calculated by the method is the imbalance cost generated in a system that simultaneously exists market load and non-market load

[0085]

[0086] Wherein, γ is the marketization proportion of the load side; L d is the total electricity consumption of the user side in a day, that is, the total load of the day; is the marketization load of the t period of the day, which is the average value of the marketization load of the day is the unit value of the reference value; T is the total number of periods of the day; is the marketization load of the period of the day.

[0087] S113, non-market load simulation. The total load minus the marketization load is the non-market load.

[0088]

[0089] Wherein, is the total load of the society in the t period of the day; is the non-market load of the t period of the day.

[0090] The total load of the system, the marketization load and the non-market load under the simulation of the two scenarios are shown in Table 1.

[0091] Table 1 Total load of the system, marketization load and non-market load under two scenarios in a day (unit: 10,000 kW)

[0092]

[0093]

[0094] S12, other priority generation curve simulation except new energy, including nuclear power, hydropower, external power and priority generation part of thermal power:

[0095] S121, nuclear power generation curve simulation. According to the annual nuclear power unit utilization hours, without considering the unit maintenance and the like, the power generation output is multiplied by the proportion of annual utilization hours and annual total hours and the nuclear power unit installed capacity, that is, the output of the nuclear power unit in each period.

[0096]

[0097] Wherein, C n is the installed capacity of the system nuclear power unit; T n is the annual utilization hours of the system nuclear power unit; T y is the annual hours, generally 8760 hours for a year and 8784 hours for a leap year; is the power generation output of the nuclear power unit in the t period of the day.

[0098] S122, water power generation curve simulation. The water power generation curve needs to consider the wet season and the dry season. The power generation output can be 0 output in the dry season; in the wet season, the power generation output is multiplied by the proportion of monthly utilization hours and monthly total hours and the installed capacity of the water power unit, according to the monthly nuclear power unit utilization hours, without considering the unit maintenance and the like, that is, the output of the water power unit in each period of the month.

[0099]

[0100] Wherein, C h is the installed capacity of the system water power unit; T h is the monthly utilization hours of the system water power unit; T m is the monthly hours, which can be 28, 29, 30 or 31; is the power generation output of the water power unit in the t period of the day.

[0101] S123, external power curve simulation. The external power of each day in a natural month does not differ much, so the large external power day and the small external power day can be selected.

[0102] Specifically, the external power refers to the power from other provinces, and the simulation is to select the maximum and minimum two days according to the historical data.

[0103] S124, simulation of the priority power generation part of the thermal power unit: the priority power generation part of the thermal power unit is classified according to the non-heating period, the initial and final period of heating, and the middle period of heating in the measured time period, and the priority power generation load data of the thermal power unit is calculated according to the minimum operation mode in the corresponding period; the analysis method is set according to experience.

[0104] Specifically, the minimum operation mode is generally issued by the power grid or the energy bureau of the development and reform commission, and the minimum output of each thermal power unit is regulated to ensure the safety of the power system. During simulation, it is simulated according to the requirements in the file.

[0105] The priority power generation part of the simulated nuclear power, hydropower and thermal power is shown in Table 2, and the external power under the two simulated scenarios is shown in Table 3.

[0106] Table 2 Priority power generation part of simulated nuclear power, hydropower and thermal power (unit: ten thousand kilowatts)

[0107]

[0108] Table 3 External power under two simulated scenarios (unit: ten thousand kilowatts)

[0109]

[0110] S125, wind and light new energy power generation curve simulation. Wind power and photovoltaic power generation have strong volatility, so as many scenarios as possible should be simulated to simulate the new energy power generation scenarios that may occur in actual operation:

[0111] S126, process the historical data to obtain the wind and light power generation standardization curve of the system in recent years.

[0112] S127, select the wind and light power generation standardization curves of the months evaluated in recent years and the two adjacent months, and multiply them by the wind and light system installed capacity of the evaluated month of the year, to obtain the wind and light power generation curve under various scenarios.

[0113]

[0114]

[0115] Among them, C w is the system wind power installed capacity of the year; is the wind power generation output standard value at time t under a certain scenario; is the wind power generation output at time t under a certain scenario; C pv is the system photovoltaic power generation installed capacity of the year; is the photovoltaic power generation output standard value at time t under a certain scenario; is the photovoltaic power generation output at time t under a certain scenario.

[0116] Among them, the wind and light power generation curves of various scenarios are shown in Figure 2 .

[0117] S2, calculate the double-track imbalance cost corresponding to various scenarios in a single day:

[0118] S21, each period deviation electric quantity calculation. The double-track system imbalance cost is the imbalance cost caused by the mismatch of priority power generation and priority power consumption, so the deviation electric quantity of each period should be calculated first. The deviation electric quantity is obtained by the difference between priority power generation and priority power consumption load.

[0119]

[0120] Wherein, is the non-market priority power generation of a certain scene at t period; is the non-market priority power consumption of a certain scene at t period; ΔQ t is the deviation electric quantity of a certain scene at t period.

[0121] Specifically, the market power generation and market power consumption are inconsistent at the settlement, and this part of the electric quantity difference is the deviation electric quantity.

[0122] The non-market priority power generation of a certain scene at t period can be obtained by the following formula:

[0123]

[0124] Wherein, is the external power output of a certain scene at t period; is the priority power generation part of the thermal power unit in a certain scene at t period.

[0125] The non-market priority power consumption of a certain scene at t period can be obtained by the following formula:

[0126]

[0127] Wherein the deviation electric quantity of various scenes is shown in the following table. Figure 3

[0128] S22, each period spot price simulation. The spot price of each period in a certain scene is simulated according to the ratio of net load to installed capacity of unified regulation thermal power unit, that is, supply-demand ratio.

[0129] S221, the supply-demand ratio of each period in a certain scene can be obtained by the following formula:

[0130]

[0131] Wherein, is the system net load at t period in a certain scene; λ is the system thermal power unit standby rate; C th is the installed capacity of system unified regulation thermal power unit; R t is the supply-demand ratio of a certain scene at t period.

[0132] The net load can be obtained by the following formula:

[0133] ​

[0134] S222, the relationship between spot electricity price and supply-demand ratio in each period under certain scenario is as follows:

[0135]

[0136] wherein, P t m is the spot electricity price in period t under certain scenario.

[0137] The spot electricity price under 1000 yuan / ton coal price scenario in various power generation and consumption scenarios is shown in Table 2. Figure 4

[0138] S223, the deviation electricity price can be calculated by the following formula:

[0139] ΔP t = P t m - P t un t = 1…T (13)

[0140] wherein, P t un is the unit on-grid benchmark electricity price in period t under certain scenario; ΔP t is the deviation electricity price in period t under certain scenario.

[0141] S23, the imbalance cost in each period under certain scenario can be calculated by the following formula:

[0142] F t ub = ΔQ t ΔP t t = 1…T (14)

[0143] The imbalance cost is positive when it represents surplus, and is negative when it represents deficit.

[0144] The imbalance cost in each period under 1000 yuan / ton coal price scenario in various power generation and consumption scenarios is shown in Table 3. Figure 5

[0145] S3, the imbalance cost of the whole month is evaluated according to the imbalance cost of all scenarios.

[0146] The monthly imbalance cost evaluation result can be calculated by the following formula:

[0147]

[0148] wherein, is the daily two-track imbalance cost expectation calculated under various scenarios; M is the number of days in the month; is the two-track imbalance cost of the month evaluated.​​

[0149] The probability distribution of the imbalance cost of the dual-track system is as shown in the following table. Figure 6

[0150] The mean value is-6.79 million yuan, so the imbalance cost of the dual-track system in this month is estimated to be-203.7 million yuan.

[0151] Beneficial effects:

[0152] The present application solves the problem that the imbalance cost of the dual-track system in the power spot market cannot be evaluated by evaluating the imbalance cost generated by the dual-track system, so that the imbalance cost can be predicted, solutions can be thought out in advance, and reference support can be provided for the construction of the spot power market.

[0153] Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, but not to limit them; although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that: they can still modify the technical solutions recorded in the foregoing embodiments, or make equivalent replacement for part or all of the technical features; and these modifications or replacements do not make the essence of the corresponding technical solutions deviate from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application.​

Claims

1. A double-track method of assessing unbalanced cost, characterized by, Comprise: S1, the period to be measured is divided into a day unit, and a single-day scene analysis is performed: according to historical data of the power grid, various power consumption scenes are statistically analyzed, including: nuclear power scene, hydropower scene, external power scene, thermal power scene, wind and light new energy scene; Statistical analysis of various power consumption scenes includes the following contents: S11, the load type is analyzed to obtain market load values and non-market load values, including the following steps: S111, determine the large load day and the small load day in the measured time period, and determine the market load and the non-market load according to the values of the large load day and the small load day, wherein the large load day and the small load day are determined according to historical data; S112, calculate the market load: (1) wherein, is the marketization proportion of the load side; is the total power consumption of the user side within a day, i.e., the total power consumption of the full load within a day; is the marketization proportion of the load side; is the marketization load of the time period; is the unit value of the reference value; is the total number of time periods in a day; is the marketization load of the time period in a certain scenario; is the marketization load of the time period; is the tth time period in a day; S113, calculate the non-market load: (2) wherein, is the total load of the society for the day is the total load of the society for the day is the total load of the society for the day is the total load of the society for the day S12, according to the market load value and the non-market load value, analyze the power generation part in the nuclear power scene, the hydropower scene, the external power scene and the thermal power scene; S13, according to the market load value and the non-market load value, analyze the wind and light new energy power generation scene; S2, calculate the double-track imbalance cost corresponding to various scenes in a single day, including: S21, deviation power calculation: calculate the deviation power according to the priority power generation and the priority power consumption: The formula for calculating the period generation amount is: (3) wherein, is the period of time; is the period of time; is the period of time; is the period of time; is the period of time; is the period of time; The formula for calculating electricity consumption during a given time period is: (4) The calculation formula of the deviation power is: (5) wherein, is the non-market prioritized generation amount of the time period; is the non-market prioritized consumption amount of the time period; is the deviation amount of the time period; is is the t th time period in a day; S22, analysis of the deviation power price of each period: obtain the spot power price of each period according to the ratio of net load to the installed capacity of the regulated thermal power unit, that is, the supply-demand ratio; calculate the deviation power price by subtracting the benchmark power price from the spot power price; S23, calculate the imbalance cost of each period under each scene respectively: (6) wherein, is the deviation of the electricity price for the period; is the deviation of the electricity price for the period; is the bi-lateral imbalance cost for the period; the imbalance cost is positive for a surplus and negative for a deficit. S3, statistically analyze the double-track imbalance cost under various scenes in a single day, calculate the double-track imbalance cost of the period to be measured, and obtain the evaluation result, including: According to the double-track imbalance cost corresponding to various scenes in a single day calculated in S2, evaluate the imbalance cost of the measured period; The calculation formula of the evaluation result of the imbalance cost of the measured period is: (7) wherein, is the average of the total daily two-track imbalance cost calculated for various scenarios; is the number of days of the measured period; is the two-track imbalance cost of the measured period as assessed.

2. A dual track imbalance cost assessment method as claimed in claim 1, wherein, S12 includes the following steps: S121, nuclear power generation scene analysis: the period to be measured is divided into a day unit, and each day after the division is divided into multiple periods; according to the annual nuclear power unit utilization hour data, the nuclear power unit power generation output is multiplied by the proportion of annual utilization hours to annual total hours and the installed capacity of the nuclear power unit, to calculate the output of the nuclear power unit in each period, and the calculation formula of the output of the nuclear power unit in each period is: (8) wherein, is the installed capacity of the nuclear power unit of the system; is the annual utilization hours of the nuclear power unit of the system; is the annual hours, generally 8760 hours for a common year and 8784 hours for a leap year; is the day is the power output of the nuclear power unit in the time period; is the total number of time periods in a day; is the tth time period in a day; S122, hydropower generation scene analysis: the period to be measured is divided into a day unit, and each day after the division is divided into multiple periods; hydropower includes wet season and dry season, and the hydropower unit power generation output is 0 in the dry season; in the wet season, according to the nuclear power unit utilization hour data of the measured period, the hydropower unit power generation output is multiplied by the proportion of monthly utilization hours to monthly total hours and the installed capacity of the hydropower unit, to obtain the output of the hydropower unit in each period, and the calculation formula of the output of the hydropower unit in each period is: (9) wherein, is the installed capacity of the system hydroelectric generating units; is the monthly utilization hours of the system hydroelectric generating units; is the monthly hours, the value of which is the number of days in the month in which the measured time period falls; is the daily time period hydroelectric generating output; is the total number of time periods in a day; is the tthtime period in a day; S123, analysis of external power supply scenarios: the external power supply selects large external power supply day scenarios and small external power supply day scenarios, which are determined according to historical data, analyzes the external power supply scenarios, and obtains external power supply load data; the analysis method is set according to experience; S124, simulation of priority power generation part in thermal power generating unit: the priority power generation part in the thermal power generating unit is classified according to the non-heating period, the initial and final period of heating, and the middle period of heating in the measured time period, analyzed according to the minimum operation mode in the corresponding period, and the priority power generation load data in the thermal power generating unit is calculated; the analysis method is set according to experience.

3. A dual track imbalance cost assessment method as claimed in claim 1, wherein, The S13 comprises: S131, processing historical data, that is, normalizing the new energy output curve in the past two years to obtain wind and light power generation normalized data; S132, the time period to be calculated is divided into days, and each day after the division is divided into multiple time periods; the wind and light power generation normalized data of the evaluated time period and the two adjacent time periods in the past two years are selected, multiplied by the wind and light system installed capacity of the measured time period in the same year, to obtain wind and light power generation scenario data, and the calculation formula of the wind and light power generation scenario data is: (10) (11) wherein, is the annual system wind power installed capacity; is is the period wind power generation output unit value; is the annual system wind power installed capacity under a certain scenario; is the period wind power generation output; is the annual system photovoltaic power installed capacity; is is the period photovoltaic power generation output unit value; is is the period photovoltaic power generation output; is the total number of periods in a day; is the t-th period in a day.

4. A dual track imbalance cost assessment method as claimed in claim 1, wherein, The S22 comprises: S221, calculating the supply-demand ratio of each time period: (12) wherein, is period system net load; is the system dispatch capacity of thermal power units; is the system net load under a certain scenario period supply-demand ratio; The formula for calculating the system net load for a period is: (13) wherein, is the daily period nuclear power unit power generation; is the daily period hydropower unit power generation is the period wind power generation standard value; is the period wind power generation; is the period system net load; S222, calculating the relationship between the spot electricity price and the supply-demand ratio of each time period: (14) wherein is spot electricity price for the period; S223, calculating the deviation price: (15) wherein, is a unit commitment on-grid price for the period; is a deviation price for the period.

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