Early warning method, system and estimation method based on fusion terminal power quality detection

Abstract

The present invention relates to an early warning method, system and estimation method based on fusion terminal power quality detection. An early warning method based on fusion terminal power quality detection includes the following steps: S11. Real-time collection of power consumption information; S12. Extraction of the real-time value of the three-phase voltage in the power consumption information; S13. Acquisition of the historical value of the three-phase voltage, prediction through the historical value of the three-phase voltage, and obtaining the estimated value of the three-phase voltage within an estimation period; S14. Determination of whether all the actual values ​​of the three-phase voltage and the estimated values ​​of the three-phase voltage within an estimation period are within a preset voltage range; S15. Establishment of a voltage monitoring table according to the determination result; S16. Calculation of the voltage qualification rate through the voltage monitoring table, and lookup in a preset early warning table according to the voltage qualification rate to obtain the corresponding early warning response. The present invention predicts the future voltage situation, and decides whether to issue an early warning based on the result of the judgment, so that the substation can prepare in advance.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power quality of power systems, and in particular to an early warning method based on fusion terminal power quality detection, an early warning system based on fusion terminal power quality detection, and an estimation method based on fusion terminal power quality detection. Background Art

[0002] Power quality is not only related to the safe and economic operation of power grid enterprises, but also affects the safe operation and product quality of users. The access of a large number of distributed energy sources (such as wind power and solar power generation) will further deteriorate power quality. Continuous monitoring and analysis and evaluation of power quality information is a prerequisite for discovering power quality problems and improving power quality levels.

[0003] For the convenience of monitoring, monitoring equipment on the grid side or the user side will be used to monitor multiple locations simultaneously, and the required electricity consumption information will be obtained through the fusion terminal. However, in the actual monitoring process, although the fusion terminal can obtain user information at multiple locations, collect user information and analyze the voltage situation, and then decide whether to adjust the voltage based on the voltage situation, this method has a long cycle. Not only will it miss the best adjustment period, but the time given for regulation is very tight. If feedback cannot be obtained in time, the regulation period will be missed, which will cause great losses to users. Summary of the invention

[0004] Based on this, it is necessary to directly analyze whether the voltage situation is normal and then make adjustments to avoid long cycle time and affect regulation. This paper provides an early warning method based on fusion terminal power quality detection, an early warning system based on fusion terminal power quality detection, and an estimation method based on fusion terminal power quality detection.

[0005] To achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:

[0006] An early warning method based on fusion terminal power quality detection includes the following steps:

[0007] S11. Real-time collection of electricity consumption information;

[0008] S12. Extracting the real-time value of the three-phase voltage in the power consumption information;

[0009] S13. Obtain the historical values ​​of the three-phase voltage, and make predictions based on the historical values ​​of the three-phase voltage to obtain the estimated values ​​of the three-phase voltage within an estimation period. The method for obtaining the estimated values ​​of the three-phase voltage is as follows:

[0010] S131. Taking the time corresponding to the real-time value of the three-phase voltage as a node, presetting a historical period, and obtaining all historical three-phase voltage values ​​within the historical period;

[0011] S132. Fitting the historical three-phase voltage values ​​and their corresponding time points to obtain a fitting relationship;

[0012] S133. Divide the fitting relationship into multiple segments by year;

[0013] S134. Place all segments at the same reference point for error analysis to obtain a change comparison table representing the mapping relationship between time and change parameters;

[0014] S135. Preset an estimation cycle with the node as the starting point, and calculate all three-phase voltage estimation values ​​within an estimation cycle according to the change comparison table;

[0015] S14. Determine whether all three-phase voltage actual values ​​and three-phase voltage estimated values ​​within an estimation cycle are within a preset voltage range, and make the following decision:

[0016] S141. When the voltage is greater than the upper threshold of the voltage interval, the time t of exceeding the upper threshold is counted. 1 ;

[0017] S142. When the voltage is less than the lower limit threshold of the voltage interval, the lower limit crossing time t is counted. 2 ;

[0018] S143. When the voltage is within the range of the voltage interval, count the qualified time t in the voltage interval 3 ;

[0019] S15. Establish a voltage monitoring table to characterize the time t of exceeding the upper limit 1 , crossing lower limit time t 2 , qualified time t 3 The mapping relationship between them;

[0020] S16. Calculate the voltage qualification rate through the voltage monitoring table, and look up the voltage qualification rate in a preset warning table to obtain a corresponding warning response, wherein the warning table is a relationship table between voltage qualification rate intervals and the warning levels they represent.

[0021] Furthermore, the calculation method of the voltage qualification rate is as follows:

[0022] Get the time t when the upper limit is exceeded 1 , crossing lower limit time t 2 , qualified time t 3 ;

[0023] Calculate the voltage qualification rate P u =t 3 / t 1 +t 2 +t3 .

[0024] Furthermore, the method for extracting the electricity usage information includes a direct selection method or a recursive feature elimination method.

[0025] Furthermore, the historical period is at least 10 times the estimated period.

[0026] Furthermore, the method for calculating the three-phase voltage estimation value comprises the following steps:

[0027] Get the time point required for calculation within an estimation cycle;

[0028] Finding the change parameter corresponding to the time point in the change comparison table;

[0029] The three-phase voltage real-time value and the change parameter are added together to obtain the three-phase voltage estimated value.

[0030] The present invention also includes an estimation method based on fusion terminal power quality detection, which includes the following steps:

[0031] S21. Real-time collection of electricity consumption information;

[0032] S22. Extracting the real-time value of the three-phase voltage in the power consumption information;

[0033] S23. Obtain the historical values ​​of the three-phase voltage, and make predictions based on the historical values ​​of the three-phase voltage to obtain the estimated values ​​of the three-phase voltage. The method for obtaining the estimated values ​​of the three-phase voltage is as follows:

[0034] S231. Taking the time corresponding to the real-time value of the three-phase voltage as a node, presetting a historical period, and obtaining all historical three-phase voltage values ​​within the historical period;

[0035] S232. Fitting the historical three-phase voltage values ​​and their corresponding time points to obtain a fitting relationship;

[0036] S233. Divide the fitting relationship into multiple segments by year;

[0037] S234. Place all segments at the same reference point for error analysis to obtain a change comparison table that represents the mapping relationship between time and change parameters;

[0038] S235. Preset an estimation cycle with the node as the starting point, and calculate all three-phase voltage estimation values ​​within an estimation cycle according to the change comparison table;

[0039] S24. Extract the maximum and minimum values ​​of the three-phase voltage history values, and judge all the three-phase voltage estimation values ​​within an estimation period according to the time growth direction to obtain an estimation result. The judgment method of the three-phase voltage estimation value is as follows:

[0040] S241. Determine whether the three-phase voltage estimated value is greater than the maximum value;

[0041] S242. If yes, mark the three-phase voltage estimation value;

[0042] S243. Otherwise, determine whether the three-phase voltage estimated value is less than the minimum value;

[0043] S244. If yes, mark the three-phase voltage estimation value;

[0044] S245. Otherwise, the next three-phase voltage estimation value is obtained along the time increasing direction, and the step is returned to continue the judgment. When the end of an estimation cycle is reached, it is determined whether the number of markers is greater than the preset value;

[0045] S246. If yes, it is determined that the voltage of an estimated cycle is abnormal;

[0046] S247. Otherwise, it is determined that the voltage of one estimation cycle is normal.

[0047] Furthermore, the method for extracting the electricity usage information includes a direct selection method or a recursive feature elimination method.

[0048] Furthermore, the historical period is at least 10 times the estimated period.

[0049] Furthermore, the method for calculating the three-phase voltage estimation value comprises the following steps:

[0050] Get the time point required for calculation within an estimation cycle;

[0051] Finding the change parameter corresponding to the time point in the change comparison table;

[0052] The three-phase voltage real-time value and the change parameter are added together to obtain the three-phase voltage estimated value.

[0053] The present invention also includes an early warning system based on fusion terminal power quality detection, which adopts the aforementioned early warning method based on fusion terminal power quality detection, and the early warning system includes:

[0054] A data collection module, which is used to collect electricity consumption information in real time;

[0055] A data extraction module, which is used to extract the real-time value of the three-phase voltage in the power consumption information;

[0056] A three-phase voltage estimated value calculation module, which is used to obtain three-phase voltage historical values, and make predictions based on the three-phase voltage historical values ​​to obtain three-phase voltage estimated values ​​within an estimation period;

[0057] The data judgment module is used to judge whether all the actual values ​​of the three-phase voltage and the estimated values ​​of the three-phase voltage in an estimation cycle are within a preset voltage interval, and make the following decisions: when it is greater than the upper limit threshold of the voltage interval, the upper limit crossing time t that is greater than the upper limit threshold is counted 1 When the voltage is less than the lower limit threshold of the voltage interval, the lower limit crossing time t is calculated. 2 When it is within the voltage range, the qualified time t in the voltage range is counted. 3 ;

[0058] The voltage monitoring table calculation module is used to establish a voltage monitoring table to characterize the time t of crossing the upper limit 1 , crossing lower limit time t 2 , qualified time t 3 The mapping relationship between them;

[0059] The early warning response judgment module is used to calculate the voltage qualification rate through the voltage monitoring table, and obtain the corresponding early warning response by looking up the voltage qualification rate in a preset early warning table. The early warning table is a relationship table between the voltage qualification rate interval and the early warning level it represents.

[0060] The technical solution provided by the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0061] 1. The present invention predicts the future voltage conditions and decides whether to issue an early warning based on the results of the judgment, so that the substation can prepare in advance. When the voltage condition is abnormal, it can immediately make preparations for regulation and make timely and effective adjustments, thereby reducing user losses and avoiding missing the regulation period.

[0062] 2. The present invention can estimate the future voltage conditions, determine whether there are any abnormal conditions based on the estimated conditions, and provide timely feedback to the substation to remind relevant staff so that they can prepare in advance and make timely adjustments once an abnormality occurs. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0063] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of an early warning method based on fusion terminal power quality detection of the present invention;

[0064] Figure 2 Based on Figure 1 Schematic diagram of the fusion terminal;

[0065] Figure 3 Based on Figure 1 Voltage over-limit flow chart;

[0066] Figure 4 Based on Figure 1 Voltage maximum / minimum value update flow chart;

[0067] Figure 5 The present invention is a flowchart of an estimation method based on fusion terminal power quality detection. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0068] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0069] Example 1

[0070] The early warning method based on integrated terminal power quality detection of the present invention solves the problem in the prior art that directly analyzing the voltage situation to see if it is normal before making adjustments causes a long cycle time and affects regulation. The present invention predicts the future voltage situation and determines whether to issue an early warning based on the judgment result, so that the substation can prepare in advance, so that when the voltage situation is abnormal, it can immediately make regulation preparations, make timely and effective adjustments, reduce user losses, and avoid missing the regulation period.

[0071] like Figure 1 As shown, the early warning method of this embodiment mainly includes the following steps:

[0072] S11. Real-time collection of electricity consumption information;

[0073] S12. Extracting the real-time value of the three-phase voltage in the power consumption information;

[0074] S13. Obtaining historical values ​​of three-phase voltage, and predicting through the historical values ​​of three-phase voltage to obtain estimated values ​​of three-phase voltage within an estimation cycle;

[0075] S14. Determine whether all three-phase voltage actual values ​​and three-phase voltage estimated values ​​within an estimation cycle are within a preset voltage range;

[0076] S15. Establish a voltage monitoring table based on the determination results;

[0077] S16. Calculate the voltage qualification rate through the voltage monitoring table, and look up the voltage qualification rate in a preset warning table to obtain a corresponding warning response, wherein the warning table is a relationship table between voltage qualification rate intervals and the warning levels they represent.

[0078] In step S11, for the collection of electricity consumption information, it is necessary to install an electric meter and other equipment at the user end. Since the user ends are distributed in various places, such as Figure 2As shown, a concentrator is used to collect data from user-end devices distributed in various locations, and the collected data is summarized to the substation fusion terminal. The substation fusion terminal collects electricity consumption information of user data. The data collection of the concentrator and the substation fusion terminal adopts HPLC channel.

[0079] In step S12, the real-time value of the three-phase voltage in the power consumption information is extracted, and a direct selection method or a recursive feature elimination method can be used.

[0080] In step S13, the method for obtaining the three-phase voltage estimation value is as follows: taking the time corresponding to the real-time value of the three-phase voltage as a node, presetting a historical period, and obtaining all historical three-phase voltage values ​​within the historical period; fitting the historical three-phase voltage values ​​and their corresponding time points to obtain a fitting relationship; dividing the fitting relationship into multiple segments by year; placing all the segments at the same reference point for error analysis to obtain a change comparison table to characterize the mapping relationship between time and change parameters; presetting an estimation period with the node as the starting point, and calculating all three-phase voltage estimation values ​​within an estimation period according to the change comparison table.

[0081] The historical cycle consists of at least ten years. The time span of the historical cycle determines the accuracy of the change comparison table. The estimated cycle is much smaller than the historical cycle. The setting of the estimated cycle is based on actual conditions.

[0082] The method for calculating the estimated value of the three-phase voltage includes the following steps: obtaining the time point required for calculation within an estimation cycle; finding the change parameter corresponding to the time point in the change comparison table; adding the real-time value of the three-phase voltage and the change parameter to calculate the estimated value of the three-phase voltage. The time interval of the time point can be 1s or other intervals, and the corresponding three-phase voltage estimated value is found according to the corresponding time point, and these points are fitted into a curve to facilitate the subsequent statistical time.

[0083] In step S14, the decision is as follows: when the voltage is greater than the upper threshold of the voltage interval, the upper limit crossing time t 1 When the voltage is less than the lower limit threshold of the voltage interval, the lower limit crossing time t is calculated. 2 When it is within the voltage range, the qualified time t in the voltage range is counted. 3 The total value of the three time periods is the estimation period.

[0084] In step S15, the voltage monitoring table indicates the time t 1 , crossing lower limit time t 2 , qualified time t 3 The voltage monitoring table can be sent to the user end, so that the user end can know the voltage monitoring status.

[0085] In step S16, the voltage qualification rate is determined by P u =t 3 / t 1 +t 2 +t 3 Calculation. The warning table has multiple warning levels, and the priority is set according to the warning level. For example, the third warning level corresponds to sending warning signals to some users, the second warning level adds users to send warning signals on the basis of the third level, and the first warning level adds users to send warning signals on the basis of the second level. It can also be that the third warning level sends a warning signal to turn on the alarm light, the second warning level sends a warning signal to sound the alarm, and the first warning level sends a warning signal to turn on the alarm light and sound the alarm.

[0086] The fusion terminal uses MQTT, and realizes data interaction by cooperating with the power quality system and the procurement system. The procurement system sends the collected data information to MQTT, which stores the data information. The power quality system obtains the data information of the procurement system through MQTT, analyzes the data information, and sends the analysis results to MQTT. The procurement system can obtain the analysis results of the power monitoring system through MQTT. In actual use, the power quality system contains multiple APPs, and the procurement system also contains multiple APPs, which are convenient for different users to use. This method is applied to the quality monitoring system to assist it in predicting the data of future cycles, so that users can prepare in advance. The specific process of judging whether all the actual values ​​of the three-phase voltage and the estimated values ​​of the three-phase voltage in an estimation cycle are within a preset voltage range is as follows Figure 3 shown.

[0087] In fact, the power quality system can calculate and count multiple values, such as the function of calculating the daily qualified rate of the transformer area voltage; the function of counting the daily cumulative time of the transformer area / branch three-phase voltage exceeding the upper and lower limits; the function of calculating the monthly qualified rate of the transformer area three-phase voltage; the function of counting the monthly cumulative time of the transformer area three-phase voltage exceeding the upper and lower limits; the function of calculating the daily maximum / minimum value of the transformer area / branch three-phase voltage; the function of calculating the daily average value of the transformer area three-phase voltage; the function of calculating the daily average value of the transformer area three-phase voltage harmonics; the function of calculating the daily / monthly average value of the transformer area three-phase voltage / current imbalance; the function of counting the daily / monthly cumulative time of the transformer area three-phase voltage / current imbalance exceeding the limit; the function of calculating the daily / monthly cumulative time of the transformer area power factor segment 1 / 2 / 3; the function of counting the daily qualified time of the branch three-phase voltage; and the function of calculating the branch three-phase voltage deviation. Count and calculate various values ​​according to actual needs to facilitate the knowledge of users.

[0088] It is necessary to set permissions in the power quality monitoring system and the exchange system, and set priority permissions according to user levels. Different users will obtain different permissions using the APP, which also avoids the leakage of some data.

[0089] When actually uploading data, some data can be deleted, and there is no need to upload it in real time. For example, for the data predicted by the power quality monitoring system, if it is at a safe level, it can be uploaded at intervals or not uploaded. If it is at a warning level, it must be uploaded immediately. When a predicted cycle has passed, the historical predicted data can be deleted, thereby reducing some unnecessary data occupation that affects the operation of the system and reducing unnecessary energy waste.

[0090] This method can not only predict the three-phase voltage, but also predict other data as long as adaptive adjustments are made.

[0091] When obtaining the actual value of the three-phase voltage, it can also be compared with the historical value of the three-phase voltage. When it is greater than the historical maximum value of the three-phase voltage or less than the historical minimum value of the three-phase voltage, the historical maximum value of the three-phase voltage or less than the historical minimum value of the three-phase voltage is updated. The specific process is as follows: Figure 4 shown.

[0092] Based on the aforementioned early warning method based on fusion terminal power quality detection, this embodiment also includes an early warning system based on fusion terminal power quality detection, and the early warning system includes a data acquisition module, a data extraction module, a three-phase voltage estimation value calculation module, a data judgment module, a voltage monitoring table calculation module, and an early warning response judgment module.

[0093] Specifically, it is a data acquisition module, which is used to collect power consumption information in real time. A data extraction module, which is used to extract the real-time value of the three-phase voltage in the power consumption information. A three-phase voltage estimation value calculation module, which is used to obtain the historical value of the three-phase voltage, and predict the three-phase voltage estimation value within an estimation period through the historical value of the three-phase voltage. A data judgment module, which is used to judge whether all the actual values ​​of the three-phase voltage and the estimated values ​​of the three-phase voltage within an estimation period are within a preset voltage range, and make the following decision: when it is greater than the upper limit threshold of the voltage range, the upper limit crossing time t that is greater than the upper limit threshold is counted 1 When the voltage is less than the lower limit threshold of the voltage interval, the lower limit crossing time t is calculated. 2 When it is within the voltage range, the qualified time t in the voltage range is counted. 3 The voltage monitoring table calculation module is used to establish a voltage monitoring table to characterize the time t 1 , crossing lower limit time t 2 , qualified time t 3The early warning response judgment module is used to calculate the voltage qualification rate through the voltage monitoring table, and obtain the corresponding early warning response by looking up the voltage qualification rate in a preset early warning table, wherein the early warning table is a relationship table between the voltage qualification rate interval and the early warning level it represents.

[0094] The early warning system of this embodiment is applied to the electric energy monitoring system to assist the electric energy monitoring system in estimating the power consumption data of the substation and giving early warnings, so as to facilitate users to prepare in advance and prevent accidents before they happen.

[0095] Example 2

[0096] like Figure 5 As shown, this embodiment provides an estimation method based on fusion terminal power quality detection, and the estimation method mainly includes the following steps:

[0097] S21. Real-time collection of electricity consumption information;

[0098] S22. Extracting the real-time value of the three-phase voltage in the power consumption information;

[0099] S23. Obtain the historical values ​​of the three-phase voltage, make predictions based on the historical values ​​of the three-phase voltage, and obtain the estimated values ​​of the three-phase voltage;

[0100] S24. Extract the maximum value and the minimum value in the three-phase voltage history values, and judge all the three-phase voltage estimation values ​​within an estimation period according to the time growth direction to obtain an estimation result.

[0101] The specific operations adopted in step S21, step S22 and step S23 are the same as those in embodiment 1.

[0102] In step S24, the method for judging the three-phase voltage estimation value is as follows: judge whether the three-phase voltage estimation value is greater than the maximum value; if so, mark the three-phase voltage estimation value; otherwise, judge whether the three-phase voltage estimation value is less than the minimum value; if so, mark the three-phase voltage estimation value; otherwise, obtain the next three-phase voltage estimation value along the time increasing direction and return to the step to continue judging. When reaching the end of an estimation cycle, judge whether the number of marks is greater than the preset value; if so, judge that the voltage of an estimation cycle is abnormal; otherwise, judge that the voltage of an estimation cycle is normal.

[0103] This embodiment makes judgment from the perspective of the maximum value and the minimum value of the three-phase voltage. Since the maximum value and the minimum value of the three-phase voltage themselves are not values ​​within the normal range, when a value greater than the maximum value or less than the minimum value of the three-phase voltage is present within an estimation cycle, and it is not an accidental situation, it means that there is an abnormality in one substation, and the abnormal situation needs to be fed back so that relevant personnel can prepare in advance and prevent the occurrence of abnormalities.

[0104] The technical features of the above-described embodiments may be arbitrarily combined. To make the description concise, not all possible combinations of the technical features in the above-described embodiments are described. However, as long as there is no contradiction in the combination of these technical features, they should be considered to be within the scope of this specification.

[0105] The above-mentioned embodiments only express several implementation methods of the present invention, and the descriptions thereof are relatively specific and detailed, but they cannot be understood as limiting the scope of the invention patent. It should be pointed out that, for ordinary technicians in this field, several variations and improvements can be made without departing from the concept of the present invention, and these all belong to the protection scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the patent of the present invention shall be subject to the attached claims.

Claims

1. An early warning method based on fusion terminal power quality detection, which is used to judge the early warning response according to the power consumption information to remind the substation, characterized in that: The early warning method comprises the following steps: S11. Real-time collection of electricity consumption information; S12. Extracting the real-time value of the three-phase voltage in the power consumption information; S13. Obtain the historical values ​​of the three-phase voltage, and make predictions based on the historical values ​​of the three-phase voltage to obtain the estimated values ​​of the three-phase voltage within an estimation period. The method for obtaining the estimated values ​​of the three-phase voltage is as follows: S131. Taking the time corresponding to the real-time value of the three-phase voltage as a node, presetting a historical period, and obtaining all historical three-phase voltage values ​​within the historical period; S132. Fitting the historical three-phase voltage values ​​and their corresponding time points to obtain a fitting relationship; S133. Divide the fitting relationship into multiple segments by year; S134. Place all segments at the same reference point for error analysis to obtain a change comparison table representing the mapping relationship between time and change parameters; S135. Preset an estimation cycle with the node as the starting point, and calculate all three-phase voltage estimation values ​​within an estimation cycle according to the change comparison table; S14. Determine whether all three-phase voltage actual values ​​and three-phase voltage estimated values ​​within an estimation cycle are within a preset voltage range, and make the following decision: S141. When the voltage is greater than the upper threshold of the voltage interval, the crossing time t1 greater than the upper threshold is counted; S142. When the voltage is less than the lower threshold of the voltage interval, the lower limit crossing time t2 less than the lower threshold is counted; S143. When the voltage is within the range of the voltage interval, counting the qualified time t3 in the voltage interval; S15. Establish a voltage monitoring table to characterize the mapping relationship between the upper limit time t1, the lower limit time t2, and the qualified time t3; S16. Calculate the voltage qualification rate through the voltage monitoring table, and look up the voltage qualification rate in a preset warning table to obtain a corresponding warning response, wherein the warning table is a relationship table between voltage qualification rate intervals and the warning levels they represent.

2. The early warning method based on fusion terminal power quality detection according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The calculation method of the voltage qualification rate is as follows: Get the upper limit time t1, lower limit time t2, and qualified time t3; Calculate the voltage qualification rate P u =t3 / t1+t2+t3.

3. The early warning method based on fusion terminal power quality detection according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The method for extracting the electricity usage information includes a direct selection method or a recursive feature elimination method.

4. The early warning method based on fusion terminal power quality detection according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The historical period is at least 10 times the estimated period.

5. The early warning method based on fusion terminal power quality detection according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The method for calculating the three-phase voltage estimated value comprises the following steps: Get the time point required for calculation within an estimation cycle; Finding the change parameter corresponding to the time point in the change comparison table; The three-phase voltage real-time value and the change parameter are added together to obtain the three-phase voltage estimated value.

6. An estimation method based on fusion terminal power quality detection, which is used to estimate according to power consumption information to inform the station area of ​​the estimation result, characterized in that: S21. Real-time collection of electricity consumption information; S22. Extracting the real-time value of the three-phase voltage in the power consumption information; S23. Obtain the historical values ​​of the three-phase voltage, and make predictions based on the historical values ​​of the three-phase voltage to obtain the estimated values ​​of the three-phase voltage. The method for obtaining the estimated values ​​of the three-phase voltage is as follows: S231. Taking the time corresponding to the real-time value of the three-phase voltage as a node, presetting a historical period, and obtaining all historical three-phase voltage values ​​within the historical period; S232. Fitting the historical three-phase voltage values ​​and their corresponding time points to obtain a fitting relationship; S233. Divide the fitting relationship into multiple segments by year; S234. Place all segments at the same reference point for error analysis to obtain a change comparison table that represents the mapping relationship between time and change parameters; S235. Preset an estimation cycle with the node as the starting point, and calculate all three-phase voltage estimation values ​​within an estimation cycle according to the change comparison table; S24. Extract the maximum and minimum values ​​of the three-phase voltage history values, and judge all the three-phase voltage estimation values ​​within an estimation period according to the time growth direction to obtain an estimation result. The judgment method of the three-phase voltage estimation value is as follows: S241. Determine whether the three-phase voltage estimated value is greater than the maximum value; S242. If yes, mark the three-phase voltage estimation value; S243. Otherwise, determine whether the three-phase voltage estimated value is less than the minimum value; S244. If yes, mark the three-phase voltage estimation value; S245. Otherwise, the next three-phase voltage estimation value is obtained along the time increasing direction and the step is returned to continue the judgment. When the end of an estimation cycle is reached, it is determined whether the number of markers is greater than the preset value; S246. If yes, it is determined that the voltage of an estimated cycle is abnormal; S247. Otherwise, it is determined that the voltage of one estimation cycle is normal.

7. The estimation method based on fusion terminal power quality detection according to claim 6 is characterized in that: The method for extracting the electricity usage information includes a direct selection method or a recursive feature elimination method.

8. The estimation method based on fusion terminal power quality detection according to claim 6 is characterized in that: The historical period is at least 10 times the estimated period.

9. The estimation method based on fusion terminal power quality detection according to claim 6 is characterized in that: The method for calculating the three-phase voltage estimated value comprises the following steps: Get the time point required for calculation within an estimation cycle; Finding the change parameter corresponding to the time point in the change comparison table; The three-phase voltage real-time value and the change parameter are added together to obtain the three-phase voltage estimated value.

10. An early warning system based on fusion terminal power quality detection, which is used to judge the early warning response according to the power consumption information to remind the station area to warn, characterized in that: It adopts the early warning method based on fusion terminal power quality detection as described in any one of claims 1 to 5, and the early warning system includes: A data collection module, which is used to collect electricity consumption information in real time; A data extraction module, which is used to extract the real-time value of the three-phase voltage in the power consumption information; A three-phase voltage estimated value calculation module, which is used to obtain three-phase voltage historical values, and make predictions based on the three-phase voltage historical values ​​to obtain three-phase voltage estimated values ​​within an estimation period; The data judgment module is used to judge whether all the actual values ​​of the three-phase voltage and the estimated values ​​of the three-phase voltage in an estimation cycle are within a preset voltage interval, and make the following decisions: when it is greater than the upper limit threshold of the voltage interval, the upper limit crossing time t1 greater than the upper limit threshold is counted; when it is less than the lower limit threshold of the voltage interval, the lower limit crossing time t2 less than the lower limit threshold is counted; when it is within the range of the voltage interval, the qualified time t3 in the voltage interval is counted; A voltage monitoring table calculation module is used to establish a voltage monitoring table to characterize the mapping relationship between the upper limit time t1, the lower limit time t2, and the qualified time t3; The early warning response judgment module is used to calculate the voltage qualification rate through the voltage monitoring table, and obtain the corresponding early warning response by looking up the voltage qualification rate in a preset early warning table. The early warning table is a relationship table between the voltage qualification rate interval and the early warning level it represents.

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