A Method for Evaluating the Mission Reliability of Equipment Systems Based on the Kill Chain

Abstract

A method for evaluating the mission reliability of an equipment system based on the kill chain. Guided by the new requirements of modern equipment system-based informatized warfare and centered on the research of the mission reliability of the equipment system, in view of the heterogeneous characteristics of the nodes and edges of the equipment system's combat network, a method for simulating and evaluating the mission reliability of the equipment system based on the kill chain and considering dynamic reconfiguration and node repair is proposed. This invention takes into account the combined effects of the combat network dynamic reconfiguration strategy and the node repair strategy, applies theories such as reliability simulation evaluation and heterogeneous networks, conducts research on the modeling of the equipment system's combat network and the simulation evaluation of the combat mission reliability, establishes a method for simulating and evaluating the mission reliability of the equipment system considering dynamic reconfiguration and node repair, better evaluates the reliability level of the equipment system design scheme, effectively analyzes the reliability of the equipment system in completing combat missions under different initial combat networks and different attack strategies, and provides theoretical and technical support for the design and evaluation of the equipment system.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of equipment, and particularly relates to a method for evaluating the mission reliability of an equipment system based on the kill chain. Background Art

[0002] With the increasing informatization level of equipment, more and more high-tech equipment is put into use in modern warfare, which has changed the form of warfare. A wide-ranging and profound technological revolution is underway worldwide. System confrontation based on information systems has become the basic form of modern warfare. Future warfare will no longer be the confrontation of a single service or several services, but the confrontation of an equipment system based on information systems that breaks through service boundaries and integrated joint operations.

[0003] An equipment system is a higher-level system composed of multiple functionally interconnected and interacting equipment systems to complete certain combat missions under a certain strategic guidance. The equipment system realizes the interconnection, interoperability, and mutual operation among equipment through the implementation of integrated combat operations and command, improving the mission reliability and combat capabilities of the combat equipment system. As a comprehensive integrated system, the equipment system has a long development cycle and huge costs.

[0004] The mission reliability of an equipment system refers to the ability of the equipment system to complete the specified functions (missions) under the specified mission profile. The reliability of the equipment system is an important basis for the generation and maintenance of the combat effectiveness of the equipment system. It not only directly affects the combat mode, combat scale, and continuous combat capabilities of the equipment, the exertion and improvement of effectiveness, and the full-life cycle cost of the equipment, but also directly reflects the combat readiness integrity and the success rate of the system in completing combat missions, which has an important impact on the war process. By establishing an effective mission reliability model, the reliability level of the equipment system design scheme can be evaluated, and the reliability of the equipment system in completing missions can be analyzed. The main purpose of the mission reliability model is to discover the weak links of the equipment system, improve the design, reasonably allocate the reliability indicators of each system, and improve the reliability level of the equipment system to meet the reliability requirements of the mission. The mission reliability of the equipment system is directly related to whether the combat mission can be successfully completed, and its reliability modeling research and combat system reliability evaluation have important theoretical and application values.

[0005] In the prior art, some scholars have analyzed the combat capabilities and anti-damage capabilities of the combat network of the equipment system from the perspectives of network connectivity and the kill chain. However, the anti-destruction ability of the combat network cannot reflect the mission reliability (success rate) of the equipment system in the actual combat process, and there are few relevant studies on the evaluation of the combat mission reliability of the existing equipment system. Therefore, the traditional system reliability method cannot effectively solve problems such as the evaluation of the combat mission reliability of the equipment system based on modern information systems. Summary of the Invention

[0006] In order to overcome the deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention provides a simulation evaluation method for the mission reliability of an equipment system considering dynamic reconstruction strategies and node repair strategies. Based on heterogeneous network theory, the evolution law of the reliability of the combat network of the equipment system considering dynamic reconstruction and node repair is studied, and the influence laws of the combat network and reliability indexes of the equipment system are systematically carried out. First, the model is initialized, heterogeneous networks and equipment nodes are proposed, the network is abstracted, and an initial combat network model is constructed; then the model is constrained, and the constraint conditions for influencing equipment nodes and the failure regulations of equipment nodes in the combat network are given; next, the analysis of the mission reliability evaluation indexes of the equipment system is carried out, and the indexes related to the mission reliability of the equipment system are given; finally, the simulation process for evaluating the mission reliability of the equipment system is designed to realize the simulation of the combat network of the equipment system considering dynamic reconstruction and node repair, and analyze the change trend of the mission reliability of the equipment system over time. The present invention can better evaluate the reliability level of the equipment system design scheme and analyze the mission reliability of the equipment system, and has good application prospects.

[0007] The technical solution of the present invention is as follows:

[0008] The method for evaluating the mission reliability of an equipment system based on the kill chain is characterized by including the following steps:

[0009] Step 1: Initialize the model and construct the initial combat network G=(V, E) of the equipment system, where V represents the set of nodes and E represents the set of edges between nodes; the nodes in the entire network include: reconnaissance and detection nodes S i , command and decision-making nodes D i , influencing nodes I i and target nodes T i ;

[0010] Step 2: Determine the number of simulations N, the simulation duration T, and the mission success criterion Ms, and the time step t = 1;

[0011] Step 3: Start the nth simulation, with the initial number of simulations n = 1 and the initial simulation time t = 1;

[0012] Step 3.1: Node failure process:

[0013] Step 3.1.1: Determine the node failure rules in the combat network:

[0014] (1) Reconnaissance and detection nodes S i , command and decision-making nodes D i , influencing nodes I i Nodes fail randomly;

[0015] (2) Target nodes T i Do not fail;

[0016] (3) If a node in the combat network fails, all the connecting edges of this node will fail;

[0017] Step 3.1.2: According to the node failure rule, determine the failure rate λ of reconnaissance and detection nodes S , the failure rate λ of command and decision nodes D , the failure rate λ of influence nodes I ;

[0018] Step 3.1.3: According to the failure rate determined in Step 3-1-2, sample the nodes to determine the failure situation of equipment nodes in the combat network at the current simulation time;

[0019] Step 3.2: Dynamic reconstruction process, find the unfailed nodes of the same type as the failed node in the network, randomly select an unfailed node to replace the function of the failed node, and reconnect the network edges originally connected to the failed node to this unfailed node;

[0020] Step 3.3: Node repair process;

[0021] Step 3.3.1: Determine the repair rate μ of reconnaissance and detection nodes S , the repair rate μ of command and decision nodes D , the repair rate μ of influence nodes I ;

[0022] Step 3.3.2: According to the repair rate determined in Step 3-3-1, sample the nodes to determine the repair situation of failed equipment nodes in the combat network at the current simulation time;

[0023] Step 3.3.3: According to the result of Step 3-3-2, restore the connecting edges of the corresponding repaired nodes in the combat network;

[0024] Step 3.4: Calculate the number of kill chains and effective kill chains and record the current data;

[0025] Step 3.5: Determine the current simulation time t;

[0026] If the current simulation time t has not reached the simulation time T, then go to Step 3.1;

[0027] If the current simulation time t reaches the simulation time T, then go to Step 4;

[0028] Step 4: Judge whether the number of effective kill chains meets the mission success criterion Ms, and record the number of successful combat missions N s ;

[0029] Step 5: Determine the number of times of this simulation n;

[0030] If the current simulation number n does not reach the simulation number N, go to step 3;

[0031] If the current simulation number n reaches the simulation number N, go to step 6;

[0032] Step 6: Record relevant simulation results and determine the equipment system mission reliability R=N based on the simulation results s / N.

[0033] Furthermore, in step 1, the model includes reconnaissance equipment S, decision-making equipment D, influence equipment I and target equipment T, wherein the reconnaissance equipment is used to collect information on enemy targets and battlefields; the decision-making equipment has the functions of information processing and analysis, decision support and control interference entities; the influence equipment is equipment with the purpose of sniping and destroying targets and has the functions of precision strike fire damage and electronic interference; the target equipment is the target in the combat mission, and all enemy equipment is regarded as a target.

[0034] Furthermore, the nodes in the equipment system combat network are:

[0035] V i =[S i D i I i T i ]#(1)

[0036] The links in the equipment system combat network are:

[0037] E={[T→S][S→S][S→D]…[I→T]}#(2)

[0038] According to the connection probability P between nodes in the equipment system combat network SS , P SD , P DI , P IT , P TS , and obtain the initialized equipment system combat network G=(V,E).

[0039] Furthermore, the process of calculating the amount of the kill chain in step 3.4 is:

[0040] Step 3.4.1: Determine the kill chain; the kill chain refers to the link against the enemy target composed of specific functional nodes and edges, denoted as T→S 1 →…→S n →D→I→T, S in the kill chain 1 →…→S n →D represents the transmission and processing relationship of the detected enemy target information in the network of the own equipment system;

[0041] Step 3.4.2: Define the transfer matrix APQ and the reach matrix A PP :

[0042] A PQ is the transition matrix of node type P and node type Q with respect to the network mode P→Q. If there is an edge between node i∈P and node j∈Q, then the element a ij = 1; if there is no edge between node i∈P and node j∈Q, then the element a ij = 0;

[0043] A PJ and A JK are called adjacent transition matrices. The reach node type of A PJ is the same as the start node type of A JK . Through the transition between adjacent transition matrices, A PP = A PJ * A JK *…* A MP , then A PP is called the reach matrix of node type P;

[0044] Step 3.4.3: For the kill chain T→S 1 →…→S n →D→I→T, obtain the reach matrix of the enemy target T in the kill chain TS 1 …S n DIT as follows: For:

[0045]

[0046] Furthermore, obtain the number of kill chains of this type as follows:

[0047]

[0048] where |T| refers to the number of target type nodes.

[0049] Furthermore, the process of determining the number of effective kill chains in Step 3.4 is as follows: For a certain target, if the number of kill chains formed for this target reaches the set threshold, then an effective kill chain is formed for this target; traverse all targets to obtain the number of effective kill chains.

[0050] Furthermore, in Step 4, when the ratio of the number of effective kill chains to the number of enemy target equipment is greater than or equal to Ms, it is determined that the number of effective kill chains meets the mission success criterion Ms, and the mission is successful.

[0051] Invention Effect

[0052] The technical effects of the present invention are as follows: Guided by the new requirements of modern equipment systemized and informatized operations, and with the research on the mission reliability of the equipment system as the core, for the heterogeneous characteristics of the nodes and edges of the equipment system combat network, a simulation evaluation method for the mission reliability of the equipment system based on the kill chain, considering dynamic reconstruction and node repair, is proposed. The present invention takes into account the combined effect of the combat network dynamic reconstruction strategy and the node repair strategy, applies theories such as reliability simulation evaluation and heterogeneous networks, conducts research on the modeling of the equipment system combat network and the simulation evaluation of the combat mission reliability, establishes a simulation evaluation method for the mission reliability of the equipment system considering dynamic reconstruction and node repair, better evaluates the reliability level of the equipment system design scheme, effectively analyzes the reliability of the equipment system to complete combat missions under different initial combat networks and different attack strategies, and provides theoretical and technical support for the design and evaluation of the equipment system.

[0053] As shown in the embodiments of the present invention, when the number of simulation times N = 1000, the simulation time T = 100, and the mission success criterion Ms = 0.6 (that is, destroying or clearing 60% or more of the enemy target equipment in combat is regarded as mission success), the trends of the number of effective kill chains and the mission reliability changing with time are roughly the same. Between the simulation time t = 30 and t = 40, the failed nodes begin to be repaired one after another, and the decline rates of both slow down, and there is a recovery at the simulation time t = 40. At the same time, the success rate of the equipment system combat mission can be monitored and evaluated in real time according to the trend of the mission reliability changing with time. In the embodiments of the present invention, the final mission reliability (success degree) is R = 0.658. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0054] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the method of the present invention.

[0055] Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of the equipment system combat network of the present invention.

[0056] Figure 3 It is the trend of the number of effective kill chains changing with time in the embodiments of the present invention.

[0057] Figure 4 It is the trend of the mission reliability changing with time in the embodiments of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0058] The present invention will be described below in conjunction with specific embodiments:

[0059] Refer to Figures 1 - 4 , the technical solutions adopted by the present invention to solve its technical problems include the following steps:

[0060] Step 1: Model initialization, construct the initialized equipment system combat network G=(V, E);

[0061] Step 1-1: Considering the heterogeneity of nodes and edges in the equipment system, the combat network of the equipment system is defined as a heterogeneous network G = (V, E), where V represents the set of nodes and E represents the set of edges between nodes;

[0062] Step 1-2: Define each node in the combat network of the equipment system as a heterogeneous network node V i , and the nodes in the combat network of the equipment system include reconnaissance and detection nodes S i , command and decision-making nodes D i , influence nodes I i and target nodes T i These four types of network nodes:

[0063] Reconnaissance equipment (S): Reconnaissance equipment is used to collect information on enemy targets and the battlefield. Its main functions are target reconnaissance, intelligence acquisition, and battlefield surveillance.

[0064] Decision-making equipment (D): Decision-making equipment has the functions of information processing and analysis, decision support, and controlling interference entities.

[0065] Influence equipment (I): Influence equipment is aimed at sniping and destroying targets and has specific functions such as precise strike fire damage and electronic interference.

[0066] Target equipment (T): Target equipment is the target in combat missions, and all enemy equipment can be regarded as targets.

[0067] The nodes in the combat network of the equipment system are:

[0068] V i = [S i D i I i T i #(1)

[0069] The connections in the combat network of the equipment system are:

[0070] E = {[T→S][S→S][S→D][D→I][I→T]}#(2)

[0071] Step 1-3: Constraint conditions for influence equipment nodes:

[0072] (1) The influence equipment node I cannot be reused, and each node I i can be connected to at most one target node T i ;

[0073] (2) Each influence node I i can be connected to multiple command and decision-making nodes D i ;

[0074] (3) Influence class node I i and the target class node T i The connection probability between them is the success rate of equipment I i hitting the target T i ;

[0075] Steps 1 - 4: According to the connection probabilities P SS , P SD , P DI , P IT , P TS among the nodes in the equipment system operation network, construct the initial equipment system operation network G=(V, E);

[0076] Step 2: Determine the number of simulations N, the simulation time T, and the mission success criterion Ms, and the time step t = 1;

[0077] Step 3: Start the nth simulation, with the initial number of simulations n = 1 and the initial simulation time t = 1;

[0078] Step 3 - 1: Node failure process;

[0079] Step 3 - 1 - 1: Node failure rules in the operation network:

[0080] (1) Reconnaissance and detection class node S i , command and decision - making class node D i , influence class node I i nodes fail randomly;

[0081] (2) Target class node T i does not fail;

[0082] (3) If a node in the operation network fails, all the connecting edges of this node fail;

[0083] Step 3 - 1 - 2: Determine the failure rate λ S of the reconnaissance and detection class node, the failure rate λ D of the command and decision - making class node, and the failure rate λ I of the influence class node;

[0084] Step 3 - 1 - 3: Use the Monte - Carlo method based on the exponential distribution for sampling to determine the failure situation of the equipment nodes in the operation network at the current moment;

[0085] Step 3 - 1 - 4: According to the results of Step 3 - 1 - 3, remove the connecting edges of the corresponding failed nodes in the operation network;

[0086] Step 3-2: Dynamic reconstruction process. Locate non-failed nodes of the same type as the failed node in the network, randomly select a non-failed node to replace the function of the failed node, and reconnect the network edges originally connected to the failed node to this non-failed node;

[0087] Step 3-3: Node repair process;

[0088] Step 3-3-1: Determine the repair rate μ of reconnaissance and detection nodes S , the repair rate μ of command and decision nodes D , the repair rate μ of influence nodes I ;

[0089] Step 3-3-2: Use the Monte-Carlo method based on the exponential distribution for sampling to determine the repair status of failed equipment nodes in the combat network at the current moment;

[0090] Step 3-3-3: According to the results of Step 3-3-2, restore the connected edges of the corresponding repaired nodes in the combat network;

[0091] Step 3-4: Calculate the number of kill chains and effective kill chains and record the current data;

[0092] Step 3-4-1: Combat network kill chain metrics;

[0093] According to the heterogeneous network theory, the definition and calculation method of the kill chain metrics of the equipment system combat network are given as follows:

[0094] (1) A kill chain refers to a task loop closure mode in which, for a certain type of target, each link element is based on a pre-planned fixed architecture, interdependent, and operates sequentially to produce a linear killing effect on the target;

[0095] (2) In the equipment system combat network, a kill chain represents the complete combat path from reconnaissance to the destruction of the enemy target, and each kill chain represents a combat method for this target;

[0096] (3) In the equipment system combat network, a kill chain refers to a link for the enemy target composed of some specific functional nodes and edges, denoted as T→S 1 →…→S n →D→I→T;

[0097] (4) The S in the kill chain 1 →…→S n →D represents the transmission and processing relationship of the enemy target information detected in the own equipment system network. According to the transmission and processing of reconnaissance information by different equipment, the meaning of the kill chain is different;

[0098] (5) Drawing on the characteristics of matrix calculation, by defining the transition matrix APQ and the reachability matrix A PP , calculate the number of kill chains:

[0099] Transition matrix: A PQ is the transition matrix of node type P and node type Q with respect to the network pattern P→Q. If there is an edge between node i∈P and node j∈Q, then the element a ij = 1. If there is no edge between node i∈P and node j∈Q, then the element a ij = 0;

[0100] Reachability matrix: A PJ and A JK are called adjacent transition matrices. The reachable node type of A PJ is the same as the starting node type of A JK . Through the transitions between adjacent transition matrices, we can obtain A PP = A PJ * A JK *…* A MP , then A PP is called the reachability matrix of node type P;

[0101] According to the transition matrix, the transfer situation of nodes in the kill chain can be obtained, thereby calculating the number of kill chains. For the kill chain T→S 1 →…→S n →D→I→T, we can obtain the reachability matrix of T in the kill chain TS 1 …S n DIT as: As follows:

[0102]

[0103] At this time, the number of kill chains of the target equipment can be obtained As follows:

[0104]

[0105] where the summation is for different types of kill chains.

[0106] Step 3-4-2: Effective kill chain index of the combat network;

[0107] According to the heterogeneous network theory, the definition of the effective kill chain index of the equipment system combat network is given as follows:

[0108] (1) In the equipment system combat network, if the number of kill chains formed for a specific target (i.e., target class node T i ) reaches the set threshold, then an effective kill chain is formed for this target;

[0109] (2) In the combat network of the equipment system, once an effective kill chain for a specific target is formed, it means that the specific target has been successfully destroyed, interfered with, or eliminated in actual combat;

[0110] (3) In the combat network of the equipment system, the maximum value of the effective kill chain is the number of target equipment T;

[0111] (4) Task success criterion: Under the established combat mission planning scheme, the proportion of destroying enemy targets through collaborative detection, collaborative command, and collaborative strike is greater than or equal to Ms;

[0112] (5) When the ratio of the number of effective kill chains to the number of enemy target equipment is greater than or equal to Ms, the task success criterion is met and the task is successful;

[0113] Step 3 - 5: Determine the current simulation time t;

[0114] If the current simulation time t has not reached the simulation time T, then t = t + 1 and go back to Step 3 - 1;

[0115] If the current simulation time t reaches the simulation time T, then go to Step 4;

[0116] Step 4: Judge whether the number of effective kill chains meets the task success criterion Ms, and record the number of successful combat missions N s ;

[0117] Step 5: Determine the current simulation number n;

[0118] If the current simulation number n has not reached the simulation number N, then n = n + 1 and go back to Step 3;

[0119] If the current simulation number n reaches the simulation number N, then go to Step 6;

[0120] Step 6: Calculate the mission reliability (success degree) R of the equipment system = N s / N.

[0121] Next, according to the simulation process, evaluate the mission reliability of the equipment system under the dynamic reconfiguration and node repair strategies.

[0122] (1) Simulation parameter settings

[0123] According to the above simulation algorithm and process, the simulation time is 100 unit times, the number of simulation times is 1000 times, and the specific input parameters of the simulation are set as shown in Table 1.

[0124] Table 1 Simulation parameters of the combat network of the equipment system

[0125]

[0126] (2) Reliability Index and Mission Reliability Analysis of Equipment System

[0127] By calculating the mission reliability index in the combat network, the variation of the number of effective kill chains over time is obtained as shown in Figure 3 ; By calculating the mission reliability (success rate) R = N s / N, the variation of the mission reliability over time is obtained as shown in Figure 4 .

[0128] It can be found that when the number of simulation times N = 1000, the simulation time T = 100, and the mission success criterion Ms = 0.6 (that is, destroying or clearing 60% or more of the enemy's target equipment in combat is regarded as mission success), the variation trends of the number of effective kill chains and the mission reliability over time are roughly the same. In the initial stage, both are relatively stable. They start to decline at the simulation time t = 20. Between the simulation times t = 30 and t = 40, the failed nodes begin to be repaired one after another, and the decline rates of both slow down. And there is a recovery at the simulation time t = 40. In the embodiment of the present invention, the average value of the number of final effective kill chains in 1000 simulations is EKL = 5.992. At the same time, the success rate of the combat mission of the equipment system can be monitored and evaluated in real time according to the variation trend of the mission reliability over time. In the embodiment of the present invention, the final mission reliability (success rate) is R = 0.658.

[0129] According to the mission reliability simulation and evaluation method of the equipment system in the present invention, an example simulation is carried out. The simulation time is 100 unit times, and the number of simulation times is 1000. By changing the mission success criterion Ms, the simulation results of each embodiment are shown in Table 2. It can be found that there is a negative correlation between the mission reliability (success rate) R and the mission success criterion Ms.

[0130] Table 2 Mission Success Criterion Parameters

[0131]

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the mission reliability of an equipment system based on the kill chain, characterized in that, it includes the following steps: Step 1: Initialize the model and construct the initial combat network of the equipment system G = (V, E), where V represents the set of nodes and E represents the set of edges between nodes; the nodes in the entire network include: reconnaissance and detection nodes S i , command and decision-making nodes D i , influence nodes I i and target nodes T i ; Step 2: Determine the number of simulations N, the simulation time T, and the mission success criterion Ms, with the time step t = 1; Step 3: Start the nth simulation, with the initial number of simulations n = 1 and the initial simulation time t = 1; Step 3.1: Node failure process: Step 3.1.1: Determine the node failure rules in the combat network: (1) Reconnaissance and Detection Nodes S i and Command and Decision-making Nodes D i and Influence Nodes I i Nodes fail randomly; (2) Target class node T i Not invalidated; (3) If a node in the combat network fails, all the connecting edges of that node fail; Step 3.1.2: Determine the failure rate λ of the reconnaissance and detection nodes, the failure rate λ of the accusation and decision-making nodes, and the failure rate λ of the impact nodes according to the node failure rules; S the failure rate λ of the accusation and decision-making nodes D the failure rate λ of the impact nodes I ; Step 3.1.3: According to the failure rate determined in Step 3-1-2, sample the nodes to determine the failure situation of the equipment nodes in the combat network at the current simulation time; Step 3.2: Dynamic reconstruction process, find the unfailed nodes of the same type as the failed node in the network, randomly select an unfailed node to replace the function of the failed node, and reconnect the network edges originally connected to the failed node to this unfailed node; Step 3.3: Node repair process; Step 3.3.1: Determine the repair rate μ of the reconnaissance and detection type nodes S , the repair rate μ of the accusation and decision type nodes D , the repair rate μ of the impact type nodes I ; Step 3.3.2: According to the repair rate determined in Step 3-3-1, sample the nodes to determine the repair situation of the failed equipment nodes in the combat network at the current simulation time; Step 3.3.3: According to the result of Step 3-3-2, restore the connecting edges of the corresponding repaired nodes in the combat network; Step 3.4: Calculate the number of kill chains and effective kill chains and record the current data; Step 3.5: Determine the current simulation time t; If the current simulation time t has not reached the simulation time T, then turn to Step 3.1; If the current simulation time t reaches the simulation time T, then turn to Step 4; Step 4: Determine whether the number of effective kill chains meets the mission success criterion Ms, and record the number of successful combat missions N s ; Step 5: Determine the number of simulations n for this time; If the number of simulations n for this time has not reached the number of simulations N, then turn to Step 3; If the number of simulations n for this time reaches the number of simulations N, then turn to Step 6; Step 6: Calculate the mission reliability R of the equipment system = N s / N.

2. A method for evaluating the mission reliability of an equipment system based on the kill chain as described in claim 1, characterized in that, in the said Step 1, the model includes reconnaissance equipment S, decision-making equipment D, influencing equipment I, and target equipment T. Among them, the reconnaissance equipment is used to collect information on enemy targets and the battlefield; the decision-making equipment has the functions of information processing and analysis, decision support, and controlling interference entities. The influencing equipment is equipment aimed at sniping and destroying targets and has functions of precise strike fire damage and electronic interference. The target equipment is the target in the combat mission, and all enemy equipment is regarded as the target.

3. A method for evaluating the mission reliability of an equipment system based on the kill chain as described in claim 2, characterized in that, The nodes in the combat network of the equipment system are: V i = [S i D i I i T i #(1) The connecting edges in the combat network of the equipment system are: E = {[T→S][S→S][S→D]…[I→T]}#(2) According to the connection probabilities \(P\) between nodes in the combat network of the equipment system SS , \(P\) SD , \(P\) DI , \(P\) IT , \(P\) TS , the initial combat network of the equipment system \(G=(V, E)\) is obtained.

4. A method for evaluating the mission reliability of an equipment system based on the kill chain as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The process of calculating the quantity of kill chains in Step 3.4 is: Step 3.4.1: Determine the kill chain; the kill chain refers to the link against the enemy target composed of specific functional nodes and edges, denoted as T→S 1 →…→S n →D→I→T, where S in the kill chain 1 →…→S n →D represents the transfer and processing relationship of the detected enemy target information in the equipment system network of one's own side; Step 3.4.2: Define the transfer matrix A PQ and the reachability matrix A PP : A PQ is the transition matrix of node type P and node type Q with respect to the network pattern P→Q. If there is an edge between node i∈P and node j∈Q, then the element a ij = 1. If there is no edge between node i∈P and node j∈Q, then the element a ij = 0; A PJ and A JK are called adjacent transition matrices. The arrival node type of A PJ is the same as the starting node type of A JK . Through the transitions between adjacent transition matrices, we can obtain A PP = A PJ * A JK * … * A MQ . Then A PP is called the arrival matrix of node type P; Step 3.4.3: For the kill chain T→S 1 →…→S n →D→I→T, obtain the reachability matrix of the enemy target T in the kill chain TS 1 …S n DIT It is as follows: Furthermore, the number of kill chains of this type is obtained. It is: where |T| refers to the number of target type nodes.

5. A method for evaluating the mission reliability of an equipment system based on the kill chain as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The process of determining the number of effective kill chains in step 3.4 is as follows: for a certain target, if the number of kill chains formed for this target reaches the set threshold, an effective kill chain is formed for this target; all targets are traversed to obtain the number of effective kill chains.

6. A method for evaluating the mission reliability of an equipment system based on kill chains as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that in step 4, when the ratio of the number of effective kill chains to the number of enemy target equipment is greater than or equal to Ms, it is determined that the number of effective kill chains meets the mission success criterion Ms, and the mission is successful.

Images