A method for selecting personnel transfer paths based on urban waterlogging disaster scenarios

Abstract

The present invention relates to the field of path selection technology, and discloses a method for selecting a personnel transfer path based on a scenario of urban waterlogging disaster. The method includes performing a flood probability distribution analysis based on historical flood data of a study area, and performing a waterlogging simulation analysis under a multi-combination scenario based on a one-dimensional coupled external flood and waterlogging dynamic model established in the study area; performing a superposition analysis based on the waterlogging simulation analysis results under the multi-combination scenario with the road network data and community population structure data of the study area to determine the number of people to be transferred and the flooded road sections under the multi-combination scenario; performing an accessibility analysis of the transfer and resettlement points based on the number of people to be transferred, the transfer routes, and the supply-demand ratio between the resettlement points; and performing an optimal transfer path selection based on a network analysis model based on the accessibility analysis results of the number of people to be transferred, the flooded road sections, and the transfer and resettlement points under the multi-combination scenario. The present invention realizes the calculation of the optimal solution of the resettlement points and transfer paths of the people under the multi-combination waterlogging disaster scenario.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of path selection, and in particular to a method for selecting a personnel transfer path based on a urban waterlogging disaster scenario. Background Art

[0002] In recent years, under the dual background of increasingly frequent extreme rainfall events and rapid urbanization, urban waterlogging has become more and more serious, and has become one of the main problems affecting the safety of life and property of urban residents, seriously restricting the sustainable development of the social economy. In the process of preventing and responding to waterlogging disasters, it is of great guiding significance to identify waterlogging risk areas in advance and plan the best resettlement points and optimal routes for threatened people to improve the efficiency of people's risk avoidance and transfer. At present, the transfer and resettlement of people in times of disaster is often based on historical experience or subjective conjecture, which is quite arbitrary and blind, which is not conducive to the targeted deployment of relevant work, and may even expand the impact of waterlogging disasters. Summary of the invention

[0003] In view of the above-mentioned deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides a method for selecting a personnel transfer path based on urban waterlogging disaster scenarios.

[0004] In order to achieve the above-mentioned object of the invention, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is:

[0005] A method for selecting a personnel transfer path based on a urban waterlogging disaster scenario comprises the following steps:

[0006] The flood probability distribution analysis was conducted based on the historical flood data of the study area, and the one- and two-dimensional coupled external flood and internal waterlogging dynamic model established in the study area was used to conduct internal waterlogging simulation analysis under multiple combination scenarios in combination with the flood probability distribution analysis results.

[0007] Based on the waterlogging simulation analysis results under multiple combination scenarios, the road network data and community population structure data of the study area are overlaid and analyzed to determine the number of people to be relocated and the flooded road sections under multiple combination scenarios;

[0008] Conduct accessibility analysis of resettlement sites based on the number of people to be relocated, the relocation routes, and the supply-demand ratio between resettlement sites;

[0009] According to the accessibility analysis results of the number of people to be relocated, flooded road sections, and relocation sites under multiple combination scenarios, the optimal relocation path is selected based on the network analysis model.

[0010] Preferably, the flood probability distribution analysis based on the historical flood data of the study area includes:

[0011] According to the historical flood data of the study area, the joint probability distribution of main and tributary floods, internal and external floods, rainstorm floods, and rainstorm waterlogging is constructed using the Copula function, and the probability distribution characteristics of waterlogging events in the study area are calculated.

[0012] As a preferred method, a one- and two-dimensional coupled external flood and internal waterlogging dynamic model established in the study area is used to conduct internal waterlogging simulation analysis under multiple combination scenarios in combination with the flood probability distribution analysis results, including:

[0013] Based on the results of flood probability distribution analysis, construct waterlogging disaster plans for waterlogging inundation range, water depth and flow rate under multiple current rain, flood and waterlogging combination scenarios;

[0014] According to the waterlogging disaster scenarios under various combined scenario conditions, a one- and two-dimensional coupled external flood and internal waterlogging dynamic model was established in the study area, and the model parameters were calibrated and verified. Finally, the evolution process of the waterlogging flood under each scenario was simulated and analyzed.

[0015] Preferably, the accessibility analysis of the resettlement sites is conducted based on the number of people to be relocated, the relocation routes, and the supply-demand ratio between the resettlement sites, including:

[0016] According to the resettlement site data, determine the entrance and exit locations and the number of people that can be accommodated at the resettlement site; and set the vehicle speed and walking speed of different road types according to the road network data of the study area;

[0017] According to the number of people that can be accommodated at the resettlement site and the number of people to be relocated at the transfer site, the probability of each community selecting each resettlement site within the time threshold is calculated;

[0018] The supply-demand ratio of each resettlement site is calculated based on the probability of each community selecting each resettlement site within the time threshold;

[0019] The accessibility of the resettlement sites is calculated based on the probability of each community selecting each resettlement site within the time threshold and the supply-demand ratio of each resettlement site.

[0020] As a preferred method, the probability calculation method of each community selecting each resettlement point within the time threshold is:

[0021]

[0022]

[0023] in, A transfer point for a community i Select a placement point within the time threshold j The probability of For resettlement point j The number of people that can be accommodated, For transfer pointi To the resettlement site j The distance weight, For transfer point i The number of people to be transferred n is the total number of transfer points, For transfer point i To the resettlement site j time, is the time threshold for the search radius.

[0024] As a preferred method, the supply-demand ratio of each placement point is calculated as follows:

[0025]

[0026] in, For resettlement point j The supply-demand ratio, For resettlement point j The number of people that can be accommodated, For transfer point i The number of people to be transferred n is the total number of transfer points, For transfer point i To the resettlement site j time, is the time threshold for the search radius.

[0027] Preferably, the accessibility of the placement point is calculated as follows:

[0028]

[0029] in, For transfer point i To the resettlement site j accessibility, For resettlement point j The supply-demand ratio, For transfer point i Select a placement point within the time threshold j The probability of For transfer point i To the resettlement site j The distance weight, n is the total number of transfer points, For transfer point i To the resettlement site j time, is the time threshold for the search radius.

[0030] As a preferred method, according to the accessibility analysis results of the number of people to be relocated, flooded road sections and relocation points under multiple combination scenarios, the optimal relocation path selection is carried out based on the network analysis model, including:

[0031] According to the accessibility analysis results of the transfer and resettlement points, a transfer point with accessibility lower than the set threshold is selected, and the optimal resettlement point is searched with the selected transfer point as the center;

[0032] The optimal transfer path is calculated by taking the transfer point as the event point, the searched optimal placement point as the facility point, and the time cost as the impedance.

[0033] Preferably, searching for the optimal placement point with the selected transfer point as the center includes:

[0034] Calculate the supply-demand ratio of the selected transfer point to each resettlement point, and the calculation method is:

[0035]

[0036] in, For transfer point x To be transferred to the resettlement site y The supply-demand ratio, For resettlement point y The number of people that can be accommodated, For transfer point i The number of people to be transferred, For transfer point i Select a placement point within the time threshold y The probability of For transfer point x The number of people to be transferred n is the total number of transfer points, For transfer point i To the resettlement site y time, is the search radius threshold;

[0037] Determine whether the supply-demand ratio of the selected transfer point to each resettlement point is greater than 1; if so, select the resettlement point as the optimal resettlement point; otherwise, exclude the resettlement point.

[0038] Preferably, the transfer point is used as the event point, the searched optimal placement point is used as the facility point, and the time cost is used as the impedance to calculate the optimal transfer path, including:

[0039] Calculate the travel time of each road section based on the road network data, and use the travel time from the transfer point to the resettlement point as the cost impedance of the road network analysis;

[0040] Create a new network dataset to generate road networks and nodes for network analysis;

[0041] The optimal transfer path is calculated by taking the transfer point as the event point and the searched optimal placement point as the facility point.

[0042] The present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0043] (1) Through probability analysis and river-town hydrodynamic analysis, the present invention obtains waterlogging attribute data under different combination scenarios, including information such as submerged communities, the number of threatened people, and submerged roads, which serves as a basis for analyzing the best resettlement sites and optimal transfer paths for the affected people under multiple combination waterlogging scenarios in the next step.

[0044] (2) The present invention comprehensively considers the competitive effect of the accommodation capacity of the resettlement sites and the impact of the time threshold for mass transfer. Through probability analysis, supply-demand ratio calculation and accessibility analysis of the resettlement sites, the accommodation capacity and service scope of each resettlement site are obtained, which more systematically and comprehensively reflects the supply-demand ratio among the number of people to be transferred, the transfer route and the resettlement sites. The results provide scientific guidance for the self-transfer of disaster victims and the transfer organized by government departments, which can effectively reduce the pressure of emergency rescue.

[0045] (3) The present invention calculates the optimal resettlement point for the affected people in each community based on the supply-demand ratio analysis among the number of people to be relocated, the transfer routes and the resettlement points for the people. Finally, a network analysis is performed on the low accessibility. According to the actual road distribution and the specific transfer speed, the optimal path is selected with the time cost as the impedance. The optimal supply-demand ratio between the number of people to be relocated and the resettlement points for the people and the shortest time for the people's transfer path are comprehensively considered, which can better avoid the problems of unreasonable allocation of rescue forces and saturated or excessive capacity of resettlement points. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0046] Figure 1 The figure is a flowchart of a method for selecting a personnel transfer route based on urban waterlogging disaster scenarios. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0047] The specific implementation modes of the present invention are described below so that those skilled in the art can understand the present invention. However, it should be clear that the present invention is not limited to the scope of the specific implementation modes. For those of ordinary skill in the art, as long as various changes are within the spirit and scope of the present invention as defined and determined by the attached claims, these changes are obvious, and all inventions and creations utilizing the concept of the present invention are protected.

[0048] like Figure 1 As shown, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for selecting a personnel transfer path based on a urban waterlogging disaster scenario, comprising the following steps S1 to S4:

[0049] S1. Conduct flood probability distribution analysis based on historical flood data in the study area, and conduct waterlogging simulation analysis under multiple combination scenarios based on a one- and two-dimensional coupled external flood and internal waterlogging dynamic model established in the study area and combined with the flood probability distribution analysis results;

[0050] In an optional embodiment of the present invention, step S1 performs flood probability distribution analysis based on historical flood data of the study area, including:

[0051] According to the historical flood data of the study area, the joint distribution is constructed using the Copula function to calculate the probability distribution characteristics of waterlogging events in the study area.

[0052] Step S1 is based on the one- and two-dimensional coupled external flood and internal waterlogging dynamic model established in the study area, combined with the flood probability distribution analysis results to conduct waterlogging simulation analysis under multiple combination scenarios, including:

[0053] Based on the results of flood probability distribution analysis, i.e. the joint probability distribution of main and tributary floods, internal and external floods, rainstorm floods, and rainstorm waterlogging, a waterlogging disaster plan is constructed for waterlogging inundation range, water depth and flow rate under various combined scenarios of rain, flood and waterlogging;

[0054] According to the multi-scenario combination scheme, a one- and two-dimensional coupled external flood and internal waterlogging dynamic model was established in the study area, and the model parameters were calibrated and verified. Finally, the evolution process of internal waterlogging floods under each scheme was simulated and analyzed.

[0055] S2. Based on the analysis results of waterlogging disasters under multiple combination scenarios, the road network data and community population structure data of the study area are overlaid and analyzed to determine the number of people to be relocated and the flooded road sections under multiple combination scenarios;

[0056] In an optional embodiment of the present invention, step S2 obtains the road network data and community population structure data of the study area, and overlays and analyzes the results of the simulated flood inundation range, inundation, flow velocity and depth based on GIS software;

[0057] Based on the results of superposition analysis, a statistical analysis was conducted on the number of people threatened in the flooded areas under multiple scenario combinations, including the number and distribution of key focus groups such as the elderly, children, and the disabled. Finally, the flooded and waterlogged road sections were analyzed and checked.

[0058] S3. Conduct accessibility analysis of the resettlement sites based on the number of people to be relocated, the relocation routes and the supply-demand ratio between the resettlement sites;

[0059] In an optional embodiment of the present invention, step S3 performs accessibility analysis of the transfer and resettlement points according to the number of people to be transferred, the transfer routes, and the supply-demand ratio between the resettlement points, including:

[0060] According to the resettlement site data in the study area, determine the entrance and exit locations of the resettlement sites and the number of people that can be accommodated; specifically, in the GIS software, the flooded range vector data, population distribution data, and road network data are superimposed to analyze the number of people in the flooded area and the flooded roads; and set the vehicle driving speed and walking speed of different road types according to the road network data;

[0061] According to the number of people that can be accommodated at the resettlement site and the number of people to be transferred at the transfer site, the probability of each community selecting each resettlement site within the time threshold is calculated as follows:

[0062]

[0063]

[0064] in, For transfer point i Select a placement point within the time threshold j The probability of For resettlement point j The number of people that can be accommodated, For transfer point i To the resettlement site j The distance weight, For transfer point i The number of people to be transferred, n is the total number of transfer points, For transfer point i To the resettlement site j time, is the time threshold of the search radius. In addition, if there is no resettlement point within the 30-minute search range of a transfer point, the nearest resettlement point searched for that transfer point is the optimal resettlement point for that transfer point, and the selection probability is 100%.

[0065] The supply-demand ratio of each resettlement point is calculated based on the probability of each resettlement point selected by each community within the time threshold. Specifically, the entrance and exit of each resettlement point are set as the resettlement point. i , the community center is the transfer point j , taking the time of mass transfer as the search radius, a search domain is obtained, and the number of masses to be transferred and resettled is calculated based on this search domain. The supply-demand ratio of resettlement points is calculated as follows:

[0066]

[0067] in, For resettlement point j The supply-demand ratio, For resettlement point j The number of people that can be accommodated, For transfer point iThe number of people to be transferred n is the total number of transfer points, For transfer point i To the resettlement site j time, is the search radius threshold.

[0068] The accessibility of the resettlement sites is calculated based on the probability of each resettlement site within the time threshold of each community selection and the supply-demand ratio of each resettlement site. The calculation method is:

[0069]

[0070] in, For transfer point i To the resettlement site j The accessibility of the resettlement site is better, with a larger value indicating better accessibility of the resettlement site; For resettlement point j The supply-demand ratio, For transfer point i Select a placement point within the time threshold j The probability of For transfer point i To the resettlement site j The distance weight, n is the total number of transfer points, For transfer point i To the resettlement site j time, is the time threshold for the search radius.

[0071] S4. According to the results of the accessibility analysis of the number of people to be relocated, flooded road sections, and relocation and resettlement points under multiple combination scenarios, the optimal relocation path is selected based on the network analysis model.

[0072] In an optional embodiment of the present invention, step S4 selects the optimal transfer path based on the network analysis model according to the accessibility analysis results of the number of people to be transferred, the flooded road sections, and the transfer and resettlement points under multiple combination scenarios, including:

[0073] According to the accessibility analysis results of the transfer and resettlement points, select the transfer points whose accessibility is lower than the set threshold, exclude the resettlement points with a small supply-demand ratio, and search for the optimal resettlement point with the selected transfer point as the center; specifically, it includes:

[0074] Calculate the supply-demand ratio of the selected transfer point to each resettlement point, and the calculation method is:

[0075]

[0076] in, For transfer point x To be transferred to the resettlement sitey The supply-demand ratio, For resettlement point y The number of people that can be accommodated, For transfer point i The number of people to be transferred, For transfer point i Select a placement point within the time threshold y The probability of For transfer point x The number of people to be transferred n is the total number of transfer points, For transfer point i To the resettlement site y time, is the search radius threshold;

[0077] Determine whether the supply-demand ratio of the selected transfer point to each resettlement point is greater than 1; if so, select the resettlement point as the optimal resettlement point; otherwise, exclude the resettlement point.

[0078] The optimal transfer path is calculated by taking the transfer point as the event point, the searched optimal resettlement point as the facility point, and the time cost from the transfer point to the resettlement point as the impedance; specifically, it includes:

[0079] Preprocess the network data obtained in step S2, including screening the road network type, setting the starting direction or relative direction of the road network, etc., and then calculate the travel time of each road section according to the speed limit setting of the road network data in step S3, and use the travel time as the cost impedance of the road network analysis;

[0080] Create a new network dataset, generate road networks and nodes for network analysis, and process special underpasses and overpasses;

[0081] The optimal transfer path is calculated by taking the transfer point as the event point and the searched optimal placement point as the facility point.

[0082] In view of the problems in the existing selection of resettlement points and transfer routes for the masses, such as strong subjectivity in decision-making, incomplete consideration of disaster-related factors, and low accuracy of results, the present invention is based on the community level and analyzes the supply-demand ratio among the number of people to be transferred, transfer routes and resettlement points for the masses, and calculates the optimal solutions for resettlement points and transfer routes for the masses under multiple combinations of waterlogging disaster scenarios, thereby avoiding the problem of low efficiency of transfer and risk avoidance caused by human subjective conjecture.

[0083] The present invention is described with reference to flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of processes and / or blocks in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0084] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer readable memory produce an article of manufacture including an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0085] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process in the computer or other programmable device. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0086] The present invention uses specific embodiments to illustrate the principles and implementation methods of the present invention. The description of the above embodiments is only used to help understand the method of the present invention and its core idea. At the same time, for those skilled in the art, according to the idea of ​​the present invention, there will be changes in the specific implementation methods and application scope. In summary, the content of this specification should not be understood as a limitation on the present invention.

[0087] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments described herein are intended to help readers understand the principles of the present invention, and should be understood that the protection scope of the present invention is not limited to such specific statements and embodiments. Those skilled in the art can make various other specific variations and combinations that do not deviate from the essence of the present invention based on the technical revelations disclosed by the present invention, and these variations and combinations are still within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for selecting a personnel transfer path based on urban waterlogging disaster scenarios, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: The flood probability distribution analysis was conducted based on the historical flood data of the study area, and the one- and two-dimensional coupled external flood and internal waterlogging dynamic model established in the study area was used to conduct internal waterlogging simulation analysis under multiple combination scenarios in combination with the flood probability distribution analysis results. Based on the waterlogging simulation analysis results under multiple combination scenarios, the road network data and community population structure data of the study area are overlaid and analyzed to determine the number of people to be relocated and the flooded road sections under multiple combination scenarios; According to the number of people to be relocated, the relocation routes and the supply-demand ratio between the relocation sites, the accessibility analysis of the relocation sites is carried out, including: According to the resettlement site data, determine the entrance and exit locations and the number of people that can be accommodated at the resettlement site; and set the vehicle speed and walking speed of different road types according to the road network data of the study area; According to the number of people that can be accommodated at the resettlement site and the number of people to be transferred at the transfer site, the probability of each community selecting each resettlement site within the time threshold is calculated as follows: in, A transfer point for a community i Select a placement point within the time threshold j The probability of For resettlement point j The number of people that can be accommodated, For transfer point i To the resettlement site j The distance weight, For transfer point i The number of people to be transferred n is the total number of transfer points, For transfer point i To the resettlement site j time, is the time threshold of the search radius; The supply-demand ratio of each resettlement site is calculated based on the probability of each community selecting each resettlement site within the time threshold. The calculation method is: in, For resettlement point j The supply-demand ratio, For resettlement point j The number of people that can be accommodated, For transfer point i The number of people to be transferred n is the total number of transfer points, For transfer point i To the resettlement site j time, is the search radius threshold; The accessibility of the resettlement sites is calculated based on the probability of each resettlement site within the time threshold of each community selection and the supply-demand ratio of each resettlement site. The calculation method is: in, For transfer point i To the resettlement site j accessibility, For resettlement point j The supply-demand ratio, For transfer point i Select a placement point within the time threshold j The probability of For transfer point i To the resettlement site j The distance weight, n is the total number of transfer points, For transfer point i To the resettlement site j time, is the search radius threshold; According to the results of the accessibility analysis of the number of people to be relocated, flooded road sections, and relocation sites under multiple combination scenarios, the optimal relocation path is selected based on the network analysis model, including: According to the accessibility analysis results of the transfer and resettlement points, select the transfer points whose accessibility is lower than the set threshold, and search for the optimal resettlement point with the selected transfer point as the center, including: Calculate the supply-demand ratio of the selected transfer point to each resettlement point, and the calculation method is: in, For transfer point x To be transferred to the resettlement site y The supply-demand ratio, For resettlement point y The number of people that can be accommodated, For transfer point i The number of people to be transferred, For transfer point i Select a placement point within the time threshold y The probability of For transfer point x The number of people to be transferred n is the total number of transfer points, For transfer point i To the resettlement site y time, is the search radius threshold; Determine whether the supply-demand ratio of the selected transfer point to each resettlement point is greater than 1; if so, select the resettlement point as the optimal resettlement point; otherwise, exclude the resettlement point; The optimal transfer path is calculated by taking the transfer point as the event point, the searched optimal placement point as the facility point, and the time cost as the impedance.

2. A method for selecting a personnel transfer path based on a urban waterlogging disaster scenario according to claim 1, characterized in that: Flood probability distribution analysis based on historical flood data in the study area includes: According to the historical flood data of the study area, the joint probability distribution of main and tributary floods, internal and external floods, rainstorm floods, and rainstorm waterlogging is constructed using the Copula function, and the probability distribution characteristics of waterlogging events in the study area are calculated.

3. The method for selecting a personnel transfer path based on a urban waterlogging disaster scenario according to claim 1, characterized in that: Based on the one- and two-dimensional coupled external flood and internal waterlogging dynamic model established in the study area, combined with the flood probability distribution analysis results, internal waterlogging simulation analysis under multiple combination scenarios was carried out, including: Based on the results of flood probability distribution analysis, construct waterlogging disaster plans for waterlogging inundation range, water depth and flow rate under multiple current rain, flood and waterlogging combination scenarios; According to the waterlogging disaster scenarios under various combined scenario conditions, a one- and two-dimensional coupled external flood and internal waterlogging dynamic model was established in the study area, and the model parameters were calibrated and verified. Finally, the evolution process of the waterlogging flood under each scenario was simulated and analyzed.

4. The method for selecting a personnel transfer path based on a urban waterlogging disaster scenario according to claim 1, characterized in that: The optimal transfer path is calculated by taking the transfer point as the event point, the searched optimal placement point as the facility point, and the time cost as the impedance, including: Calculate the travel time of each road section based on the road network data, and use the travel time from the transfer point to the resettlement point as the cost impedance of the road network analysis; Create a new network dataset to generate road networks and nodes for network analysis; The optimal transfer path is calculated by taking the transfer point as the event point and the searched optimal placement point as the facility point.

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