A method for assessing the safety of ship routes during typhoons

Abstract

The present invention proposes a method for assessing the safety of ship routes during typhoons. The safety assessment of the route is achieved through data-driven, which is a systematic and scientific assessment method with high accuracy and fast response speed. It can effectively reduce the crew's need for navigation experience in route-making decisions during typhoons and improve the safety of ships' navigation at sea. Secondly, the present invention also notes that ships usually do not sail completely according to routes and fixed speeds during navigation, and the accuracy of numerical forecast results will increase as the reporting time approaches. A dynamic navigation assessment model is further designed based on these two points. Subsequently, as the resolution and accuracy of numerical forecasting technology are improved, the present invention can also provide technical support for typhoon risk avoidance in unmanned driving.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the field of marine disaster prevention and reduction, and specifically relates to a method for assessing the safety of ship routes during typhoons. Background Art

[0002] At present, with the continuous growth of global trade, the importance of the maritime transport industry has become increasingly prominent. However, due to the intensification of global climate change, extreme weather events such as typhoons have become more frequent, which has become one of the key factors affecting the efficiency and safety of maritime transportation, posing a serious threat to the safety of maritime transportation. Especially during typhoons, ships sailing at sea face huge risks, such as strong winds, huge waves and reduced visibility, which may cause the ship to deviate, lose control or even capsize, which in turn has a serious impact on the safety of crew members and cargo transportation.

[0003] However, when dealing with complex weather conditions such as typhoons, the existing assessment of ship route safety often relies on the experience and subjective judgment of the crew, and lacks systematic, data-driven decision support tools. This not only increases the risk of navigation, but also limits the efficiency and effectiveness of emergency response. Therefore, based on atmospheric and marine environmental data and combined with the characteristic information of sailing ships, an effective method for assessing the safety of ship routes during typhoons is developed to scientifically assess the safety of ship routes during typhoons, which has important practical significance for improving the safety of maritime transportation and protecting the safety of life and property. Summary of the invention

[0004] According to the specific embodiments provided by the present invention, the present invention discloses the following technical effects:

[0005] The present invention proposes a method for assessing the safety of ship routes during typhoons, comprising the following steps:

[0006] Step 1: Make numerical forecasts of sea waves in large areas, make meteorological forecasts for small areas of typhoon self-tracking, and evaluate dynamic water depth.

[0007] Step 2: The user sets the ship characteristic information.

[0008] Step 3: Establish a regional safety assessment model, calculate the distance that the ship can travel at different times, and construct navigation circles at different times; comprehensively analyze the parameters between any different navigation circles, calculate the regional safety results applicable to the ship, and generate a regional safety assessment map.

[0009] Step 4: The user completes the initial route planning based on the regional safety assessment map, divides the route into multiple sections based on the distance the ship can sail per hour, and calls the environmental data at the corresponding time for each section to complete the safety assessment of the route.

[0010] Further, the step 1 comprises:

[0011] Step 1.1: Establish a sea-air-wave coupled numerical prediction model covering the entire large area to generate basic meteorological, oceanographic and wave data.

[0012] Step 1.2: Establish a small-area meteorological numerical prediction model embedded in the meteorological model in the sea-air-wave coupled numerical prediction model to generate high-resolution meteorological data.

[0013] Step 1.3: Establish a dynamic water depth assessment model to assess the real-time water depth of the target area.

[0014] Furthermore, in step 1.1, the sea-air-wave coupled numerical prediction model includes a meteorological model, an ocean model and an ocean wave model. The three models are coupled in such a way that the meteorological model transmits the sea surface air temperature to the ocean model and transmits the sea surface wind speed to the ocean wave model.

[0015] Furthermore, in step 1.2, the forecast period of the small-area meteorological numerical forecast model is consistent with that of the sea-air-wave coupled numerical forecast model, and the output result is high-resolution sea surface wind speed.

[0016] In particular, the ship characteristic information in step 2 includes the ship's sailing speed, the ship's draft and the ship's current position.

[0017] Further, the step 3 specifically includes:

[0018] Step 3-1: Establish a regional safety assessment model and calculate the maximum distance that the ship can sail at different times based on the ship's sailing speed and current position.

[0019] Step 3-2: Taking the current position of the ship as the center and the maximum distance as the radius, construct navigation circles at each time.

[0020] Step 3-3: Comprehensively analyze the parameters between any different navigation circles, calculate the regional safety applicable to the ship, and generate a regional safety assessment map.

[0021] In particular, the parameters in step 3-3 specifically include dynamic water depth, current intensity, sea wind intensity, and wave intensity between any different navigation circles.

[0022] Furthermore, in step 4, the specific method for the user to complete the initial route planning is:

[0023] (1) The user generates a regional safety assessment map based on the regional safety assessment map generated in step 3;

[0024] (2) The user directly uploads a route file containing the coordinates and sequence of multiple points to complete the initial route planning settings.

[0025] Furthermore, it also includes step 5: judging whether to start the dynamic assessment of navigation, and ending it directly when it is not necessary; when it needs to be started, regularly updating the new route and numerical forecast results according to the latest position of the ship, and performing the safety assessment of the route with the new route.

[0026] Furthermore, when the user turns on the navigation assessment requirement, the distance between the latest position and each endpoint of the initial route is calculated regularly based on the latest position of the ship; the line connecting the ship and the nearest endpoint and the part of the initial planned route after the endpoint are used as the new route to complete the ship route update, and at the same time, the completion status of the latest round of numerical forecasts is retrieved, the numerical forecast results are updated, and the safety assessment of the route is performed using the new route.

[0027] Beneficial effects of the invention: The invention realizes the safety assessment of the route through data-driven, which is a systematic and scientific assessment method with high accuracy and fast response speed. It can effectively reduce the crew's need for navigation experience in route decision-making during typhoons and improve the safety of ships sailing at sea. Subsequently, with the improvement of the resolution and accuracy of numerical forecasting technology, the invention can also provide technical support for typhoon risk avoidance in unmanned driving. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0028] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method for assessing the safety of ship routes during typhoons according to an embodiment of the present application;

[0029] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of the navigation circle of the embodiment of the present application;

[0030] Figure 3 A specific calculation flow chart of the regional security results of the embodiment of the present application;

[0031] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the ship route update process according to an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0032] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0033] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for evaluating the safety of ship routes during typhoons, so as to achieve a scientific evaluation of the safety of ship routes during typhoons based on data-driven methods.

[0034] In order to make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0035] like Figure 1 As shown, this embodiment provides a method for assessing the safety of ship routes during a typhoon, comprising the following steps:

[0036] Step S1: Numerical forecast of large-area sea waves:

[0037] Establish a set of sea-air-wave coupled numerical prediction models covering the entire China region to generate basic meteorological, oceanographic and wave data. The data include the sea surface wind speed V output by the meteorological model. sf , the sea surface height H output by the ocean model sf , current speed U o , the wave height H output by the wave model w Although the resolution of these data is not high, they must fully consider the impact of typhoons on the ocean and waves.

[0038] Specifically, the sea-air-wave coupled numerical prediction model includes a meteorological model, an ocean model, and a wave model. The meteorological model needs to have a resolution of at least 6 km, and the resolution of the ocean model and the wave model needs to have a resolution of at least 9 km. The three models are coupled in the following way: the meteorological model transmits the sea surface temperature to the ocean model, and transmits the sea surface wind speed to the wave model. The forecast cycle of the sea-air-wave coupled numerical prediction model is 6 hours per round, each round of forecast is 24 hours, and one result is output every hour.

[0039] Step S2: Typhoon self-tracking small area weather forecast:

[0040] Generate a set of small-area meteorological numerical prediction models (hereinafter referred to as small meteorological models, and the meteorological model in the sea-air-wave coupled numerical prediction model in step S1 is referred to as large meteorological model) embedded in the meteorological model in the sea-air-wave coupled numerical prediction model to generate high-resolution meteorological data. In this way, when conducting regional safety assessments and ship route safety assessments, the impact of ocean currents and waves can be fully considered, and the accuracy of high-resolution meteorological data, especially wind data, can be ensured, so that when comprehensively assessing the safety of ship routes, the key impact of wind on navigation safety can be more accurately and comprehensively reflected.

[0041] It should be noted that the resolution of the small meteorological model needs to be kept below 2 km. A grid is generated each time according to the typhoon center position. The coverage of the grid is 12°×12°, about 1020km×1300km (reference 27°N). The forecast period of the small meteorological model is consistent with that of the large meteorological model, with a 6-hour forecast cycle, each round of forecast is 24 hours, and one result is output every hour. The output result is the high-resolution sea surface wind speed Vhsf .

[0042] Step S3: Dynamic water depth assessment:

[0043] Load a set of high-resolution seafloor topography, and record the water depth in the topography as H t , and the water depth H of the lowest grid in the ocean model in the air-sea wave coupled numerical prediction model b .

[0044] Read the sea surface height H provided in step S1 sf and wave height H w , a dynamic water depth assessment model is established to assess the real-time water depth H of the target area. The specific calculation method is shown in formula (1):

[0045]

[0046] Step S4: Vessel information setting:

[0047] The user sets the ship's characteristic information, including the ship's sailing speed U s , ship draft H sa and the current position of the ship (X s ,Y s ).

[0048] Step S5: Regional safety assessment:

[0049] Establish a regional safety assessment model, based on the ship's navigation speed U obtained in step S4 s and the current position of the ship (X s ,Y s ), calculate the maximum distance a ship can travel in 1 hour, 3 hours, 6 hours and 24 hours respectively.

[0050] like Figure 2 As shown, with the current position of the ship as the center and the maximum distance as the radius, a 1-hour navigation circle, a 3-hour navigation circle, a 6-hour navigation circle, and a 24-hour navigation circle are constructed.

[0051] Comprehensively analyze the dynamic water depth, current intensity, sea wind intensity, and wave intensity between any different navigation circles, calculate the regional safety results applicable to ships, and generate a regional safety assessment map containing the safety assessment results of multiple navigation circles.

[0052] Among them, Figure 3 As shown, the specific calculation method of the regional safety result is as follows:

[0053] S5-1: Dynamic water depth safety Q1 assessment:

[0054] Read the dynamic water depth H obtained in step S3 and the H obtained in step S4sa , when the dynamic water depth H>H sa +e, the dynamic water depth safety assessment result is that the water depth is safe, Q1=1; in other cases, the water depth is unsafe, Q1=0.

[0055] Among them, e is the water depth safety guarantee height, which is set to 2m by default.

[0056] S5-2: Current intensity safety Q2 assessment:

[0057] Read the ocean current velocity U obtained in step S1 o , when U o When the current intensity is less than 3 knots, it is light to moderate, Q2=1; when U o At 3 to 5 knots, the current strength is moderate, Q2=0.8; when U o When the current is greater than 5 knots, the current intensity is strong, Q2=0, and it is not suitable for navigation.

[0058] S5-3: Sea breeze intensity safety Q3 assessment:

[0059] Read the sea surface wind speed V obtained in step S1 sf and the high-resolution sea surface wind speed V obtained in step S2 hsf , V is preferred hsf As the wind speed for safety assessment of sea breeze intensity, V is used only when the assessment location is outside the small meteorological model in step S2. sf .

[0060] When the wind speed is <5.4m / s (level 1-3 wind), the sea breeze is less than a breeze, Q3=1; when the wind speed is between 5.5~7.9m / s (level 4 wind), the sea breeze is a gentle breeze, Q3=0.98; when the wind speed is between 8.0~10.7m / s (level 5 wind), the sea breeze is a strong wind, Q3=0.90; when the wind speed is between 10.8~13.8m / s (level 6 wind), the sea breeze is a strong wind, Q3=0.91; The wind intensity is strong wind, Q3=0.70; when the wind speed is between 13.9~17.1m / s (level 7 wind), the sea breeze intensity is gale, Q3=0.40; when the wind speed is between 17.2~20.7m / s (level 8 wind), the sea breeze intensity is strong wind, Q3=0.10; when the wind speed is >20.7m / s (level 9 or above wind), the sea breeze intensity is gale or above, Q3=0, which is not suitable for sailing.

[0061] S5-4: Wave strength safety Q4 assessment:

[0062] Read the wave height H obtained in step S1 w , when H w <2.5m, Q4=1; when H w At 2.5-4.0m, Q4=0.90; when Hw At 4.0-5.5m, Q4=0.70; when H w At 5.5-7.5m, Q4=0.40; when H w At 7.5-10.0m, Q4=0.10; when H w When >10.0m, Q4=0, not suitable for sailing.

[0063] S5-5: Regional Safety Assessment:

[0064] Target point safety Q P Q1, Q 2、 Q 3、 After calculating the safety of all grid points, a regional safety assessment map containing the safety assessment results of multiple navigation circles is generated, and the regional safety assessment is completed.

[0065] It should be noted that the time of the data extracted in step S1 or S2 needs to correspond to the navigation circle, that is:

[0066] When the grid point is within the 1-hour navigation circle, read the forecast data for 1 hour later.

[0067] When the grid point is in the 3-hour navigation circle, the ocean current speed U o , sea surface wind speed V sf , high-resolution sea surface wind speed V hsf and wave height H w Read the maximum value of the data in the next 2-3 hours, the sea surface height H sf Read the minimum value of data in the next 2-3 hours.

[0068] When the grid point is in the 6-hour navigation circle, the ocean current speed U o , sea surface wind speed V sf , high-resolution sea surface wind speed V hsf and wave height H w Read the maximum value of the data in the next 4-6 hours, the sea surface height H sf Read the minimum value of data in the next 4-6 hours.

[0069] When the grid point is in the 24-hour navigation circle, the ocean current speed U o , sea surface wind speed V sf , high-resolution sea surface wind speed V hsf and wave height H w Read the maximum value of the data in the next 7-24 hours, the sea surface height H sf Read the minimum value of data in the next 7-24 hours.

[0070] Step S6: Initial route planning settings:

[0071] The user sets the route by multiple single-point clicks based on the regional safety assessment map obtained in step S5, or directly uploads a route file containing multiple point coordinates and sequences to complete the initial route planning settings.

[0072] Step S7: Ship route safety assessment:

[0073] According to the navigation speed U obtained in step S4 s The distance that a ship can sail per hour is calculated, and based on this distance, the route is divided into multiple segments, each of which corresponds to the theoretical distance that the ship can sail in the next hour. In this way, users can complete a safety assessment of the route based on current data.

[0074] Divide each route into multiple points of 2 km, extract relevant environmental data from step S1 or S2, and calculate the safety of all points of the route segmentation with reference to the method in step S5. When the safety of all points is greater than 0.8, the route is safe. In other cases, the route is unsafe.

[0075] It should be noted that the forecast hours used in extracting environmental data in this step are fixed, that is, each segment after segmentation corresponds to a future forecast hour and has nothing to do with the navigation circle.

[0076] Step S8: Navigation dynamic evaluation:

[0077] However, ships usually do not sail completely according to the route and fixed speed during navigation, and the accuracy of the numerical forecast results will increase as the start time approaches. In view of these two points, the embodiment of the present application further establishes a navigation dynamic evaluation model.

[0078] The user determines whether to enable the navigation dynamic assessment. If it is necessary to enable it, the process goes to step S9; if it is not necessary, the process ends directly.

[0079] The specific conditions for starting the dynamic assessment of the navigation are: 1. The user sets it to be turned on; 2. The time difference between the last execution of the ship route safety assessment (ie, step S7) and the execution of this step is more than 10 minutes.

[0080] Step S9: Ship route update:

[0081] like Figure 4As shown in the figure, when the user turns on the navigation assessment requirement, the distance between the latest position and each endpoint of the initial route is calculated based on the latest position of the ship, and the line connecting the ship and the nearest endpoint and the part of the initial planned route after the endpoint are used as the new route to complete the ship route update. At the same time, the completion status of the latest round of numerical forecasts is retrieved and the numerical forecast results are updated. Finally, step S7 is executed with the new route, and the route is divided into multiple sections again according to the distance that the ship can sail per hour, and the environmental data at the corresponding time is called section by section to complete the safety assessment of the new route.

[0082] The present invention uses specific examples to illustrate the principles and implementation methods of the present invention. The above examples are only used to help understand the method and core ideas of the present invention. At the same time, for those skilled in the art, according to the ideas of the present invention, there will be changes in the specific implementation methods and application scope. In summary, the content of this specification should not be understood as limiting the present invention.

[0083] Obviously, the above embodiments of the present invention are merely examples for clearly illustrating the present invention, and are not limitations on the embodiments of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other different forms of changes or modifications can be made based on the above description. It is impossible to list all the embodiments here. All obvious changes or modifications derived from the technical solution of the present invention are still within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for assessing the safety of ship routes during typhoons, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step 1: Make numerical forecasts of sea waves in large areas, make meteorological forecasts for small areas of typhoon self-tracking, and evaluate dynamic water depth; Step 2: The user sets the ship characteristic information; Step 3: Establish a regional safety assessment model, calculate the distance that ships can travel at different times, and construct navigation circles at different times; Comprehensively analyze the parameters between any different navigation circles, calculate the regional safety results applicable to ships, and generate regional safety assessment maps; Step 4: The user completes the initial route planning based on the regional safety assessment map; divides the route into multiple sections based on the hourly sailing distance of the ship, and calls the environmental data at the corresponding time for each section to complete the safety assessment of the route; The step 1 comprises: Step 1.1: Establish a sea-air-wave coupled numerical prediction model to generate basic meteorological, oceanographic and wave data; Step 1.2: Establish a small-area meteorological numerical prediction model embedded in the meteorological model in the sea-air wave coupled numerical prediction model to generate high-resolution meteorological data; Step 1.3: Establish a dynamic water depth assessment model to assess the real-time water depth of the target area; In step 1.1, the sea-air-wave coupled numerical prediction model includes a meteorological model, an ocean model and an ocean wave model; the three models are coupled in the following manner: the meteorological model transmits the sea surface air temperature to the ocean model, and simultaneously transmits the sea surface wind speed to the ocean wave model; In the step 1.2, the forecast period of the small-area meteorological numerical forecast model is consistent with that of the sea-air-wave coupled numerical forecast model, and the output result is high-resolution sea surface wind speed; The step 3 specifically includes: Step 3-1: Establish a regional safety assessment model, and calculate the maximum distance that a ship can sail at different times according to the ship's sailing speed and current position; Step 3-2: Taking the current position of the ship as the center and the maximum distance as the radius, construct navigation circles at different times; Step 3-3: Comprehensively analyze the parameters between any different navigation circles, calculate the regional safety applicable to the ship, and generate a regional safety assessment map; It also includes step 5: determine whether to start the dynamic assessment of the navigation process. If it is not necessary, end it directly; if it needs to be started, regularly update the new route and numerical forecast results according to the latest position of the ship, and perform the safety assessment of the route with the new route.

2. A method for assessing the safety of ship routes during typhoons according to claim 1, characterized in that: The ship characteristic information in step 2 includes the ship's sailing speed, the ship's draft and the ship's current position.

3. A method for assessing the safety of ship routes during typhoons according to claim 1, characterized in that: The parameters in step 3-3 specifically include: dynamic water depth, current intensity, sea wind intensity and wave intensity between any different navigation circles.

4. A method for assessing the safety of ship routes during typhoons according to claim 1, characterized in that: The specific method for the user to complete the initial route planning in step 4 is: (1) The user generates a regional safety assessment map based on the regional safety assessment map generated in step 3; (2) The user directly uploads a route file containing the coordinates and sequence of multiple points to complete the initial route planning settings.

5. The method for assessing the safety of ship routes during typhoons according to claim 1, characterized in that: When the user turns on the navigation assessment requirement, the distance between the latest position and each endpoint of the initial route is calculated based on the latest position of the ship. The line connecting the ship and the nearest endpoint and the part of the initial planned route after the endpoint are used as the new route to complete the ship route update. At the same time, the completion status of the latest round of numerical forecasts is retrieved, the numerical forecast results are updated, and the safety assessment of the route is performed using the new route.

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