A shore power system load prediction method and system

Abstract

The present invention discloses a shore power system load prediction method and system, and relates to the technical field of shore power load prediction and allocation. The method comprises the following steps: collecting data submitted by ships moored at the port, using the ship shore power load estimation book, counting the maximum load of the moored ships and calculating the ship shore power standard allocation load, allocating shore power based on the ship shore power standard allocation load, and at the same time numbering the moored ships and establishing archives, compiling them into the port database, and calculating the shore power surplus load; recording the actual daily power load of ships in the port, and counting periodic data for ships that have been moored for more than days. In the case of insufficient shore power surplus, the present invention dynamically adjusts the shore power standard allocation load of long-term ships based on the shore power extra surplus load of long-term ships, the predicted allocation load of ships that have not entered the port, and the shore power surplus load, so as to meet the power demand of ships that have not entered the port, optimize the allocation and utilization of power resources, and enhance practicality and functionality.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of shore power load prediction and distribution, and in particular to a shore power system load prediction method and system. Background Art

[0002] Shore power refers to a technology that connects to the shore power system to replace the ship's engine power supply when the ship is at port. By using shore power, the ship can stop using its own engine, thereby reducing energy consumption and emissions and improving the air quality in the port area.

[0003] The existing shore power system provides moored ships with the "Shore Power Operating Condition Power Load Calculation Book" reviewed and approved by the ship inspection agency. The shore power system distributes shore power to ships based on the maximum load power in the load calculation book. Therefore, in actual use, the ship load power is often less than the estimated value, and the estimated load in the calculation book is the predicted load under normal circumstances, and the impact of actual weather factors on the shore power load of moored ships cannot be considered. The existing shore power system is difficult to distribute shore power to ships by estimating the load, and it is impossible to dynamically adjust the shore power power distribution for ships that stay in the port for a long time when the shore power capacity is insufficient, and there are problems of low practicality and functionality; Chinese patent publication number CN115660136A discloses a shore power system load prediction method and device based on multiple factors, which can learn the internal connection between historical load data and conditional factor data, so as to predict the real-time power consumption status of the ship, but the above patent has the problems of poor practicality, complex parameter adjustment and low operating efficiency during application.

[0004] Currently, no effective solution has been proposed for the problems in the related technologies. Summary of the invention

[0005] In view of the problems in the related art, the present invention proposes a shore power system load prediction method and system to overcome the above technical problems existing in the existing related art.

[0006] To this end, the specific technical solution adopted by the present invention is as follows:

[0007] A shore power system load prediction method, the method comprising the following steps:

[0008] S1. Collect data submitted by ships moored at the port, count the maximum load of moored ships and calculate the standard allocation load of shore power through the ship shore power load estimation book, allocate shore power based on the standard allocation load of shore power, number the moored ships and create files, compile them into the port database, and calculate the surplus load of shore power;

[0009] S2. Record the actual daily power load of ships in port. For ships of the day, statistical periodic data is collected, the average actual power load of ships currently in port for a long time is recorded, and the actual distribution load of ship shore power is set;

[0010] S3. When the surplus load of shore power is insufficient, the actual load data of ships not in port in history are collected, the meteorological factor ratio coefficient is calculated in combination with the meteorological temperature, and the shore power load of ships not in port is predicted in combination with the current meteorological data;

[0011] S4. Based on the average actual power load and the predicted load distribution of ships not yet in port, adjust the shore power distribution to meet the shore power usage of ships in the port.

[0012] As a preferred implementation, S11, based on the maximum shore power load of the ship on the ship shore power load estimation form submitted before the ship berths, obtain the standard distributed load of the ship shore power ;

[0013] S12, through Establish a port vessel management database, number the vessels moored at the port and create files, which include the vessel number, vessel shore power load estimation, vessel shore power standard allocation load, berthing time, and delete the files of vessels leaving the port every day;

[0014] S13. Calculate the daily shore power surplus load based on the ship shore power standard distribution load in the port ship management database. The algorithm formula is:

[0015] ;

[0016] in, Represents the surplus load of shore power on that day, is the total shore power capacity of the port, The total load allocated to the shore power standard for moored ships on that day.

[0017] As a preferred embodiment, S2 includes the following sub-steps:

[0018] S21. Collect the actual daily power load of ships in the port and record the actual daily power load in the files of the corresponding ships;

[0019] S22: For files with a parking time exceeding The ship that has been moored for a day is marked as a long-term ship in the archive. The actual power load of the current ship that has been moored every day is counted, and the mean and standard deviation of the actual power load are calculated. The actual distribution load of the ship's shore power is set. The specific steps are as follows:

[0020] ;

[0021] ;

[0022] in, Represents the actual daily power load data of the ship, Represents the number and date respectively. For ships The average daily electricity load during the entire berthing period, Indicates ship The number of days parked, For ships The degree of fluctuation of daily electricity load relative to the mean, i.e., standard deviation;

[0023] Combining the average daily power load and standard deviation, the actual distributed load of the ship's shore power is calculated. The algorithm formula is:

[0024] ;

[0025] The actual daily ship shore power distribution load is recorded in the file of the current ship and replaces the actual daily ship shore power distribution load of the previous day.

[0026] As a preferred embodiment, S3 includes the following sub-steps:

[0027] S31, surplus load compared to the other shore power supply Standard load sharing with shore power supply for ships not in port :

[0028] when ≥ When , it means that the current port shore power surplus load is sufficient to meet the shore power load of ships that have not entered the port, allowing ships to enter the port;

[0029] when < When , it means that the current port shore power surplus load is insufficient and cannot meet the shore power load of ships that have not entered the port. The historical actual load data of ships that have not entered the port and the corresponding weather temperature are collected;

[0030] S32. Based on the actual load data of the ships that have not entered the port in history and the corresponding weather temperature, combined with the current ship meteorological factor ratio coefficient of the estimated load in the calculation book of the shore power load of the ships that have not entered the port, and through the meteorological forecast temperature during the pre-berthing period of the ships that have not entered the port, calculate the predicted distribution load of the ships that have not entered the port.

[0031] As a preferred embodiment, the S32 includes the following sub-steps:

[0032] S321. The historical actual load data of the ships that have not entered the port and the corresponding weather temperature are divided based on the temperature range. The temperature range includes:

[0033] ≤-10, -10< ≤0, 0< ≤10、10< ≤20、20< ≤30、30< ≤40, >40;

[0034] The mean values ​​of the actual load data in the port in different temperature ranges are calculated respectively, and the algorithm formula is:

[0035] ;

[0036] in, Indicates the temperature range, Representatives in Temperature range in port actual load, is the total number of data points in the current temperature range;

[0037] S322, combined with the estimated load in the shore power load calculation book for ships not entering the port , respectively calculate the proportional coefficients in different temperature ranges, and the algorithm formula is:

[0038] ;

[0039] in, For vessels that are not currently in port Proportional coefficient within the temperature range;

[0040] S323. The daily temperature forecast values ​​of the ships not entering the port during the expected berthing period are collected through the meteorological station, and the daily forecast load is calculated respectively. The algorithm formula is:

[0041] ;

[0042] in, Indicates the berthing date of the vessel that is not currently in port. The current berthing date for vessels not in port The daily forecast load under The berthing date for vessels that are not currently in port The proportional coefficient within the temperature range below is the proportion of the vessel not entering the port during the berthing period. Sort in descending order and select the first As a forecast of the load distribution for vessels not currently in port .

[0043] As a preferred embodiment, the S4 includes the following sub-steps:

[0044] S41. For long-term ships in the archive, by comparing the actual allocated load of the ship's shore power with the standard allocated load of the ship's shore power, the additional surplus load of the shore power of different ships is obtained;

[0045] S42. Based on the extra surplus load of shore power for long-term ships, the predicted allocated load for ships not in port, and the surplus load of shore power, the standard allocated load of shore power for long-term ships is adjusted to meet the shore power usage of ships in port.

[0046] As a preferred embodiment, the S41 includes the following sub-steps:

[0047] S411. Based on the long-term vessels in the archive, all long-term vessels are sorted in descending order according to the length of time they have been moored and numbered, and the additional surplus load of shore power is calculated respectively. The algorithm formula is:

[0048] ;

[0049] in, Long-term ship numbers in descending order, Representative number is Long-term additional surplus load of ship shore power, Representative number is Long-term ship shore power standard distribution load, Representative number is The actual distribution load of long-term ship shore power.

[0050] As a preferred embodiment, the S42 includes the following sub-steps:

[0051] S421. Calculate the load difference based on the surplus load of shore power and the predicted load of ships not yet in port. , and its algorithm formula is:

[0052] ;

[0053] when When ≤0, it means that the surplus load of shore power meets the predicted load allocation of ships that have not entered the port. The shore power load is allocated to the ships that have not entered the port according to the predicted load allocation of ships that have not entered the port, and the ships that have not entered the port are arranged to enter the port;

[0054] when When it is greater than 0, it means that the surplus load of shore power does not meet the predicted load allocation of ships that have not entered the port. The shore power load is redistributed in combination with the long-term surplus load of ship shore power.

[0055] S422. When the surplus load of shore power does not meet the predicted load distribution of the ships that have not entered the port, the surplus load of shore power is selected in sequence according to the serial numbering sequence of the long-term berthing time of the ships to accumulate and obtain the compensation load. The algorithm formula is:

[0056] ;

[0057] when ≥ , stop the accumulation of additional surplus load of shore power, based on The long-term ship number in the system is used to redistribute the shore power load to the selected long-term ships, and the predicted allocated load of the numbered ships is Replacement of vessel number , distribute shore power load to ships that have not entered the port according to the predicted load distribution of ships that have not entered the port, and arrange for ships that have not entered the port to enter the port;

[0058] when < When , it means that the current predicted load of the ships that have not entered the port exceeds the port's allocated carrying capacity, where .

[0059] A shore power system load prediction system includes a ship data collection module, a shore power surplus calculation module, a distribution load calculation module, a port carrying capacity calculation module, and a shore power load adjustment module:

[0060] The ship data collection module collects the submitted data of the ships moored at the port, combines the ship shore power load estimation book, counts the maximum load of the moored ships and calculates the standard allocated load of the ship shore power, establishes a port ship management library, numbers the moored ships and creates files, which include the ship number, the ship shore power load estimation book, the ship shore power standard allocated load, and the mooring time, and deletes the files of ships leaving the port every day;

[0061] The shore power surplus calculation module calculates the shore power surplus load of the day based on the total shore power capacity of the port and the sum of the shore power standard allocation load of the moored ships on the day;

[0062] The load distribution calculation module collects the actual daily power load of ships in the port and records the actual daily power load in the files of the corresponding ships. The ships that have been moored for days are marked as long-term ships in the archives. The actual power load of the current ship that has been moored every day is counted, and the mean and standard deviation of the actual power load are calculated to set the actual distribution load of the ship's shore power.

[0063] The port carrying capacity calculation module, when the surplus load of shore power is insufficient, collects the historical actual load data of ships that have not entered the port, calculates the meteorological factor ratio coefficient in combination with the meteorological temperature, predicts the shore power load of ships that have not entered the port in combination with the current meteorological data, allocates the load according to the surplus load of shore power and the predicted load of ships that have not entered the port, and calculates the load difference;

[0064] The shore power load adjustment module, for the long-term ships in the archive, obtains the extra surplus load of shore power of different ships by comparing the actual allocated load of shore power of the ships with the standard allocated load of shore power of the ships, and adjusts the standard allocated load of shore power of the long-term ships according to the load difference and the extra surplus load of shore power of the long-term ships to meet the shore power usage of the port ships.

[0065] The beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0066] When the shore power capacity of the port is insufficient, the present invention predicts and corrects the estimated shore power load of the ships that have not entered the port in combination with the weather temperature range, and takes the maximum value of the daily predicted load in combination with the berthing time of the ships that have not entered the port, generates the predicted allocated load of the ships that have not entered the port and makes a port entry judgment, and dynamically predicts the power demand of the ships that have not entered the port in combination with the weather temperature range and the berthing time, thereby enhancing practicality; the present invention calculates the surplus of shore power load, and allocates shore power according to the traditional shore power system allocation mode when the surplus is sufficient, and allocates shore power to the ships that have not entered the port according to the predicted allocated load when the surplus is insufficient, so as to flexibly respond to changes in power demand and improve overall operational efficiency; the present invention collects the actual power load of long-term moored ships, counts the actual power load of the current ship that has been moored every day, calculates the mean and standard deviation of the actual power load, sets the actual allocated load of the ship's shore power, avoids a one-size-fits-all allocation method, and arranges the berthing time in descending order to ensure that the numbering is reliable The calculation samples of the actual distributed load of shore power of the previous ship are sufficient, and the actual distributed load of shore power is more accurate, so that the result of the additional surplus load of shore power is more representative and accurate, which is convenient for the subsequent adjustment of the standard distributed load of shore power of long-term ships. When the surplus amount of shore power is insufficient, the present invention adjusts the standard distributed load of shore power of long-term ships based on the additional surplus load of shore power of long-term ships, the predicted distributed load of ships that have not entered the port, and the surplus load of shore power to meet the shore power use of ships that have not entered the port. The system can dynamically adjust the standard distributed load of shore power of long-term moored ships according to the additional surplus load of long-term ships and the predicted distributed load of ships that have not entered the port, so as to ensure the reasonable allocation and efficient utilization of port shore power resources and enhance functionality. The present invention dynamically adjusts the surplus amount of shore power, combines the power demand of ships that have not entered the port, flexibly adjusts the power distribution strategy, responds to changes in power demand, optimizes the allocation and utilization of power resources, improves the flexibility and adaptability of the entire system, and improves the operating efficiency of the port. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0067] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0068] Figure 1 is a flow chart of a shore power system load prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0069] Figure 2 The system block diagram of a shore power system load prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0070] To further illustrate each embodiment, the present invention provides drawings, which are part of the disclosure of the present invention and are mainly used to illustrate the embodiments and can be used in conjunction with the relevant descriptions in the specification to explain the operating principles of the embodiments. With reference to these contents, ordinary technicians in the field should be able to understand other possible implementations and advantages of the present invention. The components in the figures are not drawn to scale, and similar component symbols are generally used to represent similar components.

[0071] According to an embodiment of the present invention, a method and system for predicting load of a shore power system are provided.

[0072] The present invention is further described with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments:

[0073] Embodiment 1:

[0074] like Figure 1 As shown, a shore power system load prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0075] S1. Collect data submitted by ships moored at the port, count the maximum load of moored ships and calculate the standard allocation load of shore power through the ship shore power load estimation book, allocate shore power based on the standard allocation load of shore power, number the moored ships and create files, compile them into the port database, and calculate the surplus load of shore power;

[0076] S11. Based on the maximum shore power load of the ship on the shore power load estimation form submitted before the ship berths, obtain the standard distributed load of the shore power of the ship ;

[0077] S12, through Establish a port vessel management database, number the vessels moored at the port and create files, which include the vessel number, vessel shore power load estimation, vessel shore power standard allocation load, berthing time, and delete the files of vessels leaving the port every day;

[0078] S13. Calculate the daily shore power surplus load based on the ship shore power standard distribution load in the port ship management database. The algorithm formula is:

[0079] ;

[0080] in, Represents the surplus load of shore power on that day, is the total shore power capacity of the port, The total load allocated to the shore power standard for moored ships on that day.

[0081] It should be noted that by deleting the files of departing ships every day, it is possible to avoid recording the shore power load of departing ships when calculating the daily shore power surplus load. Based on the daily shore power surplus load, it is possible to determine whether the total shore power capacity of the port can meet the shore power load of the ships about to enter the port, thereby facilitating the shore power allocation management of ships moored in the port.

[0082] S2. Record the actual daily power load of ships in port. For ships of the day, statistical periodic data is collected, the average actual power load of ships currently in port for a long time is recorded, and the actual distribution load of shore power of ships is set;

[0083] S21. Collect the actual daily power load of ships in the port and record the actual daily power load in the files of the corresponding ships;

[0084] S22: For files with a parking time exceeding The ship that has been moored for a day is marked as a long-term ship in the archive. The actual power load of the current ship that has been moored every day is counted, and the mean and standard deviation of the actual power load are calculated. The actual distribution load of the ship's shore power is set. The specific steps are as follows:

[0085] ;

[0086] ;

[0087] in, Represents the actual daily power load data of the ship, Represents the number and date respectively. For ships The average daily electricity load during the entire berthing period, Indicates ship The number of days parked, For ships The degree of fluctuation of daily electricity load relative to the mean, i.e., standard deviation;

[0088] Combining the average daily power load and standard deviation, the actual distributed load of the ship's shore power is calculated. The algorithm formula is:

[0089] ;

[0090] The actual daily ship shore power distribution load is recorded in the file of the current ship and replaces the actual daily ship shore power distribution load of the previous day.

[0091] It should be noted that It is a constant with a value between 1 and 3. It is usually set to 2 to ensure that the actual distributed load of the ship's shore power can meet the fluctuation of the average daily power load. The value is usually set to 7, and can also be set according to actual needs. The value of can be adjusted to meet the needs of different usage environments. By comparing the actual distributed load of the ship's shore power with the standard distributed load of the ship's shore power, the additional surplus load of the shore power can be obtained.

[0092] S3. When the surplus load of shore power is insufficient, the actual load data of ships not in port in history are collected, the meteorological factor ratio coefficient is calculated in combination with the meteorological temperature, and the shore power load of ships not in port is predicted in combination with the current meteorological data;

[0093] S31, surplus load compared to the other shore power supply Standard load sharing with shore power supply for ships not in port :

[0094] when ≥ When , it means that the current port shore power surplus load is sufficient to meet the shore power load of ships that have not entered the port, allowing ships to enter the port;

[0095] when < When , it means that the current port shore power surplus load is insufficient and cannot meet the shore power load of ships that have not entered the port. The historical actual load data of ships that have not entered the port and the corresponding weather temperature are collected;

[0096] S32, based on the historical actual load data of the ships that have not entered the port and the corresponding weather temperature, combined with the current ship meteorological factor ratio coefficient of the estimated load in the calculation book of the shore power load of the ships that have not entered the port, and through the meteorological forecast temperature during the pre-berthing period of the ships that have not entered the port, calculate the predicted distribution load of the ships that have not entered the port;

[0097] S321. The historical actual load data of the ships that have not entered the port and the corresponding weather temperature are divided based on the temperature range. The temperature range includes:

[0098] ≤-10, -10< ≤0, 0< ≤10、10< ≤20、20< ≤30、30< ≤40, >40;

[0099] The mean values ​​of the actual load data in the port in different temperature ranges are calculated respectively, and the algorithm formula is:

[0100] ;

[0101] in, Indicates the temperature range, Representatives in Temperature range in port actual load, is the total number of data points in the current temperature range;

[0102] S322, combined with the estimated load in the shore power load calculation book for ships not entering the port , respectively calculate the proportional coefficients in different temperature ranges, and the algorithm formula is:

[0103] ;

[0104] in, For vessels that are not currently in port Proportional coefficient within the temperature range;

[0105] It should be noted that under severe weather conditions, the air-conditioning equipment on the ship requires longer time and higher power to maintain a suitable temperature, and the refrigeration equipment requires higher cooling power at high temperatures, and the heating equipment requires higher heating power at low temperatures, which results in the actual power load of the ship in severe weather being greater than the estimated load in the ship's shore power load calculation book, and less than or equal to the measured maximum load in the ship's shore power load calculation book. By dividing different weather temperatures into intervals, the estimated load ratio coefficient of the ship under different weather conditions can be obtained to refine the estimated load of the ship under different weather conditions.

[0106] S323. The daily temperature forecast values ​​of the ships not entering the port during the expected berthing period are collected through the meteorological station, and the daily forecast load is calculated respectively. The algorithm formula is:

[0107] ;

[0108] in, Indicates the berthing date of the vessel that is not currently in port. The current berthing date for vessels not in port The daily forecast load under The berthing date for vessels that are not currently in port The proportional coefficient within the temperature range below is the proportion of the vessel not entering the port during the berthing period. Sort in descending order and select the first As a forecast of the load distribution for vessels not currently in port .

[0109] It should be noted that all By sorting in descending order, the maximum value of the predicted load can be selected as the predicted distribution load for the ships that have not yet entered the port, which will help to make more accurate power demand estimation and management.

[0110] S4. Based on the average actual power load and the predicted load distribution of ships not in the port, adjust the shore power distribution to meet the shore power usage of ships in the port;

[0111] S41. For long-term ships in the archive, by comparing the actual allocated load of the ship's shore power with the standard allocated load of the ship's shore power, the additional surplus load of the shore power of different ships is obtained;

[0112] S411. Based on the long-term vessels in the archive, all long-term vessels are sorted in descending order according to the length of time they have been moored and numbered, and the additional surplus load of shore power is calculated respectively. The algorithm formula is:

[0113] ;

[0114] in, Long-term ship numbers in descending order, Representative number is Long-term additional surplus load of ship shore power, Representative number is Long-term ship shore power standard distribution load, Representative number is The actual distribution load of long-term ship shore power.

[0115] It should be noted that by arranging the long-term ships in descending order according to the length of time they have been berthed, it can be ensured that there are enough calculation samples for the actual distributed load of the shore power of the ships, which can represent the actual distributed load of the shore power of the relevant long-term ships more accurately, thereby making the results of the additional surplus load of shore power more representative and accurate, and facilitating the subsequent adjustment of the standard distributed load of shore power for long-term ships.

[0116] S42, based on the extra surplus load of shore power for long-term ships, the predicted allocated load for ships not in port, and the surplus load of shore power, adjusting the standard allocated load of shore power for long-term ships to meet the shore power usage of ships in port;

[0117] S421. Calculate the load difference based on the surplus load of shore power and the predicted load of ships not yet in port. , and its algorithm formula is:

[0118] ;

[0119] when When ≤0, it means that the surplus load of shore power meets the predicted load allocation of ships that have not entered the port. The shore power load is allocated to the ships that have not entered the port according to the predicted load allocation of ships that have not entered the port, and the ships that have not entered the port are arranged to enter the port;

[0120] when When it is greater than 0, it means that the surplus load of shore power does not meet the predicted load allocation of ships that have not entered the port. The shore power load is redistributed in combination with the long-term surplus load of ship shore power.

[0121] S422. When the surplus load of shore power does not meet the predicted load distribution of the ships that have not entered the port, the surplus load of shore power is selected in sequence according to the serial numbering sequence of the long-term berthing time of the ships to accumulate and obtain the compensation load. The algorithm formula is:

[0122] ;

[0123] when ≥ , stop the accumulation of additional surplus load of shore power, based on The long-term ship number in the system is used to redistribute the shore power load to the selected long-term ships, and the predicted allocated load of the numbered ships is Replacement of vessel number , distribute shore power load to ships that have not entered the port according to the predicted load distribution of ships that have not entered the port, and arrange for ships that have not entered the port to enter the port;

[0124] when < When , it means that the current predicted load of the ships that have not entered the port exceeds the port's allocated carrying capacity, where .

[0125] It should be noted that by adjusting the shore power load for long-term ships, the shore power load demand of ships that have not entered the port can be maximized. By calculating the corrective load, priority is given to adjusting the shore power load for ships that have been berthed for a long time, thereby achieving effective allocation and utilization of port shore power.

[0126] Embodiment 2:

[0127] like Figure 2 As shown, a shore power system load prediction system includes a ship data collection module, a shore power surplus calculation module, a distribution load calculation module, a port carrying capacity calculation module, and a shore power load adjustment module:

[0128] The ship data collection module collects the submitted data of the ships moored at the port, combines the ship shore power load estimation book, counts the maximum load of the moored ships and calculates the standard allocated load of the ship shore power, establishes a port ship management library, numbers the moored ships and creates files, which include the ship number, ship shore power load estimation book, ship shore power standard allocated load, mooring time, and deletes the files of ships leaving the port every day;

[0129] The shore power surplus calculation module calculates the shore power surplus load of the day based on the total shore power capacity of the port and the sum of the shore power standard allocation load of the moored ships on that day;

[0130] The load calculation module collects the actual daily power load of ships in port and records it in the corresponding ship files. The ships that have been moored for days are marked as long-term ships in the archives. The actual power load of the current ship that has been moored every day is counted, and the mean and standard deviation of the actual power load are calculated to set the actual distribution load of the ship's shore power.

[0131] The port carrying capacity calculation module collects the actual load data of ships that have not entered the port in history when the surplus load of shore power is insufficient, calculates the meteorological factor ratio coefficient based on the meteorological temperature, predicts the shore power load of ships that have not entered the port based on the current meteorological data, allocates the load based on the surplus load of shore power and the predicted load of ships that have not entered the port, and calculates the load difference;

[0132] The shore power load adjustment module compares the actual shore power allocation load of the ship with the standard shore power allocation load of the ship for the long-term ships in the archives to obtain the additional surplus load of shore power for different ships. According to the load difference and the additional surplus load of shore power for long-term ships, the standard shore power allocation load of long-term ships is adjusted to meet the shore power usage of port ships.

[0133] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A shore power system load prediction method, characterized in that: The method comprises the following steps: S1. Collect data submitted by ships moored at the port, count the maximum load of moored ships and calculate the standard allocation load of shore power through the ship shore power load estimation book, allocate shore power based on the standard allocation load of shore power, number the moored ships and create files, compile them into the port database, and calculate the surplus load of shore power; S2. Record the actual daily power load of ships in port. For ships of the day, statistical periodic data is collected, the average actual power load of ships currently in port for a long time is recorded, and the actual distribution load of ship shore power is set; S21. Collect the actual daily power load of ships in the port and record the actual daily power load in the files of the corresponding ships; S22: For files with a parking time exceeding The ship that has been moored for a day is marked as a long-term ship in the archive. The actual power load of the current ship that has been moored every day is counted, and the mean and standard deviation of the actual power load are calculated. The actual distribution load of the ship's shore power is set. The specific steps are as follows: ； ； in, Represents the actual daily power load data of the ship, Represents the number and date respectively. For ships The average daily electricity load during the entire berthing period, Indicates ship The number of days parked, For ships The degree of fluctuation of daily electricity load relative to the mean, i.e., standard deviation; Combining the average daily power load and standard deviation, the actual distributed load of the ship's shore power is calculated. The algorithm formula is: ； Record the actual daily shore power distribution load of the ship in the file of the current ship and replace the actual daily shore power distribution load of the ship on the previous day; S3. When the surplus load of shore power is insufficient, the actual load data of ships not in port in history are collected, the meteorological factor ratio coefficient is calculated in combination with the meteorological temperature, and the shore power load of ships not in port is predicted in combination with the current meteorological data; S4. Based on the average actual power load and the predicted load distribution of ships not yet in port, adjust the shore power distribution to meet the shore power usage of ships in the port.

2. A shore power system load prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The S1 comprises the following steps: S11. Based on the maximum shore power load of the ship on the shore power load estimation form submitted before the ship berths, obtain the standard distributed load of the shore power of the ship ; S12, through Establish a port vessel management database, number the vessels moored at the port and create files, which include the vessel number, vessel shore power load estimation, vessel shore power standard allocation load, berthing time, and delete the files of vessels leaving the port every day; S13. Calculate the daily shore power surplus load based on the standard allocation load of the ship shore power in the port ship management database. The algorithm formula is: ； in, Represents the surplus load of shore power on that day, is the total shore power capacity of the port, The total load allocated to the shore power standard for moored ships on that day.

3. A shore power system load prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The S3 comprises the following sub-steps: S31, surplus load compared to the other shore power supply Standard load sharing with shore power supply for ships not in port : when ≥ When , it means that the current port shore power surplus load is sufficient to meet the shore power load of ships that have not entered the port, allowing ships to enter the port; when < When , it means that the current port shore power surplus load is insufficient and cannot meet the shore power load of ships that have not entered the port. The historical actual load data of ships that have not entered the port and the corresponding weather temperature are collected; S32. Based on the actual load data of the ships that have not entered the port in history and the corresponding weather temperature, combined with the current ship meteorological factor ratio coefficient of the estimated load in the calculation book of the shore power load of the ships that have not entered the port, and through the meteorological forecast temperature during the pre-berthing period of the ships that have not entered the port, calculate the predicted distribution load of the ships that have not entered the port.

4. A shore power system load prediction method according to claim 3, characterized in that: The S32 includes the following sub-steps: S321. The historical actual load data of the ships that have not entered the port and the corresponding weather temperature are divided based on the temperature range. The temperature range includes: ≤-10、-10＜ ≤0、0＜ ≤10、10＜ ≤20、20＜ ≤30、30＜ ≤40、 ＞40； The mean values ​​of the actual load data in the port in different temperature ranges are calculated respectively, and the algorithm formula is: ； in, Indicates the temperature range, Representatives in Temperature range in port actual load, is the total number of data points in the current temperature range; S322, combined with the estimated load in the shore power load calculation book for ships not entering the port , respectively calculate the proportional coefficients in different temperature ranges, and the algorithm formula is: ； in, For vessels that are not currently in port Proportional coefficient within the temperature range; S323. The daily temperature forecast values ​​of the ships not entering the port during the expected berthing period are collected through the meteorological station, and the daily forecast load is calculated respectively. The algorithm formula is: ； in, Indicates the berthing date of the vessel that is not currently in port. The current berthing date for vessels not in port The daily forecast load under The berthing date for vessels that are not currently in port The proportional coefficient within the temperature range below is the proportion of the vessel not entering the port during the berthing period. Sort in descending order and select the first As a forecast of the load distribution for vessels not currently in port .

5. A shore power system load prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The S4 comprises the following sub-steps: S41. For long-term ships in the archive, by comparing the actual allocated load of the ship's shore power with the standard allocated load of the ship's shore power, the additional surplus load of the shore power of different ships is obtained; S42. Based on the extra surplus load of shore power for long-term ships, the predicted allocated load for ships not in port, and the surplus load of shore power, the standard allocated load of shore power for long-term ships is adjusted to meet the shore power usage of ships in port.

6. A shore power system load prediction method according to claim 5, characterized in that: The S41 comprises the following sub-steps: S411. Based on the long-term vessels in the archive, all long-term vessels are sorted in descending order according to the length of time they have been moored and numbered, and the additional surplus load of shore power is calculated respectively. The algorithm formula is: ； in, Long-term ship numbers in descending order, Representative number is Long-term additional surplus load of ship shore power, Representative number is Long-term ship shore power standard distribution load, Representative number is The actual distribution load of long-term ship shore power.

7. A shore power system load prediction method according to claim 6, characterized in that: The S42 comprises the following sub-steps: S421. Calculate the load difference based on the surplus load of shore power and the predicted load of ships not yet in port. , and its algorithm formula is: ； when When ≤0, it means that the surplus load of shore power meets the predicted load allocation of ships that have not entered the port. The shore power load is allocated to the ships that have not entered the port according to the predicted load allocation of ships that have not entered the port, and the ships that have not entered the port are arranged to enter the port; when When it is greater than 0, it means that the surplus load of shore power does not meet the predicted load allocation of ships that have not entered the port. The shore power load is redistributed in combination with the long-term surplus load of ship shore power. S422. When the surplus load of shore power does not meet the predicted load distribution of the ships that have not entered the port, the surplus load of shore power is selected in sequence according to the serial numbering sequence of the long-term berthing time of the ships to accumulate and obtain the compensation load. The algorithm formula is: ； when ≥ , stop the accumulation of additional surplus load of shore power, based on The long-term ship number in the system is used to redistribute the shore power load to the selected long-term ships, and the predicted allocated load of the numbered ships is Replacement of vessel number , distribute shore power load to ships that have not entered the port according to the predicted load distribution of ships that have not entered the port, and arrange for ships that have not entered the port to enter the port; when < When , it means that the current predicted load of the ships that have not entered the port exceeds the port's allocated carrying capacity, where .

8. A shore power system load forecasting system, characterized in that: The method adopts a shore power system load prediction method as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7, including a ship data collection module, a shore power surplus calculation module, a distribution load calculation module, a port carrying capacity calculation module, and a shore power load adjustment module: The ship data collection module collects the submitted data of the ships moored at the port, combines the ship shore power load estimation book, counts the maximum load of the moored ships and calculates the standard allocated load of the ship shore power, establishes a port ship management library, numbers the moored ships and creates files, which include the ship number, the ship shore power load estimation book, the ship shore power standard allocated load, and the mooring time, and deletes the files of ships leaving the port every day; The shore power surplus calculation module calculates the shore power surplus load of the day based on the total shore power capacity of the port and the sum of the shore power standard allocation load of the moored ships on the day; The load distribution calculation module collects the actual daily power load of ships in the port and records the actual daily power load in the files of the corresponding ships. The ships that have been moored for days are marked as long-term ships in the archives. The actual power load of the current ship that has been moored every day is counted, and the mean and standard deviation of the actual power load are calculated to set the actual distribution load of the ship's shore power. The port carrying capacity calculation module, when the surplus load of shore power is insufficient, collects the historical actual load data of ships that have not entered the port, calculates the meteorological factor ratio coefficient in combination with the meteorological temperature, predicts the shore power load of ships that have not entered the port in combination with the current meteorological data, allocates the load according to the surplus load of shore power and the predicted load of ships that have not entered the port, and calculates the load difference; The shore power load adjustment module, for the long-term ships in the archive, obtains the extra surplus load of shore power of different ships by comparing the actual allocated load of shore power of the ships with the standard allocated load of shore power of the ships, and adjusts the standard allocated load of shore power of the long-term ships according to the load difference and the extra surplus load of shore power of the long-term ships to meet the shore power usage of the port ships.

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