Power grid investment decision-making method and device about power transmission and distribution price and price checking time sequence

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of power grid investment, and particularly discloses a power grid investment decision-making method and device about a power transmission and distribution price and a price checking time sequence. Comprising the steps of obtaining historical investment data of a power grid project, determining influence parameters, determining influence data based on the influence parameters and performing calculation to obtain an incremental power transmission and distribution electricity price model, performing electric quantity fitting according to the historical investment data to obtain a power transmission and distribution electricity quantity increasing model, and performing calculation based on the power transmission and distribution electricity quantity increasing model and the incremental power transmission and distribution electricity price increasing model. The method comprises the steps of determining investment increment earnings, determining an input-output model based on the investment increment earnings in combination with a cash flow graph, and constructing an investment objective function and constraint conditions according to the input-output model so as to obtain a power grid investment decision model. The investment project can be subjected to economic evaluation before project implementation, the defects of a traditional input-output evaluation model are overcome, and a new project input-output evaluation method and an investment decision-making method are provided for power grid investment.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of artificial intelligence, and in particular to a method and device for making decisions on power grid investment regarding transmission and distribution prices and price sequence. Background Art

[0002] Against the backdrop of the current energy transformation and rapid development of smart grid technology, investment decisions and management of power grid projects are becoming increasingly complex. In particular, the in-depth implementation of transmission and distribution price reform has had a further impact on the investment and profit models of power grid companies.

[0003] Traditional input-output models for power grid investment projects focus on evaluating the direct economic benefits and costs of power grid infrastructure construction or upgrades, emphasizing the immediate improvement of capital investment and operational efficiency. Traditional models often use static analysis methods, focusing on cost-benefit analysis before project implementation, ignoring the dynamic changes in the power market, the long-term sustainability of power grid operations, and the impact of policy and environmental factors on the entire life cycle of the project. Although this method has practical value in resource allocation and initial investment decisions, it is not flexible and forward-looking enough in responding to rapidly changing market demands and promoting long-term stable operation of the power grid. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the above problems, an object of the present invention is to provide a power grid investment decision-making method regarding transmission and distribution prices and price sequence.

[0005] The second object of the present invention is to provide a power grid investment decision-making device regarding transmission and distribution prices and price sequence.

[0006] The first technical solution adopted by the present invention is: S1, obtaining historical investment data of power grid projects and determining influencing parameters; S2. Based on the influencing parameters, determine the influencing data and perform calculations to obtain an incremental transmission and distribution price model; S3. Performing power fitting based on the historical investment data to obtain a model for increasing transmission and distribution power; S4. Determine the incremental investment return based on the incremental transmission and distribution quantity model and the incremental transmission and distribution price model; S5. Determine an input-output model based on the incremental investment income and the cash flow diagram; S6. According to the input-output model, an investment objective function and constraint conditions are constructed to obtain a power grid investment decision model.

[0007] Optionally, S2 includes: S21. Based on the impact parameters, determine that the impact data includes depreciation expenses, operation and maintenance expenses, and permitted income; S22, respectively calculating the depreciation cost, operation and maintenance cost and permitted income to obtain three cost calculation formulas; S23. According to the three cost calculation formulas, the incremental transmission and distribution price model is determined as follows: ; In the formula, is the incremental transmission and distribution price; is the depreciation amount of the asset, Incremental operation and maintenance costs. For incremental permitted earnings, It refers to the transmission and distribution volume of power grid companies during the new round of transmission and distribution price supervision cycle.

[0008] Optionally, the S3 includes: S31. Based on the historical investment data, normalize the data using a Z-Score standardization method to obtain normalized data; S32, based on the normalized data, introducing a hysteresis parameter, performing comparative screening through parameter fitting simulation, and determining an optimal hysteresis parameter value; S33. Based on the optimal lag parameter values, multiple linear regression fitting is used to determine the data quantification relationship, and then the increased transmission and distribution volume model is obtained.

[0009] Optionally, the incremental investment benefit of S4 includes: The first type of incremental benefits: ; In the formula, It is the first type of incremental output income generated after the new investment project is put into production. The base amount of electricity transmitted and distributed; The second type of incremental benefits: ; In the formula, It is the second type of incremental output income generated after the new investment project is put into production. is the base transmission and distribution price, The incremental transmission and distribution capacity brought by the project; The third type of incremental benefits: ; In the formula, It is the third type of incremental output income generated after the new investment project is put into production. The incremental power transmission and distribution brought by this project is The incremental transmission and distribution price brought by the project.

[0010] Optionally, the S5 includes: S51, analyzing the historical investment data to determine the cash flow diagram; S52, based on the cash flow diagram and the incremental investment income, obtain the time nodes of key indicators after combined analysis; S53. Construct the input-output model according to the time nodes of the key indicators, wherein the input-output model is: ; In the formula, is the total incremental benefit of the new investment project in the power grid, is the total investment cost of the power grid project, is the project operation and maintenance cost at time point t, , , are the first, second, and third types of incremental benefits at time point t, and are the project commissioning time and project capital transfer time respectively, T is the project shutdown time, and r is the benchmark discount rate in the industry.

[0011] Optionally, in S6, The objective function is, ; In the formula, R is the total revenue, is the decision variable, is the total incremental benefit of the new investment project in the power grid; The constraints include: The load ratio constraint is: ; In the formula, is the power grid investment decision variable, The additional capacity brought by the investment project, is the original capacity, L is the average load of the main line of the entire power grid device, and are the minimum and maximum values ​​of the capacity ratio respectively; The investment capacity constraint is, ; In the formula, is the power grid investment decision variable, is the investment amount of the project, V is the maximum investment capacity of the power grid enterprise within the planning time; The expected return constraint is, ; In the formula, The expected output benefits of the project, The lower limit of investment returns planned for power grid enterprises; The mutual exclusion constraint for items is, ; In the formula, is the decision variable for power grid investment.

[0012] The second technical solution adopted by the present invention is: a data acquisition module is used to obtain historical investment data of power grid projects and determine influencing parameters; An impact data calculation module, used to determine and calculate the impact data based on the impact parameters to obtain an incremental transmission and distribution price model; A fitting module, used to perform power fitting based on the historical investment data to obtain a model for increasing transmission and distribution power; A revenue determination module, used to determine the incremental revenue of investment based on the incremental transmission and distribution quantity model and the incremental transmission and distribution price model; A production model determination module, used to determine the input-output model based on the incremental investment income and in combination with a cash flow diagram; The decision model determination module is used to construct an investment objective function and constraint conditions according to the input-output model, and then obtain a power grid investment decision model.

[0013] Optionally, the impact data calculation module includes: An impact data determination module, used to determine the impact data including depreciation expenses, operation and maintenance expenses and permitted income based on the impact parameters; The income calculation module is used to calculate the depreciation cost, operation and maintenance cost and permitted income respectively to obtain three cost calculation formulas; The power distribution price model determination module is used to determine the incremental power transmission and distribution price model according to the three cost calculation formulas: ; In the formula, is the incremental transmission and distribution price; is the depreciation amount of the asset, Incremental operation and maintenance costs. For incremental permitted earnings, It refers to the transmission and distribution volume of power grid companies during the new round of transmission and distribution price supervision cycle.

[0014] Optionally, the fitting module includes: A normalization module, used to perform data normalization based on the historical investment data using a Z-Score normalization method to obtain normalized data; A hysteresis parameter determination module is used to introduce hysteresis parameters based on the normalized data, and to determine the optimal hysteresis parameter value by performing comparison and screening through parameter fitting simulation; The linear fitting module is used to determine the data quantification relationship based on the optimal lag parameter value and to obtain the increased transmission and distribution quantity model by using multiple linear regression fitting.

[0015] Optionally, the production model determination module includes: A cash flow analysis module, used to analyze the historical investment data and determine the cash flow diagram; A node determination module, used to obtain the time nodes of key indicators after combined analysis based on the cash flow diagram and the incremental investment income; A model building module is used to build the input-output model according to the time nodes of the key indicators, wherein the input-output model is: ; In the formula, is the total incremental benefit of the new investment project in the power grid, is the total investment cost of the power grid project, is the project operation and maintenance cost at time point t, , , are the first, second, and third types of incremental benefits at time point t, and are the project commissioning time and project capital transfer time respectively, T is the project shutdown time, and r is the benchmark discount rate in the industry.

[0016] Beneficial effects of the above technical solution: The present invention obtains historical investment data of power grid projects, determines influencing parameters, determines influencing data based on the influencing parameters and performs calculations to obtain an incremental transmission and distribution price model, performs power fitting based on the historical investment data to obtain an incremental transmission and distribution model, determines investment incremental revenue based on the incremental transmission and distribution model and the incremental transmission and distribution price model, determines an input-output model based on the investment incremental revenue and in combination with a cash flow diagram, constructs an investment objective function and constraint conditions based on the input-output model, and then obtains a power grid investment decision model. It can not only conduct an economic evaluation of an investment project before the project is implemented, but also make up for the shortcomings of the traditional input-output evaluation model, and provide a new project input-output evaluation method and investment decision-making method for power grid investment. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0017] Figure 1 A flow chart of a power grid investment decision-making method regarding transmission and distribution prices and price sequence provided by the present invention; Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the structure of a power grid investment decision-making device regarding transmission and distribution prices and price verification timing provided by the present invention; Figure 3Build logical diagrams for input-output models; Figure 4 Schematic diagram of the input-output model. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0018] The following detailed description of the embodiments of the present invention is further described in detail in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and examples. The detailed description of the following embodiments and the accompanying drawings are used to exemplarily illustrate the principles of the present invention, but cannot be used to limit the scope of the present invention, that is, the present invention is not limited to the preferred embodiments described, and the scope of the present invention is defined by the claims.

[0019] In the description of the present invention, it should be noted that, unless otherwise specified, “plurality” means two or more than two; the terms “first”, “second”, etc. are only used for descriptive purposes and cannot be understood as indicating or implying relative importance; for ordinary technicians in this field, the specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood according to the specific circumstances.

[0020] Embodiment 1 An embodiment of the present invention provides a power grid investment decision-making method regarding transmission and distribution prices and price sequence, such as Figure 1 As shown, S1. Obtain historical investment data of power grid projects and determine influencing parameters; Identification and calculation of project benefits. Project benefits refer to the positive impact of power grid projects on the existing power grid after they are put into operation and converted into capital, including two parameters: incremental transmission and distribution price and incremental transmission and distribution volume.

[0021] The incremental transmission and distribution price refers to the impact of the project investment on the transmission and distribution price during the regulatory period, which is generally manifested as an increase in the transmission and distribution price.

[0022] The impact of investment projects on transmission and distribution prices generally lies in three aspects: depreciation, operation and maintenance, and permitted returns.

[0023] S2. Based on the influencing parameters, determine the influencing data and perform calculations to obtain an incremental transmission and distribution price model; S21. Based on the impact parameters, determine that the impact data includes depreciation expenses, operation and maintenance expenses, and permitted income; S22, respectively calculating the depreciation cost, operation and maintenance cost and permitted income to obtain three cost calculation formulas; (1) Depreciation expense: The depreciation calculation formula for new assets brought about by the investment project is: ; Where: It represents the depreciation amount of the assets of the new project invested; The investment amount of the new investment project, that is, the input cost of the project; The fixed asset ratio for the investment in this project; is the depreciation rate of the new asset.

[0024] (2) Operation and maintenance costs: Operation and maintenance costs are generally related to the original value of fixed assets, and the calculation formula is: ; Where: Represents the incremental operation and maintenance costs of the new projects invested; The investment amount of the new investment project, that is, the input cost of the project; The fixed asset ratio for the investment in this project; It is the operation and maintenance rate during the new round of transmission and distribution price supervision cycle.

[0025] (3) Allowable income: The calculation formula for the allowable income is: ; Where: It represents the incremental permitted returns of new projects invested; The investment amount for the new investment project; The fixed asset ratio for the investment in this project; It is the net asset return rate during the new round of transmission and distribution price regulation cycle.

[0026] S23. According to the three cost calculation formulas, the incremental transmission and distribution price model is determined as follows: ; In the formula, is the incremental transmission and distribution price; is the depreciation amount of the asset, Incremental operation and maintenance costs. For incremental permitted earnings, It refers to the transmission and distribution volume of power grid companies during the new round of transmission and distribution price supervision cycle.

[0027] S3. Performing power fitting based on the historical investment data to obtain a model for increasing transmission and distribution power; The incremental transmission and distribution volume refers to the impact of the project investment on the transmission and distribution volume of power grid enterprises during the regulatory period, which is generally manifested as an increase in transmission and distribution volume.

[0028] The incremental transmission and distribution capacity is determined by fitting the capacity based on the historical investment data of the power grid.

[0029] The length of new lines and substation capacity added by power grid companies each year are core indicators of power grid infrastructure construction. The construction and expansion of power grid infrastructure is usually aimed at improving power supply capacity to meet the growing demand for electricity, thereby attracting more users to access the grid and increase electricity consumption.

[0030] Therefore, this study takes the annual increase in electricity sales as the dependent variable, the newly added length of the commissioned line and the newly added commissioned transformer capacity as the independent variables, and determines the quantitative relationship between the newly added length of the commissioned line and the newly added commissioned transformer capacity and the annual increase in electricity sales through a multivariate linear regression fitting model.

[0031] S31. Based on the historical investment data, normalize the data using a Z-Score standardization method to obtain normalized data; Collect historical data: Collect data from the power grid company over the past few years, including the length of newly commissioned lines, newly commissioned substation capacity, and the corresponding annual electricity sales volume increase data.

[0032] Data normalization: Since the various types of data collected have different dimensions, in order to eliminate the impact of the dimension on the model and make the model treat each variable more fairly, and also to avoid the accumulation of numerical calculation errors that may be caused by larger or smaller values, thereby affecting the stability and accuracy of the model, the data must be normalized before fitting the historical data to make the model coefficients more interpretable.

[0033] The data were fitted using the Z-Score standardization method.

[0034] The principle of Z-Score normalization is to convert the original data into data that conforms to the normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. This method does not have a fixed range for mapping data, which is determined by the mean and standard deviation of the data itself. The specific normalization is shown in the following formula: ; Where: is the normalized value, is the original value, is the mean of the original data, is the standard deviation of the original data.

[0035] S32, based on the normalized data, introducing a hysteresis parameter, performing comparative screening through parameter fitting simulation, and determining an optimal hysteresis parameter value; Establish a fitting model: Based on the collected data, take the annual increase in electricity sales as the dependent variable, and the newly added length of the commissioned lines and the newly added commissioned transformer capacity as the independent variables. The quantitative relationship between the newly added length of the commissioned lines and the newly added commissioned transformer capacity and the annual increase in electricity sales is determined through a multivariate linear regression fitting model.

[0036] In the preliminary model fitting, the credibility of the fitting results using historical data with the same time span and frequency is not high. Considering the possible time lag between line length and transformer capacity and transmission and distribution power, a lag parameter is introduced in the fitting process.

[0037] In order to determine the optimal value of the hysteresis parameter, different values ​​of the hysteresis parameter are selected for data experiments. The goodness of fit and regression coefficient of the fitting experiment with different hysteresis parameters show that the fitting result with the newly added line length in the (t-1)th year and the newly added transformer capacity in the tth year as the independent variable and the newly added transmission and distribution power in the tth year as the dependent variable has the highest significance. The fitting results show that: ; Where: It indicates the additional transmission and distribution electricity brought about by the investment and commissioning of a project in the region; The total length of new lines added by all projects in the region and that year, in kilometers; It is the total newly added transformer capacity of all projects in the region and that year, unit: 10,000 kilovolt-amperes; and are the fitting coefficients of the newly added line length and the newly added transformer capacity, respectively, which are determined by the multivariate linear regression fitting model.

[0038] S33. Based on the optimal lag parameter values, multiple linear regression fitting is used to determine the data quantification relationship, and then the increased transmission and distribution volume model is obtained.

[0039] S4. Determine the incremental investment return based on the incremental transmission and distribution quantity model and the incremental transmission and distribution price model; The incremental benefits of investment include: The first type of incremental revenue is brought about by changes in electricity prices. Changes in transmission and distribution prices are affected by the increase in depreciation and operation and maintenance related expenses caused by the transfer of investment projects. The impact of project transfer on depreciation, operation and maintenance, and permitted income of power grid companies will further lead to changes in transmission and distribution prices. At this time, considering the joint impact of the original base transmission and distribution volume and the newly added incremental transmission and distribution prices, the first type of incremental revenue is formed: ; In the formula, It is the first type of incremental output income generated after the new investment project is put into production. The base amount of electricity transmitted and distributed; The second type of incremental revenue is brought about by changes in electricity volume. After the projects with different voltage levels are put into operation, they will have a certain impact on the transmission and distribution volume within the power grid enterprise area. This impact is generally positive, which will generate incremental transmission and distribution volume. At this time, considering the joint impact of the original base transmission and distribution price and the newly added incremental transmission and distribution volume, the second type of incremental revenue is formed: ; In the formula, It is the second type of incremental output income generated after the new investment project is put into production. is the base transmission and distribution price, The incremental transmission and distribution capacity brought by the project; The third type of incremental revenue comes from the dual impact of electricity prices and electricity volume. According to the above analysis, after the alternative projects are put into operation and transferred, they will have a corresponding impact on the transmission and distribution prices and transmission and distribution volumes in the power grid enterprise area, thereby generating incremental transmission and distribution prices and incremental transmission and distribution volumes. The above two types of incremental revenue only consider the impact of a single increment on the overall output benefits of the project. Therefore, the third type of incremental revenue is formed by comprehensively considering the joint impact of incremental transmission and distribution prices and incremental transmission and distribution volumes: ; In the formula, It is the third type of incremental output income generated after the new investment project is put into production. The incremental power transmission and distribution brought by this project is The incremental transmission and distribution price brought by the project.

[0040] like Figure 3 and Figure 4 As shown, S5, based on the incremental investment income and in combination with the cash flow diagram, determine the input-output model; The power grid project input-output model in the present invention is established based on the research of three dimensions: capital transfer time, transfer cost and production effect.

[0041] The transfer time refers to the time point when the depreciation of the assets of the power grid investment project is included in the next round of transmission and distribution prices. The input-output model constructed by the present invention is based on the cash flow model, and ultimately the net present value of the project's incremental revenue is used as the output benefit of the entire project. Therefore, the time value of money should be taken into account during the evaluation process. The transfer time is a key indicator that affects the time point when the project's revenue flows into the cash flow model.

[0042] Transfer-in costs are the costs that can be included in the transmission and distribution price in the total investment cost of the new power grid investment project itself. Power grid projects are characterized by large investment amounts and long construction times. After the project investment, it will affect the depreciation of fixed assets of power grid companies, enterprise operation and maintenance, and other expenses that can be included in the transmission and distribution price. According to the latest transmission and distribution price policy, not only are the depreciation and operation and maintenance fees in the permissible costs related to the original value of the fixed assets of power grid companies, but their permissible income is also affected by the original value of fixed assets. Therefore, the output effect of power grid investment projects is also related to the transfer-in costs.

[0043] The production effect mainly refers to the three types of incremental benefits of the investment projects determined above.

[0044] The initial investment cost of the project construction will be used as the capital outflow, and the outflow time point will be at the starting point of the cash flow diagram; the annual operation and maintenance costs of the power grid project will also be used as the capital outflow; the first type of incremental income of the power grid investment project will be used as the cash inflow, and its inflow time point will be after the project is put into operation; the second and third types of incremental income of the power grid investment project will also be used as the cash inflow, and its inflow time point will be after the project is transferred.

[0045] S51, analyzing the historical investment data to determine the cash flow diagram; S52, based on the cash flow diagram and the incremental investment income, obtain the time nodes of key indicators after combined analysis; S53. Construct the input-output model according to the time nodes of the key indicators, wherein the input-output model is: ; In the formula, is the total incremental benefit of the new investment project in the power grid, is the total investment cost of the power grid project, is the project operation and maintenance cost at time point t, , , are the first, second, and third types of incremental benefits at time point t, and are the project commissioning time and project capital transfer time respectively, T is the project shutdown time, and r is the benchmark discount rate in the industry.

[0046] In this model, the initial investment cost of the project construction will be used as the capital outflow, and the outflow time point will be at the starting point of the cash flow diagram; the first type of incremental income of the power grid investment project will be used as the cash inflow, and its inflow time point will be after the project is put into operation; the second and third types of incremental income of the power grid investment project will also be used as the cash inflow, and its inflow time point will be after the project is transferred.

[0047] S6. According to the input-output model, an investment objective function and constraint conditions are constructed to obtain a power grid investment decision model.

[0048] The objective function is, ; In the formula, R is the total revenue, is the decision variable, is the total incremental benefit of the new investment project in the power grid; The constraints include: The load ratio constraint of the investment project should meet the requirements of the "Guidelines for Urban Power Grid Planning and Design". ; In the formula, is the power grid investment decision variable, The additional capacity brought by the investment project, is the original capacity, L is the average load of the main line of the entire power grid device, and are the minimum and maximum values ​​of the capacity ratio respectively; Investment capacity constraint: the total investment amount of all projects to be invested should not exceed the maximum investment capacity of the power grid enterprise. ; In the formula, is the power grid investment decision variable, is the investment amount of the project, V is the maximum investment capacity of the power grid enterprise within the planning time; The expected return constraint is, ; In the formula, The expected output benefits of the project, The lower limit of investment returns planned for power grid enterprises; Project mutual exclusion constraint Consider that there are x groups of projects, each group contains y projects, and the investment in projects within each group is mutually exclusive. That is, the sum of the investment decision variables of the projects in the group is less than or equal to 1, which is, ; ; In the formula, is the power grid investment decision variable, is the decision variable for power grid investment.

[0049] This embodiment is a power grid investment decision-making method about the transmission and distribution price and the time series of the price verification, including obtaining the historical investment data of the power grid project, determining the influencing parameters, determining the influencing data based on the influencing parameters and calculating, obtaining the incremental transmission and distribution price model, performing power fitting based on the historical investment data, obtaining the increased transmission and distribution model, determining the incremental investment income based on the increased transmission and distribution model and the incremental transmission and distribution price model, determining the input-output model based on the incremental investment income in combination with the cash flow diagram, constructing the investment objective function and constraint conditions based on the input-output model, and then obtaining the power grid investment decision-making model. It can not only evaluate the economic feasibility of the investment project before the project is implemented, but also make up for the shortcomings of the traditional input-output evaluation model, and provide a new project input-output evaluation method and investment decision-making method for power grid investment.

[0050] Embodiment 2

[0051] An embodiment of the present invention provides a power grid investment decision-making device 200 for transmission and distribution price and price sequence, such as Figure 2 As shown, including: The data acquisition module 201 is used to acquire historical investment data of power grid projects and determine influencing parameters; An impact data calculation module 202 is used to determine and calculate the impact data based on the impact parameters to obtain an incremental transmission and distribution price model; A fitting module 203 is used to perform power fitting based on the historical investment data to obtain a model for increasing transmission and distribution power; A revenue determination module 204, configured to determine the incremental revenue of investment based on the incremental transmission and distribution quantity model and the incremental transmission and distribution price model; The production model determination module 205 is used to determine the input-output model based on the incremental investment income and in combination with the cash flow diagram; The decision model determination module 206 is used to construct an investment objective function and constraint conditions according to the input-output model, and then obtain a power grid investment decision model.

[0052] Furthermore, the impact data calculation module 202 includes: An impact data determination module, used to determine the impact data including depreciation expenses, operation and maintenance expenses and permitted income based on the impact parameters; The income calculation module is used to calculate the depreciation cost, operation and maintenance cost and permitted income respectively to obtain three cost calculation formulas; The power distribution price model determination module is used to determine the incremental power transmission and distribution price model according to the three cost calculation formulas: ; In the formula, is the incremental transmission and distribution price; is the depreciation amount of the asset, Incremental operation and maintenance costs. For incremental permitted earnings, It refers to the transmission and distribution volume of power grid companies during the new round of transmission and distribution price supervision cycle.

[0053] Furthermore, the fitting module 203 includes: A normalization module, used to perform data normalization based on the historical investment data using a Z-Score normalization method to obtain normalized data; A hysteresis parameter determination module is used to introduce hysteresis parameters based on the normalized data, and to determine the optimal hysteresis parameter value by performing comparison and screening through parameter fitting simulation; The linear fitting module is used to determine the data quantification relationship based on the optimal lag parameter value and to obtain the increased transmission and distribution quantity model by using multiple linear regression fitting.

[0054] Furthermore, the production model determination module 205 includes: A cash flow analysis module, used to analyze the historical investment data and determine the cash flow diagram; A node determination module, used to obtain the time nodes of key indicators after combined analysis based on the cash flow diagram and the incremental investment income; A model building module is used to build the input-output model according to the time nodes of the key indicators, wherein the input-output model is: ; In the formula, is the total incremental benefit of the new investment project in the power grid, is the total investment cost of the power grid project, is the project operation and maintenance cost at time point t, , , are the first, second, and third types of incremental benefits at time point t, and are the project commissioning time and project capital transfer time respectively, T is the project shutdown time, and r is the benchmark discount rate in the industry.

[0055] The above is only a specific embodiment of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art can easily think of changes or substitutions within the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, which should be included in the protection scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention should be based on the protection scope of the claims.

Claims

1. A power grid investment decision-making method for transmission and distribution prices and price sequence, characterized in that: include: S1. Obtain historical investment data of power grid projects and determine influencing parameters; S2. Based on the influencing parameters, determine the influencing data and perform calculations to obtain an incremental transmission and distribution price model; S3. Performing power fitting based on the historical investment data to obtain a model for increasing transmission and distribution power; S4. Determine the incremental investment return based on the incremental transmission and distribution quantity model and the incremental transmission and distribution price model; S5. Determine an input-output model based on the incremental investment income and the cash flow diagram; S6. According to the input-output model, an investment objective function and constraint conditions are constructed to obtain a power grid investment decision model.

2. The power grid investment decision-making method regarding transmission and distribution prices and price sequence according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The S2 includes: S21. Based on the impact parameters, determine that the impact data includes depreciation expenses, operation and maintenance expenses, and permitted income; S22, respectively calculating the depreciation cost, operation and maintenance cost and permitted income to obtain three cost calculation formulas; S23. According to the three cost calculation formulas, the incremental transmission and distribution price model is determined as follows: ； In the formula, is the incremental transmission and distribution price; is the depreciation amount of the asset, Incremental operation and maintenance costs. For incremental permitted earnings, It refers to the transmission and distribution volume of power grid companies during the new round of transmission and distribution price supervision cycle.

3. The power grid investment decision-making method regarding transmission and distribution prices and price sequence according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The S3 includes: S31. Based on the historical investment data, normalize the data using a Z-Score standardization method to obtain normalized data; S32, based on the normalized data, introducing a hysteresis parameter, performing comparative screening through parameter fitting simulation, and determining an optimal hysteresis parameter value; S33. Based on the optimal lag parameter values, multiple linear regression fitting is used to determine the data quantification relationship, and then the increased transmission and distribution volume model is obtained.

4. The power grid investment decision-making method regarding transmission and distribution prices and price sequence according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The incremental investment benefits of S4 include: The first type of incremental benefits: ； In the formula, It is the first type of incremental output income generated after the new investment project is put into production. The base amount of power transmitted and distributed; The second type of incremental benefits: ； In the formula, It is the second type of incremental output income generated after the new investment project is put into production. is the base transmission and distribution price, The incremental transmission and distribution capacity brought by the project; The third type of incremental benefits: ； In the formula, It is the third type of incremental output income generated after the new investment project is put into production. The incremental power transmission and distribution brought by this project is The incremental transmission and distribution price brought by the project.

5. The power grid investment decision-making method regarding transmission and distribution prices and price sequence according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The S5 includes: S51, analyzing the historical investment data to determine the cash flow diagram; S52, based on the cash flow diagram and the incremental investment income, obtain the time nodes of key indicators after combined analysis; S53. Construct the input-output model according to the time nodes of the key indicators, wherein the input-output model is: ； In the formula, is the total incremental benefit of the new investment project in the power grid, is the total investment cost of the power grid project, is the project operation and maintenance cost at time point t, , , are the first, second, and third types of incremental benefits at time point t, and are the project commissioning time and project capital transfer time respectively, T is the project shutdown time, and r is the benchmark discount rate in the industry.

6. The power grid investment decision-making method regarding transmission and distribution prices and price sequence according to claim 2 is characterized in that: In S6, The objective function is, ； In the formula, R is the total revenue, is the decision variable, is the total incremental benefit of the new investment project in the power grid; The constraints include: The load ratio constraint is: ； In the formula, is the power grid investment decision variable, The additional capacity brought by the investment project, is the original capacity, L is the average load of the main line of the entire power grid device, and are the minimum and maximum values ​​of the capacity ratio respectively; The investment capacity constraint is: ； In the formula, is the power grid investment decision variable, is the investment amount of the project, V is the maximum investment capacity of the power grid enterprise within the planning time; The expected return constraint is, ； In the formula, The expected output benefits of the project, The lower limit of investment returns planned for power grid enterprises; The mutual exclusion constraint for items is, ； In the formula, is the decision variable for power grid investment.

7. A power grid investment decision-making device for transmission and distribution prices and price sequence, characterized in that: include: Data acquisition module, used to obtain historical investment data of power grid projects and determine influencing parameters; An impact data calculation module, used to determine and calculate the impact data based on the impact parameters to obtain an incremental transmission and distribution price model; A fitting module, used to perform power fitting based on the historical investment data to obtain a model for increasing transmission and distribution power; A revenue determination module, used to determine the incremental revenue of investment based on the incremental transmission and distribution quantity model and the incremental transmission and distribution price model; A production model determination module, used to determine the input-output model based on the incremental investment income and in combination with a cash flow diagram; The decision model determination module is used to construct an investment objective function and constraint conditions according to the input-output model, and then obtain a power grid investment decision model.

8. The power grid investment decision-making device for transmission and distribution price and price sequence according to claim 7, characterized in that: The impact data calculation module includes: An impact data determination module, used to determine the impact data including depreciation expenses, operation and maintenance expenses and permitted income based on the impact parameters; The income calculation module is used to calculate the depreciation cost, operation and maintenance cost and permitted income respectively to obtain three cost calculation formulas; The power distribution price model determination module is used to determine the incremental power transmission and distribution price model according to the three cost calculation formulas: ； In the formula, is the incremental transmission and distribution price; is the depreciation amount of the asset, Incremental operation and maintenance costs. For incremental permitted earnings, It refers to the transmission and distribution volume of power grid companies during the new round of transmission and distribution price supervision cycle.

9. The power grid investment decision-making device for transmission and distribution price and price sequence according to claim 7, characterized in that: The fitting module comprises: A normalization module, used to perform data normalization based on the historical investment data using a Z-Score normalization method to obtain normalized data; A hysteresis parameter determination module is used to introduce hysteresis parameters based on the normalized data, and to determine the optimal hysteresis parameter value by performing comparison and screening through parameter fitting simulation; The linear fitting module is used to determine the data quantification relationship based on the optimal lag parameter value and to obtain the increased transmission and distribution quantity model by using multiple linear regression fitting.

10. The power grid investment decision-making device regarding transmission and distribution price and price sequence according to claim 7, characterized in that: The production model determination module includes: A cash flow analysis module, used to analyze the historical investment data and determine the cash flow diagram; A node determination module, used to obtain the time nodes of key indicators after combined analysis based on the cash flow diagram and the incremental investment income; A model building module is used to build the input-output model according to the time nodes of the key indicators, wherein the input-output model is: ； In the formula, is the total incremental benefit of the new investment project in the power grid, is the total investment cost of the power grid project, is the project operation and maintenance cost at time point t, , , are the first, second, and third types of incremental benefits at time point t, and are the project commissioning time and project capital transfer time respectively, T is the project shutdown time, and r is the benchmark discount rate in the industry.

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