Method and system for predicting the transport and diffusion path of radionuclides in the ocean

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method and system for predicting the transport and diffusion path of radionuclides in the ocean. The prediction method and system update the nuclear pollution area in combination with the diffusion of marine radionuclides, and determine the atmospheric environmental information of the nuclear pollution sea area from the atmospheric environmental information prediction system; and select hydrodynamic element information from multiple marine environmental information prediction systems in combination with the spatial resolution and regional scope of each marine environmental information prediction system, so as to establish the optimal marine hydrodynamic driving information and sea surface driving information for predicting the diffusion path. At the same time, based on the type of radionuclide, the method selects the corresponding model to predict the transport and diffusion path of radionuclides in the ocean. For radionuclides that are easily adsorbed on suspended solids, the adsorption and sedimentation driving information of the radionuclides by the suspended solids is combined while analyzing the diffusion path, which is beneficial to improving the prediction accuracy of the transport and diffusion path of radionuclides in the ocean.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of nuclear pollutant treatment, and particularly to a method and system for predicting the transport and diffusion path of radionuclides in the ocean. Background Art

[0002] After radionuclides enter the ocean, affected by various factors such as the ocean, tides, and wind, they diffuse, migrate, and transport along with the ocean circulation system, and can have a certain potential impact on the marine ecosystem or human health through ways such as marine organisms or the public ingesting seafood.

[0003] Therefore, the prediction of the transport and diffusion path of radionuclides in the ocean plays an irreplaceable role in strengthening the nuclear accident emergency response ability and pollution-assisted decision-making. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and system for predicting the transport and diffusion path of radionuclides in the ocean to predict the transport and diffusion path of radionuclides in the ocean.

[0005] To achieve the above purpose, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:

[0006] A method for predicting the transport and diffusion path of radionuclides in the ocean, comprising:

[0007] Determine at least one marine environmental information prediction system corresponding to the pollution range of the nuclear polluted sea area, where the spatial resolutions of each of the marine environmental information prediction systems are different, and the prediction range of the marine environmental information prediction system includes at least the pollution range;

[0008] According to the spatial resolution and regional range of each of the marine environmental information prediction systems, determine the hydrodynamic element information and suspended matter information corresponding to the prediction time period from each of the marine environmental information prediction systems, and determine the atmospheric environmental information of the nuclear polluted sea area during the prediction time period from the atmospheric environmental information prediction system;

[0009] Based on the hydrodynamic element information and atmospheric environmental information, construct the marine hydrodynamic driving information and sea surface driving information for the diffusion of radionuclides in the nuclear polluted sea area;

[0010] In the case where the nuclide category in the nuclear contaminated sea area is a nuclide that is easily adsorbed by suspended matter, configure the parameters of the radioactive nuclide transport and diffusion prediction model according to the radioactive nuclide information of the nuclear contaminated sea area; based on the suspended matter state variables in the suspended matter information, establish a calculation scheme for the spatio-temporal variation of the suspended matter concentration in the nuclear contaminated sea area, and obtain the adsorption and sedimentation driving information of the suspended matter on the nuclide; through the radioactive nuclide transport and diffusion prediction model, combine the marine hydrodynamic driving information, sea surface driving information, the adsorption and sedimentation driving information, and the nuclear contamination initial information and nuclear pollution source term information of the nuclear contaminated sea area to determine the marine transport and diffusion path of the radioactive nuclide within the prediction time period;

[0011] In the case where the nuclide category in the nuclear contaminated sea area is a nuclide that is not easily adsorbed by suspended matter, configure the parameters of the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model according to the radioactive nuclide information of the nuclear contaminated sea area; through the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model, combine the marine hydrodynamic driving information, sea surface driving information, and the nuclear contamination initial information and nuclear pollution source term information of the nuclear contaminated sea area to determine the marine transport and diffusion path of the nuclear particle within the prediction time period;

[0012] Update the pollution range according to the marine transport and diffusion path of the radioactive nuclide and / or nuclear particle, and return to execute the step of determining at least one marine environmental information prediction system corresponding to the pollution range of the nuclear contaminated sea area.

[0013] In an alternative embodiment of the present application, the determining the hydrodynamic element information and suspended matter information corresponding to the prediction time period from each of the marine environmental information prediction systems according to the spatial resolution and regional range of each of the marine environmental information prediction systems includes: determining the marine environmental information prediction system with the highest resolution as the target prediction system from each of the marine environmental information prediction systems; determining the hydrodynamic element information and suspended matter information corresponding to the pollution range in the target prediction system.

[0014] In an alternative embodiment of the present application, the constructing the marine hydrodynamic driving information and sea surface driving information for the nuclide diffusion in the nuclear contaminated sea area based on the hydrodynamic element information and atmospheric environment information includes: obtaining the marine nuclide diffusion calculation grid corresponding to the nuclear contaminated sea area; interpolating the atmospheric environment information to the marine nuclide diffusion calculation grid by the bilinear interpolation method to obtain the sea surface driving information; interpolating the hydrodynamic element information to the marine nuclide diffusion calculation grid by the multi-variable and multi-degree surface interpolation method to obtain the marine hydrodynamic driving information.

[0015] In an alternative embodiment of the present application, the radionuclide information at least includes: the pollution range of the nuclear polluted sea area and the emission information of the nuclear pollution source; configuring the parameters of the radionuclide transport and diffusion prediction model according to the radionuclide information of the nuclear polluted sea area, and configuring the parameters of the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model according to the radionuclide information of the nuclear polluted sea area, including: configuring the parameters of the radionuclide transport and diffusion prediction model and the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model according to the pollution range of the nuclear polluted sea area, the emission information of the nuclear pollution source, and the prediction time period.

[0016] In an alternative embodiment of the present application, the suspended matter information at least includes the state variable information of phytoplankton, zooplankton, large debris, and small debris; analyzing the temporal and spatial variations of the suspended matter in the nuclear polluted sea area based on the suspended matter state variables in the suspended matter information to obtain the adsorption and sedimentation driving information of the suspended matter on the nuclide, including: performing state variable analysis on the suspended matter in the nuclear polluted sea area according to the suspended matter information to obtain the type of suspended matter, the quantity of suspended matter, and the generation parameters of the suspended matter in the nuclear polluted sea area; establishing a calculation scheme for the temporal and spatial variations of the suspended matter concentration in the nuclear polluted sea area based on the quantity of suspended matter, the generation parameters, and the type of suspended matter to obtain the adsorption and sedimentation driving information of the suspended matter on the nuclide.

[0017] In an alternative embodiment of the present application, it further includes: obtaining the radionuclide data of the pollution range of the nuclear polluted sea area; using a data fusion method to fuse the radionuclide data into the nuclear pollution background field corresponding to the pollution range to obtain the initial nuclear pollution information of the nuclear polluted sea area.

[0018] In an alternative embodiment of the present application, determining the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides during the prediction time period through the radionuclide transport and diffusion prediction model, in combination with the marine hydrodynamic driving information, sea surface driving information, the adsorption and sedimentation driving information, and the initial nuclear pollution information and nuclear pollution source term information of the nuclear polluted sea area, includes: through the radionuclide transport and diffusion prediction model, using a three-dimensional Euler algorithm, based on the initial nuclear pollution information and nuclear pollution source term information, in combination with the marine hydrodynamic driving information, sea surface driving information, and adsorption and sedimentation driving information, determining the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides during the prediction time period;

[0019] Using the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model, combining the ocean hydrodynamic driving information, sea surface driving information, and the initial nuclear pollution information and nuclear pollution source term information of the nuclear pollution area, to determine the ocean transport and diffusion path of nuclear particles within the prediction time period, including: using the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model, adopting the random walk particle method, combining the ocean hydrodynamic driving information, the sea surface driving information, and the initial nuclear pollution information and nuclear pollution source term information to simulate the spatio-temporal behavior of radionuclides in the ocean environment, and determining the ocean transport and diffusion path of radionuclides within the prediction time period.

[0020] Compared with the prior art, the prediction method for the ocean transport and diffusion path of radionuclides provided by the present invention updates the nuclear pollution area by combining the update of the diffusion path of ocean radionuclides, and determines the atmospheric environment information of the nuclear pollution area within the prediction time period from the atmospheric environment information prediction system according to the pollution range of the nuclear pollution area, and selects the corresponding hydrodynamic element information and suspended matter information from multiple ocean environment information prediction systems corresponding to the pollution range, combining the spatial resolution and regional range of each ocean environment information prediction system, so as to establish the optimal ocean hydrodynamic driving information and sea surface driving information; at the same time, the prediction method for the ocean transport and diffusion path of radionuclides selects the corresponding model to analyze the ocean transport and diffusion path of radionuclides based on the type of radionuclides, which is beneficial to improving the diversity and flexibility of the analysis of the ocean transport and diffusion path of radionuclides. For radionuclides that are easily adsorbed on suspended matter, while analyzing the diffusion path according to the ocean hydrodynamic driving information and the sea surface driving information, combining the adsorption and sedimentation driving information of suspended matter on radionuclides is beneficial to improving the accuracy of the analysis of the ocean transport and diffusion path of radionuclides.

[0021] The present invention also provides a prediction system for the ocean transport and diffusion path of radionuclides, including:

[0022] A radionuclide information collection and processing module, which is used to collect the radionuclide information of the nuclear pollution area and determine at least one ocean environment prediction system corresponding to the pollution range of the nuclear pollution area; the spatial resolutions of each of the ocean environment information prediction systems are different, and the prediction range of the ocean environment information prediction system at least includes the pollution range;

[0023] The marine environment information processing module is used to determine the hydrodynamic element information and suspended matter information corresponding to the forecast time period from each of the marine environment information forecasting systems according to the spatial resolution and regional scope of each of the marine environment information forecasting systems, and to determine the atmospheric environment information of the nuclear pollution sea area within the forecast time period from the atmospheric environment information forecasting system; and, based on the hydrodynamic element information and the atmospheric environment information, construct the marine hydrodynamic driving information and sea surface driving information for the nuclide diffusion in the nuclear pollution sea area.

[0024] The radionuclide source term processing module is used to perform radionuclide category analysis on the radioactive nuclide information of the nuclear pollution sea area to determine the category of the radionuclide; and configure the parameters of the radioactive nuclide transport and diffusion prediction model and the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model according to the radioactive nuclide information of the nuclear pollution sea area.

[0025] The radioactive nuclide transport and diffusion prediction module is used, when the nuclide category in the nuclear pollution sea area is a nuclide that is easily adsorbed on suspended matter, to establish a calculation scheme for the temporal and spatial variation of the suspended matter concentration in the nuclear pollution sea area based on the quantity of the suspended matter, the generation parameters, and the suspended matter type, and obtain the adsorption and sedimentation driving information of the nuclide by the suspended matter; through the radioactive nuclide transport and diffusion prediction model, combine the marine hydrodynamic driving information, the sea surface driving information, the adsorption and sedimentation driving information, and the nuclear pollution initial information and nuclear pollution source term information of the nuclear pollution sea area to determine the marine transport and diffusion path of the radioactive nuclide within the forecast time period.

[0026] The nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction module is used, when the nuclide category in the nuclear pollution sea area is a nuclide that is not easily adsorbed on suspended matter, to determine the marine transport and diffusion path of the nuclear particle within the forecast time period through the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model, combining the marine hydrodynamic driving information, the sea surface driving information, and the nuclear pollution initial information and nuclear pollution source term information of the nuclear pollution sea area.

[0027] The pollution range update module is used to update the pollution range according to the marine transport and diffusion path of the radioactive nuclide and / or nuclear particle.

[0028] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the radioactive nuclide marine transport and diffusion path prediction device provided by the present invention are the same as those of the radioactive nuclide marine transport and diffusion path prediction method described in the above technical solution, and will not be elaborated here.

[0029] The present invention also provides an electronic device, including:

[0030] A processor;

[0031] A memory for storing executable instructions of the processor;

[0032] The processor is configured to execute the above-mentioned prediction method for the radioactive nuclide ocean transport and diffusion path by running the instructions in the memory.

[0033] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the electronic device provided by the present invention are the same as those of the radioactive nuclide ocean transport and diffusion path prediction method described in the above technical solution, and will not be elaborated here.

[0034] The present invention also provides a computer storage medium, in which instructions are stored, and when the instructions are run, the above-mentioned prediction method for the radioactive nuclide ocean transport and diffusion path is implemented.

[0035] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the computer storage medium provided by the present invention are the same as those of the radioactive nuclide ocean transport and diffusion path prediction method described in the above technical solution, and will not be elaborated here. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0036] The drawings described herein are used to provide a further understanding of the present invention and form a part of the present invention. The schematic embodiments of the present invention and their descriptions are used to explain the present invention and do not constitute an improper limitation to the present invention. In the drawings:

[0037] Figure 1 It is a structural diagram of a prediction system for the radioactive nuclide ocean transport path provided by an embodiment of the present application;

[0038] Figure 2 It is a flowchart of a prediction method for the radioactive nuclide ocean transport and diffusion path provided by an embodiment of the present application;

[0039] Figure 3 It is a structural diagram of a prediction device for the radioactive nuclide ocean transport and diffusion path provided by an embodiment of the present application;

[0040] Figure 4 It is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device provided by an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0041] In order to clearly describe the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, in the embodiments of the present invention, terms such as "first" and "second" are used to distinguish the same items or similar items with basically the same functions and effects. For example, the first threshold and the second threshold are only used to distinguish different thresholds and do not limit their order. Those skilled in the art can understand that the terms "first" and "second" do not limit the quantity and execution order, and the terms "first" and "second" do not necessarily mean different.

[0042] It should be noted that in the present invention, words such as "exemplary" or "for example" are used to represent examples, illustrations or explanations. Any embodiment or design described as "exemplary" or "for example" in the present invention should not be construed as being more preferred or having more advantages than other embodiments or designs. Rather, the use of words such as "exemplary" or "for example" is intended to present relevant concepts in a specific manner.

[0043] In the present invention, "at least one" means one or more, and "a plurality" means two or more. "And / or" describes the association relationship of associated objects and indicates that three relationships can exist. For example, A and / or B can represent: A exists alone, A and B exist simultaneously, and B exists alone, where A and B can be singular or plural. The character " / " generally represents an "or" relationship between the associated objects before and after. "At least one (item)" or its similar expression refers to any combination of these items, including any combination of single item (item) or plural items (items). For example, at least one (item) of a, b or c can represent: a, b, c, the combination of a and b, the combination of a and c, the combination of b and c, or the combination of a, b and c, where a, b and c can be single or multiple.

[0044] After radionuclides enter the ocean, affected by various factors such as the ocean, tides, and winds, they diffuse, migrate, and transport along with the ocean circulation system, and can have a certain potential impact on the marine ecosystem or human health through ways such as marine organisms or the public ingesting seafood.

[0045] Therefore, the prediction of the transport and diffusion path of radionuclides in the ocean plays an irreplaceable role in strengthening the nuclear accident emergency response ability and pollution-assisted decision-making, etc.

[0046] However, it is found in practice that in the current prediction system, the resolution of the prediction system for the transport and diffusion path of marine radionuclides is relatively low, and the calculation models used for different radionuclides are relatively single, unable to take into account the requirements of high resolution and calculation efficiency. At the same time, the existing calculation models ignore the changes in the suspended solid concentration in the marine ecosystem and cannot effectively reflect the vertical transport process of radionuclides.

[0047] In view of the above technical status, the embodiments of the present application provide a prediction method and device for the transport and diffusion path of radionuclides in the ocean, which will be described in detail one by one in the following embodiments.

[0048] The prediction method and device for the transport path of marine radionuclides are applied to the prediction system for the transport path of marine radionuclides. To facilitate the understanding of the prediction method and device for the transport path of marine radionuclides, the prediction system for the transport path of marine radionuclides will be introduced first below.

[0049] Please refer to Figure 1 , Figure 1 which is the structural diagram of the prediction system for the marine transport path of radionuclides provided by the embodiments of this application.

[0050] As Figure 1 shown, the prediction system for the marine transport path of radionuclides includes: a radionuclide information collection and processing module 101, a nuclide source term processing module 102, a marine environmental information processing module 103, a radionuclide transport and diffusion prediction module 104, and a nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction module 105.

[0051] Among them, the radionuclide information collection and processing module 101 is used to obtain the radionuclide information in the ocean collected by station monitoring, analyze and process the obtained radionuclide information, determine the nuclear pollution sea area and the pollution range of the nuclear pollution sea area; and determine at least one marine environmental prediction system corresponding to the pollution range of the nuclear pollution sea area.

[0052] Among them, the radionuclide information can be understood as information such as the types, concentrations, distribution characteristics, positions in the ocean, depths, half-lives, decay modes, etc. of radionuclides in the nuclear pollution sea area obtained by sampling.

[0053] In an alternative embodiment of this application, the radionuclide information collection and processing module 101 is further used to fuse the radionuclide information obtained by station monitoring into the marine nuclear pollution background field to obtain the initial marine nuclear pollution field of the polluted sea area, and to update the radionuclide information within the pollution range in real time.

[0054] The marine nuclear pollution background field can be understood as the relevant information of radionuclides in the sea area affected by nuclear pollution; the initial marine nuclear pollution field can be understood as the initial nuclear pollution information of the nuclear pollution sea area obtained by fusing the marine radionuclide information obtained by station monitoring on the basis of the marine nuclear pollution background field.

[0055] In the embodiments of this application, the prediction system for the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides is connected to multiple marine environmental information prediction systems 106, and the prediction ranges corresponding to different marine environmental information prediction systems are different. The marine environmental information prediction system 106 is a system that uses mathematical models, observational data, and modern information technology to predict the marine environmental conditions. Such systems can provide predictions of various physical, chemical, and biological parameters of the marine environment, including but not limited to sea surface temperature, sea current, sea wave, tide, salinity, dissolved oxygen, nutrient salts, etc., as well as marine ecological information related to these parameters.

[0056] In the actual application process, in the radioactive nuclide information collection and processing module 101, after determining the nuclear pollution sea area with nuclear pollution and the corresponding pollution range, the pollution range and the regional range of the marine environmental information forecasting system are combined to match at least one marine environmental information forecasting system corresponding to the pollution range, and the one with the highest resolution is selected from these marine environmental information forecasting systems as the target forecasting system, and then the marine environmental information collected by the target forecasting system is extracted.

[0057] The marine environmental information processing module 103 is used to determine the hydrodynamic element information and suspended matter information corresponding to the forecast time period from each of the marine environmental information forecasting systems according to the spatial resolution and regional range of each of the marine environmental information forecasting systems, and to determine the atmospheric environmental information of the nuclear pollution sea area during the forecast time period from the atmospheric environmental information forecasting system 108.

[0058] After obtaining the above-mentioned hydrodynamic element information, suspended matter information, and atmospheric environmental information, the marine environmental information processing module 103 is also used to construct the marine hydrodynamic driving information and sea surface driving information for the nuclide diffusion in the nuclear pollution sea area based on the hydrodynamic element information and atmospheric environmental information.

[0059] Furthermore, the nuclide source term processing module 102 is used to perform nuclide category analysis on the radioactive nuclide information within the pollution range collected and processed by the radioactive nuclide information collection and processing module 101 to determine the category of the nuclide; and to configure parameters for the radioactive nuclide transport and diffusion forecasting module 104 and the nuclear particle transport and diffusion forecasting module 105 according to the radioactive nuclide information of the nuclear pollution sea area, so as to provide initial parameters for the calculation of the radioactive nuclide marine transport and diffusion path.

[0060] In an alternative embodiment of the present application, the nuclide source term processing module 102 is also used to analyze and process the sea area environment of the nuclear pollution discharge, including analyzing the hydrological element information, ecological element information, human activity impact element information, etc., so as to obtain the nuclear pollution source item information such as the location of the marine nuclear pollution sea area, the geographical coordinates of the nuclear pollution source, and the discharge method.

[0061] In the actual application process, the radioactive nuclide transport and diffusion forecasting module 104 and the nuclear particle transport and diffusion forecasting module 105 are used to calculate the marine transport and diffusion paths of two different categories of nuclides.

[0062] Specifically, when the radionuclide category in the nuclear pollution sea area is a radionuclide that is easily adsorbed by suspended matter, after the radioactive nuclide transport and diffusion prediction module 104 completes the parameter configuration performed by the nuclide source term processing module 102, it first establishes a calculation scheme for the temporal and spatial variation of the suspended matter concentration in the nuclear pollution sea area based on the suspended matter state variables in the suspended matter information obtained by the marine environment information processing module 103, and obtains the adsorption and sedimentation driving information of the suspended matter on the radionuclide; then, it combines the initial nuclear pollution information output by the radioactive nuclide information collection and processing module 101, the nuclear pollution source term information output by the nuclide source term processing module 102, and the marine hydrodynamic driving information and sea surface driving information output by the marine environment information processing module 103 to calculate the marine transport and diffusion path of the radioactive nuclide within the pollution range.

[0063] When the radionuclide category in the nuclear pollution sea area is a nuclear particle that is not easily adsorbed by suspended matter, after the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction module 105 completes the parameter configuration performed by the nuclide source term processing module 102, it combines the initial nuclear pollution information output by the radioactive nuclide information collection and processing module 101, the nuclear pollution source term information output by the nuclide source term processing module 102, and the marine hydrodynamic driving information and sea surface driving information output by the marine environment information processing module 103 to calculate the marine transport and diffusion path of the radioactive nuclide within the pollution range.

[0064] Furthermore, the prediction system for the marine transport path of radioactive nuclides can also be connected to the nuclide transport and diffusion path prediction product production system 107. The nuclide transport and diffusion path prediction product production system 107 is used to comprehensively analyze the marine transport and diffusion path of radioactive nuclides output by the prediction system for the marine transport path of radioactive nuclides, obtain the marine radioactive nuclide transport and diffusion concentration information at key positions, conduct risk analysis of marine nuclide emissions, evaluate the impact on the nuclear pollution sea area environment, and combine relevant nuclear accident emergencies to give reasonable prediction information.

[0065] Furthermore, the embodiments of the present application also provide a method for predicting the marine diffusion path of radioactive nuclides. Please refer to Figure 2 , Figure 2 which is the flowchart of the method for predicting the marine transport and diffusion path of radioactive nuclides provided by the embodiments of the present application.

[0066] As Figure 1 shown, the method for predicting the marine transport path of radioactive nuclides includes the following S101 to S106:

[0067] S101. Determine at least one marine environmental information forecasting system corresponding to the pollution range of the nuclear - contaminated sea area. The spatial resolutions of the respective marine environmental information forecasting systems are different, and the forecasting range of each marine environmental information forecasting system includes at least the pollution range.

[0068] The pollution range of the nuclear - contaminated sea area can be obtained by analyzing and processing the radionuclide information collected by the radionuclide information collection and processing module 101. Specifically, the analysis and processing of the radionuclide information include locating the sea area where nuclear pollution occurs, and then determining the nuclear - contaminated sea area and its pollution range.

[0069] Specifically, the radionuclide information includes atmospheric radionuclide diffusion forecast data, radionuclide detection data, and historical nuclear pollution information, etc.

[0070] Before determining the pollution range of the nuclear - contaminated sea area, it is first necessary to analyze and process global or regional atmospheric radionuclide diffusion forecast data, radionuclide detection data, and historical nuclear pollution information, etc. Through methods such as radionuclide data analysis, coordinate format conversion, and pollution range matching, obtain the nuclear pollution radiation intensity, radionuclide transport and diffusion range, pollution area, etc., and then complete the analysis and processing of the radionuclide information to realize the dynamic information judgment and classification of the nuclear - contaminated sea area.

[0071] In addition to determining the pollution range of the nuclear - contaminated sea area, the collection of the radionuclide information is also used to construct the initial nuclear pollution information within the pollution range, so as to provide basic conditions for the radionuclide diffusion in the nuclear - contaminated sea area.

[0072] Specifically, the construction of the initial nuclear pollution information includes: obtaining the radionuclide data of the pollution range of the nuclear - contaminated sea area; using the data fusion method to fuse the radionuclide data into the nuclear pollution background field corresponding to the pollution range to obtain the initial nuclear pollution information of the nuclear - contaminated sea area. Among them, the nuclear pollution background field can be understood as the normal concentration level and distribution of radionuclides in this sea area when the nuclear - contaminated sea area has not been nuclear - contaminated.

[0073] S102. According to the spatial resolution and regional range of each marine environmental information forecasting system, determine the hydrodynamic element information and suspended matter information corresponding to the forecasting time period from each marine environmental information forecasting system, and determine the atmospheric environmental information of the nuclear - contaminated sea area during the forecasting time period from the atmospheric environmental information forecasting system.

[0074] After determining the pollution range of the nuclear - contaminated sea area, determine the regional range of the marine environmental information forecasting system associated with the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides. Further, match multiple marine environmental information forecasting systems whose regional ranges include the pollution range, and select one with the highest spatial resolution from these marine environmental information forecasting systems as the target forecasting system.

[0075] In addition, considering that over time, the pollution range of the nuclear - contaminated sea area will gradually expand, and the selection of the marine environmental information forecasting system will also change accordingly. To improve the forecasting accuracy of the marine transport and diffusion path, the selection of the target forecasting system changes with the change of the pollution range. In the actual application process, considering that with the diffusion of radionuclides, the pollution range may expand to multiple sea areas, and the regional ranges of marine environmental information forecasting systems in different sea areas are limited. Therefore, the target forecasting system may include at least one marine environmental information forecasting system.

[0076] Considering that radionuclides also undergo transport, diffusion, and sedimentation in the atmosphere, and meteorological conditions (such as wind speed, wind direction, turbulence, etc.), atmospheric stability, climate conditions, and atmospheric chemical reactions in the atmospheric environment have important impacts on the diffusion of radionuclides in the ocean. For example, radionuclides in the atmosphere can attach to suspended particulate matter in the atmosphere, and the larger ones among these suspended particulate matter are likely to settle into the ocean. Therefore, in the process of analyzing the marine transport and diffusion of radionuclides, the analysis of atmospheric environmental information is also essential.

[0077] Furthermore, the hydrodynamic element information and suspended matter information can be understood as the influencing factors of the atmosphere and marine environment on the radionuclide diffusion within the pollution range, while the atmospheric environmental information is used to analyze the influence of the atmospheric environment on radionuclide diffusion.

[0078] In the actual application process, the hydrodynamic element information corresponds to the sea - surface drive of the nuclear - contaminated sea area, that is, the hydrodynamic drive field; the suspended matter information corresponds to the adsorption and sedimentation drive of suspended matter in the ocean on radionuclides, that is, the diffusion brought by plankton and other organisms in the ocean; the atmospheric environmental information corresponds to the atmospheric nuclear diffusion and sedimentation field.

[0079] S103, based on the hydrodynamic element information and atmospheric environmental information, construct the marine hydrodynamic drive information and sea - surface drive information for the radionuclide diffusion in the nuclear - contaminated sea area.

[0080] Specifically, based on the hydrodynamic element information and atmospheric environmental information, constructing the marine hydrodynamic drive information and sea - surface drive information for the radionuclide diffusion in the nuclear - contaminated sea area includes:

[0081] Obtain the marine radionuclide diffusion calculation grid corresponding to the nuclear polluted sea area; interpolate the atmospheric environment information to the marine radionuclide diffusion calculation grid by the bilinear interpolation method to obtain the sea surface driving information; interpolate the hydrodynamic element information to the marine radionuclide diffusion calculation grid by the multi-variable and multi-degree surface interpolation method to obtain the marine hydrodynamic driving information.

[0082] In an alternative embodiment of the present application, in order to predict the transport and diffusion path of radionuclides, after obtaining the marine hydrodynamic driving information, it is necessary to combine the relevant information of the marine radionuclide diffusion calculation grid (including grid longitude and latitude, grid connection rules, grid requirements, number of grid cells, land-sea identification, etc.), load bathymetry data, shoreline, and land-sea identification data on the basis of the marine radionuclide diffusion calculation grid, and correct the grid cells that do not meet the calculation conditions and the grid cells that do not match the land-sea identification, actual bathymetry, and shoreline through orthogonality correction.

[0083] When constructing the marine hydrodynamic driving information and sea surface driving information in the marine radionuclide diffusion calculation grid, in order to ensure the prediction accuracy of the subsequent marine transport and diffusion path, it is also necessary to add the initial nuclear pollution information in S101 to the marine radionuclide diffusion calculation grid.

[0084] Specifically, for the initial nuclear pollution information, the position tracking method can be used to find the grid number of the pollution emission source in the initial nuclear pollution information in the marine radionuclide diffusion calculation grid, and add the information such as the type of radioactive substance, emission amount, emission start time, and grid number of the pollution emission source in the initial nuclear pollution information to the marine radionuclide diffusion calculation grid together with the sea surface driving information and sedimentation driving information.

[0085] S104, in the case where the radionuclide category in the nuclear polluted sea area is a radionuclide that is easily adsorbed on suspended matter, configure the parameters of the radionuclide transport and diffusion prediction model according to the radioactive nuclide information of the nuclear polluted sea area; establish a calculation scheme for the temporal and spatial variation of the suspended matter concentration in the nuclear polluted sea area based on the suspended matter state variables in the suspended matter information to obtain the adsorption and sedimentation driving information of the suspended matter on the nuclide; through the radionuclide transport and diffusion prediction model, combine the marine hydrodynamic driving information, sea surface driving information, the adsorption and sedimentation driving information, and the initial nuclear pollution information and nuclear pollution source term information of the nuclear polluted sea area to determine the marine transport and diffusion path of the radionuclide during the prediction time period.

[0086] The radionuclides that are easily adsorbed on suspended matter include 137 Cs, 90Sr, etc. The ecological variables included in the suspended matter information are phytoplankton, Chlorophyll (Chl-a), zooplankton, nitrate (NO 3 ), ammonium salt (NH 4 ), large and small DetritusN containing nitrogen, large and small DetritusC containing carbon, Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Total Alkalinity (TA), Total Inorganic Carbon (TIC), etc. In the actual application process, the suspended matter information can be obtained through the marine plankton ecological dynamics model in the marine environmental information forecasting system.

[0087] The circulation and sedimentation of the marine ecological environment have a crucial impact on the accuracy of the diffusion of radionuclides. Among them, the impact of phytoplankton on radionuclide diffusion comes from the absorption of radionuclides during its growth process and its own sedimentation in the ocean. The growth of phytoplankton is affected by the intensity of short-wave radiation, NO 3 , NH 4 concentrations, and seawater temperature. Among them, NO 3 comes from the nitrification of NH4 and the replenishment of coastal rivers, and NH4 comes from the metabolism of zooplankton and the remineralization process of large and small detritus (i.e., the nitrogen regenerated by dead algae at a certain rate); the radionuclide diffusion of zooplankton comes from the ingestion of phytoplankton.

[0088] For radionuclides that are easily adsorbed on suspended matter, mainly analyze the temporal and spatial changes of the radionuclides along with the suspended matter in the polluted sea area and the diffusion brought by state variables. In this process, mainly analyze the concentration of suspended matter within the polluted range, so as to analyze the diffusion of radionuclides under the absorption and sedimentation effects of suspended matter in combination with the concentration.

[0089] Specifically, the sedimentation process of the suspended matter is related to the concentration of the suspended matter. The calculation scheme for the temporal and spatial changes of the suspended matter concentration in the nuclear polluted sea area can be calculated by the following formulas (1) to (5):

[0090]

[0091]

[0092] Among them, SDetC represents the concentration of small carbon-containing detritus; LDetC represents the concentration of large carbon-containing detritus; r P represents the ratio of carbon to nitrogen in phytoplankton; r zrepresents the carbon-nitrogen ratio in zooplankton; Zoo represents the amount of zooplankton in seawater; Phy represents the amount of phytoplankton in seawater; β is the predation assimilation coefficient of zooplankton on phytoplankton; m z represents the mortality rate of zooplankton; m P represents the mortality rate of phytoplankton; τ represents the aggregation rate of phytoplankton; g max represents the maximum predation rate of zooplankton, k p represents the half-saturation constant for zooplankton predation; r SDC represents the mineralization rate of small detrital carbon; r LDC represents the mineralization rate of large detrital carbon; SDetN represents the concentration of nitrogen-containing small detritus; LDetN represents the concentration of nitrogen-containing large detritus; r SD represents the remineralization rate of small detritus; r LD represents the remineralization rate of large detritus; ω s represents the settling rate of small detritus; ω L is the settling rate of large detritus.

[0093] After obtaining the concentrations of the two sizes of detritus corresponding to each time step through the above formulas (1) to (4), the total concentration of suspended matter in the ocean at each time step can be determined, that is:

[0094] ρ s = SDetC + LDetC + SDetN + LDetN (5);

[0095] where ρ s represents the total concentration of the suspended matter.

[0096] The nuclear pollution source information refers to the information related to the source of marine nuclear pollution. In the actual application process, by analyzing and processing the marine environment of the nuclear pollution discharge area, including analyzing hydrological element information, ecological element information, human activity impact element information, etc., the nuclear pollution source item information such as the location of the marine nuclear pollution area, the geographical coordinates of the nuclear pollution source, and the discharge method can be obtained, so as to provide parameter configuration for the radioactive nuclide transport and diffusion prediction model and the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model in S105 below.

[0097] After obtaining the marine radionuclide diffusion calculation grid containing marine hydrodynamic driving information, sea surface driving information, nuclear pollution initial information, and nuclear pollution source item information respectively, and the adsorption and settling driving information, the position of the radionuclide at different time points within the determined prediction time period is obtained through the radioactive nuclide transport and diffusion prediction model, and then the marine transport and diffusion path of the radionuclide is obtained.

[0098] Specifically, in the above S104, the radioactive nuclide transport and diffusion prediction model is specifically an Eulerian transport and diffusion model.

[0099] In the actual application process, this model calculates the ocean transport and diffusion path of the radioactive nuclide through the following formula (6).

[0100]

[0101] Among them, x, y, and z represent the traditional Cartesian coordinates; u, v, and w represent the zonal velocity, meridional velocity, and vertical velocity respectively; C represents the concentration of the radioactive nuclide; t represents time; K h and K M represent the horizontal diffusion coefficient and the vertical diffusion coefficient respectively; λ represents the radioactive decay constant; source represents the amount of source discharged into the seawater per unit volume per unit time; sinking represents the adsorption and sedimentation of the radioactive nuclide with the suspended matter concentration; K d represents the distribution coefficient of the nuclide in water to the suspended matter, K d represents the scavenging ability of the particulate matter to the radioactive nuclide. The lower the value of K d , the less likely the radioactive nuclide is adsorbed on the particulate matter, and it has a stronger migration and diffusion ability; w s represents the sedimentation velocity of the suspended matter; ρ s represents the total concentration of the suspended matter.

[0102] Furthermore, after obtaining the calculation results at each time step through the above formula (6), setting parameters such as the average field, instantaneous field, and single-point time series concentration to be output, the prediction result of the ocean transport and diffusion path of the radioactive nuclide can be obtained. According to the longitude and latitude of the given section, based on the interpolation function, the spatio-temporal variation data of the radioactive nuclide on the section with respect to longitude, latitude, and water depth are calculated, which are used to analyze and visually display the spatial distribution of the radioactive nuclide concentration in the vertical profile layer.

[0103] S105. When the nuclide type in the nuclear pollution sea area is a nuclide that is not easily adsorbed on the suspended matter, according to the radioactive nuclide information of the nuclear pollution sea area, configure the parameters of the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model; through the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model, combined with the ocean hydrodynamic driving information, sea surface driving information, and the initial nuclear pollution information and nuclear pollution source term information of the nuclear pollution sea area, determine the ocean transport and diffusion path of the nuclear particles during the prediction time period.

[0104] For nuclides that are not easily adsorbed on the suspended matter (such as tritium), the random walk particle method is selected to simulate the spatio-temporal behavior of the radioactive nuclide in the marine environment, so as to realize the rapid simulation calculation after the release of nuclear particles in seawater.

[0105] Specifically, using the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model, combining the sea surface driving information and the initial nuclear pollution information of the nuclear polluted sea area to determine the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides within the prediction time period, includes:

[0106] Using the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model, adopting the random walk particle method, combining the marine hydrodynamic driving information, sea surface driving information, and the initial nuclear pollution information and nuclear pollution source term information of the nuclear polluted sea area to simulate the spatio-temporal behavior of radionuclides in the marine environment, and determining the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides within the prediction time period.

[0107] Specifically, after generating the corresponding hydrodynamic grid based on the sea surface driving information and the initial nuclear pollution information of the nuclear polluted sea area, determining the positions of each nuclear particle within the pollution range, then interpolating the relevant data in the hydrodynamic grid to the positions where the nuclear particles are located, and further predicting the positions of the nuclear particles at the next time step and updating the current positions of the nuclear particles.

[0108] In this way, by calculating the positions of each nuclear particle at each time step within the prediction time period, the diffusion path of the nuclear particle can be obtained.

[0109] Specifically, in the above step S105, the radionuclide marine diffusion model is specifically a Lagrangian transport and diffusion model, and the position changes of each nuclear particle can be obtained through the following formulas (6) and (7):

[0110]

[0111] Where x, y, z represent the coordinates of the nuclear particle, and u, v, w represent the zonal velocity, meridional velocity, and vertical velocity of the nuclear particle respectively; σ = (z - η) / D, D = H + ζ, H is the bottom topography of the nuclear polluted area, and ζ represents the surface elevation.

[0112] After obtaining the diffusion paths of each nuclear particle, the positions of the nuclear particles at each time step can be obtained. Finding the positions of the boundary nuclear particles and counting the number of nuclear particles, and calculating the sea area corresponding to the boundary nuclear particles at each time step, the change of the pollution range at each time step can be determined.

[0113] Finally, querying the latitudes and longitudes of each nuclear particle at each time step, counting the number of nuclear particles in each grid cell in the grid of the nuclear polluted area, and obtaining the relative concentrations in seawater and on the sea surface at each time step.

[0114] In the embodiments of the present application, the parameter configuration of the radioactive nuclide transport and diffusion prediction model according to the radioactive nuclide information of the nuclear pollution sea area mentioned in S104 and S105 above; and the parameter configuration of the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model according to the radioactive nuclide information of the nuclear pollution sea area refer to analyzing the nuclide source term and the nuclear particle source term of the polluted sea area in combination with the radioactive nuclide information, and then respectively performing initial parameter configuration on the radioactive nuclide transport and diffusion prediction model and the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model according to the nuclide source term and the nuclear particle source term.

[0115] Specifically, the configuration parameters of the radioactive nuclide ocean diffusion model include: the location of the nuclear pollution source, the forecast time period of nuclide diffusion, the amount of pollutants discharged by the nuclear pollution source, and the situation information of the nuclear pollution source at any moment.

[0116] For the radioactive nuclide transport and diffusion prediction model mentioned in S104 above, after obtaining the ocean radioactive nuclide information, extract the decay parameters of the radioactive nuclides, the amount of pollutants discharged by the nuclear pollution source, the location of the nuclear pollution source, the depth of pollutant discharge by the nuclear pollution source, and the discharge time information, and perform processing such as unit conversion and element unified standardization. Then, based on the relevant information obtained after processing, configure the relevant parameters such as the number of nuclear particles, location, and time of the Euler transport model.

[0117] For the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model mentioned in S105 above, after obtaining the ocean radioactive nuclide information, through analyzing and processing the ocean radioactive nuclide information (including hydrological element information analysis, ecological element information analysis, human activity impact analysis, etc.), extract the pollution range of the ocean nuclear pollution sea area, the location of the nuclear pollution source, and the discharge mode of the pollution source, etc., and perform parameter matching on the Lagrangian transport and diffusion model according to the above content extracted.

[0118] S106, update the pollution range according to the radioactive nuclide and / or nuclear particle ocean transport and diffusion path, and return to execute S101.

[0119] Furthermore, after obtaining the radioactive nuclide ocean transport and diffusion path within the forecast time period, it is also possible to generate a forecast product in combination with the radioactive nuclide ocean transport and diffusion path within the forecast time period.

[0120] Specifically, the forecast product includes: key point information diagnosis, nuclear pollution area, nuclear particle diffusion path forecast, and radioactive nuclide impact assessment.

[0121] For the key point diagnosis, it includes: selecting the geographical location of the key point based on the geographic information system; diagnosing the key point information according to the radioactive nuclide ocean transport and diffusion path, setting a fixed time and time interval, extracting the forecast data of the radioactive nuclide concentration at the key point, selecting a suitable output image scheme, comparing whether the nuclide concentration at the key point exceeds the standard concentration of the marine radioactive nuclide type, and outputting the exceeded data information.

[0122] For the nuclear pollution area, it includes: comparing the nuclide concentration in each grid cell obtained during the calculation of the radioactive nuclide ocean transport and diffusion path with the influence threshold according to the influence concentration threshold of the marine radioactive nuclide, judging whether the nuclide concentration in each grid cell is greater than the influence threshold, generating the spatial field data of the logical judgment, counting the area of the grid cells with a nuclide concentration greater than the influence threshold, outputting the counted grid quantity and number, performing a summation calculation, and recording the influence area of the nuclear pollution diffusion at this moment.

[0123] For the forecast of the nuclear particle diffusion path, it includes: calculating the maximum value position of the radioactive nuclide concentration based on the nuclear particle positions at different times during the calculation of the radioactive nuclide ocean transport and diffusion path and the nuclear particle concentration of the nuclear particles in each grid cell, selecting a plotting scheme, plotting and describing the nuclear particle diffusion path, and outputting products such as the nuclear particle diffusion path forecast map data and forecast forms.

[0124] For the impact assessment of radioactive nuclides, it includes: analyzing the transport distance, transport direction, transport path, change trend of the impact area, time of entering different sea areas, etc. of the radioactive nuclides, outputting products in the form of time series change diagrams, tables, data files, forecast forms, etc. of the impact area, and being able to perform visual display, and comprehensively giving the impact assessment results of the marine radioactive nuclides.

[0125] In summary, the prediction method for the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides provided by the embodiments of the present application updates the nuclear pollution area in combination with the update of the diffusion path of marine radionuclides, and determines the atmospheric environmental information of the nuclear pollution sea area during the prediction time period from the atmospheric environmental information prediction system according to the pollution range of the nuclear pollution sea area, and selects the corresponding hydrodynamic element information and suspended matter information from multiple marine environmental information prediction systems corresponding to the pollution range, combining the spatial resolution and regional range of each marine environmental information prediction system, so as to establish the optimal marine hydrodynamic driving information and sea surface driving information; at the same time, the prediction method for the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides selects the corresponding model to analyze the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides based on the type of radionuclides, which is beneficial to improving the diversity and flexibility of the analysis of the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides. For radionuclides that are easily adsorbed on suspended matter, while analyzing the diffusion path according to the marine hydrodynamic driving information and the sea surface driving information, combining the adsorption and sedimentation driving information of suspended matter on radionuclides is beneficial to improving the accuracy of the analysis of the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides.

[0126] Corresponding to the above method embodiment, the embodiments of the present application also provide a prediction device for the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides. Please refer to Figure 3 , Figure 3 which is the structural diagram of the prediction device for the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides provided by the embodiments of the present application.

[0127] As Figure 3 shown, the prediction device for the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides includes:

[0128] A sea area information processing module 301, configured to determine at least one marine environmental information prediction system corresponding to the pollution range of the nuclear pollution sea area, where the spatial resolutions of the marine environmental information prediction systems are different, and the prediction range of the marine environmental information prediction system at least includes the pollution range;

[0129] An environmental information extraction module 302, configured to determine the hydrodynamic element information and suspended matter information corresponding to the prediction time period from each marine environmental information prediction system according to the spatial resolution and regional range of each marine environmental information prediction system, and determine the atmospheric environmental information of the nuclear pollution sea area during the prediction time period from the atmospheric environmental information prediction system;

[0130] A driving field construction module 303, configured to construct the marine hydrodynamic driving information and sea surface driving information for the diffusion of radionuclides in the nuclear pollution sea area based on the hydrodynamic element information and the atmospheric environmental information;

[0131] The first diffusion path determination module 304 is configured to, when the nuclide category in the nuclear pollution sea area is a nuclide that is easily adsorbed by suspended matter, establish a calculation scheme for the spatio-temporal variation of the suspended matter concentration in the nuclear pollution sea area based on the suspended matter state variables in the suspended matter information, and obtain the adsorption and sedimentation driving information of the suspended matter for the nuclide; through the radioactive nuclide transport and diffusion prediction model, combine the ocean hydrodynamic driving information, sea surface driving information, the adsorption and sedimentation driving information, and the nuclear pollution initial information and nuclear pollution source term information of the nuclear pollution sea area to determine the ocean transport and diffusion path of the radioactive nuclide during the prediction time period.

[0132] The second diffusion path determination module 305 is configured to, when the nuclide category in the nuclear pollution sea area is a nuclide that is not easily adsorbed by suspended matter, determine the ocean transport and diffusion path of the nuclear particles during the prediction time period through the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model, combining the ocean hydrodynamic driving information, sea surface driving information, and the nuclear pollution initial information and nuclear pollution source term information of the nuclear pollution sea area.

[0133] The sea area information update module 306 is configured to update the pollution range according to the ocean transport and diffusion path of the radioactive nuclide and / or nuclear particles, and return to execute the step of the at least one marine environmental information prediction system corresponding to determining the pollution range of the nuclear pollution sea area.

[0134] In an optional implementation manner of the present application, the determining the hydrodynamic element information and suspended matter information corresponding to the prediction time period from each of the marine environmental information prediction systems according to the spatial resolution and regional range of each of the marine environmental information prediction systems includes:

[0135] Determine the marine environmental information prediction system with the highest resolution from each of the marine environmental information prediction systems as the target prediction system;

[0136] Determine the hydrodynamic element information and suspended matter information corresponding to the pollution range in the target prediction system.

[0137] In an optional implementation manner of the present application, the constructing the ocean hydrodynamic driving information and sea surface driving information for the nuclide diffusion in the nuclear pollution sea area based on the hydrodynamic element information and atmospheric environment information includes:

[0138] Obtain the ocean nuclide diffusion calculation grid corresponding to the nuclear pollution sea area;

[0139] Interpolate the atmospheric environment information to the ocean nuclide diffusion calculation grid by the bilinear interpolation method to obtain the sea surface driving information;

[0140] Interpolate the hydrodynamic element information to the marine nuclide diffusion calculation grid by means of a multivariate and multi-degree surface interpolation method to obtain the marine hydrodynamic driving information.

[0141] In an alternative embodiment of the present application, the radionuclide information at least includes: the pollution range of the nuclear polluted sea area and the emission information of the nuclear pollution source;

[0142] Configuring the parameters of the radionuclide transport and diffusion prediction model according to the radionuclide information of the nuclear polluted sea area, and configuring the parameters of the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model according to the radionuclide information of the nuclear polluted sea area, including:

[0143] Configuring the parameters of the radionuclide transport and diffusion prediction model and the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model according to the pollution range of the nuclear polluted sea area, the emission information of the nuclear pollution source, and the prediction time period.

[0144] In an alternative embodiment of the present application, the suspended matter information at least includes the state variable information of phytoplankton, zooplankton, large debris, and small debris;

[0145] Establishing a calculation scheme for the spatio-temporal variation of the suspended matter concentration in the nuclear polluted sea area based on the suspended matter state variables in the suspended matter information to obtain the adsorption and sedimentation driving information of the suspended matter on the nuclide, including:

[0146] Performing state variable analysis on the suspended matter in the nuclear polluted sea area according to the suspended matter information to obtain the suspended matter type, the quantity of the suspended matter, and the generation parameters of the suspended matter in the nuclear polluted sea area;

[0147] Based on the quantity of the suspended matter, the generation parameters, and the suspended matter type, establish a calculation scheme for the spatio-temporal variation of the suspended matter concentration in the nuclear polluted sea area to obtain the adsorption and sedimentation driving information of the suspended matter on the nuclide.

[0148] In an alternative embodiment of the present application, the device is further configured to:

[0149] Obtain the radionuclide data of the pollution range of the nuclear polluted sea area;

[0150] Using a data fusion method, fuse the radionuclide data to the nuclear pollution background field corresponding to the pollution range to obtain the initial nuclear pollution information of the nuclear polluted sea area.

[0151] In an alternative embodiment of the present application, determining the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides during the prediction time period by means of the radionuclide transport and diffusion prediction model in combination with the marine hydrodynamic driving information, sea surface driving information, adsorption and sedimentation driving information, and the initial nuclear pollution information and nuclear pollution source term information of the nuclear polluted sea area includes:

[0152] By means of the radionuclide transport and diffusion prediction model, using the three-dimensional Euler algorithm, on the basis of the initial nuclear pollution information and nuclear pollution source term information, in combination with the marine hydrodynamic driving information, sea surface driving information, and adsorption and sedimentation driving information, determine the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides during the prediction time period;

[0153] Determining the marine transport and diffusion path of nuclear particles during the prediction time period by means of the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model in combination with the marine hydrodynamic driving information, sea surface driving information, and the initial nuclear pollution information and nuclear pollution source term information of the nuclear polluted sea area includes:

[0154] By means of the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model, using the random walk particle method, in combination with the marine hydrodynamic driving information, sea surface driving information, and the initial nuclear pollution information and nuclear pollution source term information, simulate the spatio-temporal behavior of radionuclides in the marine environment, and determine the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides during the prediction time period.

[0155] The above device embodiment provided in this embodiment and the method embodiment of the present application belong to the same inventive concept, and can execute the prediction method for the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides provided in any of the above embodiments of the present application, and has the corresponding functional modules and beneficial effects for executing the prediction method for the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides. For the technical details not described in detail in this embodiment, reference may be made to the specific processing content of the prediction method for the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides provided in the above embodiments of the present application, and details will not be elaborated here.

[0156] It should be understood that the units in the above device can be implemented in the form of a processor calling software. For example, the device includes a processor, the processor is connected to a memory, instructions are stored in the memory, and the processor calls the instructions stored in the memory to implement any of the above methods or the functions of each unit of the device. The processor can be a general-purpose processor, such as a CPU or a microprocessor, etc., and the memory can be a memory inside the device or a memory outside the device. Alternatively, the units in the device can be implemented in the form of hardware circuits. By designing the hardware circuits, the functions of some or all of the units can be implemented. The hardware circuits can be understood as one or more processors. For example, in one implementation, the hardware circuit is an ASIC, and by designing the logical relationships of the components in the circuit, the functions of some or all of the above units are implemented. Again, for example, in another implementation, the hardware circuit can be implemented by a PLD. Taking an FPGA as an example, it can include a large number of logic gate circuits, and the connection relationships between the logic gate circuits are configured through a configuration file, so as to implement the functions of some or all of the above units. All units of the above device can be all implemented in the form of a processor calling software, or all implemented in the form of hardware circuits, or some implemented in the form of a processor calling software, and the remaining part implemented in the form of hardware circuits.

[0157] In the embodiments of the present application, the processor is a circuit with the ability to process signals. In one implementation, the processor can be a circuit with the ability to read and execute instructions, such as a CPU, a microprocessor, a GPU, or a DSP, etc. In another implementation, the processor can implement certain functions through the logical relationships of hardware circuits, and the logical relationships of the hardware circuits are fixed or can be reconfigured. For example, the processor is a hardware circuit implemented by an ASIC or a PLD, such as an FPGA, etc. In a reconfigurable hardware circuit, the process of the processor loading a configuration document to implement the configuration of the hardware circuit can be understood as the process of the processor loading instructions to implement the functions of some or all of the above units. In addition, it can also be a hardware circuit designed for artificial intelligence, which can be understood as a kind of ASIC, such as an NPU, a TPU, a DPU, etc.

[0158] It can be seen that each unit in the above device can be one or more processors (or processing circuits) configured to implement the above method. For example: CPU, GPU, NPU, TPU, DPU, microprocessor, DSP, ASIC, FPGA, or a combination of at least two of these processor forms.

[0159] In addition, all or part of the units in the above device can be integrated together or can be implemented independently. In one implementation, these units are integrated together and implemented in the form of a System on Chip (SOC). The SOC may include at least one processor for implementing any of the above methods or the functions of each unit of the device. The types of the at least one processor can be different, such as including a CPU and an FPGA, a CPU and an artificial intelligence processor, a CPU and a GPU, etc.

[0160] Embodiments of this application also provide an electronic device, such as Figure 4 shown Figure 4 is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device provided by an embodiment of this application.

[0161] such as Figure 4 shown, the electronic device includes:

[0162] a processor 210;

[0163] a memory 200 for storing executable instructions of the processor 210;

[0164] The processor 210 is configured to execute the prediction method for the radioactive nuclide ocean transport and diffusion path disclosed in any of the above embodiments by running the instructions in the memory 200.

[0165] The processor 210, the memory 200, the communication interface 220, the input device 230, and the output device 240 are interconnected through a bus. Among them:

[0166] The bus may include a path for transmitting information between various components of the computer system.

[0167] The processor 210 can be a general-purpose processor, such as a general-purpose central processing unit (CPU), a microprocessor, etc., or an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), or one or more integrated circuits for controlling the execution of the program of the solution of the present invention. It can also be a digital signal processor (DSP), an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC), a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components.

[0168] The processor 210 may include a main processor and may also include a baseband chip, a modem, etc.

[0169] The program for implementing the technical solution of the present invention is stored in the memory 200, and the operating system and other key services may also be stored. Specifically, the program may include program code, and the program code includes computer operation instructions. More specifically, the memory 200 may include a read-only memory (ROM), other types of static storage devices that can store static information and instructions, a random access memory (RAM), other types of dynamic storage devices that can store information and instructions, a disk memory, a flash memory, and so on.

[0170] The input device 230 may include devices for receiving data and information input by a user, such as a keyboard, a mouse, a camera, a scanner, a touch screen, etc.

[0171] The output device 240 may include devices for allowing information to be output to a user, such as a display screen, a printer, a speaker, etc.

[0172] The communication interface 220 may include any transceiver-like device for communicating with other devices or communication networks, such as an Ethernet, a radio access network (RAN), a wireless local area network (WLAN), etc.

[0173] The processor 210 executes the program stored in the memory 200 and calls other devices, and can be used to implement each step of any one of the methods for predicting the radioactive nuclide ocean transport and diffusion path provided in the above embodiments of the present application.

[0174] In addition to the above methods and devices, the embodiments of the present application may also be a computer program product, which includes computer program instructions, and when the computer program instructions are run by a processor, the processor is caused to execute the steps in the method for predicting the radioactive nuclide ocean transport and diffusion path in various embodiments of the present application.

[0175] The computer program product may be written in any combination of one or more programming languages for executing the program code for operating the embodiments of the present application. The programming languages include object-oriented programming languages, such as Java, C++, etc., and also include conventional procedural programming languages, such as the "C" language or similar programming languages. The program code may be executed entirely on a user computing device, partially on a user device, executed as an independent software package, partially on a user computing device and partially on a remote computing device, or entirely on a remote computing device or server.

[0176] Furthermore, the embodiments of the present application may also be a storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, and the computer program is executed by a processor to perform the steps in the method for predicting the radioactive nuclide ocean transport and diffusion path in various embodiments of the present application.

[0177] For each of the foregoing method embodiments, for the sake of simple description, they are all expressed as a series of combinations of actions. However, those skilled in the art should be aware that this application is not limited by the described order of actions, because according to this application, certain steps can be performed in other orders or simultaneously. Secondly, those skilled in the art should also be aware that the embodiments described in the specification are all preferred embodiments, and the actions and modules involved are not necessarily essential to this application.

[0178] It should be noted that the embodiments in this specification are all described in a progressive manner. Each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments. For the same or similar parts among the embodiments, reference can be made to each other. For device embodiments, since they are basically similar to the method embodiments, the description is relatively simple, and reference can be made to the corresponding parts of the method embodiments for the relevant content.

[0179] The steps in the methods of the embodiments of this application can be adjusted, combined, and deleted according to actual needs. The technical features recorded in each embodiment can be replaced or combined.

[0180] The modules and sub-modules in the devices and terminals in the embodiments of this application can be combined, divided, and deleted according to actual needs.

[0181] In several embodiments provided by this application, it should be understood that the disclosed terminals, devices, and methods can be implemented in other ways. For example, the terminal embodiments described above are only illustrative. For example, the division of modules or sub-modules is only a logical function division. In actual implementation, there can be other division methods. For example, multiple sub-modules or modules can be combined or integrated into another module, or some features can be ignored or not executed. Another point is that the displayed or discussed coupling or direct coupling or communication connection to each other can be through some interfaces. The indirect coupling or communication connection of devices or modules can be in electrical, mechanical, or other forms.

[0182] The modules or sub-modules described as separate components may or may not be physically separated. The components serving as modules or sub-modules may or may not be physical modules or sub-modules, that is, they can be located in one place, or they can be distributed to multiple network modules or sub-modules. Some or all of the modules or sub-modules can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of this embodiment.

[0183] In addition, in each embodiment of the present application, each functional module or sub-module can be integrated into a processing module, or each module or sub-module can exist physically alone, or two or more modules or sub-modules can be integrated into one module. The above-mentioned integrated module or sub-module can be implemented in the form of hardware, or in the form of a software functional module or sub-module.

[0184] Those skilled in the art can further realize that the units and algorithm steps of each example described in combination with the embodiments disclosed in this article can be implemented by electronic hardware, computer software, or a combination of the two. To clearly illustrate the interchangeability of hardware and software, the composition and steps of each example have been generally described according to functions in the above description. Whether these functions are executed in a hardware or software manner depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Skilled professionals can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered to exceed the scope of this application.

[0185] The steps of the method or algorithm described in combination with the embodiments disclosed in this article can be directly implemented by hardware, a software unit executed by a processor, or a combination of the two. The software unit can be placed in a random access memory (RAM), internal memory, read-only memory (ROM), electrically programmable ROM, electrically erasable programmable ROM, registers, hard disk, removable disk, CD-ROM, or any other form of storage medium well-known in the technical field.

[0186] Finally, it should also be noted that in this article, relational terms such as first and second are only used to distinguish one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and do not necessarily require or imply any such actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Moreover, the term "comprising", "including" or any other variant thereof is intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, article or device including a series of elements not only includes those elements, but also includes other elements not expressly listed, or also includes elements inherent to such process, method, article or device. Without further limitation, an element defined by the statement "including one..." does not exclude the existence of additional identical elements in the process, method, article or device including the said element.

[0187] The foregoing description of the disclosed embodiments enables those skilled in the art to implement or use the present application. Various modifications to these embodiments will be apparent to those skilled in the art, and the general principles defined herein can be implemented in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the present application. Therefore, the present application will not be limited to the embodiments shown herein, but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the oceanic transport and diffusion path of radionuclides, characterized in that: include: Determine at least one marine environment information forecasting system corresponding to the pollution range of the nuclear contaminated sea area, each of the marine environment information forecasting systems has a different spatial resolution, and the regional range of the marine environment information forecasting system at least includes the pollution range; According to the spatial resolution and regional range of each of the marine environment information forecasting systems, determine the hydrodynamic element information and suspended matter information corresponding to the forecast time period from each of the marine environment information forecasting systems, and determine the atmospheric environment information of the nuclear contaminated sea area within the forecast time period from the atmospheric environment information forecasting system; Based on the hydrodynamic element information and the atmospheric environment information, construct the ocean hydrodynamic driving information and the sea surface driving information of the nuclide diffusion in the nuclear contaminated sea area; In the case where the nuclide category of the nuclear contaminated sea area is a nuclide that is easily adsorbed on suspended matter, the parameters of the radionuclide transport and diffusion prediction model are configured according to the radionuclide information of the nuclear contaminated sea area; based on the suspended matter state variables in the suspended matter information, a calculation scheme for the spatiotemporal variation of the suspended matter concentration in the nuclear contaminated sea area is established to obtain the adsorption and sedimentation driving information of the suspended matter on the nuclide; through the radionuclide transport and diffusion prediction model, combined with the ocean hydrodynamic driving information, the sea surface driving information, the adsorption and sedimentation driving information, and the initial nuclear pollution information and nuclear pollution source item information of the nuclear contaminated sea area, the ocean transport and diffusion path of the radionuclide within the forecast time period is determined; In the case where the nuclide type of the nuclear contaminated sea area is a nuclide that is not easily adsorbed on suspended matter, the parameters of the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model are configured according to the radioactive nuclide information of the nuclear contaminated sea area; through the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model, combined with the ocean hydrodynamic driving information, sea surface driving information, and the initial nuclear pollution information and nuclear pollution source item information of the nuclear contaminated sea area, the ocean transport and diffusion path of the nuclear particles in the forecast time period is determined; According to the ocean transport and diffusion path of the radioactive nuclides and / or nuclear particles, the pollution range is updated, and the step of returning to execute the step of determining at least one marine environment information forecasting system corresponding to the pollution range of the nuclear contaminated sea area; The adsorption and sedimentation driving information is obtained based on the concentration of the suspended matter, and the concentration of the suspended matter is determined by the following formula: ρ s =SDetC+LDetC+SDetN+LDetN; Among them, ρ s represents the total concentration of the suspended matter; SDetC represents the concentration of small carbonaceous debris; LDetC represents the concentration of large carbonaceous debris; r P represents the ratio of carbon to nitrogen in phytoplankton; r z represents the ratio of carbon to nitrogen in zooplankton; Zoo represents the amount of zooplankton in seawater; Phy represents the amount of phytoplankton in seawater; β is the predation assimilation absorption coefficient of zooplankton on phytoplankton; m z Represents the mortality rate of zooplankton; m P represents the mortality rate of phytoplankton; τ represents the aggregation rate of phytoplankton; g max represents the maximum predation rate of zooplankton, k p represents the half-saturation constant of zooplankton predation; r SDC represents the mineralization rate of small debris carbon; r LDC represents the mineralization rate of carbon in large debris; SDetN represents the concentration of nitrogen-containing small debris; LDetN represents the concentration of nitrogen-containing large debris; r SD represents the remineralization rate of small debris; r LD Represents the remineralization rate of large debris; ω s Indicates the sedimentation rate of small debris; ω L is the settling rate of large debris.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Determining the hydrodynamic element information and suspended matter information corresponding to the forecast time period from each of the marine environment information forecast systems according to the spatial resolution and regional range of each of the marine environment information forecast systems includes: From among the marine environment information forecasting systems, determining the marine environment information forecasting system with the highest resolution as the target forecasting system; In the target forecasting system, the hydrodynamic element information and suspended matter information corresponding to the pollution range are determined.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The method of constructing the ocean hydrodynamic driving information and sea surface driving information of the nuclide diffusion in the nuclear contaminated sea area based on the hydrodynamic element information and the atmospheric environment information includes: Obtaining a marine radionuclide diffusion calculation grid corresponding to the nuclear contaminated sea area; The atmospheric environment information is interpolated to the ocean nuclide diffusion calculation grid by a bilinear interpolation method to obtain the sea surface driving information; The hydrodynamic element information is interpolated to the marine nuclide diffusion calculation grid through a multivariate multiple surface interpolation method to obtain the marine hydrodynamic driving information.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The radionuclide information at least includes: the pollution scope of the nuclear contaminated sea area and the emission information of the nuclear pollution source; The step of configuring parameters of a radionuclide transport and diffusion prediction model according to the radionuclide information of the nuclear contaminated sea area, and the step of configuring parameters of a nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model according to the radionuclide information of the nuclear contaminated sea area, includes: According to the pollution scope of the nuclear contaminated sea area, the emission information of the nuclear pollution source and the forecast time period, the parameters of the radioactive nuclide transport diffusion forecast model and the nuclear particle transport diffusion forecast model are configured.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The suspended matter information at least includes state variable information of phytoplankton, zooplankton, large debris, and small debris; The method of establishing a calculation scheme for the spatiotemporal variation of the suspended matter concentration in the nuclear contaminated sea area based on the suspended matter state variables in the suspended matter information, and obtaining the adsorption and sedimentation driving information of the suspended matter on the nuclide, includes: According to the suspended matter information, a state variable analysis is performed on the suspended matter in the nuclear contaminated sea area to obtain the type and amount of the suspended matter in the nuclear contaminated sea area and generation parameters of the suspended matter; Based on the amount of the suspended matter, the generation parameters and the type of the suspended matter, a calculation scheme for the spatiotemporal variation of the suspended matter concentration in the nuclear contaminated sea area is established to obtain the adsorption and sedimentation driving information of the suspended matter on the nuclides.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Also includes: Obtaining radionuclide data of the contaminated area of ​​the nuclear contaminated sea area; The radioactive nuclide data are fused to the nuclear pollution background field corresponding to the pollution range by using a data fusion method to obtain the initial nuclear pollution information of the nuclear polluted sea area.

7. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 6, characterized in that: The method of determining the ocean transport and diffusion path of radionuclides within the forecast period by using the radionuclide transport and diffusion forecast model, in combination with the ocean hydrodynamic driving information, the sea surface driving information, the adsorption and sedimentation driving information, and the initial nuclear pollution information and nuclear pollution source information of the nuclear contaminated sea area, includes: The radionuclide transport and diffusion prediction model is used to determine the ocean transport and diffusion path of the radionuclide within the forecast time period by using a three-dimensional Euler algorithm based on the initial nuclear pollution information and nuclear pollution source information, combined with the ocean hydrodynamic driving information, sea surface driving information and adsorption sedimentation driving information; The method of determining the ocean transport and diffusion path of nuclear particles in the forecast period by using the nuclear particle transport and diffusion forecast model, combining the ocean hydrodynamic driving information, the sea surface driving information, and the initial nuclear pollution information and nuclear pollution source information of the nuclear contaminated sea area, comprises: The nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model is used to simulate the spatiotemporal behavior of radioactive nuclides in the marine environment by adopting the random walk particle method, combining the ocean hydrodynamic driving information, the sea surface driving information, the initial nuclear pollution information and the nuclear pollution source term information, and determine the ocean transport and diffusion path of radioactive nuclides within the forecast time period.

8. A forecasting system for the ocean transport and diffusion path of radionuclides, characterized in that: include: A radionuclide information collection and processing module, used to collect radionuclide information of nuclear contaminated sea areas, and determine at least one marine environment forecasting system corresponding to the pollution range of the nuclear contaminated sea areas; the spatial resolutions of the marine environment information forecasting systems are different, and the regional range of the marine environment information forecasting system at least includes the pollution range; A marine environment information processing module, for determining the hydrodynamic element information and suspended matter information corresponding to the forecast time period from each of the marine environment information forecast systems according to the spatial resolution and regional range of each of the marine environment information forecast systems, and determining the atmospheric environment information of the nuclear contaminated sea area within the forecast time period from the atmospheric environment information forecast system; And, based on the hydrodynamic element information and the atmospheric environment information, construct the ocean hydrodynamic driving information and sea surface driving information of the nuclide diffusion in the nuclear contaminated sea area; The nuclide source item processing module is used to analyze the nuclide category of the radioactive nuclide information in the nuclear contaminated sea area and determine the category of the nuclide; and configure the parameters of the radioactive nuclide transport and diffusion prediction model and the nuclear particle transport and diffusion prediction model according to the radioactive nuclide information in the nuclear contaminated sea area; The first diffusion path determination module is used to establish a calculation scheme for the spatiotemporal variation of suspended matter concentration in the nuclear contaminated sea area based on the suspended matter state variables in the suspended matter information, when the nuclide category in the nuclear contaminated sea area is a nuclide that is easily adsorbed on suspended matter, and obtain the adsorption and sedimentation driving information of the suspended matter on the nuclide; determine the ocean transport and diffusion path of the radioactive nuclides within the forecast time period through the radioactive nuclide transport and diffusion prediction model, combined with the ocean hydrodynamic driving information, the sea surface driving information, the adsorption and sedimentation driving information, and the nuclear pollution initial information and nuclear pollution source item information of the nuclear contaminated sea area; The second diffusion path determination module is used to determine the ocean transport diffusion path of nuclear particles in the forecast time period by combining the ocean hydrodynamic driving information, sea surface driving information, and the initial nuclear pollution information and nuclear pollution source item information of the nuclear contaminated sea area through the nuclear particle transmission and diffusion prediction model when the nuclide type of the nuclear contaminated sea area is a nuclide that is not easily adsorbed on suspended matter; A pollution range updating module, used for updating the pollution range according to the ocean transport and diffusion path of the radioactive nuclides and / or nuclear particles; The adsorption and sedimentation driving information is obtained based on the concentration of the suspended matter, and the concentration of the suspended matter is determined by the following formula: ρ s =SDetC+LDetC+SDetN+LDetN; Among them, ρ s represents the total concentration of the suspended matter; SDetC represents the concentration of small carbonaceous debris; LDetC represents the concentration of large carbonaceous debris; r P represents the ratio of carbon to nitrogen in phytoplankton; r z represents the ratio of carbon to nitrogen in zooplankton; Zoo represents the amount of zooplankton in seawater; Phy represents the amount of phytoplankton in seawater; β is the predation assimilation absorption coefficient of zooplankton on phytoplankton; m z Represents the mortality rate of zooplankton; m P represents the mortality rate of phytoplankton; τ represents the aggregation rate of phytoplankton; g max represents the maximum predation rate of zooplankton, kp represents the half-saturation constant of zooplankton predation; r SDC represents the mineralization rate of small debris carbon; r LDC represents the mineralization rate of carbon in large debris; SDetN represents the concentration of nitrogen-containing small debris; LDetN represents the concentration of nitrogen-containing large debris; r SD represents the remineralization rate of small debris; r LD Represents the remineralization rate of large debris; ω s Indicates the sedimentation rate of small debris; ω L is the settling rate of large debris.

9. An electronic device, characterized in that: include: processor; a memory for storing instructions executable by the processor; The processor is used to execute the method for predicting the marine transport and diffusion path of radionuclides as described in any one of claims 1 to 7 by running the instructions in the memory.

10. A computer storage medium, characterized in that: The computer storage medium stores instructions, and when the instructions are executed, the method for predicting the marine transport and diffusion path of radioactive nuclides as described in any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.

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