Solar radiation time downscaling method and device based on clearness factor

Abstract

The invention provides a sunny factor-based solar radiation time downscaling method and device, and relates to the technical field of energy prediction. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring a first total irradiance under an original time resolution; first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation under the original time resolution and second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation under the target time resolution are calculated respectively, and the target time resolution is higher than the original time resolution; determining a first clear sky factor of the original time resolution according to the first total irradiance and the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation, and performing time downscaling processing on the first clear sky factor to obtain a second clear sky factor of the target time resolution; and determining a second total irradiance under the target time resolution according to the second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation and the second clearness factor. According to the invention, the solar radiation forecasting precision can be improved, and the operation management of the photovoltaic system is optimized.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present disclosure relates to the technical field of energy forecasting, and in particular to a method and device for downscaling solar radiation time based on a clear sky factor. Background Art

[0002] Solar radiation is closely related to our lives. It is an important indicator of a place's solar energy resources and a major factor affecting the power supply of solar power stations. For example, accurate solar radiation forecasts can assist solar power stations in rationally arranging power generation plans, improving power generation efficiency and stability, and optimizing the operation and maintenance of photovoltaic power.

[0003] At present, the temporal resolution of solar radiation forecast products is low and cannot meet the assessment requirements of solar power plants. On this basis, the temporal resolution of solar radiation forecast products is usually improved by statistical downscaling. However, this method relies on observation data such as observation site data to a certain extent and is not universal.

[0004] Therefore, there is an urgent need to provide a new solar radiation time downscaling scheme to improve the accuracy of solar radiation forecasting.

[0005] It should be noted that the information disclosed in the above background technology section is only used to enhance the understanding of the background of the present disclosure, and therefore may include information that does not constitute the prior art known to ordinary technicians in the field. Summary of the invention

[0006] The purpose of the embodiments of the present disclosure is to provide a method, device, medium and equipment for time downscaling of solar radiation based on a clear sky factor, thereby at least to a certain extent solving the problem of low accuracy of solar radiation forecasting in related technologies due to low temporal resolution of solar radiation forecast products.

[0007] According to a first aspect of an embodiment of the present disclosure, a method for downscaling solar radiation time based on a clear sky factor is provided, comprising: Obtain the first total irradiance at the original time resolution; respectively calculating a first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution and a second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the target time resolution, wherein the target time resolution is higher than the original time resolution; Determine a first clear sky factor of the original time resolution according to the first total irradiance and the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation; Performing time downscaling processing on the first clear sky factor to obtain a second clear sky factor of the target time resolution; A second total irradiance at the target time resolution is determined based on the second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation and the second clear sky factor.

[0008] In an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure, the calculating the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution includes: Obtain solar radiation geometric parameters, and calculate the instantaneous astronomical irradiance at different points within the target range in combination with the solar position parameters within the target range; Within the forecast time interval corresponding to the original time resolution, the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution is calculated according to each of the instantaneous astronomical irradiances.

[0009] In an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure, the step of obtaining solar radiation geometric parameters and calculating instantaneous astronomical irradiance at different points within the target range in combination with solar position parameters within the target range includes: Performing trigonometric operations based on the solar position parameters and solar radiation geometric parameters within the target range to obtain the solar altitude angle, wherein the solar position parameters include the geographic latitude, and the solar radiation geometric parameters include the declination angle and the hour angle; Calculate the sun-earth distance correction coefficient corresponding to each moment in the preset time period based on the day ordinal number in the year to which the preset time period belongs; The instantaneous astronomical irradiance at different points within the target range is calculated based on the sun-earth distance correction coefficient, solar altitude angle and solar constant corresponding to each moment within a preset time period.

[0010] In an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure, the calculating the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution according to each of the instantaneous astronomical irradiances within the forecast time interval corresponding to the original time resolution includes: In the forecast time interval corresponding to the original time resolution, each instantaneous astronomical irradiance is accumulated to obtain the total radiation in the forecast time interval; The first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation is determined according to a ratio between the total radiation amount and the duration of the forecast time interval.

[0011] In an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure, determining the first clear sky factor of the original time resolution according to the first total irradiance and the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation includes: A first clear sky factor within a forecast time interval corresponding to the original time resolution is determined based on a ratio between the first total irradiance and the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation.

[0012] In an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure, performing time downscaling processing on the first clear sky factor to obtain a second clear sky factor of the target time resolution includes: The first clear sky factor is interpolated to obtain a second clear sky factor of the target time resolution.

[0013] In an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure, the obtaining of the first total irradiance at the original time resolution includes: Obtain the cumulative radiation corresponding to multiple target time periods within a preset time period; A first total irradiance corresponding to the original time resolution is obtained according to a ratio between the cumulative radiation amount and the duration of the target time period.

[0014] According to a second aspect of an embodiment of the present disclosure, a solar radiation time downscaling device based on a clear sky factor is provided, comprising: A first radiation forecast data acquisition module, used to acquire a first total irradiance at an original time resolution; an extraterrestrial astronomical radiation determination module, used to respectively calculate a first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution and a second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at a target time resolution, wherein the target time resolution is higher than the original time resolution; A first clear sky factor determination module, configured to determine a first clear sky factor of the original time resolution according to the first total irradiance and the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation; A second clear sky factor determination module is used to perform time downscaling processing on the first clear sky factor to obtain a second clear sky factor of the target time resolution; A second radiation forecast data determination module is used to determine a second total irradiance at the target time resolution based on the second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation and the second clear sky factor.

[0015] According to a third aspect of the present disclosure, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, on which a computer program is stored. When the computer program is executed by a processor, any step of the method for time downscaling of solar radiation based on the clear sky factor described in the first aspect is implemented.

[0016] According to a fourth aspect of the present disclosure, there is provided an electronic device, including: A processor and a memory, wherein the memory stores computer-readable instructions, and when the computer-readable instructions are executed by the processor, any step of the solar radiation time downscaling method based on the clear sky factor described in the first aspect is implemented.

[0017] The technical solution provided by the embodiments of the present disclosure may have the following beneficial effects: The solar radiation time downscaling method based on the clear sky factor provided in the example embodiment of the present disclosure is achieved by acquiring a first total irradiance at an original time resolution; respectively calculating a first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution and a second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at a target time resolution, wherein the target time resolution is higher than the original time resolution; determining a first clear sky factor at the original time resolution according to the first total irradiance and the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation, and performing time downscaling on the first clear sky factor to obtain a second clear sky factor at the target time resolution; and determining a second total irradiance at the target time resolution according to the second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation and the second clear sky factor. On the one hand, by considering the impact of clear sky factors on the total ground radiation, photovoltaic radiation data with lower time resolution is converted into photovoltaic radiation data with higher time resolution. On the basis of ensuring the accuracy of photovoltaic forecast data, the accuracy of solar radiation forecast is improved, thereby optimizing the operation and management of photovoltaic systems, helping to better cope with the intermittent and uncertain nature of solar power generation, thereby improving the stability and efficiency of the entire power system; on the other hand, there is no need to rely on observational data for solar radiation downscaling, which can better adapt to different application scenarios and regional characteristics, improve the flexibility of solar radiation forecasting, and avoid the accuracy of solar radiation forecasting due to the lack of observational data, and the need for frequent calibration and maintenance of observation equipment, thereby reducing operation and maintenance costs.

[0018] It is to be understood that the foregoing general description and the following detailed description are exemplary and explanatory only and are not restrictive of the present disclosure. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0019] The accompanying drawings herein are incorporated into the specification and constitute a part of the specification, illustrate embodiments consistent with the present disclosure, and together with the specification are used to explain the principles of the present disclosure. Obviously, the accompanying drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present disclosure, and for ordinary technicians in this field, other accompanying drawings can be obtained based on these accompanying drawings without creative work.

[0020] Figure 1 A system architecture diagram of a clear sky factor-based solar radiation time downscaling method to which an embodiment of the present disclosure can be applied is shown.

[0021] Figure 2 A flowchart of a method for downscaling solar radiation time based on a clear sky factor in an embodiment of the present disclosure is shown.

[0022] Figure 3 A flowchart for determining a first total irradiance at an original time resolution in an embodiment of the present disclosure is shown.

[0023] Figure 4A schematic diagram of the principle of a solar radiation time downscaling method based on a clear sky factor in an embodiment of the present disclosure is shown.

[0024] Figure 5 A schematic diagram of a solar radiation time downscaling device based on a clear sky factor in an embodiment of the present disclosure is shown.

[0025] Figure 6 A schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device suitable for implementing the embodiments of the present disclosure is shown.

[0026] In the drawings, the same or corresponding reference numerals represent the same or corresponding parts. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0027] The terms used in this specification are for the purpose of describing specific embodiments only and are not intended to limit this specification. The singular forms "a", "the" and "the" used in this specification and the appended claims are also intended to include plural forms unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. It should also be understood that the term "and / or" used herein refers to and includes any or all possible combinations of one or more associated listed items.

[0028] It should be understood that although the terms first, second, third, etc. may be used in this specification to describe various information, this information should not be limited to these terms. These terms are only used to distinguish the same type of information from each other. For example, without departing from the scope of this specification, the first information may also be referred to as the second information, and similarly, the second information may also be referred to as the first information. Depending on the context, the word "if" as used herein may be interpreted as "at the time of" or "when" or "in response to determining".

[0029] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of the system architecture of a clear sky factor-based solar radiation time downscaling method to which the embodiment of the present disclosure can be applied is shown.

[0030] like Figure 1 As shown, the system architecture 100 may include one or more of terminal devices such as a smart phone 101, a portable computer 102, a desktop computer 103, a network 104, and a server 105. The network 104 is used to provide a medium for a communication link between the terminal device and the server 105. The network 104 may include various connection types, such as wired, wireless communication links, or optical fiber cables, etc.

[0031] The terminal device may be any electronic device with data processing function, and the electronic device has a display screen, and the display screen is used to display to the user the first total irradiance and the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution, the second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation and the second total irradiance at the target time resolution, and the first clear sky factor at the original time resolution and the second clear sky factor at the target time resolution, etc. The electronic device includes but is not limited to the above-mentioned desktop computer, portable computer, smart phone, tablet computer, etc.

[0032] It should be understood that Figure 1 The number of terminal devices, networks and servers in the embodiment is only for illustration. According to the implementation requirements, there may be any number of terminal devices, networks and servers. For example, the server 105 may be a server cluster composed of multiple servers.

[0033] The solar radiation time downscaling method based on the clear sky factor provided in the embodiment of the present disclosure can be executed by a terminal device, and accordingly, the solar radiation time downscaling device based on the clear sky factor can be set in the terminal device. However, it is easy for those skilled in the art to understand that the solar radiation time downscaling method based on the clear sky factor provided in the embodiment of the present disclosure can also be executed by the server 105, and accordingly, the solar radiation time downscaling device based on the clear sky factor can also be set in the server 105, which is not particularly limited in this exemplary embodiment.

[0034] The embodiment of the present disclosure first provides a solar radiation time downscaling method based on a clear sky factor. The method is described below using server execution as an example.

[0035] Figure 2 The flowchart of a method for downscaling solar radiation time based on a clear sky factor in an embodiment of the present disclosure is schematically shown. Figure 2 As shown, the method may include steps S210 to S250: Step S210, obtaining a first total irradiance at an original time resolution; Step S220, respectively calculating a first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution and a second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the target time resolution, wherein the target time resolution is higher than the original time resolution; Step S230, determining a first clear sky factor of the original time resolution according to the first total irradiance and the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation; Step S240, performing time downscaling processing on the first clear sky factor to obtain a second clear sky factor of the target time resolution; Step S250: determining a second total irradiance at the target time resolution according to the second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation and the second clear sky factor.

[0036] The solar radiation time downscaling method based on the clear sky factor provided in the present invention is implemented. On the one hand, by considering the impact of the clear sky factor on the total ground radiation, photovoltaic radiation data with lower time resolution is converted into photovoltaic radiation data with higher time resolution. On the basis of ensuring the accuracy of photovoltaic forecast data, the accuracy of solar radiation forecast is improved, thereby optimizing the operation and management of the photovoltaic system, helping to better cope with the intermittent and uncertain nature of solar power generation, thereby improving the stability and efficiency of the entire power system. On the other hand, there is no need to rely on observation data for solar radiation downscaling, which can better adapt to different application scenarios and regional characteristics, improve the flexibility of solar radiation forecasting, and avoid affecting the accuracy of solar radiation forecasting due to the lack of observation data, and do not require frequent calibration and maintenance of observation equipment, thereby reducing operation and maintenance costs.

[0037] The solar radiation time downscaling method based on the clear sky factor in this example embodiment will be described in detail below.

[0038] In step S210, a first total irradiance at an original time resolution is obtained.

[0039] In a solar power station, the downward shortwave radiation data provided by the numerical weather forecast model is usually used as the forecast value of the total irradiance. The total irradiance refers to the total solar radiation received on the horizontal plane, including direct radiation and scattered radiation. In the embodiment of the present specification, the original time resolution is lower than the target time resolution. For example, the original time resolution is 1 hour and the target time resolution is 15 minutes. Of course, different original time resolutions and target time resolutions can be selected according to actual needs, as long as the original time resolution is lower than the target time resolution, and the present disclosure does not limit this.

[0040] Exemplarily, the cumulative radiation corresponding to multiple target time periods within a preset time period can be obtained, and the first total irradiance corresponding to the original time resolution can be obtained according to the ratio between the cumulative radiation and the duration of the target time period. Among them, the preset time period can be one day, three days, or other time periods, and the target time period can be one hour, 30 minutes, etc., which are not limited in the present disclosure. It can be understood that the first total irradiance at the original time resolution can be a total irradiance data set containing multiple time points, or it can refer to the total irradiance at one of the time points. For example, in the example implementation of the present disclosure, the instantaneous total irradiance at the middle moment of the original time resolution can be used as the first total irradiance at the original time resolution.

[0041] For example, for the radiation element data of the surface forecast elements provided by a forecast center for the first 90 hours from the start of the forecast, the spatial resolution of this part of the data is 0.1° and the temporal resolution is 1h. Among them, the radiation element data includes the downward shortwave radiation at each time point. At this time, the preset time period is 90 hours. If the target time period is one hour, the number of target time periods within the preset time period is 90. Starting from the first target time period, the downward shortwave radiation of two time points separated by one hour can be subtracted to obtain the cumulative radiation in the first target time period, and the cumulative radiation of other target time periods can be calculated in the same way.

[0042] After obtaining the cumulative radiation of each target time period, the ratio of the cumulative radiation of each target time period to the duration of each target time period can be calculated. This value is the first total irradiance at the middle moment of each target time period, and the first total irradiance with an original time resolution of 1 hour is obtained.

[0043] Of course, the first total irradiance at the original time resolution may also be directly obtained from the surface forecast elements provided by the forecast center, and the present disclosure does not limit this.

[0044] In step S220, a first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution and a second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the target time resolution are calculated respectively, wherein the target time resolution is higher than the original time resolution.

[0045] Among them, extraterrestrial astronomical radiation refers to electromagnetic radiation from outside the earth's atmosphere. It should be noted that the calculation method of the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution and the second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the target time resolution are the same. The embodiment of this specification only takes the calculation of the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution as an example for explanation, and the calculation process of the second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the target time resolution is not described in detail.

[0046] refer to Figure 3 As shown, the process of calculating the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution may include step S310 and step S320: Step S310, obtaining solar radiation geometric parameters, and calculating instantaneous astronomical irradiance at different points within the target range in combination with solar position parameters within the target range.

[0047] In an exemplary embodiment, it is necessary to determine the instantaneous astronomical irradiance of each point within the target range based on the solar constant, the sun-earth distance correction coefficient, and the solar altitude angle. The target range refers to the specific geographical location area where the instantaneous astronomical irradiance is calculated, which can be a point, a line, a surface, or a three-dimensional space. The present disclosure does not limit this. Among them, the solar constant refers to the solar radiation power received per unit area perpendicular to the direction of the sun's rays outside the Earth's atmosphere under standard conditions (such as one astronomical unit away from the sun), which is approximately 1.367kW / m². The sun-earth distance correction coefficient takes into account the elliptical nature of the Earth's orbit around the sun and is used to correct the solar radiation intensity. The solar altitude angle describes the height of the sun's position in the sky. When the solar altitude angle is high, the atmospheric path through which sunlight passes is shorter, so the radiation intensity received on the ground is greater.

[0048] Exemplarily, first, the solar altitude angle can be obtained by performing trigonometric operations based on the solar position parameters and the solar radiation geometric parameters. For example, the solar position parameters include at least the geographic latitude, and the solar radiation geometric parameters include the declination angle and the hour angle. Among them, the geographic latitude is used to determine the latitude position of a point on the earth's surface, the declination angle is used to determine the vertical position of the sun on the earth, and the hour angle is used to determine the horizontal position of the sun in the sky.

[0049] For example, when the trigonometric function calculation is performed based on the sun position parameters and the solar radiation geometric parameters to determine the sun altitude angle, we have: (1) in, is the solar altitude angle, is the geographical latitude, is the declination angle in degrees, is the hour angle; For formula (1), we have: (2) (3)

[0050] (4) (5) (6) in, It also represents the declination angle, but the unit is radians. In formula (2), in order to compare with the declination angle in degrees, To distinguish, use to represent the declination angle in radians, z is the number of hours from the forecast time to noon in the study area, the morning time is negative and the afternoon time is positive, For the sun angle, To accumulate daily numbers, year is the year to which the forecast time belongs, m is the day number in the year to which the forecast time belongs, such as January 1st corresponds to m =1, corresponding to January 2 m =2, int() is the rounding function.

[0051] Secondly, the sun-earth distance correction coefficient corresponding to each moment in the preset time period can be calculated based on the day number in the year to which the preset time period belongs, which is: (7) in, is the correction factor for the distance between the Sun and the Earth, m is the ordinal number of the day in the year to which the preset time period belongs, that is, the ordinal number of the day in the year to which the forecast time belongs; Finally, the instantaneous astronomical irradiance at each moment is calculated based on the corresponding sun-earth distance correction coefficient, solar altitude angle and solar constant at each moment within the preset time period.

[0052] (8) in, is the instantaneous astronomical irradiance, is the correction factor for the distance between the Sun and the Earth, is the solar constant, is the solar altitude angle.

[0053] Step S320, calculating the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution according to each of the instantaneous astronomical irradiances within the forecast time interval corresponding to the original time resolution.

[0054] For example, the instantaneous astronomical irradiance at each point in the forecast time interval corresponding to the original time resolution may be accumulated to obtain the total radiation in the forecast time interval, and then the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation is determined according to the ratio between the total radiation and the duration of the forecast time interval.

[0055] For example, there are: (9) in, is the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation within the forecast time interval corresponding to the original time resolution, is the instantaneous astronomical irradiance, is the forecast time interval corresponding to the original time resolution.

[0056] In this example, by calculating the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution and the second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the target time resolution, it is convenient to subsequently determine the clear sky factor, thereby improving the accuracy of the forecast data.

[0057] In step S230, a first clear sky factor of the original time resolution is determined according to the first total irradiance and the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation.

[0058] Among them, the clear sky factor refers to the ratio of the actual solar radiation received to the theoretical maximum solar radiation received under clear sky conditions. It can be used to evaluate the atmospheric transparency, that is, the degree to which the atmosphere attenuates solar radiation.

[0059] It should be noted that under different weather conditions, when the solar altitude angle is greater than 20°, the clear sky factor increases with the change of the solar altitude angle, but the increase gradually decreases, and the atmospheric composition changes little in a short period of time. Therefore, in the embodiments of this specification, it can be assumed that the clear sky factor in the period from the previous forecast time to the current forecast time changes linearly, then the total irradiance at the current forecast time is equal to the extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the previous forecast time multiplied by the clear sky factor, and the total irradiance at other forecast times is calculated by analogy.

[0060] Exemplarily, the first clear sky factor within the forecast time interval corresponding to the original time resolution can be determined according to the ratio between the first total irradiance and the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation.

[0061] For example, there are: (10) in, is the first clear sky factor within the forecast time interval corresponding to the original time resolution, I is the first total irradiance within the forecast time interval, It is the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation within the forecast time interval.

[0062] By calculating the clear sky factor, the atmospheric transparency can be assessed more accurately, thereby improving the accuracy of solar radiation forecasts. Even when some observation data are missing or abnormal, the clear sky factor can still provide reliable forecast results. Moreover, the clear sky factor can reflect the difference between the actual received solar radiation and the theoretical maximum value, helping the forecast system to more accurately predict changes in solar radiation. Importantly, the calculation method of the clear sky factor is relatively simple and does not require a large amount of additional observation data, which can reduce maintenance costs. The clear sky factor can better reflect changes in actual atmospheric conditions, thereby improving the robustness of the system.

[0063] In step S240, the first clear sky factor is subjected to time downscaling processing to obtain a second clear sky factor of the target time resolution.

[0064] In the embodiment of this specification, considering the influence of the clear sky factor on the total ground radiation, the clear sky factor is temporally downscaled to generate ground radiation data with higher temporal resolution. Temporal downscaling refers to converting data with lower temporal resolution into data with higher temporal resolution.

[0065] Exemplarily, after obtaining the first clear sky factor of the original time resolution, the first clear sky factor may be interpolated to obtain the second clear sky factor of the target time resolution. For example, linear interpolation, spline interpolation, and other methods may be used to temporally downscale the first clear sky factor.

[0066] Higher temporal resolution can better capture the changes in solar radiation in a short period of time (such as every 15 minutes), which helps to improve the accuracy of solar radiation forecasts. Moreover, more accurate forecast data can support more sophisticated management and scheduling, and improve the operating efficiency of solar power plants.

[0067] In step S250, a second total irradiance at the target time resolution is determined according to the second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation and the second clear sky factor.

[0068] After obtaining the second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation and the corresponding second clear sky factor at the target time resolution, the second total irradiance at the target time resolution can be determined according to formula (11). When the target time resolution is 15 minutes, we have: (11) in, is the second total irradiance at the target time resolution at time t, is the second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation 15 minutes before time t, It is the second clear sky factor within the forecast interval corresponding to the target time resolution.

[0069] refer to Figure 4 As shown, a schematic diagram of the principle of a solar radiation time downscaling method based on a clear sky factor is schematically given. Specifically, the downward shortwave radiation at each time point in the previous period of time (such as the previous 90 hours) from the start of the forecast in the surface forecast elements provided by a forecast center is obtained, and the horizontal surface cumulative radiation 401 of different time periods is obtained by subtracting the downward shortwave radiation of adjacent time points (such as a time interval of 1 hour). The first total irradiance 402 corresponding to the time resolution of 1 hour can be obtained by dividing the horizontal surface cumulative radiation 401 of each time period by the length of each time period.

[0070] With reference to formula (1) to formula (9), based on the solar constant, the accumulated day number, the forecast time year, the year-day ordinal number, the geographical latitude, the hour angle, the declination angle, the day angle, the solar altitude angle and the correction coefficient of the sun-earth distance, the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation 403 corresponding to the time resolution of 1 hour and the second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation 404 corresponding to the time resolution of 15 minutes are calculated respectively.

[0071] The first clear sky factor 405 corresponding to the time resolution of 1 hour is calculated by the ratio between the first total irradiance 402 corresponding to the time resolution of 1 hour and the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation 403 corresponding to the time resolution of 1 hour. Further, the first clear sky factor 405 corresponding to the time resolution of 1 hour is interpolated to obtain the second clear sky factor 406 corresponding to the time resolution of 15 minutes. Finally, the second total irradiance 407 corresponding to the time resolution of 15 minutes is calculated using the second clear sky factor 406 corresponding to the time resolution of 15 minutes and the second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation 404 corresponding to the time resolution of 15 minutes.

[0072] In this example, by considering the impact of the clear sky factor on the total ground radiation, the photovoltaic radiation data with lower time resolution is converted into photovoltaic radiation data with higher time resolution. On the basis of ensuring the accuracy of photovoltaic forecast data, the accuracy of solar radiation forecast is improved, so that the operation and management of the photovoltaic system can better cope with the intermittent and uncertain nature of solar power generation, thereby improving the stability and efficiency of the entire power system. In addition, there is no need to rely on observation data for solar radiation downscaling, which can better adapt to different application scenarios and regional characteristics, improve the flexibility of solar radiation forecasting, and avoid the impact of the lack of observation data on the accuracy of solar radiation forecasting and the need for frequent calibration and maintenance of observation equipment, thereby reducing operation and maintenance costs.

[0073] In this example implementation, a solar radiation time downscaling device based on a clear sky factor is also provided. Figure 5 As shown, the apparatus may include a first radiation forecast data acquisition module 510, an extraterrestrial astronomical radiation determination module 520, a first clear sky factor determination module 530, a second clear sky factor determination module 540 and a second radiation forecast data determination module 550, wherein: A first radiation forecast data acquisition module 510 is used to acquire a first total irradiance at an original time resolution; an extraterrestrial astronomical radiation determination module 520, configured to respectively calculate a first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution and a second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at a target time resolution, wherein the target time resolution is higher than the original time resolution; A first clear sky factor determination module 530 is used to determine a first clear sky factor of the original time resolution according to the first total irradiance and the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation; A second clear sky factor determination module 540 is configured to perform time downscaling processing on the first clear sky factor to obtain a second clear sky factor of the target time resolution; The second radiation forecast data determination module 550 is used to determine the second total irradiance at the target time resolution according to the second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation and the second clear sky factor.

[0074] In an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure, when calculating the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution, the extraterrestrial astronomical radiation determination module 520 is specifically configured to: Obtain solar radiation geometric parameters, and calculate the instantaneous astronomical irradiance at different points within the target range in combination with the solar position parameters within the target range; Within the forecast time interval corresponding to the original time resolution, the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution is calculated according to each of the instantaneous astronomical irradiances.

[0075] In an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure, the extraterrestrial astronomical radiation determination module 520 is specifically used to obtain solar radiation geometric parameters and calculate the instantaneous astronomical irradiance at different points within the target range in combination with the solar position parameters of the target range: Performing trigonometric operations based on the solar position parameters and solar radiation geometric parameters within the target range to obtain the solar altitude angle, wherein the solar position parameters include the geographic latitude, and the solar radiation geometric parameters include the declination angle and the hour angle; Calculate the sun-earth distance correction coefficient corresponding to each moment in the preset time period based on the day ordinal number in the year to which the preset time period belongs; The instantaneous astronomical irradiance at different points within the target range is calculated based on the sun-earth distance correction coefficient, solar altitude angle and solar constant corresponding to each moment within a preset time period.

[0076] In an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure, when the extraterrestrial astronomical radiation determination module 520 calculates the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution according to each instantaneous astronomical irradiance within the forecast time interval corresponding to the original time resolution, it is specifically used to: In the forecast time interval corresponding to the original time resolution, each instantaneous astronomical irradiance is accumulated to obtain the total radiation in the forecast time interval; The first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation is determined according to a ratio between the total radiation amount and the duration of the forecast time interval.

[0077] In an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure, when determining the first clear sky factor of the original time resolution according to the first total irradiance and the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation, the first clear sky factor determining module 530 is specifically configured to: A first clear sky factor within a forecast time interval corresponding to the original time resolution is determined based on a ratio between the first total irradiance and the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation.

[0078] In an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure, when the second clear sky factor determination module 540 performs time downscaling processing on the first clear sky factor to obtain the second clear sky factor of the target time resolution, it is specifically used to: The first clear sky factor is interpolated to obtain a second clear sky factor of the target time resolution.

[0079] In an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure, when the first radiation forecast data acquisition module 510 acquires the first total irradiance at the original time resolution, it is specifically used to: Obtain the cumulative radiation corresponding to multiple target time periods within a preset time period; A first total irradiance corresponding to the original time resolution is obtained according to a ratio between the cumulative radiation amount and the duration of the target time period.

[0080] The specific details of each module of the above-mentioned solar radiation time downscaling device based on clear sky factor have been described in detail in the corresponding solar radiation time downscaling method based on clear sky factor, so they will not be repeated here.

[0081] The exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure also provide a computer-readable storage medium on which a program product capable of implementing the above-mentioned method of the present specification is stored. In some possible implementations, various aspects of the present disclosure may also be implemented in the form of a program product, which includes a program code, and when the program product is run on an electronic device, the program code is used to enable the electronic device to perform the steps according to various exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure described in the above-mentioned "Exemplary Method" section of the present specification.

[0082] The program product may be in the form of a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM) and include program code, and may be run on an electronic device, such as a personal computer. However, the program product of the present disclosure is not limited thereto, and in this document, a readable storage medium may be any tangible medium containing or storing a program that may be used by or in conjunction with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device.

[0083] The program product may adopt any combination of one or more readable media. The readable medium may be a readable signal medium or a readable storage medium. The readable storage medium may be, for example, but not limited to, a system, device or component of electricity, magnetism, light, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor, or any combination thereof. More specific examples (non-exhaustive list) of readable storage media include: an electrical connection with one or more wires, a portable disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination thereof.

[0084] Computer readable signal media may include data signals propagated in baseband or as part of a carrier wave, in which readable program code is carried. Such propagated data signals may take a variety of forms, including but not limited to electromagnetic signals, optical signals, or any suitable combination of the above. Readable signal media may also be any readable medium other than a readable storage medium, which may send, propagate, or transmit a program for use by or in conjunction with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device.

[0085] The program code embodied on the readable medium may be transmitted using any appropriate medium, including but not limited to wireless, wired, optical cable, RF, etc., or any suitable combination of the foregoing.

[0086] Program code for performing the operations of the present disclosure may be written in any combination of one or more programming languages, including object-oriented programming languages ​​such as Java, C#, C++, etc., and conventional procedural programming languages ​​such as "C" or similar programming languages. The program code may be executed entirely on the user computing device, partially on the user device, as a separate software package, partially on the user computing device and partially on a remote computing device, or entirely on a remote computing device or server. In the case of a remote computing device, the remote computing device may be connected to the user computing device through any type of network, including a local area network (LAN) or a wide area network (WAN), or may be connected to an external computing device (e.g., via the Internet using an Internet service provider).

[0087] In addition, an exemplary embodiment of the present disclosure also provides an electronic device capable of implementing the above-mentioned solar radiation time downscaling method based on the clear sky factor.

[0088] Refer to the following Figure 6 hereinafter describes an electronic device 600 according to such an embodiment of the present disclosure. Figure 6The electronic device 600 shown is only an example and should not bring any limitation to the functions and scope of use of the embodiments of the present disclosure.

[0089] like Figure 6 As shown, the electronic device 600 is in the form of a general computing device. The components of the electronic device 600 may include but are not limited to: the at least one processing unit 610, the at least one storage unit 620, a bus 630 connecting different system components (including the storage unit 620 and the processing unit 610), and a display unit 640.

[0090] The storage unit 620 stores program codes, which can be executed by the processing unit 610, so that the processing unit 610 performs the steps according to various exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure described in the above “Exemplary Method” section of this specification. For example, the processing unit 610 can perform the method steps in the exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure.

[0091] The storage unit 620 may include a readable medium in the form of a volatile storage unit, such as a random access memory unit (RAM) 621 and / or a cache memory unit (Cache) 622 , and may further include a read-only memory unit (ROM) 623 .

[0092] The storage unit 620 may also include a program / utility 624 having a set (at least one) of program modules 625, such program modules 625 including but not limited to: an operating system, one or more application programs, other program modules, and program data, each of which or some combination may include an implementation of a network environment.

[0093] Bus 630 may represent one or more of several types of bus structures, including a memory unit bus or memory unit controller, a peripheral bus, an accelerated graphics port, a processing unit, or a local bus using any of a variety of bus architectures.

[0094] The electronic device 600 may also communicate with one or more external devices 700 (e.g., keyboards, pointing devices, Bluetooth devices, etc.), may also communicate with one or more devices that enable a user to interact with the electronic device 600, and / or communicate with any device that enables the electronic device 600 to communicate with one or more other computing devices (e.g., routers, modems, etc.). This communication may be performed through an input / output (I / O) interface 650. In addition, the electronic device 600 may also communicate with one or more networks (e.g., local area networks (LANs), wide area networks (WANs), and / or public networks, such as the Internet) through a network adapter 660. As shown, the network adapter 660 communicates with other modules of the electronic device 600 through a bus 630. It should be understood that, although not shown in the figure, other hardware and / or software modules may be used in conjunction with the electronic device 600, including but not limited to: microcode, device drivers, redundant processing units, external disk drive arrays, RAID systems, tape drives, and data backup storage systems, etc.

[0095] Through the description of the above embodiments, it is easy for those skilled in the art to understand that the example embodiments described here can be implemented by software, or by software combined with necessary hardware. Therefore, the technical solution according to the embodiment of the present disclosure can be embodied in the form of a software product, which can be stored in a non-volatile storage medium (which can be a CD-ROM, a USB flash drive, a mobile hard disk, etc.) or on a network, and includes several instructions to enable a computing device (which can be a personal computer, a server, a terminal device, or a network device, etc.) to execute the method according to the embodiment of the present disclosure.

[0096] In addition, the above-mentioned figures are only schematic illustrations of the processes included in the method according to the exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure, and are not intended to be limiting. It is easy to understand that the processes shown in the above-mentioned figures do not indicate or limit the time sequence of these processes. In addition, it is also easy to understand that these processes can be performed synchronously or asynchronously, for example, in multiple modules.

[0097] Through the description of the above embodiments, it is easy for those skilled in the art to understand that the example embodiments described here can be implemented by software, or by software combined with necessary hardware. Therefore, the technical solution according to the embodiment of the present disclosure can be embodied in the form of a software product, which can be stored in a non-volatile storage medium (which can be a CD-ROM, a USB flash drive, a mobile hard disk, etc.) or on a network, and includes several instructions to enable a computing device (which can be a personal computer, a server, a touch terminal, or a network device, etc.) to execute the method according to the embodiment of the present disclosure.

[0098] Those skilled in the art will readily appreciate other embodiments of the present disclosure after considering the specification and practicing the invention disclosed herein. This application is intended to cover any variations, uses, or adaptations of the present disclosure that follow the general principles of the present disclosure and include common knowledge or customary techniques in the art that are not disclosed in the present disclosure. The specification and examples are to be considered exemplary only, and the true scope and spirit of the present disclosure are indicated by the claims.

[0099] It should be understood that the present disclosure is not limited to the exact structures that have been described above and shown in the drawings, and that various modifications and changes may be made without departing from the scope thereof. The scope of the present disclosure is limited only by the appended claims.

Claims

1. A solar radiation time downscaling method based on clear sky factor, characterized in that: include: Obtain the first total irradiance at the original time resolution; respectively calculating a first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution and a second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the target time resolution, wherein the target time resolution is higher than the original time resolution; Determine a first clear sky factor of the original time resolution according to the first total irradiance and the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation; Performing time downscaling processing on the first clear sky factor to obtain a second clear sky factor of the target time resolution; A second total irradiance at the target time resolution is determined based on the second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation and the second clear sky factor.

2. The solar radiation time downscaling method based on clear sky factor according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The calculating the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution comprises: Obtain solar radiation geometric parameters, and calculate the instantaneous astronomical irradiance at different points within the target range in combination with the solar position parameters within the target range; Within the forecast time interval corresponding to the original time resolution, the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution is calculated according to each of the instantaneous astronomical irradiances.

3. The solar radiation time downscaling method based on clear sky factor according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The obtaining of solar radiation geometric parameters and calculating instantaneous astronomical irradiance at different points within the target range in combination with the solar position parameters within the target range include: Performing trigonometric operations based on the solar position parameters and solar radiation geometric parameters within the target range to obtain the solar altitude angle, wherein the solar position parameters include the geographic latitude, and the solar radiation geometric parameters include the declination angle and the hour angle; Calculate the sun-earth distance correction coefficient corresponding to each moment in the preset time period based on the day ordinal number in the year to which the preset time period belongs; The instantaneous astronomical irradiance at different points within the target range is calculated based on the sun-earth distance correction coefficient, solar altitude angle and solar constant corresponding to each moment within a preset time period.

4. The solar radiation time downscaling method based on clear sky factor according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The step of calculating the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution according to each instantaneous astronomical irradiance within the forecast time interval corresponding to the original time resolution comprises: In the forecast time interval corresponding to the original time resolution, each instantaneous astronomical irradiance is accumulated to obtain the total radiation in the forecast time interval; The first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation is determined according to a ratio between the total radiation amount and the duration of the forecast time interval.

5. The solar radiation time downscaling method based on clear sky factor according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The determining of the first clear sky factor of the original time resolution according to the first total irradiance and the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation comprises: A first clear sky factor within a forecast time interval corresponding to the original time resolution is determined based on a ratio between the first total irradiance and the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation.

6. The solar radiation time downscaling method based on clear sky factor according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The performing time downscaling processing on the first clear sky factor to obtain a second clear sky factor of the target time resolution includes: The first clear sky factor is interpolated to obtain a second clear sky factor of the target time resolution.

7. The solar radiation time downscaling method based on clear sky factor according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The obtaining of the first total irradiance at the original time resolution comprises: Obtain the cumulative radiation corresponding to multiple target time periods within a preset time period; A first total irradiance corresponding to the original time resolution is obtained according to a ratio between the cumulative radiation amount and the duration of the target time period.

8. A solar radiation time downscaling device based on clear sky factor, characterized in that: include: A first radiation forecast data acquisition module, used to acquire a first total irradiance at an original time resolution; an extraterrestrial astronomical radiation determination module, used to respectively calculate a first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at the original time resolution and a second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation at a target time resolution, wherein the target time resolution is higher than the original time resolution; A first clear sky factor determination module, configured to determine a first clear sky factor of the original time resolution according to the first total irradiance and the first extraterrestrial astronomical radiation; A second clear sky factor determination module is used to perform time downscaling processing on the first clear sky factor to obtain a second clear sky factor of the target time resolution; A second radiation forecast data determination module is used to determine a second total irradiance at the target time resolution based on the second extraterrestrial astronomical radiation and the second clear sky factor.

9. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for time downscaling of solar radiation based on clear sky factor described in any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.

10. An electronic device, characterized in that: include: Processor; and A memory having computer-readable instructions stored thereon, wherein the computer-readable instructions, when executed by the processor, implement the solar radiation time downscaling method based on the clear sky factor as described in any one of claims 1 to 7.

Images