Regional energy economic environment network coupling development evaluation system and method

Abstract

The invention discloses a regional energy economic environment network coupling development evaluation system and method, and the method comprises the following steps: 1, carrying out the arrangement of energy data, economic data and pollutants over the years in the statistical yearbook of each administrative unit in a designated region, and forming analysis panel data; 2, searching and analyzing energy data and pollutant data researched by various authoritative institutions, and determining that the data has a good supporting effect on analysis in 2030, 2050 and 2060; meanwhile, a prediction model about the GDP and the three industries is constructed based on the regional economy development law and compared with related mechanism data, the future regional economy development trend is effectively predicted, development evaluation work of an energy-economy-environment system can be effectively and quantitatively carried out, an iterative optimization mode is formed, and the development evaluation efficiency of the energy-economy-environment system is improved. And better decision support is provided for later regional development policy making.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of regional energy economy environment network coupling development, and in particular relates to a regional energy economy environment network coupling development evaluation system and method. Background Art

[0002] The regional energy-economy-environment network itself is a complex system that involves all aspects of human production and life. Previous regional sustainable development assessment work used historical statistical data for analysis, which has limited guiding significance for later regional development. Therefore, it is particularly important to carry out energy development and environmental governance based on effective and reasonable economic growth expectations, which allows us to look back at the evolution of the complex system of the regional energy-economy-environment network from a future perspective.

[0003] Regarding energy consumption, economic development and environmental governance, there are a large number of organizations or experts engaged in related research. In the economic field, many scholars in my country have also carried out analytical research on economic growth forecasting and its decoupling from carbon emissions. However, few scholars have evaluated from the perspective of the development of the above energy, economic and environmental systems. At this time, a new method is urgently needed for dynamic analysis and timely assessment of the development status of the energy-economy-environment network. Summary of the invention

[0004] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to overcome the existing defects and provide a regional energy economy environment network coupling development evaluation system and method to solve the problems raised in the above background technology.

[0005] To achieve the above purpose, the present invention provides the following technical solution: a regional energy economy environment network coupling development evaluation system, comprising the following modules:

[0006] (1) Statistical data set module; including energy consumption data module, pollution emission data module and economic statistical data module;

[0007] (2) Forecast data set module; including energy consumption forecast module, pollution emission forecast module, and economic forecast data module;

[0008] (3) Network panel data module; including energy consumption data module, pollution emission data module, and economic statistics data module;

[0009] (4) Network analysis module: including indicator weighting module, dynamic modeling module, and system coordination analysis module;

[0010] (5) Policy analysis and optimization module; including regional policy analysis module and industry policy analysis module;

[0011] (5.1) Regional policy analysis module; including energy policy module, economic policy module, and environmental policy module;

[0012] (5.2) Industry policy analysis module; including energy policy module, economic policy module and environmental policy module.

[0013] An evaluation method for a regional energy economy environment network coupling development evaluation system comprises the following steps:

[0014] Step 1: Use the statistical yearbooks of each administrative unit in the designated area to organize the energy data, economic data, and pollutants of previous years to form panel data for analysis;

[0015] Step 2: Collect and analyze energy data and pollutant data from various authoritative institutions to determine whether the data has a good supporting role in analyzing 2030, 2050 and 2060; at the same time, based on the laws of regional economic development, build a forecast model for GDP and the three major industries, and compare it with the data of relevant institutions to effectively predict the future trend of regional economic development;

[0016] Step 3: Build an energy, economic and environmental network system, and conduct characteristic analysis through an improved coupled development model to conduct dynamic analysis and forecasting of regional development;

[0017] Step 4: Dynamically adjust the energy, economic and environmental governance policies based on their differences and subsequent development, thereby promoting continuous improvement in regional development.

[0018] Preferably, the energy data in step one includes coal, oil and natural gas.

[0019] Preferably, the economic data in step one includes GDP of various industries.

[0020] Preferably, the pollutants in step 1 include sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and TSP.

[0021] Preferably, the step one has a good supporting effect on determining the development of the current regional energy-economy-environment system.

[0022] Preferably, the step 2 provides better decision-making support for the future development trend of the energy-economy-environment system.

[0023] Compared with the prior art, the present invention provides a regional energy-economy-environment network coupling development assessment system and method, which has the following beneficial effects: the present invention can effectively and quantitatively carry out the development assessment work of the energy-economy-environment system, form an iterative optimization model, and provide better decision-making support for the subsequent regional development policy formulation. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0024] The accompanying drawings are used to provide a further understanding of the present invention and constitute a part of the specification. Together with the embodiments of the present invention, they are used to explain the present invention and do not constitute a limitation of the present invention. In the accompanying drawings:

[0025] Figure 1 Schematic diagram of the process proposed by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0026] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0027] See also Figure 1 The present invention provides a technical solution: a regional energy economy environment network coupling development evaluation system, comprising the following modules:

[0028] (1) Statistical data set module; including energy consumption data module, pollution emission data module and economic statistical data module;

[0029] (2) Forecast data set module; including energy consumption forecast module, pollution emission forecast module, and economic forecast data module;

[0030] (3) Network panel data module; including energy consumption data module, pollution emission data module, and economic statistics data module;

[0031] (4) Network analysis module: including indicator weighting module, dynamic modeling module, and system coordination analysis module;

[0032] (5) Policy analysis and optimization module; including regional policy analysis module and industry policy analysis module;

[0033] (5.1) Regional policy analysis module; including energy policy module, economic policy module, and environmental policy module;

[0034] (5.2) Industry policy analysis module; including energy policy module, economic policy module and environmental policy module.

[0035] An evaluation method for a regional energy economy environment network coupling development evaluation system comprises the following steps:

[0036] Step 1: Use the statistical yearbooks of each administrative unit in the designated area to organize the energy data, economic data, and pollutants of previous years to form panel data for analysis;

[0037] Step 2: Collect and analyze energy data and pollutant data from various authoritative institutions to determine whether the data has a good supporting role in analyzing 2030, 2050 and 2060; at the same time, based on the laws of regional economic development, build a forecast model for GDP and the three major industries, and compare it with the data of relevant institutions to effectively predict the future trend of regional economic development;

[0038] Step 3: Build an energy, economic and environmental network system, and conduct characteristic analysis through an improved coupled development model to conduct dynamic analysis and forecasting of regional development;

[0039] Step 4: Dynamically adjust the energy, economic and environmental governance policies based on their differences and subsequent development, thereby promoting continuous improvement in regional development.

[0040] In the present invention, preferably, the energy data in step 1 includes coal, oil and natural gas.

[0041] In the present invention, preferably, the economic data in step 1 includes GDP of various industries.

[0042] In the present invention, preferably, the pollutants in step 1 include sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and TSP.

[0043] In the present invention, preferably, step one has a good supporting effect on determining the development of the current regional energy-economy-environment system.

[0044] In the present invention, preferably, the step 2 provides better decision support for the future development trend of the energy-economy-environment system.

[0045] Embodiment 1

[0046] 1. Statistical data set: mainly including energy data (coal, oil, natural gas, etc.), economic data (GDP of various industries), and pollutants (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, TSP, etc.) from the statistical yearbooks of various administrative units in the region; the above data can be used for the historical evolution analysis of the energy-economy-environment network.

[0047] 2. Forecast data set: mainly includes energy consumption data from the Global Energy Interconnection Development Cooperation Organization's China Clean Energy Base Development Research, my country's energy development prospects for 2030, 2050 and 2060; China's future carbon neutral scenario air pollutant emission data set (2017-2060 year by year) developed by Wang Can and others from the School of Environment at Tsinghua University; GDP and economic data of the three industries predicted by deep learning technology. Among them, data governance mainly includes the allocation of regional energy consumption data over the years to the national proportion, and the integration of industry data related to pollutant emissions in various provinces and cities.

[0048] 3. Panel data and network analysis: The collected energy data, economic data and environmental data are sorted out to form energy, economic and environmental panel data for each year in the region. The entropy weight method, coupling model and improved system coupling method are used to perform indicator weighting, dynamic modeling and system analysis.

[0049] 4. Policy analysis and optimization: Based on the differences in industry policies among various administrative units in the region, we conduct system coupling analysis and make policy adjustments based on their changing conditions to further promote energy, economic and environmental development in various parts of the region.

[0050] Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that various changes, modifications, substitutions and variations may be made to the embodiments without departing from the principles and spirit of the present invention, and that the scope of the present invention is defined by the appended claims and their equivalents.

Claims

1. A regional energy economy environment network coupling development assessment system, characterized in that: Includes the following modules: (1) Statistical data set module; including energy consumption data module, pollution emission data module and economic statistical data module; (2) Forecast data set module; including energy consumption forecast module, pollution emission forecast module, and economic forecast data module; (3) Network panel data module; including energy consumption data module, pollution emission data module, and economic statistics data module; (4) Network analysis module; It includes indicator weighting module, dynamic modeling module and system coordination analysis module; (5) Policy analysis and optimization module; Includes regional policy analysis module and industry policy analysis module; (5.1) Regional policy analysis module; including energy policy module, economic policy module, and environmental policy module; (5.2) Industry policy analysis module; including energy policy module, economic policy module and environmental policy module.

2. The evaluation method of a regional energy economy environment network coupling development evaluation system according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step 1: Use the statistical yearbooks of each administrative unit in the designated area to organize the energy data, economic data, and pollutants of previous years to form panel data for analysis; Step 2: Collect and analyze energy data and pollutant data from various authoritative institutions to determine whether the data has a good supporting role in analyzing 2030, 2050 and 2060; at the same time, based on the laws of regional economic development, build a forecast model for GDP and the three major industries, and compare it with the data of relevant institutions to effectively predict the future trend of regional economic development; Step 3: Build an energy, economic and environmental network system, and conduct characteristic analysis through an improved coupled development model to conduct dynamic analysis and forecasting of regional development; Step 4: Dynamically adjust the energy, economic and environmental governance policies based on their differences and subsequent development, thereby promoting continuous improvement in regional development.

3. The evaluation method of a regional energy economy environment network coupling development evaluation system according to claim 2 is characterized by: The energy data in step 1 includes coal, oil and natural gas.

4. The evaluation method of a regional energy economy environment network coupling development evaluation system according to claim 2 is characterized by: The economic data in step 1 include GDP of various industries.

5. The evaluation method of a regional energy economy environment network coupling development evaluation system according to claim 2 is characterized by: The pollutants in step 1 include sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and TSP.

6. The evaluation method of a regional energy economy environment network coupling development evaluation system according to claim 2 is characterized by: The step one has a good supporting role in determining the development of the current regional energy-economy-environment system.

7. The evaluation method of a regional energy economy environment network coupling development evaluation system according to claim 2 is characterized by: The step 2 provides better decision-making support for the future development of the energy-economy-environment system.

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