Method for analyzing influence of market element change on power transmission and transformation project cost

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for analyzing the influence of market element changes on power transmission and transformation project cost. The method comprises the following steps: collecting market element data and power transmission and transformation project cost element data; constructing a direct influence matrix based on the market element data and the power transmission and transformation project cost element data; constructing a comprehensive influence matrix based on the direct influence matrix to obtain the influence degree, the influenced degree, the centrality and the reason degree of the market elements and the power transmission project cost elements; and respectively analyzing the relationship between the centrality and the reason degree and the relationship between the influence degree and the influenced degree in a drawing mode.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to a method for analyzing the influence of changes in market factors on the cost of power transmission and transformation projects, and belongs to the technical field of power engineering. Background Art

[0002] In the field of power transmission and transformation project cost management, changes in market factors (such as material prices, labor costs, equipment costs, etc.) have a crucial impact on project costs. However, due to the uncertainty and complexity of market fluctuations, existing technologies have the following deficiencies in comprehensively evaluating and analyzing the impact of market factors on power transmission and transformation project costs:

[0003] Existing technologies usually analyze the impact of market factors through a single dimension (such as price fluctuations or historical trends), which makes it difficult to reveal the interactions between multiple factors;

[0004] The influencing relationship between market factors and cost factors is mainly described qualitatively, lacking systematic quantitative analysis tools, making it difficult to provide an accurate basis for project cost management;

[0005] As market factors change dynamically, traditional analysis methods are difficult to update and capture the impact of market factors on project costs in real time, causing the analysis results to lag behind the actual situation.

[0006] The current analysis methods for market and cost factors are mostly independent analyses, and a unified analysis framework has not been formed, which cannot intuitively reflect the comprehensive influence relationship between various factors. Summary of the invention

[0007] In order to solve the above problems existing in the prior art, the present invention proposes a method for analyzing the impact of changes in market factors on the cost of power transmission and transformation projects.

[0008] The technical solution of the present invention is as follows:

[0009] On the one hand, the present invention provides a method for analyzing the impact of changes in market factors on the cost of power transmission and transformation projects, comprising the following steps:

[0010] Collect market factor data and power transmission and transformation project cost factor data;

[0011] Construct a direct impact matrix based on market factor data and transmission and transformation project cost factor data;

[0012] Based on the direct impact matrix, a comprehensive impact matrix is ​​constructed to obtain the influence, influence, centrality and cause degree of market elements and transmission project cost elements;

[0013] The relationship between centrality and causality, as well as between influence and influence, is analyzed by drawing.

[0014] As a preferred implementation mode of the present invention, the market factor data include labor unit price, machinery unit price, material unit price, land price, consumer price index, producer price index, purchasing managers index and gross domestic product.

[0015] As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the power transmission and transformation project cost element data includes construction project costs, installation project costs, equipment purchase costs and main body costs.

[0016] As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the Delphi method is used to consult several experts in related fields to evaluate the influence relationship coefficients between various market factors and various power transmission and transformation project cost factors, and a direct influence matrix is ​​constructed.

[0017] As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the steps of constructing the comprehensive impact matrix are:

[0018] The direct influence matrix O is normalized to obtain the normalized direct influence matrix N, which is shown in the following formula:

[0019]

[0020] Among them: j Indicates the jth sample in the direct impact matrix;

[0021] The comprehensive impact matrix T is constructed based on the normalized direct impact matrix N, as shown in the following formula:

[0022] T=N(IN)-1

[0023] Where: I represents the identity matrix.

[0024] As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the influence degree refers to the sum of the values ​​of each row in the comprehensive influence matrix T, which represents the influence of each row element on all other elements, as shown in the following formula:

[0025]

[0026] Where: n represents the total number of rows / columns; t ij Represents the data value of the i-th row and j-th column in the comprehensive influence matrix T;

[0027] The influence degree refers to the sum of the values ​​of each column in the comprehensive influence matrix T, which represents the influence of each column element on all other elements, as shown in the following formula:

[0028]

[0029] Where: t ji Represents the data value of the jth row and ith column in the comprehensive influence matrix T;

[0030] The centrality M i =D i +C i , the cause degree M i =D i -C i .

[0031] As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the drawing steps of the centrality and the causal degree are as follows:

[0032] The horizontal axis is the centrality, and the vertical axis is the causal degree. The horizontal axis is set at the causal degree value of 0, and the vertical axis is set at the average value of the centrality value. Each element is marked in the figure according to the centrality value and the causal degree value. The first quadrant in the figure indicates that the element is highly important and is a causal element; the second quadrant indicates that the element is of low importance and is a causal element; the third quadrant indicates that the element is of low importance and is a result element; the fourth quadrant indicates that the element is of high importance and is a result factor.

[0033] As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the steps of drawing the influence degree and the influenced degree are as follows:

[0034] The horizontal axis is the influence, and the vertical axis is the influence. The horizontal axis is set at the average value of the influence value, and the vertical axis is set at the average value of the influence value. The influence and influence of each factor are marked in the figure. The first quadrant in the figure indicates that the factor has a high influence and a high influence, the second quadrant indicates that the factor has a low influence and a high influence, the third quadrant indicates that the factor has a low influence and a low influence, and the fourth quadrant indicates that the factor has a high influence and a low influence.

[0035] On the other hand, the present invention further provides an electronic device, comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein when the processor executes the program, the method described in any embodiment of the present invention is implemented.

[0036] In yet another aspect, the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements the method described in any embodiment of the present invention.

[0037] The present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0038] 1. The present invention reveals the complex interactive relationship between market factors and cost factors by constructing a direct impact matrix and a comprehensive impact matrix, which helps to more comprehensively understand the impact degree and action mechanism of each factor. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0039] Figure 1 The figure is a flow chart of the method of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0040] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0041] It should be understood that the step numbers used in this document are only for convenience of description and are not intended to limit the order in which the steps are executed.

[0042] It should be understood that the terms used in the present specification are only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit the present invention. As used in the present specification and the appended claims, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, the singular forms "a", "an" and "the" are intended to include plural forms.

[0043] The terms “include” and “comprising” indicate the presence of described features, integers, steps, operations, elements and / or components, but do not exclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components and / or combinations thereof.

[0044] The term "and / or" means and includes any and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items.

[0045] Embodiment 1:

[0046] See also Figure 1 , a method for analyzing the impact of changes in market factors on the cost of power transmission and transformation projects, comprising the following steps:

[0047] Collect market factor data and power transmission and transformation project cost factor data;

[0048] Construct a direct impact matrix based on market factor data and transmission and transformation project cost factor data;

[0049] Based on the direct impact matrix, a comprehensive impact matrix is ​​constructed to obtain the influence, influence, centrality and cause degree of market elements and transmission project cost elements;

[0050] The relationship between centrality and causality, as well as between influence and influence, is analyzed by drawing.

[0051] As a preferred implementation of this embodiment, the market factor data include labor unit price, machinery unit price, material unit price, land price, consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), purchasing managers index (PMI) and gross domestic product (GDP).

[0052] As a preferred implementation of this embodiment, the power transmission and transformation project cost element data includes construction project costs, installation project costs, equipment purchase costs and main body costs.

[0053] As a preferred implementation of this embodiment, the Delphi method is used to consult several experts in related fields to evaluate the influence relationship coefficients between various market factors and various power transmission and transformation project cost factors, and a direct influence matrix is ​​constructed. The influence relationship coefficients are specifically shown in the following table:

[0054] Semantic variables No impact Small impact General Impact Strong influence Strong influence Five-level scale 0 1 2 3 4

[0055] As a preferred implementation of this embodiment, the steps of constructing the comprehensive impact matrix are:

[0056] In this embodiment, taking the power transmission project as an example, its elements mainly include the main cost and other costs, and the direct impact matrix is ​​specifically shown in the following table:

[0057]

[0058]

[0059] The direct influence matrix O is normalized to obtain the normalized direct influence matrix N, which is shown in the following formula:

[0060]

[0061] Among them: j Indicates the jth sample in the direct impact matrix;

[0062] In this embodiment, the normalized matrix is ​​specifically shown in the following table:

[0063]

[0064] The comprehensive impact matrix T is constructed based on the normalized direct impact matrix N, as shown in the following formula:

[0065] T=N(IN)-1

[0066] Where: I represents the identity matrix;

[0067] In this embodiment, the comprehensive impact matrix is ​​specifically shown in the following table:

[0068]

[0069]

[0070] As a preferred implementation of this embodiment, the influence degree refers to the sum of the values ​​of each row in the comprehensive influence matrix T, which represents the influence of each row element on all other elements, as shown in the following formula:

[0071]

[0072] Where: n represents the total number of rows / columns; t ij Represents the data value of the i-th row and j-th column in the comprehensive influence matrix T;

[0073] The influence degree refers to the sum of the values ​​of each column in the comprehensive influence matrix T, which represents the influence of each column element on all other elements, as shown in the following formula:

[0074]

[0075] Where: t ji Represents the data value of the jth row and ith column in the comprehensive influence matrix T;

[0076] The centrality M i =D i +C i , the cause degree M i =D i -C i , the following table is constructed based on the influence, influence, centrality and cause of each factor:

[0077]

[0078]

[0079] As a preferred implementation of this embodiment, the steps of drawing the centrality and the causal degree are:

[0080] The horizontal axis is the centrality, and the vertical axis is the causal degree. The horizontal axis is set at the causal degree value of 0, and the vertical axis is set at the average value of the centrality value. Each element is marked in the figure according to the centrality value and the causal degree value. The first quadrant in the figure indicates that the element is highly important and is a causal element; the second quadrant indicates that the element is of low importance and is a causal element; the third quadrant indicates that the element is of low importance and is a result element; the fourth quadrant indicates that the element is of high importance and is a result factor.

[0081] As a preferred implementation of this embodiment, the steps of drawing the influence degree and the influenced degree are as follows:

[0082] The horizontal axis is the influence, and the vertical axis is the influence. The horizontal axis is set at the average value of the influence value, and the vertical axis is set at the average value of the influence value. The influence and influence of each factor are marked in the figure. The first quadrant in the figure indicates that the factor has a high influence and a high influence, the second quadrant indicates that the factor has a low influence and a high influence, the third quadrant indicates that the factor has a low influence and a low influence, and the fourth quadrant indicates that the factor has a high influence and a low influence.

[0083] Embodiment 2:

[0084] This embodiment provides an electronic device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the method described in any embodiment of the present invention when executing the program.

[0085] Embodiment three:

[0086] This embodiment provides a computer-readable storage medium on which a computer program is stored. When the program is executed by a processor, the method described in any embodiment of the present invention is implemented.

[0087] In the embodiments of the present application, "at least one" refers to one or more, and "more than one" refers to two or more. "And / or" describes the association relationship of associated objects, indicating that three relationships may exist. For example, A and / or B can represent the existence of A alone, the existence of A and B at the same time, and the existence of B alone. Among them, A and B can be singular or plural. The character " / " generally indicates that the previous and next associated objects are in an "or" relationship. "At least one of the following" and similar expressions refer to any combination of these items, including any combination of single or plural items. For example, at least one of a, b and c can be represented by: a, b, c, a and b, a and c, b and c, or a and b and c, where a, b, c can be single or multiple.

[0088] Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the various units and algorithm steps described in the embodiments disclosed herein can be implemented in a combination of electronic hardware, computer software, and electronic hardware. Whether these functions are performed in hardware or software depends on the specific application and design constraints of the technical solution. Professional and technical personnel can use different methods to implement the described functions for each specific application, but such implementation should not be considered to be beyond the scope of this application.

[0089] Those skilled in the art can clearly understand that, for the convenience and brevity of description, the specific working processes of the systems, devices and units described above can refer to the corresponding processes in the aforementioned method embodiments and will not be repeated here.

[0090] In several embodiments provided in the present application, if any function is implemented in the form of a software functional unit and sold or used as an independent product, it can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present application, or the part that contributes to the prior art or the part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a storage medium and includes several instructions for a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform all or part of the steps of the method described in each embodiment of the present application. The aforementioned storage medium includes: U disk, mobile hard disk, read-only memory (Read-Only Memory; hereinafter referred to as: ROM), random access memory (Random Access Memory; hereinafter referred to as: RAM), disk or optical disk, and other media that can store program codes.

[0091] The above descriptions are merely embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the patent scope of the present invention. Any equivalent structure or equivalent process transformation made using the contents of the present invention specification and drawings, or directly or indirectly applied in other related technical fields, are also included in the patent protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing the impact of changes in market factors on the cost of power transmission and transformation projects, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Collect market factor data and power transmission and transformation project cost factor data; Construct a direct impact matrix based on market factor data and transmission and transformation project cost factor data; Based on the direct impact matrix, a comprehensive impact matrix is ​​constructed to obtain the influence, influence, centrality and cause degree of market elements and transmission project cost elements; The relationship between centrality and causality, as well as between influence and influence, is analyzed by drawing.

2. The method for analyzing the impact of changes in market factors on the cost of power transmission and transformation projects according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The market factor data include labor unit price, machinery unit price, material unit price, land price, consumer price index, producer price index, purchasing managers index and gross domestic product.

3. The method for analyzing the impact of changes in market factors on the cost of power transmission and transformation projects according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The cost element data of the power transmission and transformation project include construction project costs, installation project costs, equipment purchase costs and main body costs.

4. The method for analyzing the impact of changes in market factors on the cost of power transmission and transformation projects according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Through the Delphi method, several experts in related fields were consulted to evaluate the influence relationship coefficients between various market factors and various power transmission and transformation project cost factors, and a direct influence matrix was constructed.

5. The method for analyzing the impact of changes in market factors on the cost of power transmission and transformation projects according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The steps for constructing the comprehensive impact matrix are: The direct influence matrix O is normalized to obtain the normalized direct influence matrix N, which is shown in the following formula: Among them: j Indicates the jth sample in the direct impact matrix; The comprehensive impact matrix T is constructed based on the normalized direct impact matrix N, as shown in the following formula: T=N(I-N) -1 Where: I represents the identity matrix.

6. The method for analyzing the impact of changes in market factors on the cost of power transmission and transformation projects according to claim 5, characterized in that: The influence degree refers to the sum of the values ​​of each row in the comprehensive influence matrix T, which represents the influence of each row element on all other elements, as shown in the following formula: Where: n represents the total number of rows / columns; t ij Represents the data value of the i-th row and j-th column in the comprehensive influence matrix T; The influence degree refers to the sum of the values ​​of each column in the comprehensive influence matrix T, which represents the influence of each column element on all other elements, as shown in the following formula: Where: t ji Represents the data value of the jth row and ith column in the comprehensive influence matrix T; The centrality M i =D i +C i , the cause degree M i =D i -C i .

7. The method for analyzing the impact of changes in market factors on the cost of power transmission and transformation projects according to claim 6 is characterized in that: The steps for drawing centrality and causality are: The horizontal axis is the centrality, and the vertical axis is the causal degree. The horizontal axis is set at the causal degree value of 0, and the vertical axis is set at the average value of the centrality value. Each element is marked in the figure according to the centrality value and the causal degree value. The first quadrant in the figure indicates that the element is highly important and is a causal element; the second quadrant indicates that the element is of low importance and is a causal element; the third quadrant indicates that the element is of low importance and is a result element; the fourth quadrant indicates that the element is of high importance and is a result factor.

8. The method for analyzing the impact of changes in market factors on the cost of power transmission and transformation projects according to claim 7 is characterized in that: The steps for drawing the influence and the influence are as follows: The horizontal axis is the influence, and the vertical axis is the influence. The horizontal axis is set at the average value of the influence value, and the vertical axis is set at the average value of the influence value. The influence and influence of each factor are marked in the figure. The first quadrant in the figure indicates that the factor has a high influence and a high influence, the second quadrant indicates that the factor has a low influence and a high influence, the third quadrant indicates that the factor has a low influence and a low influence, and the fourth quadrant indicates that the factor has a high influence and a low influence.

9. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that: When the processor executes the program, the method according to any one of claims 1 to 8 is implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the program is executed by a processor, the method according to any one of claims 1 to 8 is implemented.

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