Risk analysis method and device for connection of urban two-level drainage standards and medium

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of municipal inland inundation prevention and control and water conservancy flood control and drainage, in particular to a risk analysis method and device for urban two-level drainage standard connection and a medium. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring rainfall samples of water conservancy drainage and municipal drainage in a planned area, and constructing edge distribution by adopting P-III type distribution; based on edge distribution, a Copula function is adopted to construct a joint probability distribution function which takes water conservancy drainage as a main part and corresponds to municipal drainage and takes municipal drainage as a main part and corresponds to water conservancy drainage; based on a joint probability distribution function, calculating a first type of connection risk that the water conservancy drainage duration rainstorm does not exceed the standard and the municipal drainage duration rainstorm exceeds the standard and a second type of connection risk that the municipal drainage duration rainstorm does not exceed the standard and the water conservancy drainage duration rainstorm exceeds the standard; and determining a risk planning measure based on the magnitude relationship of the two types of connection risks. The problem that in the prior art, standard connection of water conservancy drainage and municipal drainage is not considered, and the design standard is improved only from one aspect, so that planning is unreasonable is solved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of municipal waterlogging prevention and control and water conservancy flood control and drainage technology, and in particular to a risk analysis method, device and medium for connecting urban two-level drainage standards. Background Art

[0002] At present, for river network areas, flood control usually adopts a two-level drainage method, which consists of water conservancy drainage and municipal drainage. The municipal aspect is mainly responsible for the drainage of rainwater in urban communities, streets and other areas, while water conservancy drainage involves the drainage of rainwater collected in a larger catchment area. They are upstream and downstream relationships, which inevitably leads to the question of whether the drainage scales of these two parts are connected. If they are not connected, two types of risks may arise: municipal drainage cannot timely remove rainstorm water within the water conservancy drainage standard, and water conservancy drainage cannot effectively store or timely discharge rainstorm water within the municipal drainage standard. The mechanism for the existence of two types of connection risks is that there are objectively two types of rainstorm processes: for high-intensity short-duration heavy rain, the municipal drainage duration exceeds the standard when the water conservancy drainage duration does not exceed the standard; for low-intensity long-duration heavy rain, the water conservancy drainage duration exceeds the standard when the municipal drainage duration does not exceed the standard.

[0003] At present, there is no unified method and relevant specifications for the connection between water conservancy drainage and municipal drainage standards. Generally, the focus is on improving the design standards of rainwater pipes, increasing the intensity of urban drainage planning, and increasing the storage capacity of urban internal water systems in the planning stage to speed up the discharge of rainwater. However, water conservancy drainage and municipal drainage are interrelated, and the problem cannot be solved unilaterally. The drainage of rainwater is collected through pipes and then merged into rivers. The primary task is to meet the municipal drainage standards so that rainwater on roads such as communities and streets can be discharged into pipes in a timely manner. However, if the municipal drainage standards are blindly improved, the river may not be able to withstand the collected rainwater; if only the water conservancy drainage standards are improved, it cannot be guaranteed that rainwater on the road will be discharged into pipes, resulting in flooding in urban areas. The excessive scale of water conservancy projects also makes the economy unreasonable. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of this, the present invention provides a risk analysis method, device and medium for connecting the two-level drainage standards in a city, so as to solve the problem of lack of standard connection between water conservancy drainage and municipal drainage in the prior art.

[0005] In the first aspect, the present invention provides a risk analysis method for the connection of two-level drainage standards in a city, the method comprising: obtaining rainfall samples of water conservancy drainage and municipal drainage in the planning area and constructing an edge distribution using a P-III distribution; based on the edge distribution, constructing a joint probability distribution function with water conservancy drainage as the main component and municipal drainage as the corresponding component and with municipal drainage as the main component and water conservancy drainage as the corresponding component using a Copula function; calculating a first type of connection risk in which the duration of water conservancy drainage does not exceed the standard during heavy rain while the duration of municipal drainage exceeds the standard during heavy rain and a second type of connection risk in which the duration of municipal drainage does not exceed the standard during heavy rain while the duration of water conservancy drainage exceeds the standard during heavy rain based on the joint probability distribution function; and determining risk planning measures based on the size relationship between the first type of connection risk and the second type of connection risk.

[0006] In the present invention, the joint distribution probability and combined risk rate of water conservancy drainage and municipal drainage are calculated based on the Copula function analysis in the planning stage, and planning measures and suggestions are proposed for water conservancy flood control and drainage standards and municipal drainage standards. This solves the problem that the existing technology does not consider the standard connection between water conservancy drainage and municipal drainage, and only improves the design standards unilaterally, resulting in unreasonable planning.

[0007] In an optional embodiment, risk planning measures are determined based on the size relationship between the first type of connection risk and the second type of connection risk, including: when the first type of connection risk is greater than the second type of connection risk, improving the municipal drainage standard; when the first type of connection risk is less than the second type of connection risk, improving the water conservancy drainage capacity.

[0008] In the present invention, according to the size of the first type of connection risk and the second type of connection risk, the urban waterlogging prevention and control is carried out by improving the municipal drainage standard or improving the water conservancy drainage capacity, thereby achieving targeted control of waterlogging.

[0009] In an optional embodiment, improving municipal drainage standards includes: determining engineering measures and management measures for improving municipal drainage standards based on the municipal drainage system and land use conditions; and / or improving water conservancy drainage capacity includes: determining engineering measures and management measures for improving water conservancy drainage capacity based on water conservancy drainage methods and land use conditions.

[0010] In the present invention, when improving the municipal drainage standard or improving the water conservancy drainage capacity, corresponding engineering measures and management measures are determined according to relevant drainage methods or land use conditions, thereby ensuring the reliability of the implementation of the measures.

[0011] In an optional implementation, engineering measures to improve municipal drainage standards are determined based on the municipal drainage system and land use conditions, including:

[0012] When the municipal drainage system is diversion and the land use condition is land available, the engineering measures include one or more of the following: new rainwater wetlands, wet ponds, rainwater gardens, green roofs, permeable pavements, sunken green spaces, infiltration ponds, grass-planted ditches, high-water high-drainage, low-water low-drainage, water diversion, changing the rainwater self-drainage system to forced drainage or adjusting the service scope of existing pumping stations, building storage facilities, building connecting pipes between rainwater pipes, and improving rainwater outlets;

[0013] When the municipal drainage system is diversion and the land use condition is no land, the engineering measures include one or more of the following: setting up water storage tanks, rainwater tanks, green roofs, permeable pavement, bioretention facilities, infiltration wells, infiltration channels, high water high drainage, low water low drainage, water diversion, changing the rainwater self-drainage system to forced drainage, adjusting the service scope of existing pumping stations, building connecting pipes between rainwater pipes, and improving rainwater outlets;

[0014] When the municipal drainage system is combined and the land use condition is land, the engineering measures include one or more of the following: setting up green roofs, permeable pavement, sunken green space, infiltration ponds, grass-planted ditches, high water high drainage, low water low drainage, changing the rainwater self-drainage system to forced drainage, adjusting the service scope of existing pumping stations, building storage facilities, and improving rainwater inlets;

[0015] When the municipal drainage system is combined and the land use condition is no land, the engineering measures shall include one or more of the following: setting up reservoirs, rainwater tanks, green roofs, permeable pavement, bioretention facilities, infiltration wells, infiltration channels, high-water high drainage, low-water low drainage, water diversion, changing the rainwater self-drainage system to forced drainage, adjusting the service scope of existing pumping stations, building connecting pipes between rainwater pipes, and improving rainwater outlets.

[0016] In an optional embodiment, management measures for improving municipal drainage standards are determined based on the municipal drainage system and land use conditions, including: when the municipal drainage system is diversion and the land use conditions are with land or without land, management measures are determined to include one or more of pipeline network detection, pipeline network assessment, pipeline network repair, pipeline network improvement and pipeline network dredging; when the municipal drainage system is confluence and the land use conditions are with land or without land, management measures are determined to include one or more of pipeline network detection, pipeline assessment, pipeline network repair, pipeline network improvement, pipeline dredging and rainwater and sewage mixed connection transformation.

[0017] In an optional implementation manner, engineering measures to improve water conservancy and flood control capacity are determined based on water conservancy and flood control methods and land use conditions, including:

[0018] When the water conservancy drainage method is self-drainage and the land use condition is that there is land, the engineering measures include one or more of river channel construction, river and lake water surface ratio and river network density control, pump and sluice construction, water level control, improving the drainage standards of inland river systems, high water high drainage, low water low drainage, water diversion, and changing the rainwater self-drainage system to forced drainage;

[0019] When the water conservancy drainage method is self-drainage and the land use condition is no land, the engineering measures include one or more of the following: adjustment of pump and sluice scheduling plan, water level control, high-water high-drainage, low-water low-drainage, water diversion, and changing the rainwater self-drainage system to forced drainage;

[0020] When the water conservancy drainage method is forced drainage and the land use condition is that there is land, the engineering measures include river channel construction, river and lake water surface ratio and river network density control, pump and sluice construction, water level control; improving the drainage standards of inland river systems, adjusting the service scope of existing pump stations, and improving the stormwater inlets;

[0021] When the water conservancy drainage method is forced drainage and the land use condition is that there is no land, the engineering measures are determined to include one or more of adjusting the service range of the existing pump station and improving the stormwater inlet.

[0022] In an optional implementation, the management measures for improving the water conservancy drainage capacity include: one or more of river water level monitoring, regular river dredging and optimization of operation management.

[0023] In the present invention, a variety of engineering measures and a variety of management measures are proposed for improving the municipal drainage standard and improving the water conservancy drainage capacity. Through the implementation of a variety of measures, the municipal drainage standard or the water conservancy drainage capacity can be significantly improved; at the same time, appropriate engineering measures or management measures can be selected according to local conditions, thereby improving the applicability of the risk analysis method.

[0024] In a second aspect, the present invention provides a risk analysis device for the connection of two-level drainage standards in a city, the device comprising: a data acquisition module, used to obtain rainfall samples of water conservancy drainage and municipal drainage in a planned area and construct an edge distribution using a P-III distribution; a function construction module, used to construct, based on the edge distribution, a joint probability distribution function of water conservancy drainage as the main component and municipal drainage as the corresponding component and of municipal drainage as the main component and water conservancy drainage as the corresponding component using a Copula function; a risk calculation module, used to calculate, based on the joint probability distribution function, a first type of connection risk in which the duration of water conservancy drainage does not exceed the standard while the duration of municipal drainage does exceed the standard during heavy rain, and a second type of connection risk in which the duration of municipal drainage does not exceed the standard while the duration of water conservancy drainage does exceed the standard during heavy rain; a measure determination module, used to determine risk planning measures based on the size relationship between the first type of connection risk and the second type of connection risk.

[0025] In a third aspect, the present invention provides a computer device comprising: a memory and a processor, the memory and the processor being communicatively connected to each other, the memory storing computer instructions, and the processor executing the risk analysis method for connecting the two-level urban drainage standards according to the first aspect or any corresponding embodiment thereof by executing the computer instructions.

[0026] In a fourth aspect, the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium having computer instructions stored thereon, the computer instructions being used to enable a computer to execute the risk analysis method for connecting the two-level urban drainage standards according to the first aspect or any corresponding embodiment thereof.

[0027] In a fifth aspect, the present invention provides a computer program product, including computer instructions, which are used to enable a computer to execute the risk analysis method for connecting the two-level urban drainage standards in the above-mentioned first aspect or any corresponding embodiment. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0028] In order to more clearly illustrate the specific implementation methods of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the specific implementation methods or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are some implementation methods of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0029] Figure 1 is a flow chart of a risk analysis method for linking urban two-level drainage standards according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0030] Figure 2 is a structural block diagram of a risk analysis device for connecting urban two-level drainage standards according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0031] Figure 3 It is a schematic diagram of the hardware structure of a computer device according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0032] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solution in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0033] According to an embodiment of the present invention, an embodiment of a risk analysis method for connecting two-level drainage standards in a city is provided. It should be noted that the steps shown in the flowchart of the accompanying drawings can be executed in a computer system such as a set of computer executable instructions, and although a logical order is shown in the flowchart, in some cases, the steps shown or described can be executed in an order different from that shown here.

[0034] In this embodiment, a risk analysis method for connecting urban two-level drainage standards is provided, which can be used in electronic devices such as computers, mobile phones, tablet computers, etc. Figure 1 is a flow chart of a risk analysis method for linking urban two-level drainage standards according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 1 As shown, the process includes the following steps:

[0035] Step S101, obtain rainfall samples of water conservancy drainage and municipal drainage in the planning area and construct the edge distribution using the P-III type distribution. Specifically, the risk analysis method is mainly used in the planning stage to propose relevant measures for urban waterlogging based on the calculation results of the connection risk of the two-level drainage standards in the city. Therefore, when using the risk analysis method, rainfall samples can be first obtained based on the rainfall data of the relevant city. Among them, when selecting samples, the annual maximum value method is usually used for rainstorm sampling in water conservancy flood control and drainage, and the annual maximum value method can also be used for municipal drainage based on the latest revised version of the outdoor drainage specification. At the same time, after experimental analysis, the P-III curve has a better distribution line fitting goodness as the annual maximum value method. Therefore, after the annual maximum value method is used for sampling, the P-III type distribution is used to construct the edge distribution. For example, in the planning stage, the P-III type distribution mode is used to select the edge distribution for the annual maximum 30min, 60min, 90min, and 120min rainstorm samples of municipal drainage and the annual maximum 24h rainstorm samples of water conservancy drainage within the planning scope.

[0036] Step S102, based on the marginal distribution, a Copula function is used to construct a joint probability distribution function of water conservancy drainage as the main component and municipal drainage as the corresponding component, and of municipal drainage as the main component and water conservancy drainage as the corresponding component.

[0037] Specifically, the Copula function used in this embodiment is a two-parameter Copula function, that is, there are two parameters in the function to describe the nature of the association, and the two parameters are used to represent the upper tail correlation and the consistency correlation or the lower tail correlation, respectively, so as to achieve the purpose of obtaining two association modes with one function. For the two-parameter Copula function, the Archimedean Copula function family and the ellipsoidal Copula function family can be used, wherein the Archimedean Copula function includes Gumbel Copula, Clayton Copula, Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH) Copula and Frank Copula. In this embodiment, the Gumbel Copula function is used to establish a joint distribution function for the positive correlation, and the AMH Copula function is used for the negative correlation.

[0038] When constructing the joint distribution, the joint distribution is constructed based on the combined observation samples of water conservancy drainage and corresponding municipal drainage and municipal drainage and water conservancy drainage.m The rainfall amount is X', and the joint distribution of the joint observation series is F c (Y, X'); Municipal drainage duration t m The main rainfall is X, and the corresponding water conservancy drainage duration is t c The rainfall amount is Y', and the joint distribution of the joint observation series is F m (X, Y'); Municipal drainage duration t m The amount of rainstorm X, the duration of water conservancy drainage t c The marginal distribution of the rainstorm amount Y is F X (X), F Y (Y); corresponding municipal drainage duration t m The amount of rainstorm X' and the corresponding water conservancy drainage duration t c The marginal distribution of the rainstorm amount Y' is F X' (X'), F Y' (Y'). There exists a unique Copula function C1(u, v), C2(u, v) such that:

[0039] F c (Y, X') = C1[F Y (Y), F X' (X')] Formula (1)

[0040] F m (X, Y') = C2[F X (X), F Y' (Y')] formula (2)

[0041] Step S103, based on the joint probability distribution function, calculate the first type of connection risk that the duration of water conservancy drainage does not exceed the heavy rain standard while the duration of municipal drainage exceeds the heavy rain standard, and the second type of connection risk that the duration of municipal drainage does not exceed the heavy rain standard while the duration of water conservancy drainage exceeds the heavy rain standard.

[0042] For the case where the duration of water conservancy drainage does not exceed the standard but the duration of municipal drainage exceeds the standard, it usually occurs in a high-intensity short-duration heavy rainstorm. Therefore, for a high-intensity short-duration heavy rainstorm, the first type of connection risk R1 for which the duration of water conservancy drainage does not exceed the standard but the duration of municipal drainage exceeds the standard can be calculated using the following formula:

[0043]

[0044] For municipal drainage with rainstorm duration not exceeding the standard but water conservancy drainage with rainstorm duration exceeding the standard, it usually occurs in long-duration heavy rainstorms with low intensity. Therefore, for long-duration heavy rainstorms with low intensity, the second type of connection risk R2, where municipal drainage with rainstorm duration not exceeding the standard but water conservancy drainage with rainstorm duration exceeding the standard, can be calculated using the following formula:

[0045]

[0046] Specifically, when calculating the connection risk based on the joint probability distribution function, the joint distribution probability can be calculated first based on the joint probability distribution function. For example, for the storm design standards of each duration of municipal drainage, the recurrence periods are taken as 50a, 20a, 10a, 5a, 3a, and 2a; for the 24-hour storm design standard of water conservancy waterlogging drainage, the recurrence periods are taken as 50a, 20a, 10a, and 5a. For any recurrence period combination of the 24-hour storm mainly for water conservancy waterlogging drainage and a certain duration storm of the corresponding municipal drainage, its joint distribution probability is obtained according to its marginal distribution probability and the above formula (1) joint probability distribution function, and then its first type of connection risk is calculated by formula (3); for any recurrence period combination of a certain duration storm mainly for municipal drainage and the 24-hour storm of the corresponding water conservancy waterlogging drainage, its joint distribution probability is obtained according to its marginal distribution probability and the above formula (2) joint probability distribution function, and then its second type of connection risk is calculated by formula (4).

[0047] Step S104, determine the risk planning measures based on the magnitude relationship between the first type of connection risk and the second type of connection risk. Specifically, after calculating the first type of connection risk and the second connection risk, the magnitude relationship between the two can be compared. For example, if it is calculated that R1 > R2, it means that the water conservancy waterlogging drainage standard is relatively high, while the municipal drainage capacity is insufficient, and the municipal drainage capacity needs to be improved accordingly; if it is calculated that R1 < R2, it means that the water conservancy waterlogging drainage standard is relatively low, and the water conservancy waterlogging drainage standard needs to be improved accordingly.

[0048] The risk analysis method for the connection of urban two-level drainage standards provided by the embodiments of the present invention analyzes and calculates the joint distribution probability and combined risk rate of the corresponding water conservancy waterlogging drainage mainly for municipal drainage and the corresponding municipal drainage mainly for water conservancy waterlogging drainage based on the Copula function in the planning stage, and accordingly proposes planning measures and suggestions for the water conservancy flood control and drainage standards and the municipal drainage standards. Thus, it solves the problem in the prior art that the connection of the water conservancy waterlogging drainage standard and the municipal drainage standard is not considered, and only unilaterally improving the design standard leads to unreasonable planning.

[0049] In this embodiment, a risk analysis method for the connection of urban two-level drainage standards is provided, and the method includes the following steps:

[0050] Step S201, obtain the rainfall samples of water conservancy waterlogging drainage and municipal drainage in the planning area and construct the marginal distribution by using the P-III type distribution; for details, please refer to Figure 1 Step S101 of the illustrated embodiment, which will not be elaborated here.

[0051] Step S202, based on the marginal distribution, use the Copula function to construct the joint probability distribution functions for mainly water conservancy waterlogging drainage with corresponding municipal drainage and mainly municipal drainage with corresponding water conservancy waterlogging drainage; for details, please refer to Figure 1Step S102 of the illustrated embodiment will not be described in detail here.

[0052] Step S203, based on the joint probability distribution function, calculate the first type of connection risk that the duration of water conservancy drainage does not exceed the heavy rain standard but the duration of municipal drainage exceeds the heavy rain standard, and the second type of connection risk that the duration of municipal drainage does not exceed the heavy rain standard but the duration of water conservancy drainage exceeds the heavy rain standard; for details, please refer to Figure 1 Step S103 of the illustrated embodiment will not be described in detail here.

[0053] Step S204, determining risk planning measures based on the magnitude relationship between the first-type connection risk and the second-type connection risk.

[0054] Specifically, the above step S204 includes:

[0055] Step S2041, when the first type of connection risk is greater than the second type of connection risk, improve the municipal drainage standard. Specifically, when R1>R2, the planning stage needs to propose solutions to improve the ability to cope with rainstorm waterlogging. For example, the municipal drainage design standard applicable to the planning area can be selected from the existing municipal drainage design standards. At the same time, appropriate measures can be selected to improve the municipal drainage standard according to local conditions, such as improving the drainage network, establishing urban waterlogging drainage channels and optimizing operation management, etc. In addition, water conservancy drainage measures can be used according to the actual waterlogging situation.

[0056] In an optional implementation, the above step S2041 includes:

[0057] Step a1: Determine engineering measures and management measures to improve municipal drainage standards based on the municipal drainage system and land use conditions.

[0058] Specifically, the engineering measures and management measures can be shown in Table 1 below:

[0059] Table 1

[0060]

[0061]

[0062] Among them, the diversion of municipal drainage refers to the method of using two sets of pipe systems to treat domestic sewage and rainwater during municipal drainage, while the confluence refers to the method of using one set of pipe systems to treat the two. When implementing various engineering measures taken under different systems and land use conditions, specific reference can be made to relevant technical implementations, which will not be repeated here. In addition, during actual implementation, one or more of these engineering measures can be selected for implementation based on the actual situation of the city.

[0063] For various management measures, among them, pipeline network detection refers to regularly or irregularly inspecting drainage pipelines to understand the operating status of the pipelines; pipeline assessment can be a comprehensive assessment of the health status, service life, and maintenance requirements of pipelines under the condition of pipeline network detection; pipeline network repair can be to repair problematic pipelines; pipeline network improvement is to optimize pipelines on the basis of the existing drainage pipeline network, such as adding new pipelines or optimizing the layout, etc.; pipeline dredging refers to dredging the blockages in pipelines; long-term management is the long-term monitoring and management of pipelines. The rain-sewage mixed connection transformation (rain-sewage separation) refers to adjusting the way of collecting, transporting, and treating rainwater and sewage in the same pipeline system, which are mixed, to the way of separately collecting, transporting, and treating rainwater and sewage, thereby reducing the risk of urban waterlogging.

[0064] Step S2042, when the first type of connection risk is less than the second type of connection risk, improve the water conservancy waterlogging drainage capacity. Specifically, when R1 < R2, the water conservancy waterlogging drainage standard is relatively low, which may cause the river water level to be too high and overflow to the street or submerge the outlet of the rainwater pipeline network, causing the pipeline drainage to be blocked and resulting in waterlogging. In the planning stage, measures such as reducing the river water level, such as building control sections and reasonably regulating the river water level, need to be proposed.

[0065] In an optional implementation manner, the above step S2042 includes:

[0066] Step b1, determine the engineering measures and management measures for improving the water conservancy waterlogging drainage capacity according to the water conservancy waterlogging drainage method and land use conditions.

[0067] Specifically, the engineering measures and management measures can be as shown in Table 2 below:

[0068] Table 2

[0069]

[0070]

[0071] Among them, self-drainage in the water conservancy waterlogging drainage method means that no additional power equipment is required and drainage is carried out only through natural conditions, while forced drainage means drainage through power equipment. For the relevant engineering measures, reference can also be made to the relevant technologies and will not be elaborated here. In addition, during actual implementation, one or more of these engineering measures can be selected from these engineering measures according to the actual situation of the city. For various management measures, among them, optimizing operation management means using scientific management and means to improve the water conservancy waterlogging drainage capacity. For example, big data technology can be used to analyze historical data, predict the waterlogging risk, and realize the intelligent dispatching of the drainage system through an intelligent dispatching platform. At the same time, an emergency plan can also be specified to improve the emergency response ability.

[0072] As a specific application example of the embodiment of the present invention, taking Lu'an City as an example, the risk analysis method for connecting the two-level drainage standards of the city can be implemented according to the following process:

[0073] The hourly rainfall data of Lu'an City from 2001 to 2020 were used. According to the annual maximum sampling method, the annual maximum 1h and 2h rainfall were selected respectively, and the continuous maximum 24h rainfall of the same rainfall was selected to form a joint observation series dominated by municipal drainage rainstorms and corresponding to water conservancy drainage rainstorms; the annual maximum 24h rainstorm was selected, and the maximum 1h and 2h rainstorms of each rainstorm of the same session were extracted to form a joint observation series dominated by water conservancy drainage rainstorms and corresponding to municipal drainage rainstorms. GumbelCopula was used as the link function to construct the joint distribution of different precipitation series. Through analysis and calculation, the 1h and 2h rainfall X dominated by municipal drainage was obtained. 1h , X 2h and the corresponding 24h rainfall Y' 24h The joint distribution F m (X, Y') and 24h rainfall mainly for water drainage and corresponding X' 1h , X' 2h Rainfall F c (Y, X'):

[0074] F m (X 1h , Y' 24h )=exp{-[(-lnF x (X 1h )) 1.4636 +(-lnF Y’ (Y' 24h ) 1.4636 ] 1 / 1.4636}Formula (5)

[0075] F m (X 2h , Y' 24h )=exp{-[(-lnF x (X 2h )) 1.4484 +(-lnF Y’ (Y' 24h ) 1.4484 ] 1 / 1.4484}Formula (6)

[0076] F c (Y 24h , X' 1h )=exp{-[(-lnF Y (Y 24h ) 1.1307 +(-lnF x’ (X1h )) 1.1307 ] 1 / 1.1307}Formula (7)

[0077] F c (Y 24h , X' 2h )=exp{-[(-lnF Y (Y 24h ) 1.2248 +(-lnF x’ (X 2h )) 1.2248 ] 1 / 1.2248}Formula (8)

[0078] For the design standard of rainstorms of different durations for municipal drainage, the return period is 50a, 20a, 10a, 5a, 3a and 2a; for the design standard of 24h rainstorms for water conservancy drainage, the return period is 50a, 30a, 20a, 10a and 5a. For any combination of the return period of a 24h rainstorm dominated by water conservancy drainage and a corresponding municipal drainage rainstorm of a certain duration, according to their marginal distribution probabilities, the corresponding joint distribution function is selected from formulas (7) and (8) to obtain the joint distribution probability, and then the first type of connection risk is calculated; for any combination of a certain duration rainstorm dominated by municipal drainage and a corresponding 24h rainstorm of water conservancy drainage, according to their marginal distribution probabilities, the corresponding joint distribution function is selected from formulas (5) and (6) to obtain the joint distribution probability, and then the second type of connection risk is calculated. The two types of risk results of the connection between 1h and 2h rainstorms for municipal drainage and 24h rainstorms for water conservancy drainage are shown in Table 3 below.

[0079] Table 3

[0080]

[0081] It can be seen from Table 3 that for any combination of the municipal drainage design rainstorm return period of 50a, 20a, 10a, 5a, 3a and 2a, the water conservancy drainage rainstorm return period of 50a, 30a, 20a, 10a and 5a, and the municipal drainage rainstorm design standard does not exceed the water conservancy drainage rainstorm design standard, the overall connection risk has the following rules: ① The first type of connection risk is relatively large, which decreases significantly with the improvement of municipal drainage standards, but does not change significantly with the water conservancy drainage standards. When the municipal drainage design rainstorm return period is 10a, 5a, 3a and 2a, the first type of connection risk is 7.71%~9.47%, 15.62%~19.15%, 30.41%~32.79%, 45.57%~49.55% respectively; ② The second type of connection risk is relatively small, and decreases with the improvement of water conservancy drainage standards, and increases slightly with the improvement of municipal drainage standards.

[0082] The drainage standard of the municipal pipe network in the central urban area of ​​Lu'an is once in 1 year to once in 3 years, and the standard of water conservancy flood control and drainage is once in 50 years. The first type of connection risk is not less than 32.54%, while the second type of connection risk is less than 2%. In other words, there is at least a 32.54% probability that the municipal drainage system cannot discharge the rainstorm water within the water conservancy drainage standard into the urban river network in time, while there is only less than a 2% probability that the water conservancy drainage system cannot discharge the rainstorm water discharged by the municipal drainage system into the urban river network in time. It can be seen that the urban flood control and drainage standards are generally high, and the risk of waterlogging is usually higher than the risk of flood control and drainage. That is, avoiding and effectively preventing the first type of connection risk is the key issue to be solved in the planning stage. In order to improve the city's ability to cope with rainstorm waterlogging, it is necessary to try to improve the municipal drainage design standards. Therefore, measures and suggestions for improving the city's municipal drainage capacity must be proposed in the planning stage.

[0083] According to the outdoor drainage design specifications, the design recurrence period of rainwater irrigation channels in the central urban area of ​​megacities is 3 to 5 years. Even if the municipal drainage network is upgraded to the standard of once in five years, the first type of connection risk is still around 19.28%. If the municipal drainage design recurrence period reaches 10 or 20 years, the first type of connection risk can be reduced to 4.32% to 9.47%. However, the comprehensive expansion and upgrading of the existing drainage system will face many difficulties such as huge cost, implementation difficulties, demolition, and time-consuming. This is especially true in old urban areas and built-up urban areas with large populations, large building areas, limited site space, and crowded underground pipelines. Therefore, the municipal drainage standards should be improved in different regions and stages during the planning stage.

[0084] According to the overall urban planning of Lu'an City, the rainwater system of Lu'an is divided into three primary zones and several secondary zones. Taking the three secondary rainwater catchment zones of A rainwater zone, B rainwater zone and C rainwater zone as examples, there are 9 rainwater waterlogging points within the scope, namely D point, E point, F point, G point, H point, I point, G point, K point and L point. According to risk analysis, the key point of waterlogging point governance is to improve the municipal drainage capacity, and select appropriate governance plans according to the drainage system and land use conditions, as shown in Table 4 below.

[0085] Table 4

[0086]

[0087]

[0088] In this embodiment, a risk analysis device for connecting urban two-level drainage standards is also provided, which is used to implement the above-mentioned embodiments and preferred implementation modes, and will not be repeated hereafter. As used below, the term "module" can be a combination of software and / or hardware that implements a predetermined function. Although the devices described in the following embodiments are preferably implemented in software, the implementation of hardware, or a combination of software and hardware, is also possible and conceivable.

[0089] This embodiment provides a risk analysis device for connecting two levels of urban drainage standards. Figure 2 As shown, including:

[0090] The data acquisition module 21 is used to obtain rainfall samples for water conservancy drainage and municipal drainage in the planning area and construct edge distribution using P-III type distribution;

[0091] Function construction module 22, for constructing joint probability distribution functions of water conservancy drainage as the main and municipal drainage as the corresponding and municipal drainage as the main and water conservancy drainage as the corresponding based on marginal distribution and using Copula function;

[0092] The risk calculation module 23 is used to calculate the first type of connection risk that the duration of heavy rain for water conservancy drainage does not exceed the standard but the duration of heavy rain for municipal drainage exceeds the standard and the second type of connection risk that the duration of heavy rain for municipal drainage does not exceed the standard but the duration of heavy rain for water conservancy drainage exceeds the standard based on the joint probability distribution function;

[0093] The measure determination module 24 is used to determine the risk planning measures based on the magnitude relationship between the first-type connection risk and the second-type connection risk.

[0094] In an optional embodiment, the measure determination module includes: a standard improvement module, which is used to improve the municipal drainage standard when the first type of connection risk is greater than the second type of connection risk; and a capacity improvement module, which is used to improve the water conservancy drainage capacity when the first type of connection risk is less than the second type of connection risk.

[0095] In an optional embodiment, the standard improvement module includes: a first measure determination module, which is used to determine the engineering measures and management measures for improving the municipal drainage standards based on the municipal drainage system and land use conditions; and / or, the capacity improvement module includes: a second measure determination module, which is used to determine the engineering measures and management measures for improving the water conservancy drainage capacity based on the water conservancy drainage method and land use conditions.

[0096] In an optional implementation manner, the first measure determination module is specifically configured to:

[0097] When the municipal drainage system is diversion and the land use condition is land available, the engineering measures include one or more of the following: new rainwater wetlands, wet ponds, rainwater gardens, green roofs, permeable pavements, sunken green spaces, infiltration ponds, grass-planted ditches, high-water high-drainage, low-water low-drainage, water diversion, changing the rainwater self-drainage system to forced drainage or adjusting the service scope of existing pumping stations, building storage facilities, building connecting pipes between rainwater pipes, and improving rainwater outlets;

[0098] When the municipal drainage system is diversion and the land use condition is no land, the engineering measures include one or more of the following: setting up water storage tanks, rainwater tanks, green roofs, permeable pavement, bioretention facilities, infiltration wells, infiltration channels, high water high drainage, low water low drainage, water diversion, changing the rainwater self-drainage system to forced drainage, adjusting the service scope of existing pumping stations, building connecting pipes between rainwater pipes, and improving rainwater outlets;

[0099] When the municipal drainage system is combined and the land use condition is land, the engineering measures include one or more of the following: setting up green roofs, permeable pavement, sunken green space, infiltration ponds, grass-planted ditches, high water high drainage, low water low drainage, changing the rainwater self-drainage system to forced drainage, adjusting the service scope of existing pumping stations, building storage facilities, and improving rainwater inlets;

[0100] When the municipal drainage system is combined and the land use condition is no land, the engineering measures shall include one or more of the following: setting up reservoirs, rainwater tanks, green roofs, permeable pavement, bioretention facilities, infiltration wells, infiltration channels, high-water high drainage, low-water low drainage, water diversion, changing the rainwater self-drainage system to forced drainage, adjusting the service scope of existing pumping stations, building connecting pipes between rainwater pipes, and improving rainwater outlets.

[0101] In an optional embodiment, the first measure determination module is also used for: when the municipal drainage system is diversion and the land use conditions are with land or without land, determining that the management measures include one or more of pipeline network detection, pipeline network assessment, pipeline network repair, pipeline network improvement and pipeline network dredging; when the municipal drainage system is confluence and the land use conditions are with land or without land, determining that the management measures include one or more of pipeline network detection, pipeline assessment, pipeline network repair, pipeline network improvement, pipeline dredging and rainwater and sewage mixed connection transformation.

[0102] In an optional implementation manner, the second measure determination module is specifically configured to:

[0103] When the water conservancy drainage method is self-drainage and the land use condition is that there is land, the engineering measures include one or more of river channel construction, river and lake water surface ratio and river network density control, pump and sluice construction, water level control, improving the drainage standards of inland river systems, high water high drainage, low water low drainage, water diversion, and changing the rainwater self-drainage system to forced drainage;

[0104] When the water conservancy drainage method is self-drainage and the land use condition is no land, the engineering measures include one or more of the following: adjustment of pump and sluice scheduling plan, water level control, high-water high-drainage, low-water low-drainage, water diversion, and changing the rainwater self-drainage system to forced drainage;

[0105] When the water conservancy drainage method is forced drainage and the land use condition is that there is land, the engineering measures include river channel construction, river and lake water surface ratio and river network density control, pump and sluice construction, water level control; improving the drainage standards of inland river systems, adjusting the service scope of existing pump stations, and improving the stormwater inlets;

[0106] When the water conservancy drainage method is forced drainage and the land use condition is that there is no land, the engineering measures are determined to include one or more of adjusting the service range of the existing pump station and improving the stormwater inlet.

[0107] In an optional implementation, the management measures for improving the water conservancy drainage capacity include: one or more of river water level monitoring, regular river dredging and optimization of operation management.

[0108] The further functional description of each of the above modules and units is the same as that of the above corresponding embodiments and will not be repeated here.

[0109] The embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer device having the above Figure 2 The risk analysis device for connecting the two levels of urban drainage standards is shown.

[0110] See also Figure 3 , Figure 3 is a schematic diagram of the structure of a computer device provided by an optional embodiment of the present invention, such as Figure 3 As shown, the computer device includes: one or more processors 10, a memory 20, and interfaces for connecting various components, including high-speed interfaces and low-speed interfaces. Various components are connected to each other using different buses for communication, and can be installed on a common mainboard or installed in other ways as needed. The processor can process the instructions executed in the computer device, including instructions stored in or on the memory to display the graphical information of the GUI on an external input / output device (such as, a display device coupled to the interface). In some optional embodiments, if necessary, multiple processors and / or multiple buses can be used together with multiple memories and multiple memories. Similarly, multiple computer devices can be connected, and each device provides some necessary operations (for example, as a server array, a group of blade servers, or a multi-processor system). Figure 3 A processor 10 is taken as an example.

[0111] The processor 10 may be a central processing unit, a network processor or a combination thereof. The processor 10 may further include a hardware chip. The hardware chip may be a dedicated integrated circuit, a programmable logic device or a combination thereof. The programmable logic device may be a complex programmable logic device, a field programmable gate array, a general purpose array logic or any combination thereof.

[0112] The memory 20 stores instructions executable by at least one processor 10, so that at least one processor 10 executes the method shown in the above embodiment.

[0113] The memory 20 may include a program storage area and a data storage area, wherein the program storage area may store an operating system, an application required for at least one function; the data storage area may store data created by the use of a computer device based on the presentation of a small program landing page, etc. In addition, the memory 20 may include a high-speed random access memory, and may also include a non-transient memory, such as at least one disk storage device, a flash memory device, or other non-transient solid-state storage device. In some optional embodiments, the memory 20 may optionally include a memory remotely arranged relative to the processor 10, and these remote memories may be connected to the computer device via a network. Examples of the above-mentioned network include, but are not limited to, the Internet, an intranet, a local area network, a mobile communication network, and combinations thereof.

[0114] The memory 20 may include a volatile memory, such as a random access memory; the memory may also include a non-volatile memory, such as a flash memory, a hard disk or a solid state drive; the memory 20 may also include a combination of the above types of memory.

[0115] The computer device further comprises a communication interface 30 for the computer device to communicate with other devices or a communication network.

[0116] The embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium. The method according to the embodiment of the present invention can be implemented in hardware, firmware, or can be implemented as a computer code that can be recorded in a storage medium, or can be implemented as a computer code that is originally stored in a remote storage medium or a non-temporary machine-readable storage medium and will be stored in a local storage medium through a network download, so that the method described herein can be stored in such software processing on a storage medium using a general-purpose computer, a dedicated processor, or programmable or dedicated hardware. Among them, the storage medium can be a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a read-only storage memory, a random access memory, a flash memory, a hard disk or a solid-state hard disk, etc.; further, the storage medium can also include a combination of the above types of memories. It can be understood that a computer, a processor, a microprocessor controller, or programmable hardware includes a storage component that can store or receive software or computer code. When the software or computer code is accessed and executed by a computer, a processor, or hardware, the method shown in the above embodiment is implemented.

[0117] A part of the present invention may be applied as a computer program product, such as a computer program instruction, which, when executed by a computer, can call or provide the method and / or technical solution according to the present invention through the operation of the computer. Those skilled in the art should understand that the existence of the computer program instruction in a computer-readable medium includes, but is not limited to, a source file, an executable file, an installation package file, etc., and accordingly, the way in which the computer program instruction is executed by the computer includes, but is not limited to: the computer directly executes the instruction, or the computer compiles the instruction and then executes the corresponding compiled program, or the computer reads and executes the instruction, or the computer reads and installs the instruction and then executes the corresponding installed program. Here, the computer-readable medium may be any available computer-readable storage medium or communication medium accessible to the computer.

[0118] Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, those skilled in the art may make various modifications and variations without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, and such modifications and variations are all within the scope defined by the appended claims.

Claims

1. A risk analysis method for linking urban two-level drainage standards, characterized in that: The method comprises: Obtain rainfall samples for water conservancy drainage and municipal drainage in the planning area and construct marginal distribution using P-III type distribution; Based on the marginal distribution, the Copula function is used to construct the joint probability distribution function of water conservancy drainage as the main and municipal drainage as the corresponding and municipal drainage as the main and water conservancy drainage as the corresponding; Based on the joint probability distribution function, calculate the first type of connection risk that the duration of water conservancy drainage rainstorm does not exceed the standard but the duration of municipal drainage rainstorm exceeds the standard and the second type of connection risk that the duration of municipal drainage rainstorm does not exceed the standard but the duration of water conservancy drainage rainstorm exceeds the standard; Determine risk planning measures based on the magnitude relationship between the first type of connection risk and the second type of connection risk.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Determining risk planning measures based on the magnitude relationship between the first-category connection risk and the second-category connection risk includes: When the first type of connection risk is greater than the second type of connection risk, the municipal drainage standard shall be raised; When the first type of connection risk is smaller than the second type of connection risk, the water conservancy drainage capacity is improved.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that Improve municipal drainage standards, including: Determine engineering measures and management measures to improve municipal drainage standards based on the municipal drainage system and land use conditions; and / or, improve water drainage capacity, including: Determine engineering and management measures to improve water conservancy drainage capacity based on water conservancy drainage methods and land use conditions.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that Determine engineering measures to improve municipal drainage standards based on the municipal drainage system and land use conditions, including: When the municipal drainage system is diversion and the land use condition is land available, the engineering measures include one or more of the following: new rainwater wetlands, wet ponds, rainwater gardens, green roofs, permeable pavements, sunken green spaces, infiltration ponds, grass-planted ditches, high-water high-drainage, low-water low-drainage, water diversion, changing the rainwater self-drainage system to forced drainage or adjusting the service scope of existing pumping stations, building storage facilities, building connecting pipes between rainwater pipes, and improving rainwater outlets; When the municipal drainage system is diversion and the land use condition is no land, the engineering measures include one or more of the following: setting up water storage tanks, rainwater tanks, green roofs, permeable pavement, bioretention facilities, infiltration wells, infiltration channels, high water high drainage, low water low drainage, water diversion, changing the rainwater self-drainage system to forced drainage, adjusting the service scope of existing pumping stations, building connecting pipes between rainwater pipes, and improving rainwater outlets; When the municipal drainage system is combined and the land use condition is land, the engineering measures include one or more of the following: setting up green roofs, permeable pavement, sunken green space, infiltration ponds, grass-planted ditches, high water high drainage, low water low drainage, changing the rainwater self-drainage system to forced drainage, adjusting the service scope of existing pumping stations, building storage facilities, and improving rainwater inlets; When the municipal drainage system is combined and the land use condition is no land, the engineering measures shall include one or more of the following: setting up reservoirs, rainwater tanks, green roofs, permeable pavement, bioretention facilities, infiltration wells, infiltration channels, high-water high drainage, low-water low drainage, water diversion, changing the rainwater self-drainage system to forced drainage, adjusting the service scope of existing pumping stations, building connecting pipes between rainwater pipes, and improving rainwater outlets.

5. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that: Determine management measures to improve municipal drainage standards based on the municipal drainage system and land use conditions, including: When the municipal drainage system is diversion and the land use conditions are landed or landless, the management measures include one or more of pipe network detection, pipe network assessment, pipe network repair, pipe network improvement and pipe network dredging; When the municipal drainage system is combined and the land use conditions are with or without land, the management measures shall include one or more of pipeline network inspection, pipeline assessment, pipeline network repair, pipeline network improvement, pipeline dredging and rainwater and sewage mixed connection transformation.

6. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that Determine engineering measures to improve water conservancy drainage capacity based on water conservancy drainage methods and land use conditions, including: When the water conservancy drainage method is self-drainage and the land use condition is that there is land, the engineering measures include one or more of river channel construction, river and lake water surface ratio and river network density control, pump and sluice construction, water level control, improving the drainage standards of inland river systems, high water high drainage, low water low drainage, water diversion, and changing the rainwater self-drainage system to forced drainage; When the water conservancy drainage method is self-drainage and the land use condition is no land, the engineering measures include one or more of the following: adjustment of pump and sluice scheduling plan, water level control, high-water high-drainage, low-water low-drainage, water diversion, and changing the rainwater self-drainage system to forced drainage; When the water conservancy drainage method is forced drainage and the land use condition is that there is land, the engineering measures include river channel construction, river and lake water surface ratio and river network density control, pump and sluice construction, water level control; improving the drainage standards of inland river systems, adjusting the service scope of existing pump stations, and improving the stormwater inlets; When the water conservancy drainage method is forced drainage and the land use condition is that there is no land, the engineering measures are determined to include one or more of adjusting the service range of the existing pump station and improving the stormwater inlet.

7. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that Management measures to improve water conservancy drainage capacity include one or more of: river water level monitoring, regular river dredging and optimized operation management.

8. A risk analysis device for connecting urban two-level drainage standards, characterized in that: The device comprises: The data acquisition module is used to obtain rainfall samples for water conservancy drainage and municipal drainage in the planning area and construct marginal distribution using P-III type distribution; A function construction module is used to construct a joint probability distribution function based on the marginal distribution and using a Copula function, which is mainly based on water conservancy drainage and corresponding to municipal drainage, and mainly based on municipal drainage and corresponding to water conservancy drainage; A risk calculation module, for calculating, based on the joint probability distribution function, the first type of connection risk that the duration of water conservancy drainage rainstorm does not exceed the standard but the duration of municipal drainage rainstorm exceeds the standard, and the second type of connection risk that the duration of municipal drainage rainstorm does not exceed the standard but the duration of water conservancy drainage rainstorm exceeds the standard; A measure determination module is used to determine risk planning measures based on the size relationship between the first type of connection risk and the second type of connection risk.

9. A computer device, characterized in that: include: A memory and a processor, wherein the memory and the processor are communicatively connected to each other, the memory stores computer instructions, and the processor executes the risk analysis method for connecting the two-level urban drainage standards as described in any one of claims 1 to 7 by executing the computer instructions.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium stores computer instructions, and the computer instructions are used to enable a computer to execute the risk analysis method for connecting the two-level urban drainage standards according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

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