Method and system for calculating coal power peak installation scale for novel power system

Abstract

The invention discloses a novel power system-oriented coal power peak value installation scale calculation method and system. The method comprises the following steps of: 1, drawing up an initial newly-added coal power installation scale; 2, calculating the average utilization hours of the coal electricity; 3, judging whether a carbon emission constraint and a coal power utilization hour constraint are met or not; if the two conditions are met, taking the initial newly-added coal and electricity installation scale as the newly-added coal and electricity installation maximum value of the planning year, and jumping to 5; otherwise, entering the step 4; 4, if the carbon emission constraint is not satisfied, introducing an external incoming call; if the constraint of the coal power utilization hours is not met, the newly-added coal power installation scale is reduced until the two conditions are met, and therefore the newly-added coal power installation maximum value of the planning year is obtained; and 5, circulating the steps 1-4, and selecting the maximum value from the newly added coal and electricity installation maximum values of each planning year as the peak value installation scale in the planning interval. According to the method, the coal power peak installation scale can be determined under the condition of guaranteeing multiple indexes such as safety and green, and a scientific basis is provided for power supply planning of a power system.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power system planning, and in particular to a method and system for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation for a new power system. Background Art

[0002] At present, the power supply planning for coal-fired power is mainly assessed through a single dimension of power and electricity balance, which is difficult to apply when considering comprehensive factors such as carbon emission constraints and the economic feasibility of coal-fired power companies themselves in new power systems. Summary of the invention

[0003] The present invention provides a method and system for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation for a new type of power system, so as to solve the technical problems mentioned in the background technology.

[0004] To achieve the above object, the technical solution of the present invention is achieved as follows: The present invention provides a method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation for a new power system, comprising the following steps: S1. Obtain the existing and planned installed capacity of various power sources in the region, the output coefficients of various power sources, the planned annual load and power forecast results, and the planned annual carbon emission constraint forecast results. With the help of the acquired data and using a typical large load method, calculate the power balance for the planned year, obtain the total additional demand for supporting power sources in the planned year, and formulate the initial additional coal-fired power installed capacity based on the total additional demand for supporting power sources in the planned year; S2. Calculate the required power generation of all coal-fired power plants under the initial scale of newly added coal-fired power installed capacity, and calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year and the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region based on the required power generation of all coal-fired power plants; S3: Determine whether the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planning year meet the carbon emission constraints, and determine whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the coal-fired power utilization hours constraints; if both are met, the initial new coal-fired power installed capacity will be used as the maximum value of the new coal-fired power installed capacity in the planning year, and jump to S5; otherwise, enter S4; S4. On the basis of ensuring the balance of electricity and power, if the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year do not meet the carbon emission constraints, then introduce electricity from outside the region; if the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region do not meet the utilization hours constraints of coal-fired power, then reduce the scale of new coal-fired power installed capacity until both are met, thereby obtaining the maximum value of new coal-fired power installed capacity in the planned year; S5. Repeat S1 to S4 until the maximum value of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity in all planning years within the planning interval is obtained, and the maximum value is selected from the maximum value of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity in each planning year as the peak installed capacity scale in the planning interval.

[0005] Furthermore, the S1 specifically includes the following steps: S11. Obtain the existing and planned installed capacity of various power sources in the region, the newly-built power projects that have been confirmed, the output coefficients of various power sources, the planned annual load forecast results, the planned annual electricity forecast results, and the planned annual carbon emission constraint forecast results; S12. Using the load forecast results for the planned year, the output coefficients of various power sources, and the installed capacity of various power sources, the power balance calculation for the planned year is performed according to the typical large load mode to obtain the total additional demand for supporting power sources in the planned year; the typical large load mode is the mode with the largest load; S13. Determine the initial scale of new coal-fired power generation capacity based on the total additional demand for supporting power sources in the planned year , and use this as scenario 1; the initial new coal-fired power capacity The details are as follows: ; in, Represents the total new demand for supporting power supply in the planned year.

[0006] Furthermore, the calculation formula for the total additional demand for supporting power supply in the planned year in S1 is as follows: ; in, is the scale of hydropower installed capacity; The scale of coal-fired power generation capacity has been determined; is the scale of wind power installed capacity; is the scale of photovoltaic installed capacity; is the biomass installed capacity; is the scale of gas-fired power generation capacity; is the installed capacity of energy storage; The scale of out-of-region electricity inflow has been clearly identified; is the maximum load; is the hydropower output coefficient; is the wind power output coefficient; is the photovoltaic output coefficient; is the biomass output coefficient; is the energy storage output coefficient; is the power output coefficient from outside the region; is the load factor.

[0007] Furthermore, the S2 specifically includes the following steps: S21. Calculate the initial scale of new coal-fired power generation capacity The amount of electricity required for all coal-fired power plants ; All coal-fired power generation required The calculation formula is as follows: ; in, Provide annual electricity forecast results for regional planning; The number of hours of hydropower installed capacity utilization; The number of hours of wind power installed capacity utilization; The number of hours of photovoltaic installation utilization; The number of hours of biomass installed capacity utilization; The number of hours for energy storage utilization; It is the utilization hours of gas-fired power generation; The number of hours of electricity usage from outside the district; S22, based on the required power generation of all coal-fired power plants Calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year , the calculation formula is as follows: ; in, is the carbon emission coefficient of coal-fired power generation; is the carbon emission coefficient of gas-fired power generation; is the carbon emission coefficient of electricity from outside the region; Carbon emissions in the non-electric energy sector in the region include carbon emissions from non-electric coal, carbon emissions from oil consumption, and carbon emissions from non-electric natural gas consumption in the region; S23, based on the required power generation of all coal-fired power plants , Initial new coal-fired power capacity Calculate the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region , the calculation formula is as follows: ; in, The scale of coal-fired power installed capacity has been clearly defined.

[0008] Furthermore, the S3 specifically includes the following steps: S31. Calculate the break-even point of utilization hours under the condition of meeting the benchmark rate of return of coal-fired power enterprises; S32. Determine the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year Whether the carbon emission constraints are met. The carbon emission constraints are as follows: ; in, The carbon emission constraint prediction result for the planned year obtained in S1; S33. Determine whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the coal-fired power utilization hours constraint. The coal-fired power utilization hours constraint is as follows: ; in, To meet the break-even point of utilization hours under the benchmark rate of return of coal-fired power enterprises; S34: If both the carbon emission constraint and the coal-fired power utilization hours constraint are met, the initial new coal-fired power installed capacity will be used as the maximum new coal-fired power installed capacity in the planning year, and jump to S5; otherwise, enter S4.

[0009] Furthermore, the calculation formula for the break-even point of utilization hours in S31 under the condition of meeting the benchmark rate of return of coal-fired power enterprises is as follows: ; in, It is the benchmark rate of return for coal-fired power companies; is the annualized value of fixed cost; R is the annual value of coal-fired power capacity price; P is the coal-fired power price; is the operation and maintenance cost per unit of electricity; The tax and surcharge per unit of electricity; The carbon emission cost per unit of electricity.

[0010] Furthermore, the S4 specifically includes the following steps: S41, judging whether the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year meet the carbon emission constraints, if yes, jumping to S45; otherwise, entering S42; S42. Initial new coal-fired power generation capacity Based on the introduction of new external power scale , taking this as scenario 2, under the premise of meeting the power balance, calculate the required coal-fired power generation in scenario 2 , Scenario 2: Total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year , Average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 2 ; S43. Determine the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year of scenario 2 Whether the carbon emission constraints are met and the average utilization hours of coal power in the region in scenario 2 are determined Whether the coal power utilization hours constraint is met; if both are met, then go to S44; otherwise, loop from S42 to S43 until both the carbon emission constraint and the coal power utilization hours constraint are met; The carbon emission constraint in S43 is expressed by the following formula: ; The coal power utilization hours constraint in S43 is expressed by the formula as follows: ; S44, judging whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the utilization hours constraint of coal-fired power. If so, jump to S5; otherwise, go to S45; S45. Initial scale of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity On the basis of reducing the scale of new coal-fired power generation, and introducing new scale of power from outside the region , taking this as scenario three; under the premise of meeting the power balance, calculate the required coal-fired power generation of scenario three , Scenario 3: Total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year , Average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 3 ; S46. Determine the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year of scenario 2 Whether the carbon emission constraints are met, determine the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 3 Whether the coal power utilization hours constraint is met, if both are met, jump to S5, otherwise loop S45 to S46 until both are met; The carbon emission constraint in S46 is expressed by the following formula: ; The coal power utilization hours constraint in S46 is expressed by the formula as follows: .

[0011] Furthermore, the S42 specifically includes the following steps: S421. Initial new coal-fired power generation capacity Based on the introduction of new external power scale , thus we get scene 2; S422. Calculate the required coal-fired power generation in scenario 2 on the premise of meeting the power and electricity balance requirement. , where the power and electricity balance is expressed by the formula as follows: ; Required power generation of coal-fired power in scenario 2 The calculation formula is as follows: ; S423, then calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year of scenario 2 , as follows: ; S424. Calculate the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 2 , as follows: .

[0012] Furthermore, the S45 specifically includes the following steps: S451. Initial scale of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity On the basis of reducing the scale of new coal-fired power generation, and introducing new scale of power from outside the region , using this as scenario three; S452. Calculate the required coal-fired power generation in scenario 3 on the premise of meeting the power and electricity balance requirement. , where the power quantity in S452 is as follows: ; in, This is the scale of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity in scenario three; S453. Calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year for scenario 3 , Average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 3 , where the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario three The calculation formula is as follows: .

[0013] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a system for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation, including a computer device, and the computer device is programmed or configured to execute the above method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation.

[0014] Beneficial effects of the present invention: The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power disclosed in the present invention takes into account the carbon emission constraints in the energy field while ensuring the supply of electric power, and also takes into account the constraints on the utilization hours of coal-fired power. The constraints on the utilization hours of coal-fired power are the requirements for the economy of coal-fired power enterprises, and then derives the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power. It can be used to guide the medium- and long-term development of supporting power sources in energy-deficient regions to ensure that the power system meets the load supply needs and the economy of the power source. It has guiding significance for power source planning, and is of great significance to the development of new power systems and the construction of new energy systems. It also provides a scientific basis for the power source planning of new power systems under the "dual carbon" goal. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0015] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power in the present invention; Figure 2 This is a graph showing the required power generation and carbon emission data of coal-fired power in the corresponding scenario in 2030 in an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 3 This is a data graph of coal power utilization hours corresponding to the scenario in 2030 in an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 4 This is a graph showing the required electricity generation and carbon emission data of coal-fired power in 2030 corresponding to scenario 2 in an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 5 This is a data graph of coal power utilization hours corresponding to scenario 2 in 2030 in an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 6 This is a graph of the required power generation and carbon emission data of coal-fired power in 2030 corresponding to scenario three in an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 7 This is a data graph of coal power utilization hours corresponding to scenario three in 2030 in an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 8 This is a graph showing the required power generation and carbon emission data of coal-fired power in the corresponding scenario in 2035 in an embodiment of the present invention; Fig. 9 This is a data graph of coal power utilization hours corresponding to the scenario in 2035 in an embodiment of the present invention; Fig.10 This is a graph of the required power generation and carbon emission data of coal-fired power in 2035 corresponding to scenario 2 in an embodiment of the present invention; Fig.11 This is a data graph of coal power utilization hours corresponding to scenario 2 in 2035 in an embodiment of the present invention; Fig.12 This is a graph showing the required electricity generation and carbon emission data of coal-fired power in 2035 corresponding to scenario three in an embodiment of the present invention; Fig.13 This is a data graph of coal power utilization hours corresponding to scenario three in 2035 in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0016] In order to facilitate the understanding of the present invention, the present invention will be described more fully below with reference to the relevant drawings. Preferred embodiments of the present invention are provided in the drawings. However, the present invention can be implemented in many other different forms and is not limited to the embodiments described herein. On the contrary, the purpose of providing these embodiments is to make the understanding of the disclosure of the present invention more thorough and comprehensive.

[0017] Reference Figure 1 The embodiment of the present application provides a method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power for a new power system, comprising the following steps: S1. Obtain the existing and planned installed capacity of various power sources in the region, the newly-built power projects that have been identified, the output coefficients of various power sources, the load and power forecast results for the planned year, and the carbon emission constraint forecast results for the planned year. With the help of the acquired data and using a typical large-load method, calculate the power balance for the planned year, obtain the total additional demand for supporting power sources in the planned year, and formulate the initial additional coal-fired power installed capacity based on the total additional demand for supporting power sources in the planned year; S2. Calculate the required power generation of all coal-fired power plants under the initial scale of newly added coal-fired power installed capacity, and calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year and the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region based on the required power generation of all coal-fired power plants; S3: Determine whether the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planning year meet the carbon emission constraints, and determine whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the coal-fired power utilization hours constraints; if both are met, the initial new coal-fired power installed capacity will be used as the maximum value of the new coal-fired power installed capacity in the planning year, and jump to S5; otherwise, enter S4; S4. On the basis of ensuring the balance of electricity and power, if the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year do not meet the carbon emission constraints, then introduce electricity from outside the region; if the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region do not meet the utilization hours constraints of coal-fired power, then reduce the scale of new coal-fired power installed capacity until both are met, thereby obtaining the maximum value of new coal-fired power installed capacity in the planned year; S5. Repeat S1 to S4 until the maximum value of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity in all planning years within the planning interval is obtained, and the maximum value is selected from the maximum value of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity in each planning year as the peak installed capacity scale in the planning interval.

[0018] The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power disclosed in the present invention takes into account the carbon emission constraints in the energy field while ensuring the supply of electric power, and also takes into account the constraints on the utilization hours of coal-fired power. The constraints on the utilization hours of coal-fired power are the requirements for the economy of coal-fired power enterprises, and then derives the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power. It can be used to guide the medium- and long-term development of supporting power sources in energy-deficient regions to ensure that the power system meets the load supply needs and the economy of the power source. It has guiding significance for power source planning, and is of great significance to the development of new power systems and the construction of new energy systems. It also provides a scientific basis for the power source planning of new power systems under the "dual carbon" goal.

[0019] In some embodiments, the S1 specifically includes the following steps: S11. Obtain the existing and planned installed capacity of various power sources in the region, the newly-built power projects that have been confirmed, the output coefficients of various power sources, the planned annual load forecast results, the planned annual electricity forecast results, and the planned annual carbon emission constraint forecast results; S12. Using the load forecast results for the planned year, the output coefficients of various power sources, and the installed capacity of various power sources, the power balance calculation for the planned year is performed according to the typical large load mode to obtain the total additional demand for supporting power sources in the planned year; the typical large load mode is the mode with the largest load; S13. Determine the initial scale of new coal-fired power generation capacity based on the total additional demand for supporting power sources in the planned year , and use this as scenario 1; the initial new coal-fired power capacity The details are as follows: ; in, Represents the total new demand for supporting power supply in the planned year.

[0020] In some embodiments, the calculation formula for the planned annual additional total demand for supporting power in S1 is as follows: ; in, is the scale of hydropower installed capacity; The scale of coal-fired power generation capacity has been determined; is the scale of wind power installed capacity; is the scale of photovoltaic installed capacity; is the biomass installed capacity; is the scale of gas-fired power generation capacity; is the installed capacity of energy storage; The scale of out-of-region electricity inflow has been clearly identified; is the maximum load; is the hydropower output coefficient; is the wind power output coefficient; is the photovoltaic output coefficient; is the biomass output coefficient; is the energy storage output coefficient; is the power output coefficient from outside the region; is the load factor.

[0021] In some embodiments, S2 specifically includes the following steps: S21. Calculate the initial scale of new coal-fired power generation capacity The amount of electricity required for all coal-fired power plants ; All coal-fired power generation required The calculation formula is as follows: ; in, Provide annual electricity forecast results for regional planning; The number of hours of hydropower installed capacity utilization; The number of hours of wind power installed capacity utilization; The number of hours of photovoltaic installation utilization; The number of hours of biomass installed capacity utilization; The number of hours for energy storage utilization; It is the utilization hours of gas-fired power generation; The number of hours of electricity usage from outside the district; S22, based on the required power generation of all coal-fired power plants Calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year , the calculation formula is as follows: ; in, is the carbon emission coefficient of coal-fired power generation; is the carbon emission coefficient of gas-fired power generation; is the carbon emission coefficient of electricity from outside the region; Carbon emissions in the non-electric energy sector in the region include carbon emissions from non-electric coal, carbon emissions from oil consumption, and carbon emissions from non-electric natural gas consumption in the region; S23, based on the required power generation of all coal-fired power plants , Initial new coal-fired power capacity Calculate the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region , the calculation formula is as follows: ; in, The scale of coal-fired power installed capacity has been clearly defined.

[0022] In some embodiments, S3 specifically includes the following steps: S31. Calculate the break-even point of utilization hours under the condition of meeting the benchmark rate of return of coal-fired power enterprises; S32. Determine the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year Whether the carbon emission constraints are met. The carbon emission constraints are as follows: ; in, The carbon emission constraint prediction result for the planned year obtained in S1; S33. Determine whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the coal-fired power utilization hours constraint. The coal-fired power utilization hours constraint is as follows: ; in, To meet the break-even point of utilization hours under the benchmark rate of return of coal-fired power enterprises; S34: If both the carbon emission constraint and the coal-fired power utilization hours constraint are met, the initial new coal-fired power installed capacity will be used as the maximum new coal-fired power installed capacity in the planning year, and jump to S5; otherwise, enter S4.

[0023] In some embodiments, the calculation formula of the utilization hours break-even point in S31 under the condition of meeting the benchmark rate of return of the coal-fired power enterprise is as follows: ; in, It is the benchmark rate of return for coal-fired power companies; is the annualized value of fixed cost; R is the annual value of coal-fired power capacity price; P is the coal-fired power price; is the operation and maintenance cost per unit of electricity; The tax and surcharge per unit of electricity; The carbon emission cost per unit of electricity.

[0024] In some embodiments, the S4 specifically includes the following steps: S41, judging whether the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year meet the carbon emission constraints, if yes, jumping to S45; otherwise, entering S42; S42. Initial new coal-fired power generation capacity Based on the introduction of new external power scale , taking this as scenario 2, under the premise of meeting the power balance, calculate the required coal-fired power generation in scenario 2 , Scenario 2: Total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year , Average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 2 ; S43. Determine the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year of scenario 2 Whether the carbon emission constraints are met and the average utilization hours of coal power in the region in scenario 2 are determined Whether the coal power utilization hours constraint is met; if both are met, then go to S44; otherwise, loop from S42 to S43 until both the carbon emission constraint and the coal power utilization hours constraint are met; The carbon emission constraint in S43 is expressed by the following formula: ; The coal power utilization hours constraint in S43 is expressed by the formula as follows: ; S44, judging whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the utilization hours constraint of coal-fired power. If so, jump to S5; otherwise, go to S45; S45. Initial scale of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity On the basis of reducing the scale of new coal-fired power generation, and introducing new scale of power from outside the region , taking this as scenario three; under the premise of meeting the power balance, calculate the required coal-fired power generation of scenario three , Scenario 3: Total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year , Average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 3 ; S46. Determine the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year of scenario 2 Whether the carbon emission constraints are met, determine the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 3 Whether the coal power utilization hours constraint is met, if both are met, jump to S5, otherwise loop S45 to S46 until both are met; The carbon emission constraint in S46 is expressed by the following formula: ; The coal power utilization hours constraint in S46 is expressed by the formula as follows: .

[0025] In some embodiments, the S42 specifically includes the following steps: S421. Initial new coal-fired power generation capacity Based on the introduction of new external power scale , thus we get scene 2; S422. Calculate the required coal-fired power generation in scenario 2 on the premise of meeting the power and electricity balance requirement. , where the power and electricity balance is expressed by the formula as follows: ; Required power generation of coal-fired power in scenario 2 The calculation formula is as follows: ; S423, then calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year of scenario 2 , as follows: ; S424. Calculate the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 2 , as follows: .

[0026] In some embodiments, the S45 specifically includes the following steps: S451. Initial scale of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity On the basis of reducing the scale of new coal-fired power generation, and introducing new scale of power from outside the region , using this as scenario three; S452. Calculate the required coal-fired power generation in scenario 3 on the premise of meeting the power and electricity balance requirement. , where the power quantity in S452 is as follows: ; in, This is the scale of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity in scenario three; S453. Calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year for scenario 3 , Average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 3 ; Among them, the coal-fired power generation required for scenario three is The calculation formula is as follows: ; Total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year of scenario three The calculation formula is as follows: ; Average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 3 The calculation formula is as follows: .

[0027] To facilitate understanding, two examples are given to illustrate. Case 1: Take the peak coal-fired power generation capacity configuration of a province in central China in 2030 as an example. The current annual power generation capacity of the region is 26 million kilowatts, and 10 million kilowatts of coal-fired power generation capacity has been planned.

[0028] The region's energy sector carbon emissions constraint is set at 340 million by 2030, and the average utilization hours for coal-fired power companies in the region to maintain economic efficiency is 2,700 hours.

[0029] Taking into account the current installed capacity of various power sources, the load forecast for 2030 is 76 million kilowatts, and the electricity forecast is 352 billion kilowatt-hours. At the same time, based on the scale of power sources that have been clearly planned to be put into operation, the total new demand for supporting power sources in 2030 will reach 10 million kilowatts.

[0030] Taking into account the existing and planned power sources, the total additional demand for supporting power sources will reach 10 million kilowatts in 2030. In the initial scenario (corresponding to scenario 1 in the calculation method of coal-fired power peak installed capacity), considering the addition of 10 million kilowatts of coal-fired power to fill the power gap, the carbon emissions of coal-fired power in this scenario are calculated to be 350 million tons, and the recent average utilization hours of coal-fired power in 2030 is about 2,900 hours. It is judged that the carbon emissions in this scenario do not meet the carbon emission constraints, but the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the utilization hours constraints of coal-fired power. For specific data, see Figure 2 and Figure 3 .

[0031] In order to meet the requirements of carbon emission constraints, based on this scenario, combined with scenario 2 in the calculation method of coal-fired power peak installed capacity, an 8 million kilowatt external power supply is added to the planning area, and an additional 10 million kilowatt coal-fired power installed capacity + an 8 million kilowatt external power supply is considered to fill the power gap. It is calculated that under this scenario, coal-fired carbon emissions can be controlled below 340 million tons, and the recent average number of coal-fired power utilization hours in 2030 is about 2,300 hours. It is judged that carbon emissions in this scenario can meet carbon emission constraints, but the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region do not meet the coal-fired power utilization hours constraint. For specific data, see Figure 4 and Figure 5 .

[0032] In order to meet the economic requirements of coal-fired power companies, based on scenario 2, combined with scenario 3 in the calculation method of coal-fired power peak installed capacity, considering the addition of 6 million kilowatts of coal-fired power installed capacity in the planning area + one 8 million kilowatts of external electricity to fill the power gap, it is calculated that under this scenario, coal-fired carbon emissions can be controlled below 340 million tons, and the recent average utilization hours of coal-fired power in 2030 is about 2,700 hours. It is judged that carbon emissions in this scenario can meet the carbon emission constraints, and the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the coal-fired power utilization hours constraints. The corresponding coal-fired power installed capacity is the maximum value of coal-fired power installed capacity in the region in 2030. For specific data, see Figure 6 and Figure 7 .

[0033] Based on the calculation results of the maximum installed capacity of coal-fired power in 2030, it is concluded that the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power in the province will be 6 million kilowatts on the basis of existing and confirmed power sources, and the corresponding coal-fired power installed capacity will be 42 million kilowatts.

[0034] Case 2: Take a province in central China as an example, and the peak coal-fired power generation configuration in 2035. The current annual power generation capacity in the region is 26 million kilowatts, and 10 million kilowatts of coal-fired power generation capacity has been planned.

[0035] The region's energy sector carbon emissions are capped at 330 million tons in 2035. The average economic utilization hours of coal-fired power companies in the region are 2,700 hours.

[0036] Taking into account the current installed capacity of various power sources, the load forecast in 2035 is 90 million kilowatts, and the electricity forecast is 415 billion kilowatt-hours. At the same time, based on the scale of power sources that have been clearly planned to be put into operation, the total new demand for supporting power sources in 2035 will reach 16 million kilowatts.

[0037] Taking into account the scale of power sources that have been clearly planned to be put into operation, the total new demand for power supporting power sources will reach 16 million kilowatts in 2035. Considering the calculation results of Case 1, when 6 million kilowatts of coal-fired power + 1 round of external power are added in 2030, 6 million kilowatts of new demand for supporting power sources still needs to be filled in 2035. In the initial scenario (corresponding to Scenario 1 in the calculation method of the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power), considering the addition of 6 million kilowatts of coal-fired power capacity, it is calculated that under this scenario, the carbon emissions of coal-fired power are 332 million tons, and the recent average utilization hours of coal-fired power in 2035 is about 2,700 hours. It is judged that the carbon emissions in this scenario do not meet the carbon emission constraints, and the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the constraints on the utilization hours of coal-fired power. For specific data, see Figure 8 and Fig. 9 .

[0038] In order to meet the requirements of carbon emissions, based on this scenario, combined with scenario 2 in the calculation method of peak coal-fired power installed capacity, an additional round of external electricity is added to the planning area, that is, considering the addition of 6 million kilowatts of coal-fired power installed capacity + an 8 million kilowatt external electricity to fill the power gap. It is calculated that under this scenario, coal-fired carbon emissions can be controlled below 330 million tons, and the recent average number of coal-fired power utilization hours in 2035 is about 2,200 hours. It is judged that carbon emissions in this scenario can meet the carbon emission constraints, and the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region do not meet the coal-fired power utilization hours constraints. For specific data, see Fig.10 and Fig.11 .

[0039] In order to meet the economic requirements of coal-fired power companies, based on scenario 2, combined with scenario 3 in the calculation method of coal-fired power peak installed capacity, the coal-fired power installed capacity is continuously reduced, and an 8 million kilowatt external power + pumped storage installed capacity is considered to fill the power gap. It is calculated that under this scenario, the carbon emissions of coal-fired power can be controlled below 330 million tons, and the recent average utilization hours of coal-fired power in 2035 is about 2,700 hours. It is judged that carbon emissions in this scenario can meet the carbon emission constraints, and the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the constraints on the utilization hours of coal-fired power. The corresponding coal-fired power installed capacity is 42 million kilowatts, which is the maximum coal-fired power installed capacity in the region in 2035. For specific data, see Fig.12 and Fig.13 .

[0040] Based on the calculation results of the maximum installed capacity of coal-fired power in 2035, it is concluded that the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power in the province will be an additional 6 million kilowatts on the basis of existing and identified power sources, and the total installed capacity of coal-fired power will reach 42 million kilowatts.

[0041] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a system for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation, including a computer device, and the computer device is programmed or configured to execute the above method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation.

[0042] The above is only a specific embodiment of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any technician familiar with the technical field can easily think of changes or substitutions within the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, which should be covered within the protection scope of the present invention. In addition, the technical solutions between the various embodiments of the present invention can be combined with each other, but it must be based on the ability of ordinary technicians in the field to implement. When the combination of technical solutions is contradictory or cannot be implemented, it should be considered that such a combination of technical solutions does not exist and is not within the protection scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention shall be based on the protection scope of the claims.

Claims

1. A method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power for new power systems, characterized in that: The steps include: S1. Obtain the existing and planned installed capacity of various power sources in the region, the output coefficients of various power sources, the planned annual load and power forecast results, and the planned annual carbon emission constraint forecast results. With the help of the acquired data and using a typical large load method, calculate the power balance for the planned year, obtain the total additional demand for supporting power sources in the planned year, and formulate the initial additional coal-fired power installed capacity based on the total additional demand for supporting power sources in the planned year; S2. Calculate the required power generation of all coal-fired power plants under the initial scale of newly added coal-fired power installed capacity, and calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year and the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region based on the required power generation of all coal-fired power plants; S3: Determine whether the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planning year meet the carbon emission constraints, and determine whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the coal-fired power utilization hours constraints; if both are met, the initial new coal-fired power installed capacity will be used as the maximum value of the new coal-fired power installed capacity in the planning year, and jump to S5; otherwise, enter S4; S4. On the basis of ensuring the balance of electricity and power, if the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year do not meet the carbon emission constraints, then introduce electricity from outside the region; if the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region do not meet the utilization hours constraints of coal-fired power, then reduce the scale of new coal-fired power installed capacity until both are met, thereby obtaining the maximum value of new coal-fired power installed capacity in the planned year; S5. Repeat S1 to S4 until the maximum value of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity in all planning years within the planning interval is obtained, and the maximum value is selected from the maximum value of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity in each planning year as the peak installed capacity scale in the planning interval.

2. The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation according to claim 1, characterized in that: The S1 specifically includes the following steps: S11. Obtain the existing and planned installed capacity of various power sources in the region, the output coefficients of various power sources, the planned annual load forecast results, the planned annual electricity forecast results, and the planned annual carbon emission constraint forecast results; S12. Using the load forecast results for the planned year, the output coefficients of various power sources, and the installed capacity of various power sources, the power balance calculation for the planned year is performed in accordance with the typical large load method to obtain the total additional demand for supporting power sources in the planned year; The typical heavy load mode is the mode with the largest load; S13. Determine the initial scale of new coal-fired power generation capacity based on the total additional demand for supporting power sources in the planned year , and use this as scenario 1; the initial new coal-fired power capacity The details are as follows: ； in, Represents the total new demand for supporting power supply in the planned year.

3. The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation according to claim 2, characterized in that: The calculation formula for the total additional demand for supporting power supply in the planned year in S1 is as follows: ； in, is the installed capacity of hydropower; The scale of coal-fired power generation capacity has been determined; is the scale of wind power installed capacity; is the scale of photovoltaic installed capacity; is the biomass installed capacity; is the scale of gas-fired power generation capacity; is the installed capacity of energy storage; The scale of out-of-region electricity supply has been clearly identified; is the maximum load; is the hydropower output coefficient; is the wind power output coefficient; is the photovoltaic output coefficient; is the biomass output coefficient; is the energy storage output coefficient; is the power output coefficient from outside the region; is the load factor.

4. The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation according to claim 3, characterized in that: The S2 specifically includes the following steps: S21. Calculate the initial scale of new coal-fired power generation capacity The amount of electricity required for all coal-fired power plants ; All coal-fired power generation required The calculation formula is as follows: ； in, Provide annual electricity forecast results for regional planning; The number of hours of hydropower installed capacity utilization; The number of hours of wind power installed capacity utilization; The number of hours of photovoltaic installation utilization; The number of hours of biomass installed capacity utilization; The number of hours for energy storage utilization; It is the utilization hours of gas-fired power generation; The number of hours of electricity usage from outside the district; S22, based on the required power generation of all coal-fired power plants Calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year , the calculation formula is as follows: ； in, is the carbon emission coefficient of coal-fired power generation; is the carbon emission coefficient of gas-fired power generation; is the carbon emission coefficient of electricity from outside the region; Carbon emissions in the non-electric energy sector in the region include carbon emissions from non-electric coal, carbon emissions from oil consumption, and carbon emissions from non-electric natural gas consumption in the region; S23, based on the required power generation of all coal-fired power plants , Initial new coal-fired power capacity Calculate the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region , the calculation formula is as follows: ； in, The scale of coal-fired power installed capacity has been clearly defined.

5. The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation according to claim 4, characterized in that: The S3 specifically includes the following steps: S31. Calculate the break-even point of utilization hours under the condition of meeting the benchmark rate of return of coal-fired power enterprises; S32. Determine the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year Whether the carbon emission constraints are met. The carbon emission constraints are as follows: ； in, The carbon emission constraint prediction result for the planned year obtained in S1; S33. Determine whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the coal-fired power utilization hours constraint. The coal-fired power utilization hours constraint is as follows: ； in, To meet the break-even point of utilization hours under the benchmark rate of return of coal-fired power enterprises; S34: If both the carbon emission constraint and the coal-fired power utilization hours constraint are met, the initial new coal-fired power installed capacity will be used as the maximum new coal-fired power installed capacity in the planning year, and jump to S5; otherwise, enter S4.

6. The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation according to claim 5, characterized in that: The calculation formula for the break-even point of utilization hours in S31 under the condition of meeting the benchmark rate of return of coal-fired power enterprises is as follows: ； in, It is the benchmark rate of return for coal-fired power companies; is the annualized value of fixed cost; R is the annual value of coal-fired power capacity price; P is the coal-fired power price; is the operation and maintenance cost per unit of electricity; The tax and surcharge per unit of electricity; The carbon emission cost per unit of electricity.

7. The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation according to claim 6, characterized in that: The S4 specifically includes the following steps: S41, judging whether the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year meet the carbon emission constraints, if yes, jumping to S45; otherwise, entering S42; S42. Initial new coal-fired power generation capacity Based on the introduction of new external power scale , taking this as scenario 2, under the premise of meeting the power balance, calculate the required coal-fired power generation in scenario 2 , Scenario 2: Total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year , Average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 2 ; S43. Determine the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year of scenario 2 Whether the carbon emission constraints are met and the average utilization hours of coal power in the region in scenario 2 are determined Whether the coal power utilization hours constraint is met; if both are met, then go to S44; otherwise, loop from S42 to S43 until both the carbon emission constraint and the coal power utilization hours constraint are met; The carbon emission constraint in S43 is expressed by the following formula: ； The coal power utilization hours constraint in S43 is expressed by the formula as follows: ； S44, judging whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the utilization hours constraint of coal-fired power. If so, jump to S5; otherwise, go to S45; S45. Initial scale of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity On the basis of reducing the scale of new coal-fired power generation, and introducing new scale of power from outside the region , taking this as scenario three; under the premise of meeting the power balance, calculate the required coal-fired power generation of scenario three , Scenario 3: Total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year , Average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 3 ; S46. Determine the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year of scenario 2 Whether the carbon emission constraints are met, determine the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 3 Whether the coal power utilization hours constraint is met, if both are met, jump to S5, otherwise loop S45 to S46 until both are met; The carbon emission constraint in S46 is expressed by the following formula: ； The coal power utilization hours constraint in S46 is expressed by the formula as follows: 。 8. The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation according to claim 7, characterized in that: The S42 specifically includes the following steps: S421. Initial scale of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity Based on the introduction of new external power scale , thus we get scene 2; S422. Calculate the required coal-fired power generation in scenario 2 on the premise of meeting the power and electricity balance requirement. , where the power and electricity balance is expressed by the formula as follows: ； Required power generation of coal-fired power in scenario 2 The calculation formula is as follows: ； S423, then calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year of scenario 2 , as follows: ； S424. Calculate the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 2 , as follows: 。 9. The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation according to claim 8, characterized in that: The S45 specifically includes the following steps: S451. Initial scale of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity On the basis of reducing the scale of new coal-fired power generation, and introducing new scale of power from outside the region , using this as scenario three; S452. Calculate the required coal-fired power generation in scenario 3 on the premise of meeting the power and electricity balance requirement. , where the power quantity in S452 is as follows: ； S453. Calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year for scenario 3 , Average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 3 , where the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario three The calculation formula is as follows: 。 10. A coal-fired power peak installed capacity calculation system, comprising a computer device, characterized in that: The computer device is programmed or configured to execute the method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation as described in any one of claims 1 to 9.

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