Calculation Method and System for Peak Installed Capacity of Coal-Fired Power in Power System

Abstract

A calculation method and system for the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power in the power system. The method includes: 1. Formulating the initial newly added installed capacity of coal-fired power; 2. Calculating the average utilization hours of coal-fired power; 3. Judging whether the carbon emission constraint and the utilization hours constraint of coal-fired power are satisfied. If both are satisfied, the initial newly added installed capacity of coal-fired power is taken as the maximum newly added installed capacity of coal-fired power in the planned year, and jump to 5; otherwise, enter 4; 4. If the carbon emission constraint is not satisfied, introduce power from other regions. If the utilization hours constraint of coal-fired power is not satisfied, reduce the newly added installed capacity of coal-fired power until both are satisfied, so as to obtain the maximum newly added installed capacity of coal-fired power in the planned year; 5. Repeat 1 to 4, and select the maximum value from the maximum newly added installed capacity of coal-fired power in each planned year as the peak installed capacity within the planned interval. The present invention can determine the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power while ensuring multiple indicators such as safety and greenness, and provide a scientific basis for the power source planning of the power system.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power system planning, and particularly relates to a method and system for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power for a power system. Background Art

[0002] At present, the power source planning of coal-fired power mainly focuses on the single-dimensional assessment of power and electricity balance, which is difficult to apply when considering comprehensive factors such as carbon emission constraints and the economic efficiency of coal-fired power enterprises in a new power system. Summary of the Invention

[0003] The present invention provides a method and system for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power for a power system to solve the technical problems mentioned in the background art.

[0004] To achieve the above object, the technical solution of the present invention is realized as follows:

[0005] The present invention provides a method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power for a power system, including the following steps:

[0006] S1. Obtain the installed capacity of various existing and planned power sources in the region, the output coefficients of various power sources, the predicted results of the load and electricity consumption in the planned year, and the predicted results of the carbon emission constraints in the planned year. By using the obtained data and adopting the typical large load mode, perform power and electricity balance calculations for the planned year to obtain the total new demand for supporting power sources in the planned year, and determine the initial new installed capacity of coal-fired power based on the total new demand for supporting power sources in the planned year;

[0007] S2. Calculate the required power generation of all coal-fired power under the initial new installed capacity of coal-fired power, and calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy field in the planned year and the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region based on the required power generation of all coal-fired power;

[0008] S3. Judge whether the total carbon emissions in the energy field in the planned year meet the carbon emission constraints, and judge whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the constraints of the utilization hours of coal-fired power; if both are satisfied, take the initial new installed capacity of coal-fired power as the maximum new installed capacity of coal-fired power in the planned year, and jump to S5; otherwise, enter S4;

[0009] S4. On the basis of ensuring power and electricity balance, if the total carbon emissions in the energy field in the planned year do not meet the carbon emission constraints, introduce power from other regions; if the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region do not meet the constraints of the utilization hours of coal-fired power, reduce the new installed capacity of coal-fired power until both are satisfied, so as to obtain the maximum new installed capacity of coal-fired power in the planned year;

[0010] S5. Loop through S1 to S4 until the maximum value of the newly added coal-fired power installed capacity for all planned years within the planned interval is obtained. Select the maximum value from the maximum values of the newly added coal-fired power installed capacity for each planned year as the peak installed capacity scale within the planned interval.

[0011] Further, S1 specifically includes the following steps:

[0012] S11. Obtain the installed capacity scales of various existing and planned power sources in the region, the newly built power projects that have been determined, the output coefficients of various power sources, the load forecast results for the planned years, the electricity quantity forecast results for the planned years, and the carbon emission constraint forecast results for the planned years;

[0013] S12. Use the load forecast results for the planned years, the output coefficients of various power sources, and the installed capacity scales of various power sources to perform power and electricity balance calculations for the planned years according to the typical large load pattern, and obtain the total new demand for supporting power sources in the planned years; the typical large load pattern is the pattern with the largest load;

[0014] S13. Determine the initial newly added coal-fired power installed capacity based on the total new demand for supporting power sources in the planned years , and use this as Scenario 1; the initial newly added coal-fired power installed capacity is specifically as follows:

[0015] ;

[0016] Among them, represents the total new demand for supporting power sources in the planned years.

[0017] Further, the specific calculation formula for the total new demand for supporting power sources in S1 is as follows:

[0018] ;

[0019] Among them, is the installed capacity of hydropower; is the installed capacity of coal-fired power that has been determined; is the installed capacity of wind power; is the installed capacity of photovoltaic power; is the installed capacity of biomass; is the installed capacity of gas-fired power; is the installed capacity of energy storage; is the scale of externally supplied power from other regions that has been determined; is the maximum load;

[0020] is the output coefficient of hydropower; is the output coefficient of wind power; is the output coefficient of photovoltaic power; is the output coefficient of biomass; is the energy storage output coefficient; is the power output coefficient from outside the region; is the load factor.

[0021] Furthermore, the S2 specifically includes the following steps:

[0022] S21. Calculate the initial scale of new coal-fired power generation capacity The amount of electricity required for all coal-fired power plants ; All coal-fired power generation required The calculation formula is as follows:

[0023] ;

[0024] in, Provide annual electricity forecast results for regional planning; The number of hours of hydropower installed capacity utilization; The number of hours of wind power installed capacity utilization; The number of hours of photovoltaic installation utilization; The number of hours of biomass installed capacity utilization; The number of hours for energy storage utilization; It is the utilization hours of gas-fired power generation; The number of hours of electricity usage from outside the district;

[0025] S22, based on the required power generation of all coal-fired power plants Calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year , the calculation formula is as follows:

[0026] ;

[0027] in, is the carbon emission coefficient of coal-fired power generation; is the carbon emission coefficient of gas-fired power generation; is the carbon emission coefficient of electricity from outside the region; Carbon emissions in the non-electric energy sector in the region include carbon emissions from non-electric coal, carbon emissions from oil consumption, and carbon emissions from non-electric natural gas consumption in the region;

[0028] S23, based on the required power generation of all coal-fired power plants , Initial new coal-fired power capacity Calculate the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region , the calculation formula is as follows:

[0029] ;

[0030] in, The scale of coal-fired power installed capacity has been clearly defined.

[0031] Furthermore, S3 specifically includes the following steps:

[0032] S31. Calculate the break-even point of utilization hours under the condition of meeting the benchmark rate of return of coal-fired power enterprises;

[0033] S32. Judge whether the total carbon emissions in the energy field in the planned year meet the carbon emission constraints, and the carbon emission constraints are specifically as follows:

[0034] ;

[0035] Among them, is the predicted result of the carbon emission constraint in the planned year obtained in S1;

[0036] S33. Judge whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the constraints of coal-fired power utilization hours, and the constraints of coal-fired power utilization hours are specifically as follows:

[0037] ;

[0038] Among them, is the break-even point of utilization hours under the condition of meeting the benchmark rate of return of coal-fired power enterprises;

[0039] S34. If both the carbon emission constraint and the coal-fired power utilization hour constraint are met, take the initial newly added coal-fired power installed capacity as the maximum value of the newly added coal-fired power installed capacity in the planned year, and jump to S5; otherwise, enter S4.

[0040] Furthermore, the specific calculation formula of the break-even point of utilization hours under the condition of meeting the benchmark rate of return of coal-fired power enterprises in S31 is specifically as follows:

[0041] ;

[0042] Among them, is the benchmark rate of return of coal-fired power enterprises; is the annualized value of fixed costs; R is the annual value of the coal-fired power capacity price; P is the coal-fired power price; is the operation and maintenance cost per unit of electricity; is the tax and surcharge per unit of electricity; is the carbon emission cost per unit of electricity.

[0043] Furthermore, S4 specifically includes the following steps:

[0044] S41. Judge whether the total carbon emissions in the energy field in the planned year meet the carbon emission constraints. If so, jump to S44; otherwise, enter S42;

[0045] S42. Among the initial newly added coal-fired power installed capacity Introduce the scale of newly added external power incoming to the area on the basis of , taking this as Scenario 2. On the premise of meeting the power and electricity balance, calculate the required power generation of coal-fired power in Scenario 2 , the total carbon emissions in the energy field in the planned year of Scenario 2 , the average utilization hours of coal-fired power within the region in Scenario 2 ;

[0046] S43. Judge whether the total carbon emissions in the energy field in the planned year of Scenario 2 meet the carbon emission constraint, and judge whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power within the region in Scenario 2 meet the constraint on the utilization hours of coal-fired power; if both are satisfied, enter S44; otherwise, loop from S42 to S43 until both the carbon emission constraint and the constraint on the utilization hours of coal-fired power are satisfied;

[0047] Among them, the carbon emission constraint in S43 is expressed by the formula as follows:

[0048] ;

[0049] The constraint on the utilization hours of coal-fired power in S43 is expressed by the formula as follows:

[0050] ;

[0051] S44. Judge whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power within the region meet the constraint on the utilization hours of coal-fired power. If it is satisfied, jump to S5; otherwise, enter S45;

[0052] S45. Reduce the newly added coal-fired power installed capacity on the basis of the initial newly added coal-fired power installed capacity , and introduce the scale of newly added external power incoming to the area , taking this as Scenario 3; on the premise of meeting the power and electricity balance, calculate the required power generation of coal-fired power in Scenario 3 , the total carbon emissions in the energy field in the planned year of Scenario 3 , the average utilization hours of coal-fired power within the region in Scenario 3 ;

[0053] S46. Judge whether the total carbon emissions in the energy field in the planned year of Scenario 2 meet the carbon emission constraint, judge whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power within the region in Scenario 3 meet the constraint on the utilization hours of coal-fired power. If both are satisfied, jump to S5; otherwise, loop from S45 to S46 until both are satisfied;

[0054] Among them, the carbon emission constraint in S46 is expressed by the formula as follows:

[0055] ;

[0056] The coal power utilization hours constraint in S46 is expressed by the following formula:

[0057] .

[0058] Furthermore, S42 specifically includes the following steps:

[0059] S421. On the basis of the initial newly added coal power installed capacity , introduce the newly added external power scale to obtain Scenario 2;

[0060] S422. On the premise of meeting the power and electricity balance, calculate the required power generation of coal power in Scenario 2 , where the power and electricity balance is expressed by the following formula:

[0061] ;

[0062] The formula for calculating the required power generation of coal power in Scenario 2 is specifically as follows:

[0063] ;

[0064] S423. Then calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy field in the planned year of Scenario 2 , specifically as follows: ;

[0065] S424. Calculate the average utilization hours of in-region coal power in Scenario 2 , specifically as follows:

[0066] .

[0067] Furthermore, S45 specifically includes the following steps:

[0068] S451. On the basis of the initial newly added coal power installed capacity , reduce the newly added coal power installed capacity and introduce the newly added external power scale as Scenario 3;

[0069] S452. On the premise of meeting the power and electricity balance, calculate the required power generation of coal power in Scenario 3 , where the power and electricity in S452 is specifically as follows:

[0070] ;

[0071] Among them, is the newly added coal power installed capacity in Scenario 3;

[0072] S453. Calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy field in the planned year for Scenario 3 respectively and the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region for Scenario 3 wherein, the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region for Scenario 3 The specific calculation formula is as follows:

[0073] .

[0074] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a system for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power, including a computer device, which is programmed or configured to execute the above method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power.

[0075] Advantages of the present invention:

[0076] The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power disclosed by the present invention, while ensuring the power and electricity supply, takes into account the carbon emission constraints in the energy field and also considers the constraints of the utilization hours of coal-fired power, which is the requirement for the economic efficiency of coal-fired power enterprises. Then, the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power is obtained, which can be used to guide the medium- and long-term development of supporting power sources in energy-deficient regions to ensure that the power system meets the load supply demand and the economic efficiency of power sources, has guiding significance for power source planning, is of great significance for the development of new power systems and the construction of new energy systems, and also provides a scientific basis for the power source planning of new power systems under the "dual carbon" goal. Description of the Drawings

[0077] Figure 1 is the flowchart of the method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power in the present invention;

[0078] Figure 2 is the graph of the required power generation and carbon emission data of coal-fired power under Scenario 1 in 2030 in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0079] Figure 3 is the graph of the utilization hours data of coal-fired power under Scenario 1 in 2030 in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0080] Figure 4 is the graph of the required power generation and carbon emission data of coal-fired power under Scenario 2 in 2030 in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0081] Figure 5 is the graph of the utilization hours data of coal-fired power under Scenario 2 in 2030 in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0082] Figure 6 is the graph of the required power generation and carbon emission data of coal-fired power under Scenario 3 in 2030 in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0083] Figure 7 This is the data graph of the utilization hours of coal-fired power in Scenario 3 corresponding to 2030 in the embodiments of the present invention;

[0084] Figure 8 This is the data graph of the required power generation and carbon emissions of coal-fired power in Scenario 1 corresponding to 2035 in the embodiments of the present invention;

[0085] Figure 9 This is the data graph of the utilization hours of coal-fired power in Scenario 1 corresponding to 2035 in the embodiments of the present invention;

[0086] Figure 10 This is the data graph of the required power generation and carbon emissions of coal-fired power in Scenario 2 corresponding to 2035 in the embodiments of the present invention;

[0087] Figure 11 This is the data graph of the utilization hours of coal-fired power in Scenario 2 corresponding to 2035 in the embodiments of the present invention;

[0088] Figure 12 This is the data graph of the required power generation and carbon emissions of coal-fired power in Scenario 3 corresponding to 2035 in the embodiments of the present invention;

[0089] Figure 13 This is the data graph of the utilization hours of coal-fired power in Scenario 3 corresponding to 2035 in the embodiments of the present invention. Detailed implementation manners

[0090] To facilitate the understanding of the present invention, the present invention will be described more comprehensively below with reference to the relevant drawings. The preferred embodiments of the present invention are shown in the drawings. However, the present invention can be implemented in many other different forms and is not limited to the embodiments described herein. On the contrary, the purpose of providing these embodiments is to make the understanding of the disclosure of the present invention more thorough and comprehensive.

[0091] Referring to Figure 1 , the embodiments of the present application provide a method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power for a power system, including the following steps:

[0092] S1. Obtain the installed capacity of various existing and planned power sources in the region, the newly built power source projects that have been determined, the output coefficients of various power sources, the load and power prediction results for the planned year, and the predicted results of the carbon emission constraints for the planned year. With the help of the obtained data and using the typical large load mode, perform power and electricity balance calculations for the planned year to obtain the total new demand for supporting power sources in the planned year, and determine the initial new installed capacity of coal-fired power according to the total new demand for supporting power sources in the planned year;

[0093] S2. Calculate the required power generation of all coal-fired power under the initial new installed capacity of coal-fired power, and calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy field for the planned year and the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region according to the required power generation of all coal-fired power;

[0094] S3. Determine whether the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year meet the carbon emission constraints, and determine whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the constraints on the utilization hours of coal-fired power; if both are met, take the initial newly added coal-fired power installed capacity as the maximum newly added coal-fired power installed capacity in the planned year, and jump to S5; otherwise, enter S4;

[0095] S4. On the basis of ensuring power and electricity balance, if the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year do not meet the carbon emission constraints, introduce power from other regions; if the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region do not meet the constraints on the utilization hours of coal-fired power, reduce the newly added coal-fired power installed capacity until both are met, so as to obtain the maximum newly added coal-fired power installed capacity in the planned year;

[0096] S5. Loop through S1 to S4 until the maximum newly added coal-fired power installed capacity for all planned years within the planned interval is obtained, and select the maximum value from the maximum newly added coal-fired power installed capacity for each planned year as the peak installed capacity within the planned interval.

[0097] The calculation method for the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power disclosed in the present invention takes into account the carbon emission constraints in the energy sector and the constraints on the utilization hours of coal-fired power while ensuring power and electricity supply. The constraints on the utilization hours of coal-fired power are the requirements for the economic efficiency of coal-fired power enterprises. Then, the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power is obtained, which can be used to guide the medium- and long-term development of supporting power sources in energy-deficient regions to ensure that the power system meets the load supply demand and the economic efficiency of power sources. It has guiding significance for power source planning, is of great significance for the development of a new power system and the construction of a new energy system, and also provides a scientific basis for the power source planning of a new power system under the "dual carbon" goal.

[0098] In some embodiments, S1 specifically includes the following steps:

[0099] S11. Obtain the installed capacity of various existing and planned power sources in the region, newly built power projects that have been identified, the output coefficients of various power sources, the load forecast results for the planned year, the electricity quantity forecast results for the planned year, and the carbon emission constraint forecast results for the planned year;

[0100] S12. Use the load forecast results for the planned year, the output coefficients of various power sources, and the installed capacity of various power sources to calculate the total new demand for supporting power sources in the planned year according to the typical large-load mode; the typical large-load mode is the mode with the largest load;

[0101] S13. Determine the initial newly added coal-fired power installed capacity based on the total new demand for supporting power sources in the planned year and use this as Scenario 1; the initial newly added coal-fired power installed capacity is specifically as follows:

[0102] ;

[0103] Among them, represents the total new demand for supporting power sources in the planned year.

[0104] In some embodiments, the specific calculation formula for the total new demand for supporting power sources in the planned year in S1 is as follows:

[0105] ;

[0106] Among them, is the installed capacity of hydropower; is the installed capacity of coal-fired power that has been determined; is the installed capacity of wind power; is the installed capacity of photovoltaic power; is the installed capacity of biomass; is the installed capacity of gas-fired power; is the installed capacity of energy storage; is the scale of externally-supplied power from other regions that has been determined; is the maximum load;

[0107] is the hydropower output coefficient; is the wind power output coefficient; is the photovoltaic power output coefficient; is the biomass power output coefficient; is the energy storage power output coefficient; is the externally-supplied power output coefficient from other regions; is the load coefficient.

[0108] In some embodiments, S2 specifically includes the following steps:

[0109] S21. Calculate the total power generation required for all coal-fired power under the initial new installed capacity of coal-fired power ; The specific calculation formula for the total power generation required for all coal-fired power is as follows: ;

[0110] ;

[0111] Among them, is the regional power generation forecast result for the planned year; is the utilization hours of hydropower installed capacity; is the utilization hours of wind power installed capacity; is the utilization hours of photovoltaic power installed capacity; is the utilization hours of biomass installed capacity; is the utilization hours of energy storage; is the utilization hours of gas-fired power installed capacity; is the utilization hours of electricity from outside the region;

[0112] S22. Based on the required electricity generation of all coal-fired power Calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy field for the planned year , and the specific calculation formula is as follows:

[0113] ;

[0114] Among them, is the carbon emission coefficient of coal-fired power generation; is the carbon emission coefficient of gas-fired power generation; is the carbon emission coefficient of electricity from outside the region; is the carbon emissions in the non-electric energy field within the region. The carbon emissions in the non-electric energy field within the region include the carbon emissions of non-electric coal, oil consumption, and non-electric natural gas consumption within the region;

[0115] S23. Based on the required electricity generation of all coal-fired power and the initial new coal-fired power installed capacity Calculate the average utilization hours of coal-fired power within the region , and the specific calculation formula is as follows:

[0116] ;

[0117] Among them, is the determined coal-fired power installed capacity.

[0118] In some embodiments, S3 specifically includes the following steps:

[0119] S31. Calculate the break-even point of utilization hours under the condition of meeting the benchmark rate of return of coal-fired power enterprises;

[0120] S32. Judge whether the total carbon emissions in the energy field for the planned year meet the carbon emission constraints. The carbon emission constraints are specifically as follows:

[0121] ;

[0122] Among them, is the predicted result of the carbon emission constraint for the planned year obtained in S1;

[0123] S33. Judge whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power within the region meet the utilization hours constraints of coal-fired power. The utilization hours constraints of coal-fired power are specifically as follows:

[0124] ;

[0125] Among them, is the break-even point of utilization hours under the condition of meeting the benchmark rate of return of coal-fired power enterprises;

[0126] S34. If both the carbon emission constraint and the coal power utilization hours constraint are satisfied, take the initial newly added coal power installed capacity as the maximum value of the newly added coal power installed capacity in the planned year and jump to S5; otherwise, enter S4.

[0127] In some embodiments, the specific calculation formula of the break-even point of utilization hours under the condition of meeting the benchmark rate of return of coal power enterprises in S31 is as follows:

[0128] ;

[0129] Among them, is the benchmark rate of return of coal power enterprises; is the annualized value of fixed costs; R is the annualized value of coal power capacity price; P is the coal power price; is the operation and maintenance cost per unit of electricity; is the tax and surcharge per unit of electricity; is the carbon emission cost per unit of electricity.

[0130] In some embodiments, S4 specifically includes the following steps:

[0131] S41. Judge whether the total carbon emissions in the energy field of the planned year meet the carbon emission constraint. If it meets, jump to S44; otherwise, enter S42;

[0132] S42. On the basis of the initial newly added coal power installed capacity , introduce the newly added external power scale in the new area as Scenario 2. On the premise of meeting the power and electricity balance, calculate the required power generation of coal power in Scenario 2 , the total carbon emissions in the energy field of the planned year in Scenario 2 , and the average utilization hours of in-region coal power in Scenario 2 ;

[0133] S43. Judge whether the total carbon emissions in the energy field of the planned year in Scenario 2 meet the carbon emission constraint, and judge whether the average utilization hours of in-region coal power in Scenario 2 meet the coal power utilization hours constraint; if both meet, enter S44; otherwise, loop from S42 to S43 until both the carbon emission constraint and the coal power utilization hours constraint are met;

[0134] Among them, the carbon emission constraint in S43 is specifically expressed by the formula as follows:

[0135] ;

[0136] The coal power utilization hours constraint in S43 is specifically expressed by the formula as follows:

[0137] ;

[0138] S44. Determine whether the average utilization hours of coal power in the area meet the coal power utilization hours constraint. If they meet, jump to S5; otherwise, enter S45.

[0139] S45. On the basis of the initial newly added coal power installed capacity , reduce the newly added coal power installed capacity and introduce the newly added external power scale to be used as Scenario 3. On the premise of meeting the power and electricity balance, calculate the required power generation of coal power in Scenario 3 , the total carbon emissions in the energy field in the planned year of Scenario 3 , and the average utilization hours of coal power in the area of Scenario 3 ;

[0140] S46. Determine whether the total carbon emissions in the energy field in the planned year of Scenario 2 meet the carbon emissions constraint, and determine whether the average utilization hours of coal power in the area of Scenario 3 meet the coal power utilization hours constraint. If both meet, jump to S5; otherwise, loop from S45 to S46 until both meet;

[0141] Among them, the carbon emissions constraint in S46 is specifically expressed by the formula as follows:

[0142] ;

[0143] The coal power utilization hours constraint in S46 is specifically expressed by the formula as follows:

[0144] .

[0145] In some embodiments, S42 specifically includes the following steps:

[0146] S421. On the basis of the initial newly added coal power installed capacity , introduce the newly added external power scale to obtain Scenario 2;

[0147] S422. On the premise of meeting the power and electricity balance, calculate the required power generation of coal power in Scenario 2 , where the power and electricity balance is specifically expressed by the formula as follows:

[0148] ;

[0149] The calculation formula for the required power generation of coal power in Scenario 2 is specifically as follows:

[0150] ;

[0151] S423. Then calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year for Scenario 2 , which is specifically as follows:

[0152] ;

[0153] S424. Calculate the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region for Scenario 2 , which is specifically as follows:

[0154] .

[0155] In some embodiments, S45 specifically includes the following steps:

[0156] S451. On the basis of the initial newly added coal-fired power installed capacity , reduce the newly added coal-fired power installed capacity and introduce the newly added external power input scale , and use this as Scenario 3;

[0157] S452. On the premise of meeting the power and electricity balance, calculate the required power generation of coal-fired power for Scenario 3 , where the power and electricity in S452 are specifically as follows:

[0158] ;

[0159] Among them, is the newly added coal-fired power installed capacity for Scenario 3;

[0160] S453. Calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year for Scenario 3 , the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region for Scenario 3 ;

[0161] Among them, the required power generation of coal-fired power for Scenario 3 has the following specific calculation formula:

[0162] ;

[0163] The total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year for Scenario 3 has the following specific calculation formula:

[0164] ;

[0165] The average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region for Scenario 3 has the following specific calculation formula:

[0166] .

[0167] For the sake of easy understanding, two examples are used for elaboration and explanation;

[0168] Example 1:

[0169] Take the coal-fired power peak installed capacity configuration in a certain province in Central China in 2030 as an example. The current installed capacity of power sources in this region is 26 million kilowatts, and 10 million kilowatts of coal-fired power installed capacity has been planned for construction.

[0170] The carbon emission constraint in the energy field of this region in 2030 is 340 million, and the average utilization hours of coal-fired power enterprises in the region to maintain economy is 2,700 hours.

[0171] Considering the installed capacity of various power sources in the current year, the load forecast in 2030 reaches 76 million kilowatts, and the power consumption forecast reaches 352 billion kWh. On the basis of considering the installed capacity of power sources that have been clearly planned to be put into operation, the total new demand for supporting power sources in 2030 reaches 10 million kilowatts.

[0172] On the basis of considering the existing and planned installed capacity of power sources, the total new demand for supporting power sources in 2030 reaches 10 million kilowatts. In the initial scenario (corresponding to Scenario 1 in the calculation method of coal-fired power peak installed capacity), considering adding 10 million kilowatts of coal-fired power installed capacity to fill the power and electricity gap, calculate that in this scenario, the coal-fired power carbon emission is 350 million tons, and the recent average utilization hours of coal-fired power in 2030 is about 2,900 hours. It is judged that the carbon emission in this scenario does not meet the carbon emission constraint, but the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the coal-fired power utilization hours constraint. Specific data can be seen in Figure 2 and Figure 3 .

[0173] To meet the requirements of carbon emission constraint, on the basis of this scenario, combined with Scenario 2 in the calculation method of coal-fired power peak installed capacity, add an additional 8 million kilowatts of power from other regions to the planned area. Considering adding 10 million kilowatts of coal-fired power installed capacity + an additional 8 million kilowatts of power from other regions to fill the power and electricity gap, calculate that in this scenario, the coal-fired power carbon emission can be controlled below 340 million tons, and the recent average utilization hours of coal-fired power in 2030 is about 2,300 hours. It is judged that the carbon emission in this scenario can meet the carbon emission constraint, but the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region do not meet the coal-fired power utilization hours constraint. Specific data can be seen in Figure 4 and Figure 5 .

[0174] To meet the economic requirements of coal-fired power enterprises, based on Scenario 2 and combined with Scenario 3 in the calculation method of coal-fired power peak installed capacity, considering the addition of 6 million kilowatts of coal-fired power installed capacity and one 8-million-kilowatt external power input to fill the power and electricity gap in the planned area, it is calculated that under this scenario, the coal-fired power carbon emissions can be controlled below 340 million tons, and the recent average utilization hours of coal-fired power in 2030 are about 2,700 hours. It is judged that the carbon emissions under this scenario can meet the carbon emission constraints, and the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the constraints of coal-fired power utilization hours. The corresponding coal-fired power installed capacity is the maximum value of the coal-fired power installed capacity in this region in 2030. For specific data, please refer to Figure 6 and Figure 7 .

[0175] Based on the calculation results of the maximum coal-fired power installed capacity in 2030, it is obtained that the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power in this province is an increase of 6 million kilowatts on the basis of the existing power sources and the power sources that have been determined, and the corresponding coal-fired power installed capacity is 42 million kilowatts.

[0176] Case 2:

[0177] Taking a certain province in Central China and the peak installed capacity configuration of coal-fired power in 2035 as an example. The current installed capacity of power sources in this region is 26 million kilowatts, and 10 million kilowatts of coal-fired power installed capacity has been planned and constructed.

[0178] The carbon emission constraint in the energy field of this region in 2035 is 330 million tons. The average utilization hours of coal-fired power enterprises in the region to maintain economy are 2,700 hours.

[0179] Considering the installed capacity of various power sources in the current year, the load forecast in 2035 reaches 90 million kilowatts, and the electricity forecast reaches 415 billion kWh. At the same time, considering the installed capacity of the power sources that have been clearly planned to be put into operation, the total new demand for supporting power sources in 2035 reaches 16 million kilowatts.

[0180] Considering the installed capacity of the power sources that have been clearly planned to be put into operation, the total new demand for power supporting power sources in 2035 reaches 16 million kilowatts. Considering the calculation results of Case 1, in the case of adding 6 million kilowatts of coal-fired power and one external power input in 2030, there is still a new demand of 6 million kilowatts for supporting power sources to be filled in 2035. In the initial scenario (corresponding to Scenario 1 in the calculation method of coal-fired power peak installed capacity), considering the addition of 6 million kilowatts of coal-fired power installed capacity, it is calculated that under this scenario, the coal-fired power carbon emissions are 332 million tons, and the recent average utilization hours of coal-fired power in 2035 are about 2,700 hours. It is judged that the carbon emissions under this scenario do not meet the carbon emission constraints, and the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the constraints of coal-fired power utilization hours. For specific data, please refer to Figure 8 and Figure 9 .

[0181] To meet the requirements of carbon emissions, based on this scenario and combined with Scenario 2 in the calculation method of coal-fired power peak installed capacity, an additional external power supply is added to the planning area, that is, considering adding 6 million kilowatts of coal-fired power installed capacity + an 8 million kilowatt external power supply to fill the power and electricity gap. Calculate that in this scenario, the carbon emissions of coal-fired power can be controlled below 330 million tons, and the recent average utilization hours of coal-fired power in 2035 are about 2,200 hours. It is judged that the carbon emissions in this scenario can meet the carbon emission constraints, but the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region do not meet the constraints of coal-fired power utilization hours. Specific data can be found in Figure 10 and Figure 11 .

[0182] To meet the economic requirements of coal-fired power enterprises, based on Scenario 2 and combined with Scenario 3 in the calculation method of coal-fired power peak installed capacity, continuously reduce the coal-fired power installed capacity, considering an 8 million kilowatt external power supply + pumped storage installed capacity to fill the power and electricity gap. Calculate that in this scenario, the carbon emissions of coal-fired power can be controlled below 330 million tons, and the recent average utilization hours of coal-fired power in 2035 are about 2,700 hours. It is judged that the carbon emissions in this scenario can meet the carbon emission constraints, and the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the constraints of coal-fired power utilization hours. The corresponding coal-fired power installed capacity is 42 million kilowatts, which is the maximum value of the coal-fired power installed capacity in this region in 2035. Specific data can be found in Figure 12 and Figure 13 .

[0183] Based on the calculation results of the maximum coal-fired power installed capacity in 2035, it is concluded that the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power in this province is to add 6 million kilowatts on the basis of the existing power sources and the clearly defined power sources, and the total coal-fired power installed capacity reaches 42 million kilowatts.

[0184] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a calculation system for the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power, including a computer device, which is programmed or configured to execute the above calculation method for the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power.

[0185] As described above, the above are only specific embodiments of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art within the technical scope disclosed by the present invention can easily think of changes or substitutions, which should be covered within the protection scope of the present invention. Moreover, the technical solutions between the various embodiments of the present invention can be combined with each other, but it must be based on the realization by those of ordinary skill in the art. When the combination of technical solutions results in contradictions or cannot be realized, it should be considered that such a combination of technical solutions does not exist and is not within the protection scope required by the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention should be subject to the protection scope of the claims.

Claims

1. A method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power for power systems, characterized in that: The steps include: S1. Obtain the existing and planned installed capacity of various power sources in the region, various power output coefficients, planned annual load and power forecast results, and planned annual carbon emission constraint forecast results. Use the acquired data and adopt a typical large load method to calculate the power balance of the planned year, obtain the total additional demand for supporting power sources in the planned year, and formulate the initial additional coal-fired power installed capacity based on the total additional demand for supporting power sources in the planned year; the typical large load method is the method with the largest load; S2. Calculate the required power generation of all coal-fired power plants under the initial scale of newly added coal-fired power installed capacity, and calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year and the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region based on the required power generation of all coal-fired power plants; S3: Determine whether the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planning year meet the carbon emission constraints, and determine whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the coal-fired power utilization hours constraints; if both are met, the initial new coal-fired power installed capacity will be used as the maximum value of the new coal-fired power installed capacity in the planning year, and jump to S5; otherwise, enter S4; S4. On the basis of ensuring the balance of electricity and power, if the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year do not meet the carbon emission constraints, then introduce electricity from outside the region; if the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region do not meet the utilization hours constraints of coal-fired power, then reduce the scale of new coal-fired power installed capacity until both are met, thereby obtaining the maximum value of new coal-fired power installed capacity in the planned year; S5. Repeat S1 to S4 until the maximum value of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity in all planning years within the planning interval is obtained, and the maximum value is selected from the maximum value of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity in each planning year as the peak installed capacity scale in the planning interval.

2. The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation according to claim 1, characterized in that: The S1 specifically includes the following steps: S11. Obtain the existing and planned installed capacity of various power sources in the region, the output coefficients of various power sources, the planned annual load forecast results, the planned annual electricity forecast results, and the planned annual carbon emission constraint forecast results; S12. Using the load forecast results for the planned year, the output coefficients of various power sources, and the installed capacity of various power sources, the power balance calculation for the planned year is performed in accordance with the typical large load method to obtain the total additional demand for supporting power sources in the planned year; S13. Determine the initial scale of new coal-fired power generation capacity based on the total additional demand for supporting power sources in the planned year , and use this as scenario 1; the initial new coal-fired power capacity The details are as follows: ； in, Represents the total new demand for supporting power supply in the planned year.

3. The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation according to claim 2, characterized in that: The calculation formula for the total additional demand for supporting power supply in the planned year in S1 is as follows: ； in, is the installed capacity of hydropower; The scale of coal-fired power generation capacity has been determined; is the scale of wind power installed capacity; is the scale of photovoltaic installed capacity; is the biomass installed capacity; is the scale of gas-fired power generation capacity; is the installed capacity of energy storage; The scale of out-of-region electricity inflow has been clearly identified; is the maximum load; is the hydropower output coefficient; is the wind power output coefficient; is the photovoltaic output coefficient; is the biomass output coefficient; is the energy storage output coefficient; is the power output coefficient from outside the region; is the load factor.

4. The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation according to claim 3, characterized in that: The S2 specifically includes the following steps: S21. Calculate the initial scale of new coal-fired power generation capacity The amount of electricity required for all coal-fired power plants ; All coal-fired power generation required The calculation formula is as follows: ； in, Provide annual electricity forecast results for regional planning; The number of hours of hydropower installed capacity utilization; The number of hours of wind power installed capacity utilization; The number of hours of photovoltaic installation utilization; The number of hours of biomass installed capacity utilization; The number of hours for energy storage utilization; It is the utilization hours of gas-fired power generation; The number of hours of electricity usage from outside the district; S22, based on the required power generation of all coal-fired power plants Calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year , the calculation formula is as follows: ； in, is the carbon emission coefficient of coal-fired power generation; is the carbon emission coefficient of gas-fired power generation; is the carbon emission coefficient of electricity from outside the region; Carbon emissions in the non-electric energy sector in the region include carbon emissions from non-electric coal, carbon emissions from oil consumption, and carbon emissions from non-electric natural gas consumption in the region; S23, based on the required power generation of all coal-fired power plants , Initial new coal-fired power capacity Calculate the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region , the calculation formula is as follows: ； in, The scale of coal-fired power installed capacity has been clearly defined.

5. The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation according to claim 4, characterized in that: The S3 specifically includes the following steps: S31. Calculate the break-even point of utilization hours under the condition of meeting the benchmark rate of return of coal-fired power enterprises; S32. Determine the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year Whether the carbon emission constraints are met. The carbon emission constraints are as follows: ； in, The carbon emission constraint prediction result for the planned year obtained in S1; S33. Determine whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the coal-fired power utilization hours constraint. The coal-fired power utilization hours constraint is as follows: ； in, To meet the break-even point of utilization hours under the benchmark rate of return of coal-fired power enterprises; S34: If both the carbon emission constraint and the coal-fired power utilization hours constraint are met, the initial new coal-fired power installed capacity will be used as the maximum new coal-fired power installed capacity in the planning year, and jump to S5; otherwise, enter S4.

6. The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation according to claim 5, characterized in that: The calculation formula for the break-even point of utilization hours in S31 under the condition of meeting the benchmark rate of return of coal-fired power enterprises is as follows: ； in, It is the benchmark rate of return for coal-fired power companies; is the annualized value of fixed cost; R is the annual value of coal-fired power capacity price; P is the coal-fired power price; is the operation and maintenance cost per unit of electricity; The tax and surcharge per unit of electricity; The carbon emission cost per unit of electricity.

7. The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation according to claim 6, characterized in that: The S4 specifically includes the following steps: S41, judging whether the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year meet the carbon emission constraints, if yes, jumping to S44; otherwise, entering S42; S42. Initial new coal-fired power generation capacity Based on the introduction of new external power scale , taking this as scenario 2, under the premise of meeting the power balance, calculate the required coal-fired power generation in scenario 2 , Scenario 2: Total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year , Average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 2 ; S43. Determine the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year of scenario 2 Whether the carbon emission constraints are met and the average utilization hours of coal power in the region in scenario 2 are determined Whether the coal power utilization hours constraint is met; if both are met, then go to S44; otherwise, loop from S42 to S43 until both the carbon emission constraint and the coal power utilization hours constraint are met; The carbon emission constraint in S43 is expressed by the following formula: ； The coal power utilization hours constraint in S43 is expressed by the formula as follows: ； S44, judging whether the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region meet the utilization hours constraint of coal-fired power. If so, jump to S5; otherwise, go to S45; S45. Initial scale of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity On the basis of reducing the scale of new coal-fired power generation, and introducing new scale of power from outside the region , taking this as scenario three; under the premise of meeting the power balance, calculate the required coal-fired power generation of scenario three , Scenario 3: Total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year , Average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 3 ; S46. Determine the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year of scenario 2 Whether the carbon emission constraints are met, determine the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 3 Whether the coal power utilization hours constraint is met, if both are met, jump to S5, otherwise loop S45 to S46 until both are met; The carbon emission constraint in S46 is expressed by the following formula: ； The coal power utilization hours constraint in S46 is expressed by the formula as follows: 。 8. The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation according to claim 7, characterized in that: The S42 specifically includes the following steps: S421. Initial scale of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity Based on the introduction of new external power scale , thus we get scene 2; S422. Calculate the required coal-fired power generation in scenario 2 on the premise of meeting the power and electricity balance requirement. , where the power and electricity balance is expressed by the formula as follows: ； Required power generation of coal-fired power in scenario 2 The calculation formula is as follows: ； S423, then calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year of scenario 2 , as follows: ； S424. Calculate the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 2 , as follows: 。 9. The method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation according to claim 8, characterized in that: The S45 specifically includes the following steps: S451. Initial scale of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity On the basis of reducing the scale of new coal-fired power generation, and introducing new scale of power from outside the region , using this as scenario three; S452. Calculate the required coal-fired power generation in scenario 3 on the premise of meeting the power and electricity balance requirement. , where the power quantity in S452 is as follows: ； in, This is the scale of newly added coal-fired power generation capacity in scenario three; S453. Calculate the total carbon emissions in the energy sector in the planned year for scenario 3 , Average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario 3 , where the average utilization hours of coal-fired power in the region in scenario three The calculation formula is as follows: 。 10. A coal-fired power peak installed capacity calculation system, comprising a computer device, characterized in that: The computer device is programmed or configured to execute the method for calculating the peak installed capacity of coal-fired power generation as described in any one of claims 1 to 9.

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