Distribution network engineering operation safety risk dynamic quantitative evaluation method and system

Abstract

The invention relates to a distribution network engineering operation safety risk dynamic quantitative evaluation method and system. According to the dynamic quantitative evaluation method for the safety risk of the distribution network engineering operation, the risk probability value of a basic index, the risk probability value of an objective variable index and the risk probability value of a dynamic controllable index are determined by performing quantitative evaluation on inherent attribute information, operation scene information and field personnel violation information of the distribution network engineering operation; and the safety of the distribution network engineering operation is assessed through the risk probability value of the basic index, the risk probability value of the objective variable index, the risk probability value of the dynamic controllable index and the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation, so that the risk assessment can be expanded to the whole operation process and refined to the total operation factors; according to a typical operation scene, the comprehensiveness of risk assessment indexes is optimized, accurate evaluation and judgment of operation risks are realized, and the safety of an operation site is guaranteed.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of distribution network engineering construction, and in particular to a method and system for dynamically quantifying safety risk assessment of distribution network engineering operations. Background Art

[0002] The construction work of distribution network projects is huge in number, of many types and in a complex environment. It involves multi-professional collaborative work, special vehicle operations, etc. There are many risk factors at the work site and safety management is difficult. Once an accident occurs, the consequences are serious, often causing huge losses to "personnel, power grids, and equipment."

[0003] In order to fully guarantee the safety of on-site operations, the distribution network project has established a "five-level five-control" risk prevention and control system for production operations, classified the risks of various typical production operations, and clarified the differentiated control contents of each risk level operation in planning, data editing, on-the-job, on-site supervision, etc. Under the "five-level five-control" risk prevention and control system, the risk identification and measures formulation in the implementation of operations lack a comprehensive, objective, and universal guidance method, but are dominated by the management experience of the operators, making it difficult to achieve a comprehensive and objective evaluation of various risk factors and their risk levels on site, and failing to rigidly and effectively embed measures such as "reducing first and then controlling" into the formulation of control measures, which has certain limitations.

[0004] At present, there are not many quantitative analyses of the risks of distribution network construction operations, and none of them have been refined to the level of on-site operation implementation. By conducting accurate and comprehensive identification and analysis of all elements of the "man-machine-material-method-environment" operation, effective guidance for specific operations can be achieved. Summary of the invention

[0005] In order to solve the problems existing in the prior art, the present invention provides a method for dynamically quantifying the safety risk of distribution network engineering operations, the method comprising:

[0006] Obtain inherent attribute information, operation scenario information, and on-site personnel violation information of distribution network engineering operations;

[0007] Based on the inherent attribute information and the set basic class indicators, a risk quantitative assessment is performed on the inherent attribute information to determine the risk probability value of the basic class indicators;

[0008] Based on the operation scene information and the set objective variable indicators, a risk quantitative assessment is performed on the operation scene information to determine the risk probability value of the objective variable indicators;

[0009] Based on the on-site personnel violation information and the set dynamic controllable indicators, a risk quantitative assessment of the on-site personnel violation information is performed to determine the risk probability value of the dynamic controllable indicators;

[0010] Based on the risk probability values ​​of the basic indicators, the risk probability values ​​of the objective variable indicators, the risk probability values ​​of the dynamically controllable indicators, and the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation, the safety risk of the distribution network engineering operation is evaluated.

[0011] Optionally, the inherent attributes of the distribution network engineering operation include the operation risk level, the number of high-risk processes, the total duration of high-risk processes and the number of high-risk processes in parallel;

[0012] The step of quantitatively assessing the risk of the inherent attribute information based on the inherent attribute information and the set basic class indicators to determine the risk probability value of the basic class indicators includes:

[0013] Based on the operation risk level, a risk level quantification processing formula is used to calculate the operation risk quantification basic value corresponding to the operation risk level;

[0014] Based on the number of high-risk processes, the total duration of the high-risk processes, and the number of high-risk processes in parallel, respectively obtain a risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes, a risk value corresponding to the total duration of the high-risk processes, and a risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes in parallel;

[0015] The risk probability value of the basic indicator is obtained by multiplying the quantitative basic value of the operation risk, the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes, the risk value corresponding to the total duration of the high-risk processes, and the risk value corresponding to the number of parallel high-risk processes.

[0016] Optionally, based on the number of high-risk processes, the total duration of the high-risk processes and the number of high-risk processes in parallel, respectively obtaining the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes, the risk value corresponding to the total duration of the high-risk processes and the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes in parallel, comprises:

[0017] Based on the number of high-risk processes, obtaining the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes from the corresponding relationship between the number of high-risk processes and the risk value;

[0018] Based on the total duration of the high-risk process, obtaining the risk value corresponding to the total duration of the high-risk process from the corresponding relationship between the total duration of the high-risk process and the risk value;

[0019] Based on the number of parallel processes with high risks, a risk value corresponding to the number of parallel processes with high risks is obtained from a corresponding relationship between the number of parallel processes with high risks and the risk value.

[0020] Optionally, the risk level quantification processing formula satisfies the following formula:

[0021]

[0022] Among them, i represents the operation risk level, n represents the nth process, and j represents the superposition value. It represents the quantitative basic value of the operation risk of the nth process with operation risk level i.

[0023] Optionally, the operation scene information includes special operation indicator information and multiple target natural environment information;

[0024] The risk quantitative assessment of the operation scene information based on the operation scene information and the set objective variable indicators to determine the risk probability value of the objective variable indicators includes:

[0025] Based on the special operation indicator information, determining the risk value corresponding to the special operation indicator information from the corresponding relationship between the special operation indicator and the risk value;

[0026] Based on the objective variable indicators, each natural environment information is classified into a level to obtain a risk level of each natural environment information;

[0027] Determine a target risk level for each target natural environment information from the risk level of each natural environment information;

[0028] Based on the target risk level of each target natural environment information, the risk value corresponding to each target natural environment information is calculated using the natural environment information quantification processing formula;

[0029] The risk probability value of the objective variable indicator is taken as the product of the risk values ​​corresponding to the multiple target natural environment information and the risk value corresponding to the special operation indicator information.

[0030] Optionally, the on-site personnel violation information includes multiple violations and the duration and number of occurrences of the multiple violations;

[0031] The risk quantitative assessment of the on-site personnel violation information based on the on-site personnel violation information and the set dynamic controllable indicators, and determining the risk probability value of the dynamic controllable indicators, includes:

[0032] Based on the dynamic controllable indicators, the violation information of on-site personnel is analyzed to obtain the risk level value of each violation;

[0033] Multiply the duration, number of occurrences and risk level of each violation to obtain the risk value corresponding to each violation;

[0034] Based on multiple violations, the risk value corresponding to each violation is multiplied to obtain the risk probability value of the dynamic controllable indicator.

[0035] Optionally, the risk probability value of the basic indicators, the risk probability value of the objective variable indicators, the risk probability value of the dynamically controllable indicators, and the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation are used to evaluate the safety risk of the distribution network engineering operation, including:

[0036] Based on the risk probability values ​​of the basic indicators, the risk probability values ​​of the objective variable indicators and the risk probability values ​​of the dynamically controllable indicators, the safety risk quantification coefficient of the distribution network engineering operation is obtained by using the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation;

[0037] Based on the safety risk quantification coefficient, determining the risk level of the distribution network engineering operation from preset distribution network engineering operation risk levels;

[0038] Based on the risk level of the distribution network engineering operation, the safety risk of the distribution network engineering operation is evaluated.

[0039] Optionally, the risk probability value based on the basic indicators, the risk probability value of the objective variable indicators and the risk probability value of the dynamically controllable indicators, using the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation, to obtain the safety risk quantification coefficient of the distribution network engineering operation, includes:

[0040] Inputting the risk probability value of the basic indicators, the risk probability value of the objective variable indicators and the risk probability value of the dynamically controllable indicators into the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation;

[0041] Based on the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation, the risk probability value of the basic indicator, the risk probability value of the objective variable indicator and the risk probability value of the dynamically controllable indicator are multiplied to output the safety risk quantification coefficient of the distribution network engineering operation.

[0042] Optionally, the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation satisfies the following formula:

[0043] P=P1×P2×P3

[0044] Among them, P is the quantitative coefficient of safety risk of distribution network engineering operations, P1 is the risk probability value of basic indicators, P2 is the risk probability value of objective variable indicators, and P3 is the risk probability value of dynamic controllable indicators.

[0045] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a dynamic quantitative assessment system for safety risks of distribution network engineering operations, the system comprising:

[0046] An information acquisition unit, used to obtain inherent attribute information, operation scene information, and on-site personnel violation information of distribution network engineering operations;

[0047] A basic indicator risk probability determination unit, configured to quantitatively evaluate the risk of the inherent attribute information based on the inherent attribute information and the set basic indicator, and determine the risk probability value of the basic indicator;

[0048] An objective variable indicator risk probability determination unit, based on the operation scene information and the set objective variable indicators, performs a risk quantitative assessment on the operation scene information and determines a risk probability value of the objective variable indicator;

[0049] A dynamic controllable indicator risk probability determination unit, configured to quantitatively evaluate the risk of the on-site personnel violation information based on the on-site personnel violation information and the set dynamic controllable indicators, and determine the risk probability value of the dynamic controllable indicators;

[0050] The safety risk assessment unit is used to assess the safety risk of the distribution network engineering operation based on the risk probability value of the basic indicators, the risk probability value of the objective variable indicators, the risk probability value of the dynamically controllable indicators, and the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation.

[0051] Optionally, the inherent attributes of the distribution network engineering operation include the operation risk level, the number of high-risk processes, the total duration of high-risk processes and the number of high-risk processes in parallel;

[0052] The basic indicator risk probability determination unit includes:

[0053] A risk quantification base value determination module is used to calculate the operation risk quantification base value corresponding to the operation risk level based on the operation risk level by using the risk level quantification processing formula;

[0054] A risk value determination module, configured to respectively obtain, based on the number of high-risk processes, the total duration of the high-risk processes and the number of high-risk processes in parallel, the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes, the risk value corresponding to the total duration of the high-risk processes and the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes in parallel;

[0055] The basic indicator risk probability determination module is used to multiply the basic value of the operation risk quantification, the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes, the risk value corresponding to the total duration of the high-risk processes, and the risk value corresponding to the number of parallel high-risk processes to obtain the risk probability value of the basic indicator.

[0056] Optionally, the risk value determination module is specifically used to:

[0057] Based on the number of high-risk processes, obtaining the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes from the corresponding relationship between the number of high-risk processes and the risk value;

[0058] Based on the total duration of the high-risk process, obtaining the risk value corresponding to the total duration of the high-risk process from the corresponding relationship between the total duration of the high-risk process and the risk value;

[0059] Based on the number of parallel processes with high risks, a risk value corresponding to the number of parallel processes with high risks is obtained from a corresponding relationship between the number of parallel processes with high risks and the risk value.

[0060] Optionally, the risk level quantification processing formula satisfies the following formula:

[0061]

[0062] Among them, i represents the operation risk level, n represents the nth process, and j represents the superposition value. It represents the quantitative basic value of the operation risk of the nth process with operation risk level i.

[0063] Optionally, the operation scene information includes special operation indicator information and multiple target natural environment information;

[0064] The objective variable indicator risk probability determination unit is specifically used to:

[0065] Based on the special operation indicator information, determining the risk value corresponding to the special operation indicator information from the corresponding relationship between the special operation indicator and the risk value;

[0066] Based on the objective variable indicators, each natural environment information is classified into a level to obtain a risk level of each natural environment information;

[0067] Determine a target risk level for each target natural environment information from the risk level of each natural environment information;

[0068] Based on the target risk level of each target natural environment information, the risk value corresponding to each target natural environment information is calculated using the natural environment information quantification processing formula;

[0069] The risk probability value of the objective variable indicator is taken as the product of the risk values ​​corresponding to the multiple target natural environment information and the risk value corresponding to the special operation indicator information.

[0070] Optionally, the on-site personnel violation information includes multiple violations and the duration and number of occurrences of the multiple violations;

[0071] The dynamic controllable indicator risk probability determination unit is specifically used to:

[0072] Based on the dynamic controllable indicators, the violation information of on-site personnel is analyzed to obtain the risk level value of each violation;

[0073] Multiply the duration, number of occurrences and risk level of each violation to obtain the risk value corresponding to each violation;

[0074] Based on multiple violations, the risk value corresponding to each violation is multiplied to obtain the risk probability value of the dynamic controllable indicator.

[0075] Optionally, the security risk assessment unit includes:

[0076] A safety risk quantification coefficient determination module is used to obtain the safety risk quantification coefficient of the distribution network engineering operation based on the risk probability value of the basic indicators, the risk probability value of the objective variable indicators and the risk probability value of the dynamically controllable indicators, using the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation;

[0077] A risk level determination module, used to determine the risk level of the distribution network engineering operation from preset distribution network engineering operation risk levels based on the safety risk quantification coefficient;

[0078] The safety risk assessment module is used to assess the safety risk of the distribution network engineering operation based on the risk level of the distribution network engineering operation.

[0079] Optionally, the safety risk quantification coefficient determination module is specifically used to:

[0080] Inputting the risk probability value of the basic indicators, the risk probability value of the objective variable indicators and the risk probability value of the dynamically controllable indicators into the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation;

[0081] Based on the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation, the risk probability value of the basic indicator, the risk probability value of the objective variable indicator and the risk probability value of the dynamically controllable indicator are multiplied to output the safety risk quantification coefficient of the distribution network engineering operation.

[0082] Optionally, the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation satisfies the following formula:

[0083] P=P1×P2×P3

[0084] Among them, P is the quantitative coefficient of safety risk of distribution network engineering operations, P1 is the risk probability value of basic indicators, P2 is the risk probability value of objective variable indicators, and P3 is the risk probability value of dynamic controllable indicators.

[0085] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a computing device, including: one or more processors;

[0086] a processor for executing one or more programs;

[0087] When the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, a dynamic quantitative assessment method for safety risks of distribution network engineering operations as described above is implemented.

[0088] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon. When the computer program is executed, a dynamic quantitative assessment method for safety risks of distribution network engineering operations as described above is implemented.

[0089] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0090] The present invention provides a method, system, device and medium for dynamic quantitative assessment of safety risks of distribution network engineering operations. The method for dynamic quantitative assessment of safety risks of distribution network engineering operations quantitatively assesses inherent attribute information, operation scene information and violation information of on-site personnel of distribution network engineering operations, determines the risk probability values ​​of basic indicators, the risk probability values ​​of objective variable indicators and the risk probability values ​​of dynamically controllable indicators, and assesses the safety of distribution network engineering operations through the risk probability values ​​of basic indicators, the risk probability values ​​of objective variable indicators, the risk probability values ​​of dynamically controllable indicators and the calculation model of the safety risk quantitative coefficient of distribution network engineering operations, which can expand the risk assessment to the whole operation process, refine it to all elements of the operation, optimize the comprehensiveness of risk assessment indicators according to typical operation scenes, realize accurate evaluation and judgment of operation risks, and ensure the safety of the operation site. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0091] Figure 1 A flow chart of a method for dynamic quantitative assessment of safety risks of distribution network engineering operations provided by the present invention;

[0092] Figure 2 A flow chart of another method for dynamic quantitative assessment of safety risks of distribution network engineering operations provided by the present invention;

[0093] Figure 3 A flow chart of another method for dynamic quantitative assessment of safety risks of distribution network engineering operations provided by the present invention;

[0094] Figure 4 A flow chart of another method for dynamic quantitative assessment of safety risks of distribution network engineering operations provided by the present invention;

[0095] Figure 5A flow chart of another method for dynamic quantitative assessment of safety risks of distribution network engineering operations provided by the present invention;

[0096] Figure 6 A flow chart for implementing a method for dynamic quantitative assessment of safety risks of distribution network engineering operations provided by the present invention;

[0097] Figure 7 A context diagram of a theoretical key factor affecting safety risk provided by the present invention;

[0098] Figure 8 A schematic diagram of an operation risk quantification index system provided by the present invention;

[0099] Fig. 9 A schematic diagram of the classification of risk accidents caused by risk violation behaviors provided by the present invention;

[0100] Fig.10 A block diagram of a distribution network engineering operation safety risk dynamic quantitative assessment system provided by the present invention;

[0101] Fig.11 A block diagram of a computer device provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0102] Embodiment 1:

[0103] Figure 1 A flow chart of a method for dynamic quantitative assessment of safety risks of distribution network engineering operations provided by the present invention, such as Figure 1 As shown, the method may include the following steps:

[0104] In step 101, inherent attribute information, operation scene information, and on-site personnel violation information of the distribution network engineering operation are obtained.

[0105] Among them, the inherent attributes of the distribution network engineering operation include the operation risk level, the number of high-risk processes, the total duration of high-risk processes and the number of parallel high-risk processes; the operation scene information includes special operation indicator information and multiple target natural environment information; the on-site personnel violation information includes multiple violations and the duration and number of occurrences of multiple violations.

[0106] In step 102, based on the inherent attribute information and the set basic class indicators, a risk quantification assessment is performed on the inherent attribute information to determine the risk probability value of the basic class indicators.

[0107] Among them, the basic indicators mainly consider the inherent attributes of a distribution network construction project itself, and are related to factors such as the type of project and the duration of the project. Specific evaluation indicators include the risk level of the construction project, the number of high-risk processes and their duration, the number of parallel high-risk processes, etc. The basic indicators express the risk situation of a certain type of operation. The calculation and evaluation method of the basic indicators does not change during the actual operation process.

[0108] In step 103, based on the operation scene information and the set objective variable indicators, a risk quantification assessment is performed on the operation scene information to determine the risk probability value of the objective variable indicators.

[0109] Among them, objective variable indicators mainly consider objective indicators such as specific conditions and environment faced during the implementation of the operation. They can be specifically divided into geographical conditions (for example: coastal, inland, plain, mountainous, north-south, etc.), meteorological conditions (meteorological conditions include wind speed, temperature and humidity, etc.), seasonal conditions (for example: spring, summer, autumn and winter), disaster conditions (for example: rain, snow, ice, lightning, typhoons, etc.), live conditions of operating equipment (for example: distribution equipment operation risk warning, special power supply tasks, zero-stop operation, live operation, power testing operation), operating machinery conditions (for example: whether it involves live operation boom trucks, cranes, pit digging and pole erecting machines, escalators and other equipment), safety tool conditions (for example: safety helmets, safety belts, safety operation fences, etc.). Objective variable indicators express the risk situation under specific operating scenarios. Once the operating scenario is determined, the corresponding risks exist objectively and can only be reduced through management and control measures.

[0110] In step 104, based on the on-site personnel violation information and the set dynamic controllable indicators, a risk quantitative assessment of the on-site personnel violation information is performed to determine the risk probability value of the dynamic controllable indicators.

[0111] Among them, the dynamic controllable indicators are identified and judged using the operation risk subject identification model. The quantification of this type of risk is quantitatively calculated using the number of risk types, duration of risk violations, number of occurrences, and degree of risk. The subjective controllable indicators express the impact of personnel operation behaviors on risks in specific operation scenarios. This type of indicator changes in real time with the progress of the operation tasks and can be adjusted according to the actual situation on site. It reflects the dynamic process of the operation and is a variable for which substantial adjustments can be made to achieve risk control.

[0112] In step 105, the safety risk of the distribution network engineering operation is evaluated based on the risk probability values ​​of the basic indicators, the risk probability values ​​of the objective variable indicators, the risk probability values ​​of the dynamically controllable indicators, and the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation.

[0113] The present invention relates to the fields of perception and acquisition of safety risk factors in operation processes in the field of distribution network engineering construction, quantitative analysis of safety risk factors and fusion and superposition of multiple risk factors, and dynamic quantitative assessment of safety risks, and in particular to a dynamic quantitative assessment method for safety risks in distribution network engineering operations.

[0114] At present, there are not many quantitative risk analyses for distribution network engineering operations, and none of them have been refined to the level of on-site operation implementation. By conducting accurate and comprehensive identification and analysis of all elements of the "man-machine-material-method-environment" operation, effective guidance for specific operations can be achieved.

[0115] To this end, the present invention proposes a dynamic quantitative assessment method for the safety risk of distribution network engineering operations based on the "five-level five-control" risk management and control system, comprehensively analyzes the influencing factors of operation risks, constructs a three-level risk indicator system, and establishes a risk assessment model to achieve quantitative expression of the degree of operation risk, and proposes a risk control strategy between different intervals on this basis, providing scientific guidance for the formulation of specific operation risk control measures. The present invention provides a method for quantitative assessment of operation risks and its risk control strategy for distribution network engineering construction operations. The method expands risk assessment to the entire operation process, refines it to all elements of the operation, constructs an operation risk assessment model, and optimizes the comprehensiveness of risk assessment indicators and the accuracy of model parameters based on typical operation scenarios, so as to achieve accurate evaluation and judgment of operation risks and ensure the safety of the operation site.

[0116] In order to move the prevention threshold forward and transform the superficial and qualitative distribution network engineering operation risk assessment into a refined, quantitative and measurable direction, the present invention is mainly based on the international advanced safety management concept, closely combined with the actual on-site operation of the distribution network engineering, and systematically studies the on-site operation risks. It proposes a dynamic quantitative assessment model, index and method system for operation safety risks, analyzes the key factors of safety risks in the operation, proposes a dynamic quantitative assessment model and application method system for safety risks, formulates risk assessment indicators and designs classification thresholds, gives quantitative indicators and indications for the safety risks of distribution network engineering operations, conducts application analysis on the dynamic quantitative assessment model for risks, and provides a basis for various professional work, process arrangement, and formulation of risk control measures for distribution network engineering. It can effectively improve the ability to predict and control personal safety risks in distribution network engineering operations, and has very important practical value and promotion significance.

[0117] The above technical scheme determines the risk probability values ​​of basic indicators, objective variable indicators and dynamic controllable indicators by quantitatively evaluating the inherent attribute information, operation scenario information and violation information of on-site personnel of distribution network engineering operations, and evaluates the safety of distribution network engineering operations through the risk probability values ​​of basic indicators, objective variable indicators, dynamic controllable indicators and the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of distribution network engineering operations. It can expand risk assessment to the entire operation process and refine it to all elements of the operation. According to typical operation scenarios, it can optimize the comprehensiveness of risk assessment indicators, realize accurate evaluation and judgment of operation risks, and ensure the safety of the operation site.

[0118] Figure 2 A flowchart of another method for dynamic quantitative assessment of safety risks of distribution network engineering operations provided by the present invention is shown in FIG. Figure 2 As shown above Figure 1 The specific implementation of step 102 may include the following steps:

[0119] In step 1021, based on the operation risk level, a risk level quantification processing formula is used to calculate the operation risk quantification base value corresponding to the operation risk level.

[0120] In some implementations, the risk level quantification processing formula satisfies the following formula:

[0121]

[0122] Among them, i represents the operation risk level, n represents the nth process, and j represents the superposition value. It represents the quantitative basic value of the operation risk of the nth process with operation risk level i.

[0123] It should be noted that for the basic type of operation risk level index (i.e., operation risk level), the reference value of each operation process risk (i.e., the quantitative basic value of the operation risk corresponding to the operation risk level), the assignment principle is to define its quantitative index as 1 as the starting value, and according to the calculation formula Calculate the reference value of risk for each operation process.

[0124] In step 1022, based on the number of high-risk processes, the total duration of the high-risk processes and the number of parallel high-risk processes, the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes, the risk value corresponding to the total duration of the high-risk processes and the risk value corresponding to the number of parallel high-risk processes are obtained respectively.

[0125] Possible implementation methods of this step may be: based on the number of high-risk processes, obtaining the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes from the corresponding relationship between the number of high-risk processes and the risk value; based on the total duration of the high-risk processes, obtaining the risk value corresponding to the total duration of the high-risk processes from the corresponding relationship between the total duration of the high-risk processes and the risk value; based on the number of parallel high-risk processes, obtaining the risk value corresponding to the number of parallel high-risk processes from the corresponding relationship between the number of parallel high-risk processes and the risk value.

[0126] For example, for the two basic indicators of the number of parallel high-risk processes and the total duration of high-risk operations, W1 and W2 are used to represent the weight coefficients corresponding to the total duration of high-risk processes and the number of parallel high-risk processes (i.e., the risk value corresponding to the total duration of high-risk processes and the risk value corresponding to the number of parallel high-risk processes).

[0127] In step 1023, the quantitative basic value of the operation risk, the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes, the risk value corresponding to the total duration of the high-risk processes, and the risk value corresponding to the number of parallel high-risk processes are multiplied together to obtain the risk probability value of the basic category indicator.

[0128] For example, the risk probability value of the basic indicator can be calculated by the following formula:

[0129]

[0130] Among them, P1 represents the risk probability value of the basic indicator, W1 n It is expressed as the risk value corresponding to the total duration of the high-risk process of the nth process, It is expressed as the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes in parallel in the nth process. It is represented as the quantitative basic value of the operation risk of the nth process with operation risk level i, N1 is represented as the number of basic indicators (i.e. processes), and n is represented as the nth process.

[0131] The above technical scheme calculates the quantitative basic value of the operation risk corresponding to the operation risk level through the risk level quantification processing formula, and multiplies the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes, the risk value corresponding to the total duration of high-risk processes, and the risk value corresponding to the number of parallel high-risk processes, so as to effectively obtain the risk probability value of the basic indicator, which can improve the accuracy of determining the risk level of the dynamic quantitative assessment of the safety risk of distribution network engineering operations, realize the accurate evaluation and judgment of operation risks, and ensure the safety of the operation site.

[0132] Figure 3 A flow chart of another method for dynamic quantitative assessment of safety risks of distribution network engineering operations provided by the present invention is shown in FIG. Figure 3 As shown above Figure 1The specific implementation of step 103 may include the following steps:

[0133] In step 1031, based on the special operation indicator information, the risk value corresponding to the special operation indicator information is determined from the corresponding relationship between the special operation indicator and the risk value.

[0134] The special operation indicator information may include information on having special operation requirements or information on not having special operation requirements.

[0135] For example, special operation index information may include the operating equipment power-on conditions, operating machinery conditions, and safety tool conditions. The operating equipment power-on conditions, operating machinery conditions, and safety tool conditions are divided into two levels of standards according to whether there are special operation requirements. Visual risk identification technology is used to make a binary judgment on whether there is a risk. The assignment principle is to define its quantitative indicators as (i.e. the correspondence between special operation indicators and risk values).

[0136] In step 1032, each natural environment information is classified into a level based on the objective variable index to obtain a risk level of each natural environment information.

[0137] Among them, natural environment information may include geographical conditions, meteorological conditions, seasonal conditions, and disaster conditions.

[0138] For example, the regional conditions, meteorological conditions, seasonal conditions and disaster conditions are graded to obtain multiple risk levels for the regional conditions, multiple risk levels for the meteorological conditions, multiple risk levels for the seasonal conditions and multiple risk levels for the disaster conditions.

[0139] In step 1033, a target risk level of each target natural environment information is determined from the risk level of each natural environment information.

[0140] For example, according to the target geographical condition in the target natural environment information, a target risk level of the target geographical condition is determined from a plurality of levels of the geographical condition.

[0141] In step 1034, based on the target risk level of each target natural environment information, the risk value corresponding to each target natural environment information is calculated using the natural environment information quantification processing formula.

[0142] For example, the quantitative calculation of objective variable indicators, the principle of assigning values ​​to regional conditions, meteorological conditions, seasonal conditions, and disaster conditions is to define the quantitative index as 1 as the starting value, and then calculate it according to the calculation method. According to the target risk level of the target geographical conditions, the target risk level of the target meteorological conditions, the target risk level of the target seasonal conditions and the target risk level of the target disaster conditions, the calculation method is used to calculate the target risk level of the target geographical conditions, the target risk level of the target meteorological conditions, the target risk level of the target seasonal conditions and the target risk level of the target disaster conditions. The risk values ​​of the target geographical conditions, the target meteorological conditions, the target seasonal conditions and the target disaster conditions are calculated.

[0143] In step 1035, the product of the risk values ​​corresponding to the multiple target natural environment information and the risk value corresponding to the special operation indicator information is used as the risk probability value of the objective variable indicator.

[0144] In some embodiments, the risk probability value of the objective variable indicator can be calculated by the following formula:

[0145]

[0146] Among them, P2 represents the risk probability value of the objective variable indicator. It is represented as the risk value corresponding to the target natural environment information with the nth risk level i, N2 is represented as the number of objective variable indicators, and n is represented as the nth objective variable indicator.

[0147] The above technical scheme determines the risk value corresponding to the special operation indicator through the corresponding relationship between the special operation indicator and the risk value, determines the risk value corresponding to each target natural environment information through the risk level of each natural environment information and the natural environment information quantitative processing formula, and effectively obtains the risk probability value of the objective variable indicator by multiplying the risk values ​​corresponding to multiple target natural environment information and the risk values ​​corresponding to the special operation indicator information. It can improve the accuracy of determining the risk level of the dynamic quantitative assessment of the safety risk of distribution network engineering operations, realize the accurate evaluation and judgment of operation risks, and ensure the safety of the operation site.

[0148] Figure 4 A flow chart of another method for dynamic quantitative assessment of safety risks of distribution network engineering operations provided by the present invention is shown in FIG. Figure 4 As shown above Figure 1 The specific implementation of step 104 may include the following steps:

[0149] In step 1041, based on the dynamic controllable indicators, the violation information of the on-site personnel is analyzed to obtain the risk level value of each violation.

[0150] For example, the operational risk subject identification model identifies violations by on-site personnel, analyzes each violation, determines the risk level of each violation, and determines the risk level value of each violation based on the risk level of each violation.

[0151] In step 1042, the duration, number of occurrences and risk level of each violation are multiplied together to obtain a risk value corresponding to each violation.

[0152] It should be noted that the duration, number of occurrences and risk level of each violation are multiplied together to obtain the standby product, and the standby product is used as the risk value corresponding to each violation.

[0153] In step 1043, based on multiple violations, the risk value corresponding to each violation is multiplied to obtain the risk probability value of the dynamic controllable indicator.

[0154] In some embodiments, the risk probability value of the dynamic controllable indicator can be calculated by the following formula:

[0155]

[0156] Among them, P3 represents the risk probability value of the dynamic controllable indicator. It represents the risk value corresponding to the i-th violation, N3 represents the number of dynamic controllable indicators, and n represents the n-th dynamic controllable indicator.

[0157] It should be noted that the dynamic controllable indicators are identified and judged using the operational risk subject identification model. The risk quantification of this type is quantified using the duration, number of occurrences and degree of risk of risk violations. The risk quantification calculation method is as follows: T i , C i , I i They are respectively the duration, number of occurrences and degree of risk causing of risk violations of a certain dynamic controllable risk indicator.

[0158] The above technical scheme obtains the risk value corresponding to each violation by multiplying the duration, number of occurrences and risk degree value of each violation, and effectively obtains the risk probability value of the dynamic controllable indicator by multiplying the risk value corresponding to each violation. It can improve the accuracy of determining the risk level of the dynamic quantitative assessment of the safety risk of distribution network engineering operations, realize accurate evaluation and judgment of operation risks, and ensure the safety of the operation site.

[0159] Figure 5 A flow chart of another method for dynamic quantitative assessment of safety risks of distribution network engineering operations provided by the present invention is shown in FIG. Figure 5 As shown above Figure 1 The specific implementation of step 105 may include the following steps:

[0160] In step 1051, based on the risk probability values ​​of the basic indicators, the risk probability values ​​of the objective variable indicators and the risk probability values ​​of the dynamically controllable indicators, the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation is used to obtain the safety risk quantification coefficient of the distribution network engineering operation.

[0161] A possible implementation method of this step may be to input the risk probability values ​​of the basic indicators, the risk probability values ​​of the objective variable indicators and the risk probability values ​​of the dynamically controllable indicators into the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation; based on the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation, the risk probability values ​​of the basic indicators, the risk probability values ​​of the objective variable indicators and the risk probability values ​​of the dynamically controllable indicators are multiplied to output the safety risk quantification coefficient of the distribution network engineering operation.

[0162] In some embodiments, the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation satisfies the following formula:

[0163] P=P1×P2×P3

[0164] Among them, P is the quantitative coefficient of safety risk of distribution network engineering operations, P1 is the risk probability value of basic indicators, P2 is the risk probability value of objective variable indicators, and P3 is the risk probability value of dynamic controllable indicators.

[0165] In step 1052, based on the safety risk quantification coefficient, the risk level of the distribution network engineering operation is determined from preset distribution network engineering operation risk levels.

[0166] Among them, the preset distribution network engineering operation risk level can be represented as the corresponding relationship between the safety risk quantification coefficient and the risk level.

[0167] A possible implementation method of this step may be: using the safety risk quantification coefficient to find the risk level corresponding to the safety risk quantification coefficient from the preset distribution network engineering operation risk levels, and using the risk level corresponding to the safety risk quantification coefficient as the risk level of the distribution network engineering operation.

[0168] Another possible implementation method of this step may be: obtaining a set maximum value of the safety risk quantification coefficient, calculating the ratio of the safety risk quantification coefficient to the set maximum value of the safety risk quantification coefficient, and determining the risk level of the distribution network engineering operation from the preset distribution network engineering operation risk level through the ratio.

[0169] In step 1053, based on the risk level of the distribution network engineering operation, the safety risk of the distribution network engineering operation is evaluated.

[0170] Among them, P is defined as the safety risk quantification coefficient of distribution network engineering operations, which is the product of the values ​​of various influencing factors and is calculated by the following formula:

[0171]

[0172] Among them, N1, N2, and N3 are the numbers of three types of risk indicators (i.e., basic indicators, objective variable indicators, and dynamically controllable indicators).

[0173] It should be noted that, combined with the risk quantification calculation, each level (level V-level I) is divided into "control interval" (level I-level III), "attention interval" (level IV) and "normal interval" (level V), among which "control interval" means that the operation risk is relatively high, and necessary measures need to be taken to reduce the operation risk in advance; "attention interval" means that the operation risk is relatively high, and the operation attention should be strengthened. If necessary, optimization and adjustment should be made to reduce the operation risk; "normal interval" means that the operation risk is general and the established control measures can be followed.

[0174] For example, Figure 6 A flow chart of a method for dynamically quantifying safety risk assessment of distribution network engineering operations provided by the present invention is shown in FIG. Figure 6 As shown, in order to identify and extract multi-source risk factor information of distribution network engineering construction operations, adopt quantitative evaluation means to express risk levels, and realize dynamic tracking of operation risk levels, the present invention proposes a dynamic quantitative assessment method for safety risks of distribution network engineering operations.

[0175] The specific solutions and contents for implementing the invention are as follows:

[0176] Step 1: Quantitative indicator system for distribution network construction operation risks.

[0177] Quantitative analysis of the risks of construction operations of distribution network projects should first establish various quantitative assessment indicators as the basis and input variables for risk quantitative analysis. Establish quantitative assessment indicators for operation risks, based on on-site operation practices, and take into account factors that may directly lead to risks or indirectly introduce other risks. In-depth consideration should be given to all elements of the operation, such as "man, machine, material, method, and environment", and the entire process of the operation "before, during, and after". Comprehensively examine the risks of all dimensions and links of the operation to ensure that the indicators set are comprehensive, deeply analyze the relationship between various factors and operation risks, and construct indicators according to different levels and categories. Focus on clarifying indicators that are interrelated and mutually influential, and merge indicators with repeated connotations to ensure that the set indicators are accurate.

[0178] According to the “man-machine-material-method-environment” analysis of the working environment, the theoretical key factors affecting safety risks are as follows: Figure 7 shown.

[0179] Starting from all elements of distribution network engineering construction operations, we comprehensively sort out the influencing factors of the entire operation process. According to the hierarchical and classified thinking, and based on the correlation between each influencing factor and the operation risk, the risk quantification assessment indicators are subdivided into three different types: basic type (i.e. basic type indicators), objective variable type (i.e. objective variable type indicators), and dynamically controllable type (i.e. dynamically controllable type indicators).

[0180] Based on this, the dynamic risks of the distribution network engineering operation site are analyzed, and the factors affecting the risk changes during the operation process are sorted out to obtain the following Figure 8 The three types of risk indicators are shown. Quantify each type of risk indicator, calculate the risk quantification value and conduct dynamic evaluation. Figure 8 A schematic diagram of a quantitative index system for operational risk provided by the present invention is shown in FIG. Figure 8 As shown, the basic categories may include project type, duration, etc., and the objective variable categories may be specifically divided into geographical conditions, meteorological conditions, seasonal conditions, catastrophic conditions, energized conditions of operating equipment, operating machinery conditions, safety tool conditions, etc. The objective variable categories may include the number of violation risk types, duration of violations, number of occurrences, and degree of danger, etc.

[0181] The above three types of indicators are superimposed on each other to achieve the overall risk quantitative assessment of a specific operation task, and the overall risk size of a specific operation dynamically, but the various indicators have different ways and degrees of influence on the size of the operation risk. Among them, the basic indicators are the basis for the quantitative assessment of operation risks and constitute the main body of the operation risk assessment; the objective variable and dynamically controllable indicators are finally determined by evaluating the various elements at the level of operation implementation after a certain operation is implemented in a specific and specific scenario, and determine the degree of discreteness of the operation risk in the main body. By weighting and assigning values ​​to the above three types of indicators, the quantitative processing of each indicator is completed, and a risk quantitative assessment model (i.e., a safety risk quantitative coefficient calculation model for distribution network engineering operations) is established according to the corresponding relationship between each indicator and the size of the operation risk, and the quantitative calculation of the size of the operation risk is completed, so as to achieve the degree of measuring the risk of a specific operation with specific values. The weighting and assignment of various indicators should comply with the framework system of "five levels and five controls", and should be based on the actual situation of the operation, make explicit distinctions between indicators of different categories and types, and set them scientifically and reasonably in combination with the risk assessment model.

[0182] Among them, each operational risk indicator has both continuous and discrete values, and the calculation method of each indicator is different.

[0183] Step 2: Quantitative calculation of basic risk indicators for distribution network construction operations.

[0184] According to the above principles, for the basic operation risk level indicators, we refer to the risk grading strategy of "five levels and five controls" to define the benchmark values ​​of each level of operation process risk, which are used as the reference values ​​of the corresponding operation process risks. The value assignment principle is to define its quantitative index as 1 as the starting value, and according to the calculation method i represents the operation risk level, n represents the nth process, j represents the superposition value, It represents the quantitative basic value of the operation risk of the nth process with the operation risk level i, and calculates the quantitative index value of each risk level. The calculation results are as follows

[0185] Table 1.

[0186]

[0187] Table 1 Five-level quantitative indicators of basic operation process risk

[0188] For the two indicators of the number of parallel high-risk processes and the total duration of high-risk operations in the basic category, they are divided into different value intervals, and specific weight coefficients are defined for each interval. i n The above characterizes the degree of influence of high-risk processes on operational risks. Combined with on-site operation experience, the following four value intervals and their weight coefficients are set. In the calculation model, W1 and W2 are used to represent the weight coefficients corresponding to the total duration and parallel number of high-risk processes, respectively. The specific values ​​are shown in Table 2.

[0189]

[0190] Table 2 Weight coefficients corresponding to the total duration and number of parallel processes of high-risk processes

[0191] Step 3: Quantitative calculation of objective variable risk indicators for distribution network construction operations.

[0192] Quantitative calculation of objective variable indicators: four types of indicators, namely, regional conditions, meteorological conditions, seasonal conditions and disaster conditions, are divided into five levels according to the five-level standard. The principle of assignment is to define the quantitative indicator as 1 as the starting value, and then calculate it according to the calculation method. i represents the level of the four types of indicators, n represents the nth type of indicator, j represents the superposition value, It represents the risk value of the nth indicator with the indicator level i.

[0193] The live conditions of operating equipment, operating machinery conditions, and safety tool conditions are divided into two levels of standards according to whether there are special operating requirements. The assignment principle is to define its quantitative indicators as follows:

[0194]

[0195] Step 4: Quantitative calculation of dynamic and controllable risk indicators for distribution network construction operations.

[0196] Dynamic controllable indicators are identified and judged using the operational risk subject identification model. This type of risk is quantified using the number of risk violation types, duration of risk violation behaviors, number of occurrences, and degree of risk.

[0197] The causes of risk violations and accidents are divided into the following two categories: unsafe behaviors of people and unsafe conditions of objects, such as Fig. 9 shown.

[0198] Define the risk hazard value of the dynamic controllable indicators of distribution network construction operations to quantify this type of risk, analyze it according to the risk type and severity level, and assign values ​​to the risk hazard value model data. The risk quantification calculation method is as follows: T i , C i ,I i They are respectively the duration, number of occurrences and degree of risk causing of risk violation behaviors of a certain dynamic controllable risk indicator.

[0199] Define the risk hazard value of the dynamic controllable indicators of distribution network construction operations to quantify this type of risk, analyze it according to the risk type and severity level, assign values ​​to the risk hazard value model data, and obtain the risk quantification calculation method.

[0200]

[0201] Table 3 Requirements for the value of risk level

[0202] Step 5: Determine the danger level of the distribution network construction operation safety risk quantification model.

[0203] The risk quantification model hazard level determination and color warning regulations are as follows:

[0204] (1) Establish a personal safety hazard matrix based on the risk value and set 5 risk levels:

[0205] 1) Level I risk (red): consider giving up or stopping;

[0206] 2) Level II risk (orange): immediate corrective action is required;

[0207] 3) Level III risk (yellow): immediate corrective action is required;

[0208] 4) Level IV risk (blue): requires attention;

[0209] 5) Level V risk (green): Tolerable

[0210] Dynamic quantitative assessment of safety risks in distribution network engineering operations Threshold settings for each risk level:

[0211] Define P as the quantified coefficient of safety risk of distribution network engineering operations.

[0212] 1) Level I risk (red): risk value = Pmax, consider giving up or stopping;

[0213] 2) Level II risk (orange): 0.5Pmax≤risk value<Pmax, corrective measures need to be taken immediately;

[0214] 3) Level III risk (yellow): 0.3Pmax≤risk value<0.5Pmax, corrective measures need to be considered;

[0215] 4) Level IV risk (blue): 0.15Pmax≤risk value<0.3Pmax, need to be paid attention to;

[0216] 5) Level V risk (green): risk value ≤ 0.15Pmax, tolerable.

[0217] Among them, P max :

[0218] P max =P 1max ·P 2max ·P 3max

[0219] P max :Calculated by the maximum value of each risk value, the quantitative index is obtained, so as to determine the risk threshold range of each level in step 5, P1 max The maximum value of the risk probability of the basic indicator, P2 max P3 is the maximum value of the risk probability of the objective variable indicator. max It is the maximum value of the risk probability of the dynamically controllable indicators.

[0220] Step 6: Calculation model for the quantitative coefficient of safety risk of distribution network engineering operations.

[0221] The quantification coefficient of the safety risk of distribution network engineering operations is determined by calculating three types of risk quantification assessment indicators. The three different types of risk calculation methods, namely basic type, objective variable type and dynamically controllable type, can be calculated according to steps 3, 4 and 5. The superposition and fusion calculation method is as follows.

[0222] Before each operation of distribution network engineering, personal safety hazards and risks are unknown. This patent establishes a mathematical model to calculate and predict the quantitative coefficient of safety risks in the operation through formula. The mathematical model formula for the quantitative safety risk of distribution network engineering operation will quantify the safety risk level and calculate the risk probability value and risk hazard value of the influencing sub-factors involved in steps 2, 3, and 4. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0223] P is the quantitative coefficient of safety risk of distribution network engineering operation, which is the product of the values ​​of various influencing factors and is calculated by the following formula:

[0224] P=P1×P2×P3

[0225] Among them, P1, P2, and P3 are the corresponding probabilities of three types of risk factors (i.e., risk probability values).

[0226] In the present invention, the specific construction work corresponding to the distribution network project not only has considerable mobility, but also belongs to the open-air environment in the wild. The construction site terrain is very complex, the hazard factors are also diverse and complex, and the labor-intensive type is very strong, and the production operation intensity is very large, so in the process of construction work, the safety risk management is complicated and has great challenges. Therefore, if the dangerous source is not reasonably defined, people will feel unsafe everywhere, and everything is dangerous. It is difficult to distinguish the priority of preventing and controlling accidents, or it is impossible to start accident prevention and control work. The first step to effectively prevent the occurrence of construction production accidents is to define or confirm the dangerous source, and then take effective measures to eliminate or control the dangerous source according to its existing danger.

[0227] Hazard sources refer to the locations and sources that may cause personal injury, property loss and environmental damage. They can be dangerous equipment, facilities or logistics systems. According to the role of hazardous sources in accidents, combined with the accident causation theory, the concepts of physical and virtual hazardous sources are introduced to discuss the definition of hazardous sources in distribution network construction. During the construction of distribution network, there are four main aspects of physical hazardous sources: first, there are hazardous sources from the perspective of equipment and devices. These equipment mainly provide energy supply and generation, such as power supplies, generators, induction electricity, etc.; second, places, equipment and devices that can generate high potential energy for people or objects, such as cranes, high edges or air-facing locations, scaffolding, load-bearing platforms, etc.; third, if some equipment or some places are out of control, there will be greater energy or greater danger, such as landslide areas, mudslide areas, collapse areas, etc.; finally, some occasions are prone to flammable and explosive phenomena, or some toxic and harmful substances. Specific occasions include oil depots and chemical workshops, as well as other workplaces with noise, dust, and toxic substances.

[0228] Energy measures can be constrained, capacity measures can be limited, and their constraints or limitations are likely to cause unsafe dangers. The generation of this type of hazard source depends on the physical hazard source, which can also be specifically divided into three aspects: people, machines, and environment. The hazard source caused by people can be defined as human error, that is, the standard is deviated, because human behavior causes the physical hazard source to leave the original control area, and then an accident may occur. For example, a crane driver violates regulations and causes a lifting injury or rollover accident. The factor of the machine is usually the failure of the object, that is, the phenomenon that the predetermined function cannot be achieved due to poor performance. The failure of the object may directly make the measures to constrain and limit energy or dangerous substances invalid and cause an accident, and it may also cause another kind of object failure or human error, such as the failure of the lifting equipment limit device, the failure of the vehicle steering machine and brakes, etc. Environmental factors mainly refer to the environment in which the system operates, including physical factors such as temperature, humidity, lighting, dust, noise, and vibration.

[0229] Embodiment 2:

[0230] Fig.10 A block diagram of a distribution network engineering operation safety risk dynamic quantitative assessment system provided by the present invention, such as Fig.10 As shown, the system comprises:

[0231] The information acquisition unit 1001 is used to acquire the inherent attribute information, operation scene information, and on-site personnel violation information of the distribution network engineering operation;

[0232] A basic indicator risk probability determination unit 1002 is used to quantitatively evaluate the risk of the inherent attribute information based on the inherent attribute information and the set basic indicator, and determine the risk probability value of the basic indicator;

[0233] An objective variable indicator risk probability determination unit 1003, based on the operation scene information and the set objective variable indicators, performs a risk quantitative assessment on the operation scene information and determines a risk probability value of the objective variable indicator;

[0234] A dynamic controllable indicator risk probability determination unit 1004 is used to quantitatively evaluate the risk of the on-site personnel violation information based on the on-site personnel violation information and the set dynamic controllable indicators, and determine the risk probability value of the dynamic controllable indicators;

[0235] The safety risk assessment unit 1005 is used to assess the safety risk of the distribution network engineering operation based on the risk probability value of the basic indicators, the risk probability value of the objective variable indicators, the risk probability value of the dynamically controllable indicators, and the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation.

[0236] Optionally, the inherent attributes of the distribution network engineering operation include the operation risk level, the number of high-risk processes, the total duration of high-risk processes and the number of high-risk processes in parallel;

[0237] The basic indicator risk probability determination unit 1002 includes:

[0238] A risk quantification base value determination module is used to calculate the operation risk quantification base value corresponding to the operation risk level based on the operation risk level by using the risk level quantification processing formula;

[0239] A risk value determination module, configured to respectively obtain, based on the number of high-risk processes, the total duration of the high-risk processes and the number of high-risk processes in parallel, the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes, the risk value corresponding to the total duration of the high-risk processes and the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes in parallel;

[0240] The basic indicator risk probability determination module is used to multiply the basic value of the operation risk quantification, the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes, the risk value corresponding to the total duration of the high-risk processes, and the risk value corresponding to the number of parallel high-risk processes to obtain the risk probability value of the basic indicator.

[0241] Optionally, the risk value determination module is specifically used to:

[0242] Based on the number of high-risk processes, obtaining the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes from the corresponding relationship between the number of high-risk processes and the risk value;

[0243] Based on the total duration of the high-risk process, obtaining the risk value corresponding to the total duration of the high-risk process from the corresponding relationship between the total duration of the high-risk process and the risk value;

[0244] Based on the number of parallel processes with high risks, a risk value corresponding to the number of parallel processes with high risks is obtained from a corresponding relationship between the number of parallel processes with high risks and the risk value.

[0245] Optionally, the risk level quantification processing formula satisfies the following formula:

[0246]

[0247] Among them, i represents the operation risk level, n represents the nth process, and j represents the superposition value. It represents the quantitative basic value of the operation risk of the nth process with operation risk level i.

[0248] Optionally, the operation scene information includes special operation indicator information and multiple target natural environment information;

[0249] The objective variable indicator risk probability determination unit 1003 is specifically used to:

[0250] Based on the special operation indicator information, determining the risk value corresponding to the special operation indicator information from the corresponding relationship between the special operation indicator and the risk value;

[0251] Based on the objective variable indicators, each natural environment information is classified into a level to obtain a risk level of each natural environment information;

[0252] Determine a target risk level for each target natural environment information from the risk level of each natural environment information;

[0253] Based on the target risk level of each target natural environment information, the risk value corresponding to each target natural environment information is calculated using the natural environment information quantification processing formula;

[0254] The risk probability value of the objective variable indicator is taken as the product of the risk values ​​corresponding to the multiple target natural environment information and the risk value corresponding to the special operation indicator information.

[0255] Optionally, the on-site personnel violation information includes multiple violations and the duration and number of occurrences of the multiple violations;

[0256] The dynamic controllable indicator risk probability determination unit 1004 is specifically used to:

[0257] Based on the dynamic controllable indicators, the violation information of on-site personnel is analyzed to obtain the risk level value of each violation;

[0258] Multiply the duration, number of occurrences and risk level of each violation to obtain the risk value corresponding to each violation;

[0259] Based on multiple violations, the risk value corresponding to each violation is multiplied to obtain the risk probability value of the dynamic controllable indicator.

[0260] Optionally, the security risk assessment unit 1005 includes:

[0261] A safety risk quantification coefficient determination module is used to obtain the safety risk quantification coefficient of the distribution network engineering operation based on the risk probability value of the basic indicators, the risk probability value of the objective variable indicators and the risk probability value of the dynamically controllable indicators, using the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation;

[0262] A risk level determination module, used to determine the risk level of the distribution network engineering operation from preset distribution network engineering operation risk levels based on the safety risk quantification coefficient;

[0263] The safety risk assessment module is used to assess the safety risk of the distribution network engineering operation based on the risk level of the distribution network engineering operation.

[0264] Optionally, the safety risk quantification coefficient determination module is specifically used to:

[0265] Inputting the risk probability value of the basic indicators, the risk probability value of the objective variable indicators and the risk probability value of the dynamically controllable indicators into the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation;

[0266] Based on the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation, the risk probability value of the basic indicator, the risk probability value of the objective variable indicator and the risk probability value of the dynamically controllable indicator are multiplied to output the safety risk quantification coefficient of the distribution network engineering operation.

[0267] Optionally, the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation satisfies the following formula:

[0268] P=P1×P2×P3

[0269] Among them, P is the quantitative coefficient of safety risk of distribution network engineering operations, P1 is the risk probability value of basic indicators, P2 is the risk probability value of objective variable indicators, and P3 is the risk probability value of dynamic controllable indicators.

[0270] Embodiment 3:

[0271] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a computer device, such as Fig.11 As shown, the computer device includes a processor and a memory, the memory is used to store a computer program, the computer program includes program instructions, and the processor is used to execute the program instructions stored in the computer storage medium. The processor may be a central processing unit (CPU), or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSP), application-specific integrated circuits, or other processors.

[0272] (Application Specific Integrated Circuit, ASIC), off-the-shelf programmable gate array (Field-Programmable Gate Array, FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc., which are the computing core and control core of the terminal, and are suitable for implementing one or more instructions, specifically suitable for loading and executing one or more instructions in a computer storage medium to implement corresponding method flows or corresponding functions, so as to implement the steps of a dynamic quantitative assessment method for safety risks of distribution network engineering operations in the above-mentioned embodiment.

[0273] Embodiment 4:

[0274] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a storage medium, specifically a computer-readable storage medium (Memory), which is a memory device in a computer device for storing programs and data. It can be understood that the computer-readable storage medium here can include both built-in storage media in a computer device and, of course, extended storage media supported by the computer device. The computer-readable storage medium provides a storage space, which stores the operating system of the terminal. In addition, one or more instructions suitable for being loaded and executed by a processor are also stored in the storage space, and these instructions can be one or more computer programs (including program codes). It should be noted that the computer-readable storage medium here can be a high-speed RAM memory or a non-volatile memory, such as at least one disk memory. The processor can load and execute one or more instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium to implement the steps of a dynamic quantitative assessment method for safety risks of distribution network engineering operations in the above embodiment.

[0275] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that embodiments of the present invention may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention may take the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware. Moreover, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0276] The present invention is described with reference to flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of processes and / or blocks in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0277] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer readable memory produce an article of manufacture including an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0278] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A step that specifies a function in one or more boxes.

[0279] The above are merely embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present invention are included in the scope of the claims of the present invention to be approved.

Claims

1. A method for dynamic quantitative assessment of safety risks in distribution network engineering operations, characterized in that: The method comprises: Obtain inherent attribute information, operation scenario information, and on-site personnel violation information of distribution network engineering operations; Based on the inherent attribute information and the set basic class indicators, a risk quantitative assessment is performed on the inherent attribute information to determine the risk probability value of the basic class indicators; Based on the operation scene information and the set objective variable indicators, a risk quantitative assessment is performed on the operation scene information to determine the risk probability value of the objective variable indicators; Based on the on-site personnel violation information and the set dynamic controllable indicators, a risk quantitative assessment of the on-site personnel violation information is performed to determine the risk probability value of the dynamic controllable indicators; Based on the risk probability values ​​of the basic indicators, the risk probability values ​​of the objective variable indicators, the risk probability values ​​of the dynamically controllable indicators, and the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation, the safety risk of the distribution network engineering operation is evaluated.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The inherent attributes of the distribution network engineering operation include the operation risk level, the number of high-risk processes, the total duration of high-risk processes and the number of high-risk processes in parallel; The step of quantitatively assessing the risk of the inherent attribute information based on the inherent attribute information and the set basic class indicators to determine the risk probability value of the basic class indicators includes: Based on the operation risk level, a risk level quantification processing formula is used to calculate the operation risk quantification basic value corresponding to the operation risk level; Based on the number of high-risk processes, the total duration of the high-risk processes, and the number of high-risk processes in parallel, respectively obtain a risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes, a risk value corresponding to the total duration of the high-risk processes, and a risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes in parallel; The risk probability value of the basic indicator is obtained by multiplying the quantitative basic value of the operation risk, the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes, the risk value corresponding to the total duration of the high-risk processes, and the risk value corresponding to the number of parallel high-risk processes.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The step of respectively obtaining, based on the number of high-risk processes, the total duration of the high-risk processes, and the number of high-risk processes in parallel, a risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes, a risk value corresponding to the total duration of the high-risk processes, and a risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes in parallel, comprises: Based on the number of high-risk processes, obtaining the risk value corresponding to the number of high-risk processes from the corresponding relationship between the number of high-risk processes and the risk value; Based on the total duration of the high-risk process, obtaining the risk value corresponding to the total duration of the high-risk process from the corresponding relationship between the total duration of the high-risk process and the risk value; Based on the number of parallel processes with high risks, a risk value corresponding to the number of parallel processes with high risks is obtained from a corresponding relationship between the number of parallel processes with high risks and the risk value.

4. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The risk level quantification processing formula satisfies the following formula: Among them, i represents the operation risk level, n represents the nth process, and j represents the superposition value. It represents the quantitative basic value of the operation risk of the nth process with operation risk level i.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The operation scene information includes special operation index information and multiple target natural environment information; The risk quantitative assessment of the operation scene information based on the operation scene information and the set objective variable indicators to determine the risk probability value of the objective variable indicators includes: Based on the special operation indicator information, determining the risk value corresponding to the special operation indicator information from the corresponding relationship between the special operation indicator and the risk value; Based on the objective variable indicators, each natural environment information is classified into a level to obtain a risk level of each natural environment information; Determine a target risk level for each target natural environment information from the risk level of each natural environment information; Based on the target risk level of each target natural environment information, the risk value corresponding to each target natural environment information is calculated using the natural environment information quantification processing formula; The risk probability value of the objective variable indicator is taken as the product of the risk values ​​corresponding to the multiple target natural environment information and the risk value corresponding to the special operation indicator information.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The on-site personnel violation information includes multiple violations and the duration and number of occurrences of multiple violations; The risk quantitative assessment of the on-site personnel violation information based on the on-site personnel violation information and the set dynamic controllable indicators, and determining the risk probability value of the dynamic controllable indicators, includes: Based on the dynamic controllable indicators, the violation information of on-site personnel is analyzed to obtain the risk level value of each violation; Multiply the duration, number of occurrences and risk level of each violation to obtain the risk value corresponding to each violation; Based on multiple violations, the risk value corresponding to each violation is multiplied to obtain the risk probability value of the dynamic controllable indicator.

7. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 6, characterized in that: The risk probability value of the basic indicators, the risk probability value of the objective variable indicators, the risk probability value of the dynamically controllable indicators, and the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation are used to evaluate the safety risk of the distribution network engineering operation, including: Based on the risk probability values ​​of the basic indicators, the risk probability values ​​of the objective variable indicators and the risk probability values ​​of the dynamically controllable indicators, the safety risk quantification coefficient of the distribution network engineering operation is obtained by using the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation; Based on the safety risk quantification coefficient, determining the risk level of the distribution network engineering operation from preset distribution network engineering operation risk levels; Based on the risk level of the distribution network engineering operation, the safety risk of the distribution network engineering operation is evaluated.

8. The method according to claim 7, characterized in that The risk probability value based on the basic indicators, the risk probability value of the objective variable indicators and the risk probability value of the dynamically controllable indicators, using the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation, to obtain the safety risk quantification coefficient of the distribution network engineering operation, includes: Inputting the risk probability value of the basic indicators, the risk probability value of the objective variable indicators and the risk probability value of the dynamically controllable indicators into the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation; Based on the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation, the risk probability value of the basic indicator, the risk probability value of the objective variable indicator and the risk probability value of the dynamically controllable indicator are multiplied to output the safety risk quantification coefficient of the distribution network engineering operation.

9. The method according to claim 8, characterized in that The safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation satisfies the following formula: P=P1×P2×P3 Among them, P is the quantitative coefficient of safety risk of distribution network engineering operations, P1 is the risk probability value of basic indicators, P2 is the risk probability value of objective variable indicators, and P3 is the risk probability value of dynamic controllable indicators.

10. A dynamic quantitative assessment system for safety risks of distribution network engineering operations, characterized in that: The system comprises: An information acquisition unit, used to obtain inherent attribute information, operation scene information, and on-site personnel violation information of distribution network engineering operations; A basic indicator risk probability determination unit, configured to quantitatively evaluate the risk of the inherent attribute information based on the inherent attribute information and the set basic indicator, and determine the risk probability value of the basic indicator; An objective variable indicator risk probability determination unit, based on the operation scene information and the set objective variable indicators, performs a risk quantitative assessment on the operation scene information and determines a risk probability value of the objective variable indicator; A dynamic controllable indicator risk probability determination unit, configured to quantitatively evaluate the risk of the on-site personnel violation information based on the on-site personnel violation information and the set dynamic controllable indicators, and determine the risk probability value of the dynamic controllable indicators; The safety risk assessment unit is used to assess the safety risk of the distribution network engineering operation based on the risk probability value of the basic indicators, the risk probability value of the objective variable indicators, the risk probability value of the dynamically controllable indicators, and the safety risk quantification coefficient calculation model of the distribution network engineering operation.

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