Energy supply transformation level quantitative evaluation method

Abstract

The invention provides an energy supply transformation level quantitative evaluation method, which comprises the steps of establishing a total index system for energy supply transformation level quantitative evaluation based on an energy supply target; according to the evaluation object range, the property of each evaluation object and the evaluation time frequency, combining the credible underlying index database resources to construct an energy supply evaluation index system; and performing energy supply transformation level quantitative evaluation on each evaluation object in the evaluation object range to obtain an energy supply transformation total index of each evaluation object. The method has the advantages that quantitative evaluation can be comprehensively, systematically and objectively carried out on energy supply transformation conditions of different evaluation objects, energy supply transformation of the corresponding evaluation objects in the next stage is guided, and energy supply transformation in the energy production transformation process and the energy transportation supply process is promoted; and the transformation of the whole energy system is accelerated.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of energy supply quantitative evaluation, and specifically relates to a method for quantitative evaluation of energy supply transformation level. Background Art

[0002] Energy is the foundation and driving force of the progress of human civilization. At present, the energy production and utilization methods based mainly on fossil energy are gradually showing their drawbacks, and challenges such as energy security, climate change, and environmental pollution are becoming increasingly severe.

[0003] Energy supply transformation is an important dimension in energy transformation and plays an important role in energy transformation. In the existing technology, qualitative evaluation methods are generally used to qualitatively evaluate the energy supply transformation in different regions, which has great limitations. It is of great significance to comprehensively, systematically and objectively conduct quantitative evaluation of the energy supply transformation in different regions, so as to guide the energy supply structure and total energy supply of the corresponding regions in the next stage. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the defects of the prior art, the present invention provides a quantitative evaluation method for the level of energy supply transformation, which can effectively solve the above problems.

[0005] The technical solution adopted by the present invention is as follows:

[0006] The present invention provides a method for quantitatively evaluating the level of energy supply transformation, comprising the following steps:

[0007] Step S1, determining the energy supply target as: promoting the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system; based on the energy supply target, comprehensively analyzing the key factors affecting the level of energy supply reform and transformation, and establishing a general indicator system for quantitative evaluation of the level of energy supply reform and transformation; the general indicator system includes a target layer, a criterion layer and an indicator layer according to a hierarchical structure; the target layer is the total energy supply indicator; the criterion layer includes a number of primary energy supply evaluation indicators; the indicator layer includes a number of secondary energy supply evaluation indicators;

[0008] Step S2, determine the scope of evaluation objects and the evaluation time and frequency according to the evaluation requirements;

[0009] Step S3, according to the scope of evaluation objects, the properties of each evaluation object in the scope of evaluation objects, and the evaluation time frequency, combined with the trusted underlying indicator database resources, select a number of appropriate first-level energy supply evaluation indicators and second-level energy supply evaluation indicators from the overall indicator system to construct an energy supply evaluation indicator system corresponding to the current evaluation needs;

[0010] Step S4, according to the evaluation time frequency and the energy supply evaluation index system, quantitatively evaluate the energy supply transformation level of each evaluation object in the evaluation object range, and obtain the total energy supply transformation index ERI of each evaluation object in each evaluation period supply .

[0011] Preferably, the process of establishing the overall indicator system is as follows:

[0012] Step S1.1, taking the total energy supply index as the root node;

[0013] Step S1.2, comprehensively analyzing the energy production and conversion process and the energy transportation and supply process, selecting a number of energy supply effect evaluation dimensions that match the energy supply target, and each energy supply effect evaluation dimension is used as a primary energy supply evaluation indicator;

[0014] Step S1.3, in each energy supply effect evaluation dimension, further analyze the energy production and conversion process and the energy transportation and supply process to obtain several key factors affecting the energy supply effect evaluation in this dimension as the secondary energy supply evaluation index of the primary energy supply evaluation index corresponding to the energy supply effect evaluation dimension;

[0015] Thus, the overall index system is established.

[0016] Preferably, the primary energy supply evaluation index includes an energy supply cleanliness evaluation index, an energy supply low-carbon evaluation index, an energy supply security evaluation index and an energy supply high efficiency evaluation index.

[0017] Preferably, the secondary energy supply evaluation indicators under each primary energy supply evaluation indicator are determined from the aspects of energy production structure, production system and market mechanism.

[0018] Preferably, the secondary energy supply evaluation indicators under the energy supply cleanliness evaluation indicators include: renewable energy terminal consumption proportion evaluation indicators, clean energy project development barrier evaluation indicators, renewable energy installed capacity annual increase evaluation indicators, per capita renewable energy power generation evaluation indicators and renewable energy installed capacity scale evaluation indicators;

[0019] The secondary energy supply evaluation indicators under the energy supply low-carbon evaluation indicators include: fossil energy power generation ratio evaluation indicators and energy sector emission ratio evaluation indicators;

[0020] The secondary energy supply evaluation indicators under the energy supply security evaluation indicators include: electricity coverage evaluation indicators, population proportion evaluation indicators that mainly use clean fuels and technologies, per capita energy consumption evaluation indicators, energy self-sufficiency evaluation indicators and power supply reliability support measures evaluation indicators;

[0021] The secondary energy supply evaluation indicators under the energy supply high efficiency evaluation indicators include: power abandonment risk evaluation indicators, industrial competitiveness performance index evaluation indicators and energy intensity evaluation indicators.

[0022] Preferably, step S4 is specifically:

[0023] Step S4.1, assuming that the energy supply evaluation index system includes N primary energy supply evaluation indexes, represented by F1, F2, ..., F j ,...,F N , j = 1, 2, ..., N; for the primary energy supply evaluation index F j , with Q j Secondary energy supply evaluation index, expressed as k=1,2,...,Q j ;

[0024] Step S4.2, determine the indicator weights:

[0025] Through expert survey method, according to each primary energy supply evaluation index F1, F2, ..., F j ,...,F N The impact of the transformation of energy supply is determined by the evaluation indicators F1, F2, ..., F j ,...,F N The weights are: w1,w2,...,w j ,...,w N ;

[0026] For each primary energy supply evaluation index F j Q included j Secondary energy supply evaluation indicators According to each secondary energy supply evaluation index In its primary energy supply evaluation index F j The corresponding energy supply effect evaluation dimension determines the impact of energy supply transformation and transformation, and determines the evaluation indicators of each secondary energy supply The weights are:

[0027] Step S4.3: for each secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k , according to the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The indicator characteristics of the secondary energy supply evaluation index F are determined j,k Indicator data acquisition method and indicator data preprocessing rules;

[0028] Step S4.4, assuming that the evaluation object range has M evaluation objects, represented by evaluation object i, i = 1, 2, ..., M;

[0029] According to the index data acquisition method determined in step S4.3, each secondary energy supply evaluation index F of each evaluation object i is obtained. j,k The original index value

[0030] According to the index data preprocessing rules determined in step S4.3, the secondary energy supply evaluation index F of the evaluation object i is j,k The original index value Preprocessing is performed to obtain dimensionless quantitative standard values

[0031] Step S4.5: for each primary energy supply evaluation index F of the evaluation object i j , j = 1, 2, ..., N, using formula (1), quantitatively evaluate its energy supply transformation index

[0032]

[0033] Thus, the energy supply transformation index of each primary energy supply evaluation indicator of evaluation object i is obtained, which is expressed as follows:

[0034] Step S4.6: Use formula (2) to quantitatively evaluate the total energy supply transformation index of evaluation object i:

[0035]

[0036] This enables a quantitative evaluation of the level of energy supply transformation and change of the evaluation object i during the evaluation period.

[0037] Preferably, in step S4.3, according to the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The indicator characteristics of the secondary energy supply evaluation index F are determined j,k The indicator data acquisition method and indicator data preprocessing rules are as follows:

[0038] Method for obtaining indicator data:

[0039] If the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k It is a non-numerical indicator. According to the meaning of the indicator, the expert survey method is used to evaluate the secondary energy supply evaluation index F of each evaluation object. j,k Discretization assignment; if a secondary energy supply evaluation index F of a certain evaluation object j,kIn case of missing values, the analogy method is preferred for assignment, that is, the secondary energy supply evaluation index F of the evaluation object with similar situation is j,k The value of is assigned to the missing object; if there is no other evaluation object with similar situation, then the evaluation object is assigned the value of the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The performance on the other evaluation objects is assigned the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The characteristic values ​​of , including maximum, minimum, mean and median;

[0040] If the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k If it is a numerical indicator, its value is directly used as the secondary energy supply evaluation indicator F j,k The original indicator value of

[0041] The index data preprocessing rules are as follows: According to the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The characteristics and credibility of the index are determined comprehensively. Specifically, if it is a numerical evaluation index with high credibility, the shoulder-pole linear method is used for data preprocessing, otherwise the hierarchical equalization method is used for data preprocessing.

[0042] Preferably, in step S4.4, the secondary energy supply evaluation index F of the evaluation object i is j,k The original index value Preprocessing is performed to obtain dimensionless quantitative standard values Specifically:

[0043] Step S4.4.1, determine each secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The positive and negative correlation of

[0044] If the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k When the growth rate is high, the energy supply transformation is promoted, then the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k It is positively correlated with the energy supply transformation target. j,k It is a positive correlation indicator;

[0045] On the contrary, if the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k When the growth is hindered, the transformation of energy supply will be hindered. Then the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k It is negatively correlated with the energy supply transformation target. j,k It is a negative correlation indicator;

[0046] Step S4.4.2, according to the index data preprocessing rules, for the secondary energy supply evaluation index F that uses the shoulder pole linear method for data preprocessing j,k, execute step S4.4.3; for the secondary energy supply evaluation index F using the hierarchical equalization method for data preprocessing j,k , execute step S4.4.4;

[0047] Step S4.4.3, data preprocessing using the shoulder pole linear method:

[0048] For M evaluation objects, their secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The original index values ​​are: Sure The maximum value MAX(I j,k ) and the minimum value MIN(I j,k ); if the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k is a positive correlation index, and formula (3) is used for data preprocessing. If the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k As a negative correlation index, formula (4) is used for data preprocessing to convert the original index value Normalized to a dimensionless quantitative standard value based on 100

[0049]

[0050] Step S4.4.4, data preprocessing using the hierarchical equalization method:

[0051] According to each secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The positive and negative correlation of the evaluation object i is calculated by using the corresponding hierarchical equalization method to preprocess the data. j,k The original index value Standardization to obtain dimensionless quantitative standard value Specifically include:

[0052] ① For M evaluation objects, determine each secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k P j,k Levels, namely, level 1, level 2, ..., level P j,k Level; where the level number P j,k Determined by expert survey method, and 1<P j,k ≤M;

[0053] right After the original index values ​​are arranged in descending order, the ranking number of the original index value ranked first is 1, and the ranking number is increased in sequence. If the values ​​are the same, the same number is given, and the subsequent corresponding numbers are cancelled, so as to determine the ranking number of each original index value. The ranking number is expressed as:

[0054] ② Determine the original index value by the following method Level

[0055] A: Determine the original indicator value Level The process:

[0056] A1, initialize the intermediate variable set is empty;

[0057] A2, judge whether condition 1 is true, if true, then add Assign P j,k -1; if not, add to the intermediate variable Assign P j,k , then execute A3;

[0058] Condition 1:

[0059] A3, judge whether condition 2 is true, if true, then add Assign P j,k -2; if not, the intermediate variable Assign the value of to the intermediate variable Then execute A4;

[0060] Condition 2:

[0061] A4, determine whether condition 3 is true. If true, add the value to the intermediate variable Assign P j,k -3; if not, the intermediate variable Assign the value of to the intermediate variable

[0062] Condition 3:

[0063] And so on

[0064] Judgment Condition P j,k -1 is true, if true, assign 1 to the intermediate variable V1; if not true, assign the value of the intermediate variable V2 to the intermediate variable V1, and then execute B;

[0065] Condition P j,k -1:

[0066] B, using formula (5), get the original index value Level

[0067]

[0068] ③ If the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k is a positive correlation index, and formula (6) is used for data preprocessing. If the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k As a negative correlation index, formula (7) is used for data preprocessing to convert the original index value Normalized to a dimensionless quantitative standard value based on 100

[0069]

[0070]

[0071] This step is finished.

[0072] Preferably, for each primary energy supply evaluation index, including the energy supply cleanliness evaluation index, the energy supply low-carbon evaluation index, the energy supply security evaluation index and the energy supply high efficiency evaluation index, the weights are 0.2, 0.2, 0.4 and 0.2 respectively.

[0073] Preferably, for each secondary energy supply evaluation indicator, its relevance, standardization method, weight, indicator meaning and original indicator value type are as follows:

[0074] Table 1. Related parameter values ​​of secondary energy supply evaluation indicators

[0075]

[0076]

[0077] Among them: the evaluation objects with energy self-sufficiency rate greater than 100% are processed by the hierarchical equalization method; the evaluation objects with energy self-sufficiency rate less than or equal to 100% are processed by the shoulder pole linear method;

[0078] According to the relevant parameter values ​​of the secondary energy supply evaluation indicators in Table 1, a quantitative evaluation of the energy supply transformation level of the evaluation object is carried out.

[0079] The quantitative evaluation method for the energy supply transformation level provided by the present invention has the following advantages:

[0080] The quantitative evaluation method for the level of energy supply transformation and transition adopted in the present invention accurately and comprehensively performs quantitative evaluation on each evaluation object in different dimensions, obtains the energy supply transformation and transition index of each dimension, and then weights the energy supply transformation and transition index of each dimension to obtain the total energy supply transformation and transition index of each evaluation object, thereby comprehensively, systematically and objectively performing quantitative evaluation on the energy supply transformation and transition situation of different evaluation objects, guiding the energy supply transformation and transition of the corresponding evaluation objects in the next stage, promoting the transformation and transition of energy supply in the energy production and conversion process and the energy transportation and supply process, and accelerating the transformation and transition of the entire energy system.

[0081] In addition, the present invention realizes the organic combination of unified evaluation and differentiated evaluation of differentiated objects with huge differences in objective conditions such as resources, land area, population size, etc. through the coupling of the shoulder-pole linear method and the hierarchical equality method. Under such a method, on the one hand, the overall index can realize comprehensive, comprehensive, unified and fair evaluation and incentives for differentiated evaluation objects; on the other hand, the low-level index can realize more differentiated and specific evaluation, which is also conducive to improving the fairness of the evaluation and promoting its incentive function. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0082] Figure 1 A flow chart of the method for quantitatively evaluating the level of energy supply reform and transformation provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0083] In order to make the technical problems, technical solutions and beneficial effects solved by the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention is further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are only used to explain the present invention and are not used to limit the present invention.

[0084] See also Figure 1 The present invention provides a method for quantitatively evaluating the level of energy supply transformation, comprising the following steps:

[0085] Step S1, determining the energy supply target as: promoting the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system; based on the energy supply target, comprehensively analyzing the key factors affecting the level of energy supply reform and transformation, and establishing a general indicator system for quantitative evaluation of the level of energy supply reform and transformation; the general indicator system includes a target layer, a criterion layer and an indicator layer according to a hierarchical structure; the target layer is the total energy supply indicator; the criterion layer includes a number of primary energy supply evaluation indicators; the indicator layer includes a number of secondary energy supply evaluation indicators;

[0086] The establishment process of the overall indicator system is as follows:

[0087] Step S1.1, taking the total energy supply index as the root node;

[0088] Step S1.2, comprehensively analyzing the energy production and conversion process and the energy transportation and supply process, selecting a number of energy supply effect evaluation dimensions that match the energy supply target, and each energy supply effect evaluation dimension is used as a primary energy supply evaluation indicator;

[0089] Step S1.3, in each energy supply effect evaluation dimension, further analyze the energy production and conversion process and the energy transportation and supply process to obtain several key factors affecting the energy supply effect evaluation in this dimension as the secondary energy supply evaluation index of the primary energy supply evaluation index corresponding to the energy supply effect evaluation dimension;

[0090] Thus, the overall index system is established.

[0091] Specifically, energy supply comprehensively considers whether the energy production and conversion process and the energy transportation and supply process are clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient. The underlying indicators of the assessment (i.e., secondary energy supply evaluation indicators) are mainly screened from aspects such as energy production structure, production system, and market mechanism, and encourage the use of clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy production and supply methods.

[0092] Specifically, the main indicators include whether the primary energy production structure is in line with the direction of transformation and development, the carbon emission intensity generated in the process of energy production and transmission, the energy production conversion efficiency, the security level of energy supply, the quality and reliability of energy supply, the power coverage rate, etc. Therefore, the first-level energy supply evaluation indicators of the energy supply transformation index system include energy supply cleanliness evaluation indicators, energy supply low-carbon evaluation indicators, energy supply security evaluation indicators and energy supply high efficiency evaluation indicators. The weight distribution principle is: the weight of each dimension is the same or determined by expert survey method.

[0093] Secondary energy supply evaluation index design:

[0094] The first dimension, cleanliness: The core of clean energy supply is to build a new energy system with renewable energy as the main body, including solar energy, wind energy, hydropower, biomass energy, etc. Therefore, this dimension includes the proportion of renewable energy terminal consumption, obstacles to the development of clean energy projects, annual increase in renewable energy installed capacity, per capita renewable energy power generation, and renewable energy installed capacity.

[0095] The second dimension is low carbon: low carbon energy aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and carbon footprint. On the one hand, it examines the proportion of low carbon energy in energy supply, and on the other hand, it examines the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions and emission intensity during energy mining, processing, conversion, and transportation. Therefore, indicators such as the proportion of fossil energy power generation and the proportion of emissions in the energy field are used to characterize the low carbon development of energy supply.

[0096] The third dimension, security: the connotation of energy security is the reliability, stability, continuity, security, diversity, fairness, etc. of energy supply, including indicators such as energy self-sufficiency rate, energy supply stability, electricity supply coverage rate, electricity supply stability, clean kitchen energy use, etc. Therefore, the energy supply security dimension is mainly evaluated by indicators such as electricity coverage rate (population), proportion of the population mainly using clean fuels and technologies, per capita energy consumption, energy self-sufficiency rate, and power supply reliability support measures.

[0097] The fourth dimension, high efficiency: high efficiency includes the high efficiency from primary energy to terminal energy, as well as the high efficiency from primary energy to effective energy. It measures the efficiency of energy development, conversion, transmission and utilization, so as to reduce ineffective energy consumption and waste and improve the overall energy utilization efficiency. At the same time, it examines whether the market plays a role in resource allocation, including indicators such as energy intensity, risk of power abandonment, energy transmission efficiency, energy intensive utilization capacity, and the role of market mechanisms to ensure energy efficiency. Therefore, indicators such as power abandonment risk, industrial competitiveness performance index, and energy intensity are used to evaluate the high efficiency dimension of energy supply.

[0098] To sum up, the overall indicator system is:

[0099] The primary energy supply evaluation indicators include energy supply cleanliness evaluation indicators, energy supply low-carbon evaluation indicators, energy supply security evaluation indicators and energy supply efficiency evaluation indicators.

[0100] The secondary energy supply evaluation indicators under the energy supply cleanliness evaluation indicators include: renewable energy terminal consumption proportion evaluation indicators, clean energy project development barrier evaluation indicators, renewable energy installed capacity annual increase evaluation indicators, per capita renewable energy power generation evaluation indicators and renewable energy installed capacity scale evaluation indicators;

[0101] The secondary energy supply evaluation indicators under the energy supply low-carbon evaluation indicators include: fossil energy power generation ratio evaluation indicators and energy sector emission ratio evaluation indicators;

[0102] The secondary energy supply evaluation indicators under the energy supply security evaluation indicators include: electricity coverage evaluation indicators, population proportion evaluation indicators that mainly use clean fuels and technologies, per capita energy consumption evaluation indicators, energy self-sufficiency evaluation indicators and power supply reliability support measures evaluation indicators;

[0103] The secondary energy supply evaluation indicators under the energy supply high efficiency evaluation indicators include: power abandonment risk evaluation indicators, industrial competitiveness performance index evaluation indicators and energy intensity evaluation indicators.

[0104] Step S2, determine the scope of evaluation objects and the evaluation time and frequency according to the evaluation requirements;

[0105] For example, if the level of energy supply transformation and change in countries / regions around the world needs to be evaluated, the impact of factors such as the development status, population, and energy production and consumption of each country / region on the global energy system should be comprehensively considered to determine the scope of the evaluation countries: because the evaluation of the national scope needs to cover all individuals of a category of objects, the data collection cost is too high, and only evaluating a small number of evaluation countries is not representative enough, because a balance needs to be struck between coverage and efficiency. For the evaluation countries in the evaluation national scope, the characteristic indicators of a certain type of energy supply transformation and change level need to cover a certain proportion of the evaluation countries of this type. For example: when evaluating countries / regions around the world, the evaluation national scope needs to cover countries with more than 85% of the global GDP. In this case, the union of the top 50 countries in terms of global GDP and population in 2022 can be taken as the evaluation national scope; each evaluation country in the evaluation national scope is an evaluation object.

[0106] The evaluation frequency is determined according to the evaluation needs, for example, five years, every two years, every year, every quarter, every six months, every month, etc.

[0107] Step S3, according to the scope of evaluation objects, the properties of each evaluation object in the scope of evaluation objects, and the evaluation time frequency, combined with the trusted underlying indicator database resources, select a number of appropriate first-level energy supply evaluation indicators and second-level energy supply evaluation indicators from the overall indicator system to construct an energy supply evaluation indicator system corresponding to the current evaluation needs;

[0108] Step S4, according to the evaluation time frequency and the energy supply evaluation index system, quantitatively evaluate the energy supply transformation level of each evaluation object in the evaluation object range, and obtain the total energy supply transformation index ERI of each evaluation object in each evaluation period supply .

[0109] Step S4 is specifically as follows:

[0110] Step S4.1, assuming that the energy supply evaluation index system includes N primary energy supply evaluation indexes, represented by F1, F2, ..., F j ,...,F N , j = 1, 2, ..., N; for the primary energy supply evaluation index F j , with Q j Secondary energy supply evaluation index, expressed as k=1,2,...,Q j ;

[0111] Step S4.2, determine the indicator weights:

[0112] Through expert survey method, according to each primary energy supply evaluation index F1, F2, ..., F j ,...,F N The impact of the transformation of energy supply is determined by the evaluation indicators F1, F2, ..., F j ,...,F N The weights are: w1,w2,...,w j ,...,w N ;

[0113] For each primary energy supply evaluation index F j Q included j Secondary energy supply evaluation indicators According to each secondary energy supply evaluation index In its primary energy supply evaluation index F j The corresponding energy supply effect evaluation dimension determines the impact of energy supply transformation and transformation, and determines the evaluation indicators of each secondary energy supply The weights are:

[0114] Step S4.3: for each secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k , according to the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The indicator characteristics of the secondary energy supply evaluation index F are determined j,k Indicator data acquisition method and indicator data preprocessing rules;

[0115] In this step, as a specific implementation method, the indicator data acquisition method is:

[0116] If the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k It is a non-numerical indicator. According to the meaning of the indicator, the expert survey method is used to evaluate the secondary energy supply evaluation index F of each evaluation object. j,k Discretization assignment; if a secondary energy supply evaluation index F of a certain evaluation object j,k In case of missing values, the analogy method is preferred for assignment, that is, the secondary energy supply evaluation index F of the evaluation object with similar situation is j,k The value of is assigned to the missing object; if there is no other evaluation object with similar situation, then the evaluation object is assigned the value of the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The performance on the other evaluation objects is assigned the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The characteristic values ​​of , including maximum, minimum, mean and median;

[0117] If the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,kIf it is a numerical indicator, its value is directly used as the secondary energy supply evaluation indicator F j,k The original indicator value of

[0118] The index data preprocessing rules are as follows: According to the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The characteristics and credibility of the index are determined comprehensively. Specifically, if it is a numerical evaluation index with high credibility, the shoulder-pole linear method is used for data preprocessing, otherwise the hierarchical equalization method is used for data preprocessing.

[0119] In practical applications, as a preferred method, the following rules can be used to determine the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k For high-credibility indicators or medium-credibility indicators, for high-credibility indicators, the shoulder-pole linear method is used for data preprocessing; for medium-credibility indicators, the hierarchical equalization method is used for data preprocessing.

[0120] (1) For non-numerical secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k ,Since the value is assigned by expert survey method, it is considered to be a medium credibility indicator;

[0121] (2) For the numerical secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k , according to its data source, determine its credibility category:

[0122] ① If it comes from a high-level accreditation institution or organization, and the number of valuable evaluation objects of the indicator is greater than 2 / 3 of the total number of evaluation objects, the indicator is considered to be a high-credibility indicator;

[0123] ② If it comes from a low-level accreditation institution or organization, and the number of valuable evaluation objects of this indicator is greater than the average number of valuable evaluation objects of all indicators of all evaluation objects, and greater than 2 / 3 of the number of all evaluation objects, this indicator is considered to be a high-credibility indicator;

[0124] For situation ②, for easier understanding and explanation, an example is given below:

[0125] Assume that in the energy consumption evaluation index system, the total number of secondary energy supply evaluation indicators is n, namely: the first secondary energy supply evaluation indicator, the second secondary energy supply evaluation indicator, …, the nth secondary energy supply evaluation indicator;

[0126] The number of evaluation objects in this evaluation is M. For the secondary energy supply evaluation index of renewable energy installed capacity evaluation index in the energy supply evaluation index system, which comes from a low-level recognition institution or organization, among the M evaluation objects, the number of evaluation objects that directly provide the index value of this index is n1;

[0127] Among the M evaluation objects, the number of evaluation objects that directly provide the index values ​​of the first to the nth secondary energy supply evaluation indexes are: y1, y2, ..., yn; then the average value y = (y1 + y2 + ... + yn) / n;

[0128] Therefore, if n1>y, and n1>M*2 / 3, the renewable energy installed capacity evaluation index is a high-credibility index.

[0129] In this step, the valued evaluation object of the indicator refers to the evaluation object that can directly provide the indicator value of the indicator, rather than the indicator being a blank value and determined through corresponding assignment rules.

[0130] For the numerical secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k , if it does not belong to the above situations ① and ②, it is a medium credibility indicator.

[0131] Step S4.4, assuming that the evaluation object range has M evaluation objects, represented by evaluation object i, i = 1, 2, ..., M;

[0132] According to the index data acquisition method determined in step S4.3, each secondary energy supply evaluation index F of each evaluation object i is obtained. j,k The original index value

[0133] According to the index data preprocessing rules determined in step S4.3, the secondary energy supply evaluation index F of the evaluation object i is j,k The original index value Preprocessing is performed to obtain dimensionless quantitative standard values

[0134] The specific steps of this step are:

[0135] Step S4.4.1, determine each secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The positive and negative correlation of

[0136] If the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k When the growth rate is high, the energy supply transformation is promoted, then the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k It is positively correlated with the energy supply transformation target. j,k It is a positive correlation indicator;

[0137] On the contrary, if the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k When the growth is hindered, the transformation of energy supply will be hindered. Then the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k It is negatively correlated with the energy supply transformation target. j,k It is a negative correlation indicator;

[0138] Step S4.4.2, according to the index data preprocessing rules, for the secondary energy supply evaluation index F that uses the shoulder pole linear method for data preprocessing j,k , execute step S4.4.3; for the secondary energy supply evaluation index F using the hierarchical equalization method for data preprocessing j,k , execute step S4.4.4;

[0139] Step S4.4.3, data preprocessing using the shoulder pole linear method:

[0140] For M evaluation objects, their secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The original index values ​​are: Sure The maximum value MAX(I j,k ) and the minimum value MIN(I j,k ); if the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k is a positive correlation index, and formula (3) is used for data preprocessing. If the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k As a negative correlation index, formula (4) is used for data preprocessing to convert the original index value Normalized to a dimensionless quantitative standard value based on 100

[0141]

[0142] The method of standardizing the original index values ​​of the secondary energy supply evaluation indexes of all evaluation objects by the carrying pole linear method adopted in the present invention has the following advantages:

[0143] (1) When standardizing the original index values, the positive and negative correlations of the original index values ​​are taken into account at the same time, which can intuitively and effectively reflect the characteristics of each secondary energy supply evaluation index; (2) The standardization method of the present invention can reflect the impact of the absolute difference in the number of indicators of the secondary energy supply evaluation indicators as the underlying energy supply evaluation indicators on the final evaluation results; (3) It can effectively reflect the value of category indicators such as "intensity", "density" and "proportion"; (4) The operation is simple and does not require complex expert survey methods.

[0144] Step S4.4.4, data preprocessing using the hierarchical equalization method:

[0145] According to each secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The positive and negative correlation of the evaluation object i is calculated by using the corresponding hierarchical equalization method to preprocess the data. j,k The original index value Standardization to obtain dimensionless quantitative standard value Specifically include:

[0146] ① For M evaluation objects, determine each secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k P j,k Levels, namely, level 1, level 2, ..., level P j,k Level; where the level number P j,k Determined by expert survey method, and 1<P j,k ≤M;

[0147] right After the original index values ​​are arranged in descending order, the ranking number of the original index value ranked first is 1, and the ranking number is increased in sequence. If the values ​​are the same, the same number is given, and the subsequent corresponding numbers are cancelled, so as to determine the ranking number of each original index value. The ranking number is expressed as:

[0148] ② Use the following method to determine the original index value Level

[0149] A: Determine the original indicator value Level The process:

[0150] A1, initialize the intermediate variable set is empty;

[0151] A2, judge whether condition 1 is true, if true, then add Assign P j,k -1; if not true, then add to the intermediate variable Assign P j,k , then execute A3;

[0152] Condition 1:

[0153] A3, judge whether condition 2 is true, if true, then add Assign P j,k -2; if not, the intermediate variable Assign the value of to the intermediate variable Then execute A4;

[0154] Condition 2:

[0155] A4, determine whether condition 3 is true. If true, add the value to the intermediate variable Assign P j,k -3; if not, the intermediate variable Assign the value of to the intermediate variable

[0156] Condition 3:

[0157] And so on

[0158] Judgment Condition P j,k -1 is true, if true, assign 1 to the intermediate variable V1; if not true, assign the value of the intermediate variable V2 to the intermediate variable V1, and then execute B;

[0159] Condition P j,k -1:

[0160] B, using formula (5), get the original index value Level

[0161]

[0162] ③ If the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k is a positive correlation index, and formula (6) is used for data preprocessing. If the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k As a negative correlation index, formula (7) is used for data preprocessing to convert the original index value Normalized to a dimensionless quantitative standard value based on 100

[0163]

[0164] For the same reason, if in step ① Arrange in ascending order, then when the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k is a positive correlation index, and formula (7) is used for data standardization; when the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k It is a negative correlation indicator, and formula (6) is used to standardize the data.

[0165] This step is finished.

[0166] It should be noted that the hierarchical equalization method provided by the present invention for standardizing the secondary energy supply evaluation index is an important innovation of the present invention, and has the following advantages in particular:

[0167] 1. Under the premise of ensuring the differentiation of indicators, the absolute difference in the order of magnitude of the underlying indicators caused by differences in resource endowment, area, and population is weakened, which has a huge impact on the energy supply transformation index of each evaluation object. For example, indicators such as solar power generation and installed capacity are highly correlated with factors such as resource endowment and the area occupied by the evaluation object. Although the total amount of evaluation objects with poor resource endowment or small area may be much lower than that of other objects, their per capita supply or supply per unit area may not be lower than that of objects with relatively high total supply, that is, their "supply intensity" is relatively low. Therefore, the total number of levels of the indicator P is adjusted by the method of the present invention. j,k This will allow both to get the same score, which is more fair and scientific than simply assuming that objects with a high total solar power supply (electricity, power) or a high supply intensity will definitely get a high score. Specifically, the total number of grades P j,k If there are too many, the ability to weaken the score differences caused by resource endowment and area differences will be weak. The total number of levels P j,k The smaller the value, the stronger the ability to weaken the score differences caused by resource endowment and area differences. 1<P j,k ≤M.

[0168] 2. When P j,k When it is close to or equal to M, the total energy supply transformation index can be fully utilized. The incentive and guidance function of the final evaluation result can motivate each evaluation object to improve its own ranking, that is, the relative value of the data to obtain a higher excess score. In the process of multiple rounds of evaluation, it can also motivate each evaluation object to compete with each other and accelerate the process of transformation. Even when using the pole linear method, if the maximum value of a certain indicator MAX(I j,k ) and the minimum value MIN(I j,k ) is relatively large. At this time, the lower evaluation object surpasses the higher evaluation object, which has a very small impact on the evaluation result, but its actual impact and significance on the transformation of the evaluation object are huge. Therefore, in this case, appropriate excess incentives should be given, using the hierarchical equalization method, and making P j,k When it is close to or equal to M, it can realize excess incentives and competition between incentive evaluation objects, thus accelerating the process of reform and transformation.

[0169] Example: A resource endowment or land area related indicator F1 (such as the total supply of clean energy) is (MAX(I i,j )-MIN(I i,j ))=10 ^5 However, the F1 values ​​of most evaluation objects are lower than 10 ^3At this time, if the shoulder pole linear method is used, no matter how hard each evaluation object tries, the change in its score on the F1 index will not be greater than 10 ^3 / (MAX(I i,j )-MIN(I i,j ))=10 ^3 / 10 ^5 = 1%, which will greatly undermine the efforts of the evaluated object on this indicator; but using the hierarchical equalization method to make P j,k =M, which is equivalent to dividing M evaluation objects into M levels for evaluation. For example, if M = 25, then each time the ranking rises by 1, a 4% reward can be obtained on the indicator, which is much larger than the upper limit of 1% of the shoulder pole linear method. The F1 values ​​of most cases are lower than 10. ^3 The evaluation objects can get rewards linearly related to their rankings as they move up in the rankings. In addition, for the evaluation objects with weak resources and small land area, they themselves are not motivated enough to change and transform. They generally believe that change and transformation are the obligations of objects with strong resources, population and comprehensive strength. Therefore, the efforts of these evaluation objects have little impact on global (global) change and transformation. However, there are many such evaluation objects, and their aggregate impact on the world (global) is huge. If their confidence in change and transformation is hit by evaluation methods similar to the carrying pole linear method, and their efforts are not appropriately over-rewarded, global (global) change and transformation will be difficult to achieve.

[0170] 3. Give P j,k Setting a smaller value can reduce the impact of individual low-quality data on the final evaluation results. That is, although the low-quality data value itself has a certain deviation, its score is the same as that of the evaluation objects with similar rankings, which can eliminate the impact of individual inaccurate data on the evaluation results.

[0171] 4. You can use P j,k Adjustment, effectively adjust the corresponding index F j,k Different degrees of discrimination for each evaluation object, the total number of levels P j,k The more the number, the greater the discrimination; otherwise, the smaller the discrimination.

[0172] The quantitative evaluation method for the level of energy supply reform and transformation adopted in the present invention accurately and comprehensively conducts quantitative evaluation of each evaluation object in different dimensions, obtains the energy supply reform and transformation index of each dimension, and then weights the energy supply reform and transformation index of each dimension to obtain the total energy supply reform and transformation index of each evaluation object, thereby comprehensively, systematically and objectively conducting quantitative evaluation of the energy supply reform and transformation situation of different evaluation objects, and guiding the energy supply reform and transformation of the corresponding evaluation objects in the next stage.

[0173] In addition, the present invention realizes the organic combination of unified evaluation and differentiated evaluation of differentiated objects with huge differences in objective conditions such as resources, land area, population size, etc. through the coupling of the shoulder-pole linear method and the hierarchical equality method. Under such a method, on the one hand, the overall index can realize comprehensive, comprehensive, unified and fair evaluation and incentives for differentiated evaluation objects; on the other hand, the low-level index can realize more differentiated and specific evaluation, which is also conducive to improving the fairness of the evaluation and promoting its incentive function.

[0174] Step S4.5: for each primary energy supply evaluation index F of the evaluation object i j , j = 1, 2, ..., N, using formula (1), quantitatively evaluate its energy supply transformation index

[0175]

[0176] Thus, the energy supply transformation index of each primary energy supply evaluation indicator of evaluation object i is obtained, which is expressed as follows:

[0177] Step S4.6: Use formula (2) to quantitatively evaluate the total energy supply transformation index of evaluation object i:

[0178]

[0179] This enables a quantitative evaluation of the level of energy supply transformation and change of the evaluation object i during the evaluation period.

[0180] In the present invention, as a preferred embodiment, when evaluating the energy supply transformation index and the total energy supply transformation index of each primary energy supply evaluation index of the evaluation object i by formula (1) and formula (2), the evaluation index system and the evaluation parameters are set in the following manner:

[0181] For each primary energy supply evaluation index, including the energy supply cleanliness evaluation index, the energy supply low-carbon evaluation index, the energy supply security evaluation index and the energy supply efficiency evaluation index, the weights are 0.2, 0.2, 0.4 and 0.2 respectively.

[0182] For each secondary energy supply evaluation indicator, its relevance, standardization method, weight, indicator meaning and original indicator value type are as follows:

[0183] Table 1. Related parameter values ​​of secondary energy supply evaluation indicators

[0184]

[0185]

[0186] Among them: Since a considerable number of evaluation objects have energy self-sufficiency rates exceeding 100%, in actual applications, the evaluation objects with energy self-sufficiency rates greater than 100% are processed using the hierarchical equalization method; the evaluation objects with energy self-sufficiency rates less than or equal to 100% are processed using the shoulder pole linear method;

[0187] According to the relevant parameter values ​​of the secondary energy supply evaluation indicators in Table 1, a quantitative evaluation of the energy supply transformation level of the evaluation object is carried out.

[0188] The quantitative evaluation method for the level of energy supply transformation and transition adopted in the present invention accurately and comprehensively conducts quantitative evaluation of each evaluation object in different dimensions, obtains the energy supply transformation and transition index of each dimension, and then weights the energy supply transformation and transition index of each dimension to obtain the total energy supply transformation and transition index of each evaluation object, thereby comprehensively, systematically and objectively conducting quantitative evaluation of the energy supply transformation and transition situation of different evaluation objects, guiding the energy supply structure and total energy supply of the corresponding evaluation objects in the next stage, and promoting the transformation and transition of energy supply in the energy production and conversion process and the energy transportation and supply process.

[0189] A specific embodiment is described below:

[0190] Step S1, comprehensively analyzing the key factors affecting the level of energy supply reform and transformation, and establishing a general indicator system for quantitative evaluation of the level of energy supply reform and transformation;

[0191] Step S2, determine the scope of evaluation objects and the evaluation time and frequency according to the evaluation requirements;

[0192] In this embodiment, the evaluation object scope includes 65 countries, and each country is an evaluation object. The evaluation time frequency is once a year.

[0193] Step S3, according to the scope of evaluation objects, the properties of each evaluation object in the scope of evaluation objects, and the evaluation time frequency, combined with the trusted underlying indicator database resources, select a number of appropriate primary energy supply evaluation indicators and secondary energy supply evaluation indicators from the overall indicator system to construct an energy supply evaluation indicator system;

[0194] In order to subsequently calculate the total index of energy supply transformation and transformation for each evaluation object in each evaluation period, in this step, the indicator name and indicator definition of each secondary energy supply evaluation indicator are determined at the same time, and the indicator data acquisition method, preprocessing rules (assignment, vacancy value processing, abnormal value processing, standardization, etc.), and indicator positive and negative correlation and weight are further determined according to the indicator value type. The dimensionless quantitative standard value of each secondary energy supply evaluation indicator of each evaluation object is obtained through preprocessing.

[0195] Specifically, the evaluation objects are countries / regions around the world, the evaluation frequency is once a year, and the scope is the union of the top 65 countries in the world in terms of GDP or population. Combined with the above principles, the secondary energy supply evaluation indicators (bottom-level energy supply evaluation indicators) are obtained, and the weights of each primary energy supply evaluation indicator are determined by the expert survey method; the weights of each secondary energy supply evaluation indicator are determined by the expert survey method, and the indicator preprocessing method and rules of the secondary energy supply evaluation indicator are determined according to the indicator data characteristics: for non-numerical indicators, discretization assignment is performed according to the meaning of the indicator and possible situations, and each non-numerical indicator assignment rule is determined by the expert survey method. For the case where a few objects of a certain indicator have vacant values, the analogy method is used first to assign values, that is, the value of the evaluation object with similar situation is assigned to the missing value evaluation object; if there are no other evaluation objects with similar situation, the characteristic values ​​of the remaining evaluation objects with values ​​are assigned according to the performance of the evaluation object on the indicator (the maximum value, minimum value, average value, median, etc. are selected as appropriate). The positive or negative correlation between the indicator and the dimensionless quantitative value is determined by the direction of the indicator and the energy supply transformation goal. The indicator that promotes the transformation of energy supply is positively correlated, otherwise it is negatively correlated. The data standardization method is selected based on the characteristics of the indicator data and the credibility. For numerical indicators with high credibility, the pole linear method should be used first, otherwise the hierarchical equalization method should be used.

[0196] In this embodiment, an energy supply evaluation index system as shown in Table 1 is established, as well as the relevance, standardization method and weight (%) of each index.

[0197] Table 1. Relevant parameter values ​​of energy supply evaluation indicators

[0198]

[0199]

[0200] Special note: Because a considerable number of countries have an energy self-sufficiency rate of more than 100%, the hierarchical equalization method is used for countries with an energy self-sufficiency rate greater than 100%, and their scores are assigned a full score (i.e. 100); the shoulder-pole linear method is used for countries with an energy self-sufficiency rate less than or equal to 100%.

[0201] Step S4, according to the evaluation time frequency and the energy supply evaluation index system, quantitatively evaluate the energy supply transformation level of each evaluation object in the evaluation object range, and obtain the total energy supply transformation index ERI of each evaluation object in each evaluation period supply .

[0202] In this embodiment, as shown in Table 2, 65 countries and regions are selected as evaluation objects for analysis. When the weight values ​​of the four dimensions of clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient are 0.2, 0.2, 0.4 and 0.2 respectively, the level P of the hierarchical equalization method is j,k When both are taken as 8, the indicators and weights in Table 1 are used, and formula (1) is used to obtain the energy supply transformation index corresponding to each primary energy supply evaluation index of each evaluation object as follows; then the energy supply transformation index corresponding to each primary energy supply evaluation index of each evaluation object is weighted and summed using formula (2) to obtain the total energy supply transformation index of each evaluation object. Only the top 10 evaluation objects are shown in Table 2.

[0203] Table 2: Evaluation results

[0204]

[0205] It should be emphasized that this embodiment uses the country as the evaluation object for illustrative explanation. In actual applications, the evaluation object can also be an enterprise, region, province, etc., which is specifically set according to the evaluation requirements, and the present invention is not limited to this.

[0206] Step S5, analyzing the evaluation results: analyzing the performance of the evaluation object in the current energy supply transformation through the total energy supply transformation index of each evaluation object and the energy supply transformation index corresponding to each primary energy supply evaluation indicator of each evaluation object.

[0207] Combined with Table 2, we can draw the following conclusions: The top-ranked countries have excellent performance in clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy supply. The top-ranked countries have outstanding status or motivation for change in low-carbon energy transformation, supply security, energy efficiency, etc. The power production of the top-ranked countries is mainly renewable energy, which better guarantees the power supply of the country and provides green and clean electricity to other neighboring countries. The energy supply of most countries in the world is still dominated by fossil energy, and non-fossil energy accounts for a low proportion.

[0208] The evaluation results show that the future development direction of energy supply is, first, the development and utilization of large-scale, high-proportion renewable energy; second, the improvement of electricity supply penetration; third, with the development of renewable energy and electrification, the energy supply security of some countries with poor energy resources will be strengthened; and finally, the efficiency of energy supply will be improved, especially the intensive and large-scale transformation and utilization from primary energy to terminal energy.

[0209] The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention. It should be pointed out that for ordinary technicians in this technical field, several improvements and modifications can be made without departing from the principle of the present invention. These improvements and modifications should also be considered as the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A quantitative evaluation method for the level of energy supply transformation, characterized by: The following steps are involved: Step S1, determining the energy supply target as: promoting the construction of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system; based on the energy supply target, comprehensively analyzing the key factors affecting the level of energy supply reform and transformation, and establishing a general indicator system for quantitative evaluation of the level of energy supply reform and transformation; the general indicator system includes a target layer, a criterion layer and an indicator layer according to a hierarchical structure; the target layer is the total energy supply indicator; the criterion layer includes a number of primary energy supply evaluation indicators; the indicator layer includes a number of secondary energy supply evaluation indicators; Step S2, determine the scope of evaluation objects and the evaluation time and frequency according to the evaluation requirements; Step S3, according to the scope of evaluation objects, the properties of each evaluation object in the scope of evaluation objects, and the evaluation time frequency, combined with the trusted underlying indicator database resources, select a number of appropriate first-level energy supply evaluation indicators and second-level energy supply evaluation indicators from the overall indicator system to construct an energy supply evaluation indicator system corresponding to the current evaluation needs; Step S4, according to the evaluation time frequency and the energy supply evaluation index system, quantitatively evaluate the energy supply transformation level of each evaluation object in the evaluation object range, and obtain the total energy supply transformation index ERI of each evaluation object in each evaluation period supply .

2. The method for quantitatively evaluating the level of energy supply transformation according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The establishment process of the overall indicator system is as follows: Step S1.1, taking the total energy supply index as the root node; Step S1.2, comprehensively analyzing the energy production and conversion process and the energy transportation and supply process, selecting a number of energy supply effect evaluation dimensions that match the energy supply target, and each energy supply effect evaluation dimension is used as a primary energy supply evaluation indicator; Step S1.3, in each energy supply effect evaluation dimension, further analyze the energy production and conversion process and the energy transportation and supply process to obtain several key factors affecting the energy supply effect evaluation in this dimension as the secondary energy supply evaluation index of the primary energy supply evaluation index corresponding to the energy supply effect evaluation dimension; Thus, the overall index system is established.

3. The method for quantitatively evaluating the level of energy supply transformation according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The first-level energy supply evaluation indicators include energy supply cleanliness evaluation indicators, energy supply low-carbon evaluation indicators, energy supply security evaluation indicators and energy supply high efficiency evaluation indicators.

4. The method for quantitatively evaluating the level of energy supply transformation and reform according to claim 3 is characterized in that: From the aspects of energy production structure, production system and market mechanism, determine the secondary energy supply evaluation indicators under each primary energy supply evaluation indicator.

5. The method for quantitatively evaluating the level of energy supply transformation and reform according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The secondary energy supply evaluation indicators under the energy supply cleanliness evaluation indicators include: renewable energy terminal consumption proportion evaluation indicators, clean energy project development barrier evaluation indicators, renewable energy installed capacity annual increase evaluation indicators, per capita renewable energy power generation evaluation indicators and renewable energy installed capacity scale evaluation indicators; The secondary energy supply evaluation indicators under the energy supply low-carbon evaluation indicators include: fossil energy power generation ratio evaluation indicators and energy sector emission ratio evaluation indicators; The secondary energy supply evaluation indicators under the energy supply security evaluation indicators include: electricity coverage evaluation indicators, population proportion evaluation indicators that mainly use clean fuels and technologies, per capita energy consumption evaluation indicators, energy self-sufficiency evaluation indicators and power supply reliability support measures evaluation indicators; The secondary energy supply evaluation indicators under the energy supply high efficiency evaluation indicators include: power abandonment risk evaluation indicators, industrial competitiveness performance index evaluation indicators and energy intensity evaluation indicators.

6. The method for quantitatively evaluating the level of energy supply transformation and reform according to claim 5 is characterized in that: Step S4 is specifically as follows: Step S4.1, assuming that the energy supply evaluation index system includes N primary energy supply evaluation indexes, represented by F1, F2, ..., F j ,...,F N , j = 1, 2, ..., N; for the primary energy supply evaluation index F j , with Q j Secondary energy supply evaluation index, expressed as k=1,2,...,Q j ; Step S4.2, determine the indicator weights: Through expert survey method, according to each primary energy supply evaluation index F1, F2, ..., F j ,...,F N The impact of the transformation of energy supply is determined by the evaluation indicators F1, F2, ..., F j ,...,F N The weights are: w1,w2,...,w j ,...,w N ; For each primary energy supply evaluation index F j Q included j Secondary energy supply evaluation indicators According to each secondary energy supply evaluation index In its primary energy supply evaluation index F j The corresponding energy supply effect evaluation dimension determines the impact of energy supply transformation and transformation, and determines the evaluation indicators of each secondary energy supply The weights are: Step S4.3: for each secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k , according to the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The indicator characteristics of the secondary energy supply evaluation index F are determined j,k The indicator data acquisition method and indicator data preprocessing rules; Step S4.4, assuming that the evaluation object range has M evaluation objects, represented by evaluation object i, i = 1, 2, ..., M; According to the index data acquisition method determined in step S4.3, each secondary energy supply evaluation index F of each evaluation object i is obtained. j,k The original index value According to the index data preprocessing rules determined in step S4.3, the secondary energy supply evaluation index F of the evaluation object i is j,k The original index value Preprocessing is performed to obtain dimensionless quantitative standard values Step S4.5: for each primary energy supply evaluation index F of the evaluation object i j , j = 1, 2, ..., N, using formula (1), quantitatively evaluate its energy supply transformation index Thus, the energy supply transformation index of each primary energy supply evaluation indicator of evaluation object i is obtained, which is expressed as follows: Step S4.6: Use formula (2) to quantitatively evaluate the total energy supply transformation index of evaluation object i: This enables a quantitative evaluation of the level of energy supply transformation and change of the evaluation object i during the evaluation period.

7. The method for quantitatively evaluating the level of energy supply transformation and reform according to claim 6 is characterized in that: In step S4.3, according to the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The indicator characteristics of the secondary energy supply evaluation index F are determined j,k The indicator data acquisition method and indicator data preprocessing rules are as follows: Method for obtaining indicator data: If the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k It is a non-numerical indicator. According to the meaning of the indicator, the expert survey method is used to evaluate the secondary energy supply evaluation index F of each evaluation object. j,k Discretization assignment; if a secondary energy supply evaluation index F of a certain evaluation object j,k In case of missing values, the analogy method is preferred for assignment, that is, the secondary energy supply evaluation index F of the evaluation object with similar situation is j,k The value of is assigned to the missing object; if there is no other evaluation object with similar situation, then the evaluation object is assigned the value of the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The performance on the other evaluation objects is assigned the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The characteristic values ​​of , including maximum, minimum, mean and median; If the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k If it is a numerical indicator, its value is directly used as the secondary energy supply evaluation indicator F j,k The original indicator value of The index data preprocessing rules are as follows: According to the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The characteristics and credibility of the index are determined comprehensively. Specifically, if it is a numerical evaluation index with high credibility, the shoulder-pole linear method is used for data preprocessing, otherwise the hierarchical equalization method is used for data preprocessing.

8. The method for quantitatively evaluating the level of energy supply transformation and reform according to claim 7 is characterized in that: In step S4.4, the secondary energy supply evaluation index F of the evaluation object i is j,k The original index value Preprocessing is performed to obtain dimensionless quantitative standard values Specifically: Step S4.4.1, determine each secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The positive and negative correlation of If the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k When the growth rate is high, the energy supply transformation is promoted, then the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k It is positively correlated with the energy supply transformation target. j,k It is a positive correlation indicator; On the contrary, if the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k When the growth is hindered, the transformation of energy supply will be hindered. Then the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k It is negatively correlated with the energy supply transformation target. j,k It is a negative correlation indicator; Step S4.4.2, according to the index data preprocessing rules, for the secondary energy supply evaluation index F that uses the shoulder pole linear method for data preprocessing j,k , execute step S4.4.3; for the secondary energy supply evaluation index F using the hierarchical equalization method for data preprocessing j,k , execute step S4.4.4; Step S4.4.3, data preprocessing using the shoulder pole linear method: For M evaluation objects, their secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The original index values ​​are: Sure The maximum value MAX(I j,k ) and the minimum value MIN(I j,k ); if the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k is a positive correlation index, and formula (3) is used for data preprocessing. If the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k As a negative correlation index, formula (4) is used for data preprocessing to convert the original index value Normalized to a dimensionless quantitative standard value based on 100 Step S4.4.4, data preprocessing using the hierarchical equalization method: According to each secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k The positive and negative correlation of the evaluation object i is calculated by using the corresponding hierarchical equalization method to preprocess the data. j,k The original index value Standardization to obtain dimensionless quantitative standard value Specifically include: ① For M evaluation objects, determine each secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k P j,k Levels, namely, level 1, level 2, ..., level P j,k Level; where the level number P j,k Determined by expert survey method, and 1<P j,k ≤M; right After the original index values ​​are arranged in descending order, the ranking number of the original index value ranked first is 1, and the ranking number is increased in sequence. If the values ​​are the same, the same number is given, and the subsequent corresponding numbers are cancelled, so as to determine the ranking number of each original index value. The ranking number is expressed as: ② Determine the original index value by the following method Level A: Determine the original indicator value Level The process: A1, initialize the intermediate variable set is empty; A2, judge whether condition 1 is true, if true, then add Assign P j,k -1; if not true, then add to the intermediate variable Assign P j,k , then execute A3; Condition 1: A3, judge whether condition 2 is true, if true, then add Assign P j,k -2; if not, the intermediate variable Assign the value of to the intermediate variable Then execute A4; Condition 2: A4, determine whether condition 3 is true. If true, add the value to the intermediate variable Assign P j,k -3; if not, the intermediate variable Assign the value of to the intermediate variable Condition 3: And so on Judgment Condition P j,k -1 is true, if true, assign 1 to the intermediate variable V1; if not true, assign the value of the intermediate variable V2 to the intermediate variable V1, and then execute B; Condition P j,k -1: B, using formula (5), get the original index value Level ③ If the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k is a positive correlation index, and formula (6) is used for data preprocessing. If the secondary energy supply evaluation index F j,k As a negative correlation index, formula (7) is used for data preprocessing to convert the original index value Normalized to a dimensionless quantitative standard value based on 100 This step is finished.

9. The method for quantitatively evaluating the level of energy supply transformation and reform according to claim 6 is characterized in that: For each primary energy supply evaluation index, including the energy supply cleanliness evaluation index, the energy supply low-carbon evaluation index, the energy supply security evaluation index and the energy supply efficiency evaluation index, the weights are 0.2, 0.2, 0.4 and 0.2 respectively.

10. The method for quantitatively evaluating the level of energy supply transformation and reform according to claim 6 is characterized in that: For each secondary energy supply evaluation indicator, its relevance, standardization method, weight, indicator meaning and original indicator value type are as follows: Table 1. Related parameter values ​​of secondary energy supply evaluation indicators Among them: the evaluation objects with energy self-sufficiency rate greater than 100% are processed by the hierarchical equalization method; the evaluation objects with energy self-sufficiency rate less than or equal to 100% are processed by the shoulder pole linear method; According to the relevant parameter values ​​of the secondary energy supply evaluation indicators in Table 1, a quantitative evaluation of the energy supply transformation level of the evaluation object is carried out.

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