Disaster influence assessment method and device for power system, and medium

Abstract

The invention discloses a disaster influence assessment method and device for a power system and a medium. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring a disaster-inducing factor risk index, an exposure index, a disaster-bearing body vulnerability index and an emergency response index of a target power system after the target power system is subjected to a target coupling disaster; determining a target influence degree of a target disaster on the target power system based on any one or more first-level indexes of the disaster-inducing factor risk index, the exposure degree index, the disaster-bearing body vulnerability index and the emergency response index; and determining a target disaster influence level of the target power system based on the target influence degree to obtain a target evaluation result. According to the method, the target influence degree is determined according to the disaster-inducing factor risk index, the exposure degree index, the disaster-bearing body vulnerability index and the emergency response index, so that the determination of the target influence degree is more accurate and reasonable, and then the influence of the target coupling disaster can be accurately evaluated according to the target influence degree subsequently.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power systems, and in particular to a method, device and medium for evaluating the impact of disasters on power systems. Background Art

[0002] As the power system is one of the key infrastructures for the operation of modern society, its stability and reliability are of vital importance. With the rapid development of the power system, the capacity of the power supply and utilization system is getting larger and larger, the grid is getting denser and denser, and the voltage level is getting higher and higher. At the same time, the new situation is that the impact of global climate change is intensifying. The frequency and intensity of natural disasters such as rainstorms, floods, and snowstorms have increased, which not only poses a threat to the normal operation of the power system, but may also cause chain failures and lead to power outages on a larger scale. Therefore, it is very important to assess the impact of disasters on the target power system. By assessing the impact of disasters, it can help power companies better sort out past experience and formulate response strategies to prevent the risks of multi-disaster coupling events, thereby reducing losses caused by natural disasters. However, the existing disaster impact methods are not comprehensive and accurate enough.

[0003] Therefore, there is an urgent need for a disaster impact assessment method for power systems to solve the problem that the assessment results in the existing technology are not comprehensive and accurate enough. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of this, the present invention provides a method, device and medium for disaster impact assessment of power system, the main purpose of which is to solve the problem that the current disaster impact assessment is not comprehensive and accurate enough.

[0005] To solve the above problems, the present application provides a disaster impact assessment method for a power system, comprising: obtaining a hazard factor risk index, an exposure index, a disaster-bearing body vulnerability index, and an emergency response index of a target power system after being subjected to a target coupled disaster;

[0006] Determine the target impact of the target disaster on the target power system based on any one or more of the first-level indicators of the hazard factor hazard index, exposure index, vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body and emergency response index;

[0007] A target disaster impact level of the target power system is determined based on the target impact degree to obtain a target assessment result.

[0008] Optionally, obtaining the hazard index of the disaster-causing factor specifically includes: obtaining any one or more secondary indicators of the proportion of the disaster-affected area, the annual occurrence rate of disasters, and the intensity of coupled disasters, so as to determine the hazard index of the disaster-causing factor based on the proportion of the disaster-affected area, the annual occurrence rate of disasters, and the intensity of coupled disasters;

[0009] Acquiring the exposure index specifically includes: acquiring any one or more secondary indicators of power facility density, proportion of target user types, and power supply load factor, so as to determine the exposure index based on the power facility density, proportion of target user types, and power supply load factor;

[0010] Obtaining the vulnerability index of the disaster-prone body specifically includes: obtaining any one or several secondary indicators of the service life coefficient of power facilities, the proportion of outages of substations, the proportion of outages of transmission and distribution lines, the proportion of outage areas, and the proportion of power outage users, so as to determine the vulnerability index of the disaster-prone body based on the service life coefficient of power facilities, the proportion of outages of substations, the proportion of outages of transmission and distribution lines, the proportion of outage areas, and the proportion of power outage users;

[0011] Obtaining the emergency response index specifically includes: obtaining any one or several secondary indicators among the emergency drill coefficient, emergency repair and recovery efficiency, emergency material matching coefficient, rescue team matching coefficient and emergency repair team matching coefficient, and determining the emergency response index based on the emergency drill coefficient, emergency repair and recovery efficiency, emergency material matching coefficient, rescue team matching coefficient and emergency repair team matching coefficient.

[0012] Optionally, obtaining the coupling disaster intensity of the target power system includes:

[0013] Determine the coupled disaster chain corresponding to the target coupled disaster;

[0014] The coupled disaster intensity is determined based on the levels of various disasters in the coupled disaster chain and the correlation between various disasters in the coupled disaster chain.

[0015] Optionally, obtaining the proportion of target user types of the target power system includes:

[0016] Obtain the number of power outage users of target user types within the target area covered by the target power system; the target user types include non-residential user types and non-enterprise user types;

[0017] The proportion of the target user type is determined based on the number of power outage users and the total number of users.

[0018] Optionally, obtaining the service life coefficient of electric power facilities of the target electric power system includes:

[0019] Obtaining the usage time of electric power facilities of the target electric power system;

[0020] The service life coefficient of the power facility is determined based on the used time, the rated use time of the power facility and the annual maintenance coefficient.

[0021] Optionally, obtaining the emergency repair recovery efficiency includes:

[0022] Obtain the total number of restored users, total number of affected users, response time, and emergency repair time;

[0023] The emergency repair recovery efficiency is determined based on the total number of restored users, the total number of affected users, the response time, and the emergency repair time.

[0024] Optionally, the influence of the target disaster on the target power system is determined based on any one or more of the hazard index of the disaster-causing factor, the exposure index, the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency response index;

[0025] The target impact degree is determined based on the disaster factor hazard index, the first weight value corresponding to the disaster factor hazard index, the exposure index, the second weight value corresponding to the exposure index, the disaster-prone body vulnerability index, the third weight value corresponding to the disaster-prone body vulnerability index, the emergency response index and the fourth weight value corresponding to the emergency response index.

[0026] Optionally, determining a target disaster impact level of the target power system based on the target impact degree to obtain a target assessment result specifically includes:

[0027] Based on the target impact degree and the impact degree ranges corresponding to each disaster impact level, the target disaster impact level corresponding to the target impact degree is determined to obtain the target assessment result.

[0028] In order to solve the above problems, the present application provides a disaster impact assessment device for a power system, comprising:

[0029] An acquisition module is used to obtain the hazard index of the disaster-causing factor, the exposure index, the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency response index of the target power system after being affected by the target coupled disaster;

[0030] A determination module, used to determine the target impact of the target disaster on the target power system based on any one or more primary indicators among the hazard index of the disaster-causing factor, the exposure index, the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency response index;

[0031] An evaluation module is used to determine a target disaster impact level of the target power system based on the target impact degree to obtain a target evaluation result.

[0032] To solve the above problems, the present application provides a storage medium, wherein the storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of any of the above methods for disaster impact assessment of a power system are implemented.

[0033] To solve the above problems, the present application provides an electronic device, comprising at least a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and when the processor executes the computer program on the memory, it implements the steps of any of the above-mentioned methods for assessing the disaster impact of a power system.

[0034] The present application provides a disaster impact assessment method, device and medium for a power system. By obtaining several indicators such as the hazard index of the disaster-causing factor, the exposure index, the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency response index, and determining the target impact degree based on these indicators, the determination of the target impact degree can be made more accurate and reasonable. Subsequently, the target disaster impact level can be accurately determined based on the target impact degree, thereby achieving an accurate assessment of the impact of the target coupled disaster.

[0035] The above description is only an overview of the technical solution of the present invention. In order to more clearly understand the technical means of the present invention, it can be implemented according to the contents of the specification. In order to make the above and other purposes, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, the specific implementation methods of the present invention are listed below. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0036] Various other advantages and benefits will become apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art by reading the detailed description of the preferred embodiments below. The accompanying drawings are only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments and are not to be considered as limiting the present invention. Moreover, the same reference symbols are used throughout the accompanying drawings to represent the same components. In the accompanying drawings:

[0037] Figure 1 This is a flow chart of a method for disaster impact assessment of a power system according to an embodiment of the present application;

[0038] Figure 2 This is a structural block diagram of a disaster impact assessment device for a power system according to another embodiment of the present application;

[0039] Figure 3 This is a structural block diagram of an electronic device according to another embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0040] Various aspects and features of the present application are described herein with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0041] It should be understood that various modifications may be made to the embodiments of the present application. Therefore, the above description should not be considered as limiting, but only as an example of the embodiments. Other modifications within the scope and spirit of the present application will occur to those skilled in the art.

[0042] The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of the specification, illustrate embodiments of the present application and, together with the general description of the present application given above and the detailed description of the embodiments given below, serve to explain the principles of the present application.

[0043] These and other characteristics of the present application will become apparent from the following description of a preferred form of embodiment given as a non-limiting example with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0044] It should also be understood that although the present application has been described with reference to some specific examples, those skilled in the art will be able to readily implement many other equivalent forms of the present application.

[0045] The above and other aspects, features and advantages of the present application will become more apparent in view of the following detailed description when taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0046] Specific embodiments of the present application are described hereinafter with reference to the accompanying drawings; however, it should be understood that the embodiments applied for are merely examples of the present application, which may be implemented in a variety of ways. Well-known and / or repeated functions and structures are not described in detail to avoid unnecessary or redundant details that obscure the present application. Therefore, the specific structural and functional details applied for herein are not intended to be limiting, but merely serve as a basis and representative basis for the claims to teach those skilled in the art to use the present application in a variety of ways with substantially any suitable detailed structure.

[0047] This specification may use the phrases "in one embodiment," "in another embodiment," "in yet another embodiment," or "in other embodiments," all of which may refer to one or more of the same or different embodiments according to the present application.

[0048] The present application embodiment provides a disaster impact assessment method for a power system, which can be specifically applied to electronic devices such as terminals and servers. Figure 1 As shown, including:

[0049] Step S101, obtaining a hazard factor risk index, an exposure index, a hazard-bearing body vulnerability index, and an emergency response index of a target power system after being affected by a target coupled disaster;

[0050] In this step, the target coupled disaster includes multiple disasters and the correlation between each disaster. For example, the target coupled disaster is: cold wave, strong wind and sandstorm. The correlation between the target coupled disaster is that the cold wave causes strong wind, and the strong wind causes sandstorm. Therefore, the following coupled disaster chain can be constructed: cold wave-strong wind-sandstorm. Therefore, for any target coupled disaster, the upper coupled disaster chain can be constructed. For example, the coupled disaster chain is: cold wave-freezing rain; cold wave-low temperature; cold wave-snowstorm; earthquake-tsunami; earthquake-mudslide; earthquake-landslide; heavy rain-mudslide; heavy rain-landslide; heavy rain-flood; typhoon-heavy rain-flood; typhoon-heavy rain-landslide; typhoon-heavy rain-mudslide, etc.

[0051] Among them, the hazard index of disaster-causing factors includes any one or more of the following: the proportion of disaster-affected areas, the annual occurrence rate of disasters, and the intensity of coupled disasters. The exposure index includes any one or more of the following: the density of power facilities, the proportion of target user types, and the power supply load coefficient. The vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body includes any one or more of the following: the service life coefficient of power facilities, the proportion of substation outages, the proportion of transmission and distribution line outages, the proportion of outage areas, and the proportion of power outage users. The emergency response index includes any one or more of the following: emergency drill coefficient, emergency repair and recovery efficiency, emergency material matching coefficient, rescue team matching coefficient, and emergency repair team matching coefficient.

[0052] Step S102, determining the target impact of the target disaster on the target power system based on any one or more of the first-level indicators of the hazard factor risk index, exposure index, vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body and emergency response index;

[0053] In this step, corresponding weight values ​​can be configured for each indicator in advance. That is, a first weight value is configured for the hazard factor hazard index, a second weight value is configured for the exposure index, a third weight value is configured for the hazard-bearing body vulnerability index, and a fourth weight value is configured for the emergency response index. Subsequently, the impact degree can be calculated based on each indicator and its corresponding weight value.

[0054] In this embodiment, the sum of the first weight value, the second weight value, the third weight value and the fourth weight value is 1. The first weight value, the second weight value, the third weight value and the fourth weight value can be set and adjusted according to actual needs. For example, the first weight value is set to 0.3568, the second weight value is set to 0.1320, the third weight value is set to 0.1414, and the fourth weight value is set to 0.3698.

[0055] Step S103: determining a target disaster impact level of the target power system based on the target impact degree to obtain a target assessment result.

[0056] In this step, several disaster impact levels can be pre-set, and a corresponding impact range can be configured for each disaster impact level. Therefore, after obtaining the target impact, the target impact can be matched with each impact range to determine the target impact range where the target impact is located, and then the disaster impact level corresponding to the target impact range is determined as the target disaster impact level, and the target assessment result can be obtained.

[0057] A disaster impact assessment method for a power system in the present embodiment obtains several indicators, including a hazard factor risk index, an exposure index, a disaster-bearing body vulnerability index, and an emergency response index, and determines a target impact degree based on these indicators. This enables the determination of the target impact degree to be more accurate and reasonable. Subsequently, the target disaster impact level can be accurately determined based on the target impact degree, thereby achieving an accurate assessment of the impact of the target coupled disaster.

[0058] Based on the above embodiments, another embodiment of the present application provides a disaster impact assessment method for a power system, comprising the following steps:

[0059] Step S201, pre-configure any one or more of the hazard factor risk index, exposure index, hazard-bearing body vulnerability index, and emergency response index as first-level indicators, and configure corresponding weight values ​​for each first-level indicator;

[0060] In this step, the two indicators of disaster risk factor index and exposure index can be set as primary indicators according to actual needs to evaluate the degree of disaster impact on the power system. Alternatively, the four indicators of disaster risk factor index, exposure index, vulnerability index of disaster-bearing body and emergency response index can be set as primary indicators at the same time to evaluate the degree of disaster impact on the power system.

[0061] Taking the four indicators of hazard factor hazard index, exposure index, vulnerability index of disaster-bearing body and emergency response index as the first-level indicators, the corresponding weights can be configured for each indicator according to the importance of each indicator in evaluating the impact of the disaster, and the sum of each weight is 1. For example, the first weight value of 0.3568 is configured for the hazard factor hazard index, the second weight value of 0.1320 is configured for the exposure index, the third weight value of 0.1414 is configured for the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body, and the fourth weight value of 0.3698 is configured for the emergency response index. The sum of the first weight value, the second weight value, the third weight value and the fourth weight value is 1. Specifically, the weight range of the first weight value is 0.3-0.39, the weight range of the second weight value is 0.1-0.19, the weight range of the third weight value is 0.1-0.19, and the weight range of the fourth weight value is 0.3-0.39. Therefore, in the actual process, the weight values ​​can be adjusted according to the corresponding weight ranges to ensure that the sum of each weight value is 1.

[0062] Step S202 configures a secondary indicator for each of the primary indicators, and configures a corresponding weight value for each of the secondary indicators;

[0063] In this step, taking the first-level indicator as the disaster-causing factor hazard index as an example, the two indicators / parameter items of the disaster-affected area ratio and the disaster annual occurrence rate can be set in advance according to actual needs as the second-level indicators of the disaster-causing factor hazard index, which are used to determine the disaster-causing factor hazard index based on the disaster-affected area ratio and the disaster annual occurrence rate. Alternatively, the three indicators of the disaster-affected area ratio, the disaster annual occurrence rate and the coupled disaster intensity can also be used as the second-level indicators of the disaster-causing factor hazard index at the same time.

[0064] Take the first-level indicators as an example, which include the hazard index of disaster-causing factors after the target coupled disaster, exposure index, vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body and emergency response index.

[0065] Any one or several secondary indicators can be determined from the indicators of the proportion of disaster affected area, annual disaster occurrence rate, and coupled disaster intensity to determine the hazard index of the disaster-causing factor. At the same time, the corresponding weights can be configured for each secondary indicator according to the first weight value corresponding to the hazard index of the disaster-causing factor.

[0066] Take the example that the secondary indicator corresponding to the disaster-causing factor hazard index includes three parameter indicators, namely, the proportion of disaster affected range, the annual disaster incidence rate, and the coupled disaster intensity. The disaster affected range proportion weight M1 can be configured in advance for the disaster affected range proportion based on the first weight value, the disaster annual incidence rate weight M2 can be configured in advance for the disaster annual incidence rate based on the first weight value, and the coupled disaster intensity weight M3 can be configured in advance for the coupled disaster intensity based on the first weight value, wherein the first weight value = M1 + M2 + M3. Taking the first weight value of 0.3568 as an example, M1 can be configured to 0.1004, M2 to 0.1015, and M3 to 0.1549.

[0067] Similarly, any one or several secondary indicators can be determined from the indicators of power facility density, proportion of target user types and power supply load factor to determine the exposure index; at the same time, the corresponding weight can be configured for each secondary indicator according to the second weight value corresponding to the exposure index.

[0068] Take the secondary indicators corresponding to the exposure index as an example, which include the parameter indicators of power facility density, the proportion of target user types, and the power supply load factor. The power facility density weight M4 can be pre-configured for the power facility density based on the second weight value, the target user type proportion weight M5 can be pre-configured for the target user type proportion based on the second weight value, and the power supply load factor weight M6 can be pre-configured for the power supply load factor based on the second weight value, where the second weight value = M4 + M5 + M6. Taking the second weight value of 0.1320 as an example, M4 can be configured to 0.0497, M5 to 0.0.0403, and M6 to 0.0420.

[0069] Similarly, any one or several secondary indicators can be determined from the service life coefficient of power facilities, the proportion of substation outages, the proportion of transmission and distribution line outages, the proportion of outage stations, and the proportion of power outage users to determine the vulnerability index of the disaster-prone body; at the same time, corresponding weights can be assigned to each secondary indicator according to the third weight value corresponding to the vulnerability index of the disaster-prone body.

[0070] Take the secondary indicators corresponding to the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body as an example, which include the service life coefficient of power facilities, the proportion of outages of substations, the proportion of outages of transmission and distribution lines, the proportion of outage areas, and the proportion of power outage users. The service life coefficient weight M7 of the power facilities can be pre-configured for the service life coefficient of the power facilities based on the third weight value, the proportion of outages of substations can be pre-configured for the proportion of outages of substations based on the third weight value, the proportion of outages of transmission and distribution lines can be pre-configured for the proportion of outages of transmission and distribution lines based on the third weight value, and the proportion of outages of transmission and distribution lines can be pre-configured for the proportion of outages of power distribution areas based on the third weight value. 10 , based on the third weight value, pre-configure the power outage user number ratio weight M for the power outage user number ratio 11 . Among them, the third weight value = M7 + M8 + M9 + M 10 +M 11 .

[0071] Similarly, any one or several secondary indicators are determined from the indicators of emergency drill coefficient, emergency repair and recovery efficiency, emergency material matching coefficient, rescue team matching coefficient and emergency repair team matching coefficient to determine the secondary indicators of the emergency response indicator. At the same time, the corresponding weights can be configured for each secondary indicator according to the fourth weight value corresponding to the emergency response indicator.

[0072] Take the secondary indicators corresponding to the emergency response indicators as an example, which include the emergency drill coefficient, emergency repair and recovery efficiency, emergency material matching coefficient, rescue team matching coefficient, and emergency repair team matching coefficient. The emergency drill coefficient weight M can be pre-configured for the emergency drill coefficient based on the fourth weight value. 12 , based on the fourth weight value, the emergency repair and restoration efficiency weight M is pre-configured for the emergency repair and restoration efficiency 13 , based on the fourth weight value, the emergency material matching coefficient M is pre-configured for the emergency material matching coefficient 14 , based on the fourth weight value, the rescue team matching coefficient weight M is pre-configured for the rescue team matching coefficient 15 , based on the fourth weight value, the repair team matching coefficient weight M is pre-configured for the repair team matching coefficient 16 . Wherein, the fourth weight value = M 12 +M 13 +M 14 +M 15 +M 16 .

[0073] In this embodiment, each primary index, secondary index and their corresponding weights are shown in Table 1 below:

[0074] Table 1:

[0075]

[0076]

[0077]

[0078] Step S203, obtaining any one or more secondary indicators of the disaster affected area ratio, the disaster annual occurrence rate, and the coupled disaster intensity to determine the hazard index of the disaster-causing factor;

[0079] In this step, when the secondary indicators corresponding to the disaster-causing factor hazard index simultaneously include the proportion of disaster-affected area, annual disaster occurrence rate, and coupled disaster intensity, it is necessary to obtain these parameters at the same time, and then combine the weights corresponding to each secondary indicator to comprehensively calculate the disaster-causing factor hazard index.

[0080] In the specific implementation process, after obtaining the specific parameters of each secondary indicator, that is, the proportion of disaster affected area, annual disaster incidence rate, and coupled disaster intensity, the weight value corresponding to each secondary indicator can be obtained from the above Table 1, and then the weight value of each secondary indicator can be further combined to comprehensively calculate the disaster risk index.

[0081] That is, the disaster risk index = the proportion of disaster affected area × M1 + annual disaster occurrence rate × M2 + coupled disaster intensity × M3.

[0082] In the specific implementation process of this embodiment, the disaster affected area accounts for A 11 It refers to the proportion of the area affected by the disaster to the total area of ​​the assessed region, which can be expressed as A 11 = Disaster affected area / total area of ​​the region. The total area of ​​the assessed region is the total coverage area of ​​the target power system.

[0083] Annual disaster occurrence rateA 12 It refers to the ratio of the total number of disasters in the statistical data to the number of statistical years. That is, the annual disaster incidence rate A 12 =Total number of disasters in statistical data / statistical year.

[0084] Coupled disaster intensity A 13 It refers to: the correlation between coupled disasters and the intensity of the disasters after coupling. Specifically, the coupled disaster chain corresponding to the target coupled disaster can be determined; based on the levels of various disasters in the coupled disaster chain and the correlation relationship / warning level ratio of various disasters in the coupled disaster chain, the intensity of the coupled disaster can be determined.

[0085] Taking the coupled disaster chain of typhoon-rainstorm-flood as an example, the disaster coupling intensity can be expressed as:

[0086]

[0087]

[0088] Among them I T Indicates typhoon intensity (typhoon warning level), I B Indicates the level of heavy rain warning caused by typhoon, I F Indicates the flood warning level caused by heavy rain.

[0089] Step S204, obtaining any one or more secondary indicators of power facility density, target user type ratio, and power supply load factor to determine an exposure index;

[0090] In this step, when the secondary indicators corresponding to the exposure index include the density of power facilities, the proportion of target user types and the power supply load factor, it is necessary to obtain these parameters / secondary indicators at the same time, and then combine the weights corresponding to each secondary indicator to comprehensively calculate the exposure index.

[0091] In the specific implementation process, after obtaining the specific parameters of each secondary indicator, that is, obtaining the parameters of power facility density, proportion of target user types and power supply load factor, the weight value corresponding to each secondary indicator can be obtained from the above Table 1, and then the weight value of each secondary indicator can be further combined to comprehensively calculate the exposure index.

[0092] That is, exposure index = power facility density × M4 + proportion of target user types × M5 + power supply load factor × M6.

[0093] In this embodiment, the density of power facilities in the area is A 21 It means: the density of power facilities in the region A21 = the number of power facilities in the region / total area of ​​the region.

[0094] Proportion of target user typesA 22 Refers to the ratio of the number of target type users with power outages in the region to the total number of users in the region. Target type users include important users such as hospitals and emergency command centers. A22 = number of important users in the region / total number of users in the region.

[0095] Power supply load factor A in the area 23 Refers to: the loss that may be caused by damage to the power system, which can be expressed as the power supply load factor A in the area 23 = actual load / (maximum power supply capacity-safety redundancy).

[0096] Step S205, obtaining any one or more parameters of the service life coefficient of power facilities, the proportion of outages of substations, the proportion of outages of transmission and distribution lines, the proportion of outage areas, and the proportion of outage users, so as to obtain a vulnerability index of the disaster-prone body;

[0097] In this step, when the secondary indicators corresponding to the vulnerability indicators of the disaster-prone body include the service life coefficient of power facilities, the proportion of substation outages, the proportion of transmission and distribution line outages, the proportion of outage areas, and the proportion of power outage users, it is necessary to obtain these parameters at the same time, and then combine the weights corresponding to each secondary indicator to comprehensively calculate the disaster-causing factor hazard index.

[0098] In the specific implementation process, after obtaining the specific parameters of each secondary indicator, that is, obtaining the service life coefficient of power facilities, the proportion of substation outages, the proportion of transmission and distribution line outages, the proportion of outage areas, and the proportion of power outage users, the weight value corresponding to each secondary indicator can be obtained from the above Table 1, and then the weight value of each secondary indicator can be further combined to comprehensively calculate the vulnerability index of the disaster-prone body.

[0099] That is, the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body = the service life coefficient of power facilities × M7 + the proportion of substation outages × M8 + the proportion of transmission and distribution line outages × M9 + the proportion of outage stations × M 10 +The proportion of users with power outage × M 11 .

[0100] In the specific implementation process of this embodiment, the service life coefficient A of the power facility 31Refers to: the service life of the power facilities, which can be expressed as A 31 = (1-current use time of power facilities / rated use time of power facilities) × annual maintenance coefficient. The annual maintenance coefficient is determined by scoring according to maintenance records, with a value between 0 and 1, and a value close to 1 indicates good maintenance.

[0101] Percentage of Substation Outages 32 It refers to the ratio of the number of substations shut down due to disaster events to the total number of substations in the region. 32 = Number of substations out of service during the incident / total number of substations in the area.

[0102] Percentage of Transmission and Distribution Line Outages 33 It refers to the ratio of the number of power transmission and distribution lines that are out of service due to disaster events to the total number of power transmission and distribution lines in the region. 33 = Number of transmission and distribution lines out of service during the incident / total number of transmission and distribution lines in the region.

[0103] The proportion of radio outage areas 34 It refers to the ratio of the number of power outage areas caused by disaster events to the total number of power outage areas in the region. 34 = Number of stations out of service during the incident / Total number of stations in the area.

[0104] The proportion of power outage users 35 It refers to the ratio of the number of users who lost power due to disaster events to the number of users who lost power in the area. 35 = Number of users without power during the incident / Number of users without power in the area.

[0105] Step S206, obtaining any one or more parameters of the emergency drill coefficient, emergency repair and recovery efficiency, emergency material matching coefficient, rescue team matching coefficient, and emergency repair team matching coefficient to obtain an emergency response index;

[0106] In this step, when the secondary indicators corresponding to the emergency response indicators include the emergency drill coefficient, emergency repair and recovery efficiency, emergency material matching coefficient, rescue team matching coefficient and emergency repair team matching coefficient, it is necessary to obtain these parameter indicators at the same time, and then combine the weights corresponding to each secondary indicator to comprehensively calculate the emergency response index.

[0107] In the specific implementation process, after obtaining the specific parameters of each secondary indicator, that is, obtaining the emergency drill coefficient, emergency repair and recovery efficiency, emergency material matching coefficient, rescue team matching coefficient and emergency repair team matching coefficient, the weight value corresponding to each secondary indicator can be obtained from the above Table 1, and then the weight value of each secondary indicator can be further combined to comprehensively calculate the emergency response indicator.

[0108] That is, emergency response index = emergency drill coefficient × M 12 +Repair and Recovery Efficiency×M 13 +Emergency material matching coefficient×M 14 +Rescue team matching coefficient × M 15 +Repair team matching coefficient × M 16 .

[0109] In this embodiment, the emergency drill coefficient A 41 It refers to the ratio of the average annual emergency drill score to the predetermined total score. That is, the emergency drill coefficient A 41 =Average annual emergency drill score / total score.

[0110] Repair and recovery efficiency A 42 Refers to: the ratio of the proportion of restored users to the time (response time + emergency repair time), that is, the emergency repair recovery efficiency

[0111] Emergency supplies matching coefficient A 43 It refers to the ratio of the amount of emergency supplies in the region to the total amount of emergency supplies required for the event. That is, the emergency supplies matching coefficient A 43 = Emergency material reserves in the region / total demand for emergency materials for an incident.

[0112] Rescue team matching coefficient A 44 It refers to the ratio of the number of rescue teams that can be mobilized in the region to the total number of rescue personnel required in the incident. That is, the rescue team matching coefficient A 44 = Number of rescue teams that can be mobilized in the area / total number of rescue personnel required in the incident.

[0113] Repair team matching coefficient A 45 It refers to the ratio of the number of repair teams that can be mobilized in the area to the total number of repair personnel required in the incident. 45 = Number of emergency repair teams that can be mobilized in the area / total number of emergency repair personnel required in the incident.

[0114] Step S207, determines the target impact degree based on the disaster factor hazard index, the first weight value corresponding to the disaster factor hazard index, the exposure index, the second weight value corresponding to the exposure index, the disaster-prone body vulnerability index, the third weight value corresponding to the disaster-prone body vulnerability index, the emergency response index and the fourth weight value corresponding to the emergency response index.

[0115] In this step, the sum of the first weight value, the second weight value, the third weight value and the fourth weight value is 1. The first weight value, the second weight value, the third weight value and the fourth weight value can be set and adjusted according to actual needs, for example, the first weight value is set to 0.3568, the second weight value is set to 0.1320, the third weight value is set to 0.1414, and the fourth weight value is set to 0.3698.

[0116] In the specific implementation of this step, each indicator can be multiplied by the corresponding weight value, and then the products can be added to obtain the target impact degree. That is, the target impact degree = hazard factor risk index × first weight value + exposure index × second weight value + hazard-bearing body vulnerability index × third weight value + emergency response index × fourth weight value.

[0117] Step S208, based on the target impact degree and the impact degree ranges corresponding to the disaster impact levels, determine the target disaster impact level corresponding to the target impact degree to obtain the target assessment result.

[0118] In this step, several disaster impact levels can be pre-set, and a corresponding impact range can be configured for each disaster impact level. Therefore, after obtaining the target impact, the target impact can be matched with each impact range to determine the target impact range where the target impact is located, and then the disaster impact level corresponding to the target impact range is determined as the target disaster impact level, and the target assessment result can be obtained.

[0119] In this embodiment, a method for assessing the impact of disasters on a power system is used to obtain several indicators, including the hazard index of the disaster-causing factor, the exposure index, the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body, and the emergency response index, and determine the target impact according to these indicators, so that the determination of the target impact can be made more accurate and reasonable. Subsequently, the target disaster impact level can be accurately determined according to the target impact, and the accurate assessment of the impact of the target coupled disaster is achieved. The problem that the assessment results of the existing power grid risk assessment methods are not accurate and reasonable due to the assessment of the impact of disasters mainly for a single disaster is solved. For example, only floods or earthquakes are considered on the power grid. Such methods are usually based on statistical analysis of historical data, and combined with physical models to assess the vulnerability of the power grid under specific disaster conditions. However, in actual applications, multiple natural disasters often occur simultaneously or successively, forming a complex scenario combination. The risk assessment method of a single disaster cannot accurately reflect the risk of the power grid under the coupling effect of multiple disasters. Therefore, by adopting the disaster impact assessment method for multiple coupled disasters in this application, the coupling effects of multiple disasters can be considered at the same time, making the final assessment result more accurate and reliable.

[0120] Another embodiment of the present application provides a disaster impact assessment device for a power system, such as Figure 2 As shown, including:

[0121] The acquisition module 11 is used to obtain the hazard index of the disaster factor, the exposure index, the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency response index of the target power system after being affected by the target coupling disaster;

[0122] A determination module 12 is used to determine the target impact of the target disaster on the target power system based on any one or more primary indicators of the hazard index of the disaster factor, the exposure index, the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency response index;

[0123] The evaluation module 13 is used to determine a target disaster impact level of the target power system based on the target impact degree to obtain a target evaluation result.

[0124] In the specific implementation process of this embodiment, the acquisition module includes a first acquisition unit, a second acquisition unit, a third acquisition unit and a fourth acquisition unit;

[0125] The first acquisition unit is used to: acquire any one or more secondary indicators of the proportion of disaster affected area, annual disaster occurrence rate and coupled disaster intensity, and determine the hazard index of the disaster-causing factor based on the proportion of disaster affected area, annual disaster occurrence rate and coupled disaster intensity;

[0126] The second acquisition unit is used to: acquire any one or more secondary indicators of power facility density, target user type ratio and power supply load factor, so as to determine the exposure index based on the power facility density, target user type ratio and power supply load factor;

[0127] The third acquisition unit is used to: obtain any one or more secondary indicators of the service life coefficient of power facilities, the proportion of outages of substations, the proportion of outages of transmission and distribution lines, the proportion of outage areas, and the proportion of power outage users, so as to determine the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body based on the service life coefficient of power facilities, the proportion of outages of substations, the proportion of outages of transmission and distribution lines, the proportion of outage areas, and the proportion of power outage users;

[0128] The fourth acquisition unit is used to obtain any one or several secondary indicators among the emergency drill coefficient, emergency repair and recovery efficiency, emergency material matching coefficient, rescue team matching coefficient and emergency repair team matching coefficient, so as to determine the emergency response index based on the emergency drill coefficient, emergency repair and recovery efficiency, emergency material matching coefficient, rescue team matching coefficient and emergency repair team matching coefficient.

[0129] In the specific implementation process of this embodiment, when acquiring the coupled disaster intensity, the first acquisition unit is specifically used to: determine the coupled disaster chain corresponding to the target coupled disaster; and determine the coupled disaster intensity based on the levels of various disasters in the coupled disaster chain and the correlation between various disasters in the coupled disaster chain.

[0130] During the specific implementation of this embodiment, when the second acquisition unit acquires the proportion of the target user type, it is specifically used to: acquire the number of power outage users of the target user type within the target area covered by the target power system; the target user type includes non-residential user type and non-enterprise user type; determine the proportion of the target user type based on the number of power outage users and the total number of users.

[0131] During the specific implementation of this embodiment, the third acquisition unit is specifically used to: obtain the usage time of the power facilities of the target power system; determine the service life coefficient of the power facilities based on the usage time, the rated usage time of the power facilities and the annual maintenance coefficient.

[0132] During the specific implementation of this embodiment, when acquiring the emergency repair and recovery efficiency, the fourth acquisition unit is specifically used to: acquire the total number of restored users, the total number of affected users, the response time and the emergency repair time; and determine the emergency repair and recovery efficiency based on the total number of restored users, the total number of affected users, the response time and the emergency repair time.

[0133] During the specific implementation of this embodiment, the determination module is specifically used to determine the degree of impact based on the disaster factor hazard index, the first weight value corresponding to the disaster factor hazard index, the exposure index, the second weight value corresponding to the exposure index, the disaster-prone body vulnerability index, the third weight value corresponding to the disaster-prone body vulnerability index, the emergency response index, and the fourth weight value corresponding to the emergency response index.

[0134] In the specific implementation process of this embodiment, the evaluation module is specifically used to: determine the target disaster impact level corresponding to the target impact level based on the target impact level and the impact level range corresponding to each disaster impact level, so as to obtain the target evaluation result.

[0135] The disaster impact assessment device for the power system in this embodiment obtains several indicators, including the hazard index of the disaster-causing factor, the exposure index, the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body, and the emergency response index, and determines the target impact degree based on these indicators. This makes the determination of the target impact degree more accurate and reasonable. Subsequently, the target disaster impact level can be accurately determined based on the target impact degree, thereby achieving an accurate assessment of the impact of the target coupled disaster.

[0136] Another embodiment of the present application provides a storage medium, wherein the storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the following method steps are implemented:

[0137] Step 1: Obtain the hazard factor risk index, exposure index, disaster-bearing body vulnerability index and emergency response index of the target power system after being affected by the target coupled disaster;

[0138] Step 2: Determine the target impact of the target disaster on the target power system based on any one or more of the first-level indicators of the hazard factor hazard index, exposure index, vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body and emergency response index;

[0139] Step three: determine the target disaster impact level of the target power system based on the target impact degree to obtain a target assessment result.

[0140] The specific implementation process of the above method steps can refer to any of the above embodiments of the disaster impact assessment method for the power system, and this embodiment will not be repeated here.

[0141] The storage medium used in this application can make the determination of the target impact more accurate and reasonable by obtaining the hazard factor hazard index, exposure index, disaster-prone body vulnerability index and emergency response index, and determining the target impact based on these indicators. Subsequently, the target disaster impact level can be accurately determined based on the target impact, thereby achieving an accurate assessment of the impact of the target coupled disaster.

[0142] Another embodiment of the present application provides an electronic device, such as Figure 3 As shown, at least a memory 1 and a processor 2 are included, the memory 1 stores a computer program, and the processor 2 implements the following method steps when executing the computer program on the memory 1:

[0143] Step 1: Obtain the hazard factor risk index, exposure index, disaster-bearing body vulnerability index and emergency response index of the target power system after being affected by the target coupled disaster;

[0144] Step 2: Determine the target impact of the target disaster on the target power system based on any one or more of the first-level indicators of the hazard factor hazard index, exposure index, vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body and emergency response index;

[0145] Step three: determine the target disaster impact level of the target power system based on the target impact degree to obtain a target assessment result.

[0146] The specific implementation process of the above method steps can refer to any of the above embodiments of the disaster impact assessment method for the power system, and this embodiment will not be repeated here.

[0147] The electronic equipment adopted in this application can make the determination of the target impact more accurate and reasonable by obtaining the hazard index of the disaster-causing factor, the exposure index, the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency response index, and determining the target impact based on these indicators. Subsequently, the target disaster impact level can be accurately determined based on the target impact, thereby achieving an accurate assessment of the impact of the target coupled disaster.

[0148] The above embodiments are only exemplary embodiments of the present application and are not intended to limit the present application. The protection scope of the present application is defined by the claims. Those skilled in the art may make various modifications or equivalent substitutions to the present application within the essence and protection scope of the present application, and such modifications or equivalent substitutions shall also be deemed to fall within the protection scope of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for assessing the impact of a disaster on a power system, characterized in that: include: Obtain the hazard factor risk index, exposure index, hazard-bearing body vulnerability index and emergency response index of the target power system after being affected by the target coupled disaster; Determine the target impact of the target disaster on the target power system based on any one or more of the first-level indicators of the hazard factor hazard index, exposure index, vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body and emergency response index; A target disaster impact level of the target power system is determined based on the target impact degree to obtain a target assessment result.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Obtaining the hazard index of the disaster-causing factor specifically includes: obtaining any one or more secondary indicators of the proportion of the disaster-affected area, the annual disaster occurrence rate, and the coupled disaster intensity, so as to determine the hazard index of the disaster-causing factor based on the proportion of the disaster-affected area, the annual disaster occurrence rate, and the coupled disaster intensity; Acquiring the exposure index specifically includes: acquiring any one or more secondary indicators of power facility density, proportion of target user types, and power supply load factor, so as to determine the exposure index based on the power facility density, proportion of target user types, and power supply load factor; Obtaining the vulnerability index of the disaster-prone body specifically includes: obtaining any one or several secondary indicators of the service life coefficient of power facilities, the proportion of outages of substations, the proportion of outages of transmission and distribution lines, the proportion of outage areas, and the proportion of power outage users, so as to determine the vulnerability index of the disaster-prone body based on the service life coefficient of power facilities, the proportion of outages of substations, the proportion of outages of transmission and distribution lines, the proportion of outage areas, and the proportion of power outage users; Obtaining the emergency response index specifically includes: obtaining any one or several secondary indicators among the emergency drill coefficient, emergency repair and recovery efficiency, emergency material matching coefficient, rescue team matching coefficient and emergency repair team matching coefficient, and determining the emergency response index based on the emergency drill coefficient, emergency repair and recovery efficiency, emergency material matching coefficient, rescue team matching coefficient and emergency repair team matching coefficient.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that Obtaining the coupling disaster intensity of the target power system includes: Determine the coupled disaster chain corresponding to the target coupled disaster; The coupled disaster intensity is determined based on the levels of various disasters in the coupled disaster chain and the correlation between various disasters in the coupled disaster chain.

4. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that Obtaining the proportion of target user types of the target power system includes: Obtain the number of power outage users of target user types within the target area covered by the target power system; the target user types include non-residential user types and non-enterprise user types; The proportion of the target user type is determined based on the number of power outage users and the total number of users.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Obtaining the service life coefficient of the power facilities of the target power system includes: Obtaining the usage time of electric power facilities of the target electric power system; The service life coefficient of the power facility is determined based on the used time, the rated use time of the power facility and the annual maintenance coefficient.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Obtaining the emergency repair recovery efficiency includes: Obtain the total number of restored users, total number of affected users, response time, and emergency repair time; The emergency repair recovery efficiency is determined based on the total number of restored users, the total number of affected users, the response time, and the emergency repair time.

7. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Determining the impact of the target disaster on the target power system based on any one or more of the hazard index of the disaster-causing factor, the exposure index, the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body, and the emergency response index; The target impact degree is determined based on the disaster factor hazard index, the first weight value corresponding to the disaster factor hazard index, the exposure index, the second weight value corresponding to the exposure index, the disaster-prone body vulnerability index, the third weight value corresponding to the disaster-prone body vulnerability index, the emergency response index and the fourth weight value corresponding to the emergency response index.

8. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Determining the target disaster impact level of the target power system based on the target impact degree to obtain a target assessment result specifically includes: Based on the target impact degree and the impact degree ranges corresponding to each disaster impact level, the target disaster impact level corresponding to the target impact degree is determined to obtain the target assessment result.

9. A disaster impact assessment device for a power system, characterized in that: include: An acquisition module is used to obtain the hazard index of the disaster-causing factor, the exposure index, the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency response index of the target power system after being affected by the target coupled disaster; A determination module, used to determine the target impact of the target disaster on the target power system based on any one or more primary indicators among the hazard index of the disaster-causing factor, the exposure index, the vulnerability index of the disaster-bearing body and the emergency response index; An evaluation module is used to determine a target disaster impact level of the target power system based on the target impact degree to obtain a target evaluation result.

10. A storage medium, characterized in that: The storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method for disaster impact assessment for a power system as described in any one of claims 1 to 8 are implemented.

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