Typhoon disaster emergency evacuation deduction and demonstration method

Abstract

The application discloses a typhoon disaster emergency evacuation deduction method and a demonstration method, and the deduction method comprises the following steps: setting a deduction background according to information of a typhoon and a landing place of the typhoon; setting initial states of personnel distribution, traffic conditions and material reserves according to the deduction background; designing deduction rules; performing evacuation deduction on a display map according to the deduction rules and the initial states of the personnel distribution, the traffic conditions and the material reserves; evaluating evacuation efficiency and resource utilization rate according to a deduction result; and improving the deduction rules according to an evaluation result. The deduction method can design and check each link of an evacuation plan in detail, quickly set and execute a drill, shorten preparation and execution time of the drill, make the evacuation drill more frequent, improve coverage range and frequency of the drill, and ensure feasibility and effectiveness of the plan in actual operation.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of public safety and emergency management technology, specifically to a method for simulating and demonstrating emergency evacuation during typhoon disasters. Background Technology

[0002] Sudden events, such as natural disasters or emergencies, are often characterized by rapid evolution and high uncertainty. These characteristics make it difficult for emergency departments and related personnel to obtain timely, accurate, and comprehensive information as the situation develops. Therefore, emergency personnel must be able to make rapid decisions based on different situations to ensure that casualties are minimized or avoided as quickly and effectively as possible within the golden evacuation time.

[0003] Researchers both domestically and internationally have been exploring new technologies and systems to achieve faster and safer evacuation in emergency situations. Research primarily focuses on three core areas: evacuation behavior, evacuation models, and evacuation strategies, with these areas showing a trend of coupling and overlap. Currently, research on emergency evacuation mainly relies on macroscopic and microscopic mathematical models, simulations, and optimization assessments.

[0004] Despite some progress in evacuation research, several problems remain. First, traditional emergency evacuation plans often lack specific operational details, serving more as action guidelines than detailed operational instructions, making them difficult to implement in practice. Second, existing evacuation drills are typically based on pre-set scenarios, lacking training in responding to emergencies and failing to effectively simulate dynamic changes in real-world situations. Furthermore, field drills require significant investment of human, material, and financial resources and are limited by geographical, climatic, and other natural conditions, increasing the economic burden and organizational difficulty. Therefore, a demonstration and simulation method for emergency evacuation is urgently needed. Summary of the Invention

[0005] This invention proposes a simulation and demonstration method for typhoon disaster emergency evacuation, which solves the problems of existing emergency evacuation methods that cannot intuitively demonstrate the process and lack response plans for emergencies.

[0006] To address the aforementioned technical problems, this invention provides a method for simulating emergency evacuation during typhoon disasters, comprising the following steps:

[0007] Step S1: Set the simulation background based on the information of the typhoon and its landfall location;

[0008] Step S2: Set the initial state of personnel distribution, traffic conditions, and material reserves based on the simulation background;

[0009] Step S3: Design simulation rules. Based on the simulation rules and the initial state of personnel distribution, traffic conditions and material reserves, conduct evacuation simulation on the display map. Evaluate the evacuation efficiency and resource utilization based on the simulation results. Improve the simulation rules based on the evaluation results.

[0010] Preferably, the typhoon information in step S1 includes typhoon intensity, movement path, affected area, duration and impact on meteorology, and the typhoon landfall information includes topography, terrain, geographical location, transportation network, population information and population distribution.

[0011] This invention also provides a demonstration method for typhoon disaster emergency evacuation, applicable to the aforementioned typhoon disaster emergency evacuation simulation method, comprising the following steps:

[0012] Step 1: Use several hexagonal grids of the same size to grid over the topographic map of the typhoon landfall area, use different colors to represent different landform features, and connect the center points of the hexagonal grids containing road networks and flight routes to represent the land features, thus obtaining the display map;

[0013] Step 2: Based on the designed display map, set the display items: use equipment for transporting people as the main evacuation display items, use emergency evacuation equipment as the auxiliary evacuation display items, use typhoons as the main disaster display items, use landslides, waterlogging and mudslides as secondary disaster display items, and use road conditions as annotation display items.

[0014] Step 3: Set the rules for the display object to perform simulations on the display map: Set the maneuver rules for the display object based on its movement speed, road conditions, and weather conditions, and set the rules for the occurrence of random events during simulations based on the display object's historical failure probability and remaining travel distance.

[0015] Preferably, before using several hexagonal grids of the same size to grid overlay the topographic map of the typhoon landfall site in step 2, the topographic map is scaled according to the size and spacing of the main evacuation display objects.

[0016] Preferably, the main evacuation display items in step 2 include buses, private cars, ambulances, assault boats, fire trucks, and mechanical equipment, and the auxiliary evacuation display items include emergency command vehicles, road rescue vehicles, and emergency communication vehicles. The road conditions include accidents, breakdowns, and congestion.

[0017] Preferably, the maneuver rules in step 3 include:

[0018] (1) Vehicles in the main evacuation exhibits can only travel along the roads in the road network, and ships can only travel along the routes;

[0019] (2) The main evacuation display in progress must not surpass other main evacuation displays in front of it;

[0020] (3) People must not get on or off vehicles or boats before the main evacuation displays have reached their destination;

[0021] (4) The number of hexagonal squares that the main evacuation display can move each round is:

[0022]

[0023] w = w1w2w3...w n ;

[0024] In the formula, n is the number of hexagonal squares that the main evacuation display can move in each round; w is the weight of the total influencing factors; w i is the weight of the i-th influencing factor; v is the speed of the vehicle or ship during normal operation; t is the set time for each round; d is the actual distance represented by each hexagonal grid.

[0025] Preferably, the rules governing the occurrence of the random event in step 3 include:

[0026] (1) When the vehicles in the main evacuation display pass through the flooded section, the probability of the updated vehicles failing is:

[0027]

[0028] In the formula, P water F represents the probability of vehicle malfunction after driving through water. i Let n be the vehicle's failure rate after the i-th water crossing; n is the number of times the vehicle has historically crossed water.

[0029] (2) Calculate the vehicle's remaining driving distance based on its fuel capacity and the distance already traveled. When the remaining driving distance is less than or equal to 0, the vehicle needs to be refueled. The expression for calculating the remaining driving distance is:

[0030] D remaining =D initial -v·t;

[0031] In the formula, D remaining D represents the vehicle's remaining driving distance. initial is the vehicle's travel distance corresponding to the initial fuel; v is the vehicle's speed; t is the vehicle's travel time.

[0032] (3) When a typhoon passes through a hilly terrain, determine whether a secondary disaster will occur in the current round based on the historical probability of secondary disasters occurring in the hilly terrain.

[0033] Preferably, the rules for the display objects to be simulated on the display map in step 3 also include application rules, which include: setting the maximum number of passengers for buses, private cars and speedboats.

[0034] Preferably, the rules for the display objects to be simulated on the display map in step 3 also include control rules, which include: setting the function of fire trucks to direct traffic, the function of ambulances to rescue the wounded, the function of mechanical equipment to restore communication, and setting the maximum number of wounded persons that an ambulance can carry.

[0035] Preferably, in step 1, blue grids represent water sources, dark brown grids represent mountains, grass green grids represent forests, and black solid lines represent road networks and flight routes.

[0036] The advantages of this invention include at least the following:

[0037] 1. By using hexagonal grids and different colors to distinguish different landform elements, the topographic map is displayed more intuitively and is easier to understand. Different types of disasters and conditions are used as display objects, which can simulate and display various disaster situations and emergency response measures in detail.

[0038] 2. Set maneuver rules based on the moving speed of the exhibits, road conditions, and weather conditions. Combine historical failure probabilities with remaining travel distance to set random event rules. Fully consider various influencing factors to enhance the accuracy and reliability of the simulation, making the simulation results more valuable and helping to optimize emergency evacuation plans. Attached Figure Description

[0039] Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating the desktop demonstration method according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0040] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram illustrating the classification of exhibit types according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0041] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram illustrating the optimization process of the deduction rules in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0042] Figure 4 This is a flowchart illustrating the desktop simulation method according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0043] Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram illustrating an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0044] The technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0045] To establish a desktop simulation system that objectively and realistically reflects the characteristics and patterns of emergency evacuation under typhoon disaster conditions, this invention designs a desktop simulation map from three aspects: map scale, terrain quantification, map elements, and representation methods. This ensures the map accurately reflects the geographical environment of typhoon disaster emergency evacuation. Display objects are designed for equipment directly involved in evacuation, equipment assisting in evacuation, disasters, and annotations to simulate various roles and elements in typhoon disaster emergency evacuation. Furthermore, desktop simulation rules, adjudication rules, and action rules for typhoon disaster emergency evacuation are designed, providing a foundation for rule optimization and scheme evaluation in desktop simulations. Figure 1 As shown, the specific steps include:

[0046] Step S1: Use several hexagonal grids of the same size to grid overlay the topographic map of the typhoon landfall area, use different colors to represent different landform features, and connect the center points of the hexagonal grids containing road networks and flight routes to represent the land features, thus obtaining the display map.

[0047] Specifically, common elements in topographic maps include landforms, vegetation, water systems, roads, and settlements. Visualization techniques are typically used when creating and displaying maps to highlight the main features of map elements while omitting secondary features. Commonly used visualization techniques include image processing, simulated textures, color filling, polyline processing, curve symbol processing, and artistic symbol processing. These methods can vividly and intuitively display the characteristics of various elements, helping users better understand and identify the various elements on the map.

[0048] Before creating a tabletop map, a suitable scale needs to be selected based on the size of the research area and the nature of the research problem. The scale is the scaling factor for the actual distance. The size of the scale determines the size of the actual area represented by each hexagonal grid. When selecting the scale, the size of the lowest-level operational unit in the tabletop demonstration should be considered, ensuring that the lowest-level exhibit can be displayed within the hexagonal grid. For example, in a typhoon disaster emergency evacuation tabletop demonstration, when the lowest-level exhibit represents a single evacuation vehicle, according to road traffic regulations, when vehicles are traveling at medium speeds (around 50 km / h), the distance between vehicles should be no less than 50 meters. Therefore, the distance between opposite sides of each hexagonal grid represents an actual distance of 50 meters. Based on the complexity of the terrain in the research area, the side length of each hexagonal grid is set to 2 cm. After conversion, the scale of this tabletop map is 1:2500. When the lowest-level exhibit involved in emergency evacuation is a convoy, the actual distance represented by each hexagonal grid is determined by the size of the convoy.

[0049] D = d × s;

[0050] In the formula, D represents the actual distance represented by each hexagonal grid, in meters; d is the distance between each pair of vehicles; and s is the number of vehicles in the convoy. For example, for a convoy of 10 vehicles, D = 10 × 50 = 500 meters, meaning that the side length of each hexagonal grid represents an actual distance of 500 meters.

[0051] After determining the scale, the map can be drawn. When drawing the map, the principles of realism and appropriate omission should be followed, focusing on map elements closely related to disaster emergency evacuation and simplifying irrelevant elements. Following the order of topography before features, and areal elements before linear elements, a visual representation method should be used to draw the topography and features sequentially, then draw a hexagonal grid on the map and number it. Topography refers to the natural forms of the Earth's surface, such as plains and mountains; features are objects or structures created by human activities, such as road networks and residential buildings. Areal elements refer to geographical features that occupy a large area and are continuously distributed, such as farmland and mountains, and can be represented using a hexagonal grid; linear elements refer to geographical features whose length is much greater than their width, such as road networks and air routes, and are represented by connecting the center points of the hexagonal grids containing the road networks and air routes.

[0052] When conducting typhoon disaster emergency evacuation tabletop exercises, special attention should be paid to elements closely related to the evacuation process, such as roads and residential areas. Different colors are used to represent different terrain features: blue squares represent water sources, black solid lines represent roads, dark brown squares represent mountains, and light green squares represent forests, etc.

[0053] When designing display maps, one can either simulate the actual geographical environment of the study area or set elements independently according to research needs. Through scientific design, display maps can comprehensively and realistically reflect basic topographical information such as lakes, deserts, swamps, shallow seas, forests, and mountains in a personnel evacuation scenario. They should also reflect information such as roads, urban buildings, and population distribution that affect rescue operations as comprehensively and accurately as possible, thus ensuring the scientific validity and practicality of the designed display.

[0054] Step S2: Based on the designed display map, set the display items: use equipment for transporting people as the main evacuation display item, use emergency evacuation equipment as the auxiliary evacuation display item, use typhoons as the main disaster display item, use landslides, waterlogging and mudslides as secondary disaster display items, and use road conditions as annotation display items.

[0055] Specifically, the exhibits are the various unit operators used in the simulation, representing the various forces and environmental elements actually involved in the emergency evacuation operation. There are two main types of exhibits: unit exhibits and annotation exhibits. During the simulation, each exhibit represents a specific evacuation unit or evacuation event.

[0056] like Figure 2 As shown, a tabletop exercise for typhoon disaster emergency evacuation includes two opposing sides: the emergency evacuation team and the disaster team. Evacuation equipment, directly involved in transporting people during emergency evacuation, is the main and crucial equipment for evacuating the population; therefore, it is presented as the primary evacuation demonstration item. In actual evacuation operations, in addition to vehicles directly used for evacuation, auxiliary evacuation vehicles are also needed, and these are presented as auxiliary evacuation demonstration items. During a typhoon disaster, the primary disaster usually triggers secondary disasters; therefore, a primary disaster demonstration item is designed, with its movement speed points (the number of hexagonal squares it can move per round) set according to the typhoon's movement speed and scale. Secondary disaster demonstration items typically appear after the primary disaster and hinder emergency evacuation operations.

[0057] In typhoon disaster emergency evacuation tabletop exercises, in addition to unit displays, annotation displays are also an important type of display. They can represent various events that occur during the exercise, including road conditions, the status of unit displays, and other matters that need to be specially noted.

[0058] Step S3: Set the rules for the display objects to perform simulations on the display map, including the display objects' maneuver rules, application rules, command and control rules, and adjudication rules.

[0059] Specifically, these rules are the constraints that must be followed during the deduction process using the exhibits. They need to comprehensively consider historical data, practical experience, and scientific principles, while also taking into account the type of exhibits and the application scenario. The rules should be scientific, concise, and easy to understand, ensuring that the deduction rules closely reflect real-world situations. Redundancy should be avoided, and the rules should be easily understood and implemented by the participants after reading them.

[0060] (1) Maneuvering rules

[0061] In a typhoon disaster emergency evacuation tabletop exercise, the exhibits can only move along the road and cannot overtake exhibits on the road ahead. Furthermore, personnel cannot get on or off the vehicle until the exhibits reach their destination. Mobility is constrained by both its own inherent properties and external conditions such as road conditions and weather. Therefore, the mobility rules shown in Table 1 are established, which explain these constraints.

[0062] Table 1. Constraint Description

[0063]

[0064] During emergency evacuation, factors such as terrain, road conditions, and weather can affect mobility. To quantify these effects, an influence coefficient w1, w2...w is assigned to each of these factors, ranging from 0 to 1. n Table 2 shows the influence coefficients of different factors set in the embodiments of the present invention.

[0065] Table 2 Influence coefficients of different factors

[0066]

[0067] The total impact coefficient can be expressed as:

[0068] w = w1w2w3...w n ;

[0069] After considering the impact factor, the number of hexagonal squares that evacuation vehicles can maneuver in each round is:

[0070]

[0071] In the above formula, n is the number of hexagonal squares that the main evacuation display can move in each round; w is the weight of the total influencing factors; w i is the weight of the i-th influencing factor; v is the speed of the vehicle or ship during normal operation; t is the set time for each round; d is the actual distance represented by each hexagonal grid.

[0072] For example, if the actual distance represented by the opposite side of each hexagonal grid on the map is 2km, then with an influence coefficient of 1, the emergency evacuation team can traverse a maximum of 5 hexagonal grids in one round. Considering different influencing factors, and multiplying by the corresponding coefficient, after the main disaster occurs, the team can traverse a maximum of 10 hexagonal grids per round.

[0073] (2) Application rules

[0074] Set the maximum number of passengers for buses, private cars, and inflatable boats to obtain the display application rules shown in Table 3.

[0075] Table 3 Application Rules Explanation

[0076]

[0077] The maximum capacity is the number designed when the corresponding exhibit was produced. This number may vary depending on the manufacturer or brand and can be adjusted according to the actual situation.

[0078] (3) Command and control rules

[0079] The functions of fire trucks, ambulances, and mechanical equipment are set, and the maximum number of injured persons that an ambulance can carry is set, resulting in the command and control rules for the display objects as shown in Table 4.

[0080] Table 4. Explanation of Command and Control Rules

[0081]

[0082] (4) Adjudication Rules

[0083] Decision rules are rules for determining the outcomes of various events during emergency evacuation. In actual simulations, various events are frequently encountered. Some events are triggered under specific conditions, while others have random outcomes. Decision rules assess the triggering conditions and random results of these events. The criteria for decision-making are typically based on historical experience and training data, setting a probability range for each event, and determining the outcome of the event using randomly generated numbers.

[0084] Triggered events are events that occur automatically when certain specific conditions are met. For example, when a typhoon reaches a set intensity threshold, an evacuation order may be issued; when the number of people to be evacuated in a certain area exceeds a set evacuation threshold, additional rescue resources may be allocated; and deteriorating weather or road conditions may impair operational capabilities. Whether a simulation succeeds or fails is also a triggered event; completing the emergency evacuation within the specified rounds constitutes a success, otherwise, the simulation fails. Random events are events whose outcomes are uncertain. Their probability of occurrence needs to be comprehensively assessed through historical experience data and expert judgment. Decision events include:

[0085] A. Vehicle fault diagnosis

[0086] During the simulation, if a vehicle passes through a flooded section of road, it is necessary to determine whether the vehicle has experienced a malfunction.

[0087] First, calculate the probability of vehicle malfunction after driving through water:

[0088]

[0089] In the formula, F i is the probability of failure after the vehicle's i-th wading through water; n is the number of times the vehicle has historically waded through water.

[0090] To simulate uncertainty in reality, a random number R can be generated to determine the vehicle's state. If R ≤ 6 × (1 - P) water If the vehicle's movement is unaffected, it will continue to move normally; otherwise, the vehicle's movement points will be adjusted according to the maneuvering rules.

[0091] For example: Suppose we have the following historical data: a car experienced 3 breakdowns out of 5 water crossings. What is the probability P of this car's breakdown? water =0.6. When the vehicle enters the flooded section, a random number is generated. If the generated random number R≤6×(1-0.6)=2.4, the vehicle's movement is unaffected and it continues to drive normally; if the generated random number R>2.4, the vehicle's movement points are reduced.

[0092] B. Vehicle refueling ruling

[0093] Determine whether a vehicle needs refueling based on its fuel capacity and the distance it can travel. If it does, the vehicle cannot travel in the next round.

[0094] First, calculate the vehicle's remaining driving distance:

[0095] D remaining =D initial -v·t;

[0096] In the formula, D remaining D represents the vehicle's remaining driving distance. initial t represents the distance the vehicle travels with the initial fuel; v represents the vehicle speed; and t represents the vehicle travel time.

[0097] When D remaining When the value is ≤0, the vehicle needs to refuel and cannot maneuver in the next round.

[0098] C. Roadblock Adjudication

[0099] When an ambulance arrives at a hexagonal square to assist a wounded person, it must remain in place for one turn.

[0100] D. Secondary disaster adjudication

[0101] Typhoons bring heavy rainfall to areas they pass through, and some hilly areas may experience secondary disasters such as landslides or mudslides. If a typhoon passes through a hilly area, it can help determine whether secondary disasters have occurred there.

[0102] The probability P of secondary disasters occurring in this region is calculated based on historical data. disaster The vehicle's state is determined based on the generated random number R. If R ≤ 6 × (1 - P) disaster If the vehicle's movement is unaffected, it can continue to move normally; otherwise, the vehicle's movement points will be affected and adjusted according to the movement rules.

[0103] In actual typhoon disaster emergency evacuation, in addition to possessing their own information, the evacuation organizers can also obtain specific information about the typhoon through monitoring and early warning systems. Therefore, the simulation mode is an open-ended simulation. In each round, the participating parties can take turns operating their own displayed objects. After all their displayed objects have been operated, it is the other party's turn to operate. At the end of each round, a new emergency evacuation situation is formed, and the participating parties make decisions for the next round based on the new situation, continuously cycling in this manner. During the confrontation phase, the disaster-stricken party can choose to create accidents within a limited area.

[0104] After the desktop demonstration method is designed, it needs to be optimized. This embodiment of the invention employs a group consensus approach, forming an expert team to discuss the simulation rules for typhoon disaster emergency evacuation, collecting optimization suggestions from relevant experts, and filtering the obtained suggestions to optimize the desktop simulation rules for typhoon disaster emergency evacuation.

[0105] Designing scientifically sound tabletop simulation rules is crucial to ensuring the practicality and effectiveness of tabletop simulations. After designing the rules, continuous optimization and improvement are necessary to maintain their scientific rigor. Optimization of tabletop simulation rules involves adjusting existing rules based on the development of new technologies and equipment, combined with new combat data and training experience. This primarily involves aspects such as maneuver rules, application rules, and adjudication rules within the existing simulation framework.

[0106] In the development of desktop simulations, rule optimization primarily relies on designers and experts in relevant fields to assess anomalies encountered during the simulation process, analyze the necessary rule modifications, and propose improvements. However, relying solely on the judgment of a single designer or expert is prone to errors; therefore, this embodiment of the invention employs... Figure 3The method shown involves inviting multiple experts to form an expert group to discuss the inference rules that need to be optimized and to put forward their own optimization opinions. After comprehensively analyzing the opinions of all the experts who participated in the discussion, a feasible solution and a final decision are determined. Then, the new inference data is substituted into the desktop inference after the optimization rules are optimized for inference verification. This method can greatly improve the efficiency and authority of the optimization of inference rules.

[0107] like Figure 4 As shown, this embodiment of the invention also provides a tabletop exercise method for typhoon disaster emergency evacuation. In the tabletop exercise section, the following steps are set: setting the exercise background, including setting the background conditions such as the typhoon's intensity, path, and affected area; implementing the exercise, conducting the actual tabletop exercise according to the rules to simulate the emergency evacuation process during a typhoon disaster; and analyzing the results, evaluating the effectiveness of the exercise plan, and proposing improvement suggestions. This includes the following steps:

[0108] Step 1: Set up the simulation background based on the information of the typhoon and its landfall location.

[0109] Before the simulation begins, it is necessary to collect relevant information about the typhoon and its landfall location, and set the background conditions for the simulation as shown in Table 5, so as to provide the necessary background information for the tabletop simulation.

[0110] Table 5 Background Information for the Deduction

[0111]

[0112] Step 2: Set the initial state of personnel distribution, traffic conditions and material reserves based on the simulation background.

[0113] Before conducting the simulation, necessary tools such as display maps, exhibits, and rulebooks need to be prepared. Depending on the simulation medium, the display maps, exhibits, and rules can be printed before the simulation, or they can be imported into relevant computer software or board game simulators, such as Microsoft PowerPoint or TableTop Simulator. Then, participants are assigned roles according to the simulation requirements and the initial state is set based on the simulation background, including key information such as personnel distribution, traffic conditions, and material reserves. During the simulation, participants must follow the rulebook to simulate the emergency evacuation process during a typhoon disaster. Each step and its result must be recorded in detail for subsequent analysis and evaluation.

[0114] Step 3: Based on the designed simulation rules and the initial state of personnel distribution, traffic conditions, and material reserves, conduct an evacuation simulation on the display map. Evaluate the evacuation efficiency and resource utilization based on the simulation results, and improve the simulation rules based on the evaluation results.

[0115] The effectiveness of the emergency evacuation plan is evaluated using data collected during the simulation and implementation process, with a focus on indicators such as evacuation efficiency and resource utilization. During the evaluation, potential problems and shortcomings should be carefully identified, such as inappropriate evacuation route selection or unreasonable resource allocation. Based on the identification of these problems, targeted improvement suggestions should be proposed to enhance the practicality and effectiveness of the emergency evacuation plan.

[0116] In the actual implementation process, it is first necessary to collect geographical and feature information of Town A, including topography, landforms, distribution of residential areas, main road network, and water system, and to perform grid coverage and grid coding to achieve a quantitative map. Table 6 is an explanation of the map elements of Town A collected.

[0117] Table 6A: Description of Map Elements for Town A

[0118]

[0119]

[0120] Based on the geographical data of Town A, the scale was set to 1:31808. After scaling the map according to the terrain of Town A, the map was quantized. Regular hexagonal grids with the most movement directions at equal distances and capable of forming a complete plane were selected. These grids were then encoded to obtain the following result: Figure 4 The map shown is for display purposes.

[0121] Subsequently, an emergency evacuation simulation was conducted on the display map according to the established simulation rules, and the simulation results were obtained.

[0122] Traditional emergency evacuation plans often lack specific operational details, serving more as action guidelines than detailed operational instructions, making them difficult to implement in practice. Furthermore, existing emergency evacuation plans are typically based on pre-set scenarios, lacking training for responding to emergencies and failing to effectively simulate dynamic changes in real-world situations. On-site drills, on the other hand, have long preparation and execution cycles, requiring significant investment of human, material, and financial resources. They are also limited by geographical, climatic, and other natural conditions, hindering their frequency and coverage, and increasing their economic burden and organizational complexity. Post-drill debriefing relies on video and written materials, making it difficult to dynamically recreate the specific circumstances of the drill, thus limiting the effectiveness of analysis and learning.

[0123] The tabletop demonstration and simulation method for typhoon disaster emergency evacuation proposed in this invention allows for the detailed design and verification of each aspect of the evacuation plan through tabletop simulations. This enables rapid setup and execution of drills, shortening preparation and execution time, allowing for more frequent evacuation drills, increasing coverage and frequency, and ensuring the feasibility and effectiveness of the plan in actual operation. By simulating the evacuation process in a tabletop environment, the resources and costs required for drills are significantly reduced, making evacuation drills more economical and efficient. The tabletop simulation provides visual and interactive debriefing tools, allowing participants to intuitively observe and analyze each decision and action during the evacuation process.

[0124] The technical features of the above embodiments can be combined arbitrarily. For the sake of brevity, not all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are described; only preferred embodiments of the present invention are illustrated. The descriptions are relatively specific and detailed, but they should not be construed as limiting the scope of the present invention. As long as the combination of these technical features does not contradict each other, it should be considered within the scope of this specification.

[0125] It should be noted that those skilled in the art can make various modifications and improvements without departing from the inventive concept, and these all fall within the scope of protection of this invention. Therefore, the scope of protection of this invention should be determined by the appended claims.

Claims

1. A method for simulating emergency evacuation during typhoon disasters, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: Step S1: Set the simulation background based on the information of the typhoon and its landfall location; Step S2: Set the initial state of personnel distribution, traffic conditions, and material reserves based on the simulation background; Step S3: Design simulation rules. Based on the simulation rules and the initial state of personnel distribution, traffic conditions, and material reserves, conduct an evacuation simulation on the display map. Evaluate the evacuation efficiency and resource utilization rate based on the simulation results. Improve the simulation rules based on the evaluation results. The simulation rules include the rules for the occurrence of random events during the simulation, including: (1) Using the equipment used to transport people as the main evacuation display items, the probability of vehicle failure after the vehicles in the main evacuation display items pass through the flooded section is: In the formula, P water F represents the probability of vehicle malfunction after driving through water. i Let n be the vehicle's failure rate after the i-th water crossing; n is the number of times the vehicle has historically crossed water. (2) Calculate the vehicle's remaining driving distance based on its fuel capacity and the distance already traveled. When the remaining driving distance is less than or equal to 0, the vehicle needs to be refueled. The expression for calculating the remaining driving distance is: D remaining =D initial -v·t; In the formula, D remaining D represents the vehicle's remaining driving distance. initial is the vehicle's travel distance corresponding to the initial fuel; v is the vehicle's speed; t is the vehicle's travel time. (3) When a typhoon passes through a hilly terrain, determine whether a secondary disaster will occur in the current round based on the historical probability of secondary disasters occurring in the hilly terrain.

2. The method for simulating emergency evacuation during typhoon disasters according to claim 1, characterized in that: The typhoon information mentioned in step S1 includes typhoon intensity, movement path, affected area, duration and impact on meteorology. The information of the typhoon landfall location includes terrain, topography, geographical location, transportation network, population information and population distribution.

3. A demonstration method for emergency evacuation during typhoon disasters, characterized in that, The simulation method applicable to the typhoon disaster emergency evacuation as described in any one of claims 1 to 2 is characterized by comprising the following steps: Step 1: Use several hexagonal grids of the same size to grid over the topographic map of the typhoon landfall area, use different colors to represent different landform features, and connect the center points of the hexagonal grids containing road networks and flight routes to represent the land features, thus obtaining the display map; Step 2: Based on the designed display map, set the display items: use equipment for transporting people as the main evacuation display items, use emergency evacuation equipment as the auxiliary evacuation display items, use typhoons as the main disaster display items, use landslides, waterlogging and mudslides as secondary disaster display items, and use road conditions as annotation display items. Step 3: Set the rules for the display object to perform simulations on the display map: Set the maneuver rules for the display object based on its movement speed, road conditions, and weather conditions, and set the rules for the occurrence of random events during simulations based on the display object's historical failure probability and remaining travel distance.

4. The demonstration method for typhoon disaster emergency evacuation according to claim 3, characterized in that: Before using several identical hexagonal grids to cover the topographic map of the typhoon landfall site in step 2, the scale is set according to the size and spacing of the main evacuation display objects, and the topographic map is scaled.

5. The demonstration method for typhoon disaster emergency evacuation according to claim 3, characterized in that: The main evacuation display items mentioned in step 2 include buses, private cars, ambulances, assault boats, fire trucks, and mechanical equipment. The auxiliary evacuation display items include emergency command vehicles, road rescue vehicles, and emergency communication vehicles. The road conditions include accidents, breakdowns, and congestion.

6. The demonstration method for typhoon disaster emergency evacuation according to claim 3, characterized in that: The maneuvering rules mentioned in step 3 include: (1) Vehicles in the main evacuation exhibits can only travel along the roads in the road network, and ships can only travel along the routes; (2) The main evacuation display in progress must not surpass other main evacuation displays in front of it; (3) People must not get on or off vehicles or boats before the main evacuation displays have reached their destination; (4) The number of hexagonal squares that the main evacuation display can move each round is: w=w1w2w3...w n ; In the formula, n is the number of hexagonal squares that the main evacuation display can move in each round; w is the weight of the total influencing factors; w i is the weight of the i-th influencing factor; v is the speed of the vehicle or ship during normal operation; t is the set time for each round; d is the actual distance represented by each hexagonal grid.

7. A demonstration method for typhoon disaster emergency evacuation according to claim 5, characterized in that: The rules for the demonstration of the exhibits on the display map in step 3 also include application rules, which include setting the maximum number of passengers for buses, private cars, and speedboats.

8. A demonstration method for emergency evacuation during a typhoon disaster according to claim 5, characterized in that: The rules for the display objects in step 3 to be simulated on the display map also include control rules, which include: setting the function of fire trucks to direct traffic, the function of ambulances to rescue the wounded, the function of mechanical equipment to restore communication, and setting the maximum number of wounded persons that an ambulance can carry.

9. A demonstration method for emergency evacuation during a typhoon disaster according to claim 3, characterized in that: In step 1, blue squares represent water sources, dark brown squares represent mountains, grass green squares represent forests, and black solid lines represent road networks and flight routes.

Images