Switch cabinet safety period prediction method

Abstract

According to the switch cabinet safety period prediction method provided by the invention, the simulation safety period and the actual safety period of the switch cabinet are combined, so that the problems that the actual safety period of the switch cabinet is difficult to detect and the simulation safety period prediction is inaccurate are solved, and the safety period prediction accuracy is improved on the basis of the simulation safety period. The simulation safety period is correspondingly adjusted through the actual safety period, so that the finally output prediction safety period is consistent with the actual situation as far as possible, and the prediction accuracy and the prediction efficiency are guaranteed as far as possible.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of switchgear, and particularly to a method for predicting the safety cycle of a switchgear. Background Art

[0002] The main function of the switchgear is to switch, control, and protect electrical equipment during the processes of power generation, transmission, distribution, and power conversion in the power system. The safe use of the switchgear can ensure the normal operation of the power system, and further ensure the order and stability of production and life. To ensure the normal use of the switchgear, it is necessary to predict the safety cycle of the switchgear in advance, and then replace, repair, and maintain the switchgear in a timely manner when the safety cycle is reached.

[0003] However, on the one hand, due to the different usage environments of the switchgear, the impacts on the safe usage cycle of the switchgear are also different, and the accuracy of predicting the safety cycle of the switchgear through software or model simulation is not high; at the same time, the usage cycle of the switchgear is often 10 - 20 years, and the cost of simply conducting in - machine testing on the switchgear is too high.

[0004] Therefore, there is an urgent need to provide a method for predicting the safety cycle of a switchgear to solve the defects and deficiencies existing in the above - mentioned prior art. Summary of the Invention

[0005] To solve the defects and deficiencies existing in the above - mentioned prior art, the present invention proposes a method for predicting the safety cycle of a switchgear.

[0006] The present invention adopts the following technical solutions: A method for predicting the safety cycle of a switchgear, comprising the following steps: S1: Establish a simulation model corresponding to the selected switchgear; S2: Set threshold parameters corresponding to the switchgear in the simulation model; S3: Simulate the operation process of the switchgear in the simulation model to obtain the simulated safety cycle of the switchgear; S4: Select an actual switchgear corresponding to the selected switchgear and set its test start and end times; S5: Regularly detect the internal environment parameters of the actual switchgear at preset time intervals; S6: Collect and statistically analyze the regularly detected data; S7: According to the over - limit data in the regularly detected data collected and statistically analyzed, respectively adjust the threshold parameters set in step S2 and the simulated safety cycle in step S3 to obtain the actual safety cycle of the switchgear; S8: Compare the actual safety cycle with the simulated safety cycle to determine the deviation between the two; S9: Output the predicted safety cycle of the switchgear according to the deviation value between the two; S10: Optimize the simulation model established in step S1 according to the deviation between the two.

[0007] As a further preferred embodiment of the present invention, in step S2, the threshold parameters at least include the internal temperature threshold, humidity threshold, vibration offset threshold, voltage threshold and current threshold of the switchgear.

[0008] As a further preferred embodiment of the present invention, in step S4, being the same as the selected switchgear correspondingly includes: the type, model and parameters of the actual switchgear are the same as those of the selected switchgear.

[0009] As a further preferred embodiment of the present invention, in step S5, the frequency of regularly detecting the internal environment of the actual switchgear can be adjusted according to the overlimit data: When overlimit data is generated, correspondingly increase the frequency of regular detection; When no overlimit data is generated, keep the frequency of regular detection unchanged.

[0010] As a further preferred embodiment of the present invention, in step S5, the environmental parameters at least include the internal environment temperature and humidity of the switchgear, the vibration offset of the internal components of the switchgear, and the voltage and current at the plug-in position.

[0011] As a further preferred embodiment of the present invention, in step S6, the regular detection data includes qualified data and overlimit data, and the qualified data and overlimit data are respectively classified and counted.

[0012] As a further preferred embodiment of the present invention, in step S7, the overlimit data includes the overlimit times and overlimit amplitude, wherein, the overlimit times include the number of times that the regular detection data exceeds the corresponding threshold parameters within a preset time period; the overlimit amplitude includes the proportion of the exceeded part to the qualified part when the regular detection data exceeds the corresponding threshold parameters within a preset time period.

[0013] As a further preferred embodiment of the present invention, in step S7, when the overlimit times increase, correspondingly reduce the simulated safety cycle in step S3; when the overlimit amplitude increases, correspondingly reduce the threshold parameters set in step S2.

[0014] As a further preferred embodiment of the present invention, in step S7, as the overlimit times gradually increase, the degree of reduction of the simulated safety cycle in step S3 gradually increases; As the over-limit amplitude gradually increases, the degree of reduction of the threshold parameter set in step S2 gradually increases.

[0015] As a further preferred embodiment of the present invention, in step S9, When the deviation value between the two is within the preset range, the simulated safety period is used as the predicted safety period of the switchgear cabinet; When the deviation value between the two exceeds the preset range, the actual safety period is used as the predicted safety period of the switchgear cabinet.

[0016] Compared with the prior art, the advantages and positive effects achieved by the present invention are as follows: 1) The present invention provides a method for predicting the safety period of a switchgear cabinet. By combining the simulated safety period and the actual safety period of the switchgear cabinet, it solves the problems that it is difficult to detect the actual safety period of the switchgear cabinet and the inaccurate prediction of the simulated safety period. On the basis of the simulated safety period, the simulated safety period is correspondingly adjusted by the actual safety period, so that the finally output predicted safety period is as consistent with the actual situation as possible, so as to ensure the prediction accuracy and prediction efficiency as much as possible.

[0017] 2) The present invention provides a method for predicting the safety period of a switchgear cabinet. By setting that when the over-limit times increase, the simulated safety period in step S3 is correspondingly reduced; and when the over-limit amplitude increases, the threshold parameter set in step S2 is correspondingly reduced. This is because the appearance of each over-limit data will reduce the current life of the switchgear cabinet and reduce the tolerance of the switchgear cabinet to future over-limit conditions, and further have an adverse impact on the future service life of the switchgear cabinet. By correspondingly adjusting the threshold parameter and the simulated safety period after each over-limit data, the prediction environment is made consistent with the environment of the switchgear cabinet after encountering over-limit data, thereby further improving the prediction accuracy and prediction credibility.

[0018] 3) The present invention provides a method for predicting the safety period of a switchgear cabinet. By setting that as the over-limit times gradually increase, the degree of reduction of the simulated safety period in step S3 gradually increases; and as the over-limit amplitude gradually increases, the degree of reduction of the threshold parameter set in step S2 gradually increases. This is because the reduction of the current life of the switchgear cabinet and the reduction of the tolerance of the switchgear cabinet to future over-limit conditions caused by the appearance of each over-limit data are not linear relationships. The increase of each over-limit times and the increase of the over-limit amplitude may directly lead to the reduction of the performance of the switch or even direct scrapping. Therefore, this setting also makes the influence of the appearance of over-limit data on the simulated safety period and the threshold parameter as consistent with the environment of the switchgear cabinet actually encountering over-limit data as possible, thereby further improving the prediction accuracy and prediction credibility.

[0019] 4) The present invention provides a method for predicting the safety cycle of a switchgear cabinet. By setting a comparison between the actual safety cycle and the simulated safety cycle to determine the deviation between the two, and according to the deviation value between the two, the predicted safety cycle of the switchgear cabinet is output; and specifically setting that when the deviation value between the two is within the preset range, the simulated safety cycle is used as the predicted safety cycle of the switchgear cabinet; at this time, it indicates that the deviation between the two is small, and both the actual safety cycle and the simulated safety cycle can represent the predicted safety cycle at this time. However, compared with the actual safety cycle, the replacement of the simulated safety cycle can be closer to the actual average level. Therefore, at this time, the simulated safety cycle is used as the predicted safety cycle of the switchgear cabinet; and when the deviation value between the two exceeds the preset range, the actual safety cycle is used as the predicted safety cycle of the switchgear cabinet. At this time, it indicates that the deviation between the two is large, and due to the differences in the actual use environment of the switchgear cabinet, it shows that the simulated safety cycle at this time does not fully conform to the actual use environment of the switchgear cabinet and there are large differences. Therefore, at this time, the actual safety cycle needs to be used as the predicted safety cycle of the switchgear cabinet. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0020] Figure 1 The figure is a flowchart of the steps of a method for predicting the safety cycle of a switchgear cabinet proposed by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0021] Next, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described in conjunction with the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all of the embodiments. All other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art based on the embodiments of the present invention without creative efforts shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0022] In the description of the present invention, it should be noted that the orientation or positional relationship indicated by the terms "upper", "lower", "inner", "outer", "front end", "rear end", "both ends", "one end", "the other end", etc. is based on the orientation or positional relationship shown in the drawings, and is only for the convenience of describing the present invention and simplifying the description, rather than indicating or implying that the device or element referred to must have a specific orientation, be constructed and operated in a specific orientation, and therefore cannot be understood as a limitation of the present invention. In addition, the terms "first" and "second" are only used for descriptive purposes and cannot be understood as indicating or implying relative importance.

[0023] In the description of the present invention, it should be noted that, unless otherwise clearly specified and defined, terms such as "installation", "equipped with", "connection", etc. should be understood in a broad sense. For example, "connection" can be a fixed connection, a detachable connection, or an integral connection; it can be a mechanical connection or an electrical connection; it can be directly connected or indirectly connected through an intermediate medium, and it can be the communication inside two components. For those of ordinary skill in the art, the specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood according to specific situations.

[0024] [First Embodiment] As Figure 1 shown is a method for predicting the safety cycle of a switchgear provided by the first embodiment of the present invention, including the following steps: S1: Establish a simulation model corresponding to the selected switchgear; the selected switchgear can be selected according to actual prediction requirements for switchgear of corresponding types, models, and parameters; S2: Set threshold parameters corresponding to the switchgear in the simulation model; the threshold parameters involved in this embodiment at least include the internal temperature threshold, humidity threshold, vibration offset threshold, voltage threshold, and current threshold of the switchgear. To further improve the prediction accuracy, other required threshold parameters can also be added as needed; S3: Simulate the operation process of the switchgear in the simulation model to obtain the simulated safety cycle of the switchgear; S4: Select an actual switchgear corresponding to the same selected switchgear and set its test start and end times; the actual switchgear corresponding to the same selected switchgear includes: the type, model, and parameters of the actual switchgear are the same as those of the selected switchgear, so as to further ensure that corresponding simulation predictions and actual predictions are respectively carried out for the safety cycles of the same switchgear; S5: Regularly detect the internal environment parameters of the actual switchgear in a preset time period. The preset time period in this embodiment can be set to 6 - 12 months to predict the overall safety cycle of the switchgear in a longer usage period based on the safety cycle status of the switchgear in a shorter preset time period, so as to reduce the time cost of real - machine detection of the switchgear; Preferably, the frequency of regularly detecting the internal environment of the actual switchgear can be adjusted according to the over - limit data: When over - limit data is generated, correspondingly increase the frequency of regular detection; When no over - limit data is generated, keep the frequency of regular detection unchanged; Thus, the over - limit condition of the switchgear is detected multiple times near the time node of the over - limit period to improve subsequent prediction evidence, and at the same time, it also avoids the problem that the switchgear may be damaged and invalid in the short term due to the low detection frequency, resulting in the inability to detect; In this embodiment, the environmental parameters at least include the internal environmental temperature and humidity of the switch cabinet, the vibration offset of the internal components of the switch cabinet, and the voltage and current at the insertion position, so as to determine whether an over-limit condition occurs by comparing the detected values thereof with the corresponding threshold parameters in step S2; S6: Collect and statistically analyze the regularly detected data; the regularly detected data includes qualified data and over-limit data, and the qualified data and over-limit data are respectively classified and statistically analyzed to facilitate subsequent corresponding comparison steps; S7: According to the over-limit data in the regularly detected data collected and statistically analyzed, correspondingly adjust the threshold parameters set in step S2 and the simulated safety period in step S3 to obtain the actual safety period of the safety cabinet; In this embodiment, the over-limit data includes the over-limit times and the over-limit amplitude, where, the over-limit times include the number of times that the regularly detected data exceeds the corresponding threshold parameters within a preset time period; the amplitude includes the proportion of the exceeded part to the qualified part when the regularly detected data exceeds the corresponding threshold parameters within a preset time period; Preferably, when the over-limit times increase, correspondingly reduce the simulated safety period in step S3; when the over-limit amplitude increases, correspondingly reduce the threshold parameters set in step S2; This is because the occurrence of each over-limit data will reduce the current life of the switch cabinet and the tolerance of the switch cabinet to future over-limit conditions, and further have an adverse impact on the future service life of the switch cabinet. By correspondingly adjusting the threshold parameters and the simulated safety period after each over-limit data, the predicted environment is made consistent with the environment of the switch cabinet after encountering over-limit data, thereby further improving the prediction accuracy and prediction credibility; As a further preference, as the over-limit times gradually increase, the degree of reduction of the simulated safety period in step S3 gradually increases; as the over-limit amplitude gradually increases, the degree of reduction of the threshold parameters set in step S2 gradually increases.

[0025] This is because the reduction of the current life of the switch cabinet and the reduction of the tolerance of the switch cabinet to future over-limit conditions caused by the occurrence of each over-limit data are not linear relationships. The increase of each over-limit time and the increase of the over-limit amplitude may directly lead to the reduction of the performance of the switch or even direct scrapping. Therefore, this setting also makes the influence of the occurrence of over-limit data on the simulated safety period and the threshold parameters as consistent as possible with the environment of the switch cabinet when actually encountering over-limit data, thereby further improving the prediction accuracy and prediction credibility; S8: Compare the actual safety cycle with the simulated safety cycle to determine the deviation between the two; S9: Output the predicted safety cycle of the switchgear according to the deviation value between the two; specifically: When the deviation value between the two is within the preset range, use the simulated safety cycle as the predicted safety cycle of the switchgear; this indicates that the deviation between the two is small, and both the actual safety cycle and the simulated safety cycle can represent the predicted safety cycle at this time. However, compared with the actual safety cycle, the replacement of the simulated safety cycle can be closer to the actual average level. Therefore, the simulated safety cycle is used as the predicted safety cycle of the switchgear at this time; When the deviation value between the two exceeds the preset range, use the actual safety cycle as the predicted safety cycle of the switchgear; this indicates that the deviation between the two is large, and due to the differences in the actual use environment of the switchgear, it shows that the simulated safety cycle at this time does not fully conform to the actual use environment of the switchgear and there are large differences. Therefore, the actual safety cycle needs to be used as the predicted safety cycle of the switchgear at this time; S10: Optimize the simulation model established in step S1 according to the deviation between the two, so as to further improve the accuracy of the simulated safety cycle of the established simulation model.

[0026] As described above, it is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it is not a limitation of the present invention in other forms. Any person skilled in the art may use the technical content disclosed above to make changes or modifications into equivalent embodiments with equivalent changes and apply them to other fields. However, as long as it does not depart from the technical solution content of the present invention, any simple modification, equivalent change and modification made to the above embodiments according to the technical essence of the present invention still belong to the protection scope of the technical solution of the present invention. In the description of the present invention, it should be noted that unless otherwise clearly defined and limited, the terms "installation", "connection" and "connection" should be understood in a broad sense. For example, it can be a fixed connection, a detachable connection, or an integral connection; it can be a mechanical connection, or an electrical connection; it can be directly connected, or indirectly connected through an intermediate medium, and it can be the communication inside two components. For those of ordinary skill in the art, the specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood through specific situations.

Claims

1. A switch cabinet safety period prediction method, comprising the following steps: S1: Establish a simulation model corresponding to the selected switchgear; S2: setting threshold parameters corresponding to the switch cabinet in the simulation model; S3: simulating the operation process of the switch cabinet in the simulation model to obtain a simulated safety cycle of the switch cabinet; S4: Select the actual switch cabinet that corresponds to the selected switch cabinet, and set its test start and end time; S5: Regularly test the internal environmental parameters of the actual switch cabinet at a preset time period; S6: Collect and compile statistics on regular test data; S7: According to the over-limit data in the collected and statistically analyzed periodic detection data, the threshold parameters set in step S2 and the simulated safety cycle in step S3 are adjusted accordingly to obtain the actual safety cycle of the safety cabinet; S8: Compare the actual safety cycle with the simulated safety cycle to determine the deviation between the two; S9: output the predicted safety cycle of the switch cabinet according to the deviation value of the two; S10: Optimize the simulation model established in step S1 according to the deviation between the two.

2. A switch cabinet safety period prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S2, the threshold parameters include at least a switch cabinet internal temperature threshold, a humidity threshold, a vibration offset threshold, a voltage threshold, and a current threshold.

3. A switch cabinet safety period prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The same as the selected switch cabinet in step S4 includes: the type, model and parameters of the actual switch cabinet are the same as those of the selected switch cabinet.

4. A switch cabinet safety period prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S5, the frequency of regular detection of the internal environment of the actual switch cabinet can be adjusted according to the over-limit data: When out-of-limit data is generated, the frequency of regular inspection shall be increased accordingly; When no limit-exceeding data is generated, the frequency of regular inspections is maintained unchanged.

5. A switch cabinet safety period prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S5, the environmental parameters at least include the internal environment temperature and humidity of the switch cabinet, the vibration offset of the internal components of the switch cabinet, and the voltage and current of the plug-in position.

6. A switch cabinet safety period prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S6, the periodic detection data includes qualified data and exceeded data, and the qualified data and exceeded data are classified and counted respectively.

7. A switch cabinet safety period prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S7, the over-limit data includes the over-limit times and the over-limit amplitude, wherein: The number of times exceeding the limit includes the number of times the regular detection data exceeds the corresponding threshold parameter within a preset time period; The over-limit value includes the ratio of the excess portion to the qualified portion when the regularly detected data exceeds the corresponding threshold parameter within a preset time period.

8. A switch cabinet safety period prediction method according to claim 7, characterized in that: In step S7, When the number of times exceeding the limit increases, the safety period simulated in step S3 is correspondingly reduced; When the over-limit value increases, the threshold parameter set in step S2 is correspondingly reduced.

9. A switch cabinet safety period prediction method according to claim 8, characterized in that: In step S7, As the number of times exceeding the limit gradually increases, the degree of reduction of the safety period simulated in step S3 gradually increases; As the over-limit value gradually increases, the degree of reduction of the threshold parameter set in step S2 gradually increases.

10. A switch cabinet safety period prediction method according to claim 1, characterized in that: In the step S9, When the deviation between the two is within the preset range, the simulated safety cycle is used as the predicted safety cycle of the switchgear; When the deviation between the two exceeds the preset range, the actual safety cycle is used as the predicted safety cycle of the switch cabinet.

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