Method for calculating installed capacity of source-network-load-storage integrated project and related device

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for calculating the installed capacity of a source-grid-load-storage integrated project and a related device, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining a load needed by the source-grid-load-storage integrated project, and predicting the range of the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation equipment needed by the project through the experience of an expert; the method comprises the following steps: determining an installed capacity range to ensure that power generation equipment configured in the installed capacity range can support normal operation of a project, then determining N installed capacities in the range according to a preset step length, and fitting the N installed capacities with power generation rules of wind power and power generation equipment in a target area respectively to obtain wind power and photovoltaic power generation equipment configured with corresponding installed capacities; according to the method, N wind and light output time sequence curves of the output power of the power generation equipment changing along with time are obtained, finally, calculation is performed according to the N wind and light output time sequence curves, the installed capacity capable of meeting the specific requirements of the project is determined, and therefore the corresponding power generation equipment can be arranged in a target area according to the calculated installed capacity. And a foundation is laid for resource optimization of the project.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the field of power systems, and specifically to a method for estimating installed capacity of a source-grid-load-storage integrated project and related devices. Background Art

[0002] Source-grid-load-storage integration refers to the construction of a comprehensive energy system that can operate stably by integrating power sources (such as wind power, photovoltaics), power grids, loads and energy storage, thereby providing electricity supply to local users.

[0003] In related technologies, through the integrated production simulation software of power system source, grid, load and storage, the ratio of various elements can be optimized, so as to make full use of the abundant energy resources in the region through dynamic adjustment of each element.

[0004] However, when carrying out integrated source-grid-load-storage projects, it is necessary to estimate the installed capacity based on project requirements to ensure that the equipment configured according to the installed capacity can provide sufficient electricity to the region. Summary of the invention

[0005] In view of this, the present application provides a method and related devices for calculating the installed capacity of a source-grid-load-storage integrated project. According to the needs of different projects, the installed capacity range can be quickly determined on the basis of satisfying the power and electricity balance, and then one or more installed capacities that meet the project requirements can be calculated within the range according to the specific project requirements. Therefore, corresponding power generation equipment can be equipped in the target area according to the calculated installed capacity, laying the foundation for resource optimization of the project.

[0006] To solve the above problems, the technical solutions provided by this application are as follows:

[0007] On the one hand, the present application provides a method for estimating the installed capacity of a source-grid-load-storage integrated project, the method comprising:

[0008] Obtaining the required load of the project, the constraints of the project, and the wind and solar output characteristics of the target area, wherein the project is a source-grid-load-storage integrated project, the target area is an area where the project is to be implemented, and the wind and solar output characteristics are used to identify the power generation rules of wind and photovoltaic equipment;

[0009] According to the demand load, a scale interval is predicted through expert experience, and the scale interval is used to identify the installed capacity range of wind power and photovoltaic equipment;

[0010] According to a preset step length, N scales are determined in the scale interval;

[0011] Fitting the N scales with the wind and solar power output characteristics respectively to obtain N wind and solar power output timing curves corresponding to the N scales one by one, wherein each of the N wind and solar power output timing curves is used to identify the change of the actual output power of the wind and photovoltaic power generation equipment over time at the corresponding scale;

[0012] Calculations are performed respectively according to the N wind and solar power output timing curves to determine a scale that satisfies the constraint conditions.

[0013] In a possible implementation, after predicting the scale range based on the demand load through expert experience, the method further includes:

[0014] Determining whether a boundary value of the scale interval satisfies a first constraint condition according to the plant area loss and the equipment simultaneity rate of the target area, where the first constraint condition is one or more of the constraint conditions;

[0015] If the boundary value does not satisfy the first constraint condition, the scale interval is reduced.

[0016] In a possible implementation, the wind and solar power output characteristics are obtained in the following manner:

[0017] Acquiring historical meteorological data of the target area;

[0018] The wind and solar power output characteristics are obtained by performing simulation based on the geographic information of the target area and the historical meteorological data.

[0019] In a possible implementation, the constraint conditions include green electricity consumption capacity and new energy utilization rate constraint conditions, and the calculation is performed according to the N wind and solar power output timing curves to determine the scale that meets the constraint conditions, including:

[0020] Calculate the N wind and solar power output time series curves respectively to obtain corresponding N groups of evaluation results, each of the N groups of evaluation results including green power consumption capacity and new energy utilization rate indicators;

[0021] If M groups of evaluation results among the N groups of evaluation results are within the constraint conditions, the scales satisfying the constraint conditions are determined to be the scales corresponding to the M groups of evaluation results respectively.

[0022] In a possible implementation manner, the M is greater than 1, and the method further includes:

[0023] The scales corresponding to the M groups of evaluation results are evaluated through economic calculations to determine the optimal scale.

[0024] In a possible implementation, the method further includes:

[0025] Obtaining a load demand time series curve of the source-grid-load-storage integration project;

[0026] Based on the temporal and spatial matching degree between the optimal-scale wind and solar power output timing curve and the load demand timing curve, each element of the source-grid-load-storage integration project is dynamically adjusted.

[0027] On the other hand, the present application provides a device for estimating installed capacity of a source-grid-load-storage integrated project, the device comprising an acquisition unit, a prediction unit, a determination unit, and a fitting unit:

[0028] The acquisition unit is used to acquire the required load of the project, the constraint conditions of the project and the wind and solar output characteristics of the target area, the project is a source-grid-load-storage integrated mode project, the target area is an area where the project is to be implemented, and the wind and solar output characteristics are used to identify the power generation law of wind and photovoltaic equipment;

[0029] The prediction unit is used to predict the scale interval according to the demand load through expert experience, and the scale interval is used to identify the installed capacity range of wind power and photovoltaic equipment;

[0030] The determining unit is used to determine N scales in the scale interval according to a preset step size;

[0031] The fitting unit is used to fit the N scales with the wind and solar power output characteristics respectively, to obtain N wind and solar power output timing curves corresponding to the N scales one by one, each of the N wind and solar power output timing curves being used to identify the change of the actual output power of the wind and photovoltaic power generation equipment over time at the corresponding scale;

[0032] The determination unit is further used to perform calculations according to the N wind and solar power output timing curves respectively to determine the scale that satisfies the constraint condition.

[0033] In a possible implementation manner, the determining unit is further configured to:

[0034] Determining whether a boundary value of the scale interval satisfies a first constraint condition according to the plant area loss and the equipment simultaneity rate of the target area, where the first constraint condition is one or more of the constraint conditions;

[0035] If the boundary value does not satisfy the first constraint condition, the scale interval is reduced.

[0036] In a possible implementation, the wind and solar power output characteristics are obtained in the following manner:

[0037] Acquiring historical meteorological data of the target area;

[0038] The wind and solar power output characteristics are obtained by performing simulation based on the geographic information of the target area and the historical meteorological data.

[0039] In a possible implementation, the constraint conditions include green electricity consumption capacity and new energy utilization rate constraint conditions, and the determination unit is further used to:

[0040] Calculate the N wind and solar power output time series curves respectively to obtain corresponding N groups of evaluation results, each of the N groups of evaluation results including green power consumption capacity and new energy utilization rate indicators;

[0041] If M groups of evaluation results among the N groups of evaluation results are within the constraint conditions, the scales satisfying the constraint conditions are determined to be the scales corresponding to the M groups of evaluation results respectively.

[0042] In a possible implementation manner, the M is greater than 1, and the determining unit is further configured to:

[0043] The scales corresponding to the M groups of evaluation results are evaluated through economic calculations to determine the optimal scale.

[0044] In a possible implementation, the device further includes a dynamic adjustment unit:

[0045] The dynamic adjustment unit is used to obtain the load demand time series curve of the source-grid-load-storage integration project;

[0046] Based on the temporal and spatial matching degree between the optimal-scale wind and solar power output timing curve and the load demand timing curve, each element of the source-grid-load-storage integration project is dynamically adjusted.

[0047] In another aspect, the present application provides a computer device, the computer device comprising a processor and a memory:

[0048] The memory is used to store computer programs;

[0049] The processor is configured to execute any one of the above methods according to the computer program.

[0050] On the other hand, the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium, wherein the computer-readable storage medium is used to store a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a computer device, it implements any of the methods described above.

[0051] On the other hand, the present application provides a computer program product including a computer program, which, when executed on a computer device, enables the computer device to execute any one of the methods described above.

[0052] It can be seen from the above technical scheme that by obtaining the load required by the source-grid-load-storage integration project, the installed capacity range of wind and photovoltaic power generation equipment required by the project can be preliminarily predicted through expert experience to ensure that the configuration of power generation equipment within the installed capacity range can support the normal operation of the project, and then according to the preset step size, N installed capacities are determined within the range, and then the power generation law of wind and power generation equipment in the target area where the project is to be implemented is fitted with the predicted N installed capacities respectively, and after the wind and photovoltaic power generation equipment with corresponding installed capacity are configured, N wind and photovoltaic output timing curves of the wind and photovoltaic power generation equipment in the target area that change with time are obtained, and finally, according to the N wind and photovoltaic output timing curves, calculations are performed separately to determine the installed capacity that can meet the specific requirements of the project. This technical scheme can quickly determine the installed capacity range on the basis of meeting the power and electricity balance according to the needs of different projects, and then calculate the installed capacity that meets the project requirements within the range according to the specific project requirements, so that the corresponding power generation equipment can be equipped in the target area according to the calculated installed capacity, laying the foundation for resource optimization of the project. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0053] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments recorded in the present application. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying any creative work.

[0054] Figure 1 A schematic flow chart of a method for estimating installed capacity of a source-grid-load-storage integrated project provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0055] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the steps of a method for estimating the installed capacity of a source-grid-load-storage integrated project provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0056] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of a long time series production simulation provided in an embodiment of the present application;

[0057] Figure 4 A typical daily production simulation schematic diagram provided for an embodiment of the present application;

[0058] Figure 5 A schematic diagram of an installed capacity estimation device for a source-grid-load-storage integrated project provided in an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0059] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the solution of the present application, the technical solution in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present application. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present application, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments in the present application, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of this application.

[0060] As described in the background technology, in the related technology, through the power system source-grid-load-storage integrated production simulation software, the ratio of various elements such as power supply, power grid, load and energy storage in the source-grid-load-storage integrated operation system can be optimized, so as to make full use of the abundant energy in the region through dynamic adjustment of each element.

[0061] However, when carrying out integrated source-grid-load-storage projects, it is necessary to estimate the installed capacity based on project requirements to ensure that the configured new energy equipment maintains the normal operation of the region's power system.

[0062] The present application provides a method for estimating the installed capacity of a source-grid-load-storage integrated project and a related device. By obtaining the load required by the source-grid-load-storage integrated project, the installed capacity range of wind power and photovoltaic power generation equipment required by the project can be preliminarily predicted through expert experience to ensure that the configuration of power generation equipment within the installed capacity range can support the normal operation of the project. Then, according to a preset step size, N installed capacities are determined within the range. After that, the power generation laws of wind power and power generation equipment in the target area where the project is to be implemented are respectively fitted with the predicted N installed capacities. After the wind power and photovoltaic power generation equipment with corresponding installed capacities are configured, N wind-solar output timing curves of the wind power and photovoltaic power generation equipment in the target area that change with time are obtained. Finally, calculations are performed separately according to the N wind-solar output timing curves to determine the installed capacity that can meet the specific requirements of the project. The technical solution can quickly determine the installed capacity range on the basis of meeting the power and electricity balance according to the needs of different projects, and then the installed capacity required by the project is estimated within the range according to the specific project requirements, so that the corresponding power generation equipment can be equipped in the target area according to the estimated installed capacity, laying a foundation for resource optimization of the project.

[0063] The solution provided in the embodiments of the present application relates to the field of power systems and is specifically described through the following embodiments.

[0064] See also Figure 1 As shown, it is a flow chart of a method for estimating installed capacity of a source-grid-load-storage integrated project provided in an embodiment of the present application. In this embodiment, it can be executed by a computer device as an example.

[0065] S101: Obtain the project's demand load, project constraints, and wind and solar output characteristics of the target area.

[0066] Among them, the project is an integrated source-grid-load-storage model project, and the demand load refers to the electricity demand that is sufficient to support the smooth operation of the system when implementing the integrated source-grid-load-storage project. In this application, the source in the integrated source-grid-load-storage project refers to new energy, mainly including wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation, which provides electricity to the project through wind or photovoltaic equipment. The target area is the area where the project is pre-implemented, and the wind and solar output characteristics are used to identify the power generation rules of wind and photovoltaic equipment.

[0067] Constraints refer to the project requirements of integrated source-grid-load-storage projects. For example, they may include requirements in terms of power source and load matching, energy storage capacity configuration, green electricity absorption capacity, and new energy utilization rate. The constraints in different regions or different projects may vary.

[0068] The wind and solar power output characteristics of the target area can be obtained through the wind and solar power resource data of previous years. For example, the wind resource and light resource data sets of the previous year in the area can be analyzed separately through data mining technology to obtain the wind and solar power output characteristics of the area, or simulation experiments can be carried out through the historical meteorological data of the area to simulate the wind and solar power output characteristics of the area.

[0069] In a possible implementation, the wind and solar power output characteristics can be obtained in the following ways:

[0070] Obtain historical meteorological data for the target area;

[0071] Simulation is performed based on the geographic information of the target area and historical meteorological data to obtain the wind and solar power output characteristics.

[0072] Geographic information refers to data related to the geographical location and terrain features of the target area. Historical meteorological data of the target area, such as wind speed and radiation, can be obtained through numerous websites at home and abroad. Simulation experiments can be carried out using the geographic information of the target area and long-term series of historical meteorological data to obtain the wind and solar output characteristics of the target area.

[0073] Therefore, simulating the wind and solar power output characteristics of the target area through simulation experiments is more realistic and scientific, thus providing reliable data support for the planning and operation of source-grid-load-storage integrated projects.

[0074] S102: Predict the scale range based on the demand load and through expert experience.

[0075] The scale range is used to identify the installed capacity range of wind and photovoltaic power generation equipment.

[0076] The implementation of source-grid-load-storage projects requires ensuring the power balance within the system, monitoring the reverse power transmission, and adding anti-backflow devices when necessary. The power balance constraint within the system can be expressed by the following formula:

[0077]

[0078] P L (t) is the system demand load at time t, P 0 (t) is the adjustable load at time t, P w (t) is the wind power output at time t, P PV (t) is the photovoltaic output at time t, P bess (t) is the energy storage output at time t, P g (t) is the mains power supply at time t, P a (t) is the wind and solar power abandoned at time t.

[0079] The distribution of wind energy at different spatial locations within the same wind farm is affected by factors such as terrain, site area, wind turbine arrangement, and wake effect. The output power characteristics of a wind farm are quite different from those of a single unit. Therefore, in the same wind farm group, there are few cases where there is no wind and the output is zero. At the same time, there are also few cases where all wind turbines in the wind farm group are in full power. Affected by the spatial distribution scale, the volatility of wind power output will also change. The larger the distribution scale, the more obvious the smoothing effect of the wind farm output.

[0080] Based on the above analysis, taking the Mengxi power grid as an example, the wind power output simultaneous rate is 0.7, and the maximum output of the wind farm is 700,000W under the installed capacity of 1 million power. Considering the energy storage charging when the wind farm has the maximum output, the energy storage capacity is configured as the minimum of 15% of the installed capacity, and the calculation is performed according to the following formula:

[0081] P W -P bess -P a =P L

[0082] Where P W For wind power output, P bess For energy storage output, P a is the abandoned wind and solar power, P L is the demand load. Assuming that the abandoned wind and solar power power is 10% of the installed capacity, the relationship between the installed capacity of the wind farm (a) and the demand load (b) is:

[0083] 0.7a--0.15a--0.1a==b

[0084] It is concluded that a = 2.2b. If there is no energy storage and no wind or solar power abandonment, a = 1.42b. Then, based on the wind and solar resource conditions and load characteristics in different regions of the country, the comprehensive forecast of installed capacity should be in the range of 1.5 to 2 times the demand load.

[0085] Through expert experience, 1.5-2 times the demand load can be determined as the installed capacity range to ensure that the installed capacity can maintain the power balance within the system of the source-grid-load-storage integrated project.

[0086] In a possible implementation, after predicting the first scale interval based on the demand load through expert experience, the method further includes:

[0087] According to the plant area loss and equipment simultaneity rate of the target area, determine whether the boundary value of the scale interval meets the first constraint condition;

[0088] If the boundary value does not satisfy the first constraint, reduce the scale interval.

[0089] Among them, the first constraint condition is one or more of the constraints of the above-mentioned source-grid-load-storage integrated project, based on which a preliminary judgment is made on the installed capacity range.

[0090] As an example, a preliminary judgment is made on the installed capacity range based on the green electricity consumption rate requirements of the project. Assuming that the green electricity consumption rate requirement of the project is above 90%, the installed capacity range is 1.5-2 times of the demand load. After considering the site losses and equipment simultaneity rate in the target area, the green electricity consumption rate at a certain moment under this installed capacity is only 70%. This may be due to the waste of resources caused by excessive installed capacity. The scale range can be narrowed to 1.5-1.8 times of the demand load.

[0091] Therefore, combined with some requirements of the source-grid-load-storage integration project, a preliminary judgment can be made on the predicted scale range, thereby limiting the range of installed capacity, quickly determining a more appropriate installed capacity range, and improving the work efficiency of installed capacity estimation.

[0092] S103: Determine N scales in the scale interval according to a preset step size.

[0093] The preset step size can be set by the project leader according to the demand load. As an example, the step size is set to 0.1 times the demand load, the scale interval is 1.5-2 times the demand load, and 6 scales can be determined in this scale interval, namely 1.5 times the demand load, 1.6 times the demand load, 1.7 times the demand load, 1.8 times the demand load, 1.9 times the demand load and 2 times the demand load.

[0094] After determining the corresponding scale, the initial energy storage scale can be determined with the minimum ratio through economic constraints, the energy storage configuration capacity can be set, and the upper and lower limits of the energy storage capacity and the energy storage efficiency parameters can be determined to avoid overcharging and over-discharging of energy storage.

[0095] S104: Fitting the N scales with the wind and solar power output characteristics respectively to obtain N wind and solar power output timing curves corresponding to the N scales one by one.

[0096] Among them, each wind and solar power output timing curve is used to identify the change of actual output power of wind and photovoltaic power generation equipment over time at the corresponding scale.

[0097] According to the characteristics of wind and solar power output, a model of how the output power of wind and photovoltaic equipment changes over time can be obtained through time series simulation. By introducing N scales into the model respectively, N wind and solar power output timing curves can be obtained.

[0098] S105: Calculate the N wind and solar power output timing curves respectively to determine the scale that meets the constraint conditions.

[0099] By using the wind and solar power output data at different times in N wind and solar power output time series curves, combined with the theoretical power generation at the corresponding scale and the relevant setting parameters of the energy storage scale, we can calculate indicators such as green electricity absorption capacity, new energy utilization rate and energy storage status at different times, so as to determine one or more scales that can meet the project requirements.

[0100] The following formula can be used to determine whether the energy storage status at different times meets the energy storage capacity constraints corresponding to the project:

[0101]

[0102] Among them, SOC(0) is the initial charge rate of the energy storage system; E bess is the energy storage capacity; SOC min , SOC max are the minimum and maximum charge rates of energy storage respectively.

[0103] E bess-min ≤≤E bess ≤≤E bess-max

[0104] Among them, E bess-min 、E bess-max They are the minimum and maximum configuration capacities of the energy storage battery respectively.

[0105] The green electricity consumption capacity k at different times throughout the year can be calculated using the following formula:

[0106]

[0107] Among them, U' is the actual annual power generation of renewable energy, U is the theoretical annual power generation of renewable energy, X(t) is the theoretical power of renewable energy at the tth hour, P w (t) is the wind power output at time t, P PV (t) is the photovoltaic output at time t, P bess (t) is the energy storage output at time t, P a (t) is the wind and solar power abandoned at time t.

[0108] In a possible implementation, the constraints include green power consumption capacity and new energy utilization rate constraints, which can be calculated based on N wind and solar power output time series curves to obtain corresponding N groups of evaluation results;

[0109] If M groups of evaluation results among N groups of evaluation results are within the constraints, the scales satisfying the constraints are determined to be the scales corresponding to the M groups of evaluation results respectively.

[0110] Each of the N groups of evaluation results includes green electricity absorption capacity and new energy utilization rate indicators.

[0111] The project requirements of different projects may be different. As an example, the requirements of a project are that the green electricity consumption capacity and the utilization rate of new energy are not less than 90%. According to the project, there are three optional installed capacities a, b, and c that meet the power balance conditions within the system. The representative wind and solar output data at a certain moment can be selected from the corresponding wind and solar output timing curve under each installed capacity for calculation, and three groups of calculation results can be obtained. If the green electricity consumption rate and the utilization rate of new energy under installed capacity a are 80% and 75% respectively, the green electricity consumption rate and the utilization rate of new energy under installed capacity b are 90% and 95% respectively, and the green electricity consumption rate and the utilization rate of new energy under installed capacity c are 92% and 90% respectively, it means that the installed capacities b and c both meet the constraints of the project, and one of the installed capacities can be selected to configure the power generation equipment to carry out the project.

[0112] Therefore, according to the specific needs of different projects, the corresponding data can be selected for calculation through the predicted wind and solar output timing curve under the corresponding scale, which effectively improves the calculation efficiency.

[0113] In a possible implementation, M is greater than 1, and the scales corresponding to the M groups of evaluation results are evaluated through economic calculations to determine the optimal scale.

[0114] If multiple installed capacities meet the project requirements, the cost of new energy power generation, energy storage cost, penalty cost for abandoned solar power, etc. can be comprehensively considered to balance economic and environmental benefits.

[0115] Therefore, the technical solution can preliminarily predict the installed capacity range of wind and photovoltaic power generation equipment required by the project through expert experience to ensure that the configuration of power generation equipment within the installed capacity range can support the normal operation of the project, and then determine N installed capacities within the range according to the preset step size, and then fit the power generation laws of wind and power generation equipment in the target area where the project is to be implemented with the predicted N installed capacities respectively, and obtain N wind and photovoltaic output timing curves of wind and photovoltaic power generation equipment in the target area that change with time after configuring the wind and photovoltaic power generation equipment with corresponding installed capacity, and finally calculate respectively according to the N wind and photovoltaic output timing curves to determine the installed capacity that can meet the specific requirements of the project, so that the corresponding power generation equipment can be equipped in the target area according to the inferred installed capacity, laying the foundation for resource optimization of the project.

[0116] In a possible implementation, a load demand time series curve of a source-grid-load-storage integration project is obtained;

[0117] Based on the temporal and spatial matching degree between the optimal-scale wind and solar power output timing curve and the load demand timing curve, the various elements of the source-grid-load-storage integration project are dynamically adjusted.

[0118] The load demand time series curve refers to the curve of the load demand changing over time within a period of time. It can be predicted based on the actual load change curve of similar projects combined with the historical meteorological data of the project and other factors. By analyzing the temporal and spatial matching degree between the load demand time series curve and the wind and solar output time series curve, the power supply, grid, load and energy storage elements of the project can be dynamically adjusted through the control strategy.

[0119] Therefore, by matching and analyzing the load demand timing curve with the wind and solar output timing curve, it is possible to identify the imbalance between supply and demand in different time periods, and dynamically adjust the various elements of the source-grid-load-storage integration project through strategies to optimize the system's operating efficiency.

[0120] In order to more clearly describe the method of calculating the installed capacity of the integrated power generation, grid, load and storage project, see Figure 2 , which is a schematic diagram of the steps of a method for estimating the installed capacity of a source-grid-load-storage integrated project proposed in an embodiment of the present application.

[0121] S1: Obtain the required load, constraints and wind and solar output characteristics.

[0122] The maximum load required by the project, the project requirements and the law of the output power of wind power and photovoltaic power generation equipment in the project implementation area changing over time are obtained, and then step S2 is executed.

[0123] S2: Verify whether the target area meets the land requirements of 1.5-2 times the demand load.

[0124] Within the unit land area, the output power of the power generation equipment has an upper limit. After selecting the target area for the project, it is necessary to determine whether the target area meets the land requirement of 1.5-2 times the demand load based on the maximum output power of the unit motor power generation equipment and the area of ​​the target area. If not, execute step S3; if yes, execute step S5.

[0125] S3: Determine the scale based on available area.

[0126] The available site represents the target area, and the installed capacity that can be equipped is determined according to the area of ​​the target area, and then step S4 is executed.

[0127] S4: Perform timing simulation.

[0128] A timing simulation is performed according to the installed capacity determined in step S3, and then step S9 is executed. Figure 3 A long-time series production simulation schematic diagram is provided for an embodiment of the present application, which represents the change of output power of each element in a source-grid-load-storage project over time within one year. Figure 4 A typical daily production simulation diagram is provided for this application, which reflects the output power of each element of the project every hour within 24 hours of a certain day. Figure 3 and Figure 4 The time series production simulation diagram can provide data support for the calculation of green electricity absorption capacity and new energy utilization rate, thereby helping to verify whether the installed capacity can meet the project constraints.

[0129] S5: sort out the load characteristic data, wind and solar power output data and project constraints, and then execute step S6.

[0130] First, obtain wind and solar time series data, then complete wind and solar output analysis based on meteorological data such as wind speed and irradiance, and then sort out load characteristic data, wind and solar output data and project constraints based on the analysis results.

[0131] S6: Use power and electricity balance to preliminarily determine whether the installed capacity of 1.5-2 times the demand load meets the constraint. If so, execute step S7. If not, narrow the installed capacity range and make another judgment.

[0132] S7: Confirm the priorities of energy storage action, adjustable load, and wind and solar power curtailment according to project requirements to provide a data basis for timing simulation.

[0133] S8: Set the step size, that is, to carry out timing simulation with different installed capacities within the selected range.

[0134] S9: Use economic constraints to determine the initial energy storage capacity with the lowest ratio, and set the energy storage charge and discharge depth and efficiency parameters. The maximum and minimum values ​​of the energy storage capacity can be determined according to the energy storage charge and discharge depth, and the efficiency parameter refers to the ratio of energy storage output to energy storage capacity.

[0135] S10: Start calculation according to the time series.

[0136] According to the curve of the output power of the power generation equipment corresponding to the installed capacity changing over time, the green electricity consumption rate and new energy utilization rate of different installed capacities are calculated respectively.

[0137] S11: Verify whether the green electricity consumption rate, new energy utilization rate, etc. meet the constraints. If so, execute step S12; if not, exclude the installed capacity.

[0138] S12: Conduct financial evaluation and find the optimal solution.

[0139] When it is determined that there are multiple installed capacities that meet the constraints, the optimal installed capacity is selected to equip the power generation equipment based on economic calculations and taking environmental efficiency into consideration.

[0140] Based on the above embodiments, the present application also provides a method for calculating the installed capacity of a source-grid-load-storage integrated project. Figure 5 The above is a schematic diagram of an installed capacity estimation device for a source-grid-load-storage integrated project provided in an embodiment of the present application, wherein the device 500 includes an acquisition unit 501, a prediction unit 502, a determination unit 503, and a fitting unit 504:

[0141] The acquisition unit is used to acquire the required load of the project, the constraint conditions of the project and the wind and solar output characteristics of the target area, the project is a source-grid-load-storage integrated mode project, the target area is an area where the project is to be implemented, and the wind and solar output characteristics are used to identify the power generation law of wind and photovoltaic equipment;

[0142] The prediction unit is used to predict the scale interval according to the demand load through expert experience, and the scale interval is used to identify the installed capacity range of wind power and photovoltaic equipment;

[0143] The determining unit is used to determine N scales in the scale interval according to a preset step size;

[0144] The fitting unit is used to fit the N scales with the wind and solar power output characteristics respectively, to obtain N wind and solar power output timing curves corresponding to the N scales one by one, each of the N wind and solar power output timing curves being used to identify the change of the actual output power of the wind and photovoltaic power generation equipment over time at the corresponding scale;

[0145] The determination unit is further used to perform calculations according to the N wind and solar power output timing curves respectively to determine the scale that satisfies the constraint condition.

[0146] Therefore, this technical solution can quickly determine the installed capacity range based on the needs of different projects and on the basis of satisfying the power and electricity balance, and then calculate the installed capacity that meets the project requirements within this range according to the specific project requirements, so as to equip the target area with corresponding power generation equipment according to the calculated installed capacity, laying the foundation for resource optimization of the project.

[0147] In a possible implementation manner, the determining unit is further configured to:

[0148] Determining whether a boundary value of the scale interval satisfies a first constraint condition according to the plant area loss and the equipment simultaneity rate of the target area, where the first constraint condition is one or more of the constraint conditions;

[0149] If the boundary value does not satisfy the first constraint condition, the scale interval is reduced.

[0150] Therefore, combined with some requirements of the source-grid-load-storage integration project, a preliminary judgment can be made on the predicted scale range, thereby limiting the range of installed capacity, quickly determining a more appropriate installed capacity range, and improving the work efficiency of installed capacity estimation.

[0151] In a possible implementation, the wind and solar power output characteristics are obtained in the following manner:

[0152] Acquiring historical meteorological data of the target area;

[0153] The wind and solar power output characteristics are obtained by performing simulation based on the geographic information of the target area and the historical meteorological data.

[0154] Therefore, simulating the wind and solar power output characteristics of the target area through simulation experiments is more realistic and scientific, thus providing reliable data support for the planning and operation of source-grid-load-storage integrated projects.

[0155] In a possible implementation, the constraint conditions include green electricity consumption capacity and new energy utilization rate constraint conditions, and the determination unit is further used to:

[0156] Calculate the N wind and solar power output time series curves respectively to obtain corresponding N groups of evaluation results, each of the N groups of evaluation results including green power consumption capacity and new energy utilization rate indicators;

[0157] If M groups of evaluation results among the N groups of evaluation results are within the constraint conditions, the scales satisfying the constraint conditions are determined to be the scales corresponding to the M groups of evaluation results respectively.

[0158] Therefore, according to the specific needs of different projects, the corresponding data can be selected for calculation through the predicted wind and solar output timing curve under the corresponding scale, which effectively improves the calculation efficiency.

[0159] In a possible implementation manner, the M is greater than 1, and the determining unit is further configured to:

[0160] The scales corresponding to the M groups of evaluation results are evaluated through economic calculations to determine the optimal scale.

[0161] If multiple installed capacities meet the project requirements, the cost of new energy power generation, energy storage cost, penalty cost for abandoned solar power, etc. can be comprehensively considered to balance economic and environmental benefits.

[0162] In a possible implementation, the device further includes a dynamic adjustment unit:

[0163] The dynamic adjustment unit is used to obtain the load demand time series curve of the source-grid-load-storage integration project;

[0164] Based on the temporal and spatial matching degree between the optimal-scale wind and solar power output timing curve and the load demand timing curve, each element of the source-grid-load-storage integration project is dynamically adjusted.

[0165] Therefore, by matching and analyzing the load demand timing curve with the wind and solar output timing curve, it is possible to identify the imbalance between supply and demand in different time periods, and dynamically adjust the various elements of the source-grid-load-storage integration project through strategies to optimize the system's operating efficiency.

[0166] Based on the above embodiments, an embodiment of the present application provides a computer device, including:

[0167] Memory for storing computer programs;

[0168] A processor is used to implement the steps of the method for estimating the installed capacity of the above-mentioned source-grid-load-storage integrated project when executing the computer program.

[0169] Based on the above embodiments, the embodiments of the present application further provide a computer-readable medium, on which a computer program is stored, and when the computer program is processed and executed, the steps of the installed capacity estimation method for the above-mentioned source-grid-load-storage integrated project are implemented.

[0170] Based on the above embodiments, an embodiment of the present application also provides a computer program product including a computer program, which, when running on a computer device, enables the computer device to execute the steps of the installed capacity estimation method of the above-mentioned source-grid-load-storage integrated project.

[0171] It should be noted that the various embodiments in this specification are described in a progressive manner, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments, and the same or similar parts between the various embodiments can be referred to each other. For the system or device disclosed in the embodiment, since it corresponds to the method disclosed in the embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant parts can be referred to the method part description.

[0172] The above description of the disclosed embodiments enables those skilled in the art to implement or use the present application. Various modifications to these embodiments will be apparent to those skilled in the art, and the general principles defined herein may be implemented in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the present application. Therefore, the present application will not be limited to the embodiments shown herein, but will conform to the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.

Claims

1. A method for estimating installed capacity of a source-grid-load-storage integrated project, characterized in that: The method comprises: Obtaining the required load of the project, the constraints of the project, and the wind and solar output characteristics of the target area, wherein the project is a source-grid-load-storage integrated project, the target area is an area where the project is to be implemented, and the wind and solar output characteristics are used to identify the power generation rules of wind and photovoltaic equipment; According to the demand load, a scale interval is predicted through expert experience, and the scale interval is used to identify the installed capacity range of wind power and photovoltaic equipment; According to a preset step length, N scales are determined in the scale interval; Fitting the N scales with the wind and solar power output characteristics respectively to obtain N wind and solar power output timing curves corresponding to the N scales one by one, wherein each of the N wind and solar power output timing curves is used to identify the change of the actual output power of the wind and photovoltaic power generation equipment over time at the corresponding scale; Calculations are performed respectively according to the N wind and solar power output timing curves to determine a scale that satisfies the constraint conditions.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that After predicting the scale range based on the demand load through expert experience, the method further includes: Determining whether a boundary value of the scale interval satisfies a first constraint condition according to the plant area loss and the equipment simultaneity rate of the target area, where the first constraint condition is one or more of the constraint conditions; If the boundary value does not satisfy the first constraint condition, the scale interval is reduced.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The wind and solar power output characteristics are obtained by the following method: Acquiring historical meteorological data of the target area; The wind and solar power output characteristics are obtained by performing simulation based on the geographic information of the target area and the historical meteorological data.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The constraints include green power consumption capacity and new energy utilization rate constraints. The calculations are performed according to the N wind and solar power output time series curves to determine the scale that meets the constraints. Calculate the N wind and solar power output time series curves respectively to obtain corresponding N groups of evaluation results, each of the N groups of evaluation results including green power consumption capacity and new energy utilization rate indicators; If M groups of evaluation results among the N groups of evaluation results are within the constraint conditions, the scales satisfying the constraint conditions are determined to be the scales corresponding to the M groups of evaluation results respectively.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that The M is greater than 1, and the method further comprises: The scales corresponding to the M groups of evaluation results are evaluated through economic calculations to determine the optimal scale.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The method further comprises: Obtaining a load demand time series curve of the source-grid-load-storage integration project; Based on the temporal and spatial matching degree between the optimal-scale wind and solar power output timing curve and the load demand timing curve, each element of the source-grid-load-storage integration project is dynamically adjusted.

7. A device for estimating installed capacity of a source-grid-load-storage integrated project, characterized in that: The device comprises an acquisition unit, a prediction unit, a determination unit and a fitting unit: The acquisition unit is used to acquire the required load of the project, the constraint conditions of the project and the wind and solar output characteristics of the target area, the project is a source-grid-load-storage integrated mode project, the target area is an area where the project is to be implemented, and the wind and solar output characteristics are used to identify the power generation law of wind and photovoltaic equipment; The prediction unit is used to predict the scale interval according to the demand load through expert experience, and the scale interval is used to identify the installed capacity range of wind power and photovoltaic equipment; The determining unit is used to determine N scales in the scale interval according to a preset step size; The fitting unit is used to fit the N scales with the wind and solar power output characteristics respectively, to obtain N wind and solar power output timing curves corresponding to the N scales one by one, each of the N wind and solar power output timing curves being used to identify the change of the actual output power of the wind and photovoltaic power generation equipment over time at the corresponding scale; The determination unit is further used to perform calculations according to the N wind and solar power output timing curves respectively to determine the scale that satisfies the constraint condition.

8. A computer device, characterized in that: The computer device comprises a processor and a memory: The memory is used to store computer programs; The processor is configured to execute the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6 according to the computer program.

9. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium is used to store a computer program, and the computer program, when executed by a computer device, implements the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

10. A computer program product comprising a computer program, characterized in that When the method is executed on a computer device, the computer device is enabled to execute the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

Images