Quantitative model-based shipping risk assessment method and system

Abstract

The invention discloses a shipping risk assessment method and system based on a quantitative model, and belongs to the technical field of electric digital data processing, and the method comprises the following steps: S1, obtaining an aerodynamic influence parameter and a hydrodynamic influence parameter, carrying out the analysis to obtain a shipping risk driving value, and carrying out the matching to obtain a steamship electric power stability demand value; s2, obtaining a steamship electric power stable operation value; s3, obtaining a steamship electric power regulation judgment result, if the steamship electric power regulation judgment result is that electric power is qualified, not executing steamship electric power stability initial regulation, and otherwise, executing S4; s4, initial adjustment of steamship electric power stability is carried out; s5, a key node operation judgment result is obtained, if the key node operation judgment result is stable operation, generator adjustment is not carried out, and otherwise, S6 is executed; s6, generator adjustment is carried out, generator operation execution parameters are obtained, and the problem that in the prior art, due to interference of severe convection weather on a ship power system, the shipping risk is increased is solved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of electronic digital data processing, and in particular to a shipping risk assessment method and system based on a quantitative model. Background Art

[0002] With the rapid development of the shipping industry, the safe navigation of ships in complex sea conditions has become a focus of attention. The existing shipping risk assessment methods mainly evaluate shipping risks by obtaining and analyzing meteorological and hydrological information and traffic information to analyze the difficulty of navigation.

[0003] For example, the invention patent with announcement number: CN115017246B announces a holographic navigation scene map system and construction method for intelligent navigation of ships, including: obtaining full-factor information of the navigation scene in real time or near real time through ubiquitous sensing means, obtaining meteorological and hydrological information, traffic information, etc. related to navigation in geographic space, and associating scene element information through semantic position, thereby realizing the function of providing multi-dimensional dynamic services adaptively for ship navigation tasks.

[0004] For example, the invention patent announcement with announcement number: CN117171289B discloses a method for generating structured navigation restriction data, including: creating a navigation restriction data model; establishing an aviation entity data model; creating an aviation entity data table; creating a navigation restriction data table; generating aviation entity data; and generating navigation restriction data.

[0005] However, in the process of implementing the technical solution of the invention in the embodiments of the present application, the present application found that the above technology has at least the following technical problems: The shipping risk assessment method in the prior art focuses on judging the interference of the meteorological environment on the difficulty of navigation during the ship's voyage through meteorological and hydrological information and traffic information, but ignores the interference of sudden meteorological conditions on the stability of the power system during the ship's voyage. Under severe convective weather, the voltage of the ship's power grid will be unstable due to the electromagnetic interference of the surrounding environment, and in this environment, in order to maintain stability, the ship will overload equipment such as gyro stabilizers. Therefore, there is a problem of increased shipping risk due to the interference of severe convective weather on the ship's power system. Summary of the invention

[0006] The embodiments of the present application provide a shipping risk assessment method and system based on a quantitative model, thereby solving the problem in the prior art of increased shipping risk due to interference of severe convective weather on the ship's power system, achieving optimal adjustment of the ship's power system under severe convective weather, and reducing the risk of ship operation.

[0007] The embodiment of the present application provides a shipping risk assessment method based on a quantitative model, comprising the following steps: S1, obtaining aerodynamic influence parameters and analyzing to obtain aerodynamic influence fluctuation values, obtaining hydrodynamic influence parameters and analyzing to obtain hydrodynamic influence fluctuation values, and inputting both into a preset quantitative model, analyzing to obtain a shipping risk driving value, thereby matching to obtain a ship power stability demand value; S2, obtaining a ship power operation stability parameter, analyzing to obtain a ship power stability operation value; S3, based on the ship power stability demand value and the ship power stability operation value analysis, obtaining a ship power regulation determination result, if the ship power regulation determination result is that the power is qualified, then The initial adjustment of the ship's power stability will not be performed, otherwise S4 will be executed; S4, the ship's remaining power generation and the power configuration parameters of each edge power node are obtained, and the distribution power of each edge power node is analyzed to obtain the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability; S5, the operation stability parameters of the key nodes after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability are obtained, and the operation judgment results of the key nodes are analyzed to obtain the operation stability of the key nodes. If the operation judgment result of the key node is stable operation, the generator adjustment will not be performed, otherwise S6 will be executed; S6, the ship's power stability operation value and the key node operation balance value after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability are obtained, and the generator is adjusted to obtain the generator operation execution parameters.

[0008] The embodiment of the present application provides a shipping risk assessment system based on a quantitative model, including: a power demand analysis module, a power stable operation analysis module, a stability judgment module, an initial stability adjustment module, a stability adjustment result judgment module and a generator adjustment module; wherein the power demand analysis module is used to obtain aerodynamic influence parameters to analyze and obtain aerodynamic influence fluctuation values, obtain hydrodynamic influence parameters to analyze and obtain hydrodynamic influence fluctuation values, and both are input into a preset quantitative model to analyze and obtain a shipping risk driving value, thereby matching and obtaining a ship power stability demand value; the power stable operation analysis module is used to obtain a ship power operation stability parameter, and analyze and obtain a ship power stability operation value; the stability judgment module is used to analyze the ship power stability demand value and the ship power stability operation value to obtain a ship power regulation judgment value. As a result, if the ship's power regulation judgment result is that the power is qualified, the ship's power stability initial adjustment will not be executed, otherwise the initial stability adjustment module will be executed; the initial stability adjustment module is used to obtain the ship's surplus power generation and the power configuration parameters of each edge power node, thereby analyzing and obtaining the allocated power of each edge power node for initial adjustment of the ship's power stability; the stability adjustment result judgment module is used to obtain the operating stability parameters of the key nodes after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability, and analyze the key node operation judgment results. If the key node operation judgment result is that the operation is stable, the generator adjustment will not be performed, otherwise the generator adjustment module will be executed; the generator adjustment module is used to obtain the ship's power stability operation value and the key node operation balance value after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability, thereby adjusting the generator and obtaining the generator operation execution parameters.

[0009] One or more technical solutions provided in the embodiments of the present application have at least the following technical effects or advantages: 1. The shipping risk assessment method based on the quantitative model provided by the present invention obtains the aerodynamic impact fluctuation value by analyzing the aerodynamic impact parameter, obtains the hydrodynamic impact fluctuation value by analyzing the hydrodynamic impact parameter, and inputs both into the preset quantitative model, analyzes and obtains the shipping risk driving value, thereby matching the ship's power stability demand value, and then performs the ship's power stability adjustment, thereby achieving the optimal adjustment of the ship's power system under severe convective weather, reducing the risk of ship operation, and effectively solving the problem of increased shipping risk due to the interference of severe convective weather on the ship's power system in the prior art, and achieving stable operation of the ship's power system.

[0010] 2. The present invention obtains the ship's power operation stability parameters, analyzes and obtains the ship's power stability operation value, and compares the ship's power stability demand value with the ship's power stability operation value to obtain the ship's power regulation judgment result, thereby obtaining the ship's power generation surplus power and the power configuration parameters of each edge power node, and thus analyzes and obtains the distributed power of each edge power node to perform initial adjustment of the ship's power stability, thereby achieving the stability and reliability of the ship's power system in complex sea conditions and improving the overall safety of the ship.

[0011] 3. By obtaining the key node operating stability parameters after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability, analyzing the key node operation judgment results, and realizing the adjustment of the generator's operating speed, while analyzing and adjusting the initial excitation current of the generator, the precise adjustment of the ship's power is realized, ensuring the continuous and stable power supply of the ship in complex sea conditions. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0012] Figure 1 A flow chart of a shipping risk assessment method based on a quantitative model provided in an embodiment of the present application; Figure 2 A specific flow chart of the shipping risk assessment method based on the quantitative model provided in the embodiment of the present application; Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the structure of a shipping risk assessment system based on a quantitative model provided in an embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0013] The embodiments of the present application provide a shipping risk assessment method and system based on a quantitative model, thereby solving the problem in the prior art of increased shipping risk due to interference of severe convective weather on the ship's power system, achieving optimal adjustment of the ship's power system under severe convective weather, and reducing the risk of ship operation.

[0014] In order to better understand the above technical solution, the above technical solution will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific implementation methods.

[0015] like Figure 1 As shown, it is a flow chart of a shipping risk assessment method based on a quantitative model provided in an embodiment of the present application. The method is applied to a shipping risk assessment system based on a quantitative model. The method includes the following steps: S1, obtaining aerodynamic influence parameters and analyzing to obtain aerodynamic influence fluctuation values, obtaining hydrodynamic influence parameters and analyzing to obtain hydrodynamic influence fluctuation values, and inputting both into a preset quantitative model, analyzing to obtain a shipping risk driving value, thereby matching to obtain a ship power stability demand value; S2, obtaining a ship power operation stability parameter, analyzing to obtain a ship power stability operation value; S3, based on the analysis of the ship power stability demand value and the ship power stability operation value, obtaining a ship power regulation judgment result, if the ship If the power regulation judgment result is that the power is qualified, the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability will not be performed, otherwise S4 will be executed; S4, obtain the ship's remaining power generation and the power configuration parameters of each edge power node, thereby analyzing and obtaining the allocated power of each edge power node for initial adjustment of the ship's power stability; S5, obtain the operating stability parameters of the key nodes after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability, analyze and obtain the key node operation judgment result, if the key node operation judgment result is stable operation, the generator adjustment will not be performed, otherwise S6 will be executed; S6, obtain the ship's power stability operation value and the key node operation balance value after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability, thereby adjusting the generator and obtaining the generator operation execution parameters.

[0016] In this embodiment, if Figure 2 The specific flow chart of the shipping risk assessment method based on the quantitative model provided by the embodiment of the present application is shown. By obtaining the aerodynamic influence parameters and the hydrodynamic influence parameters, the aerodynamic influence fluctuation value and the hydrodynamic influence fluctuation value are calculated respectively, and these values ​​are input into the quantitative model to calculate the shipping risk driving value, thereby matching the ship power stability demand value, and obtaining the ship power operation stability parameter to calculate the ship power stable operation value. By comparing the stable demand value and the stable operation value, the ship power regulation judgment result is obtained. If the ship power regulation judgment result is qualified, the ship power stability initial adjustment is not performed, and the process ends. If the ship power regulation judgment result is unqualified, the ship power stability initial adjustment is performed, and the key node operation judgment result is obtained. If the key node operation judgment result is stable operation, the generator adjustment is not performed, and the process ends. If the key node operation judgment result is unstable operation, the generator adjustment is performed, and the process ends.

[0017] The aerodynamic influence parameters are obtained by analysis to obtain the aerodynamic influence fluctuation value. The specific method is as follows: the aerodynamic influence parameters within a first preset time period are obtained, and the aerodynamic influence parameters include the maximum wind speed, the wind speed change rate, the maximum wind pressure and the hull roll angle amplitude; the reference set of sea breeze change influence preset in the database is obtained, and compared with the aerodynamic influence parameters to obtain the comparison result, and the corresponding weighting factor is introduced to quantify the comparison result to obtain the aerodynamic influence fluctuation value; the reference set of sea breeze change influence includes the wind speed reference value, the wind speed change rate reference value, the wind pressure reference value and the hull roll angle amplitude reference value.

[0018] The aerodynamic fluctuation value is obtained by: ; In the formula, represents the fluctuation value of aerodynamic influence, Indicates the maximum wind speed, Indicates the wind speed reference value, represents the wind speed change rate, Indicates the reference value of wind speed change rate, Indicates the maximum wind pressure, Indicates the wind pressure reference value, represents the hull roll angle amplitude, Indicates the reference value of the ship's roll angle amplitude, represents the wind speed weighting factor, represents the wind speed change rate weighting factor, represents the wind pressure weighting factor, represents the weighting factor of the ship roll angle amplitude.

[0019] It should be noted that the maximum wind speed is obtained by measuring it using the built-in anemometer in the weather station on the ship. The wind speed change rate refers to the speed of change of the wind speed per unit time. The wind speed can be measured by the built-in anemometer on the ship, and the wind speed change rate can be obtained based on the wind speed. The maximum wind pressure is obtained by detecting it using the built-in wind pressure sensor on the ship, where the wind pressure sensor is an air pressure sensor. The roll angle amplitude of the hull can be measured in real time by the built-in attitude sensor (such as a gyroscope) of the ship, and then the roll angle amplitude is obtained by analysis.

[0020] It should also be noted that the aerodynamic influence fluctuation value is obtained by analyzing the aerodynamic influence parameters, taking into account the mutual influence relationship between these parameters. For example, when the wind speed increases rapidly in a short period of time, the wind speed change rate will also increase accordingly, causing the ship to be subjected to greater lateral force, increasing the roll amplitude of the ship. The occurrence of maximum wind speed usually leads to the generation of maximum wind pressure. The magnitude of wind pressure directly affects the lateral force on the ship, thereby affecting the stability and navigation safety of the ship. The greater the wind speed change rate, the more drastic the change in wind pressure. Rapidly changing wind pressure will cause the ship to be subjected to unstable lateral force, increase the roll and pitch amplitude of the ship, and larger wind pressure will cause the ship to be subjected to greater lateral force, thereby increasing the roll angle amplitude of the hull.

[0021] The wind speed weighting factor, wind speed change rate weighting factor, wind pressure weighting factor and hull roll angle amplitude weighting factor can be obtained from the database. For example, the wind speed weighting factor can be obtained by obtaining the historical wind speed stored in the database, and the wind speed weighting factor corresponding to the historical wind speed, thereby constructing a wind speed mapping set, wherein there is a one-to-one or many-to-one correspondence in the mapping set. The wind speed weighting factor can be obtained by inputting the required wind speed data into the wind speed mapping set. The other weighting factors such as the wind speed change rate weighting factor, the wind pressure weighting factor and the hull roll angle amplitude weighting factor are obtained in the same way as the wind speed weighting factor, and can also be obtained through the mapping set, wherein the wind speed change rate weighting factor corresponds to the wind speed change rate mapping set, the wind pressure weighting factor corresponds to the wind pressure mapping set, and the hull roll angle amplitude weighting factor corresponds to the hull roll angle amplitude mapping set.

[0022] The hydrodynamic influence parameters are obtained by analysis to obtain the hydrodynamic influence fluctuation value. The specific method is as follows: the hydrodynamic influence parameters within the first preset time period are obtained, and the hydrodynamic influence parameters include the maximum wave height, the wave height change rate, the maximum current speed and the current speed change rate; the reference set of sea surface change influence preset in the database is obtained, and compared and analyzed with the hydrodynamic influence parameters respectively to obtain the comparison results, and the corresponding weighting factors are introduced to quantify the comparison results to obtain the hydrodynamic influence fluctuation value; the reference set of sea surface change influence includes the wave height reference value, the wave height change rate reference value, the current speed reference value and the current speed change rate reference value.

[0023] It should be noted that the maximum wave height and the wave height change rate are obtained by measuring them through wave height detection tools such as wave height meters equipped on ships. The wave height change rate indicates the speed of change of wave height per unit time. The maximum current speed and the current speed change rate are obtained by detecting them through the built-in flow velocity sensor device on the ship, wherein the flow velocity sensor device is an acoustic Doppler current meter. The current speed change rate indicates the speed of change of the current speed per unit time.

[0024] The hydrodynamic influence fluctuation value is obtained by analyzing the hydrodynamic influence parameters, taking into account the mutual influence relationship between these parameters. For example, a larger wave height change rate will cause the wave height to reach the peak value quickly, thereby increasing the possibility of the maximum wave height. The ocean current velocity change rate reflects the rate of change of the ocean current velocity over time. A larger ocean current velocity change rate will cause the ocean current velocity to reach the peak value quickly, thereby increasing the maximum value of the ocean current velocity. There is an interaction between the maximum wave height and the maximum ocean current velocity. A larger ocean current velocity can change the propagation path and energy distribution of the wave, thereby affecting the formation and development of the wave height. A larger ocean current velocity will cause the breaking of waves and energy dissipation, thereby affecting the formation of the maximum wave height. At the same time, a larger wave height will also have a feedback effect on the ocean current velocity. The breaking and energy dissipation of waves will change the dynamic characteristics of the ocean current and affect the distribution and change of the ocean current velocity. Rapidly changing ocean current velocity will change the propagation path and energy distribution of the wave, thereby affecting the rate of change of the wave height. Rapidly changing ocean current velocity will cause wave instability, aggravate the change of wave height, and thus increase the wave height change rate.

[0025] The hydrodynamic influence fluctuation value is obtained by: ; In the formula, represents the fluctuation value of the hydrodynamic influence, Indicates the maximum wave height, Indicates the reference value of the wave height. represents the rate of change of wave height, Indicates the reference value of wave height change rate. represents the maximum current speed, represents the reference value of ocean current speed, represents the rate of change of ocean current velocity, Indicates the reference value of the rate of change of ocean current velocity, represents the wave height weighting factor, represents the weighting factor of wave height change rate, represents the current velocity weighting factor, Represents the weighting factor of the ocean current velocity change rate.

[0026] The wave height weighting factor, wave height change rate weighting factor, current speed weighting factor and current speed change rate weighting factor can be obtained from the database. For example, the wave height weighting factor can be obtained by obtaining the historical wave heights stored in the database, and the wave height weighting factors corresponding to the historical wave heights, thereby constructing a wave height mapping set, wherein there is a one-to-one or many-to-one correspondence in the mapping set. The wave height weighting factor can be obtained by inputting the wave height data to be used into the wave height mapping set. The other weighting factors such as the wave height change rate weighting factor, the current speed weighting factor and the current speed change rate weighting factor are obtained in the same way as the wave height weighting factor, and can also be obtained through the mapping set, wherein the wave height change rate weighting factor corresponds to the wave height change rate mapping set, the current speed weighting factor corresponds to the current speed mapping set, and the current speed change rate weighting factor corresponds to the current speed change rate mapping set.

[0027] Through quantitative models, aerodynamic and hydrodynamic parameters are integrated into shipping risk driving values, and a dynamic mapping of environmental disturbances and electricity demand is established to achieve closed-loop management from meteorological risks to power regulation. By determining the eligibility of electricity, different adjustment levels (initial adjustment and generator adjustment) are triggered to avoid excessive intervention and improve system response efficiency.

[0028] Furthermore, a shipping risk driving value is obtained, thereby matching the ship power stability demand value, and the specific method is: obtain a quantitative model preset in the database; based on the aerodynamic influence fluctuation value and the hydrodynamic influence fluctuation value as input variables of the quantitative model, input them into the quantitative model, and output the shipping risk driving value after being processed by the quantitative model; obtain each shipping risk driving value interval preset in the database and the reference ship power stability demand value corresponding to each shipping risk driving value interval, and compare them with the shipping risk driving value; if the shipping risk driving value is within a preset shipping risk driving value interval, then obtain the reference ship power stability demand value corresponding to the interval as the ship power stability demand value.

[0029] In this embodiment, it should be noted that the aerodynamic impact fluctuation value and the hydrodynamic impact fluctuation value are input into a preset quantitative model to analyze and obtain the shipping risk driving value, wherein the expression of the quantitative model is: ; In the formula, represents the shipping risk driving value, represents the aerodynamic fluctuation value, represents the fluctuation value of the hydrodynamic influence, represents the environmental impact fluctuation weighting factor, Represents the sea level fluctuation weighting factor.

[0030] Both the environmental impact fluctuation weighting factor and the sea level change fluctuation weighting factor can be obtained in the database. For example, the environmental impact fluctuation weighting factor can be obtained by obtaining the historical environmental impact fluctuations stored in the database, and the environmental impact fluctuation weighting factors corresponding to the historical environmental impact fluctuations, thereby constructing an environmental impact fluctuation mapping set, wherein there is a one-to-one or many-to-one correspondence in the mapping set. The environmental impact fluctuation weighting factor can be obtained by inputting the environmental impact fluctuation data to be used into the environmental impact fluctuation mapping set. The sea level change fluctuation weighting factor is obtained in the same way as the environmental impact fluctuation weighting factor, and can also be obtained through the mapping set, wherein the sea level change fluctuation weighting factor corresponds to the sea level change fluctuation mapping set.

[0031] Matching power demand based on risk-driven value intervals solves the problem that traditional static thresholds cannot adapt to sudden wind and waves. By introducing quantitative models and database preset parameters, the accuracy and pertinence of risk assessment are enhanced. By associating shipping risk-driven values ​​with power stability demand values, the regulation of ship power systems is made more adaptable, improving the power system's ability to cope with different risk scenarios, helping to more accurately match power stability demand, and improving the accuracy of ship shipping risk assessment.

[0032] Furthermore, the ship's power operation stability parameters are obtained, and the ship's power operation stability value is obtained by analysis. The specific method is: obtain the ship's power operation stability parameters, which include generator speed fluctuation rate, battery minimum remaining capacity, generator coolant average temperature and cabin temperature fluctuation rate; obtain the ship's power operation stability reference set preset in the database, which includes the speed fluctuation rate allowable value, battery minimum remaining capacity reference value, coolant temperature reference value and temperature fluctuation rate allowable value; based on the generator speed fluctuation rate, the generator coolant average temperature and the cabin temperature fluctuation rate, the speed fluctuation rate allowable value, the coolant temperature reference value and the temperature fluctuation rate allowable value are compared and analyzed respectively to obtain the hull stability comparison result and introduce the corresponding weighting factor to obtain the hull stability quantification value; based on the battery minimum remaining capacity and the battery minimum remaining capacity reference value, the battery capacity comparison analysis result is obtained, and then the battery minimum remaining capacity weighting factor is introduced for correction to obtain the correction result, and the correction result is coupled with the hull stability quantification value to obtain the ship's power operation stability value.

[0033] In this embodiment, the generator speed fluctuation rate is obtained by measuring it through a speed detection tool built into the ship, wherein the speed detection tool is a crankshaft sensor. The minimum remaining capacity of the battery is obtained by adjusting the ship's backend. The average temperature of the generator coolant is obtained by measuring it through a temperature measuring device built into the ship, such as a temperature sensor. The cabin temperature fluctuation rate is obtained by monitoring the cabin temperature in real time using a temperature sensor installed in the cabin of the ship. The cabin temperature fluctuation rate refers to the temperature fluctuation rate of the cabin in a unit of time.

[0034] By analyzing the stable operation parameters of the ship's power, the stable operation value of the ship's power is obtained, taking into account the mutual influence relationship between these parameters, for example: the generator speed fluctuation rate will affect the charging efficiency and stability of the battery. Large speed fluctuations will lead to unstable charging current, affecting the remaining capacity and life of the battery. Changes in the minimum remaining capacity of the battery will also affect the load of the generator, and then affect the speed fluctuation rate of the generator. The speed fluctuation rate of the generator will affect the flow and heat dissipation efficiency of the coolant. Higher speed fluctuations will cause the coolant temperature to rise, and high temperature will cause the generator efficiency to decrease, further affecting the stability of the speed. Lower minimum remaining capacity of the battery will cause the generator to require higher output power, increase the coolant temperature, and high temperature will cause the battery capacity to decay rapidly. Large cabin temperature fluctuations may cause the coolant temperature to rise, affecting the performance of the generator. Excessive coolant temperature will cause the cooling effect in the cabin to decrease, which will lead to an increase in cabin temperature.

[0035] The specific method to obtain the stable operation value of ship power is as follows: ; ; In the formula, Indicates the stable operation value of the ship's power. Indicates the minimum remaining battery capacity. Indicates the reference value of the minimum remaining capacity of the battery. Indicates the generator speed fluctuation rate, Indicates the allowable value of speed fluctuation rate. Indicates the average temperature of the generator coolant, represents the natural constant term, Indicates the coolant temperature reference value, represents the cabin temperature fluctuation rate, Indicates the allowable value of temperature fluctuation rate, Represents the quantitative value of hull stability, represents the quantitative weighting factor of hull stability, Represents the weighting factor of the minimum remaining capacity of the battery, represents the generator speed fluctuation weighting factor, represents the weighting factor of the average temperature of the generator coolant, Represents the weighting factor of cabin temperature fluctuation rate.

[0036] It should be noted that It represents the natural constant term (which is a very small value). By adding the natural constant term, the normal processing of data can be guaranteed, avoiding the problem of abnormal data processing caused by the coolant temperature being zero.

[0037] The battery minimum remaining capacity weighting factor, generator speed fluctuation weighting factor, generator coolant average temperature weighting factor, cabin temperature fluctuation weighting factor and hull stability quantitative weighting factor can be obtained from the database. For example, the battery minimum remaining capacity weighting factor can be obtained by obtaining the historical battery minimum remaining capacity stored in the database, and the battery minimum remaining capacity weighting factor corresponding to the historical battery minimum remaining capacity, thereby constructing a battery minimum remaining capacity mapping set, wherein there is a one-to-one or many-to-one correspondence in the mapping set. By inputting the battery minimum remaining capacity data to be used into the battery minimum remaining capacity mapping set The battery minimum remaining capacity weighting factor can be obtained. Other weighting factors such as the generator speed fluctuation weighting factor, the hull stability quantification weighting factor, the generator coolant average temperature weighting factor and the cabin temperature fluctuation weighting factor are obtained in the same way as the battery minimum remaining capacity weighting factor, and can also be obtained through mapping sets. Among them, the generator speed fluctuation weighting factor corresponds to the generator speed fluctuation mapping set, the generator coolant average temperature weighting factor corresponds to the generator coolant average temperature mapping set, the cabin temperature fluctuation weighting factor corresponds to the cabin temperature fluctuation mapping set, and the hull stability quantification weighting factor corresponds to the hull stability quantification mapping set.

[0038] Comprehensive consideration of multi-dimensional parameters helps to fully and meticulously understand the real-time operating status of the ship's power system, provide detailed data support for subsequent power regulation decisions, and ensure the scientificity and effectiveness of power system regulation. By analyzing the stable operation value of the ship's power, the power supply capacity of the ship's power system can be accurately quantified, providing guarantees for the smooth operation of the entire ship's power system, avoiding the impact of inaccurate analysis of the power supply capacity and power supply stability of the power system on the normal operation of the ship's electrical equipment, and reducing the risk of ship shipping.

[0039] Furthermore, based on the analysis of the ship's power stability demand value and the ship's power stability operation value, the ship's power regulation judgment result is obtained, and the specific method is: based on the comparison of the ship's power stability demand value and the ship's power stability operation value, the ship's power regulation judgment result is obtained; if the ship's power stability demand value is above the ship's power stability operation value, the ship's power regulation judgment result is that the power is unqualified; if the ship's power stability demand value is less than the ship's power stability operation value, the ship's power regulation judgment result is that the power is qualified.

[0040] In this embodiment, based on the comparison between the ship's power stability demand value and the ship's power stability operation value, the ship's power regulation judgment result can accurately determine whether the power is qualified, avoiding unnecessary adjustments and improving the efficiency and accuracy of power system regulation. By setting clear judgment criteria, it is helpful to quickly respond to abnormal conditions of the power system and reduce the risk of ship operation caused by unstable power system.

[0041] Furthermore, the surplus power of the ship's power generation and the power configuration parameters of each edge power node are obtained, and the allocated power of each edge power node is analyzed to perform initial adjustment of the ship's power stability. The specific method is: the ship's power generation power and the total operating power of key nodes are obtained, and the difference processing is performed to obtain the surplus power of the ship's power generation; the power configuration parameters of each edge power node are obtained, and the power configuration parameters of each edge power node include the power utilization rate, minimum operating power and ideal operating power of each edge power node; based on the power utilization rate of each edge power node, and matched with the database, the power allocation coefficient of each edge power node is obtained; based on the surplus power of the ship's power generation and the power allocation coefficient, minimum operating power and ideal operating power of each edge power node, a coupling analysis is performed to obtain the allocated power of each edge power node. ; The allocated power of each edge power node, the specific analysis steps are: compare and analyze the minimum operating power of each edge power node with the ideal operating power to obtain the power comparison result, and perform multiplicative coupling based on the surplus power of the ship power generation, the power comparison result and the power allocation coefficient to obtain the allocated power of each edge power node; based on the allocated power of each edge power node and compared with the minimum operating power corresponding to the edge power node, if there is an edge power node whose allocated power is greater than the minimum operating power, the edge power node operates according to the allocated power and adjusts the carrier frequency of each edge power node, otherwise it operates according to the minimum operating power of the edge power node and does not perform carrier frequency adjustment; edge power nodes include intermittently operating edge power nodes and periodically operating edge power nodes.

[0042] In this embodiment, based on the power utilization of each edge power node and matching with the database, the power allocation coefficient of each edge power node is obtained. The specific method is: obtain the preset power utilization intervals in the database and the reference power allocation coefficient corresponding to each power utilization interval, and compare them with the power utilization of each edge power node. If there is an edge power node whose power utilization is within a certain power utilization interval, the reference power allocation coefficient corresponding to the interval is obtained as the power allocation coefficient of the edge power node.

[0043] The allocated power of each edge power node is obtained by: ; In the formula, represents the allocated power of the ith edge power node, i represents the number of the edge power node, , represents the total number of edge power nodes, Indicates the remaining power of the ship. represents the minimum operating power of the ith edge power node, represents the ideal operating power of the ith edge power node, represents the power allocation coefficient of the i-th edge power node.

[0044] The power utilization rate of each edge power node is obtained by adjusting the ship power monitoring and control center of the ship's backend management system. The minimum operating power and ideal operating power of each edge power node are obtained by querying the factory log corresponding to each edge power node.

[0045] By calculating and distributing the surplus power of power generation, the power distribution of edge power nodes is obtained to achieve reasonable distribution of surplus power of power generation, optimize the utilization efficiency of power resources, and enhance the adaptability and stability of the ship's power system under complex working conditions. By analyzing the power utilization rate of different equipment, the power nodes with low power utilization rate are allocated with smaller power, and the power nodes with high power utilization rate are allocated with higher power, which can maximize the power utilization rate of the power system as a whole and maximize the normal operation of the ship.

[0046] It should be noted that each edge power node refers to a power node device that has little impact on the safety and stability of the ship's operation, and its operation effect has no impact on the safety of the ship, such as the equipment for various entertainment activities on the ship.

[0047] It should be noted that edge power nodes and key power nodes are pre-divided by staff and stored in the ship's backend relationship.

[0048] Further, the carrier frequency of each edge power node is adjusted. The specific method is as follows: if a certain edge power node is an intermittently operating edge power node, a difference processing is performed based on the allocated power of the edge power node and the ideal power of the edge power node to obtain a first difference, and the first difference is processed with the ideal power of the edge power node to obtain an ideal power adjustment coefficient, and the ratio is matched with the database to obtain a first carrier frequency adjustment factor; the carrier frequency fluctuation coefficient of the intermittently operating edge power node preset in the database is obtained; the initial carrier frequency of the edge power node is adjusted based on the carrier frequency adjustment factor and the carrier frequency fluctuation coefficient to obtain an execution carrier frequency interval, and the initial carrier frequency of the edge power node is adjusted to the execution carrier frequency interval to maintain; the execution carrier frequency interval, the specific analysis steps are: coupling the carrier frequency adjustment factor with the initial carrier frequency of the edge power node The reference execution carrier frequency is obtained by combining, and the reference execution carrier frequency and the carrier frequency fluctuation coefficient are multiplicatively coupled to obtain the carrier frequency coupling value, and the reference execution carrier frequency and the carrier frequency coupling value are differenced to obtain the lower limit value of the execution carrier frequency interval, and the reference execution carrier frequency and the carrier frequency coupling value are superimposed to obtain the upper limit value of the execution carrier frequency interval, thereby obtaining the execution carrier frequency interval; if the edge power node is a periodically operating edge power node, a difference is performed based on the allocated power of the edge power node and the ideal power of the edge power node to obtain a second difference, and the second difference is compared with the ideal power of the edge power node to obtain the ideal power adjustment coefficient, and matched with the database to obtain the second carrier frequency adjustment factor; the carrier frequency adjusts the initial carrier frequency of the edge power node upward based on the carrier frequency adjustment factor to obtain the execution carrier frequency.

[0049] In this embodiment, it should be noted that the first difference is processed by ratio with the ideal power of the edge power node. The specific method is: divide the first difference by the ideal power of the edge power node to obtain the difference ratio, which is the ideal power adjustment coefficient. The reference execution carrier frequency and the carrier frequency coupling value are processed by difference to obtain the lower limit of the execution carrier frequency interval. The specific method is: subtract the carrier frequency coupling value from the reference execution carrier frequency to obtain the lower limit of the execution carrier frequency interval. The reference execution carrier frequency and the carrier frequency coupling value are superimposed to obtain the upper limit of the execution carrier frequency interval. The specific method is: add the reference execution carrier frequency and the carrier frequency coupling value to obtain the upper limit of the execution carrier frequency interval.

[0050] The ideal power adjustment coefficient is obtained by subtracting the ideal power of the edge power node from the allocated power of the edge power node to obtain a second difference, and dividing the second difference by the ideal power of the edge power node to obtain the ideal power adjustment coefficient.

[0051] The carrier frequency fluctuation coefficient refers to the allowable fluctuation degree of the carrier frequency of the intermittently operating edge power node during normal operation. The execution carrier frequency range refers to the allowable fluctuation range of the carrier frequency of the intermittently operating edge power node during normal operation.

[0052] Adjusting the carrier frequency of each edge power node to maintain a high level helps to reduce low-frequency harmonics, thereby reducing electromagnetic interference to the external environment, while enhancing electromagnetic compatibility. Through reasonable carrier frequency selection, the current waveform can be improved to reduce motor losses while indirectly reducing additional losses.

[0053] The ideal power adjustment coefficient is obtained and matched with the database to obtain the first carrier frequency adjustment factor. The specific method is: obtain the preset ideal power adjustment coefficient intervals in the database and the reference first carrier frequency adjustment factor corresponding to each ideal power adjustment coefficient, and compare them with the ideal power adjustment coefficient. If the ideal power adjustment coefficient is within a preset ideal power adjustment coefficient interval, obtain the reference first carrier frequency adjustment factor corresponding to the ideal power adjustment coefficient interval as the first carrier frequency adjustment factor.

[0054] According to the type of edge power node, separate analysis is performed. If the edge power node is an intermittently operating edge power node, the execution carrier frequency range is obtained through analysis. If the edge power node is a periodically operating edge power node, the execution carrier frequency is obtained through analysis. This is because the operating characteristics of edge power nodes are different. For example, the operating characteristics of intermittent equipment (such as air conditioners and water pumps) are: non-continuous operation and frequent start and stop. At this time, the power mutation is large and dynamic adaptation is required. Therefore, an elastic frequency range is required to buffer the impact, absorb the power impact, and reduce harmonic distortion. The operating characteristics of periodic equipment (such as data servers) are: scheduled tasks, regular operation, and relatively stable loads. Therefore, precise frequency locking is required to ensure timing, ensure task cycle stability, and avoid clock drift.

[0055] For intermittently operating edge power nodes, by calculating the execution carrier frequency interval and adjusting it to the interval, it is possible to flexibly respond to the fluctuation of node power demand and ensure the stability and quality of power. For periodically operating edge power nodes, the execution carrier frequency is adjusted upward based on the carrier frequency adjustment factor, which can make it operate stably and reduce harmonic interference, ensuring that different types of edge power nodes can operate in their best state, thereby ensuring the overall performance and reliability of the ship's power system. The power demand of intermittently operating edge power nodes fluctuates greatly and irregularly. For example, some auxiliary equipment may start and stop intermittently according to actual working conditions, resulting in instantaneous changes in power demand. Therefore, the carrier frequency needs to be flexibly adjusted within a certain range to adapt to such fluctuations, and the power demand of periodically operating edge power nodes shows regular changes. For example, the power demand of the ship's propulsion motor is relatively stable and fluctuates periodically at a stable speed. Therefore, the carrier frequency can be set to a fixed value to match its periodic characteristics.

[0056] The second carrier frequency adjustment factor is obtained, and the specific steps are: obtain each power ideal adjustment coefficient interval preset in the database and the reference second carrier frequency adjustment factor corresponding to each power ideal adjustment coefficient interval, and compare them with the power ideal adjustment coefficient; if the power ideal adjustment coefficient is within a preset power ideal adjustment coefficient interval, obtain the reference second carrier frequency adjustment factor corresponding to the power ideal adjustment coefficient interval as the second carrier frequency adjustment factor.

[0057] The carrier frequency adjusts the initial carrier frequency of the edge power node upward based on the carrier frequency adjustment factor to obtain the execution carrier frequency. The specific method is as follows: ; In the formula represents the execution carrier frequency of the i-th edge power node, represents the initial carrier frequency of the ith edge power node, represents the carrier frequency adjustment factor of the i-th edge power node.

[0058] Furthermore, the operation stability parameters of the key nodes after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability are obtained, and the operation judgment results of the key nodes are obtained by analysis. The specific method is: obtain the operation stability parameters of the key nodes, and the operation stability parameters of the key nodes include the average voltage fluctuation rate, the average communication bit error rate, the average operation frequency deviation, and the average harmonic distortion rate; obtain the key node operation reference set preset in the database, and compare them with the operation stability parameters of the key nodes respectively to obtain the comparison processing results, and introduce the corresponding weighting factors to obtain the key node operation equilibrium value; obtain the key node operation equilibrium threshold preset in the database, and compare it with the key node operation equilibrium value. If the key node operation equilibrium value is greater than the key node operation equilibrium threshold, the key node operation judgment result is stable operation, otherwise the key node operation judgment result is unstable operation; the key node operation fluctuation reference set includes the allowable value of voltage fluctuation rate, the allowable value of communication bit error rate, the allowable value of operation frequency deviation, and the allowable value of harmonic distortion rate.

[0059] In this embodiment, the operation stability parameters of the key nodes include the average value of voltage fluctuation rate, the average value of communication bit error rate, the average value of operation frequency deviation and the average value of harmonic distortion rate, wherein the key node includes multiple devices, so these operation stability parameters refer to the average data of all devices under the key node. The average value of voltage fluctuation rate is obtained by using the built-in voltage monitoring instrument of the ship to obtain the voltage, and the average value of voltage fluctuation rate refers to the average value of voltage fluctuation rate of all devices under the key node. The average value of communication bit error rate is obtained by using the built-in bit error meter of the ship to measure the communication bit error rate, and the average value of communication bit error rate refers to the average value of communication bit error rate of all devices under the key node. The average value of operation frequency deviation is obtained by measuring by the built-in frequency meter of the ship, and the average value of operation frequency deviation refers to the average value of operation frequency deviation (the difference between the corresponding maximum value and minimum value) of each key node. The average value of harmonic distortion rate is obtained by measuring by using the built-in harmonic analyzer of the ship, and the average value of harmonic distortion rate refers to the average value of the harmonic distortion rate of each key node.

[0060] The key node operation equilibrium value is obtained by analyzing the operation stability parameters of the key nodes, taking into account the mutual influence relationship between these parameters. For example, voltage fluctuations lead to inaccurate switching actions of key node equipment (such as inverters and rectifiers), which directly pushes up the harmonic distortion rate. Voltage instability will weaken the compensation effect of the filter and further amplify the harmonic pollution. Frequency deviation will destroy the clock synchronization mechanism of the communication equipment (such as PLL phase-locked loop loss), resulting in signal sampling misalignment and increased bit error rate. A high bit error rate will trigger erroneous control instructions (such as false triggering of relays), aggravating the sudden change of generator load and further deteriorating frequency stability. Harmonic currents produce additional voltage drops on the grid impedance, resulting in voltage waveform distortion (such as voltage sags or spikes), which increases the voltage fluctuation rate. At the same time, the transformer core saturation caused by harmonics will amplify the hysteresis loss, cause local temperature rise and reduce the voltage regulation capability, forming a vicious circle.

[0061] Get the key node operation balance value, the specific method is: ; In the formula, Indicates the running balance value of key nodes. represents the average value of voltage fluctuation rate, Indicates the allowable value of voltage fluctuation rate. Indicates the average value of communication bit error rate, Indicates the permissible value of communication bit error rate. Indicates the average value of the operating frequency deviation, Indicates the allowable value of operating frequency deviation. It represents the average value of harmonic distortion rate. Indicates the permissible value of harmonic distortion rate, represents the voltage fluctuation weighting factor, represents the communication bit error rate weighting factor, Operating frequency deviation weighting factor, Represents the harmonic distortion weighting factor.

[0062] The voltage fluctuation rate weighting factor, communication bit error rate weighting factor, frequency deviation weighting factor and harmonic distortion rate weighting factor can be obtained from the database. For example, the voltage fluctuation rate weighting factor can be obtained by obtaining the historical voltage fluctuation rate stored in the database and the voltage fluctuation rate weighting factor corresponding to the historical voltage fluctuation rate, thereby constructing a voltage fluctuation rate mapping set, wherein there is a one-to-one or many-to-one correspondence in the mapping set. The voltage fluctuation rate weighting factor can be obtained by inputting the voltage fluctuation rate data to be used into the voltage fluctuation rate mapping set. Other weighting factors such as communication bit error rate weighting factor, frequency deviation weighting factor and harmonic distortion rate weighting factor are obtained in the same way as voltage fluctuation rate weighting factor, and can also be obtained through mapping set, where communication bit error rate weighting factor corresponds to communication bit error rate mapping set, frequency deviation weighting factor corresponds to frequency deviation mapping set, and harmonic distortion rate weighting factor corresponds to harmonic distortion rate mapping set. By analyzing the operation stability parameters of key nodes to obtain the operation equilibrium value of key nodes, it is helpful to accurately evaluate the operation judgment results of key nodes, judge whether the power system is running stably under the initial adjustment, and after judgment, it can be known whether the generator equipment needs to be adjusted to avoid blind adjustment.

[0063] Furthermore, the ship's power stability operating value and key node operating equilibrium value after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability are obtained, and the generator is adjusted accordingly to obtain the generator operation execution parameters. The specific method is: obtain the ship's power stability operating value after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability, and match it with the database to obtain the first generator operation adjustment factor; obtain the operation equilibrium threshold preset in the database, and perform difference processing with the key node operation equilibrium value to obtain the operation equilibrium difference, and compare the operation equilibrium difference with the operation equilibrium threshold to obtain the operation stability adjustment factor; based on the operation stability adjustment factor and matching with the database, the second generator operation adjustment factor is obtained; based on the first generator operation adjustment factor and the second generator operation adjustment factor, the current generator speed is adjusted upward to obtain the generator operating speed, and the generator speed is adjusted according to the generator operating speed. Work; based on the matching of the generator working speed with the database, the necessary working time of the generator is obtained, the moment when the current generator speed works according to the generator working speed is taken as the starting moment, and the generator working adjustment period is circled; the generator output power change rate within the generator working adjustment period and the generator output power change rate threshold preset in the database are obtained, and compared. If the generator output power change rate is above the generator output power change rate threshold, it means that the ship's power regulation result is qualified, and the initial excitation current of the generator is kept unchanged. If the generator output power change rate is less than the generator output power change rate threshold, it means that the ship's power regulation result is unqualified, and the initial excitation current of the generator is adjusted to obtain the generator working excitation current, and the initial excitation current of the generator is adjusted to work according to the generator working excitation current.

[0064] In this embodiment, it should be noted that the current generator speed refers to the speed of the generator before the generator is adjusted, and the current generator excitation current refers to the excitation current of the generator before the generator is adjusted. The length of the generator operation adjustment period is the length of time required for the generator operation adjustment.

[0065] Obtain the ship's power stability operation value after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability, and match it with the database to obtain the first generator operation adjustment factor. The specific method is: obtain the ship's power stability operation value intervals after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability preset in the database and the generator operation reference first adjustment factor corresponding to each ship's power stability operation value interval after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability, and compare them with the ship's power stability operation value after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability. If the ship's power stability operation value after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability is within a preset ship's power stability operation value interval after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability, then obtain the generator operation reference first adjustment factor corresponding to the interval as the generator operation first adjustment factor.

[0066] Based on the operation stability adjustment factor and matching with the database, the specific method for obtaining the second adjustment factor of generator operation is: obtain each operation stability adjustment factor interval preset in the database and the generator operation reference second adjustment factor corresponding to each operation stability adjustment factor interval, and compare them with the operation stability adjustment factor; if the operation stability adjustment factor is within a preset operation stability adjustment factor interval, obtain the generator operation reference second adjustment factor corresponding to the interval as the second adjustment factor of generator operation.

[0067] Based on the first adjustment factor and the second adjustment factor of the generator operation, the current speed of the generator is adjusted upward to obtain the working speed of the generator. The specific method is as follows: ; In the formula, Indicates the generator operating speed. Indicates the current speed of the generator. Indicates the first adjustment factor of the generator operation, Indicates the second adjustment factor of generator operation.

[0068] By comparing the generator output power change rate during the generator working adjustment period with the generator output power change rate threshold preset in the database, if the generator output power change rate is above the generator output power change rate threshold, it means that the ship's power regulation judgment result is that the power is qualified, and the initial excitation current of the generator is kept unchanged, indicating that in this case the adjustment effect can be achieved by only adjusting the generator speed, indicating that the ship's power system can meet the current power demand, so there is no need to adjust the initial excitation current of the generator.

[0069] If the generator output power change rate is less than the generator output power change rate threshold, it means that the ship's power regulation judgment result is unqualified, and the generator's initial excitation current is adjusted to obtain the generator's working excitation current. By monitoring the output power change rate and adjusting the excitation current accordingly, the ship's power system can be powered faster and better to maintain the stability of the ship's electricity consumption. At the same time, adjusting the excitation current according to actual power demand can optimize energy utilization efficiency, reduce unnecessary energy waste, and improve power generation efficiency.

[0070] Furthermore, the initial excitation current of the generator is adjusted to obtain the working excitation current of the generator. The specific method is: based on the generator output power change rate and the generator output power change rate threshold, difference processing is performed to obtain the generator output power change rate difference, and the generator output power change rate difference is compared and analyzed with the generator output power change rate threshold to obtain the power change rate difference factor; based on the power change rate difference factor, the excitation current adjustment ratio is obtained by matching with the database, and the initial excitation current of the generator is adjusted based on the excitation current adjustment ratio to obtain the generator working excitation current.

[0071] In this embodiment, it should be noted that based on the generator output power change rate and the generator output power change rate threshold, difference processing is performed to obtain the generator output power change rate difference, specifically, the generator output power change rate difference is obtained by subtracting the generator output power change rate from the generator output power change rate threshold.

[0072] Based on the matching of the power change rate gap factor with the database, the excitation current adjustment ratio is obtained. The specific method is: obtain the power change rate gap factor intervals preset in the database and the reference excitation current adjustment ratio corresponding to each power change rate gap factor interval, and compare them with the power change rate gap factor. If the power change rate gap factor is within a preset power change rate gap factor interval, then obtain the reference excitation current adjustment ratio corresponding to the interval as the excitation current adjustment ratio.

[0073] It should be noted that the initial excitation current of the generator is adjusted based on the excitation current adjustment ratio to obtain the working excitation current of the generator. The adjustment direction is upward adjustment. The specific method of adjustment is: In the formula, Indicates the generator working excitation current, represents the initial excitation current of the generator, Indicates the excitation current adjustment ratio.

[0074] By adjusting the generator speed and excitation current, the ship's continuous and stable power supply is guaranteed in complex sea conditions. In addition, by comparing the generator output power change rate with the preset threshold, it is determined whether the excitation current needs to be adjusted, and an adjustment strategy is formulated based on actual operating data, which helps maintain the stability of the generator output power. By accurately adjusting the excitation current, the generator output power can be optimized, the overall efficiency and stability of the ship's power system can be improved, the potential risks caused by the instability of the power system can be reduced, and the ability of the ship's power system to cope with different working conditions can be further enhanced.

[0075] like Figure 3 , is a structural diagram of a shipping risk assessment system based on a quantitative model provided in an embodiment of the present application. A shipping risk assessment system based on a quantitative model provided in an embodiment of the present application includes: a power demand analysis module, a power stable operation analysis module, a stability judgment module, an initial stability adjustment module, a stability adjustment result judgment module and a generator adjustment module; wherein the power demand analysis module is used to obtain aerodynamic influence parameters to analyze and obtain aerodynamic influence fluctuation values, obtain hydrodynamic influence parameters to analyze and obtain hydrodynamic influence fluctuation values, and both are input into a preset quantitative model to analyze and obtain a shipping risk driving value, thereby matching and obtaining a ship power stability demand value; the power stable operation analysis module is used to obtain a ship power operation stability parameter, and analyze and obtain a ship power stability operation value; the stability judgment module is used to determine the power stability demand value of the ship and the power stability of the ship based on the ship power stability demand value and the ship power stability The fixed operating value is analyzed to obtain the ship power regulation judgment result. If the ship power regulation judgment result is that the power is qualified, the ship power stability initial adjustment will not be executed, otherwise the initial stability adjustment module will be executed; the initial stability adjustment module is used to obtain the ship's residual power generation and the power configuration parameters of each edge power node, thereby analyzing and obtaining the allocated power of each edge power node for the ship's power stability initial adjustment; the stability adjustment result judgment module is used to obtain the operation stability parameters of the key nodes after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability, and analyze to obtain the key node operation judgment result. If the key node operation judgment result is that the operation is stable, the generator adjustment will not be performed, otherwise the generator adjustment module will be executed; the generator adjustment module is used to obtain the ship's power stability operation value and the key node operation balance value after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability, thereby adjusting the generator and obtaining the generator operation execution parameters.

[0076] To summarize, in this embodiment, aerodynamic influence fluctuation values ​​are obtained by obtaining aerodynamic influence parameters for analysis, and hydrodynamic influence fluctuation values ​​are obtained by obtaining hydrodynamic influence parameters for analysis, and both are input into a preset quantitative model to obtain a shipping risk driving value through analysis, thereby matching the ship's power stability demand value, and then adjusting the ship's power stability, thereby achieving optimal adjustment of the ship's power system under severe convective weather, reducing the risk of ship operation, and effectively solving the problem of increased shipping risk due to interference of severe convective weather on the ship's power system in the prior art, and achieving stable operation of the ship's power system.

[0077] It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that embodiments of the present invention may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention may take the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0078] The present invention is described with reference to flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of processes and / or blocks in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0079] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0080] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0081] Although the preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described, those skilled in the art may make other changes and modifications to these embodiments once they have learned the basic creative concept. Therefore, the appended claims are intended to be interpreted as including the preferred embodiments and all changes and modifications that fall within the scope of the present invention.

[0082] Obviously, those skilled in the art can make various changes and modifications to the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. Thus, if these modifications and variations of the present invention fall within the scope of the claims of the present invention and their equivalents, the present invention is also intended to include these modifications and variations.

Claims

1. A shipping risk assessment method based on a quantitative model, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: S1. Obtain aerodynamic impact parameters and analyze them to obtain aerodynamic impact fluctuation values, obtain hydrodynamic impact parameters and analyze them to obtain hydrodynamic impact fluctuation values, and input them into a preset quantitative model to analyze and obtain the shipping risk driving value, thereby matching and obtaining the stable power demand value of the ship; S2. Obtain the stable operation parameters of the ship's power and analyze to obtain the stable operation value of the ship's power; S3, based on the analysis of the ship's power stability demand value and the ship's power stability operation value, obtain the ship's power regulation judgment result. If the ship's power regulation judgment result is that the power is qualified, the ship's power stability initial adjustment is not performed, otherwise S4 is executed; S4, obtaining the remaining power of the ship's power generation and the power configuration parameters of each edge power node, thereby analyzing and obtaining the allocated power of each edge power node to perform initial adjustment of the ship's power stability; S5, obtaining the operation stability parameters of the key nodes after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability, analyzing and obtaining the operation determination results of the key nodes, and if the operation determination results of the key nodes are stable, the generator adjustment is not performed, otherwise S6 is executed; S6. Obtain the ship power stability operation value and key node operation balance value after the initial adjustment of the ship power stability, thereby adjusting the generator and obtaining the generator operation execution parameters.

2. The shipping risk assessment method based on the quantitative model as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: The shipping risk driving value is obtained, and the stable power demand value of the ship is obtained by matching. The specific method is: Obtain the preset quantitative model in the database; Based on the aerodynamic impact fluctuation value and hydrodynamic impact fluctuation value as the input variables of the quantitative model, they are input into the quantitative model, processed by the quantitative model, and the shipping risk driving value is output; Obtain each shipping risk driving value interval preset in the database and the reference ship power stability demand value corresponding to each shipping risk driving value interval, and compare them with the shipping risk driving value; if the shipping risk driving value is within a preset shipping risk driving value interval, obtain the reference ship power stability demand value corresponding to the interval as the ship power stability demand value.

3. The shipping risk assessment method based on the quantitative model as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: The method of obtaining the stable power operation parameters of the ship and analyzing the stable power operation value of the ship is as follows: Obtaining ship power operation stability parameters, wherein the ship power operation stability parameters include generator speed fluctuation rate, battery minimum remaining capacity, generator coolant average temperature and cabin temperature fluctuation rate; Obtaining a preset ship power operation stability reference set in a database, wherein the ship power operation stability reference set includes a rotation speed fluctuation rate allowable value, a battery minimum remaining capacity reference value, a coolant temperature reference value, and a temperature fluctuation rate allowable value; Based on the generator speed fluctuation rate, the average temperature of the generator coolant and the cabin temperature fluctuation rate, comparative analysis is performed with the speed fluctuation allowable value, the coolant temperature reference value and the temperature fluctuation allowable value respectively, the hull stability comparison result is obtained and the corresponding weighting factor is introduced to obtain the hull stability quantification value, based on the battery minimum remaining capacity and the battery minimum remaining capacity reference value, the battery capacity comparative analysis result is obtained, and then the battery minimum remaining capacity weighting factor is introduced for correction to obtain the correction result, and the correction result is coupled with the hull stability quantification value to obtain the ship power stable operation value.

4. The shipping risk assessment method based on the quantitative model as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: The ship power regulation determination result is obtained based on the analysis of the ship power stability demand value and the ship power stability operation value. The specific method is as follows: Based on the comparison between the ship's power stability demand value and the ship's power stability operation value, a ship's power regulation determination result is obtained; If the ship's power stability demand value is above the ship's power stability operation value, the ship's power regulation judgment result is that the power is unqualified; If the ship's power stability demand value is less than the ship's power stability operation value, the ship's power regulation judgment result is that the power is qualified.

5. The shipping risk assessment method based on the quantitative model as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: The method of obtaining the surplus power of the ship's power generation and the power configuration parameters of each edge power node, thereby analyzing and obtaining the allocated power of each edge power node to perform initial adjustment of the ship's power stability is as follows: Obtain the ship's power generation and the total operating power of key nodes, perform difference processing, and obtain the ship's remaining power generation; Acquire power configuration parameters of each edge power node, wherein the power configuration parameters of each edge power node include power utilization, minimum operating power, and ideal operating power of each edge power node; Based on the power utilization rate of each edge power node and matching with the database, the power allocation coefficient of each edge power node is obtained; Based on the surplus power of the ship's power generation and the power allocation coefficient, minimum operating power and ideal operating power of each edge power node, a coupling analysis is performed to obtain the allocated power of each edge power node; The specific analysis steps of the allocated power of each edge power node are as follows: comparing and analyzing the minimum operating power of each edge power node with the ideal operating power to obtain a power comparison result, and performing multiplicative coupling based on the remaining power of the ship power generation, the power comparison result and the power allocation coefficient to obtain the allocated power of each edge power node; Based on the allocated power of each edge power node and compared with the minimum operating power corresponding to the edge power node, if the allocated power of a certain edge power node is greater than the minimum operating power, the edge power node operates according to the allocated power and adjusts the carrier frequency of each edge power node; otherwise, the edge power node operates according to the minimum operating power and does not perform carrier frequency adjustment; The edge power nodes include intermittently operated edge power nodes and periodically operated edge power nodes.

6. The shipping risk assessment method based on the quantitative model as claimed in claim 5, characterized in that: The specific method of adjusting the carrier frequency of each edge power node is as follows: If an edge power node is an intermittently operating edge power node, a difference is processed based on the allocated power of the edge power node and the ideal power of the edge power node to obtain a first difference, and a ratio is processed between the first difference and the ideal power of the edge power node to obtain an ideal power adjustment coefficient, and the ratio is matched with the database to obtain a first carrier frequency adjustment factor; Obtaining a carrier frequency fluctuation coefficient of an intermittently operating edge power node preset in a database; The initial carrier frequency of the edge power node is adjusted based on the carrier frequency adjustment factor and the carrier frequency fluctuation coefficient to obtain an execution carrier frequency interval, and the initial carrier frequency of the edge power node is adjusted to maintain the execution carrier frequency interval; The execution carrier frequency interval, specifically, the analysis steps are: based on the carrier frequency adjustment factor, coupling with the initial carrier frequency of the edge power node obtains a reference execution carrier frequency, based on the reference execution carrier frequency and the carrier frequency fluctuation coefficient, multiplicatively coupling, obtains a carrier frequency coupling value, performs difference processing on the reference execution carrier frequency and the carrier frequency coupling value, obtains a lower limit value of the execution carrier frequency interval, performs superposition processing on the reference execution carrier frequency and the carrier frequency coupling value, obtains an upper limit value of the execution carrier frequency interval, thereby obtains the execution carrier frequency interval; If the edge power node is a periodically operating edge power node, a difference is processed based on the allocated power of the edge power node and the ideal power of the edge power node to obtain a second difference, and the second difference is compared with the ideal power of the edge power node to obtain an ideal power adjustment coefficient, and the power is matched with the database to obtain a second carrier frequency adjustment factor; The carrier frequency adjusts the initial carrier frequency of the edge power node upward based on the carrier frequency adjustment factor to obtain an execution carrier frequency.

7. The shipping risk assessment method based on a quantitative model as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: The method of obtaining the operation stability parameters of the key nodes after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability and analyzing the operation determination results of the key nodes is as follows: Obtaining operation stability parameters of key nodes, wherein the operation stability parameters of key nodes include an average voltage fluctuation rate, an average communication bit error rate, an average operation frequency deviation, and an average harmonic distortion rate; Obtain the preset key node operation reference set in the database, and compare it with the key node operation stability parameters respectively, obtain the comparison processing results, and introduce the corresponding weighting factors to obtain the key node operation equilibrium value; Obtain the key node operation balance threshold preset in the database, and compare it with the key node operation balance value. If the key node operation balance value is greater than the key node operation balance threshold, the key node operation determination result is stable operation, otherwise the key node operation determination result is unstable operation; The key node operation fluctuation reference set includes an allowable value of voltage fluctuation rate, an allowable value of communication bit error rate, an allowable value of operation frequency deviation and an allowable value of harmonic distortion rate.

8. The shipping risk assessment method based on a quantitative model as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: The method of obtaining the ship power stability operation value and the key node operation balance value after the ship power stability is initially adjusted, thereby adjusting the generator and obtaining the generator operation execution parameters is as follows: Obtain the ship power stability operation value after the initial adjustment of the ship power stability, and match it with the database to obtain the first adjustment factor of the generator operation; Obtaining the preset operation balance threshold in the database, performing difference processing with the operation balance value of the key node to obtain the operation balance difference, and comparing the operation balance difference with the operation balance threshold to obtain the operation stability adjustment factor; Based on the operation stability adjustment factor and matching with the database, a second generator operation adjustment factor is obtained; Based on the first generator operation adjustment factor and the second generator operation adjustment factor, the current speed of the generator is adjusted upward to obtain the working speed of the generator, and the speed of the generator is adjusted to operate according to the working speed of the generator; Based on the matching of the generator working speed with the database, the necessary working time of the generator is obtained, the time when the current generator speed works according to the generator working speed is taken as the starting time, and the generator working adjustment period is circled; The generator output power change rate during the generator working adjustment period and the generator output power change rate threshold preset in the database are obtained and compared. If the generator output power change rate is above the generator output power change rate threshold, it means that the ship's power regulation judgment result is qualified, and the initial excitation current of the generator is kept unchanged. If the generator output power change rate is less than the generator output power change rate threshold, it means that the ship's power regulation judgment result is unqualified, and the initial excitation current of the generator is adjusted to obtain the generator working excitation current, and the initial excitation current of the generator is adjusted to work according to the generator working excitation current.

9. The shipping risk assessment method based on the quantitative model as claimed in claim 8, characterized in that: The initial excitation current of the generator is adjusted to obtain the working excitation current of the generator, and the specific method is as follows: Based on the generator output power change rate and the generator output power change rate threshold, difference processing is performed to obtain the generator output power change rate difference, and the generator output power change rate difference is compared and analyzed with the generator output power change rate threshold to obtain the power change rate difference factor; Based on the power change rate gap factor, the excitation current adjustment ratio is matched with the database to obtain the initial excitation current of the generator based on the excitation current adjustment ratio to obtain the working excitation current of the generator.

10. A system for applying a shipping risk assessment method based on a quantitative model as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 9, characterized in that: include: Power demand analysis module, power stable operation analysis module, stability judgment module, initial stability adjustment module, stability adjustment result judgment module and generator adjustment module; The power demand analysis module is used to obtain the aerodynamic impact parameter analysis to obtain the aerodynamic impact fluctuation value, obtain the hydrodynamic impact parameter analysis to obtain the hydrodynamic impact fluctuation value, and input them into the preset quantitative model to analyze and obtain the shipping risk driving value, thereby matching and obtaining the stable power demand value of the ship; The power stable operation analysis module is used to obtain the power stable operation parameters of the ship and analyze and obtain the power stable operation value of the ship; The stability judgment module is used to obtain the ship power regulation judgment result based on the ship power stability demand value and the ship power stability operation value analysis. If the ship power regulation judgment result is that the power is qualified, the ship power stability initial adjustment is not executed, otherwise the initial stability adjustment module is executed; The initial stability adjustment module is used to obtain the remaining power of the ship's power generation and the power configuration parameters of each edge power node, thereby analyzing and obtaining the allocated power of each edge power node to perform initial stability adjustment of the ship's power; The stability adjustment result determination module is used to obtain the operation stability parameters of the key nodes after the initial adjustment of the ship's power stability, analyze and obtain the operation determination results of the key nodes, and if the operation determination result of the key nodes is stable, the generator adjustment is not performed, otherwise the generator adjustment module is executed; The generator adjustment module is used to obtain the ship power stability operation value and the key node operation balance value after the ship power stability is initially adjusted, thereby adjusting the generator and obtaining the generator operation execution parameters.

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