Reservoir level amplitude prediction method in accident handling process

Abstract

According to the reservoir level variable amplitude prediction method in the accident handling process, a variable amplitude prediction system is included, and the variable amplitude prediction system comprises a water level-reservoir capacity curve query system, an automatic reservoir capacity calculation system, a flow calculation system, a net reservoir storage flow calculation module and a time input module; automatically calling the data of the corresponding moment based on the calculation moment, calling the corresponding reservoir capacity and calculating the reservoir capacity according to the reservoir capacity curve, and calculating the corresponding flow per hour under the water level at the moment according to the self-action difference of the two reservoir capacity data; net reservoir inflow is obtained by subtracting reservoir outflow from reservoir inflow, water level data rising per hour is obtained by making a ratio of the net reservoir inflow to flow rising per hour, the reservoir water level amplitude and the water level after the hour are automatically predicted and calculated, and meanwhile the predicted water level is automatically generated. The tedious process of manual calculation at present is omitted, the calculation error probability is reduced, the scheduling risk of water level pre-judgment errors is reduced, and the working efficiency of a watchman during accident handling is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of reservoir water level fluctuations, and relates to a method for predicting reservoir water level fluctuations during accident handling. Background Art

[0002] In the face of power plant failures or accidents, a large number of signals in the monitoring system need to be sorted out and judged urgently. During the accident handling process, a large number of events need to be screened and judged one by one, which consumes a lot of time and energy. Moreover, the monitoring of upstream and downstream water levels is particularly important. Currently, the prediction of water level fluctuations is all calculated manually.

[0003] First, there is a possibility of calculation errors, resulting in misjudgment of water level prediction and a sharp increase in dispatching risks; second, during the accident handling stage, a large amount of energy is concentrated on decision-making, communication and coordination, information sorting and reporting, etc. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a method for predicting reservoir water level fluctuations during accident handling, which can accurately predict the change of reservoir water level during accident handling and predict the time limit from the current water level to the limited water level.

[0005] To solve the above technical problem, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is: a method for predicting reservoir water level fluctuations during accident handling, including a fluctuation prediction system, which includes a water level-capacity curve query system, a capacity automatic calculation system, a flow calculation system, a net inflow calculation module, and a time input module; The method for predicting its water level fluctuations includes the following steps: S1, automatically call the relevant data at the start time of calculation; S2, automatically query the predicted inflow ; S3, automatically query and calculate the total plant water consumption rate δ; S4, automatically query and calculate the flow rate required for the current water level to rise 1 cm per hour according to the current water level ; ; S5, input the total plant active power after the accident or the accident loss load ; S6, input the prediction time ; S7, calculate the total plant outflow: = δ; S8, calculate the net inflow: = —

[0006] S9. Calculate the water level variation range based on the net inflow into the reservoir: =( / )×

[0007] S10, Water level after hours: 0.01 + =

[0008] S11. Automatically calculate = Water levels after 1h, 2h, 3h...: 0.01×( / )× + .

[0009] In S1, automatically detect and call the system time, and call the corresponding data according to this moment.

[0010] In S2, according to the moment retrieved in S1, retrieve and query the inflow into the reservoir at the corresponding moment .

[0011] In S3, according to the moment retrieved in S1, query and calculate the average water consumption rate δ of the whole plant at the corresponding moment.

[0012] In S4, query the current water level through the reservoir capacity curve of the hydropower station The corresponding reservoir capacity , and the reservoir capacity corresponding to a 1-meter rise in the current water level The corresponding reservoir capacity , in order to - = , if the water volume required for a 1-meter rise in the water level All causes the water level to rise within 1 hour, then the corresponding flow rate is: = ÷(1×60×60)= 100 million ( / s)= ( / s)→ = Flow rate for a 1-cm rise in 1 hour = ( / s).

[0013] In S7 and S8, multiply the average water consumption rate δ by the total active power of the whole plant To obtain the outflow ; Use the inflow minus the outflow to know the net inflow .

[0014] In S9, the net inflow is compared with the flow required to raise the water level by 1 cm per hour, so as to know how many centimeters the reservoir water level will rise per hour under the current net inflow, and then multiplied by the time n, the rising water level after n hours can be obtained. 。

[0015] In S10 and S11, the initial water level of the reservoir plus the rising water level after n hours , that is, the final water level of the reservoir can be obtained; at the same time, the water levels after 1 hour, 2 hours, 3 hours... after this moment can also be automatically calculated.

[0016] The water level - storage capacity curve query system automatically retrieves the current water level data of the water regulation automation system according to the retrieved current moment and queries the corresponding storage capacity; the storage capacity automatic calculation system queries the corresponding storage capacity by the rising meters of the current water level and automatically calculates the change in storage capacity.

[0017] The flow calculation system automatically calculates the corresponding flow according to the change in storage capacity; the net inflow calculation module calls the corresponding inflow data at the current moment and the corresponding water consumption rate at the current moment, and then inputs the current plant load, and the net inflow can be calculated; the time input module automatically calculates the water level change curve after the current moment.

[0018] The main beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: Accurately predict the change of the reservoir water level during accident handling.

[0019] Predict the time limit from the current water level to the limit water level.

[0020] Improve the prediction accuracy and precision of the reservoir water level change amplitude and enhance the work efficiency. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0021] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the drawings and embodiments.

[0022] Figure 1 is the flow chart of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0023] As Figure 1 in, a method for predicting the change amplitude of the reservoir water level during accident handling includes a change amplitude prediction system, and the change amplitude prediction system includes a water level - storage capacity curve query system, a storage capacity automatic calculation system, a flow calculation system, a net inflow calculation module and a time input module; The method for predicting the change amplitude of the water level includes the following steps: S1, automatically call the relevant data at this moment based on the calculation start moment; S2, automatically query the predicted inflow ; S3, automatically query and calculate the plant water consumption rate δ; S4. Automatically query and calculate the current water level based on the current water level The flow rate required for the water level to rise 1 cm per hour ; S5. Input the total active power of the whole plant after the accident or the accident loss load ; S6. Input the prediction time ; S7. Calculate the total discharge flow of the whole plant: = δ; S8. Calculate the net inflow: = —

[0024] S9. Calculate the water level variation range according to the net inflow: =( / )×

[0025] S10, Water level after hours: 0.01 + =

[0026] S11. Automatically calculate =Water levels after 1h, 2h, 3h...: 0.01×( / )× + 。

[0027] Example 1, The water level variation range prediction system consists of: a water level - storage capacity curve query system, a storage capacity automatic calculation system, a flow rate calculation system, a net inflow calculation module, and a time input module.

[0028] 1. Water level - storage capacity curve query system: According to the retrieved current moment, automatically retrieve the current water level data of the water dispatch automation system and query the corresponding storage capacity.

[0029] 2. Storage capacity automatic calculation system: Query the corresponding storage capacity by the rising meters of the current water level and automatically calculate the change in storage capacity.

[0030] 3. Flow rate calculation system: Automatically calculate the corresponding flow rate through the change in storage capacity.

[0031] 4. Net inflow calculation module: Call the corresponding inflow data at the current moment and the corresponding water consumption rate at the current moment, and then input the current total plant load to calculate the net inflow.

[0032] 5. Time entry module: Automatically calculate the water level change curve after the current moment.

[0033] Example 2 Query the current water level through the reservoir capacity curve of the hydropower station The corresponding reservoir capacity , and the reservoir capacity corresponding to a 1-meter rise in the current water level , in order to - = , if the amount of water required for a 1-meter rise in the water level is all completed within 1 hour for the water level to rise, then the corresponding flow rate is: = ÷(1×60×60)= billion ( / s)= ( / s)→ =Flow rate for a 1-cm rise in 1 hour = ( / s), the net inflow =Inflow -Outflow , where the outflow =Actual load (i.e., the load after the accident action of cutting off the generator set) × Water consumption rate at the accident moment, then The water level amplitude corresponding after hours =( / )× (unit: cm), The reservoir water level after = +0.01 (unit: m).

[0034] At the same time, it is also possible to calculate the time required from the current water level to the limited water level according to the limited water level , that is , - = , 100 ÷( / )= .

[0035] ​In the above method, after the accident occurs, the total plant load (10,000 kW) and the water level (predicted n hours later) are input, and the automatic calculation is clicked. The system will automatically call the water level, inflow, and reservoir water consumption rate data at the corresponding moment based on the calculation moment, and call the corresponding reservoir capacity and the reservoir capacity corresponding to the water level 1 meter above the water level at the calculation moment according to the reservoir capacity curve, and automatically calculate the difference between the two reservoir capacity data to calculate the flow rate corresponding to a 1 cm rise per hour at this moment's water level.

[0036] The net inflow is obtained by subtracting the outflow from the inflow. The ratio of the net inflow to the flow rate corresponding to a 1 cm rise per hour is calculated to obtain the water level data cm rising per hour, and the water level change range (0.01) m and water level of the reservoir after n hours are automatically predicted and calculated. At the same time, the predicted water levels 1h, 2h, 3h, 4h... later with a 1h span are also automatically generated. At the same time, the time required to reach the limit water level can also be predicted based on the water level boundary, and the principle is the same as above.

[0037] It eliminates the cumbersome process of current manual calculation, reduces the probability of calculation errors, reduces the dispatching risk of incorrect water level pre-judgment, and improves the work efficiency of the duty officers during accident handling.

[0038] It has the ability to accurately predict the change of the reservoir water level during accident handling; predict the time limit from the current water level to the limit water level; improve the prediction accuracy and precision of the reservoir water level change range, and improve the work efficiency.

[0039] The above embodiments are only the preferred technical solutions of the present invention and should not be regarded as limitations on the present invention. The embodiments in this application and the features in the embodiments can be arbitrarily combined with each other without conflict. The protection scope of the present invention should be the technical solutions recorded in the claims, including the equivalent replacement solutions of the technical features in the technical solutions recorded in the claims. That is, the equivalent replacement improvements within this scope are also within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting reservoir water level fluctuations during accident handling, characterized by: It includes a fluctuation prediction system, which includes a water level-reservoir capacity curve query system, a reservoir capacity automatic calculation system, a flow calculation system, a net inflow flow calculation module and a time entry module; The water level fluctuation prediction method includes the following steps: S1, automatically calling the relevant data at the time when the calculation starts; S2, automatic query and forecast of incoming traffic ; S3, automatically query and calculate the water consumption rate δ of the whole plant; S4, automatically query and calculate the current water level according to the current water level The flow rate required to rise 1cm per hour ; S5, input the active power of the whole plant after the accident or accident loss load ; S6, input predicted time ; S7, calculate the outbound flow of the whole plant: = δ; S8, calculate the net inflow: = — S9, calculate the water level fluctuation according to the net inflow: =( / )× S10, Water level after hours: 0.01 + = S11, automatic calculation =1h, 2h, 3h...After water level: 0.01×( / )× + .

2. The method for predicting reservoir water level fluctuations during accident handling according to claim 1 is characterized by: In S1, the calling system time is automatically detected and the corresponding data is called according to the time.

3. The method for predicting reservoir water level fluctuations during accident handling according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In S2, according to the time retrieved in S1, the inbound flow is retrieved according to the corresponding time .

4. The method for predicting reservoir water level fluctuation during accident handling according to claim 1 is characterized by: In S3, according to the time retrieved in S1, the average water consumption rate δ of the whole plant is calculated according to the corresponding time query.

5. The method for predicting reservoir water level fluctuations during accident handling according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In S4, the current water level is queried through the hydropower station storage capacity curve Corresponding storage capacity , and the current water level rises by 1 meter The corresponding storage capacity ,by - = , if the water level rises by 1 meter, the amount of water required If the water level rise is completed within 1 hour, the corresponding flow rate is: = ÷(1×60×60)= 100 million( / s) = ( / s) → =1cm flow rate rises in 1 hour= ( / s).

6. The method for predicting reservoir water level fluctuations during accident handling according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In S7 and S8, the average water consumption rate δ is multiplied by the active power of the whole plant. The outbound flow can be obtained ; The net inflow is obtained by subtracting the outflow from the inflow. .

7. The method for predicting reservoir water level fluctuations during accident handling according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In S9, the net inflow is compared with the flow required to increase the water level by 1 cm per hour. It can be known how many centimeters the water level will rise per hour under the current net inflow. Multiplying it by the time n, the water level will rise after n hours. .

8. The method for predicting reservoir water level fluctuations during accident handling according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In S10 and S11, the initial water level of the reservoir plus the water level that rises after n hours , and the final water level of the reservoir can be obtained; at the same time, the water level 1 hour, 2 hours, 3 hours... after that moment can also be automatically calculated.

9. The method for predicting reservoir water level fluctuations during accident handling according to claim 1 is characterized by: The water level-reservoir capacity curve query system automatically retrieves the current water level data of the water regulation automation system and queries the corresponding reservoir capacity based on the current time; the reservoir capacity automatic calculation system queries the corresponding reservoir capacity through the current water level rise in meters, and automatically calculates the reservoir capacity change.

10. The method for predicting reservoir water level fluctuations during accident handling according to claim 1 is characterized in that: flow The calculation system automatically calculates the corresponding flow through the change in storage capacity; the net inflow flow calculation module calls the corresponding inflow flow data at the current moment and the corresponding water consumption rate at the current moment, and then inputs the current plant load to calculate the net inflow flow; the time entry module automatically calculates the water level change curve after the current moment.

Images