Ignition probability calculation method and system

Abstract

The invention provides an ignition probability calculation method and system, relates to the technical field of safety risk assessment in the process industry, and obtains an ignition probability comprehensive value by using the method through obtained production data, factory layout, quantitative simulation output data and management data. And determining a basic value of the ignition probability according to the production data and the quantitative simulation output data. And constructing an ignition source management coefficient matrix according to the management data, and obtaining a correction criterion in combination with an effectiveness judgment result of the ignition source management measures. And finally, the final ignition probability is calculated in combination with the ignition probability basic value and the correction criterion. The method can effectively integrate the physical property of the leakage medium and the ignition source management level of an enterprise, is suitable for ignition probability calculation in actual production, and is convenient to popularize and apply. The method comprehensively considers the multi-dimensional elements influencing the ignition probability, so that the calculated value is closer to reality, the accuracy is improved, and the production safety of enterprises is guaranteed.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of safety risk assessment in the process industry, and particularly to a method and system for calculating ignition probability. Background Art

[0002] Currently, the calculation software related to ignition probability used in China depends on foreign standards, and the calculation results have a low adaptability to domestic application scenarios. Moreover, the influence of management factors on ignition probability is not considered, resulting in a large deviation between the theoretical calculation results and the actual situation. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a method for calculating ignition probability suitable for the actual management status of factories to meet the actual use requirements.

[0003] In the prior art, although the invention patent with the patent number CN202010365671.3 provides a method for real-time intervention simulation of disaster accidents, it cannot solve the problem that the calculation results of ignition probability do not match the actual situation and cannot meet the actual needs. Summary of the Invention

[0004] In order to overcome the deficiencies of the prior art, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and system for calculating ignition probability, which can improve the calculation accuracy.

[0005] To achieve the above purpose, the present invention provides the following solutions:

[0006] A method for calculating ignition probability includes:

[0007] Obtain production data, factory layout, quantitative simulation output data, and management data; the quantitative simulation output data includes the leakage area, leakage radius, and the area of the leakage area; the management data includes the ignition source management system and the types of ignition sources;

[0008] Determine the basic value of ignition probability according to the production data and the quantitative simulation output data;

[0009] Construct an ignition source management coefficient matrix according to the management data; the horizontal and vertical axes of the ignition source management coefficient matrix are the types of ignition sources and ignition source management measures respectively;

[0010] Judge the effectiveness of the ignition source management measures according to the leakage area and the factory layout, and determine the correction criterion based on the judgment result;

[0011] Calculate the final ignition probability according to the basic value of ignition probability and the correction criterion.

[0012] Preferably, the production data includes: leakage rate at the time of material leakage, type of leakage medium, material leakage state, temperature of the leakage medium, temperature of the production environment, minimum ignition energy of the leakage medium, ignition source intensity, ignition source appearance time value, and leakage aperture; wherein, the leakage rate at the time of material leakage, the material leakage state, and the temperature of the production environment are used to calculate the leakage area and the area of the leakage area.

[0013] Preferably, determining a basic ignition probability value according to the production data and the quantitative simulation output data includes:

[0014] When the material leakage state is liquid and the temperature of the leakage medium is higher than the autoignition point of the medium, if the leakage medium is C 6 ~C 25 +, then determine the basic ignition probability value as 1; if the medium is styrene, determine the basic ignition probability value as 1;

[0015] When the material leakage state is gaseous and the temperature of the leakage medium is higher than the autoignition point of the medium, if the leakage medium is C 1 ~C 12 , then determine the basic ignition probability value as 0.7; if the medium is styrene, determine the basic ignition probability value as 1; if the medium is hydrogen or hydrogen sulfide, determine the basic ignition probability value as 0.9;

[0016] When the material leakage state is liquid and the temperature of the leakage medium is lower than the autoignition point of the medium, if the leakage medium is C 5 ~C 8 or ethanol, ethylene glycol, ethylene oxide, styrene, then determine the basic ignition probability value as 0.1; if the medium is C 9 ~C 16 , determine the basic ignition probability value as 0.05, if the leakage medium is C 17 ~C 25 +, determine the basic ignition probability value as 0.02, if the leakage medium is methanol and propylene oxide, determine the basic ignition probability value as 0.4, if the leakage medium is ether, determine the basic ignition probability value as 1;

[0017] When the material leakage state is gaseous and the temperature of the leakage medium is lower than the autoignition point of the medium, if the leakage medium is C 1 ~C 2 , then determine the basic ignition probability value as 0.2; if the leakage medium is C 3 ~C 8 or ethanol, ethylene glycol, ethylene oxide, styrene, then determine the basic ignition probability value as 0.1; if the medium is C 9 ~C 12, the basic ignition probability value is determined to be 0.05; if the medium is hydrogen, hydrogen sulfide, carbon monoxide, ether, or ethylene oxide, the basic ignition probability value is determined to be 0.9, and if the leaked medium is methanol or propylene oxide, the basic ignition probability value is determined to be 0.4.

[0018] Preferably, determining the basic ignition probability value according to the production data and the quantitative simulation output data includes:

[0019] Calculating the immediate ignition probability according to the electrostatic ignition probability and the spontaneous ignition probability of the leaked substance; the calculation formula for the immediate ignition probability is: POII = P ai +(1 - P ai ) * P 静电 ; where, POII is the immediate ignition probability, P 静电 is the probability of immediate ignition caused by static electricity, P 静电 = 0.003 * p 1 / 3 *MIE -0.6 , p is the medium transportation pressure, P ai is the probability of immediate ignition caused by spontaneous combustion, MIE is the minimum ignition energy of the leaked medium,

[0021] the temperature of the leaked medium;

[0022] Calculating the delayed ignition probability according to the ignition source intensity and the leakage aperture; the calculation formula for the delayed ignition probability is: PODI = PODI S / D *M MAG ; where, PODI is the delayed ignition probability, PODI S / D is the basic value of the delayed ignition probability, PODI S / D = 1 - [(1 - S 2 ) * e -St , S is the ignition source intensity, t is the ignition source appearance time value, M MAG is the correction coefficient of the leakage aperture for the delayed ignition probability. When the material leakage state is liquid, When the material leakage state is gaseous,

[0023] Determining the basic ignition probability value according to the immediate ignition probability and the delayed ignition probability; the calculation formula for the basic ignition probability value is: basic ignition probability value = immediate ignition probability + (1 - immediate ignition probability) * delayed ignition probability.

[0024] Preferably, constructing an ignition source management coefficient matrix according to the management data includes:

[0025] Determining the ignition source types as column item information; the ignition source types include open fire, static electricity, impact spark, and lightning strike;

[0026] Identify the ignition source management measures as line item information;

[0027] Construct a statistical table based on the column item information and the line item information to obtain the ignition source management coefficient matrix.

[0028] Preferably, judge the effectiveness of the ignition source management measures according to the leakage area and the plant layout, and determine the correction criterion based on the judgment result, including:

[0029] Judge whether the management scope of the ignition source management measures for a certain type of ignition source in the plant layout is larger than the leakage area. If so, determine that the judgment result is that the ignition source management measures are effective, and record one type of the ignition source as 1 point; if not, determine that the judgment result is that the ignition source management measures are ineffective, and record one type of the ignition source as 0 point;

[0030] Multiply all the scores of one type of ignition source in the ignition source management coefficient matrix. If the multiplication result is 1, determine that the correction criterion needs to be corrected;

[0031] If the multiplication result is 0, determine that the correction criterion does not need to be corrected.

[0032] Preferably, based on the judgment result, calculate the final ignition probability according to the ignition probability base value and the correction criterion, including:

[0033] If the correction criterion is that correction is needed, correct the ignition probability base value corresponding to the certain type of ignition source to obtain the ignition probability attribute value, and determine the final ignition probability according to the ignition probability attribute value; the calculation formula for the ignition probability attribute value is: FV i =1 - e -S*t *N*X i ; where, FV i is the ignition probability attribute value of the i-th column in the ignition source management coefficient matrix, S is the ignition source intensity, t is the ignition source appearance time value, N is the ignition probability base value, and X i is the ignition source source classification coefficient value of the type corresponding to the i-th column; the calculation formula for the ignition probability is: where, F is the ignition probability, and Z is the number of ignition source types;

[0034] If the correction criterion is determined not to require correction, calculate the ignition probability attribute value according to the ignition probability base value and the ignition source source classification coefficient value, and determine the final ignition probability according to the ignition probability attribute value; the calculation formula for the ignition probability attribute value is: FV i =N*X i .

[0035] An ignition probability calculation system, comprising:

[0036] A data input unit for obtaining production data, factory layout, quantitative simulation output data, and management data; the quantitative simulation output data includes a leakage area, a leakage radius, and the area of the leakage area; the management data includes an ignition source management system and types of ignition sources;

[0037] A basic value determination unit for determining an ignition probability basic value according to the production data and the quantitative simulation output data; or determining an ignition probability basic value according to the factory layout and the quantitative simulation output data;

[0038] An ignition source management coefficient matrix determination unit for constructing an ignition source management coefficient matrix according to the management data; the management data includes an ignition source management system and types of ignition sources; the horizontal and vertical axes of the ignition source management coefficient matrix are types of ignition sources and ignition source management measures respectively;

[0039] An effectiveness judgment unit for judging the effectiveness of an ignition source management measure according to the leakage area and the factory layout, and determining a correction criterion based on the judgment result;

[0040] An ignition probability calculation unit for calculating a final ignition probability according to the ignition probability basic value and the correction criterion.

[0041] According to the specific embodiments provided by the present invention, the present invention discloses the following technical effects:

[0042] The present invention provides an ignition probability calculation method and system. The method includes: obtaining production data, factory layout, quantitative simulation output data, and management data; the quantitative simulation output data includes a leakage area, a leakage radius, and the area of the leakage area; the management data includes an ignition source management system and types of ignition sources; determining an ignition probability basic value according to the production data and the quantitative simulation output data; constructing an ignition source management coefficient matrix according to the management data; the management data includes an ignition source management system and types of ignition sources; the horizontal and vertical axes of the ignition source management coefficient matrix are types of ignition sources and ignition source management measures respectively; judging the effectiveness of an ignition source management measure according to the leakage area and the factory layout, and determining a correction criterion based on the judgment result; calculating a final ignition probability according to the ignition probability basic value and the correction criterion. The present invention can effectively integrate the physical properties of the leaked medium and the enterprise's ignition source management level during the production process, is applicable to the ignition probability calculation in actual production, and is convenient for popularization and application. This method comprehensively considers multi-dimensional factors affecting the ignition probability, making the calculated value closer to the actual situation, improving the accuracy, and ensuring the production safety of the enterprise. Description of the Drawings

[0043] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art, the following will briefly introduce the drawings required in the embodiments. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention. For those of ordinary skill in the art, without creative efforts, other drawings can also be obtained based on these drawings.

[0044] Figure 1 It is a flowchart of the method provided by the embodiment of the present invention;

[0045] Figure 2 It is a schematic structural diagram of the system provided by the embodiment of the present invention. Detailed implementation manners

[0046] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, rather than all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts belong to the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0047] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and system for calculating ignition probability, which can improve the accuracy of calculation.

[0048] To make the above objects, features, and advantages of the present invention more obvious and understandable, the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the drawings and specific implementation manners.

[0049] Figure 1 It is a flowchart of the method provided by the embodiment of the present invention. As Figure 1 shown, the present invention provides a method for calculating ignition probability, including:

[0050] Step 100: Obtain production data, factory layout, quantitative simulation output data, and management data; the quantitative simulation output data includes the leakage area, leakage radius, and the area of the leakage area; the management data includes the ignition source management system and the types of ignition sources;

[0051] Step 200: Determine the basic value of the ignition probability according to the production data and the quantitative simulation output data;

[0052] Step 300: Construct an ignition source management coefficient matrix according to the management data; the management data includes the ignition source management system and the types of ignition sources; the horizontal and vertical axes of the ignition source management coefficient matrix are the types of ignition sources and the ignition source management measures respectively;

[0053] Step 400: Judge the effectiveness of the ignition source management measures according to the leakage area and the factory layout, and determine the correction criterion based on the judgment result;

[0054] Step 500: Calculate the final ignition probability based on the basic ignition probability value and the correction criterion.

[0055] Preferably, the production data includes: the leakage rate when the material leaks, the type of the leaked medium, the state of the material leakage, the temperature of the leaked medium, the temperature of the production environment, the minimum ignition energy of the leaked medium, the intensity of the ignition source, the time value when the ignition source appears, and the leakage aperture; wherein, the leakage rate when the material leaks, the state of the material leakage, and the temperature of the production environment are used to calculate the leakage area and the area of the leakage area.

[0056] Optionally, the basic ignition probability value can be obtained by classification according to the type of the leaked medium, the state of the medium leakage, and the leakage temperature. In this embodiment, when the leakage state of the leaked medium is liquid and the temperature is higher than the AIT (autoignition temperature) of the medium, if the leaked medium is C 6 ~C 25 +, then its ignition probability is equal to 1; if the medium is styrene, its ignition probability is equal to 1. When the leakage state of the leaked medium is gaseous and the temperature is higher than the AIT of the medium, if the leaked medium is C 1 ~C 12 , then its ignition probability is equal to 0.7; if the medium is styrene, its ignition probability is equal to 1; if the medium is hydrogen or hydrogen sulfide, its ignition probability is equal to 0.9. When the leakage state of the leaked medium is liquid and the temperature is lower than the AIT of the medium, if the leaked medium is C 5 ~C 8 or ethanol, ethylene glycol, ethylene oxide, styrene, its ignition probability is equal to 0.1; if the medium is C 9 ~C 16 , its ignition probability is equal to 0.05, if the leaked medium is C 17 ~C 25 +, its ignition probability is equal to 0.02, if the leaked medium is methanol and propylene oxide, its ignition probability is equal to 0.4, if the leaked medium is ether, its ignition probability is equal to 1. When the leakage state of the leaked medium is gaseous and the temperature is lower than the AIT of the medium, if the leaked medium is C 1 ~C 2 , then its ignition probability is equal to 0.2; if the leaked medium is C 3 ~C 8 or ethanol, ethylene glycol, ethylene oxide, styrene, then its ignition probability is equal to 0.1; if the medium is C 9 ~C 12 , its ignition probability is equal to 0.05; if the medium is hydrogen, hydrogen sulfide, carbon monoxide, ether, ethylene oxide, its ignition probability is equal to 0.9, if the leaked medium is methanol and propylene oxide, its ignition probability is equal to 0.4..

[0057] In another specific embodiment, the basic value of the ignition probability can also be calculated according to the minimum ignition energy (MIE), auto-ignition temperature (AIT), ignition source intensity S, and leakage aperture of the leaked substance. The specific steps are as follows:

[0058] Calculate the immediate ignition probability according to the electrostatic ignition probability and auto-ignition probability of the leaked substance; the calculation formula for the immediate ignition probability is: POII = P ai +(1 - P ai ) * P 静电 ; where, POII is the immediate ignition probability, P 静电 is the probability of immediate ignition caused by static electricity, P 静电 = 0.003 * p 1 / 3 * MIE -0.6 , p is the medium conveying pressure, P ai is the probability of immediate ignition caused by auto-ignition, MIE is the minimum ignition energy of the leaked medium, AIT is the auto-ignition temperature, and T is the temperature of the leaked medium;

[0059] Calculate the delayed ignition probability according to the ignition source intensity and leakage aperture; the calculation formula for the delayed ignition probability is: PODI = PODI S / D * M MAG ; where, PODI is the delayed ignition probability, PODI S / D is the basic value of the delayed ignition probability, PODI S / D = 1 - [(1 - S 2 ) * e -St , S is the ignition source intensity, t is the ignition source appearance time value, and M MAG is the correction coefficient of the leakage aperture for the delayed ignition probability. When the material leakage state is liquid, When the material leakage state is gaseous,

[0060] Determine the basic value of the ignition probability according to the immediate ignition probability and the delayed ignition probability; the calculation formula for the basic value of the ignition probability is: basic value of ignition probability = immediate ignition probability + (1 - immediate ignition probability) * delayed ignition probability.

[0061] As an optional implementation manner, this embodiment can also determine the basic value of the ignition probability according to the factory layout and the output data of the quantitative simulation. The specific steps include:

[0062] Analyze according to the factory layout and the area of the leakage area to obtain the number of equipment and the number of employees in the leakage hazard area;

[0063] Classify the equipment in the leakage hazard area to obtain moving equipment and static equipment;

[0064] Calculate the basic value of the ignition probability based on the number of moving equipment, static equipment, and the number of employees. The calculation formula for the basic value of the ignition probability is: Basic value of ignition probability = 0.15 * M + 0.07 * S’ + 0.01 * P; where M and S’ are the numbers of moving equipment and static equipment respectively, and P is the number of employees.

[0065] Specifically, after the area of the leakage area is determined, in this embodiment, it is possible to determine which equipment is in the leakage area according to the process flow chart and the floor plan of the factory. The number of employees needs to be determined according to the personnel inspection points in the factory. If there is an inspection point in the leakage area, then the number of employees is the maximum number of people present during the inspection. If there is no inspection point, the number of employees is 0.

[0066] Furthermore, the moving equipment in this embodiment mainly includes pumps, compressors, etc.; while the static equipment refers to equipment without relative displacement such as valves, pipelines, filters, etc.

[0067] Preferably, construct an ignition source management coefficient matrix based on management data, including:

[0068] Determine the types of ignition sources as column item information; the types of ignition sources include but are not limited to open flames, static electricity, impact sparks, and lightning strikes;

[0069] Determine the ignition source management measures as row item information;

[0070] Construct a statistical table according to the column item information and the row item information to obtain the ignition source management coefficient matrix.

[0071] Preferably, judge the effectiveness of the ignition source management measures based on the leakage area and the factory layout diagram, and determine the correction criterion based on the judgment result, including:

[0072] Judge whether the management scope of the ignition source management measures for a certain type of ignition source in the factory layout diagram is larger than the leakage area. If so, determine that the judgment result is that the ignition source management measures are effective, and record a certain type of ignition source as 1 point; if not, determine that the judgment result is that the ignition source management measures are ineffective, and record a certain type of ignition source as 0 point;

[0073] Multiply all the scores of a certain type of ignition source in the ignition source management coefficient matrix. If the multiplication result is 1, determine that the correction criterion needs to be corrected;

[0074] If the multiplication result is 0, determine that the correction criterion does not need to be corrected.

[0075] Preferably, based on the judgment result, calculate the final ignition probability according to the basic value of the ignition probability and the correction criterion, including:

[0076] If the correction criterion is that correction is required, the ignition probability base value corresponding to the first type of ignition source is corrected to obtain an ignition probability attribute value, and the final ignition probability is determined according to the ignition probability attribute value; the calculation formula for the ignition probability attribute value is: FV i = 1 - e -S*t *N*X i ; where FV i is the ignition probability attribute value of the i-th column in the ignition source management coefficient matrix, S is the ignition source intensity, t is the ignition source occurrence time value, N is the ignition probability base value, and X i is the ignition source source classification coefficient value of the type corresponding to the i-th column; the calculation formula for the ignition probability is: where F is the ignition probability and Z is the number of ignition source types;

[0077] If the correction criterion is determined not to require correction, the ignition probability attribute value is calculated according to the ignition probability base value and the ignition source source classification coefficient value, and the final ignition probability is determined according to the ignition probability attribute value; the calculation formula for the ignition probability attribute value is: FV i = N*X i .

[0078] Specifically, S is the ignition source intensity value, which is determined by looking up a table.

[0079] Optionally, referring to Table 1, as shown in Table 1, A, B, C, and D are respectively represented as: open fire, static electricity, impact spark, and lightning strike. These four situations are the types of ignition sources, which are all the situations that cause danger in the factory. Specifically, for example, when a certain column is selected and all the corresponding management measures are selected, when these management measures are all effective or inapplicable, it means that the on-site management of this type of ignition source is effective. Then, for the ignition probability attribute value of this type of ignition source for the current medium, the calculation formula for the ignition probability attribute value can be determined according to FV i = 1 - e -S*t *N*X i . Again, for example, when at least one management measure in a certain column is ineffective, then this type of ignition source does not need to be corrected. At this time, the calculation formula for the ignition probability attribute value is: FV i = N*X i , and all other columns are calculated in this way.

[0080] Table 1 Ignition Source Management Coefficient Matrix

[0081]

[0082] Finally, in this embodiment, the comprehensive ignition probability value is the superposition of the assignments of all ignition source classification attributes, that is: The calculation method applicable to the domestic ignition probability is obtained through this calculation method, which solves the problem that accurate calculation results cannot be obtained by directly applying foreign database systems. The effective matrix of this ignition probability calculation method corrects the basic value of the ignition probability, making the calculated value of the ignition probability obtained by this method closer to the actual situation.

[0083] In a specific embodiment, as shown in Table 2, an assignment table of classification coefficient values for the source of ignition sources is established according to the types of ignition sources provided by the owner.

[0084] Table 2 Assignment Table of Classification Coefficient Values for the Source of Ignition Sources

[0085] Serial number Category Category Coefficient value 1. Open fire A 0.6 2. Static electricity B 0.2 3. Impact spark C 0.15 4. Lightning strike D 0.05

[0086] An ignition source evaluation matrix is established according to the types of ignition sources provided by the owner and the ignition source management specifications.

[0087] Continuing to refer to Table 1, after correcting the basic value of the ignition probability with the matrix, the attribute ignition value is obtained. When the effectiveness factors of all rows (i.e., all management measures) in a certain column (i.e., a certain ignition source classification) in the table are all effective or inapplicable (such as column C, impact spark), it indicates that the on-site management of such ignition sources is effective. Then, the ignition probability attribute value (denoted by FV) of such ignition sources for the current medium is based on the determined basic value of the ignition probability (denoted by N) multiplied by the coefficient value of such ignition sources. For example, the calculation formula for column C is FV C = N * X C ;

[0088] Through the above calculations, it can be seen that the ignition source management measures are effective for open flames and impact sparks, and ineffective for static electricity and lightning strikes. Therefore, when calculating the correction value, the ignition probabilities of open flames and impact fires are 0.19, and the ignition probabilities of static electricity and lightning strikes are 0.8. After calculation and addition, the final calculation result is obtained. The finally obtained ignition probability correction value is: Z = 0.19 * 0.6 + 0.8 * 0.2 + 0.19 * 0.15 + 0.8 * 0.05 = 0.114 + 0.16 + 0.0285 + 0.04 = 0.3425.

[0089] The accident occurrence area statistical table is shown in Table 3:

[0090] Table 3 Accident Occurrence Area Statistical Table

[0091]

[0092]

[0093] Note: The proportion in the total is the percentage of the total number of accidents.

[0094] The data obtained after correction (34.25%) is closer to the statistical data (42.4%) recorded in a domestic document, and is more convenient for users to analyze compared to quantitative calculations, and is more helpful for factories to reasonably estimate the occurrence probability of serious hazards.

[0095] Furthermore, the common ignition source intensity S of this embodiment is shown in Table 4 as follows:

[0096] Table 4 Common Ignition Source Intensity Table

[0097]

[0098]

[0099] Corresponding to the above method, as Figure 2 shown, this embodiment also provides an ignition probability calculation system, including:

[0100] A data input unit for obtaining production data, factory layout, quantitative simulation output data, and management data; the quantitative simulation output data includes a leakage area, a leakage radius, and the area of the leakage area; the management data includes an ignition source management system and ignition source types;

[0101] A basic value determination unit for determining an ignition probability basic value according to the production data and the quantitative simulation output data;

[0102] An ignition source management coefficient matrix determination unit for constructing an ignition source management coefficient matrix according to the management data; the horizontal and vertical axes of the ignition source management coefficient matrix are ignition source types and ignition source management measures respectively;

[0103] An effectiveness judgment unit for judging the effectiveness of the ignition source management measures according to the leakage area and the factory layout, and determining a correction criterion based on the judgment result;

[0104] An ignition probability calculation unit for calculating the final ignition probability according to the ignition probability basic value and the correction criterion.

[0105] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows:

[0106] The present invention can be corrected during the production process, effectively integrating the physical properties of the leaked medium and the enterprise's ignition source management level, applicable to the calculation of ignition probability in actual production, and the calculation data is easy to obtain and convenient for popularization and use. The calculation scheme for correcting the ignition probability basic value through the ignition source management matrix makes the calculated value of the ignition probability more in line with the actual situation. It improves the calculation accuracy and better guarantees the production safety of the enterprise.

[0107] In the present specification, the various embodiments are described in a progressive manner. Each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments. For the same or similar parts among the various embodiments, reference can be made to each other. For the systems disclosed in the embodiments, since they correspond to the methods disclosed in the embodiments, the description is relatively simple. For the relevant parts, reference can be made to the description in the method section.

[0108] In this article, specific examples are used to elaborate on the principles and implementation manners of the present invention. The descriptions of the above embodiments are only used to help understand the method of the present invention and its core idea. At the same time, for those of ordinary skill in the art, based on the idea of the present invention, there will be changes in the specific implementation manners and application scopes. In summary, the content of this specification should not be construed as a limitation on the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for calculating ignition probability, characterized in that: include: Acquiring production data, factory layout, quantitative simulation output data and management data; the quantitative simulation output data includes leakage area, leakage radius and area of ​​the leakage area; the management data includes ignition source management system and ignition source type; Determine an ignition probability base value based on the production data and the quantitative simulation output data; Constructing an ignition source management coefficient matrix according to the management data; The horizontal and vertical axes of the ignition source management coefficient matrix are the types of ignition sources and the ignition source management measures respectively; Determining the effectiveness of the ignition source management measures according to the leakage area and the factory layout, and determining a correction criterion based on the determination result; The final ignition probability is calculated according to the ignition probability base value and the correction criterion.

2. The ignition probability calculation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The production data includes: leakage rate when the material leaks, type of leakage medium, material leakage status, leakage medium temperature, production environment temperature, minimum ignition energy of the leakage medium, ignition source intensity, ignition source appearance time value and leakage aperture; wherein, the leakage rate when the material leaks, the material leakage status and the production environment temperature are used to calculate the leakage area and the area of ​​the leakage area.

3. The ignition probability calculation method according to claim 2, characterized in that: Determining the ignition probability base value according to the production data and the quantitative simulation output data includes: When the material is in liquid state and the temperature of the leaking medium is higher than the auto-ignition point of the medium, if the leaking medium is C6~C 25 +, the ignition probability base value is determined to be 1; if the medium is styrene, the ignition probability base value is determined to be 1; When the material leaks in gaseous state and the temperature of the leaking medium is higher than the auto-ignition point of the medium, if the leaking medium is C1~C 12 , the basic value of ignition probability is determined to be 0.7; if the medium is styrene, the basic value of ignition probability is determined to be 1; if the medium is hydrogen or hydrogen sulfide, the basic value of ignition probability is determined to be 0.9; When the material leakage state is liquid and the temperature of the leakage medium is lower than the auto-ignition point of the medium, if the leakage medium is C5-C8 or ethanol, ethylene glycol, ethylene oxide, styrene, the ignition probability basic value is determined to be 0.1; if the medium is C9-C 16 , the ignition probability base value is determined to be 0.

05. If the leaking medium is C 17 ~C 25 +, the basic value of ignition probability is determined to be 0.

02. If the leakage medium is methanol and propylene oxide, the basic value of ignition probability is determined to be 0.

4. If the leakage medium is ether, the basic value of ignition probability is determined to be 1; When the material leakage state is gaseous and the temperature of the leakage medium is lower than the auto-ignition point of the medium, if the leakage medium is C1-C2, the basic value of the ignition probability is determined to be 0.2; if the leakage medium is C3-C8 or ethanol, ethylene glycol, ethylene oxide, styrene, the basic value of the ignition probability is determined to be 0.1; if the medium is C9-C 12 , the basic value of ignition probability is determined to be 0.05; if the medium is hydrogen, hydrogen sulfide, carbon monoxide, ether, or ethylene oxide, the basic value of ignition probability is determined to be 0.9; if the leakage medium is methanol or propylene oxide, the basic value of ignition probability is determined to be 0.

4.

4. The ignition probability calculation method according to claim 2, characterized in that: Determining the ignition probability base value according to the production data and the quantitative simulation output data includes: The probability of immediate ignition is calculated based on the electrostatic ignition probability and the spontaneous ignition probability of the leaked material; the calculation formula for the probability of immediate ignition is: POII = P ai +(1-P ai )*P 静电 ; Among them, POII is the probability of immediate ignition, P 静电 is the probability of immediate ignition due to static electricity, P 静电 =0.003*p 1 / 3 *MIE -0.6 , p is the medium delivery pressure, P ai is the probability of immediate ignition due to spontaneous combustion, MIE is the minimum ignition energy of the leaking medium, AIT is the autoignition point, T is the temperature of the leaking medium; The delayed ignition probability is calculated based on the ignition source intensity and the leakage aperture; the calculation formula of the delayed ignition probability is: PODI = PODI S / D *M MAG ; Among them, PODI is the probability of delayed ignition, PODI S / D is the basic value of the probability of delayed ignition, PODI S / D =1-[(1-S 2 )*e -St ], S is the ignition source intensity, t is the ignition source appearance time value, M MAG is the correction coefficient of the leakage aperture to the delayed ignition probability. When the material leakage state is liquid, When the material leaks in gaseous state, An ignition probability base value is determined according to the immediate ignition probability and the delayed ignition probability; the calculation formula of the ignition probability base value is: ignition probability base value=immediate ignition probability+(1-immediate ignition probability)*delayed ignition probability.

5. The ignition probability calculation method according to claim 2, characterized in that: Construct the ignition source management coefficient matrix based on the management data, including: Determine the type of ignition source as column item information; the type of ignition source includes open flame, static electricity, impact spark and lightning strike; Determine the ignition source management measures as line item information; A statistical table is constructed according to the column item information and the row item information to obtain the ignition source management coefficient matrix.

6. The ignition probability calculation method according to claim 5, characterized in that: The effectiveness of the ignition source management measures is determined based on the leakage area and the factory layout, and the correction criteria are determined based on the judgment results, including: Determine whether the management scope of the ignition source management measure for a type of ignition source in the factory layout is larger than the leakage area; if so, determine the ignition source management measure to be effective, and score 1 point for the type of ignition source; if not, determine the ignition source management measure to be ineffective, and score 0 point for the type of ignition source; Multiplying all the scores of a type of the ignition source in the ignition source management coefficient matrix, and if the multiplication result is 1, determining that the correction criterion needs to be corrected; If the multiplication result is 0, the correction criterion is determined to be unnecessary.

7. The ignition probability calculation method according to claim 6, characterized in that: Based on the judgment result, the final ignition probability is calculated according to the ignition probability base value and the correction criterion, including: If the correction criterion is that correction is required, the ignition probability base value corresponding to the ignition source of the type is corrected to obtain an ignition probability attribute value, and the final ignition probability is determined according to the ignition probability attribute value; the calculation formula of the ignition probability attribute value is: FV i =1-e -S*t *N*X i Among them, FV i is the ignition probability attribute value of the i-th column in the ignition source management coefficient matrix, S is the ignition source intensity, t is the ignition source appearance time value, N is the ignition probability basic value, X i is the ignition source classification coefficient value of the type corresponding to the i-th column; the calculation formula of the ignition probability is: Wherein, F is the ignition probability, and Z is the number of ignition source types; If the correction criterion determines that no correction is required, the ignition probability attribute value is calculated according to the ignition probability base value and the ignition source classification coefficient value, and the final ignition probability is determined according to the ignition probability attribute value; the calculation formula of the ignition probability attribute value is: FV i =N*X i .

8. An ignition probability calculation system, characterized in that: include: A data input unit, used to obtain production data, factory layout, quantitative simulation output data and management data; the quantitative simulation output data includes leakage area, leakage radius and area of ​​the leakage area; the management data includes ignition source management system and ignition source type; A basic value determination unit, used to determine an ignition probability basic value according to the production data and the quantitative simulation output data; An ignition source management coefficient matrix determination unit is used to construct an ignition source management coefficient matrix according to management data; the management data includes an ignition source management system and an ignition source type; The horizontal and vertical axes of the ignition source management coefficient matrix are the types of ignition sources and the ignition source management measures respectively; An effectiveness judgment unit, used to judge the effectiveness of the ignition source management measures according to the leakage area and the factory layout, and determine a correction criterion based on the judgment result; The ignition probability calculation unit calculates a final ignition probability according to the ignition probability base value and the correction criterion.

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