Natural gas consumption demand analysis method and system for oil refining and chemical industry enterprises

Abstract

The invention relates to a natural gas consumption demand analysis method and system for oil refining and chemical enterprises, and the method comprises the following steps: obtaining data information of production materials of the oil refining and chemical enterprises in a target time period, the production materials comprising production raw materials and products; constructing a first fitting relational expression between the quantity of the production materials and the demand quantity of the natural gas; and performing calculation based on the data information of the production materials and the first fitting relational expression to obtain a predicted value of the natural gas demand quantity of the refinery enterprise in the target time period. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring data information of production materials of a refinery enterprise in a target time period; and according to the data information of the production materials, the predicted value of the natural gas demand quantity of the refinery enterprise in the target time period is obtained by utilizing the established first fitting relational expression between the quantity of the production materials and the natural gas demand quantity, so that the natural gas demand in the oil refining and chemical process can be accurately and conveniently predicted.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of oil refining and chemical engineering, and particularly relates to a method and system for analyzing the natural gas consumption demand of oil refining and chemical enterprises. Background Art

[0002] Studying the analysis and prediction of natural gas demand in the oil refining and chemical process helps to achieve the balance between natural gas supply and demand, improve energy utilization efficiency, support marketing business decisions, and optimize energy planning, which is of great significance for promoting the sustainable development and energy security of the oil refining and chemical industry.

[0003] In order to accurately analyze and predict the natural gas demand in the oil refining and chemical process, complex mathematical models need to be established. Since the oil refining and chemical process is a complex non-linear system, the refining process involves multiple links and parameters, and it is challenging to establish a natural gas consumption model. Moreover, these models usually require a large amount of calculation and data processing, with a large amount of calculation and high requirements for calculation technology.

[0004] Therefore, it is necessary to provide a new method and system for analyzing the natural gas consumption demand of oil refining and chemical enterprises to solve the above technical problems. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method and system for analyzing the natural gas consumption demand of oil refining and chemical enterprises to solve the above problems.

[0006] The present invention achieves the above purpose through the following technical solutions:

[0007] A method for analyzing the natural gas consumption demand of an oil refining and chemical enterprise includes the following steps:

[0008] Obtain the data information of production materials of a refining enterprise within a target time period, where the production materials include production raw materials and products;

[0009] Construct a first fitting relationship between the quantity of production materials and the natural gas demand;

[0010] Based on the data information of the production materials and the first fitting relationship, perform calculations to obtain the predicted value of the natural gas demand of the refining enterprise within the target time period.

[0011] As a further optimized solution of the present invention, the derivation process of constructing the first fitting relationship between the quantity of production materials and the natural gas demand is as follows:

[0012] Obtain the natural gas consumption data information of each production link of the refining enterprise that consumes natural gas;

[0013] Determine a second fitting relationship between the natural gas consumption factor and the production materials in the production process according to the natural gas consumption data information;

[0014] Determine a third fitting relationship between the natural gas consumption factor and the natural gas demand in the production process according to the natural gas consumption data information;

[0015] Obtain a fitting relationship between the natural gas demand and the production materials in the production process according to the second fitting relationship and the third fitting relationship;

[0016] Obtain the first fitting relationship according to the fitting relationships between the natural gas demands and the production materials in all production processes that consume natural gas.

[0017] As a further optimization scheme of the present invention, the production process that consumes natural gas is the hydrogen production process, the natural gas consumption factor is the target hydrogen production amount, and the natural gas consumption data information is the hydrogen production and consumption balance data; wherein, the target hydrogen production amount is the quantity of hydrogen that needs to consume natural gas for production;

[0018] Obtain the fitting relationship between the natural gas demand and the production materials in the production process in the following manner:

[0019] Obtain the hydrogen production and consumption balance data of the hydrogen production process;

[0020] Determine a second fitting relationship between the target hydrogen production amount and the production materials in the hydrogen production process according to the hydrogen production and consumption balance data;

[0021] Determine a third fitting relationship between the target hydrogen production amount and the natural gas demand in the hydrogen production process according to the hydrogen production and consumption balance data;

[0022] Obtain a fitting relationship between the natural gas demand and the production materials in the hydrogen production process according to the second fitting relationship and the third fitting relationship.

[0023] As a further optimization scheme of the present invention, the step of determining a second fitting relationship between the target hydrogen production amount and the production materials in the hydrogen production process according to the hydrogen production and consumption balance data includes:

[0024] Determine a fourth fitting relationship between the quantity of the production materials and the hydrogen consumption according to the hydrogen production and consumption balance data;

[0025] Determine a fifth fitting relationship between the quantity of the production materials and the by-product hydrogen amount during the processing of the production materials according to the hydrogen production and consumption balance data;

[0026] Determine a second fitting relationship between the target hydrogen production amount and the production materials according to the fourth fitting relationship and the fifth fitting relationship.

[0027] As a further optimization scheme of the present invention, the determining the fifth fitting relationship between the quantity of the production materials and the by-product hydrogen amount during the processing of the production materials includes:

[0028] Determine a sixth fitting relationship between the first hydrogen production amount in the hydrogen-rich recovery link and the production materials;

[0029] Determine a seventh fitting relationship between the second hydrogen production amount in the steam reforming link and the production materials;

[0030] Establish the fifth fitting relationship according to the sixth fitting relationship and the seventh fitting relationship.

[0031] As a further optimization scheme of the present invention, the production link consuming natural gas is the combustion link, the natural gas consumption factor is the fuel gas demand, and the natural gas consumption data information is the fuel gas production and consumption balance data;

[0032] Obtain the fitting relationship between the natural gas demand of the production link and the production materials through the following method:

[0033] Obtain the fuel gas production and consumption balance data of the combustion link;

[0034] Determine a second fitting relationship between the fuel gas demand and the production materials according to the fuel gas production and consumption balance data;

[0035] Determine a third fitting relationship between the fuel gas production amount of the combustion link and the natural gas demand according to the fuel gas production and consumption balance data;

[0036] Obtain the fitting relationship between the natural gas demand of the combustion link and the production materials according to the second fitting relationship and the third fitting relationship.

[0037] A method for analyzing the natural gas consumption demand of a refinery and chemical enterprise further includes using a preset machine learning model to correct the first fitting relationship.

[0038] A system for analyzing the natural gas consumption demand of a refinery and chemical enterprise includes:

[0039] A data acquisition module for acquiring data information of production materials of a refining enterprise during a target time period, where the production materials include production raw materials and products;

[0040] A relationship construction module for constructing a first fitting relationship between the quantity of production materials and the natural gas demand;

[0041] A prediction module, configured to perform calculations based on the data information of the production materials and the first fitting relationship, so as to obtain a predicted value of the natural gas demand of the refining and chemical enterprise within the target time period.

[0042] An electronic device includes a processor, a communication interface, a memory, and a communication bus. Among them, the processor, the communication interface, and the memory complete communication with each other through the communication bus;

[0043] The memory is used to store computer programs;

[0044] The processor is configured to implement the natural gas consumption demand analysis method of the refining and chemical enterprise when executing the programs stored in the memory.

[0045] A computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the natural gas consumption demand analysis method of the refining and chemical enterprise is implemented.

[0046] The beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows:

[0047] The present invention obtains the data information of the production materials of the refining and chemical enterprise within the target time period; according to the data information of the production materials, using the established first fitting relationship between the quantity of the production materials and the natural gas demand, the predicted value of the natural gas demand of the refining and chemical enterprise within the target time period is obtained, so that the natural gas demand in the refining and chemical process can be accurately and conveniently predicted. Description of the Drawings

[0048] Figure 1 It is a method flow chart of the natural gas consumption demand analysis method of the refining and chemical enterprise in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0049] Figure 2 It is an exemplary flow chart of the method for establishing the first fitting relationship between the quantity of production materials and the natural gas demand in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0050] Figure 3 It is an exemplary flow chart of the method for obtaining the fitting relationship between the natural gas demand and the production materials in the hydrogen production link in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0051] Figure 4 It is an exemplary flow chart of the method for obtaining the fitting relationship between the natural gas demand and the production materials in the combustion link in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0052] Figure 5 It is an exemplary schematic diagram of the refining and chemical process in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0053] Figure 6It is an exemplary schematic diagram of the process for obtaining the fitting formula of the hydrogen production natural gas demand in the hydrogen production link of the embodiment of the present invention;

[0054] Figure 7 It is an exemplary schematic diagram of the hydrogen production process flow and the hydrogen consumption process flow in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0055] Figure 8 It is an exemplary schematic diagram of the usage amounts of the raw materials of hydrogen production device 1 and hydrogen production device 2 in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0056] Figure 9 It is an exemplary schematic diagram of the process for obtaining the fitting formula of the natural gas combustion demand in the combustion link of the embodiment of the present invention;

[0057] Figure 10 It is an exemplary schematic diagram of the production-consumption balance analysis in the combustion link of the embodiment of the present invention;

[0058] Figure 11 It is an exemplary schematic diagram of the natural gas consumption demand analysis system of a refinery and chemical enterprise in the embodiment of the present invention;

[0059] Figure 12 It is an exemplary structural schematic diagram of an electronic device in the embodiment of the present invention. Detailed implementation manners

[0060] The following further describes the present application in detail with reference to the drawings. It is necessary to point out here that the following detailed implementation manners are only used to further illustrate the present application and cannot be understood as limiting the protection scope of the present application. Those skilled in the art can make some non-essential improvements and adjustments to the present application according to the above application content.

[0061] As Figure 1 shown, a method for analyzing the natural gas consumption demand of a refinery and chemical enterprise includes the following steps: obtaining the data information of the production materials of the refining enterprise in the target time period, where the production materials include production raw materials and products;

[0062] Constructing a first fitting relationship between the quantity of production materials and the natural gas demand;

[0063] Calculating based on the data information of the production materials and the first fitting relationship to obtain the predicted value of the natural gas demand of the refining enterprise in the target time period.

[0064] In this embodiment, further, the specific steps of the present invention are as follows:

[0065] Step S110, obtaining the data information of the production materials of the refining enterprise in the target time period.

[0066] The target time period can be a certain future time period. For example, if the current time is June 2023, the target time period can be July 2023, or the third quarter of 2023, etc.

[0067] Production materials can include, but are not limited to: raw materials such as crude oil, diesel, and marine fuel oil that refineries need to process.

[0068] Merely as an example, data information such as the crude oil, diesel, and marine fuel oil that Refinery A needs to process in the third quarter can be obtained.

[0069] Step S120: According to the data information of the production materials, use the established first fitting relationship between the quantity of production materials and the natural gas demand to obtain the predicted value of the natural gas demand of the refinery during the target time period.

[0070] Production materials include production raw materials (such as crude oil) and products (such as marine fuel oil, diesel, transformer oil, gasoline, and diesel, etc.).

[0071] For the first fitting relationship between the quantity of production materials and the natural gas demand, the natural gas demand is used as the dependent variable and the quantity of production materials is used as the independent variable. In the specific implementation process, the first fitting relationship can be a linear equation with multiple variables or a polynomial equation with multiple variables, which is not limited by the description in this specification.

[0072] Merely as an example, the first fitting relationship for Refinery A can be as follows:

[0073] Natural gas demand = 0.44862 + 3.08539 * crude oil processing volume + -1.85572 * gasoline production volume + -0.83946 * diesel production volume + -0.51887 * kerosene production volume + -0.31812 * externally purchased steam volume + -0.20127 * sum of average temperatures + 0.14636 * natural gas contract volume.

[0074] In the specific implementation process, the data information of the production materials can be input into the above first fitting relationship to obtain the predicted value of the natural gas demand of the refinery during the target time period.

[0075] Regarding the acquisition method of the first fitting relationship, refer to Figure 2 the relevant content therein, which will not be elaborated here.

[0076] Figure 2 is an exemplary flowchart of the method for establishing the first fitting relationship between the quantity of production materials and the natural gas demand according to some embodiments of the present application.

[0077] As Figure 2As shown in the figure, for each natural gas-consuming production link in a refining and chemical enterprise, the following steps are executed:

[0078] Step S210: Obtain the natural gas consumption data information of the production link.

[0079] The natural gas consumption data is the relevant data information related to the natural gas consumption volume, and the natural gas consumption data of different production links is different.

[0080] Only as an example, as Figure 5 shown in the figure, in the refining and chemical process, natural gas is consumed in the hydrogen production link and the combustion link, and the natural gas consumption data information of the hydrogen production link and the combustion link can be obtained.

[0081] Step S220: Determine the second fitting relationship between the natural gas consumption factor of the production link and the production materials according to the natural gas consumption data information.

[0082] The second fitting relationship is used to represent the correlation between the natural gas consumption factor (for example, hydrogen that needs to consume natural gas for production) and the production materials.

[0083] In different production links, the methods for obtaining the second fitting relationship between the natural gas consumption factor and the production materials are also different.

[0084] For a detailed description of the second fitting relationship of the hydrogen production link, see the relevant content in Figure 3 and will not be elaborated here.

[0085] For a detailed description of the second fitting relationship of the combustion link, see the relevant content in Figure 4 and will not be elaborated here.

[0086] Step S230: Determine the third fitting relationship between the natural gas consumption factor of the production link and the natural gas demand according to the natural gas consumption data information.

[0087] In different production links, the methods for obtaining the third fitting relationship between the natural gas consumption factor of the production link and the natural gas demand are also different.

[0088] For the third fitting relationship of the hydrogen production link, see the relevant content in Figure 3 and will not be elaborated here.

[0089] For the third fitting relationship of the combustion link, see the relevant content in Figure 4 and will not be elaborated here.

[0090] Step S240: Obtain the fitting relationship between the natural gas demand of the production link and the production materials according to the second fitting relationship and the third fitting relationship.

[0091] In the specific implementation process, the second fitting relationship and the third fitting relationship can be combined to obtain the fitting relationship between the natural gas demand and the production materials in this production link.

[0092] In different production links, the methods of obtaining the fitting relationship between natural gas demand and production materials are also different.

[0093] For the fitted relationship between the natural gas demand and production materials in the hydrogen production process, see Figure 3 The relevant content in will not be repeated here.

[0094] For the fitted relationship between the natural gas demand and production materials in the combustion stage, see Figure 4 The relevant content in will not be repeated here.

[0095] Step S250, obtaining a first fitting relationship equation based on the fitting relationship equations between the natural gas demand and production materials of all production links consuming natural gas.

[0096] In the specific implementation process, after obtaining the fitting relationship between the natural gas demand and the production materials in each production link consuming natural gas, the fitting relationship between all the natural gas demand and the production materials can be combined to obtain the first fitting relationship.

[0097] As an example only, the fitting relationship between the natural gas demand and production materials in the hydrogen production process is as follows:

[0098] Natural gas demand = -0.01838+0.60040*crude oil processing volume-0.32702*marine fuel oil-0.07239*diesel+0.24229*diesel secondary processing volume operation days+0.31723*transformer oil+0.05549*petroleum asphalt.

[0099] The fitting relationship between the natural gas demand in the combustion stage and the production materials is as follows:

[0100] Natural gas demand = 0.44862 + 3.08539 * crude oil processing volume + -1.85572 * gasoline production + -0.83946 * diesel production + -0.51887 * kerosene production + -0.31812 * steam purchase volume + -0.20127 * average temperature sum + 0.14636 * natural gas contract volume.

[0101] In some embodiments, the first fitting relationship is modified using a preset machine learning model to obtain a fitting relationship with better fitting effect.

[0102] The preset machine learning models may include, but are not limited to, models such as xgboost, random forest, lasso, etc.

[0103] In the embodiments provided by this application, as Figure 6 and Figure 9 shown, for each production link that consumes natural gas in a refining and chemical enterprise, by using the material balance and energy conservation relationships, according to the natural gas consumption data information, a second fitting relationship between the natural gas consumption factors and the production materials in the production link is determined; according to the natural gas consumption data information, a third fitting relationship between the natural gas consumption factors and the natural gas demand in the production link is determined; according to the second fitting relationship and the third fitting relationship, a fitting relationship between the natural gas demand and the production materials in the production link is obtained; according to the fitting relationships between the natural gas demand and the production materials in all production links that consume natural gas, a first fitting relationship between the natural gas demand and the production materials is obtained. Since the production links that consume natural gas in the refining process (such as the hydrogen production process and the combustion process, etc.) are regarded as independent processes, and combined with the material balance and energy conservation relationships, the key factors affecting natural gas consumption can be accurately determined, the fitting relationship obtained can be used to accurately and conveniently predict the natural gas consumption, and through mechanism research and actual data fitting, the embodiments of this application can provide a relationship curve or equation between natural gas consumption and various influencing factors, and the refining and chemical enterprise can better understand the reasons for the change of natural gas consumption and provide a basis for further optimization and adjustment.

[0104] Figure 3 is an exemplary flowchart of a method for obtaining a fitting relationship between the natural gas demand and the production materials in the hydrogen production link shown in some embodiments of this application.

[0105] In this embodiment, the production link that consumes natural gas is the hydrogen production link, the natural gas consumption factor is the target hydrogen production volume, and the natural gas consumption data information is the hydrogen production and consumption balance data; wherein, the target hydrogen production volume is the quantity of hydrogen that needs to consume natural gas for production.

[0106] As Figure 3 shown, the fitting relationship between the natural gas demand and the production materials in the production link can be obtained through the following steps:

[0107] Step S310, obtain the hydrogen production and consumption balance data of the hydrogen production link.

[0108] The hydrogen production and consumption balance data may include the raw material gas volumes such as natural gas, dry gas, and naphtha required for hydrogen production, as well as the usage amounts of hydrogen in each process of refining and chemical industry.

[0109] Step S320, according to the hydrogen production and consumption balance data, determine the second fitting relationship between the target hydrogen production volume and the production materials in the hydrogen production link.

[0110] In some embodiments, a fourth fitting relationship between the quantity of production materials and the hydrogen consumption can be determined based on the hydrogen production and consumption balance data.

[0111] In the specific implementation process, the crude oil processing volume can be used as the main influencing factor to fit the relationship between influencing factors such as the crude oil processing volume and the hydrogen consumption, so as to obtain the fourth fitting relationship.

[0112] Only as an example, for the A petrochemical enterprise in the above example, the crude oil processing volume can be used as the main influencing factor, and diesel oil and marine fuel oil can be used as secondary influencing factors to fit the hydrogen consumption, and the R2 value is 0.976; the fourth fitting relationship obtained by fitting is as follows:

[0113] Hydrogen consumption = -409.31432 + 0.00257 * crude oil processing volume + -0.00284 * marine fuel oil + -0.00319 * diesel oil.

[0114] For the hydrogen production link, it is divided into two parts: hydrogen production from raw materials and by-product hydrogen in the refining process. During the refining process, hydrogen is by-produced through processes such as membrane separation, PSA, and steam reforming, and the shortage part is produced by processing raw materials such as natural gas, naphtha, and refinery dry gas. Taking the A petrochemical enterprise as an example, as Figure 7 shown, the hydrogen production involves four process flows. Among them, hydrogen production unit 1 and hydrogen production unit 2 belong to the hydrogen production process; hydrogen-rich recovery and reforming process belong to the by-product hydrogen process. Therefore, when determining the second fitting relationship between the target hydrogen production volume and the production materials in the hydrogen production link, the by-product hydrogen volume in the refining process needs to be considered simultaneously.

[0115] In some embodiments, a fifth fitting relationship between the quantity of production materials and the by-product hydrogen volume during the processing of the production materials can be determined based on the hydrogen production and consumption balance data.

[0116] In the specific implementation process, the crude oil processing volume can be used as the main influencing factor to fit the relationship between the hydrogen production volume of the process for by-product hydrogen and factors such as the crude oil processing volume, so as to obtain the fifth fitting relationship.

[0117] Only as an example, for the above-mentioned A petrochemical enterprise, the hydrogen production in the hydrogen-rich recovery and reforming processes is strongly correlated with the production volumes of crude oil processing volume, marine fuel oil, diesel oil, etc., and is not strongly correlated with the temperature. The sixth fitting relationship between the first hydrogen production volume in the hydrogen-rich recovery link and the production materials and the seventh fitting relationship between the second hydrogen production volume in the steam reforming link and the production materials can be determined as follows:

[0118] The first hydrogen production = -43.52606 + 0.00100 * crude oil processing volume + -0.00017 * marine fuel oil + -0.00249 * diesel - 0.00215 * transformer oil.

[0119] The second hydrogen production = -298.07720 + -0.00080 * crude oil processing volume + 0.00050 * marine fuel oil + 0.00170 * diesel + 0.02248 * transformer oil.

[0120] In a specific implementation process, the sixth fitting relationship and the seventh fitting relationship are combined to obtain the fifth fitting relationship between the amount of production materials and the amount of by-product hydrogen in the process of processing the production materials as shown below:

[0121] By-product hydrogen amount = first hydrogen production amount + second hydrogen production amount = -341.60326 + 0.00020*crude oil processing amount + 0.0033*marine fuel oil + -0.00079*diesel + 0.02033*transformer oil.

[0122] In some embodiments, the fourth fitting relationship and the fifth fitting relationship can be combined to obtain a second fitting relationship between the target hydrogen production amount and the production material. As an example only, the second fitting relationship is as follows:

[0123] Target hydrogen production amount=hydrogen consumption (fourth fitting relationship)-byproduct hydrogen amount (fifth fitting relationship).

[0124] Step S330: determining a third fitting relationship between the target hydrogen production amount and the natural gas demand in the hydrogen production link according to the hydrogen production and consumption balance data.

[0125] In the specific implementation process, the natural gas and alternative raw materials in the hydrogen production process can be taken as a whole to fit the relationship between hydrogen production and crude oil processing volume and hydrogen production raw materials.

[0126] Just as an example, for the above-mentioned petrochemical company A:

[0127] Hydrogen production device - hydrogen production: Figure 8 As shown, the raw gas is mainly dry gas, supplemented by natural gas. The total amount of raw gas is strongly correlated with the hydrogen production, with a correlation coefficient of 0.995, and the hydrogen product yield is maintained at around 53%. Hydrogen production = hydrogen production = total raw material * 0.532086 (R2 is 0.991, correlation: 0.995).

[0128] Hydrogen production unit produces hydrogen: Figure 8As shown, the raw gas is mainly natural gas, and dry gas and pentane oil are recovered as supplements. The total amount of raw gas is strongly correlated with the hydrogen production, with a correlation coefficient of 0.925, and the hydrogen product yield is maintained at around 39%. Hydrogen production from hydrogen production II = total amount of raw materials for hydrogen production II * 0.39231 (R2 is 0.783, and the correlation is 0.925).

[0129] In the specific implementation process, since dry gas raw materials, pentane oil, and recycled dry gas are natural gas substitute raw materials, the consumption of substitute raw materials will increase only when natural gas resources are insufficient. Therefore, assuming that the total amount of raw gas in hydrogen production process one and two is the actual natural gas demand, the third fitting relationship between the target hydrogen production amount and the natural gas demand is obtained as shown below:

[0130] Target hydrogen production = -402.27644 + 0.00204 * crude oil processing volume + -0.00217 * marine fuel oil + -0.00331 * diesel + 0.00971 * transformer oil + 0.07677 * natural gas demand.

[0131] Step S340, obtaining a fitting relationship between the natural gas demand and the production materials in the hydrogen production process according to the second fitting relationship and the third fitting relationship.

[0132] As an example only, the second fitting relationship is:

[0133] Hydrogen consumption = -409.31432 + 0.00257 * crude oil processing volume - 0.00284 * marine fuel oil - 0.00319 * diesel.

[0134] The third fitting relationship is:

[0135] Hydrogen production = -402.27 + 0.00204 * crude oil processing volume - 0.00217 * marine fuel oil - 0.00331 * diesel + 0.00971 * transformer oil + 0.07677 * natural gas demand.

[0136] Lian Li obtained: Natural gas demand = -0.01838 + 0.60040*crude oil processing volume - 0.32702*marine fuel oil - 0.07239*diesel + 0.24229*diesel secondary processing volume start-up days + 0.31723*transformer oil + 0.05549*petroleum asphalt.

[0137] In the specific implementation process, we can use xgboost, random forest, lasso and other models to further correct the fitting effect, and normalize the data to increase the R2 value of the fitting effect from 0.762 to 0.851.

[0138] Figure 4It is an exemplary flowchart of a method for obtaining a fitting relationship between the natural gas demand and production materials in the combustion process shown in some embodiments of the present application.

[0139] In this embodiment, the production process that consumes natural gas is the combustion process, the natural gas consumption factor is the fuel gas demand, and the natural gas consumption data information is the fuel gas production and consumption balance data.

[0140] Such as Figure 4 shown, the fitting relationship between the natural gas demand and production materials in the production process can be obtained through the following steps:

[0141] Step S410, obtain the fuel gas production and consumption balance data of the combustion process.

[0142] For the combustion process, fuel gas is generally used to produce steam and heat the refinery and chemical plants. Fuel gas is generally composed of three parts: dry gas, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas. Dry gas is the main part, accounting for more than 90%, natural gas is the secondary part, accounting for no more than 10%, and liquefied petroleum gas is used as a supplement to play a flexible adjustment role.

[0143] The fuel gas production and consumption balance data can include refinery dry gas data, natural gas data, liquefied petroleum gas data, etc., as well as the fuel gas demand of each process of the refinery and chemical plants.

[0144] Step S420, determine the second fitting relationship between the fuel gas demand and production materials according to the fuel gas production and consumption balance data.

[0145] In the specific implementation process, the crude oil processing volume can be used as the main influencing factor to fit the relationship between the crude oil processing volume, temperature and other influencing factors and the fuel gas demand.

[0146] Only as an example, taking B petrochemical enterprise as an example, such as Figure 10 shown, taking the material balance and energy conservation equations as the core, fit the correlation relationship and recurrence formula between natural gas and the influencing factors of gas consumption in each link. Conduct data analysis on the production and consumption balance of power furnaces, fuel gas production and consumption balance, and refinery dry gas production and consumption balance, determine the main factors affecting the material balance in each link, use the polynomial linear regression model to fit the relationship between the fuel gas demand in each link and the influencing factors, and screen out the factors affecting the total natural gas demand.

[0147] In the specific implementation process, according to the influencing factors of the production of dry gas fuel, liquefied gas fuel, and natural gas fuel determined by each link, the fitting regression of the total fuel gas can be carried out. Use the xgboost model for correlation analysis, further screen the influencing factors, improve the fitting effect of the model, and the R2 value reaches 0.857.

[0148] As an example only, a second fitted relationship between fuel gas demand and production material is shown below:

[0149] Fuel gas demand = crude oil processing volume*0.935016+gasoline*0.24906+marine fuel oil*0.039133+monthly average temperature*-69.036315.

[0150] Step S430, determining a third fitting relationship between the fuel gas production and natural gas demand in the combustion link according to the fuel gas production and consumption balance data.

[0151] Taking crude oil processing volume as the main influencing factor, and assuming that natural gas and liquefied gas in the combustion stage are the combustion natural gas demand, the relationship between influencing factors such as crude oil processing volume and temperature and combustion dry gas consumption is fitted.

[0152] As an example only, a third fitted relationship between fuel gas production and natural gas demand is shown below:

[0153] Fuel gas production = 1357.01702 + 1.21313 * natural gas demand - 0.00289 * crude oil processing volume + 0.01763 * marine fuel oil + 0.03643 * gasoline - 0.00689 * diesel - 2.31438 * sum of average temperature + 348.21817 * diesel secondary processing operation days - 0.01183 * steam purchase volume.

[0154] Step S440: obtaining a fitting relationship between the natural gas demand in the combustion link and the production material according to the second fitting relationship and the third fitting relationship.

[0155] In the specific implementation process, the second fitting relationship and the third fitting relationship can be combined to obtain the fitting relationship between the natural gas demand in the combustion link and the production material. As an example only, the fitting relationship is as follows:

[0156] Natural gas demand = 0.44862 + 3.08539 * crude oil processing volume + -1.85572 * gasoline production + -0.83946 * diesel production + -0.51887 * kerosene production + -0.31812 * steam purchase volume + -0.20127 * average temperature sum + 0.14636 * natural gas contract volume.

[0157] like Figure 11 As shown, an embodiment of the present disclosure provides a natural gas consumption demand analysis system for an oil refining and chemical enterprise, comprising:

[0158] A data acquisition module is used to acquire data information of production materials of a refinery within a target time period, wherein the production materials include production raw materials and products;

[0159] A relational expression construction module for constructing a first fitting relational expression between the quantity of production materials and the natural gas demand.

[0160] A prediction module for calculating based on the data information of the production materials and the first fitting relational expression to obtain a predicted value of the natural gas demand of the refinery enterprise within the target time period.

[0161] For the implementation processes of the functions and roles of each module in the above system, please refer to the implementation processes of the corresponding steps in the above method for details, which will not be elaborated here.

[0162] For the system embodiment, since it basically corresponds to the method embodiment, the relevant parts can be referred to the partial description of the method embodiment. The system embodiment described above is only illustrative. The modules described as separate components may or may not be physically separated. The components shown as modules may or may not be physical modules, that is, they may be located in one place or distributed to multiple network modules. Some or all of the modules can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the solution of the present invention. Those of ordinary skill in the art can understand and implement it without creative work.

[0163] In the above embodiments, any multiple of all the modules can be combined and implemented in one module, or any one of the modules can be split into multiple modules. Or, at least part of the functions of one or more of these modules can be combined with at least part of the functions of other modules and implemented in one module. At least one of all the modules can be at least partially implemented as a hardware circuit, such as a field programmable gate array (FPGA), a programmable logic array (PLA), a system on chip, a system on a substrate, a system on a package, an application specific integrated circuit (ASIC), or can be implemented by any other reasonable way of integrating or packaging circuits and other hardware or firmware, or implemented in any one of the three implementation ways of software, hardware, and firmware or in any appropriate combination of several of them. Or, at least one of all the modules can be at least partially implemented as a computer program module, and when the computer program module is run, the corresponding functions can be executed.

[0164] See Figure 12 , the electronic device provided by the embodiment of the present disclosure includes a processor 1110, a communication interface 1120, a memory 1130, and a communication bus 1140. Among them, the processor 1110, the communication interface 1120, and the memory 1130 complete mutual communication through the communication bus 1140;

[0165] The memory 1130 is used to store computer programs;

[0166] When the processor 1110 executes the program stored in the memory 1130, it implements the natural gas consumption demand analysis method for oil refining and chemical enterprises as shown below.

[0167] The aforementioned communication bus 1140 can be a Peripheral Component Interconnect (PCI) bus or an Extended Industry Standard Architecture (EISA) bus, etc. This communication bus 1140 can be divided into an address bus, a data bus, a control bus, etc. For the sake of simplicity in representation, only a thick line is used in the figure, but it does not mean that there is only one bus or one type of bus.

[0168] The communication interface 1120 is used for communication between the aforementioned electronic device and other devices.

[0169] The memory 1130 can include a Random Access Memory (RAM), and can also include a non-volatile memory, such as at least one disk memory. Optionally, the memory 1130 can also be at least one storage device located far from the aforementioned processor 1110.

[0170] The aforementioned processor 1110 can be a general-purpose processor, including a Central Processing Unit (CPU), a Network Processor (NP), etc.; it can also be a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), a Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA), or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components.

[0171] Embodiments of the present disclosure also provide a computer-readable storage medium. A computer program is stored on the aforementioned computer-readable storage medium, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the natural gas consumption demand analysis method for oil refining and chemical enterprises as described above.

[0172] The computer-readable storage medium may be included in the device / apparatus described in the above embodiments; or it may exist alone without being assembled into the device / apparatus. The above computer-readable storage medium carries one or more programs, and when the one or more programs are executed, a method for analyzing the natural gas consumption demand of a refinery and petrochemical enterprise according to the embodiments of the present disclosure is implemented.

[0173] According to an embodiment of the present disclosure, the computer-readable storage medium may be a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium, for example, it may include but is not limited to: portable computer disks, hard disks, random access memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), optical storage devices, magnetic storage devices, or any suitable combination of the above. In the present disclosure, the computer-readable storage medium may be any tangible medium that contains or stores a program, and the program may be used by or in combination with an instruction execution system, device, or apparatus.

[0174] The above-described embodiments merely represent several implementation manners of the present invention, and the description thereof is relatively specific and detailed, but it should not be construed as a limitation on the scope of the patent of the present invention. It should be noted that for those of ordinary skill in the art, without departing from the concept of the present invention, several modifications and improvements can still be made, and these all belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for analyzing the natural gas consumption demand of a refinery and chemical enterprise, characterized in that, Including the following steps: Obtain the data information of the production materials of the refining and chemical enterprise during the target time period, where the production materials include production raw materials and products; Construct a first fitting relationship between the quantity of production materials and the natural gas demand; Based on the data information of the production materials and the first fitting relationship, perform calculations to obtain the predicted value of the natural gas demand of the refining and chemical enterprise during the target time period.

2. The natural gas consumption demand analysis method for a refinery and chemical enterprise according to claim 1, characterized in that, The derivation process of constructing the first fitting relationship between the quantity of production materials and the natural gas demand is as follows: Obtain the natural gas consumption data information of each production link of the refining and chemical enterprise that consumes natural gas; According to the natural gas consumption data information, determine a second fitting relationship between the natural gas consumption factor of the production link and the production materials; According to the natural gas consumption data information, determine a third fitting relationship between the natural gas consumption factor of the production link and the natural gas demand; According to the second fitting relationship and the third fitting relationship, obtain the fitting relationship between the natural gas demand of the production link and the production materials; According to the fitting relationships between the natural gas demand and the production materials of all production links that consume natural gas, obtain the first fitting relationship.

3. The natural gas consumption demand analysis method for a refinery and chemical enterprise according to claim 1, wherein The production link that consumes natural gas is the hydrogen production link, the natural gas consumption factor is the target hydrogen production volume, and the natural gas consumption data information is the hydrogen production and consumption balance data; where the target hydrogen production volume is the quantity of hydrogen that needs to consume natural gas for production; The fitting relationship between the natural gas demand of the production link and the production materials is obtained through the following method: Obtain the hydrogen production and consumption balance data of the hydrogen production link; According to the hydrogen production and consumption balance data, determine a second fitting relationship between the target hydrogen production volume of the hydrogen production link and the production materials; According to the hydrogen production and consumption balance data, determine a third fitting relationship between the target hydrogen production volume of the hydrogen production link and the natural gas demand; According to the second fitting relationship and the third fitting relationship, obtain the fitting relationship between the natural gas demand of the hydrogen production link and the production materials.

4. A method for analyzing the natural gas consumption demand of a refinery and chemical enterprise according to claim 3, characterized in that The step of determining the second fitting relationship between the target hydrogen production volume of the hydrogen production link and the production materials according to the hydrogen production and consumption balance data includes: According to the hydrogen production and consumption balance data, determine a fourth fitting relationship between the quantity of production materials and the hydrogen consumption; According to the hydrogen production and consumption balance data, determine a fifth fitting relationship between the quantity of production materials and the by-product hydrogen volume during the processing of the production materials; According to the fourth fitting relationship and the fifth fitting relationship, determine the second fitting relationship between the target hydrogen production volume and the production materials.

5. The natural gas consumption demand analysis method for a refinery and chemical enterprise according to claim 4, wherein The step of determining the fifth fitting relationship between the quantity of production materials and the by-product hydrogen volume during the processing of the production materials includes: Determine a sixth fitting relationship between the first hydrogen production volume of the hydrogen-rich recovery link and the production materials; Determine a seventh fitting relationship between the second hydrogen production volume of the steam reforming link and the production materials; According to the sixth fitting relationship and the seventh fitting relationship, establish the fifth fitting relationship.

6. The natural gas consumption demand analysis method for a refinery and chemical enterprise according to claim 2, wherein The natural gas-consuming production link is the combustion link, the natural gas consumption factor is the fuel gas demand, and the natural gas consumption data information is the fuel gas production and consumption balance data; The fitting relationship between the natural gas demand of the production link and the production materials is obtained in the following manner: Obtain the fuel gas production and consumption balance data of the combustion link; According to the fuel gas production and consumption balance data, determine the second fitting relationship between the fuel gas demand and the production materials; According to the fuel gas production and consumption balance data, determine the third fitting relationship between the fuel gas output of the combustion link and the natural gas demand; According to the second fitting relationship and the third fitting relationship, obtain the fitting relationship between the natural gas demand of the combustion link and the production materials.

7. A method for analyzing the natural gas consumption demand of a refinery and chemical enterprise according to claim 1, characterized in that, It also includes using a preset machine learning model to correct the first fitting relationship.

8. A natural gas consumption demand analysis system for a refinery and chemical enterprise, characterized in that, It includes: A data acquisition module for acquiring the data information of the production materials of a refining and chemical enterprise during a target time period, where the production materials include production raw materials and products; A relationship construction module for constructing a first fitting relationship between the quantity of production materials and the natural gas demand; A prediction module for calculating based on the data information of the production materials and the first fitting relationship to obtain a predicted value of the natural gas demand of the refining and chemical enterprise during the target time period.

9. An electronic device, characterized in that, It includes a processor, a communication interface, a memory, and a communication bus. Among them, the processor, the communication interface, and the memory complete communication with each other through the communication bus; The memory is used for storing computer programs; When the processor is used to execute the programs stored in the memory, it implements the natural gas consumption demand analysis method of the refining and chemical enterprise described in any one of claims 1-7.

10. A computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, characterized in that, When the computer program is executed by the processor, it implements the natural gas consumption demand analysis method of the refining and chemical enterprise described in any one of claims 1-7.

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