Geological disaster early warning method, device, equipment, storage medium and product

Abstract

The invention discloses a geological disaster early warning method, which comprises the steps of collecting occurrence time of a historical heavy rainfall disaster-causing event in a preset time period of a target area and corresponding historical rainfall data, establishing a rainfall early warning model, and determining a rainfall early warning line of geological disaster occurrence; the earlier-stage cumulative rainfall and the current-day forecast rainfall of the target area are obtained and input into the rainfall early warning model, and early warning information of the to-be-early-warned time period is output; generating a geological disaster prevention strategy of the target area according to the early warning information; according to the invention, the fine degree of early warning of geological disasters can be improved, and the real-time performance of early warning can be ensured.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of geological disaster monitoring and early warning technology, and in particular to a geological disaster early warning method, device, equipment, storage medium and product. Background Art

[0002] Geological disasters caused by extreme weather and climate can pose a serious threat to people’s asset safety and life safety. Accurate and effective geological disaster meteorological risk analysis and early warning can effectively reduce the losses caused by disasters.

[0003] In densely populated areas such as cities and towns, during the meteorological risk emergency response period, it is necessary to quickly analyze and assess geological disaster risk areas and hidden danger points distributed at multiple points in a large area at the same time. Under complex and changeable meteorological conditions, it is necessary to output comprehensive geological disaster risk assessment results at a high frequency to assist relevant departments in making decisions and achieve refined control over risk areas.

[0004] However, the current early warning method requires a lot of manpower and time to complete a large amount of data statistics, analysis, and processing work, which is difficult to meet the work scenarios of emergency response. At the same time, the information output by geological disaster analysis is not comprehensive enough, and it is impossible to quickly count the historical disaster and hazard information in the early warning area and the areas judged to be at risk, as well as the number of existing geological disaster risk points, the level of hazard, the number of people who need to be relocated, and other related data. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a geological disaster early warning method that can improve the degree of early warning refinement and ensure real-time performance. Summary of the invention

[0005] The embodiment of the present invention provides a geological disaster early warning method, which can improve the refinement of geological disaster early warning and ensure the real-time nature of the early warning.

[0006] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a geological disaster early warning method, comprising:

[0007] Collect the occurrence time of historical heavy rainfall disaster events and corresponding historical rainfall data within the preset time period in the target area, establish a rainfall warning model, and determine the rainfall warning line for geological disasters;

[0008] Obtain the previous accumulated rainfall and the forecast rainfall for the day in the target area, and input them into the rainfall warning model, and output the warning information for the warning period;

[0009] Based on the warning information, a geological disaster prevention strategy for the target area is generated.

[0010] Furthermore, the establishment of a rainfall warning model to determine the rainfall warning line for geological disasters includes:

[0011] Calculate the cumulative rainfall in the period before the disaster occurs based on the historical geological disaster data;

[0012] Based on the cumulative rainfall in the period before the disaster, use the critical rainfall line method to determine the rainfall warning lines for different warning levels in different disaster-prone zoning levels; wherein, the disaster-prone zoning levels include high-prone zoning, medium-prone zoning and low-prone zoning, and the warning levels include first-level warning, second-level warning, third-level warning and fourth-level warning.

[0013] Further, the calculating the cumulative rainfall in the period before the disaster occurs based on the historical geological disaster data includes:

[0014] Obtain the rainfall on each day of all disaster occurrence days and a preset number of days before the disaster occurs from the historical geological disaster data;

[0015] According to the rainfall, use the Pearson correlation coefficient method to calculate the correlation coefficients between the disaster occurrence and the rainfall in different time periods before the disaster occurs respectively;

[0016] Based on the correlation coefficients, determine the number of days N before the disaster rainfall impact; wherein, the number of days N before the disaster rainfall impact indicates that the correlation between the disaster occurrence and the rainfall in the N days before the disaster occurs is the highest;

[0017] Calculate the continuous rainfall days before the disaster occurs according to the preset continuous rainfall days calculation rule;

[0018] Calculate the cumulative rainfall in the period before the disaster occurs according to the number of days N before the disaster rainfall impact and the continuous rainfall days.

[0019] Further, the calculating the cumulative rainfall in the period before the disaster occurs according to the number of days N before the disaster rainfall impact and the continuous rainfall days includes:

[0020] Select the larger value of the number of days N before the disaster rainfall impact and the continuous rainfall days as the cumulative rainfall days before the disaster occurs;

[0021] Obtain the rainfall on each day of the cumulative rainfall days before the disaster occurs, and calculate the cumulative rainfall in the period before the disaster occurs.

[0022] Further, the method for determining the warning level is:

[0023] When the disaster occurrence probability is greater than or equal to 80%, determine the warning level as the first-level warning;

[0024] When the disaster occurrence probability is greater than or equal to 60% and less than 80%, determine the warning level as the second-level warning;

[0025] When the probability of disaster occurrence is greater than or equal to 40% and less than 60%, the early warning level is determined as the third-level early warning;

[0026] When the probability of disaster occurrence is greater than or equal to 20% and less than 40%, the early warning level is determined as the fourth-level early warning.

[0027] Furthermore, based on the previous cumulative rainfall, the critical rainfall line method is used to determine the rainfall early warning lines for different early warning levels under different disaster-prone zoning levels, including:

[0028] Taking the previous cumulative rainfall as the vertical axis and the rainfall on the day of disaster occurrence as the horizontal axis, a rainfall early warning coordinate system is drawn;

[0029] Drawing the rainfall characteristic values within a preset time period of the target area into the rainfall early warning coordinate system; wherein, the rainfall characteristic values include the first rainfall characteristic value of historical heavy rainfall disaster-causing events and the second rainfall characteristic value of historical heavy rainfall non-disaster-causing events;

[0030] Based on the rainfall characteristic values and the rainfall early warning coordinate system, a linear equation of the rainfall disaster-causing critical line is obtained;

[0031] According to the linear equation, the rainfall early warning lines for different early warning levels under different disaster-prone zoning levels are determined.

[0032] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a geological disaster early warning device, including:

[0033] A rainfall early warning model establishment module, configured to collect the occurrence time and corresponding historical rainfall data of historical heavy rainfall disaster-causing events within a preset time period of the target area, establish a rainfall early warning model, and determine the rainfall early warning line for the occurrence of geological disasters;

[0034] An early warning information generation module, configured to obtain the previous cumulative rainfall and the predicted rainfall on the current day of the target area, and input them into the rainfall early warning model to output the early warning information for the period to be warned;

[0035] A disaster prevention strategy generation module, configured to generate a geological disaster prevention strategy for the target area according to the early warning information.

[0036] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, including:

[0037] A memory, configured to store a computer program;

[0038] A processor, configured to execute the computer program;

[0039] Wherein, when the processor executes the computer program, it implements the geological disaster early warning method described in any item of the first aspect above.

[0040] Fourthly, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, which when executed implements the geological disaster warning method according to any one of the above first aspects.

[0041] Fifthly, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer program product including computer instructions, which when executed by a processor implement the geological disaster warning method according to any one of the above first aspects.

[0042] Compared with the prior art, the geological disaster warning method provided by the embodiment of the present invention has the beneficial effects that: by collecting the occurrence time of historical heavy rainfall disaster-causing events and the corresponding historical rainfall data within a preset time period in a target area, a rainfall warning model is established to determine the rainfall warning line for geological disasters; the previous cumulative rainfall and the predicted rainfall of the day in the target area are obtained and input into the rainfall warning model to output the warning information for the period to be warned; according to the warning information, a geological disaster prevention strategy for the target area is generated; the present invention can improve the refinement degree of geological disaster warning and ensure the real-time nature of the warning. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0043] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical features of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings required to be used in the embodiments of the present invention will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the following described drawings are only some embodiments of the present invention, and those skilled in the art can obtain other drawings according to these drawings without creative efforts.

[0044] Figure 1 is a schematic flowchart of an embodiment of a geological disaster warning method provided by the present invention;

[0045] Figure 2 is a schematic diagram of warning lines of different warning levels of an embodiment of a geological disaster warning method provided by the present invention;

[0046] Figure 3 is a schematic diagram of warning lines of different disaster-prone zoning levels of an embodiment of a geological disaster warning method provided by the present invention;

[0047] Figure 4 is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of a geological disaster warning device provided by the present invention;

[0048] Figure 5 is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of an electronic device provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0049] Next, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described in conjunction with the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all the embodiments. All other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art based on the embodiments of the present invention without creative efforts shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.

[0050] It should be noted that although the functional modules are divided in the device schematic diagram and the logical order is shown in the flowchart, in some cases, the steps shown or described can be executed in a different module division in the device or a different order in the flowchart. Terms such as "first" and "second" in the specification, claims and the above-mentioned drawings are used to distinguish similar objects and do not necessarily need to describe a specific order or sequence.

[0051] Unless otherwise defined, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by those skilled in the technical field to which the present invention belongs. The terms used herein are only for the purpose of describing the embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention.

[0052] In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a geological disaster early warning method. Refer to Figure 1 , which is a schematic flowchart of an embodiment of a geological disaster early warning method provided by the present invention.

[0053] As Figure 1 shown, the method includes the following steps:

[0054] S1: Collect the occurrence time of historical heavy rainfall disaster events and the corresponding historical rainfall data within a preset time period in the target area, establish a rainfall early warning model, and determine the rainfall early warning line for geological disasters;

[0055] S2: Obtain the previous cumulative rainfall and the forecast rainfall for the current day in the target area, and input them into the rainfall early warning model to output the early warning information for the period to be warned;

[0056] S3: Generate a geological disaster prevention strategy for the target area according to the early warning information.

[0057] In specific implementation, first, an investigation is carried out on the areas prone to geological disasters, geological disaster risk points, and potential hazard points within the target area, including refined susceptibility zoning maps, types of geological disaster risks, risk levels, historical disaster occurrence records within the target area, etc. Through the refined susceptibility zoning map, the likelihood of geological disasters occurring in different areas can be understood. Based on the types and risk levels of geological disasters, targeted preventive measures can be taken. The historical disaster occurrence records within the target area are crucial for analyzing the occurrence patterns and characteristics of geological disasters and can provide experience references for subsequent early warning and prevention. In addition to the information directly related to geological disasters mentioned above, relevant information such as the personnel information, potential economic losses, and defense response plans involved in geological disaster risk points and potential hazard points also need to be recorded. The mastery of personnel information helps in the timely evacuation and rescue of people during disasters. The assessment of potential economic losses can provide a decision-making basis for disaster risk management. The defense response plan is an important guide for taking effective measures before, during, and after disasters.

[0058] In the present invention, by collecting the occurrence times and corresponding historical rainfall amounts of historical heavy rainfall-induced disaster events within a preset time period in the target area, a rainfall early warning model is established to determine the rainfall early warning line for geological disasters. The real-time cumulative rainfall data and the predicted rainfall data for the current day in the target area are accessed as the rainfall input data for the rainfall early warning model. Among them, the real-time rainfall data can use the real-time monitoring data of each rainfall station or professional monitoring equipment to ensure the distribution density of rainfall data.

[0059] The rainfall early warning model outputs the early warning information for the period to be warned. Exemplarily, when the period to be warned is the next three hours, the risks within the next three hours are analyzed. The cumulative rainfall in the previous period (n * 24h) is the cumulative rainfall before the current time point (24 - 3)h. The predicted rainfall for the current day (24h) consists of the actual rainfall within the current time point (24 - 3)h and the predicted rainfall for the next 3h. This data rolling method facilitates timely understanding of the rainfall conditions and geological disaster risks in different future time periods.

[0060] It can be understood that the early warning information is only a preliminary result. According to the consultation between technical personnel and experts, it supports the rapid single or batch adjustment of the risk levels of each early warning unit. While adjusting, the system simultaneously completes the statistical update of the defense response information within each risk area. According to the early warning information, a geological disaster prevention strategy for the target area is generated. Generating the early warning information will automatically associate the affected potential hazard points and risk points within the target area, and count the number of people affected within the risk area. By automatically associating potential hazard points and risk points, it is possible to quickly determine which areas may be affected by geological disasters, and thus take targeted preventive measures. At the same time, counting the number of people within the risk area can provide accurate information for the evacuation and rescue of people.

[0061] In summary, the present invention collects the occurrence time of historical heavy rainfall disaster events and the corresponding historical rainfall data within a preset time period in the target area, establishes a rainfall warning model, determines the rainfall warning line for geological disasters; obtains the previous cumulative rainfall and the predicted rainfall of the current day in the target area, and inputs them into the rainfall warning model to output the warning information for the period to be warned; according to the warning information, generates a geological disaster prevention strategy for the target area; taking rainfall as the inducing factor, through the collection and analysis of the basic data of the target area, the access of real-time rainfall data and the output of warning information, and the generation of geological disaster prevention strategies, the present invention can improve the refinement degree of geological disaster warning, ensure the real-time nature of the warning, thereby improving the level of geological disaster warning and prevention, and protecting the safety of people's lives and property.

[0062] In an alternative embodiment, the establishing of the rainfall warning model and determining the rainfall warning line for geological disasters includes:

[0063] According to the historical geological disaster data, calculate the previous cumulative rainfall before the disaster occurs;

[0064] Based on the previous cumulative rainfall, adopt the critical rainfall line method to determine the rainfall warning lines for different warning levels under different disaster-prone zoning levels; wherein, the disaster-prone zoning levels include high-prone zoning, medium-prone zoning and low-prone zoning, and the warning levels include first-level warning, second-level warning, third-level warning and fourth-level warning.

[0065] It can be understood that the process of rainfall causing landslides can be divided into two stages. The first stage is the previous rainfall period, which refers to the rainfall within a certain period before the occurrence of slope geological disasters. The rainfall usually increases the voids between soil particles in the slope body, followed by an increase in pore water pressure, a decrease in effective stress, a decrease in shear strength, and then induces the occurrence of disasters; the second stage is the continuous rainfall period, and this part of the rainfall directly triggers the occurrence of slope geological disasters to a certain extent.

[0066] When establishing a rainfall warning model, the previous cumulative rainfall used in the model should be determined first. According to the previous cumulative rainfall, the critical rainfall line method is adopted to determine the rainfall warning lines for different warning levels. Exemplarily, see Figure 2 As shown, it is a schematic diagram of warning lines for different warning levels. Among them, the abscissa is the rainfall of the current day, the ordinate is the previous effective cumulative rainfall, and the warning lines include a red warning line, a yellow warning line, a yellow warning line and a blue warning line, corresponding to the first-level warning, the second-level warning, the third-level warning and the fourth-level warning respectively. The figure also includes several historical rainfall disaster points, indicating the rainfall data when different disasters occur.

[0067] Further, the warning line parameters corresponding to different disaster - prone zoning levels are different. Analyze the historical disaster points in each level of disaster - prone zoning within the target area separately. For the rainfall warning lines of different warning levels under different disaster - prone zoning levels, for example, see Figure 3 As shown, it is a schematic diagram of warning lines for different disaster - prone zoning levels. Among them, the abscissa is the daily rainfall, and the ordinate is the cumulative effective rainfall in the early stage. The warning lines include the rainfall warning lines for the first - level warning, second - level warning, third - level warning, and fourth - level warning in the high - prone zoning, the rainfall warning lines for the first - level warning, second - level warning, third - level warning, and fourth - level warning in the medium - prone zoning, and the rainfall warning lines for the first - level warning, second - level warning, third - level warning, and fourth - level warning in the low - prone zoning.

[0068] It should be noted that directly accumulating the rainfall of each previous day cannot accurately represent the rainfall. It is necessary to calculate the effective rainfall. The calculation formula for the effective rainfall is as follows:

[0069]

[0070] Among them, R c is the effective rainfall, R0 is the daily rainfall, R i is the rainfall on the i - th day, n is the total number of rainfall days, and α is the rainfall coefficient.

[0071] In an alternative embodiment, calculating the cumulative rainfall in the early stage before the disaster occurs based on the historical geological disaster data includes:

[0072] Obtain the rainfall of each day on all disaster - occurring days and a preset number of days before the disaster occurs from the historical geological disaster data;

[0073] According to the rainfall, calculate the correlation coefficients between the disaster occurrence and the rainfall in different time periods before the disaster occurs respectively using the Pearson correlation coefficient method;

[0074] Determine the number of days N before the disaster rainfall impact based on the correlation coefficients; where the number of days N before the disaster rainfall impact indicates that the correlation between the disaster occurrence and the rainfall N days before the disaster occurs is the highest;

[0075] Calculate the continuous rainfall days before the disaster occurs according to the preset calculation rule for the continuous rainfall days;

[0076] Calculate the cumulative rainfall in the early stage before the disaster occurs according to the number of days N before the disaster rainfall impact and the continuous rainfall days.

[0077] Specifically, obtain the time of each geological disaster occurrence from historical geological disaster data, collect the rainfall data for each day in the preset time period before the disaster during the corresponding time period. The rainfall data for each day in the previous 7 days, previous 10 days, or previous 30 days can be collected. Count the number of disaster occurrences after each rainfall, and calculate the correlation coefficient between the rainfall and the number of subsequent disaster occurrences. The calculation method uses the Carl Pearson correlation coefficient method, as follows:

[0078]

[0079] Among them, r(X,Y) is the correlation coefficient between the two variables, cov(X,Y) is the covariance between variable X and variable Y, var(X) is the variance of variable X, and var(Y) is the variance of variable Y.

[0080] Exemplarily, the present invention analyzes the correlation coefficients between the disaster occurrence and the rainfall on the day before the disaster, the day before the second day, the day before the third day, the day before the fourth day, the day before the fifth day, the day before the sixth day, and the day before the seventh day, and determines the time period with the strongest correlation, that is, the previous N days. N is the number of days before the disaster rainfall influence day, indicating that the correlation between the disaster occurrence and the rainfall in the previous N days before the disaster is the highest, that is, the rainfall in the previous N days has a greater impact on the occurrence of slope geological disasters. For example, in the calculation process, it is found that the correlation coefficient between the disaster occurrence and the rainfall on the day before the third day is the highest, indicating that there is a strong positive correlation between the occurrence of slope geological disasters in this area and the rainfall on the day before the third day. The possible reason is that the rainfall in the previous three days gradually accumulates, saturates the soil mass, reduces the stability of the slope, and thus increases the possibility of disaster occurrence.

[0081] Furthermore, pre-determine the standard for continuous rainfall, and clarify under what circumstances the rainfall can be recognized as continuous rainfall. For example, continuous rainfall refers to a rainfall time period in which the daily rainfall is greater than 5 mm and the continuous time exceeds 3 days until the daily rainfall is less than 5 mm, and the rainfall is greater than 30 mm. Calculate the number of days of continuous rainfall before the disaster according to this standard, record the number of days of continuous rainfall as M, and calculate the cumulative rainfall in the early stage before the disaster according to the number of days N before the disaster rainfall influence day and the number of days M of continuous rainfall.

[0082] In an alternative embodiment, the calculating the cumulative rainfall in the early stage before the disaster according to the number of days N before the disaster rainfall influence day and the number of days of continuous rainfall includes:

[0083] Select the larger value between the number of days N before the disaster rainfall influence day and the number of days of continuous rainfall as the number of days of cumulative rainfall before the disaster;

[0084] Obtain the rainfall for each day in the number of days of cumulative rainfall, and calculate the cumulative rainfall in the early stage before the disaster.

[0085] Specifically, usually N is the same as M or the difference does not exceed one day, and the larger value between the two is selected as the number of days of cumulative rainfall in the early stage. For example, for the Guangzhou area, the number of days N before the disaster rainfall impact date is 3, and the number of consecutive rainfall days M is 4, then the number of days of cumulative rainfall in the early stage is 4 days. When calculating the cumulative rainfall in the early stage, calculate the cumulative rainfall in the 4 days before the disaster occurs.

[0086] In an alternative embodiment, the method for determining the warning level is as follows:

[0087] When the probability of disaster occurrence is greater than or equal to 80%, determine the warning level as a first-level warning;

[0088] When the probability of disaster occurrence is greater than or equal to 60% and less than 80%, determine the warning level as a second-level warning;

[0089] When the probability of disaster occurrence is greater than or equal to 40% and less than 60%, determine the warning level as a third-level warning;

[0090] When the probability of disaster occurrence is greater than or equal to 20% and less than 40%, determine the warning level as a fourth-level warning.

[0091] Specifically, the first-level warning is the red warning, indicating that the possibility of a geological disaster occurring is very high, and the risk of a geological disaster caused by meteorological factors is very high, with a probability greater than or equal to 80%. The second-level warning is the orange warning, indicating that the possibility of a geological disaster occurring is high, and the risk of a geological disaster caused by meteorological factors is high, with a probability greater than or equal to 60% and less than 80%. The third-level warning is the yellow warning, indicating that the possibility of a geological disaster occurring is relatively high, and the risk of a geological disaster caused by meteorological factors is relatively high, with a probability greater than or equal to 40% and less than 60%. The fourth-level warning is the blue warning, indicating that the possibility of a geological disaster occurring is relatively low, and there is a certain risk of a geological disaster caused by meteorological factors, with a probability greater than or equal to 20% and less than 40%.

[0092] In an alternative embodiment, based on the cumulative rainfall in the early stage, using the critical rainfall line method, determine the rainfall warning lines for different warning levels under different disaster-prone zoning levels, including:

[0093] Take the cumulative rainfall in the early stage as the vertical axis and the rainfall on the day of disaster occurrence as the horizontal axis to draw a rainfall warning coordinate system;

[0094] Plot the rainfall characteristic values within the preset time period of the target area into the rainfall warning coordinate system; wherein, the rainfall characteristic values include the first rainfall characteristic value of historical heavy rainfall disaster-causing events and the second rainfall characteristic value of historical heavy rainfall non-disaster-causing events;

[0095] Based on the rainfall characteristic values and the rainfall warning coordinate system, obtain the linear equation of the rainfall disaster-causing critical line;

[0096] Determine the rainfall warning lines for different warning levels under different disaster - prone zoning levels according to the straight - line equation.

[0097] Specifically, the critical rainfall line method is used to determine the rainfall warning line. The antecedent cumulative rainfall often has an important impact on the occurrence of disasters because it reflects factors such as the moisture content of the soil and the groundwater level, while the rainfall on the day of the disaster occurrence is directly related to whether the disaster will be triggered at a specific moment. Taking the antecedent cumulative rainfall as the vertical axis and the rainfall on the day of the disaster occurrence as the horizontal axis, a rainfall warning coordinate system is constructed. The rainfall characteristic values within the preset time period of the target area are plotted into the rainfall warning coordinate system, including the first rainfall characteristic values of historical heavy - rainfall disaster - causing events and the second rainfall characteristic values of historical heavy - rainfall non - disaster - causing events. The characteristic values of historical heavy - rainfall disaster - causing events can help determine under what rainfall conditions disasters are likely to occur, thus providing a basis for early warning, and the characteristic values of historical heavy - rainfall non - disaster - causing events can be used as a reference to help determine the relatively safe rainfall range. Based on the rainfall characteristic values plotted in the rainfall warning coordinate system, by analyzing the distribution density of rainfall disaster - causing points and rainfall non - disaster - causing points, the straight - line equation of the rainfall disaster - causing critical line can be obtained. Assuming that the intersection coordinate of the critical line with the vertical axis is (x b , y b ), and the intersection coordinate with the horizontal axis is (x d , y d ), then the straight - line equation can be obtained as follows:

[0098]

[0099] According to the obtained straight - line equation, the rainfall warning lines for different warning levels under different disaster - prone zoning levels can be determined.

[0100] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a geological disaster early - warning device. Refer to Figure 4 , which is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of a geological disaster early - warning device provided by the present invention.

[0101] As Figure 4 shown, the device includes:

[0102] A rainfall warning model establishment module 21, configured to collect the occurrence time and corresponding historical rainfall data of historical heavy - rainfall disaster - causing events within a preset time period of the target area, establish a rainfall warning model, and determine the rainfall warning line for the occurrence of geological disasters;

[0103] An early - warning information generation module 22, configured to obtain the antecedent cumulative rainfall and the forecast rainfall of the day of the target area, input them into the rainfall warning model, and output the early - warning information for the period to be warned;

[0104] A disaster prevention strategy generation module 23, configured to generate a geological disaster prevention strategy for a target area according to the early warning information.

[0105] In an alternative embodiment, the rainfall early warning model establishment module 21 is further configured to:

[0106] Calculate the cumulative rainfall in the early stage before the disaster according to the historical geological disaster data;

[0107] Based on the cumulative rainfall in the early stage, adopt the critical rainfall line method to determine the rainfall early warning lines for different early warning levels under different disaster-prone zoning levels; wherein, the disaster-prone zoning levels include high-prone zoning, medium-prone zoning and low-prone zoning, and the early warning levels include level-one early warning, level-two early warning, level-three early warning and level-four early warning.

[0108] In an alternative embodiment, the rainfall early warning model establishment module 21 is further configured to:

[0109] Obtain the rainfall on each day of all disaster occurrence days and a preset number of days before the disaster from the historical geological disaster data;

[0110] According to the rainfall, respectively calculate the correlation coefficients between the disaster occurrence and the rainfall in different time periods before the disaster by using the Pearson correlation coefficient method;

[0111] Determine the number of days N before the disaster rainfall impact based on the correlation coefficient; wherein, the number of days N before the disaster rainfall impact represents the highest correlation between the disaster occurrence and the rainfall in the N days before the disaster;

[0112] Calculate the continuous rainfall days before the disaster according to the preset continuous rainfall days calculation rule;

[0113] Calculate the cumulative rainfall in the early stage before the disaster according to the number of days N before the disaster rainfall impact and the continuous rainfall days.

[0114] In an alternative embodiment, the rainfall early warning model establishment module 21 is further configured to:

[0115] Select the larger value of the number of days N before the disaster rainfall impact and the continuous rainfall days as the cumulative rainfall days in the early stage before the disaster;

[0116] Obtain the rainfall on each day in the cumulative rainfall days in the early stage and calculate the cumulative rainfall in the early stage before the disaster.

[0117] In an alternative embodiment, the device further includes an early warning level determination module, configured to:

[0118] When the probability of disaster occurrence is greater than or equal to 80%, the warning level is determined as a first-level warning;

[0119] When the probability of disaster occurrence is greater than or equal to 60% and less than 80%, the warning level is determined as a second-level warning;

[0120] When the probability of disaster occurrence is greater than or equal to 40% and less than 60%, the warning level is determined as a third-level warning;

[0121] When the probability of disaster occurrence is greater than or equal to 20% and less than 40%, the warning level is determined as a fourth-level warning.

[0122] In an alternative embodiment, the rainfall warning model establishment module 21 is further configured to:

[0123] Take the cumulative rainfall in the early stage as the vertical axis and the rainfall on the day of disaster occurrence as the horizontal axis to draw a rainfall warning coordinate system;

[0124] Plot the rainfall characteristic values within a preset time period in the target area into the rainfall warning coordinate system; wherein, the rainfall characteristic values include the first rainfall characteristic value of historical heavy rainfall disaster-causing events and the second rainfall characteristic value of historical heavy rainfall non-disaster-causing events;

[0125] Based on the rainfall characteristic values and the rainfall warning coordinate system, obtain the linear equation of the rainfall disaster-causing critical line;

[0126] Determine the rainfall warning lines for different warning levels under different disaster-prone zoning levels according to the linear equation.

[0127] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device. Refer to Figure 5 shown, which is a schematic structural diagram of an electronic device provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0128] As Figure 5 shown, the device includes:

[0129] A memory 31 for storing a computer program;

[0130] A processor 32 for executing the computer program;

[0131] Wherein, when the processor 32 executes the computer program, it implements the geological disaster warning method as described in any of the above embodiments.

[0132] Exemplarily, the computer program may be divided into one or more modules / units, which are stored in the memory 31 and executed by the processor 32 to implement the present invention. The one or more modules / units may be a series of computer program instruction segments capable of performing specific functions, and these instruction segments are used to describe the execution process of the computer program in the electronic device.

[0133] The processor 32 may be a central processing unit (CPU), or may also be other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSPs), application specific integrated circuits (ASICs), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. The general-purpose processor may be a microprocessor or the processor may also be any conventional processor, etc.

[0134] The memory 31 can be used to store the computer program and / or modules. By running or executing the computer program and / or modules stored in the memory 31, and by invoking the data stored in the memory 31, the processor 32 realizes various functions of the electronic device. The memory 31 mainly includes a program storage area and a data storage area. Among them, the program storage area can store an operating system, application programs required for at least one function (such as a sound playback function, an image playback function, etc.), etc.; the data storage area can store data created according to the use of the mobile phone (such as audio data, phone book, etc.), etc. In addition, the memory 31 may include high-speed random access memory, and may also include non-volatile memory, such as a hard disk, a memory, a plug-in hard disk, a smart media card (SMC), a secure digital (SD) card, a flash card, at least one magnetic disk storage device, a flash memory device, or other volatile solid-state storage devices.

[0135] It should be noted that the above-mentioned electronic device includes, but is not limited to, a processor and a memory. Those skilled in the art can understand that Figure 5 The structural schematic diagram is only an example of the above-mentioned electronic device, and does not constitute a limitation on the electronic device. It may include more components than shown in the figure, or combine some components, or have different components.

[0136] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, wherein the computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed, the geological disaster warning method described in any of the above embodiments is implemented.

[0137] It should be understood that the present invention implements all or part of the processes in the above-mentioned geological disaster early warning method, and can also be completed by instructing related hardware through a computer program. The computer program can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the above-mentioned geological disaster early warning method can be implemented. Among them, the computer program includes computer program code, and the computer program code can be in source code form, object code form, executable file or some intermediate form. The computer readable medium may include: any entity or device capable of carrying the computer program code, recording medium, USB flash drive, mobile hard disk, magnetic disk, optical disk, computer memory, read-only memory (ROM, Read-Only Memory), random access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), electric carrier signal, telecommunication signal and software distribution medium, etc.

[0138] In a fifth aspect, an embodiment of the present application further provides a computer program product, which is stored in a storage medium and is executed by at least one processor to implement the geological disaster warning method described in any of the above embodiments.

[0139] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. It should be pointed out that for those skilled in the art, several equivalent obvious variations and / or equivalent substitutions can be made without departing from the technical principles of the present invention. These obvious variations and / or equivalent substitutions should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A geological disaster early warning method, characterized in that: include: Collect the occurrence time of historical heavy rainfall disaster events and corresponding historical rainfall data within the preset time period in the target area, establish a rainfall warning model, and determine the rainfall warning line for geological disasters; Obtain the previous accumulated rainfall and the forecast rainfall for the day in the target area, and input them into the rainfall warning model, and output the warning information for the warning period; Based on the warning information, a geological disaster prevention strategy for the target area is generated.

2. The geological disaster early warning method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The establishment of a rainfall warning model and determination of a rainfall warning line for geological disasters include: Based on the historical geological disaster data, calculate the previous cumulative rainfall before the disaster occurs; Based on the previous accumulated rainfall, the critical rainfall line method is adopted to determine rainfall warning lines of different warning levels under different disaster-prone zoning levels; wherein the disaster-prone zoning levels include high-prone zoning levels, medium-prone zoning levels and low-prone zoning levels, and the warning levels include level one warning, level two warning, level three warning and level four warning.

3. The geological disaster early warning method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The method of calculating the cumulative rainfall before the disaster occurs based on the historical geological disaster data includes: Obtaining the rainfall on all disaster occurrence days and each day of a preset number of days before the disaster occurrence from the historical geological disaster data; According to the rainfall, the correlation coefficients of rainfall in different time periods before and after the disaster are calculated using the Pearson correlation coefficient method; Determine the number of days N before the disaster rainfall impact date based on the correlation coefficient; wherein the number of days N before the disaster rainfall impact date indicates that the correlation between the occurrence of the disaster and the rainfall N days before the occurrence of the disaster is the highest; Calculate the number of continuous rainfall days before the disaster occurs according to the preset continuous rainfall days calculation rules; The previous accumulated rainfall before the disaster occurs is calculated based on the preceding number of days N before the disaster rainfall impact day and the number of continuous rainfall days.

4. The geological disaster early warning method according to claim 3, characterized in that: The calculation of the cumulative rainfall before the disaster occurs based on the number of days N before the disaster rainfall impact day and the number of continuous rainfall days includes: Select the larger one of the preceding number of days N before the disaster rainfall impact day and the number of continuous rainfall days as the preceding cumulative rainfall days before the disaster occurs; The rainfall of each day in the previous cumulative rainfall days is obtained to calculate the previous cumulative rainfall before the disaster occurs.

5. The geological disaster early warning method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The method for determining the warning level is as follows: When the probability of a disaster occurring is greater than or equal to 80%, the warning level is determined to be level one; When the probability of a disaster occurring is greater than or equal to 60% and less than 80%, the warning level is determined to be Level 2 warning; When the probability of a disaster occurring is greater than or equal to 40% and less than 60%, the warning level is determined to be level three; When the probability of a disaster occurring is greater than or equal to 20% and less than 40%, the warning level is determined to be level four.

6. The geological disaster early warning method according to claim 2, characterized in that: Based on the previous accumulated rainfall, the critical rainfall line method is used to determine the rainfall warning lines of different warning levels under different disaster prone zoning levels, including: The previous accumulated rainfall is used as the vertical axis, and the rainfall on the day of the disaster is used as the horizontal axis to draw a rainfall warning coordinate system; Plotting the rainfall characteristic values ​​within a preset time period in the target area into the rainfall warning coordinate system; wherein the rainfall characteristic values ​​include the first rainfall characteristic values ​​of historical heavy rainfall disaster-causing events and the second rainfall characteristic values ​​of historical heavy rainfall non-disaster-causing events; Based on the rainfall characteristic value and the rainfall warning coordinate system, a linear equation of a rainfall disaster critical line is obtained; According to the linear equation, rainfall warning lines of different warning levels under different disaster-prone zoning levels are determined.

7. A geological disaster early warning device, characterized in that: include: The rainfall warning model establishment module is used to collect the occurrence time of historical heavy rainfall disaster events and the corresponding historical rainfall data within a preset time period in the target area, establish a rainfall warning model, and determine the rainfall warning line for geological disasters; The warning information generation module is used to obtain the previous accumulated rainfall and the forecast rainfall for the day in the target area, and input them into the rainfall warning model to output the warning information for the warning period; The disaster prevention strategy generation module is used to generate a geological disaster prevention strategy for the target area based on the warning information.

8. An electronic device, characterized in that: include: Memory for storing computer programs; A processor, configured to execute the computer program; Wherein, when the processor executes the computer program, the geological disaster early warning method as described in any one of claims 1 to 6 is implemented.

9. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, and when the computer program is executed, the geological disaster early warning method according to any one of claims 1 to 6 is implemented.

10. A computer program product, characterized in that It includes computer instructions, which, when executed by a processor, implement the geological disaster early warning method as described in any one of claims 1 to 6.

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