Life prediction method, life prediction device, and power generation system

Abstract

This life prediction method is a life prediction method for a fuel cell device provided with a plurality of power generation units including a fuel cell. The time during which the power generation unit of the fuel cell device reaches the life is predicted on the basis of the cumulative power generation time of the power generation unit for which the power generation unit of the fuel cell device has been determined to have reached the life and the ratio of the power generation unit that generates power among all the power generation units of the fuel cell device within a predetermined period.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a life prediction method, a life prediction device, and a power generation system. Background Art

[0002] Regarding the life prediction of a power generation system, various proposals have been made in the past. As an example, Patent Document 1 discloses a life prediction method for a fuel cell: measuring the voltage change rate of a fuel cell operating in a basic operation mode (step S1); approximating the relationship between the voltage change rate and the power generation time for the basic operation mode using a predetermined approximation formula (step S2); using this approximation formula to obtain the voltage drop of the fuel cell (step S3); and when this voltage drop exceeds a predetermined value, determining that the life of the fuel cell has expired.

[0003] Prior Art Documents

[0004] Patent Documents

[0005] Patent Document 1: Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 11-97049 Summary of the Invention

[0006] Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0007] A problem of the present disclosure is, as an example, to provide a life prediction method, a life prediction device, and a power generation system that can predict, with higher accuracy than in the past, the periods when each of a plurality of power generation units including a fuel cell, which are included in a power generation group, reaches the end of its life.

[0008] Technical Means for Solving the Problems

[0009] In order to solve the above problems, a life prediction method according to one aspect of the present disclosure is a life prediction method for a fuel cell device including a plurality of power generation units including a fuel cell, and predicts the period when the power generation unit of the fuel cell device reaches the end of its life based on the cumulative power generation time of the power generation unit determined to have reached the end of its life in the fuel cell device and the ratio of the power generation units that generate power among all the power generation units of the fuel cell device within a predetermined period.

[0010] In addition, a life prediction device according to an aspect of the present disclosure is a life prediction device for a fuel cell device including a plurality of power generation units including fuel cells, and includes: a controller that predicts a period in which the power generation units of the fuel cell device reach the end of their service life based on the cumulative power generation time of the power generation units determined to have reached the end of their service life in the fuel cell device and the ratio of the power generation units that generate power among all the power generation units of the fuel cell device within a predetermined period; and a communicator that notifies information indicating the predicted period in which the power generation units of the fuel cell device reach the end of their service life to a display.

[0011] In addition, a power generation system according to an aspect of the present disclosure includes a plurality of power generation units including fuel cells and the above-described life prediction device.

[0012] Advantageous Effects of the Invention

[0013] A life prediction method, a life prediction device, and a power generation system according to an aspect of the present disclosure have an effect of being able to predict, with higher accuracy than in the past, the periods in which the respective power generation units including fuel cells in a power generation group reach the end of their service life. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0014] Figure 1 FIG. is a diagram showing an example of a power generation system according to an embodiment.

[0015] Figure 2 FIG. shows Figure 1 an example of a life prediction device.

[0016] Figure 3 FIG. is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the life prediction device in the power generation system according to the embodiment (a method for predicting the life of each power generation unit of the fuel cell device).

[0017] Figure 4 FIG. is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the life prediction device in the power generation system according to the first embodiment of the embodiment (a method for predicting the life of each power generation unit of the fuel cell device).

[0018] Figure 5 FIG. is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the life prediction device in the power generation system according to the second embodiment of the embodiment (a method for predicting the life of each power generation unit of the fuel cell device).

[0019] Figure 6 FIG. is a diagram showing an example of a voltage stabilization timing at which the voltage stabilizes after a predetermined time from the start of power generation of the power generation unit.

[0020] Figure 7 FIG. is a diagram for explaining an example of an approximate straight line showing the correlation between the cumulative power generation time and the voltage of the power generation unit.

[0021] Figure 8 This is a diagram showing an example of a power generation plan for a power generation system according to the third embodiment of the embodiment mode, and is a diagram for explaining an example of a calculation (estimation) method of the ratio R1 of the power generation units that generate power among all the power generation units within a predetermined period. Detailed implementation mode

[0022] In Patent Document 1, there is no research on predicting the periods when multiple power generation units each reach their lifetimes. Specifically, in Patent Document 1, the operating rate of a fuel cell device having multiple power generation units is not considered, so it is difficult to accurately predict the periods when each power generation unit reaches its lifetime.

[0023] Then, the lifetime prediction method of the first aspect of the present disclosure is a lifetime prediction method for a fuel cell device having multiple power generation units including fuel cells, and predicts the periods when the power generation units of the fuel cell device reach their lifetimes based on the cumulative power generation time of the power generation units determined to have reached their lifetimes and the ratio of the power generation units that generate power among all the power generation units of the fuel cell device within a predetermined period.

[0024] According to the above, the lifetime prediction method of this aspect can predict the periods when multiple power generation units including fuel cells, which are included in the power generation group, each reach their lifetimes with higher accuracy than in the past.

[0025] Specifically, the ratio of the power generation units that generate power among all the power generation units of the fuel cell device within a predetermined period is equivalent to the unit operating rate of the fuel cell device. In other words, the unit operating rate of the fuel cell device is equivalent to the ratio of the power generation units that generate power among all the power generation units when the fuel cell device generates power within a predetermined period.

[0026] Here, when each power generation unit is used substantially equally within a predetermined period, the unit operating rate of the fuel cell device is substantially equal to the equipment utilization rate of each power generation unit. In addition, the higher the equipment utilization rate of the power generation unit, the faster the deterioration of the power generation unit progresses. That is, there is a negative proportional relationship between the above ratio and the lifetime of the power generation unit.

[0027] Based on the above, the lifetime prediction method of this aspect can more accurately predict the periods when each power generation unit reaches its lifetime by considering the above ratio in the prediction of the periods when multiple power generation units including fuel cells each reach their lifetimes, as compared with the case where the ratio is not considered.

[0028] Based on the life prediction method of the first mode, the life prediction method of the second mode of the present disclosure can also calculate the cumulative power generation time of the power generation unit determined to have reached the end of its life based on the prediction of the voltage drop caused by the deterioration of the power generation unit of the fuel cell device.

[0029] It is generally known that as the cumulative power generation time of the power generation unit increases, the voltage of the power generation unit drops due to the deterioration of the power generation unit.

[0030] Therefore, for example, the life prediction method of this mode can predict the voltage that will drop as the future cumulative power generation time elapses based on the change in voltage (measured data) with respect to the cumulative power generation time of the power generation unit, and appropriately calculate the cumulative power generation time when the predicted voltage reaches a pre-determined life determination voltage as the cumulative power generation time when it is determined that the power generation unit has reached the end of its life.

[0031] Based on the life prediction method of the first mode or the second mode, the life prediction method of the third mode of the present disclosure can also calculate the ratio by dividing the value obtained by accumulating the number of power generation units that generate power in each time period within a predetermined period by the value obtained by multiplying the number of all power generation units by the number of time periods within the predetermined period. The predetermined period includes a plurality of time periods.

[0032] According to the above, the life prediction method of this mode can obtain the operation rate of the fuel cell device within a predetermined period based on the cumulative value of the number of power generation units that need to generate power in each time period and the cumulative value of the number of all power generation units in each time period.

[0033] The life prediction device of the fourth mode of the present disclosure is a life prediction device for a fuel cell device including a plurality of power generation units including fuel cells, and includes: a controller that predicts the time when the power generation unit of the fuel cell device reaches the end of its life based on the cumulative power generation time of the power generation unit determined to have reached the end of its life of the fuel cell device and the ratio of the power generation units that generate power among all the power generation units of the fuel cell device within a predetermined period; and a communicator that notifies information indicating the predicted time when the power generation unit of the fuel cell device reaches the end of its life to a display.

[0034] With this configuration, the life prediction device of this mode can predict with higher accuracy than before the time when each of the plurality of power generation units including fuel cells provided in the power generation group reaches the end of its life. In addition, the details of the effects achieved by the life prediction device of this mode are the same as those achieved by the life prediction method of the first mode, so the description is omitted.

[0035] The power generation system according to the fifth aspect of the present disclosure includes: a fuel cell device including a plurality of power generation units including fuel cells; and a life prediction device according to the fourth aspect.

[0036] According to this configuration, the power generation system of this aspect can predict the time when each of the plurality of power generation units including fuel cells in the power generation group reaches the end of its life with higher accuracy than in the past. In addition, the details of the effects achieved by the power generation system of this aspect are the same as those achieved by the life prediction method of the first aspect, and thus the description thereof is omitted.

[0037] Hereinafter, with reference to the drawings, specific examples of the above aspects of the present disclosure will be described. All the specific examples described below represent an example of the above aspects of the present disclosure. Therefore, unless otherwise described in the claims, the shapes, numerical values, components, arrangement positions of the components, connection methods, etc. shown below do not limit the scope of the claims.

[0038] In addition, among the components described below, the components not described in the independent claims representing the most general concept of the present disclosure are described as optional components. In addition, for components denoted by the same reference numerals in the drawings, the description may be omitted sometimes. The drawings schematically show each component for easy understanding, and the shapes and dimensional ratios, etc. may not be accurately shown sometimes.

[0039] Moreover, in the operation of the device, the order of steps may be changed as needed, and well-known steps may be added.

[0040] (Embodiment)

[0041] [Device Configuration]

[0042] Figure 1 FIG. is an example of the power generation system according to the embodiment. Figure 2 FIG. shows Figure 1 an example of the life prediction device.

[0043] The power generation system 10 of the present embodiment includes a fuel cell device 15 and a life prediction device 20. The fuel cell device 15 includes a plurality of power generation units including fuel cells. Here, as Figure 1 shown, the power generation system 10 includes a power generation unit group (group) formed by a plurality of power generation units a1 to an, b1 to bn, c1 to cn, d1 to dn, e1 to en including fuel cells. The power generation system 10 may be, for example, a system that supplies a large amount of power to the power grid. Hereinafter, the Figure 1 configuration of the fuel cell device 15 will be described in more detail.

[0044] The power generation unit group is grouped by a plurality of power generation units a1~an, b1~bn, c1~cn, d1~dn, e1~en. In addition, although not shown in the figure, these power generation units a1~an, b1~bn, c1~cn, d1~dn, e1~en are respectively composed of a fuel cell stack, a power conditioner for converting the DC power generated by the fuel cell stack into AC power and outputting it to the power system, and a control device for controlling the operation of these devices.

[0045] In this example, the power generation unit group is grouped into power generation units a1~an belonging to the fuel cell device 15A, power generation units b1~bn belonging to the fuel cell device 15B, power generation units c1~cn belonging to the fuel cell device 15C, power generation units d1~dn belonging to the fuel cell device 15D, and power generation units e1~en belonging to the fuel cell device 15E. All the power generation units belonging to one group are also simply referred to as "the power generation units within the group". Hereinafter, for the sake of convenience of explanation, the power generation units a1~an, b1~bn, c1~cn, d1~dn, e1~en are sometimes abbreviated as "power generation units 15ij (i = a~e, j = 1~n)".

[0046] However, the above configuration of the fuel cell device 15 is only an example and is not limited to this example. For example, the fuel cell device 15 can also be grouped by the power generation units within a single group.

[0047] The control devices 30A~30E are respectively provided for Group A, Group B, Group C, Group D, and Group E, in other words, respectively provided for the fuel cell devices 15A~15E, and control the respective operations of the power generation units within the group.

[0048] For example, the control device 30A controls the respective outputs of the power generation units a1~an via a communication network so that the power generation units a1~an belonging to Group A can operate efficiently (for example, optimize the lifespan). In addition, a control device may not be provided in the power generation unit, and the operations of the power generation units belonging to each group can be directly controlled by the control devices 30A~30E.

[0049] The control devices 30A~30E only need to have a control function, and include an arithmetic processing unit (not shown), a storage unit (not shown) for storing a control program, and a communicator (not shown). The arithmetic processing unit reads and executes the control program stored in the storage unit, thereby performing predetermined control in the control devices 30A~30E. As the arithmetic processing unit, for example, a microprocessor can be exemplified. As the storage unit, for example, a memory can be exemplified.

[0050] The lifespan prediction device 20 is a device for predicting the lifespan of each power generation unit included in the fuel cell device 15, as Figure 2As shown, a communicator 21 and a controller 23 are provided.

[0051] Based on the cumulative power generation time at which the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) are each determined to have reached the end of their service life and the ratio R1 of the power generation units that generate power among all the power generation units within a predetermined period, the controller 23 predicts the period when each of the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) will reach the end of its service life (hereinafter, referred to as the end-of-life period).

[0052] Herein, the above-mentioned "power generation units that generate power among all the power generation units" includes not only the case where a fuel cell unit determined to be "in need of power generation" in the power generation plan stored in the storage unit of the controller 23 is meant, but also the case where a fuel cell unit that actually generates power is meant.

[0053] In addition, the above-mentioned "predetermined period" can be the entire period of the power generation plan stored in the storage unit of the controller 23 or a part of the period. The "predetermined period" can be, for example, a period of about 1 day to several days, or an appropriate period selected from a longer period of one week (7 days) to one month.

[0054] Furthermore, specific examples of the "cumulative power generation time at which a power generation unit is determined to have reached the end of its service life" and specific examples of the "ratio R1 of the power generation units that generate power among all the power generation units within a predetermined period" are described in the embodiments.

[0055] The communicator 21 is a transmitter that notifies the display 40 of information indicating the end-of-life period of each of the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) of the fuel cell device 15 predicted. This information can be, for example, the year, month, and day displayed on the calendar of the display 40. Examples of the "display 40" include, but are not limited to, the information terminal of a consumer who receives the power supply service of the power generated by the power generation system 10 and the display device of a maintenance company. Thus, consumers who receive the power supply service of the power generated by the power generation system 10 can easily learn the service life of each of the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n).

[0056] In this example, the controller 23 predicts the end-of-life period for each of the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n), but it is not limited thereto.

[0057] For example, the end-of-life period for each of the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) can also be predicted by a control device other than the controller 23 (for example, control devices 30A to 30E).

[0058] In addition, it is also possible to predict the time when the service life of each of the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) reaches by means of a control device other than the controller 23 and the control devices 30A to 30E (for example, the control devices in each power generation unit not shown).

[0059] The controller 23 only needs to have a control function, and includes an arithmetic processing unit (not shown) and a storage unit (not shown) that stores a control program. The arithmetic processing unit reads and executes the control program stored in the storage unit, thereby performing predetermined control in the controller 23. As the arithmetic processing unit, for example, a microprocessor can be exemplified. As the storage unit, for example, a memory can be exemplified.

[0060] The configuration of the power generation system 10 described above is merely an example and is not limited to this example. For example, the service life prediction device 20 may also be integrated with the control devices 30A to 30E. In other words, it may also carry the control functions of the control devices 30A to 30E and directly control the operations of the respective power generation units in the group.

[0061] [Operation]

[0062] Figure 3 FIG. is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the service life prediction device in the power generation system according to the embodiment (a method for predicting the service life of each power generation unit of the fuel cell device). The following operations can be performed, for example, by the arithmetic processing unit of the controller 23 reading the control program from the storage unit of the controller 23. However, it is not necessary for the controller 23 to perform the following operations. The operator may also perform a part of the operations. In the following example, the case where the operations are controlled by the controller 23 will be described.

[0063] When the operation of the service life prediction device 20 starts, in step S1, based on the cumulative power generation time at which each of the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) of the fuel cell device 15 is determined to have reached the service life, and the ratio R1 of the power generation units that generate power among all the power generation units within a predetermined period, the time when the service life of each of the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) reaches is predicted.

[0064] Specifically, the ratio R1 is used to estimate to what extent the cumulative power generation time of the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) in the fuel cell device 15 continues with respect to the continuation of the cumulative power generation time of the future fuel cell device 15, and the time when the cumulative power generation time determined to be the service life is reached is predicted.

[0065] In addition, when making the above prediction, the operation time ratio R2 of the fuel cell device 15 within a predetermined period may also be considered. Details of the operation time ratio R2 are described in the first embodiment.

[0066] In addition, for each of the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n), whenever the cumulative power generation time increases by a certain amount, the operation of step S1 can be repeated. Further, information indicating the time when the respective lifetimes of the predicted power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) are reached can be notified to the display 40 (see Figure 2 ). This information can also be displayed, for example, as the year, month, and day on a calendar on the display 40.

[0067] According to the present embodiment described above, it is possible to predict, with higher accuracy than in the past, the time when each of the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) included in each of the fuel cell devices 15A to 15E reaches the end of its life.

[0068] Specifically, the ratio R1 of the power generation units that generate power among all the power generation units of the fuel cell device 15 within a predetermined period corresponds to the unit operation rate of the fuel cell device 15. Here, when the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) are each used substantially equally within a predetermined period, the unit operation rate of the fuel cell device 15 is substantially equal to the equipment utilization rate of each of the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n). In addition, the higher the equipment utilization rate of the power generation unit, the faster the rate of deterioration of the power generation unit. That is, there is a negative proportional relationship between the ratio R1 and the life of the power generation unit.

[0069] As described above, according to the present embodiment, by considering the ratio R1 in the prediction of the time when each of the plurality of power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) including fuel cells reaches the end of its life, it is possible to more accurately predict the time when each of the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) reaches the end of its life compared to the case where the ratio R1 is not considered.

[0070] (First Embodiment)

[0071] Figure 4 FIG. is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the life prediction device (life prediction method for each power generation unit of a fuel cell device) in the power generation system according to the first embodiment of the embodiment. The following operations can be performed, for example, by the arithmetic processing unit of the controller 23 reading a control program from the storage unit of the controller 23. However, it is not necessary for the controller 23 to perform the following operations. The operator can also perform a part of the operations. In the following example, the case where the operation is controlled by the controller 23 will be described.

[0072] When the operation of the life prediction device 20 starts, in step S11, the ratio R1i (i = a to e) of the power generation units that generate power among all the power generation units of each of the fuel cell devices 15A to 15E is derived within a predetermined period.

[0073] Next, the ratio R1i (i = a to e) in step S11 is used to estimate to what extent the cumulative power generation time of each power generation unit 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) continues with the continuation of the cumulative power generation time of the fuel cell device 15 in the future. Specifically, the future cumulative power generation time of each power generation unit 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) is estimated as "the future cumulative power generation time Tij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) of the fuel cell device 15 × ratio R1". For example, to explain the ratio R1a of the fuel cell device 15A, if the above ratio R1a is 0.5, the future cumulative power generation time of each power generation unit 15aj (j = 1 to n) is estimated to be 0.5 times the future cumulative power generation time Ta of the fuel cell device 15A.

[0074] Then, in step S12, calculate the future cumulative power generation time Tij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) of the fuel cell device 15 when the value obtained by adding the so far cumulative power generation time Tij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) of each power generation unit 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) to "the future cumulative power generation time Tij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) of the fuel cell device 15 × ratio R1i (i = a to e)" is judged to reach the cumulative power generation time at the end of life (life - reaching judgment time TE), and predict the life - reaching time of each power generation unit 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) based on the calculated value of this cumulative power generation time Tij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n).

[0075] In addition, for each of the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n), the operations of step S11 to step S12 can be repeated every time the cumulative power generation time increases by a certain time. Additionally, the information indicating the predicted life - reaching time of each power generation unit 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) can also be notified to the display 40 (refer to Figure 2 ). This information can also be displayed on the display 40, for example, as the year, month, and day on a calendar.

[0076] However, the above - mentioned method for predicting the life of the fuel cell device 15 is only an example and is not limited to this example.

[0077] For example, if it is assumed that the fuel cell device 15 continuously generates power during a predetermined period (operation), and will continue to generate power without interruption in the future, then the future cumulative power generation time Tij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) of the fuel cell device 15 when the life reaches the determination time TE calculated in the above example can be directly used for predicting the life reach period of each power generation unit 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n).

[0078] However, when there is a period of power generation interruption in the fuel cell device 15 during the predetermined period, the time operation rate R2i (i = a to e) of the fuel cell device 15 can also be considered in predicting the life of the power generation unit 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n). In addition, this "time operation rate R2i (i = a to e)" corresponds to the ratio of the time during which the fuel cell devices 15A to 15E each perform power generation operation (operation) during the predetermined period. In other words, the time operation rate R2i (i = a to e) corresponds to the ratio of the time during which at least one of the multiple power generation units included in each of the fuel cell devices 15A to 15E generates power during the predetermined period.

[0079] For example, to explain the time operation rate R2a of the fuel cell device 15A, if the predetermined period of the power generation plan stored in the storage unit of the controller 23 is one month, then the time operation rate R2a is calculated based on the data on how many hours the fuel cell device 15A performs power generation operation in a day and the data on how many days it performs power generation operation in a month. As an example, when the fuel cell device 15A only performs power generation operation for half a day in a day and does not perform power generation operation on weekends, the time operation rate R2a of the fuel cell device 15A is calculated to be approximately 0.37 (= 0.5×22 / 30).

[0080] Moreover, by calculating "the future cumulative power generation time Taj (j = 1 to n) of the fuel cell device 15 when the life reaches the determination time TE / R2a", the life reach period of each power generation unit 15aj (j = 1 to n) is predicted. Specifically, based on a value approximately 2.7 times the future cumulative power generation time Taj (j = 1 to n) of the fuel cell device 15A when the life reaches the determination time TE, the life reach period of each power generation unit 15aj (j = 1 to n) is predicted.

[0081] (Second Embodiment)

[0082] In the life prediction method of the second embodiment of the embodiment, based on the prediction of the voltage drop caused by the deterioration of each power generation unit 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) of the fuel cell device 15, the cumulative power generation time at which it is determined that each power generation unit 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) has reached its life is calculated. Other than this, it is the same as the life prediction method of the embodiment.

[0083] Figure 5 It is a flowchart showing an example of the operation of the life prediction device in the power generation system of the second embodiment of the embodiment (life prediction method for each power generation unit of the fuel cell device). The following operations can be performed, for example, by the arithmetic processing unit of the controller 23 reading a control program from the storage unit of the controller 23. However, it is not necessary for the controller 23 to perform the following operations. The operator can also perform a part of the operations. In the following example, the case where the operations are controlled by the controller 23 will be described.

[0084] First, in step S21, the voltage V during the time period [ta, tb] between the time ta and the time tb after a predetermined time has elapsed since the start of power generation for each power generation unit 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) is derived from known data. As Figure 6 shown, the time period [ta, tb] is an appropriate voltage stabilization timing at which the voltage stabilizes after a predetermined time has elapsed since the start of power generation during rated operation. Therefore, the above voltage V can also be the average value of the voltages within the time period [ta, tb]. The time between the time ta and the time tb can be, for example, about 30 minutes, but is not limited thereto. In addition, the "known data" refers to the voltage at the voltage stabilization timing at the start of power generation in a timely manner from "zero" to the current cumulative power generation time of each power generation unit 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n), and is stored in the storage unit of the power generation system 10.

[0085] Next, in step S22, an approximate straight line L representing the correlation between the cumulative power generation time T and the voltage V of each power generation unit 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) is derived. Specifically, it is generally known that as the cumulative power generation time T of the power generation unit increases, the voltage of the power generation unit drops due to the deterioration of the power generation unit. Thus, based on Figure 7 the voltage V (known data) marked with a circle, the approximate straight line L can be obtained.

[0086] Next, in step S23, based on the approximate straight line L in step S22 and the life determination voltage V1 of the power generation unit, the cumulative power generation time (hereinafter, denoted as the life reach determination time TE) at which it is determined that each power generation unit 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) has reached its life is derived. Specifically, in the power generation system 10, the life determination voltage V1 is a predetermined value. Therefore, asFigure 7 As shown, it is possible to obtain the lifetime reaching determination time TE based on the approximate straight line L and the lifetime determination voltage V1.

[0087] Next, in step S24, based on the lifetime reaching determination time TE of step S23 and Figure 3 the ratio R1 of step S1, the respective lifetime reaching times of the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) are predicted.

[0088] In addition, for each of the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n), whenever the cumulative power generation time T increases by a certain time, the operations of steps S21 to S24 can be repeated. Additionally, information indicating the respective lifetime reaching times of the predicted power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) can also be notified to the display 40 (refer to Figure 2 ). This information can also be displayed on the display 40, for example, as the year, month, and day on a calendar.

[0089] As described above, the lifetime prediction method of the present embodiment can, for example, predict the voltage V that decreases with the passage of future cumulative power generation time based on the change of the voltage V (measured data) with respect to the cumulative power generation time of the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n), and appropriately calculate the cumulative power generation time when the predicted voltage V reaches the pre - determined lifetime determination voltage V1 as the cumulative power generation time (lifetime reaching determination time TE) at which it is determined that each of the power generation units 15ij (i = a to e, j = 1 to n) has reached its lifetime.

[0090] Except for the above - mentioned features, the lifetime prediction method, the lifetime prediction device 20, and the power generation system 10 of the present embodiment can be the same as those of the embodiment or the first embodiment of the embodiment.

[0091] (Third Embodiment)

[0092] In the lifetime prediction method of the second embodiment of the embodiment, the predetermined period includes a plurality of time periods TS, and the ratio R1 is calculated by dividing the value obtained by accumulating the number of power generation units that generate power in each time period TS within the predetermined period by the value obtained by multiplying the number of all power generation units by the number of time periods TS within the predetermined period. Except for this, it is the same as the lifetime prediction method of the embodiment.

[0093] Figure 8 It is a diagram showing an example of the power generation plan of the power generation system of the second embodiment of the embodiment, and is a diagram for explaining an example of the calculation method of the ratio R1 of the power generation units that generate power among all power generation units within the predetermined period.

[0094] In Figure 8In the figure, for the first day, a part of the second day, and a part of the seventh day when the predetermined period of the power generation plan stored in the storage unit of the controller 23 is one week, the parts of the power generation units determined to require power generation (the shaded parts in the figure) and the parts of the power generation units determined not to require power generation (the blank parts in the figure) are shown respectively.

[0095] As Figure 8 shown, the predetermined period of the power generation plan includes a plurality of time periods TS. In addition, the time period TS can be, for example, about several tens of minutes to several hours, but is not limited thereto.

[0096] The unit operation rate (ratio R1) of the fuel cell device 15 is equivalent to the ratio of the total number of power generation units determined to "require power generation" within each time period TS in the predetermined period of the power generation plan to the total number of power generation units determined to "require power generation" within each time period TS assuming that all power generation units of the fuel cell device 15 "require power generation" during all time periods in the predetermined period of the power generation plan.

[0097] That is, the life prediction method of this embodiment can calculate the unit operation rate (ratio R1) of the fuel cell device 15 based on the cumulative value of the number of power generation units determined to "require power generation" within each time period TS and the cumulative value of the number of all power generation units within each time period TS.

[0098] In addition, when it is assumed that all power generation units determined to "require power generation" generate power at the rated operation during the predetermined period of the power generation plan, the unit operation rate (ratio R1) of the fuel cell device 15 can also be calculated as follows using the power generation amount in the power generation plan.

[0099] That is, the unit operation rate (ratio R1) of the fuel cell device 15 is equivalent to the ratio of the total power generation amount of the power generation units determined to "require power generation" among all power generation units to the total power generation amount assuming that all power generation units of the fuel cell device 15 "require power generation" during all time periods in the predetermined period of the power generation plan.

[0100] The above is only an example and is not limited to this example. For example, in the above, the unit operation rate (ratio R1) of the fuel cell device 15 is calculated using the number of power generation units determined to "require power generation" in the power generation plan stored in the storage unit of the controller 23, but for example, the ratio R1 can also be calculated using the number of fuel cell units that actually generated power. In addition, the predetermined period of the above power generation plan is not limited to one week.

[0101] Except for the above features, the life prediction method, life prediction device 20, and power generation system 10 of this embodiment can be the same as any one of the embodiments and the first to second embodiments of the embodiment.

[0102] The embodiments, the first to third embodiments of the embodiment can be combined with each other as long as they do not mutually exclude each other. From the above description, many improvements and other embodiments of the present disclosure will be apparent to those skilled in the art. Therefore, the above description should be construed only as an illustration and is provided for the purpose of teaching those skilled in the art the preferred solutions for implementing the present disclosure. The details of its structure and / or function can be substantially changed without departing from the gist of the present disclosure.

[0103] Industrial Applicability

[0104] One aspect of the present disclosure can be applied to a life prediction method, a life prediction device, and a power generation system that can predict, with higher accuracy than in the past, the time when each of a plurality of power generation units including a fuel cell provided in a power generation group reaches the end of its life.

[0105] Explanation of Reference Numerals

[0106] 10: Power generation system

[0107] 15: Fuel cell device

[0108] 15A: Fuel cell device

[0109] 15B: Fuel cell device

[0110] 15C: Fuel cell device

[0111] 15D: Fuel cell device

[0112] 15E: Fuel cell device

[0113] 20: Life prediction device

[0114] 21: Communicator

[0115] 23: Controller

[0116] 30A: Control device

[0117] 30B: Control device

[0118] 30C: Control device

[0119] 30D: Control device

[0120] 30E: Control device

[0121] 40: Display

[0122] a1 to an: Power generation units

[0123] b1 to bn: Power generation units

[0124] c1 to cn: power generation units

[0125] d1 to dn: power generation units

[0126] e1 to en: power generation units

Claims

1. A method for predicting the lifespan, which is a method for predicting the lifespan of a fuel cell device having a plurality of power generation units including fuel cells, Based on the cumulative power generation time of the power generation unit determined to have reached the lifespan among the power generation units of the fuel cell device, and the ratio of the power generation units that generate power among all the power generation units of the fuel cell device within a predetermined period, predict the period when the power generation units of the fuel cell device reach the lifespan.

2. The lifespan prediction method according to claim 1, Based on the prediction of the voltage drop caused by the deterioration of the power generation unit of the fuel cell device, calculate the cumulative power generation time of the power generation unit determined to have reached the lifespan.

3. The lifespan prediction method according to claim 1 or 2, The predetermined period includes a plurality of time periods, and the ratio is calculated by dividing the value obtained by accumulating the number of the power generation units that generate power in each time period within the predetermined period by the value obtained by multiplying the number of all the power generation units by the number of the time periods within the predetermined period.

4. A lifespan prediction device, which is a lifespan prediction device of a fuel cell device having a plurality of power generation units including fuel cells, and includes: A controller that predicts the period when the power generation units of the fuel cell device reach the lifespan based on the cumulative power generation time of the power generation unit determined to have reached the lifespan among the power generation units of the fuel cell device, and the ratio of the power generation units that generate power among all the power generation units of the fuel cell device within a predetermined period; and A communicator that notifies information indicating the predicted period when the power generation units of the fuel cell device reach the lifespan to a display.

5. A power generation system, including: A fuel cell device having a plurality of power generation units including fuel cells; and The lifespan prediction device according to claim 4.

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