Evaluation method for water storage level of cascade reservoir

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for evaluating the water storage level of a cascade reservoir, and relates to the technical field of reservoir dispatching. The evaluation method comprises the following steps: acquiring related basic data of the cascade reservoir; determining a water storage scheduling period and a calculation period of the cascade reservoir; obtaining the water storage capacity of each calculation time period of each reservoir in the water storage scheduling period over the years; calculating the overall water storage capacity of the cascade reservoir in each calculation period of the water storage scheduling period of the cascade reservoir year by year, and obtaining the annual minimum to-be-stored capacity in all the calculation periods of the water storage scheduling period of the cascade reservoir year by year; constructing a distribution function of the annual minimum storage capacity of the cascade reservoir; and constructing a cascade reservoir water storage level evaluation system. The method has the advantages of being simple, convenient, practical, reasonable, reliable, easy to popularize and the like, an index system for dynamically evaluating the water storage level of the cascade reservoir is constructed according to the adjusting capacity, the incoming water situation and the water storage state of the cascade reservoir, the current water storage level of the cascade reservoir can be rapidly evaluated, and a future dispatching operation strategy is guided.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of reservoir operation, and particularly to an evaluation method for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs. Background Art

[0002] With the large-scale construction and operation of reservoir groups, the contradiction between water storage and power generation of cascade reservoirs at the end of the flood season has become increasingly prominent. On the one hand, in order not to affect the comprehensive benefits during the dry season, the reservoir needs to appropriately control the outflow discharge and try to ensure that the cascade reservoirs store more water; on the other hand, each reservoir power station needs to increase the power generation flow in a timely manner to complete the annual power generation assessment index. Especially in the case of typical dry years, how to balance the short-term power generation benefit and the long-term water supply benefit of cascade reservoirs is a complex problem faced in real-time operation. At the same time, due to differences in tasks such as flood control and power generation, the starting and ending times of water storage, the water storage processes, and the water inflow compositions of reservoirs are different, resulting in a certain degree of asynchrony in the water storage of cascade reservoirs, which means that it is difficult for cascade reservoirs to reach full storage synchronously.

[0003] Currently, since the evaluation method for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs is still relatively blank, in order to guide the operation of cascade reservoirs during the water storage period, the operation and management unit usually formulates operation strategies according to the goal of trying to reach full storage. This strategy sacrifices the annual power generation of cascade reservoirs. Especially in the case of typical dry years, how to balance the energy storage and power generation of cascade reservoirs with limited water volume is an urgent problem to be solved. Summary of the Invention

[0004] In order to overcome the deficiencies of the prior art, the purpose of the present invention is to provide an evaluation method for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs, realizing the dynamic evaluation and operation of the water storage level of cascade reservoirs, and timely adjusting the reservoir water storage strategy according to the full storage degree and water inflow level of cascade reservoirs, providing a strong reference for the operation decision-making of cascade reservoirs.

[0005] To achieve the above purpose, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is as follows:

[0006] An evaluation method for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs, characterized in that it includes the following steps:

[0007] 1) Obtain the relevant basic data of the cascade reservoirs;

[0008] 2) Based on the above basic data, determine the water storage operation period and calculation time period of the cascade reservoirs;

[0009] 3) Conduct runoff regulation calculations year by year for the long-term runoff data to obtain the storage reservoir volume of each reservoir at each calculation time period during the water storage operation period over the years;

[0010] 4) Based on the reservoir storage capacity, calculate the overall reservoir storage capacity of all reservoirs at each calculation period during the storage operation period of the cascade reservoirs year by year, and obtain the annual minimum storage capacity to be reserved and the minimum storage capacity matrix during all calculation periods in the storage operation period of the cascade reservoirs year by year;

[0011] 5) Construct the distribution function of the annual minimum storage capacity to be reserved for the cascade reservoirs;

[0012] 6) Based on the distribution function of the annual minimum storage capacity to be reserved, construct an evaluation system for the storage level of the cascade reservoirs, which is used to conduct hierarchical evaluation on the storage level of the cascade reservoirs.

[0013] Preferably, in step 1), the basic data includes the engineering characteristic data of the cascade reservoirs, the dispatching operation mode, and the long-term runoff data; the engineering characteristic data of the cascade reservoirs includes the normal storage level, dead storage level, and water level - storage capacity curve of each reservoir included in the evaluation scope; the dispatching operation mode includes the start and end times, water storage process, and dispatching rules of each reservoir during the water storage period.

[0014] Furthermore, the duration of the long-term runoff data is not less than 30 years.

[0015] Preferably, step 2) includes:

[0016] 2.1) According to the time scale of the annual runoff series in the long-term runoff data of the cascade reservoirs, set the unified time step for the dispatching calculation during the storage operation period of the cascade reservoirs;

[0017] 2.2) Based on the dispatching rules of each reservoir, according to the start and end times of the water storage period of each reservoir, obtain the earliest water storage start time node and the latest full storage time node among all reservoirs as the start water storage time node and full storage time node of the cascade reservoirs respectively, so as to determine the storage operation period of the cascade reservoirs and obtain the water storage duration of the cascade reservoirs;

[0018] 2.3) Based on the unified time step, divide the annual water storage duration of the cascade reservoirs into n calculation periods.

[0019] Preferably, step 3) includes:

[0020] 3.1) Based on the dispatching operation mode of the cascade reservoirs, construct a joint runoff regulation model for the cascade reservoir group;

[0021] 3.2) Based on the constructed joint runoff regulation model for the cascade reservoir group, use the long-term runoff data to carry out runoff regulation calculation for the cascade reservoir group, and calculate the reservoir storage capacity of each reservoir at each calculation period during the storage operation period of the cascade reservoirs year by year.

[0022] Preferably, step 4) includes:

[0023] 4.1) Based on the reservoir storage capacity, the reservoir storage capacity matrix for each calculation period during the water storage and regulation period of the reservoir is sorted out year by year:

[0024]

[0025] In the formula: V 蓄,i is the reservoir storage capacity matrix of reservoir i; is the reservoir storage capacity of reservoir i in the k-th calculation period of the m-th year, is the reservoir capacity of reservoir i in the k-th calculation period of the m-th year, V i,dwl is the reservoir capacity at the dead water level of reservoir i; i = 1, 2, …, s - 1, s, where s is the total number of reservoirs in the cascade reservoir; m = 1, 2, …, y - 1, y, where y is the duration of the long-term runoff data in years; k = 1, 2, …, n - 1, n, where n is the total number of calculation periods during the water storage and regulation period of the cascade reservoir;

[0026] 4.2) Statistically calculate the overall reservoir storage capacity of the cascade reservoir year by year and for each period, and obtain the overall reservoir storage capacity matrix of the cascade reservoir; the calculation method of the overall reservoir storage capacity is as follows:

[0027]

[0028] Among them, is the overall reservoir storage capacity of all reservoirs in the cascade reservoir in the k-th calculation period of the m-th year;

[0029] The overall reservoir storage capacity matrix of the cascade reservoir is as follows:

[0030]

[0031] V 蓄,tot is the overall reservoir storage capacity matrix of the cascade reservoir over the years;

[0032] 4.3) Statistically calculate the maximum overall reservoir storage capacity of the cascade reservoir in all calculation periods of the current year year by year, and obtain the maximum overall reservoir storage capacity matrix of the cascade reservoir

[0033]

[0034] Among them, is the maximum overall reservoir storage capacity of the cascade reservoir in all calculation periods within the m-th year;

[0035] 4.4) Based on the maximum overall reservoir storage capacity of the cascade reservoir, obtain the minimum storage capacity to be reserved in all calculation periods during the current year's water storage and regulation period of the cascade reservoir year by year, so as to obtain the minimum storage capacity to be reserved matrix of the cascade reservoir:

[0036]

[0037] Among them, is the matrix of the minimum storage capacity to be reserved for cascade reservoirs; V i,nwl is the storage capacity at the normal pool level of reservoir i; is the annual minimum storage capacity to be reserved in all calculation periods within the mth year of the cascade reservoir.

[0038] Preferably, step 5) includes:

[0039] 5.1) Characterize the probability distribution of the annual minimum storage capacity to be reserved for the cascade reservoir through the probability density distribution function;

[0040] 5.2) Calculate the parameters of the probability density distribution function according to the elements of the matrix of the minimum storage capacity to be reserved for the cascade reservoir over the years ;

[0041] 5.3) Based on the parameters, determine the distribution function of the annual minimum storage capacity to be reserved for the cascade reservoir

[0042] Furthermore, the probability density distribution function is obtained through the Pearson type III distribution curve; the parameters of the probability density distribution function are calculated by the weight function method or the least square estimation method.

[0043] Preferably, step 6) includes:

[0044] 6.1) Introduce frequency indices P1, P2, …, P l-1 , P l , and there is 0 < P1 < P2 < … < P l-1 < P l < 1; where l is the number of frequency indices, and the values of the frequency indices are determined according to the actual needs of cascade reservoir operation;

[0045] 6.2) According to the distribution function, deduce the storage capacity to be reserved corresponding to different frequency indices:

[0046]

[0047] In the formula, represents the storage capacity to be reserved for the cascade reservoir with a frequency of P1, and so on for others;

[0048] 6.3) According to the storage capacity to be reserved corresponding to different frequency indices, construct an evaluation system for the water storage level of the cascade reservoir; by obtaining the storage capacity to be reserved for the cascade reservoir under actual conditions and comparing it with the storage capacity to be reserved at all levels in the evaluation system for the water storage level of the cascade reservoir, the hierarchical evaluation of the water storage level of the cascade reservoir can be realized.

[0049] Preferably, in the evaluation system for the water storage level of the cascade reservoir, l = 4, and the overall water storage situation is classified into good, relatively good, general, relatively poor, and poor:

[0050] If then the overall water storage situation is good;

[0051] If then the overall water storage situation is relatively good;

[0052] If then the overall water storage situation is average;

[0053] If then the overall water storage situation is relatively poor;

[0054] If then the overall water storage situation is poor.

[0055] Furthermore, l = 4, P1 = 0.1, P2 = 0.2, P3 = 0.5, P4 = 0.8.

[0056] The present invention also discloses an evaluation system for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs, which is used to implement the above-mentioned evaluation method for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs. The special features are as follows: including:

[0057] A data storage module, which is used to store the relevant basic information of cascade reservoirs;

[0058] A module for obtaining the evaluation index system of the water storage level of cascade reservoirs, which is used to construct an evaluation index system for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs based on the basic information stored in the data storage module;

[0059] An evaluation module, which is used to evaluate and classify the water storage level of cascade reservoirs based on the evaluation index system of the water storage level of cascade reservoirs.

[0060] The present invention also discloses a water storage operation method for cascade reservoirs. The special features are as follows: including:

[0061] a) Using the above-mentioned evaluation method for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs to evaluate and classify the water storage level of cascade reservoirs;

[0062] b) According to the evaluation results and the water storage situation in the extended period, putting forward a guiding strategy for coordinating power generation and water storage in cascade reservoirs.

[0063] Furthermore, the guiding strategy includes:

[0064] If the overall water storage situation level is poor, according to the predicted inflow in the extended period, reduce the power generation flow of cascade reservoirs and increase water storage to make the water storage situation level reach above average;

[0065] If the overall water storage situation level is relatively poor, according to the predicted inflow in the extended period, if the predicted inflow is relatively abundant, reduce the power generation flow of cascade reservoirs and increase water storage to make the water storage situation level reach good; if the predicted inflow is average or scarce, reduce the power generation flow of cascade reservoirs and increase water storage to make the water storage situation level reach above average;

[0066] If the overall water storage situation level is average, according to the extended - period forecast of incoming water, if the forecast incoming water is relatively abundant, reduce the power generation flow of cascade reservoirs and increase water storage to make the water storage situation level reach good; if the forecast incoming water is average or scarce, reduce the power generation flow of cascade reservoirs and increase water storage to make the water storage situation level reach better or above.

[0067] If the overall water storage situation level is good or better, increase the power generation flow of cascade reservoirs and maintain the water storage situation of cascade reservoirs at the current level.

[0068] The relatively abundant forecast incoming water means that the extended - period forecast incoming water volume is more than 20% higher than the multi - year average; the average forecast incoming water means that the extended - period forecast incoming water volume changes less than 20% compared with the multi - year average; the scarce forecast incoming water means that the extended - period forecast incoming water volume is less than 20% lower than the multi - year average.

[0069] The present invention also discloses a cascade reservoir water storage scheduling system for implementing the above - mentioned cascade reservoir water storage scheduling method, which is characterized in that it includes:

[0070] An evaluation module for evaluating and grading the water storage level of cascade reservoirs;

[0071] A strategy output module for obtaining and outputting a guiding strategy for coordinating power generation and water storage of cascade reservoirs based on the grading result of the evaluation module.

[0072] The present invention also discloses a computer - readable storage medium, which is characterized in that the computer - readable storage medium stores computer instructions, and the computer instructions are used to make a computer execute the above - mentioned evaluation method of cascade reservoir water storage level or cascade reservoir water storage scheduling method.

[0073] The present invention also discloses an electronic device, which is characterized in that it includes: a memory and a processor, the memory and the processor are communicatively connected to each other, the memory stores computer instructions, and the processor executes the above - mentioned evaluation method of cascade reservoir water storage level or cascade reservoir water storage scheduling method by executing the computer instructions.

[0074] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0075] The evaluation method of cascade reservoir water storage level disclosed by the present invention has the advantages of being simple, practical, reasonable, reliable, and easy to promote. According to the regulation capacity, incoming water situation and water storage state of cascade reservoirs, an index system for dynamically evaluating the water storage level of cascade reservoirs is constructed, which can quickly evaluate the current water storage level of cascade reservoirs, provide guidance for future scheduling operation strategies, and timely warn of potential under - storage risks in reservoir scheduling, conforming to the actual operation characteristics of reservoir scheduling, and can provide support for reservoir operation management departments to adjust scheduling strategies in real - time.

[0076] The present invention fully considers the actual operation characteristics and historical water storage laws of cascade reservoirs, and reasonably gives evaluation indexes for the water storage levels of cascade reservoirs, which conforms to the actual dispatching and operation characteristics of the reservoirs.

[0077] The present invention can quickly give water storage strategies under different dispatching stages and different incoming water conditions, timely adjust the water storage targets of the reservoirs, and provide effective support for the reservoir dispatching strategies. Description of the Drawings

[0078] Figure 1 It is the implementation flowchart of an evaluation method for the water storage level of a cascade reservoir according to the present invention. Detailed Embodiments

[0079] In order to better explain the present invention, the main content of the present invention is further clarified below in conjunction with the drawings and specific embodiments, but the content of the present invention is not limited to the following embodiments.

[0080] As Figure 1 shown, an evaluation method for the water storage level of a cascade reservoir includes the following steps:

[0081] 1) Collect basic data related to cascade reservoirs such as engineering characteristics data, dispatching operation modes, and long-term runoff data series of cascade reservoirs.

[0082] 1.1) Determine the reservoir range included in the evaluation scope, assuming there are s reservoirs in total.

[0083] 1.2) Collect engineering characteristics data of cascade reservoirs, including the normal storage level, dead storage level, water level-storage capacity curve, etc. of each reservoir; the long-term runoff data series is y years in total, y≥30, and the time scale of the annual runoff series is ten-day average or daily average. The dispatching operation mode includes the start and end times, water storage process, dispatching rules, etc. of the water storage period of each reservoir.

[0084] 2) Based on the above basic data, determine the water storage dispatching period and calculation period of the cascade reservoir to determine the water storage dispatching period and calculation period used in steps 3) and 4). Specifically, it includes:

[0085] 2.1) Based on the time scale (ten-day or daily) of the long-term natural runoff data, set a unified time step dt for the simulation calculation of the water storage period of each reservoir.

[0086] 2.2) Since the start time and full storage time of each reservoir usually vary from year to year, count the earliest start water storage time node T0 and the latest full storage time node T1 specified in the dispatching rules of all reservoirs as the start water storage time node and full storage time node of the cascade reservoir respectively, calculate the water storage duration TS of the cascade reservoir, and divide the annual water storage duration TS into n calculation periods, where n = TS / dt.

[0087] 3) Based on the above basic data, construct a joint runoff regulation model for cascade reservoirs. Using long - series runoff data, conduct runoff regulation calculations for the cascade reservoirs to obtain the water storage conditions of each reservoir in each calculation period year by year during the above - mentioned water storage and operation period. Specifically, it includes:

[0088] 3.1) Based on the operation mode of cascade reservoir regulation, including the start and end times of water storage and the water storage process of each reservoir, construct a joint runoff regulation model for cascade reservoirs.

[0089] 3.2) Based on the constructed joint runoff regulation model for cascade reservoirs, using long - series runoff data, conduct runoff regulation calculations for the cascade reservoirs, and calculate the water storage capacity of each reservoir in each calculation period year by year.

[0090] 4) Based on the results of runoff regulation calculations, calculate the overall water storage capacity and the water storage capacity to be reserved of all reservoirs in each calculation period during the water storage and operation period of cascade reservoirs year by year, and obtain the minimum water storage capacity to be reserved and the minimum water storage capacity matrix during each water storage period every year. Specifically, it includes:

[0091] 4.1) Based on the results of runoff regulation calculations, sort out the water storage capacity matrix \(V\) of reservoir \(i\) in each year and each calculation period: 蓄,i :

[0092]

[0093] In the formula: is the water storage capacity of reservoir \(i\) in the \(m\) - th year and the \(k\) - th calculation period, is the reservoir capacity of reservoir \(i\) in the \(m\) - th year and the \(k\) - th calculation period, and \(V\) i,dwl is the reservoir capacity at the dead water level of reservoir \(i\); \(i = 1,2,\cdots,s - 1,s\); \(m = 1,2,\cdots,y - 1,y\); \(k = 1,2,\cdots,n - 1,n\).

[0094] 4.2) Statistically calculate the overall water storage capacity of cascade reservoirs year by year and period by period:

[0095]

[0096] is the overall water storage capacity of cascade reservoirs in the \(m\) - th year and the \(k\) - th calculation period.

[0097] According to the overall water storage capacity of cascade reservoirs in each year and each calculation period Sort out the overall water storage capacity matrix \(V\) of cascade reservoirs 蓄,tot :

[0098]

[0099] 4.3) Statistically count the maximum overall storage capacity of cascade reservoirs for all calculation periods in the current year year by year, and organize to obtain the matrix of the maximum overall storage capacity of cascade reservoirs over the years.

[0100]

[0101] Among them, is the maximum value of the overall storage capacity of the cascade reservoirs in all calculation periods within the m-th year, that is, the maximum overall storage capacity.

[0102] 4.4) Convert the data of the maximum storage capacity of cascade reservoirs to obtain the matrix of the minimum storage capacity to be reserved for cascade reservoirs over the years.

[0103]

[0104] V i,nwl is the storage capacity at the normal storage level of reservoir i; is the minimum storage capacity to be reserved in all calculation periods within the m-th year of the cascade reservoirs, that is, the annual minimum storage capacity to be reserved in the m-th year.

[0105] 5) Construct the distribution function of the annual minimum storage capacity to be reserved for cascade reservoirs. Specifically, it includes:

[0106] 5.1) Introduce the Pearson type III distribution curve to characterize the probability density distribution function of the annual minimum storage capacity to be reserved for cascade reservoirs over the years.

[0107]

[0108] In the formula: Γ(α) is the gamma function of α, and α, β, and a0 are the shape, scale, and location parameters of the Pearson type III distribution curve respectively. Among them:

[0109]

[0110] C s 、C v are the statistical parameters of the minimum storage capacity to be reserved matrix and are the mean value, skewness coefficient, and coefficient of variation respectively.

[0111] 5.2) According to the elements of the minimum storage capacity to be reserved matrix , use the weight function method or the least squares estimation method to calculate C s 、C v and other statistical parameters.

[0112] 5.3) Integrate the probability density distribution function to derive the annual minimum storage capacity to be reserved for cascade reservoirs over the years Distribution function:

[0113]

[0114] 6) Based on the above distribution function, construct an evaluation index system for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs. According to the distribution of the annual minimum storage capacity to be reserved in the cascade reservoirs for runoff regulation calculation of long-term series of runoff data, classify the storage capacity to be reserved, and construct an evaluation index system for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs. By combining historical data and quantifying risks, the scientificity, foresight and safety of cascade reservoir operation are significantly improved.

[0115] The specific method for constructing the above evaluation index system for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs includes:

[0116] 6.1) Introduce frequency indices P1, P2, …, P l-1 , P l , and there are:

[0117] 0 < P1 < P2 < … < P l-1 < P l < 1

[0118] Among them, l is the total number of frequency indices, and the values of the frequency indices can be determined according to the actual needs of cascade reservoir operation. l = 4, P1 = 0.1, P2 = 0.2, P3 = 0.5, P4 = 0.8.

[0119] 6.2) According to the above distribution function of the minimum storage capacity to be reserved, deduce the storage capacity to be reserved corresponding to different frequency indices:

[0120]

[0121] In the formula: represents the storage capacity to be reserved of the cascade reservoir with a frequency of P1, and so on for others.

[0122] 6.3) According to the storage capacity to be reserved corresponding to different frequency indices, construct an evaluation system for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs, and classify the overall water storage situation as good, relatively good, general, relatively poor, and poor:

[0123] If then the overall water storage situation is good;

[0124] If then the overall water storage situation is relatively good;

[0125] If then the overall water storage situation is general;

[0126] If then the overall water storage situation is relatively poor;

[0127] If Then the overall water storage situation is poor.

[0128] By obtaining the storage capacity to be stored in cascade reservoirs under actual conditions and comparing it with the storage capacities to be stored at all levels in the cascade reservoir water storage level evaluation system, the hierarchical evaluation of the cascade reservoir water storage level can be realized.

[0129] The present invention also provides a method for regulating and dispatching the water storage of cascade reservoirs, including:

[0130] a) Evaluating and grading the water storage level of cascade reservoirs by using the above-mentioned evaluation method for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs;

[0131] b) According to the grading results and the water storage situation in the extended period, based on the cascade reservoir water storage level evaluation index system, a guiding strategy for coordinating power generation and water storage of cascade reservoirs is proposed. The specific strategy is as follows:

[0132] If the overall water storage situation level is "poor", according to the predicted incoming water in the extended period, the power generation flow of the cascade reservoirs should be reduced as much as possible, and the water storage should be increased to make the water storage situation level reach above "general" as much as possible.

[0133] If the overall water storage situation level is "relatively poor", according to the predicted incoming water in the extended period, if the predicted incoming water is relatively abundant, the power generation flow of the cascade reservoirs should be reduced, and the water storage should be increased to make the water storage situation level reach "good"; if the predicted incoming water is average or scarce, the power generation flow of the cascade reservoirs can be reduced, and the water storage should be increased to make the water storage situation level reach above "general" as much as possible.

[0134] If the overall water storage situation level is "general", according to the predicted incoming water in the extended period, if the predicted incoming water is relatively abundant, the power generation flow of the cascade reservoirs should be reduced, and the water storage should be increased to make the water storage situation level reach "good"; if the predicted incoming water is average or scarce, the power generation flow of the cascade reservoirs can be reduced, and the water storage should be increased to make the water storage situation level reach above "relatively good" as much as possible.

[0135] If the overall water storage situation level is "good" or "relatively good", on the basis of maintaining the water storage situation of the cascade reservoirs, the power generation flow of the cascade reservoirs can be appropriately increased.

[0136] The predicted incoming water being relatively abundant means that the predicted incoming water volume in the extended period is more than 20% higher than the multi-year average value; the predicted incoming water being average means that the predicted incoming water volume in the extended period changes by less than 20% compared with the multi-year average value; the predicted incoming water being scarce means that the predicted incoming water volume in the extended period is less than 20% lower than the multi-year average value.

[0137] The present invention also provides an evaluation system for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs, including:

[0138] A data storage module for storing basic data related to cascade reservoirs such as the engineering characteristics data of cascade reservoirs, the dispatching operation mode, and long-term runoff data.

[0139] A step - cascade reservoir water storage level evaluation index system acquisition module, which is used to construct a step - cascade reservoir water storage level evaluation index system based on the basic data stored in the data storage module;

[0140] An evaluation module, which is used to evaluate and grade the water storage level of the step - cascade reservoir based on the step - cascade reservoir water storage level evaluation index system.

[0141] The present invention also provides a step - cascade reservoir water storage scheduling system, including:

[0142] An evaluation module, which is used to evaluate and grade the water storage level of the step - cascade reservoir based on the step - cascade reservoir water storage level evaluation index system;

[0143] A strategy output module, which is used to obtain and output a guiding strategy for coordinating power generation and water storage of the step - cascade reservoir based on the grading result of the evaluation module.

[0144] The present invention also provides a computer - readable storage medium, which stores computer instructions for causing a computer to execute the above - mentioned step - cascade reservoir water storage level evaluation method or step - cascade reservoir water storage scheduling method.

[0145] The present invention also provides an electronic device, including: a memory and a processor, which are communicatively connected to each other. The memory stores computer instructions, and the processor executes the computer instructions to execute the above - mentioned step - cascade reservoir water storage level evaluation method or step - cascade reservoir water storage scheduling method.

[0146] Taking the step - cascade reservoirs in the upper reaches of a certain river as an example, the dynamic evaluation method and scheduling of the step - cascade reservoir water storage level using the method proposed by the present invention are carried out, including the following steps:

[0147] 1) Collect the normal storage levels, dead levels, water level - storage capacity curves, start and end times of the water storage period, operating water levels, and long - series natural runoff data (1959 - 2014) of the ten - day average of 30 controlled reservoirs in the upper reaches of a certain river.

[0148] 2) Determine that the time step dt for calculating the step - cascade reservoir is ten - day, the water storage scheduling period is from August 1st to October 31st, and the number of calculation periods per year is n = 12;

[0149] 3) Based on the scheduling operation mode, construct a joint runoff regulation model for the step - cascade reservoir group, and use the long - series runoff data from 1959 to 2014 to carry out runoff regulation calculations to calculate the water storage conditions of each reservoir in each calculation period year by year.

[0150] 4) Statistically calculate the reservoir storage capacity of each reservoir for each ten-day period from August 1st to October 31st during the historical storage periods, calculate the overall reservoir storage capacity of all reservoirs in the cascade reservoir for each ten-day period and each year, and on this basis, calculate the maximum reservoir storage capacity and the minimum storage capacity to be reserved for all calculation periods of the cascade reservoir each year. The specific data is shown in Table 1.

[0151] 5) Construct the distribution function of the annual minimum storage capacity to be reserved for the cascade reservoir, calculate the parameters of the probability distribution function using the least squares estimation method, and derive the distribution function curve of the minimum storage capacity to be reserved for the cascade reservoir. Distribution function curve.

[0152] 6) Introduce frequency indices P1 = 0.1, P2 = 0.2, P3 = 0.5, P4 = 0.8. The storage capacities to be reserved corresponding to different frequency indices are shown in Table 2. The classification evaluation system corresponding to storage capacities to be reserved of different magnitudes is shown in Table 3.

[0153] Table 1: Maximum reservoir storage capacity and minimum storage capacity to be reserved for the cascade reservoir over the years

[0154]

[0155] Table 2: Storage capacities to be reserved corresponding to different frequency indices

[0156] Calculation frequency (%) 10 20 50 80 <![CDATA[Storage capacity to be reserved (100 million m 3 )]]> 91.6 52.6 16.5 9.6

[0157] Table 3: Classification evaluation table corresponding to storage capacities to be reserved of different magnitudes

[0158] <![CDATA[Storage capacity to be reserved (100 million m 3 )]]> <9.6 [9.6，16.5) [16.5，52.6) [52.6，91.6) ≥91.6 Evaluation level Good Relatively good Average Relatively poor Poor

[0159] The dispatching method is as follows:

[0160] If the actual storage capacity to be reserved ≥ 9.16 billion m³, then the overall water storage situation level is "poor". According to the extended period forecast of the incoming water, reduce the power generation flow of the cascade reservoir and increase the water storage to make the water storage situation level reach "general" or above, so that the actual storage capacity to be reserved < 5.26 billion m³. 3 3 .

[0161] If 5.26 billion m³ ≤ the actual storage capacity to be reserved < 9.16 billion m³, then the overall water storage situation level is "relatively poor". According to the extended period forecast of the incoming water, if the forecast incoming water is relatively abundant, reduce the power generation flow of the cascade reservoir and increase the water storage to make the water storage situation level reach "good", that is, make the actual storage capacity to be reserved < 0.96 billion m³; if the forecast incoming water is average or scarce, reduce the power generation flow of the cascade reservoir and increase the water storage to make the water storage situation level reach "general" or above, so that the actual storage capacity to be reserved < 5.26 billion m³. 3 3 3 ; if the forecast incoming water is average or scarce, reduce the power generation flow of the cascade reservoir and increase the water storage to make the water storage situation level reach "general" or above, so that the actual storage capacity to be reserved < 5.26 billion m³. 3 .

[0162] If 1.65 billion m³3 ≤ actual storage capacity to be filled < 5260 million m³ 3 , then the overall water storage situation level is "average". According to the extended - period forecast of incoming water, if the forecast incoming water is relatively abundant, reduce the power - generation flow of cascade reservoirs and increase water storage to make the water storage situation level reach "good", that is, the actual storage capacity to be filled < 960 million m³ 3 ; if the forecast incoming water is average or scarce, reduce the power - generation flow of cascade reservoirs and increase water storage to make the water storage situation level reach above "fairly good", that is, the actual storage capacity to be filled < 1650 million m³ 3 .

[0163] If the actual storage capacity to be filled < 1650 million m³ 3 , the overall water storage situation level is "good" or "fairly good", and the power - generation flow of cascade reservoirs can be increased and the water storage situation of cascade reservoirs can be maintained at the current level.

[0164] Other parts not described belong to the prior art.

Claims

1. An evaluation method for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs, characterized in that: It includes the following steps: 1) Obtain the relevant basic data of the cascade reservoirs; 2) Based on the above basic data, determine the water storage scheduling period and calculation periods of the cascade reservoirs; 3) Conduct runoff regulation calculations year by year for the long series of runoff data, and obtain the storage reservoir capacities of each reservoir for each calculation period within the annual water storage scheduling period; 4) Based on the above storage reservoir capacities, calculate year by year the overall storage reservoir capacity of all reservoirs for each calculation period within the water storage scheduling period of the cascade reservoirs, and obtain year by year the annual minimum storage requirement capacity and the minimum storage requirement capacity matrix for all calculation periods within the water storage scheduling period of the cascade reservoirs; 5) Construct the distribution function of the annual minimum storage requirement capacity of the cascade reservoirs; 6) Based on the distribution function of the annual minimum storage requirement capacity, construct an evaluation system for the water storage level of the cascade reservoirs, which is used to conduct hierarchical evaluation on the water storage level of the cascade reservoirs.

2. The evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein: In step 1), the above basic data includes the engineering characteristic data of the cascade reservoirs, the dispatching operation mode, and the long series of runoff data; the engineering characteristic data of the cascade reservoirs includes the normal storage level, dead storage level, and water level - storage capacity curve of each reservoir included in the evaluation scope; the dispatching operation mode includes the start and end times, water storage process, and dispatching rules of the water storage period of each reservoir.

3. The evaluation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step 2) includes: 2.1) According to the time scale of the annual runoff series in the long series of runoff data of the cascade reservoirs, set the unified time step for the dispatching calculation of the water storage scheduling period of the cascade reservoirs; 2.2) Based on the dispatching rules of each reservoir, according to the start and end times of the water storage period of each reservoir, obtain the earliest start - water - storage time node and the latest full - water - storage time node among all reservoirs as the start - water - storage time node and full - water - storage time node of the cascade reservoirs respectively, so as to determine the water storage scheduling period of the cascade reservoirs and obtain the water storage duration of the cascade reservoirs; 2.3) Based on the above unified time step, divide the annual water storage duration of the cascade reservoirs into n calculation periods.

4. The evaluation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step 3) includes: 3.1) Based on the dispatching operation mode of the cascade reservoirs, construct a joint runoff regulation model for the cascade reservoir group; 3.2) Based on the constructed joint runoff regulation model for the cascade reservoir group, use the above long series of runoff data to conduct runoff regulation calculations for the cascade reservoir group, and calculate year by year the storage reservoir capacities of each reservoir for each calculation period within the water storage scheduling period of the cascade reservoirs.

5. The evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein: Step 4) includes: 4.1) Based on the above storage reservoir capacities, organize year by year to obtain the storage reservoir capacity matrix of the reservoir for each calculation period within the water storage scheduling period: Where: V 蓄,i is the reservoir storage matrix of reservoir i; is the reservoir storage of reservoir i at the k-th calculation period in the m-th year, is the reservoir capacity of reservoir i at the k-th calculation period in the m-th year, V i,dwl is the reservoir capacity at the dead water level of reservoir i; i = 1, 2, …, s - 1, s, where s is the total number of reservoirs in the cascade reservoir; m = 1, 2, …, y - 1, y, where y is the duration of the long-term runoff data series in years; k = 1, 2, …, n - 1, n, where n is the total number of calculation periods during the reservoir storage operation period of the cascade reservoir; 4.2) Statistically calculate year by year and period by period the overall storage reservoir capacity of the cascade reservoirs, and obtain the overall storage reservoir capacity matrix of the cascade reservoirs; the calculation method of the overall storage reservoir capacity is as follows: Among them, is the overall reservoir storage capacity of all reservoirs in the cascade reservoir in the m-th year and the k-th calculation period; The overall storage reservoir capacity matrix of the cascade reservoirs is as follows: V 蓄,tot is the overall reservoir storage capacity matrix of cascade reservoirs over the years; 4.3) Statistically count the maximum overall reservoir storage capacity of the cascade reservoirs in all calculation periods of the current year year by year, and obtain the cascade reservoir maximum overall reservoir storage capacity matrix Among them, is the maximum overall reservoir storage volume of the cascade reservoir in all calculation periods within the mth year; 4.4) Based on the maximum overall storage reservoir capacity of the cascade reservoirs, obtain year by year the minimum storage requirement capacity for all calculation periods within the current water storage scheduling period of the cascade reservoirs, so as to obtain the minimum storage requirement capacity matrix of the cascade reservoirs: Among them, is the matrix of the minimum storage capacity to be reserved for cascade reservoirs; V i,nwl is the storage capacity at the normal pool level of reservoir i; is the annual minimum storage capacity to be reserved in all calculation periods within the m-th year of cascade reservoirs.

6. The evaluation method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Step 5) includes: 5.1) Characterize the probability distribution of the annual minimum storage requirement capacity of the cascade reservoirs through the probability density distribution function; 5.2) According to the elements of the annual minimum storage requirement capacity matrix of the cascade reservoirs over the years, calculate the parameters of the probability density distribution function; 5.3) Determine the distribution function of the annual minimum storage capacity to be reserved for the cascade reservoirs based on the said parameters 7. The evaluation method according to claim 6, wherein: The probability density distribution function is obtained through the Pearson type III distribution curve; the parameters of the probability density distribution function are calculated by the weight function method or the least squares estimation method.

8. The evaluation method according to any one of claims 1 to 7, characterized in that: Step 6) includes: 6.1) Introduce frequency indices P1, P2, …, P l-1 , P l , and have 0 < P1 < P2 < … < P l-1 < P l < 1; where l is the number of frequency indices; 6.2) Derive the storage capacity to be reserved corresponding to different frequency indices according to the distribution function: In the formula, represents the storage capacity to be reserved for the cascade reservoir with a frequency of P1, and so on for others; 6.3) Construct an evaluation system for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs based on the storage capacity to be reserved corresponding to different frequency indices; by obtaining the storage capacity to be reserved of the cascade reservoirs under actual conditions and comparing it with the storage capacity to be reserved at all levels in the evaluation system for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs, the hierarchical evaluation of the water storage level of cascade reservoirs can be realized.

9. The evaluation method according to claim 8, wherein: In the evaluation system for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs, l = 4, and the overall water storage situation is classified into good, relatively good, average, relatively poor, and poor: If then the overall water storage situation is good; If then the overall water storage situation is relatively good; If the overall water storage situation is average; If the overall water storage situation is poor; If the overall water storage situation is poor.

10. The evaluation method according to claim 8, characterized in that: l = 4, P1 = 0.1, P2 = 0.2, P3 = 0.5, P4 = 0.

8.

11. An evaluation system for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs, which is used to implement the evaluation method for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs described in any one of claims 1 to 10, characterized in that: It includes: A data storage module for storing basic information related to cascade reservoirs; A module for obtaining an evaluation index system for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs, which is used to construct an evaluation index system for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs based on the basic information stored in the data storage module; An evaluation module for evaluating and classifying the water storage level of cascade reservoirs based on the evaluation index system for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs.

12. A method for regulating and storing water in cascade reservoirs, characterized in that: It includes: a) Evaluate and classify the water storage level of cascade reservoirs by using the evaluation method described in any one of claims 1 to 10; b) According to the evaluation results and the water storage situation during the extended period, propose a guiding strategy for coordinating power generation and water storage in cascade reservoirs.

13. The cascade reservoir storage operation method according to claim 12, characterized in that: The guiding strategy includes: If the overall water storage situation level is poor, according to the predicted incoming water during the extended period, reduce the power generation flow of the cascade reservoirs and increase water storage to make the water storage situation level reach above average; If the overall water storage situation level is relatively poor, according to the predicted incoming water during the extended period, if the predicted incoming water is relatively abundant, reduce the power generation flow of the cascade reservoirs and increase water storage to make the water storage situation level reach good; if the predicted incoming water is average or scarce, reduce the power generation flow of the cascade reservoirs and increase water storage to make the water storage situation level reach above average; If the overall water storage situation level is average, according to the predicted incoming water during the extended period, if the predicted incoming water is relatively abundant, reduce the power generation flow of the cascade reservoirs and increase water storage to make the water storage situation level reach good; if the predicted incoming water is average or scarce, reduce the power generation flow of the cascade reservoirs and increase water storage to make the water storage situation level reach above relatively good; If the overall water storage situation level is good or relatively good, increase the power generation flow of the cascade reservoirs and maintain the water storage situation of the cascade reservoirs at the current level.

14. A cascade reservoir water storage scheduling system for implementing the cascade reservoir water storage scheduling method according to claim 12 or 13, characterized in that: It includes: An evaluation module for evaluating and classifying the water storage level of cascade reservoirs; A strategy output module for obtaining and outputting a guiding strategy for coordinating power generation and water storage in cascade reservoirs based on the classification results of the evaluation module.

15. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The computer-readable storage medium stores computer instructions, and the computer instructions are used to cause a computer to execute the evaluation method for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs described in any one of claims 1 to 10 or the water storage scheduling method for cascade reservoirs described in claim 12 or 13.

16. An electronic device, characterized in that: It includes: A memory and a processor, which are communicatively connected to each other. The memory stores computer instructions, and the processor executes the computer instructions to execute the evaluation method for the water storage level of cascade reservoirs according to any one of claims 1 to 10 or the water storage scheduling method for cascade reservoirs according to claim 12 or 13.

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